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Speaker 1: Welcome to On the Job. As you might be noticing

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Speaker 1: if you're a longtime listener, I am not Otis Gray.

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Speaker 1: I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back

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Speaker 1: in season three when I told my story A Brush

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Speaker 1: with Fame. Well, I'm back again and I'm excited to

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Speaker 1: take the wheel for our whole new season of On

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Speaker 1: the Job, our seventh in fact, So over the next

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Speaker 1: eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally

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Speaker 1: folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there

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Speaker 1: doing what they love and keeping America moving forward. This season,

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Speaker 1: On the Job is on the move, so come along

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Speaker 1: for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition

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Speaker 1: here at On the Job to start the season by

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Speaker 1: speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand

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Speaker 1: the current state of our labor market. So to kick

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Speaker 1: things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina

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Speaker 1: to speak with doctor Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of

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Speaker 1: North Carolina State University and veteran economist with over forty

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Speaker 1: years of expertise. But before you go thinking oh no,

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Speaker 1: an economist, hit the fast forward button. You'll be relieved

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Speaker 1: to know that I chose a person that understands your

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Speaker 1: apprehension and has made it his life's work to help

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Speaker 1: people get over that econ phobia.

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Speaker 2: Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my

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Speaker 2: life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand.

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Speaker 2: And my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire at

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Speaker 2: some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip off

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Speaker 2: the podium and go on go to the next level,

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Speaker 2: because I do love talking about and explain the economics

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Speaker 2: to people.

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Speaker 1: You'll move onto that big economic forum in the sky.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 1: That's right, And more than just being helpful, Doctor Walden

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Speaker 1: actually thinks economics can be thrilling.

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Speaker 2: Literally, I've written with my wife what we call three

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Speaker 2: economic thrillers. Now, don't laugh, because that's usually reaction I

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Speaker 2: get because people think thrilling economy that they shouldn't go together.

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Speaker 2: But I was motivated to that by, quite frankly, the

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Speaker 2: economists use a lot of really boring textbooks, and I

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Speaker 2: felt sorry for my students, and I thought if I

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Speaker 2: could write something that would teach them economics but would

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Speaker 2: be exciting to read. So over the course of several years,

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Speaker 2: my wife and I actually wrote three, one on macroeconomics,

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Speaker 2: one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system, and

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Speaker 2: students love them.

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Speaker 1: So if you're looking for an exciting summer read, we'll

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Speaker 1: have links to doctor Walden's books in the show notes.

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Speaker 1: In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current

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Speaker 1: state of our nation's economic affairs, doctor Walden as the

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Speaker 1: hard hitting journalist that I am. I just did a

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Speaker 1: quick Google search and I see that the unemployment rate

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Speaker 1: is three point four percent. That's pretty darn low, isn't it.

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Speaker 2: It's I think, actually a forty or fifty year low.

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Speaker 2: It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip

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Speaker 2: roaring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the

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Speaker 2: pandemic hit and we economists knew that that was going

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Speaker 2: to cause a recession, and it did. We had an

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Speaker 2: unemployment rate in March I believe March or April of

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Speaker 2: twenty twenty and fourteen percent, highest since the so called

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Speaker 2: Great Depression of the nineteen thirties. But once we began

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Speaker 2: to open up, which happened at the end of May,

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Speaker 2: and once we the federal government started pushing stimulus money

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Speaker 2: in the economy began to quickly recover, and actually we

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Speaker 2: got back to pre levels of at least production within

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Speaker 2: another quarter, and we've been growing since, and we're actually

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Speaker 2: now in an economy that's beyond where it was pre

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Speaker 2: pandemic in terms of production, also in terms of employment.

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Speaker 1: I think we can all agree that a low unemployment

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Speaker 1: rate is a good thing, but I have to admit

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Speaker 1: that I didn't entirely understand what that looked like out

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Speaker 1: in our job market. With the unemployment rate being three

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Speaker 1: point four percent, does that mean that there are no

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Speaker 1: jobs availed for someone looking or are there lots of

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Speaker 1: jobs that we just can't keep filled? Oh?

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Speaker 2: No, there right now. A lot of people heard this

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Speaker 2: and recently that there were two jobs available for every

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Speaker 2: person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better as about

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Speaker 2: one point seven jobs available for every person unemployed now.

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Speaker 2: Pre pandemic, which was more normal, it was only one

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Speaker 2: point two jobs available for every person employed. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: there are still signs out there and businesses saying please apply.

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Speaker 1: But doctor Wolden explained the types of jobs that are

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Speaker 1: widely available are different from those that we might have

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Speaker 1: seen one or two years ago, because as the world

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Speaker 1: returns to some sort of post pandemic, normal Americans are

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Speaker 1: once again craving community. We want to hang out at

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Speaker 1: bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue vacation.

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Speaker 1: And therefore the jobs market, those now hiring signs we're

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Speaker 1: seeing all over town reflect the shift in consumer behavior.

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Speaker 2: If you look at the latest job of report we

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Speaker 2: had for the nation, which came out well January, it

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Speaker 2: was a very robust report. What we saw is a

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Speaker 2: lot of people taking restaurant jobs and personal service jobs,

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Speaker 2: exactly the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And

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Speaker 2: I think what's happened here is the tech sector is

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Speaker 2: slowing down. So I think that this makes sense to

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Speaker 2: me that as a tech sector shed some people, those people,

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Speaker 2: maybe some of them are saying, well, I've got to

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Speaker 2: go back at least for a while, and maybe those

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Speaker 2: jobs that I left.

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Speaker 1: Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs

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Speaker 1: available for every job seeker, doctor Waldon suggests that we

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Speaker 1: shouldn't get too comfortable. Employers have a special trick up

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Speaker 1: their sleeve to combat this labor shortage, that we should

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Speaker 1: all be careful about.

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Speaker 2: One thing we're going to see more of to deal

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Speaker 2: broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually

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Speaker 2: feared a decade ago, and that is technology.

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Speaker 1: In other words robots, well, also automation and AI, but yes,

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Speaker 1: also robots.

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Speaker 2: But I think some of those technologies have been developed,

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Speaker 2: they may hit at just the right time.

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Speaker 1: And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive

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Speaker 1: tasks that are at risk of being replaced.

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Speaker 2: Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being

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Speaker 2: developed and then there's some scary things about that, but

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Speaker 2: that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So

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Speaker 2: I don't think we should get too set in thinking

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Speaker 2: that all this labor shortage is going to go on.

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Speaker 2: I do think eventually we're going to see a lot

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Speaker 2: of this technology come in and be used by businesses.

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Speaker 2: So I still think people need to worry about getting

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Speaker 2: the skills that they need to get in order to

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Speaker 2: get the job they want, and just don't be setting

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Speaker 2: back and saying, oh, I can get a job anytime

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Speaker 2: I want, because there's so many jobs deal I think

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Speaker 2: eventually it'll change.

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Speaker 1: So doctor Walden's advice, get that job now, folks, strike

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Speaker 1: while the iron's hot. We'll be right back.

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Speaker 3: A strong work ethic takes pride in a job well done.

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Speaker 3: This is the kind of person you need. Express Employment

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Speaker 3: professionals can help because in good times or bad, we

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Speaker 3: understand how critical it is to manage your business for

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Speaker 3: today with the right workforce. We offer hiring solutions to

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Speaker 3: fit changing demands. Express knows Jobs. Get to know Express.

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Speaker 3: Go to expresspros dot com to find a location near you.

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Speaker 1: We're back speaking with economist doctor Michael L. Walden, who

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Speaker 1: is just reflecting on a very strong post pandemic labor

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Speaker 1: market we're enjoying. But doctor Walden also acknowledges that even

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Speaker 1: in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker,

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Speaker 1: sometimes landing that job is easier said than done.

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Speaker 2: We are probably in an era where what business is

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Speaker 2: want and the skills that are needed are changing more

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Speaker 2: rapidly than any time before. And I think, what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen? This is not me saying this. The kind

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Speaker 2: of jobs that are going to be applied for people

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Speaker 2: and the skills that are needed are going to change.

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Speaker 1: What doctor Walden is talking about has already been playing

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Speaker 1: out far and wide. In just three decades, we've gone

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Speaker 1: from dial up modems to nearly every single job in

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Speaker 1: America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not

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Speaker 1: just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders

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Speaker 1: on iPads. Mechanics are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems,

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Speaker 1: metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters. Even

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Speaker 1: our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out

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Speaker 1: our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And

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Speaker 1: while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some

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Speaker 1: phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workflow.

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Speaker 2: And what I worry about is that we may very

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Speaker 2: well be looking down the road of the situation where

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Speaker 2: we have a large percentage of people who are say,

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Speaker 2: middle aged, they've been working at their job for a

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Speaker 2: decade or two, they've got family to raise, et cetera,

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Speaker 2: who one day wake up and find their job's gone.

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Speaker 2: They may be taken over by technology, it may have

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Speaker 2: been changed in some way, and they need to get retrained,

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Speaker 2: and they don't have time to go to a four

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Speaker 2: year college spend four years retraining. So I think we

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Speaker 2: need to start looking at programs that get people retrained

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Speaker 2: in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need

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Speaker 2: to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs

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Speaker 2: for people. So I think I think the rapidity and

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Speaker 2: what skills are going to are going to change will

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Speaker 2: require a much more rapid and efficient educational system.

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Speaker 1: So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to

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Speaker 1: have to get clever about education and retraining. From the

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Speaker 1: returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans

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Speaker 1: are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in

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Speaker 1: their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be

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Speaker 1: fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an

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Speaker 1: economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.

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Speaker 1: So I had doctor Walden with a question that seems

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Speaker 1: to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have

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Speaker 1: a recession? And his response was.

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Speaker 2: I'm in the camp that I think we will toward

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Speaker 2: the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: But before you get too concerned, he added some very

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Speaker 1: interesting caveats.

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Speaker 2: So there's one idea that economists that have been batting

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Speaker 2: around sort of in the background here is that if

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Speaker 2: we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not

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Speaker 2: layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minyl

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Speaker 2: because they can cut their labor CAUs by simply cutting

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Speaker 2: the number of unfilled positions. So the forecast that I've seen,

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Speaker 2: even in the worst case scenario is maybe the unemployment

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Speaker 2: rate would go up to five percent and five percent

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Speaker 2: of employment. Now, no, I don't want anyone listening to

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Speaker 2: think that I don't care about unemployed people. I do.

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Speaker 2: My father working in construction, he was unemployed a couple

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Speaker 2: of times, always every year, and I remember living through that.

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Speaker 2: But if five percent of unemployment when I was engraved

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Speaker 2: with school fifty years ago, that was considered full employment.

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Speaker 2: And so if we get to five percent employment and

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Speaker 2: that's the worst during what I think will be an

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Speaker 2: upcoming recession, that would be great. So fingers crossed. If

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Speaker 2: we do have a recession, I think there'll be best

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Speaker 2: case scenario, there'll be no negative impact on the job market.

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Speaker 2: But if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on

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Speaker 2: the job market, and then we'll get back. And then

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Speaker 2: the other thing. The other thing the companies are remembering

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Speaker 2: is they had to work hard to get the people

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Speaker 2: they have because it's so competitive, and so a lot

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Speaker 2: of companies are reluctant to let people go because they're

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Speaker 2: worried they can't get him back when times get back

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Speaker 2: to normal and the economy blooms again.

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Speaker 1: Only time will tell how things play out, but I

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Speaker 1: hope for everyone's sake that doctor Walden is right and

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Speaker 1: things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday

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Speaker 1: pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue

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Speaker 1: to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up

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Speaker 1: our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his

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Speaker 1: office a long row of baseball caps, all of them

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Speaker 1: bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you

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Speaker 1: know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you

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Speaker 1: have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.

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Speaker 2: My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think

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Speaker 2: they lost one hundred and two games, But I'm always

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Speaker 2: optimistic about a lot of young players, so I'm looking

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Speaker 2: for good things from the Reds. Maybe not World Series,

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Speaker 2: but at least being competitive.

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Speaker 1: So maybe we should take doctor Waldon's positive economic outlook

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Speaker 1: with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right

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Speaker 1: and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on

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Speaker 1: the job, I'm Avery Thompson, I'll see you down the road.