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Speaker 1: Broadcasting live from the Abraham Lincoln Radio Studio, the George

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Speaker 1: Washington Broadcast Center, Jack Armstrong and Joe, Getty.

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Speaker 2: Arm Strong and Getty Enough Hee Armstrong and Getty.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, we finally made it Election Day. Yeah, but it's

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Speaker 3: that super chill time when the whole country it takes

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Speaker 3: on the vibe of two am waffle House parking lot.

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Speaker 3: Of course, there's a good chance we won't know the

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Speaker 3: final results, which is kind of frustrating. It's like sitting

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Speaker 3: through a twenty four hour gender reveal party in the

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Speaker 3: couple's like, you guys, guys, come back on Friday.

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Speaker 2: We're just gonna do pat. Yeah.

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Speaker 4: I remember it was the day over before the election

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Speaker 4: in two thousand.

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Speaker 2: Joe and I were still doing this same show twenty

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Speaker 2: four years dead end gig. Anyway, it was.

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Speaker 4: It was looking like it was going to be close,

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Speaker 4: and I remember us saying, wouldn't it be crazy if

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Speaker 4: we didn't know who even won today? We had to

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Speaker 4: wait till tomorrow. I mean that because that hadn't happened

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Speaker 4: in our lifetimes. As always, you find out that night

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Speaker 4: it's solid, everybody believes it, and you go on with

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Speaker 4: your life. And then it ended up being mean ment,

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Speaker 4: and now we kind of are in a place where

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Speaker 4: you hardly expect to find out who won, uh looking

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Speaker 4: at Ian Bremmer just tweeted this out. When Americans elections

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Speaker 4: have been called since nineteen eighty four, so going all

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Speaker 4: the way back to then within an hour of the

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Speaker 4: polls closing every election eighty four, eighty eight, ninety two,

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Speaker 4: ninety six, which is why we had the attitude we

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Speaker 4: had going into two thousand. Then you had a thirty

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Speaker 4: six day in two thousand. In two thousand and four,

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Speaker 4: it took till the next morning and eight it took

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Speaker 4: a couple hours twenty twelve, couple hours twenty sixteen, few hours,

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Speaker 4: twenty twenty long time.

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Speaker 2: As we all know how it's going to go tonight,

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Speaker 2: I do not know.

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Speaker 4: Here are two things I'm going to be watching just

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Speaker 4: because the pundits that I listen to, And I'm going

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Speaker 4: to give West Coast times because I don't like the

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Speaker 4: belligerent East Coast always giving East Coast times as if

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Speaker 4: I'm supposed to do the math when I live in

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Speaker 4: California all the time.

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Speaker 2: So these are West Coast times.

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Speaker 4: North Carolina and Georgia close at four and four thirty,

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Speaker 4: and they will know results fairly quickly.

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Speaker 2: If Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 4: According to Mark Calprin and a couple other punnets, if

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Speaker 4: if Kamala Harris wins one or both of those, she's

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Speaker 4: almost certainly going to win. If she wins North Carolina Georgia,

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Speaker 4: and that'll be middle of the afternoon for those of

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Speaker 4: us on the on the west side of the.

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Speaker 2: Country, early enough for everybody.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, if she wins one or both of those, she's

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Speaker 4: probably going to win.

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Speaker 2: Most likely Trump wins them, and then we're still, you know,

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Speaker 2: up in the air.

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Speaker 4: But that to me, then I'll just turn off the

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Speaker 4: TV and I'll do something else, and I'll listen to music,

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Speaker 4: and I'll wake up in the morning and I'll walk

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Speaker 4: out to the UH driveway and get the morning paper

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Speaker 4: and see who won, because I'm not going to follow

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Speaker 4: all that crap.

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Speaker 2: If it's Kamala winning, you know, I won't get no million.

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Speaker 5: I'm going to I'm gonna put on my Captain America

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Speaker 5: outfit and put on my lace up, my riot and

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Speaker 5: shoes and get ready to smash stuff up because that's

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Speaker 5: what the media keeps telling me. I'm going to do,

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Speaker 5: right yeah, no kidding.

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Speaker 4: Here's a little infotainment for you on what we can

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Speaker 4: look for tonight.

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Speaker 6: Here's what to expect as being wait for the results.

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Speaker 6: Forty three states can begin processing absentee and mail in

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Speaker 6: ballots before election day. This typically involves verify the voter's

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Speaker 6: information and eligibility and then opening the envelopes who it

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Speaker 6: can be tabulated by a voting machine. Washington, DC, and

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Speaker 6: seven states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don't begin these steps

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Speaker 6: until today, so just keep that in mind.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that slows things down the states that don't start

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Speaker 4: till today.

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Speaker 2: More on that now, ask.

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Speaker 6: For the count Fourteen states and DC do not allow

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Speaker 6: counting until the polls close. Oo Twenty three states allow

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Speaker 6: counting to begin before the polls close. However, different states

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Speaker 6: have different laws. In North Carolina, for instance, in person

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Speaker 6: early votes can't be counted before the polls close, but

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Speaker 6: mail absentee ballots received before election day can be tabulated.

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Speaker 6: In Georgia, election officials can begin working on early in

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Speaker 6: person votes when the polls open, but they can't tabulate

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Speaker 6: them until the polls close.

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Speaker 7: And then.

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Speaker 6: Finally, twelve states allow both processing and counting to begin

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Speaker 6: before election day. This is the case in Nevada and Arizona.

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Speaker 6: Officials from Aricopa County, Arizona's most populous county, expect to

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Speaker 6: report fifty five percent of the total vote and seventy

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Speaker 6: to seventy five percent of early ballots by the time

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Speaker 6: poles close.

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Speaker 5: All right, the entire audience's eyes glazed over eight seconds

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Speaker 5: into that and realized, I'm never going to comprehend, much

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Speaker 5: less memorise all of your problaration. I will tell you

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Speaker 5: this two interesting things.

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Speaker 2: Number One, to something like two thirds of the population

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Speaker 2: of Arizona is in Maricopa County. It's like everybody practically

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Speaker 2: in the county that includes Phoenix. Secondly, this list of

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Speaker 2: the states.

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Speaker 5: That matter, the states that it all hinges upon Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 4: Excellent point. I would say to any journalists out there,

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Speaker 4: any talk about polls closing or anything like that in

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Speaker 4: anything other than the seven swing states is worthless information.

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Speaker 2: Forty three states do this, in seventeen states do that.

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Speaker 5: On the other hand, half of those seventeen and triple

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Speaker 5: the number of the other thirty four who this that

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Speaker 5: nobody can.

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Speaker 2: Come only matters in six to seven states.

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Speaker 5: So, for example, Pennsylvania last time around, when it was

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Speaker 5: quite close. Biden declared victory after the AP called Pennsylvania

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Speaker 5: three and a half days later.

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Speaker 2: And it's likely.

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Speaker 5: Because of Pennsylvania's various vote counting procedures that it'll take

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Speaker 5: a while to know. Well, Godor Shapiro says, they've cleaned

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Speaker 5: that up a lot, they get I hope that's true.

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Speaker 5: They got a lot more employees, they've got a better method. Yeah, Arizona.

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Speaker 5: And it's funny because so many of the swing states

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Speaker 5: have various wrinkles in their voting laws that tend to

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Speaker 5: make it a longer process to figure out who won.

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Speaker 5: Arizona permits election officials to begin processing mail in ballots

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Speaker 5: after early voting begins, but crucially requires officials to wait

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Speaker 5: until after the polls closed to count them. During the

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Speaker 5: twenty two mid terms, some twenty percent of mail in

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Speaker 5: votes were dropped off on election day, requiring time consuming

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Speaker 5: verification procedures to ensure the ballots were legit Well, one

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Speaker 5: of the.

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Speaker 4: Problems with comparing anything to twenty twenty is we're in

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Speaker 4: the midst of the worst pandemic in a century, and

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Speaker 4: things were very weird.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that was twenty two for the record, but yes,

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Speaker 5: that is absolutely valid, they mentioned, and again some of

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Speaker 5: the states have cleaned up their acts. But just for instance,

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Speaker 5: it took three and a half days to Can't to

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Speaker 5: call Pennsylvania, it took six sixteen days to call Georgia,

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Speaker 5: it took ten days to call North Carolina, and it

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Speaker 5: took eight days to call Alaska.

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Speaker 2: Nobody cares about Alaska.

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Speaker 5: Now Alaskan's care about I care about Alaska, But electorally speaking,

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Speaker 5: let's talk about Moose.

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Speaker 4: Just more interesting, just for all the punditry I take in.

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Speaker 4: I think we're gonna get a result tonight, especially if

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Speaker 4: you're a West coast since it's you know, it might

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Speaker 4: be one or two in the morning if you're on

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Speaker 4: the East coast. But I think we're gonna get a

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Speaker 4: result tonight, either like a solid result or a we

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Speaker 4: know how it's gonna turn out. They can't call it

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Speaker 4: because statistically you could catch up, but very unlikely.

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Speaker 2: I think we'll know. I just I think that's the

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Speaker 2: way it's gonna break. I hope you're right. I think

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Speaker 2: that would be much better for the country, no doubt

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Speaker 2: about that. And then just wanted to speak to and

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Speaker 2: this is.

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Speaker 4: One value out of hearing that long list of how

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Speaker 4: everybody does it, including states that we know how they're

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Speaker 4: gonna vote. There's an argument always from a certain crowd

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Speaker 4: of why don't we make this more uniform. Well, the

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Speaker 4: fact that it's so not uniform is one of the

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Speaker 4: reasons it's so difficult to rig an election in this country.

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Speaker 4: Every precinct, every county, every state has such a different

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Speaker 4: way of doing things.

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Speaker 2: It would be really, really hard to rig a national election.

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Speaker 2: Which is good and you're absolutely right.

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Speaker 5: We are listing some of the horrific policies of Kamala

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Speaker 5: and the left last hour, including packing the Supreme Court,

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Speaker 5: ending the filibuster, throwing the borders open.

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Speaker 2: I mean, the list goes on and on.

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Speaker 5: We left out, We left out the fact that they

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Speaker 5: want to nationalize all election procedures and controls, which is

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Speaker 5: a horrible idea. And boy, the party that's in favor

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Speaker 5: of ballot harvesting and spreading ballots willy nilly across the

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Speaker 5: land and voting for six months and all, they also

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Speaker 5: want to control the process from DC.

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Speaker 2: That's so interesting.

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Speaker 4: There's a slim possibility that Kamala Harris win the.

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Speaker 2: Electoral College and loses the popular vote.

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Speaker 4: Very slim, but it could happen, which would be fun

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Speaker 4: because everybody would flip their scripts on whether or not

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Speaker 4: they support the electoral college versus the popular vote.

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Speaker 2: That would be hilarious to watch.

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Speaker 5: And again, I'm sorry, Michael, Michael, give me fifty two again.

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Speaker 5: Enjoy today the election day, especially for this reason.

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Speaker 8: If we don't show up tomorrow, it is entirely possible. No,

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Speaker 8: it's not that we will not have the opportunity to

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Speaker 8: ever cast a ballot.

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Speaker 2: Again, that's dumb. Okay. God is the last American election.

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Speaker 2: According to Oprah Winfrey, it Republicans prevails.

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Speaker 4: So I respect her more if she's pandering than if

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Speaker 4: she actually believes that.

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Speaker 2: God.

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Speaker 5: I just saw ABC's Yeah, I'd rather deal with a

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Speaker 5: liar than a lunatic.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: ABC's headline was after the shortest election in US history

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Speaker 4: or campaigns, which is technically true, But did it feel

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Speaker 4: that way to anybody?

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Speaker 8: Now?

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Speaker 2: Boy? Let me up, I've had enough. Okay.

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Speaker 2: Prize picks, run your game.

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Speaker 4: If you want celebrities saying things that are almost certainly

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Speaker 4: not true and hyperbole on the closing moments of Silly Season.

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Speaker 4: Elon Musk was on Joe Rogan yesterday and said, if

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Speaker 4: Kamala Harris wins, she will shut down Twitter.

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Speaker 2: I don't think that's true.

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Speaker 4: But the important thing out of that conversation was Joe

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Speaker 4: Rogan endorsed Donald Trump. That endorsement, if any matter, is

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Speaker 4: miles more important than whether or not the Washington Post

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Speaker 4: is endorsed Kamala Harris. Oh yeah, yeah, monumentally more important

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Speaker 4: in terms of undecided working class people out there who

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Speaker 4: listen to Joe Rogan. Absolute freaking lutely, that's more important.

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Speaker 4: Didn't get near the attention as whether the Washington Post

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Speaker 4: endorsed or not, or when j Lo comes out and

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Speaker 4: makes an endorsement.

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Speaker 2: Are you crazy, Joe? Honesty?

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Speaker 5: Taylor Swift's endorsement was more important than the Washington Post.

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Speaker 5: Oh absolutely, absolutely, that got enormous attention.

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Speaker 2: It's funny the contrast between the attention paid to the

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Speaker 2: two endorsements, isn't it? It's odd? This is something going

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Speaker 2: on here.

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Speaker 4: We got an interesting question for our old friend lanhie

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Speaker 4: Chin coming up a little later this hour. Give us

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Speaker 4: a handful of reasons why each candidate could win, or

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Speaker 4: if they won, why they won, which I think will

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Speaker 4: be interesting from a super smart guy, among other things.

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Speaker 1: On the way, art, heyety, I I don't feel any

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Speaker 1: different from when I was sixteen.

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Speaker 2: I still think.

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Speaker 1: About boys, and I still hate my hair.

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Speaker 2: You know that has not changed.

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Speaker 1: You know what the big difference is. Tell us I

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Speaker 1: can say no, and younger people are so access to please.

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Speaker 1: Oh yes, I can do that. Oh sure I want that.

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Speaker 1: Oh yes, that's a good idea. I've learned to say

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry. That doesn't really work for me. I've never

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Speaker 1: been able to say that.

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Speaker 2: Ever.

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Speaker 4: That's an eighty five year old explaining what it's like

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Speaker 4: to be eighty five versus when she was younger. She

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Speaker 4: still thinks about boys, hates her hair, but now can

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Speaker 4: say no to things.

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Speaker 2: Hmm, excellent. Here's the personal growth coming up? Coming up?

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Speaker 5: Could California elect Donald Trump?

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Speaker 2: What? I know?

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Speaker 5: It's an odd question. It's a bit of a trick question.

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Speaker 5: And speaking of could this or that, could a monkey,

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Speaker 5: given infinite time rite Shakespeare's complete works before the universe

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Speaker 5: dives dies? Okay, so that's a long running conundrum. You know,

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Speaker 5: the whole infinite number of monkeys on an infinite number

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Speaker 5: of typewriters, given an infinite time, would eventually produce the

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Speaker 5: complete works of Shakespeare.

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Speaker 2: I don't think I've ever bought that. So this is

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Speaker 2: answering the question. Well, yeah, although.

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Speaker 5: This one went with it's a variation of that, the

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Speaker 5: infinite monkey theorem that given infinite time, could a monkey

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Speaker 5: produce the works of Shakespeare?

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Speaker 4: I suppose technically, if you've got infinite time, you can't

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Speaker 4: say no to anything.

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Speaker 5: Well, right, but that's if that is like a groovy

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Speaker 5: and funny way to explain what infinity is to somebody. Okay, great,

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Speaker 5: but no, no, damn monkeys are going to produce the

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Speaker 5: works of Shay. Can you imagine? And the first time

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Speaker 5: I heard that, I said, I'm not buying that. No,

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Speaker 5: not happening.

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Speaker 2: Can you imagine?

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Speaker 5: You get like to the I don't remember the last

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Speaker 5: thing Shakespeare wrote, but you.

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Speaker 2: Get to the end and like on the last page,

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Speaker 2: there's a typo.

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Speaker 4: Oh yeah, that's the great Simpsons joke where mister Burns

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Speaker 4: walks in a room full of monkeys at typewriters and

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Speaker 4: he pulls a piece of paper out at one of

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Speaker 4: the monkeys typewriters and he reads it was the best

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Speaker 4: of times.

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Speaker 2: It was the blurst of times.

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Speaker 5: He's angry because a monkey's had a typo right, hilarious.

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Speaker 2: So they were able to type literature. They just made

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Speaker 2: a mistake on one word, and he was angry. Also

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Speaker 2: read three search.

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Speaker 4: I just was looking at this schedule. Both candidates have

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Speaker 4: huge schedules today, radio interviews, rallies, appearances, So they must think,

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Speaker 4: you know, I supposed to make sense if half the

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Speaker 4: votes have already been cast, half the votes haven't, but

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Speaker 4: boy she got half.

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Speaker 2: Then the tiny amount that could be persuaded by one

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Speaker 2: more radio interview or rally, which has got to be

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Speaker 2: a tiny number.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, oh yeah, absolutely. I just think everybody's thinking about

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Speaker 5: twenty twenty. We're a vanishingly small number of votes decide

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Speaker 5: the election. But I happened to know a person who

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Speaker 5: was absolutely determined to vote. Uh, but they are perhaps

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Speaker 5: attending a graduate school that's somewhat distant from their home

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Speaker 5: address and was gonna have to track and then decided

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Speaker 5: not to, then decided to again, or maybe you got to.

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Speaker 5: You're a truck driver and your route gets all screwed

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Speaker 5: up and you're gonna get home late anyway, and you're thinking,

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Speaker 5: I don't know, I'm just one vote.

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Speaker 2: They're just trying to get.

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Speaker 5: That last tiny squeeze, that last drop of turnout.

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Speaker 4: Sure, got a sick kid at home today. You know,

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Speaker 4: you can be planning to do something, the kids sick,

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Speaker 4: and you think, yeah, I just got too much going on.

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Speaker 2: It can happen unless there's just that one little tweak.

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Speaker 2: Do you want to hear?

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Speaker 5: The California thing is long we're talking about this could

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Speaker 5: California elect Donald Trump? It's from the Wall Street Journal

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Speaker 5: editorial board. There has been so much outflow of people

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Speaker 5: from California, New York and Illinois that it might swing

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Speaker 5: the election for Donald Trump. What it's plausible that the

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Speaker 5: population flight from those states to some of this year's

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Speaker 5: electoral battlegrounds could help Trump win a second term. And

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Speaker 5: they mention it's not only that a lot of conservative

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Speaker 5: to moderate people have left the Blue states but population

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Speaker 5: shifts in the twenty tens reduced the Democrats advantage in

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Speaker 5: the electoral college. California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 5: and West Virginia each lost a vote in the electoral

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Speaker 5: college because they lost a rep in the House of Representatives.

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Speaker 5: Texas picked up two. Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and

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Speaker 5: Oregon each added one. And they go through a bunch

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Speaker 5: of scenarios where Kamala Harris starts the count with a

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Speaker 5: built in lead that's three votes smaller than Joe Biden's

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Speaker 5: in twenty twenty, the sure blue states are three electoral

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Speaker 5: votes fewer than they were, and they run through various

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Speaker 5: scenarios where if she won a fairly predictable slate of states,

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Speaker 5: she'd be two electoral votes short just because of the

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Speaker 5: change in population over the last decade.

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Speaker 4: Man, I'm taking in some of the cable news channel media,

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Speaker 4: just through highlights and stuff like that. Democrat panels seem

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Speaker 4: a little panicked. I don't know what insider information they have,

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Speaker 4: but there it looks like there's some finger pointing going on.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna talk to Lennie jen about the election coming

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Speaker 4: up stay with us.

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Speaker 2: Are strong and getty.

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Speaker 9: You say, Kamala, you're horrible at your job. You don't

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Speaker 9: know what you're doing. You're a low IQ individual. We

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Speaker 9: want smart people, we want cunning people. We're dealing with

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Speaker 9: the smartest people in the world. We don't want your

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Speaker 9: negotiating nuclear deals because you don't want there.

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Speaker 10: You don't know what the word nuclear means. Kamala, Yeah fired,

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Speaker 10: Get the hell out of here.

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Speaker 2: I ask you one last time. Are you ready to

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Speaker 2: make your voices heard? Do we believe in freedom? Do

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Speaker 2: we believe in opportunity?

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Speaker 8: Do we believe in the promise of America?

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Speaker 11: Wait? Running to find.

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Speaker 12: Yeah? Bless what could be better after hearing from our

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Speaker 12: two sterling candidates than Lady Gaga lifting her voice in.

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Speaker 2: Saul turn it Up? Michael standy side. Oh boy, I

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Speaker 2: just saw Why am I? What have I done that

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Speaker 2: I'm being punished like this? I just saw Van Jones off.

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Speaker 7: I can't stand it.

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Speaker 4: I just saw Van Jones on CNN saying I don't

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Speaker 4: think closing with all the celebrities was a good idea.

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Speaker 4: The difference is working class, blue collar people Michigan, Wisconsin

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Speaker 4: and Pennsylvania. I don't think Lady Gaga and all these celebrities.

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Speaker 4: Was a good idea that's from Van Jones, which I

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Speaker 4: think is interesting.

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Speaker 2: Hmmm, he's a serious man. Speaking of serious men.

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Speaker 5: Please welcome lon each end of the show, Lonie David

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Speaker 5: and Diane Staffy, Fellow in American Public Policy Studies at

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Speaker 5: the Hoover Institution and the Director of Domestic Policy Studies

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Speaker 5: at Stanford University.

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Speaker 2: Lon Hey, greetings, how.

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Speaker 7: Are you Happy election day?

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Speaker 2: Gentlemen?

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Speaker 5: Thank you, thank you, just just taking off on what

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Speaker 5: we were just talking about, like saying happy surgery days.

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Speaker 11: I guess everyone's ready. Everyone's ready, much like the surgery

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Speaker 11: for it to be done well.

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Speaker 4: And what's going to be done. The voting is going

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Speaker 4: to be done. We certainly aren't done with fighting over

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Speaker 4: the results and then the policy decisions that are coming

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Speaker 4: with either of these two candidates.

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Speaker 2: That could be something right.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean unfortunately, because you know, you look at

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Speaker 11: California as an example, how long it takes us to

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Speaker 11: count ballots. You know, we probably won't have a result

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Speaker 11: in some of these really close congressional races for even

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Speaker 11: a couple of weeks. And then of course there's all

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Speaker 11: the discussion about what will happen in the new Congress

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Speaker 11: and the new administration, and that doesn't happen till January,

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Speaker 11: so it is an extended conversation. You wish that we

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Speaker 11: could have a system of slightly more efficient vote counting

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Speaker 11: and that people had a lot of faith and trust in,

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Speaker 11: but this is where we're at, you know, this is

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Speaker 11: the system we have, and I think it is going

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Speaker 11: to be a little bit before we get a result.

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Speaker 5: You know, I hadn't intended to talk about this, but

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Speaker 5: as long as you brought it up. I saw a

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Speaker 5: piece in the Journal not long ago that Democrats make

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Speaker 5: California a battleground state, talking about how there are several

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Speaker 5: important congressional races that used to be pretty easy to

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Speaker 5: call blue, but there's been a certain amount of backlash

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Speaker 5: in California.

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Speaker 11: Yeah, and actually, you know, amongst the folks listening to

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Speaker 11: the show, you've got people who are in these really

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Speaker 11: important targeted districts, and they go all the way up

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Speaker 11: and down the state. So in the Central Valley, you've

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Speaker 11: got one that's near Stockton that picks up a good

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Speaker 11: part of San Joaquin County, just a sliver of Contra

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Speaker 11: Costa County and runs a little bit south from there,

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Speaker 11: you've got one in the Central Valley, two in the

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Speaker 11: Central Valley. Actually, then you go down to Orange County

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Speaker 11: and you've got several down there that are important, including

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Speaker 11: one that extends into northern San Diego County. So there

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Speaker 11: are actually, I would say probably five or six really

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Speaker 11: competitive congressional districts that Republicans have not just a decent

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Speaker 11: shot in, but probably should win at least a number

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Speaker 11: of them. So it does really argue against the notion

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Speaker 11: of blue hegemony in California. I think these seats are

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Speaker 11: actually really important to determining control of Congress, and that's

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Speaker 11: why it's really important for folks to vote.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that'd be good for America in my opinion.

446
00:22:26,240 --> 00:22:29,639
Speaker 4: So speaking of America in the national race, Harris versus Trump,

447
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,520
Speaker 4: give us if Harris wins, she ends up being the winner.

448
00:22:33,880 --> 00:22:36,800
Speaker 2: What are the three reasons she won? Wow? Great?

449
00:22:36,880 --> 00:22:37,200
Speaker 7: Question.

450
00:22:38,560 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 11: Number one is that she's able to reassemble key elements

451
00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 11: of I guess what she'd call the Obama Coalition, and

452
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:53,520
Speaker 11: that's you know, union members, that's African American voters, that's

453
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 11: Hispanic voters, and it's suburban whites. And if she's able

454
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,440
Speaker 11: to win, it's going to be because that coalition has

455
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 11: essentially come back together.

456
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:09,080
Speaker 7: That'd be number one. Number two, she's able to activate women.

457
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,840
Speaker 11: And this is the great unanswered question we have as

458
00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 11: we sit here at seven thirty am Pacific. How many

459
00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 11: women are going to vote and how are they going

460
00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:21,520
Speaker 11: to vote? If the if you look at American politics,

461
00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 11: the two biggest predictors of how someone's going to vote

462
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 11: are their gender and their education level. And if you

463
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,960
Speaker 11: if you look at an elector tonight that is overwhelmingly

464
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,479
Speaker 11: female versus male, that will give you some indication that

465
00:23:35,520 --> 00:23:39,600
Speaker 11: she's doing either better than expected or certainly online with

466
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 11: the expectations to make this a very close race. And

467
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,400
Speaker 11: then the last thing I'll just say is the abortion issue.

468
00:23:45,800 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 11: This is something that caused the twenty twenty two elections

469
00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 11: to turn out the way they did, And what I

470
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,200
Speaker 11: mean by that is that this so called red wave

471
00:23:53,240 --> 00:23:56,440
Speaker 11: we were expecting really never materialized in the way that

472
00:23:56,480 --> 00:23:59,720
Speaker 11: we thought it would because there was so much backlash

473
00:23:59,760 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 11: and ways to that decision the Supreme Court to overturn

474
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:06,679
Speaker 11: Roe versus Wade. If she's winning or if she wins

475
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 11: this election, it will be because that issue activated key

476
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:14,000
Speaker 11: voters in key states, and it doesn't show up as

477
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,840
Speaker 11: a top issue necessarily compared to the economy and immigration,

478
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 11: but it is a top issue for some of those

479
00:24:19,400 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 11: voters I talked about earlier, part of the Obama coalition,

480
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 11: a lot of the women voters that may show up

481
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 11: to support her, Those will be the three reasons why

482
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:28,080
Speaker 11: she wins.

483
00:24:28,200 --> 00:24:29,800
Speaker 4: Well, I think you just tipped your hand. What are

484
00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 4: the three reasons if Trump ends up the victor that

485
00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 4: he won?

486
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 10: Well?

487
00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,000
Speaker 11: Number one, you know, I mean the flip side of

488
00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 11: that is his ability to create a coalition that's unlike

489
00:24:38,840 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 11: any other Republican has created before, and that means driving

490
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 11: up margins, particularly with urban voters.

491
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 7: We've talked a little.

492
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 11: Bit about the way in which he's managed to erode

493
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 11: the Democrat advantage on black voters and on Hispanic voters.

494
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:57,040
Speaker 7: If that really does end.

495
00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:00,159
Speaker 11: Up being true, that'll go a long way toward explaining

496
00:25:00,200 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 11: a Trump success. The second thing I would say is

497
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:08,160
Speaker 11: it's his ability to activate white working class voters who

498
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:11,840
Speaker 11: don't traditionally vote. We call them low propensity voters, but

499
00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 11: you're talking about folks who don't make a habit of

500
00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 11: going to the ballot box. These are people who might

501
00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 11: only vote for Donald Trump and not for anybody else.

502
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:21,479
Speaker 11: And that's why a lot of these Senate candidates who

503
00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 11: are Republicans, even in these swing states, are going to

504
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,399
Speaker 11: have issues potentially even if Trump wins, He's got to

505
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 11: win by a lot for them to get across the

506
00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:31,720
Speaker 11: finish line in some cases. But it is really about

507
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 11: how he's able potentially to activate these voters. And then

508
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,439
Speaker 11: the last thing is just the issue focus. If we

509
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,600
Speaker 11: look at exit polling tonight, and by far the key

510
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:42,560
Speaker 11: issues that voters are keying in on are at the

511
00:25:42,600 --> 00:25:45,000
Speaker 11: economy and immigration, it could be a very good night

512
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 11: for Donald Trump.

513
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:48,360
Speaker 5: Hey, this can be a very very brief answer if

514
00:25:48,359 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 5: you want, how are you setting yourself up emotionally for that?

515
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:56,919
Speaker 5: How long is it going to take booze figure out

516
00:25:56,960 --> 00:25:57,359
Speaker 5: who's won?

517
00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,679
Speaker 2: Booze? Is the answer? Yes? How about that? That's going

518
00:25:59,720 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 2: to take?

519
00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 7: That is the answer?

520
00:26:02,400 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 5: Or is that impossible to say? And if it's impossible,

521
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 5: it's fine.

522
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,440
Speaker 11: Well, you know, look, I think if the polls and

523
00:26:09,480 --> 00:26:12,679
Speaker 11: the estimates are right, it is going to take us

524
00:26:12,680 --> 00:26:17,280
Speaker 11: at least a few days to resolve some of these states. Now, look,

525
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 11: there's a probability, there's a possibility that this isn't close

526
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 11: at all. I mean, if we look and we see,

527
00:26:23,520 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 11: for example, that Kamala Harris is competitive in North Carolina,

528
00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 11: and by competitive I mean she's either ahead or within

529
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:35,399
Speaker 11: striking distance. The same goes for Georgia, this could be

530
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:38,200
Speaker 11: over very quickly for her. On the flip side of it,

531
00:26:38,280 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 11: if we see that Donald Trump's margins in Pennsylvania are

532
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 11: much more significant than we would have expected coming from

533
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 11: the early vote, and that she is not making up

534
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:49,880
Speaker 11: enough ground in the urban core of Philadelphia, it could

535
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 11: be over.

536
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 7: Very early for Donald Trump tonight. So here's what I

537
00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:54,320
Speaker 7: would say.

538
00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 11: I'd say probably a sixty percent likelihood that this goes

539
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 11: into tomorrow or beyond, no, maybe seventy percent, and then

540
00:27:02,800 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 11: there's a thirty percent likelihood that either Trump or Harris

541
00:27:06,840 --> 00:27:09,080
Speaker 11: is declared the winner overnight tonight.

542
00:27:10,040 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 5: So going from I want a short answer to this,

543
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,919
Speaker 5: one can be book length. In fact, if you'd like

544
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 5: to talk to the show Wow, we will just tell

545
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:22,080
Speaker 5: you when to break for commercials and listen. But you know,

546
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,520
Speaker 5: it's been said that a loss can be a gift

547
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 5: in a way because you can reassess and reinvent your

548
00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 5: party and go forward to greater success in the future,

549
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 5: abandon some of the bad habits that drag you down.

550
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:39,120
Speaker 2: Each party if they lose, what is.

551
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:41,600
Speaker 5: The big change you think they should make and feel

552
00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,600
Speaker 5: free to throw in whether you think they're smart or

553
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:45,560
Speaker 5: self aware enough.

554
00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 2: To do it.

555
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 7: Well, let's start with the Democrats.

556
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 11: I think it is really important for them to understand

557
00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:55,800
Speaker 11: that the excesses of the last few years on a

558
00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 11: whole set of issues, whether I would call them cultural

559
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 11: issues or economics in terms of using stuff like the

560
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:09,600
Speaker 11: Inflation Reduction Act, massive increases in spending. The combination of

561
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:13,520
Speaker 11: that excess has driven them into a position in many

562
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,920
Speaker 11: states where they just aren't as competitive as they used

563
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 11: to be. The old kind of working class union base

564
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 11: of the Democratic Party has been eroded in many states,

565
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:25,560
Speaker 11: and that's because they have simply gone too far. And

566
00:28:25,600 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 11: if you ask voters in a lot of places, they'll

567
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:30,760
Speaker 11: tell you that they think that the progressive excesses of

568
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:33,679
Speaker 11: the Democratic Party are what have turned them off and

569
00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 11: have ultimately made them support Donald Trump, who made them So.

570
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 4: Are you trying to tell me that the average guy

571
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 4: that works in the machine shop is not down with

572
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:42,600
Speaker 4: the termal of TX.

573
00:28:43,320 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 11: Well, I mean, that's that's a great example. That's a

574
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:49,760
Speaker 11: great example. And it's not even the term. It's being

575
00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 11: made to feel badly that you don't use the term,

576
00:28:52,920 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 11: or being made to feel badly that you don't adhere

577
00:28:55,760 --> 00:28:59,120
Speaker 11: to a certain orthodoxy. And I think that that excess

578
00:28:59,160 --> 00:29:02,160
Speaker 11: on the left has really cost them electorally in many

579
00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:03,600
Speaker 11: of these places we're talking about.

580
00:29:03,600 --> 00:29:05,400
Speaker 7: Whether it's in so again, I.

581
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 5: Don't have a PhD, but you're suggesting that never ending

582
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 5: judgment and condensation, condescension rather starts to wear on people.

583
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,280
Speaker 7: Yeah, yeah, yeah, I mean, I know it's crazy.

584
00:29:16,360 --> 00:29:18,560
Speaker 11: It's crazy, right, I mean, we we we we all

585
00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 11: love a good lecture.

586
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:20,680
Speaker 7: I guess what.

587
00:29:20,680 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 11: About the Republicans, you know there, I think it will be.

588
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:26,280
Speaker 2: Don't nominate Trump again?

589
00:29:26,600 --> 00:29:28,320
Speaker 11: Well, I know, I mean I think that that that

590
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 11: they may be part of it is, but but I

591
00:29:30,800 --> 00:29:32,920
Speaker 11: think the other part of it is there. There does

592
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 11: need to be a little bit of a re examination

593
00:29:34,760 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 11: because I think that over the last couple of years

594
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 11: there are issues on which Democrats and Republicans have actually converged.

595
00:29:41,000 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 11: And one of those I've mentioned already, which is really

596
00:29:44,000 --> 00:29:47,800
Speaker 11: leaning in on a bigger role for the federal government,

597
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 11: and that includes on on spending, it includes on uh,

598
00:29:53,200 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 11: you know, on on abortion rights, for example. There's been

599
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 11: some conversation about this as well, but the basic point

600
00:29:59,000 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 11: is that if you look at the nineteen eighties and

601
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,640
Speaker 11: nineteen nineties, there was a contrast, a pretty clear contrast

602
00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 11: in terms of the role of government, in terms of

603
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:12,160
Speaker 11: the way in which Republicans and Democrats approached it, approach

604
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:13,880
Speaker 11: certain economic questions, et cetera.

605
00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:15,959
Speaker 7: And there was a contrast.

606
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 11: And over the last couple of years some of that

607
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 11: contrast I think has arguably eroded, and I think Republicans

608
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 11: have to figure out again, are there elements of that

609
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:27,960
Speaker 11: let's call it traditional approach to economic policy, for.

610
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,760
Speaker 7: Example, that need to be renovated.

611
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:32,840
Speaker 11: I mean, aside from the Trump question, which I think

612
00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:36,360
Speaker 11: is obviously the big lingering eight hundred pound gorilla, if

613
00:30:36,400 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 11: you will, which is to what degree was it a

614
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 11: function of nominating him? I think there will be some

615
00:30:41,680 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 11: conversation about that, But there's a bigger issue that goes

616
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 11: well beyond Trump, which is what doesn't mean to be

617
00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 11: a Republican? I mean, like, what does that actually mean anymore?

618
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 11: And I think there's been, aside from being the Party

619
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 11: of Trump, which is what it's been for the last

620
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 11: better part of eight years. Now, I think people will

621
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:59,239
Speaker 11: need to really sit back and say, hey, you know,

622
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,320
Speaker 11: do we have a viable center right conservative movement in

623
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:03,920
Speaker 11: this country and what does it look like in contrast

624
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 11: to what the Democrats are proposing.

625
00:31:05,800 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 2: Lani Chen, who I believe the stat is right.

626
00:31:08,360 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 4: You got more Republican votes in twenty twenty two than

627
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 4: anybody in the country.

628
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:19,120
Speaker 11: More votes, Yeah, more including Versantis, that's correct.

629
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 2: Which is amazing.

630
00:31:20,200 --> 00:31:23,880
Speaker 4: Yeah, and unfortunately he lost because California is a communist state.

631
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:28,959
Speaker 5: Correct, you said it, not me right, one party kleptocracy.

632
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 5: Lani Chen of the Hoover Institution in Stanford University.

633
00:31:32,960 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 2: We look forward to chatting with you post election. Lani.

634
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:36,680
Speaker 2: It makes sense of the.

635
00:31:36,640 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 11: Mess absolutely, And if you haven't voted yet, get out

636
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 11: there and vote today.

637
00:31:40,080 --> 00:31:41,239
Speaker 2: Cool. That is.

638
00:31:41,520 --> 00:31:44,080
Speaker 4: That is an amazing stat because Ron de Santis won

639
00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 4: by like twenty points in a very large state. He

640
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 4: still didn't get him any as many votes as Lanhi

641
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 4: Chen got. And Lani Chen was endorsed by what the

642
00:31:51,400 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 4: La Times, the San Francisco Chronicle. I mean everybody needs still.

643
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:58,840
Speaker 5: Major publication website in California, the scratch Still the politics

644
00:31:58,880 --> 00:32:01,320
Speaker 5: are so stupid that there were so many people that

645
00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,960
Speaker 5: just could not vote for an R under any circumstances.

646
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 4: And just you know, I hope we moved past that

647
00:32:07,800 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 4: at some point. I mean, just as a nation, not

648
00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 4: even California, and the well.

649
00:32:12,480 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 5: California is unique, and that the order came down from

650
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,440
Speaker 5: all the public employee unions.

651
00:32:16,520 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 2: Yeah whatever, vote D and.

652
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 5: They voted D so and nominated half a crook and

653
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:23,760
Speaker 5: half a moron or elected rather.

654
00:32:23,800 --> 00:32:26,640
Speaker 4: One of the most respected posters American, Nate Silver, ran

655
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:30,280
Speaker 4: his simulator last night with all the polls in eighty

656
00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 4: thousand times eighty thousand simulations.

657
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 2: How did it turn out? Who won?

658
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:40,760
Speaker 4: We'll hit you with that, among other things on the way.

659
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 10: I mean, Nancy Pelosi, she's a crooked person. She is

660
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 10: a bad person, evil, she's an evil, sick crazy.

661
00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 1: Bit.

662
00:32:51,240 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 10: Oh no, it starts with it B. But I won't

663
00:32:58,360 --> 00:32:58,719
Speaker 10: say it.

664
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:01,239
Speaker 2: Wow, I want to say it.

665
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:14,239
Speaker 10: I want to say but Franklin Graham said, sir, I

666
00:33:14,320 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 10: love your speaking ability, and I love your storytelling, but honestly,

667
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,760
Speaker 10: it would be even better if you wouldn't use foul language,

668
00:33:22,800 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 10: and I don't use much, you know, every once in

669
00:33:24,560 --> 00:33:27,080
Speaker 10: a while, and it's never a real bad word. It's

670
00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 10: you know, it's like never bad and so I try

671
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:33,800
Speaker 10: to it here. But he's wrong about one thing. It

672
00:33:33,880 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 10: is a little better when you use the foul language

673
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:37,640
Speaker 10: because it's more actress.

674
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 4: So either wing either Today is kind of the end

675
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:48,320
Speaker 4: of the whole Trump thing after nearly a decade or

676
00:33:49,800 --> 00:33:52,280
Speaker 4: four more years as president of the most powerful nation

677
00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:52,720
Speaker 4: on earth.

678
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,200
Speaker 2: And we'll see in Islan.

679
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 5: He was hinting at at least what does the Republican

680
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,320
Speaker 5: Party look like without Trump?

681
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:05,600
Speaker 2: Good question. Nobody knows the answer to that. What's its platform?

682
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 10: So?

683
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,200
Speaker 2: How interested are people in the election?

684
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:12,520
Speaker 4: I came across this yesterday to help booster my willingness

685
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 4: to talk about this. What percentage of people rate their

686
00:34:18,360 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 4: interest in the election at a nine out of ten

687
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 4: or higher? So nine out of ten or ten out

688
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:26,719
Speaker 4: of ten, And it's about eighty percent of people. And

689
00:34:26,840 --> 00:34:29,600
Speaker 4: I gotta believe of people listening to the show or

690
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 4: taking in podcasts or talk radio or whatever, you're in

691
00:34:32,560 --> 00:34:35,200
Speaker 4: that crowd. But eighty percent of people rate it as

692
00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 4: a nine or ten Their level of interest. That is something.

693
00:34:40,000 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 5: So I want to be surprised to hear that, honestly,

694
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,480
Speaker 5: given the spectacular turnout across the country in early voting.

695
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 2: Yeah so, Nate.

696
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:54,240
Speaker 4: Silver is one of the more respected pollsters in America.

697
00:34:54,360 --> 00:35:01,680
Speaker 4: He ran his final simulation after midnight last night of

698
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:02,920
Speaker 4: how he thought it was going to turn out. He

699
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 4: plugs in all the poles and all the waiting, and

700
00:35:04,560 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 4: he's got his own methodology, which I don't think he

701
00:35:06,800 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 4: shares all of it.

702
00:35:08,360 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 2: And the Chiefs beat the Eagles twenty seven to twenty

703
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 2: What does that mean? They run the computer simulations eighty

704
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: thousand times before the Super Bowl too?

705
00:35:22,760 --> 00:35:27,080
Speaker 4: Oh okay, gotcha, So maddens thing. He ran his simulation

706
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 4: eighty thousand times. What's interesting about this to me is

707
00:35:31,160 --> 00:35:33,080
Speaker 4: with all the polling plugged in and everything like that,

708
00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:39,480
Speaker 4: Harris won forty thousand and twelve eighty thousand times. He

709
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 4: ran the whole simulation. She won twelve more times than Trump.

710
00:35:43,520 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 2: So there you have it. It's pretty close. Apparently.

711
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 5: Oh, I feel like the gods are mocking us or something.

712
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 5: There were punished, right, punished or something.

713
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 4: I don't even know, as we've been saying it doesn't

714
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 4: seem like if your goal was to get the country

715
00:35:57,960 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 4: fifty to fifty, you could get this close possible.

716
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 5: Oh no, no, no, back to an infinite number of

717
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:06,720
Speaker 5: monkeys on an infinite number of typewriters know, an infinite

718
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 5: number of political operatives with an infinite amount of cash

719
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 5: could not produce an election this close.

720
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I was just looking up at cable news channels.

721
00:36:14,320 --> 00:36:17,279
Speaker 4: I observed something worth commenting on, among other things, we'd

722
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:18,680
Speaker 4: like to hear your texts too and emails.

723
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:21,800
Speaker 2: Stay with us, Armstrong and Getty