WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Sarah Wolfe & Rebecca Patterson

0:00:02.520 --> 0:00:07.040
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:15.160 --> 0:00:17.759
<v Speaker 2>The single best idea is to have a good weekend.

0:00:18.079 --> 0:00:21.280
<v Speaker 2>It is a celebration of America with all the emotion.

0:00:21.360 --> 0:00:23.560
<v Speaker 2>It was really great to learn. Actually, I used AI

0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:28.240
<v Speaker 2>today to learn about I'd read it in Rick Atkinson's book.

0:00:28.640 --> 0:00:30.920
<v Speaker 2>My Book of the Summer is volume two of Rick

0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:36.479
<v Speaker 2>Atkinson's Wonderful American Revolution Trilogy, the third book to be written,

0:00:37.040 --> 0:00:39.800
<v Speaker 2>and I remember in the first volume the emotion of

0:00:39.840 --> 0:00:44.400
<v Speaker 2>a very sweltering Philadelphia as Thomas Jefferson wrote the Declaration

0:00:44.479 --> 0:00:47.639
<v Speaker 2>of Independence. So I used AI today to figure out

0:00:47.640 --> 0:00:51.280
<v Speaker 2>the graph house in Philadelphia was some nice background. This

0:00:51.320 --> 0:00:56.680
<v Speaker 2>whole AI thing is really jaw dropping, to say the least.

0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:59.640
<v Speaker 2>We use AI on Jobs Day, and part of that

0:01:00.120 --> 0:01:02.440
<v Speaker 2>is to try to look not at the immediate data,

0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.559
<v Speaker 2>but at the noise around it. There is no greater

0:01:05.680 --> 0:01:10.720
<v Speaker 2>noise now than immigration and the changes in immigration tied

0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:14.959
<v Speaker 2>into our American labor economy. Sarah Wolf Morgan Stanley.

0:01:15.200 --> 0:01:17.920
<v Speaker 1>I think you're getting the immigration story coming through in

0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.640
<v Speaker 1>the household report. If you look at the participation rate,

0:01:20.680 --> 0:01:23.760
<v Speaker 1>it's come down now for about two months, and that's

0:01:23.840 --> 0:01:28.240
<v Speaker 1>actually as expected, helping keep the labor market tight even

0:01:28.319 --> 0:01:31.400
<v Speaker 1>as we're seeing this slowing trend and payrolls. So the

0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:34.520
<v Speaker 1>unemployment rate, for example, last month would have been up

0:01:34.560 --> 0:01:38.280
<v Speaker 1>to four point six percent if the participation rate hadn't fallen. Yeah,

0:01:38.280 --> 0:01:40.880
<v Speaker 1>it's definitely taking out labor supply. Right now, we have

0:01:40.920 --> 0:01:44.360
<v Speaker 1>the participation rate sixty two point three percent that helped

0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:47.880
<v Speaker 1>bring the unemployment rate down to four point one even

0:01:47.960 --> 0:01:50.840
<v Speaker 1>though the number of unemployed in the household survey was

0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:54.000
<v Speaker 1>negative two hundred thousand. So of course we need to

0:01:54.040 --> 0:01:56.320
<v Speaker 1>smooth out the household survey data. But I do think

0:01:56.360 --> 0:01:57.560
<v Speaker 1>that's an important story.

0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:01.240
<v Speaker 2>Amazing what Sarah Wolf in our studio using the Bloomberg

0:02:01.360 --> 0:02:05.240
<v Speaker 2>terminal to look at the linkage of economics with finance

0:02:05.320 --> 0:02:09.560
<v Speaker 2>and investment in real time with a job report, particularly

0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:14.320
<v Speaker 2>looking at FED expectations changing in real time. I joined

0:02:14.320 --> 0:02:17.640
<v Speaker 2>to have Rebecca Patterson with us today or expertise on

0:02:17.720 --> 0:02:21.359
<v Speaker 2>foreign exchange or work with a console on foreign at relations.

0:02:21.400 --> 0:02:25.800
<v Speaker 2>Patterson always citing smart people brad sets are publishing in

0:02:25.840 --> 0:02:28.800
<v Speaker 2>the last twenty four hours at the Council on Foreign

0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:33.400
<v Speaker 2>Relations on Pacific rim dollar dynamics. Here is Rebecca Patterson

0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:36.000
<v Speaker 2>on that weeker dollar There's.

0:02:35.880 --> 0:02:38.560
<v Speaker 3>One story that I think would be good for people

0:02:38.560 --> 0:02:41.640
<v Speaker 3>to read with their lobster role this weekend. My colleague

0:02:41.639 --> 0:02:44.960
<v Speaker 3>at CFR, Brad sets Are, published a piece yesterday on

0:02:45.080 --> 0:02:48.440
<v Speaker 3>balands of payments, looking at the Asian currencies and what

0:02:48.520 --> 0:02:52.200
<v Speaker 3>he calls a reverse Asian financial crisis risk. I have

0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:54.960
<v Speaker 3>not had the chance yet to read this piece. I

0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:57.760
<v Speaker 3>just read the top of it. But the idea is

0:02:57.800 --> 0:02:59.959
<v Speaker 3>that a lot of these currents have become very un

0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:04.240
<v Speaker 3>a valued and if they have to revalue and everything

0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.840
<v Speaker 3>that comes with that, the owning of US treasuries by

0:03:06.919 --> 0:03:10.280
<v Speaker 3>Taiwan Life insurers, et cetera, you could have global ripple

0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.400
<v Speaker 3>effects across asset classes. So I think that would be

0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:16.320
<v Speaker 3>useful reading for anyone who's thinking about contagion.

0:03:16.760 --> 0:03:20.359
<v Speaker 2>Rebecca Patterson there the Council and Formulations also board member

0:03:20.919 --> 0:03:24.799
<v Speaker 2>at Vanguard. We are halfway through the year and one

0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:28.920
<v Speaker 2>of the benchmarks of this new digital experiment was in

0:03:28.960 --> 0:03:32.440
<v Speaker 2>November of last year saying where would we be on

0:03:32.520 --> 0:03:37.280
<v Speaker 2>the fourth of July. And it is absolutely stunning the

0:03:37.320 --> 0:03:40.760
<v Speaker 2>growth that we've seen in YouTube. It is new, We're

0:03:40.800 --> 0:03:46.720
<v Speaker 2>learning every day. It is absolutely humbling to look at

0:03:46.720 --> 0:03:51.280
<v Speaker 2>digital the different ways of digital, the consumption of digital,

0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:54.560
<v Speaker 2>what people care about, what we see. There's a thing

0:03:54.640 --> 0:03:57.880
<v Speaker 2>called time spent listening or time spent watching, and it's

0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:02.720
<v Speaker 2>absolutely humbling the amount of time that people generate each

0:04:02.760 --> 0:04:06.320
<v Speaker 2>and every morning to Bloomberg surveillance. That's of course on

0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:10.960
<v Speaker 2>radio and on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts at Apple,

0:04:11.000 --> 0:04:14.480
<v Speaker 2>at Spotify, at YouTube podcasts. This is a single best

0:04:14.760 --> 0:04:22.080
<v Speaker 2>idea