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Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five.

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Speaker 2: We are part of the.

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Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am live from my time of John Home Studio,

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Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Michael Padre might beff professional better Sigmon Hunter et Osymon.

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Speaker 3: Chad, how are we doing, brother?

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Speaker 1: I'm so glad we're starting the show because from the

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Speaker 1: time we got on fifteen minutes ago until literally the

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Speaker 1: second we went live, Matt Mitchell did not shut the

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Speaker 1: fuck out. Loved it, like fifteen straight minutes of talking.

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Speaker 1: What it was like listening to my mother in law

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Speaker 1: on hyperspeed, who can cover one thousand different topics in

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Speaker 1: the span of fifteen minutes without anyone even responding, making

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Speaker 1: eye contact, looking up, asking a question. I want to

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Speaker 1: have Matt Mitchell come on the show today to talk

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Speaker 1: about the bills. I know he's made a massive bet

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Speaker 1: on the bills. I'm a little nervous about it because

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Speaker 1: I know he likes to keep the shows tight and

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Speaker 1: that might add forty five fucking minutes.

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Speaker 2: To the show. So we'll have to see how we're.

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Speaker 1: Feeling when we get to the Chiefs Bills game to

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Speaker 1: see if we want to add Matt Mitchell and his

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Speaker 1: nonsense on the show. Today, Today's our Conference Championship Weekend

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Speaker 1: Best Bets episode. As we did last week, we will

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Speaker 1: not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games,

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Speaker 1: we are adding any other bets we like as well,

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Speaker 1: hopefully going to give folks more to look forward, root forward,

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Speaker 1: think about this weekend. We will also be including the

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Speaker 1: best options for our Foxhoul as well as our Tommy

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Speaker 1: John Big Balls bet of the week, and we will

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Speaker 1: just of course discuss Simon's the Biggest Bets play, Scoot Roulette,

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Speaker 1: all that jazz plus Today, I do want to have

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Speaker 1: a conversation about two very important topics. One hedging. I

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Speaker 1: mentioned this on Tuesday. Simon and I both gave out

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl matchup bets on this very show before the

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Speaker 1: season began. We each have one AFC team and one

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Speaker 1: NFC team from those bets still alive, so we got

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Speaker 1: a shot that may be true for a lot of you.

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Speaker 1: So how do we hedge if we want to? Do

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Speaker 1: you want to cash out? I got that question on Twitter. Also,

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Speaker 1: I want to talk about Super Bowl futures. There's four

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Speaker 1: teams left if you choose to get some value before

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Speaker 1: the big game.

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Speaker 2: Now is the last chance.

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Speaker 1: As we were last Sunday, we will be on Sunday

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Speaker 1: night after the end of the second game. This is

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Speaker 1: the Bills Chiefs this weekend. We will come on live

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Speaker 1: after that first look at Super Bowl review of what

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Speaker 1: happened during the day. Bets are rolling in lines or moving,

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Speaker 1: decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast, Boss

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Speaker 1: Colin I Heard likes to say.

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Speaker 4: There's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet

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Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets

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Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,

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Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to

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Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,

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Speaker 1: futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. I

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older.

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Speaker 1: In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,

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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right,

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Speaker 1: as always on Thursdays, we'd like to hear are the

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Speaker 1: wise guys that are responding to our Tuesday conversation. Fewer games,

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Speaker 1: but still lots of opinions. We are very influential. Lines

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Speaker 1: have already moved based in our conversations.

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Speaker 2: Get some opinions from the wise guys. Simon, let's do

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Speaker 2: shove calls.

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Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.

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Speaker 1: Rain telephone range, somebody saying maybe what you do man?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Interesting? Weeks shocked.

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Speaker 5: I thought it was gonna be everyone on our side,

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Speaker 5: to be honest with you, Chad. It felt like we're

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Speaker 5: going up against two very public dogs. But there is

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Speaker 5: some really smart money on the other side, and we

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Speaker 5: can start the commanders guys, I respect taking a position

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Speaker 5: on that side, and I think it really does come

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Speaker 5: down to Hurts his health. They think they are getting

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Speaker 5: a good number here because Hurts is not gonna do

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Speaker 5: what he can normally do, and I still think it's

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Speaker 5: being overrated. It's like they don't rely on Hurts. This

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Speaker 5: is not a team built around Hurts. This is the

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Speaker 5: team built rely.

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Speaker 3: On the running games.

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Speaker 5: So definitely a lot of arguments right now about that

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Speaker 5: with I'm being told that I'm over valuing Hurts and

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Speaker 5: not understanding his injury and they think they're getting a

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Speaker 5: great number, and the bo backed that up. Most bookmakers

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Speaker 5: I've talked to it's heavy, heavy, Like there was really

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Speaker 5: heavy early money on the Eagles. Now it's basically all Washington.

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Speaker 5: Like they're all taking a six. It's not even close

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Speaker 5: on the money line. It's all money is coming in

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Speaker 5: on the money line for this Washington team. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I can't dive to that, because that honestly makes you

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Speaker 5: feel even better, like the books needing a home favorite.

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Speaker 5: Like even when I'm talking to the bookmakers, they are

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Speaker 5: laughing about it because again, Chiefs are basically the same

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Speaker 5: exact spots as the Eagles. It's all bills money. All

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Speaker 5: the money coming in right now is bills. All the

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Speaker 5: teasers are on the bills. So yeah, if you're like

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Speaker 5: me and you talk to bookmakers and you go to

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Speaker 5: a lot of different books.

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Speaker 3: They're very happy right now in their position to be

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Speaker 3: in right.

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Speaker 5: They are in the position of they need two home

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Speaker 5: favorites to cover and win, and on the futures market,

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Speaker 5: the best outcome for them is the Chiefs. The Chiefs

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Speaker 5: have never I mean Evan could probably test this. I

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Speaker 5: don't think they ever got above plus seven hundred for

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Speaker 5: the entire season. So this is a team that basically

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Speaker 5: never got really high odds. On the flip side, if

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Speaker 5: the Commanders make it to the Super Bowl, they'll be crushed.

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Speaker 5: Like that's a position that you know, Joe Schmoe down

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Speaker 5: the street that bet them at one hundred to one

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Speaker 5: or one hundred and fifty to one can be able

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Speaker 5: to hedge, and professionals will build aheage. So it is

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Speaker 5: interesting talking to the perspective of the book makers and

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Speaker 5: the perspective of the professionals that you know, I get

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Speaker 5: why they love the Bills, I get why they love Commanders.

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Speaker 5: It's a coin flip type of game. But I do

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Speaker 5: think their numbers have overrated both those sides. So yeah,

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Speaker 5: I'm looking forward to diving to these games even more

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Speaker 5: chat because it does seem like, you know, coming into it.

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Speaker 5: I was a little nervous our positions, you know, me

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Speaker 5: and chat I don't love betting favorites, especially chalk favorites,

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Speaker 5: not chalk favorites. In this spot, we are definitely taking,

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Speaker 5: shockingly the underdog kind of favorites in the spot of

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Speaker 5: everyone's backing the dogs on the road and we are

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Speaker 5: actually the ones going off trail here and taking their

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Speaker 5: home favorites, which is pretty shocking position to be in.

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Speaker 2: All right, I love it.

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Speaker 1: That is a great tea out for what we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about, because it's Washington and Philadelphia. The number

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Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five is minus six. The total

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Speaker 1: is forty seven and a half. I have seen this

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Speaker 1: at six and a half in some spots. But guess what,

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Speaker 1: right off the bat.

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Speaker 2: Our Big Ball Bet of the Week.

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Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy

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Speaker 1: John has the support great game, start with great underwear.

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Speaker 1: Tommy John makes the greatest.

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Speaker 2: Man number six.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, tighter to six and a half already

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Speaker 1: there in some spots. I do want to give you

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Speaker 1: one funny story. As a Philly native, you can appreciate this.

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Speaker 1: So my younger son, my eighteen year old, has discovered

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Speaker 1: It's Always Sunny and he's been watching it constantly lately.

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Speaker 1: And if I'm in the same room with him at

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Speaker 1: the same time and like he's just watching it, I

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Speaker 1: end up sitting down and watching a few episodes and

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Speaker 1: like he's in the beginning, he's only in season two, right,

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Speaker 1: So it's going back.

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Speaker 2: Eighteen nineteen years.

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Speaker 1: And the episode that came on yesterday that I watched

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Speaker 1: with him, The Gang Gets Invincible.

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Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember.

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Speaker 1: This episode, of course, but this is the episode where

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Speaker 1: Mac and Dennis and de try out for the Eagles,

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Speaker 1: because it's right when the movie Invincible came out and

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Speaker 1: everybody in Philly, every fucking Philly scumbag decided they're Vince

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Speaker 1: Papali and they can go try out for the Eagles

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Speaker 1: and they're gonna make the Eagles.

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Speaker 3: Lies moving philos.

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Speaker 4: Come on, get on the bus bus. What the hell

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Speaker 4: are you talking about? The bus that takes you to

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Speaker 4: the field? Oh wait, I thought we were going to

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Speaker 4: be playing on the link.

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Speaker 5: You think, you dip shit's going to play on the

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Speaker 5: same field that champions play on.

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Speaker 3: Where are we going? We're going to a shitty high

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Speaker 3: school in Bucks County gets your ass on the bus,

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Speaker 3: straight to the bus, Straight to the bus.

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Speaker 1: So on the show Shoh, they have a tryout that

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Speaker 1: is inspired by Vince for Polly making it, and they say,

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Speaker 1: we got to do it because the New Kids on

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Speaker 1: the Block.

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Speaker 2: Movie about the guy making the team, you know, because

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Speaker 2: Mark Wahlberger wrote for and So.

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Speaker 1: So I'm watching it and in the middle of it,

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Speaker 1: I don't say anything about it. In the middle of it,

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Speaker 1: my kids says to me, didn't you like do something

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Speaker 1: about some dude who tried up for the Eagles. I'm like, yeah,

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Speaker 1: I wrote the book Invincible. It's on a shelf ten

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Speaker 1: feet from where you're sitting right now. I wrote it

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Speaker 1: when you were just born so we could put food

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Speaker 1: on the fucking table. I cannot believe you cannot even

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Speaker 1: remember how many times we've talked about this book and

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Speaker 1: you cannot remember that I wrote the book Invincible.

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Speaker 2: No, there's no respect in my house, Simon.

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Speaker 5: I love that you watch UP. So a great episode

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Speaker 5: cameo by Donovan McNabb. Yeah, Frank Reynold's getting stuck in

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Speaker 5: a back after I should say.

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Speaker 2: Oh my god.

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Speaker 1: On the Green Man and by the way, it wasn't

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Speaker 1: a Donovan McNabb cameo.

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Speaker 2: That's the joke, I know, because it's so good.

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Speaker 1: It's such a good show, Like I haven't watched it

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Speaker 1: in a while because, like I feel like I was

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Speaker 1: just caught up.

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Speaker 2: Man.

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Speaker 1: It is so funny. It makes me love Philly. You

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Speaker 1: know how much I love Philly. It makes me love

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Speaker 1: Philly even more.

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Speaker 6: I'm the trash man.

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Speaker 1: And I love the Eagles even more. This is our

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Speaker 1: big Balls. I kind of feel like it might need

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Speaker 1: to be our foxhole too. We might need to double

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Speaker 1: down here the same way we did with the chiefs

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Speaker 1: On Simon says and exact because if all this money

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Speaker 1: is starting to come in the Commanders, it really does

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Speaker 1: feel like we're starting to be alone here.

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Speaker 3: It's God damn it.

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Speaker 5: You get into this time of year and it's really

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Speaker 5: is opinion heavy, and guys try to just throw the

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Speaker 5: numbers out, which I would love to make fun of

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Speaker 5: them and everything like that.

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Speaker 3: But I do that too.

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Speaker 5: Like that Bill's spot last week, Chad was totally right

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Speaker 5: in his thinking of the Bills were not the better

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Speaker 5: team that that. You know, Raven's team were better on

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Speaker 5: paper in almost every metric, but I kept saying, you

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Speaker 5: had to throw the numbers out. And this is the

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Speaker 5: type of game where there's plenty of guys making their statement,

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Speaker 5: taking their position on this Washington team, and it has

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Speaker 5: the same view of it. They know that this is

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Speaker 5: not as good of a team as the Eagles on paper.

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Speaker 3: They know that this is, you.

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Speaker 5: Know, I don't want to say a fluke, but it

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Speaker 5: is a fluke. Come on, let's be real, people, this

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Speaker 5: is the sixth seed. We know how rare this is.

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Speaker 5: I think Evan had an.

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Speaker 2: Amazing See it was a rookie quarterback, right.

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Speaker 5: Evan had an amazing piece about this. How it's like this,

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Speaker 5: this has never happens. And obviously, as an Eagles fan,

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Speaker 5: it doesn't get much better. I'm my team is literally

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Speaker 5: a game away from beating a rookie quarterback six seed

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Speaker 5: at home to make the super Bowl. You literally can't

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Speaker 5: have an easier position. The Chiefs got to play the

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Speaker 5: freaking Bills and vice versa. Like that's that. That's usually

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Speaker 5: whe you're getting conference championship games. You don't usually play

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Speaker 5: a rookie quarterback with a team that is just happy

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Speaker 5: to be there, right, This insane run that they've been on,

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Speaker 5: and yeah, it's been interesting breaking down the game, and

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Speaker 5: especially this week, all I'm really doing is watching a film, honestly,

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Speaker 5: Like that's that's what's so fun. When there's just two

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Speaker 5: games left, you can really dive into both teams and

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Speaker 5: obviously if you listen to show a year, I mean,

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Speaker 5: me and Chatt have talked adnows them about how much

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Speaker 5: we love Daniels and this Washington team and when we

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Speaker 5: bet them all season, we love them. I mean, I've

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Speaker 5: talked so much about how impressed I was with him,

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Speaker 5: and you know, this is a game though, you have

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Speaker 5: to really go back to what me and Chat talked

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Speaker 5: about their two previous games against the Bucks and the

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Speaker 5: lines and why they did win those games. Yes, Daniels

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Speaker 5: played incredible. It was all about turnovers, right, That to

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Speaker 5: me is at the end of the day, that was

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Speaker 5: the key to those games. And we've seen this playoffs

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Speaker 5: really dictated by that. Now that's not shocking anybody, right,

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Speaker 5: that's how it is usually. But you've seen teams play

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Speaker 5: these incredibly conservative born offenses. Three out of the four

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Speaker 5: teams have done that style this playoffs and have gotten

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Speaker 5: to this position. Now you know Daniels doesn't play that

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Speaker 5: way right. He's a high risk, highvariance type of player.

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Speaker 5: He's willing to push the ball downfield in those fifty

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Speaker 5: to fifty balls, he's willing he does.

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Speaker 1: He makes a lot of bad throws, like he's a

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Speaker 1: really right and he's incredibly accurate. I don't mean to

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Speaker 1: cut you off, but like, he's incredibly accurate, but he

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Speaker 1: makes a lot of downfield throws that if you're watching

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Speaker 1: it on television, the camera pans and these are millimeters

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Speaker 1: away from picks.

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Speaker 5: And when I found my watching this film, especially going

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Speaker 5: back to the earlier games, is how cool he is

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Speaker 5: in the pocket.

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Speaker 3: And we talked about that.

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Speaker 5: We were like, eventually he's gonna take a hit and

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Speaker 5: he won't be so calm cool in the pocket like

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Speaker 5: he was, and he did. It might have been your

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Speaker 5: Guys Bears game where he basically got rocked. I don't

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Speaker 5: know if his ribs got broken or bruised, but you

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Speaker 5: saw there was a three four game period there where

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Speaker 5: it was different, Like you could see that he after

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Speaker 5: that hit, it was different. And now he's back to

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Speaker 5: what he was though once he healed up and got

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Speaker 5: that confidence back, he's back to what he was in

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Speaker 5: week three four, Like that really confidence the pocket just I.

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Speaker 3: Can't get over how above his age he does play.

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Speaker 5: I know a lot of people have talked about this

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Speaker 5: week where it's like, you know, he might be a

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Speaker 5: rookie on paper, but he has like it feels like

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Speaker 5: a year five betteran mentality. He's just so smart, makes

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Speaker 5: the right decisions when he needs to, and yeah, when

299
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Speaker 5: you break it down, he'll be the X factor in

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Speaker 5: this matchup. But this really, like me and Chat talking,

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Speaker 5: this number really should be seven to seven and a half,

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Speaker 5: Like the fact that you know Golf who's never done

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Speaker 5: anything in the playoffs, honestly, Like this is the guy

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Speaker 5: with the lines that you know he has choked with

305
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Speaker 5: them and you could say, well he got to superl

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Speaker 5: the rams.

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Speaker 3: I mean, come on, let's be serious here.

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Speaker 5: It's it's kind of interesting where the books got that number.

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Speaker 5: He up to nine and a half and now against

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Speaker 5: an Eagles team that to me is better on paper.

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Speaker 5: They're healthy defensively, they can have all the guys offensively,

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Speaker 5: They're only a six point.

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Speaker 3: Favorite against this Washington team.

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Speaker 5: So, I mean, me and Chat were talking about how

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Speaker 5: this is an inflated line for this Washington team, that

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Speaker 5: this has moved too much. That's what we're talking because

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Speaker 5: I had a lot of people ask about that. Why

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Speaker 5: we think this is peak value for Washington. Just breaking

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Speaker 5: it down very simple. You can see how much respect

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Speaker 5: the books giving them and vice versa. They're in a

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Speaker 5: happy position to be because right now, like I said,

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Speaker 5: they need the Eagles. All this money is pouring in

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Speaker 5: on Washington and you know, me and Chat, honestly, Chat,

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Speaker 5: I thought this would be six and a half seven

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Speaker 5: when we came on today's show, So you know the

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Speaker 5: fact that at night, like I've been checking it, there

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Speaker 5: is you see the resistance from professional betters, Like a

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Speaker 5: couple of books two hit six and a half quickly

329
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Speaker 5: bumped down to six. So it's clear that there is

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Speaker 5: some really smart money keeping this number down. And I

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Speaker 5: think it does come back to the hurts injury to me, Like,

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Speaker 5: that's why I get why the profession was saying that,

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Speaker 5: because on one side, you have a quarterback that is

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Speaker 5: playing at a high level and he is fully healthy.

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Speaker 5: On the flip side, you have a quarterback that the

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Speaker 5: professionals and public have questions about and he's got a

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Speaker 5: bad knee. So that to me makes sense about the

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Speaker 5: resistance on this number. But like I just said to me,

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Speaker 5: that's another reason for me and you, I feel we're

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Speaker 5: getting great value on this line where it's just too

341
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Speaker 5: much hype, too much love for a Washington team that

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Speaker 5: has a couple little bit of a fluky fluky wins here.

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Speaker 5: Now they're being praised as one of the best teams

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Speaker 5: in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: Also, going outside, it's it's just a different game for

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Speaker 1: everybody when you're playing outside. And I'm not saying the

347
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Speaker 1: Commanders can't handle weather, they're an out to our team.

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Speaker 1: But when you're playing indoors, you go forward on fourth

349
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Speaker 1: downs and you're going against a team that is playing

350
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Speaker 1: basically second and third stringers across the board defensively, and

351
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Speaker 1: you force some turnovers early in the game. You're just

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Speaker 1: playing from a different point of view, a different perspective.

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Speaker 1: This Philadelphia team, to me, I thought.

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Speaker 2: You nailed it. It's not really.

355
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Speaker 1: About Jalen Hurts. It's about the offensive line and the

356
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Speaker 1: defensive line. And again we talked about this on Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: Sam Cosmy not playing it's kind of a big deal

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Speaker 1: because the strength of this Philly defense is what they

359
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Speaker 1: can do within the interior of the defensive line. Jalen

360
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Speaker 1: Carter is amazing. He is like he's Aaron Donald esque

361
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Speaker 1: this year in his ability to control a game and

362
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Speaker 1: impact the game as an interior defensive lineman. So like

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Speaker 1: him coming up to God against Jadon Daniels is going

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Speaker 1: to be really really daunting. Especially in this kind of scenario.

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Speaker 1: You gotta like, yeah, you can't. You can't take that

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Speaker 1: factor away.

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Speaker 5: And we also talked about the Eagles have not played

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Speaker 5: their game yet, like they have not played a sound

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Speaker 5: perfect game like we were used to when they were

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Speaker 5: rolling mid season. On the flip side, Washington's coming off,

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Speaker 5: in my opinion, their best game of the season. Like

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Speaker 5: going back and watching that game, every little thing they

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Speaker 5: did kind of broke their way.

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Speaker 3: The only really dumb mistake they made.

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Speaker 5: Was that weird Mariota pitching trying to pitch the ball back.

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Speaker 5: And yeah, this is why I do give respect to

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Speaker 5: Dan Quinn. He went to Kingsbury whoever you went and

378
00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,080
Speaker 5: talked to me. He just said, we're not taking the

379
00:18:06,119 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 5: ball out of our best player's hand and losing this

380
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Speaker 5: game again. Like from now on, a fourth down no more. Bullshit,

381
00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:14,000
Speaker 5: dumb gimmick plays. We're gonna give the ball to Daniel's

382
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Speaker 5: only because that was the type of play where you're

383
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Speaker 5: just like, you're overthinking at Washington, what are you doing

384
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,119
Speaker 5: in this type of big moment? And you know, the

385
00:18:21,119 --> 00:18:24,879
Speaker 5: rest of that game so sound, and you know, like

386
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Speaker 5: you just said, this Eagles game is outdoors. I have

387
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Speaker 5: moved to the over. Originally I like the under in

388
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:33,960
Speaker 5: this matchup. I have flipped to the over, and just

389
00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,000
Speaker 5: because the number has moved too much and I basically

390
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Speaker 5: have this total forty eight and a half, so it's

391
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Speaker 5: only a point difference. Right right now is forty seven

392
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Speaker 5: and a half still showing valley to the over.

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Speaker 3: And it really is all about what we just talked about.

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Speaker 5: The weather now, if you live in the Northeast or

395
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Speaker 5: just an America in general, we're in a deep freeze

396
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Speaker 5: right now. It's absolutely awful outside. It's like ten degrees

397
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Speaker 5: in most places. It's gonna warm up by this week.

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Speaker 5: I don't know if you saw it, chat, it's supposed

399
00:18:56,960 --> 00:19:01,080
Speaker 5: to be in the mid forties come Sunday. Okay, no rain,

400
00:19:01,240 --> 00:19:03,760
Speaker 5: mid forties, Like you just said, both these teams are

401
00:19:03,760 --> 00:19:05,280
Speaker 5: from the same area. They're used to being out in

402
00:19:05,280 --> 00:19:07,159
Speaker 5: this cold. I don't think it's going to affect the

403
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Speaker 5: offenses like I did this past week with Eagles. I

404
00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:11,120
Speaker 5: don't think we'll see as many drops from the Eagles

405
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,400
Speaker 5: insane from this Washing team. I think they'll be fine

406
00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:16,880
Speaker 5: playing these elements. But like you just said, the difference

407
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Speaker 5: will be Washington just played in Florida and then an

408
00:19:20,240 --> 00:19:22,399
Speaker 5: indoor game against Detroit like, so, this will be the

409
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Speaker 5: first time they are out.

410
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Speaker 3: In the cold in the elements in the playoffs, and

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Speaker 3: you know, no.

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Speaker 2: Go ahead, Sorry, Noah, go ahead.

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Speaker 1: The one thing that worries me is that this Eagles

414
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:41,359
Speaker 1: team is incredibly reliant on big plays, specifically big plays

415
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Speaker 1: from Saquon. We saw it in the Rams game, two

416
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Speaker 1: huge touchdown runs. I was at that Eagles Commander's game

417
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Speaker 1: in November where they were down most of the game

418
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Speaker 1: and the only reason they won that game is because

419
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Speaker 1: there were two long Saquon touchdown runs. That's kind of

420
00:20:00,720 --> 00:20:03,280
Speaker 1: been the theme of the year. We talked about as

421
00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 1: rushing prop on Tuesday. It was one hundred and twenty

422
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Speaker 1: seven and a half by the time we were off

423
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Speaker 1: the show, and we talked about this on air. It

424
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Speaker 1: was already at one hundred and twenty nine and a half.

425
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Speaker 1: One other sports book, very public sports book, High Profile

426
00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 1: sports Book yesterday announced that Saquon's rushing total at one

427
00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty is the highest rushing total they've ever

428
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Speaker 1: had for a prop. Do we worry that this team

429
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Speaker 1: is too reliant on big plays? Do we think big

430
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Speaker 1: plays are predictive? And are they something that you can

431
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 1: count on or are they totally random and that skews

432
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Speaker 1: our perception of the Eagles?

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: I would say if you have the number one offensive

435
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Speaker 5: line of football and all Pro and aj Brown, then

436
00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,040
Speaker 5: all Pro and Saquon probably gonna get big plays.

437
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Speaker 3: I mean, that's just the honest truth. So I get

438
00:21:00,400 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 3: where you're coming from. Yeah.

439
00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,600
Speaker 5: Ideally, do I want the Eagles to drive the field

440
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,119
Speaker 5: and then all their red zone trips are touchdowns?

441
00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:08,040
Speaker 3: That'd be great.

442
00:21:08,040 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 5: But I mean people keep pointing to the fact that, oh,

443
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 5: the Eagles haven't been great in the red zone even

444
00:21:11,800 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 5: last week, right, they struggled in the red zone. No,

445
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 5: I don't really mind that. I don't worry about that

446
00:21:17,080 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 5: stuff too much. Like big plays can be inconsistent if

447
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,679
Speaker 5: it's all wide receiver that to me be scary, right

448
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:25,960
Speaker 5: if it was the Tyreek Hill type of deal where

449
00:21:25,960 --> 00:21:28,600
Speaker 5: it's like, well, if we don't have Tyreek Hill downfield,

450
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 5: then our offense kind of stalls, right, we need to

451
00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:32,680
Speaker 5: we rely on those big plays to move the ball downfield.

452
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 3: The Eagles aren't that.

453
00:21:34,080 --> 00:21:35,680
Speaker 5: I mean, they just the reason they have those big

454
00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 5: plays numbers is because they wear teams out and eventually,

455
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:40,920
Speaker 5: like we talked about, Saquon gets these teams in the

456
00:21:40,960 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 5: fourth quarter and that's when he breaks out for those

457
00:21:42,800 --> 00:21:46,080
Speaker 5: long runs. So you know the stats we gave out

458
00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 5: on Tuesday about this Washington run defense and how bad

459
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,160
Speaker 5: they are the second level, that just adds more fuel

460
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 5: to the fire of this team going to be hitting

461
00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:54,840
Speaker 5: big plays.

462
00:21:54,880 --> 00:21:56,600
Speaker 3: I mean, it lines up for this Eagles team.

463
00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 5: So I told you my biggest worry here is going

464
00:21:59,960 --> 00:22:02,760
Speaker 5: to be same thing we had when I was betting

465
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:04,680
Speaker 5: Washington against the Lions.

466
00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:06,359
Speaker 3: It's the fourth down regression.

467
00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 5: Like it's we're at we're at historical numbers at this

468
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 5: point with the fourth down with this Washington team, and

469
00:22:13,400 --> 00:22:15,680
Speaker 5: it did come to bite us, like even that Bucks game, right,

470
00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,280
Speaker 5: they had a couple failed fourth downs and that Lions game.

471
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 5: We just talked about Mariota play. There are opportunities for

472
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 5: this Eagles team to get stops. And you know dan Quinn,

473
00:22:24,359 --> 00:22:26,960
Speaker 5: he's getting tons of praise right now, well deserved if

474
00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,600
Speaker 5: he goes for it on his own thirty five on

475
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 5: fourth down, right, say they're down seven in the second

476
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:32,040
Speaker 5: quarter and he goes for it.

477
00:22:32,080 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 3: There the Eagle stop them. Now they're up fourteen. Well

478
00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 3: you look like.

479
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:38,000
Speaker 5: An idiot or will just be like, no, this is

480
00:22:38,040 --> 00:22:39,960
Speaker 5: who this guy's been all season. It's just been working.

481
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,360
Speaker 5: So that's that's gonna be interesting part here in this game.

482
00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 5: To me, it's gonna be another game where if Daniels

483
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,320
Speaker 5: hits these fourth downs, yeah, they can stay in this

484
00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 5: game easily. I Mean, we all know the track record

485
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:53,920
Speaker 5: of you know, divisional opponents keeping games close in the spot.

486
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,719
Speaker 5: But when you really dive into the numbers, this this

487
00:22:56,760 --> 00:22:59,280
Speaker 5: would really be an embarrassing loss for the Eagles. Like

488
00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 5: all honestly, you were getting a rookie quarterback on a

489
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 5: team that is basically going to rebuild season. The fact

490
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 5: they come into your home stadium and win this playoff

491
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:12,119
Speaker 5: game would be shocking just because across the line, like

492
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 5: we just talked about the d line matches up incredibly

493
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:18,520
Speaker 5: against this O line of Washington Egos offensive line even

494
00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,160
Speaker 5: more so, I mean second level. All of it lines

495
00:23:21,240 --> 00:23:23,840
Speaker 5: up really well. We give tons of credit though, to Washington.

496
00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:26,359
Speaker 5: Like Bobby Wagner, he was left for dead. This man's

497
00:23:26,400 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 5: come in and made a huge difference to this team.

498
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:31,000
Speaker 5: Zach Ertz, another guy left for dead, has come and

499
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,320
Speaker 5: made like veteran presidents on this Washington team has been

500
00:23:33,600 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 5: huge and made these few different. So they do have

501
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:37,400
Speaker 5: guys who've played in these big games, these big moments.

502
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 5: But this is an Eagles team that basically was in

503
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:41,320
Speaker 5: a Super Bowl, you know, a year and a half ago.

504
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 5: So it's like we've seen time and time again in sports,

505
00:23:44,920 --> 00:23:48,840
Speaker 5: teams usually have to go through growing pains, and you

506
00:23:48,880 --> 00:23:50,520
Speaker 5: expect Washington someday they'll.

507
00:23:50,280 --> 00:23:50,920
Speaker 3: Get to this level.

508
00:23:50,960 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 5: Some day, they won't make a super Bowl. It would

509
00:23:53,119 --> 00:23:54,879
Speaker 5: be shocking for them to get there this early, like

510
00:23:55,040 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 5: they haven't gone through the pain that almost all teams

511
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,200
Speaker 5: need to go through to get to that next level.

512
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,959
Speaker 5: Even the all God we talk about Patrick Mahomes, he

513
00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:05,080
Speaker 5: needed to lose to Brady at home in that AFC

514
00:24:05,160 --> 00:24:06,040
Speaker 5: Championship game.

515
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 3: Then he needed to lose the Super Bowl.

516
00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:09,120
Speaker 5: I mean he did win it obviously against fort Niners,

517
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:10,760
Speaker 5: but then he need to lose against Brady in the

518
00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 5: Super Bowl eventually, like these these great quarterbacks all go

519
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,119
Speaker 5: through it. We think Jane Dams will eventually be one

520
00:24:16,119 --> 00:24:18,400
Speaker 5: of these greats, but he has not gone through any

521
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:18,880
Speaker 5: pain yet.

522
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,120
Speaker 3: Right, It's all been good. That's why you watch TV.

523
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 5: Everyone's just loving this team, hype him up, making him

524
00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:25,439
Speaker 5: a top five quarterback in this league.

525
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,320
Speaker 3: I mean, I still can't get over with Chad. There's

526
00:24:27,320 --> 00:24:29,080
Speaker 3: sixteen to one next year in Super Bowl.

527
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,479
Speaker 5: Futures, this Commanders team, So it just it's all peaking

528
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:35,040
Speaker 5: right now. They're the darling of the NFL. They beat

529
00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 5: the one seed, a team that you know, people if

530
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 5: are unbeatable. And on the flip side of this, the

531
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,120
Speaker 5: Eagles team, people have not believed them all the way.

532
00:24:42,160 --> 00:24:43,879
Speaker 5: I mean, you can go through it. People picked the

533
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,240
Speaker 5: Rams to upset them just last week, like that was

534
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 5: a big bet by a lot of people. And you know,

535
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 5: when you really got dive into it, Eagles probably should

536
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 5: have won against Green Bay by double digits. Should it

537
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:56,359
Speaker 5: beat last week by double digits? Right, they just didn't

538
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 5: think that things break their way. So it's it's a

539
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 5: unique opportunity to have team like the Eagles be underrated

540
00:25:01,560 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 5: even though they've been one of the top three, top

541
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:05,919
Speaker 5: four best teams in football all season.

542
00:25:06,040 --> 00:25:07,960
Speaker 3: So it is a unique position.

543
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,119
Speaker 5: Like me and Chav talked about this is it feels

544
00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 5: too easy. That's my fear here, Chad, where it's like,

545
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 5: right now, I'm able to get you know, in a teaser,

546
00:25:15,680 --> 00:25:17,280
Speaker 5: i can get them down just to win this game.

547
00:25:17,400 --> 00:25:19,840
Speaker 5: And I'm just shocked this has stayed under seven. And

548
00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 5: I do think it all comes back through the hurts,

549
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 5: injury and the public and professional money coming in so

550
00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,800
Speaker 5: heavy on this commander's team where I'm shocked to see

551
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 5: how much money is poured in on this team. Like

552
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:30,520
Speaker 5: I really do think by the time we do the

553
00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 5: show it'll be more balanced. It's still heavy towards commanders.

554
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: Jake Elliott, do your fucking job. The extra points. This

555
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,840
Speaker 1: line is six, right. We felt the last week it

556
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:49,400
Speaker 1: pushed on six because Jake Elliott was missing extra points.

557
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:55,120
Speaker 2: Jake Elliott, do your job. It's all we're asking.

558
00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 1: Simon, did you know that inside man, there are two wolves.

559
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:09,240
Speaker 1: One wolf represents darkness and despair, but the other wolf

560
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 1: is relaxed and luxuriating in resplendent comfort. Ah, because that

561
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:22,200
Speaker 1: wolf is decked out head to paw in the flexible.

562
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 2: Breathability of Tommy John.

563
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:28,120
Speaker 1: You can only feed one wolf, Simon, So feed that

564
00:26:28,359 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: comfortable wolf. The geniuses at Tommy John have mastered the

565
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:38,480
Speaker 1: art of comfort. To see what thousands of five star

566
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:43,440
Speaker 1: reviewers are raving about. Howell with comfort at a wardrobe

567
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 1: filled with Tommy John, Simon, Why will you be wearing

568
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 1: more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?

569
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:51,880
Speaker 3: Because comfort is king?

570
00:26:52,320 --> 00:27:00,639
Speaker 2: Ah, it's my wolf howl.

571
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,800
Speaker 1: Right now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash

572
00:27:03,800 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: favorites and get you twenty fiers off your first order.

573
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:09,520
Speaker 1: Save Tommy John, save twenty five percent of Tommy John

574
00:27:09,760 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites.

575
00:27:15,800 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: I went, I went off script on Matt's read there.

576
00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: I hope he's okay with it. What did you think

577
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:22,359
Speaker 1: of my howl?

578
00:27:23,600 --> 00:27:25,280
Speaker 3: I don't know what you're going for there? That was

579
00:27:25,280 --> 00:27:30,920
Speaker 3: definitely a wolf hel though. Oh all right?

580
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,800
Speaker 1: Buffalo, Kansas City, Kansas City minus one and a half.

581
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,920
Speaker 1: The totals forty seven and a half. This was Simon says,

582
00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs on the Money line is our exec decision

583
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:43,400
Speaker 1: taken a minute to get some traction. It's it's moving

584
00:27:43,440 --> 00:27:47,880
Speaker 1: to two in some spots. You know, we'll have Matt

585
00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:51,199
Speaker 1: Mitchell come on if he can promise to, you know,

586
00:27:51,320 --> 00:27:52,359
Speaker 1: keep it, keep it tight.

587
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 2: We're trying to keep the.

588
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: Podcast less than four hours today because he came on

589
00:27:58,840 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 1: before the show.

590
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 2: I think this is why he's a little hot today,

591
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 2: because he.

592
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,040
Speaker 1: Said he bet an inordinate amount of money, an obscene

593
00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 1: amount of money.

594
00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 2: On the Buffalo Bills. We obviously are both on the

595
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 2: Chiefs here.

596
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: I would like Matt Mitchell to come on as the

597
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 1: resident Bills obsessive.

598
00:28:19,400 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 2: He's an excellent better.

599
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 1: He's not just a mediocre podcast producer and a Bill's freak.

600
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 1: He's an excellent better. So, Matt, you want to explain

601
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,879
Speaker 1: yourself while you're going against the hosts of the show.

602
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:34,320
Speaker 6: WHI Chad, it's nice to be on. I hope you're well.

603
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 6: I appreciate all the listeners and the outpouring of support

604
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:42,720
Speaker 6: following your incoherent and asinine breakdown of your Chiefs Love

605
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 6: last episode. I've realized that since the infamous thirteen seconds

606
00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:53,480
Speaker 6: game three years ago. I have done a very good

607
00:28:53,560 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 6: job of locking my heart away and developing a thick

608
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 6: candy shell so that I'm not as absolutely crushed by

609
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:05,720
Speaker 6: a loss in the playoffs as I was after that game,

610
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 6: so that the Bengals loss in the playoffs meant very little. Also,

611
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:11,920
Speaker 6: they just lost regular style, which is what I always

612
00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:15,640
Speaker 6: ask of them. Even last week, I felt more relief

613
00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 6: than joy in a victory that was very hard fought,

614
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,320
Speaker 6: in one that I was consumed with dread leading up

615
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 6: to it. And I'm realizing, Chad, that I'm not able

616
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 6: to hit those those the high highs, the true mania

617
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 6: of an incredible victory, because I've been holding back and

618
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 6: shielding myself and the time has finally come. I used

619
00:29:38,320 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 6: to to dance like everyone's watching and love like I'll

620
00:29:41,480 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 6: always get hurt, But now I'm ready. I'm ready to

621
00:29:44,520 --> 00:29:46,960
Speaker 6: get hurt, and I'm going to go into this game

622
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 6: filled with optimism and excitement ruthlessness that the Bills will

623
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 6: leave Kansas City victorious. And I'm putting my money where

624
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 6: my mouth is, and I'm disgusted with myself that I'd

625
00:29:59,600 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 6: be saying this out loud to so many people, But

626
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,320
Speaker 6: I'm in. I'm fucking all in. I've heard enough. It's

627
00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 6: time for men of action.

628
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 3: To do just that. So go Bills.

629
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 1: That is a end of a rom com worthy soliloquy

630
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:21,440
Speaker 1: about your love and your willingness to expose yourself and

631
00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: be vulnerable this weekend. I believe it was Bob Scucci

632
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: who once said, when all hope is gone, all that's

633
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 1: left is relief. Yeah, it might be something you were

634
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: feeling at some point, and I'm glad that you are

635
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:43,200
Speaker 1: getting back to finding euphoria enjoy as a sports fan.

636
00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 1: My Kansas City Chiefs take which I know what you're

637
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,720
Speaker 1: referring to, and listeners know what you're referring to, which

638
00:30:50,760 --> 00:30:53,959
Speaker 1: you went after me for when I couldn't defend myself.

639
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 1: You dropped it into the podcast on Tuesday. Is I'm

640
00:30:57,200 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 1: rooting for history. I'm not saying I'm rooting for the

641
00:31:00,200 --> 00:31:03,720
Speaker 1: thing that's never happened, which is to beat the Buffalo Bills,

642
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:07,440
Speaker 1: because the Buffalo Bills get beaten by everybody. My point was,

643
00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 1: I want to see the three pet That's what I'm

644
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:15,400
Speaker 1: rooting for. Matt Mitchell. I'm rooting for historical dominance of

645
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,200
Speaker 1: dynastic proportions.

646
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 2: The fucking Buffalo.

647
00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 6: Bills have been playing fucking football for longer than there's

648
00:31:22,360 --> 00:31:25,080
Speaker 6: been a Super Bowl, and they've have not won a

649
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 6: Super Bowl.

650
00:31:26,040 --> 00:31:27,800
Speaker 3: That is pretty goddamn historic.

651
00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,920
Speaker 6: All you gotta say, Chad, all you gotta do is

652
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 6: go into that fucking microphone and say, you know what,

653
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 6: I'm rooting for the team that never loses, to not lose.

654
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:39,959
Speaker 6: I'm rooting for the team with the better coach. I'm

655
00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 6: rooting for the best quarterback to beat the second best quarterback.

656
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 6: I'm rooting for the team that is favored to win

657
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 6: the game at home.

658
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 1: Here, I'm rooting for the team that has the opportunity

659
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: to win three straight Super Bowls. I'm rooting for the

660
00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:58,240
Speaker 1: team that has a quarterback that has the opportunity to

661
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: set standards that have never before been seen in the

662
00:32:02,240 --> 00:32:05,600
Speaker 1: history of the NFL, which has been around longer than

663
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:09,320
Speaker 1: the Buffalo fucking Bills. So that's what I'm rooting for.

664
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 1: The See, I have the bigger picture, I think, much

665
00:32:12,760 --> 00:32:15,360
Speaker 1: bigger than you do, Matt. I'm not thinking myopically. I'm

666
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 1: not thinking, Oh, how does this all impact the tiny,

667
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: cute little paris of Western New York franchise Buffalo Bills.

668
00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 1: I'm thinking, how does this impact all of fandom? How

669
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: does this impact sports history? Where does this put Patrick

670
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:36,760
Speaker 1: Mahomes in the legendary status of the greatest athletes and

671
00:32:36,840 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: achievers who have ever lived. I'm not thinking, Oh, does

672
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 1: the team that always wins?

673
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 2: Are they going to win? That's not how I'm thinking

674
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 2: about it.

675
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:45,280
Speaker 4: Chad.

676
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 6: Okay, listeners, I had to do a visualization exercise on Sunday.

677
00:32:48,840 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 6: I want you to do another one again. Unless you're driving,

678
00:32:51,400 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 6: keep your eyes open. Unless you're driving, close your eyes.

679
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:57,480
Speaker 6: I want you to picture Chadnleman walking into a beautiful,

680
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:02,080
Speaker 6: glittering casino. He's walking through the casino. He's going to

681
00:33:02,240 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 6: the high roller room. He's walking through it. He's saying, no, no,

682
00:33:06,520 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 6: you know what, I need to go to the to

683
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:10,040
Speaker 6: the lowest limits. I want to see the biggest losers.

684
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 6: I want to join them. He goes over to the

685
00:33:11,640 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 6: biggest losers shoe a blackjack and he sits down and

686
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:18,960
Speaker 6: they say how much how much do you want? He says, oh,

687
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:21,959
Speaker 6: no chips for me. I'm here rooting for the dealer.

688
00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:24,600
Speaker 6: And he has a little pennant that says go casino.

689
00:33:25,280 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 6: That's what you're that's the argument you are making, go

690
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 6: house money.

691
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 1: Matt and I have been at each other all morning

692
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: because I asked a simple question in one of our

693
00:33:34,960 --> 00:33:40,400
Speaker 1: slack channels. Simon, We're on the Chiefs, Go Chiefs. We

694
00:33:40,440 --> 00:33:43,920
Speaker 1: love the Chiefs. Why am I worried about the Chiefs?

695
00:33:44,760 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 3: If we still have a producer?

696
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 5: You got to cut that last thirty minutes unbelievable back

697
00:33:49,600 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 5: and forth by Chat and Matt and Mitchell.

698
00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: Holy shit. Yeah.

699
00:33:53,760 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 5: My only question in Matt Mitchell is if you know

700
00:33:55,920 --> 00:33:58,240
Speaker 5: what you're doing here. You're supposed to bet the Chiefs

701
00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 5: so you can actually win money when your team loses,

702
00:34:00,960 --> 00:34:03,920
Speaker 5: rather than you lose money and you are depressed for

703
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:04,960
Speaker 5: a year when your team.

704
00:34:04,760 --> 00:34:08,759
Speaker 1: Loses and nobody in your beautiful Milwaukee neighborhood gets ice cream.

705
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:10,399
Speaker 3: Jus, you have no money left.

706
00:34:10,600 --> 00:34:13,840
Speaker 6: Right Imagine one guy rooting for the fucking casino and

707
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:17,799
Speaker 6: another guy with the most cowardly, fucking approach in history.

708
00:34:17,840 --> 00:34:20,440
Speaker 6: That's where we have this drop, which I'll play right now.

709
00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 2: Simon Hunter, professional coward.

710
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:27,800
Speaker 6: I would never hedge emotionally or otherwise, but I wish

711
00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:28,520
Speaker 6: you the best of luck.

712
00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 3: No, I'm smart.

713
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,600
Speaker 5: I actually bet on my favorite team in August, unlike

714
00:34:31,680 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 5: Matt Mitchell here who bets on his favorite team.

715
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:34,560
Speaker 3: Beat you a lot.

716
00:34:34,840 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 2: Now, this is great.

717
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't sleep, I don't need I do nothing

718
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,000
Speaker 5: to think of you, Kansas City Chiefs.

719
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: I just can't.

720
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:45,000
Speaker 5: I keep looking for ways to fade this Chiefs team

721
00:34:45,080 --> 00:34:48,200
Speaker 5: chat and we're here. We can't do There's no reason

722
00:34:48,320 --> 00:34:50,800
Speaker 5: not to bet this number. It's low. It's a great

723
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,879
Speaker 5: matchup for them, and we talked about this Bill's team.

724
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,319
Speaker 5: It's been an incredible season. This is a team that

725
00:34:56,360 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 5: had thirty million dead calf for Stefan Dicks. It's seventy

726
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,320
Speaker 5: million in dead cap overall on this roster this season.

727
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:05,360
Speaker 3: People, that's fucking insane.

728
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 5: They're literally paying seventy million to the guys who are

729
00:35:07,120 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 5: arming on this roster and they are in the finals,

730
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:12,840
Speaker 5: the AFC Finals. It's I can't believe it. So this

731
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:15,400
Speaker 5: is a team that's overachieved all because they have the

732
00:35:15,480 --> 00:35:18,239
Speaker 5: mutant that is Josh Allen, the greatest quarterbacks to play

733
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 5: this game. Can you get over the hump, Chad? That's

734
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 5: what everyone's betting on them. The public has the same

735
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 5: exact view as Matt Mitchell, like, they're coming in heavy

736
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:28,680
Speaker 5: on this Bills team, not because they're sick of the Chiefs,

737
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 5: but they think this is the destiny, this is the

738
00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 5: year of Josh Allen, and they're betting them hard. I

739
00:35:33,760 --> 00:35:35,840
Speaker 5: mean even in the action app I'm looking at right now,

740
00:35:36,680 --> 00:35:38,280
Speaker 5: seventy percent of the bets, same percent.

741
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:38,719
Speaker 3: Of the money. Right now.

742
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,640
Speaker 5: We're on the Buffalo Bills on the road in Kansas City.

743
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 5: This is a team that was perfect at home, but

744
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 5: they struggled on the road this season. And the struggle

745
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,399
Speaker 5: on the road was their defense. It wasn't once again,

746
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:55,239
Speaker 5: wasn't Josh Allen was the defense. So yeah, it's it's

747
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,799
Speaker 5: interesting that people are so confidently betting a bad number

748
00:35:57,800 --> 00:35:59,600
Speaker 5: on this Bills team, where it's like this should be

749
00:35:59,640 --> 00:36:02,239
Speaker 5: two and a have three. They're happy to line up

750
00:36:02,280 --> 00:36:04,000
Speaker 5: and take a bad number one and a half or two.

751
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:08,760
Speaker 5: So yeah, like I said, bookmakers are happy. I'm extremely happy.

752
00:36:08,800 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 5: It's a rare position to be in chat. We're basically

753
00:36:10,800 --> 00:36:13,399
Speaker 5: on a Chiefs team that the public is doubting, and

754
00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 5: it's the exact scenario that happened last year. The Chiefs,

755
00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,719
Speaker 5: people forget, were a five or four point dog at

756
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:22,920
Speaker 5: the Ravens last year, they got up to five and

757
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:25,360
Speaker 5: a half before kickoff, five and a half dog. No

758
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,319
Speaker 5: one was betting the Chiefs that line was running up.

759
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:30,160
Speaker 5: Even the actual happen. Believe it was less than twenty

760
00:36:30,200 --> 00:36:31,919
Speaker 5: percent of the bet twenty percent money on the Chiefs

761
00:36:31,920 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 5: in that exact spot. They rolled that Ravens team. And

762
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 5: that's that's literally what this exact scenary is playing out

763
00:36:37,480 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 5: right here. People are doubting, not believing the Chiefs team,

764
00:36:40,280 --> 00:36:42,799
Speaker 5: betting the other side. And yeah, you can wave your

765
00:36:42,800 --> 00:36:45,160
Speaker 5: hands and try to act like no one believes in

766
00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 5: us if you're the Bills people do, that's just not true.

767
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 5: You guys are the darling favor right now of the league,

768
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 5: just like the Commanders. So I love our position that

769
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 5: we're in. The Chiefs to me or the better team

770
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,759
Speaker 5: across the board in every position except the strongest part

771
00:36:58,760 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 5: of this Bills team obviously is on that offensive line,

772
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,719
Speaker 5: and that to me is our only fear here, Chad.

773
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,680
Speaker 5: If the Chiefs can't stop the run, we're done here.

774
00:37:06,719 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 5: Because the Bills have a vault. They're a different team

775
00:37:08,800 --> 00:37:10,960
Speaker 5: now where they play smart, they don't turn over. If

776
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 5: we can get a lead with this Chiefs team have

777
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,359
Speaker 5: to make Josh Allen drop back a ton of throw

778
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 5: the ball a lot. That to me is how the

779
00:37:17,280 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 5: Chiefs can come out on top of this one because

780
00:37:19,120 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 5: we know the weakness of this Bills team.

781
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:21,040
Speaker 3: They don't have.

782
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,760
Speaker 5: Receivers, like they got rid of their two top dogs,

783
00:37:23,800 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 5: and he's just thrown in nameless guys, right, I mean

784
00:37:25,960 --> 00:37:28,800
Speaker 5: Amari Cooper who they traded for. He's been non existent

785
00:37:28,880 --> 00:37:31,399
Speaker 5: since they got them. Like this just it's not great.

786
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 5: And you know, like I said, incredible run by this

787
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:39,399
Speaker 5: this Bills team, but they've run into a juggernaut that's

788
00:37:39,440 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 5: not going to lose this game. Like the Ravens kind

789
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:43,600
Speaker 5: of lost that game last week. Let's let's be honest here,

790
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:46,520
Speaker 5: the Ravens beat themselves. I'd be shocked if the Chiefs

791
00:37:46,520 --> 00:37:49,439
Speaker 5: beat themselves in this matchup at home. And we've seen

792
00:37:49,480 --> 00:37:52,080
Speaker 5: the stats from Evan when it's cold below foy degrees

793
00:37:52,080 --> 00:37:55,200
Speaker 5: in arrowhead in the playoffs, this is when you want

794
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 5: to back Mahomes. He just lives up to these moments

795
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,919
Speaker 5: in the exact spots. So yeah, I really can't believe

796
00:38:00,920 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 5: we're only getting We're getting minus one and a half

797
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 5: with the Chiefs at home in the spot and no

798
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 5: one's betting them. It's it really is shocking right now,

799
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,920
Speaker 5: look into that metric and seeing that we are on

800
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,160
Speaker 5: the team that no one believes in and their home favorite.

801
00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 5: So yeah, obvious, you can tell you Jack feeling pretty

802
00:38:13,640 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 5: confident about this Chief side.

803
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,760
Speaker 1: There is a better according to Patrick Everson, who placed

804
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:24,600
Speaker 1: a one point three million dollar bet on the Chiefs

805
00:38:25,320 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 1: to win the game. Just on the money line, I'll

806
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: reiterate Patrick Mahomes in November, December, January, when it's forty

807
00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 1: degrees or less, twenty three and two straight up.

808
00:38:40,280 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: He's won twenty in a row.

809
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 1: His last loss was to Tom Brady in two thousand

810
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:52,520
Speaker 1: and nineteen. The only fear here is Josh Allen, and

811
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,960
Speaker 1: you know he's so good at avoiding sacks and the

812
00:38:57,080 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 1: Chiefs pressure as much as George Carloft has been amazing

813
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 1: on the edge recently, their pressure is Chris Jones on

814
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:07,440
Speaker 1: the inside unless he is moving himself to the edges.

815
00:39:07,760 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: But when Josh Allen gets flushed, he is very hard

816
00:39:12,040 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 1: to sack, like so difficult to put into plays behind

817
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:17,760
Speaker 1: the sticks.

818
00:39:18,280 --> 00:39:18,480
Speaker 2: Right.

819
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:21,719
Speaker 1: That to me is like the biggest fears every time

820
00:39:21,760 --> 00:39:25,080
Speaker 1: he rolls out, I get a little nervous when I'm

821
00:39:25,080 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 1: betting against Josh Allen.

822
00:39:28,239 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: But I think to your.

823
00:39:29,000 --> 00:39:33,200
Speaker 1: Point, teams are not the same when they play the

824
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:36,480
Speaker 1: Chiefs in the playoffs that they are throughout the year

825
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:41,800
Speaker 1: because they're not thinking, oh, I have many many series

826
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:45,240
Speaker 1: in which to make up for any mistakes. Every series

827
00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 1: is so critical. You get tighter when you think you

828
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:51,920
Speaker 1: can't make a mistake, and everyone believes they cannot make

829
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 1: a mistake against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. He's that magical,

830
00:39:56,920 --> 00:40:00,800
Speaker 1: he's that awesome. I think that has a real impact

831
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 1: in these games that just doesn't get accounted for in

832
00:40:04,680 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 1: the spread.

833
00:40:05,239 --> 00:40:07,400
Speaker 2: I don't know if you feel the same way I do.

834
00:40:07,480 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 5: And I also think that's some of the reason why

835
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,120
Speaker 5: I love the under here, where it's like both these

836
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 5: teams are going to play super slow and conservative and

837
00:40:14,040 --> 00:40:15,359
Speaker 5: just eat the clock up because they have the same

838
00:40:15,440 --> 00:40:18,160
Speaker 5: view we have. Keep the offense off the field like that.

839
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 5: That's how you're gonna win this game. Right now, let

840
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:22,800
Speaker 5: the other team get in their rhythm. So coming into it,

841
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 5: I think both game plans are gonna be run heavy,

842
00:40:24,760 --> 00:40:27,680
Speaker 5: and you know, we talk a little bit about Matt Milano.

843
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,239
Speaker 5: That's a big X factor for this Bill's defense. I

844
00:40:31,280 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 5: know that yesterday he was limited with a hamstring, so

845
00:40:35,280 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 5: you know, great that it's not a knee. Terrible that

846
00:40:37,880 --> 00:40:39,799
Speaker 5: it's a hamstring, Like, you don't want a guy to

847
00:40:39,880 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 5: have hamstring issues heading into a game that, like you

848
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 5: just said, it's gonna be below forty degrees. That's not ideal,

849
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 5: especially for such an important defender. That's you know, an

850
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:52,520
Speaker 5: older guy Matt Milano in this spot. So yeah, that's

851
00:40:53,360 --> 00:40:56,440
Speaker 5: it's I was really trying to be on the Bills, honestly,

852
00:40:56,520 --> 00:40:58,239
Speaker 5: Jack coming into it, because I just I love this

853
00:40:58,280 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 5: team and their story.

854
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: But to me, it was all about the number, and

855
00:41:02,280 --> 00:41:03,239
Speaker 3: it never got to where I.

856
00:41:03,160 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 5: Felt comfortable that this would be a good Bills line

857
00:41:05,600 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 5: to bet, Like, it never got to two and a

858
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 5: half three.

859
00:41:07,960 --> 00:41:09,360
Speaker 3: And it's what we just talked about.

860
00:41:09,400 --> 00:41:12,520
Speaker 5: They are beloved right now by the public and there's

861
00:41:12,600 --> 00:41:14,919
Speaker 5: plenty of smart professional money out there coming to heavy

862
00:41:14,960 --> 00:41:17,279
Speaker 5: on them as well. So I'm not trying to have

863
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,719
Speaker 5: people ever think this year you're getting very unique opportunity.

864
00:41:19,719 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 5: You have two home favorites that the public doesn't really

865
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:24,560
Speaker 5: believe in, and you're getting a good number on both

866
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:24,839
Speaker 5: of them.

867
00:41:24,880 --> 00:41:27,319
Speaker 3: So I like this position we're in.

868
00:41:27,400 --> 00:41:29,960
Speaker 5: It doesn't feel like it was you know in other

869
00:41:30,040 --> 00:41:32,839
Speaker 5: years where everyone's just hammering these number one and number

870
00:41:32,840 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 5: two seeds. This is a unique season where people don't

871
00:41:35,640 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 5: believe in this one or two seed. People believe in

872
00:41:37,560 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 5: the road dogs, and the money you can follow it.

873
00:41:41,080 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 5: It says that they believe in them. So it's gonna

874
00:41:43,160 --> 00:41:45,279
Speaker 5: be interesting by game time. See if it comes on

875
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:48,000
Speaker 5: the other side. If you know, the professional public money

876
00:41:48,000 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 5: does show up on the Chiefs and the Eagles, because

877
00:41:49,640 --> 00:41:52,560
Speaker 5: right now, this early money, it is, without a doubt,

878
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:55,240
Speaker 5: all these road dogs.

879
00:41:55,239 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 1: So interesting how people's perceptions can be changed by how

880
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 1: brilliant just the quarterbacks are. Right, Josh Allen and Jaden

881
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:10,040
Speaker 1: Daniels have been much better players this year than Patrick

882
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 1: Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, and it has put us in

883
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:15,319
Speaker 1: a position. You're one hundred percent right. I don't think

884
00:42:15,320 --> 00:42:19,040
Speaker 1: we've ever had an experience where we both like a

885
00:42:19,239 --> 00:42:23,239
Speaker 1: home favorite that are the higher seeds that none of

886
00:42:23,280 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 1: the public wants to bet. It's it's such a it's

887
00:42:29,200 --> 00:42:32,360
Speaker 1: a different position for us entirely. But like you said,

888
00:42:32,640 --> 00:42:37,080
Speaker 1: we're all over the Eagles. We're all over the Chiefs.

889
00:42:37,120 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 1: Really important stuff. By the way, one more injury report.

890
00:42:41,520 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 1: Taylor Rapp safety did not practice for the Bills yesterday.

891
00:42:46,280 --> 00:42:49,520
Speaker 1: He's got that hip injury that could be significant. You

892
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,759
Speaker 1: mentioned Milano. He was limited in practice. We saw what

893
00:42:52,800 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 1: a difference he made for the Bills against the Ravens

894
00:42:55,120 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 1: last week. Christian Benford, the cornerback, had a concussion last week,

895
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:02,200
Speaker 1: was in practice, which could be a good sign because

896
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:04,200
Speaker 1: it means he got back on the field. It's one

897
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 1: of the first steps you have to make to get

898
00:43:05,960 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 1: through the concussion protocol. So those are the latest updates.

899
00:43:09,040 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 1: No real injuries of note for the Chiefs. Okay to

900
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 1: Hedge or not to Hedge. So I got these questions

901
00:43:15,920 --> 00:43:20,000
Speaker 1: on Twitter before the season began. We each gave out

902
00:43:20,040 --> 00:43:24,400
Speaker 1: future bets we liked, including super Bowl matchups. Mine was

903
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:29,200
Speaker 1: amongst many Chiefs versus Eagles in the Super Bowl. Every

904
00:43:29,280 --> 00:43:31,279
Speaker 1: year I do a matchup round robin in which I

905
00:43:31,320 --> 00:43:33,880
Speaker 1: bet the teams whose preseason.

906
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 2: Super Bowl odds are twelve to one or shorter.

907
00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:37,839
Speaker 1: It's a bet that Evan tipped me off to in

908
00:43:37,840 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 1: his preseason story last year. Heading into last year, it

909
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:46,440
Speaker 1: was nine of ten matchups had been from teams that

910
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:49,040
Speaker 1: had odds of twelve to win or shorter. Last year

911
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:52,239
Speaker 1: it happened again. The Chiefs and Eagles were both in

912
00:43:52,280 --> 00:43:54,840
Speaker 1: this group. Their odds to meet in the Super Bowl preseason,

913
00:43:54,880 --> 00:43:57,080
Speaker 1: we're twenty eight to one. I bet that I have

914
00:43:57,200 --> 00:44:01,799
Speaker 1: that existing before we go to Simons u whose bet

915
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:05,120
Speaker 1: is even more exciting because people like to say, no,

916
00:44:05,200 --> 00:44:07,560
Speaker 1: you didn't really do that, Gifford.

917
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,240
Speaker 2: Let's go to the video evidence.

918
00:44:11,840 --> 00:44:15,600
Speaker 5: My finals, Chiefs winning over the Eagles once again in

919
00:44:15,640 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 5: the Super Bowl.

920
00:44:16,200 --> 00:44:17,680
Speaker 3: If to win three straight and.

921
00:44:17,640 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 5: You can get that right now at fifty five to

922
00:44:19,640 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 5: one on bet three sixty five Chiefs beating the Eagles

923
00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 5: in the Super Bowl, I.

924
00:44:23,760 --> 00:44:24,439
Speaker 3: Just think it's there.

925
00:44:24,520 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 5: They're both going to be the one seeds if they're

926
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:30,480
Speaker 5: both at home. Like if the Lines got to come

927
00:44:30,520 --> 00:44:33,480
Speaker 5: to Philadelphia in mid January, if Purdy has to come

928
00:44:33,520 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 5: to Philadelphia in mid January, I just think the Eagles

929
00:44:36,920 --> 00:44:38,839
Speaker 5: should win that game. The only hesitation I just talked

930
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:40,360
Speaker 5: about is the Rams, Like I think of all the

931
00:44:40,400 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 5: guys that wouldn't be phased about that kind of environment

932
00:44:43,480 --> 00:44:46,239
Speaker 5: is Stafford. But yeah, I have the Eagles winning it.

933
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:48,680
Speaker 5: Then versus the Chiefs, the Chiefs winning the Eagles in

934
00:44:48,680 --> 00:44:51,399
Speaker 5: the Super Bowl. It's just Chad knows, I love bett

935
00:44:51,400 --> 00:44:53,200
Speaker 5: on history. I want to be part of history. It's

936
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,640
Speaker 5: just it's one of my favorite things, and this is

937
00:44:55,680 --> 00:44:58,480
Speaker 5: the team to do it. Like, It's just the Super

938
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 5: Bowl team always gets a little weaker. I mean we've

939
00:45:00,120 --> 00:45:01,279
Speaker 5: seen it right now with the forty nine ers, like

940
00:45:01,360 --> 00:45:03,359
Speaker 5: all that drama they're having to deal with. Yeah, yeah,

941
00:45:03,400 --> 00:45:05,400
Speaker 5: the Chiefs just aren't that team. And they don't they

942
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 5: don't lose any coordinators. Like, it's just all there. So

943
00:45:08,560 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 5: the boring bet I know, but Chiefs one of the

944
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:12,399
Speaker 5: Super Bowl. That's where I'm going.

945
00:45:12,480 --> 00:45:16,239
Speaker 1: Chad, all right, it's so fun to go back and

946
00:45:16,320 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 1: listen to that because you were spot on about so

947
00:45:19,880 --> 00:45:23,839
Speaker 1: many things, not just the Chiefs like and their opportunity,

948
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:26,080
Speaker 1: but the way you nailed the Eagles after they had

949
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: come off a down year, talking about the Rams having

950
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 1: to go to Philly being off the Niners.

951
00:45:31,120 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 2: Brilliant, brilliant stuff. We've all seen your ticket.

952
00:45:34,640 --> 00:45:37,560
Speaker 1: We know it is a significant, significant amount of money.

953
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 1: And that's just one ticket you have. I know you've

954
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 1: got several on this particular matchup.

955
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:45,200
Speaker 2: Chiefs beating the Eagles.

956
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 1: A couple of our listeners sent me notes. I'm going

957
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:54,120
Speaker 1: to read the excerpts of one because it is representative

958
00:45:54,160 --> 00:45:56,600
Speaker 1: of everything I'm currently sitting on a Super Bowl futures

959
00:45:56,880 --> 00:46:00,600
Speaker 1: Chiefs beating Eagles and Eagles beating Chiefs. Each one unit

960
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 1: bets Chiefs win, pays out fifty six units. As you noted, Simon,

961
00:46:05,760 --> 00:46:08,399
Speaker 1: we headed at fifty five to one, Eagles pays out

962
00:46:08,440 --> 00:46:12,560
Speaker 1: sixty seven. Book is offering a cash out of twenty

963
00:46:12,600 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 1: point five units. I've thought about letting the Eagles game

964
00:46:16,800 --> 00:46:19,640
Speaker 1: ride and if they win, betting twenty eight units on

965
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 1: the bills to cover. Also have considered cashing. What strategies

966
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 1: would you guys consider? So basically that covers everything, right,

967
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 1: That covers a cash out. You and I and Evan

968
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,240
Speaker 1: talked a little bit about this on Tuesday after the show,

969
00:46:33,719 --> 00:46:35,879
Speaker 1: talking about waiting to see what happens in the first

970
00:46:35,960 --> 00:46:38,960
Speaker 1: game and if the Eagles win, hedging the second game,

971
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 1: how will you be handling any hedging this weekend?

972
00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 5: Yeah, so off the top, everyone should know every person

973
00:46:47,960 --> 00:46:50,080
Speaker 5: is unique and as their own life going on with

974
00:46:50,160 --> 00:46:51,920
Speaker 5: your own shit going on, your own life, and you

975
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:54,520
Speaker 5: need to plan accordingly with these type of bets. If

976
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:56,840
Speaker 5: you are in that position that you need this fucking money.

977
00:46:57,080 --> 00:47:00,600
Speaker 5: If you need this money, cash it out. Go ahead,

978
00:47:00,960 --> 00:47:03,120
Speaker 5: who cares cash it out? Take that money you can.

979
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:05,920
Speaker 5: You made a great bet. The books are begging you

980
00:47:05,960 --> 00:47:08,919
Speaker 5: to take their money because they are terrified that you're

981
00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 5: going to hit this bet and they don't want to

982
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:12,600
Speaker 5: pay it out. So if you do need the money,

983
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 5: cash it out. If you're building a bank roll and

984
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,319
Speaker 5: you don't have any money to hedge it.

985
00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:18,600
Speaker 3: You're in that type of spot, cash it out. There's

986
00:47:18,640 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 3: nothing wrong with that. Now, someone like me, there is

987
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 3: no reason to cash out. Like I'm of course gonna

988
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:25,480
Speaker 3: let this ride.

989
00:47:25,520 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 5: And it's from the perspective of it's a bet I trusted,

990
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:32,200
Speaker 5: and it basically came all to exactly what I predicted.

991
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:34,200
Speaker 5: These two teams would be at home in this position

992
00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 5: to win. The math is telling you this is a

993
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,640
Speaker 5: good spot to be in, and I'm going to a

994
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,799
Speaker 5: unique spot where I really only bet on these two

995
00:47:42,840 --> 00:47:45,960
Speaker 5: teams for Super Bowl futures like I had. I think

996
00:47:46,000 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 5: I had two different bets on the Rams from when

997
00:47:48,320 --> 00:47:50,720
Speaker 5: I thought it was really stupid, but I basically thought

998
00:47:51,080 --> 00:47:53,520
Speaker 5: they were open up cap space to have a big signing.

999
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:56,480
Speaker 5: They were actually paying out Aaron Donald to retire, So

1000
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:59,400
Speaker 5: that was a futures bet I did make on the Rams.

1001
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 5: But other than that, my two heaviest bets for what

1002
00:48:01,880 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 5: people just are in the clip where basically the Chiefs

1003
00:48:03,640 --> 00:48:05,880
Speaker 5: and the Eagles. And now I'm in the spot where

1004
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:08,800
Speaker 5: could I hedge on the Commanders. Yes, I think Commanders

1005
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,240
Speaker 5: right now are plus seven hundred to make the Super Bowl.

1006
00:48:11,600 --> 00:48:13,719
Speaker 5: But I wouldn't do that, especially if you're anyone.

1007
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:15,280
Speaker 3: Else out there. This is not the spot to hedge.

1008
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 5: I think this guy talking about head you in the

1009
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,360
Speaker 5: next game, that's the spot. Like, if you want to

1010
00:48:19,400 --> 00:48:22,280
Speaker 5: take a position to hedge out, do that on the Bills.

1011
00:48:22,320 --> 00:48:25,080
Speaker 5: You can either do it on their Super Bowl future.

1012
00:48:25,160 --> 00:48:27,200
Speaker 5: You can either do it taking their number.

1013
00:48:28,120 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 3: You could. I mean, if you're going really balls, you

1014
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 3: throw them in a seven and a half up to

1015
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:33,520
Speaker 3: seven and a half, put them with the Eagles.

1016
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:35,719
Speaker 5: Take the Eagles down to a pick because again it's

1017
00:48:35,880 --> 00:48:37,839
Speaker 5: historical ve Eagles don't win in this spot. It's it's

1018
00:48:37,840 --> 00:48:40,399
Speaker 5: a really good spot to be playing a rookie at home.

1019
00:48:40,480 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 5: So there's a bunch of different ways you're going to

1020
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:46,919
Speaker 5: approach it. I honestly think if you're able to people,

1021
00:48:46,920 --> 00:48:49,480
Speaker 5: I'd let a ride like you made a great bet.

1022
00:48:50,200 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 5: That's why the books are trying to give you a

1023
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,759
Speaker 5: cash out, Like I'd never cash out, because if the

1024
00:48:53,800 --> 00:48:56,720
Speaker 5: books are offering you a cash out one, they're gonna

1025
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:58,879
Speaker 5: under they're goning to give you a bad price. They're

1026
00:48:58,880 --> 00:49:00,160
Speaker 5: not going to pay you out with a should be

1027
00:49:00,160 --> 00:49:02,880
Speaker 5: paying you. And it also just shows that they're terrified

1028
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:04,839
Speaker 5: because they don't want to cash out people like that

1029
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,800
Speaker 5: is not the business they're in. They're in the business

1030
00:49:07,800 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 5: of taking your money. So the factor even giving you

1031
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 5: that big of an option shows how terrified they are.

1032
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 5: So yeah, I would pat myself on the back people

1033
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:16,960
Speaker 5: out there, if you had the balls to take it.

1034
00:49:17,000 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 5: In August, I have fifty five to one or fifty

1035
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:20,799
Speaker 5: to one, and I'd let it ride. But if you

1036
00:49:20,800 --> 00:49:22,920
Speaker 5: want to take a position hedge out of it, I

1037
00:49:22,920 --> 00:49:23,960
Speaker 5: wouldn't do on the Eagles game.

1038
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:25,120
Speaker 3: I would do on the Bills game.

1039
00:49:24,960 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 5: Because to me, that's that's the game that's truly a

1040
00:49:27,680 --> 00:49:29,960
Speaker 5: coin flip, that Bills game, like none of us will

1041
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 5: be shocked Sunday night if the Bills fell off that.

1042
00:49:32,040 --> 00:49:35,760
Speaker 2: Upset Simon Hunter, professional coward.

1043
00:49:36,360 --> 00:49:38,759
Speaker 5: I would be shocked if the Commanders put it off.

1044
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 5: So to me, that's where the value is right now

1045
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:43,239
Speaker 5: if you're trying to hedge it, and obviously if it

1046
00:49:43,280 --> 00:49:46,400
Speaker 5: gets to the Super Bowl, even more even easier to

1047
00:49:46,400 --> 00:49:48,799
Speaker 5: take a position. You just basically will put half the

1048
00:49:48,840 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 5: money on the Eagles because they will be an underdog either.

1049
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 5: I don't know if this is true, but from my lines,

1050
00:49:54,680 --> 00:49:56,480
Speaker 5: I do have the Eagles an underdog to the Chiefs

1051
00:49:56,560 --> 00:49:59,239
Speaker 5: or the Bills. I'm positive the books will follow suit

1052
00:49:59,360 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 5: like they're just that's just the way it usually is.

1053
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:03,800
Speaker 5: Usually AFC is going to get the respect in this

1054
00:50:03,840 --> 00:50:06,680
Speaker 5: type of spot. So yeah, if you do want to

1055
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:08,880
Speaker 5: be patient, I think you'll get a nice opportunity in

1056
00:50:08,920 --> 00:50:11,839
Speaker 5: the super Bowl. But yeah, chat film film pretty good.

1057
00:50:11,880 --> 00:50:15,680
Speaker 5: I basically have somewhere around five K invested in the

1058
00:50:15,719 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 5: Chiefs to beat the Eagles to win three orndred k.

1059
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:19,440
Speaker 5: And obviously people know I'm an Eagles fan. I have

1060
00:50:19,760 --> 00:50:22,400
Speaker 5: a ton of money invested in the egos super Bowl future.

1061
00:50:22,520 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 5: So yeah, no bets, I've sent the Commanders. No one

1062
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 5: saw this coming, and I was I talked about coming

1063
00:50:28,640 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 5: to the year. I did doubt the Bills did not

1064
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 5: see this type of run happening, So have no money invested,

1065
00:50:33,360 --> 00:50:35,000
Speaker 5: and I wouldn't need to hedge out if I had

1066
00:50:35,040 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 5: to in that game against the Chiefs. But like I

1067
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 5: just said, I'm gonna let it ride. I'm coffing in

1068
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:41,640
Speaker 5: our position and I love our bets right now.

1069
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:43,160
Speaker 1: So if you want to let if you want to

1070
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 1: hedge in that second game, if you've got the Eagles

1071
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,280
Speaker 1: and the Eagles make it, and you want to hedge

1072
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,600
Speaker 1: on the on the Bills in that second game in

1073
00:50:49,640 --> 00:50:52,400
Speaker 1: a matchup because you have the Chiefs against the Eagles

1074
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:54,839
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl. Evan is also really good at

1075
00:50:54,840 --> 00:50:56,160
Speaker 1: this stuff, So maybe when we can bring them in

1076
00:50:56,160 --> 00:50:58,279
Speaker 1: in a second, I'm going to ask them his opinion too.

1077
00:50:59,320 --> 00:51:02,719
Speaker 1: What's your normal hedging strategy? Do you bet half a

1078
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:05,759
Speaker 1: unit on the team so you can recover, you know,

1079
00:51:05,960 --> 00:51:08,480
Speaker 1: half of the winnings that you would have otherwise had.

1080
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:10,480
Speaker 1: Even if you bet half a unit, you're still going

1081
00:51:10,560 --> 00:51:13,640
Speaker 1: to be way ahead on whatever you put in for

1082
00:51:13,719 --> 00:51:17,359
Speaker 1: the futures. Most people aren't putting in a full unit

1083
00:51:17,680 --> 00:51:20,560
Speaker 1: when they're betting on huge futures at long odds. So

1084
00:51:21,640 --> 00:51:25,960
Speaker 1: what would you as an amount tend to bet if

1085
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,280
Speaker 1: you were to hedge in this second game.

1086
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 5: Once again, it's tough because it's about your confident level.

1087
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,400
Speaker 5: I mean, you have a fifty five to one ticket,

1088
00:51:33,480 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 5: so I would view it as a minimum five to

1089
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:40,440
Speaker 5: eight units on the bills, like you want, you want

1090
00:51:40,480 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 5: to make some good money here, and even if that

1091
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 5: doesn't hit, you still leave yourself a huge ticket.

1092
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:47,760
Speaker 3: For that Super Bowl future. So it all depends your position.

1093
00:51:47,840 --> 00:51:49,879
Speaker 5: Like I said, if if if you do just want

1094
00:51:49,880 --> 00:51:52,680
Speaker 5: to recoup your your losses, you could do what you'd

1095
00:51:52,719 --> 00:51:54,440
Speaker 5: just talked about. You could just put one unit on it,

1096
00:51:54,719 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 5: like play it safe because you are confident, but you

1097
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 5: want to make sure you least get that money back

1098
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 5: to you invested the way back in August. But to me,

1099
00:52:01,440 --> 00:52:03,839
Speaker 5: I'm all about turning profits. So at minimum, I would

1100
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,080
Speaker 5: say two to three units on the bills because you

1101
00:52:06,120 --> 00:52:08,840
Speaker 5: want to make some money on which is a great play.

1102
00:52:08,920 --> 00:52:10,920
Speaker 3: It's like you deserve that reward. You deserve to get

1103
00:52:10,920 --> 00:52:11,880
Speaker 3: a nice kickback for that.

1104
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:13,640
Speaker 5: And that's why I'm saying with people that don't have

1105
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:15,799
Speaker 5: that that type of money put down or they're not

1106
00:52:15,840 --> 00:52:18,720
Speaker 5: confident it hit that cash out button, like you're getting

1107
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 5: paid out a nice a nice penny here for a

1108
00:52:21,200 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 5: bet you made. So there's just so many ways you

1109
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:26,759
Speaker 5: can attack it. But yeah, for me personally, I want

1110
00:52:26,760 --> 00:52:28,319
Speaker 5: to I want to get some money back that I

1111
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:30,799
Speaker 5: made good, good bet on, So I would definitely go

1112
00:52:31,440 --> 00:52:34,000
Speaker 5: three to four five units on it, just so I

1113
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 5: can get a nice hit with even if I do

1114
00:52:36,160 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 5: lose that bet, And like we've done before, you can

1115
00:52:38,719 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 5: find a middle That's why you know, it sucks that

1116
00:52:41,760 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 5: it's dropped back down from two, but if this got

1117
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 5: up to two and a half three, you're getting a

1118
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:47,719
Speaker 5: really nice chance to hit a middle with that Bill's number.

1119
00:52:47,719 --> 00:52:49,960
Speaker 5: Which again, that's that's a position we want to be,

1120
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:51,840
Speaker 5: and we want to we want to have a middle spot.

1121
00:52:51,960 --> 00:52:53,480
Speaker 3: But I think the books are wise to it. They're

1122
00:52:53,480 --> 00:52:54,720
Speaker 3: not really going above that two.

1123
00:52:54,640 --> 00:53:00,439
Speaker 1: Number super Bowl futures Egos plus one seventy five plus

1124
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:04,400
Speaker 1: two twenty Bills plus two thirty Commanders plus seven fifty

1125
00:53:05,080 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 1: any worthwhile investment here. I was leaning to play in

1126
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:13,560
Speaker 1: the Chiefs at plus two twenty just because obviously we

1127
00:53:13,719 --> 00:53:16,399
Speaker 1: like them to get to the super Bowl. They're not

1128
00:53:16,440 --> 00:53:19,720
Speaker 1: going to have those kind of odds when they get there,

1129
00:53:20,120 --> 00:53:21,319
Speaker 1: I'd probably like them.

1130
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:23,799
Speaker 2: To win the Super Bowl. So I feel like I'm

1131
00:53:23,840 --> 00:53:27,319
Speaker 2: getting the best number on the Chiefs over the that

1132
00:53:27,360 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 2: I'm going to get over the next two and a

1133
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:30,200
Speaker 2: half weeks.

1134
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:31,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1135
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 5: So basically the way to go about this is if

1136
00:53:35,120 --> 00:53:37,239
Speaker 5: you have no futures, if you're just looking for an

1137
00:53:37,239 --> 00:53:38,520
Speaker 5: opinion on who we think is going to win the

1138
00:53:38,520 --> 00:53:38,919
Speaker 5: Super Bowl.

1139
00:53:38,920 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 3: I think me and Chat are both in agreeans we

1140
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:42,719
Speaker 3: think it's gonna be the Chiefs. Like it just it

1141
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:43,680
Speaker 3: fills lined up for them.

1142
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 5: They have the perfect team put together right now, the

1143
00:53:45,680 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 5: way they play, even if it is the Eagles of Commanders,

1144
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:50,439
Speaker 5: I think they match up well against both of them.

1145
00:53:50,520 --> 00:53:53,000
Speaker 3: And you know you can shop around right now.

1146
00:53:53,120 --> 00:53:54,640
Speaker 5: Are there are a couple of plus two thirties, a

1147
00:53:54,640 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 5: couple plus two twenties out there on them to win

1148
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:00,440
Speaker 5: the Super Bowl at this point, the Chiefs, it's basically

1149
00:54:00,560 --> 00:54:01,920
Speaker 5: you get in a line with their money line as

1150
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 5: if they were a four to four and a half

1151
00:54:03,080 --> 00:54:05,279
Speaker 5: point dog. So that to me is great value on

1152
00:54:05,320 --> 00:54:07,600
Speaker 5: the Bills and the Chiefs. Like, if you like the

1153
00:54:07,680 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 5: AFC side, you're getting great value because I just told

1154
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 5: you my model has the Eagles as the dog against

1155
00:54:14,120 --> 00:54:16,640
Speaker 5: the Bills and the Chiefs. So in my view of it,

1156
00:54:16,680 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 5: if you're trying to play that type of number two

1157
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:22,160
Speaker 5: to one on the Chiefs or the Bills against the Eagles,

1158
00:54:22,520 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 5: that's really really nice future to get. So that's one

1159
00:54:27,040 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 5: way to play it. But like I said, I'm already

1160
00:54:28,640 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 5: having invested, so I'm not doing anything. But in my opinion,

1161
00:54:30,719 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 5: I think there's still value on this Chiefs team, Like

1162
00:54:33,360 --> 00:54:35,400
Speaker 5: you know, you're getting them as as if they're a

1163
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:37,000
Speaker 5: four and a half dog against the Eagles, where we

1164
00:54:37,080 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 5: know they're most likely going to be a favorite. So

1165
00:54:39,920 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 5: to me, that's where my eyes go. Right I saw

1166
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,160
Speaker 5: that number, I was like, oh my god, it's above

1167
00:54:44,160 --> 00:54:46,000
Speaker 5: two hundred and again it's just because the Bills and

1168
00:54:46,440 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 5: the Chiefs are playing each other, but still that's tremendous

1169
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,799
Speaker 5: value against an Eagles team that you know, we all

1170
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 5: know they're just the favorite just because it's it's more

1171
00:54:54,040 --> 00:54:56,160
Speaker 5: likely they get there, not because they're better than the

1172
00:54:56,200 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 5: Bills of the Chiefs. So that that to me, is

1173
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:00,719
Speaker 5: a horrible number to bet. If you're taking Eagles, the

1174
00:55:00,760 --> 00:55:02,760
Speaker 5: way to go is either take the Chiefs or the Bills.

1175
00:55:04,080 --> 00:55:07,920
Speaker 1: Excellent excellent questions for our users and breakdown. Want to

1176
00:55:07,960 --> 00:55:12,000
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1185
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1186
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Speaker 2: It's a no brainer.

1187
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1194
00:56:18,560 --> 00:56:22,160
Speaker 1: I know the answer to this Simon's biggest bets.

1195
00:56:23,040 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 2: Chiefs, chiefs, chiefs, God.

1196
00:56:26,000 --> 00:56:29,960
Speaker 4: Damn it, God, damn it, damn it.

1197
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 2: Eagles, Eagles, Eagles, am I right.

1198
00:56:34,360 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, And I love the tolls too on the on

1199
00:56:36,680 --> 00:56:40,720
Speaker 5: the Eagles over. On the Chiefs under, I believe Chiefs

1200
00:56:40,719 --> 00:56:43,240
Speaker 5: are Chiefs under is still forty seven and a half.

1201
00:56:43,760 --> 00:56:45,839
Speaker 5: Still like the value there still tick that under and

1202
00:56:46,200 --> 00:56:48,480
Speaker 5: the Eagles over. I could see it moving as they

1203
00:56:48,480 --> 00:56:50,040
Speaker 5: get closer to the game. Right now, it's still forty

1204
00:56:50,040 --> 00:56:51,839
Speaker 5: seven and a half. I could usually see that get

1205
00:56:51,880 --> 00:56:53,279
Speaker 5: up to forty eighty forty eight and a half, which

1206
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:53,960
Speaker 5: that's where I.

1207
00:56:53,880 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 3: Got to model that. I think there's still value on

1208
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:56,160
Speaker 3: the over.

1209
00:56:56,640 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 5: And you know, my view of it is what me

1210
00:56:58,280 --> 00:57:00,440
Speaker 5: and Chat kind of talked about there, where you know,

1211
00:57:00,640 --> 00:57:03,719
Speaker 5: Eagles are a big play offense, and there's a high

1212
00:57:03,800 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 5: variance right now.

1213
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:05,640
Speaker 3: On this Commanders team.

1214
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:07,919
Speaker 5: Them going for a fourth down and I just don't

1215
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,200
Speaker 5: see many many threes being kicked in this game. Even

1216
00:57:10,239 --> 00:57:12,239
Speaker 5: the Eagles don't really trust their kicker right now. So

1217
00:57:12,600 --> 00:57:15,040
Speaker 5: it feels like Washington Eagles easily get turned into a

1218
00:57:15,080 --> 00:57:18,840
Speaker 5: shootout and that Chief spills game. Both sides wanted to

1219
00:57:18,880 --> 00:57:22,439
Speaker 5: be born, wanted to take long, slow drives, and it's

1220
00:57:22,480 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 5: it's basically bumped up just because of the names, right

1221
00:57:25,400 --> 00:57:28,000
Speaker 5: it's the Mahomes versus Allen. We're getting probably two to

1222
00:57:28,040 --> 00:57:30,800
Speaker 5: three free points because people are still living in twenty

1223
00:57:30,840 --> 00:57:33,440
Speaker 5: twenty two, twenty twenty one, Like, these are not those

1224
00:57:33,480 --> 00:57:37,200
Speaker 5: same teams, and it's it's not winning football. We've seen

1225
00:57:37,200 --> 00:57:40,120
Speaker 5: that the NFL is shifted now where it's the.

1226
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:40,720
Speaker 3: Three the three.

1227
00:57:40,880 --> 00:57:42,680
Speaker 5: I mean you can even say commanders, Like the four

1228
00:57:42,720 --> 00:57:46,000
Speaker 5: best teams left all go for the moors the most

1229
00:57:46,040 --> 00:57:49,240
Speaker 5: and most successfully are fourth down and they all have good,

1230
00:57:49,280 --> 00:57:52,160
Speaker 5: strong run games. So we've definitely seen a shift chat

1231
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:55,520
Speaker 5: in the NFL, and that plays into this chief Spills game.

1232
00:57:55,520 --> 00:57:57,800
Speaker 5: I just I like that under there. So yeah, both

1233
00:57:57,840 --> 00:58:00,000
Speaker 5: favorites and then an over and under pretty pretty So.

1234
00:58:02,000 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

1235
00:58:06,800 --> 00:58:09,960
Speaker 4: Let's play Scoots Roulette.

1236
00:58:10,760 --> 00:58:11,560
Speaker 2: Scoot Roulette.

1237
00:58:11,600 --> 00:58:15,920
Speaker 1: Last week you had Buffalo, I had Baltimore. I feel

1238
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:17,920
Speaker 1: like we're gonna end up on the same teams this week.

1239
00:58:18,400 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 5: Nah, well you can go first, you pick, I'll go,

1240
00:58:21,160 --> 00:58:22,360
Speaker 5: and I'll go a different team.

1241
00:58:22,480 --> 00:58:24,720
Speaker 2: Well I want the Chiefs, Yeah, I'll go Eagles.

1242
00:58:24,720 --> 00:58:29,400
Speaker 3: Then all right, hey, ain't nobody trying to hit that bullshit?

1243
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 4: All right?

1244
00:58:29,800 --> 00:58:31,560
Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's welcome in our

1245
00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 1: direct You're so magnanimous, you're feeling so good this week.

1246
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,720
Speaker 1: You're unlike Matt Mitchell, who's like says he's free and

1247
00:58:37,840 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 1: happy and you know, just joy, unhinged, dancing like no

1248
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:46,840
Speaker 1: one's watching. And yet we're seeing him comes in seven

1249
00:58:46,960 --> 00:58:47,959
Speaker 1: years of knowing him.

1250
00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:50,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've never seen him this unhinged.

1251
00:58:50,840 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 4: Go outside, ner, get out, go. I ain't got time

1252
00:58:55,120 --> 00:58:57,880
Speaker 4: to be distracted by your worthless chime. Man's gone. You

1253
00:58:57,920 --> 00:59:00,520
Speaker 4: better tell this some much to walk the fuck out. Now?

1254
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:02,000
Speaker 4: Are we done for the day.

1255
00:59:03,640 --> 00:59:04,439
Speaker 2: We get out of here.

1256
00:59:04,840 --> 00:59:08,080
Speaker 1: Let's welcome in our director of research, Evan Abrams, for

1257
00:59:08,160 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 1: the final word. Tell me something, Evan, make me feel good.

1258
00:59:11,640 --> 00:59:16,480
Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.

1259
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 4: To be fair for people who've known Matt Mitchell for

1260
00:59:19,400 --> 00:59:21,000
Speaker 4: as long as you and I have, I mean, this

1261
00:59:21,040 --> 00:59:23,120
Speaker 4: is the closest he's ever been to the Promised Land,

1262
00:59:23,520 --> 00:59:26,880
Speaker 4: Like this is actually the closest, like thirteen seconds and

1263
00:59:26,920 --> 00:59:29,040
Speaker 4: the whole thing. Yeah, this is the Bills team that

1264
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:32,240
Speaker 4: isn't turning it over, it's playing say football, it's doing

1265
00:59:32,240 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 4: exactly what they need to do to get there. So

1266
00:59:34,320 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 4: I think he's unhinged because he's never been this nervous

1267
00:59:36,720 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 4: in his life.

1268
00:59:38,040 --> 00:59:40,440
Speaker 1: I'd like to see on Sunday night if they just

1269
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:45,440
Speaker 1: lose regular correct how he's feeling when we got to

1270
00:59:45,440 --> 00:59:48,840
Speaker 1: record the podcast. Yeah, he barely made it onto the

1271
00:59:48,840 --> 00:59:49,760
Speaker 1: show last Sunday.

1272
00:59:50,800 --> 00:59:52,640
Speaker 4: I mean, he's not showing up the place, and then

1273
00:59:52,640 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 4: he's showing up early and screaming and everyone. It's been

1274
00:59:55,280 --> 00:59:59,360
Speaker 4: wonderful to answer some of your questions from earlier. There

1275
00:59:59,400 --> 01:00:02,120
Speaker 4: are hypoth medical lines out for the Super Bowl right now.

1276
01:00:02,280 --> 01:00:05,760
Speaker 4: So yeah, like Casey and Buffalo about four and a

1277
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 4: half point favorites over Washington in both situations, and Casey

1278
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 4: Buffalo both about one and a half favorites over Philly's

1279
01:00:13,400 --> 01:00:16,240
Speaker 4: at this point. The interesting thing about those look aheadlines

1280
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,640
Speaker 4: Buffalo Washington total is fifty three and a half, which

1281
01:00:19,680 --> 01:00:23,160
Speaker 4: is fun. Everything else is kind of in order. All so,

1282
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:25,640
Speaker 4: I'll give you a few stats for some of these games.

1283
01:00:25,880 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 4: You guys had talked about the Chiefs and some of

1284
01:00:27,800 --> 01:00:30,640
Speaker 4: the advantages they have. Well they have another advantage. If

1285
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:33,200
Speaker 4: you watch the games last weekend. They played the first

1286
01:00:33,200 --> 01:00:35,360
Speaker 4: game of the weekend, they played on Saturday, weill Buffalo

1287
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,160
Speaker 4: played the last game of the weekend. So Chiefs actually

1288
01:00:38,160 --> 01:00:41,440
Speaker 4: do have a full day rest and prep advantage against

1289
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 4: Buffalo in this one. So Andy Reid in his career

1290
01:00:44,280 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 4: forty five and twelve straight up Chiefs and Eagles when

1291
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:50,520
Speaker 4: coaching a game on extended prep time more than a

1292
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:53,200
Speaker 4: full week while his opponent is on normal or less.

1293
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:55,320
Speaker 4: When that game is at home, He's thirty one and

1294
01:00:55,480 --> 01:00:59,800
Speaker 4: seven with Mahomes. Reid is twenty and three in that spot,

1295
01:01:00,120 --> 01:01:04,280
Speaker 4: fourteen and one at home with the rest advantage. So

1296
01:01:04,400 --> 01:01:06,320
Speaker 4: let's talk about the other thing I was gonna mention,

1297
01:01:06,440 --> 01:01:09,960
Speaker 4: is this Casey's bet percentage Now, depending on the book

1298
01:01:10,360 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 4: at action, we do like a consensus percentage right now,

1299
01:01:12,760 --> 01:01:15,040
Speaker 4: it's in about the low thirties, which would be one

1300
01:01:15,040 --> 01:01:18,160
Speaker 4: of the lowest of his careers. So Buffalo definitely getting

1301
01:01:18,200 --> 01:01:20,920
Speaker 4: some love in this game. And let's turn our attention

1302
01:01:21,000 --> 01:01:24,160
Speaker 4: now to Washington and Philly. So, yeah, Washington is a

1303
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:26,000
Speaker 4: six point underdog, but they feel like a bit of

1304
01:01:26,000 --> 01:01:29,000
Speaker 4: a different six point underdog, and especially this year because

1305
01:01:29,000 --> 01:01:32,000
Speaker 4: of their scoring. They are averaging twenty nine point one

1306
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:36,520
Speaker 4: points per game including the playoffs since the merger. Only

1307
01:01:36,560 --> 01:01:40,680
Speaker 4: the twenty fourteen twenty fifteen Packers behind Aaron Rodgers averaged

1308
01:01:40,880 --> 01:01:43,600
Speaker 4: twenty nine points per game or more. And we're this

1309
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:46,880
Speaker 4: high of an underdog. In the Conference championship. They closed

1310
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:49,600
Speaker 4: plus eight and a half against Seattle. In that game

1311
01:01:49,720 --> 01:01:53,040
Speaker 4: they actually led nineteen seven, lost twenty eight to twenty two.

1312
01:01:53,640 --> 01:01:55,560
Speaker 4: They did cover the spread, it means very little. I

1313
01:01:55,560 --> 01:01:57,600
Speaker 4: think the thing I'm trying to prove here is that

1314
01:01:57,920 --> 01:02:00,880
Speaker 4: Washington is kind of an enigma, honestly a team from

1315
01:02:00,880 --> 01:02:02,800
Speaker 4: a scoring point of view, from the fact that they

1316
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:04,840
Speaker 4: have a rookie head coach, you know, a new one

1317
01:02:05,280 --> 01:02:09,000
Speaker 4: for Washington, and an actual rookie quarterback. So I just

1318
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:12,200
Speaker 4: think they're a little bit messing with the models because

1319
01:02:12,200 --> 01:02:14,160
Speaker 4: of their offense. And then I'll give you this last

1320
01:02:14,200 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 4: note pure from bet Labs. But Commanders had no playoff experience,

1321
01:02:18,920 --> 01:02:21,680
Speaker 4: didn't make it last year, while the Eagles they've got

1322
01:02:21,800 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 4: a decent amount of playoff experience being to the Super Bowl.

1323
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:27,280
Speaker 4: Obviously they were there last year. So teams who didn't

1324
01:02:27,280 --> 01:02:29,920
Speaker 4: make the playoffs the year prior are seven to ten

1325
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:31,960
Speaker 4: against the spread versus a team who did. In the

1326
01:02:31,960 --> 01:02:34,720
Speaker 4: conference championship dating back to two thousand and four, when

1327
01:02:34,720 --> 01:02:37,320
Speaker 4: the spread is over a field goal. They are one

1328
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:41,040
Speaker 4: to nine straight up and four and six against the spread. Now,

1329
01:02:41,080 --> 01:02:44,640
Speaker 4: the one upset Joe Burrow and the Bengals over the

1330
01:02:44,680 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 4: Chiefs in twenty twenty two that took Mahomes home and

1331
01:02:47,800 --> 01:02:50,440
Speaker 4: took them to the super Bowl. So the numbers aren't

1332
01:02:50,560 --> 01:02:53,600
Speaker 4: fantastic for Daniels, But who the heck cares at this point.

1333
01:02:53,640 --> 01:02:56,320
Speaker 4: I mean, he's won twice as underdogs and now he's

1334
01:02:56,360 --> 01:02:59,520
Speaker 4: an underdog again. That's only happened once where you've won

1335
01:02:59,640 --> 01:03:02,520
Speaker 4: all three games in the playoffs as an underdog to

1336
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:05,080
Speaker 4: get to the super Bowl two thousand and eight Giants.

1337
01:03:05,600 --> 01:03:08,560
Speaker 4: So we will see what type of history Washington makes

1338
01:03:08,600 --> 01:03:09,160
Speaker 4: on Sunday.

1339
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 5: My favorite Daniels stat is in nine season Dak Prescott

1340
01:03:12,960 --> 01:03:16,120
Speaker 5: two playoff wins, Jane Daniels one season two playoff wins.

1341
01:03:16,240 --> 01:03:16,960
Speaker 3: I love the troll.

1342
01:03:17,080 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 2: Well, look, it's very possible he's just a cheat code

1343
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:21,920
Speaker 2: that can really be accounted for.

1344
01:03:22,280 --> 01:03:26,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're having all these conversations about it, and

1345
01:03:26,400 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 1: in the end of the days, he's Mahomes asking what

1346
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,160
Speaker 1: he can do on the field that you have to

1347
01:03:32,200 --> 01:03:35,680
Speaker 1: discount every other element of the game. What was that

1348
01:03:35,800 --> 01:03:40,080
Speaker 1: stat that Andy Reid with Patrick Mahomes is twenty and

1349
01:03:40,120 --> 01:03:42,360
Speaker 1: three straight up with an extra day of rest.

1350
01:03:42,840 --> 01:03:44,840
Speaker 4: It's just a rest advantage. Yes, so when they have

1351
01:03:45,120 --> 01:03:47,240
Speaker 4: eight or more so, like more than a full week,

1352
01:03:47,440 --> 01:03:50,120
Speaker 4: and the opponent is normal or less, so seven or

1353
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:53,480
Speaker 4: less twenty and three with Mahomes fourteen and one. At home.

1354
01:03:53,680 --> 01:03:55,880
Speaker 4: When I say fourteen and one, though I in my

1355
01:03:55,920 --> 01:03:57,920
Speaker 4: brain am saying to myself, who is the loss? I

1356
01:03:57,960 --> 01:03:59,760
Speaker 4: honestly can't remember, but I have to look it up.

1357
01:04:00,000 --> 01:04:01,200
Speaker 3: It's gonna be the Raiders something.

1358
01:04:01,800 --> 01:04:05,240
Speaker 4: It's either it's always Raiders or Tom Brady, which is

1359
01:04:05,280 --> 01:04:07,120
Speaker 4: now the same thing. So which is funny?

1360
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:09,400
Speaker 2: That is funny? Thank you Evan.

1361
01:04:09,560 --> 01:04:12,280
Speaker 1: As reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three

1362
01:04:12,320 --> 01:04:15,040
Speaker 1: six five and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers

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Speaker 1: you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,

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01:04:20,520 --> 01:04:22,600
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Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those

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Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spread totals, player props, futures,

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01:04:30,440 --> 01:04:31,360
Speaker 2: At bet three sixty five.

1370
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:35,840
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

1371
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:40,120
Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or eighteen and

1372
01:04:40,160 --> 01:04:44,240
Speaker 1: older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler

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01:04:44,720 --> 01:04:47,120
Speaker 1: or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms condition

1374
01:04:47,200 --> 01:04:50,120
Speaker 1: and restrictions apply. Simon and I will be back with

1375
01:04:50,200 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 1: our next episode of the Favorites on the Action Network

1376
01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:56,160
Speaker 1: YouTube page later than usual this Sunday Sunday night after

1377
01:04:56,280 --> 01:05:01,160
Speaker 1: the Chiefs Bills game to recap both conferences championship games

1378
01:05:01,200 --> 01:05:01,760
Speaker 1: and get an.

1379
01:05:01,720 --> 01:05:04,200
Speaker 2: Early look at the Super Bowl.

1380
01:05:04,320 --> 01:05:07,400
Speaker 1: Downloads from Spotify, Apple Pods wherever you get your pods,

1381
01:05:07,480 --> 01:05:09,200
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1382
01:05:09,080 --> 01:05:10,880
Speaker 2: Five stars, say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift

1383
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:24,800
Speaker 2: until next time. Love you. Action Network reminds you please

1384
01:05:24,840 --> 01:05:28,240
Speaker 2: gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care about has

1385
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 2: a gambling problem. Help us available twenty four to seven

1386
01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:33,000
Speaker 2: at one eight hundred gambler