1 00:00:15,370 --> 00:00:23,250 Speaker 1: Pushkin. I opened the wrapping paper hurriedly with nervous hands, 2 00:00:23,290 --> 00:00:26,450 Speaker 1: excited to get at the gift inside. Little did I know, 3 00:00:27,210 --> 00:00:32,210 Speaker 1: disaster was about to enter my previously happy childhood. It 4 00:00:32,290 --> 00:00:35,290 Speaker 1: wasn't a disaster visited on mean or my family. It 5 00:00:35,330 --> 00:00:38,450 Speaker 1: was a catalog of disasters for everyone else. For the 6 00:00:38,530 --> 00:00:42,290 Speaker 1: gift was a book, and it was titled, in bold 7 00:00:42,370 --> 00:00:46,530 Speaker 1: letters on a blood red background, the World's Greatest Mistakes. 8 00:00:47,570 --> 00:00:50,570 Speaker 1: The stories were set out like a trashy and exciting 9 00:00:50,610 --> 00:00:54,930 Speaker 1: tabloid newspaper. Some were absurd, like the bride who accidentally 10 00:00:54,930 --> 00:00:58,370 Speaker 1: married the best man. Some of them were famous tragedies, 11 00:00:58,530 --> 00:01:02,850 Speaker 1: the Titanic slipping beneath the icy sea, funny or sad. 12 00:01:03,330 --> 00:01:06,490 Speaker 1: All of them fascinated me, and I realized something that 13 00:01:06,530 --> 00:01:10,970 Speaker 1: has guided me throughout my life. From other people's mistakes 14 00:01:11,490 --> 00:01:14,050 Speaker 1: is a lot less painful than learning from your own. 15 00:01:15,330 --> 00:01:18,210 Speaker 1: My name is Tim Harford. Some people call me the 16 00:01:18,370 --> 00:01:23,090 Speaker 1: undercover Economist. I use scientific ideas to help people think 17 00:01:23,210 --> 00:01:27,170 Speaker 1: more clearly about the world in my books, my ted Talks, 18 00:01:27,290 --> 00:01:30,370 Speaker 1: my BBC shows, and my column for the Financial Times. 19 00:01:31,610 --> 00:01:34,570 Speaker 1: That may sound all very grown up, but part of 20 00:01:34,610 --> 00:01:39,010 Speaker 1: me is that little boy who loved stories of catastrophe, mistake, 21 00:01:39,370 --> 00:01:44,330 Speaker 1: and mayhem. So I still seek out and collect such stories. 22 00:01:44,890 --> 00:01:48,210 Speaker 1: But now I probe the details. I challenge the Orthodox 23 00:01:48,330 --> 00:01:51,690 Speaker 1: view and look for the root causes and ponder how 24 00:01:51,810 --> 00:01:55,890 Speaker 1: disaster could have been prevented. In short, I look for 25 00:01:55,930 --> 00:01:59,450 Speaker 1: the painless lessons they can teach me. And now I 26 00:01:59,530 --> 00:02:02,730 Speaker 1: want to share some of these cautionary tales with you too. 27 00:02:06,170 --> 00:02:10,850 Speaker 1: Each story has a moral, each story is true, and 28 00:02:10,970 --> 00:02:14,690 Speaker 1: each story, if you're not careful, could happen to you. 29 00:02:15,890 --> 00:02:32,130 Speaker 1: So gather closer and I'll begin. We pray thee Lord, 30 00:02:32,770 --> 00:02:36,130 Speaker 1: not that rex should happen, but that if any Rex 31 00:02:36,650 --> 00:02:40,290 Speaker 1: do happen, thou wilt guide them to the Silly Isles 32 00:02:40,450 --> 00:02:46,010 Speaker 1: for the benefit of the poor inhabitants. That's an old 33 00:02:46,170 --> 00:02:49,690 Speaker 1: prayer from the Isles of Scilly. The isles are just 34 00:02:49,850 --> 00:02:53,330 Speaker 1: off the coast of Cornwall, the southwest tip of Great Britain, 35 00:02:53,970 --> 00:02:57,970 Speaker 1: and that prayer has been answered many times. The rocks 36 00:02:58,050 --> 00:03:02,170 Speaker 1: around the islands have a fearsome reputation and it's well earned. 37 00:03:03,090 --> 00:03:06,810 Speaker 1: One autumn night in seventeen oh seven, the Royal Navy 38 00:03:06,850 --> 00:03:10,290 Speaker 1: lost its way in a storm. The flag ship HMS 39 00:03:10,370 --> 00:03:14,930 Speaker 1: Association struck a rock and went down. In minutes, eight 40 00:03:15,250 --> 00:03:19,730 Speaker 1: hundred men drowned behind it. HMS Saint George hit the 41 00:03:19,770 --> 00:03:23,450 Speaker 1: rocks and became stuck. So did HMS Phoenix, so did 42 00:03:23,570 --> 00:03:29,330 Speaker 1: HMS Firebrow. HMS Romney lost her entire crew. HMS Eagle 43 00:03:29,770 --> 00:03:33,450 Speaker 1: was shattered on the cruel stone. Hundreds more sailors died. 44 00:03:34,210 --> 00:03:38,010 Speaker 1: That Dreadful Night was one of the worst disasters in 45 00:03:38,090 --> 00:03:47,290 Speaker 1: the history of the British Navy. Local legend has it 46 00:03:47,690 --> 00:03:51,690 Speaker 1: that there was one notable survivor, that the Commander in 47 00:03:51,810 --> 00:03:55,890 Speaker 1: Chief of the British Fleets, Sir Cloudsley Shovel, was washed 48 00:03:55,930 --> 00:03:58,570 Speaker 1: up on the beaches of the Aisles of Scilly, but 49 00:03:58,770 --> 00:04:03,130 Speaker 1: was strangled by a local woman who fancied wearing his 50 00:04:03,290 --> 00:04:07,290 Speaker 1: emerald ring herself if she had been praying the old 51 00:04:07,410 --> 00:04:14,170 Speaker 1: prayer God or the devil had been listening. It is 52 00:04:14,210 --> 00:04:17,250 Speaker 1: a dark tale, but the story I shall tell you 53 00:04:17,330 --> 00:04:23,930 Speaker 1: to day is a far stranger one. It was some 54 00:04:24,090 --> 00:04:29,530 Speaker 1: time after dawn on Saturday March the eighteenth, nineteen sixty seven. 55 00:04:31,610 --> 00:04:35,970 Speaker 1: Martyr Christie was a langoustier, a French lobster boat fishing 56 00:04:36,010 --> 00:04:39,170 Speaker 1: for crayfish and crab between the mainland and the Isles 57 00:04:39,170 --> 00:04:43,290 Speaker 1: of Scilly. Twenty one miles further west on deck was 58 00:04:43,370 --> 00:04:47,890 Speaker 1: Captain guy Folich, another langoustier, was near by, both of 59 00:04:47,930 --> 00:04:51,170 Speaker 1: them enjoying rich pickings. A few hundred yards north of 60 00:04:51,210 --> 00:04:55,210 Speaker 1: the Seven Stones. The seven Stones make up a vicious 61 00:04:55,290 --> 00:04:57,930 Speaker 1: reef about one third of the way between the Isles 62 00:04:57,970 --> 00:05:02,370 Speaker 1: of Scilly and the mainland. At low tide, the unyielding 63 00:05:02,450 --> 00:05:05,850 Speaker 1: rocks are visible, but even at high tide there marked 64 00:05:05,890 --> 00:05:10,770 Speaker 1: by a lighthouse vessel warning ships to stay away. Guifolich 65 00:05:11,090 --> 00:05:14,490 Speaker 1: looked up from his lobster lions to see an unexpected sight, 66 00:05:15,250 --> 00:05:19,170 Speaker 1: a vast black hull coming over the horizon from an 67 00:05:19,210 --> 00:05:24,010 Speaker 1: unusual direction. He was surprised. A major vessel in that 68 00:05:24,050 --> 00:05:27,730 Speaker 1: position would usually have passed outside of the Aisles of Silly, 69 00:05:28,290 --> 00:05:32,970 Speaker 1: rather than squeezing between them and the mainland. True, a 70 00:05:33,050 --> 00:05:35,690 Speaker 1: big ship could come between the Aisles of Silly and 71 00:05:35,690 --> 00:05:38,770 Speaker 1: the mainland, passing on either side of the Seven Stones, 72 00:05:39,330 --> 00:05:41,610 Speaker 1: but it would be a little on the tight side. 73 00:05:42,330 --> 00:05:47,930 Speaker 1: And this ship, a supertanker, was very big. Indeed, in fact, 74 00:05:48,090 --> 00:05:53,850 Speaker 1: it was the thirteenth biggest ship in the world. On 75 00:05:53,890 --> 00:05:56,850 Speaker 1: the lighthouse vessel, the two seamen on watch saw the 76 00:05:56,890 --> 00:06:00,090 Speaker 1: tanker approaching too. Have you seen this? Have you? Yeah? 77 00:06:00,690 --> 00:06:05,170 Speaker 1: Look at that big baster coming up. Guifolich could see 78 00:06:05,170 --> 00:06:09,730 Speaker 1: the huge ship coming straight towards him as he fished kayak, 79 00:06:11,210 --> 00:06:14,770 Speaker 1: but he wasn't worried. In between him and the oncoming 80 00:06:14,850 --> 00:06:19,290 Speaker 1: juggernaut were the seven Stones. He later said, I was 81 00:06:19,330 --> 00:06:22,490 Speaker 1: sure that before ever eating us, you would go onto 82 00:06:22,570 --> 00:06:27,410 Speaker 1: the rucks. He yelled to his men, stop work, You're 83 00:06:27,410 --> 00:06:31,850 Speaker 1: going to see something extraordinary. All seven of them lined 84 00:06:31,970 --> 00:06:34,490 Speaker 1: up on the rail of Marta Christie to watch the 85 00:06:34,570 --> 00:06:42,210 Speaker 1: oil tanker bear closer and closer, four miles, three miles. 86 00:06:43,050 --> 00:06:46,450 Speaker 1: Folich was sure it was doomed. It just wasn't possible 87 00:06:46,490 --> 00:06:50,570 Speaker 1: to turn a super tanker that quickly, was it? Actually? 88 00:06:50,970 --> 00:06:56,770 Speaker 1: Folich wasn't quite right. The tanker, whose name was Torry Canyon, 89 00:06:57,290 --> 00:07:01,250 Speaker 1: did still have room to turn. This wasn't a storm 90 00:07:01,330 --> 00:07:05,370 Speaker 1: tossed fleet of sailing ships fumbling through the darkness. The 91 00:07:05,450 --> 00:07:09,690 Speaker 1: weather was good, the visibility was good. Tory or Canyon 92 00:07:09,770 --> 00:07:13,290 Speaker 1: was a superb ship, in fine working order and armed 93 00:07:13,290 --> 00:07:17,650 Speaker 1: with radar. The seven Stones were clearly marked on every chart, 94 00:07:17,770 --> 00:07:20,090 Speaker 1: as well as being identified by the position of the 95 00:07:20,210 --> 00:07:28,770 Speaker 1: lighthouse vessel but Torry Canyon still wasn't turning. Gather close 96 00:07:29,490 --> 00:07:43,810 Speaker 1: and listened to my cautionary tail. Nobody knew it at 97 00:07:43,810 --> 00:07:46,650 Speaker 1: the time, but the trouble all started with a radio 98 00:07:46,730 --> 00:07:50,610 Speaker 1: message from Milford Haven, the harbor towards which Torry Canyon 99 00:07:50,690 --> 00:07:54,890 Speaker 1: was sailing. Milford Haven is a major UK port, and 100 00:07:54,970 --> 00:07:56,890 Speaker 1: the thing you need to know about ports in the 101 00:07:57,010 --> 00:08:00,130 Speaker 1: UK is that the difference between high tide and low 102 00:08:00,170 --> 00:08:03,850 Speaker 1: tide can be enormous. What's more, there are high tides 103 00:08:03,850 --> 00:08:08,330 Speaker 1: and high tides, some are higher than others. The message 104 00:08:08,330 --> 00:08:13,650 Speaker 1: from Milford Avon was simple enough. Torry Canyon needed to hurry. 105 00:08:13,690 --> 00:08:16,930 Speaker 1: If the ship didn't arrive by eleven pm on Saturday 106 00:08:16,970 --> 00:08:21,170 Speaker 1: evening March the eighteenth, nineteen sixty seven, it would miss 107 00:08:21,210 --> 00:08:24,010 Speaker 1: the extra high tide and wouldn't be able to slip 108 00:08:24,050 --> 00:08:27,130 Speaker 1: into the harbor and dock. It would then have to 109 00:08:27,210 --> 00:08:31,370 Speaker 1: wait another six days before the tide would once more 110 00:08:31,410 --> 00:08:35,370 Speaker 1: be high enough. Missing the eleven pm deadline would mean 111 00:08:35,410 --> 00:08:41,730 Speaker 1: a very expensive delay. That news put Captain Pastrengo Rujati 112 00:08:41,850 --> 00:08:44,850 Speaker 1: under pressure. He had no more than one or two 113 00:08:44,970 --> 00:08:49,010 Speaker 1: hours margin, not a lot, but Rujahti had coped with 114 00:08:49,050 --> 00:08:52,450 Speaker 1: worse He'd been a navigator on an Italian submarine during 115 00:08:52,490 --> 00:08:55,530 Speaker 1: the war, had survived a German prison camp, and had 116 00:08:55,530 --> 00:09:00,090 Speaker 1: been commanding oil tankers for twenty years. Captain Rujati was 117 00:09:00,250 --> 00:09:03,530 Speaker 1: in many ways a genial fellow, chatty and hospitable. He 118 00:09:03,650 --> 00:09:06,690 Speaker 1: liked to eat good food, but insisted he shouldn't be 119 00:09:06,730 --> 00:09:10,170 Speaker 1: served anything that wasn't available to his crew. As a result, 120 00:09:10,450 --> 00:09:14,210 Speaker 1: the men on Torry Canyon ate very well. But Rugiahty 121 00:09:14,330 --> 00:09:17,330 Speaker 1: was also a detailsman who kept a close eye on 122 00:09:17,370 --> 00:09:21,490 Speaker 1: his officers. Ruggiastie was extremely conscientious. He was a man 123 00:09:21,530 --> 00:09:26,010 Speaker 1: who wanted to know absolutely everything. Perhaps because of that, 124 00:09:26,450 --> 00:09:29,570 Speaker 1: Ruggierhty stayed up late on the Friday night before landfall, 125 00:09:29,810 --> 00:09:32,970 Speaker 1: preparing the paperwork for when they docked. It was only 126 00:09:33,010 --> 00:09:35,530 Speaker 1: at half past three in the morning that he went 127 00:09:35,570 --> 00:09:38,490 Speaker 1: to bed, leaving instructions that he was to be awakened 128 00:09:38,570 --> 00:09:43,050 Speaker 1: first thing when the Aisles of Silly were sighted. It 129 00:09:43,090 --> 00:09:45,370 Speaker 1: was half past six in the morning when the Aisles 130 00:09:45,410 --> 00:09:48,650 Speaker 1: of Scilly appeared on the radar about thirty five miles away. 131 00:09:49,490 --> 00:09:53,490 Speaker 1: First Officer Silvano Bonfiglio was on duty, and the position 132 00:09:53,530 --> 00:09:56,090 Speaker 1: of the ship relative to the isles of Scilly was 133 00:09:56,130 --> 00:10:01,090 Speaker 1: an unpleasant surprise. Torry Canyon, plowing through the night across 134 00:10:01,130 --> 00:10:04,650 Speaker 1: the ocean had been pushed off its intended course by 135 00:10:04,650 --> 00:10:08,610 Speaker 1: the current and the winds. It was now headed between 136 00:10:08,690 --> 00:10:14,170 Speaker 1: the islands and the mainland. Bonfilio immediately changed course, steering 137 00:10:14,250 --> 00:10:17,770 Speaker 1: away from the channel, figuring that Captain Ruggiati had intended 138 00:10:17,810 --> 00:10:21,650 Speaker 1: to pass outside of the islands, but he hedged his bets. 139 00:10:22,490 --> 00:10:25,690 Speaker 1: Rather than heading out to sea or closer to the mainland, 140 00:10:25,970 --> 00:10:29,970 Speaker 1: he was bearing straight towards the aisles of Scilly. He 141 00:10:30,050 --> 00:10:34,450 Speaker 1: then woke up Captain Ruggiati. Rugiati was angry. Was it 142 00:10:34,490 --> 00:10:38,130 Speaker 1: because Bonfilio had changed course without checking? Was it because 143 00:10:38,130 --> 00:10:41,130 Speaker 1: the new course was neither one thing nor another? Or 144 00:10:41,250 --> 00:10:44,970 Speaker 1: was he just sleep deprived? Will our original heaving of 145 00:10:45,090 --> 00:10:48,810 Speaker 1: eighteen degrees be free of the cities? Yes? Then continue 146 00:10:48,850 --> 00:10:51,890 Speaker 1: on course eighteen degrees. I intend to pass to the 147 00:10:51,930 --> 00:10:56,730 Speaker 1: starboard of the Silly Isles. When Filio was so surprised, 148 00:10:56,970 --> 00:10:59,490 Speaker 1: he had to check that it understood the order, which 149 00:10:59,530 --> 00:11:04,970 Speaker 1: irritated Ruggiati. Still. Further still, a maneuver shouldn't be too perilous. 150 00:11:06,490 --> 00:11:09,370 Speaker 1: It was perfectly possible to get even a large ship through. 151 00:11:14,090 --> 00:11:17,290 Speaker 1: The standard manual for navigating the waters around the coast 152 00:11:17,330 --> 00:11:21,010 Speaker 1: of the British Isles is called the Channel Pilot. If 153 00:11:21,050 --> 00:11:24,170 Speaker 1: Captain Rugiati had consulted a copy, here's what it would 154 00:11:24,210 --> 00:11:27,210 Speaker 1: have said. The actual width of the channel between the 155 00:11:27,210 --> 00:11:30,210 Speaker 1: nearest of the Scilly Islands and Land's End is twenty 156 00:11:30,210 --> 00:11:33,010 Speaker 1: one miles, but as the route taken by all large 157 00:11:33,090 --> 00:11:36,370 Speaker 1: vessels should be eastward of seven Stones light vessel, the 158 00:11:36,530 --> 00:11:40,410 Speaker 1: navigable channel can only be considered as twelve miles wide. 159 00:11:40,970 --> 00:11:43,970 Speaker 1: The lights render the passage perfectly simple at night as 160 00:11:43,970 --> 00:11:47,490 Speaker 1: well as by day in ordinarily clear weather. But as 161 00:11:47,530 --> 00:11:49,450 Speaker 1: there is no part of the coast of England more 162 00:11:49,490 --> 00:11:53,890 Speaker 1: subject to sudden changes of weather, the greatest vigilance is necessary, 163 00:11:54,250 --> 00:11:57,210 Speaker 1: and a vessel's position, even in the clearest weather, should 164 00:11:57,210 --> 00:12:01,530 Speaker 1: be checked by cross bearings at short intervals. But Captain 165 00:12:01,610 --> 00:12:04,850 Speaker 1: Rugiati alas did not have a copy of the Channel 166 00:12:04,890 --> 00:12:09,610 Speaker 1: Pilot on board, and so he missed two important pieces 167 00:12:09,650 --> 00:12:13,210 Speaker 1: of wisdom. First, if you want to go between the 168 00:12:13,250 --> 00:12:18,970 Speaker 1: aisles of Scilly and the mainland, be careful. Second, pass 169 00:12:19,050 --> 00:12:22,370 Speaker 1: between the mainland and the Seven Stones. There is an 170 00:12:22,410 --> 00:12:24,850 Speaker 1: alternative route between the Seven stones and the aisles of 171 00:12:24,890 --> 00:12:28,330 Speaker 1: Scilly themselves. But the channel pilot doesn't mention it because 172 00:12:28,370 --> 00:12:32,170 Speaker 1: it's narrower, six and a half miles wide rather than twelve. 173 00:12:32,850 --> 00:12:35,010 Speaker 1: Why take the narrower channel when you could take the 174 00:12:35,010 --> 00:12:38,650 Speaker 1: broader one. Of course, you could still fit an oil 175 00:12:38,690 --> 00:12:42,090 Speaker 1: tanker through the narrower gap, even an oil tanker that's 176 00:12:42,130 --> 00:12:45,010 Speaker 1: nearly as big as the Chrysler building, but you'd be 177 00:12:45,010 --> 00:12:49,450 Speaker 1: cutting it close. You'd be better, and nothing went wrong. 178 00:13:06,570 --> 00:13:10,810 Speaker 1: Inertia is a powerful thing. That's true for an oil 179 00:13:10,850 --> 00:13:14,170 Speaker 1: tanker the size of Torry Canyon, which needed nearly five 180 00:13:14,290 --> 00:13:17,290 Speaker 1: minutes to make a ninety degree turn, during which time 181 00:13:17,530 --> 00:13:20,330 Speaker 1: it would travel a mile and a half at cruising speed. 182 00:13:21,170 --> 00:13:25,210 Speaker 1: But inertia is a powerful thing for humans too. We 183 00:13:25,370 --> 00:13:30,130 Speaker 1: also sometimes struggle to change course. Psychologists have identified a 184 00:13:30,210 --> 00:13:34,810 Speaker 1: strong bias towards the status quo. For example, whether we 185 00:13:34,850 --> 00:13:37,810 Speaker 1: sign up for a workplace pension plan or not seems 186 00:13:37,850 --> 00:13:41,090 Speaker 1: to depend on whatever the status quo is. If the 187 00:13:41,170 --> 00:13:44,250 Speaker 1: default option is to sign up, we sign up. If 188 00:13:44,250 --> 00:13:47,650 Speaker 1: the default is to stay out, we stay out. As 189 00:13:47,690 --> 00:13:53,930 Speaker 1: I say, inertia is powerful. Psychologists who study accidents have 190 00:13:53,970 --> 00:13:57,650 Speaker 1: a name for a particular form of inertia. They call 191 00:13:57,690 --> 00:14:04,050 Speaker 1: it plan continuation bias. It's best known in aviation. Pilots 192 00:14:04,210 --> 00:14:06,610 Speaker 1: form a plan and then are reluctant to change it, 193 00:14:07,130 --> 00:14:12,290 Speaker 1: even if the circumstances suggest they should. The pilots themselves 194 00:14:12,330 --> 00:14:17,050 Speaker 1: have another name for it, get their itis. The classic 195 00:14:17,090 --> 00:14:19,850 Speaker 1: form of get their itis is an approach to an 196 00:14:19,850 --> 00:14:23,650 Speaker 1: airfield with a storm coming in. If you land well 197 00:14:23,690 --> 00:14:27,330 Speaker 1: before the storm arrives, no problem. If the storm arrives 198 00:14:27,410 --> 00:14:31,170 Speaker 1: before you land, that's not a crisis either. It's a hassle. 199 00:14:31,410 --> 00:14:34,050 Speaker 1: You have to divert to another airfield with all the delay, 200 00:14:34,290 --> 00:14:37,930 Speaker 1: expense and annoyance that implies, But you do it because 201 00:14:37,970 --> 00:14:43,250 Speaker 1: you don't want to fly into a dangerous storm. The 202 00:14:43,370 --> 00:14:47,170 Speaker 1: risk comes, and the storm is closing in, but there's 203 00:14:47,170 --> 00:14:51,210 Speaker 1: still a window of opportunity to land. The landing strip 204 00:14:51,290 --> 00:14:55,290 Speaker 1: is so close, just minutes away. Tunnel vision sets in, 205 00:14:55,690 --> 00:14:58,890 Speaker 1: people start to hurry, Margins for error are stripped away. 206 00:14:59,770 --> 00:15:03,130 Speaker 1: Usually there's no harm done. The pilot lands just as 207 00:15:03,130 --> 00:15:07,170 Speaker 1: the storm rips across. The congratulates himself or herself for 208 00:15:07,330 --> 00:15:12,050 Speaker 1: keeping cool and showing gill under pressure, But sometimes the 209 00:15:12,130 --> 00:15:17,210 Speaker 1: consequences are more serious. One study of get their itis 210 00:15:17,250 --> 00:15:20,850 Speaker 1: looked at twenty occasions when thunderstorms had closed in at 211 00:15:20,890 --> 00:15:27,090 Speaker 1: Hartsfield Jackson, Atlanta's major international airport, Again and again, pilots 212 00:15:27,130 --> 00:15:31,170 Speaker 1: decided to chant a risky landing, risky in the sense 213 00:15:31,210 --> 00:15:35,410 Speaker 1: that the Federal Aviation Administration's official guidelines would have advised 214 00:15:35,410 --> 00:15:39,650 Speaker 1: against it. One plane after another would land under ever 215 00:15:39,850 --> 00:15:45,730 Speaker 1: more perilous conditions, until eventually one flight crew would resist 216 00:15:45,730 --> 00:15:49,730 Speaker 1: the inertia and decide to divert elsewhere. At that point, 217 00:15:50,170 --> 00:15:54,970 Speaker 1: every subsequent plane would also decide to divert. The madness 218 00:15:55,090 --> 00:15:58,850 Speaker 1: only ended when someone set an example and changed the plan. 219 00:16:05,330 --> 00:16:08,410 Speaker 1: I'm no airline pilots, but I sometimes suffer from get 220 00:16:08,410 --> 00:16:11,090 Speaker 1: their itis in my own life. Perhaps you do too. 221 00:16:11,730 --> 00:16:15,010 Speaker 1: For me, it tends to emerge when dealing with family logistics. 222 00:16:15,210 --> 00:16:17,650 Speaker 1: I've got three children at two different schools, and they 223 00:16:17,650 --> 00:16:20,210 Speaker 1: all have their hobbies and sports and all usual things. 224 00:16:21,010 --> 00:16:23,210 Speaker 1: I'm sure many parents will be familiar with the plate 225 00:16:23,290 --> 00:16:27,330 Speaker 1: spinning that this sometimes involves. But then something goes wrong. 226 00:16:27,810 --> 00:16:30,090 Speaker 1: The cars in the shop to be repaired, No problem, 227 00:16:30,170 --> 00:16:33,010 Speaker 1: we can bike instead. Then someone needs to be at 228 00:16:33,050 --> 00:16:35,850 Speaker 1: home to meet the plumber. We make contingency plans and 229 00:16:35,930 --> 00:16:38,090 Speaker 1: they seem like they'll be fine, but then a fresh 230 00:16:38,250 --> 00:16:42,610 Speaker 1: errand appears, or a babysitter calls to cancel. As complications mount, 231 00:16:42,770 --> 00:16:46,610 Speaker 1: the plan starts to resemble an increasingly precarious assembly of 232 00:16:46,730 --> 00:16:50,930 Speaker 1: stages and steps, lift swaps and rendezvous. It's a Rube 233 00:16:50,970 --> 00:16:55,730 Speaker 1: Goldberg fever dream of an itinerary. And then, if I'm lucky, 234 00:16:56,250 --> 00:16:59,410 Speaker 1: either I or my wife will find enough headspace to 235 00:16:59,450 --> 00:17:06,250 Speaker 1: say this is crazy. Someone's going to have to skip 236 00:17:06,290 --> 00:17:08,890 Speaker 1: dance class tonight. We'll call the plumber to see if 237 00:17:08,890 --> 00:17:13,010 Speaker 1: to morrows okay. Instead, will replace the entire time and 238 00:17:13,130 --> 00:17:18,730 Speaker 1: motion nightmare with something radically simpler. But that's hard to 239 00:17:18,770 --> 00:17:23,290 Speaker 1: do because of the inertia, because of the plan continuation 240 00:17:23,370 --> 00:17:26,970 Speaker 1: by us, and the more the pressure mounts, the harder 241 00:17:27,010 --> 00:17:31,330 Speaker 1: it is to see clearly just how precarious everything has become. 242 00:17:32,050 --> 00:17:35,330 Speaker 1: I become so fixated on executing the plan that I 243 00:17:35,410 --> 00:17:38,890 Speaker 1: don't have a moment to realize that it's now a 244 00:17:39,050 --> 00:17:46,010 Speaker 1: stupid plan. Captain Rugiati was under pressure to reach the 245 00:17:46,090 --> 00:17:48,890 Speaker 1: harbor at Milford Haven in time, and had been woken 246 00:17:48,970 --> 00:17:51,730 Speaker 1: with the unwelcome news that the ship was off course 247 00:17:52,010 --> 00:17:55,970 Speaker 1: too far towards the mainland. If he'd stopped to think 248 00:17:56,770 --> 00:17:59,530 Speaker 1: or to talk to his officers, he would have realized 249 00:17:59,770 --> 00:18:02,450 Speaker 1: that he still had time to turn and go the 250 00:18:02,610 --> 00:18:06,770 Speaker 1: long way round outside the Aisles of Scilly. He only 251 00:18:06,810 --> 00:18:09,970 Speaker 1: had an hour or two to spare, but brief calculation 252 00:18:10,090 --> 00:18:13,010 Speaker 1: would have revealed that the detour would have cost just 253 00:18:13,410 --> 00:18:18,010 Speaker 1: twenty nine minutes. Yet he didn't pause to reflect. He 254 00:18:18,130 --> 00:18:20,850 Speaker 1: snapped at Bonfilio and ordered him to stick to the 255 00:18:20,850 --> 00:18:23,930 Speaker 1: course that would now cut inside the Aisles of Scilly. 256 00:18:24,770 --> 00:18:27,370 Speaker 1: Nor did he reflect that since his ship had already 257 00:18:27,410 --> 00:18:30,730 Speaker 1: been deflected by the current and the wind, those forces 258 00:18:30,810 --> 00:18:34,090 Speaker 1: might well continue to work upon the ship, moving it 259 00:18:34,170 --> 00:18:38,210 Speaker 1: out of its intended position. Under time pressure, he began 260 00:18:38,250 --> 00:18:42,650 Speaker 1: to suffer get their itis. His plan was risky, and 261 00:18:42,770 --> 00:18:50,450 Speaker 1: his plan was not about to change. At eight eighteen am, 262 00:18:50,490 --> 00:18:54,490 Speaker 1: a junior officer calculated their position, this being the days 263 00:18:54,490 --> 00:18:57,210 Speaker 1: before GPS. He did it with the ship's charts, a 264 00:18:57,290 --> 00:19:01,810 Speaker 1: compass bearing, and a radar reading old school. But the 265 00:19:01,890 --> 00:19:05,530 Speaker 1: inexperienced officer was anxious. He wasn't convinced he'd got the 266 00:19:05,530 --> 00:19:10,370 Speaker 1: ship's position exactly right, but he didn't speak up. After all, 267 00:19:10,410 --> 00:19:12,530 Speaker 1: there'd be another chance to take a fix in ten 268 00:19:12,570 --> 00:19:17,730 Speaker 1: minutes or so. Captain Ruggiaty wasn't speaking up either, as 269 00:19:17,730 --> 00:19:21,650 Speaker 1: the ship steamed north at sixteen knots nearly twenty miles 270 00:19:21,690 --> 00:19:24,810 Speaker 1: an hour. He had already decided which course he would take, 271 00:19:25,610 --> 00:19:28,450 Speaker 1: but he hadn't told his crew, which meant that they 272 00:19:28,570 --> 00:19:31,370 Speaker 1: hadn't had a chance to comment, and they didn't feel 273 00:19:31,490 --> 00:19:36,410 Speaker 1: entitled to ask. Captain ruggati had actually decided to pass 274 00:19:36,610 --> 00:19:40,130 Speaker 1: through the narrow channel, which involved bending the ship's course 275 00:19:40,170 --> 00:19:45,170 Speaker 1: in a long, slow curve to the left. Why perhaps 276 00:19:45,250 --> 00:19:49,130 Speaker 1: because it was the most direct route, but mostly because, 277 00:19:49,810 --> 00:19:53,290 Speaker 1: well why not? To me? It was the same. But 278 00:19:53,490 --> 00:19:56,250 Speaker 1: should he not have taken just a few more minutes 279 00:19:56,290 --> 00:19:59,530 Speaker 1: to avoid the narrow route? That was never in my mind. 280 00:20:01,610 --> 00:20:05,610 Speaker 1: That's a revealing turn of phrase. Never in my mind, 281 00:20:06,130 --> 00:20:10,450 Speaker 1: Pastrenger Ruggiati didn't even consider the possibility of going through 282 00:20:10,490 --> 00:20:13,650 Speaker 1: the wider channel. And while that might seem strange to 283 00:20:13,730 --> 00:20:17,490 Speaker 1: you or me, it's a natural feature of plan continuation 284 00:20:17,570 --> 00:20:21,090 Speaker 1: by us. As the tunnel vision develops, we don't even 285 00:20:21,170 --> 00:20:24,490 Speaker 1: think about alternatives to our initial plan. We don't have 286 00:20:24,570 --> 00:20:43,930 Speaker 1: the bandwidth. We continue to plow on. In two thousand 287 00:20:43,930 --> 00:20:47,170 Speaker 1: and five, a young boy was rushed into a hospital 288 00:20:47,170 --> 00:20:51,250 Speaker 1: emergency room. He suffered from asthma, and he was in distress. 289 00:20:51,570 --> 00:20:55,210 Speaker 1: He was finding it harder to breathe and harder and harder, 290 00:20:55,450 --> 00:21:00,450 Speaker 1: and then his breathing stopped. The medical team quickly strapped 291 00:21:00,490 --> 00:21:03,370 Speaker 1: an oxygen mask on to the boy. That should have helped, 292 00:21:03,810 --> 00:21:08,050 Speaker 1: but instead his heart stopped beating. Two. There were eight 293 00:21:08,290 --> 00:21:10,850 Speaker 1: trained medical called professionals in the room, taking it in 294 00:21:10,890 --> 00:21:14,850 Speaker 1: turns to perform CPR on the boy. Still no pulse, 295 00:21:15,210 --> 00:21:21,370 Speaker 1: Still no breathing. The minutes ticked by a doctor slid 296 00:21:21,370 --> 00:21:24,090 Speaker 1: a breathing tube down the boy's throat. Thing's happening? Is 297 00:21:24,090 --> 00:21:27,330 Speaker 1: the tube in position? The tube's fine? I checked? Is 298 00:21:27,330 --> 00:21:30,770 Speaker 1: there any pulse? Still nothing? Let's take the breathing tube 299 00:21:30,770 --> 00:21:34,970 Speaker 1: out and try the airbag again. It's not helping. No, 300 00:21:35,170 --> 00:21:38,570 Speaker 1: it wasn't helping. And the reason it wasn't helping was 301 00:21:38,610 --> 00:21:42,490 Speaker 1: because the breathing apparatus was broken. It would have taken 302 00:21:42,570 --> 00:21:45,890 Speaker 1: a few seconds to check if any of the five 303 00:21:45,970 --> 00:21:50,250 Speaker 1: nurses or three doctors had thought to check, but they 304 00:21:50,290 --> 00:21:53,730 Speaker 1: didn't think, not until the boy had been deprived of 305 00:21:53,730 --> 00:22:01,010 Speaker 1: oxygen for ten minutes. Thankfully, this wasn't a tragedy. It 306 00:22:01,170 --> 00:22:04,450 Speaker 1: was a training exercise. Instead of a real boy, it 307 00:22:04,490 --> 00:22:06,490 Speaker 1: was a medical dummy that was lying on the bed 308 00:22:06,850 --> 00:22:11,210 Speaker 1: failing to produce a simulated pulse simulated respiration because the 309 00:22:11,330 --> 00:22:19,530 Speaker 1: medical team didn't step back and think. This training scenario 310 00:22:19,730 --> 00:22:23,770 Speaker 1: was conducted nineteen times and videos of the exercise were 311 00:22:23,810 --> 00:22:28,650 Speaker 1: studded by Marliss Christiansen, a professor of organizational behavior and 312 00:22:28,770 --> 00:22:34,330 Speaker 1: previously a doctor. Professor. Christiansen found that some medical teams 313 00:22:34,370 --> 00:22:37,850 Speaker 1: took just seconds to identify the problem with a breathing equipment. 314 00:22:38,130 --> 00:22:43,290 Speaker 1: This isn't working, it's broken. That's impressive, But perhaps more 315 00:22:43,370 --> 00:22:46,730 Speaker 1: impressive were the teams who started with the wrong theory 316 00:22:46,730 --> 00:22:49,690 Speaker 1: about the problem, but didn't get stuck on that idea. 317 00:22:49,970 --> 00:22:53,410 Speaker 1: They didn't fixate on one possibility or keep repeating the 318 00:22:53,450 --> 00:22:57,050 Speaker 1: same approach over and over again. They would talk through 319 00:22:57,130 --> 00:23:00,210 Speaker 1: what they were thinking and challenge themselves and each other. 320 00:23:00,650 --> 00:23:05,170 Speaker 1: They could change course, but not every team did that. 321 00:23:06,090 --> 00:23:09,770 Speaker 1: Many teams would hammer away at the same plan, regardless 322 00:23:09,770 --> 00:23:12,530 Speaker 1: of the signs that it wasn't going to work. They 323 00:23:12,610 --> 00:23:15,770 Speaker 1: didn't step back and think, they didn't talk things through, 324 00:23:16,410 --> 00:23:22,730 Speaker 1: they just kept going. Could Captain Rugiati avoid the same fate. 325 00:23:29,170 --> 00:23:32,930 Speaker 1: Captain Rugiati is now trying to curve his ship through 326 00:23:33,010 --> 00:23:36,250 Speaker 1: the narrower channel. He doesn't even have the full six 327 00:23:36,290 --> 00:23:39,250 Speaker 1: and a half miles to aim at because he's approaching 328 00:23:39,290 --> 00:23:43,250 Speaker 1: at an angle. He's left himself precious little margin for error. 329 00:23:43,770 --> 00:23:47,410 Speaker 1: As it is, Torry Canyon is heading straight for the 330 00:23:47,450 --> 00:23:52,490 Speaker 1: submerged rocks. At half past eight. As the slow, slow 331 00:23:52,610 --> 00:23:57,170 Speaker 1: turn begins, two fishing boats appear on the radar, the 332 00:23:57,250 --> 00:24:02,010 Speaker 1: two French langoustiers that are watching the oncoming supertanker with astonishment. 333 00:24:02,930 --> 00:24:06,330 Speaker 1: Rugiati had planned to keep turning, but now he has 334 00:24:06,370 --> 00:24:10,050 Speaker 1: to ensure he doesn't hit the boats and floats come 335 00:24:10,090 --> 00:24:12,770 Speaker 1: into view. There are a sign of fishing nets beneath 336 00:24:12,770 --> 00:24:16,890 Speaker 1: the surface. Torry Canyon can't possibly avoid them all and 337 00:24:17,050 --> 00:24:21,330 Speaker 1: slices through one set of nets. Captain Rugiati pauses his 338 00:24:21,410 --> 00:24:25,530 Speaker 1: turn in order not to shred the rest. He's now 339 00:24:25,610 --> 00:24:28,410 Speaker 1: heading very close to where he thinks the stones are, 340 00:24:28,730 --> 00:24:30,770 Speaker 1: but he still hopes to be able to resume his 341 00:24:30,890 --> 00:24:36,210 Speaker 1: turn after passing the nets. But meanwhile, all the while, 342 00:24:36,810 --> 00:24:42,050 Speaker 1: the current has been gently insistently pushing Torry Canyon closer 343 00:24:42,370 --> 00:24:46,970 Speaker 1: and closer to the seven Stones. At this point, Rugiati 344 00:24:47,130 --> 00:24:49,730 Speaker 1: seems to have woken up to the danger. He has 345 00:24:49,930 --> 00:24:54,050 Speaker 1: precious little room for maneuver. Rather than curving out of danger, 346 00:24:54,250 --> 00:24:57,850 Speaker 1: he's heading directly towards the Seven Stones. He was later 347 00:24:57,890 --> 00:24:59,930 Speaker 1: asked whether he would have been heading that way if 348 00:24:59,970 --> 00:25:03,370 Speaker 1: not for the fishing boats and their nets. No, only 349 00:25:03,410 --> 00:25:06,730 Speaker 1: a madman would have followed in northern course. Rugiati now 350 00:25:06,850 --> 00:25:10,090 Speaker 1: knows his heading is dangerous. Plan to go through the 351 00:25:10,210 --> 00:25:14,130 Speaker 1: narrow channel is being frustrated, but as the pressure rises, 352 00:25:14,330 --> 00:25:18,370 Speaker 1: he can't step back and form a better plan. Why 353 00:25:18,450 --> 00:25:21,490 Speaker 1: doesn't he slow down? Why doesn't he abandon his plan 354 00:25:21,610 --> 00:25:25,050 Speaker 1: to turn left into the channel and instead turned sharply 355 00:25:25,170 --> 00:25:28,810 Speaker 1: right into deep water. That was never in my mind. 356 00:25:29,610 --> 00:25:34,930 Speaker 1: Never When get their itis takes hold, there are a 357 00:25:34,970 --> 00:25:38,170 Speaker 1: lot of things that should be in our minds but aren't. 358 00:25:39,690 --> 00:25:43,090 Speaker 1: At eight thirty eight am, Captain Ruggiati takes a look 359 00:25:43,090 --> 00:25:47,330 Speaker 1: at the charts. His junior officer has just taken another bearing. 360 00:25:48,010 --> 00:25:50,890 Speaker 1: Ruggiati is an old hand. He can see at once 361 00:25:51,010 --> 00:25:54,210 Speaker 1: that it can't be right. The crosses marking the ship's 362 00:25:54,250 --> 00:25:58,290 Speaker 1: position should be at regular intervals, but they're not. One 363 00:25:58,330 --> 00:26:02,090 Speaker 1: of the bearings is wrong he doesn't know which. Maybe 364 00:26:02,090 --> 00:26:06,530 Speaker 1: they're both wrong. Captain Ruggiati doesn't know where he is. 365 00:26:07,690 --> 00:26:10,730 Speaker 1: The junior officer takes another bearing with the captain's help. 366 00:26:11,290 --> 00:26:13,810 Speaker 1: The new fix shows that the ship is closer to 367 00:26:13,850 --> 00:26:18,370 Speaker 1: the seven Stones than they're realized, less than three miles. Remember, 368 00:26:18,690 --> 00:26:21,330 Speaker 1: Torry Canyon takes a mile and a half to make 369 00:26:21,330 --> 00:26:26,210 Speaker 1: a ninety degree turn on his trawler. Watching with horror 370 00:26:26,810 --> 00:26:31,530 Speaker 1: Guy Foliage has already concluded that it's all over. Torry 371 00:26:31,570 --> 00:26:37,650 Speaker 1: Canyon can't possibly avoid the rocks. But he's wrong. There 372 00:26:37,970 --> 00:26:41,490 Speaker 1: is still time. There's still time to turn into deep water. 373 00:26:41,770 --> 00:26:44,610 Speaker 1: There's even still time to turn into the channel, which 374 00:26:44,650 --> 00:26:47,690 Speaker 1: is what Pastrengo Ujati has been trying to do for 375 00:26:47,730 --> 00:26:50,650 Speaker 1: the last four miles, and so, even though it doesn't 376 00:26:50,650 --> 00:26:53,890 Speaker 1: really make sense anymore, that's what he continues to try 377 00:26:53,930 --> 00:26:58,090 Speaker 1: to do. Houndsman can't do their wheel, Yes, Captain hard 378 00:26:58,130 --> 00:27:01,850 Speaker 1: to part god to three fifty, take her to three ft, 379 00:27:02,370 --> 00:27:05,690 Speaker 1: take her to three twenty. Ujiati is ordering an ever 380 00:27:05,850 --> 00:27:11,930 Speaker 1: tighter turn into the channel. Captain, Captain, the ship's off 381 00:27:11,970 --> 00:27:18,410 Speaker 1: turning even now, there's still time. If she's not turning, 382 00:27:18,450 --> 00:27:22,930 Speaker 1: Captain Rugiati needs to think, why isn't the ship turning. 383 00:27:23,610 --> 00:27:27,330 Speaker 1: Perhaps the fuel pumps controlling the rudder have broken. Rugiati 384 00:27:27,370 --> 00:27:30,130 Speaker 1: has seen that happen before. He tries to dial the 385 00:27:30,170 --> 00:27:33,930 Speaker 1: engine room, but instead he makes the kind of mistake 386 00:27:34,010 --> 00:27:37,130 Speaker 1: you make when you've had three hours sleep and you 387 00:27:37,210 --> 00:27:40,450 Speaker 1: only have seconds to solve a problem. He calls the 388 00:27:40,490 --> 00:27:45,010 Speaker 1: officers dining room. Ah, captain, are you ready for breakfast? Well? 389 00:27:45,130 --> 00:27:51,090 Speaker 1: God deal, God is a pig. That's some serious blasphemy 390 00:27:51,290 --> 00:27:55,570 Speaker 1: from a good Italian Catholic. It's the blasphemy of a 391 00:27:55,650 --> 00:28:24,490 Speaker 1: man who knows time has just run out. There's a 392 00:28:24,530 --> 00:28:28,010 Speaker 1: photograph of Pastrenga Rugiati. I can't get out of my head. 393 00:28:28,730 --> 00:28:33,090 Speaker 1: He's scrunched up in a confined space, his knees tucked 394 00:28:33,170 --> 00:28:36,530 Speaker 1: into his chest as if to protect himself, his eyes 395 00:28:36,770 --> 00:28:41,370 Speaker 1: rolled sharply to one side, his face ghoulishly lit from below. 396 00:28:42,250 --> 00:28:45,450 Speaker 1: He's wearing a hospital gown and he's hiding under a 397 00:28:45,490 --> 00:28:50,570 Speaker 1: hospital bed. That's where he was when the paparazzi found him. 398 00:28:50,610 --> 00:28:57,610 Speaker 1: He looks terrified. He's broken. His ship was gone, impaling 399 00:28:57,650 --> 00:29:01,410 Speaker 1: itself onto the seven Stones at full speed with a noise. 400 00:29:01,850 --> 00:29:05,170 Speaker 1: One crewman said, look a slab of lead being ripped 401 00:29:05,210 --> 00:29:12,570 Speaker 1: by spikes. Watching from his trawler, Gifolich turned to his men, 402 00:29:13,250 --> 00:29:18,090 Speaker 1: that's the end of her. She'll never get off. He 403 00:29:18,250 --> 00:29:22,730 Speaker 1: was right. The crew escaped safely, but during an attempt 404 00:29:22,810 --> 00:29:26,290 Speaker 1: to refloat the ship, there was a huge explosion. One 405 00:29:26,330 --> 00:29:30,690 Speaker 1: of the salvage team was killed. By then, Torry Canyon's 406 00:29:30,730 --> 00:29:35,250 Speaker 1: back was already broken and her underbelly sliced open by 407 00:29:35,250 --> 00:29:38,490 Speaker 1: the teeth of the reef. She was bleeding one hundred 408 00:29:38,530 --> 00:29:42,730 Speaker 1: and nineteen thousand tons of crude oil into coastal waters. 409 00:29:43,370 --> 00:29:48,050 Speaker 1: It was an environmental catastrophe. The oil spill was unprecedented. 410 00:29:48,810 --> 00:29:51,610 Speaker 1: Even today, there are places where you can still see 411 00:29:51,650 --> 00:29:55,730 Speaker 1: the dark stain on the coast. Torry Canyon was at 412 00:29:55,730 --> 00:30:00,370 Speaker 1: the time the largest shipwreck in history, as the largest 413 00:30:00,410 --> 00:30:06,450 Speaker 1: maritime insurance claim. Rugiati took responsibility. He was the captain, 414 00:30:06,850 --> 00:30:09,650 Speaker 1: and he was, he said, in charge of the best 415 00:30:09,650 --> 00:30:12,770 Speaker 1: ship in the world for a ship's captain. His ship 416 00:30:12,970 --> 00:30:17,610 Speaker 1: is all and I have lost mine. I am terrified 417 00:30:17,610 --> 00:30:23,610 Speaker 1: by the dimensions which the accident has assumed. The inquiry 418 00:30:23,810 --> 00:30:28,290 Speaker 1: was conducted in private. Journalists weren't allowed in, but the 419 00:30:28,330 --> 00:30:31,210 Speaker 1: manager of the hotel where the proceedings were being held, 420 00:30:31,610 --> 00:30:34,090 Speaker 1: told one of them that he had seen Captain Ruggiati. 421 00:30:34,770 --> 00:30:37,250 Speaker 1: I had a glimpse of this man. I had the 422 00:30:37,290 --> 00:30:41,650 Speaker 1: impression of a man finished. He very seldom have so 423 00:30:41,690 --> 00:30:44,170 Speaker 1: strong an impression from so short of seeing a man. 424 00:30:44,690 --> 00:30:49,850 Speaker 1: I must answer for everything for everyone. I must carry 425 00:30:49,890 --> 00:30:54,370 Speaker 1: the cross alone. I wish I could tell the people 426 00:30:54,410 --> 00:30:58,850 Speaker 1: of Cornwall how sorry I am. And he really was sorry. 427 00:31:00,410 --> 00:31:09,090 Speaker 1: It was very bad. The disaster broke Ruggiati. He spent 428 00:31:09,330 --> 00:31:12,570 Speaker 1: in hospital recovering from the strain and the anxiety and 429 00:31:12,610 --> 00:31:18,850 Speaker 1: the heartbreak, which is where the eager photographers found him. 430 00:31:19,010 --> 00:31:22,610 Speaker 1: A transcript of the inquiry was leaked to the journalist 431 00:31:22,770 --> 00:31:27,010 Speaker 1: Richard Petro. The tanker owners were keen to downplay any 432 00:31:27,050 --> 00:31:29,970 Speaker 1: fault on their part, including the fact that the steering 433 00:31:29,970 --> 00:31:33,770 Speaker 1: had broken in the past, confusing Captain Ruggiati when the 434 00:31:33,810 --> 00:31:37,930 Speaker 1: ship had failed to turn. But why had the ship 435 00:31:38,050 --> 00:31:41,530 Speaker 1: failed to turn in those last moments? It was a 436 00:31:41,570 --> 00:31:46,090 Speaker 1: small thing. After Ruggiahti had accidentally called the officer's dining 437 00:31:46,170 --> 00:31:49,970 Speaker 1: room and slammed down the receiver, he looked across the bridge. 438 00:31:50,570 --> 00:31:53,450 Speaker 1: From his position by the telephone, he could see that 439 00:31:53,530 --> 00:31:58,450 Speaker 1: someone had inadvertently knocked the steering control lever. The ship's 440 00:31:58,650 --> 00:32:03,490 Speaker 1: steering had simply been disconnected. All Ruggiaste needed to do 441 00:32:03,890 --> 00:32:07,610 Speaker 1: was switched the lever back and dragged Torry Canyon over 442 00:32:07,650 --> 00:32:12,290 Speaker 1: to port. But he'd lost time. With thirty seconds more 443 00:32:12,370 --> 00:32:17,250 Speaker 1: to maneuver, I could have avoided the rocks. Ruggierte had 444 00:32:17,290 --> 00:32:21,330 Speaker 1: made a plan, and as one small problem after another 445 00:32:21,530 --> 00:32:25,450 Speaker 1: made the plan riskier and riskier, he hadn't been able 446 00:32:25,490 --> 00:32:31,250 Speaker 1: to adjust. Many little things added up to one big disaster. 447 00:32:31,890 --> 00:32:36,330 Speaker 1: That's true. The deadline, the currants, the fishing boats, the 448 00:32:36,610 --> 00:32:41,410 Speaker 1: error from his junior officer, the steering control. It's bad luck. 449 00:32:41,930 --> 00:32:46,650 Speaker 1: Thirty seconds before the sheep she was saved. But the 450 00:32:46,730 --> 00:32:51,730 Speaker 1: missing thirty seconds aren't what interests me. What interests me 451 00:32:52,330 --> 00:32:56,410 Speaker 1: are the two hours that Ruggierte had to save his 452 00:32:56,570 --> 00:33:01,250 Speaker 1: Torry Canyon, the best ship in the world. He had 453 00:33:01,410 --> 00:33:04,730 Speaker 1: two hours to re root outside the isles of Scilly, 454 00:33:05,370 --> 00:33:08,650 Speaker 1: two hours to slow the ship down, two hours to 455 00:33:08,690 --> 00:33:11,890 Speaker 1: ask for advice or to turn towards the wider channel, 456 00:33:12,570 --> 00:33:17,210 Speaker 1: but he didn't do any of those things. After the 457 00:33:17,290 --> 00:33:21,450 Speaker 1: exploitative photograph was released, there was a surge of sympathy 458 00:33:21,530 --> 00:33:26,130 Speaker 1: for Ruggiati from around the world. People wrote letters of consolation. 459 00:33:27,130 --> 00:33:29,650 Speaker 1: One that caught my eye was from a thirteen year 460 00:33:29,650 --> 00:33:34,170 Speaker 1: old boy from County Cork in Ireland. I see beautiful tankers, 461 00:33:34,530 --> 00:33:37,050 Speaker 1: but I'm sure I've never seen one as beautiful as yours. 462 00:33:37,610 --> 00:33:40,450 Speaker 1: I thought and prayed for you. I am sure you 463 00:33:40,450 --> 00:33:46,690 Speaker 1: will sail the seas again. Pastrengo Rugiati never did. His 464 00:33:46,850 --> 00:33:50,890 Speaker 1: mistake was just too grave, but at the same time 465 00:33:51,170 --> 00:33:55,530 Speaker 1: it was also all too human. After all, it's our 466 00:33:55,650 --> 00:34:08,730 Speaker 1: nature to be slow to change course. You've been listening 467 00:34:08,810 --> 00:34:11,810 Speaker 1: to Cautionary Tales If you'd like to find out more 468 00:34:11,850 --> 00:34:15,370 Speaker 1: about the ideas in this episode, including links to our sources. 469 00:34:15,650 --> 00:34:19,890 Speaker 1: The show notes are on my website, Tim Harford dot com. 470 00:34:20,010 --> 00:34:23,650 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales is written and presented by me, Tim Harford. 471 00:34:23,970 --> 00:34:28,010 Speaker 1: Our producers are Ryan Dilley and Marilyn Rust. The sound 472 00:34:28,010 --> 00:34:31,930 Speaker 1: designer and mixer was Pascal Wise, who also composed the 473 00:34:32,010 --> 00:34:38,850 Speaker 1: amazing music. This season stars Alan Cumming, Archie Panchabi, Toby Stephens, 474 00:34:39,050 --> 00:34:43,730 Speaker 1: and Russell Tovey, with enso Celenti, Ed Gochen, Melanie Gutteridge, 475 00:34:43,970 --> 00:34:50,490 Speaker 1: Mercia Munroe, Rufus Wright, and introducing Malcolm Gladwell. Thanks to 476 00:34:50,530 --> 00:34:55,330 Speaker 1: the team at Pushkin Industries, Julia Barton, Heather Fame, Mia LaBelle, 477 00:34:55,610 --> 00:35:00,570 Speaker 1: Carlie Milliori, Jacob Weisberg and of course the mighty Malcolm Gladwell. 478 00:35:00,810 --> 00:35:09,530 Speaker 1: And thanks to my colleagues at the Financial Times four