WEBVTT - 'Bessent Put' Relief Fades, Alibaba Earnings

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Chrisner. In

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<v Speaker 2>the US, the Treasury is deepening its result to get

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<v Speaker 2>government bond yields lower. On Thursday, the Department said its

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<v Speaker 2>expanding efforts to buy back longer term government debt. In

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<v Speaker 2>an interview with CNBC, Treasury Secretary Besson said buybacks could

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<v Speaker 2>be more than four billion dollars per operation. You may

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<v Speaker 2>recall on Wednesday, the Treasury Department surprised markets in saying

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<v Speaker 2>it would increase by at least double the size of

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<v Speaker 2>buybacks for longer dated securities. Now, that announcement, to be

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<v Speaker 2>fair did send long term yields lower, but the move

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<v Speaker 2>proved to be short lived. For a closer look, I'm

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<v Speaker 2>joined by Bloomberg's David Finnerty. He is our FX and

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<v Speaker 2>rate strategist, joining from our studios in Singapore. David, thank

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<v Speaker 2>you for being here. So we ended the New York

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<v Speaker 2>session on Thursday at four point seven zero percent, But

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<v Speaker 2>if you look at where we were Wednesday, the impact

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<v Speaker 2>of that move by the Treasury Department was like a

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<v Speaker 2>flash in the pan. What's your sense of what's happening?

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<v Speaker 3>Here.

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<v Speaker 4>Yeah, I think look, at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 4>you had to put everything in perspective. He's certainly sick,

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<v Speaker 4>he being the Scott Vesson is certainly signaling intentions, but

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<v Speaker 4>in reality do those intentions come to fruition. And one

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<v Speaker 4>of the catches is literally for him, is the size

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<v Speaker 4>of the bond market. I mean, we had headlines out,

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<v Speaker 4>we had been Bloomberg had headlines out this week saying

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<v Speaker 4>that the public deads is forty trillion now and obviously increasing.

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<v Speaker 4>So you had to think, Okay, that's a BIG's bonds

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<v Speaker 4>of alterations and everything, but that's a huge pulse. So

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<v Speaker 4>if you're talking about a few billion, which is you

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<v Speaker 4>say large, but in the scale of forty trillion, you go,

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<v Speaker 4>that's jump change really, And I think this is one

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<v Speaker 4>of the problems that Besson has in the end of day.

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<v Speaker 4>It's like any intervention he tries to do, depending on

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<v Speaker 4>the gale of it, will have a limited impact. And

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<v Speaker 4>even as we've seen the intervention with Japan, it doesn't

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<v Speaker 4>change have a largely impact. It doesn't change the fundamentals.

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<v Speaker 4>Now Scott person said, well, the markets is missing the fundamentals.

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<v Speaker 4>The market will quickly go no we're not. Oil is

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<v Speaker 4>rising again, flacerym pressures are building, inflation is still above

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<v Speaker 4>the target. You're running ever, us being is running ever

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<v Speaker 4>and ever growing larger public deficits. So at the end

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<v Speaker 4>of the day, the treasury market goes, look what you're

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<v Speaker 4>borrowing from us. We're the lender. We sort of set

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<v Speaker 4>the rate, and it's based on what we perceive. So

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<v Speaker 4>you can say we're wrong, but we are the lender

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<v Speaker 4>and we will say what the price is. So at

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<v Speaker 4>the end of the day, I think he's he said

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<v Speaker 4>last year, Look he wants to ten year yields. Are

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<v Speaker 4>He's and the Trump's administration focus. Therefore, obviously he can't

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<v Speaker 4>be happy with the direction they're going. But if you're

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<v Speaker 4>the treasury market and the lenders, you're going, well, I'm

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<v Speaker 4>raising the price because in reality good reason too.

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<v Speaker 2>Racerprise, Well, you touched on two key things, one being

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<v Speaker 2>the level of inflation here in the US well above

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<v Speaker 2>the Fed's target. One of the reasons that there may

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<v Speaker 2>have been a little upward pressure on the bond market

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<v Speaker 2>or on the long term end of the treasury curve,

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<v Speaker 2>particularly at a time when I think the market's struggling

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<v Speaker 2>to figure out where the FED is in the conversation

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<v Speaker 2>around inflation. We know what we have heard from Chair

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<v Speaker 2>Walsh saying that he is adamant about getting inflation under control.

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<v Speaker 2>I think the bond market may be a little confused though,

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<v Speaker 2>with some of the messaging that's attached to that. Then

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<v Speaker 2>there is the fiscal deficit story, which you touched upon.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm wondering too when you look at the flood of

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<v Speaker 2>AI related debt that's coming to market, new corporate supply

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<v Speaker 2>and the level of competition that that introduces for US treasuries,

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<v Speaker 2>whether that has become a major factor as well.

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<v Speaker 4>Look, it certainly has. I think you go to basic

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<v Speaker 4>equalost one oh one prices determined by a supply and demand,

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<v Speaker 4>and demand for longer term bonds we view it that

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<v Speaker 4>way rather than just treasuries is affected by supply. So

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<v Speaker 4>you're you know, if I'm buying treasuries, I'm looking more

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<v Speaker 4>what else could I buy? So, yes, there's different risk

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<v Speaker 4>parameters certainly within that context. But in the day it's

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<v Speaker 4>you know, a long bond to long bond and you're

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<v Speaker 4>going to pick what you want. This whole supply will

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<v Speaker 4>impact that sort of pricing, So I think That is

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<v Speaker 4>another factor again that has to be borne into this,

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<v Speaker 4>and you have to think that with the deficit. Obviously

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<v Speaker 4>we don't know what public deficits this year, but last

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<v Speaker 4>year was over five percent. The years before that it's

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<v Speaker 4>been over five percent, being over six percent. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>this is the catch for the US is at the

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<v Speaker 4>end of the day, it continues to run a public

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<v Speaker 4>deficit no matter who is in charge. It could be democrat,

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<v Speaker 4>it could be Republican. Over the last twenty or so years,

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<v Speaker 4>it doesn't matter who is in charge, the deficit gets

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<v Speaker 4>larger and larger and larger because they keep running percent deficit.

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<v Speaker 4>Evenf you do its percentage GDP, which is a fair barometer,

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<v Speaker 4>it's still five to six percent or higher during COVID times.

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<v Speaker 4>And that is the catch. It's just ever growing. So

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<v Speaker 4>the supplies coming in from the treasury is coming on

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<v Speaker 4>from corporates, and at the end of the day, with

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<v Speaker 4>the present exists the inflation pressures, the market is going, look,

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<v Speaker 4>this is what we deem to be a fair price. Now,

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<v Speaker 4>circumstances could change, and they say the price will change.

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<v Speaker 4>In theory, the market has all the information and therefore

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<v Speaker 4>it makes an outcurate price and goes that's the fair price.

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<v Speaker 4>So while, as said Scott Bessett may say it's missing

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<v Speaker 4>some fundamental data or whatever, the market goes, no, I'm not.

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<v Speaker 4>And I think what becomes really interesting now is we'll

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<v Speaker 4>have Scott Persant talk maybe today, maybe early next week.

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<v Speaker 4>But then very quickly we go to Governor wash and

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<v Speaker 4>there's Jackson the whole speech, and it's going to be

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<v Speaker 4>very interesting to see what he says given this backdrop,

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<v Speaker 4>and given a backdrop that he doesn't like communicating forward guidance.

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<v Speaker 4>What at the end of the day, if you don't

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<v Speaker 4>give the market something next week, the market's going, Okay,

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<v Speaker 4>I'm just gonna do what I want to do.

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<v Speaker 2>Let's talk a little bit about what's going on in

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<v Speaker 2>Japan because we have the print on CPI for the

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<v Speaker 2>month of July, so retail inflation in Japan accelerated for

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<v Speaker 2>a second straight month. Overall CPI up at an annual

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<v Speaker 2>rate of one point nine percent. Do you think that's

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<v Speaker 2>going to keep pressure on the boj to really tighten

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<v Speaker 2>again in the near term, maybe as soon as September.

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<v Speaker 4>But be honest, whatever that data was, and this it

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<v Speaker 4>came in way, way, way on the estimate, which obviously didn't.

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<v Speaker 4>Then I think the boj is at the moment for

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<v Speaker 4>vehetoric is I'm hiking in September of not definitely October.

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<v Speaker 4>And basically now the market's going, we're pricing that in.

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<v Speaker 4>So you sort of have to unforcing your hand. Now

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<v Speaker 4>the signals are that you're going to do it. I'm

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<v Speaker 4>they go taking you at your word. If you do

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<v Speaker 4>not do it, therefore, the gen will come to pressure

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<v Speaker 4>very very quickly. So really in the day, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>you could go, oh, September two over. You know, it's

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<v Speaker 4>a month between pick which one you want Septembers that

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<v Speaker 4>can it's certainly a good chance one in September. I

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<v Speaker 4>think the question becomes now again even at the next meeting,

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<v Speaker 4>is if they hike or not hike. If they don't hike,

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<v Speaker 4>they go, okay, October's basically the market's going, you've got

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<v Speaker 4>to do it in October. Now, then the question becomes

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<v Speaker 4>how many more hikes are we going that? So you're

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<v Speaker 4>looking not just when the hike is, it's how many

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<v Speaker 4>more hikes? Where is that terminal rate? And how quickly

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<v Speaker 4>are we getting there? The indications are a quicker process

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<v Speaker 4>so rather than being once every six months, maybe once

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<v Speaker 4>a quarter, you know, something like that. So but the

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<v Speaker 4>market literally cares about that, how quick, how high where

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<v Speaker 4>we going? We've priced in something? Are we accurate or

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<v Speaker 4>not accurate? And if we're not accurate, we will just

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<v Speaker 4>upwards or downwards accordingly.

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<v Speaker 2>So as I'm listening to you, I'm trying to understand

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<v Speaker 2>what the market suspects the BOJ is up to, and

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<v Speaker 2>if tightening were to become more aggressive, how the Japanese

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<v Speaker 2>bond market and how the end might react.

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<v Speaker 4>Certainly, if you're looking at dollar yen, I do think

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<v Speaker 4>it's the dollar side of the equation that really kicks in.

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<v Speaker 4>I think with the markets already looking for rate hikes

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<v Speaker 4>for Japan, like you know, two or three already priced

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<v Speaker 4>in over the next year. Yes, you could be more

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<v Speaker 4>hawkish than that, but realistically is that going to happen? Unlikely,

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<v Speaker 4>I would say. So therefore you go, okay, if it's

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<v Speaker 4>back to the dollar side of the equation, which again

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<v Speaker 4>I think comes back to whatever Scott Busset's trying to do.

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<v Speaker 4>What does the governor war signal? What's the data coming

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<v Speaker 4>in on? Because again, without signals, the markets go I

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<v Speaker 4>need the data and be fair. The US data has

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<v Speaker 4>been coming in quite solid. Inflation is above expectations, but

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<v Speaker 4>you know, the growth is quite solid. We have PMI

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<v Speaker 4>data out today. Market we look at that, so all

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<v Speaker 4>all the markets still going. Look, I think you're doing

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<v Speaker 4>the rate hike this year or certainly soon. You know,

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<v Speaker 4>you'd really need that to be unwined and unwound pretty

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<v Speaker 4>quickly for dolly en to really move lower on the

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<v Speaker 4>On that side, I think when you're looking at Japanese

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<v Speaker 4>yields as a catch there, generally, I think the catches

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<v Speaker 4>not only what does the government do in terms of

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<v Speaker 4>its deficits obviously that's a functioning what does but also

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<v Speaker 4>what the global yels do. I mean, you have to

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<v Speaker 4>remember they all get caught up in this global tide,

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<v Speaker 4>and certainly where US goes, it tends to pull other

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<v Speaker 4>yields with them. So even if I'm in Japan, even

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<v Speaker 4>though I do policies to say, hey, look, you know,

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<v Speaker 4>faces under control, blah blah blah, at the end of

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<v Speaker 4>the day, if US yields, say, were to drift higher,

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<v Speaker 4>just historically, you know, it pulls everything higher with it.

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<v Speaker 4>It just does. So you know, the factors outside of

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<v Speaker 4>Japan could even impact have a bit end up having

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<v Speaker 4>a bigger impact on Japanese yels and even potentially domestic policy.

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<v Speaker 2>Interesting. David, always a pleasure. Thank you so very much.

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<v Speaker 2>David Finnerdy Bloomberg FX and Rate strategists joining from Singapore

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<v Speaker 2>here on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the

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<v Speaker 2>Daybreak Asia Podcast. I'm Doug Krisner. We moved next to

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<v Speaker 2>the earnings from Ali Baba, China's e commerce leader, delivered

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<v Speaker 2>nine percent revenue growth that was in line with expectations. However,

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<v Speaker 2>net profit plunged seventy five percent after the company increased

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<v Speaker 2>capital spending to nearly ten billion dollars. We got reaction

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<v Speaker 2>from Sean Yang. Sean is senior research analyst at Arite Research.

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<v Speaker 2>He spoke with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and

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<v Speaker 2>Paul Allen.

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<v Speaker 1>Obviously, we're seeing so many of these companies caught up

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<v Speaker 1>in the cycle of the AI investment spend at the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you place Alibaba within that?

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<v Speaker 5>Yeah, I think Alibaba has a clear strategy.

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<v Speaker 3>It's something they called a full stack as strategy, So

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<v Speaker 3>basically they have tea haas which their own GPU. They

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<v Speaker 3>have cloud illiness and which I think that invest a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of resources to that.

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<v Speaker 5>They also have quin models, so they also have large

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<v Speaker 5>Numbrant models.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think Barba sasays it that you know, we

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<v Speaker 3>don't know probably just now that's not very clear that

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<v Speaker 3>which layer would capture the most value. But since we

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<v Speaker 3>have all layers, so no matter how like a developments

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<v Speaker 3>like goals that Baba will capture the like the value

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<v Speaker 3>of AI.

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<v Speaker 1>In terms of amongst the competitors, right, how strong do

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<v Speaker 1>you think is the lead in terms of how investors

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<v Speaker 1>feel like it's a favorite. There is a bet that

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<v Speaker 1>obviously it can beat the competitors when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>the AI race. Do you think it matters within this

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<v Speaker 1>kind of ecosystem where there are more and more national

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<v Speaker 1>champions being supported in China.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I think this is very interesting question big us

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<v Speaker 3>As we said that you know, bar basically has everything right,

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<v Speaker 3>so which means that also UB has a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>competitors and Barber needs to compete with for example, they

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<v Speaker 3>need to compete with large leng model players like there

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<v Speaker 3>are a couple of independence companies like deep c, Jipu

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<v Speaker 3>and Minimax and Kimmy.

0:12:18.400 --> 0:12:21.040
<v Speaker 5>They also need to compete with you know, ten Cent.

0:12:20.960 --> 0:12:25.959
<v Speaker 3>Clouds, Buydown's Cloud, Volcano Cloud and you know, and also

0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:29.000
<v Speaker 3>that they have a small business in GPU, so I

0:12:29.040 --> 0:12:31.800
<v Speaker 3>wouldn't say that, you know, Badwei is a strong competitive Barber,

0:12:32.559 --> 0:12:35.600
<v Speaker 3>But anyway, I think that's I think the key point

0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.840
<v Speaker 3>is there about the model capability, because I think that

0:12:38.920 --> 0:12:42.000
<v Speaker 3>Barber has the largest share market share in clouds, so

0:12:42.480 --> 0:12:45.720
<v Speaker 3>they definitely have a clear advantage in cloud business.

0:12:46.040 --> 0:12:48.360
<v Speaker 5>But the problem is about I think it's about.

0:12:48.200 --> 0:12:51.880
<v Speaker 3>Like largely last length model that you see that you know,

0:12:51.960 --> 0:12:55.920
<v Speaker 3>the Deeps and Kimmi. They all try to like promote

0:12:56.040 --> 0:13:00.440
<v Speaker 3>publish their models like much more frequently, and this is

0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.959
<v Speaker 3>a highly competitive market. So I think in terms of

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.840
<v Speaker 3>large lage model performance, I think Barba probably facing the

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:10.160
<v Speaker 3>most intensive right competition.

0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 6>Well, Ali Baba and as competitors have something in common.

0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.640
<v Speaker 6>They all spend enormous amounts and borrow enormous amounts on

0:13:18.840 --> 0:13:22.640
<v Speaker 6>developing their AI capabilities. I mean, we heard the CEO

0:13:22.760 --> 0:13:26.240
<v Speaker 6>saying that, look, you see Ali Baba's recouping its overall

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:29.560
<v Speaker 6>AI investment in three years. Do you think that's a

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:31.920
<v Speaker 6>credible timeline? Do you have any concerns about the amount

0:13:31.960 --> 0:13:32.360
<v Speaker 6>of spending.

0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:40.680
<v Speaker 3>I think that's I think Baba's management is right at

0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:45.040
<v Speaker 3>this stage because I think the compute is super like intensified.

0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:48.040
<v Speaker 3>There's kind of like shortage in terms of like computes,

0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:52.199
<v Speaker 3>so which means that the clients are customers enterprises are

0:13:52.240 --> 0:13:55.920
<v Speaker 3>willing to pay more for the computes for the clouds.

0:13:56.040 --> 0:13:58.560
<v Speaker 3>And if you see these large legal model companies like

0:13:58.640 --> 0:14:01.679
<v Speaker 3>deep seek, people say that dip they only provide a

0:14:01.720 --> 0:14:05.240
<v Speaker 3>football models. They also increase the prices. So I think

0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:07.920
<v Speaker 3>at this stage this is right, and I think the

0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:12.720
<v Speaker 3>like this, like supplying bottomneck, will continue for several several quarters,

0:14:12.760 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 3>for several years. But I think there's some uncertainties in

0:14:16.000 --> 0:14:20.560
<v Speaker 3>the future. For example, if Baba, when the Biba could

0:14:20.600 --> 0:14:24.640
<v Speaker 3>continue to keep its large neck model at the frontier model,

0:14:25.480 --> 0:14:29.440
<v Speaker 3>otherwise that Baba will become a company can only provide

0:14:29.560 --> 0:14:32.960
<v Speaker 3>like you know, cloud service and computes that were full

0:14:33.000 --> 0:14:38.240
<v Speaker 3>into competition, that's like price competition with other cloud service providers.

0:14:38.440 --> 0:14:41.560
<v Speaker 3>The other thing is about you know, besides for example,

0:14:41.600 --> 0:14:45.880
<v Speaker 3>besides the demand side, besides coding, what else the AI

0:14:46.200 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 3>like industry could provides.

0:14:48.120 --> 0:14:50.640
<v Speaker 5>Is there a large scenario. I think this is also

0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:51.400
<v Speaker 5>a key question.

0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.040
<v Speaker 3>So I think it's basically, you know, I still a

0:14:54.120 --> 0:14:57.320
<v Speaker 3>demand like and versus like supply issues.

0:14:57.360 --> 0:14:58.040
<v Speaker 5>The demand is.

0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:02.200
<v Speaker 3>Very strong, everything is fine, so you know, my clos

0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:03.880
<v Speaker 3>is they're right now.

0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:06.240
<v Speaker 5>But I think that's we need to like waiting to see.

0:15:08.160 --> 0:15:10.360
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, in terms of wait and see, we left with

0:15:10.400 --> 0:15:12.960
<v Speaker 6>any other unanswered questions at the end of that earning

0:15:13.000 --> 0:15:14.600
<v Speaker 6>school things that you really want to hear a bit

0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:16.040
<v Speaker 6>more clarity on from Ali Baba.

0:15:20.400 --> 0:15:25.680
<v Speaker 3>I think probably that's you know, about the more detailed

0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:26.600
<v Speaker 3>breakdown of.

0:15:26.520 --> 0:15:29.480
<v Speaker 5>What they determine as r C. You know, basically this

0:15:29.520 --> 0:15:32.120
<v Speaker 5>SA is three years. You know, can't reach to break

0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:34.080
<v Speaker 5>hiven points. That's one question.

0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:37.760
<v Speaker 3>The other one is that everybody is focusing on the AI,

0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:40.320
<v Speaker 3>but there are a lot of other moving parts, like

0:15:40.440 --> 0:15:44.880
<v Speaker 3>the e commerce, like their losses in like for delivery.

0:15:45.400 --> 0:15:46.560
<v Speaker 5>I mean, barber is.

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:49.520
<v Speaker 3>A whole group that you know, definitely people can't value

0:15:49.640 --> 0:15:52.240
<v Speaker 3>only on AI. People also need to look at other

0:15:52.320 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 3>things and the the and I think that's the model.

0:15:56.360 --> 0:15:58.080
<v Speaker 5>Capability is also very important.

0:15:58.440 --> 0:16:02.480
<v Speaker 3>I mean, I can't feel that a lot of als

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.800
<v Speaker 3>just to try to say they have very good like

0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:11.600
<v Speaker 3>R and D resources and development capability, but whether that

0:16:11.680 --> 0:16:17.080
<v Speaker 3>can transfer to like the like good models, results.

0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:19.560
<v Speaker 5>Outcome or results, that is something highly upseertain.

0:16:21.360 --> 0:16:23.840
<v Speaker 1>Sean I wanted to talk a bit about and of

0:16:23.880 --> 0:16:27.080
<v Speaker 1>course and Financial at one point was really the crown

0:16:27.200 --> 0:16:30.120
<v Speaker 1>jewel of this company, right and it's been very much

0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:33.920
<v Speaker 1>under the radar for a few years since that appure stalled.

0:16:34.920 --> 0:16:38.160
<v Speaker 1>What do you think of these sort of reasons overtures

0:16:38.200 --> 0:16:41.960
<v Speaker 1>for fund raising? And obviously they're also expanding a lot

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:44.120
<v Speaker 1>more in terms of the AI investment.

0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:50.680
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think and Financial is definitely bit more active

0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.120
<v Speaker 3>in terms of your rights of fund raising. I think

0:16:54.120 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 3>they're also launching some like AI like projects. That is

0:16:58.560 --> 0:17:02.960
<v Speaker 3>something we see actually across the China Internet industry that

0:17:03.520 --> 0:17:06.639
<v Speaker 3>seems like more Chinese intent companies trying to catch up

0:17:06.680 --> 0:17:08.240
<v Speaker 3>with this AI wave.

0:17:08.920 --> 0:17:12.080
<v Speaker 5>And you know, they definitely want to have more like projects.

0:17:12.160 --> 0:17:15.639
<v Speaker 3>But does that mean that and Financial for example, some

0:17:15.680 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 3>people say it's reconsidering no I PO or something. I'm

0:17:19.320 --> 0:17:22.280
<v Speaker 3>not I don't have like specific information about that, but

0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:25.159
<v Speaker 3>I think that's that you can say, that's that's correct.

0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:28.160
<v Speaker 3>The I think the signal is very clear, that's no

0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:31.679
<v Speaker 3>one wants to, you know, get behind in this recent

0:17:31.760 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 3>AI do.

0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:38.560
<v Speaker 1>Whether or not the i peo gets revived, that's obviously

0:17:38.680 --> 0:17:43.879
<v Speaker 1>a regulatory issue. But the seeking of capital, for example,

0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:48.080
<v Speaker 1>does that sort of sidestep the issue of the apio

0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:51.879
<v Speaker 1>being being being stored. Do we see kind of fresh

0:17:51.880 --> 0:17:54.680
<v Speaker 1>capital injections, is being able to make some of these

0:17:54.760 --> 0:17:56.160
<v Speaker 1>units a little bit more compelling?

0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:02.919
<v Speaker 3>Well, I think that's this is purely expectation, and I

0:18:02.960 --> 0:18:07.160
<v Speaker 3>mean you probably, I think that's the what I can

0:18:07.200 --> 0:18:09.760
<v Speaker 3>say that we see that a lot of new companies

0:18:09.920 --> 0:18:12.959
<v Speaker 3>like IPO recently, for example, she is going to IPO,

0:18:13.000 --> 0:18:17.160
<v Speaker 3>so which means that there's definitely more friendly market, uh

0:18:17.240 --> 0:18:21.359
<v Speaker 3>and to this new like internet or new like high

0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:23.840
<v Speaker 3>tech companies. But I think and financial I think the

0:18:23.920 --> 0:18:27.160
<v Speaker 3>story their story is a little bit special. I think

0:18:27.200 --> 0:18:29.480
<v Speaker 3>that you know, as you said, that's the regulation is

0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:33.760
<v Speaker 3>still concerned and the other thing probably that's about their

0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:36.560
<v Speaker 3>own like you know, development, because you know, I think

0:18:36.600 --> 0:18:41.200
<v Speaker 3>their business is also highly a social associated with China macroeconomy.

0:18:41.680 --> 0:18:45.280
<v Speaker 3>And I'm not very sure about their recent detailed operational

0:18:45.320 --> 0:18:47.520
<v Speaker 3>numbers for example, like payment volume, all.

0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:48.280
<v Speaker 5>These kind of things.

0:18:48.640 --> 0:18:51.480
<v Speaker 3>But I assume that they're also facing like high winds

0:18:51.920 --> 0:18:52.840
<v Speaker 3>in terms of growth.

0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.240
<v Speaker 5>So I think that regulation is one thing.

0:18:55.280 --> 0:18:58.640
<v Speaker 3>The other thing that's for example, let's say when they

0:18:58.640 --> 0:19:02.160
<v Speaker 3>are ready to like face to the investors scrutiny, can

0:19:02.200 --> 0:19:06.320
<v Speaker 3>they present a better story? And if yes, and but

0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:08.879
<v Speaker 3>what is that Definitely that we said that they probably

0:19:08.920 --> 0:19:12.320
<v Speaker 3>have like kind of like had winds in their coinisms,

0:19:12.480 --> 0:19:14.960
<v Speaker 3>so well, yeah, be a news story for them. That's

0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:18.720
<v Speaker 3>something that's definitely we need you up like wait and see.

0:19:18.800 --> 0:19:23.240
<v Speaker 6>Yeah, Sean, we've got Ali Baba's Hong Kong listed shares

0:19:23.320 --> 0:19:26.399
<v Speaker 6>up about nine percent over the past year. What's your

0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:28.080
<v Speaker 6>outlook here? Do you have a price target for the

0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:29.800
<v Speaker 6>sock going up?

0:19:31.040 --> 0:19:34.359
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, we have a target price. I think it's something

0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:37.680
<v Speaker 3>that runs like like one hundred eight or on hundred

0:19:37.680 --> 0:19:40.280
<v Speaker 3>and nine or something. We we set the like tacket

0:19:40.320 --> 0:19:42.959
<v Speaker 3>price very high. I think that's the main reason that

0:19:43.000 --> 0:19:45.440
<v Speaker 3>we think that, you know, Ali Baba's strategy in air

0:19:45.520 --> 0:19:49.920
<v Speaker 3>Cloud is something like definitely correct and they are definitely

0:19:50.080 --> 0:19:53.119
<v Speaker 3>the player that we capture a lot of value in

0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:57.399
<v Speaker 3>this AI boom. We recognize the weakness of ecumbers, but

0:19:57.960 --> 0:20:01.920
<v Speaker 3>we think that you know, like insets, you know, this

0:20:02.000 --> 0:20:04.840
<v Speaker 3>is this is something that's you know, bub is trying

0:20:04.880 --> 0:20:07.639
<v Speaker 3>to have Baba has done a lot of things trying

0:20:07.640 --> 0:20:12.639
<v Speaker 3>to you know, like a like face the like hadwinds

0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.360
<v Speaker 3>and also the other driver in the post their losses

0:20:15.440 --> 0:20:18.000
<v Speaker 3>in like your food delivery because they're trying to narrow

0:20:18.000 --> 0:20:21.359
<v Speaker 3>the loss so which we think that's group providers put

0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:22.520
<v Speaker 3>for the EPs croes.

0:20:22.680 --> 0:20:25.960
<v Speaker 2>That was Sean Yang, senior research analyst at Arata Research,

0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:29.520
<v Speaker 2>speaking with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Stroud Watts and Paul

0:20:29.640 --> 0:20:33.680
<v Speaker 2>Allen bringing you their conversation here on the Daybreak Asia Podcast.

0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:38.840
<v Speaker 2>Thanks for listening to today's episode of the Bloomberg Daybreak

0:20:39.000 --> 0:20:42.399
<v Speaker 2>Asia Edition podcast. Each weekday, we look at the story

0:20:42.440 --> 0:20:46.800
<v Speaker 2>shaping markets, finance, and geopolitics in the Asia Pacific. You

0:20:46.840 --> 0:20:50.919
<v Speaker 2>can find us on Apple, Spotify, the Bloomberg Podcast YouTube channel,

0:20:51.080 --> 0:20:54.080
<v Speaker 2>or anywhere else you listen. Join us again tomorrow for

0:20:54.200 --> 0:20:57.679
<v Speaker 2>insight on the market moves from Hong Kong to Singapore

0:20:58.119 --> 0:21:01.840
<v Speaker 2>and Australia. I'm doingtener and this is Bloomberg.

0:21:08.880 --> 0:21:09.400
<v Speaker 1>M hmm