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Speaker 1: Cable news is ripping us apart, dividing the nation, making

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Speaker 1: it impossible to function as a society and to know

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Speaker 1: what is true and what is false. The good news

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Speaker 1: is that they're failing and they know it. That is

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Speaker 1: why we're building something new. Be part of creating a new, better, healthier,

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Speaker 1: and more trustworthy mainstream by becoming a Breaking Points Premium

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Speaker 1: member today at breakingpoints dot com. Your hard earned money

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Speaker 1: is going to help us build for the midterms and

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Speaker 1: the upcoming presidential election so we can provide unparalleled coverage

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Speaker 1: of what is sure to be one of the most

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Speaker 1: pivotal moments in American history. So what are you waiting for?

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Speaker 1: Go to Breakingpoints dot com to help us out. Good morning, everybody,

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Speaker 1: Happy Tuesday. We have an amazing show for everybody today.

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Speaker 1: What do we have, Crystal, Indeed we do. We are

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Speaker 1: going to start this morning and character stick Lee. Lately

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Speaker 1: we've been leading with Ukraine, but we're going to do

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Speaker 1: a deep dive into the midterms. Fetterman Oz big debate,

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Speaker 1: much anticipated is tonight. We got some new polling out

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Speaker 1: of that race and some other ones as well, and

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Speaker 1: I guess their polls are kind of all over the map.

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Speaker 1: I think people will see in them what they want

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Speaker 1: to see in them, but we'll give you our analysis. Also,

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Speaker 1: I'm going to have to rage in our Ukraine block

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Speaker 1: because progressives, a few of them got together wrote a

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Speaker 1: letter that was actually fairly decent. I was like, oh, okay,

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Speaker 1: this is encouraging, like, you know, taking a bold stand

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Speaker 1: in favor of not having nuclear war. And then immediately

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Speaker 1: they had a little pushback and they were like, no, no no,

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Speaker 1: we didn't mean it. We didn't mean it. Just total, complete,

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Speaker 1: immediate capitulation. At the same time that we continue to

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Speaker 1: have all kinds of saber rattling from the Russians, and

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Speaker 1: you know, I'm still talking about the Ukraine is going

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Speaker 1: to use a dirty bomb and all this nonsense. So

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Speaker 1: we'll break all of that down for you. We also

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Speaker 1: had a big announcement from the DOJ about Chinese spies

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Speaker 1: that they are indicting. We also got some really dire

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Speaker 1: and very depressing numbers out of how students across the

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Speaker 1: country faired during the pandemic. A lot to deal to

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Speaker 1: dig into their in particular. You know, it's not an

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Speaker 1: easy narrative because even some of the states that didn't

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Speaker 1: really close schools much had huge test score losses during

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, so we'll tell you about that. And also

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Speaker 1: a focus group led by an MSNBC host on January sixth.

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Speaker 1: That was interesting. Two bubbles colliding, I guess is what

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Speaker 1: you would say. We also are excited to have ronif

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Speaker 1: Ruhar on. She has a new book about the end

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Speaker 1: of globalism. So that is the plans for the day.

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Speaker 1: We are going to start with the midterms. Let's go

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Speaker 1: ahead and jump into CNN has a bunch of new

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Speaker 1: polling here. Let's put this up on the screen. Now.

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Speaker 1: This is CNN's battleground polling, and their numbers look a

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Speaker 1: bit better for Democrats than in general Democratic numbers have

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Speaker 1: been looking lately. So let me go through this. They

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Speaker 1: pulled in Wisconsin and they have the Democrat Mandela Barnes

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Speaker 1: basically even with the incumbent Republican Ron Johnson fifty for Johnson,

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Speaker 1: forty nine for Barnes, within the margin of error in

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Speaker 1: terms of Pennsylvania Senate. And we're going to dig into

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Speaker 1: that one a little bit more in a moment. We've

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Speaker 1: got Fetterman with a six point lead over Oz fifty

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Speaker 1: one forty five Wisconsin governor. You've got Evers, the Democrat,

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Speaker 1: up narrowly fifty forty eight. Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro with a

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Speaker 1: commanding lead there fifteen percentage points. Don't quite buy that one.

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Speaker 1: Michigan governor. You also have Whitmer with a fairly decent

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Speaker 1: lead there of six points. So that's the CNN polling,

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Speaker 1: you know, Sager, I'm pretty skeptical of these numbers at

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Speaker 1: this point, and I do think I was trying to

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Speaker 1: remember back to twenty twenty. It was some of the

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Speaker 1: CNN polls in the Midwest that were like totally wrong,

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Speaker 1: wildly off. I remember, you know, they were one of

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Speaker 1: the ones that was pulling like double digits in Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: or something like that. So I think it's worth being

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Speaker 1: skeptical here. Now, if you dig into the numbers, a

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Speaker 1: couple of things that they point to here. They say,

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Speaker 1: in both Wisconsin and in Pennsylvania, the economy is a

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Speaker 1: central focus. Forty seven percent in Wisconsin, forty four percent

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania say the economy and inflation are their most

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Speaker 1: important issues. Surprise, surprise, this should be no shock to anyone.

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Speaker 1: That's more than double the nineteen percent in each state

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Speaker 1: who named abortion, which does rank second in both states

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Speaker 1: as their top issue. And as we see, this has

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Speaker 1: been a pattern that's playing on all of these states.

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Speaker 1: The voters who say economy, inflation, jobs, those sorts of

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Speaker 1: things are my top issue, they're going for the Republicans.

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Speaker 1: The voters who are saying abortion is their top issue,

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Speaker 1: they're going overwhelmingly for Democrats. The question is if there

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Speaker 1: are enough of those voters, and it's increasingly looking like

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Speaker 1: the answer is no. Yeah, and you know, I actually

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Speaker 1: pulled up the average polling miss for twenty twenty, and yeah,

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Speaker 1: look it is shocking because consider this, Wisconsin was actually

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Speaker 1: polling at Biden plus ten. He won it by less

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Speaker 1: than one point in twenty twenty. So if there's a

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Speaker 1: ten point error just two years ago, you should factor

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Speaker 1: that in whenever they say that it's a tie. In Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: they had Biden up, of course, he barely won it

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Speaker 1: by a single point. In Arizona, they had Biden up

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Speaker 1: by three. Of course he won it by tenths of

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Speaker 1: a percentage point. So and when I look at this poll,

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Speaker 1: it actually just confirms really to me, the possible like

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Speaker 1: Republican victories except for Pennsylvania, given that it is six points,

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Speaker 1: that one seems like a genuine toss up, but it

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Speaker 1: isn't fully captured right in a fifty one forty six.

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Speaker 1: So anyway, I think that the people who are on

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Speaker 1: the ground are much more clear eyed. I've seen Mark

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Speaker 1: Kelly been like, listen, we do not believe these polls.

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Speaker 1: We believe this is a genuine toss up. We still

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Speaker 1: need to have money. Fetterman campaign saying the same thing.

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Speaker 1: Mandela Barnes as well Shapiro in Pennsylvania the gubernatorial race.

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Speaker 1: All of them are not taking any of these for granted.

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Speaker 1: It really is only Biden and a few others in

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Speaker 1: the media who are like, no, no no, no, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be fine. Biden did an event yesterday he said the

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Speaker 1: Dems will come home at the end of the day.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, well, maybe, And even if they do, as

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Speaker 1: we found out, if people are even more energized on

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Speaker 1: the other side, they can come home all they want.

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Speaker 1: If people are even more enthusiastic against you, it doesn't

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Speaker 1: entirely matter. Whenever it comes to the polling time, when

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Speaker 1: you're trying to factor in potential polling bias. Two, it's

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Speaker 1: important to remember that not all states are created equals,

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Speaker 1: So in particular, I think you should be most skeptical

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Speaker 1: of polls coming out of the industrial Midwest and any

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Speaker 1: state that has a large white working class population. Those

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Speaker 1: are the places where the polls have for the past

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Speaker 1: couple of election cycles had the biggest misses. So when

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Speaker 1: you're talking about a Wisconsin, when you're talking about a Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: those are the types of states that would fall into

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Speaker 1: that category, as would the next state. Let's go ahead

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Speaker 1: and put Ohio up on the screen. Now, this has

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Speaker 1: been very interesting. We have a new poll here. This

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Speaker 1: is from Spectrum News and Siena College, that has Tim

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Speaker 1: Ryan the Democrat, and jd Vance tied at forty six percent.

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Speaker 1: There is a hefty margin of error on this thing,

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Speaker 1: five point one percent. But you know, the thing that

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Speaker 1: is really strange is, you know, my assumption here is

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Speaker 1: that these numbers are not really correct. Ohio is one

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Speaker 1: of the states that's had the biggest polling misses. Again,

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Speaker 1: it's one of the states with a very large white

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Speaker 1: working class population, and that seems to be where the

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Speaker 1: biggest misses occur. The one thing that is strange is

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Speaker 1: that the governor's race between Dwine and Whaley. The Republican

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Speaker 1: shows up in the polls as having a massive lead,

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Speaker 1: which is what you would expect, and then on the

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Speaker 1: Senate race they sort of consistently show a very tight race. Now,

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Speaker 1: I went and looked at the most recent polls from

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Speaker 1: Real clare Politics, which just lists all of the polls

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Speaker 1: that are happening in a particular state, and most of

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Speaker 1: them give Vance a little bit of an edge. So

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Speaker 1: there was one from I don't know what this group

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Speaker 1: is signal. I think it's a Republican aligned polster. They

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Speaker 1: have Vance up four, you have Marist a tie. This

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Speaker 1: one I just referenced a tie USA today, Vance plus two,

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Speaker 1: Trafalgor Vance plus three. So even Valger, which you know

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Speaker 1: tends to have more of Republican lean, was probably more

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Speaker 1: accurate in these states than other places. Even they have

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Speaker 1: this race close. So I do think it's probably closer

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Speaker 1: than it should be. But at the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: do I think that Tim Ryan is going to be

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Speaker 1: able to pull off the upset in a state that

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Speaker 1: has really trended pretty hard to the right, actually has

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Speaker 1: trended more hard to the right than almost any other

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Speaker 1: state in the country. I can't see that really happening.

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Speaker 1: In our friend of the show, Kyle Condick, who is

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Speaker 1: by the way, an Ohio native and works at the

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Speaker 1: University of Virginia, analyzed politics. We have him on the

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Speaker 1: show whenever we can get him. He says, I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people, myself included, have thought that Tim

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Speaker 1: Ryan has run a really credible race, but that ultimately

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Speaker 1: you'd rather be vanced down the stretch here. I still

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Speaker 1: feel that way, and I guess that basically sums up

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Speaker 1: my views on this. I completely agree. And look at

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Speaker 1: Jade Vance. If they say it's tied. Trump was effectively

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Speaker 1: tied with Joe Biden on the eve of the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty election. He won the state by eight points, and

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Speaker 1: he actually increased his vote margin in some of the

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Speaker 1: fight working class. Well, and here's another thing to point

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Speaker 1: out here as well, which is that in the same

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Speaker 1: poll last month, Tim Ryan actually had a bit of

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Speaker 1: a leak, had a three point lead. So this is

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Speaker 1: actually represents an erosion in Ryan's standing. You know the

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Speaker 1: analysis here from a University of Akron political scientists. She says,

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Speaker 1: closing the numbers a little bit might be Republicans coming

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Speaker 1: home and even if Vance is not their favorite, he's

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Speaker 1: still a Republican, and that might be it. I think

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Speaker 1: we're seeing that dynamic play out in this race. I

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Speaker 1: think we're seeing it play out in Pennsylvania, see it

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Speaker 1: playing out in Georgia, where you know, it continues to

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Speaker 1: be the case that Fetterman has much better approval rating

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Speaker 1: than doctor Oz, who was mostly not particularly well liked.

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Speaker 1: There were a lot of Republicans who really didn't want

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Speaker 1: doctor Oz to be the nominee, and it's taken a

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Speaker 1: while for them to sort of swallow their distaste and

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Speaker 1: actually admit that they're going to vote for this guy.

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Speaker 1: But in the at the end of the day, they

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Speaker 1: are Republicans, and they care a lot more about who

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Speaker 1: has control over the Senate than whatever issues they have

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Speaker 1: with Oz, whatever issues they have Hersha Walker, whatever issues

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Speaker 1: they have which eighty Vance. And I think that's what

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Speaker 1: we're seeing in there. We're refracting a little bit this too.

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Speaker 1: In the gubernatorial pole in Michigan. Put this up there

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Speaker 1: on the screen. It actually shows you this is from Trafalgar,

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Speaker 1: but shows a very tight race between Gresh and Whitmer

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Speaker 1: and Tutor Dixon, with Greshen, Whitmer at forty eight points

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Speaker 1: percent and Tutor Dixon at forty seven point nine. Michigan

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Speaker 1: also was one of the places with a tremendous polling

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Speaker 1: miss in twenty twenty plus eight for Biden, and Biden

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Speaker 1: ended up winning it by a round three points. So

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Speaker 1: if you factor in that level of a miss, I

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Speaker 1: would much rather be Tutor Dixon in a poll like this.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know. This was Tfalger though, and so

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Speaker 1: that's when it has the most accurate right when I

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Speaker 1: see Trafalgar even has Whitmer off because they did miss

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Speaker 1: a little bit in the other direction of underestimating democratic performance,

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Speaker 1: they were sort of, you know, unique in doing that.

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Speaker 1: So when I see like, oh, even Trafalger has Whitmer up,

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Speaker 1: in my view the race is closer than what a

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Speaker 1: lot of the mainstream poles are showing. But she probably

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Speaker 1: does have a bit of an edge. That's the way

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Speaker 1: that I interpret that might be. I genuinely don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's only leading by half a percentage point in this poll,

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Speaker 1: which I mean that's effectively a toss up, right, and

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Speaker 1: toss up in an unfavorable environment, with the fundamentals where

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Speaker 1: they are, I think i'd probably be the Republican candidate.

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Speaker 1: Tutor Dixon has not done herself any favors with the

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Speaker 1: abortion messaging, you know, allying with Mike Pence, but Whitmer

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Speaker 1: is going all in on abortion in a state obviously

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Speaker 1: where the economics matter and which Trump won in twenty sixteen.

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Speaker 1: So if you just focus on economy and inflation, I

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Speaker 1: believe gas there was actually quite expensive for a while too.

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Speaker 1: Combined with you know, long standing issues de industrialization, I

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Speaker 1: think she probably has the wins that are back. But

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Speaker 1: again I don't know, you know, we're what two weeks

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Speaker 1: or so till election day, so really is now I

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Speaker 1: think people should know. Not everybody's like us, which is

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Speaker 1: that most people A lot of political science data shows

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Speaker 1: us that even in a presidential race, people don't really

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Speaker 1: care about it at all until three weeks before. That's

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Speaker 1: when they're like, okay, let me tune in. If they're

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Speaker 1: genuinely undecided, of which there are a lot less people

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Speaker 1: in the midterms, it's more like two weeks, maybe even

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Speaker 1: one and a half. So it's really only now that

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Speaker 1: people care a lot about who they might vote for. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I generally think, you know, Republicans are surging Democrats,

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Speaker 1: you know, peak too early. This is slipping out of

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Speaker 1: their hands. I think that they have been foolish to

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Speaker 1: completely see the economic argument to the Republicans. I think

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Speaker 1: it's like really political malpractice, dab essentially no economic message when,

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Speaker 1: as we've been pointing out, voters have been telling you

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Speaker 1: for months that's the number one issue. It is not

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Speaker 1: a freaking surprise. And even if look, you're the party

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Speaker 1: in power, it's a difficult thing to overcome. But given

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Speaker 1: the strength of the numbers on abortion, if they just

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Speaker 1: had eaten into the Republican margin on the economy by

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Speaker 1: a little bit, that could have ultimately made the difference.

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Speaker 1: But if I want to play Devil's advocate here and

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Speaker 1: make the case for the Democrats, you would say, look

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Speaker 1: at these turnout numbers. They are through the roof. Democrats

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Speaker 1: are outnumbering Republicans in the early vote. You have some

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Speaker 1: of our core constituencies, including African Americans, turning out in

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Speaker 1: droves in key races in Georgia in particular. You have

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Speaker 1: a number of open seats where we had special elections

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Speaker 1: where you know, Democrats outperformed how they were doing. So

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Speaker 1: we're actually, we believe the polls are actually not capturing

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Speaker 1: the enthusiasm on our side. That would be the Democratic case.

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Speaker 1: Do I really buy that at this point, just given

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Speaker 1: the overwhelming you know, economic numbers and how people are

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Speaker 1: feeling about the country, where Biden's approval rating is, his

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Speaker 1: approval rating is basically the same place as where Obama

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Speaker 1: and Trumps were going into their first midterms when they

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Speaker 1: suffered significant losses. Do it? So, I do I really

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Speaker 1: buy the like democratic ho ful case. No, not really.

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Speaker 1: And guess what I heard all of that in twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty and then they almost lost the election by forty

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Speaker 1: thousand votes. So like, look, I remember, you know, whenever

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Speaker 1: House Democrats said that they were going to have a

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Speaker 1: massive wave, and then what they had their margin was

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Speaker 1: my seat, you know, as Nancy Pelosi, and actually Republicans

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Speaker 1: held on decently in the Senate, and you know, remember

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Speaker 1: Jamie Harrison supposedly was tied with Lindsey Graham and then

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Speaker 1: Graham beating by like eighteen points. Look, I remember, I'm

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Speaker 1: going to factor that in. Maybe it's decency bias, certainly

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Speaker 1: could be, it could be a totally different environment. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: but in the Trump age twenty sixteen, onwards. Polling has

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Speaker 1: been eradically broken. There is no reason to believe that

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Speaker 1: that isn't the exact same case today. Yeah, I'd be

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Speaker 1: happy to update my priors. Well it is. Here's the

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Speaker 1: other thing too, It's not even just a US trend.

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Speaker 1: Like we see these big polling misses in favor of

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Speaker 1: the Liberal Party around the world. That means, yeah, happened exactly.

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Speaker 1: I mean, that was the one that I was really

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Speaker 1: thinking of, but we've seen it in other places as well.

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Speaker 1: So there is something going on where the polling industry

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Speaker 1: admits that they haven't fixed or even figured out whatever

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Speaker 1: went wrong the last time around. So that's sort of

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Speaker 1: how I'm viewing all of these polls. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: dig into Pennsylvania because this is obviously one of the

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Speaker 1: marquee races. Fetterman early on had a huge lead according

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Speaker 1: to the polls, that has tightened significantly. Here is the

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Speaker 1: latest firm Rasmussen, which has Fetterment at four forty five

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Speaker 1: and odds at forty three, so Fetterman with a narrow

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Speaker 1: plus two lead. They also have the race for governor

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Speaker 1: very close, Shapiro forty three, Mastriano at forty very different

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Speaker 1: picture than the picture we showed you before with CNN.

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Speaker 1: We do have just as a reminder, go ahead and

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Speaker 1: put the CNN pulling there up on the screen the

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Speaker 1: next piece, which has Fetterman plus five and Mastriano plus

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Speaker 1: I mean Shapiro over Mastriano plus fifteen. One thing that

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Speaker 1: I did note here is Fetterman continues to be above

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Speaker 1: water in terms of his approval rating, which for a

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Speaker 1: modern politician is really quite an accomplishment. Oz significantly almost

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Speaker 1: twenty points underwater on his approval rating, and you see

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Speaker 1: an even wider disparity among Shapiro and Mastriano. Shapiro has

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Speaker 1: a huge positive favorability rating. I'm not going to embarrass

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Speaker 1: myself by trying to do that math live because I'm

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Speaker 1: just not that smart. Mostreano is significantly underwater on his

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Speaker 1: approval rating. So I think there's a battle playing out,

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Speaker 1: as I was alluding to before, of like do I

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Speaker 1: care more about how I feel about this candidate or

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Speaker 1: do I care more about who I want to control

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Speaker 1: the Senate in Washington. You know, even a lot of

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Speaker 1: swing voters have this sort of instinct of like, oh,

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Speaker 1: I want divided government to serve as a check on

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Speaker 1: one party or the other, which I think is part

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Speaker 1: of why you see this historical phenomenon of the party

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Speaker 1: in power doing poorly in the midterms or ultimately so

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Speaker 1: kind of no matter what poll you look at, this

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Speaker 1: race has definitely tightened. I think that two things have

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Speaker 1: been effective for OZ. First of all, I honestly think

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Speaker 1: that the biggest thing that they've done effectively is the

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Speaker 1: crime messaging, and that seems to be that seems to

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Speaker 1: be working in a lot of states across the board

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Speaker 1: right now. And then you know, Fetterman did a really

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Speaker 1: good job early on defining the OZ campaign. Now they've

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Speaker 1: been kind of on their back foot trying to defend

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Speaker 1: his just ability to be able to do the job.

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Speaker 1: You see that going into the debate tonight. We have

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Speaker 1: Dave Weigel who is now with that new Semaphore. He

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Speaker 1: left the Post. That's a whole other story we could

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Speaker 1: talk about there, but anyway, so I wiggle over at

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Speaker 1: Semaphore now noted that Fetterman's team, we can put this

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Speaker 1: up on the screen, is messaging in advance of the

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Speaker 1: debate that they're kind of trying to the herschel Walker

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Speaker 1: method of downplaying expectations. They're warning that we should anticipate

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Speaker 1: viral videos of him quote, missing some words, etc. They

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Speaker 1: acknowledge he was never a great debater. That was an

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Speaker 1: issue in the primary where Lamb Kenyata knocked him for

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Speaker 1: skipping some debates. Let me just read you a little

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Speaker 1: bit more of the campaign statement. They're saying, we're prepared

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Speaker 1: for Oz's allies and right, we need you to circulate

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Speaker 1: malicious viral videos after the debate that try to paint

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Speaker 1: John in a negative light because of awkward pauses, missing

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Speaker 1: some words, mushing other words together. The captioning process might

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Speaker 1: lead to time delays and errors in the exchanges between

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Speaker 1: the moderations and the candidates. In fact, because the captions

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Speaker 1: are going to be typed out by human beings in

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Speaker 1: real time on live TV, some amount of human error

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Speaker 1: and then transcription is inevitable might cause temporary miscommunication at

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Speaker 1: times it's impossible to control and unavoidable. That's okay. What

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Speaker 1: is that people get to see and hear John's values.

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Speaker 1: So they're referring there to the fact that you know

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Speaker 1: he has continued auditory processing issues. Fine, if he can

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Speaker 1: read the text but has trouble, just like in real

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Speaker 1: time hearing what people are saying and really processing that

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Speaker 1: and comprehending it. So they're going to be using close

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Speaker 1: captions like we saw him use in a number of interviews,

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Speaker 1: which you know is undoubtedly going to lead to a

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Speaker 1: kind of like awkward experience. I mean forever to watch

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Speaker 1: right and look more. What I would say is, in general,

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Speaker 1: I don't think any of these things matter. We said

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Speaker 1: that over and over again. Now, look, actually think dates

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Speaker 1: are important in terms of putting candidates on the record

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Speaker 1: in the future. They're really useful whenever you're looking at

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Speaker 1: them years later and said, well you said this. But

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Speaker 1: in general, we have reams of political science data to

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Speaker 1: show us that debates have almost no impact on the

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Speaker 1: general election, and it is almost entirely like a media

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Speaker 1: driven phenomenon. Now does that mean that we won't pay attention, Sure,

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Speaker 1: we'll pay attention, but again only to look at noteworthy things,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily to say that this is going to move

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Speaker 1: the direction in one way. Or yeah, you really have

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Speaker 1: to have some kind of crazy off the wall moment

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Speaker 1: for it to penetrate really at all. I mean, we

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Speaker 1: haven't seen any There have been a number of Senate

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Speaker 1: debates at this point with a bunch of clips circulating around,

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Speaker 1: but they haven't really moved anything. You have to stay

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Speaker 1: at this debated last night. Does anybody care there was

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Speaker 1: like one or two clips. I was like, Oh, it

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Speaker 1: doesn't look that great. Yeah, no, it doesn't matter. It's

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Speaker 1: not going to do anything. I just think that again,

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Speaker 1: I think it's sad, but people are driven much more

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Speaker 1: by the national environment and frankly the positions that these

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Speaker 1: people take as long as they hold their ground within

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Speaker 1: like a median twenty fifth to seventy fifth percentile or whatever, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean Fedderman, I think they're smart to downplay expectations here,

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Speaker 1: and like I said, it worked down for herschel Walker. Overall,

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Speaker 1: as I watched these polls close and Republicans close the gap,

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Speaker 1: it really does validate my view that candidate quality really

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Speaker 1: just doesn't matter that much, you know, agree, because even

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Speaker 1: in the fetterman Oz race or in the Shapiro Mastriano

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Speaker 1: race in Pennsylvania, like you look at the approval ratings,

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Speaker 1: so there's these huge disparities. I think there was a

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Speaker 1: time when that would dictate like, oh, this guy's going

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Speaker 1: to run away with it now because partisan affiliation, because

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Speaker 1: politics are so national, and because partisan affiliation is so strong,

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Speaker 1: I just don't think it really matters that much anymore.

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Speaker 1: So we have all these debates about like how should

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Speaker 1: you run and what should you be saying, you know,

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Speaker 1: and like should you align yourself more on the left

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Speaker 1: or more in the center, and what should your affect

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Speaker 1: be and all these things, and these scandals that come

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Speaker 1: out with herschel Walker and whatever. And ultimately even something

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Speaker 1: like that where you have a kind of extreme case

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Speaker 1: of a really bad candidate who just like routinely lies

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Speaker 1: and it's hypocritical in his personal life and all of that,

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Speaker 1: it might make a little bit of a difference. I

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Speaker 1: think Walker would probably be clearly leading in that race

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Speaker 1: if he hadn't had all of these scandals, But it

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Speaker 1: is not the like clear determinative factor that it ultimately

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Speaker 1: once was. The last thing to note here in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: which is an interesting conversation in and of itself, is

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Speaker 1: that Biden and Obama are planning on going to Pennsylvania

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Speaker 1: to try, as Axios frames it, to lock down that

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Speaker 1: state for Fetterman and from Ostriano. They're going to barnstorm

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Speaker 1: Philadelphia and Pittsburgh areas on November fifth, with the party

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Speaker 1: nominees for Pennsylvania governor and Senate. One thing that's interesting

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Speaker 1: here is that, first of all, the choice of Pennsylvania. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: it is interesting they sort of see this as, I guess,

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Speaker 1: the key state in terms of being able to hold

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00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,560
Speaker 1: onto the Senate. The other thing that's interesting here, though,

429
00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:39,440
Speaker 1: is that Biden has really not campaigned for Democrats hardly

430
00:21:39,560 --> 00:21:41,760
Speaker 1: at all. I mean, He's done a little bit, but

431
00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,160
Speaker 1: at this point, Trump had fronted rallies in twenty six

432
00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 1: cities leading into his midterm election, and Obama had held fourteen.

433
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: I mean, Trump famously loves going on being whatever eats

434
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: it up, right, But even though you know, Obama, who

435
00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 1: was equally as unpopular as Biden back in that point,

436
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 1: and in some ways it was more of a central

437
00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:06,199
Speaker 1: figure in terms of the election and the messaging and whatever,

438
00:22:06,640 --> 00:22:09,400
Speaker 1: he had gone out and held fourteen rallies. So read

439
00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 1: into that which you will. Personally, you know, I mean,

440
00:22:11,680 --> 00:22:13,679
Speaker 1: Biden's not great on the stump. It wasn't good on

441
00:22:13,680 --> 00:22:15,960
Speaker 1: the stump in his own campaign, sort of low energy,

442
00:22:16,119 --> 00:22:19,280
Speaker 1: you know, kind of putting on display, creating opportunities for

443
00:22:19,280 --> 00:22:22,119
Speaker 1: people to see some of the brain malfunctions and whatever.

444
00:22:22,240 --> 00:22:23,920
Speaker 1: So I don't think that they've seen it as that

445
00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:25,760
Speaker 1: much of an asset, either for him or for the

446
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 1: candidates for him to be on the trail. But nevertheless,

447
00:22:28,160 --> 00:22:31,480
Speaker 1: the two are reuniting for this tour of Pennsylvania apparently. Yeah,

448
00:22:31,520 --> 00:22:34,040
Speaker 1: I mean that's interesting. I actually saw them speak in Pennsylvania.

449
00:22:34,040 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: I think it was twenty twelve. It was kind of interesting.

450
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:40,040
Speaker 1: It was a very different Biden back then. Yeah, that's right, Obama. Look,

451
00:22:40,080 --> 00:22:42,240
Speaker 1: he's a formidable force on the stump. That being said,

452
00:22:42,280 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 1: the stump actually matter. There really is not a lot

453
00:22:44,560 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 1: of evidence to show that either. It really is crazy. Yeah,

454
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,320
Speaker 1: when you consider like all of the things that people

455
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:52,840
Speaker 1: pour money into, and at the end of the day,

456
00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:56,280
Speaker 1: negative ads and then the national mood seem to matter

457
00:22:56,359 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 1: more than anything, and negative ads are probably a lot

458
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:01,600
Speaker 1: less effective than the national mood. Like, I would much

459
00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 1: rather just something happened to Joe Biden or you know,

460
00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: I'm saying this not in a good way, but like

461
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,639
Speaker 1: it'd be better if the economy crash or something like

462
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:12,199
Speaker 1: that right before the election than any ad dollar you spend.

463
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,919
Speaker 1: I remember in my own hometown and college station, we

464
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,480
Speaker 1: had a place a guy named ched Edwards. He had

465
00:23:17,520 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 1: survived every single challenge he represented. He was a Democrat

466
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: representing like an R plus twenty six district. He always

467
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:27,920
Speaker 1: won on local issues, veterans affairs, He lived in office

468
00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,080
Speaker 1: for twenty great constituent services, that kind of guy, incredible,

469
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 1: can say blue dog to the core. All of that.

470
00:23:33,640 --> 00:23:36,920
Speaker 1: Twenty ten wiped out by thirty points, and he had

471
00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 1: survived twenty point league thirty point. He lost the biggest

472
00:23:40,359 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 1: margin in the entire House of Representatives. Wow, And I

473
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:44,520
Speaker 1: remember asking him, he was like, is there anything you

474
00:23:44,520 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: could have done? He's like, nothing, nothing I could have done.

475
00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:50,119
Speaker 1: You know, there's having personally lost a congressional race by

476
00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:52,240
Speaker 1: a large margin, there's some comfort in it because, yeah,

477
00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:54,800
Speaker 1: you just know, you don't agonize over like, oh it

478
00:23:54,840 --> 00:23:56,959
Speaker 1: was just a few hundred more. If I just didn't know,

479
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:59,040
Speaker 1: you just look at it. You're like, there is no

480
00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:01,159
Speaker 1: way anyone and could have pulled this thing off, no

481
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:04,520
Speaker 1: matter how much money, your different decisions or whatever. And

482
00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,680
Speaker 1: I do think increasingly that's the thing, you know, something

483
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 1: that underscores my view also of how national politics is,

484
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 1: how partisan politics is ultimately in Pennsylvania, and I think

485
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 1: this was the case also in Wisconsin. In that CNN poll,

486
00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:25,639
Speaker 1: there is no overlap basically at all between the people

487
00:24:25,640 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: who have a favorable view of Betterment and the people

488
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,320
Speaker 1: that have a favorable view of Oz. You're one of

489
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:32,880
Speaker 1: the other. There is like, so let me, I'll give

490
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: you the numbers. Uh, seventy nine percent of Pennsylvania likely

491
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:40,159
Speaker 1: voters like one of them and dislike the other, one

492
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 1: percent have a positive view of both, and eight percent

493
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 1: have a negative view of both. So there's only one

494
00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 1: percent of Pennsylvania voters. It's like, you know, the other

495
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 1: of these guys, they're kind of they're kind of okay, dudes.

496
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 1: Like almost everybody is either I like OZ or I

497
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 1: like Betterman and there is no one between. And like

498
00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 1: I said, Wisconsin, it was exactly exactly the same dynamic.

499
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 1: Not that surprising, I guess, but just kind of interesting

500
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,240
Speaker 1: to actually see the numbers on that completely agree. Okay,

501
00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 1: let's go ahead and move on to Ukraine. Some fascinating

502
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,520
Speaker 1: stuff happening here in Washington. There's been some major debates.

503
00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: Counterpoints did a great job covering it, but we have

504
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: an update on the democratic front. For a while. Krystal

505
00:25:18,040 --> 00:25:20,080
Speaker 1: and I've been asking, We're like, hey, where is the

506
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:24,360
Speaker 1: anti war movement? Like does it even exist? So yesterday

507
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:26,880
Speaker 1: heartened to see a letter. Let's put this up there

508
00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: on the screen. This makes it actually bipartisan in terms

509
00:25:29,480 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 1: of criticism of the war. Thirty House Democrats, mostly of

510
00:25:32,480 --> 00:25:36,680
Speaker 1: the House Progressive Caucus, led by Representative Promilla Jaiapaul, called

511
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:40,640
Speaker 1: on Biden to have unprecedented to pair their unprecedented economic

512
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:46,080
Speaker 1: and military support with quote proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts

513
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 1: to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire. That's it.

514
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,920
Speaker 1: If you go ahead and you read their letter, data

515
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:55,880
Speaker 1: is one of the most innocuous things possible. They do

516
00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: not call into question ongoing arm sales to Ukraine. They

517
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:02,320
Speaker 1: do not say that the US should force the Ukrainians' hands.

518
00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:05,320
Speaker 1: They do not say many of the provocative things. They

519
00:26:05,359 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 1: go out of their way, yes, clearly to not say

520
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 1: that with reassuring language. But of course it's up to

521
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: the Ukrainians. And of course we see Russia's not good

522
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: actors here. Of course we know this would be very difficult,

523
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: but maybe kind of sorto, we should consider possibly thinking

524
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,480
Speaker 1: about diplomatic action. That's it. That's basically the letter. That

525
00:26:22,560 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 1: is all this, and I will read you the conclusion.

526
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:27,919
Speaker 1: And conclusion, we urge you to make vigorous diplomatic efforts

527
00:26:27,920 --> 00:26:30,720
Speaker 1: in support of a negotiated settlement and ceasefire. Engage in

528
00:26:30,760 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 1: direct talks with Russia, Explore prospects for a new European

529
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: security arrangement acceptable to all parties that will allow for sovereign,

530
00:26:36,640 --> 00:26:39,760
Speaker 1: independent Ukraine, and in coordination with our Ukrainian partners, seek

531
00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:41,880
Speaker 1: a rapid end to the conflict, and reiterate this goal

532
00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,520
Speaker 1: as America's chief priority. That's it. That's all they said.

533
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:50,720
Speaker 1: Frankly innocuous, not particularly groundbreaking. Many much much more provocative

534
00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:52,720
Speaker 1: things have been said on this show, of which you know,

535
00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,080
Speaker 1: the pro Ukraine people have been upset about. That's fine,

536
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: you could be upset about this, but I don't see

537
00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:00,800
Speaker 1: how this is anything not within the bounds of public debate.

538
00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,320
Speaker 1: And yet the freak out that this letter caused in

539
00:27:05,520 --> 00:27:10,800
Speaker 1: Washington is unparalleled, and especially because they're on the Democratic

540
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 1: side and they're much more susceptible. I think, tell me

541
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: if you disagree to criticism from elite media circles and

542
00:27:16,359 --> 00:27:19,720
Speaker 1: all of that. They pained within a matter of hours.

543
00:27:19,720 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: That letter came out in the afternoon, four to five

544
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:24,520
Speaker 1: hours later. Put this up there on the screen. Primila

545
00:27:24,600 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 1: Ja Paul go ahead and issues a statement. She says,

546
00:27:27,560 --> 00:27:29,760
Speaker 1: in a letter to President died in, my colleagues and

547
00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 1: I advocated for the administration to continue ongoing support. Let

548
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,480
Speaker 1: me be clear, we are united as Democrats and our

549
00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:38,880
Speaker 1: unequivocal commitment to supporting Ukraine in their fight for democracy

550
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:41,080
Speaker 1: and freedom in the face of the diplomacy is an

551
00:27:41,080 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 1: important tool that can save lives. But it is just

552
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:45,840
Speaker 1: one tool, as we also made explicitly clear all of that.

553
00:27:45,880 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: I mean, it's a total capitulation where they came out

554
00:27:48,280 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 1: and just said, actually, no, we didn't mean it, and

555
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:53,159
Speaker 1: actually we're one hundred percent in line with President Biden,

556
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,440
Speaker 1: and please don't criticize us anymore. We're not anti Ukraine.

557
00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,720
Speaker 1: We really just want democracy. It's just hilarious. And to

558
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:05,080
Speaker 1: watch this real capitulation in real time, I mean just

559
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 1: instant right, and now I was tracking because even as

560
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,879
Speaker 1: like moderate and carefully worded and milk toast as this

561
00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 1: thing was, I was like, this is thirty Democrats. They're

562
00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 1: not all squad members, you know, AFC and Corey Bush

563
00:28:20,480 --> 00:28:22,159
Speaker 1: and those folks ill Han where they were on it,

564
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:24,280
Speaker 1: that's right, But it was also these sort of like

565
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 1: more main Jamie Raskin and other sort of like mainline

566
00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: from Texas. Right. I was like, okay, all right, we're

567
00:28:32,119 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 1: at least opening up a conversation. And I was shocked

568
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 1: because I knew they were going to get massive backlash

569
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: because you know, we see the way that this all unfolds,

570
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: there is zero room to question the direction in the

571
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: strategy whatsoever. Zero, Okay. So I was truly surprised, and

572
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 1: I was truly impressed. I was truly impressed. Rocana is

573
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 1: the only person that I've heard saying really any of

574
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,520
Speaker 1: that before this letter comes out. And then I start

575
00:28:57,560 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 1: to watch online. In fact, we were planning our show.

576
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,200
Speaker 1: I was looking at the replies and the quote tweets

577
00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:08,880
Speaker 1: from all of the blob aligned mainstream resistance. All these

578
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 1: people just went all in piling on these people, even

579
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,320
Speaker 1: some of their fellow members of the quote unquote Progressive

580
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:21,000
Speaker 1: Caucus like Reuben Diego, going all in trashing them. They're

581
00:29:21,040 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 1: being accused of being Russian stooges. Marcos Malitis accused them

582
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:30,520
Speaker 1: of making quote common cause with Lauren Bobert, Marjorie Taylor, Green, jd. Vance,

583
00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 1: and the rest of the MAGA crowd. All of this

584
00:29:34,440 --> 00:29:38,360
Speaker 1: just absolute vicious attacks on these people, questioning their motives,

585
00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,920
Speaker 1: questioning their intelligence, questioning the timing of the letter, everything,

586
00:29:42,480 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: and almost instantly they completely cave. It's so depressing, It

587
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:52,560
Speaker 1: is so incredibly dispiriting to see that you can't even

588
00:29:52,760 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: open the door a crack to saying maybe we should

589
00:29:56,440 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 1: think about diplomacy to end this war. And Ryan Grim,

590
00:30:00,480 --> 00:30:01,840
Speaker 1: I think we have this. Let's put this up on

591
00:30:01,840 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 1: the screen. Of course, our Counterpoints co host here, he

592
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: had a great article breaking all of his down He's

593
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 1: his thirty House Democrats tried to gently open the door

594
00:30:10,280 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: to diplomacy in Ukraine. It was slammed in their face

595
00:30:14,240 --> 00:30:17,320
Speaker 1: by the end of the day. And he goes into

596
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 1: some of the pushback that we saw online and on

597
00:30:20,840 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 1: cable news and in other places. He goes into the

598
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:29,520
Speaker 1: timeline of how instantly Primilagiapol in particular just completely caved

599
00:30:29,840 --> 00:30:33,880
Speaker 1: and it's utterly pathetic. He quotes here Eric Sperling, who's

600
00:30:34,000 --> 00:30:38,240
Speaker 1: executive director of Just Foreign Policy, which had endorsed this letter,

601
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:41,960
Speaker 1: and he actually made I thought an interesting point. He

602
00:30:42,040 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: cast the extreme opposition to it as a sign of

603
00:30:44,360 --> 00:30:47,760
Speaker 1: the fragility of the anti diplomacy consensus. He says, the

604
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 1: shrill response to this utterly moderate letter exposes that war

605
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: proponents are scared of an open debate about the range

606
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 1: of potential approaches to addressing this conflict. Has happened with

607
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:02,760
Speaker 1: the Horn, Iraq and many other surround human history. War

608
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: proponents attempt to silence and debate in large part because

609
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:08,880
Speaker 1: they are not confident in their arguments, and they are

610
00:31:08,920 --> 00:31:13,719
Speaker 1: afraid that pro diplomacy views will appeal to average Americans.

611
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,320
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what we have seen when the question

612
00:31:17,400 --> 00:31:21,840
Speaker 1: has been asked. There is a large majority of people

613
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:26,719
Speaker 1: who are interested in diplomacy because guess what, if we

614
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:29,200
Speaker 1: want this war to end, that's the way that we're

615
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: going to I mean, even if you imagine which most

616
00:31:32,440 --> 00:31:34,880
Speaker 1: analysts don't say that Ukraine, even if we, you know,

617
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: continue to arm them, and most of them don't think

618
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: that they can outright win and push Russia all the

619
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:42,720
Speaker 1: way out of their territory. But let's say, okay, maybe

620
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 1: they could. Do you really think that Vladimir Putin is

621
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,360
Speaker 1: just going to sit back and accept defeat without somehow escalating,

622
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:52,000
Speaker 1: without some sort of desperate moves, without creating some sort

623
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:55,240
Speaker 1: of chaos and catastrophe, because I sure don't so the

624
00:31:55,360 --> 00:31:59,959
Speaker 1: idea that you can't even say this without being viciously smeared,

625
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:04,480
Speaker 1: attacked online and accused both of being you know, Russian propagandists,

626
00:32:04,480 --> 00:32:08,120
Speaker 1: but also the ultimate sin of having anything in common

627
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:10,160
Speaker 1: with you know, people who are supposed to be out

628
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: of bounds like Marjorie Tayler Green. Oh no fan of

629
00:32:12,520 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 1: but I think it's a ridiculous person. But you can

630
00:32:14,960 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 1: use that hard partisan divide to just shut people up.

631
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,880
Speaker 1: It's so disgraceful. I can't even wrap my head around it.

632
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:24,360
Speaker 1: I mean, honestly, I am finding some comfort in this

633
00:32:24,400 --> 00:32:26,920
Speaker 1: crystal because I am just seeing that there is a

634
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,360
Speaker 1: massive political hole waiting to be filled that will one

635
00:32:30,440 --> 00:32:34,120
Speaker 1: day make its war voice heard. Yeah, via the democratic process.

636
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:36,640
Speaker 1: Americans are not stupid. The closer that we get to

637
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 1: nuclear war, they're going to say, hell no, we're not

638
00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: interested in this. The establishment and the Ukrainians have made

639
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 1: a tremendous, tremendous error in allying themselves with the mainstream

640
00:32:45,520 --> 00:32:48,040
Speaker 1: Democratic Party, which is about to get its ass kicked

641
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 1: in Congress, and guess what, House Republicans. There's already a

642
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 1: civil war that is erupting, right, But it's up there

643
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: on the screen, which is that Kevin McCarthy came out

644
00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 1: and said to Punch Bowl News, actually, we are very

645
00:32:59,680 --> 00:33:03,040
Speaker 1: likely not to approve any more aid to Ukraine. Now

646
00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:05,440
Speaker 1: they used fiscal language in order to say that, and

647
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,000
Speaker 1: whatever I mean, I guess better than nothing. But Mitch

648
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 1: McConnell said, no, that's not going to stand all of that. Now, listen,

649
00:33:12,640 --> 00:33:14,719
Speaker 1: do I think Kevin McCarthy will actually have the stones

650
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: to stick by his position. No, I think he'll probably

651
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 1: cave to the blob as well. But what it does

652
00:33:19,560 --> 00:33:21,840
Speaker 1: show me is that if the pressure is on enough

653
00:33:21,840 --> 00:33:23,960
Speaker 1: to McCarthy for him to publicly come out and to

654
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:27,240
Speaker 1: question the Washington consensus, imagine what a Donald Trump like

655
00:33:27,280 --> 00:33:30,760
Speaker 1: figure who we showed you is already advocating for negotiation

656
00:33:30,800 --> 00:33:33,640
Speaker 1: and diplomacy. Let's say the war gets even hotter ahead

657
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty four election. Remember, everybody thought that

658
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 1: Americans were going to freak out when Trump was calling

659
00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 1: out NATO allies. Didn't happen. Everybody thought that the Americans

660
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 1: were going to say, my god, he's questioning the free

661
00:33:45,440 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 1: trade consensus. Nope, actually turns out that they support it

662
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: in wide numbers. So listen, they have seeded the ground

663
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,600
Speaker 1: for the debate to the fringe and to Donald Trump,

664
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 1: he is not a fool Trump if his greatest skill

665
00:33:58,280 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: is intuiting which areas of public consensus and rhetoric are

666
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:05,480
Speaker 1: completely out of the bounds, seizing onto it and hammering

667
00:34:05,480 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 1: it home and hammering it and pissing off the establishment

668
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,279
Speaker 1: who screech and make the They make the issue even

669
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 1: louder for Americans who love to see them melt down.

670
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,640
Speaker 1: So the Ukraine consensus of February of twenty twenty two

671
00:34:19,960 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: is long gone. Go ahead and take a look at

672
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 1: every pole that exists. GOP voters are split right down

673
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:28,600
Speaker 1: the middle on continued aid for Ukraine, every concern Veterans

674
00:34:28,600 --> 00:34:30,319
Speaker 1: of an America pole that we've ever showed you has

675
00:34:30,320 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 1: shown a tremendous preference for diplomacy. Right now, the entire

676
00:34:33,800 --> 00:34:37,600
Speaker 1: Ukraine debate really is shrouded in secrecy. They don't want

677
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,120
Speaker 1: people to know. And look, you know, we're not stupid.

678
00:34:40,280 --> 00:34:42,080
Speaker 1: As many people could watch this show, as many people

679
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 1: who watch the News. Most Americans have no idea what's

680
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,960
Speaker 1: going on in Ukraine. They have no idea how close

681
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: we are to a Cuban missile crisis. I said this before.

682
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: I believe one of the most shameful things that Joe

683
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:53,680
Speaker 1: Biden has done is to tell a bunch of rich

684
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 1: Democratic donors that we are on the verge of nuclear armageddon.

685
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: And if you believe that, you owe a direct address

686
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,080
Speaker 1: to them people to tell it. But he can't tell

687
00:35:02,080 --> 00:35:04,520
Speaker 1: you that because if you do, you're gonna be like, well,

688
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 1: hold on a second, bed, what are we doing about that? Yeah?

689
00:35:07,320 --> 00:35:09,520
Speaker 1: Are we gonna Are we gonna stop that? He would

690
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:11,400
Speaker 1: prefer everybody go about their lives and go to the

691
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,760
Speaker 1: gym and you know, argue about inflation or whatever, because

692
00:35:14,920 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: the longer that happens, Washington is allowed to continue doing

693
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 1: what it wants. It operates in secrecy. And yet they

694
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 1: never learned their lesson. They didn't learn it from Iraq,

695
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 1: they didn't learn it from Libya, they didn't learn it

696
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:28,719
Speaker 1: from Afghanistan. Americans will make their voice heard eventually in

697
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,919
Speaker 1: some way, and you are not gonna like it when

698
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:34,400
Speaker 1: that day comes. That's right, And the instinct to just

699
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 1: completely shut down any discussion like there is literally you

700
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:43,080
Speaker 1: are not allowed to dissent even one inch, which is

701
00:35:43,080 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: effectively what this letter was. Yes, this letter was like

702
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:50,279
Speaker 1: one inch of descent, and they had everything thrown at

703
00:35:50,280 --> 00:35:54,359
Speaker 1: them to shut them down, and you know, they instantly cave.

704
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: And this is a repeated problem obviously with the you know,

705
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 1: so called Progressive Caucus, where they cannot take any heat

706
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:07,759
Speaker 1: from democratic leadership, from the mainstream press, from freaking you know,

707
00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:11,600
Speaker 1: idiot pontificators on Twitter. They can't take it. They just

708
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: instantly fold, and so it is really depressing. Rocanna did

709
00:36:18,200 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 1: have a decent statement, even after everybody else around him capitulated.

710
00:36:23,239 --> 00:36:25,319
Speaker 1: He said to Ryan, it should not be controversial to

711
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:27,680
Speaker 1: say we need to explore every diplomatic avenue to seek

712
00:36:27,680 --> 00:36:29,400
Speaker 1: a just peace and to end the war, including the

713
00:36:29,400 --> 00:36:31,919
Speaker 1: engagement of our allies to help with that. He's right,

714
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: it shouldn't be controversial. But apparently this is you know,

715
00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,880
Speaker 1: considered completely out of bounce to even have the conversation

716
00:36:38,960 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 1: about a diplomatic end to this war when the President

717
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: of the United States is openly admitting that we could

718
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:48,040
Speaker 1: face potential nuclear armagedin and yet we're still like Yeah,

719
00:36:48,040 --> 00:36:50,000
Speaker 1: this direction we're going in is fine, and you can't

720
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 1: even question it. You can't even say anything about it.

721
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: You can't even say suggest at all a different direction.

722
00:36:55,960 --> 00:36:58,200
Speaker 1: It's so depressing to me. I wish they just wouldn't

723
00:36:58,200 --> 00:37:00,520
Speaker 1: have said anything. Let's show them why why did this happened?

724
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,000
Speaker 1: Put this up there on the screen from the pagandis

725
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 1: over at the Washington Post. Here's the headline, why Putin

726
00:37:06,680 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: hopes for a GOP victory, as explained by a top

727
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:13,840
Speaker 1: Russia expert. This was the prevailing consensus all up and

728
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,880
Speaker 1: down the line in terms of the elite press, because

729
00:37:17,080 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: if you suggest anything even close to diplomacy, you are

730
00:37:20,760 --> 00:37:23,840
Speaker 1: a Putin asset. I have no love for Vladimir Putin. Okay,

731
00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:26,319
Speaker 1: I don't want to die in a nuclear armageddon. I

732
00:37:26,360 --> 00:37:29,120
Speaker 1: want America to survive and to be better off. I

733
00:37:29,160 --> 00:37:31,280
Speaker 1: don't think that has anything to do with Vladimir Putin.

734
00:37:31,520 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 1: I don't get to exist sadly in a world where

735
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 1: he is dead and doesn't exist. We have to accept

736
00:37:36,320 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 1: terms on which they are. We can hope for many things.

737
00:37:39,200 --> 00:37:41,440
Speaker 1: I hope for a world with no war. But I'm

738
00:37:41,440 --> 00:37:43,319
Speaker 1: not an idiot. You know. It's like one of these

739
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 1: things where we have to accept the reality of the

740
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,280
Speaker 1: conditions as they exist. In terms of their nuclear power status,

741
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,480
Speaker 1: in terms of what their red lines are. These are

742
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,840
Speaker 1: not things that we necessarily should be happy about. We

743
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:56,960
Speaker 1: have our red lines, They've been very clearly articulated. It's

744
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: called NATO. Anything outside of that really is up for debate.

745
00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: This is the part of the thing that drives me insane.

746
00:38:03,200 --> 00:38:05,719
Speaker 1: Whenever they say, well, if we capitulate in Ukraine, what

747
00:38:05,760 --> 00:38:08,200
Speaker 1: will stop us from capitulating in NATO. NATO is a

748
00:38:08,239 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: Senate ratified treaty. The president has no authority to even

749
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:14,600
Speaker 1: withdraw format, even if he wanted to. If they attack NATO,

750
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,880
Speaker 1: we will be in a nuclear war. If they attack

751
00:38:16,920 --> 00:38:19,440
Speaker 1: anywhere outside of NATO, we have a choice. If we

752
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: have a choice, we should probably do anything humanly possible

753
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 1: in order to make sure that we don't make that

754
00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:29,239
Speaker 1: that does not occur. We had a play of this

755
00:38:29,360 --> 00:38:31,400
Speaker 1: in the Cuban missile crisis. We had a play of

756
00:38:31,400 --> 00:38:35,320
Speaker 1: this in Korea. I wish for the days of statesmen

757
00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: who had to confront the reality of war. We had

758
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:40,960
Speaker 1: three successive presidents faced a nuclear crisis. Harry S. Truman

759
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,440
Speaker 1: Dwight the Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy, all of them were

760
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 1: forged in the crisis of World War two. Truman back

761
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 1: down and fired MacArthur because he feared that war over

762
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:55,759
Speaker 1: Little Korea would have a conflagration. Basically pursued a strategy

763
00:38:55,800 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 1: which was probably may not have been best on the battlefield.

764
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,799
Speaker 1: This is controversial, according to Karthur, but had an overarching

765
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,480
Speaker 1: diplomatic aim of I do not want to confront the

766
00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:05,919
Speaker 1: Soviet Union. Same thing with Dwight D. Eisenhower. They wanted

767
00:39:05,960 --> 00:39:08,200
Speaker 1: him to use nukes or threaten them in the Suez Crisis.

768
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:09,919
Speaker 1: At Dan ben Fiel, he said, you're out of your mind.

769
00:39:09,960 --> 00:39:11,880
Speaker 1: I've been through this. I'm not going to happen. John F.

770
00:39:11,960 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 1: Kennedy the exact same. I fear that our politicians have

771
00:39:15,120 --> 00:39:17,319
Speaker 1: just been so far removed from the reality of what

772
00:39:17,360 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 1: a global crisis actually looks like. That that's the cavalier

773
00:39:20,520 --> 00:39:23,160
Speaker 1: nature of why elite media too, whose sons, of course

774
00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:26,359
Speaker 1: have never served in the military or have any generational

775
00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 1: connection to this, they have no idea. I just watch

776
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:31,800
Speaker 1: All Quiet on the Western Front. I urge all of

777
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:33,840
Speaker 1: you to watch it whenever it comes out on Netflix.

778
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:36,080
Speaker 1: I saw it, and it's limited theater release. That's what

779
00:39:36,120 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 1: war looks like. People dying up until the last minute

780
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,319
Speaker 1: of the armistice for some scrap of France which was

781
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:45,120
Speaker 1: turned into mud. That's the reality of what the situation is, right,

782
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 1: And I mean it just there's so much fuzzy thinking here.

783
00:39:49,640 --> 00:39:53,360
Speaker 1: People love their simplistic narratives, and I get it. The

784
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:56,360
Speaker 1: Ukrainians are the good guys, and Putin and the Krumlin

785
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: and his allies are the bad guys. Like, no disagreement here,

786
00:40:00,480 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 1: But give me some sort of logical endgame that makes

787
00:40:05,400 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 1: any kind of sense that doesn't end in complete catastrophe

788
00:40:09,400 --> 00:40:12,719
Speaker 1: for the Ukrainians, for Europe and potentially for the world.

789
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 1: Give me some logical, step by step how do you

790
00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: see this thing ending? They never tell you that. They

791
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,680
Speaker 1: never get to them. And I think, even though obviously

792
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,520
Speaker 1: we're very clear and very passionate about our own perspective

793
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,400
Speaker 1: on how this should all play out, I think we

794
00:40:30,480 --> 00:40:34,440
Speaker 1: have tried to hold space for what the opposing view is,

795
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:38,719
Speaker 1: what the opposing arguments are, and I fully admit it

796
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 1: is a complex situation and the idea of giving into

797
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:45,440
Speaker 1: any of Putin's demands or desires here. It is terrible.

798
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:48,840
Speaker 1: It feels terrible, it doesn't feel right, it doesn't feel just.

799
00:40:49,320 --> 00:40:52,000
Speaker 1: I get that instinct, and I get that perspective one

800
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 1: hundred percent. All I'm asking is that you also allow

801
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,719
Speaker 1: space for people to have a different view of the

802
00:40:58,760 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 1: best way to approach this conflict, and not accuse them

803
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:04,239
Speaker 1: of being in bed with this bad actor or this

804
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:08,359
Speaker 1: bad actor, or being Kremlin stooges, or being friends with

805
00:41:08,400 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 1: Marjorie Taylor Green or whatever. Allow people to have a

806
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:15,839
Speaker 1: dissenting view, and then guess what, guys, those who are

807
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 1: such big defenders of democracy allegedly, why don't you let

808
00:41:18,640 --> 00:41:21,279
Speaker 1: the voters hear out that folsome debate and see what

809
00:41:21,320 --> 00:41:23,879
Speaker 1: the American people think about this, Because I do think

810
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 1: Spurling is one hundred percent correct here. The vehemence of

811
00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 1: the reaction against such a totally tepid, reasonable couched a

812
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 1: million different phrases in language letter. The reaction to that

813
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,640
Speaker 1: is incredibly telling of how fragile their position really is.

814
00:41:40,760 --> 00:41:44,280
Speaker 1: Boy agree, And meanwhile, the situation in Ukraine is getting

815
00:41:44,480 --> 00:41:46,919
Speaker 1: heated and is getting very worrisome. So let's go ahead

816
00:41:46,920 --> 00:41:48,760
Speaker 1: and put this up there on the screen. We talked

817
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:52,279
Speaker 1: previously about the calls between the Russian Defense minister and

818
00:41:52,520 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 1: also our defense ministers many in NATO countries. Well, that

819
00:41:56,880 --> 00:42:00,759
Speaker 1: has continued at the conversational level, even more worrying some

820
00:42:00,960 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 1: between the chiefs of Staff of the US arm of

821
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 1: the US Joint Chiefs General Mark Milly and his Russian counterpart,

822
00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:10,880
Speaker 1: as well as the UK and as well as France.

823
00:42:11,120 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 1: The Russians are not dropping this so called dirty bomb language.

824
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 1: They are claiming consistently that it is on the verge

825
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:20,400
Speaker 1: and they are going to use it as a pretext

826
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:23,560
Speaker 1: for escalation. The US, after put out a statement let's

827
00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 1: put this up there, says that it sees no indication

828
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 1: that Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons, but says

829
00:42:29,160 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 1: that dirty bomb claims are a pretext for escalation in Ukraine.

830
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,759
Speaker 1: This morning, Crystal, things continue to move in a very

831
00:42:35,840 --> 00:42:39,080
Speaker 1: very worry same direction. So the Ministry of Foreign Affairs

832
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:43,800
Speaker 1: of Russia actually just put out a statement where Lavrov,

833
00:42:43,880 --> 00:42:47,160
Speaker 1: their own foreign minister, has come out and said that

834
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 1: he believes that there will be a dirty bomb warning.

835
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:52,440
Speaker 1: Let me go ahead and read it to you. He

836
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 1: says that dirty bomb warnings are continuing in Ukraine, and

837
00:42:57,520 --> 00:43:02,680
Speaker 1: he says that will have some pretext for response. Now,

838
00:43:02,840 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: why does that matter when the Russian Ministry of Foreign

839
00:43:05,719 --> 00:43:09,279
Speaker 1: Affairs and the Russian Minister to the United Nations are

840
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:13,320
Speaker 1: all putting tweets out in a concerted propaganda campaign saying, oh,

841
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:15,480
Speaker 1: Russia's are Ukraine is about to use a dirty bomb?

842
00:43:15,640 --> 00:43:18,000
Speaker 1: All of that at the same time, By the way,

843
00:43:18,320 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 1: the US warning about no potential nuclear threat on the

844
00:43:21,760 --> 00:43:25,120
Speaker 1: Russian side. That does not currently stand, Max said on

845
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:30,799
Speaker 1: who is the Financial Times correspondent in Moscow? Moscow hearer

846
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 1: put out a statement actually showing that a US official

847
00:43:34,560 --> 00:43:39,640
Speaker 1: said on background to reporters that there were some worrying signs. Yeah,

848
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:41,919
Speaker 1: so you have. This has pulled from a New York

849
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 1: Times article. It's kind of buried in there, sort of

850
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 1: like classic bury the lead. But one senior US official

851
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:52,840
Speaker 1: said there were new troubling developments involving Russia's nuclear arsenal.

852
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: The official asked for anonymity and declined to provide any

853
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:59,680
Speaker 1: details given the sensitivity of the issue. Now, I should say,

854
00:43:59,719 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 1: the same article quotes other officials who are saying, no,

855
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:05,920
Speaker 1: we don't see any movement, We don't see any change.

856
00:44:06,560 --> 00:44:08,600
Speaker 1: As you know, we continue to be concerned, and especially

857
00:44:08,640 --> 00:44:11,040
Speaker 1: with the dirty bomb rhetoric. We don't actually see anything

858
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 1: shifting here, but there was at least one senior US

859
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:16,239
Speaker 1: official that was telling the New York Times this for

860
00:44:16,360 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: whatever reason or whatever they're saying, we have no idea.

861
00:44:20,040 --> 00:44:22,759
Speaker 1: And you know, we should also say, like, remember the

862
00:44:22,920 --> 00:44:27,359
Speaker 1: very beginning of the invasion, there were all kinds of

863
00:44:27,760 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: there was all kinds of rhetoric coming from the Russians

864
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:31,920
Speaker 1: about like, oh, the Ukrainians are going to do this,

865
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:33,440
Speaker 1: and the Ukrainians were going to do that, and the

866
00:44:33,719 --> 00:44:35,600
Speaker 1: whole idea then too was like, oh, this is a

867
00:44:35,640 --> 00:44:37,200
Speaker 1: false flag and they're going to say that it's the

868
00:44:37,280 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 1: Ukrainians even though they're the real ones they're doing and

869
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: that actually never that never really happened. So we should

870
00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 1: say there is a history here too of Russia using

871
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 1: this sort of like you know, rhetorical whatever they think

872
00:44:49,920 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 1: they're doing here, and then not it not leading to

873
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 1: some sort of false flag action from them. But obviously

874
00:44:56,960 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: that is the concern at this point. Yeah, I mean,

875
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:01,080
Speaker 1: I think we should also so say that this was

876
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:04,280
Speaker 1: a pretext for Look, nobody will ever know what happened

877
00:45:04,320 --> 00:45:07,640
Speaker 1: in Syria. What we do know is that the Russians

878
00:45:07,680 --> 00:45:11,360
Speaker 1: claimed that Assad opponents had used some sort of chemical weapons,

879
00:45:11,400 --> 00:45:13,600
Speaker 1: and the same general who was in charge right here

880
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: of Ukraine, who was in charge of the Syria campaign,

881
00:45:16,520 --> 00:45:19,480
Speaker 1: used it as a pretext in order to drop cluster bombs,

882
00:45:19,560 --> 00:45:22,239
Speaker 1: vacuum bombs, all of that on civilians and massacred like

883
00:45:22,239 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty thousand people in the Battle of Aleppo.

884
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 1: And further so, this is not outside of the Russian playbook.

885
00:45:28,440 --> 00:45:30,719
Speaker 1: What some people are saying is that they're worried about

886
00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:33,879
Speaker 1: Russian nuclear escalation. I mean, I'm worried just as much

887
00:45:33,920 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 1: also about conventional A lot of people can die in

888
00:45:36,040 --> 00:45:37,960
Speaker 1: conventional war. They have a hell of a lot of

889
00:45:38,040 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 1: munitions if they want to, and they can launch a

890
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 1: full fledged attack. They've got all these conscripts. I mean,

891
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:45,600
Speaker 1: we'll see if they're even useful on the battlefield. But

892
00:45:45,640 --> 00:45:48,319
Speaker 1: bodies or bodies, we have no idea Cursan. You know,

893
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:50,560
Speaker 1: they keep saying it's going to fall. Hasn't fallen yet.

894
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 1: We don't know what exactly that looks like. Belarus has

895
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,759
Speaker 1: a troubling sign. They have a variety of options that

896
00:45:55,800 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 1: they can reach into if they want, and the fighting

897
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: season really only has three weeks left in terms of

898
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 1: the ground and before snow and muddy conditions strike the region.

899
00:46:06,280 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 1: So we'll see. Right now is a very very tense time.

900
00:46:08,840 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: I think it is probably the best time in the

901
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:12,479
Speaker 1: world to have a debate, and it's also the time

902
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:15,040
Speaker 1: whenever we are lacking it, we're not allowed to do that.

903
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 1: Let's put this next one up there. Also from Ukraine's

904
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:21,719
Speaker 1: own commander of forces on the ground in that CBS

905
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 1: News interview that we showed and talked to you a

906
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:26,600
Speaker 1: little bit about yesterday, he said, quote, the world should

907
00:46:26,600 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 1: be worried about a Putin nuclear threat, not from US,

908
00:46:29,800 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 1: from the Ukrainians. Now, of course they say if so,

909
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 1: then the US should come into the war. All of that.

910
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:36,880
Speaker 1: So maybe they have an incentive in order to continue

911
00:46:36,920 --> 00:46:39,879
Speaker 1: pumping these up because they effectively just want the US

912
00:46:39,880 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 1: to fight the war for them. But listen, I mean

913
00:46:42,600 --> 00:46:46,520
Speaker 1: troubling rhetoric all around, and we are forced to take

914
00:46:46,520 --> 00:46:49,120
Speaker 1: it seriously, even if we would like to see a

915
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:55,880
Speaker 1: different outcome. Indeed, there was an interesting moment yesterday with

916
00:46:55,920 --> 00:46:59,680
Speaker 1: a lot of speculation in Washington when the DOJ Merrick

917
00:46:59,719 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 1: Garl and others at the Justice Department called a press

918
00:47:02,080 --> 00:47:06,279
Speaker 1: conference about an urgent national security matter and ended up

919
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:10,439
Speaker 1: actually being about an indictment of some Chinese spies here

920
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:13,440
Speaker 1: in Washington and almost a comical case which shows some

921
00:47:13,520 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: of the tech wars that are happening at the governmental

922
00:47:16,160 --> 00:47:19,520
Speaker 1: level right now. Let's take a listen. Over the past week,

923
00:47:19,760 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 1: the Justice Department has taken several actions to disrupt criminal

924
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:27,200
Speaker 1: activity by individuals working on behalf of the government of

925
00:47:27,280 --> 00:47:30,840
Speaker 1: the People's Republic of China. As always, the defendants in

926
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:34,000
Speaker 1: these cases are presumed innocent until proven guilty in a

927
00:47:34,040 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 1: court of law. Earlier today, in the Eastern District of

928
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 1: New York, a complaint was unsealed charging two PRC intelligence

929
00:47:41,880 --> 00:47:46,880
Speaker 1: officers with attempting to obstruct, influence, and impede a criminal

930
00:47:46,880 --> 00:47:52,280
Speaker 1: prosecution of a PRC based telecommunications company. The complaint alleges

931
00:47:52,320 --> 00:47:56,160
Speaker 1: that in twenty nineteen, the defendants directed an employee at

932
00:47:56,160 --> 00:48:01,200
Speaker 1: a US government law enforcement agency to steal confidential information

933
00:48:01,640 --> 00:48:05,960
Speaker 1: about the United States criminal prosecution of the company. The

934
00:48:06,080 --> 00:48:09,839
Speaker 1: defendants believed that they had recruited the US employee as

935
00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 1: an asset, but in fact the individual they recruited was

936
00:48:13,719 --> 00:48:17,240
Speaker 1: actually a double agent working on behalf of the FBI

937
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: amusing turn of events there. I think the case really

938
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:24,719
Speaker 1: was meant to just embarrass the Chinese intelligence services for

939
00:48:24,800 --> 00:48:28,680
Speaker 1: being so embarrassing by trying to recruit somebody and paying

940
00:48:28,719 --> 00:48:32,720
Speaker 1: them off there being embarrassed. They really thought, they really

941
00:48:32,760 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 1: thought that they had it all figured out. Oh, we're

942
00:48:34,719 --> 00:48:36,440
Speaker 1: just going to pay off this guy and we'll get

943
00:48:36,480 --> 00:48:38,160
Speaker 1: our thing. And of course the entire thing was like

944
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: an FBI op the entire time. I mean, it does

945
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:44,040
Speaker 1: underscore a convenient talking point, which is the company Huawei,

946
00:48:44,080 --> 00:48:46,839
Speaker 1: which was under investigation. The Chinese government keeps saying, well,

947
00:48:46,840 --> 00:48:49,080
Speaker 1: we have nothing to do with the it's completely separate,

948
00:48:49,280 --> 00:48:51,319
Speaker 1: we have no control over Huawei. Well, then why are

949
00:48:51,320 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 1: you using your spies to try and defend them in

950
00:48:53,640 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 1: the US court. That's interesting, right. It also highlights, actually

951
00:48:58,280 --> 00:49:01,600
Speaker 1: some of the troubling connections that Huawei has here in Washington.

952
00:49:02,040 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: Ken Vogel over the New York Times did a great

953
00:49:04,000 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 1: job put this up there on the screen. He shows

954
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:09,680
Speaker 1: just how many US lobbyists are on the take for Huawei,

955
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: which you know, technically a foreign company but in reality

956
00:49:12,800 --> 00:49:16,120
Speaker 1: is a complete foreign government. The podestas you guys will

957
00:49:16,120 --> 00:49:20,000
Speaker 1: remember Squire, Patent Bogs, Imperium Global. These are these are

958
00:49:20,000 --> 00:49:24,400
Speaker 1: big players in DC, Rosewood Consulting. These aren't like fringe players.

959
00:49:24,440 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 1: These are some of the big dogs. I was gonna say,

960
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:29,319
Speaker 1: these are some of the top democratic lobbyists in all

961
00:49:29,400 --> 00:49:33,480
Speaker 1: of DC. Also, Chrystal, our old company, The Hill, actually

962
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:35,920
Speaker 1: used to have Huawei ads which used to tell me

963
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,200
Speaker 1: significantly whenever we were over there. So nice to be independent,

964
00:49:39,239 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 1: isn't it. The point is is that Huawei is genuinely

965
00:49:43,000 --> 00:49:45,440
Speaker 1: just an arm of the Chinese intelligence services. I mean,

966
00:49:45,520 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 1: I guess that's fine if we're all just open to

967
00:49:47,760 --> 00:49:50,440
Speaker 1: telling the truth. However, should you allow them access to

968
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:52,960
Speaker 1: your critical infrastructure like five G I mean that seems

969
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 1: pretty insane. Definitely not something they would ever allow you

970
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,640
Speaker 1: over there. And yet it's the fact that it's even

971
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:01,440
Speaker 1: up for debate here, I think completely crazy. Let's go

972
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:04,080
Speaker 1: and put the next one that's up there on the screen. Really.

973
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,760
Speaker 1: What it shows you, though, is that China right now

974
00:50:06,880 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 1: their markets are taking a massive hit from two ends.

975
00:50:10,400 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: Number one is actually their biggest stock losses since two

976
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:17,520
Speaker 1: thousand and eight, because foreigners had to sell a record

977
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 1: of two point five billion dollars in mainland shares. What

978
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:26,040
Speaker 1: that is is troubling sentiment from investors in Washington, in London,

979
00:50:26,080 --> 00:50:28,880
Speaker 1: and in Singapore who are worried that the inward looking

980
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:32,799
Speaker 1: Sheishiping administration after the People's Congress will make it much

981
00:50:32,880 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 1: more difficult for foreigners to do business in China beyond

982
00:50:35,600 --> 00:50:38,880
Speaker 1: how difficult it is right now. And two is look

983
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,200
Speaker 1: got to give Biden credit where it's due some of

984
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:45,439
Speaker 1: his latest moves on the Chinese semiconductor industry. So it's

985
00:50:45,480 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 1: complicated because it's not the victory that some have hailed.

986
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:50,759
Speaker 1: It is good that, you know, US companies and all

987
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,880
Speaker 1: that have to pull out of the Chinese semiconductor industry,

988
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 1: but there are still many American citizens who are still

989
00:50:56,360 --> 00:51:00,760
Speaker 1: working for major companies like ASL, ASML and other semi

990
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:03,680
Speaker 1: conductor companies that have been stealing US technology and are

991
00:51:03,960 --> 00:51:07,360
Speaker 1: effectively trying to supplant our defense industry and more. The

992
00:51:07,440 --> 00:51:10,879
Speaker 1: point being, though, that the Biden administration's moves, the fact

993
00:51:10,880 --> 00:51:13,160
Speaker 1: that they're willing to call out Wildwei like this, their

994
00:51:13,320 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 1: executive action on semiconductors and others on top of Chinese

995
00:51:17,640 --> 00:51:21,000
Speaker 1: kind of inward looking, really want on their part to

996
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:24,239
Speaker 1: consolidate control and have no competing centers of government make

997
00:51:24,320 --> 00:51:27,239
Speaker 1: it a bad day for the Chinese markets. But in

998
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:29,919
Speaker 1: some ways, the CCPLS doesn't really care what they care about,

999
00:51:30,200 --> 00:51:32,680
Speaker 1: so they can care less about the ecounomy. Yeah, I mean, yeah,

1000
00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 1: that's something that's very different from here OHO totally. They

1001
00:51:35,960 --> 00:51:38,600
Speaker 1: have other goals and priorities than just like the stock

1002
00:51:38,640 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 1: market and some of the numbers here China's riches is

1003
00:51:41,400 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 1: from Blueberg lose twelve point seven billion dollars in a

1004
00:51:45,640 --> 00:51:51,839
Speaker 1: day following G's reshuffling and his re anointment. You know,

1005
00:51:52,280 --> 00:51:55,479
Speaker 1: the richest tycoons lost twelve point seven billion markets sell

1006
00:51:55,520 --> 00:51:59,439
Speaker 1: off that followed G's tightening group on the government. One

1007
00:51:59,440 --> 00:52:02,719
Speaker 1: of the things, like just specifically that they're pointing to

1008
00:52:03,360 --> 00:52:05,440
Speaker 1: is that they're worried, you know, there's going to be

1009
00:52:05,480 --> 00:52:09,319
Speaker 1: even more COVID zero lockdowns and crackdowns. Is obviously bad

1010
00:52:09,360 --> 00:52:12,120
Speaker 1: for the economy, but you know, overall, as you were

1011
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:17,200
Speaker 1: pointing to this him really consolidating power with his closest

1012
00:52:17,239 --> 00:52:22,000
Speaker 1: allies and rooting out any sort of even remotely dissenting voices,

1013
00:52:22,280 --> 00:52:24,360
Speaker 1: they're worried about what that's going to mean for ultimately

1014
00:52:24,400 --> 00:52:26,080
Speaker 1: foreign investments. So a lot of people are just saying,

1015
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: guess what we're out. I mean, it's not a bad situation.

1016
00:52:28,760 --> 00:52:30,879
Speaker 1: I support it one hundred percent. I guess if Wall

1017
00:52:30,920 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 1: Street wants to lead the way, they could be, they

1018
00:52:33,160 --> 00:52:35,279
Speaker 1: could be our guest. I just think it's absurd on

1019
00:52:35,320 --> 00:52:37,440
Speaker 1: several levels. And actually there was some excitement on my

1020
00:52:37,560 --> 00:52:40,080
Speaker 1: part and in some circles that I run in, there

1021
00:52:40,080 --> 00:52:42,799
Speaker 1: were some rumors going around actually that this was going

1022
00:52:42,840 --> 00:52:46,239
Speaker 1: to be the Biden administration banning TikTok. So let's go

1023
00:52:46,239 --> 00:52:48,000
Speaker 1: to the part two here and put this up there

1024
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,759
Speaker 1: on the screen. This was a really landmark report that

1025
00:52:50,840 --> 00:52:54,200
Speaker 1: dropped a couple of days ago from Forbes magazine. And

1026
00:52:54,320 --> 00:52:56,919
Speaker 1: what they say is that TikTok parent company by Dance

1027
00:52:57,000 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 1: plan to use TikTok to monitor the physical location of

1028
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 1: specific American citizens. And I think that why this is

1029
00:53:04,960 --> 00:53:08,520
Speaker 1: so important is that, look, you can, you know, everybody

1030
00:53:08,520 --> 00:53:11,399
Speaker 1: has ridiculed people saying that we should be worried about

1031
00:53:11,440 --> 00:53:14,279
Speaker 1: the Chinese government have access to data, like who's the

1032
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:18,080
Speaker 1: who cares? Why does it matter? Well, specifically in this report,

1033
00:53:18,360 --> 00:53:21,880
Speaker 1: what they say is that internal materials showed that the

1034
00:53:21,920 --> 00:53:26,160
Speaker 1: TikTok CEO and others have been using data from the

1035
00:53:26,239 --> 00:53:29,680
Speaker 1: app to keep track of the specific location of American

1036
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:35,560
Speaker 1: citizens for non advertising purposes, right, as in for ads, right,

1037
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:38,800
Speaker 1: which is what they're I mean, listen, Google only allowed

1038
00:53:38,800 --> 00:53:40,640
Speaker 1: to surveil us if you're going to try to turn

1039
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:45,920
Speaker 1: a profit off of us. Has a government entity? No, no, no,

1040
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:48,000
Speaker 1: that's where we draw the line. You got to try

1041
00:53:48,000 --> 00:53:49,920
Speaker 1: to turn a profit off of That's the only way

1042
00:53:49,920 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 1: it's allowed. Like, listen, Facebook, Google, like they have everything

1043
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:54,240
Speaker 1: about us, but at least they're just trying to make money.

1044
00:53:54,360 --> 00:53:57,439
Speaker 1: Like this is all just about I mean, straight should

1045
00:53:59,640 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 1: and more. Yeah. I don't even disagree on that. I mean,

1046
00:54:01,520 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 1: the surveillance capitalism stuff is incredibly nefaarious. Yeah. What it

1047
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,080
Speaker 1: does show us is that long standing security experts have

1048
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 1: always warned they're like, the TikTok app is significantly more

1049
00:54:12,280 --> 00:54:14,600
Speaker 1: malicious than many others in terms of the permissions that

1050
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 1: it has on your phone, even more so actually than

1051
00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:20,239
Speaker 1: Facebook and others, And they've been warning about some of

1052
00:54:20,239 --> 00:54:23,319
Speaker 1: the loopholes within it. Location data obviously is something that

1053
00:54:23,360 --> 00:54:25,879
Speaker 1: almost every app has, and it really just comes down

1054
00:54:25,960 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 1: to like whether you whether you trust some of the

1055
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 1: safeguards in place, and I don't trust them on the

1056
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:34,879
Speaker 1: US companies, at least in this country. You ostensibly need

1057
00:54:34,920 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 1: to get a warrant and technically the company can fight

1058
00:54:38,680 --> 00:54:41,080
Speaker 1: you in court, as we saw with Apple, that does

1059
00:54:41,080 --> 00:54:44,400
Speaker 1: not exist in China. The bike Dance CEO has literally

1060
00:54:44,440 --> 00:54:46,719
Speaker 1: had to pull apps, you know byke Dance used to

1061
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 1: have a Reddit clone, which is like a news thing.

1062
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,880
Speaker 1: In twenty sixteen, the current CEO of the company, jiang

1063
00:54:51,920 --> 00:54:54,160
Speaker 1: At Jiming I think is his name, he had to

1064
00:54:54,920 --> 00:54:58,319
Speaker 1: issue an apology saying that he apologized because there was

1065
00:54:58,480 --> 00:55:00,760
Speaker 1: a story went viral on his app which was embarrassing

1066
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:03,440
Speaker 1: to the CCP. They destroyed the app overnight and he

1067
00:55:03,480 --> 00:55:04,880
Speaker 1: had to put out a letter saying that he was

1068
00:55:04,880 --> 00:55:09,200
Speaker 1: apologizing for not abiding by CCP socialist principles, and Shishingping thought,

1069
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 1: I mean that's a literal quote from him. Well, and

1070
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:14,399
Speaker 1: this is part of our like Western arrogance in a way,

1071
00:55:14,400 --> 00:55:17,360
Speaker 1: where we've just projected our model onto them and just

1072
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 1: assumed it works just like it does here in the company.

1073
00:55:19,719 --> 00:55:22,239
Speaker 1: Of course, the companies are totally totally separate, and why

1074
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:24,440
Speaker 1: would you think that if we even here that's you know,

1075
00:55:24,480 --> 00:55:28,480
Speaker 1: not always the case. But it's you know, a very

1076
00:55:28,520 --> 00:55:32,480
Speaker 1: different dynamic here when you're talking about the Chinese government

1077
00:55:32,560 --> 00:55:34,919
Speaker 1: and you're talking about these large companies and the way

1078
00:55:34,920 --> 00:55:37,239
Speaker 1: that ultimately they have the final say and they have

1079
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 1: access to everything they want to have access to. I

1080
00:55:39,600 --> 00:55:41,400
Speaker 1: mean there were other incidents too, I think with like

1081
00:55:41,480 --> 00:55:43,200
Speaker 1: a ride sharing app, remember where they were like, we

1082
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:45,080
Speaker 1: want your data and they're like, okay, I mean we

1083
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:47,640
Speaker 1: have no choice here you go after pledging that of

1084
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:49,799
Speaker 1: course they would keep it ultimately private. I mean the

1085
00:55:49,840 --> 00:55:52,200
Speaker 1: other thing to say here is like there's a massive

1086
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:56,960
Speaker 1: role for Congress to pass legislation that would you know,

1087
00:55:57,080 --> 00:55:59,280
Speaker 1: make it so that apps are not allowed to collect

1088
00:55:59,360 --> 00:56:02,279
Speaker 1: data that they don't directly need to do the thing

1089
00:56:02,360 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 1: that the app is about. You know, if you had

1090
00:56:04,600 --> 00:56:06,880
Speaker 1: that kind of legislation in because right now it's basically

1091
00:56:06,960 --> 00:56:09,560
Speaker 1: the wild West. If you had that kind of legislation in,

1092
00:56:09,640 --> 00:56:12,840
Speaker 1: you could use it to crack down on TikTok and

1093
00:56:12,880 --> 00:56:15,840
Speaker 1: whatever data they're gathering that they don't actually need and

1094
00:56:15,920 --> 00:56:18,120
Speaker 1: able to in order to be able to provide the service.

1095
00:56:18,120 --> 00:56:20,600
Speaker 1: Would it be like total silver bullet. No, But at

1096
00:56:20,680 --> 00:56:22,839
Speaker 1: least then you would have some tool that you could use,

1097
00:56:23,120 --> 00:56:26,279
Speaker 1: and consumers would have some kind of protection not just

1098
00:56:26,320 --> 00:56:29,040
Speaker 1: with TikTok, but across all of their digital life. Yeah,

1099
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 1: and look, I think that the Biden administration is a

1100
00:56:31,600 --> 00:56:33,520
Speaker 1: rebind right because on the one hand, they don't want

1101
00:56:33,520 --> 00:56:35,160
Speaker 1: to piss off young people, and I get it. I'm

1102
00:56:35,200 --> 00:56:37,320
Speaker 1: sure many of the people who watch the show use TikTok.

1103
00:56:37,400 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 1: On the other hand, what I think they need to

1104
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,560
Speaker 1: pursue is a for sale of the company. I think

1105
00:56:41,600 --> 00:56:44,200
Speaker 1: that's the fairest thing, which is to say, look, I mean,

1106
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:46,040
Speaker 1: I'm not a fan of TikTok, like in terms of

1107
00:56:46,040 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 1: what is doing to society, but whatever, It's a free country.

1108
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:50,759
Speaker 1: People can do what they want. I would just say

1109
00:56:50,760 --> 00:56:53,759
Speaker 1: we need to safeguard citizens and say this company as

1110
00:56:53,760 --> 00:56:55,480
Speaker 1: this is what the Trump administration tried to do. He

1111
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:57,160
Speaker 1: is such an idiot. It wasn't actually able to pull

1112
00:56:57,200 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 1: it off. Which is you're like, look, TikTok can exist,

1113
00:57:00,120 --> 00:57:01,800
Speaker 1: you just have to sell it to a US entity

1114
00:57:02,000 --> 00:57:04,280
Speaker 1: and keep all the data on US soil. The current

1115
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,400
Speaker 1: view that the Biden administration is pursuing I reject completely.

1116
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:10,640
Speaker 1: They're trying to broker some deal where TikTok only stores

1117
00:57:10,680 --> 00:57:14,520
Speaker 1: its data here in in oracle servers and a quote

1118
00:57:14,600 --> 00:57:17,880
Speaker 1: independent board will review it from time to time, but

1119
00:57:18,000 --> 00:57:22,160
Speaker 1: Byte Dance remains ownership Soludicrius. You cannot have that whenever

1120
00:57:22,200 --> 00:57:24,480
Speaker 1: Byte Dance's CEO and all of them are complete. I'm

1121
00:57:24,480 --> 00:57:26,560
Speaker 1: not even gonna say Toty's because don't. I don't even

1122
00:57:26,600 --> 00:57:28,960
Speaker 1: think that they necessarily want to be in this situation.

1123
00:57:29,240 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 1: But if you want to be a billionaire in China,

1124
00:57:31,360 --> 00:57:33,600
Speaker 1: you don't want to happen what jack Ma happened. You

1125
00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:35,280
Speaker 1: don't want to be locked in your basement and do

1126
00:57:35,360 --> 00:57:38,400
Speaker 1: a forced apology video. Got it? You got to toe

1127
00:57:38,400 --> 00:57:41,000
Speaker 1: the line. And even if you don't, you got family,

1128
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:44,080
Speaker 1: you got kids, you got uncles. They'll do anything they

1129
00:57:44,120 --> 00:57:46,560
Speaker 1: can to twist your arm. So they're in a tough

1130
00:57:46,560 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 1: spot and we should just put ourselves in the easiest position.

1131
00:57:49,360 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 1: I think a forced sale makes the absolute most amount

1132
00:57:52,040 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 1: of sense, and if they can pull it off, I

1133
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:55,680
Speaker 1: would support it one hundred percent. But I mean pursue

1134
00:57:55,720 --> 00:57:58,320
Speaker 1: the other option absolutely not. Yeah, that makes sense. I

1135
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,600
Speaker 1: do actually like TikTok. I think is fun. I think

1136
00:58:01,640 --> 00:58:04,959
Speaker 1: it's funny. I think it's very creative, like I am, Yeah,

1137
00:58:05,000 --> 00:58:07,320
Speaker 1: it is. It's like all things, all things, I mean

1138
00:58:07,320 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 1: a lots of it is stupid when I look at

1139
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 1: time is really but it's I'm like, this cannot be good. Look,

1140
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:14,560
Speaker 1: I mean, look, given us everything, Yeah, it is everything.

1141
00:58:14,560 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 1: I mean it is very like. It's very addictive, there's

1142
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 1: no doubt about it. But that's the whole goal of

1143
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:22,160
Speaker 1: every single freaking thing they put on this. So that's

1144
00:58:22,160 --> 00:58:25,760
Speaker 1: a whole separate conversation. Okay, speaking of the youth, we

1145
00:58:25,840 --> 00:58:29,480
Speaker 1: got some new troubling numbers about exactly what happened to

1146
00:58:29,720 --> 00:58:32,800
Speaker 1: our kids and to our students during the pandemic. Let's

1147
00:58:32,840 --> 00:58:34,640
Speaker 1: go and put this up on the screen from the

1148
00:58:34,680 --> 00:58:39,920
Speaker 1: Wall Street Journal. Matths scores dropped in every state during

1149
00:58:39,960 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 1: the pandemic. Report card shows the largest Education Department analysis

1150
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:48,840
Speaker 1: of test score since COVID nineteen pandemic began, reveals sweeping declines.

1151
00:58:49,560 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 1: I want to read you a little bit of this

1152
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:55,080
Speaker 1: so you can have some more of the details. So

1153
00:58:55,480 --> 00:58:59,160
Speaker 1: they revealed a nationwide plunge in reading as well that

1154
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:03,320
Speaker 1: wiped out three decades of games. So this was not

1155
00:59:03,400 --> 00:59:06,760
Speaker 1: just in math, this was reading and math. Low performing

1156
00:59:06,800 --> 00:59:10,200
Speaker 1: fourth grade students saw larger declines in both math and

1157
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:14,360
Speaker 1: reading scores compared with high performing ones. So if you know,

1158
00:59:14,520 --> 00:59:16,760
Speaker 1: the kid was already doing well, they didn't suffer too

1159
00:59:16,800 --> 00:59:19,440
Speaker 1: much of a hit. The kids that most needed the

1160
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:21,800
Speaker 1: help and you know, were the furthest behind, well guess

1161
00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,080
Speaker 1: what they got even further behind. They also found that

1162
00:59:25,120 --> 00:59:27,920
Speaker 1: black and Hispanic students in the fourth grade saw larger

1163
00:59:27,960 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 1: score drops in math than white students. I have no

1164
00:59:31,440 --> 00:59:33,640
Speaker 1: doubt there is a massive class to mention to that

1165
00:59:34,040 --> 00:59:36,000
Speaker 1: the kids who were the most vulnerable, who are the

1166
00:59:36,040 --> 00:59:39,840
Speaker 1: most precarious situations, they are the ones that suffered the most.

1167
00:59:39,880 --> 00:59:41,880
Speaker 1: I was looking at some of these numbers. Interesting to

1168
00:59:41,920 --> 00:59:44,960
Speaker 1: note locally that d C, Virginia and Maryland were among

1169
00:59:45,000 --> 00:59:47,880
Speaker 1: the worst in terms of the test score drops. And

1170
00:59:48,120 --> 00:59:50,439
Speaker 1: of course the test results fell appear in which school

1171
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:53,000
Speaker 1: districts wrestled with how quickly to resume in person instruction

1172
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:57,360
Speaker 1: during the pandemic. Scores fell across jurisdictions with different policies

1173
00:59:57,400 --> 00:59:59,960
Speaker 1: for schooling in the pandemic. So this is part of

1174
01:00:00,120 --> 01:00:03,600
Speaker 1: what makes this really complicated. LA which had you know,

1175
01:00:03,640 --> 01:00:06,640
Speaker 1: schools shut down for some significant period of time, was

1176
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 1: actually the only place city or state to show a

1177
01:00:08,880 --> 01:00:12,000
Speaker 1: significant increase in eighth grade reading. On the other hand,

1178
01:00:12,000 --> 01:00:15,360
Speaker 1: you had some states that had fallen more on the

1179
01:00:15,440 --> 01:00:18,800
Speaker 1: let's open up more quickly that suffered significant decline. So

1180
01:00:18,840 --> 01:00:22,760
Speaker 1: they point to Arizona, which returned to in person learning

1181
01:00:22,800 --> 01:00:26,240
Speaker 1: relatively quickly, they still saw declines along with those that

1182
01:00:26,280 --> 01:00:30,080
Speaker 1: stayed remote longer, such as California. So it is a

1183
01:00:30,120 --> 01:00:33,760
Speaker 1: complicated picture because you know, it'd be really clear cut

1184
01:00:33,800 --> 01:00:35,840
Speaker 1: if you could just look and see a clear correlation

1185
01:00:35,920 --> 01:00:39,200
Speaker 1: between like Okay, Florida reopen quicker and their scores did better,

1186
01:00:39,240 --> 01:00:42,760
Speaker 1: Arizona renopen quicker, their scores did better. But it really

1187
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:47,720
Speaker 1: was a nationwide phenomenon and hard to pinpoint exactly what

1188
01:00:47,840 --> 01:00:50,880
Speaker 1: the factors were that led to this decline. Some of

1189
01:00:50,920 --> 01:00:54,760
Speaker 1: the things that they point to as theories, which is

1190
01:00:54,800 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 1: all anyone has at this point, is you know, the

1191
01:00:57,040 --> 01:01:01,480
Speaker 1: psychological stress of the pandemic that even if schools reopened

1192
01:01:01,520 --> 01:01:04,560
Speaker 1: more quickly, you know you probably were you were having

1193
01:01:04,600 --> 01:01:07,000
Speaker 1: sick days. I experienced this with my own kids. Once

1194
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:09,439
Speaker 1: the schools were reopened, then you know, every other week

1195
01:01:09,480 --> 01:01:12,000
Speaker 1: someone was having a close contact with a COVID case

1196
01:01:12,000 --> 01:01:14,560
Speaker 1: and having to go back home and do remote schooling again.

1197
01:01:14,680 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 1: So even when the schools were technically reopen, there still

1198
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:21,640
Speaker 1: was a lot of disruption to kids being in class,

1199
01:01:21,680 --> 01:01:23,840
Speaker 1: and then of course all the you know, stress around

1200
01:01:23,840 --> 01:01:25,880
Speaker 1: in the pandemic and all of that certainly must have

1201
01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:29,440
Speaker 1: had an impact. So that's the picture, and it's really

1202
01:01:29,480 --> 01:01:31,520
Speaker 1: not pretty. No, it's horrific. I mean, I think what

1203
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:33,479
Speaker 1: it really does show you is that you just can't

1204
01:01:33,480 --> 01:01:35,200
Speaker 1: put a lot of these things back in the box.

1205
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 1: Maybe some of it was inevitable, but even with school

1206
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:40,560
Speaker 1: openings and all of that, at a certain point, I

1207
01:01:40,560 --> 01:01:42,560
Speaker 1: remember you telling me about some of the COVID procedures

1208
01:01:42,560 --> 01:01:44,280
Speaker 1: at your kids school. It's like, I don't know how

1209
01:01:44,280 --> 01:01:45,760
Speaker 1: you're supposed to learn in that. I just I don't

1210
01:01:45,760 --> 01:01:47,959
Speaker 1: know how it's possible. Like every two weeks someone's getting

1211
01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:49,760
Speaker 1: pulled out of school, and at a certain point it's

1212
01:01:49,760 --> 01:01:52,280
Speaker 1: probably inevitable, like even if you opened up or not,

1213
01:01:53,080 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 1: you know, I mean personally, like we knew a lot

1214
01:01:55,360 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 1: of the data not that long ago, but just by

1215
01:01:58,560 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 1: unplugging from the economy, we saw this in social reason,

1216
01:02:02,120 --> 01:02:05,080
Speaker 1: like the way that people socially behave has just irrevocably

1217
01:02:05,160 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 1: changed the way that people are moving around the world.

1218
01:02:07,920 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 1: And we shouldn't be surprised then that by irrevocably pulling

1219
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:12,920
Speaker 1: kids out of school for a couple of months, a

1220
01:02:12,920 --> 01:02:14,400
Speaker 1: couple of months to us is not that much a

1221
01:02:14,400 --> 01:02:16,240
Speaker 1: couple of months to a child's life is like, you know,

1222
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:18,840
Speaker 1: if you think about percentage wise, there's a lot, especially

1223
01:02:18,840 --> 01:02:21,480
Speaker 1: in terms of their learning cycle. The fact that every

1224
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 1: single one, pretty much every what stayed across the country

1225
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:27,160
Speaker 1: is trending down. It also highlights a class dynamic, right,

1226
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:30,200
Speaker 1: which is that a lot of working parents just didn't

1227
01:02:30,200 --> 01:02:31,720
Speaker 1: have the time to sit with their kids and make

1228
01:02:31,720 --> 01:02:34,480
Speaker 1: sure they were getting through. We've long seen that richer

1229
01:02:34,560 --> 01:02:37,040
Speaker 1: parents have the luxury and the ability in order to

1230
01:02:37,040 --> 01:02:39,320
Speaker 1: spend more time with their kids learning and to help

1231
01:02:39,360 --> 01:02:42,200
Speaker 1: them with homework or tutors all of that. Now the

1232
01:02:42,240 --> 01:02:45,120
Speaker 1: gap is only going to get even worse. Yeah, And

1233
01:02:45,160 --> 01:02:46,840
Speaker 1: you can see that right in the class data, which

1234
01:02:46,880 --> 01:02:50,360
Speaker 1: is that the richer households basically find the poor households,

1235
01:02:50,480 --> 01:02:53,160
Speaker 1: of which public education is supposed to be the real backstop.

1236
01:02:53,320 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 1: It's supposed to give you something in order to be

1237
01:02:55,760 --> 01:02:58,600
Speaker 1: able to lift you up in equal opportunity. It's a

1238
01:02:58,680 --> 01:03:01,360
Speaker 1: huge failure. I don't really know fix it, to be honest, DC.

1239
01:03:01,720 --> 01:03:04,080
Speaker 1: I always think about this. DC has the highest dollar

1240
01:03:04,160 --> 01:03:06,360
Speaker 1: per capita spent on children and the worst test scores

1241
01:03:06,360 --> 01:03:08,640
Speaker 1: in the entire country. I'm like, I don't know, it's

1242
01:03:08,680 --> 01:03:10,280
Speaker 1: not more money. I don't know what it is. I

1243
01:03:10,280 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 1: couldn't tell you what the corginal answer is. There was

1244
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:16,640
Speaker 1: a huge you know, there's huge disparities too in internet access.

1245
01:03:16,760 --> 01:03:18,720
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, some things you're dear to my heart

1246
01:03:18,720 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 1: living in a place that does not have broadband internet.

1247
01:03:21,080 --> 01:03:24,320
Speaker 1: I mean, my kids have all kinds of advantages, very lucky,

1248
01:03:24,360 --> 01:03:26,640
Speaker 1: but they did struggle with the internet. It just doesn't

1249
01:03:26,680 --> 01:03:29,680
Speaker 1: really work that well at my house. And you couple

1250
01:03:29,720 --> 01:03:32,080
Speaker 1: on top of that, if you're a working family you

1251
01:03:32,120 --> 01:03:34,720
Speaker 1: don't have good internet access, Like you're having to rearrange

1252
01:03:34,720 --> 01:03:36,800
Speaker 1: your life to try to make this work with your kids.

1253
01:03:36,880 --> 01:03:39,680
Speaker 1: It was a disaster. And I've said this a number

1254
01:03:39,680 --> 01:03:42,000
Speaker 1: of times, but it's really important. I think we learned

1255
01:03:42,080 --> 01:03:44,000
Speaker 1: the lessons from this. And again I want to point out,

1256
01:03:44,040 --> 01:03:45,800
Speaker 1: like this was across the board. This wasn't just in

1257
01:03:45,840 --> 01:03:48,560
Speaker 1: the places that stayed closed the longest. So it is

1258
01:03:48,600 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 1: a complex picture, there's no doubt about it. But you know,

1259
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 1: in the early days when we didn't know how deadly

1260
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:56,800
Speaker 1: the pandemic would be to kids, and there was a

1261
01:03:56,840 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 1: ton of fear and just again we just didn't know right.

1262
01:04:00,280 --> 01:04:04,000
Speaker 1: It was also new to me. It was entirely understandable

1263
01:04:04,080 --> 01:04:08,920
Speaker 1: and justifiable that spring. I totally I supported it. I

1264
01:04:09,080 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 1: pulled my kids out even the day before the school

1265
01:04:11,640 --> 01:04:14,640
Speaker 1: district announced, because there was so little information about what

1266
01:04:14,680 --> 01:04:16,200
Speaker 1: the risk were for them, what the risk were for

1267
01:04:16,240 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 1: their family members, you know, elderly grandparent, all those sorts

1268
01:04:19,000 --> 01:04:22,040
Speaker 1: of things. Okay, that was the spring. Then when you

1269
01:04:22,080 --> 01:04:26,320
Speaker 1: got around to the fall and schools were still not reopening,

1270
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:29,280
Speaker 1: even though at that point we had enough data to

1271
01:04:29,400 --> 01:04:31,280
Speaker 1: know a lot more about the risk, we had the

1272
01:04:31,320 --> 01:04:34,440
Speaker 1: beginnings of data to know about some of the learning

1273
01:04:34,520 --> 01:04:38,640
Speaker 1: loss and the challenges from this approach. That's when, to me,

1274
01:04:39,080 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 1: the big, massive mistakes were made. And I just hope

1275
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:46,120
Speaker 1: for these kids that they're able to regain what they

1276
01:04:46,200 --> 01:04:48,800
Speaker 1: lost during this time period. And it's not clear to

1277
01:04:48,880 --> 01:04:52,200
Speaker 1: me at all that that is going to be a possibility.

1278
01:04:52,240 --> 01:04:56,439
Speaker 1: I mean, this period may impact their trajectory for their

1279
01:04:56,800 --> 01:05:00,720
Speaker 1: entire life, and that's just a really sad reality that

1280
01:05:00,760 --> 01:05:02,640
Speaker 1: we're facing right now. I don't think there's a question.

1281
01:05:02,800 --> 01:05:05,280
Speaker 1: I don't know if it can be undone. I think

1282
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:09,400
Speaker 1: there's major structural problems in public education today and the

1283
01:05:09,440 --> 01:05:11,920
Speaker 1: system is not really designed for any of that. This

1284
01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:13,960
Speaker 1: would be a great thing for our leaders to be

1285
01:05:14,000 --> 01:05:17,080
Speaker 1: obsessed with. Imagine if they spent all day thinking and

1286
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:19,080
Speaker 1: talking about this. So we shudn't even agree on what

1287
01:05:19,120 --> 01:05:21,040
Speaker 1: the point of an education is, which is actually a

1288
01:05:21,040 --> 01:05:24,040
Speaker 1: deep question. By the way, It's not a simple, straightforward thing.

1289
01:05:24,200 --> 01:05:27,040
Speaker 1: But yeah, there's you know, there's a lot we could

1290
01:05:27,040 --> 01:05:29,400
Speaker 1: be doing better. It's really sad. Okay, let's move on.

1291
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:32,560
Speaker 1: This is a hilarious moment from MSNBC. This is a

1292
01:05:32,560 --> 01:05:36,560
Speaker 1: true world's colliding. I enjoy it for two reasons. Is

1293
01:05:36,600 --> 01:05:40,560
Speaker 1: that crossover between these two groups is almost very rarely.

1294
01:05:40,720 --> 01:05:42,880
Speaker 1: It needs to happen more often. Honestly, it really is

1295
01:05:42,960 --> 01:05:46,080
Speaker 1: great television. Yeah, not only is a great television in

1296
01:05:46,080 --> 01:05:48,600
Speaker 1: a way you can learn something from each other if

1297
01:05:48,680 --> 01:05:51,640
Speaker 1: you care to listen, which unfortunately neither group here really was.

1298
01:05:51,680 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 1: So MSNBC held a focus group with some Pittsburgh Trump

1299
01:05:55,440 --> 01:05:59,960
Speaker 1: supporters about Doug Mastriano and January sixth, and the takeaway

1300
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:03,000
Speaker 1: from this is that neither side was at all prepared

1301
01:06:03,240 --> 01:06:06,320
Speaker 1: for a discussion whatsoever, and it went totally off the rails.

1302
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:09,520
Speaker 1: Let's take a lesson. Mastrano was at the insurrection and

1303
01:06:09,560 --> 01:06:13,520
Speaker 1: he was photographed breaching one of the restricted areas. Is

1304
01:06:13,520 --> 01:06:16,880
Speaker 1: that okay? Which area? Because I saw video where Capital

1305
01:06:17,000 --> 01:06:21,240
Speaker 1: officers weren't taking away barriers and unlocking, so that's I mean,

1306
01:06:21,800 --> 01:06:24,000
Speaker 1: they opened the gates. It shouldn't be disqualifying for an

1307
01:06:24,000 --> 01:06:27,760
Speaker 1: elected officials in January sixth. He didn't strike anybody, he

1308
01:06:27,760 --> 01:06:29,800
Speaker 1: didn't hurt anybody, And the only one that died was

1309
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:33,360
Speaker 1: a protester. There not a Capital pill on female veteran.

1310
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:35,000
Speaker 1: That's the only one that died. That's the only one

1311
01:06:35,040 --> 01:06:38,520
Speaker 1: who died. The police officer did die. No, that's not

1312
01:06:38,880 --> 01:06:41,320
Speaker 1: that's not on site because he shouldn't have been a

1313
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:44,000
Speaker 1: police officer. So what do you make though overall of

1314
01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:46,080
Speaker 1: January sixth, I mean, it was watching that footage, it

1315
01:06:46,080 --> 01:06:48,440
Speaker 1: was pretty disturbing. I mean there were people throwing excrement

1316
01:06:48,480 --> 01:06:50,480
Speaker 1: at the walls and it was the Capital. It was

1317
01:06:50,520 --> 01:06:53,000
Speaker 1: a lot like Antiquas, actually a lot, except on a

1318
01:06:53,080 --> 01:06:55,000
Speaker 1: much smaller scale. It looked the same as the Black

1319
01:06:55,040 --> 01:06:58,320
Speaker 1: Lives Matter rights. That's what I saw the similarities on

1320
01:06:58,520 --> 01:07:01,680
Speaker 1: Burns connection. But it was okay just because just because

1321
01:07:01,720 --> 01:07:05,200
Speaker 1: one side thing you disagree with infiltrated good for it's

1322
01:07:05,240 --> 01:07:08,040
Speaker 1: good for the other. Anybody. Don't alarmed anybody. Anybody who

1323
01:07:08,080 --> 01:07:10,520
Speaker 1: caused property destruction that needs to be dealt with. But

1324
01:07:10,640 --> 01:07:13,240
Speaker 1: you're there making your voice heard at the Niple's house.

1325
01:07:13,280 --> 01:07:17,200
Speaker 1: No less, that's again, it's a fundamental constitutional right of

1326
01:07:17,240 --> 01:07:19,760
Speaker 1: an American citizen. And people should not be being held

1327
01:07:19,760 --> 01:07:24,000
Speaker 1: political prisoner, uh because of it for misdemeanors. That's East Germany.

1328
01:07:24,080 --> 01:07:28,520
Speaker 1: That's the tactics. Yeah, that's what's scary. It was an actual, fiery,

1329
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:31,760
Speaker 1: but mostly peaceful protest and the other ones that were

1330
01:07:31,800 --> 01:07:36,440
Speaker 1: the was a protest legitimate in your eyes. I feel

1331
01:07:36,440 --> 01:07:39,160
Speaker 1: like is using it as their rich dog fire. That's

1332
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:42,720
Speaker 1: exactly what they're using it as. Do you think that

1333
01:07:42,800 --> 01:07:46,800
Speaker 1: President Trump could have quailed the violence that day? Not

1334
01:07:46,880 --> 01:07:50,520
Speaker 1: him person It started while he was still speaking. I

1335
01:07:50,560 --> 01:07:52,720
Speaker 1: was actually there. I was there to see what I

1336
01:07:52,720 --> 01:07:54,160
Speaker 1: thought was going to be the last time I ever

1337
01:07:54,200 --> 01:07:55,960
Speaker 1: saw Trump a little time. So did he tell everybody

1338
01:07:56,000 --> 01:07:58,400
Speaker 1: to go and start writing? No? I didn't think no,

1339
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:02,320
Speaker 1: And actually I stayed for the whole speech, like a

1340
01:08:02,360 --> 01:08:04,920
Speaker 1: ton of people did. And then we all headed to

1341
01:08:04,960 --> 01:08:06,840
Speaker 1: the Capitol because he said, let's go to the capitol

1342
01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:10,640
Speaker 1: and peacefully, like we heard. And we get to the

1343
01:08:10,680 --> 01:08:12,479
Speaker 1: Capitol and we're like, what the hell's going on because

1344
01:08:12,520 --> 01:08:15,360
Speaker 1: it had already happened. I'm pretty sure I saw democratic

1345
01:08:15,400 --> 01:08:22,320
Speaker 1: operatives instigating people to the part I like, I mean, yeah,

1346
01:08:22,360 --> 01:08:23,920
Speaker 1: there is a lot to say. I mean the part

1347
01:08:24,160 --> 01:08:26,840
Speaker 1: the like cognitive dissonance. Part that I like the most

1348
01:08:26,840 --> 01:08:29,280
Speaker 1: about it is how they're both like it was peaceful,

1349
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:31,680
Speaker 1: and I actually was there and I walked over with

1350
01:08:31,760 --> 01:08:34,320
Speaker 1: other Trump supporters and then at the same time they're like,

1351
01:08:34,400 --> 01:08:38,439
Speaker 1: I think it was Antifa. Yeah. What I enjoy about

1352
01:08:38,479 --> 01:08:41,200
Speaker 1: it is that there are certain facts that neither side

1353
01:08:41,200 --> 01:08:43,320
Speaker 1: has ever really heard. So I remember, I I forget

1354
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:45,519
Speaker 1: which guy I was interviewing. He was like a police

1355
01:08:45,560 --> 01:08:47,200
Speaker 1: officer was beaten to death. And I was like, I

1356
01:08:47,240 --> 01:08:49,599
Speaker 1: was like, hey, man, I'm not justifying January sixth, this

1357
01:08:49,640 --> 01:08:50,960
Speaker 1: is just not true. I was like, a guy died

1358
01:08:51,000 --> 01:08:53,320
Speaker 1: from a heart attack. I'm not saying it wasn't precipitated

1359
01:08:53,320 --> 01:08:55,400
Speaker 1: by a riot, but he wasn't being to death. He's like,

1360
01:08:55,479 --> 01:08:57,160
Speaker 1: this is a lie. And I was like, oh, you

1361
01:08:57,200 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 1: don't even know the facts, Like you're an author and

1362
01:08:59,520 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 1: you you know, on the same thing, they'll they'll say

1363
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:05,360
Speaker 1: like the on one hand, it was completely peaceful. On

1364
01:09:05,400 --> 01:09:08,280
Speaker 1: the other hand, they were democratic offering with democratic? Are

1365
01:09:08,320 --> 01:09:10,439
Speaker 1: they democratic? I don't know where they're working for the FBI.

1366
01:09:10,520 --> 01:09:12,920
Speaker 1: That's actually a whole other question. And really what it

1367
01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:15,800
Speaker 1: is is that the FBI reports that you and I

1368
01:09:15,880 --> 01:09:19,360
Speaker 1: have delved into here. There is no acceptance or even

1369
01:09:19,439 --> 01:09:22,479
Speaker 1: really frankly awareness in a lot of the mainstream press.

1370
01:09:22,640 --> 01:09:24,800
Speaker 1: And that's actually part of why I think reaching a

1371
01:09:24,800 --> 01:09:27,320
Speaker 1: consensus on this is so difficult, which is that both

1372
01:09:27,360 --> 01:09:29,720
Speaker 1: sides has an array of facts which the other is

1373
01:09:29,840 --> 01:09:32,320
Speaker 1: generally not aware of and makes it so that your

1374
01:09:32,360 --> 01:09:34,760
Speaker 1: own like, for example, what they're talking about people being

1375
01:09:34,800 --> 01:09:37,680
Speaker 1: held in prison, that actually is a real issue in

1376
01:09:37,720 --> 01:09:40,759
Speaker 1: the DC jail, you know, people being held without bail

1377
01:09:40,800 --> 01:09:42,639
Speaker 1: and all that, And that's what uses the political prisoner

1378
01:09:42,680 --> 01:09:44,719
Speaker 1: rhetoric and all that. I don't even think many mainstream

1379
01:09:44,760 --> 01:09:46,960
Speaker 1: reporters like even aware. And if you are aware and

1380
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:48,639
Speaker 1: you support it, and I think you should just say that.

1381
01:09:48,720 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 1: But the fact is is that it's new info coming

1382
01:09:51,439 --> 01:09:54,080
Speaker 1: at each other at the time, and it just highlights

1383
01:09:54,160 --> 01:09:57,479
Speaker 1: like how far past each other most people are. And

1384
01:09:57,840 --> 01:09:59,479
Speaker 1: in general, though I support this, I thought it was

1385
01:09:59,520 --> 01:10:01,599
Speaker 1: good either they aired the entire secment. Yeah, I think

1386
01:10:01,640 --> 01:10:04,599
Speaker 1: they should do more, even though it has a feel

1387
01:10:04,640 --> 01:10:07,240
Speaker 1: of like remember right after twenty sixteen that we're all like,

1388
01:10:07,360 --> 01:10:10,639
Speaker 1: let's go on safari in the industrial Midwest where we've

1389
01:10:10,680 --> 01:10:12,720
Speaker 1: never set foot and really don't understand. There was sort

1390
01:10:12,760 --> 01:10:15,720
Speaker 1: of like a caricatureish view that was created. But I

1391
01:10:15,760 --> 01:10:19,559
Speaker 1: still think that's better than nothing. And yeah, I mean,

1392
01:10:19,640 --> 01:10:22,479
Speaker 1: to me, the biggest takeaway from this, like, obviously they've

1393
01:10:22,479 --> 01:10:25,400
Speaker 1: been filled full of all kinds of propaganda, very selective

1394
01:10:25,479 --> 01:10:27,559
Speaker 1: telling of the facts, things that are in conger that

1395
01:10:27,600 --> 01:10:30,040
Speaker 1: don't even make sense together. All of that being said,

1396
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:33,040
Speaker 1: it would be a lot better if we didn't have

1397
01:10:33,200 --> 01:10:38,919
Speaker 1: completely siloed information systems. And in a way, the direction

1398
01:10:39,040 --> 01:10:42,240
Speaker 1: that media is going in, there is an even larger

1399
01:10:42,320 --> 01:10:45,120
Speaker 1: risk that we silo even further. Well that's I mean,

1400
01:10:45,920 --> 01:10:48,559
Speaker 1: that's ams well yeah, yeah, I mean one hundred percent.

1401
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:51,719
Speaker 1: But what I'm talking about is even in the new

1402
01:10:52,040 --> 01:10:58,000
Speaker 1: independent media landscape, there's a lot of opportunity for siloing

1403
01:10:58,240 --> 01:11:02,640
Speaker 1: and increasingly actually niche factions. So it's not just like

1404
01:11:02,760 --> 01:11:05,000
Speaker 1: the democratic view of the world and Republican view of

1405
01:11:05,000 --> 01:11:09,040
Speaker 1: the world, but there's like these increasingly siloed viewpoints that

1406
01:11:09,120 --> 01:11:12,759
Speaker 1: are totally shut off from other parts of the news

1407
01:11:12,760 --> 01:11:17,080
Speaker 1: and information ecosystem. So it is like, I mean, this

1408
01:11:17,160 --> 01:11:19,400
Speaker 1: is a challenge that is going to have to continue

1409
01:11:19,439 --> 01:11:21,640
Speaker 1: to be confronted and dealt with them as part of

1410
01:11:21,640 --> 01:11:23,800
Speaker 1: what we try to do here and try to, you know,

1411
01:11:24,280 --> 01:11:27,120
Speaker 1: keep each other in check and try to meld together

1412
01:11:27,160 --> 01:11:30,200
Speaker 1: our different information ecosystems and all of those sorts of things.

1413
01:11:30,240 --> 01:11:33,559
Speaker 1: But unfortunately, I think these like even as cable news,

1414
01:11:33,600 --> 01:11:36,320
Speaker 1: which has been such a destructive and nefarious and divisive

1415
01:11:36,360 --> 01:11:39,920
Speaker 1: actor in American political life across the board, even as

1416
01:11:39,960 --> 01:11:42,800
Speaker 1: we watch its decline in demise, there are no guarantees

1417
01:11:42,800 --> 01:11:44,720
Speaker 1: that what comes after is going to ultimately serve the

1418
01:11:44,720 --> 01:11:47,479
Speaker 1: public better. No guarantee. But I just think it's their fault.

1419
01:11:47,560 --> 01:11:49,840
Speaker 1: I mean, in general, like I bet you, I mean,

1420
01:11:49,840 --> 01:11:51,880
Speaker 1: I always think about that profile like one of the

1421
01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:54,400
Speaker 1: guys you had a heart attack on January sixth, and

1422
01:11:54,920 --> 01:11:57,200
Speaker 1: I'm just laughing because it was, like they described it

1423
01:11:57,200 --> 01:11:58,800
Speaker 1: as like one of the most exciting days of his life,

1424
01:11:58,880 --> 01:12:01,599
Speaker 1: but which I just think is for anybody really, And

1425
01:12:01,840 --> 01:12:06,040
Speaker 1: he was an Alabama guy voted for Obama like two

1426
01:12:06,080 --> 01:12:08,800
Speaker 1: thousand and eights from pro public if anybody's interested in

1427
01:12:08,840 --> 01:12:12,240
Speaker 1: reading it, like basically lost a union job and just

1428
01:12:12,280 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 1: lost his mind after became unemployed. We've met se Ill

1429
01:12:16,160 --> 01:12:18,920
Speaker 1: saying christ and I recently had a run in with

1430
01:12:19,120 --> 01:12:23,400
Speaker 1: a full blown qwanon supporter, and you know, it's aggravating

1431
01:12:23,439 --> 01:12:25,519
Speaker 1: and it's really annoying to be spouted at a bunch

1432
01:12:25,600 --> 01:12:28,439
Speaker 1: of conspiracy. But it also came out that this person

1433
01:12:28,520 --> 01:12:30,320
Speaker 1: had lost their house in two thousand and eight and

1434
01:12:30,360 --> 01:12:32,880
Speaker 1: had been completely screwed by the system. And so I'm

1435
01:12:32,920 --> 01:12:35,200
Speaker 1: not explaining like why I think the views are good,

1436
01:12:35,200 --> 01:12:37,280
Speaker 1: but like I'm like, okay, well, I mean I could

1437
01:12:37,280 --> 01:12:40,840
Speaker 1: somewhat understand like the social conditions through which something like

1438
01:12:40,880 --> 01:12:43,639
Speaker 1: this can arise. You can choose to take that view

1439
01:12:43,640 --> 01:12:45,840
Speaker 1: of it, or you can take the other view of it.

1440
01:12:45,880 --> 01:12:51,040
Speaker 1: I mean, look, ultimately, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, they're looking

1441
01:12:51,080 --> 01:12:53,600
Speaker 1: out for their bottom line. The thing that sells for

1442
01:12:53,680 --> 01:13:00,400
Speaker 1: them is feeding a selective view, selective facts, partisan view

1443
01:13:00,400 --> 01:13:02,799
Speaker 1: of the world. You know that does where the answer

1444
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:06,360
Speaker 1: to every segment on Fox News is therefore Democrats are bad,

1445
01:13:06,600 --> 01:13:09,479
Speaker 1: and they answered every segment on MSNBC, including this one,

1446
01:13:09,479 --> 01:13:13,000
Speaker 1: I'm sure, is therefore Republicans are bad. They don't do

1447
01:13:13,120 --> 01:13:16,200
Speaker 1: that because you know, they're good people or bad people

1448
01:13:16,280 --> 01:13:18,960
Speaker 1: or evil people or wonderful people or whatever. They do

1449
01:13:19,080 --> 01:13:22,040
Speaker 1: it because that's what clicks, that's what sells, that's what

1450
01:13:22,080 --> 01:13:25,840
Speaker 1: their audience has become accustomed to ultimately wanting. And so

1451
01:13:26,680 --> 01:13:28,800
Speaker 1: you have to dismantle that system. But the point I'm

1452
01:13:28,800 --> 01:13:30,639
Speaker 1: getting at is you have to be thoughtful about what

1453
01:13:30,680 --> 01:13:34,120
Speaker 1: replaces it to, you know, deal with with those issues

1454
01:13:34,160 --> 01:13:37,160
Speaker 1: and that incentive structure that ultimately leads to you know,

1455
01:13:37,800 --> 01:13:41,320
Speaker 1: us basically living in like two different realities, two different countries,

1456
01:13:41,760 --> 01:13:44,000
Speaker 1: two different views of the world at least, two different

1457
01:13:44,080 --> 01:13:51,280
Speaker 1: views of even how events are ultimately unfolding. Absolutely agree, Crystal,

1458
01:13:51,320 --> 01:13:53,000
Speaker 1: what are you taking a look at? Very bad news

1459
01:13:53,040 --> 01:13:55,280
Speaker 1: for Democrats this morning, and this one really is kind

1460
01:13:55,280 --> 01:13:58,960
Speaker 1: of a stunner. So cook political report has shifted Representative

1461
01:13:59,080 --> 01:14:03,000
Speaker 1: Sean Patrick Mulla race from lean Democrat to toss up.

1462
01:14:03,560 --> 01:14:05,640
Speaker 1: That is a big deal for a couple of reasons. So,

1463
01:14:05,720 --> 01:14:07,920
Speaker 1: first of all, this is a New York district that

1464
01:14:07,960 --> 01:14:11,280
Speaker 1: Biden won by ten points. It should be a slam

1465
01:14:11,360 --> 01:14:14,240
Speaker 1: dungk for Democrats, and if it's not, let's be honest,

1466
01:14:14,320 --> 01:14:17,400
Speaker 1: they are facing imminent doom all over the map. Second,

1467
01:14:17,800 --> 01:14:21,120
Speaker 1: Sean Patrick Maloney just happens to be chair of the

1468
01:14:21,160 --> 01:14:25,439
Speaker 1: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In other words, he is literally

1469
01:14:25,479 --> 01:14:28,559
Speaker 1: the guy responsible for Democrats trying to hold onto their

1470
01:14:28,600 --> 01:14:33,080
Speaker 1: House majority, and now he himself might lose. He would

1471
01:14:33,080 --> 01:14:35,599
Speaker 1: be the first Democratic campaign chair to lose his seat

1472
01:14:35,640 --> 01:14:39,280
Speaker 1: in forty years, an indictment, if there ever was, one

1473
01:14:39,360 --> 01:14:42,719
Speaker 1: of the thoroughly bankrupt strategy and ideology that has brought

1474
01:14:42,720 --> 01:14:45,639
Speaker 1: Democrats to this pathetic point. There's so much to say

1475
01:14:45,720 --> 01:14:48,519
Speaker 1: about this particular situation. So first of all, let's recall

1476
01:14:48,600 --> 01:14:51,040
Speaker 1: the backstory. New York has a new congressional district map

1477
01:14:51,160 --> 01:14:54,479
Speaker 1: caused all sorts of chaos putting Democratic incumbents against other

1478
01:14:54,520 --> 01:14:58,639
Speaker 1: Democratic incumbents. Some of that chaos, though, was directly caused

1479
01:14:58,640 --> 01:15:02,120
Speaker 1: by Sean Patrick Maloney himself, who immediately once the map

1480
01:15:02,160 --> 01:15:04,639
Speaker 1: was announced, with no heads up, said he would run

1481
01:15:04,680 --> 01:15:08,519
Speaker 1: in a newly created district that mostly lay outside of

1482
01:15:08,560 --> 01:15:11,439
Speaker 1: his own district boundaries. Now, he made this choice because

1483
01:15:11,479 --> 01:15:14,360
Speaker 1: the new district is a slightly safer seat than the

1484
01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:18,519
Speaker 1: district that encompasses the bulk of where he currently represents. Now,

1485
01:15:18,600 --> 01:15:20,479
Speaker 1: all of this was already a bad look. You're the

1486
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:22,599
Speaker 1: dude who's supposed to be telling Democrats how to win,

1487
01:15:22,720 --> 01:15:25,000
Speaker 1: but you don't even have confidence in your own ability

1488
01:15:25,000 --> 01:15:27,559
Speaker 1: to win in a Biden plus five district. But what

1489
01:15:27,680 --> 01:15:30,160
Speaker 1: made it worse is that there was no other incumbent

1490
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:32,600
Speaker 1: to run in the old Maloney district, leaving in an

1491
01:15:32,640 --> 01:15:36,479
Speaker 1: open seat more difficult to hold. Meanwhile, there was another

1492
01:15:36,520 --> 01:15:39,280
Speaker 1: incumbent in the district that Maloney jumped into. That would

1493
01:15:39,280 --> 01:15:41,599
Speaker 1: be Mondair Jones. It was the whole thing. At the time,

1494
01:15:41,640 --> 01:15:44,120
Speaker 1: you can go back, we covered it. Jones went public

1495
01:15:44,200 --> 01:15:47,360
Speaker 1: trashing Maloney before eventually deciding to run in a different district,

1496
01:15:47,360 --> 01:15:50,000
Speaker 1: where he then lost in the primary. This all fed

1497
01:15:50,000 --> 01:15:52,040
Speaker 1: into yet another war between the left and the corporate

1498
01:15:52,040 --> 01:15:54,840
Speaker 1: wing of the Democratic Party, as a different Progressive jumped

1499
01:15:54,840 --> 01:15:57,200
Speaker 1: into the primary against Maloney. But at the end of

1500
01:15:57,240 --> 01:15:59,920
Speaker 1: the day, Maloney won. Seemed like it was all going

1501
01:16:00,120 --> 01:16:02,479
Speaker 1: in his way. Is the d TRIBC chair something he'd

1502
01:16:02,520 --> 01:16:05,080
Speaker 1: been angling for for years? He got the district he wanted,

1503
01:16:05,280 --> 01:16:08,400
Speaker 1: he dispatched with his left wing opposition should be smooth

1504
01:16:08,439 --> 01:16:12,640
Speaker 1: sailing from here right. Well, apparently not so much now. Ironically,

1505
01:16:12,640 --> 01:16:15,760
Speaker 1: according to Cook Political Report and their analysis, Maloney's move

1506
01:16:15,840 --> 01:16:18,800
Speaker 1: to bigfoot the progressives and grab this new district of

1507
01:16:18,840 --> 01:16:22,280
Speaker 1: his choice may have actually backfired. Although the new district

1508
01:16:22,320 --> 01:16:26,240
Speaker 1: is technically more democratic leaning, Maloney only represents like twenty

1509
01:16:26,240 --> 01:16:29,000
Speaker 1: five percent of it currently and so that severely limits

1510
01:16:29,000 --> 01:16:32,479
Speaker 1: the benefits of incumbency. What's more, cut out of the

1511
01:16:32,520 --> 01:16:35,640
Speaker 1: district are some key constituencies that Maloney had spent a

1512
01:16:35,680 --> 01:16:38,839
Speaker 1: lot of time courting and winning over. As they write, quote,

1513
01:16:39,439 --> 01:16:42,800
Speaker 1: Maloney thrived electorally in his old eighteenth CD in part

1514
01:16:42,840 --> 01:16:45,439
Speaker 1: because of the crossover vote he earned the block voting

1515
01:16:45,479 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 1: Hasidic community Cryos Joel, which almost entirely supported Donald Trump.

1516
01:16:50,280 --> 01:16:53,920
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty, Trump carried Orange County, which includes that locality,

1517
01:16:53,960 --> 01:16:56,719
Speaker 1: forty nine percent forty nine point three percent to forty

1518
01:16:56,800 --> 01:16:59,639
Speaker 1: nine point two percent, so just barely but helped by

1519
01:16:59,640 --> 01:17:02,759
Speaker 1: this blit voting. The same year, Maloney carried the county

1520
01:17:02,880 --> 01:17:05,679
Speaker 1: fifty five to forty three by pitching his ability to

1521
01:17:05,720 --> 01:17:09,000
Speaker 1: secure much needed infrastructure funding in that area. Now that

1522
01:17:09,040 --> 01:17:11,639
Speaker 1: particular area is no longer in his district, and Maloenney's

1523
01:17:11,640 --> 01:17:14,719
Speaker 1: opponent has cultivated a strong relationship with the Orthodox Jewish

1524
01:17:14,760 --> 01:17:18,120
Speaker 1: communities that are in the new district. Oops. But the

1525
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:20,519
Speaker 1: bigger problem has less to do with these specific districts

1526
01:17:20,520 --> 01:17:22,000
Speaker 1: in areas and a lot more to do with the

1527
01:17:22,000 --> 01:17:25,040
Speaker 1: increasing problems of the Democratic Party strategy led by fools

1528
01:17:25,200 --> 01:17:28,360
Speaker 1: like Sean Patrick Maloney. First of all, the Republican culture

1529
01:17:28,360 --> 01:17:30,759
Speaker 1: war issue of crime is starting to beat the Democratic

1530
01:17:30,800 --> 01:17:33,800
Speaker 1: culture war issue of abortion. Republicans reservice and old debate

1531
01:17:33,840 --> 01:17:36,280
Speaker 1: clip of Maloney saying he supports ending cash bail and

1532
01:17:36,320 --> 01:17:38,400
Speaker 1: it seems to be taking a real toll. According to

1533
01:17:38,520 --> 01:17:41,960
Speaker 1: Lawler's internal polling, that's the Republican that Maloney is up against.

1534
01:17:42,280 --> 01:17:45,080
Speaker 1: He has widened his lead from two points to six points.

1535
01:17:45,160 --> 01:17:47,320
Speaker 1: Now Maloney has not shared his own internal polling, but

1536
01:17:47,360 --> 01:17:50,760
Speaker 1: also acknowledges this is now a tight race. Meanwhile, in

1537
01:17:50,800 --> 01:17:53,760
Speaker 1: his instructions and Maloney's instructions to outside groups on how

1538
01:17:53,760 --> 01:17:56,880
Speaker 1: to attack the Republican Lawler, he is all in on

1539
01:17:56,920 --> 01:18:01,160
Speaker 1: the standard Lawler's too extreme rhetoric. There are the suggested

1540
01:18:01,240 --> 01:18:05,080
Speaker 1: attacks for any outside money writing to the rescue Lawler

1541
01:18:05,160 --> 01:18:07,040
Speaker 1: was a member of a political group that was deoubts

1542
01:18:07,120 --> 01:18:11,000
Speaker 1: for creating and disseminating an anti Semitic video. Lawler's political

1543
01:18:11,080 --> 01:18:15,280
Speaker 1: consulting form worked for a candidate with alleged ties to

1544
01:18:15,360 --> 01:18:18,559
Speaker 1: a dangerous right wing militia group. Lawler opposes abortion rights

1545
01:18:18,560 --> 01:18:21,320
Speaker 1: and supports allowing states to set their own policies, paving

1546
01:18:21,400 --> 01:18:23,760
Speaker 1: the way for abortion bands that do not have exceptions

1547
01:18:23,760 --> 01:18:27,800
Speaker 1: for cases of rape and incest. So Maloney here not

1548
01:18:27,920 --> 01:18:31,720
Speaker 1: hitting his opponent at all on economics, even though Republicans

1549
01:18:31,720 --> 01:18:34,720
Speaker 1: are planning, as I covered yesterday, a destinaling crisis in

1550
01:18:34,840 --> 01:18:38,200
Speaker 1: order to cut taxes for the rich and for corporations,

1551
01:18:38,320 --> 01:18:42,080
Speaker 1: potentially spiking inflation. Oh and they also have floated cutting

1552
01:18:42,080 --> 01:18:46,040
Speaker 1: social Security and Medicare. Oh. But instead he's focused on

1553
01:18:46,080 --> 01:18:49,280
Speaker 1: the fact that a political consulting firm Lawler hired works

1554
01:18:49,280 --> 01:18:52,759
Speaker 1: with someone who might have ties to something bad, fantastic attack.

1555
01:18:52,840 --> 01:18:54,439
Speaker 1: I'm sure that's really going to land, and I'm sure

1556
01:18:54,439 --> 01:18:56,840
Speaker 1: people really care more about that than whether Grandma is

1557
01:18:56,880 --> 01:18:59,400
Speaker 1: going to be eating cat food next year. So here's

1558
01:18:59,400 --> 01:19:01,920
Speaker 1: the way Maloney framed the election overall. In a recent

1559
01:19:01,960 --> 01:19:04,360
Speaker 1: Fox News op ed quote, the difference between the two

1560
01:19:04,360 --> 01:19:07,000
Speaker 1: parties could not be more clear. On January sixth, twenty

1561
01:19:07,040 --> 01:19:10,000
Speaker 1: twenty one, insurrectioniststorm the Capitol and beat police officers with

1562
01:19:10,040 --> 01:19:13,559
Speaker 1: American flags. House Democrats stepped over broken glass to certify

1563
01:19:13,640 --> 01:19:16,160
Speaker 1: the election, but one hundred and thirty nine House Republicans

1564
01:19:16,240 --> 01:19:18,320
Speaker 1: voted to throw on Americans votes and side with the

1565
01:19:18,320 --> 01:19:21,400
Speaker 1: insurrectionists who wanted to overthrow the election just because they

1566
01:19:21,439 --> 01:19:24,639
Speaker 1: didn't like the results. Every day since Democrats have rolled

1567
01:19:24,720 --> 01:19:28,160
Speaker 1: up their sleeves and passed impactful, popular legislation to help

1568
01:19:28,200 --> 01:19:32,080
Speaker 1: American families, Republicans kept sprinting down a path of extremism

1569
01:19:32,600 --> 01:19:35,720
Speaker 1: on ripping away our freedoms. He then goes on to

1570
01:19:35,800 --> 01:19:38,839
Speaker 1: detail the legislation that Democrats have passed under Joe Biden.

1571
01:19:39,200 --> 01:19:43,760
Speaker 1: Now keep in mind, Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg says that

1572
01:19:43,840 --> 01:19:47,759
Speaker 1: this is literally the worst possible messaging for Democrats. According

1573
01:19:47,800 --> 01:19:50,559
Speaker 1: to Greenberg, it lands as tone deaf to brag about

1574
01:19:50,560 --> 01:19:53,799
Speaker 1: your accomplishments without offering a concrete plan for the future

1575
01:19:53,960 --> 01:19:57,680
Speaker 1: as Americans continue to suffer real economic pain. Quote, Republicans

1576
01:19:57,680 --> 01:20:00,160
Speaker 1: are hitting us on crime and board and inflation. That

1577
01:20:00,200 --> 01:20:03,479
Speaker 1: has huge power, and we have the self satisfied message

1578
01:20:03,520 --> 01:20:05,960
Speaker 1: of how much we've accomplished, rather than being focused on

1579
01:20:06,040 --> 01:20:09,680
Speaker 1: what is happening to people. As I covered yesterday, Republicans,

1580
01:20:09,760 --> 01:20:12,200
Speaker 1: they have provided plenty of ammunition to hit them on

1581
01:20:12,240 --> 01:20:14,960
Speaker 1: their disastrous economic plans, and there's lots of data to

1582
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:18,920
Speaker 1: suggest that if Democrats offered even something simple like a

1583
01:20:18,960 --> 01:20:23,000
Speaker 1: new child tax credit, it could be really impactful. But instead,

1584
01:20:23,320 --> 01:20:26,879
Speaker 1: party elites like Maloney have decided to lean into scolding

1585
01:20:26,960 --> 01:20:31,240
Speaker 1: voters about democracy without actually listening to what those voters

1586
01:20:31,280 --> 01:20:35,040
Speaker 1: participating in our democracy actually care about, trying to assure

1587
01:20:35,080 --> 01:20:36,920
Speaker 1: them that the economy is actually all good because they

1588
01:20:37,000 --> 01:20:39,439
Speaker 1: fixed it, even as the day to day reality a

1589
01:20:39,479 --> 01:20:45,840
Speaker 1: struggle obviously remains. Ironically, if the supposedly democracy obsessed Democrats lose,

1590
01:20:46,200 --> 01:20:50,240
Speaker 1: it will be precisely because they ignored the democratic will

1591
01:20:50,400 --> 01:20:54,280
Speaker 1: of the people. Perfect encapsulation of their problems here, Sean

1592
01:20:54,320 --> 01:20:56,400
Speaker 1: Patrick Malone, and if you want to hear my reaction

1593
01:20:56,520 --> 01:21:00,000
Speaker 1: to Crystal's monologue, become a Premium subscriber today at Breaking Points?

1594
01:21:03,880 --> 01:21:05,720
Speaker 1: All right, Zager, what are you looking at? Well? Something

1595
01:21:05,760 --> 01:21:08,120
Speaker 1: I've long emphasized here at Breaking Points is the importance

1596
01:21:08,160 --> 01:21:10,320
Speaker 1: of the US birth rate, it's death rate, and the

1597
01:21:10,360 --> 01:21:13,519
Speaker 1: causes of death and life expectancy. The most basic job

1598
01:21:13,560 --> 01:21:16,479
Speaker 1: of a civilization is to replace itself. It's hardwired into

1599
01:21:16,479 --> 01:21:19,320
Speaker 1: our DNA. It's something of modernity has largely led people

1600
01:21:19,320 --> 01:21:21,599
Speaker 1: to stray away from for a variety of reasons. Over

1601
01:21:21,640 --> 01:21:23,519
Speaker 1: the last few years, the story has been the same.

1602
01:21:23,600 --> 01:21:26,360
Speaker 1: Americans are having fewer children, they're getting married less, and

1603
01:21:26,400 --> 01:21:29,240
Speaker 1: they are dying much earlier. The contradiction of our lifespan

1604
01:21:29,320 --> 01:21:31,880
Speaker 1: hit a major crisis in twenty twenty one, when deaths

1605
01:21:31,880 --> 01:21:34,519
Speaker 1: of despair combined with COVID dropped life expectancy at the

1606
01:21:34,560 --> 01:21:37,719
Speaker 1: most precipitous rate since the nineteen twenties. That's a trend

1607
01:21:37,800 --> 01:21:40,759
Speaker 1: you mostly see in third world countries, one that mirrors

1608
01:21:40,760 --> 01:21:43,439
Speaker 1: what began to happen in the former Soviet Union right

1609
01:21:43,439 --> 01:21:46,880
Speaker 1: before it's collapsed. It's bleak, but underneath is a fascinating,

1610
01:21:47,040 --> 01:21:50,040
Speaker 1: perhaps hopeful trend for all of us, a mini baby

1611
01:21:50,080 --> 01:21:53,360
Speaker 1: boom that nobody expected and tells us a lot about

1612
01:21:53,360 --> 01:21:56,760
Speaker 1: what types of pro natal policies actually might work in America.

1613
01:21:57,000 --> 01:21:58,960
Speaker 1: A new paper, which is published by the National Bureau

1614
01:21:59,000 --> 01:22:03,000
Speaker 1: of Economic Research finds an unexpected increase in US fertility

1615
01:22:03,080 --> 01:22:06,759
Speaker 1: rates during the pandemic fertility rates declined in twenty twenty

1616
01:22:06,880 --> 01:22:10,080
Speaker 1: and were expected to continue doing so, possibly for decades,

1617
01:22:10,160 --> 01:22:13,320
Speaker 1: but something very odd happened instead. In twenty twenty one,

1618
01:22:13,520 --> 01:22:17,200
Speaker 1: the trend completely reversed, and in fact increased for the

1619
01:22:17,240 --> 01:22:21,360
Speaker 1: first time since two thousand and seven, effectively reversing the

1620
01:22:21,400 --> 01:22:23,759
Speaker 1: carnage of the Great Recession for the very first time.

1621
01:22:24,120 --> 01:22:27,400
Speaker 1: How did something so remarkable occur that nobody planned for.

1622
01:22:27,760 --> 01:22:30,040
Speaker 1: To find the answer, let's take a step back how

1623
01:22:30,080 --> 01:22:32,880
Speaker 1: bad things are. From two thousand and seven to twenty twenty,

1624
01:22:33,000 --> 01:22:36,280
Speaker 1: the USTFR total fertility rate, which measures the average number

1625
01:22:36,320 --> 01:22:39,120
Speaker 1: of children expected over a woman's lifetime, declined from two

1626
01:22:39,200 --> 01:22:42,240
Speaker 1: point one to one point six. That's a disaster because

1627
01:22:42,280 --> 01:22:44,680
Speaker 1: two point one is the bare minimum of society must

1628
01:22:44,720 --> 01:22:47,600
Speaker 1: maintain in order to replace the number of living individuals.

1629
01:22:47,760 --> 01:22:50,680
Speaker 1: Otherwise your age pyramid reverses and soon you have too

1630
01:22:50,720 --> 01:22:52,920
Speaker 1: many old people relying on the young. Take it to

1631
01:22:52,960 --> 01:22:55,760
Speaker 1: its logical conclusion, you end up like Japan, something we

1632
01:22:55,880 --> 01:22:59,280
Speaker 1: desperately need to avoid. The pandemic in its early data

1633
01:22:59,520 --> 01:23:01,519
Speaker 1: seemed like it was going to be even further of

1634
01:23:01,520 --> 01:23:04,439
Speaker 1: a nightmare. The fertility rate dropped a further two percent,

1635
01:23:04,720 --> 01:23:08,120
Speaker 1: more than normal expected during lockdowns, but then things reversed

1636
01:23:08,240 --> 01:23:11,320
Speaker 1: nearly overnight in twenty twenty one, not only reverse, but

1637
01:23:11,400 --> 01:23:14,320
Speaker 1: actually increase over pre pandemic trend a total of six

1638
01:23:14,400 --> 01:23:16,880
Speaker 1: point two percent. That's six point two percent, not only

1639
01:23:17,040 --> 01:23:19,280
Speaker 1: the very first increase since seven, it was enough to

1640
01:23:19,320 --> 01:23:22,400
Speaker 1: reverse two years of trends in a single year, again

1641
01:23:22,680 --> 01:23:26,759
Speaker 1: unheard of in modern times. So who was having kids first?

1642
01:23:26,880 --> 01:23:30,040
Speaker 1: And most surprising is that the biggest baby bump happened

1643
01:23:30,040 --> 01:23:32,599
Speaker 1: amongst women who were under the age of twenty five.

1644
01:23:32,880 --> 01:23:35,639
Speaker 1: This is especially stunning because for years the trend lines

1645
01:23:35,680 --> 01:23:38,439
Speaker 1: have suggested that US families women desire to have children

1646
01:23:38,720 --> 01:23:42,080
Speaker 1: much later in life year over year. Furthermore, the big

1647
01:23:42,120 --> 01:23:45,600
Speaker 1: baby bump actually happened amongst another population, women between the

1648
01:23:45,640 --> 01:23:47,840
Speaker 1: age of thirty and thirty four. But when you dig

1649
01:23:47,920 --> 01:23:51,280
Speaker 1: into education data, it's even more interesting. Women between the

1650
01:23:51,320 --> 01:23:54,080
Speaker 1: age of twenty five and forty four with a college

1651
01:23:54,080 --> 01:23:57,280
Speaker 1: degree or more had the biggest bump of all three groups.

1652
01:23:57,560 --> 01:24:00,960
Speaker 1: So what lesson do we have here? Very profound ones

1653
01:24:00,960 --> 01:24:02,400
Speaker 1: that actually strike at the heart of a lot of

1654
01:24:02,439 --> 01:24:05,679
Speaker 1: debates around modern feminism and what actually good family policy

1655
01:24:05,720 --> 01:24:08,240
Speaker 1: looks like. For years, debates have raged in the West

1656
01:24:08,320 --> 01:24:11,240
Speaker 1: is how to boost TFR rates and ensure a population

1657
01:24:11,360 --> 01:24:15,639
Speaker 1: replaces itself. The internationalist response is simple, don't boost domestic kids,

1658
01:24:15,760 --> 01:24:17,920
Speaker 1: just let more immigrants in. On the furthest right of

1659
01:24:17,920 --> 01:24:20,720
Speaker 1: the spectrum is the opposite, let no immigrants in, throw

1660
01:24:20,760 --> 01:24:22,920
Speaker 1: as much cash at the population as possible to get

1661
01:24:22,920 --> 01:24:25,639
Speaker 1: them to have more kids. The former is the Germany model.

1662
01:24:25,720 --> 01:24:28,240
Speaker 1: The latter would be called the Hungarian model. As the

1663
01:24:28,240 --> 01:24:31,080
Speaker 1: Germans found out, it doesn't work because the populisce revolts

1664
01:24:31,080 --> 01:24:33,439
Speaker 1: across the continent, and as the Hungarians have found out,

1665
01:24:33,520 --> 01:24:36,280
Speaker 1: their policies have worked only to a limited extent, and

1666
01:24:36,320 --> 01:24:39,040
Speaker 1: not even close to the degree they've wanted to. Somewhere

1667
01:24:39,040 --> 01:24:41,080
Speaker 1: in the middle is where the US debate lies. A

1668
01:24:41,120 --> 01:24:44,080
Speaker 1: mix of immigration and family incentives, the left mostly wanting

1669
01:24:44,080 --> 01:24:47,599
Speaker 1: more immigration and specifically more childcare subsidies, the right wanting

1670
01:24:47,640 --> 01:24:51,360
Speaker 1: less immigration, and then various different mixes of physical conservatism.

1671
01:24:51,360 --> 01:24:54,639
Speaker 1: In idiocy, I have always favored a more hybrid approach,

1672
01:24:54,800 --> 01:24:56,920
Speaker 1: which I believe is born out in this data. Less

1673
01:24:57,000 --> 01:25:00,439
Speaker 1: unskilled immigration and flexible cash incentives to parents who can

1674
01:25:00,600 --> 01:25:03,240
Speaker 1: use them on childcare if they wish, or to stay

1675
01:25:03,280 --> 01:25:05,600
Speaker 1: at home if they want first and foremost is the

1676
01:25:05,600 --> 01:25:08,400
Speaker 1: reason why births dropped first place in twenty twenty. One

1677
01:25:08,400 --> 01:25:10,680
Speaker 1: of the undernoticed part of this study finds that the

1678
01:25:10,720 --> 01:25:13,760
Speaker 1: drop and fertility rate was entirely because of lack of

1679
01:25:13,800 --> 01:25:17,120
Speaker 1: immigration inflows to the US. In effect, the drop was

1680
01:25:17,160 --> 01:25:19,519
Speaker 1: not because Americans were having less kids. It was because

1681
01:25:19,520 --> 01:25:23,480
Speaker 1: we were letting letting basically nobody in during the pandemic,

1682
01:25:23,680 --> 01:25:26,840
Speaker 1: So actually the behavior of citizens really didn't change that much.

1683
01:25:27,040 --> 01:25:29,599
Speaker 1: Second is the fact that American women, when given more

1684
01:25:29,640 --> 01:25:33,040
Speaker 1: work flexibility via remote work, chose to have a lot

1685
01:25:33,080 --> 01:25:36,160
Speaker 1: more children, especially those who were college educated, and that

1686
01:25:36,200 --> 01:25:38,639
Speaker 1: proves a central critique that people who have really been

1687
01:25:38,720 --> 01:25:41,880
Speaker 1: only talking about childcare have long discarded. Many women don't

1688
01:25:41,920 --> 01:25:43,840
Speaker 1: want more childcare. They want to spend more time with

1689
01:25:43,840 --> 01:25:46,400
Speaker 1: their children at home if they are able and still work.

1690
01:25:46,680 --> 01:25:50,120
Speaker 1: Just until the pandemic technology was not normalized, those conditions

1691
01:25:50,160 --> 01:25:53,000
Speaker 1: really aligned. Third is the fact that younger women chose

1692
01:25:53,000 --> 01:25:55,720
Speaker 1: to start a family much earlier when not faced with

1693
01:25:55,800 --> 01:25:58,600
Speaker 1: the prospect of only having to go to work or

1694
01:25:58,640 --> 01:26:02,080
Speaker 1: do nothing else. Something deeply profound about seeing that data

1695
01:26:02,400 --> 01:26:05,160
Speaker 1: validating the fact that work is in fact a detriment

1696
01:26:05,200 --> 01:26:09,120
Speaker 1: to both family formation and civilization. The solution is not

1697
01:26:09,160 --> 01:26:11,600
Speaker 1: to quote, send women back to the kitchen. It's to

1698
01:26:11,640 --> 01:26:15,040
Speaker 1: give women options to do whatever they want. Fascinatingly enough,

1699
01:26:15,200 --> 01:26:18,240
Speaker 1: it turns out many chose to have children. Even if

1700
01:26:18,320 --> 01:26:21,320
Speaker 1: you disagree on immigration, at least take away this. The

1701
01:26:21,400 --> 01:26:25,040
Speaker 1: crime here is the current situation only works for college

1702
01:26:25,160 --> 01:26:28,320
Speaker 1: educated women luckily enough to have jobs where they can

1703
01:26:28,400 --> 01:26:31,679
Speaker 1: work from home. Working class women or house moms deserve

1704
01:26:31,720 --> 01:26:34,479
Speaker 1: the same flexible conditions that opera classes have now been

1705
01:26:34,520 --> 01:26:37,880
Speaker 1: afforded by the remote work revolution. Right now in the US,

1706
01:26:38,040 --> 01:26:40,160
Speaker 1: having a child is a luxury good, and the mini

1707
01:26:40,200 --> 01:26:43,080
Speaker 1: baby boom amongst the college educated proves it. But it's

1708
01:26:43,080 --> 01:26:46,360
Speaker 1: not just money, it's time and its flexibility. That's what

1709
01:26:46,479 --> 01:26:48,960
Speaker 1: shift workers and those who work in the service industry.

1710
01:26:49,120 --> 01:26:52,160
Speaker 1: They lack freedom more than anything, and something our government

1711
01:26:52,200 --> 01:26:55,479
Speaker 1: actually can give them if they so choose. So let

1712
01:26:55,479 --> 01:26:58,160
Speaker 1: the data be a lesson simply freeing people up can

1713
01:26:58,200 --> 01:27:01,080
Speaker 1: have amazing results. Let it also show that the solution

1714
01:27:01,200 --> 01:27:03,240
Speaker 1: was on our nose the whole time. Let people do

1715
01:27:03,320 --> 01:27:05,719
Speaker 1: whatever they want, and when you do, you can actually

1716
01:27:05,760 --> 01:27:08,000
Speaker 1: have some pretty crazy things happen. I mean, I thought

1717
01:27:08,040 --> 01:27:10,639
Speaker 1: it was amazing to see that and if you want

1718
01:27:10,640 --> 01:27:13,719
Speaker 1: to hear my reaction to Cyber's monologue, become a premium

1719
01:27:13,760 --> 01:27:19,880
Speaker 1: subscriber today at Breakingpoints dot Com. Very excited about our

1720
01:27:19,920 --> 01:27:21,960
Speaker 1: next guest and one I have been following for a

1721
01:27:22,120 --> 01:27:25,639
Speaker 1: very long time. Ronafaruhar is author of Don't Be Evil

1722
01:27:25,760 --> 01:27:28,000
Speaker 1: and Makers and Takers, both great books. She's out with

1723
01:27:28,080 --> 01:27:30,920
Speaker 1: a new book. It's called Homecoming, The Path to Prosperity

1724
01:27:31,000 --> 01:27:34,120
Speaker 1: in a Post global World, and she is also Global

1725
01:27:34,160 --> 01:27:38,120
Speaker 1: business Calumnists and associate editor for The Financial Times. Great

1726
01:27:38,160 --> 01:27:39,720
Speaker 1: to see Rana, How are you good? To see you?

1727
01:27:40,600 --> 01:27:42,800
Speaker 1: So good to see you, guys. Thank you for having

1728
01:27:42,840 --> 01:27:46,120
Speaker 1: me on. Yeah, absolutely so. I don't want to butcher

1729
01:27:46,200 --> 01:27:50,160
Speaker 1: your thesis, but basically your idea in Homecoming is that

1730
01:27:50,360 --> 01:27:55,120
Speaker 1: the age of unfettered globalization is ending, that we're headed

1731
01:27:55,160 --> 01:27:57,599
Speaker 1: in a different direction, and you try to sketch down

1732
01:27:57,680 --> 01:27:59,439
Speaker 1: a little bit of you know, the science that that's

1733
01:27:59,439 --> 01:28:02,519
Speaker 1: already happened, and also what this future might look like.

1734
01:28:02,600 --> 01:28:05,080
Speaker 1: So just first of all, did I capture that accurately?

1735
01:28:05,360 --> 01:28:07,840
Speaker 1: And second of all, lay lay on a little bit

1736
01:28:07,880 --> 01:28:10,879
Speaker 1: of what you see happening here? You ll crystal, you've

1737
01:28:10,880 --> 01:28:18,760
Speaker 1: got that coatree, I get an AA. Basically, we've been

1738
01:28:18,840 --> 01:28:21,639
Speaker 1: living for the last half century in a world of

1739
01:28:21,920 --> 01:28:27,839
Speaker 1: hyper globalization, no holes barred financialization. You know, big companies

1740
01:28:27,880 --> 01:28:31,559
Speaker 1: can put jobs, put money wherever they want. That is

1741
01:28:31,680 --> 01:28:34,360
Speaker 1: the neoliberal paradigm, and that's you know, that's umouthful. But

1742
01:28:34,439 --> 01:28:38,559
Speaker 1: neoliberalism is really the political philosophy that's been adopted by

1743
01:28:38,560 --> 01:28:41,479
Speaker 1: both parties in fact in the last half century, both

1744
01:28:41,479 --> 01:28:44,760
Speaker 1: by the you know Reagan Thatcher sort of Republicans, but

1745
01:28:44,880 --> 01:28:48,839
Speaker 1: also the Clintonian Democrats. And the idea is that trickle

1746
01:28:48,880 --> 01:28:52,000
Speaker 1: down theory works. Markets are efficient and just let people

1747
01:28:52,000 --> 01:28:54,880
Speaker 1: go where they will, let money and goods go where

1748
01:28:54,920 --> 01:28:56,439
Speaker 1: they will, and it's all going to land where it's

1749
01:28:56,439 --> 01:28:59,160
Speaker 1: most productive and best for it to do so. But

1750
01:28:59,439 --> 01:29:02,639
Speaker 1: the problem is while that created a lot of wealth

1751
01:29:02,680 --> 01:29:07,640
Speaker 1: at a global level, it also created tremendous in country inequality,

1752
01:29:08,040 --> 01:29:10,200
Speaker 1: and we've been living with the consequences of that. You know,

1753
01:29:10,240 --> 01:29:12,479
Speaker 1: the hollowed out parts of the Rust Belt and the

1754
01:29:12,520 --> 01:29:16,559
Speaker 1: South that have become red states or swing states, the

1755
01:29:16,560 --> 01:29:20,720
Speaker 1: deaths of despair, you know, the sense that American competitiveness

1756
01:29:20,720 --> 01:29:24,000
Speaker 1: has been erooded because we've outsourced our entire supply chain.

1757
01:29:24,560 --> 01:29:27,040
Speaker 1: All these things are now coming to the fore, particularly

1758
01:29:27,040 --> 01:29:29,880
Speaker 1: in the wake of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Right,

1759
01:29:29,920 --> 01:29:31,360
Speaker 1: and so one of the things that a lot of

1760
01:29:31,360 --> 01:29:33,800
Speaker 1: people woke up to with the supply chain crisis and

1761
01:29:33,880 --> 01:29:36,400
Speaker 1: more is like, Wow, I can't get stuff that I ordered.

1762
01:29:36,439 --> 01:29:38,400
Speaker 1: But what is the solution to that? You know, we

1763
01:29:38,439 --> 01:29:40,599
Speaker 1: see a lot of people saying, oh, well, we need

1764
01:29:40,640 --> 01:29:42,400
Speaker 1: to build here at home. As we've all found out

1765
01:29:42,400 --> 01:29:44,759
Speaker 1: the hard way, it takes five to ten years to build.

1766
01:29:44,840 --> 01:29:46,920
Speaker 1: If you want a new semiconductors, you got to wait

1767
01:29:46,960 --> 01:29:49,519
Speaker 1: fifteen years, you know, at best in some cases, if

1768
01:29:49,520 --> 01:29:51,720
Speaker 1: you can even do it at all. And something I

1769
01:29:51,760 --> 01:29:53,840
Speaker 1: think that you get in the book is about what

1770
01:29:53,880 --> 01:29:56,240
Speaker 1: the solutions that look like on a practical level. So

1771
01:29:56,320 --> 01:29:58,880
Speaker 1: lay it out for her for us. Yeah, so there's

1772
01:29:58,920 --> 01:30:01,960
Speaker 1: not one silver bullet to be fair and yet building

1773
01:30:01,960 --> 01:30:05,519
Speaker 1: a news conductor fab time. But we actually have and

1774
01:30:05,560 --> 01:30:07,400
Speaker 1: this is really the good news, and it is a

1775
01:30:07,439 --> 01:30:10,000
Speaker 1: good news book. We have a lot more agility and

1776
01:30:10,040 --> 01:30:14,280
Speaker 1: a lot more manufacturing competitiveness in this country than we're

1777
01:30:14,320 --> 01:30:16,600
Speaker 1: aware of. And I'll give you one story because my

1778
01:30:16,680 --> 01:30:19,760
Speaker 1: book has these big, lofty theses, but it sort of

1779
01:30:19,760 --> 01:30:23,320
Speaker 1: looks at them through the lens of three three different industries, agriculture, textiles,

1780
01:30:23,320 --> 01:30:25,680
Speaker 1: and technology. And I spent a lot of time in

1781
01:30:25,680 --> 01:30:29,479
Speaker 1: the Carolinas in the textile supply chain during the before

1782
01:30:29,520 --> 01:30:32,760
Speaker 1: and during the pandemic. And here are these companies. Okay,

1783
01:30:32,800 --> 01:30:36,360
Speaker 1: nobody's buying clothes, so they're looking around and thinking what

1784
01:30:36,360 --> 01:30:38,920
Speaker 1: can we do. Well, they turned on a dime in

1785
01:30:38,960 --> 01:30:41,760
Speaker 1: forty eight hours and started making masks, and they were

1786
01:30:41,880 --> 01:30:44,679
Speaker 1: moving millions of them around the country. Now, what's very

1787
01:30:44,680 --> 01:30:48,679
Speaker 1: interesting is before the pandemic hit, Americans were basically buying

1788
01:30:48,720 --> 01:30:51,280
Speaker 1: three cent masks from China, which, by the way, is

1789
01:30:51,320 --> 01:30:53,760
Speaker 1: dumping because the raw materials would make it a five

1790
01:30:53,840 --> 01:30:58,280
Speaker 1: or six cent product. But that's another topic. Beijing decides

1791
01:30:58,479 --> 01:31:01,799
Speaker 1: understandably it wants those for its people. It hoards the masks,

1792
01:31:02,120 --> 01:31:04,200
Speaker 1: we have to start producing them. In the US, say,

1793
01:31:04,479 --> 01:31:07,080
Speaker 1: the cost of a USA mask is thirty cents, but

1794
01:31:07,120 --> 01:31:10,240
Speaker 1: by the end of a pandemic, these folks, these very nimble,

1795
01:31:10,640 --> 01:31:13,439
Speaker 1: often family owned private businesses, had driven those costs down

1796
01:31:13,479 --> 01:31:17,040
Speaker 1: to ten cents. And then when you factor in higher

1797
01:31:17,120 --> 01:31:21,920
Speaker 1: labor standards, good environmental standards in this country, not having

1798
01:31:21,920 --> 01:31:24,320
Speaker 1: to haul things, you know, thousands of miles and spend

1799
01:31:24,320 --> 01:31:26,720
Speaker 1: that energy cost and the emissions cost to bring things

1800
01:31:26,760 --> 01:31:30,040
Speaker 1: through the South China supply chains. You know, it actually

1801
01:31:30,120 --> 01:31:32,439
Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense to do more at home.

1802
01:31:33,080 --> 01:31:35,720
Speaker 1: All kinds of reasons for this technology that are you know,

1803
01:31:35,800 --> 01:31:38,240
Speaker 1: allowing things to be three D printed in real time

1804
01:31:38,280 --> 01:31:40,200
Speaker 1: are taking off. I think we're going to be doing

1805
01:31:40,240 --> 01:31:43,120
Speaker 1: a lot more here at home. What did you make

1806
01:31:43,280 --> 01:31:48,000
Speaker 1: of the sort of instant calamity triggered by the short

1807
01:31:48,000 --> 01:31:51,320
Speaker 1: lived Prime Minister of the UK, Liz Trust, who went

1808
01:31:51,560 --> 01:31:54,919
Speaker 1: all in on the sort of most ideological, most strident

1809
01:31:55,040 --> 01:32:00,160
Speaker 1: version of the Reagan Thatcherism. Free market economics comes in

1810
01:32:00,280 --> 01:32:02,720
Speaker 1: with this proposed mini budget to slash taxes on the

1811
01:32:02,800 --> 01:32:06,400
Speaker 1: rich and forego a raised in corporate taxes and even

1812
01:32:06,520 --> 01:32:09,160
Speaker 1: like I'm going to lift the cap on banker bonuses,

1813
01:32:09,280 --> 01:32:11,880
Speaker 1: like this whole hog on this thing, and the very

1814
01:32:12,000 --> 01:32:16,000
Speaker 1: markets that she revered completely turned on her and there

1815
01:32:16,040 --> 01:32:18,559
Speaker 1: was an almost complete collapse. I mean, what did you

1816
01:32:18,640 --> 01:32:20,760
Speaker 1: make of that in terms of, you know, what it

1817
01:32:20,800 --> 01:32:23,800
Speaker 1: says about where we are in the era of neoliberalism

1818
01:32:24,040 --> 01:32:27,120
Speaker 1: and what the both public and market reaction is to

1819
01:32:27,240 --> 01:32:31,040
Speaker 1: this type of ideological project at this point, you know,

1820
01:32:31,160 --> 01:32:34,120
Speaker 1: It's a great question, and I couldn't frankly have asked

1821
01:32:34,160 --> 01:32:37,320
Speaker 1: for a better peg, a news peg for my book,

1822
01:32:37,439 --> 01:32:41,639
Speaker 1: because if you think about okay, trickle down started with Reagan, Thatcher,

1823
01:32:41,720 --> 01:32:44,960
Speaker 1: that pendulum swung so far that we now have this

1824
01:32:45,040 --> 01:32:48,200
Speaker 1: incredibly bifurcated economy, both in the US and the UK.

1825
01:32:48,680 --> 01:32:50,840
Speaker 1: You get a prime minister that comes in and says, yeah,

1826
01:32:50,880 --> 01:32:53,200
Speaker 1: you know, we still believe that the way to growth

1827
01:32:53,520 --> 01:32:56,400
Speaker 1: is to cut taxes on the ridge that's worked. No,

1828
01:32:56,760 --> 01:33:01,240
Speaker 1: it hasn't worked. It hasn't worked definitely for twenty years.

1829
01:33:01,280 --> 01:33:04,679
Speaker 1: If you look across the board at all all workers

1830
01:33:04,680 --> 01:33:07,240
Speaker 1: and all salaries, it hasn't worked for forty years if

1831
01:33:07,240 --> 01:33:09,880
Speaker 1: you look at working people. So you know, no big

1832
01:33:09,920 --> 01:33:13,680
Speaker 1: surprise that the market said, hold on, we don't think so.

1833
01:33:14,000 --> 01:33:16,559
Speaker 1: And particularly if you're going to cut taxes even as

1834
01:33:16,560 --> 01:33:20,080
Speaker 1: you're increasing fuel subsidies and spending, we don't like that.

1835
01:33:20,160 --> 01:33:23,360
Speaker 1: So I think the demise of trust Anomics, if you

1836
01:33:23,439 --> 01:33:27,320
Speaker 1: will might call it, that is potentially the apex and

1837
01:33:27,360 --> 01:33:29,559
Speaker 1: the turning point, you know, where we start going down

1838
01:33:29,600 --> 01:33:34,000
Speaker 1: this hill of neoliberalism, hopefully to something better. And what

1839
01:33:34,040 --> 01:33:37,200
Speaker 1: are the downsides you know to this change? Obviously deglobalization.

1840
01:33:37,680 --> 01:33:40,240
Speaker 1: We've gone through a period of this with depression and

1841
01:33:40,240 --> 01:33:43,080
Speaker 1: all that in the nineteen twenties, in nineteen thirties. Can

1842
01:33:43,120 --> 01:33:46,440
Speaker 1: we avoid some of the pitfalls both politically and economically

1843
01:33:46,439 --> 01:33:48,280
Speaker 1: from that time or do you think it's maybe just

1844
01:33:48,320 --> 01:33:52,960
Speaker 1: as raucous in the transition? Great questions. So, look, we

1845
01:33:53,000 --> 01:33:54,600
Speaker 1: are in a bumpy period. I mean, the world is

1846
01:33:54,600 --> 01:33:57,719
Speaker 1: not flat, right, That's one of my big, my big thess.

1847
01:33:57,760 --> 01:33:59,560
Speaker 1: The world is bumpy. It's never been flat, you know,

1848
01:33:59,600 --> 01:34:01,760
Speaker 1: there was I've been going to China, for example, for

1849
01:34:01,800 --> 01:34:04,680
Speaker 1: twenty five years. I've never landed in China and looked

1850
01:34:04,720 --> 01:34:08,320
Speaker 1: around and thought, Wow, this country, big, rich, old country,

1851
01:34:08,320 --> 01:34:10,760
Speaker 1: with its own tradition's own system is going to seamlessly

1852
01:34:10,840 --> 01:34:13,240
Speaker 1: bit into the Washington consensus. Yeah, that's going to happen,

1853
01:34:13,880 --> 01:34:17,559
Speaker 1: you know. But we now see those things and so

1854
01:34:17,560 --> 01:34:21,439
Speaker 1: we're no longer willfully blind to them. Some people would

1855
01:34:21,439 --> 01:34:24,280
Speaker 1: look at, say the export bands that the Biden administration

1856
01:34:24,360 --> 01:34:27,760
Speaker 1: has put on high end chips to dually use chips

1857
01:34:27,760 --> 01:34:31,320
Speaker 1: to China as being an aggressive action. In fact, this

1858
01:34:31,400 --> 01:34:35,360
Speaker 1: administration is just reacting to China's own stated goal of

1859
01:34:35,400 --> 01:34:39,280
Speaker 1: being totally independent of Western technology in the next few years.

1860
01:34:39,360 --> 01:34:41,920
Speaker 1: And you know, the party is really hardening. You saw

1861
01:34:41,960 --> 01:34:43,679
Speaker 1: that at the last Party conference and over the last

1862
01:34:43,680 --> 01:34:47,200
Speaker 1: few days. So this is reality. But it doesn't have

1863
01:34:47,320 --> 01:34:49,439
Speaker 1: to be a zero sum game. I think you know,

1864
01:34:49,840 --> 01:34:53,040
Speaker 1: I did an event with Janet Yell and Treasure Sectuary

1865
01:34:53,080 --> 01:34:55,800
Speaker 1: at Atlantic Council several months ago where she first used

1866
01:34:55,800 --> 01:34:58,920
Speaker 1: that word friend shoring, which is about let's create a

1867
01:34:58,960 --> 01:35:02,240
Speaker 1: trade system that's about values. Let's make sure we're not

1868
01:35:02,360 --> 01:35:05,280
Speaker 1: buying cotton T shirts that are made by tiny fingers

1869
01:35:05,280 --> 01:35:08,160
Speaker 1: in a forced labor camp in Shinjang. Let's make sure

1870
01:35:08,200 --> 01:35:11,959
Speaker 1: we're trading with companies that treat workers and the environment properly.

1871
01:35:12,200 --> 01:35:15,280
Speaker 1: And this is part of the Inflation Reduction Act. Let's

1872
01:35:15,320 --> 01:35:17,719
Speaker 1: make sure that we give some carrots as well as sticks.

1873
01:35:17,760 --> 01:35:20,960
Speaker 1: So domestic producers at home that are doing the right things,

1874
01:35:21,320 --> 01:35:25,000
Speaker 1: let's reward them. Let's incentivize them as well as making

1875
01:35:25,000 --> 01:35:27,160
Speaker 1: it harder or more expensive for folks who are doing

1876
01:35:27,160 --> 01:35:30,400
Speaker 1: the wrong thing to bring stuff into the country. So Rona,

1877
01:35:30,479 --> 01:35:33,240
Speaker 1: I very much see all the signs that you're pointing to,

1878
01:35:33,600 --> 01:35:37,719
Speaker 1: and I think you know the trustnomics collapse, it really

1879
01:35:37,760 --> 01:35:40,720
Speaker 1: demonstrates that whatever there was to get out of that

1880
01:35:40,920 --> 01:35:44,200
Speaker 1: worldview has long been gotten. If there ever was anything

1881
01:35:44,240 --> 01:35:47,160
Speaker 1: to get out of that worldview, those gains have already

1882
01:35:47,320 --> 01:35:49,400
Speaker 1: been attained, and it leads to, you know, nothing but

1883
01:35:49,479 --> 01:35:52,559
Speaker 1: catastrophe at this point. But in the same respect, you know,

1884
01:35:52,560 --> 01:35:54,760
Speaker 1: I get pushed back about the idea that sort of

1885
01:35:54,760 --> 01:35:57,719
Speaker 1: the neoliberal era is ending because they're like Joe Biden

1886
01:35:57,760 --> 01:36:00,760
Speaker 1: is a consumatet neoliberal and he's in charge, and yeah,

1887
01:36:00,840 --> 01:36:02,679
Speaker 1: trust is gone. But now you've got like a golden

1888
01:36:02,720 --> 01:36:06,360
Speaker 1: sax dude who's Prime Minister of the UK. A lot

1889
01:36:06,400 --> 01:36:10,200
Speaker 1: of the power is still with this ideology in terms

1890
01:36:10,200 --> 01:36:13,160
Speaker 1: of the institutions that are, you know, supporting our government.

1891
01:36:13,320 --> 01:36:17,639
Speaker 1: So what do you say to that pushback? Oh well, Crystal,

1892
01:36:17,680 --> 01:36:21,160
Speaker 1: for sure, the neoliberals are not going to die easily.

1893
01:36:21,720 --> 01:36:24,840
Speaker 1: You know, I'm doing personal, hand to hand street fighting

1894
01:36:24,880 --> 01:36:26,240
Speaker 1: with some of them right now. I can tell you

1895
01:36:28,880 --> 01:36:31,680
Speaker 1: I would actually it's funny with Biden, I would. I

1896
01:36:31,720 --> 01:36:34,439
Speaker 1: think Biden is pre neoliberal. I mean, you know, I

1897
01:36:34,479 --> 01:36:38,200
Speaker 1: think he actually hearkens back to an era in which

1898
01:36:38,560 --> 01:36:42,479
Speaker 1: the state and business worked together better, and also parties

1899
01:36:42,520 --> 01:36:45,280
Speaker 1: worked across the aisle better. You know, I don't think

1900
01:36:45,360 --> 01:36:48,160
Speaker 1: there's been a more labor friendly president in this country

1901
01:36:48,400 --> 01:36:50,400
Speaker 1: in decades. I mean, this guy has a bust of

1902
01:36:50,439 --> 01:36:53,280
Speaker 1: Caesar Chavez in his office, so I wouldn't call him

1903
01:36:53,280 --> 01:36:58,439
Speaker 1: a neoliberal. That said, there definitely is an existential fight,

1904
01:36:58,560 --> 01:37:01,360
Speaker 1: I would say within the Democratic alreaty, not just folks

1905
01:37:01,360 --> 01:37:03,840
Speaker 1: that are in the administration, some of whom are as

1906
01:37:03,880 --> 01:37:07,400
Speaker 1: you say, hardcore. You know markets, You're always right, everything

1907
01:37:07,439 --> 01:37:09,240
Speaker 1: has to be cheaper. You know you hear Larry Summers

1908
01:37:09,240 --> 01:37:13,040
Speaker 1: saying that drives me crazy. Cheap isn't cheap, by the way,

1909
01:37:13,240 --> 01:37:18,080
Speaker 1: if you factor in the real cost of energy, emissions, quality, labor,

1910
01:37:18,120 --> 01:37:22,320
Speaker 1: et cetera. But there is also a contingent that's saying,

1911
01:37:22,360 --> 01:37:24,120
Speaker 1: you know, hey, we need to do things a different way,

1912
01:37:24,160 --> 01:37:28,000
Speaker 1: and I know that that contingent has the president's ere Now,

1913
01:37:28,560 --> 01:37:32,000
Speaker 1: I will say, you asked about challenges earlier. The big

1914
01:37:32,080 --> 01:37:36,120
Speaker 1: challenge is inflation, because creating this new world frankly, means

1915
01:37:36,160 --> 01:37:39,519
Speaker 1: pricing products the way they should be priced. We've gotten

1916
01:37:39,600 --> 01:37:43,320
Speaker 1: used to total cheap consumer culture in this country, and

1917
01:37:43,360 --> 01:37:46,760
Speaker 1: we thought we bought the kool aid that if we outsourced,

1918
01:37:46,760 --> 01:37:50,479
Speaker 1: our entire industrial base didn't care about manufacturing jobs. Thought

1919
01:37:50,479 --> 01:37:53,720
Speaker 1: everybody could be a software programmer or a banker or

1920
01:37:53,760 --> 01:37:56,080
Speaker 1: you know, media people like we are that the country

1921
01:37:56,080 --> 01:37:59,200
Speaker 1: would be fine, and it wasn't. Cheaper flat screen TVs

1922
01:37:59,240 --> 01:38:01,120
Speaker 1: in Walmart did not make up for the fact that

1923
01:38:01,160 --> 01:38:04,320
Speaker 1: the price of everything that makes us middle class, housing, healthcare,

1924
01:38:05,080 --> 01:38:07,600
Speaker 1: education is going up, even before the latest bout of

1925
01:38:07,640 --> 01:38:10,640
Speaker 1: inflation three times the triple you know, three times the

1926
01:38:10,640 --> 01:38:15,519
Speaker 1: core inflation rates. So that bargain doesn't work, and we've

1927
01:38:15,560 --> 01:38:18,040
Speaker 1: got to get to a better place, because you know,

1928
01:38:18,080 --> 01:38:21,479
Speaker 1: you cannot have an economy that's based simply on asset

1929
01:38:21,520 --> 01:38:24,160
Speaker 1: prices going up and the rich getting richer it. Just

1930
01:38:25,080 --> 01:38:27,040
Speaker 1: as I think you all would agree, we're really at

1931
01:38:27,040 --> 01:38:29,840
Speaker 1: a social breaking point here with this. Yeah, yeah, very

1932
01:38:30,040 --> 01:38:33,120
Speaker 1: very well said. You know, Rona, you in makers and Takers,

1933
01:38:33,200 --> 01:38:36,559
Speaker 1: actually have an anecdote that I have referenced a number

1934
01:38:36,640 --> 01:38:38,959
Speaker 1: of times, but I think it's really important for understanding

1935
01:38:38,960 --> 01:38:42,120
Speaker 1: the realities of the modern economy because the system of neoliberalism,

1936
01:38:42,200 --> 01:38:44,120
Speaker 1: one of the promises is like, oh, this is going

1937
01:38:44,160 --> 01:38:47,040
Speaker 1: to fuel all kinds of innovation, but even whatever there

1938
01:38:47,120 --> 01:38:49,040
Speaker 1: was to be gained from that has sort of run

1939
01:38:49,080 --> 01:38:51,200
Speaker 1: its course. And you point to the fact that I

1940
01:38:51,200 --> 01:38:54,120
Speaker 1: think your your stats are when Apple decided to when

1941
01:38:54,120 --> 01:38:56,000
Speaker 1: they created the iPod, this like you know, sort of

1942
01:38:56,000 --> 01:38:58,760
Speaker 1: transport formative device and really popular and all of this,

1943
01:38:59,320 --> 01:39:01,679
Speaker 1: they didn't actually do well in terms of the public

1944
01:39:01,720 --> 01:39:04,640
Speaker 1: markets and their stock price when they did their financial

1945
01:39:04,720 --> 01:39:08,439
Speaker 1: rigging stock buybacks. Oh, then they're rewarded, which is a

1946
01:39:08,479 --> 01:39:13,040
Speaker 1: perfect anecdote for what actually drives our economy at this point.

1947
01:39:13,080 --> 01:39:15,000
Speaker 1: So I wonder if you could explain that piece a

1948
01:39:15,040 --> 01:39:17,280
Speaker 1: little bit, because you know, I use this term like

1949
01:39:17,280 --> 01:39:20,200
Speaker 1: the economy's really financialized soccer, and I have thrown that around,

1950
01:39:20,200 --> 01:39:22,759
Speaker 1: but I'm not sure people really understand what that means.

1951
01:39:22,760 --> 01:39:26,160
Speaker 1: Could you help us help explain that. Yeah, absolutely, So

1952
01:39:26,240 --> 01:39:28,679
Speaker 1: it's a great point. So if you look back again

1953
01:39:29,040 --> 01:39:34,200
Speaker 1: to about the nineteen eighties, companies started being incentivized, and

1954
01:39:34,240 --> 01:39:37,760
Speaker 1: our whole economy sort of shifted to being incentivized to

1955
01:39:38,800 --> 01:39:44,920
Speaker 1: help companies global companies get bigger, get richer, things like

1956
01:39:45,200 --> 01:39:48,120
Speaker 1: bands on share buybacks, which are when a company goes

1957
01:39:48,120 --> 01:39:50,280
Speaker 1: out and buys its own shares on the open market.

1958
01:39:50,280 --> 01:39:53,479
Speaker 1: That used to be considered manipulation because it automatically jacks

1959
01:39:53,560 --> 01:39:55,800
Speaker 1: up the price of shares, you know, because you're you're

1960
01:39:55,880 --> 01:39:59,479
Speaker 1: ring fencing them. That was turned over. So, you know,

1961
01:39:59,560 --> 01:40:01,599
Speaker 1: companies start spending a lot of money on their own shares.

1962
01:40:01,640 --> 01:40:04,000
Speaker 1: They start spending less money on things like you know,

1963
01:40:04,320 --> 01:40:07,080
Speaker 1: R and D or building new factories or retraining workers.

1964
01:40:07,360 --> 01:40:10,479
Speaker 1: There's an idea, you know, and that just gets put

1965
01:40:10,600 --> 01:40:16,960
Speaker 1: on kerosene fuel in the nineties, with tax preferential treatment

1966
01:40:17,080 --> 01:40:20,040
Speaker 1: for shares, you know, the Silicon Valley movement towards paying

1967
01:40:20,080 --> 01:40:22,720
Speaker 1: people and shares. So basically the economy starts to be

1968
01:40:22,720 --> 01:40:26,720
Speaker 1: all about pleasing Wall Street, not building real things on

1969
01:40:26,800 --> 01:40:30,880
Speaker 1: Main Street. And so that's why you have this very

1970
01:40:31,120 --> 01:40:33,839
Speaker 1: weird feeling that and we all felt this in the pandemic.

1971
01:40:33,840 --> 01:40:36,559
Speaker 1: Wait a minute, the sky is falling, and yet stock

1972
01:40:36,600 --> 01:40:39,519
Speaker 1: prices are higher than they have ever been. Well, that's

1973
01:40:39,560 --> 01:40:41,680
Speaker 1: because we threw the ball to the Fed for the

1974
01:40:41,760 --> 01:40:44,160
Speaker 1: last forty years. Both parties did and said you fix it,

1975
01:40:44,240 --> 01:40:46,800
Speaker 1: keep rate slow, you know. But what that does is

1976
01:40:46,840 --> 01:40:50,000
Speaker 1: it just inflates asset prices. It doesn't change the story

1977
01:40:50,000 --> 01:40:52,599
Speaker 1: on Main Street. It doesn't help us create the new

1978
01:40:52,640 --> 01:40:55,479
Speaker 1: new thing. And we're now at the end of that too,

1979
01:40:55,640 --> 01:40:59,200
Speaker 1: because interest rates are rising. We're done with cheap capital.

1980
01:40:59,400 --> 01:41:02,080
Speaker 1: We're largely done with cheap labor from China because they're

1981
01:41:02,160 --> 01:41:04,599
Speaker 1: ring fencing their own economy, and we're done with cheap

1982
01:41:04,680 --> 01:41:08,240
Speaker 1: energy from Russia. So that whole cheap you know model

1983
01:41:08,800 --> 01:41:11,040
Speaker 1: is gone and we need a new plan. And some

1984
01:41:11,080 --> 01:41:12,599
Speaker 1: of it is going to have to be about building

1985
01:41:12,640 --> 01:41:17,400
Speaker 1: resilience at home, paying workers more, having a more balanced

1986
01:41:17,400 --> 01:41:20,439
Speaker 1: production and consumption economy, and then figuring out who's going

1987
01:41:20,479 --> 01:41:21,880
Speaker 1: to pick up the tab for that, because there are

1988
01:41:21,880 --> 01:41:24,200
Speaker 1: going to be some costs, and I suspect and I

1989
01:41:24,200 --> 01:41:26,200
Speaker 1: think it should be this way, that companies should should

1990
01:41:26,240 --> 01:41:29,960
Speaker 1: pay more. You know, I support things like the Chips

1991
01:41:30,000 --> 01:41:33,080
Speaker 1: Act to create some incentives to build semiconductors in this country.

1992
01:41:33,080 --> 01:41:35,080
Speaker 1: But I sure as heck don't want to see every

1993
01:41:35,120 --> 01:41:37,880
Speaker 1: industry lining up the White House to get bail you know,

1994
01:41:37,920 --> 01:41:39,840
Speaker 1: to get a handout or a bailout. They need to

1995
01:41:39,880 --> 01:41:44,760
Speaker 1: be spending their money productively to create real innovation, real growth,

1996
01:41:44,760 --> 01:41:48,120
Speaker 1: and real jobs. And you know, the clean energy transformation

1997
01:41:48,200 --> 01:41:50,120
Speaker 1: that we're going to be going through is the perfect

1998
01:41:50,160 --> 01:41:53,479
Speaker 1: example of this. If you look back historically, the periods

1999
01:41:53,479 --> 01:41:58,000
Speaker 1: in time where you see long term sustainable shared growth

2000
01:41:58,360 --> 01:42:01,120
Speaker 1: are when there is a transformative technology, like say the

2001
01:42:01,200 --> 01:42:04,479
Speaker 1: railroads or the internet, and the public sector puts the

2002
01:42:04,479 --> 01:42:07,479
Speaker 1: floor under it, and then private sector companies come in

2003
01:42:07,520 --> 01:42:09,720
Speaker 1: and commercialize it. And that's when you start to lift

2004
01:42:09,760 --> 01:42:13,160
Speaker 1: all boats. Not by doing you know, financial engineering of

2005
01:42:13,479 --> 01:42:16,559
Speaker 1: share buybacks or private equity firms coming in and splicing

2006
01:42:16,600 --> 01:42:19,040
Speaker 1: and dicing companies. We've got to get away from that.

2007
01:42:19,080 --> 01:42:22,240
Speaker 1: We can't compete with China if we keep doing that. Yeah,

2008
01:42:22,280 --> 01:42:24,880
Speaker 1: I think it's really well said, and I really encourage

2009
01:42:24,880 --> 01:42:26,640
Speaker 1: everybody to go and buy the book. We'll have a

2010
01:42:26,680 --> 01:42:28,600
Speaker 1: link down in the description. Thank you so much for

2011
01:42:28,640 --> 01:42:30,639
Speaker 1: joining us. We really appreciate it. Great to see Rona.

2012
01:42:30,680 --> 01:42:33,200
Speaker 1: Thank you. Thank you guys so much for watching. We

2013
01:42:33,240 --> 01:42:35,080
Speaker 1: really appreciate It's gonna be fun times. We're gonna have

2014
01:42:35,080 --> 01:42:36,920
Speaker 1: a great show for you on Thursday. Counterpoints is going

2015
01:42:36,960 --> 01:42:38,760
Speaker 1: to have a great show on Friday. We've got some

2016
01:42:38,840 --> 01:42:41,960
Speaker 1: fun stuff happening schedule wise. Stay tuned for a little

2017
01:42:41,960 --> 01:42:44,560
Speaker 1: bit of administrative announcements. Premium subs. You guys make it

2018
01:42:44,600 --> 01:42:47,200
Speaker 1: all possible. We've got some great hiring going on right now,

2019
01:42:47,240 --> 01:42:50,400
Speaker 1: literally made only possible by you. So we can't thank

2020
01:42:50,439 --> 01:42:53,000
Speaker 1: you enough for putting us in this position. We alluded

2021
01:42:53,040 --> 01:42:56,120
Speaker 1: earlier today about the Hill having a sponsorship from Huaweia

2022
01:42:56,520 --> 01:42:58,920
Speaker 1: always drove me insane. While we were they had all, oh,

2023
01:42:58,960 --> 01:43:02,280
Speaker 1: they had all kinds of cameras. They're there, American Petroleum Institute,

2024
01:43:02,600 --> 01:43:06,400
Speaker 1: Coke Industries. Such a night. So to be truly only

2025
01:43:06,439 --> 01:43:09,040
Speaker 1: relying on you, it is the great privilege of your life. Indeed,

2026
01:43:09,080 --> 01:43:11,080
Speaker 1: thank you all so much for enabling our work, and

2027
01:43:11,120 --> 01:43:12,120
Speaker 1: we will see you all later.