1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:15,160 --> 00:00:17,759 Speaker 2: The single best idea is to have a good weekend. 3 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,280 Speaker 2: It is a celebration of America with all the emotion. 4 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 2: It was really great to learn. Actually, I used AI 5 00:00:23,680 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: today to learn about I'd read it in Rick Atkinson's book. 6 00:00:28,640 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: My Book of the Summer is volume two of Rick 7 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:36,479 Speaker 2: Atkinson's Wonderful American Revolution Trilogy, the third book to be written, 8 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,800 Speaker 2: and I remember in the first volume the emotion of 9 00:00:39,840 --> 00:00:44,400 Speaker 2: a very sweltering Philadelphia as Thomas Jefferson wrote the Declaration 10 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,639 Speaker 2: of Independence. So I used AI today to figure out 11 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:51,280 Speaker 2: the graph house in Philadelphia was some nice background. This 12 00:00:51,320 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: whole AI thing is really jaw dropping, to say the least. 13 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 2: We use AI on Jobs Day, and part of that 14 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,440 Speaker 2: is to try to look not at the immediate data, 15 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:05,559 Speaker 2: but at the noise around it. There is no greater 16 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 2: noise now than immigration and the changes in immigration tied 17 00:01:10,760 --> 00:01:14,959 Speaker 2: into our American labor economy. Sarah Wolf Morgan Stanley. 18 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: I think you're getting the immigration story coming through in 19 00:01:17,959 --> 00:01:20,640 Speaker 1: the household report. If you look at the participation rate, 20 00:01:20,680 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 1: it's come down now for about two months, and that's 21 00:01:23,840 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 1: actually as expected, helping keep the labor market tight even 22 00:01:28,319 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: as we're seeing this slowing trend and payrolls. So the 23 00:01:31,480 --> 00:01:34,520 Speaker 1: unemployment rate, for example, last month would have been up 24 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: to four point six percent if the participation rate hadn't fallen. Yeah, 25 00:01:38,280 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 1: it's definitely taking out labor supply. Right now, we have 26 00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:44,360 Speaker 1: the participation rate sixty two point three percent that helped 27 00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:47,880 Speaker 1: bring the unemployment rate down to four point one even 28 00:01:47,960 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: though the number of unemployed in the household survey was 29 00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: negative two hundred thousand. So of course we need to 30 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: smooth out the household survey data. But I do think 31 00:01:56,360 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 1: that's an important story. 32 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,240 Speaker 2: Amazing what Sarah Wolf in our studio using the Bloomberg 33 00:02:01,360 --> 00:02:05,240 Speaker 2: terminal to look at the linkage of economics with finance 34 00:02:05,320 --> 00:02:09,560 Speaker 2: and investment in real time with a job report, particularly 35 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 2: looking at FED expectations changing in real time. I joined 36 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 2: to have Rebecca Patterson with us today or expertise on 37 00:02:17,720 --> 00:02:21,359 Speaker 2: foreign exchange or work with a console on foreign at relations. 38 00:02:21,400 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 2: Patterson always citing smart people brad sets are publishing in 39 00:02:25,840 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 2: the last twenty four hours at the Council on Foreign 40 00:02:28,880 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 2: Relations on Pacific rim dollar dynamics. Here is Rebecca Patterson 41 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:36,000 Speaker 2: on that weeker dollar There's. 42 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,560 Speaker 3: One story that I think would be good for people 43 00:02:38,560 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 3: to read with their lobster role this weekend. My colleague 44 00:02:41,639 --> 00:02:44,960 Speaker 3: at CFR, Brad sets Are, published a piece yesterday on 45 00:02:45,080 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 3: balands of payments, looking at the Asian currencies and what 46 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:52,200 Speaker 3: he calls a reverse Asian financial crisis risk. I have 47 00:02:52,320 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 3: not had the chance yet to read this piece. I 48 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,760 Speaker 3: just read the top of it. But the idea is 49 00:02:57,800 --> 00:02:59,959 Speaker 3: that a lot of these currents have become very un 50 00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:04,240 Speaker 3: a valued and if they have to revalue and everything 51 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:06,840 Speaker 3: that comes with that, the owning of US treasuries by 52 00:03:06,919 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 3: Taiwan Life insurers, et cetera, you could have global ripple 53 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,400 Speaker 3: effects across asset classes. So I think that would be 54 00:03:13,639 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 3: useful reading for anyone who's thinking about contagion. 55 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:20,359 Speaker 2: Rebecca Patterson there the Council and Formulations also board member 56 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:24,799 Speaker 2: at Vanguard. We are halfway through the year and one 57 00:03:24,840 --> 00:03:28,920 Speaker 2: of the benchmarks of this new digital experiment was in 58 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 2: November of last year saying where would we be on 59 00:03:32,520 --> 00:03:37,280 Speaker 2: the fourth of July. And it is absolutely stunning the 60 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 2: growth that we've seen in YouTube. It is new, We're 61 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 2: learning every day. It is absolutely humbling to look at 62 00:03:46,720 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 2: digital the different ways of digital, the consumption of digital, 63 00:03:51,720 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 2: what people care about, what we see. There's a thing 64 00:03:54,640 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 2: called time spent listening or time spent watching, and it's 65 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 2: absolutely humbling the amount of time that people generate each 66 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:06,320 Speaker 2: and every morning to Bloomberg surveillance. That's of course on 67 00:04:06,480 --> 00:04:10,960 Speaker 2: radio and on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts at Apple, 68 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 2: at Spotify, at YouTube podcasts. This is a single best 69 00:04:14,760 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 2: idea