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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. Hello and welcome,

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Speaker 1: ladies and gentlemen, Friday, January fift a glorious weekend of

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Speaker 1: football ahead of us. A great interview later in the

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Speaker 1: podcast Mike Sando from The Athletic. He is the man

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Speaker 1: who has implemented the Tears Star quarterback system. It is

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Speaker 1: caught on basically like Bell Bottoms did back in the day,

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Speaker 1: like cargo pants. I know nobody still wears cargo pants

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Speaker 1: other than me. Um, but tears is a thing and

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Speaker 1: Mike Sando is credited with that. He will join the

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Speaker 1: podcast in a little bit, but first we gotta get

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Speaker 1: some big news. No, it is not the endless supply

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Speaker 1: of fat James Harden memes that are circulating. I posted

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Speaker 1: one that I just could not stop laughing at on

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Speaker 1: my Instagram stories. Kevin Durant is putting up, you know,

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Speaker 1: help me find Kyrie Irving signs around the Brooklyn neighborhood

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Speaker 1: the Lost Have you seen this person? And rolls up

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Speaker 1: and James Harden, who is like, you know, two pounds,

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Speaker 1: rolls up and he's like, yo, what it's just his hilarious.

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Speaker 1: I don't know if Rob G's laughing at those as

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Speaker 1: much as I am. I find them funny. But that's

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Speaker 1: not the big sports news of the day. The big

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Speaker 1: news Thursday what the New York Jets got a new

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Speaker 1: head coach. Robert Sala of the forty nine is the

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Speaker 1: defensive coordinator. He's now with the Jets. We will get

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Speaker 1: to Urban Meyer shortly. But the newer news was late

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Speaker 1: Thursday night. Robert Sala, Remember he was basically ticketed to

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Speaker 1: go to the Detroit Lions. I think it was old

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Speaker 1: buddy of mine, Pete Schrager. We're gonna have to get

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Speaker 1: him on the podcast. Um, he was talking up a

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Speaker 1: lot of the Detroit Lions, and like December and the

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Speaker 1: way he was mentioning in and other reporters backed that up.

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Speaker 1: It felt like a done deal. So Sala went and

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Speaker 1: interviewed in Detroit. Then he went to New York. Then

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Speaker 1: he would like right after New York, he went down

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Speaker 1: to Philly and within a couple of hours, boom, the

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Speaker 1: Jets had him. And I'm like, huh, maybe the Jets

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Speaker 1: job is more attractive than the Eagles. I thought the

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Speaker 1: Lion's job was very attractive. Matt Patricia out. Matt Stafford

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Speaker 1: still there at quarterback. I thought that was a good gig,

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Speaker 1: but again, you can never discount stuff. Who wasn't the

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Speaker 1: drop by the podcast Rob g who mentioned ownership was imperative.

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Speaker 1: I think it was Eric Mangini. And you know, Philly

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Speaker 1: ownership looks awful giving Doug Peterson, hey, we're good, thanks

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Speaker 1: are good. You're a tractive return, and then week seventeen happens.

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Speaker 1: You tank to help the team and then they fire you,

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Speaker 1: like that's a bad look for the owner of the GM.

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Speaker 1: Michael Lombardi, who I've tried to get on the podcast.

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Speaker 1: We were friendly, um, and he's just like giving me

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Speaker 1: the stiff arm repeatedly. I know Michael Bartie's big time

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Speaker 1: and every thing, um, but we had some fun times

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Speaker 1: on TV and he's come on my radio show before.

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Speaker 1: But he's savaged. I'm talking just picked apart the Eagles

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Speaker 1: in a piece absolute evisceration of the GM and ownership.

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Speaker 1: And I guess Robert Sala, the handsome, tough leader of

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Speaker 1: men from the Fort, he will come to New York

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Speaker 1: and word is he's gonna bring Mike Lafleur, the passing

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Speaker 1: game coordinator and younger brother of Matt Lafleur, the Packers coach. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they're both gonna come as I guess, a package deal

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Speaker 1: to the Jets. And I do like that because you

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Speaker 1: guys know how the NFL works right now. It's an

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Speaker 1: offensive league. Most of the young best coaches are offensive guys.

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Speaker 1: And if you get a hot offensive coordinator, he's tearing

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Speaker 1: it up one year, two years, he's gonna get a

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Speaker 1: head coaching job. So that's the only difficult getting Robert

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Speaker 1: sala is that his o C. If he does his

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Speaker 1: job and his kicking butt, he's gonna be gone in

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Speaker 1: a two years to to get a head coaching job.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I wanted an offensive guy. I can't complain.

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Speaker 1: Forty Niners defense, despite all the injuries, was great. We

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Speaker 1: talked about it. I forget who it was earlier this week,

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Speaker 1: but a bet on team next year is going to

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Speaker 1: be the Niners. Um they ended up. I think there

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Speaker 1: was one team that didn't make the playoffs in the

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Speaker 1: top twelve of the Football Outsiders and it was the

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Speaker 1: forty Niners. Uh. Their numbers were great despite losing Nick

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Speaker 1: Bosa and basically everyone else of consequence. UM so a

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Speaker 1: big hire for the Jets. Listen. Obviously I'm a Jets fan.

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Speaker 1: Rob g was talking to me about bringing on another

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Speaker 1: big Jets fan as a guest coming up, Um, and

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Speaker 1: it might happen. But yes, Urban Meyer to the Jacksonville

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Speaker 1: Jaguars is bigger news. And I'm gonna say this right now, Um.

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Speaker 1: Steve Spurrier was a great college football coach and he

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Speaker 1: didn't really make any waves in the NFL. Nick Saban

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Speaker 1: probably the greatest college football coach of all time, no

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Speaker 1: such luck in the NFL. If Urban Meyer is able

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Speaker 1: to win in Jacksonville, and you know he's gonna have

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence, so he's got a massive head start. He's

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Speaker 1: gonna go into that upper crust of winning a title

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Speaker 1: in college and winning in the NFL. And when we

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Speaker 1: get into these fun discussions who's better Lebron or Jordan's,

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Speaker 1: who's the best quarterback of all time, who's the best

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Speaker 1: coach of all time? I'm telling you, if Urban wins

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Speaker 1: in NFL Super Bowl with Trevor Lawrence, Urban is gonna

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Speaker 1: be in that discussion. I know that Belichick has the big, big, big,

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Speaker 1: huge lead, no doubt, probably uncatchable, But when you look

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Speaker 1: at winning in college and winning in the NFL. Only

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Speaker 1: one coach has done that, Pete Carroll. I mean, it's

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Speaker 1: an underrated aspect of Carol's legacy. Right, wins the title

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Speaker 1: at USC goes to the NFL wins in Seattle with

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson, who was the third round pick. Like listen,

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Speaker 1: Pete Carroll's definitely got to be on the shortlist of

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Speaker 1: greatest football coaches of all time. People aren't gonna want

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Speaker 1: to give him the props. He should have two Super Bowls, right,

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Speaker 1: if not for that awful pass call inside the five

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Speaker 1: yard line at the end of the game. But we

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Speaker 1: won't revisit that. I think Urban is gonna have a

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Speaker 1: real opportunity to have some good fortunes early. First of all,

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Speaker 1: the division, Yes, it had two playoff teams this past year,

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Speaker 1: but neither is a lock to return. Coats quarterback uncertainty. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry, and I'm gonna mention this again, three hundred

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Speaker 1: and seventy is one of the key numbers this offseason.

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry had three hundred and seventy carries. That is

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Speaker 1: the line where the stat guys have looked at and

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Speaker 1: if a running back has over three seventy carries. I

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Speaker 1: think of the time he is awful the next year

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Speaker 1: or gets injured. That's what Derrick Henry had this past season.

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Speaker 1: And if you remember, he had three seventy in the

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Speaker 1: regular season finale and what happened in the playoff game.

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Speaker 1: Guy was running like he had a piano on his back.

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Speaker 1: I think he had forty yards rushing. And I'm just

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Speaker 1: telling you the numbers. Guys are gonna be terrified of

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry. By the way, the Titans defense stinks. That's

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Speaker 1: not a playoff team next year. And then the other

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Speaker 1: team in the division is the Texans, who have a

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Speaker 1: star quarterback and nothing else. There's gonna be a chance

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Speaker 1: for Urban Meyer to win pretty damn quickly in Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: I'm talking he could get to the playoffs in two years.

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Speaker 1: Remember Andrew Luck got to the playoffs his first three

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Speaker 1: years as a colts player. There are quarterbacks that can

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Speaker 1: elevate the play of everyone around them, and I believe

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Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence is one of those guys. They already have

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Speaker 1: a couple of really nice pieces in place. Laviska shen

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Speaker 1: Alt had a very good rookie year. The kid Robinson

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Speaker 1: undrafted rookie went over a thousand yards. Looks like a keeper. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, I'm not gonna get too excited about Keelan

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Speaker 1: cole Uh. He was a solid number three receiver. DJ

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Speaker 1: Shark is a promising to I don't know if he's

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Speaker 1: a number one um. But Jacksonville has the extra draft picks.

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Speaker 1: You get Trevor Lawrence, you go out and get I

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Speaker 1: don't somebody in the second round at receiver, maybe you

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Speaker 1: get a tackle, and then I think every other pick

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Speaker 1: has to be defense. You spend the salary cap money

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Speaker 1: on defense and the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'll put it down

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Speaker 1: right now. You guys can tag old takes exposed on

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Speaker 1: this one. Jacksonville in two years will be in the

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Speaker 1: NFL playoffs. That's where urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence are headed.

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Speaker 1: I'm extremely bullish on them. Now, somebody who is not

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Speaker 1: nearly as bullish, that's Rob g. Yeah, that that would

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Speaker 1: be an understatement to say that I'm not bullish on

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Speaker 1: the Urban Meyer higher And and it's not that I

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Speaker 1: don't think he's a good coach. I think he is

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Speaker 1: a fantastic coach for the college game. I do not

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Speaker 1: trust him in any way, shape or form in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: What made him successful at Florida and Ohio's days, specifically

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Speaker 1: was his ability to recruit. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: know this, but during his last twelve recruiting cycles, he

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Speaker 1: had thirty five five star players, which means seven percent

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Speaker 1: of every single five star recruit went to Urban Meyer.

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Speaker 1: Now that might have seemed like a lot, but in

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Speaker 1: the grand schemes of of football recruiting, that's a huge number.

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Speaker 1: And you know, the spread offense he ran at Utah

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Speaker 1: is no longer innovative, So I don't know you can

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Speaker 1: take that out of out of there. And so if

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Speaker 1: you're just gonna say, well, what makes Urban Meyer a

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Speaker 1: great coach, he's a fantastic recruiter, which we're not gonna

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Speaker 1: matter the NFL because there's a salary cap and he

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Speaker 1: isn't get He just picked the best players. And he's

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Speaker 1: a very strong attention to detail, micromanaging kind of guy,

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Speaker 1: which is awesome in college. What made him very successful,

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Speaker 1: and it's also what led to him retiring three separate

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Speaker 1: times because he got so stressed out and almost give

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Speaker 1: himself a heart attack. The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost almost

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Speaker 1: as many games, actually more games in the span then

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Speaker 1: Ohio State and Florida did combined. So I'm not high

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Speaker 1: on the urban Meyer higher. I think that he's fantastic

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Speaker 1: for college in the NFL. Everything that makes him great

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Speaker 1: is not going to translate, as crazy as it sounds.

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Speaker 1: And again you put on old takes exposed. Well, everyone

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Speaker 1: cares what I think on old days exposed. But they

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Speaker 1: would have been better off hiring Jim Harball than they

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Speaker 1: would have been with urban Meyer. That's what I would say.

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Speaker 1: So I guess my counter to that would be, Um,

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Speaker 1: the spotlight was on him at Florida and that they

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Speaker 1: were out to get him. Once some of this news

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Speaker 1: of players getting arrested. Once that started to snowball, they

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Speaker 1: went after urban Meyer. Remember he kept the media at bay.

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Speaker 1: He had kind of a prickly relationship with the media

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Speaker 1: UM in the SEC. And then they went after when

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Speaker 1: Aaron Hernandez and a bunch of other players got arrested

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Speaker 1: and in trouble. Um urban did work at Fox for

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Speaker 1: I guess the last year, I will be completely honest,

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Speaker 1: did not speak to him once. Um. He you know,

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Speaker 1: I want to say he's a leader of men, but

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Speaker 1: I'm sure a lot of people out there would say,

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Speaker 1: what do you mean, look at all these kids getting

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Speaker 1: in trouble. Um. During six years at Florida, thirty one

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Speaker 1: players arrested at least ten accused of crimes ranging from

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Speaker 1: misdemeanor battery. It's a felony domestic assault. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: listen if you want to be an optimist. And my

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Speaker 1: wife was honestly voted the class optimist in her high school.

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Speaker 1: So some of that is rubbing off on me. You

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Speaker 1: guys know I'm a pessimist given listening to the podcast

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Speaker 1: for five months and being a Jets fan. UM, I

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Speaker 1: think part of me. And again I had not spoken

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Speaker 1: Urban Meyer about this. He wants to clean up that

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Speaker 1: image because some of it carried over to Ohio State.

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Speaker 1: There was that assistant coach and he turned that assistant

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Speaker 1: coach really screwed up badly. He's an idiot, UM, And

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Speaker 1: I think Urban wants to Um. He doesn't want his

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Speaker 1: coaching career to end on that note. And now you

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Speaker 1: get to go to the NFL and have the best

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Speaker 1: quarterback prospect in over a decade. I mean that's gonna

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Speaker 1: make life kind of easy. You can worry about everything

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Speaker 1: else when you know you don't have to worry about

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Speaker 1: your quarterback. Your quarterback is not gonna keep you up

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Speaker 1: at night. There's stories of college football coaches and they

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Speaker 1: can't sleep at night because they don't know if their

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Speaker 1: star players are gonna be getting in trouble in and

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Speaker 1: around campus. Okay, I don't know that that's going to

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Speaker 1: be an issue for Urban Meyer and Jacksonville. And let's

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Speaker 1: remind everybody, Rob Jacksonville has been joked about as like

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Speaker 1: the London franchise. There's not a major media presence around Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: You know, this isn't the New York Jets. Uh, this

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Speaker 1: isn't a major market team. Jacksonville has flown under the

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Speaker 1: radar forever. Um, I think Urban will find success there. Uh,

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Speaker 1: let's see what offensive coordinator is. There was some speculation

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Speaker 1: about a name. I'm not gonna put it out there

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Speaker 1: because it wasn't an impressive name. Um, we don't know

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Speaker 1: who he's gonna get on defense, but that division, I mean, Rob,

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Speaker 1: you would agree. In the last decade it has been

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Speaker 1: since Peyton Manning left, probably one of the weakest in

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Speaker 1: the NFL. Jacksonville did get to an f C title game.

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Speaker 1: Houston has had some playoff appearances. Tennessee got to an

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Speaker 1: an f C title game, but none of these teams

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Speaker 1: were great. And the other thing is uncertainty at quarterback

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Speaker 1: for the Colts going forward. I mean Ryan Tannehill will

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Speaker 1: see like he's been really good for a year and

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Speaker 1: a half. Okay, can you continue that? And I love

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Speaker 1: DeShawn Watson, but Texans have a bottom five roster in

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Speaker 1: the league. So Rob G and I split on this one.

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Speaker 1: On Urban Meyer's success, rob G, do you have any

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Speaker 1: deep thoughts on Robert Salah. Yeah, actually kind of agree

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Speaker 1: with you in the sense that I don't think that

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Speaker 1: he is being set up the best way to succeed,

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Speaker 1: not because of the Jets franchise or anything like that,

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Speaker 1: but because he's a defensive coach. And um, Mike Florio

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Speaker 1: Pro Football Talk t wee did this out early early Thursday,

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Speaker 1: before it was even you know, known that sala was

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Speaker 1: a front runner or was going to get the job.

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Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer has already had five different offensive coordinators in

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Speaker 1: Minnesota and their offenses never been you know, great. Mike Rabel,

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Speaker 1: because we assume that his offensive corner is gonna leave

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Speaker 1: this offseason, is about to have his second or lose

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Speaker 1: a second in only three years. So the problem in

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Speaker 1: the NFL you brought it up is that everybody wants

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Speaker 1: the next hot shot offensive guy. So either whoever he

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Speaker 1: the floor guy that he's that's I was hiring him,

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Speaker 1: forget his first name. He's either yet he's either gonna

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Speaker 1: flame out and Robert Slaw is gonna get fired because

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Speaker 1: the team's gonna suck, or he's gonna do fantastically and

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Speaker 1: in two years is gonna need another offensive coordinator. And

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Speaker 1: that much changeover is never good for anybody, like you know,

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Speaker 1: especially if you have a young quarterback. The thing that

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Speaker 1: has made a lot of guys set up to succeed

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys set up to fail Alex Smith

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Speaker 1: being I think one of the biggest examples is when

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Speaker 1: you have that much changeover at the offensive coordinator with

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Speaker 1: a young quarterback, he's never gonna become anything special. You

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Speaker 1: At best, you might get a Kirk Cousins type and

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Speaker 1: um that that's the drawback to hiring a defensive coach.

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Speaker 1: And that's my only concerned about it is that he's

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Speaker 1: kind of in stuck between a rock and hard place

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Speaker 1: with that offensive coordinator either is a new bad and

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Speaker 1: he's gonna get fired, or isn't great and he's gonna

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Speaker 1: be stuck in this you know, revolving door of I

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Speaker 1: don't like it, and I guess final note before we

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Speaker 1: get to Mike Sando and of course the best bet

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Speaker 1: playoff divisional picks will be at the end of the podcast. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, Rob g we we've been talking about Sam

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Speaker 1: Donald landing spots and Kyle Shanahan's offense has made a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense. Um, the Jets just hired to be

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Speaker 1: their o C. Kyle Shanahan's passing game coordinator. You know,

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Speaker 1: is he gonna look around and say, why do I

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Speaker 1: want a rookie? We got Sam Donald, Let's coach him

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Speaker 1: up and that'll be Sam Donald's third different offense, you know,

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Speaker 1: and let's say you do that. I'm not a fan

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Speaker 1: of that because you gotta pay Donald in two years.

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Speaker 1: If Lafleur is killing it, he's gonna get a head

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Speaker 1: coaching job. And then you got to bring in a

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Speaker 1: new guy to be the offensive coordinator. Like, I had

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Speaker 1: some concerns, but again I'm a Jets fan, so obviously

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Speaker 1: I'm concerned about stuff. Um, all right, so that is

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Speaker 1: the big sports news from Thursday night. Let's get now

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Speaker 1: to Mike Sando of the Athletic. Jason likes to think

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Speaker 1: he knows everything when it comes to sports. I know

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Speaker 1: what sports stands want, but for everything he doesn't. He

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Speaker 1: knows a guy who does. Let's just say, I know

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Speaker 1: a guy who knows a guy who knows another guy.

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Speaker 1: All right, let's welcome into straight fire, a guy who listen.

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Speaker 1: I'm not hyping him up too much, but he basically

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Speaker 1: has revolutionized the way we grade quarterbacks. His tears system

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Speaker 1: has been copied in the NBA, UH, college football, NHL,

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Speaker 1: like everywhere. Mike Sando from the Athletic, Mike, how are

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Speaker 1: you man? I am doing well. Thank you for that

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Speaker 1: flattering introduction. Yeah, I don't. I don't want to oversell you,

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Speaker 1: but I mean I gotta say, like, you know, when

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Speaker 1: you read around, this tears thing is really caught on.

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Speaker 1: I'll just start there. What gave you the idea to

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Speaker 1: rank it in tears? Well? I think my mind has

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Speaker 1: kind of worked that way in trying to make sense

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Speaker 1: of usually a lot of information right where we got

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Speaker 1: a lot of teams or we have a lot of

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Speaker 1: players and we're trying to make sense of them all.

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Speaker 1: And so instead of ranking one to thirty two, I

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Speaker 1: mean that's sort of hard to do. You kind of

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Speaker 1: put people in categories, and me talking to people in

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Speaker 1: the league really trying to learn, um, what differentiates the quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: you know, And I think the tier system really works because, uh,

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Speaker 1: it's basically a degree of how much help you need

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Speaker 1: from what's around you. Okay, that's really what it is.

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Speaker 1: So if you're in Tier one, uh, you obviously need

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Speaker 1: some good teammates, but you need less help, right And

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Speaker 1: if you go the lower you get down in the tiers.

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Speaker 1: It just makes sense that in the the third tier

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Speaker 1: you could win with let's just say Andy Dalton when

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Speaker 1: he was playing, You can win with Andy Dalton. They did,

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Speaker 1: but they had a really good offensive line, they had

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Speaker 1: really good weaponry, they had a top half of the

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Speaker 1: league defense. And as those things stripped away, Um, it

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Speaker 1: was easier to see the difference between him the top quarterbacks.

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Speaker 1: When all those things were there, his numbers looked like

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Speaker 1: the top quarterbacks. But I think you know, people in

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Speaker 1: the league knew um what he was and that he

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Speaker 1: needed that help, and so I think the tears help

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Speaker 1: us conceptualize that. And so it wasn't like I just

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Speaker 1: one day had the tears. If you go back and

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Speaker 1: read my initial ones, when as at ESPN we sort

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Speaker 1: of developed it, the first Quarterback Tears fourteen wasn't as

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Speaker 1: rigidly defined. We didn't have as clear definitions for what

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Speaker 1: each tier was, and that's the part that sort of

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Speaker 1: developed over time and gotten to be pretty specific. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's uh, you know, when you look at this weekend's

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Speaker 1: NFL games and you put the quarterbacks into tears, it

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Speaker 1: gets real interesting. We'll get to those games in a minute.

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Speaker 1: But as we record this Thursday, the big news is

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Speaker 1: that Urban Meyer has agreed to go to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they have the number one picket will probably be Trevor Lawrence.

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Speaker 1: I can't imagine a scenario, um you know where it's not.

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Speaker 1: But I did notice on your Quarterback Tears it's tough

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Speaker 1: for rookies to crack that list. I mean, I know

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Speaker 1: it's early. I don't expect that you've done massive amounts

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Speaker 1: of homework on Trevor Lawrence. But this is a guy

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Speaker 1: who we've known about for several years. Just off the

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Speaker 1: top of your head, what with urban Meyer as his coach,

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Speaker 1: given what urban Meyer has done to Tim Tebow with

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Speaker 1: Florida Alex Smith before that, um any idea where Trevor

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Speaker 1: Lawrence could debut when you put out the tiers list

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Speaker 1: this summer. Yes, So in the last few years I

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Speaker 1: stopped putting rookies in the poll like before they played.

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Speaker 1: So I waited till their first year because what happens

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Speaker 1: like in the tiers I'm talking to fifty people right well, shoot,

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Speaker 1: twenty five of them didn't look at the rookies hard

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Speaker 1: this year, you know what I mean. They need the

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Speaker 1: year to see him. So I took that out. But

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Speaker 1: I think we've seen, like I think Kyler Murray, maybe

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Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield after his rookie year. They were coming in

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Speaker 1: at like the top of the third tier, even threatening

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Speaker 1: the bottom of the second tier early. So I would

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Speaker 1: think given the excitement for Lawrence, which seems to be

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Speaker 1: on par all almost Andrew Luckish, I mean, it seems different.

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Speaker 1: It's different than like when Goff and Wentz came out.

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Speaker 1: People were like, hey, you know you need a quarterback,

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Speaker 1: but you'd have a lot of people say, really, just

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Speaker 1: from the total package standpoint, we've probably taking these guys

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Speaker 1: at the top of the second round, you know what

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's what people felt. People aren't saying that

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Speaker 1: about Lawrence, are saying, hey, you hear generational or these

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Speaker 1: types of things, and that may be overselling it, but

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Speaker 1: I think you'd want him to be, uh, you know,

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Speaker 1: threatening that second tier early. All right, one more before

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Speaker 1: we get to the playoff games. Since we're talking third tier. Um,

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Speaker 1: I don't even know if he cries the third As

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Speaker 1: a Jets fan, I have to ask about Sam Donald. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, it's been a little unfair to him, given

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Speaker 1: that he's had a couple of coaches already, and it's

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Speaker 1: not like he's got skill position players around him that are, um,

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Speaker 1: you would even say average around the league. How tough

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Speaker 1: of a of a grade is Sam Donald at this

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Speaker 1: juncture career? Yeah, I think it's I think it's a

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Speaker 1: little tough. But for those reasons you talked about, you know,

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Speaker 1: I think there was actually probably too much focus on

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Speaker 1: Adam Gaze the coaching. They don't any players, you know,

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Speaker 1: I mean that's where you start. I did a thing

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Speaker 1: before this season looking at the support that each quarterback

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Speaker 1: has had over the last four years. It was two thousand,

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Speaker 1: sixteen to nineteen, there was one team in the league

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Speaker 1: that had zero starts on offense take away the quarterback

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Speaker 1: position by someone who made the Pro Bowl. There was

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Speaker 1: one team. It was the Jets, the Steelers, and the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: Two some starts on offense over a four year period

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Speaker 1: by guys who were good enough to at least be

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Speaker 1: in that conversation to be named to a Pro Bowl,

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Speaker 1: like named to it, not not on in a replacement,

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Speaker 1: but named to it. Um, that's where you start. So

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Speaker 1: I think he always is going to have a little

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Speaker 1: bit of the issue of he seems more comfortable when

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Speaker 1: he gets off schedule and so, like he's an instinctive player,

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Speaker 1: but he was a little bit of a risk taker.

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Speaker 1: It probably takes some really elite coaching to get that

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Speaker 1: out of you. We've seen that maybe with with h

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Speaker 1: Buffalo Um Josh Allen, Right, we've seen improvement there. Can

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Speaker 1: you bank on that? Can you pass on somebody who's

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Speaker 1: better in the draft to hold out hope for that?

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Speaker 1: I mean, that's a tough internal discussion that they have

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Speaker 1: to have. I don't know how you could put him

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Speaker 1: above low tier three, which is where he was at,

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Speaker 1: which is kind of like, hey, um, you can be

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Speaker 1: a starter in the league, but you need a lot

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Speaker 1: of help around you. I think I think that's where

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Speaker 1: you would start with this, that he's a third deer

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Speaker 1: quarterback with maybe the ceiling of a two. All right,

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Speaker 1: let's get to this weekend's games. Mike, you wrote about

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Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers this week and I was reading it crazy.

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Speaker 1: This is the kind of stat that you'll unearth that

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Speaker 1: I don't see anywhere else. Last year, the Packers dropped

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00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,840
Speaker 1: sixty nine passes and fifteen touchdowns or I guess the

427
00:22:55,840 --> 00:22:58,960
Speaker 1: technically the word has missed just opportunity. It's not all

428
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,320
Speaker 1: a blatant drop. You know, two hands goes through and

429
00:23:01,400 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 1: hits you in the face. Mast tests and we're talking.

430
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,600
Speaker 1: We're talking about you're running down the sideline and the

431
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 1: balls there to get. But during your route, we could

432
00:23:09,320 --> 00:23:12,199
Speaker 1: see that you slowed up during the route because you

433
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: didn't think it was coming to you. And this is

434
00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 1: me watching it sometimes with coaches. I'll watch the watch

435
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,640
Speaker 1: the video with coaches sometimes and then he doesn't quite

436
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,240
Speaker 1: get there to it, and you're going, hey, that's a

437
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: that's a that's a catchup pro receiver makes, not every time,

438
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 1: but off the charts. Yes, it was off the charts

439
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:31,320
Speaker 1: last year. And what got me going on that was

440
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,160
Speaker 1: in my quarterback Tears poll. All the guys are saying

441
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,119
Speaker 1: Rogers just Tier one, But as we look at the stats,

442
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:41,960
Speaker 1: they're not tier one stats anymore. There's a drop. So

443
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 1: what we did is we decided, let's watch all of

444
00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 1: his incomplete passes. He's incomplete passes last year are better

445
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:53,840
Speaker 1: than other guys completed passes, unbelievable Chicago earlier the year,

446
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:58,000
Speaker 1: he's running from midfield, sprinting to his right way out,

447
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:01,440
Speaker 1: like I said, outside the numbers, almost spins it across

448
00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:03,840
Speaker 1: this body to Jimmy Graham at the five yard line.

449
00:24:03,840 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 1: On the other hash goes hit him in the shoulder pad. Yeah,

450
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,760
Speaker 1: you know that type of stuff is what Rogers did.

451
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:14,679
Speaker 1: You know? And this year there's two things going on.

452
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 1: Number one so much, it's just in the structure of

453
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:19,040
Speaker 1: the offense. He's not having to run around and do that.

454
00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:22,040
Speaker 1: If you notice that he's not making as many spectacular plays,

455
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:25,520
Speaker 1: he's not making as many spectacular throws running all over

456
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: the place because the offense is working, and then too

457
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,000
Speaker 1: Adams is playing amazing, even he's he's even better. And

458
00:24:33,040 --> 00:24:37,840
Speaker 1: then the last ten twelve games they've had way fewer

459
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 1: of those just obvious open with a game thirty yarders.

460
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 1: So it's been good to see for them. So, okay,

461
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: reading your piece, and I gotta ask Mike, Like, if

462
00:24:49,320 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was so great last year the coaches could

463
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 1: see it, Um, the receivers and running backs and tight

464
00:24:55,040 --> 00:24:57,440
Speaker 1: ends dropped a lot or missed a lot, why would

465
00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 1: they draft a quarterback in the first round? Like it?

466
00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 1: To disconnect there is even more startling reading your piece. Yeah,

467
00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 1: absolutely well, they may have thought that they were confident

468
00:25:09,680 --> 00:25:13,280
Speaker 1: in developing who they had a receiver, uh, and that

469
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: they didn't see somebody in that spot who would be

470
00:25:17,560 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 1: worthy of the picket receiver. If you go back and

471
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 1: look at who is available at the receiver position and

472
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,480
Speaker 1: what they've done this year, there's actually not a ton

473
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 1: of There's not a million guys who are who have

474
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: fifty five catches for a thousand yards. There's not So

475
00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:33,760
Speaker 1: that can be part of it. I think also they

476
00:25:33,960 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 1: are very confident in Matt lafure system um that they

477
00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:46,360
Speaker 1: probably think that Love could do fine in a few

478
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,000
Speaker 1: years and that they liked them and they were convicted

479
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 1: on that. And so when you look at Brian Gudencoost Goodacoost.

480
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: He comes from on Wolf and they've had a philosophy

481
00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:57,160
Speaker 1: of doing that. I mean, I still think that they

482
00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 1: could fall short this year because of the receivers, because

483
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 1: they didn't do more at that position. Because when when

484
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:12,199
Speaker 1: their offense is working and they're balanced, they're impossible to defending.

485
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 1: Guys are open and Rogers just finds them when they

486
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,640
Speaker 1: play a team like that when they played Tampa and

487
00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: there's uh, or like the forty nine is even last

488
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: year when they could really pressure or they could take

489
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:27,320
Speaker 1: make you one dimensional, take away the run game. Who's

490
00:26:27,359 --> 00:26:30,280
Speaker 1: winning for them besides Davanta Adams, John t Adams will win,

491
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:34,439
Speaker 1: We'll win. But maybe you play a team that doubles

492
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,480
Speaker 1: him or has Jillen Ramsey or whatever, who else on

493
00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,600
Speaker 1: their team can win outside the offense. I think that's

494
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:44,680
Speaker 1: a great question. And Mike, let me let me follow

495
00:26:44,720 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 1: up with that, like this is a Packers team that

496
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 1: played the thirty feet strength of schedule in the league. Uh,

497
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 1: you look up and down the rock, like what did

498
00:26:53,119 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: they do against good teams? Like they haven't played a

499
00:26:56,000 --> 00:26:59,280
Speaker 1: lot of teams with winning records. They got smashed by Tampa. Like,

500
00:26:59,560 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 1: I almost think the Packers are a little overrated here.

501
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,760
Speaker 1: I just can't get over the Rams injuries. Um, the Rams.

502
00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:07,359
Speaker 1: I don't know if they can score enough, you know,

503
00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,360
Speaker 1: to keep you take them out? What do you think?

504
00:27:10,400 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: Go ahead, finish your thought. I was I just you know,

505
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: Aaron Donald's not practicing this week. But McVeagh says, oh yeah,

506
00:27:16,720 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 1: he's gonna play Cooper Cup banged up knee. You know,

507
00:27:20,600 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 1: I don't trust Jared Goff, by the way, where is

508
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 1: he on your quarterback tears? Yeah? You know, Jared Goff

509
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,200
Speaker 1: sort of has settled into that third tier, you know

510
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:32,680
Speaker 1: some of the somewhat you know, it's it's potentially unfair,

511
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,880
Speaker 1: but I think that perception of hey, he was absolute garbage.

512
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 1: And then Sean McVeigh showed up and he was telling

513
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,240
Speaker 1: him what the play is on, gonna play until fifteen

514
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: seconds on the play clock, and then when the run

515
00:27:42,600 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: game is or isn't there. It really affects how he looks. Right,

516
00:27:45,640 --> 00:27:48,439
Speaker 1: we don't see we see him make some great throws.

517
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 1: We don't see him consistently elevate them, right. We see

518
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,400
Speaker 1: him look good when it's looking good, but not necessarily

519
00:27:54,440 --> 00:27:55,919
Speaker 1: be able to pull them out of it when it's not.

520
00:27:56,040 --> 00:27:58,560
Speaker 1: And so that's classic Tier three. But he probably throws

521
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 1: the ball better than than that. At his best, he

522
00:28:00,840 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: does make some really good throws. Um. All right, let's

523
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,680
Speaker 1: go to which I think is probably the biggest gap

524
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: in quarterbacks, Patrick mahomes Uh, you know, best quarterback in

525
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:11,720
Speaker 1: the league. I know Rogers will probably win the MVP

526
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:14,720
Speaker 1: going up against Baker Mayfield. Big spread on this one

527
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: of ten, But Mike, I'll start here. We have seen

528
00:28:19,280 --> 00:28:23,119
Speaker 1: teams have to sit their starters in week seventeen, have

529
00:28:23,240 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 1: a bye, and then come out flat. We've seen that,

530
00:28:26,359 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 1: and we've seen Kansas City for two months kind of

531
00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:32,520
Speaker 1: sleepwalk through games coming off the Super Bowl. Can Baker

532
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 1: Mayfield make this game interesting? Well? I don't want to

533
00:28:36,880 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: see him in a pure drop back situation where they're

534
00:28:39,560 --> 00:28:41,040
Speaker 1: down by twenty points. But I don't want to see

535
00:28:41,040 --> 00:28:44,320
Speaker 1: a lot of guys like that, you know what I mean? Um?

536
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 1: I Also, if I could pick one team to be

537
00:28:46,480 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: coming off of a bye, it's Andy Reid team, right

538
00:28:48,360 --> 00:28:50,440
Speaker 1: That was always a story for years, like hey, Andy

539
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:54,000
Speaker 1: Reid's record after the bye. So I think in this season, um,

540
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,480
Speaker 1: when I think the season has been a real grind

541
00:28:56,640 --> 00:29:00,320
Speaker 1: for more than we can see because of the I've

542
00:29:00,320 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 1: talked to people on teams, necessarily players, but who were like, hey,

543
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:07,120
Speaker 1: if we don't make the playoffs, there's a there's or

544
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: when our season is done, there's a bigger relief than

545
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: normal because it's daily testing. You didn't even get a

546
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 1: buy a week. You keep going to the facility and

547
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 1: you're not the parts of the game that are fun. Um,

548
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 1: having beers at a film session of the guy at

549
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: the left tackles house on Thursday, or hang out in

550
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 1: the locker room and playing cards, or just screwing around

551
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: and and growing wads of tape at each other, you

552
00:29:29,840 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: know what I mean, And sending a prank with somebody,

553
00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 1: um telling, having the rookies show up at the supermarket

554
00:29:35,120 --> 00:29:37,440
Speaker 1: for the fake promotion. You know that that while it's

555
00:29:37,440 --> 00:29:39,400
Speaker 1: all on camera, you know, those are the things that

556
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: guys missed when they when it's over. Those aren't happening

557
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:43,200
Speaker 1: this year. And I think there's a grind of the

558
00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 1: season that maybe, you know, maybe getting a little bit

559
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: of a break before the playoffs isn't such a bad thing. Um,

560
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,120
Speaker 1: I do have a note for you though, I was

561
00:29:52,200 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 1: just looking at this. This is counter intuitive. Most games

562
00:29:57,320 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: this season with forty or more points score word, Okay,

563
00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:08,160
Speaker 1: Tennessee five, Cleveland four, Tampa four, Green Bay four, Buffalo three,

564
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:12,360
Speaker 1: canc City's got one. So we really think of this

565
00:30:12,880 --> 00:30:16,560
Speaker 1: uh as being a game where hey, look, they're not

566
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,000
Speaker 1: gonna be able to keep up with mahomes. You can't

567
00:30:19,080 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: be getting too a shootout if there's too many points scored. Um,

568
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 1: that really favors Kansas City. But they Cleveland's put up

569
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,840
Speaker 1: forty plus on Baltimore. You know, they've put up points

570
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 1: on Tennessee tennis. You know what I mean? Yeah, yeah, yeah,

571
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,760
Speaker 1: So that interests to me a little bit. Um, I

572
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:44,400
Speaker 1: was just looking now. So therefore, so the Browns are

573
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: four and three this year against top ten defenses. That's

574
00:30:48,560 --> 00:30:51,800
Speaker 1: top ten e p A. Expected points added, they averaged

575
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:57,200
Speaker 1: they all, yeah, they only averaged twenty four points a

576
00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 1: game on those teams. They're still pretty good against against

577
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 1: really good d fenses. In is not one of those defenses.

578
00:31:02,080 --> 00:31:05,400
Speaker 1: So I do I mean, there's no way to quantify it,

579
00:31:05,440 --> 00:31:08,600
Speaker 1: and you're a big numbers guy, clearly, Mike. But this

580
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:11,400
Speaker 1: idea of the Super Bowl hangover. I know it's a

581
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:15,720
Speaker 1: silly narrative, but just the desire, the quest to win

582
00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: when you just watch them, I don't want to say

583
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: it looks like they're going through the motions, but it

584
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: feels like a team that just feels like, all right,

585
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: we gotta turn it on, let's go. You know that's

586
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,400
Speaker 1: an eye test thing, right it is. I believe that's

587
00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:32,000
Speaker 1: just human nature. When you when you win the lottery.

588
00:31:32,040 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: It's hard to go to work at six am every day,

589
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 1: you know what I mean, when you're worried about not

590
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: getting your contractor nude, or not having a job, or

591
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,000
Speaker 1: losing it to the guy, the guy in the office

592
00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 1: who's kind of the up and comer. You get there

593
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:47,040
Speaker 1: at five thirty every day, and I think it's just

594
00:31:47,120 --> 00:31:50,000
Speaker 1: hard to fake hunger, right, you're either hungry or you're not.

595
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:53,400
Speaker 1: And once you've eaten, you're not as hungry, once you've

596
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: gotten paid. You know, it takes a special person to

597
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:01,000
Speaker 1: keep driving. And I think there's a lot of special

598
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: people in Kansas. Study and you read Grinds. He's in

599
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:05,520
Speaker 1: that office all the time. I think these guys work

600
00:32:05,560 --> 00:32:07,960
Speaker 1: at it, but it's hard to It's hard to fake hunger.

601
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 1: And I think they've actually done a good job winning

602
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:14,160
Speaker 1: these winning some of these games they've been closer. Yeah,

603
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:17,640
Speaker 1: you know, but I'm anxious to see. Does that is

604
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 1: that indicative of something in a negative way or now,

605
00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 1: when your backs are really against the wall, you turn

606
00:32:22,640 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 1: it up. That said, they were down twenty four nothing

607
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 1: the Houston the playoffs. Last last year was the year

608
00:32:27,200 --> 00:32:29,680
Speaker 1: they were down double digits six times and went five

609
00:32:29,680 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: and one. I don't think they've had that as much

610
00:32:31,320 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 1: this year, have they been I don't think they've been

611
00:32:33,200 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 1: down as much. They just haven't been pulling away by

612
00:32:36,440 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: three scores. It feels like and that's this is tough

613
00:32:40,080 --> 00:32:43,600
Speaker 1: to quantify, but you you look at Tom Brady and

614
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 1: for whatever reason, it feels like he's the guy six rings,

615
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 1: but he's still hungry. Um, he already won the breakup

616
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,480
Speaker 1: with Belichick. You know, he made the playoffs, won a game.

617
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:56,560
Speaker 1: But I don't know, Mike, I I kind of feel

618
00:32:56,600 --> 00:33:00,840
Speaker 1: strongly about New Orleans in this spot. Yeah. I was

619
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: actually thinking about this last night because I feel tempted

620
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: depict Tampa Bay. I've just been tempted, like I've wanted to,

621
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,239
Speaker 1: but I think it's I think we're if we do that,

622
00:33:13,280 --> 00:33:15,320
Speaker 1: we're sort of sleeping on the Saints defense in their

623
00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:19,200
Speaker 1: front and ability, uh two in their secondary really for

624
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:20,440
Speaker 1: that matter. I mean, I think they have been a

625
00:33:20,440 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 1: good defense, and what I'm looking for in this game

626
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 1: is evidence that Bruce Arians can move the needle. Coaching wise, Okay,

627
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 1: I feel like they've done an okay job of of

628
00:33:31,280 --> 00:33:34,080
Speaker 1: getting Brady going and yeah, obviously had forty touchdowns, but

629
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 1: it was a little bit of a struggle. I felt

630
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,640
Speaker 1: like they should have in the off season signed more

631
00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:40,720
Speaker 1: of a receiving back and giving him a little bit

632
00:33:40,720 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 1: more of what helped him have quick answers to pressure

633
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:47,200
Speaker 1: and that type of stuff because he can't move. Um,

634
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:51,400
Speaker 1: they've gained momentum here, but they're owing two against the

635
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 1: Saints and they got smoked the last time. And where

636
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:57,920
Speaker 1: you know, I think Sean Payton doesn't Sean Payton has

637
00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: done a great job of hey winning with as Hill,

638
00:34:00,720 --> 00:34:05,080
Speaker 1: winning with a diminished breeze, finding different ways to do it.

639
00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 1: Can Arians have a move on the chessboard to give

640
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:14,760
Speaker 1: his team and edge against a really well oiled machine

641
00:34:15,080 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 1: in New Orleans. If you're doing it for a long time,

642
00:34:17,400 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 1: it's kind of what I want to see, right, not

643
00:34:19,120 --> 00:34:21,560
Speaker 1: just that Brady had a great game or whatever. You

644
00:34:21,800 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: could probably argue that. And this is not a slight

645
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: to Bruce arians He's got Super Bowl rings, you know,

646
00:34:26,239 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 1: as an assistant. He's the weakest head coach left of

647
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: the eight teams. Does that mean I mean you're laughing. Well,

648
00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:36,440
Speaker 1: here's why I'm laughing because I when when before twenty

649
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 1: minutes before we started, I uh texted your producer and

650
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:41,760
Speaker 1: I was like, hey, we just hit me some topics.

651
00:34:41,760 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 1: He's like one of them was like best and worst

652
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 1: coach left. I'm like, great, this is gonna be a

653
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 1: tweet Sando coach remaining is. But when I was really

654
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:54,560
Speaker 1: struck by looking at it, is like there's there's not

655
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 1: crap coaches left. Yeah, you know what I mean. You

656
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,719
Speaker 1: look at this, it's like you'd say, okay, well, the

657
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:01,799
Speaker 1: fan he's only done it for one years, but but

658
00:35:01,840 --> 00:35:04,279
Speaker 1: he's said he's the coach of the year maybe right,

659
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,200
Speaker 1: and he was amazing with Minnesota last year. Yeah. Yeah,

660
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:09,600
Speaker 1: But so you know, Andy Reid is probably the quote

661
00:35:09,640 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 1: unquote best coach left right. I mean, he's what you know,

662
00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: but Jim Harbaugh or John Harbaugh's done it for a

663
00:35:15,760 --> 00:35:19,759
Speaker 1: long time. Sean, No, Sean Payton might be the best

664
00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 1: we can make Sea we are. We have a lineup

665
00:35:23,000 --> 00:35:25,279
Speaker 1: of guys who are between seven ft tall and seven

666
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 1: and one who were raking by height. You know what

667
00:35:26,920 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: I mean? Right? Hey, the shortest guy here's seven ft tall.

668
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 1: I mean, these guys are uh really doing well? So

669
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 1: would you say it's Fruce Arians? So I guess when

670
00:35:38,040 --> 00:35:40,920
Speaker 1: I'm thinking too much about last week's games, but some

671
00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,440
Speaker 1: of the decisions made by Vrabel were atrocious. Mike Tomlin

672
00:35:45,600 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 1: just head scratching stuff. Um. I don't think much of Naggy,

673
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:52,320
Speaker 1: but I'm not gonna blast him. Um. I just wonder

674
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:57,040
Speaker 1: what Arians will do in a big game against an

675
00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 1: elite defense, because I mean, Mike, I looked at the

676
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 1: teams that finished better. So Tampa Bay lost to the

677
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 1: Saints in the opener, We could we pass on that whatever? Um,

678
00:36:08,120 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 1: they lost to the Saints again. They lost to the

679
00:36:11,120 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 1: Rams in a game they were beaten from beginning to end.

680
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: If you remember some I think it was Monday night

681
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:19,840
Speaker 1: football maybe Sunday night and then the Chiefs game. I

682
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,520
Speaker 1: I just I don't know if I bought by this team. Yeah,

683
00:36:22,680 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 1: So here's the here's the filter that I would look

684
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:29,280
Speaker 1: at this through. Who these coaches has shown an ability

685
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:32,800
Speaker 1: to elevate somebody to a level that they hadn't been before.

686
00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 1: So you go like, hey, mcavey, I just got the

687
00:36:34,920 --> 00:36:38,000
Speaker 1: games here. McVeigh did that with golf, right, golf did

688
00:36:38,000 --> 00:36:41,359
Speaker 1: not look good. Right, Um, even even La Fleur Right,

689
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: you can read Sando's piece and say his receivers were

690
00:36:43,840 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: the issue, but look they look better. Look at their

691
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:48,920
Speaker 1: record in two years with the floor compared to the

692
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,040
Speaker 1: last couple of McCarthy. Right, you could say that the

693
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,080
Speaker 1: Fleur Rogers is playing as good as everywhere with the floor.

694
00:36:54,120 --> 00:36:58,920
Speaker 1: That's um. You would say with Hardba he's done it.

695
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:01,880
Speaker 1: With Flacco, he's on it. With Lamar Jackson, I mean

696
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. Really. Bill Pullian said he wouldn't be a

697
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 1: quarterback because we laughed, but he said because he thought

698
00:37:08,520 --> 00:37:10,600
Speaker 1: that people would try to put him in a traditional offense,

699
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,719
Speaker 1: and if he was introduced in offense, he wouldn't look good,

700
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,799
Speaker 1: he wouldn't look as good. But what has Harbot done.

701
00:37:16,320 --> 00:37:19,520
Speaker 1: He created the perfect environment for him to be amazing.

702
00:37:19,560 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: Be an m v P. Uh. You would say with

703
00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,600
Speaker 1: the Bills, they've developed Josh Allen, they've had a plan.

704
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:27,160
Speaker 1: You would say. With the Browns, they've gotten the playoffs

705
00:37:27,200 --> 00:37:29,560
Speaker 1: for the first time, you know, and forever. You say,

706
00:37:29,560 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: with Kansas City, he look, he made Alex Smith. They

707
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,200
Speaker 1: went with Alex Smith. You know what I mean. They've

708
00:37:34,239 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 1: taken a guy who people didn't think was going to

709
00:37:36,200 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 1: go in the top who wasn't a top ten quarterback.

710
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:40,839
Speaker 1: Mahomes was not in the top ten. He was tent.

711
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,440
Speaker 1: Was he tent? He wasn't. He wasn't hired in that,

712
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:45,800
Speaker 1: and they made He's the m v P within two years.

713
00:37:46,680 --> 00:37:49,920
Speaker 1: Sean Payton, we said, he's done it with multiple guys. So, okay,

714
00:37:49,960 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 1: Bruce Arian has done it with Carson Palmer, he's done

715
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:54,920
Speaker 1: it with a little bit with Luck. He's done it

716
00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 1: with a little bit with Roethlisberger. He's done it. But

717
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 1: those were all really good guys. You know, those were

718
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:01,400
Speaker 1: all guys who are number one picks or they've been

719
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:06,600
Speaker 1: to Pro Bowls with other people. Brady was obviously good. Yeah,

720
00:38:07,239 --> 00:38:09,200
Speaker 1: you know, you know what I mean, so that may

721
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:11,360
Speaker 1: be the that's maybe the thing that I'm saying I

722
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: want to see. I don't know that this is a

723
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,000
Speaker 1: great matchup for them, but at any rate, let's wrap

724
00:38:17,080 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 1: up with the final game. Mike, Ravens and Bills. This

725
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 1: is I mean, I like this game. It was the

726
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:25,920
Speaker 1: first game I bet this week. It does feel like

727
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 1: everybody split on this. Um. You know, some people still

728
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 1: like the hot, hot Buffalo Bills, who were on fire recently. Um,

729
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:35,680
Speaker 1: although they didn't look great against the Colts. I just

730
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:39,040
Speaker 1: keep coming back to what beats the Bills or what

731
00:38:39,160 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 1: can beat the Bills is everything the Colts did. Run

732
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,320
Speaker 1: the football, tight ends in the middle of the field,

733
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: get pressure with four dropped back in the secondary, like

734
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,520
Speaker 1: Ravens have everything. It feels like they have every piece

735
00:38:49,520 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 1: to win this game. Yeah, I was. It was funny.

736
00:38:53,920 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 1: I was leading that way. I think I was listening

737
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:58,759
Speaker 1: to I think I was listening to Richard Sherman on

738
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:01,640
Speaker 1: Chris Collins Frost podast about this and he sort of

739
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:05,479
Speaker 1: convinced me that. UM and I wrote about this last week.

740
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,640
Speaker 1: So big win, Lamar Jackson wins in the playoffs. They

741
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 1: all out thirteen points. Yeah, so how they scored twenty

742
00:39:14,040 --> 00:39:16,840
Speaker 1: this amazing game by the Bills. They scored twenty points

743
00:39:17,080 --> 00:39:22,120
Speaker 1: against Tennessee, which is a bottom five defense. So that's fair. Yeah,

744
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 1: So I think when I look at Buffalo, they're one

745
00:39:26,280 --> 00:39:28,600
Speaker 1: of them. They've been one of the best teams against

746
00:39:28,680 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 1: good defenses. Okay, they have put up I've got it

747
00:39:32,920 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 1: in front of me here. I mean, there's so against

748
00:39:35,640 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 1: top ten EPA defenses, there's six and o averaging thirty

749
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:43,359
Speaker 1: five points a game. Okay, they beat Miami thirty twenty six,

750
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:49,600
Speaker 1: they beat the Rams thirty two, they beat Pittsburgh in

751
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:53,280
Speaker 1: the even a good defense. Four wasn't their best day.

752
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 1: But that's a history of never not putting up points

753
00:39:56,200 --> 00:40:00,720
Speaker 1: against good defenses. Where's the Ravens on the EPA defense list? Fourth?

754
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 1: Oh boy? So um, Now the Ravens have other ways

755
00:40:05,880 --> 00:40:07,960
Speaker 1: they can control you and beat you up. I liked

756
00:40:08,120 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 1: I like their chances. I mean, I I have the

757
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 1: case you're making is logical, like that could totally happen.

758
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:18,200
Speaker 1: But Buffalo's just scored a lot of points. Now, a

759
00:40:18,200 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: couple of teams did hold them down. I think they

760
00:40:20,120 --> 00:40:23,520
Speaker 1: got they've got they've gotten held down a couple of times. Yeah,

761
00:40:23,520 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 1: Patriots held them to twenty four. I look back also

762
00:40:26,120 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 1: at the running quarterbacks. Kyler Murray gave them fits in

763
00:40:28,960 --> 00:40:31,839
Speaker 1: the desert. I think he had sixty four yards, uh,

764
00:40:32,680 --> 00:40:36,520
Speaker 1: sixty two yards, two touchdowns yea yeah, and um Cam

765
00:40:36,520 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 1: Newton in that rain game where the Patriots really we're

766
00:40:40,160 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: driving in to score and then they fumbled inside the fifteen.

767
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 1: But Cam had something like fifty nine yards and a

768
00:40:44,400 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 1: couple of touchdowns. I think Lamar can have some success

769
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,200
Speaker 1: on the ground against his the run defense. Yeah, I

770
00:40:50,239 --> 00:40:52,680
Speaker 1: actually had that broken up too. So Cam had nine

771
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:55,120
Speaker 1: for fifty four and a touchdown in one meeting four

772
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,759
Speaker 1: four and one and another. Um. So that is I mean,

773
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: that is legitimate issue, you know, potential concern. I do

774
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:06,320
Speaker 1: think in the playoffs, um, you get team's best game plans.

775
00:41:06,400 --> 00:41:08,480
Speaker 1: You know. One of the concerns I had from Tennessee

776
00:41:08,520 --> 00:41:11,120
Speaker 1: was they didn't have Danps anymore. It was a little

777
00:41:11,120 --> 00:41:14,680
Speaker 1: bit of a concern for me. So I look at McDermott. Um,

778
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:18,640
Speaker 1: he's hired as a defensive coach. This is his this

779
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:24,760
Speaker 1: is his moment to have a plan for a great

780
00:41:25,040 --> 00:41:28,560
Speaker 1: player in Lamar Jackson. But somebody who can be solved.

781
00:41:29,040 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 1: He has a flaw, right, they have a flaw offensively

782
00:41:33,520 --> 00:41:37,320
Speaker 1: that when you you know, make them play left handed

783
00:41:37,680 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: or whatever, it's hard m for them. This is where

784
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 1: Sean McDermott has to make that be an issue. So

785
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: you look at them, what what do they have on defense?

786
00:41:49,160 --> 00:41:52,720
Speaker 1: They have two good safeties and they have a number

787
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:56,399
Speaker 1: one corner. Those are the things they have. You don't

788
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 1: have to have an amazing pass rush on the more.

789
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:01,439
Speaker 1: You have to have a plan with the rush lanes

790
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 1: and all that. It's a concern, but this is where

791
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:07,440
Speaker 1: McDermott has to earn his money. With the safety, with

792
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,160
Speaker 1: the number one corner, With enough on defense, they've been

793
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: better defensively the second half. With enough on defense to

794
00:42:14,080 --> 00:42:18,719
Speaker 1: have a plan to at least mitigate a somewhat one

795
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 1: dimensional player. By one dimensional it doesn't mean that Lamar

796
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:23,040
Speaker 1: Jackson can't throw the ball. It means that it's all

797
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 1: predicated on the run. Yeah, when were you surprised, Mike

798
00:42:27,560 --> 00:42:30,719
Speaker 1: that the Colts had eight plays of twenty and more

799
00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:33,880
Speaker 1: yards the Bills had eight plays of twenty more yards.

800
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, the Colts had eight plays of twenty more

801
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,319
Speaker 1: yards against the Bills and Uh, they rushed for like

802
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 1: a buck. Yeah, they really came out right away and

803
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:45,919
Speaker 1: just bring it down their throats. So, um, I look,

804
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:48,279
Speaker 1: I'm there's a reason I'm well, there's two reasons I'm

805
00:42:48,320 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: not betting on the money in the game. One, I

806
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 1: would probably be fired for betting on the league covering it.

807
00:42:53,880 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 1: And too, it's really hard to beat those guys. They

808
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 1: can beat the spread over time. You might do it

809
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:01,919
Speaker 1: for a year, you might do it for two years.

810
00:43:02,360 --> 00:43:04,840
Speaker 1: There's a reason people sell gambling advice instead of just

811
00:43:04,880 --> 00:43:08,160
Speaker 1: betting the betting themselves. It's because it's really hard to do.

812
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 1: And then, um, you know, um, I mean is it

813
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:14,279
Speaker 1: two and a half? It's two and a half. It

814
00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,640
Speaker 1: was three. It actually opened three and a half and

815
00:43:16,680 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 1: then came down to three and then two and it.

816
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 1: So there is some you know, considerable money coming in

817
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:27,239
Speaker 1: on the Ravens. Yeah, road game. I may just not

818
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:31,360
Speaker 1: overthink it and just lean towards Buffalo, but I'd be

819
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:33,040
Speaker 1: worried about it for the reasons you talked about it.

820
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: I do think that Baltimore is really good, and I

821
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:37,400
Speaker 1: think that they could meet him and Josh Allen scares

822
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:39,880
Speaker 1: me sometimes two as good as he is that fumble

823
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 1: late in the game. Yeah, he plays here a ball

824
00:43:42,600 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 1: still sometimes and it's wonderful when he finds the guy

825
00:43:46,960 --> 00:43:48,319
Speaker 1: at the last second in the end zone for the

826
00:43:48,320 --> 00:43:50,160
Speaker 1: flip pass and he's wide open the tight end. That

827
00:43:50,239 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 1: was amazing. But on first and ten from the plus

828
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: thirty four, up by three points with three fifty left

829
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 1: in the game, you take a seventeen yard sack and

830
00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,879
Speaker 1: fumble for six more. You do that on Baltimore, you'll

831
00:44:01,880 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 1: lose the game. Yeah, and a pick sixter. I mean,

832
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:08,280
Speaker 1: you can talk to yourself either way. Yeah, I'll bury

833
00:44:08,320 --> 00:44:10,399
Speaker 1: this at the end so the Bill's Mafia guys don't

834
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:14,760
Speaker 1: come after me. But if Josh Allen opens in Tier

835
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:19,520
Speaker 1: one next year for you and Brian Dable leaves, I

836
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:24,319
Speaker 1: wonder how much of a fall Allen will have next year.

837
00:44:24,320 --> 00:44:26,640
Speaker 1: Because we've seen Carson Wentz with Frank Reich, and I

838
00:44:26,640 --> 00:44:28,840
Speaker 1: don't know how much Frank Wike was involved in play calling.

839
00:44:28,880 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 1: There's some dispute over that we've seen Wentz not really

840
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:34,600
Speaker 1: be the same guy since that m VP year when

841
00:44:34,600 --> 00:44:37,359
Speaker 1: Reich was there, And I just wonder if day Ble

842
00:44:37,440 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 1: departs and he's expected to go um, will we see

843
00:44:41,200 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 1: Josh Allen maybe fall back a little bit. Oh, you

844
00:44:44,160 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 1: sure could. I I would imagine he'll come in the

845
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 1: second tier. I think that because because like last year,

846
00:44:50,880 --> 00:44:53,720
Speaker 1: Lamar was second tier even though he's an MVP, people

847
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,040
Speaker 1: were like, hey, I want to see him going again.

848
00:44:55,080 --> 00:44:56,640
Speaker 1: I think that. I think it was wonderful for him,

849
00:44:56,640 --> 00:44:58,520
Speaker 1: But there's a reason they didn't advance from the playoffs,

850
00:44:58,960 --> 00:45:01,040
Speaker 1: and they've got to do a better job developing their

851
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 1: pass game before I put them all the way up

852
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: in Tier one with the guys who traditionally can throw

853
00:45:05,840 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 1: you back into a game you're behind, and that's what

854
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,640
Speaker 1: we're you strip everything away. The essence of the game

855
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,239
Speaker 1: for the quarterback at the end is we have to

856
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:14,719
Speaker 1: put it on your shoulders. And there's not a play

857
00:45:14,760 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 1: action running game. There's not all that stuff because we

858
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: have to win right now. You know, when we're down

859
00:45:19,440 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 1: in the super Bowl, but to the top defense like

860
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:23,879
Speaker 1: Kansas City was, butt downs, we can win the game.

861
00:45:24,080 --> 00:45:26,399
Speaker 1: Our guy on third and fifteen might make the throw

862
00:45:26,400 --> 00:45:29,360
Speaker 1: of the year. He's gonna lead us down and to

863
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 1: do that, no, people need to see more than one

864
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 1: good year. But so I think he'll be high tier two. Um,

865
00:45:38,640 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 1: and you're right, then we'll see. Like it was with

866
00:45:41,000 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 1: Lamarin this year, the first half of the year, it

867
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:44,719
Speaker 1: was like, hey, what's going on here? Right? People get

868
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: a plan for you, that type of stuff. Yeah, So

869
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 1: he's Mike Sando the athletic. When you watch quarterbacks this weekend,

870
00:45:51,560 --> 00:45:53,879
Speaker 1: you'll think, oh, that's a Tier one, that's a Tier two.

871
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:57,200
Speaker 1: You know, Mike, Congratulations on all your success. Keep up

872
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,719
Speaker 1: the good work man, Thank you. This is a fun conversation.

873
00:46:01,680 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

874
00:46:04,520 --> 00:46:08,720
Speaker 1: the game. He's making money while you do it. Here's

875
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:14,760
Speaker 1: your best bet. Great stuff from Mike Sando, very sharp mind.

876
00:46:14,840 --> 00:46:18,600
Speaker 1: You can tell this guy is really into the numbers. Um.

877
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,200
Speaker 1: I like his stuff. I like to cut off his

878
00:46:20,280 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: jib as they say in the streets. All right, let's

879
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 1: get to the best bet here. NFL Divisional Playoffs weekend.

880
00:46:25,719 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 1: Let's update the best bet currently sitting at sixty six wins,

881
00:46:30,680 --> 00:46:34,839
Speaker 1: sixty three losses, five ties, barely over. We went through

882
00:46:34,840 --> 00:46:37,759
Speaker 1: a rupp there. Week sixteen and seventeen were not kind

883
00:46:37,800 --> 00:46:41,840
Speaker 1: to your boy. Did not go well. Um, I'll blame

884
00:46:42,200 --> 00:46:46,760
Speaker 1: New Year's in Christmas? Can I do that okay, UM

885
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:51,680
Speaker 1: three picks this weekend. The first game I bet right

886
00:46:51,680 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 1: out of gate uh. Significant play on Sunday night was

887
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:58,400
Speaker 1: Ravens plus three. I woke up Monday morning it was

888
00:46:59,000 --> 00:47:02,279
Speaker 1: Ravens plus two and a half of UM. If you

889
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: listen to the podcast daily, you know that this is

890
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 1: the way I've been headed all week I like the Ravens.

891
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:11,239
Speaker 1: Now I'm only taking three UM. I would rather take

892
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:15,280
Speaker 1: three and the juice then two and a half. UM.

893
00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: A lot of stuff line up here for the Ravens,

894
00:47:18,320 --> 00:47:20,799
Speaker 1: and we've talked about it at length. I will say

895
00:47:20,840 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: what concerns me if you listen closely to Sando that

896
00:47:23,080 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bill's offense, it's gonna be a problem for the Ravens,

897
00:47:27,320 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 1: especially if the Ravens decide, Hey, we excel at man

898
00:47:32,760 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 1: to man defense in the secondary and blitzing. We have

899
00:47:35,600 --> 00:47:38,920
Speaker 1: blitzed more than any other team in the league, and

900
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:41,360
Speaker 1: we trust our cornerbacks. Well. I hate to say, I

901
00:47:41,400 --> 00:47:43,719
Speaker 1: hate to break it to you, Wink Martin Dale, but

902
00:47:44,160 --> 00:47:48,720
Speaker 1: Josh Allen is amazing this year under pressure. You cannot

903
00:47:48,760 --> 00:47:53,040
Speaker 1: blitz him because his receivers speedy John Brown, Steph Diggs,

904
00:47:53,400 --> 00:47:57,640
Speaker 1: Cold Beasley get opened at a ridiculous rate and often

905
00:47:57,680 --> 00:48:00,160
Speaker 1: beat up on the cornerbacks. So then it becomes who

906
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:05,319
Speaker 1: do you trust Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, Jimmy Smith or

907
00:48:05,440 --> 00:48:09,279
Speaker 1: the Bills receivers and Josh Allen's accuracy. I would like

908
00:48:09,400 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 1: to see Wink Martindale, the defensive coordinator of the Ravens,

909
00:48:12,440 --> 00:48:15,080
Speaker 1: mix it up and play a little. Hey, we're just

910
00:48:15,120 --> 00:48:20,360
Speaker 1: gonna rush for play man um and and lock up everything.

911
00:48:20,400 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 1: Go ahead, run the football on us. We don't trust

912
00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:26,520
Speaker 1: Devin Singletary. Um. I do think there is some hero

913
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 1: ball that's you know, you heard Sando talk about it

914
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:34,080
Speaker 1: with Josh Allen and ultimately gimme Lamar Jackson on the road.

915
00:48:34,840 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 1: By the way, Jim Harball fund stat Jim Harball has

916
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:41,919
Speaker 1: more road playoff wins than any coach in NFL history. Um,

917
00:48:42,200 --> 00:48:44,480
Speaker 1: he's he's a good coach. I know he ran into

918
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:47,000
Speaker 1: some hard luck the last two years with Lamar. I

919
00:48:47,040 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 1: thought he had a great game plan last week. You know,

920
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:53,799
Speaker 1: Tennessee defense is pathetic and uh, you know Buffalo is

921
00:48:53,840 --> 00:48:57,160
Speaker 1: significantly better. But I took the Ravens plus three. I

922
00:48:57,239 --> 00:48:59,880
Speaker 1: get you're gonna pay juice. It's gonna be like, you know,

923
00:49:01,400 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 1: if the juices minus what it was plus three three,

924
00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:07,799
Speaker 1: it's like a thousand bucks and you win like eight

925
00:49:08,000 --> 00:49:11,319
Speaker 1: D twenty or something. So it's it's not great on

926
00:49:11,360 --> 00:49:13,360
Speaker 1: the juice. But again, three is the most key number

927
00:49:13,360 --> 00:49:17,560
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and you definitely want three instead of

928
00:49:17,560 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: two and a half. My next bet looks like it's

929
00:49:21,200 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: still is at three. Give me the New Orleans Saints.

930
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: I think the most public side come kick off Sunday

931
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:34,600
Speaker 1: evening is going to be um the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,

932
00:49:34,640 --> 00:49:37,400
Speaker 1: because who doesn't want to bet Tom Brady is an underdog?

933
00:49:37,880 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 1: How tough is it to be a team three times

934
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,080
Speaker 1: in a year, Like all these narratives are at play.

935
00:49:42,239 --> 00:49:45,360
Speaker 1: Saints did not look good last week. Um, it's just

936
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:47,520
Speaker 1: not a good matchup for the Bucks. And there was

937
00:49:47,560 --> 00:49:50,520
Speaker 1: an injury that I haven't seen many people talk about.

938
00:49:50,600 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 1: Alex Cappa um one of their interior guards. They had

939
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 1: great offensive line pay this year, a lot of continuity

940
00:49:56,320 --> 00:49:59,480
Speaker 1: in front of Brady. Alex Cappa I saw fractured ankle.

941
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:03,239
Speaker 1: He's out his replacement and they have two options. They

942
00:50:03,239 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 1: could either put a tackle a guard or the backup

943
00:50:05,400 --> 00:50:09,360
Speaker 1: guard who's played basically one game all season against that

944
00:50:09,480 --> 00:50:13,080
Speaker 1: Saints front and in the middle. Um, they're pretty good.

945
00:50:13,200 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 1: David Antia Onnya Mada, I hope I'm saying that right.

946
00:50:16,840 --> 00:50:19,480
Speaker 1: He's a beast and Rankins is very good. I think

947
00:50:19,480 --> 00:50:22,360
Speaker 1: they get pressure up the middle on Brady and we

948
00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:26,440
Speaker 1: know Lattimore versus Mike Evans big edge to Lattimore. By

949
00:50:26,440 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 1: the way, going off topic here for I don't know

950
00:50:30,560 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: what I was doing, but I went to YouTube, and

951
00:50:32,840 --> 00:50:34,279
Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I saw that there was a

952
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:38,280
Speaker 1: video Marshawn Lattimore how I spent my first million dollars

953
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 1: and I showed my kids. It's a crazy video. You

954
00:50:40,480 --> 00:50:44,240
Speaker 1: gotta look this up. I mean, he spent sixty dollars

955
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 1: on chains after he sent his rookie deal, like necklace chains.

956
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 1: Like my kids were like, what what is he doing there? For?

957
00:50:51,200 --> 00:50:54,319
Speaker 1: It's a crazy video. Anyway, Marshall Lattimore has dominated Mike

958
00:50:54,360 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 1: Evans head to head. Evans not even Um, I'm sorry,

959
00:50:59,560 --> 00:51:01,600
Speaker 1: I got I got to take the Saints favor by three. Now,

960
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:03,080
Speaker 1: I do not like it at three and a half.

961
00:51:03,120 --> 00:51:04,960
Speaker 1: I do not advocate that. I don't think we'll see

962
00:51:05,000 --> 00:51:07,360
Speaker 1: a two and a half. Um. I think the exposure

963
00:51:07,400 --> 00:51:10,000
Speaker 1: to the books will be on the Saints will be

964
00:51:10,000 --> 00:51:14,160
Speaker 1: because everybody's betting Tampa. I think, um, they'll need the Saints.

965
00:51:14,200 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna take you know, New Orleans here favored

966
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:22,320
Speaker 1: by three. And finally, um, this one is a little

967
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,359
Speaker 1: more difficult to stomach. Um, But just so I can

968
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:28,879
Speaker 1: get a little action on all the games, Um, I'm

969
00:51:28,920 --> 00:51:31,759
Speaker 1: gonna do a teaser and uh teaser hit last week

970
00:51:32,200 --> 00:51:34,960
Speaker 1: and let's go back to the well a six point teaser.

971
00:51:35,040 --> 00:51:36,960
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Packers down from six and a half

972
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:39,160
Speaker 1: to half a point, so the Packers just have to

973
00:51:39,200 --> 00:51:44,480
Speaker 1: win the football game. And I'm actually not gonna Um,

974
00:51:45,080 --> 00:51:47,840
Speaker 1: this sounds insanely stupid. I'm not going to tease the

975
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 1: side on Brown's Chiefs. I'm gonna take fifty seven and

976
00:51:51,440 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 1: take it down to fifty one. I think this is

977
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:56,960
Speaker 1: a dead nut over It's been one way money on

978
00:51:57,040 --> 00:51:58,960
Speaker 1: the over all week it's gone I think it was

979
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:02,840
Speaker 1: fifty five up the fifties seven. It's probably gonna go higher.

980
00:52:03,520 --> 00:52:07,600
Speaker 1: The Browns defense is atrocious. Ultimately, when the Chiefs wake up,

981
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 1: you know, probably in the second quarter or the second half,

982
00:52:11,280 --> 00:52:15,359
Speaker 1: they will ultimately take it to the Browns. I mean,

983
00:52:15,400 --> 00:52:17,279
Speaker 1: I have a nibble on the Browns plus ten, but

984
00:52:17,320 --> 00:52:20,120
Speaker 1: I'm not going to give that out here. UM, just

985
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,520
Speaker 1: letting you guys know I did bet that small, you know,

986
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 1: not a significant play, um, and I don't have a

987
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 1: ton of confidence in it. It's just simply betting a number.

988
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: You've give me ten points on the road against a

989
00:52:30,640 --> 00:52:33,160
Speaker 1: team that hasn't won a game by ten points in

990
00:52:33,280 --> 00:52:37,840
Speaker 1: three months, hasn't covered the spread and I think two months. Um,

991
00:52:38,120 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 1: And they rested their starters in week seventeen, and then

992
00:52:41,200 --> 00:52:43,319
Speaker 1: how to buy. They're gonna be sleepy in this one,

993
00:52:43,600 --> 00:52:46,360
Speaker 1: and the Browns will have an opportunity. Um. So the

994
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,200
Speaker 1: final bet will be a teaser Packers minus half and

995
00:52:49,560 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 1: over fifty one. So there are your three best bets

996
00:52:53,719 --> 00:52:57,160
Speaker 1: four divisional playoff weekend. Everybody, enjoy it. We're back with

997
00:52:57,239 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 1: you on Monday.