1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: Ka boom. If you thought four hours a day, minutes 2 00:00:05,680 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: a week was enough, I think again. He's the last 3 00:00:08,960 --> 00:00:12,559 Speaker 1: remnants of the old republic a sole fashion of fairness. 4 00:00:12,680 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 1: He treats crackheads in the ghetto gutter the same as 5 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:19,720 Speaker 1: the rich pill poppers in the penthouse to clearing house 6 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: of hot takes, break free for something special. The Fifth 7 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: Hour with Ben Maller starts right now in the air everywhere, 8 00:00:33,400 --> 00:00:36,720 Speaker 1: back at it. A new weekend is upon us, another 9 00:00:37,440 --> 00:00:42,159 Speaker 1: addition of the Fifth Hour with Ben Maller and Danny 10 00:00:42,360 --> 00:00:48,040 Speaker 1: g Here we are kicking off a championship weekend in 11 00:00:48,080 --> 00:00:50,880 Speaker 1: the NFL, and I was thinking about it. I was like, well, listen, 12 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,480 Speaker 1: who do I want to talk to for championship weekend 13 00:00:54,480 --> 00:01:00,480 Speaker 1: in the NFL. And there's a handful of roughly five 14 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:05,839 Speaker 1: people in the gambling world that I think are great 15 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:09,199 Speaker 1: radio And one of those five people we are lucky 16 00:01:09,319 --> 00:01:12,600 Speaker 1: enough to have on today on this edition of the 17 00:01:12,640 --> 00:01:17,200 Speaker 1: Fifth Hour. And it is a conversation because, as you know, 18 00:01:17,520 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 1: during the Overnight show, five nights a week, four hours 19 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 1: a night, we only have paid callers that we talked to. 20 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: We do not have any guests. Paid guests. If you have. 21 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:29,399 Speaker 1: I don't like the term guests. I feel like that 22 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 1: the term guest is blah, bad term. So instead it's 23 00:01:34,720 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 1: just people I like to hang out with and I 24 00:01:36,480 --> 00:01:38,759 Speaker 1: want to learn more about and and all that. And 25 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:42,320 Speaker 1: one of those people is Todd Ferman. Now, if you 26 00:01:42,360 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 1: are a regular listener to Fox Sports Radio, which I 27 00:01:44,800 --> 00:01:47,400 Speaker 1: assume you are because you're listening to this podcast, which 28 00:01:47,440 --> 00:01:50,080 Speaker 1: is a spin off of the Ben Maler Show, which 29 00:01:50,120 --> 00:01:53,680 Speaker 1: is in the air everywhere on the vast uh Fox 30 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: Sports Radio network and over the years, and one of 31 00:01:57,120 --> 00:02:00,720 Speaker 1: the great voices that pop u up and I hear 32 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:04,440 Speaker 1: this guy on just about every show on Fox Sports 33 00:02:04,520 --> 00:02:10,040 Speaker 1: Radio is Todd Furman. And Todd has had television shows 34 00:02:10,120 --> 00:02:13,240 Speaker 1: over the years. He's got a podcast, he's got this, 35 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: that and the other thing. And he was the the 36 00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:20,120 Speaker 1: early guy at FS one when they launched that back 37 00:02:20,200 --> 00:02:23,959 Speaker 1: in the day, and he had a very heavy involvement 38 00:02:24,720 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: in their gambling program. And he's got a very interesting life. 39 00:02:29,440 --> 00:02:34,840 Speaker 1: I've I've heard Todd on Fox Sports Radio shows before mine, 40 00:02:35,080 --> 00:02:41,120 Speaker 1: shows after mine, uh not really mine, over over the years, 41 00:02:41,160 --> 00:02:43,640 Speaker 1: and so I'm excited to catch up with him. And 42 00:02:43,760 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 1: I've heard some interesting things about him. Uh. Growing up 43 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:51,200 Speaker 1: Todd is like a gambling UH prodigy UH in in 44 00:02:51,280 --> 00:02:53,960 Speaker 1: the Chicago area and just crunching the numbers at a 45 00:02:53,960 --> 00:02:56,880 Speaker 1: young age and then ending up working at the casino. So, 46 00:02:56,960 --> 00:03:02,800 Speaker 1: without further ado, we welcome into the Magic podcast Box here, 47 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:07,040 Speaker 1: the one and only Todd Ferman. Todd, I am excited 48 00:03:07,080 --> 00:03:09,399 Speaker 1: to have you on. I'm a big fan. I love 49 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:13,079 Speaker 1: the way that you are able to communicate the gambling 50 00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: lingo to the layman um. But how did our paths 51 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: not cross more regularly over the years here at Fox 52 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 1: Sports Radio? How did this happen? Todd? You know, I'm 53 00:03:24,480 --> 00:03:27,120 Speaker 1: never quite sure, Ben. I mean, you get into a 54 00:03:27,240 --> 00:03:29,520 Speaker 1: routine and you become a creature of habit and with 55 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,600 Speaker 1: so many personalities that do things the right way on 56 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:36,240 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio, and everybody with guests better late than 57 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:37,800 Speaker 1: never the way I look at it. So I'm looking 58 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,240 Speaker 1: forward us having a little bit more long form chat 59 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,360 Speaker 1: today than we ever could with an eighth and seminute 60 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:46,400 Speaker 1: radio spot. Yeah, and I gotta tell you for years 61 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:49,480 Speaker 1: on Sunday night, you know, doing the the overnight shot. 62 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,840 Speaker 1: Come in Sunday night and I would hear you on 63 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: with Arnie and UH and playing and those guys or whatever, 64 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: and it was just ranting, and how do you have 65 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: you dealt with the staking genius because he's a he's 66 00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:04,040 Speaker 1: an interesting cat, that guy. Oh, or working with Arnie, 67 00:04:04,040 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: you know what. It goes back even before his time 68 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:08,280 Speaker 1: of Fox Sports Radio and he was doing a Sunday 69 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: morning sports gambling show across Canada as well. And so 70 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:14,800 Speaker 1: I've known Arnie for years and you have to take 71 00:04:14,880 --> 00:04:16,599 Speaker 1: him with the grain of salt. One of the nicest 72 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,680 Speaker 1: guys out there, but there is nobody a bigger fan 73 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:24,039 Speaker 1: of his lame brain series and completely unfounded approaches to 74 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 1: the gambling markets than Arnie. So you have to make 75 00:04:26,640 --> 00:04:28,800 Speaker 1: sure you're on your toes. You know, you're inevitably going 76 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:32,160 Speaker 1: to get him drinking his Arizona Wildcats, his Miami Dolphins, 77 00:04:32,240 --> 00:04:34,240 Speaker 1: or his New York Nick's kool aid, and you kind 78 00:04:34,240 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 1: of have to chop out his legs. Thankfully, for the 79 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:39,400 Speaker 1: rest of us, and probably not for Arnie's sake, none 80 00:04:39,400 --> 00:04:41,480 Speaker 1: of those teams have been really relevant as far as 81 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 1: the national landscape is concerned. So it makes him much 82 00:04:44,440 --> 00:04:47,400 Speaker 1: more tolerable on a weekly week basis. Now, heaven helped 83 00:04:47,440 --> 00:04:49,920 Speaker 1: all of us of his Arizona Wildcats under a first 84 00:04:50,000 --> 00:04:51,839 Speaker 1: year head coach, find a way to get all the 85 00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:54,159 Speaker 1: way to New Orleans in the final four. There's a 86 00:04:54,160 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: good chance that I won't be picking up my phone 87 00:04:56,000 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 1: on those Sunday nights during the tournament for many of 88 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,920 Speaker 1: our lovely Fox producers. Well, yeah know and Todd I. 89 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 1: I knew Arnie a long time, even before foxbus rade 90 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,520 Speaker 1: also and he lost when he came to l A 91 00:05:06,680 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 1: to do he did like an afternoon drive show. He 92 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:13,920 Speaker 1: was from Chicago. He came to l A, not from Chicago. 93 00:05:14,080 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 1: He came back to l A to do an afternoon 94 00:05:15,560 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 1: drive show, and he immediately started ripping the Lakers and 95 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:21,520 Speaker 1: in these are this is a long time they had 96 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,080 Speaker 1: Shack and Kobe right, and they're never gonna win anything. 97 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,560 Speaker 1: And so he made a wager on the air. He's like, well, 98 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,920 Speaker 1: if the Lakers win, I'll wash everyone's car. And then, 99 00:05:32,160 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: of course the Lakers went on this little run. They 100 00:05:33,960 --> 00:05:36,839 Speaker 1: won a bunch of championships, and so Arnie we we 101 00:05:36,880 --> 00:05:39,360 Speaker 1: had to buy out a car dealership, not a car dealership, 102 00:05:39,360 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 1: a car wash place and washed everyone's car. But then 103 00:05:42,080 --> 00:05:45,719 Speaker 1: Arnie just sat around and smoked cigars in the Hawaiian shirt, 104 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: and the rest of us at the radio station ended 105 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: up washing all the cars. It was that, you know, 106 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:52,800 Speaker 1: he is the stinking jeans. But I want to learn 107 00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,440 Speaker 1: more about Utah all right now. The word on the 108 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:58,640 Speaker 1: street is that you were like you were a gambling 109 00:05:58,680 --> 00:06:02,240 Speaker 1: prodigy growing up that yet you know, even in you 110 00:06:02,279 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: know school, going back to like high school or before that, 111 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: you were you were studying the numbers back then. Is 112 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:12,120 Speaker 1: this an accurate portrayal of a young Todd Ferman? It 113 00:06:12,320 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 1: is a fairly accurate portrayal, But prodigy is probably the 114 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 1: nicest way, uh to put it. There were a lot 115 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,400 Speaker 1: of folks, whether they be coaches or teachers throughout my 116 00:06:21,520 --> 00:06:24,440 Speaker 1: pathway to this fine occupation that might have used the 117 00:06:24,560 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 1: term degenerate more often than not when you look at 118 00:06:27,760 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 1: the dynamics in play. But I always had a passion 119 00:06:30,360 --> 00:06:32,760 Speaker 1: for sports and an aptitude for numbers. So it was 120 00:06:32,800 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: a perfect confluence of events. My old man had been 121 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,160 Speaker 1: involved in the stock market, so some of that gambling 122 00:06:38,279 --> 00:06:42,400 Speaker 1: DNA obviously gets passed down from generation to generation. Uh. 123 00:06:42,440 --> 00:06:45,000 Speaker 1: And from the earliest days I can remember on Sunday 124 00:06:45,080 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: mornings driving a hockey practice during you know, November and 125 00:06:48,720 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 1: December and January were absolutely frigid in the Chicago suburbs. 126 00:06:52,520 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: My dad would hand me the Chicago Tribune or the 127 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,520 Speaker 1: Chicago Sun Times. We go through the glands at Culver 128 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:00,400 Speaker 1: Lines back in the day, or Danny Sheridan, and we 129 00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 1: go back and forth picking an NFL games in college football, 130 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 1: whether it was Bett in a bucket game or I 131 00:07:05,279 --> 00:07:08,200 Speaker 1: had a paper is dunkin donuts at eight am after 132 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: we wrapped up hockey practice and those frozen ice rink. 133 00:07:11,080 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: And then we got to a point where he goes, 134 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:13,880 Speaker 1: you know what, I'm just gonna let you pick all 135 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: the games. I'd start to beat him a little bit, 136 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: and he was trying to figure out a method to 137 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,800 Speaker 1: my madness. But fast forward to my time in high school, 138 00:07:20,840 --> 00:07:22,520 Speaker 1: and of course the first thing that you want to 139 00:07:22,520 --> 00:07:25,280 Speaker 1: try and do is find an on campus bookie, because 140 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:29,560 Speaker 1: you're not sending money to Coasta, Rica or Antiguo or 141 00:07:29,600 --> 00:07:31,640 Speaker 1: some of the islands back then, see if I find 142 00:07:31,640 --> 00:07:34,120 Speaker 1: a guy that's taken ten bucks a game. You're studying, 143 00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: you know, off the old school newspapers because you don't 144 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,280 Speaker 1: want your internet history to be made available for public consumption, 145 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:42,840 Speaker 1: and you gradually try and make a book here there, 146 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: and you come home with a pocket full of cash, 147 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 1: and of course the first inclination from your parents as 148 00:07:47,040 --> 00:07:49,640 Speaker 1: they think you're selling drugs because that's the quickest fix 149 00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:51,840 Speaker 1: to being able to make money at that age. And 150 00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:55,000 Speaker 1: lo and behold, it kind of started my path along 151 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: the way at a very young age. But the one thing, 152 00:07:57,400 --> 00:07:59,160 Speaker 1: as much as I want to bust my dad's balls 153 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:02,000 Speaker 1: and have to get my mom credit, they were always supportive, um, 154 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:03,920 Speaker 1: and I have them to thank for the pathway I've 155 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:06,480 Speaker 1: been able to carve out for a professional standpoint where 156 00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,960 Speaker 1: they went, hey, look, we don't encourage underage gambling, so 157 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:10,680 Speaker 1: I don't want to give that kind of task that 158 00:08:10,800 --> 00:08:13,280 Speaker 1: endorsement here, but pretty much said, hey, if this is 159 00:08:13,320 --> 00:08:16,040 Speaker 1: something you're passionate about, go about doing things the right way. 160 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:19,400 Speaker 1: Understand the pitfall. Uh. And I tell my lucky stars 161 00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 1: every day that I've been able to turn you know what, 162 00:08:21,880 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: for most is a recreational pursuit into a full time career. 163 00:08:25,640 --> 00:08:27,080 Speaker 1: And I'd like to think that I helped have a 164 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:30,000 Speaker 1: hand in conjunction with the folks at Fox during you know, 165 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:34,720 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Live in its infancy, taking mainstream taking sports 166 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:38,000 Speaker 1: gambling and gradually bringing it into the mainstream to the 167 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 1: point now where we've really seen a huge boom since 168 00:08:40,160 --> 00:08:42,400 Speaker 1: pass was repealed a couple of years ago. Yeah. No, 169 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:44,760 Speaker 1: and you've done a great job. I remember when I 170 00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,960 Speaker 1: was younger and listening to guys talk about gambling. It 171 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: was always like kind of a shady guy with a 172 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:52,920 Speaker 1: New York accent on the radio on like Saturday morning 173 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:55,679 Speaker 1: who bought some airtime and said, I want to get 174 00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: your boat. You know, you gotta listen to my picks. 175 00:08:58,640 --> 00:09:00,040 Speaker 1: I'm gonna get you. But I kind of kind of 176 00:09:00,080 --> 00:09:03,600 Speaker 1: just like under the table type stuff. But you obviously 177 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: have a much better delivery. You played hockey there, Were 178 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:10,080 Speaker 1: you good at hockey? How far did you get in hockey? Yeah? 179 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,240 Speaker 1: I was decent back in the day. I mean, let's 180 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:14,959 Speaker 1: not kid ourselves. When you're born of Jewish heritage and 181 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:17,760 Speaker 1: your five foot tenant about a hundred forty pounds soaking wet, 182 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,760 Speaker 1: you have a ceiling as far as your athletic pursuits 183 00:09:20,760 --> 00:09:24,000 Speaker 1: are concerned. So there were never any delusions of grandeur 184 00:09:24,200 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: and a chance to play in the NHL. But I 185 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,040 Speaker 1: went through the US Development program, participated in a lot 186 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 1: of big camps as a teenager in a couple of 187 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: state championships, have an All New England Award to my 188 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,720 Speaker 1: credit TAUH, but never got to Division one level. Will 189 00:09:36,760 --> 00:09:39,920 Speaker 1: played three years of Divisions three and that was about 190 00:09:39,960 --> 00:09:42,320 Speaker 1: as far as my hockey career could take me. So 191 00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:46,480 Speaker 1: I love my experiences, obviously being v being able to 192 00:09:46,480 --> 00:09:49,280 Speaker 1: play a sport that competitively for so many years. But 193 00:09:49,559 --> 00:09:51,240 Speaker 1: when I look at my friends that were real good 194 00:09:51,240 --> 00:09:53,280 Speaker 1: in basketball and you realize that they get to go 195 00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 1: to warm weather destinations during the winter, it's a hell 196 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 1: of a lot more exotic than spending a weekend in 197 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:03,199 Speaker 1: December January and so Ernie, Ontario or Sudbury or thunder 198 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,080 Speaker 1: Bay letting people fire vulcanized rubber at your head for 199 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 1: the better part of forty five minutes. So probably not 200 00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:12,200 Speaker 1: the best career choice in that particular regard, but I 201 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 1: love playing goalie. You gotta be a little bit nuts 202 00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:17,559 Speaker 1: and probably helped explain, you know, why I'm at this 203 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,880 Speaker 1: point as far as my profession is concerned. And like 204 00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:23,439 Speaker 1: you know, anybody who plays youth sports and pursues him 205 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:26,320 Speaker 1: you know, hopefully to the intercollegiate level, knows the valuable 206 00:10:26,400 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 1: lessons being a teammate teaches you that you can then 207 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:31,360 Speaker 1: translate into other walks of life. Now you still you 208 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 1: played hockey. Are you a hockey fan? Do you consider 209 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 1: yourself a hockey fan asn't a grown up as an 210 00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,200 Speaker 1: adult and doing everything that you do, or do you 211 00:10:38,240 --> 00:10:41,400 Speaker 1: have you moved on completely from the sport of hockey. No, 212 00:10:41,760 --> 00:10:43,920 Speaker 1: it's funny. Actually, So I grew up a New York 213 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 1: Ranger fan in the Chicago subbers my old man from 214 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:48,200 Speaker 1: New York. And so I was a Nick fan, a 215 00:10:48,360 --> 00:10:51,600 Speaker 1: Ranger fan, a Giant fan, and a Yankees fan. And 216 00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:54,840 Speaker 1: I remember when the Rangers broke their fifty year curse 217 00:10:55,360 --> 00:10:57,280 Speaker 1: when in the Stanley Cooper runner around the house as 218 00:10:57,280 --> 00:10:59,880 Speaker 1: a twelve year old, and so I followed the Ranger 219 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,400 Speaker 1: all the way through. Got to the point in college 220 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,720 Speaker 1: where I, you know, I don't want to say disenfranchise 221 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:06,839 Speaker 1: with the sport, but maybe that's the best word to 222 00:11:06,960 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 1: kind of describe it. And I had a falling out. 223 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:11,720 Speaker 1: Full disclosure, I haven't put on my gear to stop 224 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,000 Speaker 1: a po since the end of my junior season in college. 225 00:11:14,320 --> 00:11:17,120 Speaker 1: No men's league, you know, street hockey, none of that 226 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 1: kind of thing. So, you know, I lost a little 227 00:11:19,480 --> 00:11:22,880 Speaker 1: bit of disaster for the game. But when Vegas ended 228 00:11:22,960 --> 00:11:25,839 Speaker 1: up getting an expansion franchise, the Golden Knights, as I 229 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:27,400 Speaker 1: think they're in their fifth season, it all kind of 230 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: blends together. I go, you know what, the hello that 231 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:31,600 Speaker 1: we're gonna get back into the sport. We're gonna kick 232 00:11:31,640 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: the tires in some season tickets. It'll be fun and 233 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: figure out the best way to get involved. Uh, And 234 00:11:37,000 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: it's really reinvigorated my love for the game. You have 235 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 1: been a season ticket holder since the first season, which 236 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,400 Speaker 1: you know was a relatively charmed existence before they came 237 00:11:44,440 --> 00:11:47,080 Speaker 1: up short against the Caps in the Stanley Cup Final. 238 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:49,600 Speaker 1: But I do love the sport. It's probably the one 239 00:11:49,600 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 1: winter sport other than football, that I follow the most 240 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:55,120 Speaker 1: intently on a night in, night out. Basis more so 241 00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 1: than the NBA, more southern college basketball. And as you 242 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:00,680 Speaker 1: can figure where I'm going with this, ben, it obviously 243 00:12:00,679 --> 00:12:02,880 Speaker 1: translates itself to wagerings. So I spent a ton of 244 00:12:02,920 --> 00:12:05,360 Speaker 1: time handicapping hockey from when they dropped the puck in 245 00:12:05,360 --> 00:12:07,720 Speaker 1: October until they hand out the greatest trophy in all 246 00:12:07,760 --> 00:12:09,960 Speaker 1: of sports. And you know, mill of June. Has that 247 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:12,120 Speaker 1: changed that because I remember back in the old days, 248 00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 1: hockey was an afterthought. Nobody really bet on hockey. And 249 00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: you know, mainstream is has it changed because of the 250 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:21,960 Speaker 1: game wing boom that's taken place, or is it still 251 00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,880 Speaker 1: way back behind all the other sports. It's probably if 252 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: you were ranking fifteen sports that people bet on, the 253 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,720 Speaker 1: NHL would probably be number sixteen here in the States. Now. Granted, 254 00:12:33,720 --> 00:12:35,880 Speaker 1: in Vegas you have seen a lot more handle and 255 00:12:35,920 --> 00:12:39,960 Speaker 1: betting interest in Golden Nights games, uh, typically when they play, 256 00:12:40,040 --> 00:12:42,160 Speaker 1: or at least in the first couple of seasons. You know, 257 00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:44,079 Speaker 1: the money that was bet on Golden Knights game, even 258 00:12:44,120 --> 00:12:46,280 Speaker 1: if it was a full card, would trump every other 259 00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 1: game combined. But it's not a market that's really lent 260 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:51,400 Speaker 1: itself to the recreational better. I think a lot of 261 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:54,600 Speaker 1: times money lines can be tricky areas for them to navigate. 262 00:12:55,440 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: When you look at over under his net five and 263 00:12:57,160 --> 00:13:00,720 Speaker 1: a half six range, it probably ends up getting included 264 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 1: in more betting tickets as parley fodder uh than anything else. 265 00:13:04,960 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 1: And I think the other part was hockey that's similar 266 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 1: to baseball, that can become challenging for a lot of folks, 267 00:13:10,440 --> 00:13:12,840 Speaker 1: Is it's actually a volume game. I mean normally for 268 00:13:12,880 --> 00:13:16,040 Speaker 1: the other sports I bet it's more methodical and trying 269 00:13:16,040 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 1: to limit some of my exposure. But when you're talking 270 00:13:18,480 --> 00:13:21,040 Speaker 1: about big price tags, you can have ebbs and flows, 271 00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 1: and you can have all sorts of puck luck going 272 00:13:23,280 --> 00:13:26,040 Speaker 1: your way and overtime God smiling upon you, and then 273 00:13:26,040 --> 00:13:28,840 Speaker 1: things can sour pretty quickly. Is it's a game that's 274 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:30,960 Speaker 1: got a ton of high variants because as we know, 275 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,080 Speaker 1: there's no better equalizer in any sport on any level 276 00:13:34,280 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: than a hot goalie. And anyone who's bet this sport 277 00:13:36,760 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: can know what it's like when your team has a 278 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:40,760 Speaker 1: forty shot advantage and you feel like, no matter what 279 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 1: you throw at the opposing that minder, it's never going in. 280 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:45,160 Speaker 1: So I want to go back when you you get 281 00:13:45,200 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 1: into the gambling business, how old were you when you 282 00:13:47,800 --> 00:13:51,000 Speaker 1: started working at one of the casinos? What roughly what 283 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 1: age were you? So I did it run? I was 284 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,480 Speaker 1: right out of college. So I took a year off 285 00:13:55,520 --> 00:13:58,840 Speaker 1: between high school and college. UM and so I graduated 286 00:13:58,840 --> 00:14:00,280 Speaker 1: a year later, which would have put me a two 287 00:14:00,360 --> 00:14:03,800 Speaker 1: thousand five graduated back east. I end up coming out 288 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:06,240 Speaker 1: to Vegas in the spring of two thousand and six 289 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,320 Speaker 1: and got right into the gambling business then. Now, I 290 00:14:10,320 --> 00:14:13,040 Speaker 1: didn't start my career at Caesar's behind the counter working 291 00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 1: in the sports book. I was doing more of the 292 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: corporate finance, a lot of special events, helping design casino floors, 293 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:21,480 Speaker 1: which was an incredible experience for somebody to kind of 294 00:14:21,560 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 1: see the fruits of their labor manifest itself when you're 295 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,080 Speaker 1: walking through Caesar's on a Saturday night at twelve o'clock 296 00:14:27,080 --> 00:14:29,240 Speaker 1: with all that energy and you realize, hey, look, there's 297 00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: a reason there's a roulette table in that spot, three 298 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: card pokers there. Uh, and you know double deck black 299 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:37,760 Speaker 1: jacket is because you've suggested to the table games operators, 300 00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: these are the ways that we can help maximize some 301 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: of our revenues. So that was an invaluable experience. But 302 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,280 Speaker 1: always knew that I wanted to get into the sports 303 00:14:45,280 --> 00:14:48,080 Speaker 1: side of things, so it was forever grateful that I 304 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: had a mentor in the space who's still very much 305 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,880 Speaker 1: involved in sports gambling out here named Chuck S. Desito, 306 00:14:52,960 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 1: who I would go down and spend the weekends behind 307 00:14:55,000 --> 00:14:58,280 Speaker 1: the counter Caesar's in addition to my Monday through Friday 308 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,040 Speaker 1: to kind of ask some of the dumb questions. It 309 00:15:00,080 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 1: is about why lines moved this way, how it set 310 00:15:02,200 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 1: futures market, how you profile the customers. This, of course 311 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:07,880 Speaker 1: all when we did all of our business over the 312 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: counter instead of any other way. And it provided, you know, 313 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 1: more or less the perfect foundation from a comprehensive business 314 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,040 Speaker 1: standpoint to learn race and sports, to learn the casino 315 00:15:17,120 --> 00:15:19,040 Speaker 1: side of things. And it was probably about three and 316 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 1: a half years, the timelines a little bit blurry before 317 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 1: I was able to transition fully into the sports betting 318 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:27,200 Speaker 1: business itself. So when when you cross over, when you 319 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 1: you get a little taste of it, and then you 320 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 1: cross over and you've been following the stuff since you 321 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:35,480 Speaker 1: were a kid, so now you're a young adult. Was 322 00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:39,440 Speaker 1: it like you imagine what you know behind the scenes? 323 00:15:39,640 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 1: Was it better? Was it? Was it worse when you 324 00:15:42,680 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 1: when you get a little taste of it. Oh, it 325 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,880 Speaker 1: was a lot worse. I mean, I'm not gonna set 326 00:15:46,920 --> 00:15:49,240 Speaker 1: here and I'm not gonna sit here and sugarcoat it 327 00:15:49,280 --> 00:15:52,200 Speaker 1: at all. I mean, I think people see sports gambling 328 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,160 Speaker 1: and they think, oh, it's always end to end excitement. 329 00:15:55,400 --> 00:15:57,440 Speaker 1: You're always on the edge of your seat, sweating out 330 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: you know, seven figure decisions. No, that couldn't be further 331 00:16:00,800 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: from the truth. Saturdays and Sundays in the fall, there's 332 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: no better place to be than in the sports book. 333 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 1: But Tuesdays in July, when you have nothing but baseball 334 00:16:09,520 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 1: going on, it can be a miserable existence trying to 335 00:16:12,840 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: figure out what you're doing as far as administrative paperwork, 336 00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: the babysitting of staff and everything else that comes along 337 00:16:18,720 --> 00:16:21,360 Speaker 1: with it. Uh. And it's a cliche that truly resonates 338 00:16:21,360 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: with me. Sports books basically are the same thing as 339 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,480 Speaker 1: when you build churches for Easter Sunday. You're busy one 340 00:16:27,560 --> 00:16:29,920 Speaker 1: day a weekend on some of the Marquee holidays, but 341 00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: for the lions share of time, there ain't much going 342 00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:35,280 Speaker 1: on and there's nothing sexy about it. It's not guys 343 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:39,320 Speaker 1: sitting in the back room smoking cigars, uh, drinking Louis Trey, 344 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,280 Speaker 1: trying to come up with numbers on what they're gonna 345 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,240 Speaker 1: hang for getaway day on a Wednesday. Between the Marlins 346 00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: and brewers. It's a lot of price takers and that 347 00:16:47,720 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 1: sort of thing. But the industry, to its credit, has 348 00:16:50,160 --> 00:16:53,600 Speaker 1: changed a little bit. I mean, with more mobile flexibility. 349 00:16:53,800 --> 00:16:56,680 Speaker 1: You know, the creativity is a lot more pronounced than 350 00:16:56,720 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: what it was back in the day when we had 351 00:16:58,320 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 1: relatively limited menus for sports betters. But it was a 352 00:17:01,920 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 1: lot more red tape and paperwork than anybody told me 353 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 1: about before I fully transitioned into working in the racist 354 00:17:07,320 --> 00:17:10,159 Speaker 1: sports room. And you've been all over this, so so 355 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:12,919 Speaker 1: I got to ask you. Now, I love amateur gambling, 356 00:17:13,359 --> 00:17:16,119 Speaker 1: but but how much when when they're setting the lines 357 00:17:16,200 --> 00:17:19,320 Speaker 1: behind the scenes, how much of that is just based 358 00:17:19,359 --> 00:17:21,720 Speaker 1: on punching numbers into a computer? And how much of 359 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:23,880 Speaker 1: that is a bunch of guys get on the phone 360 00:17:23,920 --> 00:17:26,680 Speaker 1: going back and forth saying, you know, here's what I think, 361 00:17:26,800 --> 00:17:28,880 Speaker 1: you know, this is what the line should be. Like, 362 00:17:28,920 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: what's the percentage based computers versus the human element? Well, 363 00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:35,800 Speaker 1: I mean this day and age, I mean the models 364 00:17:35,840 --> 00:17:38,520 Speaker 1: are so sophisticated that most of the big operators use 365 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:41,840 Speaker 1: that the computer does a line share of the heavy lifting. Now, 366 00:17:41,840 --> 00:17:44,720 Speaker 1: the computer models are only as strong as the inputs 367 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: and the weighted values that oddsmakers will use, the same 368 00:17:47,520 --> 00:17:50,600 Speaker 1: way sports betters do when they're building out their models. Um, 369 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:52,359 Speaker 1: and I was always taught at a young age, and 370 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,760 Speaker 1: I think it's still resonates now that you can put 371 00:17:54,760 --> 00:17:57,040 Speaker 1: your opinion into numbers when you open them. But you 372 00:17:57,080 --> 00:17:59,440 Speaker 1: know what your opinion is worth. It's worth one bet 373 00:17:59,440 --> 00:18:01,679 Speaker 1: from a risk acted better. So if I over the 374 00:18:01,720 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 1: game two and a half and the rest of the market, 375 00:18:03,920 --> 00:18:05,639 Speaker 1: or let's use it, you know, let's use the number 376 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:07,359 Speaker 1: like four. The rest of the betting market for an 377 00:18:07,440 --> 00:18:09,040 Speaker 1: NFL game is four and a half. And I open 378 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,800 Speaker 1: a game at four and one of your sharpest customers 379 00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:13,640 Speaker 1: comes in and they're betting a favorite with you at 380 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: minus four. You're not gonna be stubborn and say, my models, 381 00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: spit this out. You're moving the number and you're gonna 382 00:18:19,080 --> 00:18:21,879 Speaker 1: constantly play that cat and mouse games throughout the course 383 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:24,400 Speaker 1: of the line's life cycle figuring out where that point 384 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,679 Speaker 1: spread is. The one good thing I will say is 385 00:18:26,720 --> 00:18:28,800 Speaker 1: people get smarter and smarter, and they're a ton of 386 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:32,199 Speaker 1: sharp bookmakers, not only here in Vegas, across the country, 387 00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,760 Speaker 1: but around the world. You're starting to see a little 388 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:37,719 Speaker 1: bit more variants and prices and some of the models 389 00:18:37,720 --> 00:18:40,479 Speaker 1: that are out there because people realize, hey, look, the 390 00:18:40,480 --> 00:18:42,480 Speaker 1: only way you make money when you're in the sports 391 00:18:42,480 --> 00:18:44,720 Speaker 1: betting spaces by taking a bet, and if you hang 392 00:18:44,760 --> 00:18:47,000 Speaker 1: the same numbers as every other book in the world, 393 00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,080 Speaker 1: well you're not gonna be able to kind of match with. 394 00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: So I applaud the way the space is going. I 395 00:18:51,560 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 1: think it's getting a lot more innovative. But the old 396 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:58,199 Speaker 1: school days of using the wax pencil the whiteboard and 397 00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:00,840 Speaker 1: guys kind of scribbling things down in notebook before they 398 00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:03,320 Speaker 1: hang a number that maybe four or five points different 399 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: than what their neighbor has down the street are behind 400 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:09,120 Speaker 1: them because technology has just prevented that. Whereas I could 401 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:11,280 Speaker 1: go on right now we're having this conversation, and if 402 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: there's a number that's one, one and a half points 403 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,040 Speaker 1: off and I feel I need to bet it, I 404 00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,080 Speaker 1: can get a bet down without ever leaving the confines 405 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:19,719 Speaker 1: in my office. Yeah, and again for the for the novice, 406 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:23,520 Speaker 1: I can't assume everyone has an immense gambling knowledge. But 407 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,960 Speaker 1: the whole point, when you're running a gambling operation, you 408 00:19:26,960 --> 00:19:28,960 Speaker 1: don't really necessarily care who wins, right, You just want 409 00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:30,479 Speaker 1: to make sure the money's even. That's how you make 410 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: your money, right, You don't really concerned about you know, hey, 411 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:35,919 Speaker 1: this team's gotta win your We're just as long as 412 00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 1: you have money on even side, you're gonna win right 413 00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,320 Speaker 1: on each side. Right, Definitely, there's a huge power that 414 00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:43,280 Speaker 1: comes from the eleven to tend that the house has 415 00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:46,200 Speaker 1: working uh in its favor. But at the same time, 416 00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,680 Speaker 1: you know, the idea that money is balanced on most 417 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:51,760 Speaker 1: games is a little bit of a myth because when 418 00:19:51,800 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: you look at it, professional betters have a lot more 419 00:19:54,880 --> 00:19:57,440 Speaker 1: say in terms of how the market gets shaped. And 420 00:19:57,520 --> 00:19:59,679 Speaker 1: you know, one of the age old thought processes it's 421 00:19:59,680 --> 00:20:02,320 Speaker 1: still a flies now, is that every dollar that enters 422 00:20:02,359 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 1: the sports betting marketplace isn't the scene. Uh, if I 423 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 1: were to go in and make a bet you know 424 00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 1: what any of these casinos for substantially smaller stake and 425 00:20:09,960 --> 00:20:13,159 Speaker 1: say someone like Arnie, they may respect my opinion a 426 00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 1: lot more despite being lopsided on a particular game. And 427 00:20:16,840 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 1: so that's why you always hear the terminology and I 428 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 1: use it the same pros versus Joe's, or you hear 429 00:20:22,040 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 1: reverse line movement and things along those lines where the 430 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,800 Speaker 1: money may not be balanced, but sharper opinions are on 431 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,639 Speaker 1: one particular side of the game. And that's how the 432 00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 1: book tries to set things up. They're more than happy 433 00:20:32,080 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 1: to pay out their sharp betters if they have more 434 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:36,959 Speaker 1: than enough recreational action on the other side that tells them, 435 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,399 Speaker 1: you know what our number is, right, We're happy to 436 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,320 Speaker 1: take one sided action. And a similar scenario that we 437 00:20:42,359 --> 00:20:45,359 Speaker 1: saw unfolding the Divisional round. I mean, you had professional 438 00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,800 Speaker 1: money that came in on San Francisco, recreational bettors couldn't 439 00:20:48,800 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: get enough of betting Green Bay and teasers betting them 440 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:53,360 Speaker 1: on the money line just to win outright or lay 441 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:55,960 Speaker 1: in the points. But the number never moved past six, 442 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:59,280 Speaker 1: and books end up reaping a huge windfall from those 443 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: particular higgins, more so than what you'll see on a 444 00:21:02,480 --> 00:21:05,360 Speaker 1: Big West basketball game between Cal Santa Barber and Cal 445 00:21:05,440 --> 00:21:08,440 Speaker 1: State Northridge that tips off at eleven o'clock Eastern time 446 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,719 Speaker 1: on a Thursday night during college troop scene. Sure, and 447 00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:12,080 Speaker 1: the other thing about it, when you talk about the 448 00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,760 Speaker 1: gambling uh space right now, this is like a gold 449 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:16,280 Speaker 1: rust the last couple of years, and it's just going 450 00:21:16,320 --> 00:21:18,520 Speaker 1: to continue here with the as you said, a few 451 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,840 Speaker 1: years ago, they lifted the federal law on gambling, and 452 00:21:21,920 --> 00:21:24,880 Speaker 1: so what's the end game? And this ultimately, I don't 453 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 1: think every state's gonna have gambling because of the Bible 454 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,199 Speaker 1: Belt or whatnot. But how many states when this is 455 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,520 Speaker 1: all done here, when the dust settles, Todd will have 456 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,960 Speaker 1: legalized sports betting because it's not gonna be all fifty. 457 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:40,000 Speaker 1: But what's what's the number at? Yeah? I mean, honestly, 458 00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,240 Speaker 1: when I look at it, and this is an indictment 459 00:21:42,280 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: of anyone's politics or anything along those lines, but you 460 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: know you're gonna have states you talk about the Bible 461 00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: Belt that are going to be significantly more conservative than others. 462 00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,600 Speaker 1: I think Utah at last check, and I could be 463 00:21:53,640 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: wrong on this, so I'm sure people pointed out on 464 00:21:55,560 --> 00:21:58,040 Speaker 1: social media or a variety of other ways, might be 465 00:21:58,080 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 1: the only state that has no form of gambling in 466 00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:05,320 Speaker 1: any capacity, and I mean casinos, uh state lottery sports betting. 467 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:07,080 Speaker 1: So I think that's the state that will take a 468 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,240 Speaker 1: little while. But I would say, I mean, what we're 469 00:22:09,280 --> 00:22:12,359 Speaker 1: sitting here at the end of January two, you know, 470 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,840 Speaker 1: we were having the same discussion four or five years 471 00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 1: from now. I would stay with a very high level 472 00:22:16,880 --> 00:22:19,600 Speaker 1: of confidence that forty two to forty four states would 473 00:22:19,640 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: have some form of sports betting, whether being only a 474 00:22:22,520 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: couple of remaining holdouts that realize Hey, look, if our 475 00:22:26,119 --> 00:22:28,120 Speaker 1: state residents are going to bet, we want to get 476 00:22:28,119 --> 00:22:30,480 Speaker 1: our portion of the tax revenue rather than having them 477 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,320 Speaker 1: drive across state lines to kind of get down on games. Yeah, 478 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 1: and how how concerned to the people at the casinos 479 00:22:36,280 --> 00:22:40,280 Speaker 1: here that when California gets gambling. I get it's supposed 480 00:22:40,280 --> 00:22:42,920 Speaker 1: to happen already. I think COVID delayed that. But when 481 00:22:42,920 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 1: that eventually happens, is that gonna gonna hurt the casinos there? 482 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,119 Speaker 1: The people coming to the bigs doesn't really matter. Is 483 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:51,760 Speaker 1: it is a small percentage of people that go just 484 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: to bet on sports from California. Yeah, it may change 485 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,639 Speaker 1: the dynamic around big events like the super Bowl in 486 00:22:57,680 --> 00:23:00,919 Speaker 1: the n c A tournament, um where Vegas has always 487 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 1: been the mecca for guys and girls to kind of 488 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:07,040 Speaker 1: come together and have their betting bonanza for the better 489 00:23:07,080 --> 00:23:09,760 Speaker 1: part of a weekend or seventy two hours, whatever it 490 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 1: may be. But I think when you're looking at sports betting, 491 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,639 Speaker 1: it's just a way to kind of wet the appetite. 492 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: You know. The one great thing about sports betting, I 493 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 1: look at it through a slightly different lens than most 494 00:23:19,000 --> 00:23:21,280 Speaker 1: people because I see it as a behavior or I'm 495 00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:24,080 Speaker 1: doing it on my own with a higher level of professionalism. 496 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:26,960 Speaker 1: A lot of times, you know, emphasis on wins and losses, 497 00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,160 Speaker 1: but there is a huge social component to it, and 498 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,600 Speaker 1: so I think Vegas is never going to lose its 499 00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,639 Speaker 1: a lure in that particular regard. Now there's a chance 500 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,280 Speaker 1: that obviously if they built massive sports books uh throughout Riverside, 501 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: Inland Empire and other spots, that would people flock to 502 00:23:41,160 --> 00:23:44,639 Speaker 1: Vegas for NFL football on the weekend. Probably not, But 503 00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,199 Speaker 1: I don't think sports books out here really worry about it. 504 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,760 Speaker 1: We continue to break all sorts of record numbers as 505 00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:52,879 Speaker 1: far as betting handle is concerned, despite their being you know, 506 00:23:53,080 --> 00:23:55,960 Speaker 1: two or three states that seemingly come online every six months. 507 00:23:56,000 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 1: So I think it's the thought process that rising hides 508 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:02,920 Speaker 1: raise all ships. Uh In Vegas is still kind of 509 00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:05,639 Speaker 1: the epicenter for sports betting. The unfortunate part is that 510 00:24:05,680 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 1: we don't have all the same diverse options that you 511 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,639 Speaker 1: can in surrounding states. I mean, you go to Colorado, 512 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:13,879 Speaker 1: their newer operators and better bonus programs, the same thing 513 00:24:13,920 --> 00:24:17,600 Speaker 1: as Arizona. But Vegas still holds down the old guard 514 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,440 Speaker 1: and uh, I don't think even when California comes online, 515 00:24:20,480 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: which hopefully happens sooner rather than later, that you're going 516 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: to see a huge drop off in sports betting handle here. 517 00:24:25,119 --> 00:24:27,000 Speaker 1: Well and toun I, I remember a couple of years 518 00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,000 Speaker 1: ago the story came out that with the New Jersey 519 00:24:30,040 --> 00:24:33,640 Speaker 1: they actually have more people betting than in in Vegas. 520 00:24:33,840 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 1: And I guess New York is now online, right, so 521 00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:39,000 Speaker 1: they can start, you know, sports wagering in New York. So, 522 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,879 Speaker 1: but is everything controlled in Vegas like the way I 523 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 1: see it? Maybe I'm completely wrong the way I understand it, 524 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:48,280 Speaker 1: Like the lines, these other states don't really know what 525 00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,720 Speaker 1: they're doing, so they turned to people in Vegas and 526 00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:53,560 Speaker 1: the casinos in Vegas that are based there to set 527 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,119 Speaker 1: up their operations. Is that Is that an accurate portrayal 528 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: of how this is working state by state? And my 529 00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,760 Speaker 1: my kind of on the right path here and not quite. 530 00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,359 Speaker 1: And the only reason I say that is because every 531 00:25:05,400 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: major sports betting house has their own risk management team 532 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,119 Speaker 1: based in various states. So when you look at you know, 533 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:14,840 Speaker 1: fan Duel, for example, most of their trading team is 534 00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,480 Speaker 1: based in the New Jersey area, and it controls the 535 00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: betting markets and all the states where they're active, but 536 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,679 Speaker 1: you look at a bet MGM or a bet MGM. 537 00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:25,560 Speaker 1: I believe it is back East now as well. But 538 00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:29,280 Speaker 1: Caesar's is out here Caesar slash William hill Um. You're 539 00:25:29,280 --> 00:25:31,879 Speaker 1: talking about circus sports and a couple of the other books. 540 00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,399 Speaker 1: So it all depends where the risk management teams are based. 541 00:25:35,040 --> 00:25:38,120 Speaker 1: Above all else that Vegas isn't the be all end all, 542 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:41,480 Speaker 1: but the old school thought process, that Vegas happens to 543 00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,320 Speaker 1: know things faster than anybody else. It's probably still a 544 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 1: little bit sexier than saying the people in Weehawk in 545 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,280 Speaker 1: New Jersey have a better idea of how these games 546 00:25:48,320 --> 00:25:50,480 Speaker 1: are gonna fall. Yeah, that doesn't really work well on 547 00:25:50,640 --> 00:25:52,919 Speaker 1: radio or if you make a movie. You know you 548 00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:54,920 Speaker 1: don't you don't necessarily want that, I don't think, but 549 00:25:55,680 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 1: uh no, exactly, Caecucus in Newark aren't nearly as sexy 550 00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,600 Speaker 1: as a bright light of the Las Vegas trip. Yeah. 551 00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:04,640 Speaker 1: The other thing I wanted to run by here they 552 00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:08,560 Speaker 1: call the exotic bets are the prop bets. And when 553 00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 1: you were when you were crunching the numbers back then, 554 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,320 Speaker 1: when you were board out of your mind waiting for 555 00:26:12,359 --> 00:26:15,640 Speaker 1: the Brewers game to finish back back in the day, 556 00:26:15,680 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 1: how much time, how much time is invested on that? 557 00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: Is that also just pushing stuff into the computer and 558 00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:23,520 Speaker 1: that's all you need on the Some of these the 559 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:26,520 Speaker 1: exotic bets are insane when we get closer. I know, 560 00:26:26,560 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: the Super Bowl is a couple of weeks away. That's 561 00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:31,080 Speaker 1: where the things get really off the hook. But but 562 00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:34,680 Speaker 1: what what goes into making those things? Yeah, I mean 563 00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,479 Speaker 1: it's a lot of the same. I mean it's as 564 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 1: much art form as it is science. When you're talking 565 00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 1: about crafting individual prop markets, trying to build in so uh, 566 00:26:42,680 --> 00:26:45,199 Speaker 1: you know, the main baseline from a statistical model, but 567 00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 1: at the same time factoring in public perception. So there's 568 00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,280 Speaker 1: so many unique components before a number actually makes its 569 00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:54,120 Speaker 1: way to the betting board that I think the recreational 570 00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,359 Speaker 1: better or those folks near to the space but to 571 00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 1: be honest, be completely bored by. I mean, they just 572 00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 1: want to know how the sausage tastes. They don't necessarily 573 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,880 Speaker 1: want to know how the whole thing is made. And 574 00:27:03,119 --> 00:27:04,800 Speaker 1: I think a lot of that applies to some of 575 00:27:04,800 --> 00:27:07,800 Speaker 1: the more exotic markets that are out there. The great thing, though, 576 00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,040 Speaker 1: is that you're seeing progressive governing bodies across various states, 577 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:14,399 Speaker 1: allowing for oddsmakers to truly be created and create betting 578 00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,480 Speaker 1: markets that probably wouldn't have ever happened years ago. You 579 00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,119 Speaker 1: would have had to go to the off shore world, 580 00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:22,120 Speaker 1: and now you can go into various states have access 581 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 1: to them, and every state can be a little bit 582 00:27:23,880 --> 00:27:25,960 Speaker 1: different in terms of what they do allow on their 583 00:27:26,000 --> 00:27:29,400 Speaker 1: menus versus what they don't. But it's a great golden 584 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:32,320 Speaker 1: generation of bookmakers, and I think as the industry out 585 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:34,560 Speaker 1: the whole continues to expand, you're only going to be 586 00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 1: able to recruit more talent that's going to take things 587 00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:40,280 Speaker 1: well beyond the scope and comprehension of what I was 588 00:27:40,320 --> 00:27:42,119 Speaker 1: able to do when I stop my time behind the counter. 589 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:46,080 Speaker 1: All Right, So moving on to the actual games this weekend. 590 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:50,399 Speaker 1: We're talking before championship weekend in the NFL, and this 591 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,199 Speaker 1: obviously this podcast dropping early on a Friday, so some 592 00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: things might change. But the Bengals a pretty sizeable underdog 593 00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:03,160 Speaker 1: against can the City Todd and they just beat them 594 00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:05,879 Speaker 1: not that long ago in the regular season. What what 595 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:10,080 Speaker 1: is behind that number here that the Chiefs are getting 596 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,160 Speaker 1: a pretty good amount at home in this game? Yeah, 597 00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,120 Speaker 1: I mean, Kansas City in that previous matchup closed I'll 598 00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:18,120 Speaker 1: slightly more than a field goal favorite on the road. 599 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:19,920 Speaker 1: And to your point, the Bengals were able to win 600 00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:24,000 Speaker 1: that game outright thirty one. Of course, in that contest, though, 601 00:28:24,080 --> 00:28:27,200 Speaker 1: Kansas City built themselves a three score lead and then 602 00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:30,160 Speaker 1: just couldn't really get anything going on their limited possessions 603 00:28:30,160 --> 00:28:32,400 Speaker 1: in the second half. So it's one of those things 604 00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:34,160 Speaker 1: that I kind of say, buy or beware, don't put 605 00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:36,720 Speaker 1: too much stock on that particular game, because there were 606 00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:40,800 Speaker 1: some extenuating circumstances and some issues that kept the Chiefs 607 00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:43,640 Speaker 1: from being at full speed, especially along their offensive line. 608 00:28:44,000 --> 00:28:46,280 Speaker 1: When you look at the number here, Arrowhead can be 609 00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:48,480 Speaker 1: one of the more daunting places to play, and Joe 610 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 1: Burrow has passed every toust so far, at least through 611 00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:54,120 Speaker 1: the first couple of years of his young career. But 612 00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,200 Speaker 1: I think Kansas City will be given their undivided attention. 613 00:28:57,240 --> 00:28:59,360 Speaker 1: They know that Cincinnati got the best of them, and 614 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: when I look at his Bengals defense, I think it 615 00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,440 Speaker 1: leaves a lot to be desired. I'm not going to 616 00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:06,200 Speaker 1: fall a victim to the trap that because they were 617 00:29:06,240 --> 00:29:08,600 Speaker 1: able to keep the Raiders and Titans in check. It's 618 00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 1: necessarily going to translate here. What's also fascinating about this game. 619 00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:15,120 Speaker 1: You see the total open in the low fifty. It's 620 00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:17,520 Speaker 1: getting bat up. I don't have a strong opinion there, 621 00:29:17,560 --> 00:29:20,200 Speaker 1: but I think Kansas City will do their part as 622 00:29:20,200 --> 00:29:21,880 Speaker 1: far as putting points on the board. I'm just not 623 00:29:21,920 --> 00:29:23,840 Speaker 1: sure the Bengals have enough to try and keep up. 624 00:29:23,880 --> 00:29:26,200 Speaker 1: So I would definitely leaning towards Kansas City. Lay in 625 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,600 Speaker 1: the seven, and I think Kansas City goes over their 626 00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,040 Speaker 1: team total. As far as the full game over under, 627 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:33,640 Speaker 1: probably not a market that'd be running the bat well 628 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:36,040 Speaker 1: and the Yeah. But the the other thing too is 629 00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 1: the honey Badger. Right, we're still kind of waiting for 630 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,440 Speaker 1: the official word the safety. And he went out against 631 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,520 Speaker 1: Buffalo and it was like, oh my god, they the 632 00:29:42,600 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: Chief's defense was it was terrible, uh in that game. 633 00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,480 Speaker 1: So you have to factor that in, right, Todd, the 634 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,960 Speaker 1: you know, will will Tyron Matthew play in this game? 635 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:54,280 Speaker 1: How effective will he be if he does end up playing? Right? 636 00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,960 Speaker 1: Oh percent? I mean you saw the gaping hole that 637 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:00,400 Speaker 1: it left in that Kansas City defensive back field and 638 00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 1: the way that the Bills went out there and attacked 639 00:30:02,160 --> 00:30:04,720 Speaker 1: in space at key junctures late in the game, the 640 00:30:04,760 --> 00:30:07,880 Speaker 1: big pass play over the top to Gabriel Davis. Uh, 641 00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:10,200 Speaker 1: and there's no doubt if Honey Badger is in the mix, 642 00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:13,640 Speaker 1: it's a very different ballgame. Uh. The way things unfolded. 643 00:30:13,920 --> 00:30:15,800 Speaker 1: Also for the Chiefs, a lot of optimism that they 644 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,040 Speaker 1: should be able to get Rashot Fenton back in the fold. 645 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 1: He missed each of the last two playoff games dealing 646 00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,160 Speaker 1: with a back injury and one of their more underrated corners. 647 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:26,239 Speaker 1: I think this Kansas City defensive backfield was embarrassed. I mean, 648 00:30:26,280 --> 00:30:29,200 Speaker 1: we know Jamaar Chase put up ridiculous Madden type numbers 649 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 1: the first time around, so you'd have to think that 650 00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 1: Steve Spagnolo comes in with a different game plan, whether 651 00:30:34,080 --> 00:30:36,480 Speaker 1: it's bracketing Chase, you know, trying to take away the 652 00:30:36,520 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 1: middle of the field and limiting the damage that t 653 00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:41,040 Speaker 1: Higgins can do. But if Cincinnati is gonna have to 654 00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:42,560 Speaker 1: win this, they're not gonna be able to do so, 655 00:30:42,600 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: in my opinion, with their fastball. It's gonna have to 656 00:30:45,120 --> 00:30:47,800 Speaker 1: be the off speed stuff, the breaking ball, uh, and 657 00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,239 Speaker 1: everything else that Zack Taylor and company can kind of 658 00:30:50,240 --> 00:30:52,239 Speaker 1: scheme up because if the Chiefs were to go down 659 00:30:52,280 --> 00:30:54,360 Speaker 1: to the Bengals for the second time and right around 660 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:56,800 Speaker 1: a month and it was Jamaar Chase with two plus 661 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,600 Speaker 1: receiving yards for the second time as well in that span, 662 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 1: then you have some major fish to fry, and I 663 00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,920 Speaker 1: think it's a little bit more an indictment of your 664 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:08,200 Speaker 1: lack of preparation for one of the Bengals key weapons. Well, 665 00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:09,840 Speaker 1: and then the other game you have the Rams in 666 00:31:09,920 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 1: the fort. People have been making a big deal about 667 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:16,239 Speaker 1: the fact that the Niners have owned the Shanahan has 668 00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:20,600 Speaker 1: had mcveigh's number the one sixth straight. But as you know, Todd, 669 00:31:20,600 --> 00:31:22,760 Speaker 1: that doesn't guarantee anything, right. That just tells you what 670 00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:24,959 Speaker 1: has happened. It doesn't tell you what's going to happen 671 00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: in this game. How how do you see that's a 672 00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:30,280 Speaker 1: smaller number, much smaller number the Rams favorite obviously at 673 00:31:30,320 --> 00:31:33,000 Speaker 1: home against the Niners on Sunday. Yeah, And that's a 674 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:35,680 Speaker 1: great point too, because you know what happened in the past, 675 00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,600 Speaker 1: but history isn't always an indication of what you're going 676 00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,560 Speaker 1: to see in the future. So it's more important when 677 00:31:40,600 --> 00:31:43,560 Speaker 1: you break this game down to kind of unpack not 678 00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:46,680 Speaker 1: necessarily what happened, but how and why it went as 679 00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:50,040 Speaker 1: it did. And there's a reason that Kyle shanahan has 680 00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,360 Speaker 1: found a way to beat Sean McVeigh sixth straight time. 681 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,400 Speaker 1: Now we can see how we want. Four of those 682 00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,400 Speaker 1: six meetings weren't with Matthew Stafford, so those games probably 683 00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,240 Speaker 1: get a little bit of an asterisk by them. But 684 00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:01,760 Speaker 1: what you can or is that in the eyes of oddsmakers, 685 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 1: the forty Niners have been inferior in five out of 686 00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:07,240 Speaker 1: those six that they've won outright as an underdog. And 687 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:09,280 Speaker 1: while a lot of people fall victim to the narrative, 688 00:32:09,320 --> 00:32:10,960 Speaker 1: it's hard to be the team three times in the 689 00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,720 Speaker 1: same season. Hit Thory tells us that's not quite the case, 690 00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,960 Speaker 1: where teams that have swept the regular season series oftentimes 691 00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:21,040 Speaker 1: come back and win that third game in the trilogy installment. Now, 692 00:32:21,080 --> 00:32:24,240 Speaker 1: what is interesting about this. Normally, when teams play three times, 693 00:32:24,560 --> 00:32:26,560 Speaker 1: the team that won the previous two meetings sees that 694 00:32:26,640 --> 00:32:29,760 Speaker 1: third game at home. Uh, it's unusual that in the 695 00:32:29,760 --> 00:32:31,880 Speaker 1: case like we're seeing here, that the forty Niners or 696 00:32:31,920 --> 00:32:34,520 Speaker 1: a team working uphill. But we use the term at 697 00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,480 Speaker 1: home and on the road loosely as it pertains to 698 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:39,600 Speaker 1: how forty Niners fans will travel and most likely sell 699 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 1: out so Fi Stadium in this so when you dig 700 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 1: into this one, I think it's dog or pass. And 701 00:32:45,120 --> 00:32:46,880 Speaker 1: the reason I say that is because I think Kyle 702 00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:48,960 Speaker 1: Shanahan is shown in ability to make a judgments both 703 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,480 Speaker 1: on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. Jamiko 704 00:32:51,640 --> 00:32:54,640 Speaker 1: Ryan's put together an outstanding game planned last week against 705 00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:57,800 Speaker 1: Green Bay and fridgid temperatures and that defense battle because 706 00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:00,080 Speaker 1: the offense didn't give them any help. As we know, 707 00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:02,800 Speaker 1: they didn't score a single offensive touchdown in that contest. 708 00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:06,000 Speaker 1: And to go into a place, a hostile territory against 709 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:09,040 Speaker 1: a first ballot Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers speaks volumes 710 00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,320 Speaker 1: about being strong and all three facets of the game. 711 00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:13,600 Speaker 1: I think Kyle will find a way to get Brandon Ayou, 712 00:33:13,720 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 1: George Kittle, Deebo Samuel all involved. The Niners will be 713 00:33:17,200 --> 00:33:19,840 Speaker 1: able to generate pressure with their front four. And what 714 00:33:19,920 --> 00:33:22,040 Speaker 1: we can't ignore is in Week eighteen when the Niners 715 00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:23,960 Speaker 1: were able to battle back against the Rams, they did 716 00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:26,840 Speaker 1: that without their top cover corner and Immanuel Moseley. I 717 00:33:26,920 --> 00:33:28,520 Speaker 1: just get the feeling that this is a forty nine 718 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:30,600 Speaker 1: scene that's living a bit of a charmed life. I 719 00:33:30,600 --> 00:33:33,520 Speaker 1: think the number is a touch inflated when you factor 720 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:35,480 Speaker 1: all of that in along with home field advantage that 721 00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,560 Speaker 1: I don't think will be relevant here. I think the 722 00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:39,840 Speaker 1: forty niners are extremely live catching three and a half 723 00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,160 Speaker 1: and would not be stunned at all if they pull 724 00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:44,440 Speaker 1: off their third straight road ups out of this proceeding 725 00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 1: well tidd to someone who that is biased towards the Rams, 726 00:33:47,240 --> 00:33:48,600 Speaker 1: I don't like what you're saying right now, but I 727 00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:50,800 Speaker 1: don't disagree with it. I would definitely from a from 728 00:33:50,840 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 1: a gambling standpoint, I think these teams are pretty actually 729 00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,520 Speaker 1: pretty even. I think it will come down to a 730 00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,800 Speaker 1: like a fuel goal type game. I'd be surprised if 731 00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,080 Speaker 1: it's a blowout either way, mainly because of Jimmy Garoppolo, 732 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,240 Speaker 1: who I don't think so all that all that great, 733 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:06,800 Speaker 1: but I think he's gotten what three weeks almost without 734 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:08,960 Speaker 1: a touchdown now or something like that. But we will 735 00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:12,319 Speaker 1: find out. So honestly, you know, ben pretty wild when 736 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,640 Speaker 1: you dig into Jimmy Garoppolo in his career, he's had 737 00:34:14,680 --> 00:34:17,040 Speaker 1: eleven games where he hasn't thrown a single touchdown pass. 738 00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:19,880 Speaker 1: His win loss record in those games is nine and two. 739 00:34:20,239 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 1: He's three and oh in the playoffs where he doesn't 740 00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,080 Speaker 1: throw a single touchdown pass, and the common denominator for 741 00:34:25,120 --> 00:34:27,359 Speaker 1: the forty nine and the four playoff wins where he's 742 00:34:27,360 --> 00:34:30,040 Speaker 1: been under a center, he's thrown a grand total of 743 00:34:30,120 --> 00:34:32,760 Speaker 1: seventy one passes in those games, so less than twenty 744 00:34:32,800 --> 00:34:35,080 Speaker 1: a game. So there's no doubt the forty nine ers 745 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,000 Speaker 1: success is directly correlated to their ability to play defense, 746 00:34:38,360 --> 00:34:41,360 Speaker 1: create short field, and more importantly, run the ball. But 747 00:34:41,440 --> 00:34:44,319 Speaker 1: I'm not in that Jimmy Garoppolo detractor camp. I think 748 00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:46,120 Speaker 1: he can step up and raise his level of play 749 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,040 Speaker 1: when's needed. Uh, And we'll see if Sunday he's able 750 00:34:49,080 --> 00:34:50,839 Speaker 1: to do that and maybe come up with a big 751 00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,000 Speaker 1: thrower too, much like he did in the waning section. 752 00:34:53,239 --> 00:34:55,279 Speaker 1: He even get the forty niners at this point, but 753 00:34:55,400 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 1: that improbable come back Week eighteen against the same Rams. 754 00:34:58,160 --> 00:34:59,920 Speaker 1: Al Right, well, thank you man. I know you've been 755 00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:01,880 Speaker 1: so you've got like a million things. You're always juggling 756 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:05,680 Speaker 1: random different media gigs and all that, so I appreciate 757 00:35:05,719 --> 00:35:07,759 Speaker 1: you coming on. We'll have you on again, and uh, 758 00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,640 Speaker 1: and thank you. I appreciate it. Hey, no, thank you 759 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:12,360 Speaker 1: so much for having me on. Glad we had a 760 00:35:12,440 --> 00:35:14,680 Speaker 1: chance to finally catch up. Like you said, I know 761 00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 1: our past having crossed the ton during our time at 762 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:19,800 Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio, but hopefully we can change that going forward. 763 00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,879 Speaker 1: And most importantly, though Ben, best of welcome your picks 764 00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,400 Speaker 1: this weekend. My friend sad to see football season go 765 00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,880 Speaker 1: and the fact that we only have three meetingful games 766 00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,560 Speaker 1: left on the docket before they hand out that Lombardi 767 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:33,600 Speaker 1: Trophy has so far two weeks from late January