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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: I e. Executive Director Fatty Barrel standing by for us,

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Speaker 2: So thank you very much for your time. Let's start

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Speaker 2: then with your view on prices for oil at least

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Speaker 2: where you see the demand picture heading in the months

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Speaker 2: ahead through this year? Is the demand picture starting and

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Speaker 2: continuing to soften? Where do you see prices by year? Answer?

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Speaker 3: So, this year two hundred twenty four, we expect oil

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Speaker 3: demand groot to be significantly weaker than last year to

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Speaker 3: UNT two hundrey three. The increase we expect about one

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Speaker 3: point two one point three million virus per day, mainly

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Speaker 3: as a result of the slowing down of the economic

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Speaker 3: growth China, but as well and also electrification of the

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Speaker 3: transportation system more electric cars coming in depict This is

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Speaker 3: under the demand side. On the supply side, the growth

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Speaker 3: coming from Americas name the US, Canada, Brazil and Guyana.

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Speaker 3: This growth to or put all together, is more than

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Speaker 3: enough to meet the global oil demand growth. So in

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Speaker 3: the absence of major geopolitical turmoil or major extreme weather events,

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Speaker 3: we would expect rather a comfortable oil market and comfortable

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Speaker 3: moderate price evolution throughout twenty to twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Okay, moderate price evolution throughout twenty twenty four because that

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Speaker 2: supply is there, as you say, from the Americas, but

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Speaker 2: demand is going to be softer, and of course you

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Speaker 2: make that key caveat around geop political risks. Does that

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Speaker 2: take then give us some comfort when it comes to

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Speaker 2: the question of inflation, Fatty, do you think that we

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Speaker 2: are past the big concern at least around the resurgence

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Speaker 2: of inflation when it comes to the energy component and

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Speaker 2: the energy mix in that inflation story.

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Speaker 3: So, at least what I can say if again, if

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Speaker 3: there are no geopolitical escalation in Middle East we are

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Speaker 3: seeing tension growing and then again reducing, and if we

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Speaker 3: don't see any extreme weather events in North America and

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Speaker 3: as where I would say that the oil process remain

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Speaker 3: around current levels would help the inflation, not the further increase,

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Speaker 3: So as such would be a good news for the

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Speaker 3: global economy, especially in the emerging countries.

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Speaker 1: Fatti, It's creaty grouped in London. OPEK plus has time

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Speaker 1: and time again talked about physical tightness in this oil market,

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Speaker 1: and it's that physical tightness that helps them kind of

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Speaker 1: regulate some some of the oil prices too, perhaps a

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Speaker 1: lot of the consuming economies kind of didn't demise to me,

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Speaker 1: to be completely honest, talk to us a little bit

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Speaker 1: about whether the United States an extra supply that you

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Speaker 1: touted distorts the oil picture. Are you concerned at all

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Speaker 1: about oversupply from the US?

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Speaker 2: No?

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Speaker 3: I think the growth coming from United States is that

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Speaker 3: come for the oil markets, because, as I said, the

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Speaker 3: demand is weaker than last year, but still significant one

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Speaker 3: point two one point three million bires per day, and

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Speaker 3: the US bringing a significant amount of oil is a

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Speaker 3: very good news for the consumers, for the global economy,

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Speaker 3: for inflation, as well as coming from Canada, Brazil and Guyana,

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Speaker 3: the Americas all together cover the global oil demand growth

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Speaker 3: and put a downward pressure on the prices and reduce

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Speaker 3: the room of maneuver for the countries who want to

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Speaker 3: control the oil production and consequently the pricess.

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Speaker 1: Is this a good time, though, for that to actually

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Speaker 1: happen in the context of some of the tensions we're

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Speaker 1: seeing in the Red Sea several oil tankers being hit

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Speaker 1: in that part of the world, in addition to longer

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Speaker 1: fuel times, more labor fatty. When do the Red Sea

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Speaker 1: tensions show up more aggressively in the oil price?

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Speaker 3: I think children Ivan, we look at the picture in

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Speaker 3: the Middle East, we don't see any of the major

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Speaker 3: producing countries are affected from those attentions and the transition

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Speaker 3: routes becoming longer. They may have some marginal effect on

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Speaker 3: the process. My very is if we see one or

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Speaker 3: more than one major oil producing countries is directly involved

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Speaker 3: in the current crisis, and if we see escalation of

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Speaker 3: the issue the situation, this may very definitely push the

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Speaker 3: prices up and this will be differently not good news

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Speaker 3: for the global economy.

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Speaker 2: And certainly that is a risk. No doubt that OPEK

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Speaker 2: plus are factoring in. They have their cuts coming through

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Speaker 2: to the end of March. Are you see are you

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Speaker 2: saying compliance with those with those OPEC plus cuts in

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Speaker 2: terms of the output fact in? Do you expect open

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Speaker 2: plus that cartel to push out those carts further into

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Speaker 2: the year?

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Speaker 3: So I think the the by and large there is

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Speaker 3: a good discipline there when we'll look at the numbers

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Speaker 3: and what they are going to decide for the next steps.

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Speaker 3: Of course up to those countries. But as we discussed

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Speaker 3: a few minutes ago, the inflation is a major risk

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Speaker 3: for the global economy, and I think we all need

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Speaker 3: to avoide to take steps which will which would fuel

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Speaker 3: the inflation in including the higher energy process higher oil

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Speaker 3: processes than we have now.

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Speaker 2: What is the amount picture looking like out of China

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Speaker 2: at this point?

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Speaker 3: Chinese demand is weakening compared to last year for two reasons.

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Speaker 3: One the Chinese economy is slova compared to last year,

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Speaker 3: and the second the electrification of the transportation sector. As

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Speaker 3: we speak now, every second car sold in China is

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Speaker 3: an electric car. So therefore, in addition to the slowing

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Speaker 3: down of the economy, demand is getting weaker because of

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Speaker 3: the transportation sector electrifications continuing, and it will continue in

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Speaker 3: China and also beyond.

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Speaker 1: Fatty. A big question around one of the calls that

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Speaker 1: the IEA has made in the past, which that oil

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Speaker 1: demand will actually decrease by twenty thirty in response to

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Speaker 1: some of the clean energy initiatives around the world. Well,

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Speaker 1: since then you have seen several governments around the world

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Speaker 1: pull back on some of those clean energy initiatives simply

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Speaker 1: because they are touted as being too expensive. President Trump

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Speaker 1: itself has been talking about creating more and more growth

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Speaker 1: in the oil sectors within the US, which of course

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Speaker 1: creates a lot of the GDP there talk to us

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Speaker 1: about how the IA is thinking about the effects of

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Speaker 1: a Trump presidency.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. So, first of all, we said you are right,

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Speaker 3: a global oil demand would peak before two huntre to thirty.

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Speaker 3: It will not stop or go down from overnight to zero,

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Speaker 3: but peak before two hundred thirty. For two reasons. One,

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Speaker 3: the clean energy is moving fast, faster than many people realize.

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Speaker 3: Just last year two hundred twenty three, more than eighty

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Speaker 3: percent of all new power plants built in Divert were

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Speaker 3: renewals about five person nuclear power only. The rest for

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Speaker 3: the fears, this is nothing to do with the climate.

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Speaker 3: Point is more because of the cheaper second electric cars,

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Speaker 3: they are booming across the world. For nuclear power, we

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Speaker 3: see a major comeback. They will weaken the global oil

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Speaker 3: demand GROOTE. And Plus, I think we should see what

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Speaker 3: is happening in China. In the last ten years, more

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Speaker 3: than two thirds of the global oil demand GUOTE came

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Speaker 3: from China only, and Chinese economy increased more than six

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Speaker 3: percent per year. And Chinese economy is slowing done and

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Speaker 3: therefore it is a demand. So putting these things together,

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Speaker 3: slower Chinese economy, which is the single most important driver

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Speaker 3: of oil demand growthe and the clineage translation around the world.

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Speaker 3: We think we are going to see before two thirty

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Speaker 3: a peak of oil demand, and we are not the

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Speaker 3: only one. After we said it, several companies, oil and

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Speaker 3: gas companies in Europe repeated the same thing.

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Speaker 2: Okay, so you still see that peak in terms of

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Speaker 2: all amount bites before twenty thirty. When it comes to

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Speaker 2: the transition story, then briefly before we let you go, yes,

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Speaker 2: some oil companies here and you are investing around that

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Speaker 2: that transition, but frankly it's pretty marginal, and the US

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Speaker 2: cancer plants are any doing anything at all. What would

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Speaker 2: you like to see in terms of the policy prescription

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Speaker 2: to encourage those oil majors to do more to fund

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Speaker 2: that transition.

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Speaker 3: So many oil and gas companies, their leaders in Europe,

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Speaker 3: United States and even Middle East elsewhere, they are saying

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Speaker 3: their companies are on Monday going to traditional operations. But

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Speaker 3: for them, climate change creating energy is very important, and

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Speaker 3: when you look at their speeches it must strategic documents.

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Speaker 3: Big chunk of it is dedicated to their efforts. They

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Speaker 3: are claiming they are doing unclean energy. But at the

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Speaker 3: IEA will look at the numbers. When we look at

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Speaker 3: the numbers UH twenty twenty three, only two point five

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Speaker 3: percent of the investment the oil indust oil angage in

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Speaker 3: thus goes the clean energy in ninety seven point five

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Speaker 3: percent UH the fossil fuse. What I wish from them

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Speaker 3: that there is at least a similarity in the how

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Speaker 3: much they dedicate their speech to clean energy and their

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Speaker 3: investment portfolios.