Speaker 1: Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George
Speaker 1: Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe, Getty.
Speaker 2: Arm Strong and Getty Enough Hee Armstrong and Getty.
Speaker 3: Yeah, we finally made it Election Day. Yeah, but it's
Speaker 3: that super chill time when the whole country it takes
Speaker 3: on the vibe of two am waffle House parking lot.
Speaker 3: Of course, there's a good chance we won't know the
Speaker 3: final results, which is kind of frustrating. It's like sitting
Speaker 3: through a twenty four hour gender reveal party in the
Speaker 3: couple's like, you guys, guys, come back on Friday.
Speaker 2: We're just gonna do pat. Yeah.
Speaker 4: I remember it was the day over before the election
Speaker 4: in two thousand.
Speaker 2: Joe and I were still doing this same show twenty
Speaker 2: four years dead end gig. Anyway, it was.
Speaker 4: It was looking like it was going to be close,
Speaker 4: and I remember us saying, wouldn't it be crazy if
Speaker 4: we didn't know who even won today? We had to
Speaker 4: wait till tomorrow. I mean that because that hadn't happened
Speaker 4: in our lifetimes. As always, you find out that night
Speaker 4: it's solid, everybody believes it, and you go on with
Speaker 4: your life. And then it ended up being mean ment,
Speaker 4: and now we kind of are in a place where
Speaker 4: you hardly expect to find out who won, uh looking
Speaker 4: at Ian Bremmer just tweeted this out. When Americans elections
Speaker 4: have been called since nineteen eighty four, so going all
Speaker 4: the way back to then within an hour of the
Speaker 4: polls closing every election eighty four, eighty eight, ninety two,
Speaker 4: ninety six, which is why we had the attitude we
Speaker 4: had going into two thousand. Then you had a thirty
Speaker 4: six day in two thousand. In two thousand and four,
Speaker 4: it took till the next morning and eight it took
Speaker 4: a couple hours twenty twelve, couple hours twenty sixteen, few hours,
Speaker 4: twenty twenty long time.
Speaker 2: As we all know how it's going to go tonight,
Speaker 2: I do not know.
Speaker 4: Here are two things I'm going to be watching just
Speaker 4: because the pundits that I listen to, And I'm going
Speaker 4: to give West Coast times because I don't like the
Speaker 4: belligerent East Coast always giving East Coast times as if
Speaker 4: I'm supposed to do the math when I live in
Speaker 4: California all the time.
Speaker 2: So these are West Coast times.
Speaker 4: North Carolina and Georgia close at four and four thirty,
Speaker 4: and they will know results fairly quickly.
Speaker 2: If Kamala Harris.
Speaker 4: According to Mark Calprin and a couple other punnets, if
Speaker 4: if Kamala Harris wins one or both of those, she's
Speaker 4: almost certainly going to win. If she wins North Carolina Georgia,
Speaker 4: and that'll be middle of the afternoon for those of
Speaker 4: us on the on the west side of the.
Speaker 2: Country, early enough for everybody.
Speaker 4: Yeah, if she wins one or both of those, she's
Speaker 4: probably going to win.
Speaker 2: Most likely Trump wins them, and then we're still, you know,
Speaker 2: up in the air.
Speaker 4: But that to me, then I'll just turn off the
Speaker 4: TV and I'll do something else, and I'll listen to music,
Speaker 4: and I'll wake up in the morning and I'll walk
Speaker 4: out to the UH driveway and get the morning paper
Speaker 4: and see who won, because I'm not going to follow
Speaker 4: all that crap.
Speaker 2: If it's Kamala winning, you know, I won't get no million.
Speaker 5: I'm going to I'm gonna put on my Captain America
Speaker 5: outfit and put on my lace up, my riot and
Speaker 5: shoes and get ready to smash stuff up because that's
Speaker 5: what the media keeps telling me. I'm going to do,
Speaker 5: right yeah, no kidding.
Speaker 4: Here's a little infotainment for you on what we can
Speaker 4: look for tonight.
Speaker 6: Here's what to expect as being wait for the results.
Speaker 6: Forty three states can begin processing absentee and mail in
Speaker 6: ballots before election day. This typically involves verify the voter's
Speaker 6: information and eligibility and then opening the envelopes who it
Speaker 6: can be tabulated by a voting machine. Washington, DC, and
Speaker 6: seven states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don't begin these steps
Speaker 6: until today, so just keep that in mind.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that slows things down the states that don't start
Speaker 4: till today.
Speaker 2: More on that now, ask.
Speaker 6: For the count Fourteen states and DC do not allow
Speaker 6: counting until the polls close. Oo Twenty three states allow
Speaker 6: counting to begin before the polls close. However, different states
Speaker 6: have different laws. In North Carolina, for instance, in person
Speaker 6: early votes can't be counted before the polls close, but
Speaker 6: mail absentee ballots received before election day can be tabulated.
Speaker 6: In Georgia, election officials can begin working on early in
Speaker 6: person votes when the polls open, but they can't tabulate
Speaker 6: them until the polls close.
Speaker 7: And then.
Speaker 6: Finally, twelve states allow both processing and counting to begin
Speaker 6: before election day. This is the case in Nevada and Arizona.
Speaker 6: Officials from Aricopa County, Arizona's most populous county, expect to
Speaker 6: report fifty five percent of the total vote and seventy
Speaker 6: to seventy five percent of early ballots by the time
Speaker 6: poles close.
Speaker 5: All right, the entire audience's eyes glazed over eight seconds
Speaker 5: into that and realized, I'm never going to comprehend, much
Speaker 5: less memorise all of your problaration. I will tell you
Speaker 5: this two interesting things.
Speaker 2: Number One, to something like two thirds of the population
Speaker 2: of Arizona is in Maricopa County. It's like everybody practically
Speaker 2: in the county that includes Phoenix. Secondly, this list of
Speaker 2: the states.
Speaker 5: That matter, the states that it all hinges upon Pennsylvania.
Speaker 4: Excellent point. I would say to any journalists out there,
Speaker 4: any talk about polls closing or anything like that in
Speaker 4: anything other than the seven swing states is worthless information.
Speaker 2: Forty three states do this, in seventeen states do that.
Speaker 5: On the other hand, half of those seventeen and triple
Speaker 5: the number of the other thirty four who this that
Speaker 5: nobody can.
Speaker 2: Come only matters in six to seven states.
Speaker 5: So, for example, Pennsylvania last time around, when it was
Speaker 5: quite close. Biden declared victory after the AP called Pennsylvania
Speaker 5: three and a half days later.
Speaker 2: And it's likely.
Speaker 5: Because of Pennsylvania's various vote counting procedures that it'll take
Speaker 5: a while to know. Well, Godor Shapiro says, they've cleaned
Speaker 5: that up a lot, they get I hope that's true.
Speaker 5: They got a lot more employees, they've got a better method. Yeah, Arizona.
Speaker 5: And it's funny because so many of the swing states
Speaker 5: have various wrinkles in their voting laws that tend to
Speaker 5: make it a longer process to figure out who won.
Speaker 5: Arizona permits election officials to begin processing mail in ballots
Speaker 5: after early voting begins, but crucially requires officials to wait
Speaker 5: until after the polls closed to count them. During the
Speaker 5: twenty two mid terms, some twenty percent of mail in
Speaker 5: votes were dropped off on election day, requiring time consuming
Speaker 5: verification procedures to ensure the ballots were legit Well, one
Speaker 5: of the.
Speaker 4: Problems with comparing anything to twenty twenty is we're in
Speaker 4: the midst of the worst pandemic in a century, and
Speaker 4: things were very weird.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that was twenty two for the record, but yes,
Speaker 5: that is absolutely valid, they mentioned, and again some of
Speaker 5: the states have cleaned up their acts. But just for instance,
Speaker 5: it took three and a half days to Can't to
Speaker 5: call Pennsylvania, it took six sixteen days to call Georgia,
Speaker 5: it took ten days to call North Carolina, and it
Speaker 5: took eight days to call Alaska.
Speaker 2: Nobody cares about Alaska.
Speaker 5: Now Alaskan's care about I care about Alaska, But electorally speaking,
Speaker 5: let's talk about Moose.
Speaker 4: Just more interesting, just for all the punditry I take in.
Speaker 4: I think we're gonna get a result tonight, especially if
Speaker 4: you're a West coast since it's you know, it might
Speaker 4: be one or two in the morning if you're on
Speaker 4: the East coast. But I think we're gonna get a
Speaker 4: result tonight, either like a solid result or a we
Speaker 4: know how it's gonna turn out. They can't call it
Speaker 4: because statistically you could catch up, but very unlikely.
Speaker 2: I think we'll know. I just I think that's the
Speaker 2: way it's gonna break. I hope you're right. I think
Speaker 2: that would be much better for the country, no doubt
Speaker 2: about that. And then just wanted to speak to and
Speaker 2: this is.
Speaker 4: One value out of hearing that long list of how
Speaker 4: everybody does it, including states that we know how they're
Speaker 4: gonna vote. There's an argument always from a certain crowd
Speaker 4: of why don't we make this more uniform. Well, the
Speaker 4: fact that it's so not uniform is one of the
Speaker 4: reasons it's so difficult to rig an election in this country.
Speaker 4: Every precinct, every county, every state has such a different
Speaker 4: way of doing things.
Speaker 2: It would be really, really hard to rig a national election.
Speaker 2: Which is good and you're absolutely right.
Speaker 5: We are listing some of the horrific policies of Kamala
Speaker 5: and the left last hour, including packing the Supreme Court,
Speaker 5: ending the filibuster, throwing the borders open.
Speaker 2: I mean, the list goes on and on.
Speaker 5: We left out, We left out the fact that they
Speaker 5: want to nationalize all election procedures and controls, which is
Speaker 5: a horrible idea. And boy, the party that's in favor
Speaker 5: of ballot harvesting and spreading ballots willy nilly across the
Speaker 5: land and voting for six months and all, they also
Speaker 5: want to control the process from DC.
Speaker 2: That's so interesting.
Speaker 4: There's a slim possibility that Kamala Harris win the.
Speaker 2: Electoral College and loses the popular vote.
Speaker 4: Very slim, but it could happen, which would be fun
Speaker 4: because everybody would flip their scripts on whether or not
Speaker 4: they support the electoral college versus the popular vote.
Speaker 2: That would be hilarious to watch.
Speaker 5: And again, I'm sorry, Michael, Michael, give me fifty two again.
Speaker 5: Enjoy today the election day, especially for this reason.
Speaker 8: If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible. No,
Speaker 8: it's not that we will not have the opportunity to
Speaker 8: ever cast a ballot.
Speaker 2: Again, that's dumb. Okay. God is the last American election.
Speaker 2: According to Oprah Winfrey, it Republicans prevails.
Speaker 4: So I respect her more if she's pandering than if
Speaker 4: she actually believes that.
Speaker 2: God.
Speaker 5: I just saw ABC's Yeah, I'd rather deal with a
Speaker 5: liar than a lunatic.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 4: ABC's headline was after the shortest election in US history
Speaker 4: or campaigns, which is technically true, But did it feel
Speaker 4: that way to anybody?
Speaker 8: Now?
Speaker 2: Boy? Let me up, I've had enough. Okay.
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Speaker 4: If you want celebrities saying things that are almost certainly
Speaker 4: not true and hyperbole on the closing moments of Silly Season.
Speaker 4: Elon Musk was on Joe Rogan yesterday and said, if
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris wins, she will shut down Twitter.
Speaker 2: I don't think that's true.
Speaker 4: But the important thing out of that conversation was Joe
Speaker 4: Rogan endorsed Donald Trump. That endorsement, if any matter, is
Speaker 4: miles more important than whether or not the Washington Post
Speaker 4: is endorsed Kamala Harris. Oh yeah, yeah, monumentally more important
Speaker 4: in terms of undecided working class people out there who
Speaker 4: listen to Joe Rogan. Absolute freaking lutely, that's more important.
Speaker 4: Didn't get near the attention as whether the Washington Post
Speaker 4: endorsed or not, or when j Lo comes out and
Speaker 4: makes an endorsement.
Speaker 2: Are you crazy, Joe? Honesty?
Speaker 5: Taylor Swift's endorsement was more important than the Washington Post.
Speaker 5: Oh absolutely, absolutely, that got enormous attention.
Speaker 2: It's funny the contrast between the attention paid to the
Speaker 2: two endorsements, isn't it? It's odd? This is something going
Speaker 2: on here.
Speaker 4: We got an interesting question for our old friend lanhie
Speaker 4: Chin coming up a little later this hour. Give us
Speaker 4: a handful of reasons why each candidate could win, or
Speaker 4: if they won, why they won, which I think will
Speaker 4: be interesting from a super smart guy, among other things.
Speaker 1: On the way, art, heyety, I I don't feel any
Speaker 1: different from when I was sixteen.
Speaker 2: I still think.
Speaker 1: About boys, and I still hate my hair.
Speaker 2: You know that has not changed.
Speaker 1: You know what the big difference is. Tell us I
Speaker 1: can say no, and younger people are so access to please.
Speaker 1: Oh yes, I can do that. Oh sure I want that.
Speaker 1: Oh yes, that's a good idea. I've learned to say
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. That doesn't really work for me. I've never
Speaker 1: been able to say that.
Speaker 2: Ever.
Speaker 4: That's an eighty five year old explaining what it's like
Speaker 4: to be eighty five versus when she was younger. She
Speaker 4: still thinks about boys, hates her hair, but now can
Speaker 4: say no to things.
Speaker 2: Hmm, excellent. Here's the personal growth coming up? Coming up?
Speaker 5: Could California elect Donald Trump?
Speaker 2: What? I know?
Speaker 5: It's an odd question. It's a bit of a trick question.
Speaker 5: And speaking of could this or that, could a monkey,
Speaker 5: given infinite time rite Shakespeare's complete works before the universe
Speaker 5: dives dies? Okay, so that's a long running conundrum. You know,
Speaker 5: the whole infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number
Speaker 5: of typewriters, given an infinite time, would eventually produce the
Speaker 5: complete works of Shakespeare.
Speaker 2: I don't think I've ever bought that. So this is
Speaker 2: answering the question. Well, yeah, although.
Speaker 5: This one went with it's a variation of that, the
Speaker 5: infinite monkey theorem that given infinite time, could a monkey
Speaker 5: produce the works of Shakespeare?
Speaker 4: I suppose technically, if you've got infinite time, you can't
Speaker 4: say no to anything.
Speaker 5: Well, right, but that's if that is like a groovy
Speaker 5: and funny way to explain what infinity is to somebody. Okay, great,
Speaker 5: but no, no, damn monkeys are going to produce the
Speaker 5: works of Shay. Can you imagine? And the first time
Speaker 5: I heard that, I said, I'm not buying that. No,
Speaker 5: not happening.
Speaker 2: Can you imagine?
Speaker 5: You get like to the I don't remember the last
Speaker 5: thing Shakespeare wrote, but you.
Speaker 2: Get to the end and like on the last page,
Speaker 2: there's a typo.
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, that's the great Simpsons joke where mister Burns
Speaker 4: walks in a room full of monkeys at typewriters and
Speaker 4: he pulls a piece of paper out at one of
Speaker 4: the monkeys typewriters and he reads it was the best
Speaker 4: of times.
Speaker 2: It was the blurst of times.
Speaker 5: He's angry because a monkey's had a typo right, hilarious.
Speaker 2: So they were able to type literature. They just made
Speaker 2: a mistake on one word, and he was angry. Also
Speaker 2: read three search.
Speaker 4: I just was looking at this schedule. Both candidates have
Speaker 4: huge schedules today, radio interviews, rallies, appearances, So they must think,
Speaker 4: you know, I supposed to make sense if half the
Speaker 4: votes have already been cast, half the votes haven't, but
Speaker 4: boy she got half.
Speaker 2: Then the tiny amount that could be persuaded by one
Speaker 2: more radio interview or rally, which has got to be
Speaker 2: a tiny number.
Speaker 5: Yeah, oh yeah, absolutely. I just think everybody's thinking about
Speaker 5: twenty twenty. We're a vanishingly small number of votes decide
Speaker 5: the election. But I happened to know a person who
Speaker 5: was absolutely determined to vote. Uh, but they are perhaps
Speaker 5: attending a graduate school that's somewhat distant from their home
Speaker 5: address and was gonna have to track and then decided
Speaker 5: not to, then decided to again, or maybe you got to.
Speaker 5: You're a truck driver and your route gets all screwed
Speaker 5: up and you're gonna get home late anyway, and you're thinking,
Speaker 5: I don't know, I'm just one vote.
Speaker 2: They're just trying to get.
Speaker 5: That last tiny squeeze, that last drop of turnout.
Speaker 4: Sure, got a sick kid at home today. You know,
Speaker 4: you can be planning to do something, the kids sick,
Speaker 4: and you think, yeah, I just got too much going on.
Speaker 2: It can happen unless there's just that one little tweak.
Speaker 2: Do you want to hear?
Speaker 5: The California thing is long we're talking about this could
Speaker 5: California elect Donald Trump? It's from the Wall Street Journal
Speaker 5: editorial board. There has been so much outflow of people
Speaker 5: from California, New York and Illinois that it might swing
Speaker 5: the election for Donald Trump. What it's plausible that the
Speaker 5: population flight from those states to some of this year's
Speaker 5: electoral battlegrounds could help Trump win a second term. And
Speaker 5: they mention it's not only that a lot of conservative
Speaker 5: to moderate people have left the Blue states but population
Speaker 5: shifts in the twenty tens reduced the Democrats advantage in
Speaker 5: the electoral college. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 5: and West Virginia each lost a vote in the electoral
Speaker 5: college because they lost a rep in the House of Representatives.
Speaker 5: Texas picked up two. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and
Speaker 5: Oregon each added one. And they go through a bunch
Speaker 5: of scenarios where Kamala Harris starts the count with a
Speaker 5: built in lead that's three votes smaller than Joe Biden's
Speaker 5: in twenty twenty, the sure blue states are three electoral
Speaker 5: votes fewer than they were, and they run through various
Speaker 5: scenarios where if she won a fairly predictable slate of states,
Speaker 5: she'd be two electoral votes short just because of the
Speaker 5: change in population over the last decade.
Speaker 4: Man, I'm taking in some of the cable news channel media,
Speaker 4: just through highlights and stuff like that. Democrat panels seem
Speaker 4: a little panicked. I don't know what insider information they have,
Speaker 4: but there it looks like there's some finger pointing going on.
Speaker 4: We're gonna talk to Lennie jen about the election coming
Speaker 4: up stay with us.
Speaker 2: Are strong and getty.
Speaker 9: You say, Kamala, you're horrible at your job. You don't
Speaker 9: know what you're doing. You're a low IQ individual. We
Speaker 9: want smart people, we want cunning people. We're dealing with
Speaker 9: the smartest people in the world. We don't want your
Speaker 9: negotiating nuclear deals because you don't want there.
Speaker 10: You don't know what the word nuclear means. Kamala, Yeah fired,
Speaker 10: Get the hell out of here.
Speaker 2: I ask you one last time. Are you ready to
Speaker 2: make your voices heard? Do we believe in freedom? Do
Speaker 2: we believe in opportunity?
Speaker 8: Do we believe in the promise of America?
Speaker 11: Wait? Running to find.
Speaker 12: Yeah? Bless what could be better after hearing from our
Speaker 12: two sterling candidates than Lady Gaga lifting her voice in.
Speaker 2: Saul turn it Up? Michael standy side. Oh boy, I
Speaker 2: just saw Why am I? What have I done that
Speaker 2: I'm being punished like this? I just saw Van Jones off.
Speaker 7: I can't stand it.
Speaker 4: I just saw Van Jones on CNN saying I don't
Speaker 4: think closing with all the celebrities was a good idea.
Speaker 4: The difference is working class, blue collar people Michigan, Wisconsin
Speaker 4: and Pennsylvania. I don't think Lady Gaga and all these celebrities.
Speaker 4: Was a good idea that's from Van Jones, which I
Speaker 4: think is interesting.
Speaker 2: Hmmm, he's a serious man. Speaking of serious men.
Speaker 5: Please welcome lon each end of the show, Lonie David
Speaker 5: and Diane Staffy, Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at
Speaker 5: the Hoover Institution and the Director of Domestic Policy Studies
Speaker 5: at Stanford University.
Speaker 2: Lon Hey, greetings, how.
Speaker 7: Are you Happy election day?
Speaker 2: Gentlemen?
Speaker 5: Thank you, thank you, just just taking off on what
Speaker 5: we were just talking about, like saying happy surgery days.
Speaker 11: I guess everyone's ready. Everyone's ready, much like the surgery
Speaker 11: for it to be done well.
Speaker 4: And what's going to be done. The voting is going
Speaker 4: to be done. We certainly aren't done with fighting over
Speaker 4: the results and then the policy decisions that are coming
Speaker 4: with either of these two candidates.
Speaker 2: That could be something right.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean unfortunately, because you know, you look at
Speaker 11: California as an example, how long it takes us to
Speaker 11: count ballots. You know, we probably won't have a result
Speaker 11: in some of these really close congressional races for even
Speaker 11: a couple of weeks. And then of course there's all
Speaker 11: the discussion about what will happen in the new Congress
Speaker 11: and the new administration, and that doesn't happen till January,
Speaker 11: so it is an extended conversation. You wish that we
Speaker 11: could have a system of slightly more efficient vote counting
Speaker 11: and that people had a lot of faith and trust in,
Speaker 11: but this is where we're at, you know, this is
Speaker 11: the system we have, and I think it is going
Speaker 11: to be a little bit before we get a result.
Speaker 5: You know, I hadn't intended to talk about this, but
Speaker 5: as long as you brought it up. I saw a
Speaker 5: piece in the Journal not long ago that Democrats make
Speaker 5: California a battleground state, talking about how there are several
Speaker 5: important congressional races that used to be pretty easy to
Speaker 5: call blue, but there's been a certain amount of backlash
Speaker 5: in California.
Speaker 11: Yeah, and actually, you know, amongst the folks listening to
Speaker 11: the show, you've got people who are in these really
Speaker 11: important targeted districts, and they go all the way up
Speaker 11: and down the state. So in the Central Valley, you've
Speaker 11: got one that's near Stockton that picks up a good
Speaker 11: part of San Joaquin County, just a sliver of Contra
Speaker 11: Costa County and runs a little bit south from there,
Speaker 11: you've got one in the Central Valley, two in the
Speaker 11: Central Valley. Actually, then you go down to Orange County
Speaker 11: and you've got several down there that are important, including
Speaker 11: one that extends into northern San Diego County. So there
Speaker 11: are actually, I would say probably five or six really
Speaker 11: competitive congressional districts that Republicans have not just a decent
Speaker 11: shot in, but probably should win at least a number
Speaker 11: of them. So it does really argue against the notion
Speaker 11: of blue hegemony in California. I think these seats are
Speaker 11: actually really important to determining control of Congress, and that's
Speaker 11: why it's really important for folks to vote.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that'd be good for America in my opinion.
Speaker 4: So speaking of America in the national race, Harris versus Trump,
Speaker 4: give us if Harris wins, she ends up being the winner.
Speaker 2: What are the three reasons she won? Wow? Great?
Speaker 7: Question.
Speaker 11: Number one is that she's able to reassemble key elements
Speaker 11: of I guess what she'd call the Obama Coalition, and
Speaker 11: that's you know, union members, that's African American voters, that's
Speaker 11: Hispanic voters, and it's suburban whites. And if she's able
Speaker 11: to win, it's going to be because that coalition has
Speaker 11: essentially come back together.
Speaker 7: That'd be number one. Number two, she's able to activate women.
Speaker 11: And this is the great unanswered question we have as
Speaker 11: we sit here at seven thirty am Pacific. How many
Speaker 11: women are going to vote and how are they going
Speaker 11: to vote? If the if you look at American politics,
Speaker 11: the two biggest predictors of how someone's going to vote
Speaker 11: are their gender and their education level. And if you
Speaker 11: if you look at an elector tonight that is overwhelmingly
Speaker 11: female versus male, that will give you some indication that
Speaker 11: she's doing either better than expected or certainly online with
Speaker 11: the expectations to make this a very close race. And
Speaker 11: then the last thing I'll just say is the abortion issue.
Speaker 11: This is something that caused the twenty twenty two elections
Speaker 11: to turn out the way they did, And what I
Speaker 11: mean by that is that this so called red wave
Speaker 11: we were expecting really never materialized in the way that
Speaker 11: we thought it would because there was so much backlash
Speaker 11: and ways to that decision the Supreme Court to overturn
Speaker 11: Roe versus Wade. If she's winning or if she wins
Speaker 11: this election, it will be because that issue activated key
Speaker 11: voters in key states, and it doesn't show up as
Speaker 11: a top issue necessarily compared to the economy and immigration,
Speaker 11: but it is a top issue for some of those
Speaker 11: voters I talked about earlier, part of the Obama coalition,
Speaker 11: a lot of the women voters that may show up
Speaker 11: to support her, Those will be the three reasons why
Speaker 11: she wins.
Speaker 4: Well, I think you just tipped your hand. What are
Speaker 4: the three reasons if Trump ends up the victor that
Speaker 4: he won?
Speaker 10: Well?
Speaker 11: Number one, you know, I mean the flip side of
Speaker 11: that is his ability to create a coalition that's unlike
Speaker 11: any other Republican has created before, and that means driving
Speaker 11: up margins, particularly with urban voters.
Speaker 7: We've talked a little.
Speaker 11: Bit about the way in which he's managed to erode
Speaker 11: the Democrat advantage on black voters and on Hispanic voters.
Speaker 7: If that really does end.
Speaker 11: Up being true, that'll go a long way toward explaining
Speaker 11: a Trump success. The second thing I would say is
Speaker 11: it's his ability to activate white working class voters who
Speaker 11: don't traditionally vote. We call them low propensity voters, but
Speaker 11: you're talking about folks who don't make a habit of
Speaker 11: going to the ballot box. These are people who might
Speaker 11: only vote for Donald Trump and not for anybody else.
Speaker 11: And that's why a lot of these Senate candidates who
Speaker 11: are Republicans, even in these swing states, are going to
Speaker 11: have issues potentially even if Trump wins, He's got to
Speaker 11: win by a lot for them to get across the
Speaker 11: finish line in some cases. But it is really about
Speaker 11: how he's able potentially to activate these voters. And then
Speaker 11: the last thing is just the issue focus. If we
Speaker 11: look at exit polling tonight, and by far the key
Speaker 11: issues that voters are keying in on are at the
Speaker 11: economy and immigration, it could be a very good night
Speaker 11: for Donald Trump.
Speaker 5: Hey, this can be a very very brief answer if
Speaker 5: you want, how are you setting yourself up emotionally for that?
Speaker 5: How long is it going to take booze figure out
Speaker 5: who's won?
Speaker 2: Booze? Is the answer? Yes? How about that? That's going
Speaker 2: to take?
Speaker 7: That is the answer?
Speaker 5: Or is that impossible to say? And if it's impossible,
Speaker 5: it's fine.
Speaker 11: Well, you know, look, I think if the polls and
Speaker 11: the estimates are right, it is going to take us
Speaker 11: at least a few days to resolve some of these states. Now, look,
Speaker 11: there's a probability, there's a possibility that this isn't close
Speaker 11: at all. I mean, if we look and we see,
Speaker 11: for example, that Kamala Harris is competitive in North Carolina,
Speaker 11: and by competitive I mean she's either ahead or within
Speaker 11: striking distance. The same goes for Georgia, this could be
Speaker 11: over very quickly for her. On the flip side of it,
Speaker 11: if we see that Donald Trump's margins in Pennsylvania are
Speaker 11: much more significant than we would have expected coming from
Speaker 11: the early vote, and that she is not making up
Speaker 11: enough ground in the urban core of Philadelphia, it could
Speaker 11: be over.
Speaker 7: Very early for Donald Trump tonight. So here's what I
Speaker 7: would say.
Speaker 11: I'd say probably a sixty percent likelihood that this goes
Speaker 11: into tomorrow or beyond, no, maybe seventy percent, and then
Speaker 11: there's a thirty percent likelihood that either Trump or Harris
Speaker 11: is declared the winner overnight tonight.
Speaker 5: So going from I want a short answer to this,
Speaker 5: one can be book length. In fact, if you'd like
Speaker 5: to talk to the show Wow, we will just tell
Speaker 5: you when to break for commercials and listen. But you know,
Speaker 5: it's been said that a loss can be a gift
Speaker 5: in a way because you can reassess and reinvent your
Speaker 5: party and go forward to greater success in the future,
Speaker 5: abandon some of the bad habits that drag you down.
Speaker 2: Each party if they lose, what is.
Speaker 5: The big change you think they should make and feel
Speaker 5: free to throw in whether you think they're smart or
Speaker 5: self aware enough.
Speaker 2: To do it.
Speaker 7: Well, let's start with the Democrats.
Speaker 11: I think it is really important for them to understand
Speaker 11: that the excesses of the last few years on a
Speaker 11: whole set of issues, whether I would call them cultural
Speaker 11: issues or economics in terms of using stuff like the
Speaker 11: Inflation Reduction Act, massive increases in spending. The combination of
Speaker 11: that excess has driven them into a position in many
Speaker 11: states where they just aren't as competitive as they used
Speaker 11: to be. The old kind of working class union base
Speaker 11: of the Democratic Party has been eroded in many states,
Speaker 11: and that's because they have simply gone too far. And
Speaker 11: if you ask voters in a lot of places, they'll
Speaker 11: tell you that they think that the progressive excesses of
Speaker 11: the Democratic Party are what have turned them off and
Speaker 11: have ultimately made them support Donald Trump, who made them So.
Speaker 4: Are you trying to tell me that the average guy
Speaker 4: that works in the machine shop is not down with
Speaker 4: the termal of TX.
Speaker 11: Well, I mean, that's that's a great example. That's a
Speaker 11: great example. And it's not even the term. It's being
Speaker 11: made to feel badly that you don't use the term,
Speaker 11: or being made to feel badly that you don't adhere
Speaker 11: to a certain orthodoxy. And I think that that excess
Speaker 11: on the left has really cost them electorally in many
Speaker 11: of these places we're talking about.
Speaker 7: Whether it's in so again, I.
Speaker 5: Don't have a PhD, but you're suggesting that never ending
Speaker 5: judgment and condensation, condescension rather starts to wear on people.
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, I know it's crazy.
Speaker 11: It's crazy, right, I mean, we we we we all
Speaker 11: love a good lecture.
Speaker 7: I guess what.
Speaker 11: About the Republicans, you know there, I think it will be.
Speaker 2: Don't nominate Trump again?
Speaker 11: Well, I know, I mean I think that that that
Speaker 11: they may be part of it is, but but I
Speaker 11: think the other part of it is there. There does
Speaker 11: need to be a little bit of a re examination
Speaker 11: because I think that over the last couple of years
Speaker 11: there are issues on which Democrats and Republicans have actually converged.
Speaker 11: And one of those I've mentioned already, which is really
Speaker 11: leaning in on a bigger role for the federal government,
Speaker 11: and that includes on on spending, it includes on uh,
Speaker 11: you know, on on abortion rights, for example. There's been
Speaker 11: some conversation about this as well, but the basic point
Speaker 11: is that if you look at the nineteen eighties and
Speaker 11: nineteen nineties, there was a contrast, a pretty clear contrast
Speaker 11: in terms of the role of government, in terms of
Speaker 11: the way in which Republicans and Democrats approached it, approach
Speaker 11: certain economic questions, et cetera.
Speaker 7: And there was a contrast.
Speaker 11: And over the last couple of years some of that
Speaker 11: contrast I think has arguably eroded, and I think Republicans
Speaker 11: have to figure out again, are there elements of that
Speaker 11: let's call it traditional approach to economic policy, for.
Speaker 7: Example, that need to be renovated.
Speaker 11: I mean, aside from the Trump question, which I think
Speaker 11: is obviously the big lingering eight hundred pound gorilla, if
Speaker 11: you will, which is to what degree was it a
Speaker 11: function of nominating him? I think there will be some
Speaker 11: conversation about that, But there's a bigger issue that goes
Speaker 11: well beyond Trump, which is what doesn't mean to be
Speaker 11: a Republican? I mean, like, what does that actually mean anymore?
Speaker 11: And I think there's been, aside from being the Party
Speaker 11: of Trump, which is what it's been for the last
Speaker 11: better part of eight years. Now, I think people will
Speaker 11: need to really sit back and say, hey, you know,
Speaker 11: do we have a viable center right conservative movement in
Speaker 11: this country and what does it look like in contrast
Speaker 11: to what the Democrats are proposing.
Speaker 2: Lani Chen, who I believe the stat is right.
Speaker 4: You got more Republican votes in twenty twenty two than
Speaker 4: anybody in the country.
Speaker 11: More votes, Yeah, more including Versantis, that's correct.
Speaker 2: Which is amazing.
Speaker 4: Yeah, and unfortunately he lost because California is a communist state.
Speaker 5: Correct, you said it, not me right, one party kleptocracy.
Speaker 5: Lani Chen of the Hoover Institution in Stanford University.
Speaker 2: We look forward to chatting with you post election. Lani.
Speaker 2: It makes sense of the.
Speaker 11: Mess absolutely, And if you haven't voted yet, get out
Speaker 11: there and vote today.
Speaker 2: Cool. That is.
Speaker 4: That is an amazing stat because Ron de Santis won
Speaker 4: by like twenty points in a very large state. He
Speaker 4: still didn't get him any as many votes as Lanhi
Speaker 4: Chen got. And Lani Chen was endorsed by what the
Speaker 4: La Times, the San Francisco Chronicle. I mean everybody needs still.
Speaker 5: Major publication website in California, the scratch Still the politics
Speaker 5: are so stupid that there were so many people that
Speaker 5: just could not vote for an R under any circumstances.
Speaker 4: And just you know, I hope we moved past that
Speaker 4: at some point. I mean, just as a nation, not
Speaker 4: even California, and the well.
Speaker 5: California is unique, and that the order came down from
Speaker 5: all the public employee unions.
Speaker 2: Yeah whatever, vote D and.
Speaker 5: They voted D so and nominated half a crook and
Speaker 5: half a moron or elected rather.
Speaker 4: One of the most respected posters American, Nate Silver, ran
Speaker 4: his simulator last night with all the polls in eighty
Speaker 4: thousand times eighty thousand simulations.
Speaker 2: How did it turn out? Who won?
Speaker 4: We'll hit you with that, among other things on the way.
Speaker 10: I mean, Nancy Pelosi, she's a crooked person. She is
Speaker 10: a bad person, evil, she's an evil, sick crazy.
Speaker 1: Bit.
Speaker 10: Oh no, it starts with it B. But I won't
Speaker 10: say it.
Speaker 2: Wow, I want to say it.
Speaker 10: I want to say but Franklin Graham said, sir, I
Speaker 10: love your speaking ability, and I love your storytelling, but honestly,
Speaker 10: it would be even better if you wouldn't use foul language,
Speaker 10: and I don't use much, you know, every once in
Speaker 10: a while, and it's never a real bad word. It's
Speaker 10: you know, it's like never bad and so I try
Speaker 10: to it here. But he's wrong about one thing. It
Speaker 10: is a little better when you use the foul language
Speaker 10: because it's more actress.
Speaker 4: So either wing either Today is kind of the end
Speaker 4: of the whole Trump thing after nearly a decade or
Speaker 4: four more years as president of the most powerful nation
Speaker 4: on earth.
Speaker 2: And we'll see in Islan.
Speaker 5: He was hinting at at least what does the Republican
Speaker 5: Party look like without Trump?
Speaker 2: Good question. Nobody knows the answer to that. What's its platform?
Speaker 10: So?
Speaker 2: How interested are people in the election?
Speaker 4: I came across this yesterday to help booster my willingness
Speaker 4: to talk about this. What percentage of people rate their
Speaker 4: interest in the election at a nine out of ten
Speaker 4: or higher? So nine out of ten or ten out
Speaker 4: of ten, And it's about eighty percent of people. And
Speaker 4: I gotta believe of people listening to the show or
Speaker 4: taking in podcasts or talk radio or whatever, you're in
Speaker 4: that crowd. But eighty percent of people rate it as
Speaker 4: a nine or ten Their level of interest. That is something.
Speaker 5: So I want to be surprised to hear that, honestly,
Speaker 5: given the spectacular turnout across the country in early voting.
Speaker 2: Yeah so, Nate.
Speaker 4: Silver is one of the more respected pollsters in America.
Speaker 4: He ran his final simulation after midnight last night of
Speaker 4: how he thought it was going to turn out. He
Speaker 4: plugs in all the poles and all the waiting, and
Speaker 4: he's got his own methodology, which I don't think he
Speaker 4: shares all of it.
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs beat the Eagles twenty seven to twenty
Speaker 2: What does that mean? They run the computer simulations eighty
Speaker 2: thousand times before the Super Bowl too?
Speaker 4: Oh okay, gotcha, So maddens thing. He ran his simulation
Speaker 4: eighty thousand times. What's interesting about this to me is
Speaker 4: with all the polling plugged in and everything like that,
Speaker 4: Harris won forty thousand and twelve eighty thousand times. He
Speaker 4: ran the whole simulation. She won twelve more times than Trump.
Speaker 2: So there you have it. It's pretty close. Apparently.
Speaker 5: Oh, I feel like the gods are mocking us or something.
Speaker 5: There were punished, right, punished or something.
Speaker 4: I don't even know, as we've been saying it doesn't
Speaker 4: seem like if your goal was to get the country
Speaker 4: fifty to fifty, you could get this close possible.
Speaker 5: Oh no, no, no, back to an infinite number of
Speaker 5: monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters know, an infinite
Speaker 5: number of political operatives with an infinite amount of cash
Speaker 5: could not produce an election this close.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just looking up at cable news channels.
Speaker 4: I observed something worth commenting on, among other things, we'd
Speaker 4: like to hear your texts too and emails.
Speaker 2: Stay with us, Armstrong and Getty