1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:13,040 Speaker 1: Yeah, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast named Tom Keene 2 00:00:13,480 --> 00:00:17,560 Speaker 1: Jay Leye. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 3 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 4 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg YEA 5 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 1: our top story about day for some of the President's men, 6 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,640 Speaker 1: His former personal lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to a 7 00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: legal campaign finance charges, all but naming Trump as having 8 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:46,600 Speaker 1: ordered him to do it. Moments later, the president's former 9 00:00:46,640 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: campaign chairman, Paul Manifold was convicted on eight counts of 10 00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:53,360 Speaker 1: tax and bank fraud charges. Joining us from Capitol Hill 11 00:00:53,440 --> 00:00:57,000 Speaker 1: is bloombergs Kevin so really our chief Washington correspondent. Good 12 00:00:57,000 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 1: morning to you, Kevin. On a busy day for Washington 13 00:00:59,840 --> 00:01:03,320 Speaker 1: d see what has changed for the president. Well, there's 14 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: an increasing pressure, Jonathan from Democrats to avoid the abuse 15 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 1: of pardoning power as it's being described. There's a legislation 16 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,039 Speaker 1: in the Democratic controlled Attorney General's Office in New York 17 00:01:15,080 --> 00:01:17,840 Speaker 1: that would close what they argue is a loophole for 18 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:21,200 Speaker 1: the president's to pardon someone like Paul Manaport. Democrats up 19 00:01:21,200 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: on Capitol Hill in the House and the Senate, urging 20 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 1: Republicans to avoid the issue by by also joining them 21 00:01:29,319 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 1: and avoiding having the President part of them. Books for 22 00:01:32,360 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 1: the President's next twenty four hours, he's said to have 23 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:36,480 Speaker 1: lunch with the Secretary of Defense and then have an 24 00:01:36,520 --> 00:01:41,319 Speaker 1: awarding of the Medal of Honor later this afternoon. The President, 25 00:01:41,480 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: while speaking last night in West Virginia, UH prior to 26 00:01:45,680 --> 00:01:53,240 Speaker 1: that speech, criticized Paul Manafort. UH criticized UH Paul Manaford 27 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:56,560 Speaker 1: UH in saying I'm sorry defendant Paul Manaport, but made 28 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: no mention of Michael Cohen. So far, we haven't had 29 00:01:59,480 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 1: really a fitial response from the President of the United 30 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:05,080 Speaker 1: States apart from that rally and heading to that rally, Kevin, 31 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:09,280 Speaker 1: what's expected in Washington, d C. What comes next? Well, 32 00:02:09,280 --> 00:02:11,640 Speaker 1: when I seek the Republicans, they they have echoed the 33 00:02:11,639 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: President in the sense that they've said that there is 34 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:16,799 Speaker 1: no evidence of collusion. Polls suggests that the base of 35 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 1: the Republican Party is still very much behind the President 36 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 1: in terms of UH agreeing and echoing him when they 37 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,440 Speaker 1: say that the investigation of the witch hunt. In terms 38 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:29,880 Speaker 1: of what comes next, really it becomes whenever Bob Mueller 39 00:02:29,919 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: wraps up his investigation. And I spoke with several sources yesterday, Jonathan, 40 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,040 Speaker 1: who said to me that this is a win for 41 00:02:36,160 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: the for the Special Council's investigation because of the court 42 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 1: documents that you've got In the intro, which is essentially 43 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:45,200 Speaker 1: Michael Cohen says he was instructed by the only candidate 44 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:47,519 Speaker 1: he was working for at the time, Donald Trump, to 45 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: provide those touch money payments. Kevin Si really great to 46 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:51,840 Speaker 1: cant show me this morning on a busy morning for 47 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 1: Kevin Sirillian everyone in Washington, d C. Joining us now 48 00:02:55,480 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: from New York and place to say that. Kim Wallace 49 00:02:57,680 --> 00:03:00,400 Speaker 1: joins us now. You're as your group managing Die Rector. 50 00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:04,000 Speaker 1: He served in President Obama's administration as Assistant Secretary for 51 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:07,359 Speaker 1: Legislative Affairs at the Treasury Department. Kim, it's always great 52 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:09,840 Speaker 1: to get your insights. So let's begin with an extreme question. 53 00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: Does any of this as it stands incrementally impact the 54 00:03:13,200 --> 00:03:17,760 Speaker 1: odds of the president staying in the White House. Good morning, Jonathan. 55 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,639 Speaker 1: I think it's premature to take these disparate acts, although 56 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 1: they are coming fast and furious, and extrapolate out that far. 57 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:30,639 Speaker 1: I would say this that the president is under pressure. 58 00:03:30,680 --> 00:03:33,640 Speaker 1: That's unique for presidency. Is not only multitasking on an 59 00:03:34,120 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: array of transformative policy agendas, he's also now got to 60 00:03:38,240 --> 00:03:42,960 Speaker 1: worry about a few different legal processes under way that's 61 00:03:42,960 --> 00:03:45,680 Speaker 1: going to tax this staff. That will tax obviously his 62 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 1: legal staff, but it will more importantly make more reticent 63 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,240 Speaker 1: to partisans on Capitol Hill to venture out on any 64 00:03:53,280 --> 00:03:56,720 Speaker 1: other policy excursion. So it's it's less whether or not, 65 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,000 Speaker 1: in my view, whether or not impeachment is around the 66 00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:01,920 Speaker 1: corner more or whether or not Washington has become a 67 00:04:02,000 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: risk to market. Kim, do you just assume that Republicans, 68 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,000 Speaker 1: you know, is in a general statement, will do nothing 69 00:04:11,040 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: until the election. We're seventy six days away, and even 70 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,840 Speaker 1: with the historic moment that we saw yesterday afternoon, and folks, 71 00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:21,839 Speaker 1: for those of uliciting worldwide in Radio London, was extraordinary 72 00:04:21,920 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 1: to see John Farrell the split screen on on television 73 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,320 Speaker 1: of the two trials going on at the same time, 74 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 1: just extraordinary. But within this, Kim, do the Republicans just 75 00:04:32,760 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 1: keep doing what they're doing, which is maybe living in 76 00:04:36,400 --> 00:04:40,039 Speaker 1: silence while they support the president? You know, time that 77 00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 1: had been my working assumption up until yesterday. Seventy six 78 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: days is a long time, and it depends, in my view, 79 00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 1: GOP behavior going into the election depends on public opinion. 80 00:04:52,279 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 1: If the polls that we start getting in you know, 81 00:04:55,520 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 1: five days, add on to the polls we've already seen 82 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,360 Speaker 1: where the issue of correct option the president is in 83 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:06,000 Speaker 1: double digit negatives net negatives. If that grows and worsens, 84 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 1: it's going to make some of these thirty forty competitive races. 85 00:05:09,480 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 1: And the Republicans and am very nervous and likely they're 86 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: going to seek some distance from the White House. That 87 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:19,040 Speaker 1: was Greg Valier's legally thought was this is about public opinion, 88 00:05:19,120 --> 00:05:21,599 Speaker 1: less about all the nuances and the Bellway stuff. Mr. 89 00:05:21,920 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: Really so, so let me ask you another question, Kim. 90 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:27,839 Speaker 1: Does any of this incrementally damaged Republicans mid term election prospects? 91 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,680 Speaker 1: You know, Jonathan, they weren't right going into this, and 92 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:36,560 Speaker 1: certainly this issue of corruption and the president's legal problems 93 00:05:36,600 --> 00:05:39,479 Speaker 1: have been long enough. It hasn't effected the basis support 94 00:05:39,520 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: for him. What will What will note retrospectively is whether 95 00:05:43,400 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 1: or not it hurt turnout in the base, whether that 96 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 1: is what they're telling posters about their support for the 97 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: president doesn't show up on November seven when they actually 98 00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: have to go to the polls and vote for establishment 99 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 1: Republicans who are different from the president. Can you brought 100 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,400 Speaker 1: up the market? So I want to talk about them markets. 101 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,840 Speaker 1: We caught up with Bob Dollar new VNSA Management a 102 00:06:02,880 --> 00:06:06,080 Speaker 1: little bit earlier, and he brought up two extremely imperfect parallels, 103 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:09,560 Speaker 1: Nixon and Clinton, and both of those issues. And the 104 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: way those episodes unfolded for the financial markets is that 105 00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:15,680 Speaker 1: with Nixon, markets went down and with Clinson markets went up. 106 00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:17,760 Speaker 1: And it was nothing really to do with any of 107 00:06:17,800 --> 00:06:20,120 Speaker 1: the individuals or any of the episodes specifically. It was 108 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,159 Speaker 1: about earnings and it was about growth and earnings and 109 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: growth weren't good in the seven season, they were good 110 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 1: in the nineties. Isn't that really the story here, Kim? 111 00:06:26,920 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 1: How insulated markets will be is dependent on something else, 112 00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:33,280 Speaker 1: completely separate from Washington d C. I think that's true 113 00:06:33,320 --> 00:06:36,960 Speaker 1: a large part. The fundamentals always matter most to the markets. 114 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 1: But going back to Bob's nineteen seventy three point, in 115 00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:44,520 Speaker 1: January of seventy three, the SMP cracked, that didn't regain 116 00:06:44,560 --> 00:06:46,960 Speaker 1: its nominal value of one or two for seven and 117 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:52,240 Speaker 1: a half years, and that's because wars, energy embargoes, other 118 00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: supplied to problems and hyperinflation. So the problem with confidence 119 00:06:57,480 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: in the White House being cracked is that the funder 120 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: mentals have to go well for a long time to 121 00:07:02,760 --> 00:07:05,920 Speaker 1: restore confidence in the markets. Kim Wellas to your expertise 122 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:10,120 Speaker 1: with Treasury, where does Secretary Minution fit into this? He's been, 123 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: I'm going to suggest, relatively quiet recently. Is he an 124 00:07:14,920 --> 00:07:19,400 Speaker 1: important player in the next seventies six days? The Secretary 125 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:21,920 Speaker 1: might be tested in ways over the next seventy six 126 00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: days that he hasn't been in the previous seven quarters. Tom, 127 00:07:25,320 --> 00:07:27,960 Speaker 1: I would it would seem to me that he would 128 00:07:28,000 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: want to remain quiet so as not to change his 129 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,680 Speaker 1: behavior and therefore have markets notice that he's acting differently. 130 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 1: But he's certainly going to be more circumspect than what 131 00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:40,680 Speaker 1: he's willing to say, whether it's about the dollar or 132 00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:43,400 Speaker 1: whether it's about markets. Kim Wells, thank you so much 133 00:07:43,440 --> 00:07:47,920 Speaker 1: with your raiser group this morning. Truly timely as as 134 00:07:47,960 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: we all adjust what we saw to that question on 135 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 1: Washington and the events of the last twenty four hours. 136 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,880 Speaker 1: Our interview of the day Robert ray is with us, 137 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: which barely describes his work on any number of cases. 138 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 1: The attraction of Robert Ray Uh is the former Uh 139 00:08:20,880 --> 00:08:23,120 Speaker 1: the head of the Office of Independent Council. This after 140 00:08:23,200 --> 00:08:26,080 Speaker 1: Ken of Star and with Ken Starr is a number 141 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,600 Speaker 1: of cases he's been involved with. And all of this, Bob, 142 00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:32,760 Speaker 1: came out of your work at Washington in Lee Law School, 143 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,439 Speaker 1: which to me is the most interesting law school in America. 144 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: You went from Princeton down the Shenandoah Valley until this 145 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: little little school, which is a jewel of law. What 146 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: is Washington Lee. The history there in that law school 147 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: there tell you about the moment we witnessed yesterday. Well uniquely, 148 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:58,080 Speaker 1: Washington and Lee, of course came largely into existence and 149 00:08:58,280 --> 00:09:03,040 Speaker 1: was furthered as the result of a gift by President Washington. 150 00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 1: It steeped in our history, so it travels all the 151 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 1: way back to the Revolution and before, and of course 152 00:09:11,200 --> 00:09:14,400 Speaker 1: it um It is the place what was then Washington 153 00:09:14,480 --> 00:09:18,880 Speaker 1: College where Robert E. Lee went and became president of 154 00:09:18,920 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: the college after the Appomattox and the end of the 155 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: Civil War. So last night, near twelve midnight, Lawfare published 156 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,560 Speaker 1: their long article and then they clear what happened yesterday 157 00:09:29,600 --> 00:09:32,680 Speaker 1: has never happened in the Washington and Lee Republic. Was 158 00:09:32,720 --> 00:09:38,199 Speaker 1: it that original what happened yesterday? It certainly was, um 159 00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: a significant moment. I'm not sure I would quite compare 160 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 1: it to um that date in nineteen seventy four when 161 00:09:46,240 --> 00:09:50,240 Speaker 1: a slew of the president's men, meaning Presidents Nixon's men 162 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:55,439 Speaker 1: were Archibald Cox, you know, subject to to indictment. Um. 163 00:09:55,600 --> 00:09:59,680 Speaker 1: But having said that, I mean, obviously you can certainly criticize, 164 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:04,160 Speaker 1: and fair criticism, and the fact that the president during 165 00:10:04,200 --> 00:10:08,320 Speaker 1: the campaign and thereafter surrounded himself with at least in 166 00:10:08,320 --> 00:10:12,800 Speaker 1: this instance, two very questionable figures, and it creates legal 167 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,360 Speaker 1: problems obviously for the president as a result, at least 168 00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:19,720 Speaker 1: in part of the but particularly the Michael Cohen play, 169 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:23,720 Speaker 1: and whether or not, you know, as has been now reported, 170 00:10:24,200 --> 00:10:27,560 Speaker 1: whether there's more to come with regard to further implicating 171 00:10:27,640 --> 00:10:31,600 Speaker 1: the president in connection with an alleged campaign finance violation. 172 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:34,760 Speaker 1: So let's talk about Michael Cummin. He's effectively all but 173 00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:38,000 Speaker 1: named the president as having ordered him to commit a crime. Well, 174 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:40,600 Speaker 1: I'd be careful about effectively. I mean he he was 175 00:10:40,679 --> 00:10:46,360 Speaker 1: directed by the candidate UH to make a payment. Whether 176 00:10:46,400 --> 00:10:50,679 Speaker 1: you can turn that into the president knowingly and willfully 177 00:10:50,800 --> 00:10:54,320 Speaker 1: violated the campaign finance laws is at least in my judgment, 178 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 1: altogether another question. And you know, to put it in 179 00:10:57,559 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 1: layman's terms that you know, the jury is still out 180 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,240 Speaker 1: on that question. So the jury is still out Covins law. 181 00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: As you say, there could be some escalation risk embedded 182 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,440 Speaker 1: into this episode because he's gone on MSNBC and said 183 00:11:07,480 --> 00:11:10,920 Speaker 1: that Covin has knowledge of Russian conspiracy. Let's talk about 184 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:13,680 Speaker 1: best practice. Then, how would you advise the president to 185 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: conduct himself over the coming months with this going on? Well, 186 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 1: I I think I have said previously that I think 187 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: the president's best strategy at this point is to ride 188 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: this thing out to a conclusion. I think it does 189 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,800 Speaker 1: raise the specter and the prospect of the significance of 190 00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 1: the midterm elections and whether or not the president would 191 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: face impeachment in the event that the House of Representatives 192 00:11:34,800 --> 00:11:38,680 Speaker 1: went to the Democrats, because they would have subpoena power, 193 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:41,800 Speaker 1: and there's already some indication that leading figures in the 194 00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: Democratic Party seemed to be hell bent and determined to 195 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:49,080 Speaker 1: turn this into an impeachment proceeding query whether that really 196 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:51,960 Speaker 1: is where they want to go and whether or not 197 00:11:53,000 --> 00:11:56,520 Speaker 1: campaign finance violations really if there's nothing more, and I 198 00:11:56,520 --> 00:11:59,080 Speaker 1: guess we still don't know yet because Bob Muller has 199 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 1: not concluded his instigation. But you know where this goes, obviously, 200 00:12:03,640 --> 00:12:07,400 Speaker 1: is the sixty four thousand dollar questions. That basic question 201 00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: on violations of campaign finance rules before you are the 202 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 1: president of the United States. Is that grants for impeachment? Well, 203 00:12:15,640 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: it's obviously, at the end of the day, a political 204 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: judgment rather than a legal judgment. And it it is 205 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,840 Speaker 1: whatever the Congress of the United States decides. I mean, 206 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,359 Speaker 1: they get to decide whether or not under the Constitution 207 00:12:25,880 --> 00:12:29,240 Speaker 1: that would constitute high crimes and misdemeanors. If some people 208 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 1: would argue yes and some people would argue no, at 209 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:34,959 Speaker 1: the end of the day, what is it. It's whatever 210 00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 1: Congress decides it is. But remember also, and this is 211 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 1: I think that the lesson of history. If we go 212 00:12:39,880 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: back to the beginning, there have only been impeachment proceedings 213 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 1: twice against a president, the first Andrew Johnson and the 214 00:12:47,040 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: second Bill Clinton, neither of which were successful. What people 215 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:54,200 Speaker 1: need to understand and remember is it is a partisan 216 00:12:54,600 --> 00:13:00,240 Speaker 1: and political proceeding, but it requires under the constitution because 217 00:13:00,240 --> 00:13:03,160 Speaker 1: it's a very high bar. The only way a president 218 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,640 Speaker 1: can be removed and the result of an election overturned 219 00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: is if there is a conviction in the Senate, and 220 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:12,199 Speaker 1: because it is required under the Constitution, that would be 221 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: a two thirds majority. The only way that's ever going 222 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:19,400 Speaker 1: to happen is if the party in power deserts the 223 00:13:19,480 --> 00:13:22,520 Speaker 1: president and as a result of that, as was the 224 00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: case with Richard niction Um since although he was never 225 00:13:26,200 --> 00:13:30,200 Speaker 1: impeached Um and removed from office, obviously he resigned before 226 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: that happened. But the reason he resigned is because it 227 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:36,520 Speaker 1: was a foregone conclusion that the Republican Party had abandoned him, 228 00:13:36,920 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: and you know, facts being stubbornd stubborn things, Um, they 229 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,800 Speaker 1: came to the conclusion that, in fact, he was involved 230 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,280 Speaker 1: in a conspiracy to obstruct justice. You're just joining us 231 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: vert ray with this prosecutor? Is what is Wikipedia as 232 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,439 Speaker 1: which barely describes as public service, including writing the actual 233 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 1: reports on Lewinsky, Madison, Guarantee, on Mrs Clinton, Bernard Um 234 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:02,440 Speaker 1: and others over the years. What does the media get 235 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 1: wrong in their coverage? You are like Mr Mueller total business, 236 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:11,920 Speaker 1: total grizzled legal. It's a Now I assume it's a 237 00:14:11,920 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: word processor, but you've got a quill in your hand 238 00:14:14,640 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 1: and you're writing it out these actual documents. What's the 239 00:14:17,880 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: media get wrong in its coverage? Well, there seems to 240 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:25,920 Speaker 1: be largely an overreaction to every single thing that comes out. 241 00:14:26,040 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 1: I mean, we have to do that. Well, I guess 242 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 1: that's I mean, I guess that's right. But I mean, 243 00:14:30,560 --> 00:14:35,160 Speaker 1: you know, a dispassionate prosecutor asked the question just be caused. 244 00:14:35,160 --> 00:14:39,120 Speaker 1: For example, Michael Cohen says that Donald Trump directed him 245 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:42,800 Speaker 1: to make a campaign contribution, begs the question about whether 246 00:14:42,880 --> 00:14:45,960 Speaker 1: or not Donald Trump was knowingly in violation of the 247 00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: campaign finance laws. I mean, one you'd think about some 248 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 1: very relevant considerations, not the least of which is, Hello, 249 00:14:52,760 --> 00:14:55,920 Speaker 1: Michael Cohen was Donald Trump's lawyer. Donald Trump has an 250 00:14:55,920 --> 00:14:58,240 Speaker 1: advice of counsel defense. I mean, you know, I assume 251 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:00,560 Speaker 1: his defense is going to be Listen, I asked Michael 252 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:02,440 Speaker 1: Cohen to take care of this, but I never told 253 00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:05,240 Speaker 1: Michael Cohen to violate the law. In any event, I'm 254 00:15:05,240 --> 00:15:08,280 Speaker 1: not a lawyer. He is. I depend on his legal advice, 255 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,200 Speaker 1: and I depend and relied on the fact that he 256 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: wouldn't be engaged in a campaign finance violence points out 257 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: is his farm on nuanced and complex, And I think 258 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 1: people appreciate just because Michael Cohen has committed a crime 259 00:15:19,480 --> 00:15:21,400 Speaker 1: and it admitted he's committed a crime and said the 260 00:15:21,440 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 1: president was the person that ordered him to do whatever 261 00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:26,800 Speaker 1: he has done, does not mean necessarily the president has 262 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 1: committed not the same thing as ordering him to commit 263 00:15:29,320 --> 00:15:32,400 Speaker 1: a federal felony. So look, I don't know what the 264 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: conversations were. I think I would be surprised if the 265 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:40,920 Speaker 1: conversations are what I guess the media seems to speculate automatically. Well, 266 00:15:41,000 --> 00:15:42,760 Speaker 1: she's not means he has the keys to the kingdom 267 00:15:42,800 --> 00:15:45,680 Speaker 1: and he knows that Donald Grump is a felon that 268 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,280 Speaker 1: Bob Mower's office would already have known that. And if 269 00:15:48,280 --> 00:15:50,640 Speaker 1: they already knew that and had that was surprising to 270 00:15:50,680 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 1: me that they would have a let go of the 271 00:15:52,520 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: prosecution by giving it to the Southern District of New 272 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:59,080 Speaker 1: York and be um if if they had that information, 273 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,800 Speaker 1: then why didn't they sign them up to a cooperation agreement? 274 00:16:01,800 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: Which is not what happened yesterday in court so again, 275 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,200 Speaker 1: I mean I don't need to you know, spread uh, 276 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:11,200 Speaker 1: you know, a big blanket of cold water over all 277 00:16:11,200 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 1: of this. But I guess my point is is that 278 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:16,400 Speaker 1: there's a bit of an overreaction to its significance. I'm 279 00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:21,200 Speaker 1: not saying it's insignificant. It is significant. When two members 280 00:16:21,200 --> 00:16:24,640 Speaker 1: of the president's inner circle have now been found guilty 281 00:16:24,760 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: or by a jury and or pleaded guilty to federal felonies. 282 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,760 Speaker 1: That's not an insignificant development. One final question in your experience, 283 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:36,240 Speaker 1: how do these discussions change when it's about you're not 284 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:38,680 Speaker 1: going to be with your kids or your kids are 285 00:16:38,680 --> 00:16:43,320 Speaker 1: going to get involved? When families are drawn into this, Well, 286 00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: that's the other missing piece to all of this, in 287 00:16:45,800 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: addition to the overreaction. You know, there's a human story 288 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,120 Speaker 1: here that gets completely lost. Tell us about that. Let 289 00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:54,160 Speaker 1: me tell let me tell you how it feels to 290 00:16:54,280 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 1: be on the receiving end of the full weight and 291 00:16:57,160 --> 00:17:00,000 Speaker 1: authority of the United States government and the United State 292 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:03,440 Speaker 1: It's Justice Department zeroed in and targeted on your head 293 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:07,920 Speaker 1: to have you brought to justice. That is a a 294 00:17:08,200 --> 00:17:12,040 Speaker 1: harrowing moment. I used to say, I would never wish 295 00:17:12,080 --> 00:17:16,200 Speaker 1: a special counsel or independent Council investigation on my worst 296 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:21,280 Speaker 1: enemy because of the frightening power that is exercised in 297 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: order to hold people to justice. Now, you know, that's 298 00:17:23,640 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 1: the beauty of this country is that we do hold 299 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: people accountable. But you know, taking a just a pause 300 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:33,719 Speaker 1: and a deep breath to reflect on how difficult that 301 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: must be. The one thing that will be that will 302 00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:39,040 Speaker 1: be true here that both Michael Cohen and Paul man 303 00:17:39,119 --> 00:17:43,159 Speaker 1: Offort will face now quickly over the next several weeks, 304 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: will be whether or not they've got anything further to give, 305 00:17:46,840 --> 00:17:49,480 Speaker 1: because if there's something there to give, it will be 306 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:51,600 Speaker 1: gotten as the result of this pressure. You gotta leave 307 00:17:51,640 --> 00:18:09,280 Speaker 1: it there, Robert Ray, thank you so much. Former Prosecutor John. 308 00:18:09,280 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 1: I want you to bring in our next esteem guests, 309 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 1: but I just want to say that he and many 310 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:19,520 Speaker 1: others need a massive and subtle victory lap for not 311 00:18:19,760 --> 00:18:23,320 Speaker 1: one saying stay in the market, have courage, but in 312 00:18:23,359 --> 00:18:28,480 Speaker 1: this great bull market, just time after time after time, 313 00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:31,640 Speaker 1: it's been extraordinary run, staying long and strong. Bubb Doll 314 00:18:31,840 --> 00:18:34,920 Speaker 1: moving asset management portfolio manager. He joins us. Now, well, 315 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 1: great to catch up. It's a record run for the 316 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,960 Speaker 1: bull market, depending on how you measure it. It's a 317 00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: record high and yesterday's session and it's still the most 318 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 1: unloved bull market in history. Why Bob, Yes, there are 319 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,000 Speaker 1: so many skeptics on things, as you well know, and 320 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,879 Speaker 1: bull markets love to climb those walls of worry. And 321 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:56,800 Speaker 1: the list of reasons to worry it is long and 322 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: seems to be increasing. Oh, you knows the economy running 323 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 1: out of eam, Is the bullmarket too old? Is the 324 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: president not going to be able to govern? And the 325 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: list goes on and on and on and in the meantime, 326 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,959 Speaker 1: the economy's left I checked really good and earnings are 327 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,280 Speaker 1: even better, and that's what move stocks. Last year, the 328 00:19:14,320 --> 00:19:18,680 Speaker 1: most often question, the question I got was with Washington 329 00:19:18,800 --> 00:19:21,240 Speaker 1: d C such a mess? How can the stock market 330 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,440 Speaker 1: be so good? And my response, as you answered your 331 00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 1: own question, Washington d C does not move stocks. Earnings 332 00:19:28,840 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 1: move stocks. Yes, DC does things from a policy standpoint 333 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 1: that can affect earnings over the long term. But but 334 00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:37,880 Speaker 1: you know that earning story, the earning story right now 335 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,880 Speaker 1: is pretty good, and it's juced by a tax cut, 336 00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:42,760 Speaker 1: juice by a tax cut, and you just wonder how 337 00:19:42,840 --> 00:19:45,159 Speaker 1: sustainable it is do you take some optimism by how 338 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,720 Speaker 1: good top line growth is being Bob. Yes, we estimate 339 00:19:48,840 --> 00:19:52,119 Speaker 1: of the call it earnings growth from the first half 340 00:19:52,119 --> 00:19:54,440 Speaker 1: of the year, about a third of it has come 341 00:19:54,520 --> 00:19:58,560 Speaker 1: from extraordinarily top top line growth, which means the US 342 00:19:58,640 --> 00:20:02,639 Speaker 1: economy is doing well in most pockets and outside the 343 00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: U s well, It's fraid a little bit on the 344 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,360 Speaker 1: edges is pretty good as well. And so the multinationals 345 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:11,520 Speaker 1: have some revenue growth. Revenue growth is awesome. And you 346 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,640 Speaker 1: mentioned the tax bill. Thank goodness, all this political noises 347 00:20:14,680 --> 00:20:17,960 Speaker 1: coming after that tax bill is an effect, and that's 348 00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,400 Speaker 1: the stimulus that we will enjoy no matter how these 349 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:25,239 Speaker 1: proceedings go. Where's your favorite sector? I mean, if if 350 00:20:25,520 --> 00:20:28,159 Speaker 1: we're if we're rich, I got to get in the market. 351 00:20:28,200 --> 00:20:31,560 Speaker 1: I'm a sector generator. What's the sector I want to 352 00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,399 Speaker 1: be in? Right now? I will answer your question, but 353 00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: let me put a theme on the table, Tom, if 354 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:40,360 Speaker 1: I might, that I think is even more important owning companies. 355 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,720 Speaker 1: As a US investor, they get most their earnings from 356 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:48,880 Speaker 1: inside the US. Therefore, de emphasizing multinational earnings has had 357 00:20:49,040 --> 00:20:53,359 Speaker 1: major tales tail winds the text bill, relative economic and 358 00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:57,560 Speaker 1: earnest growth, the trade issue currency. All of them have 359 00:20:57,600 --> 00:21:01,199 Speaker 1: been supportive of that theme. So question where do you 360 00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:06,199 Speaker 1: find those names? A lot of healthcare names, insurers, etcetera, 361 00:21:06,520 --> 00:21:09,439 Speaker 1: tend to be more domestic. The retailers here's target with 362 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 1: another wonderful earnings report. The retailers mostly domestic industry. They're 363 00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,840 Speaker 1: the kind of places I would partner money. Where are 364 00:21:17,880 --> 00:21:20,000 Speaker 1: you seeing with use of money right now? I mean, 365 00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,080 Speaker 1: you know, we came out of this and there were 366 00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,560 Speaker 1: some real skeptics about investment and what was this going 367 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: to be? A share buy back and dividend growth? What's 368 00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,359 Speaker 1: the actual numbers that you calculate with Nvine every day? 369 00:21:31,440 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 1: So so we're looking at h We're looking at earnings 370 00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: growth peaking, but earnings still being strong. I mean a 371 00:21:40,080 --> 00:21:42,320 Speaker 1: lot of people earnings growth peaked. There for the stock 372 00:21:42,400 --> 00:21:44,440 Speaker 1: market's got to have trouble. No, no, no, no no. 373 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,440 Speaker 1: If we go from plus twenty five to minus two, yeah, 374 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,879 Speaker 1: the stock market have trouble. We're going from plus twenty 375 00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:52,520 Speaker 1: five to plus eight team plus twenty. What are they 376 00:21:52,520 --> 00:21:56,119 Speaker 1: doing with the cash. They're taking the cash and reinvest 377 00:21:56,160 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 1: in their business. Capital expenditures up fifteen depending what's hereies 378 00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,840 Speaker 1: you look at and yes they're buying backstock, and yes 379 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:07,399 Speaker 1: they're raising dividends. Because cash flow is so strong they 380 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:09,639 Speaker 1: can do all the above, and M and A buying 381 00:22:09,640 --> 00:22:11,760 Speaker 1: the company down the street. There are lots of great 382 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 1: usay cash when this is strong. And if we go 383 00:22:13,920 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 1: to William Priest and free cash flow in use of cash, 384 00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:21,680 Speaker 1: shareholder yield, what's my yield on the market January one? 385 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at use of cash plus 386 00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:28,680 Speaker 1: cash dividends, what is it? Four or five in one? 387 00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,960 Speaker 1: Four to five is our guests um. But dividends are 388 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 1: moving up because of the cash flow. Share buy backs 389 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:40,000 Speaker 1: have increased, but as the percentage of the capitalization not 390 00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:44,639 Speaker 1: as much. Thank goodness, corporate CEOs are more optimistic on 391 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 1: their business and more willing to reinvest. So we'll take 392 00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:51,000 Speaker 1: a dividend increase or a share buy back in a 393 00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:54,080 Speaker 1: company that's net free cash flow positive, but we much 394 00:22:54,200 --> 00:22:58,199 Speaker 1: prefer reinvest in your business. Show me you're investing, your 395 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:01,640 Speaker 1: improve your return on equity, where turn on assets, returning investment, 396 00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,359 Speaker 1: and your growthery. Bob, you and I talked about this before. 397 00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 1: Let's talk about the yield curve. Two stands is just 398 00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 1: broken down today two new cycle tights. So the spread 399 00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,800 Speaker 1: between the two you and the tenure and the treasury 400 00:23:12,800 --> 00:23:15,920 Speaker 1: market around about twenty two basis points. We dropped below 401 00:23:15,960 --> 00:23:19,280 Speaker 1: that very briefly in today's session. How do you communicate 402 00:23:19,320 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 1: to clients that they shouldn't worry yet, because historically, when 403 00:23:23,600 --> 00:23:27,520 Speaker 1: the yield curve narrows, it is because the economy is 404 00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 1: doing well, earnings are doing the well, and the fit 405 00:23:30,359 --> 00:23:32,960 Speaker 1: is normalizing. Right, it's usually a period when stocks do 406 00:23:33,080 --> 00:23:37,720 Speaker 1: extraordinarily well. The yield curve began to narrow, of note 407 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: about a year ago, and if I sold stocks based 408 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 1: on that, I've been made a mistake. The yellow light 409 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 1: doesn't go on for me until the yield curve actually inverts. 410 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 1: And yellow doesn't mean I run, It just SEMs I 411 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:51,400 Speaker 1: have a bunch of green flags, and I would add 412 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: one yellow flag in the mix of all the good 413 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: things I look at. So watch it carefully. It's it's 414 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,640 Speaker 1: not a positive for the stock market, but not yet. 415 00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,160 Speaker 1: An if you know Bob, you know what I've known 416 00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:06,360 Speaker 1: each other for years, explained to those younger how original 417 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:10,560 Speaker 1: this cycle is and how you can stay invested because 418 00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 1: John Farrell and I are positive. On Friday, there will 419 00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:18,960 Speaker 1: be gloom, essays Galore. Yes, there will be um. I 420 00:24:19,000 --> 00:24:21,239 Speaker 1: guess to keep it simple, Tom, if you told if 421 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: you dropped me on the planet and told me that 422 00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:28,360 Speaker 1: real GDP in the US was three, the nominal GDP 423 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: in the US was five, the unemployment rate was below four, 424 00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 1: and wager rate inflation was two points something, I'd say, Wow, 425 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:40,840 Speaker 1: either you're lying to me or this is an unbelievable 426 00:24:40,880 --> 00:24:43,879 Speaker 1: city circus. What I gotta stop the show, folks. What 427 00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:48,159 Speaker 1: Mr Doll just said there is so important, John just 428 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:52,760 Speaker 1: it's incredibly important to take all the noise away that 429 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:56,280 Speaker 1: we all live with. Like A C. Mullon and Juventus. 430 00:24:56,520 --> 00:24:59,800 Speaker 1: You take the noise away, the noise and Bob Bob 431 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,360 Speaker 1: nails it, Bob Dove. We've also got to say thank 432 00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,040 Speaker 1: you to you, Bob, thank you for joining the show today. 433 00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:10,919 Speaker 1: Call us when you go negative, portfolio manager, We'll be 434 00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: talking to Bob long before it turns negative. John, We've 435 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:29,160 Speaker 1: got to do a surveilling's correction. Phil saves the day 436 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,680 Speaker 1: with Mark McCormick of TD Securities looking for Capital's maple leafs. 437 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:38,720 Speaker 1: In January. Uh, it's the Scotia Arena. Scotia wait a 438 00:25:38,800 --> 00:25:41,760 Speaker 1: second way, Scotia Bank is you is you pulled me 439 00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,119 Speaker 1: out on air about calling at the stadium the garden. 440 00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:47,920 Speaker 1: It's the garden, garden. But is it the garden or not? 441 00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,280 Speaker 1: It will always be the maple leaf it is. It 442 00:25:50,560 --> 00:25:54,800 Speaker 1: is the Montreal Forum, right, the maple leaf garden. Maple 443 00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,159 Speaker 1: leaf garden. But it's sponsored now by Scotia. Bas is 444 00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:01,480 Speaker 1: the most complex correction it is. This is what that's 445 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:04,360 Speaker 1: millions of dollars are involved. It's not even a correction. 446 00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,760 Speaker 1: They don't they do this in Chicago. They don't. They don't. 447 00:26:06,840 --> 00:26:10,399 Speaker 1: You know, it's it's it's the house of Stanma. Someone 448 00:26:10,480 --> 00:26:13,719 Speaker 1: email you annoyed? Phil was annoyed? Yeah, Phil, something an 449 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:18,919 Speaker 1: email also annoyed? Is Diane Swank Chicago. No, no, come on, 450 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:22,399 Speaker 1: Diane Swank knows how sad I am. And we covered 451 00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 1: it a few weeks ago on the passing Diane of 452 00:26:25,320 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 1: the giant of a Chicago black Hawk, Stan Makeita. He 453 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:30,919 Speaker 1: meant a lot to the city of Chicago, didn't he? 454 00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:34,159 Speaker 1: He absolutely did. In fact, you know, I'm not a 455 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:36,720 Speaker 1: huge hockey fanel though I come from Detroit originally, as 456 00:26:36,760 --> 00:26:39,040 Speaker 1: they can imagine the hockey there as well. But one 457 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: of my colleagues a very long time ago, and all 458 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 1: my Mac equipment played a hockey puck and I called 459 00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:47,040 Speaker 1: him up and I said, you know it's still there 460 00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:51,040 Speaker 1: as my screen saver is the hockey stick with the 461 00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:52,879 Speaker 1: hockey puck. And he laughed and he said, that's just 462 00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:56,920 Speaker 1: because you just don't know how to remove it. Because 463 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:00,359 Speaker 1: I'm in Chicago. Particularly Stanmakeita with his contribute to the 464 00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:04,520 Speaker 1: deaf community across Illinois in America, Diane Swark, we're looking 465 00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 1: at an economy that is buoyant. John and Ivor to 466 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:13,200 Speaker 1: interview after interview today, saying it is about the economy. 467 00:27:13,280 --> 00:27:16,040 Speaker 1: Where are we migrating to a three percent run rate 468 00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,719 Speaker 1: or will it be lower? Well, we'll see I think 469 00:27:18,760 --> 00:27:20,600 Speaker 1: close to three percent in the second half the year. 470 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:24,200 Speaker 1: We'll move down a bit as we move into one 471 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 1: of the big hurdles out there is some of the 472 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 1: data that's coming out today and to see what's going 473 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,960 Speaker 1: on with housing. Housing has been a disappointment. We don't 474 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:32,879 Speaker 1: want it to be the coal the canary in the 475 00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,399 Speaker 1: coal mine. It has been a laggered We've seen a 476 00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:37,440 Speaker 1: lot of foreign investment pull out of some of the 477 00:27:37,520 --> 00:27:41,040 Speaker 1: major cities, which may be an opportunity for millennials trying 478 00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:43,280 Speaker 1: to buy and unable to get to some of the 479 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: price points that we've been seeing out there. But it 480 00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:48,840 Speaker 1: is something that's been a rocky road is the housing market. 481 00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:52,960 Speaker 1: That said, we still have momentum going into The other 482 00:27:53,040 --> 00:27:55,040 Speaker 1: question is what's going to happen on the trade front. 483 00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 1: We've seen some cooling of heads on the escalation of 484 00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,680 Speaker 1: trade traiffs. We hope that continues. That's very, very important 485 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:05,480 Speaker 1: because uncertainty regarding terrorists has already taken a toll on 486 00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:10,919 Speaker 1: some plants and retailers, warehouses, and transportation industry plans in 487 00:28:11,000 --> 00:28:13,960 Speaker 1: terms of their twenty nineteen spend budgets on what they 488 00:28:14,040 --> 00:28:16,199 Speaker 1: want to invest in the U. S. Economy. And at 489 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,280 Speaker 1: the moment, as you point out that the fundamentals of 490 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:21,040 Speaker 1: the U. S. Economy are really rather strong, and they're 491 00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,840 Speaker 1: set to say strong at least through the end of 492 00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 1: this year, the politics is becoming much more complex. And 493 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:28,400 Speaker 1: I'm just wondering how you think about the politics right now. 494 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 1: What is the channel that the politics can feed through 495 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,320 Speaker 1: and infect the strength of this U. S. Economy? Do 496 00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:37,159 Speaker 1: you think there is one? Certainly there is. I mean, 497 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,560 Speaker 1: politics is policy, the politics of uncertainty. That's one of 498 00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 1: the things that we're grappling with right now. I think 499 00:28:42,440 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: the economy um is very robust. We're getting an extra 500 00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:48,080 Speaker 1: boost from fiscal steamers. We may have to pay for 501 00:28:48,120 --> 00:28:50,240 Speaker 1: that later on, in fact, they think we will. But 502 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:53,520 Speaker 1: I never begrudge us a great economy or a better economy, 503 00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,760 Speaker 1: and that's something that we have to embrace. What I 504 00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:59,920 Speaker 1: worry about is the uncertainty surrounding what comes next, un 505 00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,760 Speaker 1: certainty about where policy will go, who will make the 506 00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:06,600 Speaker 1: decisions about policy, how those decisions will be executed. All 507 00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:10,080 Speaker 1: of those things do play into long term plans by companies. 508 00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,640 Speaker 1: And we're also short term oriented in terms of what 509 00:29:12,680 --> 00:29:15,880 Speaker 1: happens quarter to quarter. But over the longer term, we 510 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 1: have a world in which we've seen many populist leaders rise. 511 00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,480 Speaker 1: People look at Venezuela today, a true mass with a 512 00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: populist leader, and those leaders tend to think the invisible 513 00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 1: hand in the market belongs to them, and they choose 514 00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:32,240 Speaker 1: winners and losers. And the more that we see leaders, 515 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 1: whether it be in the developed or the developing world, 516 00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:38,600 Speaker 1: pick winners and losers in an economy, it undermines efficiency 517 00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:42,200 Speaker 1: and undermines those bets we have to make going forward, right, Diane, 518 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:45,080 Speaker 1: to get to our next section is Jackson All will 519 00:29:45,120 --> 00:29:49,479 Speaker 1: have value this year. Jackson All always has value. I 520 00:29:49,520 --> 00:29:52,800 Speaker 1: love Jackson Hall. I don't have to regoing there this year, um, 521 00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:55,160 Speaker 1: but I think it's an amazing place. It's one of 522 00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:58,680 Speaker 1: the few places where you see academics, you see policymakers 523 00:29:58,720 --> 00:30:01,959 Speaker 1: and the press altogether, and the opinions that go around 524 00:30:02,000 --> 00:30:04,240 Speaker 1: and the thought that comes out of that kind of 525 00:30:04,400 --> 00:30:08,200 Speaker 1: unique sort of mingling of thought is really important, just 526 00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:10,760 Speaker 1: on the trails and things like that. This year, I 527 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:13,280 Speaker 1: think the most important thing is actually to make less 528 00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:15,959 Speaker 1: news than more news. J Powell, as we know, is 529 00:30:15,960 --> 00:30:19,400 Speaker 1: sort of feeling little pressure right now, and now we 530 00:30:19,440 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 1: have to get him. He's gonna he's going to justify 531 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:24,920 Speaker 1: a rate high in September and later for one in December. 532 00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:27,440 Speaker 1: This is classic. We're gonna come back with Diane Swank 533 00:30:27,800 --> 00:30:30,840 Speaker 1: of Grant Thornton John. I love it. Now. It's live 534 00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:34,680 Speaker 1: or dead checks at all. Are you upset you're not 535 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,120 Speaker 1: going this year? I'm always upset. Is exactly as Dr 536 00:30:38,200 --> 00:30:42,959 Speaker 1: Swank said. The idea, the idea that you just calm 537 00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:49,200 Speaker 1: down and mingle is, I've had some treasured moments, Michael. 538 00:30:50,040 --> 00:30:52,240 Speaker 1: We're going to catch out with mine. I believe we will. Dan, 539 00:30:52,360 --> 00:30:54,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much. Dan swank with us today with 540 00:30:54,360 --> 00:30:57,600 Speaker 1: Grant Thornton and fiery discussion there on too many themes 541 00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: at the moment. What's some wonderful folks about what Mr 542 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,720 Speaker 1: Rubinstein is doing with peer to peer. It's not just 543 00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:22,000 Speaker 1: easy lay up conversations right now anything. For example with 544 00:31:22,080 --> 00:31:24,040 Speaker 1: Tim Cook of Apple, well, you know what, it's one 545 00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,840 Speaker 1: big victory lap and that is not the case of 546 00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:31,560 Speaker 1: your guests this week. I was amazed, David looking at 547 00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:36,640 Speaker 1: United Airlines stock the terrific performance over the last decade. 548 00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,440 Speaker 1: And yet for Mr Muni has Oscar mullions. This has 549 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 1: been a fractious era, hasn't it. It's been difficult for 550 00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:46,880 Speaker 1: him for a couple of reasons. When he first took 551 00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,640 Speaker 1: over the job, within a month he had a heart attack. 552 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:54,520 Speaker 1: He then had a heart transplant at the age of 553 00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:59,080 Speaker 1: fifty two. So he's a vegan, a marathon runner, and 554 00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:01,480 Speaker 1: all of a sudden he has a heart attack, and 555 00:32:01,480 --> 00:32:04,160 Speaker 1: not only a heart attack, a heart transplant. A week 556 00:32:04,200 --> 00:32:07,200 Speaker 1: after the transplant he's back at work and uh, so 557 00:32:07,240 --> 00:32:08,920 Speaker 1: he had to overcome that, but he also had the 558 00:32:09,000 --> 00:32:13,400 Speaker 1: challenges of of of people being dragged off. Someone being 559 00:32:13,440 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 1: dragged off the airline. You'll probably remember that, and that 560 00:32:16,640 --> 00:32:20,000 Speaker 1: was a very unfortunate incident that they now apologized for 561 00:32:20,080 --> 00:32:22,920 Speaker 1: and corrected your procedures. And also they had some animals 562 00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:26,920 Speaker 1: die on on board and they corrected procedures for that. 563 00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: So um, he's but the stock has done well, and 564 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,200 Speaker 1: as you know, all airlines have done reasonable, but United's 565 00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:35,240 Speaker 1: done particularly now. And I think Oscar is a really, 566 00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,880 Speaker 1: really good manager. He came from a complicated environment. He 567 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 1: was one of eight children, grew up in southern California, 568 00:32:42,360 --> 00:32:45,680 Speaker 1: was a long haired hippie um surfer by his own description, 569 00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:48,120 Speaker 1: got into Harvard but didn't think he would fit in 570 00:32:48,160 --> 00:32:52,000 Speaker 1: there in state at USC and the Pepperdine Law School eventually, 571 00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,600 Speaker 1: and then worked his way up at CSX and other places. 572 00:32:54,640 --> 00:32:57,360 Speaker 1: But then when an emergency of arose at United Airlines, 573 00:32:57,360 --> 00:32:59,720 Speaker 1: say came in as a board member to be the CEO, 574 00:32:59,840 --> 00:33:03,040 Speaker 1: and he had his health challenges. David, I can't wait 575 00:33:03,080 --> 00:33:06,960 Speaker 1: to hear this interview. I'm particularly interested, uh in what 576 00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:11,040 Speaker 1: Mr Mineo's view on support animals is sort of this 577 00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,560 Speaker 1: trend where everybody and their mom is bringing a peacock 578 00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,520 Speaker 1: on board to sit next to them and provide them comfort. 579 00:33:18,120 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 1: What do you say about that? Yes, he describes what 580 00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:23,680 Speaker 1: he describes how um many people are used to the 581 00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:25,800 Speaker 1: idea of bring a support animal on who might be 582 00:33:25,840 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 1: a dog, and some have brought on other animals, and 583 00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 1: one person brought on a peacock, which is hard to 584 00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,400 Speaker 1: see how that supports you. But the one that he 585 00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:37,720 Speaker 1: describes is probably the stroller brook. The camel's back is 586 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,680 Speaker 1: an emotional support animal had to have its own emotional 587 00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,560 Speaker 1: support animal on the plane. So the person brought on 588 00:33:43,800 --> 00:33:45,920 Speaker 1: it an emotional support animal, and that animal had its 589 00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 1: own emotional support animal. At that point they realized they 590 00:33:48,240 --> 00:33:51,480 Speaker 1: had a change of rule. This is amazing, you know, 591 00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:54,200 Speaker 1: And just so everybody knows, I've never done this stunt. 592 00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:57,760 Speaker 1: That Bill loves to travel. But the problem is Bloomberg 593 00:33:57,760 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 1: has me back Lisa in deep economy on United Airlines 594 00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:04,280 Speaker 1: and that Bill will only go up with Rubinstein in 595 00:34:04,360 --> 00:34:08,399 Speaker 1: first class. Well, I love that. I love the idea 596 00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:14,279 Speaker 1: of that. I mean, I guess, David, I haven't you know, 597 00:34:14,560 --> 00:34:16,880 Speaker 1: I've never actually seen an emotional support animal need its 598 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:18,880 Speaker 1: own emotional support animal. But I guess it's in a 599 00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:21,520 Speaker 1: growing problem in our country. Yeah, well, I mean I've 600 00:34:21,520 --> 00:34:25,040 Speaker 1: heard of actually animals being put on prozac. Actually, Um, 601 00:34:25,040 --> 00:34:27,400 Speaker 1: I knew of a couple who's dog was somewhat depressed 602 00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,880 Speaker 1: and they put the dog on prozac. So it's a 603 00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:36,680 Speaker 1: logical stuff to have Sie here to something. You're Maine, 604 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:39,640 Speaker 1: all right, David, I'm really curious to know, I mean, 605 00:34:39,680 --> 00:34:43,719 Speaker 1: going forward, what the big challenges are for him? And uh, 606 00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:45,919 Speaker 1: did he talk at all about what he's doing going 607 00:34:46,000 --> 00:34:47,640 Speaker 1: forward or has he done? Is he just enjoying the 608 00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:52,280 Speaker 1: sweet life? Well, the challenges that all airlines have is 609 00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:54,840 Speaker 1: that they they really depend on the price of oil 610 00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:58,000 Speaker 1: being a big factor. And airlines have made a lot 611 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,480 Speaker 1: of money in recent years because of oil sent them 612 00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,480 Speaker 1: low and therefore gas prices and low. As oil prices 613 00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:07,120 Speaker 1: come up, it's going to be more challenging. It's interesting 614 00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:09,640 Speaker 1: to think about this, all the things that airlines do 615 00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:13,359 Speaker 1: to get you to go on their planes. Um, you know, 616 00:35:13,560 --> 00:35:16,120 Speaker 1: Miles the bologist that you give you a mologe, clubs 617 00:35:16,440 --> 00:35:19,160 Speaker 1: of nice lounges, they might give you better food. In 618 00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 1: the end. The only thing that really matters, he says, 619 00:35:21,880 --> 00:35:25,799 Speaker 1: is price and availability of time or which. All the 620 00:35:25,800 --> 00:35:28,239 Speaker 1: other things are nice, but in the end, price is 621 00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,040 Speaker 1: the most important thing, and then you your availability. So 622 00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:33,279 Speaker 1: price is going to be a factor for all these 623 00:35:33,320 --> 00:35:36,480 Speaker 1: airlines because the soil prices go up, they don't have 624 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,560 Speaker 1: the ability to really cost that much. It's a bit 625 00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,120 Speaker 1: of a challenge, David. I've got to ask this question 626 00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:46,960 Speaker 1: of historic import and I say this folks with exceptional 627 00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:49,600 Speaker 1: interests in the fact that Mr Rubinstein one in two 628 00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,440 Speaker 1: years beyond Watergate, served as Chief council for the United 629 00:35:53,480 --> 00:35:59,160 Speaker 1: States Senate Judiciary Committees Subcommittee on Constitutional Amendments. David, that 630 00:35:59,200 --> 00:36:01,600 Speaker 1: means you and I have a collective memory of other 631 00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:07,160 Speaker 1: challenges for the nations. Simply, Attorney Rubinstein, your thoughts on 632 00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:12,640 Speaker 1: what this nation observed yesterday afternoon. Well, it was a 633 00:36:12,640 --> 00:36:15,719 Speaker 1: surprise to many people that both of these events happen 634 00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:18,800 Speaker 1: at the same time. Um as we learned from Watergate 635 00:36:18,920 --> 00:36:21,840 Speaker 1: other complicated things in our country's history. It's hard to 636 00:36:21,840 --> 00:36:24,080 Speaker 1: make a judgment on day one if that's what you 637 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:25,960 Speaker 1: think is going to happen on day one doesn't actually 638 00:36:26,000 --> 00:36:28,279 Speaker 1: happen on you know, through thirty days out or sixty 639 00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,800 Speaker 1: days out, so I wouldn't pre judge what's going to happen, 640 00:36:30,840 --> 00:36:34,120 Speaker 1: but it's clearly uh an episode of a teaching moment 641 00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 1: for younger people who haven't lived through these kind of things. 642 00:36:36,800 --> 00:36:38,719 Speaker 1: And I just wouldn't rush the judgment about what's going 643 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,880 Speaker 1: to happen, but it's clearly something that will have an 644 00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,439 Speaker 1: impact on the way our government operates. I just don't 645 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,279 Speaker 1: know what the outcome will be, and I hope it 646 00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,600 Speaker 1: will be the best for everybody. Well, David, can you 647 00:36:48,640 --> 00:36:51,040 Speaker 1: connect the dots from Washington, d C? To Wall Street? 648 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:53,600 Speaker 1: Given your experience in Carlisle and and as as a 649 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:56,600 Speaker 1: long time investor, you know, how when does it sort 650 00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,879 Speaker 1: to filter down to the economics of this country? Well, 651 00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:02,600 Speaker 1: why does this become more than just Washington d C. Noise? 652 00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,840 Speaker 1: As long as the stock market isn't pretty good shape, 653 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:10,080 Speaker 1: As long as the economy is growing at the pace 654 00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,839 Speaker 1: it is, I don't think you're going to see big 655 00:37:12,880 --> 00:37:16,480 Speaker 1: political problems in Washington, d C. Um if the stock 656 00:37:16,520 --> 00:37:19,640 Speaker 1: market would go down, the economy goes into a slower 657 00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,359 Speaker 1: growth or even low growth no growth mode, then you'll 658 00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:25,120 Speaker 1: see the politicians in Washington, I think doing different things 659 00:37:25,160 --> 00:37:28,440 Speaker 1: but right now, the economy is pretty good and we're 660 00:37:28,480 --> 00:37:31,799 Speaker 1: growing in a bigger clip than people expected. So I 661 00:37:31,840 --> 00:37:33,840 Speaker 1: just don't think you see it right now. But you know, 662 00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,520 Speaker 1: think things will change if if the economy falls before 663 00:37:37,640 --> 00:37:40,239 Speaker 1: the let's say, the November elections, they don't have some 664 00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,120 Speaker 1: impact and elections, but the economy is as good as 665 00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,280 Speaker 1: it is now, I'm not sure they'll have the impact 666 00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:46,600 Speaker 1: the events of Yes, you have the impact that that 667 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,880 Speaker 1: a weak economy would have. David, then bring us forward 668 00:37:49,920 --> 00:37:53,680 Speaker 1: to what that generation would be doing in Washington now, 669 00:37:53,719 --> 00:37:57,759 Speaker 1: And I think of the Great ab of Connecticut. I mean, 670 00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 1: they were. It was a different Capitol Hill during Watergate 671 00:38:02,760 --> 00:38:08,160 Speaker 1: and after Watergate, wasn't it. Yes? And then when I 672 00:38:08,200 --> 00:38:11,880 Speaker 1: worked in Capitol Hill in the late mid seventies, Democrats 673 00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:14,880 Speaker 1: and Republicans did talk to each other, and Democrats and 674 00:38:14,880 --> 00:38:18,400 Speaker 1: Republicans did work to get legislation together. Um, there have 675 00:38:18,480 --> 00:38:21,280 Speaker 1: been some signs of progress in that regard, though lately, 676 00:38:21,320 --> 00:38:24,720 Speaker 1: as you probably know, the appropriations process seems to be working. 677 00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:28,600 Speaker 1: We haven't had a full set of appropriations bills passed 678 00:38:28,640 --> 00:38:31,200 Speaker 1: in the regular order for about fifteen years or so. 679 00:38:31,719 --> 00:38:34,040 Speaker 1: Now it looks as if Congress might actually pass all 680 00:38:34,080 --> 00:38:36,759 Speaker 1: the appropriation bills on time. That would be good. I 681 00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,000 Speaker 1: started a program a few years ago, very modest and 682 00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:43,480 Speaker 1: impact probably on what I'm talking about. Democrats and Republicans together. 683 00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,759 Speaker 1: I host a dinner on Capitol Hill once a month 684 00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,440 Speaker 1: and bringing in a great American story and like Darris 685 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:52,720 Speaker 1: Karrent's Goodwinner, David McCullough interviewed them in front of members 686 00:38:52,760 --> 00:38:55,040 Speaker 1: of Congress, and members of Congress used that as a 687 00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:58,359 Speaker 1: way to socialize people from the opposite party. And they 688 00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:00,600 Speaker 1: tell me that today they are they never get a 689 00:39:00,680 --> 00:39:02,920 Speaker 1: chance to talk to you from the opposite party because 690 00:39:03,200 --> 00:39:05,880 Speaker 1: this situation is not very good for that now. And 691 00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,520 Speaker 1: this has no press there and no media, there's no fundraising. 692 00:39:08,800 --> 00:39:11,240 Speaker 1: So a lot of different things are being done in Washington, 693 00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:14,040 Speaker 1: kind of thing the parties together. Hopefully we'll be able 694 00:39:14,080 --> 00:39:17,760 Speaker 1: to have a more bipartisan approach in future years. David Rubinstein, 695 00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:20,440 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us today from his 696 00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:31,320 Speaker 1: travels in Switzerland. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. 697 00:39:31,680 --> 00:39:36,600 Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or 698 00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:41,080 Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom 699 00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:45,080 Speaker 1: Keene before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. 700 00:39:45,520 --> 00:39:46,600 Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio.