WEBVTT - FINAL NFL WEEK 2 Bets: Vikings-Bears, Packers-Jets and more 0:00:00.830 --> 0:00:05.330 Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by Polymarket. We are part 0:00:05.350 --> 0:00:09.130 of the Volume Podcast Network. This is the show that 0:00:09.150 --> 0:00:13.100 makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys pay attention. 0:00:13.119 --> 0:00:16.220 I am Chad Millman. I am joined, as I am 0:00:16.320 --> 0:00:19.680 every week, by my co-host, my companion, my compadre, my 0:00:19.720 --> 0:00:24.460 BFF professional better, Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon. 0:00:25.239 --> 0:00:26.940 Chad, how we doing? Brother. Brother. 0:00:28.080 --> 0:00:29.960 Before we came on the air, we already had 10 0:00:29.960 --> 0:00:33.680 minutes of conversation about our minds are swirling because we 0:00:33.720 --> 0:00:36.580 have new ideas this morning about teams we like that 0:00:36.620 --> 0:00:40.340 are popping up after consistent analysis and line moves and 0:00:40.380 --> 0:00:42.519 feedback and all this kind of stuff. This is our 0:00:43.050 --> 0:00:46.870 Sunday morning NFL week two show. Simon and I will 0:00:46.909 --> 0:00:50.630 nail down our final five picks in our free sharp 0:00:50.650 --> 0:00:58.430 or square $ 25, 000 pro football show. Pick'em contest, that's right. 0:00:58.530 --> 0:01:04.929 The free Pick'em contest is open. Prize pool $ 25, 000 in cash. 0:01:04.970 --> 0:01:12.750 Sign up right now at sharporsquare.thevolume.com. Compete against me and 0:01:12.810 --> 0:01:17.380 Simon all season long. Top 10 finishers get paid. First 0:01:17.440 --> 0:01:21.960 place gets $ 10, 000. It's totally free. Your lowest score will 0:01:22.060 --> 0:01:25.560 get dropped after week five. Sign up now. You can 0:01:25.580 --> 0:01:29.179 continue to sign up. For the next couple of weeks, 0:01:29.440 --> 0:01:37.720 because you will get that lowest score dropped, sharp or square.thevolume.com. 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:43.530 All right, Simon. Philadelphia, Tennessee. I bet this is seven. 0:01:43.830 --> 0:01:47.570 It's seven and a half in our contest. I think 0:01:47.610 --> 0:01:49.530 at the end of the day, sometimes the eyes don't lie. 0:01:50.560 --> 0:01:54.430 The Titans are a terrible team. at every level. And 0:01:54.470 --> 0:01:57.970 it's questionable right now if Cam Ward is a good quarterback, 0:01:58.610 --> 0:02:03.380 especially against pressure rate. The Eagles have a chance to 0:02:03.420 --> 0:02:07.919 play better on offense and can dominate on defense. I'm 0:02:07.960 --> 0:02:12.030 going to own it. I know like as a professional better, 0:02:12.090 --> 0:02:15.350 you cannot say take the Eagles at a big number 0:02:15.490 --> 0:02:18.549 on the road. I got no problem with it. I'll 0:02:18.669 --> 0:02:21.950 own it. I'll eat it. It's mine. Let's put it in. 0:02:22.870 --> 0:02:26.410 I got Simon. I got this. I got it. Eagles 0:02:26.450 --> 0:02:28.910 minus seven and a half in the contest. Seven is 0:02:28.930 --> 0:02:29.550 the number right now. 0:02:31.090 --> 0:02:31.230 Yeah. 0:02:31.290 --> 0:02:32.630 I got other pro betters. 0:02:32.669 --> 0:02:35.329 Call him up and just whisper, whispering horrible things to 0:02:35.370 --> 0:02:38.410 me on the phone. Telling me I'm all just horrible 0:02:38.430 --> 0:02:41.450 things about taking Tennessee. So, um, I told you, I 0:02:41.490 --> 0:02:44.210 can't legally advise you to take Tennessee or I will 0:02:44.230 --> 0:02:46.930 be fired from my job. So if we want to 0:02:46.950 --> 0:02:49.370 take it, you know, I support it. I like this, 0:02:49.750 --> 0:02:52.870 the spot for the Eagles. Um, It's just what we 0:02:52.889 --> 0:02:55.850 talk about all the time, right? Sometimes it's too obvious. 0:02:55.889 --> 0:02:57.150 And the public does win. 0:02:57.190 --> 0:02:59.049 We talk all the time. The public does win. Tennessee 0:02:59.090 --> 0:02:59.829 breaks all the trends. 0:02:59.870 --> 0:03:01.910 I mean, last year, if you faded them every week, 0:03:02.530 --> 0:03:04.829 I think you ended up at like 11-5 or whatever 0:03:04.850 --> 0:03:08.150 it was in the season. So it's been profitable to 0:03:08.190 --> 0:03:11.750 fade Tennessee. We both agree this is a nice matchup 0:03:11.770 --> 0:03:14.870 for the Eagles. It's just at 7.5, it's a lot. 0:03:14.910 --> 0:03:16.870 So, yes. It's a lot. If we win it, you 0:03:16.889 --> 0:03:17.829 can victory lap it. 0:03:17.970 --> 0:03:21.120 If we lose it, that's your cross to bear, my friend. 0:03:21.180 --> 0:03:24.000 So, yeah. I got no problem. You take an own 0:03:24.020 --> 0:03:25.329 stainless one and own it. 0:03:25.910 --> 0:03:30.550 I own it. I'll take it. New Orleans at Baltimore, 0:03:30.590 --> 0:03:32.829 the number's eight and a half. It surprised me that 0:03:32.850 --> 0:03:36.050 the number dropped during the week. You and I talked 0:03:36.070 --> 0:03:39.310 about it on Tuesday. We both like New Orleans at 0:03:39.330 --> 0:03:41.970 eight and a half. We both bet it at eight 0:03:41.990 --> 0:03:44.170 and a half. It came down to seven and a half. 0:03:44.670 --> 0:03:47.230 Zay Flowers is out. I don't know if it's the 0:03:47.290 --> 0:03:49.710 rain or the weather on the East Coast that is 0:03:49.750 --> 0:03:53.380 potentially impacting this number. It's gone back up to eight 0:03:53.400 --> 0:03:55.660 and a half. It's eight and a half in the 0:03:55.720 --> 0:03:59.560 contest now. Any insight into why you think it's moving 0:03:59.600 --> 0:04:02.670 back up or anything that would scare us from making 0:04:02.710 --> 0:04:03.130 this play? 0:04:05.450 --> 0:04:08.430 Yeah, I could just see that if Olave is out 0:04:08.650 --> 0:04:12.340 and Zay Flowers is out, I would assume Olave affects 0:04:12.400 --> 0:04:15.220 the Saints more than Zay Flowers being out affects the Ravens. 0:04:15.260 --> 0:04:18.289 Like the Ravens, Lamar can turn anybody into a star 0:04:18.730 --> 0:04:19.789 and make anyone look good. 0:04:19.870 --> 0:04:21.990 We can't say the same for Shuck, right? Shuck needs 0:04:22.010 --> 0:04:22.529 his weapons. 0:04:22.730 --> 0:04:25.050 So a lot of it being out is a big deal, 0:04:25.110 --> 0:04:27.430 probably a bigger deal for the Saints team. And like 0:04:27.450 --> 0:04:29.270 you said, it is bad weather. I mean, we're here 0:04:29.290 --> 0:04:30.849 on the East coast. It's supposed to rain and be 0:04:30.910 --> 0:04:33.090 windy basically all day for a lot of these teams. 0:04:33.110 --> 0:04:37.360 It's supposed to be sporadic. So yeah, if, if, if 0:04:37.390 --> 0:04:39.640 this ends up being one of our five, the Saints, it's, 0:04:39.820 --> 0:04:43.440 it's really us playing the number. We just, it's hard 0:04:43.460 --> 0:04:44.900 to say the Ravens are eight and a half points 0:04:44.920 --> 0:04:46.810 better than the Saints team. The Saints team has shown 0:04:46.870 --> 0:04:49.130 us time and time again, they find a way to 0:04:49.150 --> 0:04:54.010 the back door. And my hesitation here is just, it's 0:04:54.050 --> 0:04:57.090 a lot to ask the Saints team where we just 0:04:57.130 --> 0:05:01.580 saw basically a Lions team look dead like that overtime stuff. 0:05:01.600 --> 0:05:03.760 I know it's early in the year here, but you 0:05:03.779 --> 0:05:05.440 can just tell these guys don't have their sea legs. 0:05:05.500 --> 0:05:07.440 I mean that, I mean the Lions, you can say, well, 0:05:07.460 --> 0:05:08.660 their offense didn't look too bad. 0:05:08.960 --> 0:05:09.440 They did though. 0:05:09.460 --> 0:05:13.180 They slept walking that. So yeah, that's my hesitation with 0:05:13.200 --> 0:05:16.580 the Saints. They're coming off such an insanely physical game. 0:05:16.620 --> 0:05:18.880 On the flip side, the Ravens had won their game 0:05:18.920 --> 0:05:22.620 midway through the third quarter. It's just two totally different teams. 0:05:22.660 --> 0:05:24.620 So we'll see if it ends up one of our 0:05:24.680 --> 0:05:26.380 final fives. But, yeah, as we say right now, it's 0:05:26.430 --> 0:05:28.229 not one of my bigger bets. 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:35.590 All right, it's time for our Polymarket closing time segment. 0:05:37.170 --> 0:05:43.729 Green Bay is trading at 3.5. at the New York Jets. 0:05:45.230 --> 0:05:48.890 I have said all week, I didn't want to play 0:05:48.910 --> 0:05:50.910 the Jets. The number has moved from five and a 0:05:50.930 --> 0:05:52.409 half down to three and a half. I didn't want 0:05:52.430 --> 0:05:54.940 to play the Jets because I felt like last week 0:05:54.980 --> 0:05:58.580 was peak Jets at the exact right time. The more 0:05:58.620 --> 0:06:00.780 I've been thinking about this game, and then when I 0:06:00.839 --> 0:06:04.520 woke up this morning, the more I liked Green Bay. 0:06:04.540 --> 0:06:07.840 And I was surprised when we started talking about these 0:06:07.900 --> 0:06:14.060 games that you liked Green Green Bay as well. That's 0:06:14.080 --> 0:06:16.660 why I'm putting it on the docket here, why I'm 0:06:16.740 --> 0:06:21.469 making it our closing time trade of the week presented 0:06:21.550 --> 0:06:26.589 by Polymarket. Because the more I think about it, Green 0:06:26.610 --> 0:06:31.950 Bay is desperate. Green Bay is great against man defense, 0:06:31.970 --> 0:06:35.450 which the Jets want to play. Green Bay lost that 0:06:35.490 --> 0:06:38.630 game because of three untimely penalties and then some turnovers 0:06:38.690 --> 0:06:41.619 at the end when the Vikings were going all-out blitz. 0:06:43.279 --> 0:06:45.359 I'm just not impressed with the Jets beating up the 0:06:45.420 --> 0:06:49.440 Titans as much as I am with the Packers needing 0:06:49.500 --> 0:06:50.190 to win this game. 0:06:52.190 --> 0:06:55.690 Yeah, it's more to me about as well, it's not 0:06:55.730 --> 0:06:57.770 trying to overreact too much to week one. We knew 0:06:57.810 --> 0:06:59.950 the weaknesses of this Green Bay team coming into the season. 0:07:00.650 --> 0:07:02.620 It just felt like this is a team that every 0:07:02.690 --> 0:07:06.440 single thing possible went wrong. We talked about the refs, 0:07:06.980 --> 0:07:09.650 the turnovers, everything like that. It all happened midway through 0:07:09.670 --> 0:07:12.290 the third quarter and on. If you take that away, 0:07:12.890 --> 0:07:16.119 they were pretty impressive that entire game. They played pretty well, 0:07:16.640 --> 0:07:18.120 and I went back and watched the film, and it's 0:07:18.140 --> 0:07:21.460 just like, okay, they're not as bad as I think 0:07:21.480 --> 0:07:23.460 the public thinks. I think they're exactly who we thought 0:07:23.480 --> 0:07:25.860 they were coming into the season, which is still a 0:07:25.900 --> 0:07:30.670 better team than this Jets team. You're having the public 0:07:30.730 --> 0:07:32.710 obviously overreact to that Jets team in the sense that 0:07:33.750 --> 0:07:35.910 They think that they were going to be bad this season, 0:07:35.970 --> 0:07:38.540 and they overachieved so much in that week one. I mean, 0:07:38.560 --> 0:07:41.480 winning by double digits with Geno Smith, I get it. 0:07:41.620 --> 0:07:43.540 That should be an ultimate victory lap if you're a 0:07:43.540 --> 0:07:47.100 Jets fan. But we're talking about really bad elements here. 0:07:47.120 --> 0:07:49.990 We're talking about really bad weather, high winds in this matchup. 0:07:50.190 --> 0:07:52.650 And as much as you want to say, well, at 0:07:52.670 --> 0:07:54.190 least the Jets have the number one running back and 0:07:54.210 --> 0:07:57.370 they have a strong run game, we've seen LeFleur– The 0:07:57.410 --> 0:07:59.620 run game can work, right? Even with Lloyd, whoever it is, 0:07:59.650 --> 0:08:01.820 the backup, just because Jordan Love's so good, they're always 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:03.540 going to have two safeties back. They'll never have a 0:08:03.560 --> 0:08:06.460 stacked box, regardless of the running back isn't Green Bay. 0:08:06.500 --> 0:08:08.220 So I don't think they're going to have problems moving 0:08:08.240 --> 0:08:10.620 the ball here Green Bay-wise. On the flip side, with Geno, 0:08:11.060 --> 0:08:12.780 I have a lot of questions about him, especially this 0:08:12.820 --> 0:08:13.900 fact that it's going to be bad weather. 0:08:13.960 --> 0:08:16.190 So pretty telling here. 0:08:16.230 --> 0:08:18.890 The line is a couple books have shifted to three 0:08:18.930 --> 0:08:21.090 for the most part. This is stuck at minus three 0:08:21.110 --> 0:08:23.170 and a half. So you can find the minus three, 0:08:23.210 --> 0:08:24.290 do it for our contest. 0:08:24.830 --> 0:08:25.470 We have no choice. 0:08:25.490 --> 0:08:26.610 We have to take that minus three and a half, 0:08:26.770 --> 0:08:29.330 which I don't mind. It's just we always prefer to 0:08:29.350 --> 0:08:30.630 grab that three if it's possible. 0:08:31.130 --> 0:08:31.310 Yep. 0:08:31.790 --> 0:08:32.070 All right. 0:08:33.030 --> 0:08:35.840 I need to tell you about the new prediction market 0:08:35.929 --> 0:08:39.000 called Polymarket. It's the best way to trade in sports 0:08:39.040 --> 0:08:41.560 in the past. If you wanted action on the game, 0:08:41.580 --> 0:08:43.220 you'd put some money in. And if your team was 0:08:43.260 --> 0:08:45.640 doing well and you wanted to cash out, they'd lock 0:08:45.660 --> 0:08:48.000 the trade or take a huge fee. But Polymarket is 0:08:48.040 --> 0:08:51.719 a prediction market. It's a stock exchange for sports buying 0:08:51.820 --> 0:08:55.140 in and selling out on your teams. When your team 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:57.780 goes down to 20%, you can buy in and sell 0:08:57.820 --> 0:09:00.980 it off at 40%. When they come back to double 0:09:01.020 --> 0:09:04.140 your money, I've tried them all, and Polymarket is simply 0:09:04.179 --> 0:09:07.819 the best prediction market. They're so confident. You'll never go 0:09:07.880 --> 0:09:09.900 back to the other guys. They're giving you a free 0:09:09.900 --> 0:09:15.449 $ 50 on your first trade when you deposit just $ 10. 0:09:14.990 --> 0:09:17.990 So download the Polymarket app today and use code SHARP 0:09:18.610 --> 0:09:21.270 when you sign up. That's code SHARP to get $ 50 0:09:21.230 --> 0:09:27.699 after you trade just $ 10 Chad's choice this week was 0:09:27.780 --> 0:09:32.900 Atlanta as a plus two and a half point underdog 0:09:33.240 --> 0:09:37.050 at home against Carolina. But my caveat was wait until 0:09:37.070 --> 0:09:40.210 this gets to three. We know Cooper Rush is now 0:09:40.270 --> 0:09:44.650 playing a quarterback for Atlanta. This finally popped to three 0:09:45.530 --> 0:09:48.550 yesterday afternoon, at least in the state of Connecticut. I 0:09:48.630 --> 0:09:50.750 did bet it at three. It's been two and a 0:09:50.770 --> 0:09:53.630 half in the contest. As we sit here Sunday morning, 0:09:55.490 --> 0:09:57.580 I don't feel like this is one of my five favorite. 0:09:58.340 --> 0:10:00.689 We're starting to line up games. that I feel much 0:10:00.730 --> 0:10:03.650 more confident about. Tell me what you think. 0:10:06.440 --> 0:10:08.960 Yeah, this is a game I probably was just following 0:10:08.980 --> 0:10:09.410 you on it. 0:10:09.780 --> 0:10:12.439 I bet Atlanta, but to make it one of our five, 0:10:12.460 --> 0:10:14.600 it really would have been, honestly, one of your plays. 0:10:14.660 --> 0:10:16.719 I told you, not that I don't have confidence in 0:10:16.740 --> 0:10:20.120 the quarterback position with Atlanta, but That's what's lacking. The 0:10:20.160 --> 0:10:24.780 most intriguing part here is simply the number. Why is 0:10:24.860 --> 0:10:29.140 this not a 3-3.5? The amount of money the Panthers 0:10:29.179 --> 0:10:32.980 have been taking here is just insane. It's all Panthers money. 0:10:33.020 --> 0:10:36.620 It's just pros versus Joes. The pros are all over 0:10:36.660 --> 0:10:41.110 Atlanta here just thinking they're a better team. You can't 0:10:41.179 --> 0:10:43.170 not look at all those numbers from last year, especially 0:10:43.190 --> 0:10:45.750 with Bryce. His best game of his career would come 0:10:45.770 --> 0:10:48.740 against Atlanta. He tears up this Atlanta defense, Bryce Young. 0:10:48.780 --> 0:10:52.280 So you said it. Carolina's defense is not anywhere near 0:10:52.320 --> 0:10:53.680 as bad as they looked last week. 0:10:54.520 --> 0:10:56.590 Can Robinson run all over them? Possibly. 0:10:56.610 --> 0:10:59.890 I mean, Ben Johnson's laid out the blocking scheme. There 0:10:59.950 --> 0:11:03.170 are major openings in the middle of the field for Carolina. 0:11:03.210 --> 0:11:05.790 They just don't have the linebackers or the de-tackles to 0:11:05.830 --> 0:11:08.830 really stop the run. So there is a path for 0:11:08.850 --> 0:11:11.010 Atlanta here to not only cover this number but win. 0:11:11.710 --> 0:11:14.010 I think we're both just a little lukewarm on it 0:11:14.030 --> 0:11:16.090 where there's other teams, other quarterbacks who'd rather put our 0:11:16.110 --> 0:11:19.970 money into Sunday morning here that take a position on Atlanta. 0:11:21.290 --> 0:11:28.080 Seattle visiting Arizona. Arizona is a four and a half 0:11:28.179 --> 0:11:33.660 point underdog in the contest right now. That line has moved. 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:36.700 It had opened at four and a half, got that down, 0:11:37.100 --> 0:11:40.109 has come back up. We bet it early in the 0:11:40.150 --> 0:11:44.040 week at four and a half. I I'm actually still 0:11:44.100 --> 0:11:46.880 pretty confident about this one. I like it that we're 0:11:46.900 --> 0:11:49.600 getting it at the better number than, than where it 0:11:49.620 --> 0:11:52.420 sort of had been as the week had gone on, 0:11:52.460 --> 0:11:54.459 because right now it's four and a half in the contest. 0:11:57.300 --> 0:11:57.829 That's fair. 0:11:58.090 --> 0:12:02.110 My hesitation here, once again, is are we overrating Arizona 0:12:02.190 --> 0:12:05.449 off one game where they looked incredible against the chargers? 0:12:05.550 --> 0:12:08.490 And I gave you that Mike McDonald number. He's 13 0:12:08.490 --> 0:12:09.750 right on the road. 0:12:09.770 --> 0:12:15.320 Um, Like, it's just– it's not profitable long-term for us 0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:18.459 taking this position, most likely, back in this Arizona team here. 0:12:18.559 --> 0:12:21.439 But I still think four and a half, that's a 0:12:21.500 --> 0:12:25.250 lot of points against a backup quarterback. And Seattle, if 0:12:25.260 --> 0:12:27.429 you're making this bet, you really are counting heavily on 0:12:27.450 --> 0:12:30.730 their defense. I mean, obviously, it's one of the best 0:12:30.770 --> 0:12:34.309 defenses in football. That front seven should give problems to Arizona. 0:12:34.330 --> 0:12:37.270 You know, can Brissette get us out of that hole? 0:12:37.290 --> 0:12:38.939 Because they're going to be in one in this game. Like, 0:12:39.720 --> 0:12:43.470 Seahawks are going to score points here. They're just– so 0:12:43.490 --> 0:12:46.650 offensively talented. They have so many good weapons and it's 0:12:46.690 --> 0:12:47.550 just Arizona. 0:12:47.570 --> 0:12:49.960 That's their weakness. They have no one. I know they 0:12:49.980 --> 0:12:53.260 look good against the chargers. That's not who Arizona is. 0:12:53.300 --> 0:12:56.240 That was really more about, especially when back and watching 0:12:56.280 --> 0:12:58.980 Herbert had guys, he had, he had plays to make. 0:12:59.360 --> 0:13:01.840 I think he played terrible. And, um, I just think 0:13:01.860 --> 0:13:02.589 they're underprepared. 0:13:02.620 --> 0:13:05.330 The chargers were obviously we, we see Arizona not being 0:13:05.950 --> 0:13:08.730 underprepared this matchup. They'll be ready for it. It's just 0:13:08.790 --> 0:13:11.550 a tall task to ask. So, um, a four and 0:13:11.570 --> 0:13:13.210 a half chat. If this ends up being our last 0:13:13.309 --> 0:13:15.010 one in, I have no issue with it. I was 0:13:15.030 --> 0:13:18.110 just definitely way more confident in this game on Thursday. 0:13:18.290 --> 0:13:20.860 And the more I dove into the film of this 0:13:20.929 --> 0:13:23.679 Arizona team, it's like, yes, I think they're going to 0:13:23.720 --> 0:13:26.339 get theirs possibly in this matchup, but it's like their, 0:13:26.540 --> 0:13:30.480 their offensive line terrifies me against this front seven of Seattle. 0:13:30.620 --> 0:13:33.790 Like this is exact type of matchup. We seem to dominate. 0:13:33.809 --> 0:13:37.390 I think even historically, um, Seattle has just owned Arizona 0:13:37.429 --> 0:13:40.690 in this division. So, uh, very telling once again that 0:13:40.730 --> 0:13:44.370 this is just all professionals are on arizona and the 0:13:44.410 --> 0:13:47.350 whole public is lining up on seattle so another game 0:13:47.370 --> 0:13:48.650 that's basically spread right down the. 0:13:48.630 --> 0:13:51.250 Middle i will say i feel better about this game 0:13:51.270 --> 0:13:54.660 than atlanta like to me atlanta is probably out uh 0:13:54.720 --> 0:13:57.860 whereas this game it it might be an on the 0:13:57.900 --> 0:14:00.020 bubble game just because at the end of the day 0:14:00.040 --> 0:14:02.079 you're betting drew lock on the road as a favorite 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:06.670 like that's that to me like it's just we don't 0:14:06.710 --> 0:14:10.819 have to bet on seattle because we would never bet 0:14:10.860 --> 0:14:13.040 on Drew Locke as a favorite on the road, but 0:14:13.080 --> 0:14:16.420 that is what you're betting against if you take Arizona 0:14:16.900 --> 0:14:22.940 above anything else. The line is four at most books, 0:14:23.260 --> 0:14:25.100 four and a half in the contest. So in this one, 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:29.380 it's playing to our advantage. Indy at Kansas City, this 0:14:29.500 --> 0:14:32.580 one came on strong on Thursday's show. We had been 0:14:32.620 --> 0:14:34.720 talking about it a little bit on Tuesday, and then 0:14:34.740 --> 0:14:39.530 we got some feedback from... sharp calls, we had both 0:14:39.590 --> 0:14:42.050 been doing a little more research on it, starting to 0:14:42.120 --> 0:14:44.620 like Indy a little bit more after getting more time 0:14:44.650 --> 0:14:47.340 to look at the game, the Monday night game with 0:14:47.360 --> 0:14:50.020 the Chiefs, which we didn't have as much time on Tuesday. 0:14:50.100 --> 0:14:53.760 We had more on Thursday. This line has gone in 0:14:53.800 --> 0:14:56.760 the direction of the Colts. It's moved from six and 0:14:56.780 --> 0:14:59.359 a half to six at most books. It's five and 0:14:59.380 --> 0:15:02.740 a half in the contest. Not getting the best of 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:06.300 the number, opposite of what we're getting with Seattle. But 0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:07.160 I think I still like it. 0:15:10.190 --> 0:15:11.950 Yeah, and I try not to harp too much on 0:15:11.970 --> 0:15:14.690 the best number here just because we got burned plenty 0:15:14.710 --> 0:15:15.530 of times in the past. 0:15:15.610 --> 0:15:16.090 Totally. 0:15:16.490 --> 0:15:17.830 Because we just didn't take the number. 0:15:18.350 --> 0:15:20.830 And it's rare we actually just lose by half a 0:15:20.890 --> 0:15:23.730 point because we didn't get the best. So here it's 0:15:23.770 --> 0:15:27.590 just simply saying that this number is still inflated. This 0:15:27.630 --> 0:15:31.190 number should still be closer to 3.5-3. The fact that 0:15:31.230 --> 0:15:34.870 it's still ballooned up so much. I'm going to love India. Yes, 0:15:34.970 --> 0:15:36.990 could they get rolled here and Daniel Jones is still 0:15:37.030 --> 0:15:37.470 not ready? 0:15:37.530 --> 0:15:37.890 Of course. 0:15:37.930 --> 0:15:40.840 We saw last week he just didn't move like he 0:15:40.900 --> 0:15:43.600 would before the injury last year, right in the pocket. 0:15:43.620 --> 0:15:46.080 He just was not the same quarterback. But on the 0:15:46.100 --> 0:15:48.110 flip side, he still made a bunch of really nice throws. 0:15:48.350 --> 0:15:50.230 They still were able to run the ball against the Ravens. 0:15:50.290 --> 0:15:52.970 It was just the Ravens came out and put up 0:15:53.090 --> 0:15:55.670 whatever it was, 25-30 in the first half, and it 0:15:55.690 --> 0:15:59.900 was just over in that game. So Chiefs, they always 0:15:59.920 --> 0:16:02.380 find a way to win, but Pat rarely blows teams out. 0:16:02.420 --> 0:16:04.320 Now you're asking him to blow a team out back-to-back 0:16:04.380 --> 0:16:07.800 weeks on a short week, let alone. So it just 0:16:07.840 --> 0:16:10.930 feels like a total– Setup game. Public will be hammering 0:16:10.950 --> 0:16:13.550 this Chiefs team. They're all over it. Every money line, 0:16:13.630 --> 0:16:16.080 every teaser, every guy I talk to is like, yeah. 0:16:16.300 --> 0:16:18.220 Every Sunday night game, just like last week, every Sunday 0:16:18.240 --> 0:16:20.940 night bet was tied to Dallas. It's the same thing 0:16:20.960 --> 0:16:23.780 with the Chiefs. Everyone's parlays, teasers, everything's tied to this 0:16:23.800 --> 0:16:26.620 Chiefs game. Feels like the same thing we did with 0:16:26.680 --> 0:16:30.180 Colts and the Giants last week. Probably got a free 0:16:30.260 --> 0:16:32.590 extra point, point and a half on the Giants last week. 0:16:33.170 --> 0:16:35.390 Same here with the Colts. We're still getting a free 0:16:35.430 --> 0:16:39.080 two points. We're still getting a five and a half, six. So, Um, yeah, 0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:40.619 six and a half. If you could still get it 0:16:40.700 --> 0:16:43.920 out there, no brainer, but for us five and a 0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:45.660 half for contest, I won't let that scare it off. 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.020 I just, I see this being a field goal game 0:16:48.040 --> 0:16:49.940 rather than a touchdown or a six point game. 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:54.220 Pittsburgh at new England. This was Simon says, I think 0:16:54.260 --> 0:16:57.000 we both believe that the Steelers offense, uh, by the way, 0:16:57.040 --> 0:17:00.710 Pittsburgh's a five and a half point underdog at new England. Uh, 0:17:00.950 --> 0:17:05.170 I think we both believe that the Steelers offense was 0:17:05.270 --> 0:17:09.370 better than the stats showed. And the defense was excellent. 0:17:10.190 --> 0:17:15.600 Four superior pass rushers in TJ Watt, Cam Hayward, Keanu Benton, 0:17:15.720 --> 0:17:21.460 Alex Highsmith. No A.J. Brown for Drake May. The number 0:17:21.520 --> 0:17:26.480 is five and a half in the contest. The weather 0:17:26.580 --> 0:17:32.200 is a little bit tricky. To me, this is going 0:17:32.220 --> 0:17:35.480 to be, we're going to have probably three games to 0:17:35.500 --> 0:17:38.240 choose our fifth. And this is one of those games 0:17:38.780 --> 0:17:41.369 on a confidence level of some of the other games 0:17:41.400 --> 0:17:44.250 we're talking about here. How are you ranking Pittsburgh? 0:17:46.730 --> 0:17:49.449 Yeah, I still, still love Pittsburgh. Still, still bet into it. 0:17:51.270 --> 0:17:53.150 I'm in the same kind of boat here with Arizona 0:17:53.170 --> 0:17:56.530 where it's like, we know one of these teams is 0:17:56.570 --> 0:17:59.010 going to lose because it's just, we have the data 0:17:59.030 --> 0:18:01.710 of these teams are of extended rest, especially in week 0:18:01.790 --> 0:18:05.030 one coming into week two, how much they perform. My, 0:18:05.310 --> 0:18:08.370 my view of this one is, I just think that's 0:18:08.390 --> 0:18:09.889 a lot of time for a guy like Drake May 0:18:09.910 --> 0:18:11.790 to sit on it and think about as a young 0:18:11.830 --> 0:18:14.190 quarterback and look at the matchup. 0:18:15.130 --> 0:18:15.850 This is a dream. 0:18:15.910 --> 0:18:18.100 If you think about Pittsburgh, I mean, obviously it's bad 0:18:18.119 --> 0:18:21.100 that Joey Porter's out, but their front seven should give 0:18:21.180 --> 0:18:24.360 just like Seattle did real problems to this Patriots team. 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:26.700 And just look at the matchup. 0:18:26.740 --> 0:18:29.859 If it is bad weather, that to me plays into 0:18:29.940 --> 0:18:32.580 Pittsburgh where it's like Pittsburgh wants to be a sloppy 0:18:32.640 --> 0:18:35.920 kind of dirty type of game where Rodgers excels within 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:39.020 those quick throws, those short passes, where he's weaknesses downfield. 0:18:39.820 --> 0:18:41.640 I mean, if it's bad rain, there won't be pushing 0:18:41.660 --> 0:18:43.560 the ball downfield regardless, which I think could help us 0:18:43.600 --> 0:18:47.320 as well. So yeah, it's, it's, it's a tough game 0:18:47.359 --> 0:18:49.370 to really size up here. Cause it feels like this 0:18:49.420 --> 0:18:52.050 line is still built on what the Patriots did last year. 0:18:52.810 --> 0:18:54.730 And the general public doesn't trust Pittsburgh. 0:18:54.790 --> 0:18:58.010 Like Pittsburgh just played so poorly here. So another game, 0:18:58.070 --> 0:19:00.050 it feels like it's pros versus pros. Like the professionals 0:19:00.070 --> 0:19:02.050 are all over Pittsburgh. The public is going to be 0:19:02.090 --> 0:19:04.369 over New England, right? Extended rest. Like we talked about, it's, 0:19:05.470 --> 0:19:07.619 a game you expect for able to bounce back, especially 0:19:07.640 --> 0:19:08.080 after a loss. 0:19:08.100 --> 0:19:09.420 I don't, I think Drake may in his. 0:19:09.380 --> 0:19:14.040 Career has after a loss is like 13 and a, 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:17.060 like he just, he bounced back really well in these 0:19:17.100 --> 0:19:20.840 exact scenarios. So, um, yeah, we might be walking into 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:23.320 it here, but I just, I can't break away from it. 0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:25.060 I love this Pittsburgh number. I think there's like one 0:19:25.100 --> 0:19:27.220 or two books still at four and a half. So 0:19:28.020 --> 0:19:29.520 if that's the only book in your state, sure. 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:29.869 Take it. 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.010 But if not shop around, find the five and a half, 0:19:32.030 --> 0:19:34.639 there's plenty out there. And, If we're lucky, maybe this 0:19:34.680 --> 0:19:38.020 touches six by kickoff. But, yeah, that would be the 0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:41.770 only reason we stay away from it. It's just– not 0:19:41.790 --> 0:19:43.510 that it feels too easy, but it really does. I 0:19:43.530 --> 0:19:45.810 just don't understand the number. It's just so ballooned up. 0:19:45.869 --> 0:19:48.250 It's like, what, the Patriots are really about to blow 0:19:48.290 --> 0:19:52.040 up Pittsburgh here? I just– view the Patriots being that 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:53.660 good of a team. They just do not feel like 0:19:54.340 --> 0:19:56.240 that great of a team, and especially the fact that 0:19:56.260 --> 0:19:58.950 we've talked about where it's like, Henderson's not fully 100%. A.J. 0:19:58.940 --> 0:19:59.560 's not. 0:20:00.140 --> 0:20:02.950 I'm just going to play in this game. Those are, 0:20:03.600 --> 0:20:05.760 you could easily say, two or three of the biggest 0:20:05.820 --> 0:20:10.070