WEBVTT - Have We Finally Turned a Corner? 

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Mernon Talks Money Market Wrap, where we

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<v Speaker 2>talk about the biggest moves in the markets this week

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<v Speaker 2>and wat's driving them. I'm joined Steppeck, Senior report and

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<v Speaker 2>author of the Money Distilled newsletter. And unbelievably Marnon is

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<v Speaker 2>still off on holiday, so we managed to twist Marcus

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<v Speaker 2>Ashworth's arm to come back. Marcus is a Bloomberg opinion

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<v Speaker 2>column is a very good friend of the show and

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<v Speaker 2>all doing Marcus guru, So welcome back, Marcus, Thank you

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<v Speaker 2>for doing it.

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<v Speaker 1>Again, pleasure. What's the holiday?

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<v Speaker 2>Exactly exactly right? So this week this week today, today

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<v Speaker 2>is Thursday, and UK GDP figures have just come out

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<v Speaker 2>and they were surprisingly good.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, our quan statistic stuck out for me was that

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<v Speaker 1>on a per capita as in per head basis, since

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<v Speaker 1>Labor's been in power, we are all richer by the

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<v Speaker 1>tune of zero point seven percent. And don't we just

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<v Speaker 1>feel it time, We just feel it. So that's not

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<v Speaker 1>a lot, but it's a lot better than it could

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<v Speaker 1>have been. And perhaps what we may feel it was

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<v Speaker 1>is so the only thing I was says is that

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<v Speaker 1>all these backward data, which GDP by definition is and

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<v Speaker 1>oneted subject to heavier revision, is not what's going to

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<v Speaker 1>happen as we head up to the long, very very

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<v Speaker 1>unpleasant road up to the budget probably the end of

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<v Speaker 1>October and November. But I do think there was more

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<v Speaker 1>momentum in the economy than we may have feared. However,

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at the data of the zero point

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<v Speaker 1>three rise in quarter two, zero point twenty seven, of

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<v Speaker 1>it is the government, which was all about our budget

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<v Speaker 1>last year, and the punk priming which is coming through

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<v Speaker 1>is that it is starting to work. That's the good news.

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<v Speaker 1>The bad news is that consumption and investment in the

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<v Speaker 1>private sector is flatlining and down. So in that sense,

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<v Speaker 1>we have in this tectonic shift where more money has

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<v Speaker 1>been thrown at the public sector at the cost of

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<v Speaker 1>taxpayers and the private sector. I don't think that's very

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<v Speaker 1>healthy long term, but it just leads to the point

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<v Speaker 1>that you know, growth is going to stay above one

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<v Speaker 1>percent just probably for the rest of this year. We

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<v Speaker 1>will nominally probably be the second best performing nation in

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<v Speaker 1>the G seven after the States, but by a fraction

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<v Speaker 1>and look at it could have even been zero point

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<v Speaker 1>four this last quarter. Quarter two, So you know, after

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<v Speaker 1>zero point seven quarter one, you know that the start

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<v Speaker 1>of twenty twenty five has been better than people expected.

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<v Speaker 1>The tariff thing was initial boosts and inventory builds and

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<v Speaker 1>things like that. That's carried through into quarter two. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not all bad news. We should probably be a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit more optimistic. The only thing I would say from

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<v Speaker 1>that is the Bank of England probably should look through

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<v Speaker 1>these numbers and not get worried about the economy. Maybe,

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<v Speaker 1>but equally it's all about the labor market and it's

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<v Speaker 1>all about inflation, and those things are saiparated. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think this GDP data alters of you that it's a

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<v Speaker 1>fifty to fifty coin toss whether they cut again in

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<v Speaker 1>November to three and three quarters. But we will see that.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they've got plenty of time to do that,

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<v Speaker 1>So I don't think this number changes the dial for

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<v Speaker 1>the Bank of England.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean it's interesting. One thing that I keep

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<v Speaker 2>heeding about the hostsold seed is the hostal balances are

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<v Speaker 2>pretty healthy, and the question is why is the savingsury.

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<v Speaker 2>It's all high To me, thus fairly obvious reasons for

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<v Speaker 2>that if we're all paranoid about how much money is

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<v Speaker 2>going to get taken out of our pensions on whatever

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<v Speaker 2>come the next budget, and that's going to make people

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<v Speaker 2>see if harder. But is that a compositionion effect here?

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<v Speaker 2>What is the food?

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<v Speaker 1>Food? I think is what people see the most quickly,

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<v Speaker 1>and that they change the consumer sentiment sort of because

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<v Speaker 1>of that. So you know, we've had pretty low food

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<v Speaker 1>price up to failurey seeing that they've definitely bounced back,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's quite a noticeable effect on people. I think

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<v Speaker 1>underlying exactly what you're saying is just that the sort

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<v Speaker 1>of negative meat and people like you and I, which

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<v Speaker 1>is yes, exactly, it's causing people to be perhaps much

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<v Speaker 1>more reticent and therefore that's all the savings break and

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<v Speaker 1>then you get the paradox of thrift where it just

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<v Speaker 1>is people saved money. It just does not the economy,

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<v Speaker 1>and we will get misery and terror.

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<v Speaker 2>I was fining the paradox are thrift a little bit.

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<v Speaker 2>It's a fair point in the short term, but it's

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<v Speaker 2>this whole idea that saving is, you know, I mean

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<v Speaker 2>we can have the the economy also needs capital and

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<v Speaker 2>needs saving that investment.

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<v Speaker 1>That's where perhaps breakdown. But then we can all go

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<v Speaker 1>into the laughter curve and real time they had experiences

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<v Speaker 1>of how the works and why we're spending less.

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<v Speaker 2>Anyway, the other thing that came out to do was

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<v Speaker 2>the latest REX survey. I don't know how much of

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<v Speaker 2>attention you pay the REX Survey the canal. This is

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<v Speaker 2>where they ask all the estate agents and the surveyors

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<v Speaker 2>what they think of what's going on in the housing market.

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<v Speaker 2>Ain't there. But one thing that surprised me slightly is

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<v Speaker 2>they go a little bit gloomier this month and they

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<v Speaker 2>kind of the bits and pieces of anecdotal data at

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<v Speaker 2>the end were all about, oh, you know, yeah, the

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<v Speaker 2>cells have to be very realistic on price, and somebody

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<v Speaker 2>was saying this it was very funly a buyer's market.

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<v Speaker 2>Someone was even saying prices have probablydropped about ten percent

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<v Speaker 2>in the last twelve months. And I was quite surprised

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<v Speaker 2>by just how how gloomy they were. And I also

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<v Speaker 2>noticed that repossessions of load they're still very low, in

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<v Speaker 2>the second quarter ticked up and they're now on a

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<v Speaker 2>kind of rising trajectory there still likes it from a

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<v Speaker 2>very very low base, we're only back to where we

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<v Speaker 2>were on a monthly.

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<v Speaker 1>On that because it's just infintestical compared to what it

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<v Speaker 1>perhaps was in the light I es or something. But

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<v Speaker 1>I definitely feel that, for instance, the lost interest right

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<v Speaker 1>cuff of man coming and is almost as it didn't

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<v Speaker 1>happen because it was so hokeish about what happens next.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's taken what little momentum was potentially coming

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<v Speaker 1>from that out. So now I definitely since I do

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<v Speaker 1>quite a lot of sort of anecdotal stuff talking to

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<v Speaker 1>various people in the property market, and they're all pretty despondent,

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<v Speaker 1>and definitely I think it's it's ten percent or something

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<v Speaker 1>off prices. Is certainly, you know, there's always a ten

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<v Speaker 1>percent bid off of spread between what sellers expect they

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<v Speaker 1>can get on buyers are prepared to sort of pay

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<v Speaker 1>it in one stage, and very much it's the buyers

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<v Speaker 1>are waiting ahead of the budget. There's no incentive for

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<v Speaker 1>them to get moving. We've still got quite a sort

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<v Speaker 1>of slow Perhaps everyone rushed to get everything completed at

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<v Speaker 1>the end of March and since then, everyone's you know,

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't seem to be moving far as completing things with

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<v Speaker 1>councils and searches and theirs and all that sort of stuff,

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<v Speaker 1>which is there's no momentum coming back through that. If

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the mortgage approvals that seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>okay ish house prices which are I think the Halifax

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<v Speaker 1>the nationwide surveys are very misleading. Where we look at

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<v Speaker 1>them a monthly, we really should. We should the Rich survey,

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<v Speaker 1>which is more backward looking than those, take a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit more prest view on it. But there's been nothing

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<v Speaker 1>particularly optimistic on the consumer side to make the housing

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<v Speaker 1>market do anything other than what we've been seeing throughout

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<v Speaker 1>the course of this year, which is it's definitely taken

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<v Speaker 1>quite a sizable knock, and I think we can put

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of that blame on Rachel Ruves is handling

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<v Speaker 1>in the economy and the whole lead up to the

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<v Speaker 1>October budget and the fallout from it and now exact

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<v Speaker 1>same rints repeat, which is economic and political madness as

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<v Speaker 1>far as concerned, to make the same mistake twice. But

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<v Speaker 1>she is not giving any form of incentive to anyone.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, if they're talking about taking away gift taxes

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<v Speaker 1>and inheritance taxes and more pensions, and we know at

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<v Speaker 1>the FINT that the whole thing is depressing you know,

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the data on concrete, you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>lowest since nineteen sixty three. There are no house building

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<v Speaker 1>plans going through. To look at what Decarn's done in London,

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<v Speaker 1>you know on an affordable homes something like three hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and fifty. That's it. The entire year. Nothing is getting

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<v Speaker 1>built and nothing is clearly going through as far as

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<v Speaker 1>the big developers. A concern lot of landfill, tax problems,

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of other knock on effects from you know,

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<v Speaker 1>stamp duty and what have you, is creating this complete

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<v Speaker 1>lack of rationale for property developers and builders to actually

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<v Speaker 1>commit to new projects. The banking isn't helping on that

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<v Speaker 1>front either. But you know this is this is the

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<v Speaker 1>only thing which gives me long term conference pats house

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<v Speaker 1>prices is that we're going to get a huge drop

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<v Speaker 1>in activity, which isn't great for anyone, particularly the ancilliary

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<v Speaker 1>things like you know, plumbers, Yeah, whereas all the different

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<v Speaker 1>carpets as what have you. But prices at some point

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<v Speaker 1>will have to correct or go back up again because

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<v Speaker 1>there's nothing been built, no supply supply and demand demand.

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<v Speaker 1>The economy is still there, but we may get a

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<v Speaker 1>long protracted period of statis, which I think we're already

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<v Speaker 1>into where activity is very very low. Volumes don't just

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<v Speaker 1>there's nothing there, and that creates a very poor market

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<v Speaker 1>and house prices I think will continue to drop for

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<v Speaker 1>for a while, but there is an underlying flow there

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<v Speaker 1>in supply isn't going to happen.

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<v Speaker 2>And just before we wrap up, you wrote an interest

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<v Speaker 2>in peace recently, and this sort of ties back to

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<v Speaker 2>the way that question of tax and government and who

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<v Speaker 2>we sort of and this was about the credit spreads,

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<v Speaker 2>So the gap between the yield or the interest rate

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<v Speaker 2>that companies need to pay and the yield or the

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<v Speaker 2>interest rate the government needs to pay on bordings, and

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<v Speaker 2>that has noted And usually that is the saying, if

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<v Speaker 2>I'm not in connective, possibly a rational exuberance when people

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<v Speaker 2>won't lend money to companies for the same amount as

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<v Speaker 2>that won't lend to governments as that.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, yeah, maybe back in the dark I used the dinosaurs.

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<v Speaker 1>I used to it now look joking apart that I've

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<v Speaker 1>written quite a lot on this as far as reason why,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, look at guilt yields. They're now the wildest

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<v Speaker 1>they've been to the United States for for a long

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<v Speaker 1>while looking them up at thirty five bits away. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just like we are creating our own problems, particularly longer

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<v Speaker 1>end government yields, because no one really trusts this government

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<v Speaker 1>expects I'm going to borrow more in the economy not

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<v Speaker 1>being great and the interest rates clearly from Bank of

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<v Speaker 1>England being so high. So but the basic point is

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<v Speaker 1>that the corporate world is you know, if you look

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<v Speaker 1>at the probably the best corporate earning season in the

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<v Speaker 1>States for well since COVID, certainly for a very long period,

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<v Speaker 1>we've got you know, eighty eighty five percent of companies

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<v Speaker 1>are beaten what the analysts expect him to do. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not just tech stocks that's dragging. Everything with the US

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<v Speaker 1>economy is going fine, And why would you want to

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<v Speaker 1>lend to the United States? You know, we're know thirty

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<v Speaker 1>seven trillion in counting. That's why they's lost its last

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<v Speaker 1>of its triple a's. Then why would you want to

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<v Speaker 1>lend a Microsoft or Apple or something like that. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's you know, the reason why corporate debt

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<v Speaker 1>is doing well is because underlying profits are very strong,

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is holding up, and the credit world and them,

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<v Speaker 1>so of course they're buying back they stocks obviously, but

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<v Speaker 1>you know buybacks are still very very strong. But the

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<v Speaker 1>point here is is that the corporate worlds and pretty

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<v Speaker 1>good rules rude health. Whereas always seeing its governments around

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<v Speaker 1>the world, UK, US in particular now Germany interestingly having

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<v Speaker 1>to borrow more and having a real problems with the

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<v Speaker 1>budget deficits, can't control fiscal spending as we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>the UK. And that's that's you're just getting a dynamic.

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<v Speaker 1>Why would you look to the risk free rate and

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<v Speaker 1>government yields as being sort of the load star when

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<v Speaker 1>you could lend to a corporate Anything I would say

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<v Speaker 1>is we do have one very interesting thing in the UK,

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<v Speaker 1>and just in the UK, is that if you buy

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<v Speaker 1>a UK guilt, particularly on they load coupon, you don't

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<v Speaker 1>pay any capital gains tax on it. Remember capital gains tax,

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<v Speaker 1>because I think great roofs certainly capical games tax and

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<v Speaker 1>should be coming back on that one. But at the moment,

0:11:28.920 --> 0:11:34.600
<v Speaker 1>for buying a guilt and particularly not paying on one

0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:38.240
<v Speaker 1>of the very low coupons that you'll pay to get

0:11:38.280 --> 0:11:44.400
<v Speaker 1>mostly money from the game, you're buying something at say

0:11:44.480 --> 0:11:46.840
<v Speaker 1>ninety pence on the pound, and insures in a few

0:11:46.880 --> 0:11:50.040
<v Speaker 1>years time. At one hundred, you know you're not going

0:11:50.120 --> 0:11:52.360
<v Speaker 1>to pay any tax on that game. You will pay

0:11:52.440 --> 0:11:54.440
<v Speaker 1>just a very modest thing on a very only for

0:11:54.480 --> 0:11:55.400
<v Speaker 1>the very looky points.

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<v Speaker 2>Actually, this is a really useful tip to remember because

0:11:58.360 --> 0:12:04.480
<v Speaker 2>you rate all this that is efficient, and also from

0:12:04.480 --> 0:12:07.240
<v Speaker 2>from an individual's point of view, if we're going to

0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:09.360
<v Speaker 2>get hammered and everything else, the one thing that she

0:12:09.480 --> 0:12:13.960
<v Speaker 2>won't touch is something that creates extra demand for guilt.

0:12:14.240 --> 0:12:20.080
<v Speaker 2>At this point you would have thought, yes, okay, well,

0:12:20.280 --> 0:12:24.079
<v Speaker 2>on that optimistic note, Mark is I think we'll wrap

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<v Speaker 2>up for the time being. Thanks for listening to this

0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.200
<v Speaker 2>week's Man Talks Money Debrief. If you like our show,

0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.240
<v Speaker 2>rate review, and subscribe wherever you listen to podcasts. This

0:12:44.320 --> 0:12:47.680
<v Speaker 2>episode was produced by Moses and and Summer Sadie Special

0:12:47.760 --> 0:12:50.720
<v Speaker 2>thanks to Marcus Ashworth. As always, in questions and comments

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<v Speaker 2>on this show and all our shows are always welcome.

0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:56.080
<v Speaker 2>Our show email was Mere and Money at bloomber dot net.