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Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. I think the key thing for

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Speaker 1: Drug is to basically make it clear that he understands

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Speaker 1: all the issues that people have. The job market is

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Speaker 1: not as competitive as we like to think. There are

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Speaker 1: frictions in the job market, bargaining power matters. Economic data

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Speaker 1: is improving. It will not only back away from recession,

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Speaker 1: peers will maybe get to the point of where we

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Speaker 1: embrace an idea of a sacredized bounce globally. Bloomberg Surveillance

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Speaker 1: your link to the world of economics, finance, and investment

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio. Good morning. It is seven am on

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Speaker 1: Wall Street, two am in Honolulu. Late breaking news. Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump wins the Hawaii Republican caucus. He also won in Michigan,

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Speaker 1: as did Bernie Sanders. We'll talk about why today on

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance and Michael McKee along with Tom Keane. If

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Speaker 1: the prospect of a Trump nomination is scaring investors, they

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Speaker 1: are not showing it yet. A down day in Asia

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Speaker 1: Tokyo off by eight tenths has been followed by an

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Speaker 1: up day in Europe. We are just a day away

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Speaker 1: from the European Central Bank, meaning expectations really high. That's

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Speaker 1: another topic for US here on surveillance. UH later in

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Speaker 1: the show, the stock six hundred four points higher now

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Speaker 1: one point one percent. The docks is up a hundred

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Speaker 1: twenty eight. That's one point three percent. The foot see

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Speaker 1: not going to be affected by the ECB thirty six

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Speaker 1: points higher, six tenths of eight percent. Here in the US,

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Speaker 1: futures are significantly higher after yesterday's lower closed. The S

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Speaker 1: and P five hundred futures are up by ten points

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Speaker 1: right now half a percent, a half percent gain for

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Speaker 1: down e meaning futures, they're up eighty six and the

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Speaker 1: stock six hundred is four UH to the NASDAC. I'm sorry,

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Speaker 1: as I mentioned, twenty three points higher, about six tenths

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Speaker 1: of eight percent. Bonds are lower, yields higher this morning,

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Speaker 1: the ten year one point eight eight percent, the five

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Speaker 1: year one point three eight percent, eighty nine basis points

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Speaker 1: for the two year. That's a little move higher in

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Speaker 1: yields over the last hour or so. UH oils higher

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Speaker 1: this morning, Brent crude up seventy seven cents one one

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Speaker 1: point six percent, Game for West Texas up sixty cents

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Speaker 1: on the morning, and the Sun tabloid in London says

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Speaker 1: the Queen favors brexit. No confirmation from her majesty, but

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Speaker 1: the pound is higher this morning on the euros higher. Well,

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Speaker 1: the euro has turned around. My mistake. It was highest morning,

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Speaker 1: it's now lower one ahead of the ECB meeting. Getting

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Speaker 1: people are expecting some sort of additional stimulus. And happy anniversary,

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Speaker 1: tom uh Today is the seventh anniversary of the bull

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Speaker 1: market began March ninth, two thousand nine. The SMP is

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Speaker 1: up almost two hundred percent from its low that day.

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Speaker 1: Can you remember six seventy six fifty three, you know,

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Speaker 1: just under two thousand. Think of the people that we're

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Speaker 1: in cash? Yeah, stayed in cash. If you were under

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Speaker 1: a desk, I mean, even if you made every mistake

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Speaker 1: before that, how do you catch up if you missed

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Speaker 1: that bull market? That's right. We can ask our our

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Speaker 1: next guest, Dan Suzuki, isn't sure. I guess how much

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Speaker 1: higher it can go. He's the senior equity strategist at

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Speaker 1: Bank of America Maryland Global Research. And you recently lowered

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Speaker 1: your SMP forecast. Yeah, that's right. I think we wanted

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Speaker 1: to reflect that there was greater risk just a couple

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Speaker 1: of months ago. In the market. I think some of

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Speaker 1: that risk has abated a bit with the turn of

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Speaker 1: the economic data. You know, we're talking about the anniversary.

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Speaker 1: You know, you're gonna see pretty much every every media

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Speaker 1: outlet talk and write articles about how we're, you know,

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Speaker 1: at the seven year anniversary of this bull market. I

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Speaker 1: think what's more important for investors to take away is

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Speaker 1: how much the market's up since the prior peak. You know,

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Speaker 1: if you think about where we were in two thousand seven,

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Speaker 1: in October two thousand seven, if you were an investor

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Speaker 1: and you bought the market, then you know you would

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Speaker 1: have you would have seen, you know, the biggest bear

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Speaker 1: market in our lifetimes, the biggest recession in our lifetimes,

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Speaker 1: our financial system brought to its knees. Yet the market

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Speaker 1: today is up over fifty on a total return basis

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Speaker 1: since then. And I think that speaks to you know,

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Speaker 1: long term investing and contrivings is your model with whether

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Speaker 1: you're cautious now an optimism later, which I believe is

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Speaker 1: the general call. It's centered on returning cash to shareholders. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and there's no different now than it was if it's

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Speaker 1: four decades ago. You know, it's it's shifted a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look historically, going back to the

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Speaker 1: early part of the century, our last century, you know,

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Speaker 1: companies were paying fifty six of their their earnings out

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Speaker 1: as dividends. That's come down, but you're starting to see

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Speaker 1: it go up, and I think it's it's an underlooked

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Speaker 1: area of the market. Again, going back to the returns

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Speaker 1: you've seen since the prior peak, half of those came

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Speaker 1: from dividends. So I think dividends are are way to

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Speaker 1: underlooked in this market. That may be the case, but

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Speaker 1: that to me sort of falls under the old check prince,

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Speaker 1: you've gotta dance um while the music is playing. If

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Speaker 1: they're giving out dividends, take the dividends, but doesn't it

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Speaker 1: suggest that companies are not investing their cash to grow

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Speaker 1: the top line, and so longer term the outlook isn't

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Speaker 1: as good. Well, the fact that dividends are important important

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Speaker 1: is sort of separate from whether or not they're investing

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Speaker 1: in in capital investments. So if you look historically, whether

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Speaker 1: they've invested or not, dividends have always been the concept. Yes,

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Speaker 1: I'm just talking about the fact that they have increased

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Speaker 1: and more companies paying a higher dividend also buying backstock

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Speaker 1: to prop up their stuff. I think the fact that

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Speaker 1: you've seen a massive increase over the last few years

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Speaker 1: and returning cast shareholder is a reflection of the fact

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Speaker 1: there's less investment opportunities out there. I mean, there are options.

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Speaker 1: If there are less growth opportunities out there, your option

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Speaker 1: as a shareholder is that is to want them to

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Speaker 1: invest in the company, which you know is there's not

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Speaker 1: many growth up jeans out there, or return that to shareholders,

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Speaker 1: which I think makes sense, or sit on cash. So

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Speaker 1: I think that that makes sense. Um, the fact that

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Speaker 1: you know dividends increasing, I think that's actually more reflection

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Speaker 1: of the fact that there's uh the market to start

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Speaker 1: for yield. I mean you were talking about interest rates,

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Speaker 1: how low they were a little bit earlier. I think

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Speaker 1: that is driving this drive, this demand for dividends, and

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Speaker 1: and companies are responding to that. Dean Suzuki with this

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Speaker 1: Bank of America, Meryl Lynch Bloomberg Savannas. This morning brought

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Speaker 1: you by investco. Looking for investment views experienced experts. They're

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Speaker 1: just to click away. Go to investco dot com slash

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Speaker 1: us to subscribe to the investco blog and follow and

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Speaker 1: invest goo us on Twitter. Give me the three groups

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Speaker 1: I need to be in if I want to get

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Speaker 1: ready for further highs in the market. You're hesitant about now,

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Speaker 1: But if I've got to research three groups, what are they? Uh?

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Speaker 1: If you if you, if you believe that the market

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Speaker 1: is going to higher, you obviously want to get into

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Speaker 1: the more cyclical areas, especially the particularly the ones that

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Speaker 1: are beaten down. Now. Part of that, part, yeah, part

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Speaker 1: of that is based on what your commanding view is.

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Speaker 1: If you think that commandities are going higher, those those

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Speaker 1: stocks have a lot of room to rally further. But

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Speaker 1: I think from a risk war perspective, you know, technology

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Speaker 1: companies have great balance sheets and they have good growth prospects.

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Speaker 1: Industrial companies, if you do believe that the data, the

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Speaker 1: data has shown an inflection, I think you could see

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Speaker 1: you know, those companies, particularly given how high quality they've

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Speaker 1: become relative to a decade ago. His Historically, you know,

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Speaker 1: they had you know, hugely volatile earnings growth and you know,

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Speaker 1: low quality balance sheets. Now they have they've delivered their

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Speaker 1: balance sheets and their earning stabilities a lot better. So

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Speaker 1: I think, you know, industrials and tech are are well positioned.

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Speaker 1: If you think the market's going higher. I think our

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Speaker 1: theme is really more about moving away from your sector

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Speaker 1: view and more about playing themes like companies with stronger

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Speaker 1: balance sheets, larger companies, company with more stable earnings. I

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Speaker 1: think those types of companies are going to con here

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Speaker 1: to do well, especially if you think that we're probably

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Speaker 1: in the early stages of a credit tightening. I think

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Speaker 1: you know, we're just now. If you look at the

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Speaker 1: FED Loan Officers survey, we've only seen the first two

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Speaker 1: quarters of net tightening by loan officers. That's probably going

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Speaker 1: to continue going forward. So I don't think you want

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Speaker 1: to be riding the junk rally that you've seen in

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Speaker 1: the recent weeks. The h the target um for the

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Speaker 1: smp F I founded you recently lowered. Why are you

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Speaker 1: coming down at this point? Well, I think it's a

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Speaker 1: reflection of a few things. If you look at you know,

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Speaker 1: the earnings front, uh, you know, the earnings outlooks definitely

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Speaker 1: gotten worse, The commandity outlook has gotten worse, and so

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Speaker 1: I think, and and then on top of that, the

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Speaker 1: data that was coming in. You know, I mentioned on

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Speaker 1: the last segment that the I s M had seen

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Speaker 1: six consecutive months of deterioration, and that wasn't It was

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Speaker 1: basically every indicator you look at was basically at you know,

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Speaker 1: cycle lows or it's seen significant deterioration. So what do

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Speaker 1: you get on I don't mean to interruptink this is critical.

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Speaker 1: I'll go with a gloom of January you climb on.

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Speaker 1: Now for a rebound, how does a pro extend the

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Speaker 1: easy rebound and do a bull call? How do you

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Speaker 1: do that? Yeah, I think it depends on whether right

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Speaker 1: now you're seeing the bull rebound based on a lot

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Speaker 1: of high frequency In the case, I think to get

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Speaker 1: to extend the bull rebound, you have to have some

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Speaker 1: belief that these are sustainable. The pick pickup in growth

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Speaker 1: you have is sustainable. I think in the near term

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Speaker 1: the markets probably got a little bit ahead of itself.

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Speaker 1: I mean I mentioned the last the last show. Estimate

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Speaker 1: revisions are still in the cyclo of meaning that analysts

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Speaker 1: are taking are taking down their estimates. Uh two to

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Speaker 1: one for every analyst that's taking up their estimates. That's

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Speaker 1: a pretty bad sign for the markets in the near term.

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Speaker 1: But I think as you get more later in the year,

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Speaker 1: you are going to see growth pick up. And I

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Speaker 1: think that's gonna be, you know, the sustainably and get

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Speaker 1: out in front of that. What I just heard you say,

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Speaker 1: as you want to research industrials, uh, industrial tech, I

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Speaker 1: think are are where you want to look to ride

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Speaker 1: the Dan Suzuki with us with Bank of America Maryland.

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Speaker 1: She'll continue with us here through the our lot of

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Speaker 1: interesting guests coming up today and into tomorrow as well. Um, Mike,

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Speaker 1: very quickly here at eight thirty tomorrow, the world stops.

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Speaker 1: Is that true? Um? The world stops? Well, yes, in

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Speaker 1: that sense I the world. The markets keep going, but

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Speaker 1: everybody stops to listen. We'll do that. Yes, it's like

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Speaker 1: the old sheer sinnata. Where else do you want to be?

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Speaker 1: Michael McKee sifty the ECB headlines tomorrow, we'll be all

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Speaker 1: over it. That is a good and beautiful thing. Like

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Speaker 1: futures up eleven, Dan Suzuki driving the market higher, futures

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Speaker 1: up twelve, job futures up ninety four. Now let's check

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Speaker 1: it with Michael Barr and got the latest world and

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Speaker 1: national headlines, Mike, tom thank you very much. The Democratic

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Speaker 1: presidential candidates split primaries in Michigan and Mississippi yesterday. Bernie

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Speaker 1: Sanders surprise Hillary Clinton with an upset win in Michigan.

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Speaker 1: Clinton soundly won in Mississippi and helped put her more

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Speaker 1: than halfway to winning the delegates she needs to secure

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Speaker 1: the nomination for the Republicans. Donald Trump had the strongest showing,

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Speaker 1: winning in Michigan, Mississippi, and Hawaii. Ted Cruz took Idaho.

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Speaker 1: Vice President Joe Biden says if Iron breaks the terms

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Speaker 1: of the nuclear deal it's signed, the US will act.

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Speaker 1: Biden spoke alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netton Yahoo today

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Speaker 1: in Jerusalem, shortly after you around announced it had test

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Speaker 1: fire to ballistic missiles. Two days of a public viewing

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Speaker 1: begins today as the body of former First Lady Nancy

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Speaker 1: Reagan will lie in repose at the Reagan Presidential Library.

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Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our

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