WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 Q1 MLB Derivative Stats Show 0:00:02.840 --> 0:00:06.600 Tuesday morning, May fourteenth, twenty twenty four. It is the 0:00:06.640 --> 0:00:13.520 Beating the Book Podcast Q one MLB Derivatives. Yeah, nerd out, 0:00:13.840 --> 0:00:18.880 It's nerd time, It's skill Alexander. This is the longest 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:23.040 running sort of series of all the things that we 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:25.040 do on the Beating the Book podcast feed. Of course, 0:00:25.040 --> 0:00:27.440 we do the megapods, and we do the guessing line show, 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:32.839 Vegas Lifestyle, you name it. We do tennis slams. We 0:00:32.880 --> 0:00:35.920 do lots of things on this feed, but the oldest, 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:39.200 the one that is the most ancient, are doing these 0:00:39.320 --> 0:00:42.280 nerdy baseball pods and we've done them from the beginning 0:00:42.320 --> 0:00:45.560 with this gentleman, you know him by base Winner. You 0:00:45.600 --> 0:00:48.200 can follow him at basewinter dot com at base Winner, 0:00:48.680 --> 0:00:51.800 and of course he does the bet Us Baseball podcast 0:00:51.800 --> 0:00:54.680 as well on a daily basis Monday through Friday. I 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:56.640 believe it is. He'll tell me if I'm wrong. It's 0:00:56.720 --> 0:00:59.760 Mark Borchard. Everybody from an undisclosed location somewhere in that 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:00.800 does how you doing, Mark? 0:01:01.520 --> 0:01:04.240 I'm doing great, Gilly. You know it's a YouTube live 0:01:04.319 --> 0:01:07.520 show on YouTube. So if you guys want to see 0:01:07.560 --> 0:01:12.200 more of me, and why wouldn't you go to go 0:01:12.240 --> 0:01:16.280 to YouTube and search MLB show bet us and you'll 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:16.720 find us. 0:01:16.720 --> 0:01:20.880 All right. So it's a live YouTube show Monday through Friday. Yes, 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:24.399 Monday through Friday, okay, week days. And is it just 0:01:24.480 --> 0:01:25.720 you or is it someone else with you? 0:01:26.480 --> 0:01:29.920 Oh no, no, there's there's there's two analysts and a host. Okay, 0:01:30.520 --> 0:01:33.240 and I I go Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday. They do 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.319 give me a day off over there on Wednesday. And 0:01:35.360 --> 0:01:36.960 I know you wanted me to do the show, your 0:01:36.959 --> 0:01:38.720 show on Wednesday, and I wouldn't do it. 0:01:38.720 --> 0:01:41.240 You wouldn't do it. You wouldn't do it, so so 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:44.040 but I would if you really need to be But no, no, no, wait, 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:46.000 we need you. I have a day off. So I 0:01:46.080 --> 0:01:47.480 just want to repeat that thing that I said at 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:51.080 the beginning. You and I met in a forum, by 0:01:51.120 --> 0:01:54.680 the way, illegally we were not allowed like as for members, 0:01:54.680 --> 0:01:56.640 you were not allowed to talk to each other. But 0:01:56.720 --> 0:01:59.720 somehow we got it in. We gotta, we gotta exchanged 0:01:59.720 --> 0:02:04.760 ours there before before we were slapped on the wrist 0:02:04.800 --> 0:02:07.040 about it. And so you and I have been doing 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:12.400 baseball podcasts since. So we're talking about thirteen years now, 0:02:12.480 --> 0:02:13.600 mark thirteen. 0:02:14.160 --> 0:02:16.880 Good god, Oh it's it's been awesome, Gil, and I've 0:02:17.000 --> 0:02:20.000 i've jokingly sometimes refer to you as a voice of 0:02:20.040 --> 0:02:22.600 sports betting, but it's not a joke to me, it's 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:25.239 it is reality. You are such a good voice for 0:02:25.760 --> 0:02:29.080 this industry, and I'm so happy to be able to 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:31.679 listen to you when I'm in my car. I mean it, 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:34.000 it's just it's an honor. It's an honor to be 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:34.720 working with you. Gil. 0:02:34.760 --> 0:02:38.200 In all seriousness, you're very kind, I feel likewise, Listen, 0:02:38.240 --> 0:02:41.560 here's the thing. So what we do on this, we 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:43.760 generally we do it at the forty game mark, the 0:02:43.800 --> 0:02:46.080 eighty game mark, the one hundred and twenty game mark 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:48.320 of a Major League baseball season, and you and I 0:02:48.360 --> 0:02:49.880 this has been a joy to do this with you 0:02:49.960 --> 0:02:53.440 all these years. And essentially what it does is it 0:02:53.480 --> 0:02:56.400 gives us a chance in a very long baseball season 0:02:56.600 --> 0:02:59.440 to sort of say, this is what has happened Q one, 0:02:59.560 --> 0:03:02.400 Q two, and it is up to us as handicappers 0:03:02.440 --> 0:03:04.480 to try to figure out what is just okay, that's 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:07.240 great that that's happened, but what is actually predictive among 0:03:07.280 --> 0:03:09.600 that moving forward? And so we go through a bunch 0:03:09.639 --> 0:03:13.880 of different things. Let us begin with the most obvious 0:03:13.880 --> 0:03:19.040 of them or the most sort of rampantly available. This 0:03:19.360 --> 0:03:23.040 is widely available at places like covers. Just talking about 0:03:23.240 --> 0:03:27.919 the bizarro exercise of if you bet on a team 0:03:28.480 --> 0:03:32.040 every single game, whether they're a favorite or a underdog, 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.640 who would be the most and the least profitable teams 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.640 in baseball this year? Who would be the most profitable? 0:03:37.720 --> 0:03:39.440 Which would be the teams that would cause you to 0:03:39.480 --> 0:03:41.520 hemorrhage money the most? And this has to do with 0:03:41.560 --> 0:03:44.440 again what their prices are on a game by game basis. 0:03:45.000 --> 0:03:47.080 So Mark, we start by saying, who have been the 0:03:47.080 --> 0:03:49.680 most profitable here? Again, not everybody's going to be right 0:03:49.720 --> 0:03:51.520 at the quarter marks. Some are gonna have played thirty 0:03:51.600 --> 0:03:54.680 nine games, some are gonna play forty two. Right now, 0:03:54.880 --> 0:03:56.880 what you got in your record is the most profitable 0:03:56.880 --> 0:03:59.480 team bizarro betting, if you bet them every single game 0:03:59.560 --> 0:04:01.680 is a favorite dog? Who you got is number one? 0:04:02.280 --> 0:04:04.840 Okay, So we used to guess, but now I've cheated 0:04:04.840 --> 0:04:07.360 for the last two years. I'll admit, Okay, I guess. Okay, 0:04:07.360 --> 0:04:08.880 so I'll tell you who my guests would have been. 0:04:09.040 --> 0:04:12.240 My guest would have been your Cleveland Guardians. Yes, and 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:15.680 the one that I have with the best record from 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:18.559 a profit standpoint at least is Philadelphia Phillies skilled. 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:22.479 Oh okay, so I have Washington as my number one. 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:26.480 I have Washington as my number one over ten units. 0:04:26.480 --> 0:04:28.600 To the positive they're nineteen and twenty, but because they've 0:04:28.640 --> 0:04:31.279 been a dog so often that they will actually have 0:04:31.440 --> 0:04:34.719 edged out the Guardians number two, followed by the Yankees 0:04:34.800 --> 0:04:37.440 and the aforementioned Phillies. That's what I have anyway. 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:40.279 Interesting. Yeah, I guess it depends on what database people 0:04:40.360 --> 0:04:42.840 are using. But the way I'm looking at a Phillies 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:46.839 National Guardians. Either way, they're all profitable, so that's good. 0:04:46.880 --> 0:04:48.800 You know what. I think the difference where the difference 0:04:48.880 --> 0:04:51.360 lies in because I usually say, if you're betting them 0:04:51.360 --> 0:04:53.840 as a favorite, you're betting them to win a unit, 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:55.960 and if you're betting them as a dog, you're betting 0:04:55.960 --> 0:04:59.240 a unit to win whatever. And I think some of 0:04:59.279 --> 0:05:02.680 them on the favorite side don't do it to win 0:05:02.760 --> 0:05:04.960 a unit. Some of them still are just betting the 0:05:05.080 --> 0:05:07.560 unit to win less than the unit, and I think 0:05:07.640 --> 0:05:11.280 in that math comes the difference. That's my guest. 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:13.080 Yeah, I no, that would make that would make sense. 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.479 But they're similarly close and it might be you know, 0:05:17.000 --> 0:05:19.760 pulling in lines from different books and stuff. That's as 0:05:19.800 --> 0:05:20.880 simple as that. 0:05:20.880 --> 0:05:23.480 That's sure are some disparities, and oh, you're right as well, 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.360 could be very very much of that as well, all right. 0:05:26.400 --> 0:05:29.599 And then the biggest hemorrhagers again regardless of Homer Road, 0:05:29.600 --> 0:05:32.000 if you just bet them every single game thus far 0:05:32.080 --> 0:05:34.000 this year, this is a little surprising to me. I 0:05:34.080 --> 0:05:38.120 guess maybe not Miami by a mile, right. 0:05:39.120 --> 0:05:42.599 That's what I have? Yeah, yeah, yeah, in a big way. Yeah. 0:05:42.680 --> 0:05:46.480 Nineteen units in the red for the eleven and thirty 0:05:46.520 --> 0:05:50.000 two Marlins, my god, followed by the Houston Astros, which 0:05:50.000 --> 0:05:52.719 would have been a pretty uh stellar guess because obviously 0:05:52.720 --> 0:05:56.360 the expectation of Houston heading into the season were large. 0:05:56.360 --> 0:05:58.000 They're sixteen and twenty five. They would have cost you 0:05:58.040 --> 0:06:00.239 eleven and a half units. And then it's the White 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:06.919 Sox number three, just under ten units, Reds, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, 0:06:07.000 --> 0:06:11.240 Rockies also rounding out that list. So Marlins the worst 0:06:11.279 --> 0:06:14.880 thus far if we did it on home road splits. 0:06:14.880 --> 0:06:18.120 By the way, for what it's worth, Washington is by 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:21.880 far the best away team betting them just blindly away. 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:25.880 They edge out in Milwaukee In terms of the best 0:06:25.880 --> 0:06:30.560 away money line teams, the best home money line team 0:06:30.720 --> 0:06:35.080 is the Kansas City Royals up five point six five units. Again, 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:36.640 when we do this Q one, these are going to 0:06:36.720 --> 0:06:38.600 be more volatile than if we do Q two Q three, 0:06:38.640 --> 0:06:41.240 we'll they'll be more entrenched. And then in terms of 0:06:41.279 --> 0:06:43.880 the home road splits, in terms of the worst it's 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:47.760 at home, it's clearly the Marlins over ten units in 0:06:47.800 --> 0:06:50.479 the red on the road. It's actually the White Sox 0:06:50.600 --> 0:06:53.320 edging the Marlins is what I have. So there you go. 0:06:54.480 --> 0:06:56.039 How about run line? Go ahead? 0:06:56.040 --> 0:06:58.200 Mark, I'm sorry, Well, you know, I just wanted to say, 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:00.320 you know, this Kansas City Royal team is is an 0:07:00.320 --> 0:07:02.240 interesting team and that's why I wanted to bring it 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:07.200 up because they are saving runs defensively, and I'm going 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:10.080 to try to pull that up on my expected Sandy's 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:12.920 real fast here, but it's like I think, it's like 0:07:13.760 --> 0:07:16.600 they've played Okay, so they've played thirty eight games and 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:19.600 they've saved thirty one runs. So that's almost a run 0:07:19.600 --> 0:07:22.720 of game, and so I don't know, you know, that's 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:27.080 a tougher one to predict moving forward, and people measure 0:07:27.120 --> 0:07:30.680 the defensive runs a lot. You know, there's out's above 0:07:30.720 --> 0:07:35.040 average on stat Cast, there's Baseball Information Solutions which I use, 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:37.760 and there's differences, and then of course there's PA CODA 0:07:37.760 --> 0:07:40.760 and stuff. But I think that the one thing that 0:07:42.360 --> 0:07:45.040 I don't think that that sustainable Gill, that that royal. 0:07:45.400 --> 0:07:47.160 That's the one that I thought, well, you know, I 0:07:47.200 --> 0:07:48.520 think there's gonna be some regression. 0:07:48.520 --> 0:07:51.160 There is there. I mean, of everything we've just noted, 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:53.480 what to you do You look at and you're like, oh, yeah, 0:07:53.480 --> 0:07:54.920 that's absolutely going to continue. 0:07:57.080 --> 0:07:58.800 Ah, the White Sox. I don't like the White Sox 0:07:58.840 --> 0:08:01.720 at all. I mean, they're just they're a poor team. 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:04.640 You I mean, they're starting, pitching's bad, they're hitting is bad, 0:08:04.720 --> 0:08:07.520 and it just seems like they don't care and and 0:08:07.600 --> 0:08:09.640 maybe they're just you know, writing the season off. But 0:08:09.680 --> 0:08:12.160 that's that's the that's the team that doesn't surprise me 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:14.360 in the least how bad the White Sox have been. 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:16.680 And yet, for those who listen on the radio side 0:08:16.720 --> 0:08:19.440 on a numbers game, I famously had the Guardians best 0:08:19.480 --> 0:08:22.440 record March April. That came down to the last out. 0:08:22.600 --> 0:08:24.760 We were one out away from hitting a sixty five 0:08:24.840 --> 0:08:27.520 to one shot on the Guardians to win that bet, 0:08:27.560 --> 0:08:30.120 and I re upped on the Guardians for May based 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:33.000 on their schedule as well, sixteen to one, and the 0:08:33.040 --> 0:08:36.840 White Sox beat them three out of four this past week, 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.600 which was brutal for that bet. So they're gonna have to. 0:08:39.920 --> 0:08:41.760 You bring up a good point. I mean, even the 0:08:41.800 --> 0:08:43.880 best teams can lose to the worst teams. I think 0:08:43.880 --> 0:08:45.679 the Astros lost to the Royal a couple of years 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:47.520 back to Astros when they were Juggernauts, they lost to 0:08:47.600 --> 0:08:50.959 a really horrible Royals team and I think got swept. 0:08:51.040 --> 0:08:53.800 It was but that happens. So but I was you 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:55.559 know that you bring up a good point about the May. 0:08:55.760 --> 0:08:58.160 You could bet the May market. That's that's cool, That's 0:08:58.200 --> 0:08:58.600 really cool. 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:00.959 Yeah, DraftKings was the only one that did March April 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:04.040 but didn't do May. Circus still did May, and so 0:09:04.120 --> 0:09:07.360 did William Hill Caesars. By the way, de facto power rating. 0:09:07.720 --> 0:09:09.959 For those who listened to this series all these years, 0:09:10.000 --> 0:09:12.880 you know, the run line is essentially that. So instead 0:09:12.920 --> 0:09:15.559 of we talked about the money line before, this is 0:09:15.600 --> 0:09:17.440 the run line. So of your favorite you're giving a 0:09:17.480 --> 0:09:19.240 run and a half if you're a dog in each 0:09:19.240 --> 0:09:20.960 of these games you're getting a run and a half. 0:09:21.440 --> 0:09:25.200 The number one run line team per the money this 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:29.040 year is Mark. Who do you have? 0:09:29.880 --> 0:09:31.880 I would say the Royal skill. 0:09:31.880 --> 0:09:34.800 Interesting because I have the Guardians one and the Nationals two. 0:09:36.120 --> 0:09:37.040 Royals are fourth. 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:41.280 Hmm, yeah it is that is interesting. You know, where 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:43.280 do you where do your numbers? Have the white socks 0:09:43.320 --> 0:09:45.839 on that? I don't know if I made a mistake. 0:09:45.800 --> 0:09:49.440 Or what do you In terms of the run line, 0:09:49.520 --> 0:09:53.040 the White Socks are the tenth worst. 0:09:53.880 --> 0:09:56.560 Hmmm, that's that's it. Maybe maybe I'm doing the sort 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.240 wrong anyway, but I have the I have the Royals, 0:10:00.080 --> 0:10:02.800 Uh the best on the run line? 0:10:02.920 --> 0:10:05.160 Yeah, Miami is by far the worst on the run 0:10:05.200 --> 0:10:11.640 line once again, Angels second worst, Giants Boston Texas three 0:10:11.720 --> 0:10:14.440 four five in terms of the worst on the run line, 0:10:14.480 --> 0:10:16.920 and again Q one is one thing because we're only 0:10:16.960 --> 0:10:20.000 forty games in, so it becomes a little more interesting, 0:10:20.040 --> 0:10:22.000 say Q two, Q three. But that's where it stands 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:26.200 right now. The Marlins being so bad both money line 0:10:26.200 --> 0:10:27.920 and run line, you expect that to continue. 0:10:29.880 --> 0:10:33.760 It's an interesting I didn't to begin with. You know 0:10:33.840 --> 0:10:36.760 the problem with the Marlins is their their offense is 0:10:37.600 --> 0:10:41.160 really bad. I think think that they're only better than 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:45.000 the White Sox by my ratings. And you mentioned you 0:10:45.400 --> 0:10:48.040 asked me on the show a couple of weeks back, 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:50.560 well do the do the Marlins have a chance to 0:10:50.559 --> 0:10:52.200 have the worst record? I said, now that you know 0:10:52.240 --> 0:10:54.319 they have the the White Sox and the Rockies and 0:10:54.360 --> 0:10:57.800 they're they're so poor, and they all they are so poor. 0:10:57.840 --> 0:11:00.560 But I ran the simulations yesterday and they've got did 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.240 Marlins have a ten percent chance to be the worst 0:11:03.280 --> 0:11:06.600 team in baseball? Which with that pitch, I don't think 0:11:06.600 --> 0:11:08.640 the pitching is that bad, but I mean that's what 0:11:08.640 --> 0:11:09.319 the numbers say. 0:11:09.360 --> 0:11:11.800 Gil, all Right, pitchers, just that this is a bizarro 0:11:11.880 --> 0:11:14.520 exercise where if you just randomly bet on a pitcher 0:11:14.559 --> 0:11:16.960 on a starting pitcher, each and every time that pitcher 0:11:16.960 --> 0:11:20.600 took the hill, who have been the most profitable this year? 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:22.440 Who do you got mark on top of your list? 0:11:24.600 --> 0:11:27.120 You know, it's a good question, Gil, I didn't cheat 0:11:27.160 --> 0:11:29.640 on this one. Actually, Okay, this is. 0:11:29.760 --> 0:11:32.079 And this is impossible to guess because essentially what you're 0:11:32.080 --> 0:11:34.480 saying is, oh, when this guy took the hill, his 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:36.720 team just happened to end up having a great record. 0:11:37.320 --> 0:11:39.640 Obviously he has something to do with it often, but 0:11:39.679 --> 0:11:43.199 sometimes he doesn't. Tanner Biby of the Guardians. Guardians are 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:45.240 eight and one. When he takes the hills, he'd be 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:46.800 up six point sixty three units. 0:11:47.520 --> 0:11:51.040 You know, I'm looking at Ranger Suarez, Gil, Ranger Suarez 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:52.040 has been good. 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:58.640 I got Suarez at number twelve because the Yeah, you're right, 0:11:58.679 --> 0:12:01.760 the Phillies have been eight know, in the starts that 0:12:01.800 --> 0:12:03.480 he has had now, he's been a favorite in most 0:12:03.520 --> 0:12:05.520 of them. So you'd be up six point one four. 0:12:05.559 --> 0:12:08.800 Oh you know what, Actually I'm looking at the wrong column. 0:12:08.840 --> 0:12:13.040 You're right, that's you. That's on me. Suarez is fourth, 0:12:13.640 --> 0:12:17.199 by b is third according to my numbers. 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:21.440 Yeah, you know this Suarez. I just wanted to pause 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:24.439 on him real fast because I've always not liked him 0:12:24.440 --> 0:12:27.839 because his sabermetrics have been poor. But his sabermetrics are 0:12:27.840 --> 0:12:30.560 good this year, Gil, you know, so I think that 0:12:30.559 --> 0:12:33.280 that could be sustainable for him if he keeps it up. 0:12:33.240 --> 0:12:36.400 Because he's going he's going further into games now than 0:12:36.400 --> 0:12:37.880 he used to. Remember he used to be the five 0:12:37.920 --> 0:12:39.599 inning guy, Suarez. 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.040 And now he's got great command. His his command's really good. 0:12:43.160 --> 0:12:46.520 His his strikeout percentage is thirty percent better than average, 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:48.959 so you know, you just I'm just not used to 0:12:49.000 --> 0:12:53.400 seeing the advanced numbers. So good on Suarez. And he's 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:55.480 got a base winner era of two point four to eight, 0:12:55.480 --> 0:12:56.600 which is which is nice. 0:12:56.800 --> 0:12:59.240 Yeah, so apologies on that. So it is again in 0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:00.960 the order of money made. 0:13:01.120 --> 0:13:01.560 Pardon me. 0:13:02.360 --> 0:13:05.480 Fifth is Chris Paddock of the Twins. Twins are six 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:06.920 and one. When he's taken the hill, he would have 0:13:06.960 --> 0:13:09.720 gotten you just under five units to the positive. Suarez 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.480 is fourth, Philly's eight and oh when he took the hill, 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:15.120 you'd be up over six bucks with him bybe of 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:18.080 the Guardian standard bybe six point sixty three units to 0:13:18.080 --> 0:13:20.760 the positive. He's number three, Guardians eight and one when 0:13:20.760 --> 0:13:24.480 he's taking the hill. Alex marsh of the Royals mark 0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:27.400 Royals six and oh when he's taken the hill. You'd 0:13:27.400 --> 0:13:30.319 be up almost seven units to the positive when Alec 0:13:30.440 --> 0:13:34.520 Mars is taking the hill. And number one Trevor Williams 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:39.040 of the Natties Nationals are eight and one when he's 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.679 taken the hill. So excuse me, part in eight and one. 0:13:41.720 --> 0:13:44.680 Now let me see if I can get that again. Yeah, 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:46.720 six and one, pardon me, So you'd be up eight 0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.720 point seventy one units. So for what that's worth, right, 0:13:49.840 --> 0:13:51.959 is there anything to that for any of those guys? 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.959 I mean, the Suarez thing is interesting. Trevor Williams is 0:13:56.000 --> 0:13:58.199 in it because I bet against this guy, Trevor Williams, 0:13:58.240 --> 0:14:01.720 and I've missed obviously because he's he's won a lot 0:14:01.760 --> 0:14:03.880 more than he's lost. But you look at his era, 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:07.200 it's one point nine to six gil his component era 0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:09.240 the way I do it is four point one five. 0:14:09.320 --> 0:14:11.760 So that's a big gap there. So I would say 0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:13.679 that that would not be sustainable. 0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:16.840 How about Trevor Rodgers talking about the Marlins and how 0:14:16.880 --> 0:14:22.480 they've hemorrhaged. The Marlins have five guys in the bottom five, geez, 0:14:22.960 --> 0:14:27.600 Trevor Rodgers, Marlin's to eight when he has taken the hill, 0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.520 so you'd be down exactly eight dollars. He was a 0:14:29.520 --> 0:14:32.360 dog in each of them. He any of the Rangers 0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:35.680 is in there. So is fat of the of the Diamondbacks. 0:14:36.000 --> 0:14:39.520 Fat or fot is how it was actually pronounced, I believe. 0:14:41.000 --> 0:14:44.320 But you've got for the Marlins fourth and fifth. You've 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:48.400 also got aj Puck at fourth worst, and then you 0:14:48.600 --> 0:14:52.040 have Lozarno fifth worst Marlins are zher and four with 0:14:52.080 --> 0:14:54.760 Puck on the hill one in five pardon me, with 0:14:54.800 --> 0:14:58.600 Lozardo starting, so you'd also, yeah, go ahead. 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:00.320 You look at the worst guy from a from a 0:15:00.360 --> 0:15:01.880 component standpoint, a J. Puck. 0:15:01.920 --> 0:15:02.160 I don't know. 0:15:02.160 --> 0:15:04.200 They must have put him on the shelf because his 0:15:04.320 --> 0:15:06.560 ERA is nine point two too, but his component e 0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:09.920 er is eight point two one. Just a terrible I 0:15:09.960 --> 0:15:12.600 mean both both numbers. And I didn't think he was 0:15:12.640 --> 0:15:14.600 that bad going into the year, So maybe there's an 0:15:14.640 --> 0:15:17.600 injury there for him. They do have this. The one 0:15:17.600 --> 0:15:21.120 thing about Miami, they have Cabrera and Munos and and 0:15:21.280 --> 0:15:25.440 Lozardo's component stats have been better than than an average pitcher, 0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:27.920 at least you could say, so they have some some 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:31.760 salvageable parts there in the starting pitching, but they have 0:15:31.800 --> 0:15:34.000 some some guys that are that are brutal to Gil. 0:15:34.400 --> 0:15:36.200 Yeah, and to the extent I don't know what. So 0:15:36.320 --> 0:15:37.760 when we get to the point of, okay, how does 0:15:37.800 --> 0:15:41.080 this help us handicapping anything? In the pictures there, you're 0:15:41.120 --> 0:15:43.280 saying Suarez is interesting. That's the one. 0:15:44.640 --> 0:15:49.200 Yeah, that's Suarez is his uh uh, he's interesting to 0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:51.720 me and you know, I'm kind of kind of looking 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:54.200 through this as far as like, uh, you know the 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.680 guys who have lost money, and I'm looking at Yamamoto 0:15:57.840 --> 0:16:00.840 and that you'd have lost money playing you know the 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:07.600 Dodgers Yamobe there. Yeah, you Shouldobo Yamamoto. And I think 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:09.920 that guy got He was one of the I love 0:16:10.000 --> 0:16:12.520 watching that guy pitch, the way he can locate and everything. 0:16:12.560 --> 0:16:17.000 So I think that Yamamoto I wouldn't read into those numbers, 0:16:17.120 --> 0:16:19.920 at least the profit loss numbers too much. I don't 0:16:19.960 --> 0:16:21.360 think he's the real And. 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:23.240 Last night was a great example, right was it? Last 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:25.360 night was on the hill at at and T where 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:27.960 he gave up the three run shout to Matos. Other 0:16:28.040 --> 0:16:29.560 than that, he was pretty stellar though. 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:33.400 You know, he's so fun to watch man, that guy's 0:16:33.440 --> 0:16:33.960 really fun. 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:36.320 The nice part about having you for the umpires is 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.240 that you have historical data on this these thus far 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:43.800 the most reliable over umpires thus far this season. Now 0:16:43.880 --> 0:16:47.080 you can find these assignments at a couple places. I 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.840 always bring up stat Fox. I know you have an 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:52.320 example also, where do you go to look at umpire assignments? 0:16:52.400 --> 0:16:55.920 You know, Umpire Crew tweets it out but if you guys, 0:16:56.440 --> 0:16:58.360 I mean, if you want to take an extra step, 0:16:59.360 --> 0:17:01.360 you could just look at the box score from the 0:17:01.440 --> 0:17:03.760 previous night. So you're not going to know who the 0:17:03.840 --> 0:17:06.959 umpire is for that first game, but you will if 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.680 they're playing an extended series or really the all series. 0:17:11.520 --> 0:17:15.040 Once that first game goes, they rotate, the first base 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:18.159 empire moves to home plate, so the night before it 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:21.040 would be the first base umpire from the night before 0:17:21.080 --> 0:17:23.719 would be doing today's home plate gilt. 0:17:23.880 --> 0:17:28.560 Yeah, and it's really incoming, especially if you're a totals better. 0:17:28.800 --> 0:17:31.120 But really, if you're better at all, knowing if there's 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:34.200 any tendencies with these umpires is such a huge thing. 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.359 And up until this point these numbers have been very 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:40.000 widely available. Now we start to get into a little 0:17:40.040 --> 0:17:44.120 more proprietary. We'll get to five innings and first innings 0:17:44.119 --> 0:17:47.040 coming up. But this is great to have mark because 0:17:47.040 --> 0:17:50.240 he has historical numbers so thus far this year, Paul 0:17:50.400 --> 0:17:54.080 Clemens six games behind home plate, Colin balls and strikes 0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:58.200 six overs, Andy Fletcher five of seven have gone over 0:17:58.240 --> 0:18:01.320 when he's been behind home plate, and Blakeney five of 0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:06.440 five have gone over him behind home plate. The other 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:11.639 ones which are four out of five pardon me sorry, 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:15.600 getting over nail lists, Bruce Dreckman, Adrian Johnson, Lazaro Diaz, 0:18:15.680 --> 0:18:19.159 there's a boy, Las Diaz, Daniel Blino, all four out 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.840 of five have gone over, and then Rippercher Brian Walsh 0:18:22.840 --> 0:18:26.960 and Tony Rendozzo four of four have gone over when 0:18:27.000 --> 0:18:29.359 they've been behind home plate. Now these are without knowing 0:18:29.400 --> 0:18:32.840 what ballparks they've been in. We don't know the run environments. 0:18:32.880 --> 0:18:36.400 But we're just saying calling balls and strikes anything consistent 0:18:36.440 --> 0:18:37.960 with your historical numbers there. 0:18:38.200 --> 0:18:41.840 You know, the second to last one you mentioned, Tony Randazzo, 0:18:42.119 --> 0:18:46.920 he is he allows runs eight percent more than an 0:18:47.000 --> 0:18:51.800 average umpire based on balls and strikes, so that would 0:18:51.840 --> 0:18:53.680 be consistent, and the other ones aren't there. So it 0:18:54.200 --> 0:18:56.320 just goes to show you that I think at this point, 0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.720 using you know what, if they're over under, at least 0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:02.199 this early into the season, it could be, you know, 0:19:02.320 --> 0:19:03.800 not the best idea, Gil. 0:19:04.400 --> 0:19:06.800 Not the best idea in terms of sagan in terms 0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:08.240 of yeah, I mean, if. 0:19:08.200 --> 0:19:10.040 You if you just go, well, this guy's five and 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.720 oh to the over because there's so many other things 0:19:12.720 --> 0:19:15.040 that go into that that that component. But I can 0:19:15.160 --> 0:19:17.359 tell you that the over the last and I think 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:19.240 I've done this for the last two and a half years. 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:21.560 Actually I used to have it for three to four years, 0:19:21.560 --> 0:19:23.480 and I think that there's I think there's there's been 0:19:23.640 --> 0:19:25.840 been some adjustments in the in the way the umpires 0:19:25.880 --> 0:19:27.399 are calling games, so I wanted to make it a 0:19:27.480 --> 0:19:29.919 little tighter. It goes back to twenty twenty two, so 0:19:29.960 --> 0:19:32.560 twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, and then this year. 0:19:33.080 --> 0:19:36.560 This is just based on walk percentage and strikeout percentage. 0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:40.639 And you've got a guy Mark Wagner thirteen percent a 0:19:40.760 --> 0:19:44.520 worse from a run run suppression, so thirteen percent greater 0:19:44.600 --> 0:19:48.480 runs allowed, and then Marquez and Jordan Baker. Those would 0:19:48.520 --> 0:19:51.160