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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our week sixteen Thursday NFL episode. This is

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Speaker 1: the episode where we get feedback from the wise guys

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Speaker 1: who listen to the show. We will make a survivor

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Speaker 1: pick for a listener one of my favorite emailers. We

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Speaker 1: will build our money line Underdog Round Robin. We'll give

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Speaker 1: out our Foxhole bet, our big Ball's Bet of the week.

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Speaker 1: We will narrow down our picks for the free to

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Speaker 1: play Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pig contest. Because,

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Speaker 1: as our old pal Colin Cowherd likes to say, he

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Speaker 1: know ya, holy shit?

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Speaker 2: Where's the title all?

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Speaker 1: If you want to follow along with our official bets,

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Speaker 1: you can check them out on the contest website Favorites

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Speaker 1: dot actionnetwork dot com when we lock them in before

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Speaker 1: kickoff on Sunday, and if you prefer using the award

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Speaker 1: winning Action app, you can also track all the bets.

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Speaker 1: Simon and I lock in by following two accounts, the

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Speaker 1: Faves five and the Favorites Podcast let's bring in my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, MI compadre, my BFF professional better

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Speaker 1: Simon Hunter head O Solomon.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Hot Chad feeling.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why I'm feeling particularly sort of animated

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Speaker 1: and excited to be with you today. I'm feeling nostalgic

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Speaker 1: that we're at the near end of the season and

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Speaker 1: we have made it through a gauntlet of podcasts and work.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'm just feeling nostalgic for the end of the year.

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Speaker 1: Last week, Simon, we were so perfectly aligned. I got

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Speaker 1: the picks in early, we never wavered. It all worked

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Speaker 1: out great this week. Every game we liked on Sunday

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Speaker 1: I had moved by Tuesday, either from professional money or injuries.

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Speaker 1: The pickings are slim. The biggest games of the week

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Speaker 1: have found us on opposite sides. Although I might be

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Speaker 1: coming over to your side. Welcome to the Favorites, the

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Speaker 1: Therapy edition. That's basically where we're at. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to work through a lot of issues together today to

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Speaker 1: get to a final five. As a reminder, the Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast is presented by bet three sixty five. Bet three

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Speaker 1: sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and present

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen

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Speaker 1: and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler or one eight hundred bets off in Iowa terms.

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Speaker 1: Conditioned restrictions apply. All right, Week sixteen kickoff is nearly

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Speaker 1: upon us. No more daily dally. It's time for sharp calls.

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Speaker 2: Hello, who's there?

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Speaker 3: I'm talking rain range telephone range, somebody saying maybe what

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Speaker 3: you do?

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Speaker 2: Man?

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Speaker 3: Silent and we'll go in order. This was a week

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Speaker 3: of a lot of back and forth. I'm the opposite

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Speaker 3: side of a lot of pros here. The boys like

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Speaker 3: the Saints against the Rams tonight, and I just can't

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Speaker 3: get there. But I get their reasoning they think the

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Speaker 3: Saints defense isn't as bad as they've looked, and I

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Speaker 3: think they've just played bad offenses and they've been able

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Speaker 3: to have a very easy schedule. So we'll find out

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Speaker 3: who is right tonight. I think the public is right

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Speaker 3: betting the Rams. But I woke up, I mean an

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Speaker 3: hour ago, and I just checked. Yeah, Evan just put

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Speaker 3: our chat eighty four percent of the tickets on the Rams.

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Speaker 3: But the number at two of the most public books

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Speaker 3: right now has moved from four down to three and

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Speaker 3: a half. So pretty interesting the fact that the money

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Speaker 3: has coming for the professionals on the Saints team.

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Speaker 1: I don't mind being on the Rams side at all here.

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Speaker 1: And I would say, you know, you did a favorite

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Speaker 1: Film Room YouTube exclusive on Kyron Williams. We posted this yesterday.

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Speaker 1: I did Christian mccaff or, you did Kyrien Williams. I

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Speaker 1: thought your breakdown was perfect. I think he can have

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Speaker 1: a dominant game. I think the Rams run away with us.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: My only fear is it's just like when I tell

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Speaker 3: people you're on the opposite side of me. You might

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Speaker 3: be right, but you've gone from a fifty fifty chance

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Speaker 3: no matter what to below forty percent, and that's that's

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Speaker 3: what you're doing here if you're taking the Rams. So

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Speaker 3: you might win tonight, but I'm telling you long term,

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Speaker 3: this is statistically a loser, just because I know the

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Speaker 3: guy's wrong the other side. So I just wanted to

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Speaker 3: bring it up real quick, just because I thought it

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Speaker 3: was interesting where it's like, I think we talked much

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Speaker 3: about it.

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Speaker 2: I thought the Rams were the play and it's just interesting.

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Speaker 3: There are actual professional groups now coming into the Saints Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 3: We'll keep it moving though, not much to say there.

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Speaker 3: Everyone knows the pros are gonna be on Pittsburgh. It's

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Speaker 3: just the play. Yeah. Split on the Chargers, Buffalo. There's

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Speaker 3: people like us who like the Charges at that big number.

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Speaker 3: There's other guys that I talked to there, just like,

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Speaker 3: what do you bet on the Chargers? Like what you

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Speaker 3: don't even know you're getting from stick? The defense is

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Speaker 3: banged up, kind of giving up. It's just a bad team,

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Speaker 3: so totally again why they don't want it. I'm happy

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Speaker 3: we can't put that in our contest.

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Speaker 2: To me too, we.

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Speaker 1: Would have to, and everything about it makes me sick.

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Speaker 1: I haven't bet it yet because i'm sort of just waiting.

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Speaker 1: I'm counting on the public coming in on Saturday and

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Speaker 1: pounding this thing. But yeah, it's terrible.

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Speaker 2: I did.

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Speaker 3: I did talk to the group that I believe were

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Speaker 3: the ones that hammered the Falcons news, and basically my

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Speaker 3: view is they got info early about Heinek, and they

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Speaker 3: hammered it, and I don't think they realized it was

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Speaker 3: going to move as much as it moved. And even they,

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Speaker 3: I mean even the guy I was talking to was like,

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Speaker 3: I mean, the Colts probably a good value now, and

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Speaker 3: I agreed with them. But this is when I think,

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Speaker 3: me and you what, we'll just stay away from right.

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Speaker 3: It's just moved too much in either direction.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I was going to make a case

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Speaker 1: for it. We'll talk about it. I still feel pretty

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Speaker 1: good about the Falcons here.

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Speaker 3: I like Atlanta too. I just don't know what to

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Speaker 3: do with it because it's moved so much. A game

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Speaker 3: me and you loved Tennessee. I do think it is

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Speaker 3: going to be Tannehill, which does make me feel a

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Speaker 3: little better, just because we always talk about those kind

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Speaker 3: of spots of the veteran guy who's giving up on

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Speaker 3: he's had two months now watching someone else play that.

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Speaker 3: I mean, people want to die, but it actually is

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Speaker 3: good for you to watch someone else because you kind

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Speaker 3: of notice little things that you could do differently or better.

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Speaker 3: We're getting that right with Tannehill. Like they're they're begging

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Speaker 3: for Tennessee and money. So a couple of guys I

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Speaker 3: talked to, they're just waiting and they're open to get

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Speaker 3: the three. Once Gino Smith gets fully cleared. They think

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Speaker 3: you'll get the three. I disagreed. I've been taking it

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Speaker 3: to an half because I do think it'll go down

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Speaker 3: as soon as he gets cleared. I think people think

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Speaker 3: it's gonna bounce up, and I just don't. I think

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Speaker 3: the professionals will come in on the Tennessee Titans. But

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Speaker 3: we'll see Genos doesn't been cleared. We already talked about Panthers.

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Speaker 3: We'll break it down again. It's a game I'm like

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Speaker 3: uncomfortable now that I've made my Simon says, but I

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Speaker 3: talked to a couple of guys who like it too,

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Speaker 3: but unfortunately talk to some guys on the other side

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Speaker 3: of it. So that's another split game between the professionals

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Speaker 3: where I thought it was gonna be all pros and

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Speaker 3: the Panthers. Some guys feel like they got really lucky

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Speaker 3: betting the Panthers last week, and this Green Bay team

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Speaker 3: got really unlucky against the Bucks. And this is a

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Speaker 3: nice spot for this Green Bay team. And I just disagree.

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Speaker 3: I disagree with that opinion. So we'll go into that

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Speaker 3: one more. I'll fire these offers because I know, just

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Speaker 3: taking a while Arizona, a game we didn't really talk

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Speaker 3: about much.

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Speaker 2: That's the pros like the I think it was five

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Speaker 2: or four and a half.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's let's skip that one because I I put

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Speaker 1: it into the script. Okay, you talk about is adding

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Speaker 1: because you did talk about it a little bit on Tuesday.

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Speaker 1: But the wise guys like it, then that's just more

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Speaker 1: fodder for the conversation it.

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Speaker 3: I thought it was too big of a number, So

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Speaker 3: it makes sense a game me and chat were split on.

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Speaker 3: I knew the Pros would be on the Ravens. It's

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Speaker 3: just the spot the pros are going to take the Ravens,

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Speaker 3: no surprise the public.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's the game that I've been wavering on, even

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Speaker 1: though I made it my exact decision. You're nervous about

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Speaker 1: your assignment, says I'm nervous about my exact decision. I

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Speaker 1: have reasons why. It's one of the reasons why I'm

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Speaker 1: calling this the therapy session, because I have a lot

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Speaker 1: of reasons why I ended up on the niners that

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Speaker 1: forty eight hours later, I'm like, I made an emotional decision.

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Speaker 3: Yeah maybe, so it wasn't shocking though hearing that the

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Speaker 3: pros like the Ravens. What it is shocking This numbers

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Speaker 3: held a couple five and a halfs out there. I'm

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Speaker 3: seeing one or two books show four and a half,

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Speaker 3: So I guess some pro money's hit it. But my

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Speaker 3: hope is this was going to get the six. I

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Speaker 3: should have known better. It was never gonna get there.

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Speaker 3: Just the pros weren't gonna let it. I thought this

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Speaker 3: would be a more split game. It's really not. It's

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Speaker 3: it's just gonna be public all over the forty nine ers,

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Speaker 3: and what the pros think is what I think. It's like,

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Speaker 3: you're getting one or two free points here. You just

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Speaker 3: take the Ravens and live with the results. So not shocking.

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Speaker 3: And there's a bunch of games that are just split.

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Speaker 3: I mean, like, we don't have that. We're not gonna

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Speaker 3: die too much into it. But yeah, the pro is

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Speaker 3: like the Giants, but it's not like a six figure bet.

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Speaker 3: Most of the guys I talked to are just throwing a

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Speaker 3: little taste on the Giants. That's when I'm happy that

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Speaker 3: me and you really had no opinion on it. I

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Speaker 3: kind of want to stay away from it. The game

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Speaker 3: we talked about a little bit Denver Broncos. You know,

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Speaker 3: they think it's too high. But once again, it's not

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Speaker 3: like it's a big bet for people. It's just an

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Speaker 3: opinion where it's like, you know, I'll be on New England.

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Speaker 2: I get.

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Speaker 3: I wanted to be on Denver honestly because they're at

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Speaker 3: home it's supposed to be a snowy game because I

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Speaker 3: try for us in that position rather than Zappi. But

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Speaker 3: now that it is supposed to be one hundred percent

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Speaker 3: guarantee of snow game, I'll probably just stay away from it.

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Speaker 3: It's it's a game where I already wanted to be

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Speaker 3: on the under. I think it's dropped, Evan maybe from

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Speaker 3: the chat. I'm almost positive dropped since the news came

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Speaker 3: out that the weather. But me and Chad weren't really

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Speaker 3: in love with this one anyway. But we'll probably just

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Speaker 3: end up staying away from it. Now that there's supposed

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Speaker 3: to be like Evan just from the chat, supposed to

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Speaker 3: be really cold with snow, but no real win.

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Speaker 2: So nothing too crazy there.

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Speaker 1: All right. As a reminder, you can catch every episode

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Speaker 1: of The Favorites live on YouTube. For those enjoying on YouTube,

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Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to

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Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. And by the way, reminder,

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Speaker 1: after our huge, huge event earlier, this month's The Favorites

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Speaker 1: podcast returns for another live event to the Shepherd in

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Speaker 1: the Knucklehead in beautiful Hoboken, New Jersey. Wild Card weekend

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Speaker 1: January fourteenth, at Sunday, doors open at four pm. Simon

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Speaker 1: and I will be there. We'll have drinks, we'll have hugs,

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Speaker 1: we'll have sweating live the games that day. We'll record

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Speaker 1: our show live at seven point thirty. We have a

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Speaker 1: second live event that Saturday, Wildcard Watch Party with Stuckey

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Speaker 1: with Chris Raybond with Sean Kerner, also at four o'clock.

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Speaker 1: That's Saturday, January thirteenth. Check out the RSVP for these events.

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Speaker 1: There are links to the RSVP in the episode description.

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Speaker 1: I mean I can't say it enough. I get so

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Speaker 1: nervous for these events, huge social anxiety, huge worry that

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Speaker 1: people aren't going to be there. The last event was

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Speaker 1: incredibly warm and happy and it was great to be

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Speaker 1: with everybody. So I'm looking forward to running it back.

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Speaker 1: All right, we got to get into our games. We

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Speaker 1: got to find our foxhol We've got to find our survivor,

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Speaker 1: at least the survivor we're going to talk about with

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Speaker 1: our emailer. And of course we got to get to

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Speaker 1: the big balls bet of the week. A couple things

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Speaker 1: that Matt Mitchell spoke to our contest overlords about the

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Speaker 1: least popular game for contest picks so far, Washington and

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Speaker 1: New York Jets least popular team this week. A little

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Speaker 1: foreshadowing here, Chicago Bears. All right, Simon, here we go.

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Speaker 1: We gotta find five. The first tup we talked about

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Speaker 1: the other day, Detroit at Minnesota. When we talked about

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Speaker 1: it on Sunday, we were bet in Minnesota. Minnesota plus

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Speaker 1: four and a half, Minnesota plus four, Minnesota plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half. It's down to three. It's a hard

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Speaker 1: one to do. Like I've been thinking about this game.

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Speaker 1: I've been thinking about doesn't it make sense to take

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Speaker 1: Detroit at minus three? Then I listened to the Sunday

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Speaker 1: six pack with the Raymond and Stuckey, and Raymond made

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Speaker 1: a really good point. Jared Goff number one ranked passer

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Speaker 1: when he's not blissed according to Pro Football Focus, number

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Speaker 1: twenty nine when he is. The Vikings defense not not

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Speaker 1: only does it glits practically every passing down, but they've

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Speaker 1: been incredibly effective against the run and incredibly effective against

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Speaker 1: the pass. I'm wavering on our belief that Detroit minus

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Speaker 1: three isn't automatic. We got the number at the right

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Speaker 1: place now side.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that's that's fair.

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Speaker 3: You know that's the only the only reason you're backing

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Speaker 3: the Vikings is because of all the defensive stats. Yea,

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Speaker 3: the defense has been playing incredible this season. You know

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Speaker 3: they're one of those teams that they had one of

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Speaker 3: the worst defense in all football last year. They made

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Speaker 3: a change of their DC and you've seen how good

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Speaker 3: their defense is playing this year. And it's pretty incredible

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Speaker 3: how important coaching is in the NFL. So you know, Chris,

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Speaker 3: Chris has been a Viking better feels like all season, right,

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Speaker 3: I've really been all.

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Speaker 2: Over this Vikings team.

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Speaker 3: And I didn't get it because he was betting them

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Speaker 3: with Dobbs and he was betting bad numbers and it

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Speaker 3: was working because somehow he was making it work for

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Speaker 3: that Vikings team, and then he flamed out. Right now

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Speaker 3: he's their third stringer. They've they've kind of kept rolling

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Speaker 3: despite all these different quarterbacks. It's because of what me

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Speaker 3: and I just talking about is the defense and the

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Speaker 3: scheme they run an offense just all has been working.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, the the pros I talked to, they loved Minnesota.

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Speaker 3: They didn't love him at three. They we talked about,

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Speaker 3: like this number keeps popping three and a half. I

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Speaker 3: mean last night before I went to bed, it was

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Speaker 3: three and a half again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, it moved this morning to three.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, woke up this morning is back then to three.

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Speaker 3: So if you're wondering one side of the pros are

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Speaker 3: on Chad, I just told you, like they like the Vikings,

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Speaker 3: this defense, they have the numbers to.

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Speaker 2: Back it up.

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Speaker 3: I guess I'm still at the point chat which just

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Speaker 3: it's hard for me to do where it's like I'm

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Speaker 3: getting three with golf against a fourth string quarterback.

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Speaker 2: It's tough where it's.

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Speaker 3: Like Okay, say the blitz does work, right, they have

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Speaker 3: golf in a weird position.

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Speaker 2: He's not comfortable.

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Speaker 3: He's still gonna get his like they got a great

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Speaker 3: oc and Ben Johnson like they're gonna make the adjustments right.

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Speaker 2: So I'm with Chris.

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Speaker 3: Maybe this will throw me off and I won't want

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Speaker 3: to take it as much. But I mean, if we

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Speaker 3: get off this call chat, it's two and a half

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Speaker 3: on Detroit, are really going to be mainly enough to

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Speaker 3: pass on that number?

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Speaker 2: I mean it's tough to not take that number.

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Speaker 1: I think that I think the number in the contest

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Speaker 1: is going to be key. Yeah, yeah, I think it's

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Speaker 1: I think it's going to be It's gonna be the

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Speaker 1: defining factor. You know. It's interesting. So, and we've said

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Speaker 1: this a lot going back to the beginning of the year.

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Speaker 1: We gave Brian Daboll so much credit for his ability

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Speaker 1: to for for how he coached the Giants last year,

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Speaker 1: and the Giants and the Vikings were the two teams

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Speaker 1: that won the most one score games, And this year

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Speaker 1: we gave the Vikings no credit, Kevin Stefanski no credit

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Speaker 1: for his coaching ability and putting them in a position

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Speaker 1: to succeed and fighting the regression from last year. It

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Speaker 1: turns out it was Stefanski who really knew how to

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Speaker 1: coach this team up no matter what the circumstances, albeit

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Speaker 1: with a much better defense, although he has a hand

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Speaker 1: in hiring and deciding who the coordinator is, right, Brian

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Speaker 1: dave All hired Mink Martindale Nick Kevin Stefanski went out

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Speaker 1: and got Brian Flores. So I feel like we we

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Speaker 1: didn't give Kevin Stefanski enough credit for his coaching chops

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Speaker 1: when we came into this year. I just want to

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Speaker 1: say that flowers for Kevin Stefanski.

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Speaker 3: Yeah that's fair. You know, they as much I want

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Speaker 3: to give them flowers. They did have some of the

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Speaker 3: most insane players ever.

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Speaker 2: Like that.

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Speaker 3: As soon as you said some of that Bills game

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Speaker 3: popped them. I had that win over the Bills last year.

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Speaker 1: It was just like, dude, the win over the Colts.

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Speaker 3: Yeah right, right, So we had a reason. They say

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Speaker 3: there was gonna be a regression there, but yeah, probably

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Speaker 3: gonna lose. I mean, we got two three weeks to

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Speaker 3: go here, but probably gonna lose this under bet on

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Speaker 3: the Vikings as they're what seven and seven here? So yeah, incredible,

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Speaker 3: incredible coaching job. You're spot on, like the head coach,

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Speaker 3: the DC, all of it. For the Vikings, it's the

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Speaker 3: definition of not having that much talent but making it

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Speaker 3: what it should be, right above what everyone's predicted, because

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Speaker 3: you know it's the NFL, Like all these guys are

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Speaker 3: crazy talented. The difference is so minis school. So it's

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Speaker 3: it's interesting. I mean, and we just had haven't put

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Speaker 3: in here. Golf is spaced the fourth most dropbacks while

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Speaker 3: blitz this season, so the league knows, right, he's been

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Speaker 3: blitzed this year, there's still ten and four. So I

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Speaker 3: do like that staff from Chris. But my guess would

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Speaker 3: be if any team could counter what the Vikings are doing,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be a team like Detroit, right, they know

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Speaker 3: what they need to do here in this position against

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Speaker 3: the blitz where he's.

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Speaker 2: Been facing all season.

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Speaker 3: Everyone knows that's kind of been his achilles heel, right,

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Speaker 3: his whole career is golf rushed.

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Speaker 1: Yep, all right, we'll take a look at that one

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Speaker 1: Washington at the New York Jets. It's another game we

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Speaker 1: talked about the other day, the big news.

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Speaker 2: What's that I said, did we we.

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Speaker 1: Did a little bit. We don't have to spend too

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Speaker 1: much time on it. I don't think it. I don't

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Speaker 1: think it ends up. The big news is basically Aaron

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Speaker 1: Rodgers was activated from IR. Zach Wilson was announced as

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Speaker 1: the starter if he clears the concussion protocol. If not,

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Speaker 1: Frevor Simmeyon is the quarterback. He went fourteen twenty six

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Speaker 1: two picks, one hundred and ten yards in relief against Miami.

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Speaker 1: H Let it be said if we decided because we

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Speaker 1: did like the Jets at minus three, it's only about

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Speaker 1: betting on the defense here. Yes, and the commander is

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Speaker 1: completely flailing offense. But I do not feel any compunction

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Speaker 1: to put this into the contest.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm scared I can't.

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Speaker 3: Do it, but uh through it. It's just it's just

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Speaker 3: hard to back this Jets team where Chad's right, Like,

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Speaker 3: I know, we probably should.

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Speaker 2: It's a good spot for their defense. Sam Howe.

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Speaker 3: I think I could be wrong, but I'm pretty sure

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Speaker 3: he's like, you know, number two or three interceptions number

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Speaker 3: one and getting sacked. He's just been an absolute train

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Speaker 3: wreck as of late. Especially Yeah, expected Jets after being

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Speaker 3: embarrassed right like they got literally embarrassed the week before

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Speaker 3: to come home and put up put up a good

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Speaker 3: game here. But the fear is that they've quit on Salah,

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Speaker 3: so that that's kind of what you don't know.

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Speaker 2: You're betting the unknown.

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Speaker 3: So I'm with Chad, like I wanted to bet the

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Speaker 3: Jets defense at home here, but got nothing, got nothing

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Speaker 3: to do or do with this game.

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Speaker 1: Really, I think it's hard that having the Saturday games,

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Speaker 1: because that that just limits so many, Like we love

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Speaker 1: so many the Saturday games so hard. Green Bay at Carolina,

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Speaker 1: Carolina plus five right now, I bet three six five.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a little bit deeper on this, because we

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Speaker 1: promise we wouldn't do this again to people, and yet

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Speaker 1: here we are doing it again. The good news the

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Speaker 1: good news, Simon. Our luck rankings have the Panthers as

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Speaker 1: the thirty first most unlucky team in the NFL. According

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Speaker 1: to our numbers, they should be a four win team,

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Speaker 1: not a two win team. So there is that. Here's

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Speaker 1: the problem. The Green Bay Packers also very unlucky this year,

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Speaker 1: twenty fourth in our luck rankings, So that means, you know,

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Speaker 1: two bottom ten teams in the luck rankings. Right now,

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Speaker 1: I feel like this is a scale. I think the

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Speaker 1: Panthers are the right side, but I think it's a

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Speaker 1: hard one to It's a hard one to stomach.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and the pushback I got on it from another

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Speaker 3: pros I talked through or they just don't see any

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Speaker 3: of it from Bryce Young where it's like you need

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Speaker 3: to get so lucky to win or cover these games

415
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Speaker 3: when you're back here in Bryce Young, because he's not

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Speaker 3: going to do it for you, Like you're going to

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Speaker 3: need other guys to really step up. And that's asking

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Speaker 3: a lot here, Jordan Love. We've seen him make the throws.

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Speaker 3: I mean last week, Yeah, you had a down week,

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Speaker 3: you still put up what twenty points, which in Bryce

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Speaker 3: s Young's career, that ain't never happening, right, this kid,

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Speaker 3: this kid has to die just to get across ten points.

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Speaker 3: So yeah, I got I get the pushback in your

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Speaker 3: argument against it. It is a it is a back

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Speaker 3: though on this Panthers defense at home, Like we've only

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Speaker 3: seen them really get blown out by Ray teams, right,

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Speaker 3: like the Cowboys came down there. I think we backed

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Speaker 3: it unfortunately and they got blown out, right, they got rolled.

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Speaker 3: But when it's kind of teams that have question marks

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Speaker 3: that aren't as competitive, which as Green Bay teams say

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Speaker 3: what you want, they aren't right, They're not consistent. Their

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Speaker 3: defense is bad, like if you go through that tape.

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Speaker 3: I know they've had some injuries, but I mean they

434
00:21:50,040 --> 00:21:52,680
Speaker 3: could run it anyway they wanted last week. And that's

435
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,080
Speaker 3: what Caroline wants to do with Hubbard, Like Hubbard's been

436
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:57,680
Speaker 3: incredible for them running the ball, not Miles Sanders, the

437
00:21:57,720 --> 00:22:01,000
Speaker 3: guy they paid, which another reason never pay these running backs.

438
00:22:01,000 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 2: But yeah, the Panthers one Chad.

439
00:22:03,440 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 3: I I'm trying not the waiver on it, but it

440
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,400
Speaker 3: does make me uneasy knowing that if we get down

441
00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:11,439
Speaker 3: fourteen to nothing, it is dead like that is a

442
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:13,200
Speaker 3: dead bet. If it's fourteen to nothing at any point

443
00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 3: in this game, We're just not gonna get there with

444
00:22:15,440 --> 00:22:18,919
Speaker 3: this Panthers offense. But I'm gonna stick to back in

445
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,880
Speaker 3: this Panthers defense at home at a big number against

446
00:22:21,960 --> 00:22:24,479
Speaker 3: Jordan Love on the road, I just think it's too

447
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 3: many point two points too high, like there should be three,

448
00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,080
Speaker 3: three and a half. It's still five. I'll take the

449
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,639
Speaker 3: value there. It's just trusting the number and trusting this

450
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 3: Panthers d and knowing that this is by Sunday going

451
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:37,400
Speaker 3: to be one of the most public plays of the week.

452
00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:40,879
Speaker 3: Everyone's gonna be all over Green Bay. So you know,

453
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:43,280
Speaker 3: my thought was a prosn to come in. This was

454
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 3: gonna be down to four by the show. Clearly that's wrong.

455
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,000
Speaker 3: It's still a five. So yeah, my bad for the

456
00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,920
Speaker 3: Simon says, but it was gonna be big balls regardless.

457
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,080
Speaker 2: So you're gonna be in on this one anyway. People.

458
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, by the way, we owe with big balls, we

459
00:22:57,480 --> 00:23:03,040
Speaker 1: owe a foxhole. Have we ever doubled up? Have we

460
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:05,879
Speaker 1: ever had a game that was that was a Simon says,

461
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:11,000
Speaker 1: an exec decision and one of the other two we did.

462
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:12,639
Speaker 3: With you like, I think you had an exact and

463
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 3: we loved it so much we made it a big ball,

464
00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 3: but we said we would never do it again.

465
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: All right, Well, some stats to back us up here, Okay,

466
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 1: Jordan Love is four and two against the spread versus

467
00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,720
Speaker 1: teams above five hundred, two and five against the spread

468
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:31,160
Speaker 1: under five hundred. Panthers average time per drive fourth longest

469
00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 1: in the NFL, behind Dallas, Philadelphia and Buffalo. They eat

470
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 1: the clock. The problem is in the red zone, twenty

471
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:45,000
Speaker 1: ninth in red zone percentage and red zone touchdowns, Bryce Young,

472
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 1: best quarterback in the NFL against the spread when trailing

473
00:23:51,119 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: at half this year, all those things make me feel

474
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 1: a little bit better.

475
00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:58,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, and just we can't avoid it. I hate it,

476
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:01,040
Speaker 3: Like this is what we do. We have to bet

477
00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,679
Speaker 3: a team that has two wins here in December, when

478
00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:05,360
Speaker 3: they're catching over five points at home.

479
00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,920
Speaker 2: It's like I don't need back in them either. Off

480
00:24:07,920 --> 00:24:08,199
Speaker 2: wul win.

481
00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:10,440
Speaker 3: Like that's another thing that's making me pause where it's

482
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 3: like we're backing a team off such a huge emotional win,

483
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:15,320
Speaker 3: basing a team that just got embarrassed and blown out

484
00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:17,600
Speaker 3: at home. I wanted to be on Green Bay, but

485
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 3: the line just never got there, Like the value was

486
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:22,679
Speaker 3: just on Carolina. So as much as people want us

487
00:24:22,680 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 3: to avoid this one, I just I can't do it.

488
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 1: I just had a flood of ideas for the money

489
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:30,240
Speaker 1: line underdog round robin when we were talking about Carolina,

490
00:24:30,600 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 1: and then I put down some other teams and oh

491
00:24:32,960 --> 00:24:34,720
Speaker 1: my god, it's so gross. I can't wait to talk

492
00:24:34,760 --> 00:24:37,639
Speaker 1: about that. Simon. I've got good news for you this

493
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494
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499
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500
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501
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505
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506
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507
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508
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509
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Speaker 1: fifty percent off. All right, you mentioned Atuana, I think

510
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:47,120
Speaker 1: we should have Atlanta in the contest. Atlanta is right

511
00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 1: now one point favorite at home, and my feeling on

512
00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 1: this game is I know it moved and I know

513
00:25:55,960 --> 00:25:58,480
Speaker 1: we bet Atlanta as underdogs. I got them at two

514
00:25:58,520 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: and a half.

515
00:25:59,000 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 2: That's why I feel a bad beat.

516
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you know what, like we talk about this

517
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:04,399
Speaker 1: all the time, right, like we sort of have to

518
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 1: think about the spot and the personnel and the situation

519
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 1: as well as the trends and and you know, people

520
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: even in the chat last week were blown up like

521
00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: you're you're talking too much about the trends. And I

522
00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: get that, but the trends are one part of the system,

523
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,679
Speaker 1: like electrons, as you're thinking about all of these things,

524
00:26:28,119 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 1: and we know that, like the trends are going to

525
00:26:32,160 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: be against a team that started as a underdog and

526
00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,240
Speaker 1: now moved to a favorite, although Evan would point that

527
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:43,000
Speaker 1: the Falcons opened as a favorite, then moved to a dog,

528
00:26:43,119 --> 00:26:48,359
Speaker 1: and moved back to a favorite. So so I'm discounting

529
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:52,879
Speaker 1: the trend a little bit. Okay, I don't mind Taylor

530
00:26:52,920 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 1: Heineke as a one point favorite, and I feel like

531
00:26:58,200 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 1: in this moment right now, Indy is just not that

532
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,600
Speaker 1: good of a team. Like their defense isn't very good.

533
00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:12,480
Speaker 1: They've had some really wins against really bad teams. They've

534
00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 1: beaten the Titans twice, they've beaten the Panthers. They've beaten

535
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,360
Speaker 1: the Bucks, they've beaten the Steelers. Like I think they're

536
00:27:18,359 --> 00:27:20,520
Speaker 1: going on the road against a team that is going

537
00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: to be healthier. One of the reasons we were worried

538
00:27:22,240 --> 00:27:25,879
Speaker 1: about Atlanta last week, while we didn't like them against

539
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: the Panthers, is because their offensive line is incredible and

540
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: a lot of their guys were questionable or out and

541
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 1: so I think their offensive line is going to be

542
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 1: better this week. It just feels like and look, arther

543
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:41,960
Speaker 1: Smith is playing his coaching for his job right now,

544
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: so I say we stick with the Falcons.

545
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,040
Speaker 3: Let the record show if he got fired, I would

546
00:27:51,080 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 3: give everything as an Eagles fan to get him as

547
00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 3: o OC like this man took the corpse of Ryan

548
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:59,320
Speaker 3: Tannehill and drag it to be a one seed. I

549
00:27:59,359 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 3: know that's part of v Abel, right, Rabel's magic, But

550
00:28:02,040 --> 00:28:03,800
Speaker 3: if you go back and look, that was Tannahill's best

551
00:28:03,840 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 3: season ever passing wise, and yeah, a lot of blame

552
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 3: can be put on him, but it's like, but I

553
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,640
Speaker 3: see all the time, if you don't have a quarterback,

554
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,800
Speaker 3: you're kind of dead here. And they don't have a

555
00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,560
Speaker 3: quarterback in Atlanta, and heinike. I'll ride it with you, Chad.

556
00:28:18,600 --> 00:28:23,479
Speaker 3: But it's gonna be it's not gonna be a enjoyable experience. Right,

557
00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:24,800
Speaker 3: we know we're gonna we're gonna be.

558
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:25,480
Speaker 2: It's gonna be.

559
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 3: We're gonna be up seven in the fourth quarter. He'll

560
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:31,760
Speaker 3: throw a pick on his own twenty. Minshew's gonna tie

561
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:33,320
Speaker 3: the game up. I mean, you're gonna both be sitting

562
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,480
Speaker 3: there and be like, this is why it sucks bettering

563
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 3: this Atlanta team. But you're right, Like the Colts have

564
00:28:39,400 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 3: overachieved more than any team of football this year. We

565
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:44,680
Speaker 3: talked about it, like the job Shane Steikin's done, like

566
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:49,320
Speaker 3: the whole thing incredible, Like he probably should win Coach

567
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 3: of the Year with what he's done with the Colts

568
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,440
Speaker 3: this year. Because they don't have talent on defense really, right,

569
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 3: They've had some big injuries. They've had to let go

570
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 3: of some of their best old time veterans just because

571
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 3: they're not good anymore. It's kind of a rebuilding process

572
00:29:02,200 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 3: on that defense and then offense. We already talked about

573
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,360
Speaker 3: like what he's done with Minshew has been incredible.

574
00:29:07,120 --> 00:29:11,560
Speaker 1: Incredible, Minshew Gardner, Minshew, He's got him playing at a

575
00:29:11,560 --> 00:29:16,680
Speaker 1: playoff level. He's got a guy who's got them in contention, Gardner,

576
00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 1: Minshew before the season had won two games as a starter.

577
00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: Like he's tripled his number.

578
00:29:24,600 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 3: So yeah, the thing, the big thing for you for

579
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 3: me is the fact that Pittman might be missing this

580
00:29:28,360 --> 00:29:31,000
Speaker 3: game for the Colts yep. And if you've seen them

581
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,440
Speaker 3: this season, he's been huge for them on third downs.

582
00:29:34,480 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 3: I mean, they really do draw up a lot of

583
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:37,760
Speaker 3: the plays to get him the ball on third down,

584
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:40,720
Speaker 3: just because anytime he gets the ball in any type

585
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,560
Speaker 3: of space, he's going to make a big play and

586
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,720
Speaker 3: he can make the first guy miss. Usually he's so big,

587
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 3: strong and fast. He hasn't practiced all week. He might

588
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,920
Speaker 3: miss this game, den Shaid, I would automatically be all

589
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 3: in on this one. Like that would give me a

590
00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,480
Speaker 3: ton of confidence because that's really taken away a huge

591
00:29:56,600 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 3: key to their offense. What Minshew needs, right, Minshew needs playmaker.

592
00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 3: Because we say it all the time, Minshew, He's gonna

593
00:30:02,640 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 3: have a bunch of weaknesses, and one of the strength

594
00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:07,160
Speaker 3: that was getting the ball into the best player's hands.

595
00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 3: So I could be convinced that Atlanta, like you only know,

596
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,680
Speaker 3: I bet Atlanta. I like Atlanta I liked them in

597
00:30:12,720 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: the spot, Like you just said this, this is the

598
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:18,760
Speaker 3: classic thing of the whole season. They know this is it,

599
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:20,920
Speaker 3: Like they have to win this to keep up with

600
00:30:20,960 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 3: the Bucks and to keep up with the Saints for

601
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 3: their division.

602
00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:27,720
Speaker 2: So this is their season. So I'm right there with you.

603
00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 3: It's like, I love these kind of spots here in

604
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 3: late December where it's like it's do or die. That's

605
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 3: your right here is we're back in Heinike as a

606
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 3: favorite simon.

607
00:30:36,560 --> 00:30:39,479
Speaker 1: As you were talking about it when I first proposed it,

608
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: you were like, ah, this is a terrible idea. How

609
00:30:42,240 --> 00:30:44,760
Speaker 1: do I tell Chad I want to I want to

610
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:46,040
Speaker 1: be with my guy on this.

611
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:47,440
Speaker 2: Well avoid it?

612
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 1: How do I tell him? And then like as you

613
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,720
Speaker 1: were talking, You're like, wait a second, Wait a second,

614
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 1: this totally makes sense. It's exactly what we should do,

615
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:58,440
Speaker 1: which is how I felt. It's how I felt when

616
00:30:58,480 --> 00:31:00,840
Speaker 1: I was doing my notes last night in this morning, like,

617
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 1: oh my god, we got to take the Falcons in

618
00:31:03,920 --> 00:31:06,440
Speaker 1: the contest. I can't post Yeah, I can't believe. We

619
00:31:06,520 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 1: have to do it all right right now. We're going

620
00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:09,800
Speaker 1: to talk about it after because look, we're going to

621
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: put our picks in after the show, and then we'll

622
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:14,200
Speaker 1: evaluate a gun on Sunday, and that's when we'll get

623
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: a chance to see Pittman and his impact. He's in

624
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:20,920
Speaker 1: the concussion protocol right now, all right, Seattle at Tennessee.

625
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:24,600
Speaker 1: We don't spend too much time on this, Like, look,

626
00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 1: you're selling high on Seattle, you're buying low on Tennessee.

627
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:31,120
Speaker 1: Vrabel as a dog twenty six and twenty eight straight

628
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 1: up as a dog thirty twenty three and one against

629
00:31:34,000 --> 00:31:37,400
Speaker 1: a spread in his career fifty seven percent. Like he's

630
00:31:37,400 --> 00:31:40,480
Speaker 1: one of the most profitable coaches the past twenty years.

631
00:31:40,800 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 1: We're just taking Tennessee.

632
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:44,440
Speaker 2: Are we making this big balls? By of the week?

633
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:53,240
Speaker 1: I would do it big balls better than week Tennessee Titans.

634
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:55,760
Speaker 1: We're rolling with Nashville.

635
00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 3: A pretty interesting game that I'm across the board, Like

636
00:31:59,440 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: I'm looking the actual app right now. It's minus one

637
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,000
Speaker 3: point fifteen for the minus two and a half for

638
00:32:04,080 --> 00:32:04,800
Speaker 3: the Seattle.

639
00:32:04,880 --> 00:32:06,920
Speaker 2: So if you do think.

640
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 3: This could get the three, I can understand if you

641
00:32:09,200 --> 00:32:11,520
Speaker 3: want to wait, But I just don't think it's gonna happen.

642
00:32:11,520 --> 00:32:13,760
Speaker 3: I just I do think this will come down before kickoff.

643
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 3: So I've been grabbing the two and a half just

644
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 3: because of that. I just don't don't see it getting

645
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,320
Speaker 3: at the three. But yeah, if it does, that'd be great,

646
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 3: But I just can't see it here where Seattle after

647
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:30,480
Speaker 3: that huge win Gina Smith forcing himself back in. Yeah,

648
00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 3: it's just just historically this is usually a spot that

649
00:32:33,840 --> 00:32:36,040
Speaker 3: Seattle will lose, and this is the kind of game

650
00:32:36,080 --> 00:32:40,960
Speaker 3: that the betting public they're going to hammer the Seattle team.

651
00:32:41,000 --> 00:32:45,200
Speaker 3: I mean, Tennessee couldn't have a more embarrassing loss last week, right,

652
00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 3: we already talked about that. So the fact that actually

653
00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:52,800
Speaker 3: it's actually pretty split in our app the betting and

654
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,400
Speaker 3: the tickets right now, which I'm actually pretty surprised by.

655
00:32:55,920 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 3: But at one of the more public books out there,

656
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 3: it's eighty percent of the ticket all right, I'm sorry,

657
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 3: ninety percent of the tickets right now are on Seattle.

658
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,040
Speaker 3: So they're shaped up people with the more public teams

659
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,080
Speaker 3: of the week grabbing the minus two and a half.

660
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:16,920
Speaker 1: I don't know how I didn't make the exec decision Tennessee.

661
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:21,720
Speaker 1: That was you know, I'm blinded by emotion. Terrible, terrible

662
00:33:21,800 --> 00:33:22,680
Speaker 1: call on my part.

663
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:25,640
Speaker 2: It's late, man, it's week fifteen, it's.

664
00:33:25,520 --> 00:33:28,040
Speaker 1: Week fifteen, like and like some of these futures, I'm

665
00:33:28,080 --> 00:33:31,440
Speaker 1: sorry sixteen, Week sixteen, I'm not going to lie to you,

666
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: and we'll get to this, the Christian McCaffrey future. Like,

667
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:37,560
Speaker 1: I'm just so excited about that opportunity. It's in my head.

668
00:33:37,600 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 1: But look, we like Tennessee. It's our big balls better

669
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 1: of the week. Another game that we liked, that you

670
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 1: liked all the way back on Sunday night. I didn't

671
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,680
Speaker 1: have a strong opinion about it. I'm starting to feel

672
00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:51,920
Speaker 1: better about it. For lack of any true games that

673
00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:55,480
Speaker 1: we any gains, we truly love Dallas Cowboys plus one

674
00:33:55,480 --> 00:33:57,840
Speaker 1: and a half. I did bet Dallas Cowboys this morning.

675
00:33:59,080 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 1: So who lose by seventeen or more playing a team

676
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:06,520
Speaker 1: that won by seventeen or more the previous week are

677
00:34:07,560 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 1: fifty against the spread the past twenty years, two teams

678
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:18,320
Speaker 1: fit that criteria this week, Los Angeles Chargers Dallas Cowboys.

679
00:34:19,560 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 2: I wish I could love it. I bet it. I

680
00:34:21,360 --> 00:34:24,960
Speaker 2: like the Cowboys, I'm betting them. But love is tough.

681
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 2: It's just we just don't know with either of these teams.

682
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 3: Like we say al the time, the Cowboys haven't beat anyone,

683
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 3: especially on the road this year, and this is a

684
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:36,840
Speaker 3: huge test for them, and then same goes for Miami.

685
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 3: But what Chad said is why I like Dallas where

686
00:34:39,280 --> 00:34:41,640
Speaker 3: it's like they just went through a week a hell

687
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:44,279
Speaker 3: for practice and they should be fired up for this game.

688
00:34:44,320 --> 00:34:47,799
Speaker 3: Where Miami they're gonna be feeling pretty good all week, right,

689
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 3: Like this is gonna be smoke plump their butt all

690
00:34:50,800 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 3: week and matchup wise, you know, the fear here for

691
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,160
Speaker 3: me would be we just saw the Cowboys get absolutely

692
00:34:59,239 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 3: gashed by James Cook in that run offense. Now we

693
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 3: have Miami, one of the best running teams in all football,

694
00:35:05,120 --> 00:35:08,800
Speaker 3: playing against them, Like that's a quick quick turnaround for Dallas.

695
00:35:08,880 --> 00:35:11,640
Speaker 3: Have to fix that, Uh, fix those holes right now

696
00:35:11,680 --> 00:35:14,520
Speaker 3: in their defense. So I get I get the split,

697
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:16,279
Speaker 3: Like again, why I talked to a couple of pros where

698
00:35:16,280 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 3: they're like Miami. I just feel as chat fields where

699
00:35:18,800 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 3: it's like you just either bet Dallas, you just don't

700
00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:23,000
Speaker 3: pick aside in this game. It's like that's that's the

701
00:35:23,040 --> 00:35:26,560
Speaker 3: logical side, that's the side the trends will like. Matchup wise,

702
00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:29,520
Speaker 3: it feels like Dallas is just a little bit ahead

703
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:34,600
Speaker 3: of where Miami's at just from the standpoint of, you know,

704
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:37,839
Speaker 3: I kind of trust Dallas' defense more.

705
00:35:38,160 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 2: I trust, obviously Dak more than I do to A

706
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 2: for some for some reason, I.

707
00:35:41,800 --> 00:35:44,879
Speaker 3: Don't know why, but I do, just because I feel

708
00:35:44,920 --> 00:35:47,040
Speaker 3: like Dak in these kind of spots, he does usually

709
00:35:47,040 --> 00:35:50,080
Speaker 3: bounce back where Miami they've kind of disappointed in these

710
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:53,480
Speaker 3: kind of positions. So, yeah, if you're a Miami s fan,

711
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,560
Speaker 3: it's this is kind of a big deal, right You

712
00:35:56,560 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 3: guys need to win this one to believe in your

713
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 3: team could do anything in the playoffs. And same goes

714
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 3: for Dallas, where it's like they've just been so disappointed

715
00:36:03,920 --> 00:36:04,800
Speaker 3: against these teams.

716
00:36:05,960 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 2: That's what sucks about trying to make us one of

717
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 2: our five chat.

718
00:36:08,080 --> 00:36:10,600
Speaker 3: It's like I can already see us kicking ourselves and

719
00:36:10,640 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 3: being like, why did There's so so many other ugly dogs.

720
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,279
Speaker 2: We like, why did we force in Dallas here where

721
00:36:15,320 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 2: it's like such.

722
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,360
Speaker 1: A we don't have to, we don't have to, Like

723
00:36:18,719 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: I think we're I think we're getting to a point

724
00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:25,760
Speaker 1: where there might be six games that that we're talking

725
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: about and four that we feel good about, and two

726
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,600
Speaker 1: that we're gonna have to make a decision on. Yeah,

727
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: it's Dallas is a coin flip.

728
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:39,279
Speaker 3: To me, Yeah, like Dallas cointh where I liked it.

729
00:36:39,680 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 3: I told you I was just hoping I was gonna

730
00:36:41,120 --> 00:36:43,920
Speaker 3: get to two. The pros are never gonna let that happen, right,

731
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 3: I'm seeing some books now I think I haven't even

732
00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 3: put in the chat where it's like it's there's a

733
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:50,759
Speaker 3: bunch of ones popping up across the board now. So yeah,

734
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 3: I guess the pros like Dallas.

735
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 2: Like we do.

736
00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 3: But this, this, this number is good like this, this

737
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 3: is a coin flip game. It should just be a

738
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 3: pick remnus one on either side. So it's the number

739
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 3: is right where it should be.

740
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,080
Speaker 1: When two teams meet, winning by seven plus points per

741
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,800
Speaker 1: game on the year in November or later, the favorite

742
00:37:09,200 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: forty one percent against the spread the past twenty years.

743
00:37:12,600 --> 00:37:19,160
Speaker 1: That includes Miami, that includes San Francisco. So when we

744
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 1: talk about trends, because I think it's an important topic

745
00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 1: to me, the trend is to help compliment a lean

746
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:31,360
Speaker 1: or walk me back from a position where I'm not

747
00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 1: doing my best research and I can't figure put my

748
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 1: finger on it, and the trend will help me walk

749
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,240
Speaker 1: away from a bad decision. It is not the reason

750
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:44,440
Speaker 1: to make the bet. It's sort of a it's the

751
00:37:44,480 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 1: final layer of the cake that we're building, and if

752
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,719
Speaker 1: I don't have it, I'm still going to enjoy the cake,

753
00:37:51,680 --> 00:37:54,760
Speaker 1: but it just makes it a little bit more comfortable

754
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: for me.

755
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say I find them fun. The biggest

756
00:37:59,880 --> 00:38:01,560
Speaker 3: thing they're trying to get PEP. There's so many shows

757
00:38:01,600 --> 00:38:03,400
Speaker 3: out there that are going to give out tons and

758
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 3: tons of numbers, and this is this guy's get off

759
00:38:06,280 --> 00:38:07,640
Speaker 3: speed on the edge, and this is why he is

760
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:11,440
Speaker 3: a better opportunity to get sacks than this offensive lineman

761
00:38:11,480 --> 00:38:13,279
Speaker 3: who's get off speed is this on the other line? Like,

762
00:38:13,440 --> 00:38:14,799
Speaker 3: I try not to do all of that because it's

763
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,759
Speaker 3: going to be boring to people over a course of

764
00:38:17,160 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 3: eighteen weeks of the season.

765
00:38:19,120 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 2: We're trends.

766
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:23,040
Speaker 3: It's kind of like the dumb person version of we

767
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 3: can give you these stats. They're easy, they're smooth, especially

768
00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 3: when we get them from Evan, where it's like we

769
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:30,520
Speaker 3: can really make them very simple for everyone and it's

770
00:38:30,560 --> 00:38:32,160
Speaker 3: easy to wrap a head around it, where it's like

771
00:38:32,480 --> 00:38:36,279
Speaker 3: here's this number, here's a situation, this is how over time,

772
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,480
Speaker 3: how it plays out. That's what I like about trends.

773
00:38:38,520 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: But yeah, people, if you're near to the show me

774
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:43,520
Speaker 3: and chat out. I don't think ever make bets just

775
00:38:43,560 --> 00:38:46,399
Speaker 3: solely based off a trend, but if it's a trend

776
00:38:46,440 --> 00:38:48,880
Speaker 3: that matches up with our opinion idea where it's like

777
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 3: we like this number. Now, Evan's giving me a stat that,

778
00:38:51,840 --> 00:38:54,279
Speaker 3: you know, the Mahomes stat. Mahomes is whatever it was

779
00:38:54,360 --> 00:38:56,879
Speaker 3: nineteen and six against the spread when he's a dog

780
00:38:57,000 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 3: or under a three point favorite.

781
00:38:59,239 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 2: That's real.

782
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:01,600
Speaker 3: That's something to me and Chad like, we're going to

783
00:39:01,760 --> 00:39:04,359
Speaker 3: use long term because we know it's a winner as

784
00:39:04,360 --> 00:39:06,640
Speaker 3: long as that matches up back in the number we like.

785
00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:09,680
Speaker 3: So those are just you know, end all be all trends.

786
00:39:09,680 --> 00:39:12,759
Speaker 3: It's just a simple version of us giving you, you know,

787
00:39:12,920 --> 00:39:14,959
Speaker 3: these numbers about why we might be on one side

788
00:39:15,000 --> 00:39:16,280
Speaker 3: because the trends back.

789
00:39:16,120 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: It probably worth it. At some point we should do this,

790
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,759
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell in the offseason, like remind people what we're

791
00:39:21,840 --> 00:39:25,800
Speaker 1: thinking about when we like first pinpoint games. I'm looking

792
00:39:25,840 --> 00:39:30,840
Speaker 1: at market overreaction. I tend to lean to look for

793
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:35,280
Speaker 1: are their home underdogs. Are there teams that have recently

794
00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:37,959
Speaker 1: been blown out that are playing teams that recently blew

795
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:41,040
Speaker 1: someone out. Like to me, it's all about line inflation,

796
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:43,080
Speaker 1: and like, is there going to be that halfpoint point

797
00:39:43,160 --> 00:39:48,839
Speaker 1: value in the line. For example, the Chicago Bears are

798
00:39:48,840 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 1: hosting the Arizona Cardinals. You said the other day we

799
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 1: should be taking the Cardinals. I was a little bit

800
00:39:54,840 --> 00:39:58,280
Speaker 1: blind to it in the moment. I have some breaking

801
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 1: news here, did some research. I'm a reporter, as you know,

802
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:08,719
Speaker 1: my Chicago contingent who you know for shadow reasons we

803
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:13,320
Speaker 1: should be running the Bears. We've decided to trade Justin Fields.

804
00:40:13,840 --> 00:40:16,040
Speaker 1: We haven't announced it to the world yet. Justin Field

805
00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:17,360
Speaker 1: is still going to play, is going to finish the

806
00:40:17,360 --> 00:40:20,280
Speaker 1: season with us. And we decided, Kayleb Williams, we should

807
00:40:20,280 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 1: be the number one pick that we take, and we

808
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,640
Speaker 1: decided we're going to trade Justin Fields to the Atlanta Falcons.

809
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:29,240
Speaker 1: Did some reporting. It's what I do the market. According

810
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 1: to an NFL executive, fourth Fields will be a second

811
00:40:33,200 --> 00:40:35,680
Speaker 1: round draft pick and a fourth round draft pick. I

812
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 1: think we should get that from the Falcons, and I

813
00:40:37,280 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 1: think we should also get one of their excellent interior linemen.

814
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 1: That's my opinion. Meanwhile, like you said, we take the

815
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:45,759
Speaker 1: Cards here.

816
00:40:48,200 --> 00:40:51,919
Speaker 3: Yeah, hopefully you got the four and a half. It's

817
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,560
Speaker 3: just the Bears have been bled, have been better. They've

818
00:40:55,600 --> 00:41:00,319
Speaker 3: been playing much better too than the Cardinals. But are

819
00:41:00,320 --> 00:41:04,360
Speaker 3: they worthy of being a minus four favorite at home? No,

820
00:41:04,600 --> 00:41:06,160
Speaker 3: This is a team that me and Chat talk about.

821
00:41:06,200 --> 00:41:09,400
Speaker 3: They get these leads, they're definitely a better team on paper,

822
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 3: but they can't hold these leads like they struggle, especially

823
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:13,720
Speaker 3: in the fourth quarter.

824
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 2: We've seen them have a couple games and they just

825
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 2: let teams come back in It.

826
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,040
Speaker 3: So way too big of a number, especially for Kyler Murray,

827
00:41:21,040 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 3: who is also auditioning to be probably on a new

828
00:41:23,920 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 3: team next year, which again nothing said in Stone we

829
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:31,160
Speaker 3: talked this offseason. I heard a bunch of rumors that

830
00:41:31,200 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 3: they were trying to move them and people couldn't make

831
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 3: the money work because it was like fifty million against

832
00:41:35,160 --> 00:41:38,680
Speaker 3: the dead cap. And you know, Kyler to me is

833
00:41:38,719 --> 00:41:43,359
Speaker 3: still a very highly elite talent player, even when he's

834
00:41:43,400 --> 00:41:45,319
Speaker 3: got a crap team there in Arizona. I mean, they're

835
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 3: always still fighting, you know, against a really good point

836
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:50,280
Speaker 3: Natters defense.

837
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:52,200
Speaker 2: Last week, he was moving the.

838
00:41:52,120 --> 00:41:56,880
Speaker 3: Ball pretty well Arizona, Like they're they're just a team

839
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:01,960
Speaker 3: that you know, I get why the public is totally

840
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,280
Speaker 3: off of them, but I am shocked how the public

841
00:42:04,360 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 3: is coming so heavy on the Bears in this position,

842
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 3: Like it's just a team that me and you talk

843
00:42:10,000 --> 00:42:12,400
Speaker 3: all the time when they're a dog, especially over three points.

844
00:42:12,400 --> 00:42:13,759
Speaker 3: We love them because we know they're gonna be in

845
00:42:13,760 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 3: a close team, close game. Now they're a favorite at

846
00:42:17,200 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 3: minus four. It just feels like that's too much for

847
00:42:19,440 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 3: a BEARSS team that doesn't really deserve that kind of respect.

848
00:42:21,640 --> 00:42:24,799
Speaker 3: So a little scary in the fact that I've heard

849
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 3: for a couple of games, this feels like a professional

850
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 3: trap where like it's just gonna be pro money being

851
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 3: sucked in in here on Arizona.

852
00:42:32,080 --> 00:42:33,080
Speaker 2: It's no public money.

853
00:42:33,080 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 3: It just feels a little weird where they're giving us

854
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:37,440
Speaker 3: so many points, like why is this not three?

855
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,000
Speaker 2: Why are they giving us the extra four and a

856
00:42:40,040 --> 00:42:42,160
Speaker 2: half four? So that's my only thing.

857
00:42:42,239 --> 00:42:44,640
Speaker 3: I'm a little weary on it, where it's like they

858
00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 3: know what they're doing, they know like guys like me

859
00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:48,359
Speaker 3: are gonna be sucked in on this number.

860
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:49,319
Speaker 2: So definitely a game.

861
00:42:49,320 --> 00:42:52,239
Speaker 3: I'm I'm I'm happy to bet maybe make one of

862
00:42:52,239 --> 00:42:54,080
Speaker 3: our five, but I'm definitely a little weary of the

863
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,000
Speaker 3: four because it's such a big number for this Chicago

864
00:42:57,040 --> 00:42:58,279
Speaker 3: team to be catching minus four.

865
00:42:58,360 --> 00:43:00,239
Speaker 2: It's crazy.

866
00:43:00,239 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 1: Fifteen five and two against the spread on.

867
00:43:01,920 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 2: The road like that, That's what I like.

868
00:43:05,560 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 1: All right. So look, I made the San Francisco forty

869
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:11,440
Speaker 1: nine ers, who are five point favorites at home against

870
00:43:11,440 --> 00:43:18,200
Speaker 1: Baltimore my executive decision. It may have been an emotional decision.

871
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 1: In fact, it's purely an emotional decision. I just don't

872
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: want to be rooting against Christian McCaffrey and our twenty

873
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 1: five to one futures MVP bet. Knowing that he's got

874
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,680
Speaker 1: to have a massive game and the Niners need to win,

875
00:43:33,320 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: that bet is worth more to me than the amount

876
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,759
Speaker 1: that we would potentially bet on this game or the

877
00:43:39,840 --> 00:43:43,279
Speaker 1: value of this pick, even though I know in my

878
00:43:43,440 --> 00:43:46,920
Speaker 1: head Baltimore is the right call.

879
00:43:47,120 --> 00:43:49,360
Speaker 3: So that's that might be the most amateur you've sounded

880
00:43:49,360 --> 00:43:52,799
Speaker 3: this season, Chad talking about your point, and I love it.

881
00:43:52,920 --> 00:43:54,440
Speaker 2: I think I'm on the same boat where I want

882
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:55,319
Speaker 2: the MVP to come through.

883
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,759
Speaker 3: Dude, But I have I don't know, say I have

884
00:43:58,880 --> 00:44:02,799
Speaker 3: five or six thousand hole invested in McCaffrey to get MVP,

885
00:44:02,840 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 3: which would be a nice payday if it hits. I'm

886
00:44:05,480 --> 00:44:09,120
Speaker 3: gonna have what ten times that amount this week on

887
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:11,719
Speaker 3: the Ravens. So it's like like I love futures, I

888
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,040
Speaker 3: love them to come through, but you talk to any professional,

889
00:44:14,120 --> 00:44:17,480
Speaker 3: it's like, I don't give a damn about those futures.

890
00:44:17,520 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 3: I want to win this week, this game. It's such

891
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 3: a crapshoot with those futures that it's like, I get

892
00:44:23,600 --> 00:44:26,160
Speaker 3: where you're coming from, But anyone listening to this, you

893
00:44:26,200 --> 00:44:27,439
Speaker 3: cannot think that way.

894
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:28,600
Speaker 2: Ever when you're betting.

895
00:44:28,760 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 1: It's just I made I admitted it.

896
00:44:31,440 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I'm just letting people know where it's like,

897
00:44:34,440 --> 00:44:36,520
Speaker 3: you can't think that way. Maybe in Week eighteen, right,

898
00:44:37,239 --> 00:44:39,239
Speaker 3: we take positions and we hedge. I mean last year

899
00:44:39,440 --> 00:44:42,680
Speaker 3: was we had the dream of all dream scenario. We

900
00:44:42,960 --> 00:44:45,320
Speaker 3: basically had the Jaguars at ten to one, eleven O

901
00:44:45,400 --> 00:44:47,640
Speaker 3: one seven, eight to one to win the division. Last

902
00:44:47,719 --> 00:44:50,080
Speaker 3: year they played against the Titans in the final week

903
00:44:50,120 --> 00:44:53,520
Speaker 3: of the season and it's the easiest edge of our life.

904
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,719
Speaker 3: We literally took whatever it was, half the amount of

905
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 3: money we were gonna win easy hedge, put it all

906
00:44:59,640 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 3: on the hes at whatever that was plus six plus seven.

907
00:45:03,080 --> 00:45:04,920
Speaker 2: The game landed on four or five.

908
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:07,759
Speaker 3: Me and Chad hit our Tennessee on the number, and

909
00:45:07,840 --> 00:45:11,839
Speaker 3: we hit the Jags season long. So it's a little

910
00:45:11,840 --> 00:45:14,560
Speaker 3: harder to hedge these MVP bets. But at the same time,

911
00:45:14,600 --> 00:45:17,239
Speaker 3: it's like, don't have to worry about this week. We'll

912
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:19,160
Speaker 3: deal with that in week eighteen. Maybe we'll be able

913
00:45:19,160 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 3: to find a position to take. But yeah, I'm happy

914
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:23,440
Speaker 3: you came around in the Ravens. It's like it's not

915
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 3: a play I'm going crazy about where It's like you

916
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 3: got to take the Ravens. No, the forty niners are incredible.

917
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 3: We could easily get blown out here. It's more that

918
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 3: we're just playing the number. That what I said, like

919
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,879
Speaker 3: this numbers too inflated. Evan gave us the trends about

920
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,000
Speaker 3: the Ravens as an underdog. Lamar is an underdog.

921
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:41,000
Speaker 2: He's been very profitable, especially in this spot where the

922
00:45:41,080 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 2: number is this big. He's been good to us. I mean,

923
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:45,560
Speaker 2: me and Chat talked about like the time we won

924
00:45:46,040 --> 00:45:46,840
Speaker 2: on the Chiefs.

925
00:45:47,160 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 3: We won by like I think a point, Like we

926
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 3: got really lucky and covered with the Chiefs against the Ravens,

927
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 3: and that's why I remember the game because I remember

928
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 3: sweating it really hard, and me and Chad needed it

929
00:45:55,880 --> 00:45:59,320
Speaker 3: think for a five and oer week, and Lamar scares

930
00:45:59,360 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 3: the hell out of you, like he's always putting his

931
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:02,160
Speaker 3: team in the best position.

932
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,000
Speaker 2: So that's why we're doing it right.

933
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 3: We're getting a battle tested veteran quarterback here against as

934
00:46:08,760 --> 00:46:10,880
Speaker 3: much I want to say pretty, he's not tested.

935
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:13,160
Speaker 2: He's not like. He's kind of a.

936
00:46:13,080 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 3: Guy that this year when they had that bad run

937
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 3: they lost those three games, he was concussed they didn't

938
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,160
Speaker 3: have Trent Williams. I think Deebo might have been out

939
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 3: of those games too. He's really had when all the

940
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 3: pieces are there. He's been really, really dominant in party.

941
00:46:27,320 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 3: So totally get the hesitation for people out there. They're like,

942
00:46:30,400 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 3: they don't they were with Chad and they want to

943
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:33,600
Speaker 3: have been in the forty nine er side.

944
00:46:33,920 --> 00:46:35,480
Speaker 2: I know some pros are on the forty nine er side.

945
00:46:35,520 --> 00:46:37,360
Speaker 3: I can tell you most of the pros I talked to,

946
00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:39,960
Speaker 3: most of the guys betting this, they're on me and

947
00:46:40,040 --> 00:46:43,120
Speaker 3: Chad or I guess Chad's side. Now the Ravens. It's

948
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:46,240
Speaker 3: like you just backed the Ravens here in Long term.

949
00:46:46,719 --> 00:46:48,240
Speaker 3: We say all the time, this will be a winner.

950
00:46:48,360 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 3: The trends back it up. It's a good spot to

951
00:46:50,680 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 3: back them. So it's a game that I wasn't sure

952
00:46:53,800 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 3: was gonna be our five because we were split on it.

953
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 3: I felt like in my head I was getting ready

954
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:58,879
Speaker 3: for you to be like, No, I got to force

955
00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 3: in the forty nine ers and it was like, all right,

956
00:47:00,640 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 3: I'll let chat put in this four nineers. But no,

957
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:05,319
Speaker 3: it makes me happy to know you've come around. And yeah,

958
00:47:05,320 --> 00:47:06,800
Speaker 3: if we can get five and a half in contest,

959
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:08,960
Speaker 3: that'd be amazing. For five and a half on the Ravens.

960
00:47:09,239 --> 00:47:10,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, we'll check it out. And look, this is a

961
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:13,120
Speaker 1: Monday night game, so a reminder, we don't have an

962
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:15,279
Speaker 1: episode on Sunday for Christmas Eve. We want you all

963
00:47:15,360 --> 00:47:17,719
Speaker 1: already we spend it with your families. But the good

964
00:47:17,719 --> 00:47:21,360
Speaker 1: news is we can talk about it on Tuesday. On Tuesday,

965
00:47:21,880 --> 00:47:23,719
Speaker 1: one of us will have been right. Both of us

966
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 1: will have been right, one of us will have been wrong,

967
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:26,799
Speaker 1: one of us will have been wrong.

968
00:47:27,080 --> 00:47:30,319
Speaker 3: Right on such a role that even Sata himself flew

969
00:47:30,360 --> 00:47:32,520
Speaker 3: in to see if they were for real. And on

970
00:47:32,600 --> 00:47:36,399
Speaker 3: Christmas Day they made believers of even the forty nine ers.

971
00:47:36,560 --> 00:47:39,040
Speaker 1: We're gonna win regardless because we're going to get great

972
00:47:39,120 --> 00:47:42,880
Speaker 1: content on Tuesday from the Monday night game. Before we

973
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 1: get to our money line Underdog round Robin. Reminder that

974
00:47:45,800 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 1: the week sixteen contest tiebreaker is total passing yards on

975
00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 1: Monday night. Football Action Network predictive analyst Billy Ward writes

976
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 1: a weekly article about the tiebreaker strategy, and the link

977
00:47:58,000 --> 00:48:00,839
Speaker 1: to that article can be found in this episode. If

978
00:48:00,840 --> 00:48:03,480
Speaker 1: you want to like up in the contest, good luck

979
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:10,239
Speaker 1: all right, dog blocks your dog, Your dog blocks mot Doll.

980
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 1: Some teams that I wrote down for our money line

981
00:48:13,239 --> 00:48:17,040
Speaker 1: Underdog Robin, just to make it, you know, get some

982
00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:23,719
Speaker 1: Christmas miracles going Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona.

983
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:25,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's fun.

984
00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:30,399
Speaker 1: We need one more. You put Minnesota, right, I didn't

985
00:48:30,440 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 1: put Minnesota in there.

986
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:37,439
Speaker 3: I mean that's interesting. Houston, Texans are interesting. Let's go. Yeah,

987
00:48:37,480 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 3: let's do uh undera say, I'm trying to find a

988
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,400
Speaker 3: good faith the public. I guess the Minnesota would be

989
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 3: the best one, even though I have zero, zero, zero

990
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:49,359
Speaker 3: faith in that one. That's why maybe go find another one,

991
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:51,040
Speaker 3: just because I really don't have faith in it.

992
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:55,239
Speaker 1: The Ravens.

993
00:48:55,760 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do that. That'd be fun.

994
00:48:58,239 --> 00:49:11,320
Speaker 1: All right, So let's do Baltimore Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina Arizona, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Carolina, Arizona.

995
00:49:11,600 --> 00:49:13,600
Speaker 1: All right, we're gonna do a special treat this week.

996
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:20,200
Speaker 1: One of my favorite emailers of the podcast. His name

997
00:49:20,280 --> 00:49:25,640
Speaker 1: is Matthew O. Donnell. Okay, great guy, big fan of

998
00:49:25,680 --> 00:49:28,640
Speaker 1: his and he's a big fan of ours. He has

999
00:49:28,640 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 1: been emailing me about the Survivor picks because you know,

1000
00:49:32,680 --> 00:49:35,960
Speaker 1: we're out of it, but he's desperate for some advice

1001
00:49:35,960 --> 00:49:39,600
Speaker 1: because he's in a big money pool. He survives with

1002
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:43,800
Speaker 1: Kansas City last week. He's down to ten guys left

1003
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 1: seven can use Philly his best options right now, Packers,

1004
00:49:50,080 --> 00:49:55,040
Speaker 1: Rams Denver. He's leaning towards the Packers.

1005
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 2: Oh my god, that's why I hate Survivor. It's like

1006
00:49:57,680 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 2: I like all three of them. I don't know.

1007
00:50:00,200 --> 00:50:03,480
Speaker 3: I guess Packers right, like they need that win, but

1008
00:50:03,480 --> 00:50:04,360
Speaker 3: they're on the road.

1009
00:50:04,680 --> 00:50:05,640
Speaker 1: They're on the road.

1010
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:07,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, Survivor. I like to tend to go with the

1011
00:50:07,920 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 3: home team. Oh man, oh yeah, we did, we did.

1012
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:15,560
Speaker 3: We skipped the foxhol chat.

1013
00:50:15,640 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 2: God damn it.

1014
00:50:16,800 --> 00:50:20,719
Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, we skipped the Foxhole. Um, well, let's

1015
00:50:20,760 --> 00:50:23,200
Speaker 1: finish Survivor and we'll go back to Foxhole. Let's finish

1016
00:50:23,239 --> 00:50:25,200
Speaker 1: Survivor and then my.

1017
00:50:25,320 --> 00:50:29,600
Speaker 3: Foxhil okay, uh here we go. I don't know what

1018
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:31,040
Speaker 3: do you want to do here? I want to tell

1019
00:50:31,040 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 3: the guy to take the Packers, but they're on the road.

1020
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:34,840
Speaker 3: Are we supposed to take Denver in the fucking snow

1021
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 3: again or.

1022
00:50:36,480 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 1: The Rams on Thursday night against a team the wise guys? Are?

1023
00:50:41,640 --> 00:50:42,799
Speaker 1: I think it's the Packers?

1024
00:50:43,200 --> 00:50:43,759
Speaker 2: Packers?

1025
00:50:43,760 --> 00:50:47,040
Speaker 3: All right, brother, we'll tell you got's a couple of losers.

1026
00:50:47,040 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 2: Tell you to go Packers, Maddie O D.

1027
00:50:49,239 --> 00:50:53,799
Speaker 1: We're taking the Packers. Meanwhile, I think our foxhole. I

1028
00:50:53,800 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 1: want to say it's Arizona, but we also know that's

1029
00:50:55,960 --> 00:51:00,080
Speaker 1: the least popular team. They're playing the least popular pick

1030
00:51:00,120 --> 00:51:01,839
Speaker 1: and the Bears. Was it really fox Holy?

1031
00:51:02,360 --> 00:51:02,760
Speaker 2: Right?

1032
00:51:03,239 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 1: You know at Atlanta?

1033
00:51:06,200 --> 00:51:08,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's do Atlanta. That's a good Foxhole.

1034
00:51:09,120 --> 00:51:10,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's the only one left.

1035
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:12,400
Speaker 2: Taylor Heininike is a favorite.

1036
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 1: Seriously, you know what you say like that, we're in

1037
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:17,440
Speaker 1: the foxhol You know me, regardless of what's going on,

1038
00:51:17,480 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 1: I'm a foxhole guy.

1039
00:51:18,960 --> 00:51:20,720
Speaker 2: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.

1040
00:51:20,920 --> 00:51:21,839
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.

1041
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:25,200
Speaker 1: Atlanta is the foxhol Sorry about that, Matt Mitchell. Thank

1042
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,200
Speaker 1: you for Matt Mitchell. That was bad hosting. That was

1043
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:29,200
Speaker 1: that was my fault.

1044
00:51:29,560 --> 00:51:32,080
Speaker 3: I know you guys are too busy with visions fucking

1045
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:34,680
Speaker 3: sugar plums dancing in your heads to do your jobs.

1046
00:51:34,680 --> 00:51:35,960
Speaker 2: But I'm glad, glad, I'm here.

1047
00:51:36,080 --> 00:51:38,000
Speaker 1: Listen, Matt. I appreciate you, and this will be its

1048
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:40,919
Speaker 1: review season. I'll make sure that in the review when

1049
00:51:40,920 --> 00:51:44,200
Speaker 1: I credit you for pressing record on every podcast this year,

1050
00:51:44,400 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 1: which isn't always the case. Nice job. Everyone, give a

1051
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:49,960
Speaker 1: hand to Matt Mitchell. I'll make sure to knock myself

1052
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 1: down for this and appreciate you for reminding us. Simon,

1053
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:56,680
Speaker 1: let's make Little Caesars, which is the official pizza sponsor

1054
00:51:56,719 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 1: of the NFL, part of your game today. The holidays

1055
00:51:59,640 --> 00:52:02,120
Speaker 1: are new, hear Simon. If I climbed up on your

1056
00:52:02,200 --> 00:52:06,160
Speaker 1: roof and toss some Little Caesar's pizza down your chimney,

1057
00:52:06,400 --> 00:52:08,000
Speaker 1: would you still eat them?

1058
00:52:08,960 --> 00:52:10,840
Speaker 2: Yes? Chad. I would order.

1059
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:13,800
Speaker 1: Online during our pizza pizza pre game one hour before

1060
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 1: NFL games and get ready for some football and fun.

1061
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 1: Choose your favorite Little Caesar's pizza or pick the toppings

1062
00:52:20,239 --> 00:52:23,520
Speaker 1: you crave. Simon, what do you think about this new motto?

1063
00:52:24,040 --> 00:52:30,239
Speaker 1: I just invented to delight your nostrils with that holiday

1064
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:36,759
Speaker 1: musk fill your home with crazy crust. However you order

1065
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 1: your pizza, you win. And speaking of winning, everybody scores

1066
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:44,560
Speaker 1: with convenient delivery or our in store pizza portal pick up,

1067
00:52:44,960 --> 00:52:49,640
Speaker 1: grab some friends and enjoy a few slices during the game. Also,

1068
00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:53,000
Speaker 1: don't forget catch every episode of the Favorites live on

1069
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 1: YouTube every Tuesday, Thursday, and Sunday. If you're watching on YouTube,

1070
00:52:56,080 --> 00:52:58,319
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like, subscribe to the

1071
00:52:58,360 --> 00:53:01,840
Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. Simon, Remind everybody of your biggest

1072
00:53:01,880 --> 00:53:03,160
Speaker 1: bets this week.

1073
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 3: I'll be honest, because the last week was so good,

1074
00:53:08,560 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 3: I'm not going too crazy this week. Big bets I've

1075
00:53:13,040 --> 00:53:14,960
Speaker 3: made there right now that I guess sustantially for me

1076
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,920
Speaker 3: would be I mean, right off the top, Ravens hit

1077
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 3: that one, hit the Panthers Atlanta, and then.

1078
00:53:25,280 --> 00:53:26,920
Speaker 2: I guess, I guess we're closing here.

1079
00:53:26,920 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 3: I'll probably canna end up bigger on Tennessee, probably end

1080
00:53:30,080 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 3: up a little heavy on the Texan, especially if it

1081
00:53:31,960 --> 00:53:36,040
Speaker 3: gets the three. But like, yeah, games I was better,

1082
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,279
Speaker 3: like early in the week one of my bigger bets

1083
00:53:38,280 --> 00:53:40,120
Speaker 3: with the Buccaneers. I haven't put a single penny on

1084
00:53:40,160 --> 00:53:43,640
Speaker 3: that really since the numbers moved. So it is tough

1085
00:53:43,680 --> 00:53:45,600
Speaker 3: where It's like some of these games we don't know

1086
00:53:45,640 --> 00:53:47,719
Speaker 3: where the quarterbacks are, and that's why I'm a little

1087
00:53:47,719 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 3: hesitant to really get a lot of money down with

1088
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:50,239
Speaker 3: the Tennessee number.

1089
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 2: I want to bet Tennessee. I need to know for

1090
00:53:52,680 --> 00:53:53,680
Speaker 2: a fact it's Tannhill.

1091
00:53:53,719 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 3: If it's you know, one of the other backups, I

1092
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:59,239
Speaker 3: won't feel as confident betting Tennessee or so definitely be

1093
00:53:59,320 --> 00:54:01,640
Speaker 3: careful your people or we're lady in the season here.

1094
00:54:02,760 --> 00:54:05,520
Speaker 3: It's just you kind of want to save that bankrolling

1095
00:54:05,520 --> 00:54:07,520
Speaker 3: out at this point for the playoffs.

1096
00:54:07,800 --> 00:54:10,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I was. You know what's funny, I was feeling

1097
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 1: the same way, like I have not been firing away.

1098
00:54:12,920 --> 00:54:15,960
Speaker 1: I'm feeling a little bit like I want to get

1099
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:20,960
Speaker 1: to the games that really count in January either.

1100
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:23,080
Speaker 3: I mean, most people are you know, they're a little

1101
00:54:23,160 --> 00:54:25,000
Speaker 3: tight in the pockets. They've just spent all this money

1102
00:54:25,000 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 3: on their damn yeah snip and other You don't just

1103
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:30,200
Speaker 3: be blowing it on the on the Carolina Panthers, right,

1104
00:54:30,280 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 3: it's it's it's a.

1105
00:54:31,800 --> 00:54:35,240
Speaker 1: Little tight in the pockets. We're busy paying for auto

1106
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 1: repairs to the cars that your kids may or may

1107
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:42,080
Speaker 1: not have hit the side of the house with when

1108
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:44,560
Speaker 1: they were pulling out of the garage. We can't be

1109
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:47,719
Speaker 1: spending too much on Christmas presents as a reminder. The

1110
00:54:47,760 --> 00:54:51,480
Speaker 1: Favorites Podcast is presented by Bet three six five, Bet

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1120
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:18,720
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia, or eighteen and older in Kentucky.

1121
00:55:19,200 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight

1122
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:25,160
Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. All right,

1123
00:55:25,200 --> 00:55:27,680
Speaker 1: before we get out of here, it's time for Action.

1124
00:55:27,840 --> 00:55:32,080
Speaker 1: Network Director of Research Evan Abrams, the engine behind the

1125
00:55:32,080 --> 00:55:33,800
Speaker 1: great stats and nuggets you here on the show and

1126
00:55:33,840 --> 00:55:38,319
Speaker 1: across our network. Evan, you get the last word. The

1127
00:55:38,440 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 1: last word With Evan Abrams.

1128
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:45,360
Speaker 4: We're finished talking what's up guys, So in honor of

1129
00:55:45,400 --> 00:55:47,920
Speaker 4: our producer Tito, we have to start with my favorite

1130
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:50,840
Speaker 4: game of the weekend, which is Miami Dallas. Right now,

1131
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:52,960
Speaker 4: you talked about it Miami minus one, but that minus

1132
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:55,759
Speaker 4: one's getting very light, so Dallas might become a favorite soon.

1133
00:55:55,840 --> 00:55:57,360
Speaker 2: But let's talk about two stats.

1134
00:55:57,560 --> 00:56:00,880
Speaker 4: Dak Prescott six and thirteen right up in his career

1135
00:56:01,080 --> 00:56:04,440
Speaker 4: on the road versus over five hundred teams. That is

1136
00:56:04,440 --> 00:56:08,120
Speaker 4: one hundred and fourteenth of one hundred and sixteen quarterbacks

1137
00:56:08,120 --> 00:56:11,759
Speaker 4: since he was drafted in money line profitability. Now flip it,

1138
00:56:11,760 --> 00:56:13,279
Speaker 4: because I'm gonna give you this stat in a second.

1139
00:56:13,320 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 4: It's gonna explain why. So the Dolphins haven't beaten a

1140
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:18,239
Speaker 4: team with a winning record since the Bills in Week

1141
00:56:18,280 --> 00:56:21,640
Speaker 4: three last year. They are zero to seven, the only

1142
00:56:21,680 --> 00:56:24,239
Speaker 4: team in the NFL without a win against the team

1143
00:56:24,239 --> 00:56:28,359
Speaker 4: over five hundred this week Cowboys Dolphins. First game between

1144
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 4: teams with twenty plus combined wins but just one win

1145
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,279
Speaker 4: or fewer versus team's above five hundred and during the

1146
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:38,080
Speaker 4: week in history never happened the Fraud Bowl. It's gonna

1147
00:56:38,080 --> 00:56:42,319
Speaker 4: be great. I can't wait. Moving on, I'm backing up

1148
00:56:42,360 --> 00:56:45,879
Speaker 4: you guys. So teams off will win and overtime are

1149
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 4: sixty four and seventy seven straight up forty five percent,

1150
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:52,799
Speaker 4: sixty three, seventy seven and one also forty five percent against.

1151
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:54,000
Speaker 2: The spread the last decade.

1152
00:56:54,040 --> 00:56:57,240
Speaker 4: The week after that is Cincinnati and Houston this week,

1153
00:56:57,320 --> 00:57:00,200
Speaker 4: so a bit of a tough spot. One more, were

1154
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 4: five hundred teams with a negative average point differential this

1155
00:57:04,800 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 4: late in the season one seven one, seventy nine forty

1156
00:57:07,560 --> 00:57:09,160
Speaker 4: five percent last twenty years.

1157
00:57:09,200 --> 00:57:11,759
Speaker 2: The only team the Bengals.

1158
00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:14,320
Speaker 4: So Zach Taylor three and eleven straight up on the

1159
00:57:14,400 --> 00:57:16,200
Speaker 4: road versus the AFC North.

1160
00:57:16,640 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 2: It'sis this season.

1161
00:57:17,520 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 4: It is Rudolph time, boys, So let's go Pittsburgh.

1162
00:57:20,560 --> 00:57:23,680
Speaker 1: Ah Evan made a Christmas.

1163
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:26,800
Speaker 4: Pun finally the Chargers. We've all said it, We're all

1164
00:57:26,800 --> 00:57:29,200
Speaker 4: going to go with it. But teams as double digit

1165
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:32,880
Speaker 4: underdogs after huge losses last twenty years after thirty five

1166
00:57:32,920 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 4: plus it's nineteen four and one eighty three percent, twenty

1167
00:57:36,680 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 4: eight plus thirty three to two twenty two and one

1168
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:43,080
Speaker 4: sixty percent. So the more you lose by the better

1169
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:45,640
Speaker 4: it is. So nineteen four and one for the Chargers.

1170
00:57:45,720 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 4: Let's see if they can get inside that number easton

1171
00:57:47,920 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 4: stick season boys.

1172
00:57:49,880 --> 00:57:52,360
Speaker 1: Oh man, that is the ugliest one on the board

1173
00:57:52,360 --> 00:57:55,280
Speaker 1: that I know. When it gets to thirteen on Saturday Night,

1174
00:57:55,320 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 1: and then to have to bet it to recap our

1175
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:02,600
Speaker 1: Foxhole Atlanta's mind Atlanta one, Simon says, Carolina plus five

1176
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:05,959
Speaker 1: exec Decision, San Francisco minus five and a half. Don't

1177
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 1: hate me when we put Baltimore in the contest Big Balls,

1178
00:58:09,320 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 1: Tennessee plus two and a half Our round, Robin Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Carolina, Tennessee, Arizona,

1179
00:58:16,280 --> 00:58:20,280
Speaker 1: the Faiths five for now, for now. If we had

1180
00:58:20,280 --> 00:58:22,440
Speaker 1: to put the picks in right now and again, we

1181
00:58:22,520 --> 00:58:25,000
Speaker 1: will do that after the show. If I look at

1182
00:58:25,040 --> 00:58:33,680
Speaker 1: my notes, Carolina, Atlanta, Tennessee, Arizona, Baltimore like Simon, all right?

1183
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:36,760
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, Apple Podcast, wherever you get your pods,

1184
00:58:36,840 --> 00:58:39,360
Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars say whatever you want.

1185
00:58:39,400 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 1: Feedback is a gift. We're off on Sunday, so until

1186
00:58:43,840 --> 00:58:54,680
Speaker 1: Tuesday one five pm Eastern. Love You Action Network reminds

1187
00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:58,560
Speaker 1: you please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you care

1188
00:58:58,600 --> 00:59:01,760
Speaker 1: about has a gambling problem, help is available twenty four

1189
00:59:01,880 --> 00:59:03,720
Speaker 1: seven at one eight hundred Gambler