1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:15,880 Speaker 1: Well, here we go. I guess a new episode of 2 00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: the official show here on a Miami Marlins off day. 3 00:00:19,360 --> 00:00:23,080 Speaker 1: I'm Eli Susman, managing editor of Fists Stripes. As usual, 4 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: my shows are presented by Symbol the Stock Market for Sports. 5 00:00:27,840 --> 00:00:30,640 Speaker 1: Somewhat of an improvised show coming at you here. The 6 00:00:30,680 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: initial plan was to have a prospect conversation with some 7 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:37,040 Speaker 1: of our staffers here at Fist Stripes, looking forward to 8 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,640 Speaker 1: what's happening on the minor league side this year and 9 00:00:39,760 --> 00:00:43,320 Speaker 1: how the young players on the active roster are getting acclimated. 10 00:00:43,640 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 1: That conversation is still coming up early next week. Be 11 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: on the lookout for that. Should be fun. But for 12 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:51,920 Speaker 1: now I had to pump the brakes on that and 13 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:55,480 Speaker 1: just pick apart what is happening with this Marlins team 14 00:00:55,560 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: through the first seven games of the year. They've lost 15 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,680 Speaker 1: all but one of those games, including Foreigner. So if 16 00:01:00,720 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: you want more on what happened on Thursday, we got 17 00:01:03,440 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: you covered elsewhere the small pod with at word all 18 00:01:06,840 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: that went up earlier this morning. You have my written 19 00:01:09,160 --> 00:01:11,559 Speaker 1: recap on fish stripes dot com. We did a whole 20 00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: fish Stripes live stream about that about forty five minutes 21 00:01:15,640 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 1: sorting through our emotions from a very unusual ending to 22 00:01:19,760 --> 00:01:24,039 Speaker 1: a major league game, and for here and now, I 23 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:26,440 Speaker 1: just want to look at the bigger picture issues that 24 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,319 Speaker 1: are plaguing this team. Because you can nitpick that individual 25 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 1: call that umpire Ron Kolpa made. The Marlins likely lose 26 00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,280 Speaker 1: that game anyway, just based on how they actually performed 27 00:01:37,360 --> 00:01:40,360 Speaker 1: on their merits the season overall, it's been a little 28 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:42,840 Speaker 1: bit unlucky for the Marlins. If you look at the 29 00:01:43,319 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: run differential overall, they've underperformed slightly. There's just no way 30 00:01:47,760 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 1: to sugarcoat it. Though this is one of the worst 31 00:01:50,200 --> 00:01:53,640 Speaker 1: teams in baseball and pretty clearly the worst team in 32 00:01:53,680 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: the National League EESE. At the moment, it's only been 33 00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:00,000 Speaker 1: not even four percent of their season. I can't emphasize 34 00:01:59,960 --> 00:02:03,600 Speaker 1: that enough. How insignificant this sample is in the big 35 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: scheme of things that anything could happen the rest of 36 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:09,600 Speaker 1: the season. It doesn't rule it out, but there are 37 00:02:09,760 --> 00:02:12,800 Speaker 1: serious issues at the moment that are clearly holding them back. 38 00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,520 Speaker 1: And I'm going to go deep into three of them, 39 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:20,600 Speaker 1: three in particular that are raising red flags with me 40 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:24,240 Speaker 1: that are holding this team back from fulfilling its potential 41 00:02:25,639 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: and would need to change absolutely need to change if 42 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:32,440 Speaker 1: this team is going to climb up into even a 43 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: semi competitive space and salvage this season. There's plenty of time, 44 00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:39,120 Speaker 1: but there needs to be some tangible changes to what 45 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,360 Speaker 1: they're doing on both sides of the ball. So we 46 00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:47,600 Speaker 1: start offensively with the approach that these guys are taking 47 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,079 Speaker 1: at the plate. It's very frustrating to watch this offense 48 00:02:51,680 --> 00:02:55,400 Speaker 1: because honestly, there's only so many chess moves that Don 49 00:02:55,440 --> 00:02:57,800 Speaker 1: Mattingly can make. You look at the players at the 50 00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:01,360 Speaker 1: alternate training site, the fish Tank and Jupiter the fish 51 00:03:01,440 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: hikin Jacksonville, there's not an obvious candidate that is going 52 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:08,840 Speaker 1: to come in here in the near future and raise 53 00:03:08,919 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: the ceiling of this team. Like the best offensive talents, 54 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:15,639 Speaker 1: major league ready offensive talents that the organization has, they're 55 00:03:15,720 --> 00:03:17,920 Speaker 1: right here on the active roster. You need to make 56 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 1: it work with these guys. One reason why they're not 57 00:03:21,880 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: quite making it work right now has to do with 58 00:03:25,080 --> 00:03:28,200 Speaker 1: their approach to the plate and their lack of aggressiveness 59 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,440 Speaker 1: on the first pitch of a plate appearance. They're right 60 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:34,240 Speaker 1: there near the bottom of the league, bottom five in 61 00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: the rate at which they're swinging at the first pitch, 62 00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: so they're as a team that rate is under twenty 63 00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: five percent. It's a lack of conviction of going after 64 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: the first pitch. The reason why that jumps out to 65 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 1: me is when you look at how Major League Baseball 66 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: players usually perform when they put that first pitch in play. 67 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty, the league wide ops putting the first 68 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:00,960 Speaker 1: pitch in play nine to fifty one credible. The year 69 00:04:01,000 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 1: before that, though, you look at a full sample size 70 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:06,360 Speaker 1: of one hundred and sixty two game season in twenty nineteen, 71 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 1: league wide ops nine to ninety four on the first pitch. 72 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 1: Even better, everybody turns into Mike Trout essentially when they 73 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:19,039 Speaker 1: put that first pitch in play. It's easier said than done. 74 00:04:19,360 --> 00:04:22,159 Speaker 1: You know, sometimes if you swing at the first pitch, 75 00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:23,880 Speaker 1: you miss it or you foul it often, so that's 76 00:04:23,920 --> 00:04:26,679 Speaker 1: not included in the stats. That if you guess wrong 77 00:04:26,880 --> 00:04:29,840 Speaker 1: on that first pitch and not can't even put in play, 78 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: then that's taken out of the equation. Nonetheless, it's something 79 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: that the Marlins aren't doing enough of and considering their personnel, 80 00:04:39,480 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: this is why it's something that sticks out to me. 81 00:04:43,200 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: And the time of year as well. You get into 82 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 1: the middle of the year, for example, and you have 83 00:04:47,520 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 1: these starters all stretched out for potentially one hundred and ten, 84 00:04:50,560 --> 00:04:53,560 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifteen pitches. There's some added value in 85 00:04:53,640 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 1: working these deep counts, right taking extra pitches against a 86 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,600 Speaker 1: frontline starter. You want Jacob deGrom to get out of 87 00:05:00,640 --> 00:05:04,799 Speaker 1: there in six innings. I record this as their next matchup. 88 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:07,080 Speaker 1: It's going to be against de Gram and it's his 89 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:09,560 Speaker 1: second outing of the year. He's mostly stretched out, but 90 00:05:09,600 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 1: not entirely. This is the stuff that becomes more significant 91 00:05:12,800 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: later in the year when these pitchers are fully stretched 92 00:05:15,040 --> 00:05:17,800 Speaker 1: out and you want to get into that bullpen. There's 93 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,599 Speaker 1: some value in being patient at the plate working deep counts. 94 00:05:21,080 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 1: There are individual players also that do this well. Corey Dickerson. 95 00:05:25,360 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 1: He's been taking a lot of crap for his performance 96 00:05:27,640 --> 00:05:31,600 Speaker 1: overall as a Marlin in early on, in the second year, 97 00:05:31,680 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 1: in the year before that, but you have to admit 98 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:36,800 Speaker 1: that he does a very good job of wasting pitches 99 00:05:37,279 --> 00:05:40,479 Speaker 1: of even in two strike counts, he finds a way 100 00:05:40,520 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 1: to make quality contact with the way he adjusts. He's 101 00:05:44,240 --> 00:05:47,680 Speaker 1: a unique profile where you don't mind him working deep 102 00:05:47,720 --> 00:05:50,919 Speaker 1: counts because even once he gets into a two strike situation, 103 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: he can still put an effective swing on the ball. 104 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:56,799 Speaker 1: There are others that you could pick out in general, 105 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,359 Speaker 1: but for this Marlins team overall, that's not really the 106 00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,960 Speaker 1: skill set for most of these players. In particular the 107 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,920 Speaker 1: new guy Adam Duval. He's that one big change that 108 00:06:08,160 --> 00:06:10,120 Speaker 1: was not with this team at all during the twenty 109 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:14,040 Speaker 1: twenty season. He's off to a terrible start offensively tiny 110 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:18,159 Speaker 1: sample size, we know, and the inconsistency with him shouldn't 111 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 1: come as a big surprise because that's his track record. 112 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: He's put up good overall numbers for the Braves in 113 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: twenty nineteen and twenty twenty. But he's streaky. He is 114 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 1: at times he looks like one of the worst players 115 00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,359 Speaker 1: in your lineup, which is absolutely the case right now, 116 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:35,200 Speaker 1: and there are other times when he is red hot 117 00:06:35,240 --> 00:06:37,560 Speaker 1: when he hits three home runs in the game against you, 118 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:41,640 Speaker 1: as the Marlins learned first hand last year against Atlanta. 119 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: Right now, he's in a funk. And one thing that 120 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:47,559 Speaker 1: I think is contributing to why he's in a funk 121 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:53,160 Speaker 1: is that he is not his usual self in these 122 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 1: early count situations. First career, he is someone that is 123 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,160 Speaker 1: more aggressive than most on the first pitch, swinging at 124 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: about thirty three percent of the time, about one of 125 00:07:02,680 --> 00:07:08,560 Speaker 1: every three pitches, almost every single game. Usually he is 126 00:07:08,600 --> 00:07:12,000 Speaker 1: singing presumably a fastball on the first pitch and he 127 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 1: is trying to do damage against it. This year, it's 128 00:07:14,880 --> 00:07:18,200 Speaker 1: not the case. Even including yesterday. It bumped up his 129 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:21,600 Speaker 1: percentage to only eighteen percent swinging at the first pitch, 130 00:07:21,720 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: barely half of his career rate at going after those 131 00:07:25,840 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: pitches and trying to do damage. So he's getting behind accounts, 132 00:07:29,200 --> 00:07:33,360 Speaker 1: and once he's doing that, he's just yeah, he's mostly 133 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:38,560 Speaker 1: striking out or making weak contacts. Popping it up that 134 00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,320 Speaker 1: nearly all of his played appearances this year so far 135 00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: had been unproductive. He's someone that could benefit for just 136 00:07:45,480 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 1: being himself. Whatever reason could be just a small sample size, 137 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 1: but he is not himself right now, and that is 138 00:07:52,360 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 1: contributing to this. So you see this team that for 139 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:58,600 Speaker 1: right now. We're going to keep reiterating this that as 140 00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,800 Speaker 1: a team, just two homes hit so far this season, 141 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:06,360 Speaker 1: and home runs are such a big bell weather of 142 00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: whether you're winning a major League game these days, it 143 00:08:09,200 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 1: simply comes down to that, in so many cases, who 144 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: hits the ball out more often. The vast majority of 145 00:08:15,240 --> 00:08:18,840 Speaker 1: major league offense comes from home runs, whether you hit 146 00:08:18,880 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 1: them or you're on base when your teammate hits them, 147 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: and the Marlins aren't doing that. Duval is perhaps more 148 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,720 Speaker 1: so than anybody on the team some when they were 149 00:08:26,760 --> 00:08:29,960 Speaker 1: relying on in that department to do so, and it's 150 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 1: not happening right now. I singled out Duval for understandable reasons, 151 00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:36,280 Speaker 1: but like I said, this is a team wide issue. 152 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 1: As a team, less than twenty five percent swing rate 153 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:44,000 Speaker 1: on first pitch they are, that's an opportunity to ambush 154 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:46,839 Speaker 1: and it is just a little bit head scratching when 155 00:08:46,880 --> 00:08:50,920 Speaker 1: your offensive coordinators slash bench coach is James Rowson. James 156 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:53,480 Speaker 1: Rowson is someone who has been an advocate in his 157 00:08:53,559 --> 00:08:57,320 Speaker 1: previous job with the Twins, and honestly, even last year's 158 00:08:57,400 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: recently it's twenty twenty with the Marlins, you saw some 159 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:04,800 Speaker 1: guys such as Brian Anderson increasing aggressiveness. He's well of 160 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 1: the few guys so far this year that is continuing 161 00:09:07,400 --> 00:09:09,480 Speaker 1: to be aggressive in those situations, and I think that 162 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:14,160 Speaker 1: will pay dividends eventually. It's very uncharacteristic of a James 163 00:09:14,200 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 1: Rowson team. To let those pitches go by, fall behind 164 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: in account, and then settle for less than ideal contact. 165 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,079 Speaker 1: So hopefully that is something that we see trend in 166 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: a different direction as they just look for any kind 167 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: of spark that they can get. One way to do 168 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,920 Speaker 1: that is to be ready to do damage as soon 169 00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 1: as you step to the plate. Perhaps you're not interested 170 00:09:39,559 --> 00:09:43,520 Speaker 1: in buying into the slumping Marlins at this moment, that's okay, 171 00:09:43,880 --> 00:09:46,560 Speaker 1: go to Symbol. 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To 191 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:58,240 Speaker 1: help build your portfolio, invest in what you know, invest 192 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 1: in sports. So we started with the Marlins offense and 193 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:04,760 Speaker 1: we're gonna stay with that. For our second point here, 194 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:08,080 Speaker 1: that is holding back this team and allowing the losses 195 00:11:08,120 --> 00:11:12,000 Speaker 1: to pile up. They were, as just mentions, not aggressive 196 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 1: enough early in these played appearances looking to do damage. 197 00:11:14,760 --> 00:11:17,680 Speaker 1: And for my second point, even when they make contact, 198 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,199 Speaker 1: they're not sending it to the right parts of the ballpark. 199 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 1: They are not on time with these swings for the 200 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:27,240 Speaker 1: most part. As a team, a thirty percent poll rate 201 00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,120 Speaker 1: to the pull side of the field. That is the 202 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:33,960 Speaker 1: lowest in Major League Baseball by a decent margin. Only 203 00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,760 Speaker 1: the Mets and the Padres are even under thirty five percent. 204 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:41,079 Speaker 1: Nobody else really is under thirty seven percent so far 205 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: on this young season. Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald 206 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:48,200 Speaker 1: hat tipped to him a nice column about all the 207 00:11:48,280 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 1: long cly balls during that first Marlins homestands that had 208 00:11:52,080 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 1: potential but for the most part didn't do any damage 209 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: because they were hits to the wrong part of the yard, 210 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:01,400 Speaker 1: They had the wrong trajectory on them, and Lone Depot 211 00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:06,800 Speaker 1: Park formerly known as Marlins Park, is very unforgiving of that. However, 212 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: when you're this consistently low in terms of sending the 213 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:13,680 Speaker 1: ball to the poll side, where you have the most power, 214 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: this is going to be a problem no matter what 215 00:12:16,280 --> 00:12:20,160 Speaker 1: venue they play at. There is some bad luck probably 216 00:12:20,160 --> 00:12:22,640 Speaker 1: at play this early in the season. That's something that 217 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:25,400 Speaker 1: could be acknowledged. As a team they are going to 218 00:12:25,440 --> 00:12:28,360 Speaker 1: have no matter where they send the ball, that they're 219 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:30,840 Speaker 1: going to be slugging over three hundred as a team, 220 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: which is not what they're doing right now. But they're 221 00:12:33,800 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: making some of their own bad luck with the fact 222 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 1: that their timing is off. There is, according to stat Cast, 223 00:12:39,120 --> 00:12:43,319 Speaker 1: a seventy seven point gap between their actual slugging percentage 224 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,960 Speaker 1: and they're expected slugging percentage based on the quality of 225 00:12:47,000 --> 00:12:49,360 Speaker 1: the batted balls. You just look at the swings that 226 00:12:49,360 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 1: they're putting on the balls and it suggests that they 227 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: should be a lot lot more productive than they actually are. 228 00:12:56,760 --> 00:12:59,320 Speaker 1: One reason they aren't, I think the biggest reason why 229 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,480 Speaker 1: they aren't getting the most out of these swings is 230 00:13:01,520 --> 00:13:04,079 Speaker 1: because they are not pulling the ball. They're not on time, 231 00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 1: they're sending it up the middle for the most part, 232 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,120 Speaker 1: or even the other way. They're going the opposite way 233 00:13:10,160 --> 00:13:13,160 Speaker 1: almost as much as they're pulling the ball. Crazy to 234 00:13:13,320 --> 00:13:16,840 Speaker 1: think about, it's just another bad fit for this personnel 235 00:13:17,200 --> 00:13:19,640 Speaker 1: when you have someone like Adam Duvall who has incredible 236 00:13:19,720 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: raw power, or hey Al Farrow more so than anybody. 237 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:27,280 Speaker 1: I mean, Garrett Cooper is someone that finally did hit 238 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 1: a pull side home run, one of the two that 239 00:13:29,559 --> 00:13:31,760 Speaker 1: the Marlins have this year. He was able to do 240 00:13:31,800 --> 00:13:34,320 Speaker 1: that on a ball down and in and he got 241 00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:37,040 Speaker 1: with it. He waited on that breaking ball just enough 242 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: to keep it fair, but he was able to swing 243 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: early enough to pull it and get it over the 244 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:46,720 Speaker 1: wall where ordinarily other parts of the ballpark it would 245 00:13:46,800 --> 00:13:50,560 Speaker 1: not have been anywhere close to a home run. Be 246 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:54,400 Speaker 1: Like Garrett Cooper is a nice mantra to have for 247 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,840 Speaker 1: this team. That's what you should be looking to do. 248 00:13:57,080 --> 00:14:00,959 Speaker 1: The timing you should be acquiring for yourself. And until 249 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 1: this team pulls the ball more often, yeah, they're going 250 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:07,440 Speaker 1: to waste the mistake pitches that other opponents make. That's 251 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,600 Speaker 1: what they've been doing so far. So hopefully that is 252 00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:14,280 Speaker 1: something that turns around as well. We already knew this 253 00:14:14,360 --> 00:14:18,320 Speaker 1: offense this year could be a bit suspect, so don't 254 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,120 Speaker 1: put all this on their plate. A lot of this 255 00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:24,400 Speaker 1: also falls on the shoulders of the bullpen, a bullpen 256 00:14:24,480 --> 00:14:28,520 Speaker 1: that was revamped over this past offseason, moves in a 257 00:14:28,600 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: vacuum that seemed to be understandable for the most part. 258 00:14:33,160 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 1: We didn't like that they lost Brandon Kinsler and let 259 00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,280 Speaker 1: him leave via free agency and declined his club option 260 00:14:39,440 --> 00:14:43,320 Speaker 1: before that, and for the most part, all the other 261 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:47,000 Speaker 1: ones didn't seem like they would be missed. That this 262 00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:50,080 Speaker 1: team gave up some young talent to make trades for 263 00:14:50,160 --> 00:14:53,600 Speaker 1: Dylan Floro to make trades for John Curtis. Guys in 264 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:56,320 Speaker 1: a vacuum that would seem to have the skill set 265 00:14:56,360 --> 00:15:00,680 Speaker 1: to be sustainable productive relievers, and Floro is the anomaly. 266 00:15:00,800 --> 00:15:03,720 Speaker 1: He is the one guy in this entire bullpen that 267 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 1: has looked consistently good so far through this very early 268 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 1: portion of the regular season, and even Floro is lacking 269 00:15:12,840 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 1: in this one department his ground ball rate. You guys 270 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,240 Speaker 1: know listening to me that I am so high on 271 00:15:19,320 --> 00:15:22,680 Speaker 1: the defensive potential of this team, especially the infielders of 272 00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:25,120 Speaker 1: this team. It could be the greatest strength they have, 273 00:15:25,440 --> 00:15:27,400 Speaker 1: both of the major league level and the next man 274 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:30,680 Speaker 1: up that they have waiting at the alternate training site. 275 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:35,600 Speaker 1: This could be an exceptional defensive infield and behind the 276 00:15:35,640 --> 00:15:38,240 Speaker 1: instruction of Trey Hillman, they always seem to be in 277 00:15:38,280 --> 00:15:41,760 Speaker 1: the right spots. Yet the relievers on this team are 278 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:47,280 Speaker 1: totally squandering that potential. As a team, the bullpen is 279 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:51,680 Speaker 1: allowing a thirty six point one ground ball rate, that's 280 00:15:51,720 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: the percentage of balls in play they allow that are 281 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:57,480 Speaker 1: actually on the grounds. It is a bottom five rate 282 00:15:57,600 --> 00:16:00,720 Speaker 1: in Major League Baseball among the bullpens. Just to compare 283 00:16:00,760 --> 00:16:03,440 Speaker 1: it to the starters, to put it in context, the starters, 284 00:16:03,720 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 1: who we are all thrilled with at this point of 285 00:16:05,840 --> 00:16:09,840 Speaker 1: the year, allowing a forty seven point four percent ground 286 00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:14,120 Speaker 1: ball rate that is significantly above average. So eleven percent 287 00:16:14,200 --> 00:16:18,520 Speaker 1: gap between the relievers and the starters all the same team. 288 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,360 Speaker 1: I mean, Nick Knighter is a great example of someone 289 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,720 Speaker 1: who at times looked very uneasy in his first career 290 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: start on Thursday, and yet he gritted through four and 291 00:16:28,760 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: a third. We were at the moment scoreless endings before 292 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,840 Speaker 1: Ross Stattleilery came in and allowed his inherited run to score. 293 00:16:36,280 --> 00:16:40,280 Speaker 1: And Knier did not have his good commands, and he 294 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 1: was not on top of his game, and yet was 295 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,760 Speaker 1: successful because even when balls were put in play against him, 296 00:16:45,840 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: for the most part, they stayed on the grounds where 297 00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,680 Speaker 1: his fielders could do something about it, and they had 298 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:56,320 Speaker 1: his back. That is something that this team should be 299 00:16:56,880 --> 00:17:00,440 Speaker 1: really maximizing. They should be leveraging their potential to turn 300 00:17:00,520 --> 00:17:04,040 Speaker 1: double plays at all these different positions, and they're not 301 00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:07,720 Speaker 1: doing it so far. This bullpen overall a thirty six 302 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,560 Speaker 1: point one percent ground ball rate, so much lower than 303 00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 1: the starters, and lower than any Marlins bullpen has ever 304 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:17,640 Speaker 1: posted on record. Those go back to at least two 305 00:17:17,680 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 1: thousand and two, courtesy of Fangrafts. The ground ball rate 306 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:26,360 Speaker 1: from the bullpen, it's never been this low. I briefly 307 00:17:26,359 --> 00:17:30,360 Speaker 1: mentioned John Curtis, who on paper looked like a good 308 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:32,879 Speaker 1: fit for this bullpen, and he is off to a 309 00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 1: very bad start has already been bumped out of consideration 310 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:41,359 Speaker 1: for any sort of high leverage role. Richard Bleier is 311 00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:43,840 Speaker 1: one of the real head scratchers of this very small 312 00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:46,359 Speaker 1: sample size, the fact that he has already allowed a 313 00:17:46,359 --> 00:17:50,680 Speaker 1: couple home runs this season. For someone that consistently year 314 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: in year out, he has been on the very extreme 315 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 1: in terms of keeping that very low launch angle, making 316 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,879 Speaker 1: it almost impossible for opponents to lift the ball against him, 317 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:06,200 Speaker 1: apparently until now. And whether it's father time, whether it's 318 00:18:06,359 --> 00:18:09,560 Speaker 1: just a slump. The samples are so small it's hard 319 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: to assess what's wrong with each of these individual pitchers. 320 00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:15,280 Speaker 1: But you add it all together and it gives you 321 00:18:15,359 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 1: a bullpen that cannot be trusted. And this goes in 322 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:21,399 Speaker 1: tandem with the fact that the offense is not putting 323 00:18:21,440 --> 00:18:24,399 Speaker 1: up Krooking numbers. All these games have been extremely close, 324 00:18:24,480 --> 00:18:30,920 Speaker 1: with that one exception. Really, it's really it comes down 325 00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:34,080 Speaker 1: to the smallest of details, and right now, the Marlins 326 00:18:34,119 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: are not getting it done in that department. When you're 327 00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 1: not forcing ground balls and you know your opponents are 328 00:18:41,880 --> 00:18:45,480 Speaker 1: trying to do maximum damage with their swings. Then that's 329 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:49,359 Speaker 1: where you're susceptible to allowing the long ball. Like you 330 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:54,000 Speaker 1: could make jokes about the dimensions of Lone Depot Park, 331 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 1: the conditions that prevent the ball from caring, but it 332 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:59,280 Speaker 1: didn't seem to have any effect on the opponents for 333 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:02,719 Speaker 1: the Marlins, the Rays, or the Cardinals. Those teams combined 334 00:19:02,720 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: to out homer the Marlins nine to two during that 335 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 1: first homestand playing in all the same conditions, but they 336 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 1: were going against relievers that just were not keeping the 337 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 1: ball down, and not even when they were getting ahead 338 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:17,920 Speaker 1: in counts. I can't even count how many of these 339 00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:22,800 Speaker 1: home runs have been allowed in situations where the pitchers 340 00:19:22,800 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 1: didn't need to throw strikes. So the one that I said, 341 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:29,560 Speaker 1: I wasn't going to mention his name during this pod, 342 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:33,440 Speaker 1: but Anthony Bass allowing the game tying home run on Thursday, 343 00:19:33,720 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 1: Now that was in a three to one count. He 344 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:39,160 Speaker 1: did fall behind, and he just really badly missed his spot. 345 00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:41,159 Speaker 1: It was supposed to be on the outside corner. It 346 00:19:41,240 --> 00:19:45,000 Speaker 1: ended up on the inside corner, right in Jeff McNeil's wheelhouse, 347 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:50,040 Speaker 1: and McNeil made him pay. Bass more so than anybody 348 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 1: I'd say the attribute that the Marlins really liked about 349 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 1: him in free agencies that last year he had a 350 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:58,359 Speaker 1: ground ball rate over sixty percent for the Toronto Blue 351 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:02,160 Speaker 1: Jays and they saw as some similarities to Brandon Kinseler 352 00:20:02,200 --> 00:20:05,480 Speaker 1: the year before, except with potentially better stuff and even 353 00:20:05,600 --> 00:20:09,880 Speaker 1: more swing and miss potential. And that has not translated. 354 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: He was supposed to reincorporate his splitter into his pitch 355 00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,360 Speaker 1: mix this year. That's a pitch, more so than anything else, 356 00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:18,240 Speaker 1: that you love keeping down in the zone and even 357 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: below the strike zone so that hitters can't do anything 358 00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,560 Speaker 1: with it. He gave up a home run on it 359 00:20:23,640 --> 00:20:25,879 Speaker 1: during the first home stand against the Rays, and he 360 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,800 Speaker 1: totally abandoned it in his most recent outing as well, 361 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,080 Speaker 1: just going back to his two pitch mix of his 362 00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 1: fastball and his slider. So if he's not even confident 363 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:40,600 Speaker 1: enough to use his full repertoire right now, that's where 364 00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:43,680 Speaker 1: a red flag goes off in my mind. Don maddingly 365 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:45,920 Speaker 1: said they're not making a change in the closer's role 366 00:20:46,400 --> 00:20:51,480 Speaker 1: at this very moment, and I could sort of understand that, 367 00:20:51,600 --> 00:20:54,879 Speaker 1: But there's only so much longer that this can go on. 368 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 1: If he's pitching the way that he is right now, 369 00:20:58,160 --> 00:21:01,200 Speaker 1: and can't necessarily expect anything better from him if he's 370 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,639 Speaker 1: not locating his pitches and he's not really being himself. 371 00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:07,680 Speaker 1: To summarize what we've been talking about on this show, 372 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:11,080 Speaker 1: for the Marlins to get back on track to get 373 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,120 Speaker 1: the most out of their talent moving forward, they need 374 00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:17,359 Speaker 1: to be more aggressive early in these plate appearances, seeking 375 00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 1: to do damage at the plate and swinging on those 376 00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 1: first pitches. They need to when they make contact be 377 00:21:23,920 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: on time with their swings and pull the ball much 378 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:30,399 Speaker 1: more than they currently are to exploit the most vulnerable 379 00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,120 Speaker 1: parts of the ballpark and turn some of these long 380 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:37,440 Speaker 1: fly balls into extra base hits. And the relievers need 381 00:21:37,480 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: to keep the ball on the grounds and utilize what 382 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:44,840 Speaker 1: I think is potentially the biggest strength of this team. 383 00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,560 Speaker 1: Keep the ball down, Trust your fielders and they will 384 00:21:48,560 --> 00:21:52,640 Speaker 1: make plays for you. The changes that people want from 385 00:21:52,640 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 1: this team so early in the year, there's just only 386 00:21:56,640 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: so much that they should be considering at this moment 387 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:06,840 Speaker 1: such a small sample size, and this team that's currently constructed, 388 00:22:06,960 --> 00:22:09,720 Speaker 1: I mean, they have most of their impact talent already 389 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:12,840 Speaker 1: on the roster. The one change I would seriously consider 390 00:22:13,240 --> 00:22:17,560 Speaker 1: would be the spring training phenom Anthony Bender, bringing him 391 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: up at the expense of John Curtis. Curtis is someone 392 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: that I was high on entering this year, but he 393 00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,800 Speaker 1: in these appearances so far, what sticks out is his 394 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 1: ineffective slider. He's a strictly two pitch mix with his 395 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 1: fastball and a slider, and both of the home runs 396 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,199 Speaker 1: he's allowed so far been on his slider. He's not 397 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:41,760 Speaker 1: missing bats with it. It's right now he only has 398 00:22:41,800 --> 00:22:45,760 Speaker 1: one effective pitch going on, and that's potentially something that 399 00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:48,680 Speaker 1: could be resolved with some work behind the scenes at 400 00:22:48,680 --> 00:22:51,960 Speaker 1: the fish tank in Jacksonville to be more consistent with 401 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 1: that pitch and get the movement that he needs from it. 402 00:22:55,359 --> 00:22:58,480 Speaker 1: For the moment. Anthony Bender at least offers that potential 403 00:22:58,680 --> 00:23:00,840 Speaker 1: of missing a lot of bads. We saw him do 404 00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: it in spring training. There's I don't want to set 405 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 1: the expectations too high for Bender because the track record 406 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:09,800 Speaker 1: is not there. He is not pitched in the majors, 407 00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:14,560 Speaker 1: not even above triple A, not even particularly effective during 408 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:17,400 Speaker 1: the twenty twenty season when he pitched in an independent league, 409 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,720 Speaker 1: so the expectations can't be that much higher. But it 410 00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:24,679 Speaker 1: is a tweak that they should seriously consider because right 411 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:28,080 Speaker 1: now that bullpen is not getting the job done. Curtis 412 00:23:28,119 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 1: has minor league obtions remaining, and most of these pitchers do, 413 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,320 Speaker 1: so there are a variety of moves to consider with 414 00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:36,959 Speaker 1: that bullpen, only so much of a difference that one 415 00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 1: reliever is going to make. Though you're not pitching in 416 00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,640 Speaker 1: every single game, you're usually not pitching more than one 417 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:45,959 Speaker 1: ending at a time. Offensively, I mean, that's where most 418 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:50,359 Speaker 1: of this responsibility lays on, and even there it's more 419 00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:53,320 Speaker 1: difficult to see a single move that makes sense at 420 00:23:53,320 --> 00:23:58,280 Speaker 1: this very moment. Someone who's been underutilized so far is 421 00:23:58,359 --> 00:24:01,720 Speaker 1: Lewis Brinson, and Brinson has minor league options as well. 422 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:04,159 Speaker 1: I just don't know who you're bringing up that you're 423 00:24:04,200 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 1: expecting anything much different for at that position. The Marlins 424 00:24:08,880 --> 00:24:12,440 Speaker 1: have already enough bats on this roster on paper, guys 425 00:24:12,480 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 1: that have track records. They every single day there's one 426 00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: accomplished big swinger that is out of the lineup at 427 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,320 Speaker 1: the corner outfielder at the first base positions. They have 428 00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:25,240 Speaker 1: that extra guy. And if their starting pitchers are working 429 00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,800 Speaker 1: deep into games as least Sandy and Pablo have been 430 00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,600 Speaker 1: so far. I mean, stay tuned to see whether the 431 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,440 Speaker 1: rest of the rotation is able to follow in their footsteps. 432 00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,360 Speaker 1: But that limits the number of pinch hitting appearances you're 433 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 1: going to get. So whoever you call up to fill 434 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 1: that last spot on the bench is not going to 435 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,920 Speaker 1: be on the field that often anyway, health permitting. So yeah, 436 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,120 Speaker 1: at this very moment, it's for the most part, they 437 00:24:50,160 --> 00:24:52,560 Speaker 1: need to be writing with who they currently have and 438 00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:56,520 Speaker 1: expecting something more, looking into these adjustments that they could make, 439 00:24:57,280 --> 00:24:59,720 Speaker 1: hoping some of the bad luck evens out as we 440 00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:04,920 Speaker 1: move poward. Before really pushing the panic button on this team, 441 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:09,440 Speaker 1: I can say unequivocally that this Marlins team is the 442 00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,480 Speaker 1: best one in six team in the Majors right now, 443 00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:16,280 Speaker 1: even better than the Pittsburgh Pirates. In all seriousness. The 444 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:19,760 Speaker 1: talent is much better than the results have been so far. 445 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:23,840 Speaker 1: It will even out a little bit moving forward. Again, 446 00:25:23,880 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: they just need a hold tight during the rest of 447 00:25:25,760 --> 00:25:29,480 Speaker 1: this first road trip before it gets really ugly, because 448 00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,440 Speaker 1: there comes a point when a certain number of losses 449 00:25:33,920 --> 00:25:36,480 Speaker 1: essentially forces you to make changes you don't want to 450 00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,960 Speaker 1: the roster and brings a lot of criticism to the decision. 451 00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:43,240 Speaker 1: Makers as well, who seem to be on the same 452 00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 1: page with each other entering the year. It's crazy how 453 00:25:46,359 --> 00:25:51,399 Speaker 1: quickly the vibe around a team can change when the 454 00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,240 Speaker 1: losses pile up, so they need to find a way 455 00:25:54,240 --> 00:25:57,160 Speaker 1: to scratch out one of these games over the weekends. 456 00:25:57,560 --> 00:26:00,080 Speaker 1: Will of course be back with a podcast on Monday, 457 00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:02,920 Speaker 1: and throughout the weekend we'll have game coverage on fish 458 00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:05,720 Speaker 1: Stripes dot com and on our Twitter account as well. 459 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,680 Speaker 1: We thank everybody who's been participating in our fish Picks 460 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 1: props bets. We do them every single game and so 461 00:26:12,040 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 1: far more than one hundred and fifty unique users just 462 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,000 Speaker 1: through the first seven games of the regular season. Keep 463 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,600 Speaker 1: it growing, try to pick that perfect game. We've seen 464 00:26:21,840 --> 00:26:25,240 Speaker 1: a growing trend during this losing streak of people trying 465 00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,600 Speaker 1: to reverse jinks their way into a Marlins win by 466 00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: picking against the team, and unfortunately those picks ending up 467 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:34,840 Speaker 1: being correct not working yet, but keep it going, guys, 468 00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 1: as that's something that will make this season hopefully more tolerable, 469 00:26:40,520 --> 00:26:44,959 Speaker 1: regardless of the results from the team itself. Thank you 470 00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:48,760 Speaker 1: for all this apoard, have a great weekends. Go Fish