Speaker 1: Tuesday morning, May fourteenth, twenty twenty four. It is the
Speaker 1: Beating the Book Podcast Q one MLB Derivatives. Yeah, nerd out,
Speaker 1: It's nerd time, It's skill Alexander. This is the longest
Speaker 1: running sort of series of all the things that we
Speaker 1: do on the Beating the Book podcast feed. Of course,
Speaker 1: we do the megapods, and we do the guessing line show,
Speaker 1: Vegas Lifestyle, you name it. We do tennis slams. We
Speaker 1: do lots of things on this feed, but the oldest,
Speaker 1: the one that is the most ancient, are doing these
Speaker 1: nerdy baseball pods and we've done them from the beginning
Speaker 1: with this gentleman, you know him by base Winner. You
Speaker 1: can follow him at basewinter dot com at base Winner,
Speaker 1: and of course he does the bet Us Baseball podcast
Speaker 1: as well on a daily basis Monday through Friday. I
Speaker 1: believe it is. He'll tell me if I'm wrong. It's
Speaker 1: Mark Borchard. Everybody from an undisclosed location somewhere in that
Speaker 1: does how you doing, Mark?
Speaker 2: I'm doing great, Gilly. You know it's a YouTube live
Speaker 2: show on YouTube. So if you guys want to see
Speaker 2: more of me, and why wouldn't you go to go
Speaker 2: to YouTube and search MLB show bet us and you'll
Speaker 2: find us.
Speaker 1: All right. So it's a live YouTube show Monday through Friday. Yes,
Speaker 1: Monday through Friday, okay, week days. And is it just
Speaker 1: you or is it someone else with you?
Speaker 2: Oh no, no, there's there's there's two analysts and a host. Okay,
Speaker 2: and I I go Monday, Tuesday, Thursday, Friday. They do
Speaker 2: give me a day off over there on Wednesday. And
Speaker 2: I know you wanted me to do the show, your
Speaker 2: show on Wednesday, and I wouldn't do it.
Speaker 1: You wouldn't do it. You wouldn't do it, so so
Speaker 1: but I would if you really need to be But no, no, no, wait,
Speaker 1: we need you. I have a day off. So I
Speaker 1: just want to repeat that thing that I said at
Speaker 1: the beginning. You and I met in a forum, by
Speaker 1: the way, illegally we were not allowed like as for members,
Speaker 1: you were not allowed to talk to each other. But
Speaker 1: somehow we got it in. We gotta, we gotta exchanged
Speaker 1: ours there before before we were slapped on the wrist
Speaker 1: about it. And so you and I have been doing
Speaker 1: baseball podcasts since. So we're talking about thirteen years now,
Speaker 1: mark thirteen.
Speaker 2: Good god, Oh it's it's been awesome, Gil, and I've
Speaker 2: i've jokingly sometimes refer to you as a voice of
Speaker 2: sports betting, but it's not a joke to me, it's
Speaker 2: it is reality. You are such a good voice for
Speaker 2: this industry, and I'm so happy to be able to
Speaker 2: listen to you when I'm in my car. I mean it,
Speaker 2: it's just it's an honor. It's an honor to be
Speaker 2: working with you. Gil.
Speaker 1: In all seriousness, you're very kind, I feel likewise, Listen,
Speaker 1: here's the thing. So what we do on this, we
Speaker 1: generally we do it at the forty game mark, the
Speaker 1: eighty game mark, the one hundred and twenty game mark
Speaker 1: of a Major League baseball season, and you and I
Speaker 1: this has been a joy to do this with you
Speaker 1: all these years. And essentially what it does is it
Speaker 1: gives us a chance in a very long baseball season
Speaker 1: to sort of say, this is what has happened Q one,
Speaker 1: Q two, and it is up to us as handicappers
Speaker 1: to try to figure out what is just okay, that's
Speaker 1: great that that's happened, but what is actually predictive among
Speaker 1: that moving forward? And so we go through a bunch
Speaker 1: of different things. Let us begin with the most obvious
Speaker 1: of them or the most sort of rampantly available. This
Speaker 1: is widely available at places like covers. Just talking about
Speaker 1: the bizarro exercise of if you bet on a team
Speaker 1: every single game, whether they're a favorite or a underdog,
Speaker 1: who would be the most and the least profitable teams
Speaker 1: in baseball this year? Who would be the most profitable?
Speaker 1: Which would be the teams that would cause you to
Speaker 1: hemorrhage money the most? And this has to do with
Speaker 1: again what their prices are on a game by game basis.
Speaker 1: So Mark, we start by saying, who have been the
Speaker 1: most profitable here? Again, not everybody's going to be right
Speaker 1: at the quarter marks. Some are gonna have played thirty
Speaker 1: nine games, some are gonna play forty two. Right now,
Speaker 1: what you got in your record is the most profitable
Speaker 1: team bizarro betting, if you bet them every single game
Speaker 1: is a favorite dog? Who you got is number one?
Speaker 2: Okay, So we used to guess, but now I've cheated
Speaker 2: for the last two years. I'll admit, Okay, I guess. Okay,
Speaker 2: so I'll tell you who my guests would have been.
Speaker 2: My guest would have been your Cleveland Guardians. Yes, and
Speaker 2: the one that I have with the best record from
Speaker 2: a profit standpoint at least is Philadelphia Phillies skilled.
Speaker 1: Oh okay, so I have Washington as my number one.
Speaker 1: I have Washington as my number one over ten units.
Speaker 1: To the positive they're nineteen and twenty, but because they've
Speaker 1: been a dog so often that they will actually have
Speaker 1: edged out the Guardians number two, followed by the Yankees
Speaker 1: and the aforementioned Phillies. That's what I have anyway.
Speaker 2: Interesting. Yeah, I guess it depends on what database people
Speaker 2: are using. But the way I'm looking at a Phillies
Speaker 2: National Guardians. Either way, they're all profitable, so that's good.
Speaker 1: You know what. I think the difference where the difference
Speaker 1: lies in because I usually say, if you're betting them
Speaker 1: as a favorite, you're betting them to win a unit,
Speaker 1: and if you're betting them as a dog, you're betting
Speaker 1: a unit to win whatever. And I think some of
Speaker 1: them on the favorite side don't do it to win
Speaker 1: a unit. Some of them still are just betting the
Speaker 1: unit to win less than the unit, and I think
Speaker 1: in that math comes the difference. That's my guest.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I no, that would make that would make sense.
Speaker 2: But they're similarly close and it might be you know,
Speaker 2: pulling in lines from different books and stuff. That's as
Speaker 2: simple as that.
Speaker 1: That's sure are some disparities, and oh, you're right as well,
Speaker 1: could be very very much of that as well, all right.
Speaker 1: And then the biggest hemorrhagers again regardless of Homer Road,
Speaker 1: if you just bet them every single game thus far
Speaker 1: this year, this is a little surprising to me. I
Speaker 1: guess maybe not Miami by a mile, right.
Speaker 2: That's what I have? Yeah, yeah, yeah, in a big way. Yeah.
Speaker 1: Nineteen units in the red for the eleven and thirty
Speaker 1: two Marlins, my god, followed by the Houston Astros, which
Speaker 1: would have been a pretty uh stellar guess because obviously
Speaker 1: the expectation of Houston heading into the season were large.
Speaker 1: They're sixteen and twenty five. They would have cost you
Speaker 1: eleven and a half units. And then it's the White
Speaker 1: Sox number three, just under ten units, Reds, Angels, Giants, Cardinals,
Speaker 1: Rockies also rounding out that list. So Marlins the worst
Speaker 1: thus far if we did it on home road splits.
Speaker 1: By the way, for what it's worth, Washington is by
Speaker 1: far the best away team betting them just blindly away.
Speaker 1: They edge out in Milwaukee In terms of the best
Speaker 1: away money line teams, the best home money line team
Speaker 1: is the Kansas City Royals up five point six five units. Again,
Speaker 1: when we do this Q one, these are going to
Speaker 1: be more volatile than if we do Q two Q three,
Speaker 1: we'll they'll be more entrenched. And then in terms of
Speaker 1: the home road splits, in terms of the worst it's
Speaker 1: at home, it's clearly the Marlins over ten units in
Speaker 1: the red on the road. It's actually the White Sox
Speaker 1: edging the Marlins is what I have. So there you go.
Speaker 1: How about run line? Go ahead?
Speaker 2: Mark, I'm sorry, Well, you know, I just wanted to say,
Speaker 2: you know, this Kansas City Royal team is is an
Speaker 2: interesting team and that's why I wanted to bring it
Speaker 2: up because they are saving runs defensively, and I'm going
Speaker 2: to try to pull that up on my expected Sandy's
Speaker 2: real fast here, but it's like I think, it's like
Speaker 2: they've played Okay, so they've played thirty eight games and
Speaker 2: they've saved thirty one runs. So that's almost a run
Speaker 2: of game, and so I don't know, you know, that's
Speaker 2: a tougher one to predict moving forward, and people measure
Speaker 2: the defensive runs a lot. You know, there's out's above
Speaker 2: average on stat Cast, there's Baseball Information Solutions which I use,
Speaker 2: and there's differences, and then of course there's PA CODA
Speaker 2: and stuff. But I think that the one thing that
Speaker 2: I don't think that that sustainable Gill, that that royal.
Speaker 2: That's the one that I thought, well, you know, I
Speaker 2: think there's gonna be some regression.
Speaker 1: There is there. I mean, of everything we've just noted,
Speaker 1: what to you do You look at and you're like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's absolutely going to continue.
Speaker 2: Ah, the White Sox. I don't like the White Sox
Speaker 2: at all. I mean, they're just they're a poor team.
Speaker 2: You I mean, they're starting, pitching's bad, they're hitting is bad,
Speaker 2: and it just seems like they don't care and and
Speaker 2: maybe they're just you know, writing the season off. But
Speaker 2: that's that's the that's the team that doesn't surprise me
Speaker 2: in the least how bad the White Sox have been.
Speaker 1: And yet, for those who listen on the radio side
Speaker 1: on a numbers game, I famously had the Guardians best
Speaker 1: record March April. That came down to the last out.
Speaker 1: We were one out away from hitting a sixty five
Speaker 1: to one shot on the Guardians to win that bet,
Speaker 1: and I re upped on the Guardians for May based
Speaker 1: on their schedule as well, sixteen to one, and the
Speaker 1: White Sox beat them three out of four this past week,
Speaker 1: which was brutal for that bet. So they're gonna have to.
Speaker 2: You bring up a good point. I mean, even the
Speaker 2: best teams can lose to the worst teams. I think
Speaker 2: the Astros lost to the Royal a couple of years
Speaker 2: back to Astros when they were Juggernauts, they lost to
Speaker 2: a really horrible Royals team and I think got swept.
Speaker 2: It was but that happens. So but I was you
Speaker 2: know that you bring up a good point about the May.
Speaker 2: You could bet the May market. That's that's cool, That's
Speaker 2: really cool.
Speaker 1: Yeah, DraftKings was the only one that did March April
Speaker 1: but didn't do May. Circus still did May, and so
Speaker 1: did William Hill Caesars. By the way, de facto power rating.
Speaker 1: For those who listened to this series all these years,
Speaker 1: you know, the run line is essentially that. So instead
Speaker 1: of we talked about the money line before, this is
Speaker 1: the run line. So of your favorite you're giving a
Speaker 1: run and a half if you're a dog in each
Speaker 1: of these games you're getting a run and a half.
Speaker 1: The number one run line team per the money this
Speaker 1: year is Mark. Who do you have?
Speaker 2: I would say the Royal skill.
Speaker 1: Interesting because I have the Guardians one and the Nationals two.
Speaker 1: Royals are fourth.
Speaker 2: Hmm, yeah it is that is interesting. You know, where
Speaker 2: do you where do your numbers? Have the white socks
Speaker 2: on that? I don't know if I made a mistake.
Speaker 1: Or what do you In terms of the run line,
Speaker 1: the White Socks are the tenth worst.
Speaker 2: Hmmm, that's that's it. Maybe maybe I'm doing the sort
Speaker 2: wrong anyway, but I have the I have the Royals,
Speaker 2: Uh the best on the run line?
Speaker 1: Yeah, Miami is by far the worst on the run
Speaker 1: line once again, Angels second worst, Giants Boston Texas three
Speaker 1: four five in terms of the worst on the run line,
Speaker 1: and again Q one is one thing because we're only
Speaker 1: forty games in, so it becomes a little more interesting,
Speaker 1: say Q two, Q three. But that's where it stands
Speaker 1: right now. The Marlins being so bad both money line
Speaker 1: and run line, you expect that to continue.
Speaker 2: It's an interesting I didn't to begin with. You know
Speaker 2: the problem with the Marlins is their their offense is
Speaker 2: really bad. I think think that they're only better than
Speaker 2: the White Sox by my ratings. And you mentioned you
Speaker 2: asked me on the show a couple of weeks back,
Speaker 2: well do the do the Marlins have a chance to
Speaker 2: have the worst record? I said, now that you know
Speaker 2: they have the the White Sox and the Rockies and
Speaker 2: they're they're so poor, and they all they are so poor.
Speaker 2: But I ran the simulations yesterday and they've got did
Speaker 2: Marlins have a ten percent chance to be the worst
Speaker 2: team in baseball? Which with that pitch, I don't think
Speaker 2: the pitching is that bad, but I mean that's what
Speaker 2: the numbers say.
Speaker 1: Gil, all Right, pitchers, just that this is a bizarro
Speaker 1: exercise where if you just randomly bet on a pitcher
Speaker 1: on a starting pitcher, each and every time that pitcher
Speaker 1: took the hill, who have been the most profitable this year?
Speaker 1: Who do you got mark on top of your list?
Speaker 2: You know, it's a good question, Gil, I didn't cheat
Speaker 2: on this one. Actually, Okay, this is.
Speaker 1: And this is impossible to guess because essentially what you're
Speaker 1: saying is, oh, when this guy took the hill, his
Speaker 1: team just happened to end up having a great record.
Speaker 1: Obviously he has something to do with it often, but
Speaker 1: sometimes he doesn't. Tanner Biby of the Guardians. Guardians are
Speaker 1: eight and one. When he takes the hills, he'd be
Speaker 1: up six point sixty three units.
Speaker 2: You know, I'm looking at Ranger Suarez, Gil, Ranger Suarez
Speaker 2: has been good.
Speaker 1: I got Suarez at number twelve because the Yeah, you're right,
Speaker 1: the Phillies have been eight know, in the starts that
Speaker 1: he has had now, he's been a favorite in most
Speaker 1: of them. So you'd be up six point one four.
Speaker 1: Oh you know what, Actually I'm looking at the wrong column.
Speaker 1: You're right, that's you. That's on me. Suarez is fourth,
Speaker 1: by b is third according to my numbers.
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know this Suarez. I just wanted to pause
Speaker 2: on him real fast because I've always not liked him
Speaker 2: because his sabermetrics have been poor. But his sabermetrics are
Speaker 2: good this year, Gil, you know, so I think that
Speaker 2: that could be sustainable for him if he keeps it up.
Speaker 1: Because he's going he's going further into games now than
Speaker 1: he used to. Remember he used to be the five
Speaker 1: inning guy, Suarez.
Speaker 2: And now he's got great command. His his command's really good.
Speaker 2: His his strikeout percentage is thirty percent better than average,
Speaker 2: so you know, you just I'm just not used to
Speaker 2: seeing the advanced numbers. So good on Suarez. And he's
Speaker 2: got a base winner era of two point four to eight,
Speaker 2: which is which is nice.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so apologies on that. So it is again in
Speaker 1: the order of money made.
Speaker 2: Pardon me.
Speaker 1: Fifth is Chris Paddock of the Twins. Twins are six
Speaker 1: and one. When he's taken the hill, he would have
Speaker 1: gotten you just under five units to the positive. Suarez
Speaker 1: is fourth, Philly's eight and oh when he took the hill,
Speaker 1: you'd be up over six bucks with him bybe of
Speaker 1: the Guardian standard bybe six point sixty three units to
Speaker 1: the positive. He's number three, Guardians eight and one when
Speaker 1: he's taking the hill. Alex marsh of the Royals mark
Speaker 1: Royals six and oh when he's taken the hill. You'd
Speaker 1: be up almost seven units to the positive when Alec
Speaker 1: Mars is taking the hill. And number one Trevor Williams
Speaker 1: of the Natties Nationals are eight and one when he's
Speaker 1: taken the hill. So excuse me, part in eight and one.
Speaker 1: Now let me see if I can get that again. Yeah,
Speaker 1: six and one, pardon me, So you'd be up eight
Speaker 1: point seventy one units. So for what that's worth, right,
Speaker 1: is there anything to that for any of those guys?
Speaker 2: I mean, the Suarez thing is interesting. Trevor Williams is
Speaker 2: in it because I bet against this guy, Trevor Williams,
Speaker 2: and I've missed obviously because he's he's won a lot
Speaker 2: more than he's lost. But you look at his era,
Speaker 2: it's one point nine to six gil his component era
Speaker 2: the way I do it is four point one five.
Speaker 2: So that's a big gap there. So I would say
Speaker 2: that that would not be sustainable.
Speaker 1: How about Trevor Rodgers talking about the Marlins and how
Speaker 1: they've hemorrhaged. The Marlins have five guys in the bottom five, geez,
Speaker 1: Trevor Rodgers, Marlin's to eight when he has taken the hill,
Speaker 1: so you'd be down exactly eight dollars. He was a
Speaker 1: dog in each of them. He any of the Rangers
Speaker 1: is in there. So is fat of the of the Diamondbacks.
Speaker 1: Fat or fot is how it was actually pronounced, I believe.
Speaker 1: But you've got for the Marlins fourth and fifth. You've
Speaker 1: also got aj Puck at fourth worst, and then you
Speaker 1: have Lozarno fifth worst Marlins are zher and four with
Speaker 1: Puck on the hill one in five pardon me, with
Speaker 1: Lozardo starting, so you'd also, yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 2: You look at the worst guy from a from a
Speaker 2: component standpoint, a J. Puck.
Speaker 1: I don't know.
Speaker 2: They must have put him on the shelf because his
Speaker 2: ERA is nine point two too, but his component e
Speaker 2: er is eight point two one. Just a terrible I
Speaker 2: mean both both numbers. And I didn't think he was
Speaker 2: that bad going into the year, So maybe there's an
Speaker 2: injury there for him. They do have this. The one
Speaker 2: thing about Miami, they have Cabrera and Munos and and
Speaker 2: Lozardo's component stats have been better than than an average pitcher,
Speaker 2: at least you could say, so they have some some
Speaker 2: salvageable parts there in the starting pitching, but they have
Speaker 2: some some guys that are that are brutal to Gil.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and to the extent I don't know what. So
Speaker 1: when we get to the point of, okay, how does
Speaker 1: this help us handicapping anything? In the pictures there, you're
Speaker 1: saying Suarez is interesting. That's the one.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's Suarez is his uh uh, he's interesting to
Speaker 2: me and you know, I'm kind of kind of looking
Speaker 2: through this as far as like, uh, you know the
Speaker 2: guys who have lost money, and I'm looking at Yamamoto
Speaker 2: and that you'd have lost money playing you know the
Speaker 2: Dodgers Yamobe there. Yeah, you Shouldobo Yamamoto. And I think
Speaker 2: that guy got He was one of the I love
Speaker 2: watching that guy pitch, the way he can locate and everything.
Speaker 2: So I think that Yamamoto I wouldn't read into those numbers,
Speaker 2: at least the profit loss numbers too much. I don't
Speaker 2: think he's the real And.
Speaker 1: Last night was a great example, right was it? Last
Speaker 1: night was on the hill at at and T where
Speaker 1: he gave up the three run shout to Matos. Other
Speaker 1: than that, he was pretty stellar though.
Speaker 2: You know, he's so fun to watch man, that guy's
Speaker 2: really fun.
Speaker 1: The nice part about having you for the umpires is
Speaker 1: that you have historical data on this these thus far
Speaker 1: the most reliable over umpires thus far this season. Now
Speaker 1: you can find these assignments at a couple places. I
Speaker 1: always bring up stat Fox. I know you have an
Speaker 1: example also, where do you go to look at umpire assignments?
Speaker 2: You know, Umpire Crew tweets it out but if you guys,
Speaker 2: I mean, if you want to take an extra step,
Speaker 2: you could just look at the box score from the
Speaker 2: previous night. So you're not going to know who the
Speaker 2: umpire is for that first game, but you will if
Speaker 2: they're playing an extended series or really the all series.
Speaker 2: Once that first game goes, they rotate, the first base
Speaker 2: empire moves to home plate, so the night before it
Speaker 2: would be the first base umpire from the night before
Speaker 2: would be doing today's home plate gilt.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's really incoming, especially if you're a totals better.
Speaker 1: But really, if you're better at all, knowing if there's
Speaker 1: any tendencies with these umpires is such a huge thing.
Speaker 1: And up until this point these numbers have been very
Speaker 1: widely available. Now we start to get into a little
Speaker 1: more proprietary. We'll get to five innings and first innings
Speaker 1: coming up. But this is great to have mark because
Speaker 1: he has historical numbers so thus far this year, Paul
Speaker 1: Clemens six games behind home plate, Colin balls and strikes
Speaker 1: six overs, Andy Fletcher five of seven have gone over
Speaker 1: when he's been behind home plate, and Blakeney five of
Speaker 1: five have gone over him behind home plate. The other
Speaker 1: ones which are four out of five pardon me sorry,
Speaker 1: getting over nail lists, Bruce Dreckman, Adrian Johnson, Lazaro Diaz,
Speaker 1: there's a boy, Las Diaz, Daniel Blino, all four out
Speaker 1: of five have gone over, and then Rippercher Brian Walsh
Speaker 1: and Tony Rendozzo four of four have gone over when
Speaker 1: they've been behind home plate. Now these are without knowing
Speaker 1: what ballparks they've been in. We don't know the run environments.
Speaker 1: But we're just saying calling balls and strikes anything consistent
Speaker 1: with your historical numbers there.
Speaker 2: You know, the second to last one you mentioned, Tony Randazzo,
Speaker 2: he is he allows runs eight percent more than an
Speaker 2: average umpire based on balls and strikes, so that would
Speaker 2: be consistent, and the other ones aren't there. So it
Speaker 2: just goes to show you that I think at this point,
Speaker 2: using you know what, if they're over under, at least
Speaker 2: this early into the season, it could be, you know,
Speaker 2: not the best idea, Gil.
Speaker 1: Not the best idea in terms of sagan in terms
Speaker 1: of yeah, I mean, if.
Speaker 2: You if you just go, well, this guy's five and
Speaker 2: oh to the over because there's so many other things
Speaker 2: that go into that that that component. But I can
Speaker 2: tell you that the over the last and I think
Speaker 2: I've done this for the last two and a half years.
Speaker 2: Actually I used to have it for three to four years,
Speaker 2: and I think that there's I think there's there's been
Speaker 2: been some adjustments in the in the way the umpires
Speaker 2: are calling games, so I wanted to make it a
Speaker 2: little tighter. It goes back to twenty twenty two, so
Speaker 2: twenty twenty two, twenty twenty three, and then this year.
Speaker 2: This is just based on walk percentage and strikeout percentage.
Speaker 2: And you've got a guy Mark Wagner thirteen percent a
Speaker 2: worse from a run run suppression, so thirteen percent greater
Speaker 2: runs allowed, and then Marquez and Jordan Baker. Those would
Speaker 2: be my top three over guys. And it does make
Speaker 2: a difference if you look at it like a just
Speaker 2: just just throw out ten percent, uh, you know, extra runs.
Speaker 2: I mean on a on a total of nine and
Speaker 2: that's a full run. So I think I think that
Speaker 2: you almost have to use them for me personally.
Speaker 1: Deal give those three Give those give those three names
Speaker 1: again if you would that you came up with.
Speaker 2: Mark Wegner, Alfonso Marquez, and Jordan Baker. They're all about
Speaker 2: ten percent from a runs allowed greater than an average umpire.
Speaker 1: All right, who's here's where I have the most reliable
Speaker 1: unders thus far this year, and it's Mark Cautions. You know, historically,
Speaker 1: the reason that we like to do it only with
Speaker 1: the historical numbers that Mark haz is because those are
Speaker 1: more reliable. But now here's these are some of the
Speaker 1: names here. So four and a four under on Ben May,
Speaker 1: four and four under on Mike Esterbrook, four to four
Speaker 1: under on Tom Hanahan, uh five out, a five under
Speaker 1: on Alfonso Marquez and Alex Tosi.
Speaker 2: Well, no, Marquez was up towards the over. Now, these
Speaker 2: are the three guys that I have, and I would
Speaker 2: I would bank on these, and in fact I have locally. Uh,
Speaker 2: Bill Miller is a is an under guy. In fact,
Speaker 2: with the new rating system, he's he's close to twenty
Speaker 2: percent from a run suppression just now that's just based
Speaker 2: on strikeout percentage and walk percentage. And he's he's got
Speaker 2: a twenty four percent of strikeout rate, which is pretty
Speaker 2: high compared to most of these guys. Fit fit right
Speaker 2: close to league average, which is a twenty two point
Speaker 2: four percent. So he's almost two percent greater than average
Speaker 2: there and then a walk percentage that's I think, Gill
Speaker 2: it's the lowest in baseball. In fact, it is a
Speaker 2: six point nine percent, which is lower than league average.
Speaker 2: I think the league average about eight and a half percent.
Speaker 2: But you throw it into you know, a component aggregator
Speaker 2: er calculator. He's ERI is three point seventy five league
Speaker 2: average ERA are runs run rather four point six is
Speaker 2: the way I have it. So he's eighty point eighty
Speaker 2: one or nineteen percent from from an undersuppression standpoint. And
Speaker 2: so I would definitely if he's if you're thinking about
Speaker 2: playing an over and he's the umpire, I would not
Speaker 2: play the over goal.
Speaker 1: Okay, that's great advice. So I'm almost by me giving
Speaker 1: the short term ones, I'm almost polluting it. So once again,
Speaker 1: give your overs and give your under guy again, so
Speaker 1: we can.
Speaker 2: Have that three under top three under guys Bill Miller,
Speaker 2: Lance Barrett, Doug Eddings, top three over guys for me,
Speaker 2: Mark Wagner, Alfonso Marquez, and Jordan Baker. And that's based
Speaker 2: on last two and a half years strikeout percentage and
Speaker 2: walk percentage guys, and.
Speaker 1: You're the I love the way that you put it,
Speaker 1: which is This should not necessarily make you bet under
Speaker 1: or over based on their reliability, but it should certainly
Speaker 1: give you pause. If your lean is the other direction,
Speaker 1: that's that's the way to say it.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. Or it could confirm. Like let's say,
Speaker 2: let's say that you're let's say you don't even put
Speaker 2: my model with the chart I sent out. I put
Speaker 2: the umpires in so that that total is going to
Speaker 2: have that there. But let's say that you you don't
Speaker 2: do anything with umpires other than you set a line
Speaker 2: and you think that the line should be nine point
Speaker 2: I don't know six, and the line's nine. You're I'm
Speaker 2: gonna play over on this one, and then you look
Speaker 2: and you say, well, Bill Miller is the umpire. I
Speaker 2: would strongly suggest you don't play the over there. Gil.
Speaker 1: I like it. I love it. By the way, if
Speaker 1: I look at my real brief pause here, if I
Speaker 1: look at my pre season futures plays, futures season wins,
Speaker 1: prop bets, my two season win totals this year over
Speaker 1: on the Padres, over on the Cubs, those are often
Speaker 1: nice starts. Padre is not so much. Until recently. Padre's
Speaker 1: now at five hundred. They only have to go over
Speaker 1: eighty one and a half, so I'm not asking for much.
Speaker 1: Cubs have gotten off to a great star, but now
Speaker 1: they've they sort of mellowed a little bit. They're twenty
Speaker 1: four and eighteen, but I have them over eighty four
Speaker 1: and a half. So the Cubbies are looking good. In
Speaker 1: terms of my two season win tots, did you play
Speaker 1: season wins this year?
Speaker 2: I did? I played now. The one that's that the
Speaker 2: hero of it so far is the Brewers, and the
Speaker 2: goat is the the Tapa Bay Race. So those are
Speaker 2: the two that I have the most in onague and
Speaker 2: I was so far been good with Milwaukee and not
Speaker 2: so good with Tampa Bay.
Speaker 1: Gill you and I also, if I'm not mistaken, we
Speaker 1: both have NL Central exactas I have Cubs one Brewers too.
Speaker 1: You have it the other way, right Brewers.
Speaker 2: When it comes to yeah, yeah I do. I can't.
Speaker 2: I have to pull that up. I don't know what
Speaker 2: the price is, but I bet that I liked it.
Speaker 2: I still like it.
Speaker 1: Actually, Yeah, Brewer is a half game better than the
Speaker 1: Cubs right now, quarter of the way through the season roughly,
Speaker 1: so so far, so good on that. My long shot plays,
Speaker 1: my long shot play does not look so good, which
Speaker 1: is on the Giants. I didn't have the Giants winning
Speaker 1: the division or anything. I had the Giants as a
Speaker 1: I have the Giants to win what do I have them?
Speaker 1: And to win the NL and to win the World
Speaker 1: Series at long shot prices. And the reason for that
Speaker 1: was my thinking was, Listen, one of these teams in
Speaker 1: the NL has to make the playoffs that are not
Speaker 1: one of the usual suspects, and I figured the Giants,
Speaker 1: with their pitching, would be one of those teams. Logan
Speaker 1: Web has not been Logan Web esque, so the Giants
Speaker 1: a little bit behind the eight ball. But again only
Speaker 1: a quarter of the way through the season, so this
Speaker 1: could be like totally different. Come Q two.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean that's the thing. It's still really early.
Speaker 2: It's super early, I think so, And I don't know.
Speaker 2: I think that there's some I think that there's some
Speaker 2: upside with that Giants player. I actually had just a
Speaker 2: little bit not I mean, I'd like the Dodgers to
Speaker 2: win that division, but I thought, at an outside chance,
Speaker 2: I think they were twelve to one. I put just
Speaker 2: a little bit on the Giants to win that division,
Speaker 2: and the Dodgers are just so good Gils.
Speaker 1: Yeah, well that's why I never had him to win
Speaker 1: the division, right, Like, it's like, there's no way you're
Speaker 1: going to be the Dodgers in a division. In order
Speaker 1: to have the Padres winning the division. Who a quarter
Speaker 1: of the way through the season, who do your numbers
Speaker 1: have as the best team?
Speaker 2: The team with the Okay, so this is the team
Speaker 2: to win based on the component ratings, based on the
Speaker 2: rest of their schedule. And it's kind of changed. I
Speaker 2: think it's I think I was super bullish on on
Speaker 2: the Braves and I and I still kind of kind
Speaker 2: of am bullish on the Braves. But based on my
Speaker 2: simulations which I ran yesterday, the Dodgers forty two point
Speaker 2: eight percent chance to have the best record in baseball,
Speaker 2: and then the Braves are second at thirty three point
Speaker 2: nine percent. But they were the Braves where I thought
Speaker 2: that that was that was a great drainyard vanguard account.
Speaker 2: Bet bet the Braves. Uh no, you know what, I
Speaker 2: not the best record. I didn't get that. I didn't
Speaker 2: get that aggressive. It was it was to win the
Speaker 2: division and and you know so far, you know, and
Speaker 2: it's it's it's really not fair because you look at
Speaker 2: like the you look at the expected standings and you're
Speaker 2: you know, you got your you got your braves up there,
Speaker 2: and they're their top ten in baseball hitting. But it's
Speaker 2: kind of a letdown, right They're they're they're number nine
Speaker 2: and way to runs creative plus. But you're like, wait
Speaker 2: a second, this team was the best hitting baseball team
Speaker 2: in the world really in the history of the league,
Speaker 2: best slugging percentage in the history of baseball last year.
Speaker 2: So they there's yeah, you know, there's so they're ninth
Speaker 2: in baseball, which you know isn't bad, but it's a
Speaker 2: up down from last year. But anyway, the Dodgers, to
Speaker 2: answer your question, the Dodgers, to me have the best
Speaker 2: chance the chance of having the best record. Gil.
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. I played the Best Record March
Speaker 1: in April, and most people who watch a Numbers game,
Speaker 1: they saw they'd have to listen to it live or
Speaker 1: they saw the clip the clips out there in social
Speaker 1: media going through that last game and the roller coaster
Speaker 1: ride of how we lost that bet down to the
Speaker 1: last out. We were one out away from winning a
Speaker 1: sixty five to one on The Guardian's Best Record March April.
Speaker 1: I want to say a couple of things. One while
Speaker 1: I recommend obviously we lost it, but I recommend that
Speaker 1: bet to everybody who's a baseball fan. Doesn't have to
Speaker 1: be the Guardians, obviously, but if you really want a
Speaker 1: way that forces you to get immersed into the Major
Speaker 1: League baseball season when it begins, having a best record
Speaker 1: bet on a team of your choice March April is
Speaker 1: such the way to do it. I was more locked
Speaker 1: in to what the Guardians and their pursuers were doing
Speaker 1: on a nightly basis in April, then I was as
Speaker 1: more than any other pennant race in September. It was
Speaker 1: unbelievable how locked in we got with this bet. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's really a PSA for betting in general, right that
Speaker 1: it does that it enhances any enjoyment or any interest
Speaker 1: in something. But this was such a great way to
Speaker 1: get into the baseball season and make you make such.
Speaker 2: A good point too, because you're taking a lot of
Speaker 2: game to game variants out of it. And so that's
Speaker 2: what I've really enjoyed following you and you were with Gosh,
Speaker 2: you were with the Braves two years ago, right?
Speaker 1: Was that was? That was your the Brave, Well the Braves.
Speaker 1: The big hit was when the Braves were trailing the
Speaker 1: Mets a couple of years ago down the stretch. The
Speaker 1: Braves were available at plus money every day, and I
Speaker 1: made a dime bet on the Braves seventeen different times
Speaker 1: down the stretch.
Speaker 2: And it's so great. It's such a great way to
Speaker 2: do things. I mean, you were you had a conviction
Speaker 2: based on the way you handicap, and so then you
Speaker 2: take the variants out by playing it like a longer term.
Speaker 2: And I really enjoyed following the Indian sing with you
Speaker 2: because I think you did a good job and you
Speaker 2: don't have anything that's that's that's a program. You just
Speaker 2: did it. You know, you're looking at the schedule and
Speaker 2: with your background, and you just nailed it with their
Speaker 2: strength of schedule, and and they played it. You know,
Speaker 2: they played Oakland, did you know, fifteen hundred times? But
Speaker 2: that was that was part of your handicap.
Speaker 1: No, that was part of that idea.
Speaker 2: They can't.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it was that they played Oakland seven times, they
Speaker 1: played the White Sox three times, and they played Boston,
Speaker 1: who I had rated lower than most people. They had
Speaker 1: played Boston seven times, So it was seventeen games against
Speaker 1: those three teams. By the way, that's the handicap in
Speaker 1: May too, They've got a final stretch where they take
Speaker 1: on the Angels, the Rockies and the Nationals. The flourish
Speaker 1: at the end, So if they can just stay afloat,
Speaker 1: that's part of it. But it was also the March
Speaker 1: April thing was also how much can we avoid the
Speaker 1: inclement weather in Cleveland? So they didn't have a whole
Speaker 1: game till April eighth, right, so we only lost one game.
Speaker 1: Now we didn't see the Shane Bieber Tommy John surgery
Speaker 1: thing coming, so that sucked. To your point though, and
Speaker 1: you and I talked about this a little bit on
Speaker 1: the radio side. This is the beauty still of baseball.
Speaker 1: As much as we love football, and as let's we
Speaker 1: love any other sport, I'm into tennis. I bet tennis
Speaker 1: more than anything else. Baseball allows for all of these
Speaker 1: different kinds of bets. First of all, the menu before
Speaker 1: the season which allowed for a March April bet was there,
Speaker 1: But that length of period of time, right, thirty days
Speaker 1: or in this case thirty and some change, or in
Speaker 1: the Atlanta Braves win. The Pennant story it's perfect for baseball,
Speaker 1: right because you even talked about it, like you and
Speaker 1: I used to bet baseball every single day. You still do.
Speaker 1: I don't. I just it doesn't work for me anymore,
Speaker 1: that wall.
Speaker 2: And I think there might be something to that because
Speaker 2: you're taking the variance out, you're able to And I
Speaker 2: think from a fun standpoint too, I think you hit
Speaker 2: the nail on the head. That's a funner bet than
Speaker 2: if you're betting a guy who's got really good component
Speaker 2: numbers in a game and he just didn't have it
Speaker 2: that that day. That's right, It just it just fires
Speaker 2: you up. But you know, it's easy to get lost.
Speaker 2: I just want to make this point because I've I've
Speaker 2: fallen into this trap. It's easy to get lost into
Speaker 2: all the props that are that are offered on a
Speaker 2: daily basis. And it really took from a from an
Speaker 2: energy and an emotion, uh, and a time just a
Speaker 2: straight time consuming Uh. You know, takes takes your time
Speaker 2: to bet all these things. I think that the better
Speaker 2: idea is to go with a longer term and and
Speaker 2: and you mentioned well they have all these bets, Well
Speaker 2: they've done it on the longer term ones too, which
Speaker 2: is great. So you could you could pick it exactness,
Speaker 2: like you know, divisional exactness, which I thought was a
Speaker 2: great market this year. You could do stuff like the
Speaker 2: monthly stuff that you're doing, which was just fun. And
Speaker 2: you talk about just from a listing standpoint, And I
Speaker 2: really feel bad that you lost, because you got that
Speaker 2: was a hard That was a hard beat. That thing
Speaker 2: should have cash. But it was fun. It was a
Speaker 2: fun ride gilt.
Speaker 1: I'll never have a sicker beat. I got messages from
Speaker 1: Brent Musburger about it, from SVP about it. Right, you
Speaker 1: had all these people who were following this bet that
Speaker 1: we made, and it was just fascinating to see how
Speaker 1: people who weren't even involved got wrapped up in it.
Speaker 1: And I'm not just enough talking about those two because
Speaker 1: those two are known. We had listeners who were riding it,
Speaker 1: and then we had those that had nothing to do
Speaker 1: with the bet, who were like fans of the teams
Speaker 1: we were competing against, who were like rooting for us.
Speaker 1: It was really awesome in that way, and I know
Speaker 1: that sounds corny to some, but it made it so
Speaker 1: much fun. The whole thing. Before we get to the
Speaker 1: five innings and the first days. Let me ask you
Speaker 1: a couple questions based on your numbers. So you got
Speaker 1: the Dodgers, is your best? Who's your worst? You might
Speaker 1: have already mentioned it.
Speaker 2: It's between I got a page after this thing real
Speaker 2: fast here.
Speaker 1: Because a lot of people have this bet too, right.
Speaker 1: A lot of people are on the Marlins, on the
Speaker 1: White Sox, or on the Rockies when Trout. The day
Speaker 1: that Trout went down, I happened to time this. No,
Speaker 1: I didn't time it. We did a segment in the
Speaker 1: morning about worst record in baseball. I set out loud.
Speaker 1: I was like, oh wow, Angels forty to one is interesting,
Speaker 1: even though there were still like six games better than
Speaker 1: the other teams I just mentioned. And then that day
Speaker 1: Trout got it was announced Trout was hurt. So I
Speaker 1: think this was May first. If I'm not mistaken, And
Speaker 1: I immediately went to the sports we can bet the
Speaker 1: Angels thirty to one for worst record.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't have them for the worst record. You know,
Speaker 2: this Rockies team for me as a forty five percent
Speaker 2: chance of having the worst record. I hope it's the
Speaker 2: White Socks. I've got them at five to one preseason.
Speaker 2: They have a forty four point eight percent chance, so
Speaker 2: it's kind of neck and neck with them. And if
Speaker 2: you look at those bullpens are some of the worst
Speaker 2: bullpens I've seen ever. And that's something that goes into
Speaker 2: my simulations that I don't think the market looks at enough.
Speaker 2: I agree, and then I have I have the the
Speaker 2: Marlins with a ten percent chance to have to have
Speaker 2: the worst record. So it's really to me between those
Speaker 2: those three teams, at least at.
Speaker 1: This point, Gil, no one does the underbelly of a
Speaker 1: bullpen better than you do. And I mean that you
Speaker 1: have to look at that.
Speaker 2: I mean, they use these guys and and uh, you
Speaker 2: know that that's something I think we still get an advantage.
Speaker 2: I agree on a daily basis, you know, just really
Speaker 2: knowing those bullpens.
Speaker 1: This is It's also why I don't do daily baseball
Speaker 1: because I don't have the time to figure that out.
Speaker 1: And you're right, yeah, you know, three four years ago,
Speaker 1: five years ago, I could do baseball because starters were
Speaker 1: kept in longer. Well, once that started to get ratchet
Speaker 1: back and bullpens expanded in terms of their usage, you
Speaker 1: do have to know. Part of your thing in sports
Speaker 1: betting is to know when you're cooked at something, or you.
Speaker 2: Mason a really good thing. And then this is I
Speaker 2: think prevalent for for everybody. You know, the amount of
Speaker 2: time you have, you know you're limited to and you
Speaker 2: have to have a life too. It's like, you know,
Speaker 2: you have a relationship and you have a life outside,
Speaker 2: and you like to go out to dinner and stuff.
Speaker 2: You know, if you can sit in for sixteen hours
Speaker 2: in front of a TV screen and watching you know,
Speaker 2: some people do that. I don't. So you bring up
Speaker 2: a good point. You have to you have to understand, Okay,
Speaker 2: this is what I'm going to accomplish, this is what
Speaker 2: I'm going to be really good at. And you've found
Speaker 2: a really good niche in baseball. I mean, I love
Speaker 2: listening to your bad skills. So I think that that
Speaker 2: that's that's important to kind of realize your limitations. From
Speaker 2: a bandwidth standpoint, from a time standpoint.
Speaker 1: Gil Park has a life. He's underplaying his life, but
Speaker 1: he has one.
Speaker 2: I don't go to as many nice restaurants as you though,
Speaker 2: I think, and and and maybe I still have. I
Speaker 2: still have not been you know, tuned into this to
Speaker 2: the sushi restaurant, which I mean I like.
Speaker 1: What's up with that? That's a whole different episode. I think,
Speaker 1: all right, and then here's a question for you, because
Speaker 1: this will inform some of our bets before we gets
Speaker 1: at five innings and first innings, which are proprietary, which
Speaker 1: is of all of the teams that are currently below
Speaker 1: five hundred, we'll do it at that. And this question
Speaker 1: comes up because someone was asking me about the a's
Speaker 1: pardon me, the other day, and the A's are nineteen
Speaker 1: and twenty four, which is well better than most people
Speaker 1: thought they would be. And so someone was saying, how
Speaker 1: do I bet this? Do I bet them an over
Speaker 1: adjusted season win total? Do I bet them to make
Speaker 1: them playoffs? Do I bet them to finish with exactly
Speaker 1: the number six seed in the playoffs? I said, Bingo,
Speaker 1: that's the one. Like, if you're gonna take a shot,
Speaker 1: if you have some belief in them, and you got
Speaker 1: to have belief, right, or your numbers point you there,
Speaker 1: whatever it is, otherwise, don't do it at all. But
Speaker 1: I was like, if you're going to do one, make
Speaker 1: them do the bet that they finish exactly six in
Speaker 1: the postseason. That'll get you a lot of bang for
Speaker 1: your buck. So my question to you becomes of all
Speaker 1: the teams that are below five hundred right here, just
Speaker 1: a quarter into the season, who is the one that
Speaker 1: your number say is the best and ought to trigger
Speaker 1: in what ever form bets for people.
Speaker 2: I think I wouldn't sleep on the Astros. I think
Speaker 2: that they they're hitting, you know, it's pretty amazing. They
Speaker 2: are right up there. They're close. They're not quite to
Speaker 2: the Dodgers Braves level, but they're close by my numbers,
Speaker 2: and I think that's very important. And the one thing
Speaker 2: we talked about this yesterday a little bit on the show.
Speaker 2: You know, they're set they're set up seven, they're set
Speaker 2: up eight, and they're closer. They're all over thirty percent
Speaker 2: strikeout percentage, which is really good. You know, that's a
Speaker 2: that's a bray you Presley and hater of course, and
Speaker 2: I think that that's important. You know, they're going to
Speaker 2: have to get better starting pitching. But I don't have
Speaker 2: anybody running away with that division Gil and they were
Speaker 2: I think they were a price in the market plus
Speaker 2: three fifty yesterday to win that division. I have them
Speaker 2: closer to like plus three hundred ish, and that's that's
Speaker 2: based on the on the actual to date, or I
Speaker 2: look at last one hundred and fifty strikeout percentage, last
Speaker 2: three hundred walk percentage, last one hundred and fifty plate
Speaker 2: appearance ground ball percentage. That's that's those that timeframe for
Speaker 2: those starting pitchers. And I think that there's more ceiling
Speaker 2: on that. So I would say Houston would be a
Speaker 2: good idea at least.
Speaker 1: Gill all right, By the way, my computer went down,
Speaker 1: So I'm worried that I won't be able to conjure
Speaker 1: up my first inning stats. Oh no, I gotta find this.
Speaker 1: Let me do the Let me do the first five though,
Speaker 1: and these are these are provided now. I used to
Speaker 1: do these manually, and then odds Shark used to do
Speaker 1: this for us for many years, but they I don't
Speaker 1: know if they stopped doing it. Also, but the best
Speaker 1: five inning teams in baseball, so just what we did
Speaker 1: before for money lines for full games, if you just
Speaker 1: do it for five innings, because obviously a lot of
Speaker 1: people like to bet first fives. Any guesses as to
Speaker 1: who the most profitable first five team is in baseball
Speaker 1: this year, I would say.
Speaker 2: A starting pitching team that has goods starting pitching. I
Speaker 2: would say Philly. That's what I would say.
Speaker 1: Billy is number one, twenty eight, eleven and three. Remember
Speaker 1: you can obviously push on first fives. Twenty eight to
Speaker 1: eleven three, you'd be up over eight units betting on
Speaker 1: the Phillies first five. This year, they were, by the way,
Speaker 1: the March April champions. I'm surprised that they didn't get
Speaker 1: a ring for it, and they are currently tied with
Speaker 1: the Dodgers as the may leaders in wins. Any guesses
Speaker 1: on number two, three, four, or five. Oh, number six,
Speaker 1: you're gonna love number six too.
Speaker 2: I've just I got to think that the starting pitching gosh.
Speaker 2: I would say maybe the Yankees are up there somewhere.
Speaker 1: Yankees are not up there. Yankees are kind of middling.
Speaker 1: The Yankees are in eleventh, a little better than middle.
Speaker 1: So Phillies number one, Boston is number two. You'd be
Speaker 1: up seven and a half units with them because they're
Speaker 1: twenty two, thirteen and six. The Nationals are number three.
Speaker 1: Remember we saw the Nationals is up there at the
Speaker 1: top of the money line full game. They're also third
Speaker 1: and money line first five. They're seventeen, nineteen and three.
Speaker 1: You'd be up five point seventy five units. You're like,
Speaker 1: what are you talking about? They have a losing record,
Speaker 1: but remember they're dogs in most of these and this
Speaker 1: is a bizarro exercise. If you bet them in every
Speaker 1: single game. The Cubs are fourth, five units are the positive.
Speaker 1: The Royals are six, excuse me fifth, pardon me? Clubs
Speaker 1: are fourth. Royals are fifth. You'd be up four units.
Speaker 1: Guess who number six is? I'll give you.
Speaker 2: You haven't mentioned the Tigers, have you?
Speaker 1: Nope, haven't mentioned the Tigers yet. Tigers are Tigers. Tigers
Speaker 1: are middling.
Speaker 2: Wow, okay, all right, now, I guess you got.
Speaker 1: Me Chicago White Sox six sixteen nineteen and six. You'd
Speaker 1: be up three point eight units. Unsustainable, that's what you are.
Speaker 2: Well, you know what, it brings up a good point though,
Speaker 2: Like you know, you could have the crappiest team, but
Speaker 2: if they're getting the biggest price, you know, maybe maybe
Speaker 2: that's a good bed. So you have to always always
Speaker 2: measure the odds. Obviously when you bet, you have to
Speaker 2: you have to figure the odds into the into the ratings.
Speaker 2: So I mean that's that's a function of right, getting
Speaker 2: really good odds with a really bad team.
Speaker 1: Well, it's also what it is is because the record
Speaker 1: is sixty nineteen and six, which is not horrible. Right,
Speaker 1: So what it's telling us is that once the starter leaves,
Speaker 1: and this is to your point about the White Sox bullpen,
Speaker 1: they go to absolute crapple at that point.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they're bad. They are the worst team. So like
Speaker 2: from a run suppression standpoint, it's like, you know, it's
Speaker 2: an ex minus, you know, one hundred to one hundred scale, right,
Speaker 2: they're at one six, They're at one sixteen, and the
Speaker 2: next team would be the Rockies at one oh nine.
Speaker 2: So yeah, they're they're they're in a class by themselves,
Speaker 2: if you will.
Speaker 1: Milwaukee seven, Baltimore eight, Arizona nine, Guardians, ten, Yankees, eleven,
Speaker 1: Braves twelve, Dodgers thirteen, Padres fourteen. So the usual suspects
Speaker 1: kind of coming after that. By the way, the worst
Speaker 1: first five teams in baseball and Darleans Marlin's a third worst,
Speaker 1: third worst, Angels second worst. They would have cost you,
Speaker 1: by by way, both the Marlins and Angels would have
Speaker 1: cost you over ten units. The team that would cost
Speaker 1: you over fifteen units first five, and we have we
Speaker 1: did not mention them in the full games, but in
Speaker 1: first five. So this is the opposite of the White
Speaker 1: Sox basically where there's where their starters are horrific, but
Speaker 1: then their bullpen kind of stabilizes it.
Speaker 2: Any idea maybe Cardinals bingo. Yeah, Cardinals are an interesting
Speaker 2: team because there are no other bullpen numbers. They are
Speaker 2: pretty good. They're top three and a lot of the
Speaker 2: different metrics I use, uh, but they're just they're They're
Speaker 2: not top three in the standings, that's for sure, and
Speaker 2: and I think it's disappointed, and I want to see
Speaker 2: this guy do better. As Goldsman, he's he's had a
Speaker 2: he's had a poor year. Hopefully he can turn it around.
Speaker 2: You look at their Cardinals way to runs creative plus
Speaker 2: eighty eight, it's sixth worst in baseball. But the bullpen
Speaker 2: has been really good. Like I said, a lot of
Speaker 2: those advanced metric numbers, they're their top three in GILL.
Speaker 1: So that's that's really interesting to me, right, because that
Speaker 1: just shows you how these baseball teams are so many
Speaker 1: different parts and you have to sort of solve the puzzle.
Speaker 1: So the Cardinals first five this year, they're eleven, twenty
Speaker 1: five and five. You'd be down fifteen point oh five units.
Speaker 1: That's just horrible. So if you could put their bullpen
Speaker 1: with the White Sox starters, you might not have that
Speaker 1: bad of a team.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, and it brings up like you talked about,
Speaker 2: sitting in front of a screen for sixteen hours. But
Speaker 2: there's guys that do it, like Todd, and like Todd
Speaker 2: doesn't I think he does a lot of this. He
Speaker 2: does a lot of the bullpen like betting in games,
Speaker 2: knowing who the bullpens are good. And so that's an
Speaker 2: idea to do. If that team get gets behind and
Speaker 2: they've got the best bullpen in the league, you know,
Speaker 2: maybe that's a team you jump on in live betting.
Speaker 1: Gill Oh, so you're talking about you're talking about wish
Speaker 1: to Nev by the way.
Speaker 2: I'm talking about I wish Nev. Yeah. I think that
Speaker 2: he sits at home and has four screens in his
Speaker 2: mom's attic and he just live bets and there's nothing
Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not trying to put it down. I mean, yeah, no,
Speaker 2: part of me, part of me says I'm jealous, But
Speaker 2: I think I think that you could you could really
Speaker 2: do a lot with these with these bullpen ratings and
Speaker 2: live betting game.
Speaker 1: Well, remember one of the things that he's that he
Speaker 1: tracked one year and I don't think he does it anymore.
Speaker 1: He just did it. It was a sort of a one off.
Speaker 1: But here we are talking about best first five teams,
Speaker 1: and obviously people can now bet this accordingly because the
Speaker 1: next question is, all right, which of this is sustainable?
Speaker 1: Which is not? He was tracking inning sixth and beyond,
Speaker 1: so like he had this very unique thing for endgame
Speaker 1: where it's like, Okay, that's great that you're all betting
Speaker 1: first five. I want to see how bad these teams
Speaker 1: are six andy beyond. So he would actually put together
Speaker 1: the records, like if they started at zero zero after
Speaker 1: the first five, what would the records be for each
Speaker 1: of these teams? And you get some horrific results like
Speaker 1: oh my god, this team's bullpen never wins a game
Speaker 1: for their team.
Speaker 2: But that's really cool. That's a that's a good I
Speaker 2: could I can do that? Actually, I'm thinking on my head.
Speaker 1: I'd love to see it. I'd love to see it.
Speaker 2: I'll put them on my task list. I can probably
Speaker 2: have it done in a couple of weeks. Goo, we
Speaker 2: talked about it on the show. It'd be fun, all.
Speaker 1: Right, So which of those first five numbers are sustainable
Speaker 1: to you, like which of those are just you know,
Speaker 1: that's a fun story for the first you know, forty
Speaker 1: games of the season, but which is actually like a
Speaker 1: thing moving forward. Do you think that the Cardinals will
Speaker 1: continue to suck with their starting pitching? Do you think
Speaker 1: that the White Sox will continue to actually be pretty
Speaker 1: good with their starting pitching.
Speaker 2: I would say that that's unsustainable. The White Sox one,
Speaker 2: I'm not real, you know, they have a couple pieces there.
Speaker 2: Garrett Crochet is a good pitcher, but I have them collectively.
Speaker 2: They're starting pitching at one oh seven, which is towards
Speaker 2: the bottom there. And then Saint Louis, you know, to
Speaker 2: answer your question, that's surprising to me, I'd like this
Speaker 2: the Saint Louis pitching beginning with Sonny Gray, who I
Speaker 2: have either towards the top of the list or top three.
Speaker 2: So I think that that's on those Both those things
Speaker 2: that we went over, the White Sox and Saint Louis
Speaker 2: are unsustainable. But I want saying it. You say you
Speaker 2: saying that really well though.
Speaker 1: Gil like it's a little that king cool. So now
Speaker 1: I don't have my because my computer went down I
Speaker 1: don't have the first inning numbers. I'm curious, do you
Speaker 1: have any for the first time you.
Speaker 2: Pull that up, I can pull that up. Yeah, let
Speaker 2: me just go to you want you want to look
Speaker 2: at you want to look at like who's nerfy and
Speaker 2: stuff like that, or you want.
Speaker 1: To I want to know which pictures which starting pictures?
Speaker 1: And I'm talking about like a minimum because it's only
Speaker 1: forty games. Let's just talk about a minimum of thirty
Speaker 1: played appearances against at this point, which starting pitchers have
Speaker 1: the best and worst on base percentage against? And this
Speaker 1: is one of those things.
Speaker 2: Again, you want to use WHOBA or OBP, Like what
Speaker 2: do you what do you want to use?
Speaker 1: I usually historically on this show, I use OBP. But
Speaker 1: if you want to use Whoba insta, that's fine for
Speaker 1: this episode.
Speaker 2: No, no, I let's do OBP.
Speaker 1: Let's keep it pe.
Speaker 2: So yeah, so we go. It's it's we just mentioned
Speaker 2: him Crochet one twenty nine, OBP, Tanner Bibbi won sixty one, OBP,
Speaker 2: and Luis Casteel one eight two.
Speaker 1: Those are the best. Those are the best.
Speaker 2: Those are the best. Yeah. And then conversely, this is
Speaker 2: interesting interesting Hunter Brown five seventy eight oh, pep first
Speaker 2: in it, Jesus Joe Muskrove five twelve, and then Max
Speaker 2: Freed forty eight, very interesting games played, forty three batters
Speaker 2: face so uh, those are the those are the worst
Speaker 2: three and on base percentage GI.
Speaker 1: Those are interesting because the Padre's definitely got good when
Speaker 1: Musgrave sat. Let's put it that way, there's some correlation.
Speaker 2: That's a bad story. That's I hate to see these
Speaker 2: guys get injured, and we've had these guys get it
Speaker 2: good pictures. You know, you know you mentioned Bieber earlier
Speaker 2: that what a disappointment that was. And I'm not just
Speaker 2: talking selfishly because I had a bet on them all.
Speaker 2: I kind of am, but I mean just from from
Speaker 2: a standpoint if it's bad for baseball, and I don't
Speaker 2: know what you can do differently to fix it. I
Speaker 2: don't know if there is a fixed gil.
Speaker 1: I don't know if there is either. And it certainly
Speaker 1: wasn't confined to Bieber. Right, the Braves lost Spencer Strider,
Speaker 1: which we always said about Spencer Strider, it's like the
Speaker 1: human body was not meant to do this for him.
Speaker 2: Well, that and the fact, and I hate to make
Speaker 2: Vegan jokes because if I did that, that would be tasteless.
Speaker 2: But the guys, hey, you got to eat a little
Speaker 2: bit of meat there, I think to pitch at that level, Gil, I.
Speaker 1: Say that to my brother. By the way, my brother
Speaker 1: gets sick all the time. I will say, you go
Speaker 1: maybe a sandwich. Every once in a while, I would saying.
Speaker 2: Could you imagine not eating beef but not going to steakhash?
Speaker 2: I couldn't do it.
Speaker 1: Come on, all right, those are fascinating. Can you give
Speaker 1: the best three again in that first inning?
Speaker 2: I'm curious, absolutely, Gil Garrett Crochet point one two nine
Speaker 2: on base percentage, Tanner Bibbie point one six one, and
Speaker 2: we's Castillo yeah point one two, yeah, yeah.
Speaker 1: Tanner Bibby of the Guardians and Castillo of the Mariners
Speaker 1: who we needed to mow down the braves that final
Speaker 1: night of that March April bet and he did. Castillo
Speaker 1: at his best is still great. Now here's the thing,
Speaker 1: because a lot of people there's this cottage industry of
Speaker 1: what you just referred to as nurfe and your fee bets.
Speaker 1: So no runs first inning, yes, runs first inning. So
Speaker 1: let me just put these two things together. We're looking
Speaker 1: at these pitchers for first inning performance. It does not
Speaker 1: mean that you should immediately correlate that with yes and
Speaker 1: no first runs first inning runs. Jason Weiningard and I
Speaker 1: bet these first inning bets for years and years and
Speaker 1: years until it became and then it became popular in
Speaker 1: the mainstream in the last few years, and everybody in
Speaker 1: the mainstream gravitates towards no first no runs in the
Speaker 1: first inning because the brain immediately goes to, well, it's
Speaker 1: only one frame of baseball. Obviously, the no ought to
Speaker 1: be the thing you're betting on. And I'm here to
Speaker 1: tell you that your instinct actually ought to be on
Speaker 1: the pricings for yes runs. So a lot of times
Speaker 1: when you have aces on the hill, it's the same
Speaker 1: thing that Mark and I were talking about earlier when
Speaker 1: we were talking about those umpires. If you have a
Speaker 1: notion to bet a yes, which again I think your instinct,
Speaker 1: and if you're going to bet in these markets, the
Speaker 1: value is more often on the yes run scored. But
Speaker 1: if you see a guy like a Louis Castillo or
Speaker 1: a tanner bybe up there, maybe it should give you
Speaker 1: a little pause, is all I'm saying. But if it's
Speaker 1: just another big name, you know if it's you know,
Speaker 1: let me just pick pictures from the past. If it's
Speaker 1: Clayton Kershaw versus tim linsecom Actually that's where the value
Speaker 1: was on the Yes. So it's good to know these
Speaker 1: numbers as a sort of stay off in some cases.
Speaker 1: But if they're not on these lists, it shouldn't make
Speaker 1: you stay off, if you know what I mean.
Speaker 2: Anyway, I know you make it, you make a good point.
Speaker 2: Or conversely, like like you look at a guy like
Speaker 2: Max Freed, and I mean, you know, he's considered a
Speaker 2: great pitcher, but like not in the first inning this year,
Speaker 2: not in the first Yeah, yeah, So if you it
Speaker 2: should I think it should have have a kind of
Speaker 2: like a tiebreaker effect or something. I guess on your bet.
Speaker 1: I agree. That's a great way of putting it. It
Speaker 1: really should be, and that's why we go through it again.
Speaker 1: You won't find the first inning numbers anywhere else. But
Speaker 1: when Mark and I do these podcasts the first fives,
Speaker 1: it's amazing that first five stats are not more readily available.
Speaker 1: It really is, like it's really for something that is
Speaker 1: available as a bet every single day, in every single game.
Speaker 1: It's amazing how you can't find those stats that easily.
Speaker 1: So anyway, that's what we do. We'll do it again
Speaker 1: in forty games, if you will, halfway through the season.
Speaker 1: Q two. What's the biggest takeaway from everything we've talked about?
Speaker 1: What do you think is the is the most actionable
Speaker 1: betting thing or the thing that we should keep in
Speaker 1: mind the most umpires.
Speaker 2: No. I I think that that's that's really important to
Speaker 2: keep in mind. I think that that's that's something that
Speaker 2: that you need to do as a totals player. I
Speaker 2: think I think that my biggest takeaway from from the
Speaker 2: whole show, Gil would be to, like, you know, pick
Speaker 2: your spots. I think that, you know, I think that
Speaker 2: there's a and this is this could be a blessing
Speaker 2: and a curse. It's it's a curse to have all
Speaker 2: of these markets available because then you're mind swimming, You're
Speaker 2: you're behind, you're always feeling like you're up against from
Speaker 2: a time crunch. But it could be a blessing if
Speaker 2: you find a market that you like, and you did
Speaker 2: so well with the April market, you said'm gonna I'm
Speaker 2: gonna put some time into this is gonna be a
Speaker 2: fun bet take love that market. Be good at that market.
Speaker 2: And and that's what I think that the proliferation of
Speaker 2: betting has for me. I think you got you got
Speaker 2: to be able to balance it because I'm a I
Speaker 2: bring that up because I'm a victim of it, right, like,
Speaker 2: like there's so many bets, and and you can fall
Speaker 2: into so many, like you know, rabbit holes if you will,
Speaker 2: But but find something that you really enjoy doing and
Speaker 2: follow and put your energy into that. That's my takeaway. Gil.
Speaker 1: It's a great PSA. We say that about sports in
Speaker 1: general betting. You can't be expert in every sport. Well
Speaker 1: in baseball, you can't be expert in every little thing
Speaker 1: in baseball. So I think that's great advice. Love all
Speaker 1: that stuff. Love the five inning things. I think the
Speaker 1: five inning things always produce as a nugget, like that
Speaker 1: White Sox and Cardinals thing. That's gonna be fascinating in
Speaker 1: forty days to see if that's still up there. And
Speaker 1: if it's still up there and I haven't exploited it,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna beat myself up about it, right and be like,
Speaker 1: of course we had the numbers. We knew that. The
Speaker 1: White Sox, although they appear to suck on the Surface
Speaker 1: are actually pretty good in the first five. We knew
Speaker 1: that the Cardinals are actually pretty sucky in the first five.
Speaker 1: Whatever it is, so we just have to isolate those two.
Speaker 1: Mark all was a pleasure once again at base Winter
Speaker 1: baswinter dot com. The BetUS Show is a live YouTube show.
Speaker 1: Would it what's the quickest way for them to find that?
Speaker 2: What do they do? Well, that's easy. All you gotta
Speaker 2: do is log into YouTube, put lb show bet us
Speaker 2: on a search bar and you'll get us, all right.
Speaker 1: And these kinds of things. You provide little nuggets like
Speaker 1: this every day. Season has been going so far, so good.
Speaker 2: It's been pretty good. I'm right about like on the
Speaker 2: on the scoreboard, I'm right it right, it even right now.
Speaker 2: So so try, you know, trying to get better. You know,
Speaker 2: last last year was good. We were we were ahead
Speaker 2: of the game. But the show, I think at the
Speaker 2: show there's there's myself and two other analysts and then
Speaker 2: the host. We're we're above above winning, which I think,
Speaker 2: and you say, well, and I think it's only a
Speaker 2: couple three units above winning, but we're a quarterway into
Speaker 2: the season. That's hard to do, and that's hard to
Speaker 2: do in betting. To to be to be positive as
Speaker 2: a show. So uh, and the show is super fun,
Speaker 2: a lot of a lot of good humor, a lot
Speaker 2: of good stats. But it's it's a it's a fun
Speaker 2: show as well, guys, so check it out. Uh. I
Speaker 2: appreciate that the p s a gil and and uh
Speaker 2: you know you guys are welcome. The other thing is too,
Speaker 2: which is cool about this show is you can get
Speaker 2: into the chat. There's a little chat box when the
Speaker 2: show's live, I guess, and you can ask us any
Speaker 2: questions you want to you with the reason but I
Speaker 2: don't really hold back. I mean, and you can. You
Speaker 2: can ask what you want and I'll tell you.
Speaker 1: Physick has jumped in there before. Correct.
Speaker 2: Oh, absolutely, Steve likes to get in there. We we
Speaker 2: like to have parlay debates or we have had some
Speaker 2: heated parlay debates in that chat real. Well, that's for sure.
Speaker 1: Well let me close with that, because what Mark is
Speaker 1: referring to is that Mark always comes on a numbers
Speaker 1: game on the radio side, and he always has a
Speaker 1: parlay two team two leg parlay. And Fsick's comment to me,
Speaker 1: Steve Fesick, the only back to back winner of the
Speaker 1: Hilton Super contest was, here's this unbelievably intelligent guy who
Speaker 1: clearly knows all his baseball, and then he ends every
Speaker 1: segment with a parlay, and he hates parlays and is
Speaker 1: correct me if I'm wrong. His biggest, his most simple
Speaker 1: parlay counter is you're not getting the best number on
Speaker 1: each leg at the same book, right, That's his basic thing.
Speaker 2: No, he's got some he's got some theories about that,
Speaker 2: and there's some there's some counter theories too, But I
Speaker 2: think for me, what it's come down to, you Gil,
Speaker 2: is I really love making a two team you know,
Speaker 2: lay the wood parlay if you will, but really two
Speaker 2: good pitchers and two good teams, and I don't think
Speaker 2: they price them high enough, and so I really enjoy
Speaker 2: making that play. And it comes back down to you know,
Speaker 2: you know, like you said, I've spent half my adult
Speaker 2: life doing this. Yes, at this point, I'm going to
Speaker 2: do stuff that I really enjoy, and I enjoy making
Speaker 2: that play, and I think that there's I think there's
Speaker 2: there's counter arguments to the parlay from a risk management standpoint,
Speaker 2: that sort of thing being as good or better than
Speaker 2: than betting the game straight. But you know, we do
Speaker 2: all that stuff in the chat box, and you're welcome
Speaker 2: to come in there and give your two sounds worth.
Speaker 2: That's great.
Speaker 1: And know, you know what I always say is part
Speaker 1: of the one of the things that a guy like him,
Speaker 1: by the way, he's as smart as they come, Steve,
Speaker 1: but one of the things that he never considers about
Speaker 1: parlays also. And this is going to be like it's
Speaker 1: going to make some people's heads explode, but some people
Speaker 1: who do parlays, they are stopping themselves from betting other
Speaker 1: crap while their parlay is still alive. And so there
Speaker 1: is a certain unquantifiable benefit in some cases to those people.
Speaker 1: If that makes sense.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, it totally does. And the other thing that
Speaker 2: for me from from an emotional standpoint, if I and
Speaker 2: I bet one the other day on a Friday night,
Speaker 2: I think they were both saying minus two hundred favorites
Speaker 2: and they both lost, you know, that would have really
Speaker 2: brought me down the next day. I would have been
Speaker 2: I would have been distraught. Really, I mean, I mean,
Speaker 2: I'm kind of being dramatic, but I but I would
Speaker 2: have been. Yeah, And so like I'm like, why why
Speaker 2: am I doing that? I like both teams I'll put
Speaker 2: them in a parlay and then if I lose, I
Speaker 2: lose one unit, and and so it's a risk management situation.
Speaker 2: And I think that you know, doing we've we've done
Speaker 2: the math, that we've really gotten nerdy on it on
Speaker 2: the show, and I don't really think that there's that
Speaker 2: big of an advantage either either way personally. And like
Speaker 2: I said, I enjoy making the play and that's why
Speaker 2: I do it.
Speaker 1: Gil, It's so much fun to talk about. I appreciate
Speaker 1: you so much.
Speaker 2: Mark.
Speaker 1: This is and I'll say it again, it's it's a
Speaker 1: little older than the megapod and guessing lines in Vegas lifestyle.
Speaker 1: Even like we've done it that long, and I still
Speaker 1: enjoyed nerding out on this every forty games. And I'd
Speaker 1: love talking baseball with you every day. Man, Thank you
Speaker 1: so much.
Speaker 2: You know my pleasure is such an enjoyable show. It's
Speaker 2: enjoyable to listen to your show during during the week
Speaker 2: too as well. And you know that whole Cleveland thing
Speaker 2: was was a hell of a lot of fun.
Speaker 1: Hey, we got a shot in May too. We'll see,
Speaker 1: we'll see you gotta beat the Rangers tonight, though, you
Speaker 1: gotta start there Thank you, Mark Borchride, everybody at base
Speaker 1: winner again bet us on YouTube. Just plug it in
Speaker 1: and you will get all of Mark's insights. Thank you, brother,
Speaker 1: appreciate it, no problem, gil My pleasure, Thank you for listening.
Speaker 1: Good luck with all your baseball players. Hope there were
Speaker 1: some nuggets that will lead to some winning bets in there.