WEBVTT - Global IT Crash, RNC Recap, Netflix Earnings 0:00:02.920 --> 0:00:07.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:09.960 --> 0:00:13.840 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:17.280 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:20.239 with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 0:00:20.320 --> 0:00:23.360 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:28.240 So you have a global it collapse, right, just really 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:32.519 putting a CrowdStrike front and center in that spotlight. Now, 0:00:32.640 --> 0:00:36.199 CrowdStrike stock is only down by about nine percent, and 0:00:36.240 --> 0:00:37.760 I say that because it was down as much as 0:00:37.760 --> 0:00:41.840 twenty percent not too long ago. This is a dominant 0:00:41.880 --> 0:00:46.600 supplier of software that protects businesses from ransomware attacks, and 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.080 it was really thrust into the spotlight as it struggled 0:00:50.080 --> 0:00:54.040 to fix a faulty patch that led to cascading system 0:00:54.120 --> 0:00:58.600 wide failures that just paralyzed the operations of clients ranging 0:00:58.640 --> 0:01:01.840 from banks to global re tail giants to healthcare systems 0:01:02.200 --> 0:01:04.480 today and then for everyone else social media, which I'm 0:01:04.520 --> 0:01:08.319 sure was disastrous for influencers everywhere. Just a little history 0:01:08.360 --> 0:01:10.920 here on CrowdStrike. Guys, we're going to talk to mandyp 0:01:10.959 --> 0:01:12.880 saying more about what it means for the company, what 0:01:12.920 --> 0:01:15.080 it means for revenue and earnings in addition to what 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:16.800 it means for their customers and do they wind up 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:18.800 switching gears at any point. But here's some of the 0:01:18.800 --> 0:01:21.640 details and the history of CrowdStrike. It was founded by 0:01:21.720 --> 0:01:26.640 former executives of antivirus pioneer McAfee, and it launched back 0:01:26.680 --> 0:01:29.920 in twenty twelve, and now it has grown into the 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:33.960 leading maker of a relatively new type of security software 0:01:34.000 --> 0:01:38.160 that's considered among the best defenses against ransomware and other 0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:42.160 hacking threats. It controls about eighteen percent of the eight 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:44.840 point six billion dollar global market for so called quote 0:01:44.880 --> 0:01:49.280 modern endpoint protection software, just ahead of our rival Microsoft. 0:01:49.280 --> 0:01:53.040 And this is all according to market research firm IDC. 0:01:53.640 --> 0:01:56.960 So it is distinct from the older, more limited types 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:01.040 of security software. And traditional antivirus was pretty useful in 0:02:01.040 --> 0:02:04.080 those early days of computing in the Internet, and this 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:06.240 is basically where CrowdStrike is at. That's kind of your 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:09.640 history of how CrowdStrike got to be so popular and 0:02:09.680 --> 0:02:12.520 so big in this market. That stock still down by 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:15.639 about nine percent. Man Deep saying is joining us. He's 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.560 much more details than I do on this. Bloomberg Intelligence 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:23.160 senior technology industry analyst Mandy I guess my question is 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:25.320 is CrowdStrike going to lose a bowload of customers? 0:02:26.840 --> 0:02:29.679 I don't think so. I think right now we are 0:02:29.760 --> 0:02:34.040 just learning that. Clearly this was something they shipped last night. 0:02:34.360 --> 0:02:37.040 It was an outage because of the changes they made 0:02:37.040 --> 0:02:40.440 to their software. So the good thing is it wasn't 0:02:40.440 --> 0:02:42.200 a breach. I mean, the last thing you want is 0:02:42.200 --> 0:02:44.920 a cybersecurity company getting breached themselves. 0:02:44.960 --> 0:02:45.880 So that's not the. 0:02:45.919 --> 0:02:48.680 Case, right, So plus time, yes, yeah. 0:02:48.800 --> 0:02:51.440 Yeah, But at the same time, the fact that this 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:54.720 happened at the scale at which it did, and look, 0:02:54.800 --> 0:02:58.960 there will be liabilities. I mean, there will be fines. 0:02:59.680 --> 0:03:04.760 I think that I've heard GDPR findes because the outage 0:03:04.800 --> 0:03:08.800 was pretty big, there was lost business. So clearly the 0:03:08.840 --> 0:03:11.880 fallout from this would be, you know, it will impact 0:03:11.880 --> 0:03:14.600 their free cash flow for this year and also delay 0:03:14.639 --> 0:03:19.040 their deals. I mean, look, they are two weeks away 0:03:19.080 --> 0:03:22.120 from closing this quarter. A lot of these deals are 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:24.639 signed at the very end of the quarter. I bet 0:03:24.720 --> 0:03:27.239 you they're not happening now given the outage. 0:03:27.680 --> 0:03:30.600 So if I'm a customer, so I'm Delta, Yeah, what 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:32.800 do I say to CrowdStrike if I can't operate and 0:03:32.840 --> 0:03:34.800 I lose money for two days? Or I have to 0:03:34.800 --> 0:03:37.600 shell out cash to help customers who are really mad 0:03:37.600 --> 0:03:37.840 at me. 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.080 Yeah, so that's where you know. 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:41.360 That's where the finds are going to come in. 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:44.800 And look, Microsoft also is involved here, so it's not 0:03:45.080 --> 0:03:48.680 just Crowdstrike's fault. The fact that this happened at the 0:03:48.680 --> 0:03:52.920 Windows operating system level, you have to ask yourself, could 0:03:52.920 --> 0:03:56.560 Microsoft has done something here in terms of preventing that 0:03:56.720 --> 0:03:59.600 sort of a change where the system would not book? 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:03.320 I mean, Microsoft is the operating system layer, and anytime 0:04:03.560 --> 0:04:07.000 you change things at the operating system layer, it's like 0:04:07.280 --> 0:04:10.480 all your critical systems will be down. So the fact that, 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:13.640 and that's the broader point here is if you have 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:16.919 an agent based solution where you're installing something at the 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:20.680 operating system layer, who's liable for that? Is it the 0:04:20.720 --> 0:04:23.200 operating system vendor or is it the software vendor? And 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.840 that's where I think, I mean, everyone is saying, oh, 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:30.440 they rolled back the changes, the outage is over, there 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:32.840 will be a fallout in terms of who is paying 0:04:33.320 --> 0:04:37.000 the fines, and more than the fines for the lost business, 0:04:37.240 --> 0:04:40.320 there's somebody who is liable here, and it's CrowdStrike and 0:04:40.440 --> 0:04:41.520 probably Microsoft. 0:04:41.839 --> 0:04:44.000 So can you just explain it done that downy for me. 0:04:44.040 --> 0:04:46.640 Even more so, CrowdStrike says, hey, guys, I got a 0:04:46.680 --> 0:04:49.599 software updated. Microsoft's like cool, and then they press go 0:04:50.480 --> 0:04:52.479 what should they have done instead? 0:04:52.920 --> 0:04:55.600 I mean, this should have been tested one hundred times 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:57.760 before you roll something like that out. 0:04:58.040 --> 0:05:00.640 Then they test it, they find the bugs, they fix it. 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:05.320 There's a whole software industry just for testing changes. That's 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:09.360 why cloud software it's great because you deploy it for 0:05:09.440 --> 0:05:11.920 all your customers with the click off a button. But 0:05:12.000 --> 0:05:14.520 that's your risk. I mean, when people used to do 0:05:14.600 --> 0:05:16.960 things in the on prem world, you had to ship 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:21.280 a disk, the disc had to be installed it and look, 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:23.760 not everyone would have done it overnight. In this case, 0:05:23.920 --> 0:05:26.760 all the customers got the change overnight and they were 0:05:26.760 --> 0:05:30.080 affected overnight. And some of them are running all machines. 0:05:30.400 --> 0:05:33.040 So even though crowd strikes says that they rolled back 0:05:33.080 --> 0:05:36.200 the update and it's going to automatically fix things, well, 0:05:36.279 --> 0:05:40.119 some people are running Windows two thousand, so it doesn't 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:43.279 roll back that way because those people have to take 0:05:43.520 --> 0:05:46.520 some different steps compared to the ones that are running 0:05:46.560 --> 0:05:49.000 the latest version of Windows where it can be rolled 0:05:49.040 --> 0:05:49.640 back easily. 0:05:50.080 --> 0:05:50.200 Well. 0:05:50.279 --> 0:05:53.000 Really caught my eye is there is report that someone 0:05:53.080 --> 0:05:56.320 has issued a paper ticket in handwriting to get on 0:05:56.360 --> 0:06:00.240 a plane. I was like, oh, this is real now to. 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:02.760 Get rid of systems are down. 0:06:03.040 --> 0:06:05.640 Oh man, So I know you're not going to give 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:08.279 stock prices, but just looking at CrowdStrike down nine percent, 0:06:08.279 --> 0:06:11.320 it was down twenty percent. What kind of hit to 0:06:11.400 --> 0:06:13.640 the stock price is reasonable that we should really be 0:06:13.680 --> 0:06:14.359 looking at. 0:06:14.560 --> 0:06:18.159 I mean, look, we don't know the extent of liability 0:06:18.200 --> 0:06:21.160 they have in this case. Depending on that, I think 0:06:21.240 --> 0:06:24.400 fifteen percent is warranted. And some of their competitors are 0:06:24.440 --> 0:06:29.520 up Sentinel one Palo Alto Networks, So endpoint security is 0:06:29.680 --> 0:06:34.400 primarily four vendors. CrowdStrike is the leading one Sentinel Palo Alto. 0:06:34.440 --> 0:06:37.559 And there's a company, vis Security, that Google is looking 0:06:37.600 --> 0:06:41.039 to buy. There were rumors about that last week. Well 0:06:41.080 --> 0:06:44.640 guess what that validates? Why Google, a cloud player, is 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:48.560 looking to buy a cybersecurity provider. So clearly, given it's 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:53.719 a four kind of company race here, CrowdStrike fallout means 0:06:53.760 --> 0:06:55.200 the others stand to benefit here. 0:06:55.960 --> 0:06:57.520 What else are you looking at right now? I mean, 0:06:57.560 --> 0:06:59.599 I know this occupied most of your morning, but now 0:06:59.600 --> 0:07:03.240 we seem to be resuming somewhat as is operations with 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.200 some question marks, But what else is on your mind 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:07.480 right now? After this week? Or you've seen what I 0:07:07.480 --> 0:07:10.160 think the Nasdaq, the S and P, and the Nasdaq 0:07:10.200 --> 0:07:13.640 one hundred seeing its worst week since April? What do 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:13.960 you think? 0:07:14.120 --> 0:07:16.760 I mean? Look, we got the print from Netflix last 0:07:16.840 --> 0:07:21.440 night at TSMC ASML, they all reported results and AI 0:07:21.600 --> 0:07:25.400 spends still continues to be robust. So with Google reporting 0:07:25.480 --> 0:07:29.040 next week, I think you may see a pretty strong 0:07:29.120 --> 0:07:31.680 print going by what happened this week, even though the 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:35.880 market was down and everyone is raising concerns around valuation 0:07:36.280 --> 0:07:39.760 and just you know, the market risk. But I mean 0:07:39.880 --> 0:07:43.080 AI spend is still what's driving the market, and you 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:45.080 want to see how Google does next week. 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.600 When you say the AI spend part, how do we 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:51.440 know about the monetization of it on the end user? 0:07:51.480 --> 0:07:55.280 Because that's going to be where the investment continues, right, 0:07:55.320 --> 0:07:57.400 Like you're going to invest a bowtload of money now, great, 0:07:57.640 --> 0:07:59.680 but then you actually have to make money off of 0:07:59.720 --> 0:08:03.040 it to then keep spending money on it. When does 0:08:03.080 --> 0:08:04.160 that start to come into play? 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:08.400 Well, so I think you will see that in Google's 0:08:08.480 --> 0:08:11.520 result as well. They have launched their Gemini offering that's 0:08:11.560 --> 0:08:15.360 part of their Google One bundle, Microsoft has a GitHub copilot. 0:08:15.880 --> 0:08:20.040 They all run cloud businesses where they are deploying these workloads, 0:08:20.080 --> 0:08:23.360 the AI workloads. And look, the biggest driver of this 0:08:23.920 --> 0:08:27.080 is how big is the GPT five and GPT six 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:29.640 going to be. If the models that are being trained 0:08:29.960 --> 0:08:33.160 are going to be much larger, ten twenty times larger, 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:36.480 you need more compute. And if the companies are spending 0:08:36.480 --> 0:08:40.360 the capex to train these models, that means they are 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.360 in it. I mean, these companies are the biggest spenders 0:08:43.360 --> 0:08:47.319 on capex, Your Microsoft, Google, Amazon. If they continue that path, 0:08:47.720 --> 0:08:50.920 they're telling you that we believe in it. And if 0:08:51.600 --> 0:08:54.960 one of these vendors blinks first, that's the big risk. 0:08:55.240 --> 0:08:59.800 Who says, Okay, I'm pausing spending on training cloud models 0:08:59.840 --> 0:09:02.000 now because we don't see the ROI we haven't seen 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:02.440 that yet. 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:04.199 Everyone is going big. 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:07.040 And then to your point, like there is a no 0:09:07.160 --> 0:09:10.480 first mover advantage to not doing that right, Like Google's 0:09:10.480 --> 0:09:12.240 not gonna want to do it first, Amazon not gonna 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:14.040 want to do it first, Like who does that first? 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.240 And when that happens, So is there a possibility that 0:09:16.240 --> 0:09:18.760 they'll just keep spending because of that? 0:09:18.920 --> 0:09:22.160 Even if like there is fear pressure because and right 0:09:22.200 --> 0:09:25.240 now the GPUs are still supply constraints. So nobody wants 0:09:25.240 --> 0:09:27.640 to say, oh, I'm not raising my capex and I 0:09:27.640 --> 0:09:30.480 have enough of these GPUs because there are still a 0:09:30.559 --> 0:09:33.760 hot commodity. Well, time will tell, if you know, the 0:09:33.920 --> 0:09:38.920 market kind of stabilizes, their the supply demand equation gets better, 0:09:39.000 --> 0:09:42.400 and that's when you will see market reaction. But until 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:45.520 that time, what TSMC told us, yeah, is they're still 0:09:45.559 --> 0:09:48.920 supply constrained. They have more demand to make those leading 0:09:48.920 --> 0:09:51.360 at chips, and so that's why I think the ai 0:09:51.480 --> 0:09:52.359 story continues. 0:09:52.679 --> 0:09:55.760 Yeah. They said also that that supply and demand imbalance 0:09:55.880 --> 0:09:58.160 is going to last what until twenty twenty six. 0:09:58.080 --> 0:10:03.040 Yes, yeah, well, I mean and couple that with the 0:10:03.080 --> 0:10:06.320 geopolitical risk. You know what's going on with the election situation, 0:10:06.760 --> 0:10:11.160 the former Trump, former President Trump saying he doesn't believe 0:10:11.280 --> 0:10:15.000 in Taiwan. So that's a chill point. If something happens 0:10:15.000 --> 0:10:19.520 to Taiwan and the relationships changes, then TSMC is not 0:10:19.600 --> 0:10:23.720 spending capex on expanding their capacity. Well, everyone wants TSMC 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:26.800 to expand capacity, so that's a big risk in itself. 0:10:26.840 --> 0:10:31.040 It's TSMC is not expanding capacity of their notes amazing. 0:10:31.120 --> 0:10:33.520 You look really excited, by the way. I definitely heard 0:10:33.520 --> 0:10:35.240 Man Deep tag about this it thing and he was 0:10:35.240 --> 0:10:38.000 a little giddy. There's like something really interesting going on here. Mandy, 0:10:38.040 --> 0:10:39.840 thanks a lot, really appreciate it. Thanks for the hustle. 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:45.520 Man Deep saying, Bloomberg Intelligence senior technology industry analyst, amazing stuff. 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:47.640 Cannot wait for Google next week. That's going to be 0:10:47.679 --> 0:10:48.520 really great as well. 0:10:50.160 --> 0:10:54.079 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:57.680 weekdays at ten am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 0:10:57.679 --> 0:11:00.520 Auto with the Bloomberg Business You can all so listen 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.680 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 0:11:04.040 --> 0:11:07.079 Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:11:08.040 --> 0:11:11.959 Well, Alex Deal. Paulsweenis off today. This is Bloomberg Intelligence Radio. 0:11:12.000 --> 0:11:14.040 We bring you all the top news in business, finance, 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:17.120 economics through our lens of our Bloomberg Intelligence analysts. They 0:11:17.200 --> 0:11:21.080 covered two thousand companies and one hundred and thirty industries worldwide. 0:11:21.200 --> 0:11:23.560 The next top story of the morning, aside from CrowdStrike 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:25.600 and what's happening there, is what's happening in DC with 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:29.000 President Biden. So the reports earlier from NBC said that 0:11:29.040 --> 0:11:32.320 Biden's family is starting to discuss his exit plan from 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:34.959 the race. Shortly after that, the White House came out 0:11:35.000 --> 0:11:37.760 and said that that NBC report was wrong, but the 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:41.120 clock is still ticking towards the DNC. Oh and by 0:11:41.120 --> 0:11:43.080 the way, the RNC just wrapped up last night with 0:11:43.080 --> 0:11:46.560 a ninety three minute speech from former President Donald Trump. 0:11:46.640 --> 0:11:50.400 Let's go to Nathan Dean. He's Bloomberg Intelligence, a senior. 0:11:50.559 --> 0:11:53.560 Let me get your title right, senior policy analyst joining 0:11:53.640 --> 0:11:55.760 us from there. Hey, Nathan, there's a lot to kind 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.880 of get through right now. But before we kiss everything 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:00.960 off here, let's just go to what's happening in DC 0:12:01.120 --> 0:12:03.880 and the White House. What is your take on the 0:12:03.920 --> 0:12:04.800 Biden campaign? 0:12:05.800 --> 0:12:08.960 So, you know, it really sounds like the pressure. I mean, look, 0:12:09.120 --> 0:12:10.400 I don't think he needs to be me to know 0:12:10.440 --> 0:12:11.800 that the pressure is on the White House right now 0:12:11.840 --> 0:12:15.199 and specifically on President of Biden to you know, make 0:12:15.240 --> 0:12:17.400 the decision to step aside. You know, we've seen reporting 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.240 from Bloomberg News all throughout the week that not only 0:12:20.320 --> 0:12:23.320 do your you know, his general allies in Congress, but 0:12:23.360 --> 0:12:26.280 also you know, statements from you know, or the lack 0:12:26.320 --> 0:12:28.800 of statements from President Obama for example. But what we 0:12:28.800 --> 0:12:31.320 should note is the prediction right markets as of right 0:12:31.400 --> 0:12:33.280 now are fifty seven to twenty one in terms of 0:12:33.320 --> 0:12:36.199 Kamala Harris. Look again, these are prediction markets. To take 0:12:36.240 --> 0:12:38.160 it if you will. But we've put out a whole 0:12:38.160 --> 0:12:42.240 host of notes on the terminal this morning on healthcare, taxes, banks, evs, 0:12:42.280 --> 0:12:44.680 and TMTs, And the crust of the matter is is 0:12:44.679 --> 0:12:46.800 that if President Biden were to drop out of the 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:49.800 race this weekend, and similarly, like Kamala Harris comes in 0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:52.880 the vice president to replace him, most of the policies 0:12:52.920 --> 0:12:55.120 are a status quo. There's really not a lot of 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:57.520 difference between Kamala Harris and Joe Biden when it comes 0:12:57.520 --> 0:13:00.440 to policies. And so just in terms of trying to 0:13:00.440 --> 0:13:02.880 figure out the certainty in which sectors are being impacted, 0:13:03.080 --> 0:13:05.200 I think it just be a continuation of the same factor. 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:08.320 So based on that, then what would be the big 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:10.679 changes with President Trump? I mean, ninety three minutes last 0:13:10.720 --> 0:13:14.559 night we learned a ton tariffs and taxes. 0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.120 Is that what we're looking at exactly? So I would 0:13:17.160 --> 0:13:19.360 say tariffs and taxes are the top two. In fact, 0:13:19.400 --> 0:13:22.160 our chief equity strategist Gina Martin Adams put out a 0:13:22.200 --> 0:13:25.760 note specifically about that this morning, talking about what does 0:13:25.760 --> 0:13:27.960 that mean for markets in terms of taxes. If you 0:13:28.040 --> 0:13:30.000 go back to the twenty seventeen tax cuts and you 0:13:30.040 --> 0:13:31.959 do something very similar to that, you get a slight 0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:34.679 tailwind pushing earnings a little bit better in that if 0:13:34.720 --> 0:13:37.080 you get the tariffs, well, there's a lot of uncertainty there. 0:13:37.200 --> 0:13:39.040 So but I would say in terms of people thinking 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.920 about how President Trump would implement this, it's almost short 0:13:41.960 --> 0:13:44.640 term versus long term. Short term tariffs. The power of 0:13:44.640 --> 0:13:46.280 the presidency is a lot more powerful when it comes 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.240 to trade in tariffs. So look for that to be 0:13:48.280 --> 0:13:50.320 one of the first actions that the president would do 0:13:50.440 --> 0:13:52.480 if he were to win in say the first quarter 0:13:52.520 --> 0:13:55.280 of next year. The tax reform debate, however, goes through 0:13:55.320 --> 0:13:59.240 twenty twenty five. Remember that's when the individual tax cuts expire. 0:13:59.559 --> 0:14:01.760 So we have to see a the makeup of Congress, 0:14:01.880 --> 0:14:04.120 and b we're going to see a lot of debate 0:14:04.160 --> 0:14:06.480 over what the tax issue is. So if you're trying 0:14:06.480 --> 0:14:09.400 to model this out from a you know, timing perspective, 0:14:09.720 --> 0:14:11.880 trade and tariff's number one tax is number two. 0:14:12.240 --> 0:14:14.560 Yeah, and also, you know what it actually does to 0:14:14.600 --> 0:14:17.480 the equity market is a whole different story. Can you 0:14:17.520 --> 0:14:19.600 talk to me a little bit about energy policies. So 0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.200 clearly it's a drill baby drill situation for President Trump. 0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:25.400 On the flip side, though, the more you drill baby drill, 0:14:25.440 --> 0:14:27.960 the lower oil prices can go, which is not always 0:14:28.000 --> 0:14:32.840 happiness for oil companies and built drill baby drill. 0:14:33.080 --> 0:14:34.280 Yeah, you know, if funny enough. 0:14:34.320 --> 0:14:35.680 I was on a chat last night with some of 0:14:35.680 --> 0:14:38.360 our energy analysts when he mentioned drill BA to b drill, 0:14:38.640 --> 0:14:40.440 and a lot of the feedback I got from Bi's 0:14:40.520 --> 0:14:43.000 energy team was, look, there's a lot of policy things 0:14:43.000 --> 0:14:45.240 that President Biden can do, but also just remember the 0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:48.200 markets are moving in a certain way. Solar and win 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.560 and renewable technology is continuing to get cheaper, and so 0:14:51.800 --> 0:14:53.600 you know, there are policies that we'll see on the 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:56.400 energy side that certainly could make it easier for drill 0:14:56.200 --> 0:14:57.640 built drill. 0:14:57.840 --> 0:14:59.880 I know it's tough, right, it's hard. 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.120 You know, there's certainly going to be policies to coming 0:15:02.120 --> 0:15:04.560 from the White House. But also remember is this policy 0:15:04.600 --> 0:15:06.880 a regulation or is it an executive order or is 0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:10.000 it legislation? And so I think that even though you know, 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:12.360 I'm not an energy analyst, but at least, you know 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:14.560 our group chat last night, a lot of our energy 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.840 analysts think that solar renewables are here to stay. 0:15:17.200 --> 0:15:21.400 What about EV's Again the contradiction of Elon Musk contributing 0:15:21.400 --> 0:15:24.160 heavily to a super pac that's going to support Donald Trump. 0:15:24.280 --> 0:15:26.520 But then yesterday it seemed like when he was speaking, 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:28.560 he was like, subsidies for EV's bye bye. 0:15:28.960 --> 0:15:29.200 Yeah. 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.440 You know, I got that question from a client just 0:15:31.480 --> 0:15:33.600 this morning. You know, you know, President Trump last night 0:15:33.680 --> 0:15:37.200 essentially in a paraphrasing here said I dislike electric vehicles, 0:15:37.240 --> 0:15:38.720 and you know, we're going to do away with the 0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:42.360 electric vehicle tax credit that's part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Now, 0:15:42.480 --> 0:15:44.640 they could certainly do this as part of that tax 0:15:44.680 --> 0:15:47.440 reform debate that I mentioned to, and President Trump could 0:15:47.480 --> 0:15:50.720 use executive orders to adjust that EV mandate if he 0:15:50.760 --> 0:15:53.000 so chooses. But then he got Elon Musk saying I'm 0:15:53.000 --> 0:15:54.680 going to spend forty five million dollars a month to 0:15:54.760 --> 0:15:57.640 support President Trump in his presidency. So I think what 0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:59.880 I would happen here, what the EV tax credit is 0:16:00.040 --> 0:16:01.920 probably this is not going to be a day one issue. 0:16:02.000 --> 0:16:04.360 If President Trump were to win, let the issue fester 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:06.320 for a little bit. Let's see if Elon Musk tries 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:08.120 to get into the White House and starts whispering the 0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:10.240 President's ear, and then we'll see in maybe in the 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:11.400 second quarter, how. 0:16:11.320 --> 0:16:13.720 Ultimately they want to move forward with this. So it's 0:16:13.720 --> 0:16:14.720 certainly keep in mind. 0:16:14.840 --> 0:16:17.560 But also I think the ev automakers also are just 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:19.520 saying there's a lot of demand here, whether that tax 0:16:19.600 --> 0:16:21.120 credits with us or not, right, and. 0:16:21.080 --> 0:16:24.040 Really we're still revolving around tariffs and taxes, So there 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.080 is that the priority all right here, Nathan, we really 0:16:26.080 --> 0:16:29.320 appreciate it. Nathan Dean joins us from Bloomberg Intelligence, a 0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:32.080 senior policy analysts. Let's go right to Milwaukee here with 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:35.400 Emory Hordern, a chief political correspondent to anchor of a 0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:40.240 Bloomberg surveillance Henry. Last night I felt like a very 0:16:40.360 --> 0:16:44.360 historic event. I mean, ninety three minute speech, sweeping speech. 0:16:44.960 --> 0:16:47.000 Can you just give me some on the ground color 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.840 as to what it's like having been there and being 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:50.720 in Milwaukee. 0:16:53.320 --> 0:16:55.520 It was a ninety three minute speech. A lot of 0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:57.840 attendees were feeling it at some point in the end. 0:16:57.880 --> 0:16:59.320 Some of them may want to beat the traffic, but 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:00.680 they were leaving towards the end. 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:03.880 There. It was really the beginning part of the speech. 0:17:03.960 --> 0:17:08.560 That you felt it in the room, very silent, very somber. 0:17:09.040 --> 0:17:13.159 Foreign President United States explaining in detail what he experienced 0:17:13.200 --> 0:17:14.560 Saturday evening. 0:17:14.520 --> 0:17:17.040 When there was attempt on his life, and he. 0:17:17.000 --> 0:17:19.760 Said, it's too painful to talk about, so he's never 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:21.760 going to talk about this again. And he was saying 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:25.480 how he's thanks to God that he's still alive, and 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:28.480 that was really the tone he was trying to set. 0:17:28.880 --> 0:17:31.359 And then he talked about uniting the country, not the 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:34.119 Republican Party, uniting the country. He said, what is the 0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:36.480 point of having half the country? 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:38.479 I want a victory of the entire country. 0:17:38.520 --> 0:17:41.840 But then the speech went on, you heard similar tropes 0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:44.480 that you'd hear from a Trump rally, and he veered 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:49.000 off script a number of times, which basically meandered in 0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:50.560 and out, and which is why we ended up with 0:17:50.600 --> 0:17:53.160 a ninety three minute speech. Not sure how this would 0:17:53.240 --> 0:17:55.840 land exactly with the individuals back home. If it's slice 0:17:55.840 --> 0:17:57.880 and dice, obviously people are going to want to hear 0:17:57.920 --> 0:18:01.560 about that assassination attempt and potentially see a different side 0:18:01.640 --> 0:18:05.240 of the former president, even though he talked about a 0:18:05.280 --> 0:18:10.280 lot of things that categorically will were false and similar 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:10.679 to some of the. 0:18:10.720 --> 0:18:14.680 Rhetoric that unnerves some independence. But in the room it 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:16.679 was electric. These individuals. 0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:19.200 There are ones that already are motivated to go out 0:18:19.200 --> 0:18:22.320 and vote for Trump, but these individuals were so excited 0:18:22.400 --> 0:18:25.560 to be there. And we should note leading up to 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:31.119 it was a really a event, a machismo event. You 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:34.760 had Hull Colgan come out ripping his shirt open, calling 0:18:34.800 --> 0:18:37.320 Trump his hero, and you also had Kid Rock. It 0:18:37.440 --> 0:18:40.960 was the nostalgia of the eighties and the nineties really 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:44.479 leading up to the former president to make this historic 0:18:44.520 --> 0:18:47.919 speech third third time he has been nominated by this 0:18:47.960 --> 0:18:49.120 Republican Party. 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:51.000 Whole Colgan, I feel like at the end of the 0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:53.240 shirt ripping it kind of got caught there. But your 0:18:53.280 --> 0:18:57.159 point is well taken in terms of the unity theme. 0:18:58.119 --> 0:18:59.920 I appreciate that the beginning of the speech was very 0:19:00.080 --> 0:19:03.760 much focused on that. How did that evolve throughout those 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:04.680 ninety three minutes? 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.560 Well went back to the same president Chump that we 0:19:09.720 --> 0:19:13.640 know and we see and hear on in campaign rallies. 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:16.600 He mentioned Biden only once. He did want to talk 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:20.359 about the current administration. Potentially that was strategic because of 0:19:20.359 --> 0:19:23.000 course those news as you were just discussing that President 0:19:23.000 --> 0:19:27.000 Biden might step aside and his family is discussing this 0:19:27.040 --> 0:19:29.840 with him, what an exit plan could look like. According 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:31.880 to NBC News, we do see a lot of pressure 0:19:31.880 --> 0:19:34.080 mounching on the sitting president going into the weekend. 0:19:34.280 --> 0:19:35.639 So he said the current administration. 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:37.840 He's mentioned Biden's names once and said, oops, I'm not 0:19:37.840 --> 0:19:39.760