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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds and shanator Marsha Blackburn has announced she

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Speaker 1: will run for the governor of Tennessee.

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Speaker 2: God help us all, we have such a great show

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Speaker 2: for you today.

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Speaker 1: The New Republic's own Meredith Shiner talks to us about

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Speaker 1: the Voting Rights Acts Death and how it shaped our

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Speaker 1: politics today. Then we'll talk to the economists own Mike

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Speaker 1: Byrd about Trump's tariffs and how they are shaking our

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Speaker 1: very financial core.

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Speaker 3: So, Molly, we have many many things changing under mister

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Speaker 3: Trump and Project twenty twenty five and combating domestic violent

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Speaker 3: extremism is no longer a FEMA priority apparently.

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Speaker 1: So let's talk this through. Basically, Wired found these documents.

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Speaker 1: By the way, if we did not have Wired, we

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Speaker 1: would be missing a lot of stuff because Wired is

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Speaker 1: on it.

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Speaker 2: So Wired has really good reporting.

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Speaker 4: Could I go on my soapbox?

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Speaker 3: There's been a few times that I've said to you, Hey,

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Speaker 3: could you pull this from Wired? I don't have a subscription.

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Speaker 3: I subscribed because I feel bad because they're doing such

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Speaker 3: great work.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Wired, Katie Drummonds, come on the podcast. Actually, I'll

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Speaker 1: just email you after this. She's really good. The direct

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Speaker 1: the editorial director. So FEMA is planning to direct states

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Speaker 1: and tribes to immediately stop certain activities intended to combat

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Speaker 1: domestic violent extremism.

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Speaker 2: So violent extremism is pretty bad.

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Speaker 1: You would think that saying violent extremism is bad would

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Speaker 1: not be a partisan act, but this White House thinks

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Speaker 1: it is. And I think that really tells you all

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Speaker 1: you need to know about what the Trump White House

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Speaker 1: is doing. So, according to an unpublished bullet and FEMA

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Speaker 1: funds may not necessarily be yanked back from states which

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Speaker 1: are not fight I mean, it's just yet another trumpy

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Speaker 1: thing they're doing to it too covertly wink wink, nod

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Speaker 1: nod to their friends, and none of us should be

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Speaker 1: shocking but not surprising.

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Speaker 3: So a new study shows that you know, a lot

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Speaker 3: of people puzzle over how is the American economy's still standing?

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Speaker 3: Like it just seems like it should have all these

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Speaker 3: bad indicators. Every Jim Kramer and CNBC Pundo is always

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Speaker 3: like we're going in the ditch, and yet we don't

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Speaker 3: drive into the ditch. Apparently it's our youngest consumers who

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Speaker 3: are driving half of household spending.

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Speaker 2: Yes, it turns out that children, they cost the money.

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Speaker 1: Children are both expensive and also Generation Alpha likes to spend,

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Speaker 1: likes to spend. They there you know they like to spend.

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Speaker 1: Here are the things they spend money on. Food like

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Speaker 1: pop par beauty, and items during drops. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: and this makes me depressed. Items during do you know

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Speaker 1: what to drop us? I do know what it drops?

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Speaker 4: Okay, just well, you.

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Speaker 2: Have a birthday coming up.

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Speaker 4: I want to make sure that you know.

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Speaker 2: You're still dropping something for my birthday.

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Speaker 3: I actually made your birthday present last night, and my

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Speaker 3: wife left very hard at it.

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Speaker 2: I hope it's a rudy julian A cameo.

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Speaker 4: Are you seeing a flood of anger? Ak? A mic

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Speaker 4: foot of anger?

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Speaker 2: A mic flood of anger.

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Speaker 1: So Nebraska Congressman Mike Flood had a town hall. Everyone

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Speaker 1: in the world screamed at him for two and a

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Speaker 1: half hours.

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Speaker 3: It's crazy to listen to it as audio listeners haven't

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Speaker 3: done it because you would think that you're at a lettered,

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Speaker 3: skinnered concert and they haven't played Freebird.

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Speaker 2: That was a musical reference.

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Speaker 1: So I want to talk about this for a second,

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Speaker 1: because a lot of us are feeling real bad and

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Speaker 1: we're feeling real stressed. We're watching Donald Trump just disassemble

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Speaker 1: the federal government in real time. We've got billionaires doing

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Speaker 1: all sorts of sketchy stuff to have more money, because

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Speaker 1: what they really need is more money. It's just a

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Speaker 1: really terrible time to be a person who cares about

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Speaker 1: American democracy and democratic norms. But let me tell you something.

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Speaker 1: As angry as you are, people around the country are

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Speaker 1: angry too. And just because it doesn't necessarily get the

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Speaker 1: same mainstream media coverage, it's happening. And you see these

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Speaker 1: town halls and you see these lines. And I talk

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Speaker 1: to James tell Erico about this, and he said he

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Speaker 1: had huge lines for his town halls. People are angry

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Speaker 1: and they don't like having you know, Trump is cutting Medicaid,

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Speaker 1: is cutting food stamps. They are taking things away from

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Speaker 1: people and they are mad. So I understand the trauma

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Speaker 1: of the twenty twenty four election, especially after the twenty

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Speaker 1: sixteen election. We are a country that now has elected

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Speaker 1: Trump twice, which is hard to grapple with as a

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Speaker 1: person who thinks of themselves as like lives in a

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Speaker 1: smart country. The fact that we've elected Trump twice. It

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Speaker 1: doesn't make me feel goo great about where we are.

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Speaker 2: Fine.

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Speaker 4: Run's a little contrary to the notion.

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Speaker 2: Yes, but I want to point out people are really mad.

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Speaker 1: They feel really, really unhappy with the direction the country

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Speaker 1: is going. And Trump's polling has fallen through the floor.

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Speaker 1: He is as unpopular as anyone ever. Basically his young

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Speaker 1: people who voted for him have huge regrets. We have

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Speaker 1: Trump podcasters saying that they didn't realize he was lying

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Speaker 1: about paying for IVF, that they're mad about the Ebstein files. Mean,

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Speaker 1: there's never been anyone with less of a mandate than

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And to show how nervous he is, he's

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Speaker 1: trying to cheat on the midterms already.

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Speaker 2: It's like months and months and months away.

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Speaker 1: So if you're feeling bad, just know that the rest

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Speaker 1: of the country is maybe not all of the country,

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Speaker 1: but a lot of the country is feeling the way

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Speaker 1: you are.

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Speaker 4: Agreed, And I think you put that very well well.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of things to be mad about and how bad

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Speaker 3: billionaires are at running things, Elon Musk thought he could

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Speaker 3: run the government like a startup where you say, justify

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Speaker 3: your job to me, or you're fired. Well, it turns

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Speaker 3: out that Trump administration has now rolled that back, that

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Speaker 3: email that he sent, because it was insanely dumb and

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Speaker 3: causing a lot of problems.

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Speaker 2: You know, Elon Musk.

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Speaker 1: Nope, Look when he did it, it didn't work, and

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Speaker 1: now it's taken them somehow three months to roll it back.

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Speaker 1: I think what's important is when you don't understand what

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Speaker 1: the federal government does, it's very easy to want to

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Speaker 1: chop it up and put it in a wood chipper.

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Speaker 1: But the federal government does a lot of stuff that

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Speaker 1: keeps us safe. They do a lot of things that

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Speaker 1: you know, protect us that we don't necessarily know about,

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Speaker 1: that we don't necessarily completely understand until they mess up.

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Speaker 2: But I think the most.

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Speaker 1: Important thing about Elon musk Department of Government efficiency is

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Speaker 1: that it's likely that it cost us the taxpayers twenty

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Speaker 1: one point seven billion dollars analyzing the ways generated by

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Speaker 1: Doge Dick Blumenthal's office twenty one billion dollars.

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Speaker 3: So, in other things that contradict what Trump says, there's

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Speaker 3: an FBI report that this proves Trump's claim of a

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Speaker 3: Biden era out of control crime wave.

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Speaker 1: Yes, I'm shocked, shocked, I tell you we're lying about

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Speaker 1: the crime wave. The FBI, which still I guess, does

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Speaker 1: some stuff that isn't completely by Trump, that aren't completely

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Speaker 1: dictated by Trump. Annual figures released Tuesday reflect a four

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Speaker 1: point five year on year.

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Speaker 2: Decrease in violent crimes.

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Speaker 1: So when Donald Trump fought for and one, his victory

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Speaker 1: was built on this idea that there was an out

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Speaker 1: of control crime wave.

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Speaker 2: In fact, it turns out that crime is down.

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Speaker 1: It's fallen fourteen point five percent from the twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: three figure. At least, all violent crimes nationwide, murder and

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Speaker 1: manslaughter have fallen fourteen percent.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, a trend that's been going on for quite a

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Speaker 4: while and.

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Speaker 2: Has nothing to do with Ready.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, just as it had nothing to do with his

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Speaker 3: buddy Verdi Giuliani when he took credit for it.

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Speaker 1: Right, The analytics of fighting crime have gotten better.

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Speaker 2: It does not have anything to do with Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: Meredith Shiner is a contributing editor at The New Republic.

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Speaker 1: Welcome Too Fast Politics. Meredith, thank you again for having me.

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Speaker 1: Oh you're so prepared and nice and good.

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Speaker 2: What an endorsement.

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Speaker 5: By the way, I have to tell you that I've

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Speaker 5: never been more famous than when I did this podcast

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Speaker 5: and in my Instagram comments, it was a lot of

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Speaker 5: my friends, but also a lot of my friends' moms

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Speaker 5: who are maybe a little bit too addicted to MSNBC

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Speaker 5: and now think I'm the coolest person ever.

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Speaker 1: Oh moms, We love moms. You're in Chicago, you know.

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Speaker 1: I talked to Anna Capara, who is the chief of

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Speaker 1: staff of Governor Pritzgar, his speech writer, his like sort

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Speaker 1: of right hand who is I think of like as

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Speaker 1: one of the sort of genius communicators in the Democratic Party.

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Speaker 1: And she was a boson who came up with like

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Speaker 1: team fight versus team cave. And I talked to her

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Speaker 1: on Monday, which is two days ago maybe, and she

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Speaker 1: was saying to me that the minute they knew this

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Speaker 1: was going to happen, that the governor was like, we

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Speaker 1: will protect them, We will be here. You know, they

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Speaker 1: should come here. You are in Chicago, talk to us

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Speaker 1: about what it's like to have a good governor.

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Speaker 2: It's nice. I think about this a lot.

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Speaker 6: As the federal government is disintegrating, where you live continues

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Speaker 6: to matter more like whether you were in a blue

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Speaker 6: state or a red state. Although I do think when

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Speaker 6: we have authoritarianism no one is fully protected. But when

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Speaker 6: you see elected officials actually recognizing the reality that we're

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Speaker 6: living in, I think that's a really important co.

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Speaker 2: Opponent towards us moving forward in any way.

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Speaker 6: When you have elected officials in Washington, particularly Democrats, who

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Speaker 6: aren't fully reckoning with the threats we're facing in this moment,

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Speaker 6: it makes it really hard for everyone else to understand it.

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Speaker 6: And so I think one of the most important things

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Speaker 6: about JB. Pritzger and Illinois welcoming these House Democrats is

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Speaker 6: to say we are recognizing this reality and this is

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Speaker 6: not normal. Throughout the press conference, I think that that

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Speaker 6: was a real theme, the idea that you would just

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Speaker 6: read district halfway through a term.

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Speaker 2: Jerrymandering is already a.

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Speaker 6: Problem on its face, but the idea that we are

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Speaker 6: super charging that now only five years or I guess

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Speaker 6: four and a half years after January sixth. I mean,

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Speaker 6: all of these things exist in context, and at the

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Speaker 6: federal level we're seeing disintegration. But we've always really seen

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Speaker 6: states as these laboratories, particularly for conservative politics. I think

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Speaker 6: about that Gail Collins book, As Goes Texas and how

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Speaker 6: all of these ideas on policy really incubated on Texas,

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Speaker 6: experimented there and then got implemented and enforced on the

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Speaker 6: entire country, whether it was education or even some of

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Speaker 6: their lacks gun safety rules or sba'd yes, which was

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Speaker 6: the end of Roebi Wade. And so when you see

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Speaker 6: democratic states really recognizing that they also have a rule

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Speaker 6: to play in being leaders, that's really important. And you know,

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Speaker 6: I'm old enough that in twenty eleven, I was a

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Speaker 6: reporter for Politico and I was in Madison, Wisconsin when

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Speaker 6: those Wisconsin Senate Democrats left the state because Scott Walker

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Speaker 6: was trying to enforce a union busting rule, like at

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Speaker 6: the birthplace of American unions.

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Speaker 2: He was trying to destroy labor.

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Speaker 6: And so those Senate Democrats crossed the border and came

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Speaker 6: to Illinois as a safe haven. And I think, going

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Speaker 6: back to your conversation about fight versus not fight, I

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Speaker 6: think that that's really important. But there's a second part here,

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Speaker 6: and it's connecting the fight to the issues and communicating

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Speaker 6: why that fight matters.

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Speaker 2: If we're just looking at a binary between fight and

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Speaker 2: non fight, we're in internet comment wars. But when we're

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Speaker 2: looking at.

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Speaker 6: A paradigm where you are fighting and you were talking

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Speaker 6: about what is happening and what matters.

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Speaker 2: I think that's the most important thing, right.

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Speaker 6: Like I mentioned before the show, today's the sixtieth anniversary

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Speaker 6: of the Voting Rights Act. That means for people like me,

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Speaker 6: I'm a millennial, the Voting Rights Act is younger than

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Speaker 6: my parents, Okay, And so we think about so many

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Speaker 6: of our freedoms and justice as durable and sustainable and

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Speaker 6: self sustaining. But really they are young, and they are fragile,

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Speaker 6: and these freedoms and rights are so easy to erase.

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Speaker 6: And that's what we're seeing now, and that's what we

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Speaker 6: really need our leaders to articulate.

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Speaker 2: And that's what we're hopefully seeing in Chicago today.

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Speaker 6: Although I will say my last note on this is

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Speaker 6: that I checked the front page of both the Chicago

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Speaker 6: Tribune and the Dallas Morning News before we hopped on

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Speaker 6: to see how they were playing in both places, and

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Speaker 6: the Tribune had the story pretty up high.

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Speaker 2: The Dallas Morning News is now.

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Speaker 6: Lee with the surprise twist of fifteen finalists for food

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Speaker 6: and drink entries for the Texas State Fair versus ten.

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Speaker 6: So you have to scroll laser Freddy Guts, Laser focused

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Speaker 6: on democracy. You have to really scroll down far to

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Speaker 6: see that people in Texas are about to lose their rights.

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Speaker 1: I would love you to talk about the Voting Rights

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Speaker 1: Act and your time as a reporter. Just talk us

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Speaker 1: through that story that you told us about before you

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Speaker 1: came on, because it was amazing.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 6: So, the Shelby County Holder decision, which was really the

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Speaker 6: first major blow the Supreme Court issued against the Voting

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Speaker 6: Rights Act, happened in the summer of twenty thirteen. And

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Speaker 6: one of my pet beliefs is that the summer of

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Speaker 6: twenty thirteen was a huge turning point in our country.

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Speaker 6: This was right after the Obama reeleft, but this was

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Speaker 6: really when the Republican Party was trying to figure out

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Speaker 6: who they were. And what I remember about that time

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Speaker 6: was that decision came down around the same time as

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Speaker 6: the Senate was negotiating a bipartisan bill to reformer immigration system.

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Speaker 6: And this was a period of time where Jeff Sessions

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Speaker 6: and his top communicator, Stephen Miller at the Senate Judiciary Committee.

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Speaker 1: God, I forgot that Stephen Miller worked for Jeff Sessions.

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Speaker 2: That was from season one, Season one.

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Speaker 6: I'm really calling back to an original season that was

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Speaker 6: terrifying to us. And so what I remember about that

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Speaker 6: summer was that Jeff Sessions was very, very popular with reporters.

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Speaker 2: Everyone was going to him to find.

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Speaker 6: A throwaway quote vias in the both sides framework of

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Speaker 6: DC political journalism, when you have a bipartisan immigration bill

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Speaker 6: on one side, it turns out that the other side

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Speaker 6: is Jeff Sessions xenophobia. And so every day people were

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Speaker 6: crowding around him to get a quote to basically try

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Speaker 6: to tank.

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Speaker 2: This immigration bill.

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Speaker 6: Okay, So the day that the Shelby County Holder decision

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Speaker 6: came down, Shelby County is in Alabama, where it basically

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Speaker 6: talked about the idea that preclearance was unconstitutional and kicked it.

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Speaker 2: Back to Congress to try to fix the formula. I

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Speaker 2: would love you to talk.

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Speaker 1: This through Voting Rights and what happened with Shelby County

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Speaker 1: and how those two things were related for decades.

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Speaker 6: The Voting Rights Act established a law where it gave

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Speaker 6: the Department of Justice some authority to basically look at

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Speaker 6: the performance and operations of different districts to make sure,

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Speaker 6: especially that black Americans had the freedom to vote. Because

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Speaker 6: if we think about back to Jim Crow and poll

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Speaker 6: taxes and literacy tests. They were imposing barriers to the

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Speaker 6: franchise that were then deemed illegal right but by virtue

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Speaker 6: of the fact that the Voting Rights Act was made

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Speaker 6: into law. And so the thing that the Supreme Court

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Speaker 6: attacked was this idea that the Department of Justice could

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Speaker 6: create a formula to basically rank voting jurisdictions to make

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Speaker 6: sure that they were operating fairly and justly. And what

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Speaker 6: John Roberts knew and what the conservatives on the Court

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Speaker 6: knew was if they tried to find a technicality, and

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Speaker 6: the technicality back in twenty thirteen was that they wanted

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Speaker 6: Congress to come back together and to redo the formula,

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Speaker 6: to make it new, to try to modernize it, like

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Speaker 6: in some sort of weird, made up version of what

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Speaker 6: they thought could be constitutional, because they get to decide

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Speaker 6: what is and isn't and there's no rhyme or reason

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Speaker 6: for what that is. If they put it on Congress

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Speaker 6: and put the onus on Congress to fix it, it would

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Speaker 6: never happen because Congress could never get their act enough

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Speaker 6: to get together to do it. And so they took

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Speaker 6: away a key power of the federal government to make

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Speaker 6: sure that elections were free and fair across the country,

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Speaker 6: because remember, the federal government doesn't actually run elections, the

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Speaker 6: local jurisdictions do. The thing about this was that this

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Speaker 6: was actually a huge blow to voters across the country

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Speaker 6: because they no longer had the oversight of the Department

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Speaker 6: of Justice to make sure that their elections were free

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Speaker 6: and fair, and it left it up to these munis.

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Speaker 6: And as we are seeing now twelve years in the future,

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Speaker 6: there are huge vulnerabilities with that right. And I think

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Speaker 6: the thing that was so challenging about that time and

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Speaker 6: being on the Hill at that time, is that people

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Speaker 6: didn't think this was a big deal. They didn't think

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Speaker 6: it was that important. And so I brought up that

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Speaker 6: sort of context about Jeff Sessions because I wanted to

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Speaker 6: find Jeff Sessions that day to talk to him about

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Speaker 6: this decision, because he was a senator from Alabama, but

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Speaker 6: before he was a senator for Alabama, he had been

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Speaker 6: a judicial nominee.

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Speaker 2: That was too racist to be confirmed.

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Speaker 8: Yes, I remember it well, and when I asked him

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Speaker 8: what he thought of the decision, I want to read

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Speaker 8: this direct quote because it's absolutely unhinged.

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Speaker 2: He said it was good news.

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Speaker 6: I think for the South, in that the Supreme Court

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Speaker 6: found there was not sufficient evidence to justify treating them disproportionately,

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Speaker 6: then let's say Philadelphia or Boston, or Los Angeles or Chicago.

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Speaker 6: And when I pushed him on whether he supports pre

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Speaker 6: clearance on principle, because remember the Supreme Court said we

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Speaker 6: should fix the formula this, then Republican senator said, well,

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Speaker 6: I don't think it should exist in Shelby County. Shelby

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Speaker 6: County has never had a history of denying voters, and

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Speaker 6: certainly not now. I mean the amount of a historical

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Speaker 6: kutzba to be like Alabama didn't discriminate against voters. I mean,

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Speaker 6: this is the foundation that they were laying twelve years ago.

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Speaker 6: And I wanted to talk about this today because people

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Speaker 6: think that all of these things are new right, and

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Speaker 6: that it's just Trump and you know, Bolden for a

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Speaker 6: second term.

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Speaker 2: He's doing all of these things and it's.

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Speaker 6: An anomaly and we can go back to something that

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Speaker 6: existed differently. But what I want to remind people is

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Speaker 6: that this is a system's problem. This was a party problem,

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Speaker 6: and this was the project, just like repealing abortion and

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Speaker 6: making it illegal potentially across this country is a Republican project.

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Speaker 2: Restricting rights, rolling back civil rights. That's also a project,

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Speaker 2: and they are succeeding, right.

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Speaker 1: So tell us what John Lewis said when you talk

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Speaker 1: to him about this quote.

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Speaker 6: So, because I am a rebel rouser, I went to

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Speaker 6: the CBC press conference, the Congressional Black Caucus press conference afterwards,

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Speaker 6: and I mean there's c SPAN video of this, and

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Speaker 6: you should see everyone's faces when they're like twenty five

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Speaker 6: black members of Congress standing up on a stage to.

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Speaker 2: Talk about what a dark day this is.

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Speaker 6: You know, sometimes on your reporter and it's probably surprising

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Speaker 6: because I'm talking a lot now. Some reporters love doing

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Speaker 6: the big wind up and reading an essay. I basically

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Speaker 6: just said, I'd like to read you a quote from

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Speaker 6: Jeff Sessions that he just told me. What John Lewis

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Speaker 6: said was basically talking about his lived experience. I mean,

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Speaker 6: this is a person who almost died on the Edmund

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Speaker 6: Petties Bridge to try to secure the rights to vote

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Speaker 6: for other people. And so he talked about the poll taxes,

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Speaker 6: he talked about the literacy tests, he talked about everything

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Speaker 6: that like he had to endure that he fail.

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Speaker 2: The history that was real, and I think.

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Speaker 6: That's so important, especially like in this time and this

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Speaker 6: landscape where everyone is trying to put misinformation out there,

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Speaker 6: everyone is trying to like reverse history to remember that

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Speaker 6: there are people who lived and fought for these rights,

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Speaker 6: and that we're going to have to do that again.

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Speaker 6: What John Lewis said to me was, I was born

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Speaker 6: in Alabama. I lived in Alabama most my young life.

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Speaker 6: In Alabama. The same year that Barack Obama was born,

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Speaker 6: white people and black people couldn't sit together in a

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Speaker 6: bus station or ride together in a taxi cab.

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Speaker 2: They had to change that.

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Speaker 6: Teachers, college professors, lawyers, and doctors, and they were told

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Speaker 6: they could not reader write well enough that they failed

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Speaker 6: a so called literacy test, and they were not able

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Speaker 6: to register to vote until after the Voting Rights Act

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Speaker 6: was passed and signed into law on August sixth, nineteen

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Speaker 6: sixty five. We have made progress, yes, but we are

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Speaker 6: not there yet. It is still needed today in Alabama

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Speaker 6: and throughout other states in the Old Confederacy and other

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Speaker 6: parts of our country.

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Speaker 2: And so that's what he said, and that is what

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Speaker 2: is true.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, that's crazy, you know, as much as we think

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Speaker 1: of ourselves as being a democracy for a long time.

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Speaker 1: We are actually have not been a multi racial democracy

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Speaker 1: for very long.

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Speaker 6: No, And you know, I think people really take it

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Speaker 6: for granted, you know that we were able to live

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Speaker 6: a certain way. I think about my four year old

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Speaker 6: and the world he's going to grow up in, and

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Speaker 6: that's really overwhelming to think about, because I feel like

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Speaker 6: none of us were naive enough to think that progress

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Speaker 6: was linear, right, and that there weren't going to be

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Speaker 6: these fights, and there weren't going to be factions of

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Speaker 6: people who were fighting to roll back these rights.

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Speaker 2: But the way that has.

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Speaker 6: Been normalized, the way that these assaults are happening every day,

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Speaker 6: the idea that Greg Abbott in Texas can just sort

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Speaker 6: of comply with the President of the United States try

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Speaker 6: to snap redistrict even though that's not really allowed in

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Speaker 6: their constitution, and then like for his Attorney general to

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Speaker 6: say they're going to come to Illinois and get these

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Speaker 6: members of their delegation, Like, we have to stop and

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Speaker 6: think about how outlandish that is, because we're living in

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Speaker 6: a time where every piece of news seems more outrageous

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Speaker 6: than the last.

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Speaker 2: And I don't want us to get.

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Speaker 6: To sensitize to the fact that this isn't normal and

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Speaker 6: that we could live in a world that looks different.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think what's happening in Texas is partially their

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Speaker 1: complete lack of respect for any norms and institutions. But

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Speaker 1: I also think part of it is that Ken Paxton

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Speaker 1: wants the mega endorsement for Senate, John Cornyan wants the

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Speaker 1: mega endorsement for Senate, and Cash Battel just wants to

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Speaker 1: keep his job well and.

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Speaker 2: Keep going to sporting events.

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Speaker 6: Like what is his job other than going to sporting

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Speaker 6: events and sitting in luxury boxes?

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Speaker 1: Right, Cash Battel does not want to have to fly

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Speaker 1: commercial discuss I'm going to pick John Cornyan of that

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Speaker 1: list of people throughout, which is maybe going to be

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Speaker 1: a surprise to folks because now it makes sense.

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Speaker 6: You know, I spent a lot of time covering Senate

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Speaker 6: leadership and congressional leadership, and I try to at least

444
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:04,040
Speaker 6: have a memory as long as I've worked. And something

445
00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:07,159
Speaker 6: that people probably forget about John Cornyn was that he

446
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,000
Speaker 6: was up for reelection in two thousand and eight, which

447
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,720
Speaker 6: is the year that Barack Obama won his first election.

448
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,280
Speaker 2: It was a huge waveyer and John Cornan's ads.

449
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 6: Your listeners can google this. They were Big John ads.

450
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:21,439
Speaker 6: It was just a song that said Big.

451
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:22,399
Speaker 2: John over and over again.

452
00:23:22,480 --> 00:23:25,359
Speaker 6: It didn't even mention he was a Republican because it

453
00:23:25,520 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 6: was not a convenient year to talk about being a

454
00:23:28,560 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 6: Republican and conservative values. And I raised this to say

455
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:36,360
Speaker 6: that these people have no core. They don't believe in anything.

456
00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:39,240
Speaker 6: And so when we're trying to impose reason, when we're

457
00:23:39,280 --> 00:23:42,760
Speaker 6: thinking about it like normal people who care about normal

458
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 6: things like being able to turn on PBS in the

459
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 6: morning and seeing educational cartoons, right, we're thinking about it

460
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 6: totally differently than the way they experience it.

461
00:23:53,280 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 2: They don't believe in anything. They just believe in holding

462
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 2: onto their power.

463
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 6: And I think what we're increasingly learning is that that's

464
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:05,639
Speaker 6: not really towards an end except for like owning the lips. Like,

465
00:24:05,720 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 6: these people don't really care about anything except for breaking things.

466
00:24:10,160 --> 00:24:12,879
Speaker 2: And for a long time, they've broken the government.

467
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 6: To run on a broken government, Right, you don't flirt

468
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 6: with defaulting on our debt or having a government shut down,

469
00:24:19,040 --> 00:24:21,159
Speaker 6: or any number of things that they have done in

470
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 6: the past fifteen to thirty years.

471
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:24,840
Speaker 2: If we want to go all the way back to

472
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:27,240
Speaker 2: new but now we're seeing sort of.

473
00:24:27,119 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 6: Like the end result of that nihilism, and it's hard

474
00:24:31,960 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 6: to process because there's no actual logic to it. So, yeah,

475
00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:37,960
Speaker 6: they want to keep power, like you're right, Like maybe

476
00:24:37,960 --> 00:24:40,840
Speaker 6: you want to keep your like first class seats or

477
00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:44,040
Speaker 6: John Cornyan likes that a twenty two year old drives

478
00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,080
Speaker 6: him to the steps of the Capitol, and you have

479
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:48,760
Speaker 6: a lifestyle.

480
00:24:48,480 --> 00:24:51,160
Speaker 2: That you get to maintain, but it's for nothing.

481
00:24:51,680 --> 00:24:53,840
Speaker 6: I wish I could answer your question better than I

482
00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:55,919
Speaker 6: am right now, but I think that that's sort of

483
00:24:55,920 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 6: what we're all sitting with, is that there are definitely

484
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,760
Speaker 6: some evil people who want to do evil things, and

485
00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:02,480
Speaker 6: then there are a.

486
00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 2: Lot of people who just don't care.

487
00:25:05,560 --> 00:25:09,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, what is important about this moment in American life

488
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 1: as we sit here, is that it's not so much

489
00:25:13,600 --> 00:25:17,400
Speaker 1: that these people are evil. It's so much of it

490
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:19,960
Speaker 1: is that these people are not brave. It's easier to

491
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 1: do the wrong thing than it is to do the

492
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:26,280
Speaker 1: right thing. And I think we're seeing that just quite

493
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 1: a lot along the Republican Party, right Like Susan Collins

494
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,080
Speaker 1: knows what the right thing is and she knows what

495
00:25:32,160 --> 00:25:35,280
Speaker 1: the wrong thing is, and it's easier just to do

496
00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:38,600
Speaker 1: the wrong thing, or just to sort of say a

497
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:41,800
Speaker 1: little bit that she's not happy, but not really take

498
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 1: a stand on things.

499
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,200
Speaker 6: I don't want to take your Susan Collins bait, because

500
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,400
Speaker 6: we could do an entire episode on her, and I've

501
00:25:47,440 --> 00:25:49,360
Speaker 6: written multiple magazine articles on her.

502
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 2: But you know what I mean, some of the less

503
00:25:52,160 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 2: evil senators. Yes, well, And.

504
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,919
Speaker 6: The piece of your comment, which I think is so

505
00:25:58,040 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 6: right that I really want to build on, is this

506
00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,160
Speaker 6: idea of bravery or courage. And I think about this

507
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,800
Speaker 6: not just in terms of our elected officials, but all

508
00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:10,040
Speaker 6: of the institutions that exist around them. So we haven't

509
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,200
Speaker 6: even touched on the fact that yesterday RFK Junior said

510
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:16,920
Speaker 6: he's going to end our mRNA vaccine program, the same

511
00:26:16,960 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 6: week that we have the news that we could prevent

512
00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:21,360
Speaker 6: HIV with an mRNA vaccine.

513
00:26:21,480 --> 00:26:24,959
Speaker 2: Yeah, well, they're not that preventing HIV. I know, I know,

514
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:27,639
Speaker 2: I know. But where was pharma?

515
00:26:27,680 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 9: Where were all of these moneyed interests, these people who

516
00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 9: are making billions on the pharmaceutical industry, None of them

517
00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:36,359
Speaker 9: could make a phone call to like a United States

518
00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 9: senator and be like, you know what, not this idiot

519
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:40,600
Speaker 9: different idiot.

520
00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 6: Like, we aren't so far away from a time where

521
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,440
Speaker 6: the Senate used to do their job and there were

522
00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,400
Speaker 6: people who couldn't get confirmed. And so when you see

523
00:26:50,440 --> 00:26:54,440
Speaker 6: these universities paying hundreds of millions of dollars to this administration,

524
00:26:54,800 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 6: when you see the pharmaceutical industry not putting up a

525
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 6: fight to stop RFK before he dismantled the entire scientific

526
00:27:02,359 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 6: research infrastructure of this country, it wasn't just that these

527
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 6: elected officials had no courage.

528
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:08,640
Speaker 2: It was that.

529
00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 6: Literally everyone around them in the system didn't. And that's

530
00:27:12,880 --> 00:27:15,880
Speaker 6: really overwhelming to think too, Like, I don't think any

531
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,560
Speaker 6: billionaire is going to save us in any.

532
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 2: Capacity, certainly, not not even a little Nope, Nope. They're

533
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:24,679
Speaker 2: not going to save our newsrooms.

534
00:27:24,680 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 6: But when Trump announced his sort of roster of cabinet

535
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,400
Speaker 6: nominees this time around, I was.

536
00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:33,600
Speaker 10: Like, you know, I think all of them will get through.

537
00:27:33,640 --> 00:27:36,040
Speaker 10: But if there's one who might not, it's the guy

538
00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 10: who could wreck the multi billion dollar pharmaceutical industry with

539
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,600
Speaker 10: his quackery. And even that didn't happen. And so like,

540
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 10: when the like vultures of capitalism don't even have the

541
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 10: courage to act, You're like, well, what are we doing here.

542
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:54,399
Speaker 2: And what is it for?

543
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,119
Speaker 6: And that connects sort of to your like original Texas

544
00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:00,880
Speaker 6: question too, of like these people don't really believe in anything,

545
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 6: and they're destroying everything.

546
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:06,080
Speaker 2: Just for the sport of it. And that's really bleak

547
00:28:06,160 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 2: to think about.

548
00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:10,199
Speaker 1: Thank you, thank you, thank you, Medness. You have to

549
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,200
Speaker 1: come back all the time. I wish we had it

550
00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,159
Speaker 1: added on such a depressing no, no, no, it's fine.

551
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 1: That's what our people do.

552
00:28:16,560 --> 00:28:20,520
Speaker 2: Thank you, Medness, Thank you. Molly.

553
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,119
Speaker 1: Mike Byrd is the economist Wall Street editor.

554
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:27,680
Speaker 2: Welcome, too Fast Politics, Mike.

555
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:29,320
Speaker 7: Burn, thank you for having mega.

556
00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: Oh, I'm delighted to have you so prade wars are

557
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: good and easy to win discuss.

558
00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,080
Speaker 11: It depends what you're talking for. For American consumers, not

559
00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,520
Speaker 11: so much. Maybe for some people. It depends what your

560
00:28:42,520 --> 00:28:42,959
Speaker 11: aims are.

561
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: If your aim is to crash the United States economy

562
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: as it.

563
00:28:47,960 --> 00:28:50,880
Speaker 11: Going, yeah, that probably helps if that's one of your aims.

564
00:28:51,080 --> 00:28:54,600
Speaker 11: It's been really interesting so far, because up until a

565
00:28:54,640 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 11: couple of days ago, I think you would have said

566
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 11: those not so much. A sign of that happening. We

567
00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:04,280
Speaker 11: got these massive, massive revisions to the labor force numbers,

568
00:29:04,520 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 11: came out the Bureau for Labor Statistics, which really sort

569
00:29:08,920 --> 00:29:11,240
Speaker 11: of changed the analysis of what people think has happened

570
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,000
Speaker 11: in the last few months April and May.

571
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 7: In particular, the employment number is much worse than.

572
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 11: People had thought, and it sort of does paint a

573
00:29:20,160 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 11: picture of a labor market that's been weighed on by

574
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 11: the tariff news a lot more than the previous numbers did.

575
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 2: So explain to us what that means.

576
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,440
Speaker 1: Like, I thought it was pretty interesting that we had

577
00:29:32,640 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 1: all of these Trump apologists saying that in fact, it

578
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 1: was not the trade wars but instead AI that was

579
00:29:41,560 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: causing this is an AI that's causing.

580
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,080
Speaker 11: It, I'd be surprised if it's AI. Frankly, there's been

581
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:50,040
Speaker 11: a lot of discussion about this, but I still think

582
00:29:50,080 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 11: it's more of a prospective thing. Looking forward, you might

583
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:58,200
Speaker 11: start to see that showing up in some areas where

584
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 11: white collar employment at the really entry level, you might

585
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 11: expect that to slow down. That's not really what we're

586
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:06,120
Speaker 11: seeing in the job numbers at the moment. I do

587
00:30:06,200 --> 00:30:08,440
Speaker 11: think there is a little bit more of an indication

588
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,080
Speaker 11: that the tariffs are weighing on things, partly because the

589
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,959
Speaker 11: uncertainty of what's going on at the moment, Even if

590
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 11: you leave aside the fact that it's bad policy, that

591
00:30:16,720 --> 00:30:19,800
Speaker 11: the tariffs are a bad policy, the bad for American consumers,

592
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:22,959
Speaker 11: they're bad for American businesses, even American exporters, because they

593
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 11: can't be the imported parts they need to make the

594
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:28,600
Speaker 11: products that they're actually selling. Even if you leave that aside,

595
00:30:28,720 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 11: just the pure uncertainty of the economic impact, because there's

596
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,040
Speaker 11: been so much sort of volatility in what people are

597
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 11: expecting from the tariffs, is going to weigh on those decisions.

598
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 11: If you are thinking of hiring ten people, so you've

599
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 11: got a small business, you employ ten people, you're thinking

600
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 11: of expanding to doubling the size, are you going to

601
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 11: wait to make that decision or are you gonna make

602
00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 11: it now right with the aftermath of all the tariffs,

603
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,480
Speaker 11: all the announcements, everything so and cert if you have

604
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 11: any exposure to those sort of supply chains, you're gonna wait, basically,

605
00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 11: or you're very likely to wait relative to what you

606
00:30:59,320 --> 00:31:01,800
Speaker 11: might have been thinking in March or February, which is

607
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 11: going to weigh on the unemployment numbers.

608
00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:08,320
Speaker 1: Undoubtedly, the whole point of this exercise was to bring

609
00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: manufacturing back to the United States. These tariffs were supposed

610
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: to create a manufacturing boom.

611
00:31:16,280 --> 00:31:17,640
Speaker 2: Have they in fact done that.

612
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 11: No, But if you look at the structure of American manufacturing,

613
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:23,240
Speaker 11: I think there's a sort of there's an idea that

614
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 11: lots of people have built up, and it's built up

615
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 11: from I think the sort of twenty years after the

616
00:31:28,440 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 11: Second World War in the US, where the US really

617
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 11: was a manufacturing type, it made huge amounts of items

618
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:39,720
Speaker 11: that it was dominant in. If you look at something

619
00:31:39,800 --> 00:31:43,280
Speaker 11: like cars, US production of cars was something like eighty

620
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:45,520
Speaker 11: or ninety percent of the global total, So you've got,

621
00:31:45,560 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 11: you know, a single city, Detroit making a majority of

622
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,520
Speaker 11: the world's cars. Nothing has worked like that for a

623
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:55,400
Speaker 11: long time. And if you listen to manufacturing groups, what

624
00:31:55,440 --> 00:31:58,120
Speaker 11: they'll say about the tariffs is is very very clear

625
00:31:58,280 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 11: that they need inputs, imported inputs to make the items

626
00:32:03,480 --> 00:32:07,480
Speaker 11: they sell, either that they sell domestically or that they export.

627
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,479
Speaker 11: And what there has been this very sort of shuden

628
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:14,680
Speaker 11: Freuder trend of is manufacturers coming out and saying things like, oh,

629
00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,000
Speaker 11: you know, you can just buy American. You know, we're

630
00:32:17,120 --> 00:32:20,600
Speaker 11: pro American label, we're pro American manufacturing, so we're happy

631
00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 11: with these tariffs, and then two three months down the

632
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 11: line actually looking at the way their businesses operate and saying, oh,

633
00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 11: actually it was a bit more complicated than that. It

634
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 11: turns out we import a lot more than we'd expected,

635
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 11: and you know, we're going to have to raise prices

636
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:37,200
Speaker 11: or we're having serious difficulty. There's big bottlenecks here. So

637
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 11: funnily enough, these American manufacturers are first people to suffer

638
00:32:41,360 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 11: because they're the most regular, immediate importers. You're going to

639
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:48,000
Speaker 11: see a sort of delayed reaction with consumers because the

640
00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 11: inventories take.

641
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 7: A while to work through. You know, this warehoused goods.

642
00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 11: A lot of people imported as many these items as

643
00:32:54,680 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 11: they could before the tariffs came in. But for the

644
00:32:56,880 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 11: smaller American manufacturing businesses that need a sort of constant

645
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 11: stream of this stuff, they've been hit pretty immediately by this.

646
00:33:02,640 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 11: So not only is it not good for them, but

647
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 11: in the grand scheme of things, it's pretty bad that

648
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:07,880
Speaker 11: some of the first victims.

649
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 1: I think everything's changing so much. I still don't understand

650
00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 1: what tariffs are on, what tariffs are off, Like, how

651
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:18,360
Speaker 1: are the tariffs with Lesotel give us this sort of

652
00:33:18,480 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 1: four one one on where we are with tariffs.

653
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:23,280
Speaker 11: Sure, so I think you've got to keep there's a

654
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 11: lot of good graphs going around. It's basically two lines

655
00:33:25,680 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 11: or two numbers you've got to keep in mind. One

656
00:33:28,840 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 11: is the number of where US tariffs are going to

657
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,480
Speaker 11: go to. So all of the you know, quote unquote

658
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:37,520
Speaker 11: deals coming out these sort of fairly flimsy agreements with

659
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 11: other countries for.

660
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:39,800
Speaker 7: Various tariff rates.

661
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 11: They'll come into force over time, depending on what they're

662
00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,760
Speaker 11: negotiated for. And for example, you know the EU, one's

663
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 11: going to be a flat fifteen percent on most things.

664
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,720
Speaker 11: Same with Japan it's going to be ten percent. Of

665
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 11: the UK it's going to vary. There's been a lot

666
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 11: of talk about a much higher number potentially for India.

667
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 7: Those are sort of coming in slowly over time.

668
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:03,800
Speaker 11: The the effective average tariff rate on US imports now

669
00:34:03,960 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 11: is about eight or nine percent and is steadily climbing

670
00:34:06,960 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 11: with each passing month. So the actual number that American businesses,

671
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 11: American consumers are going to pay is just ratcheting up

672
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 11: higher and higher as the various tariffs begin to properly

673
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 11: come into force. Those are the two things I think

674
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:22,879
Speaker 11: you need to really keep an eye on. So there's

675
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 11: lots of people investors who got very excited that, you know,

676
00:34:27,280 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 11: the tariff rates that were announced in April are being

677
00:34:30,160 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 11: reduced in various deals, or they're being delayed or whatever.

678
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,040
Speaker 11: But the reality on the ground and for actual American

679
00:34:37,360 --> 00:34:41,080
Speaker 11: customs American imports, is that tariffs are sort of ratcheting

680
00:34:41,160 --> 00:34:44,319
Speaker 11: up with each passing month, and you'll only see the

681
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,359
Speaker 11: full economic effect of that over time as these two

682
00:34:47,400 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 11: sort of lines join one another, and a lot of

683
00:34:50,840 --> 00:34:53,840
Speaker 11: that isn't currently being paid and it will be paid eventually.

684
00:34:54,120 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 1: Does the consumer end up having to pay these tariffs

685
00:34:58,360 --> 00:34:58,960
Speaker 1: right now?

686
00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: We're sort of in a moment where there has.

687
00:35:01,040 --> 00:35:05,120
Speaker 1: Been like a lot of things were already bought, and

688
00:35:05,160 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 1: then also the administration has bullied a lot of companies

689
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,760
Speaker 1: into not raising their prices or not being transparent about tariffs.

690
00:35:13,800 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 2: But that can go on forever, right.

691
00:35:15,719 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 11: Yeah, totally, And all the best literature on this, all

692
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:23,479
Speaker 11: the best economics literature shows effectively the same thing every time,

693
00:35:23,600 --> 00:35:27,319
Speaker 11: which is you might get some compression of the margins

694
00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:29,000
Speaker 11: of the companies that produce the goods.

695
00:35:29,280 --> 00:35:32,120
Speaker 7: So say you've got a European car maker, they.

696
00:35:32,080 --> 00:35:34,919
Speaker 11: Might take a small hit on their profit to keep

697
00:35:35,000 --> 00:35:38,879
Speaker 11: market access, and then you've got a distributor in the US,

698
00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,479
Speaker 11: they might take a small hit on their profits as well.

699
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 11: But in a long term tarists are overwhelmingly paid. The

700
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 11: incidence falls on the consumer that's buying them, right. This

701
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:53,080
Speaker 11: is one of the most consistent findings in economic literature,

702
00:35:53,080 --> 00:35:56,040
Speaker 11: full stop. It's one of the few things that you know,

703
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:59,720
Speaker 11: almost all economists really agree on, is where the incidents

704
00:35:59,719 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 11: of this falls. It falls on the consumer. This will

705
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 11: eventually feed through be the case. What I think is

706
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 11: interesting is how much sort of economic damage it has,

707
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:13,680
Speaker 11: and particularly how salient it is by the time of

708
00:36:13,760 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 11: the next presidential election, and I suppose by that midterms

709
00:36:16,640 --> 00:36:18,080
Speaker 11: as well. It presume it is going to be salient

710
00:36:18,120 --> 00:36:20,080
Speaker 11: at the time of the midterms, because I think that's

711
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 11: going to matter a lot to how long lasting the

712
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 11: tariffs are. You know, during the twenty twenty election, for example,

713
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 11: tariffs weren't an enormous issue in that election, and a

714
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:32,839
Speaker 11: lot of them ended up being kept, which is a

715
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,960
Speaker 11: sort of particular outcome. You know, it's quite difficult politically

716
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 11: to reduce tariffs. You have companies that have gotten used

717
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,480
Speaker 11: to them that have reoriented their supply chains.

718
00:36:41,800 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 7: It's quite a difficult political cell.

719
00:36:43,880 --> 00:36:46,080
Speaker 11: If it's a huge issue, If it causes a recession,

720
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:47,800
Speaker 11: and this is a big issue at the time of

721
00:36:47,840 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 11: the next year's election, then I can imagine some of

722
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:53,400
Speaker 11: these tariffs being repealed at some large international agreements to

723
00:36:53,440 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 11: do so. If there isn't a recession, if there's just

724
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 11: a sort of slow down, or it's a little bit

725
00:36:57,160 --> 00:37:00,960
Speaker 11: harder to identify the tariffs as the obvious cause, and

726
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,080
Speaker 11: it's not a big issue at the next election, then

727
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:06,960
Speaker 11: it's much harder to imagine a future administration really peeling

728
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,359
Speaker 11: these tariffs back, which is concerning if you're someone who thinks,

729
00:37:10,400 --> 00:37:12,399
Speaker 11: you know, the terrorists shouldn't have come in the first place,

730
00:37:12,480 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 11: that they should be reduced to free traded is relatively good.

731
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 7: That's a big concern.

732
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: Yet once the sort of prices go up, there's no

733
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: way to put the genie back in the vinyl. We

734
00:37:21,880 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 1: find ourselves in a situation where things are more expensive,

735
00:37:26,640 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: they will continue to be more expensive. This money will

736
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 1: be paid into some kind. It'll be like a corporate tax,

737
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 1: but it's really like a sales tax because it's a

738
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 1: tax on the things you buy, right, I mean, so,

739
00:37:40,760 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 1: isn't this just sort of like the same as a

740
00:37:43,120 --> 00:37:46,320
Speaker 1: flat sales tax and the money actually does, in fact

741
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 1: go to the government.

742
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 11: It's the same as a flat sales tax in the

743
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:53,800
Speaker 11: sense that it's a hit to consumption. The only problem

744
00:37:53,920 --> 00:37:57,080
Speaker 11: is it's distortionary, right that it only applies to production

745
00:37:57,200 --> 00:38:00,480
Speaker 11: done overseas. It doesn't apply to American product, which is

746
00:38:00,520 --> 00:38:02,600
Speaker 11: why economists tend not to like it when they're much

747
00:38:02,600 --> 00:38:05,960
Speaker 11: more in favor of sales and consumption taxes. You know,

748
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 11: there's lots of people that talk optimistically about how maybe

749
00:38:09,000 --> 00:38:11,920
Speaker 11: this could be tweaked into some sort of American vat.

750
00:38:12,360 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 11: I don't personally think that that's going to happen. I

751
00:38:14,480 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 11: think it looks quite difficult to happen. On the revenue

752
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,839
Speaker 11: raising part, this is the most difficult thing, right, which

753
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:24,080
Speaker 11: is the reality that despite the demand destruction they're here

754
00:38:24,120 --> 00:38:27,799
Speaker 11: to the American consumer, the damage the supply chains, this

755
00:38:27,960 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 11: is going to raise revenue. It is going to raise

756
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 11: hundreds of billions of dollars of revenue, and it's going

757
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 11: to be very, very difficult for any future administration to

758
00:38:36,080 --> 00:38:39,720
Speaker 11: give that up. America runs a six to seven percent

759
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 11: of GDP deficit, which at a time of relatively full

760
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 11: employment in peacetime, there's no lockdowns going on at the moment.

761
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,440
Speaker 11: This is an insanely large amount of money, and the

762
00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 11: idea of a future administration coming in and saying we're

763
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:58,320
Speaker 11: going to volunteer to get rid of several hundred billion

764
00:38:58,320 --> 00:39:01,160
Speaker 11: dollars a tax revenue is really really difficult to mention.

765
00:39:01,719 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 11: That will be one of the biggest problems in sort

766
00:39:04,600 --> 00:39:06,719
Speaker 11: of taking a step back where we are right now.

767
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 1: But that assumes that this doesn't lead to a financial crisis.

768
00:39:11,719 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean definitely, it presumes I think if you

769
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:17,560
Speaker 11: get a recession and you get sort of public sentiment

770
00:39:17,800 --> 00:39:19,560
Speaker 11: that this is hugely damaging.

771
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 7: But yeah, yeah, absolutely.

772
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,359
Speaker 1: It's hard for me to imagine that most Americans are

773
00:39:25,360 --> 00:39:29,040
Speaker 1: going to eat a twenty five hundred dollars increase in

774
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,720
Speaker 1: all their expenses and that they a have the money

775
00:39:32,719 --> 00:39:35,400
Speaker 1: for it. I think the biggest problem for trumpsm in

776
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:38,160
Speaker 1: some way is that it's not going to work, so

777
00:39:38,560 --> 00:39:40,879
Speaker 1: these people aren't going to be able to afford it. Oh,

778
00:39:40,920 --> 00:39:42,399
Speaker 1: I was going to say the biggest problem with trump

779
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:46,400
Speaker 1: Ism is that the public market seem to love him

780
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,279
Speaker 1: no matter what he does, they seem to just not

781
00:39:49,400 --> 00:39:53,359
Speaker 1: react to inflation. And I think that is part of

782
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,400
Speaker 1: why we're getting so much trouble.

783
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 11: Yeah, and I think part of that is down to

784
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:00,360
Speaker 11: the fact that you have these two stories going on

785
00:40:00,440 --> 00:40:03,080
Speaker 11: at the moment, right, these two narratives, one of which

786
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:08,400
Speaker 11: is you've got an American economy that is both inflation

787
00:40:08,480 --> 00:40:12,880
Speaker 11: looks relatively sticky, the labor markets no longer improving in

788
00:40:12,880 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 11: a significant way, so you'd likely get a.

789
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:15,919
Speaker 7: Sort of growth slow down.

790
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 11: At the same time, you've got the tariffs really beginning

791
00:40:18,960 --> 00:40:21,479
Speaker 11: to bite, and we know that they're going to bite

792
00:40:21,560 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 11: further and further.

793
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 7: Down the line.

794
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,319
Speaker 11: And the fact that this is, you know, a sort

795
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:30,160
Speaker 11: of as close to the central political issue for the

796
00:40:30,200 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 11: president as you could possibly get. Right, this is a

797
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,160
Speaker 11: consistent view that you's had for forty years on trade

798
00:40:36,200 --> 00:40:36,880
Speaker 11: related stuff.

799
00:40:36,880 --> 00:40:38,239
Speaker 7: There's no way they're budgeting from this.

800
00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:40,839
Speaker 11: At the same time, you are this other narrative, which

801
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,719
Speaker 11: is what's happening in financial markets, which is all of

802
00:40:43,719 --> 00:40:46,920
Speaker 11: these massive tech companies are going to be the primary benefits,

803
00:40:47,400 --> 00:40:51,799
Speaker 11: by a primary beneficiaries from this colossal AI build out

804
00:40:51,800 --> 00:40:54,319
Speaker 11: and the expansion of AI related stuff. So you have

805
00:40:54,400 --> 00:40:57,800
Speaker 11: this weird sort of the reality of what is happening

806
00:40:57,880 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 11: right now I think everyone would agree does look great,

807
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:03,719
Speaker 11: and then the vision of what's going to happen in

808
00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 11: the future it seems extremely rosy and interesting and positive.

809
00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:10,719
Speaker 11: And that's why you have this huge market disconnect from

810
00:41:10,760 --> 00:41:14,839
Speaker 11: I think sentiment and perhaps what's happening in the real

811
00:41:14,880 --> 00:41:18,319
Speaker 11: economy right now. It is a huge gap, and it's

812
00:41:18,320 --> 00:41:21,200
Speaker 11: difficult to see that getting resolved actually unless the AI

813
00:41:21,400 --> 00:41:23,520
Speaker 11: story really sort of bursts.

814
00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:26,800
Speaker 1: Because right now the stocks that are driving the market

815
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 1: higher are these tech stocks. It feels like AI could

816
00:41:30,520 --> 00:41:35,640
Speaker 1: be just a sort of endless cycle of wells creation.

817
00:41:36,320 --> 00:41:40,760
Speaker 1: It won't matter that manufacturing and is in the toilet,

818
00:41:40,800 --> 00:41:45,040
Speaker 1: but sooner or later consumer spending will fall to such

819
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,279
Speaker 1: a level that it will be recessionary.

820
00:41:47,560 --> 00:41:48,480
Speaker 7: That's the big question.

821
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:50,759
Speaker 11: And I think basically what's happening in the markets in

822
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:54,319
Speaker 11: the moment is very much the presumption that we don't

823
00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:56,839
Speaker 11: get a recession. The presumption is that you might get

824
00:41:56,840 --> 00:41:59,800
Speaker 11: a slow down, but no bigger recession, no financial crisis.

825
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 11: This stuff is all just going to be worked for

826
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,959
Speaker 11: over time. I no, we're heading into such a bright

827
00:42:04,040 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 11: future and that the AI build out and stuff is

828
00:42:06,239 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 11: going to be so expansiory that it's not going to

829
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,120
Speaker 11: matter as much. Now, I would say that's the sort

830
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:15,399
Speaker 11: of bold bet the markers come back a lot more

831
00:42:15,400 --> 00:42:17,120
Speaker 11: than I would have expected to, even in a sort

832
00:42:17,120 --> 00:42:19,720
Speaker 11: of recovery scenario. Like remember the last time we spoke,

833
00:42:19,840 --> 00:42:22,720
Speaker 11: and remember how this looked dead, And where we are now.

834
00:42:22,960 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 11: You know the S and P's record highs. You know,

835
00:42:26,160 --> 00:42:28,640
Speaker 11: pretty much every day a lot of these tech stocks

836
00:42:28,640 --> 00:42:31,799
Speaker 11: have rallied enormously this year. It just feels like a

837
00:42:31,800 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 11: different universe to where we were in the middle of April.

838
00:42:34,640 --> 00:42:37,000
Speaker 11: Despite the fact that the reason things went bad in

839
00:42:37,040 --> 00:42:39,759
Speaker 11: the middle of April was the tariff stuff, and on

840
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,600
Speaker 11: that front, not all that much has changed. You know,

841
00:42:42,640 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 11: You've had a bit of a climbed up, but you're

842
00:42:44,400 --> 00:42:46,160
Speaker 11: still going to have the highest tariffs that you've had

843
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 11: in many, many decades in the US. It's still going

844
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,319
Speaker 11: to squeeze consumer spending. You're still going to wind up

845
00:42:51,520 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 11: US allies, it's still going to wreck supply chains that

846
00:42:54,760 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 11: exist at the moment. And yet everyone the narrative has

847
00:42:57,480 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 11: shifted when people have sort of decided they don't care

848
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 11: so much about this and it can all be worked through,

849
00:43:01,760 --> 00:43:05,200
Speaker 11: and it sort of handwaving situation relative to the very

850
00:43:05,200 --> 00:43:07,920
Speaker 11: optimistic future for these big tech companies.

851
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 2: It seems bad.

852
00:43:09,239 --> 00:43:12,359
Speaker 7: It's tough. If they're right about the AI stuff, then

853
00:43:12,440 --> 00:43:13,440
Speaker 7: maybe it doesn't.

854
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:15,000
Speaker 11: Matter, right if you look at the stocks, when you

855
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,080
Speaker 11: look at the companies that are really affected by this stuff,

856
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 11: it's not like Nike, which is just sort of ruined

857
00:43:20,080 --> 00:43:23,279
Speaker 11: by tarifs like these a serious, serious damage to a

858
00:43:23,320 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 11: major importing business. It's not like they're trading at like

859
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,399
Speaker 11: distant record highs and doing incredibly well.

860
00:43:29,520 --> 00:43:30,480
Speaker 7: It's all these.

861
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:36,280
Speaker 11: Companies that are like Nvidio, like Meta, like Google, where

862
00:43:36,800 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 11: you know they have exposure overseas, but it's mostly through

863
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 11: selling digital services to foreigners, right, it's not they have

864
00:43:43,840 --> 00:43:47,439
Speaker 11: to bring in huge amounts of material that goes through

865
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:50,719
Speaker 11: customs into the country and basically it's just allowed this

866
00:43:50,800 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 11: sort of Yeah, this total bifurcation in people's views of

867
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:54,400
Speaker 11: what's happening.

868
00:43:54,520 --> 00:43:57,839
Speaker 2: It's really interesting that one of the other trade problems

869
00:43:58,160 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 2: is chemicals.

870
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 1: Is the mens is the China's punishing of the United States.

871
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,360
Speaker 1: Can you talk us through the danger of these because

872
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 1: so China has these rare earth minerals who can't get

873
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:11,919
Speaker 1: them anywhere else.

874
00:44:12,360 --> 00:44:15,120
Speaker 2: They are not shipping them to the States. I mean,

875
00:44:15,160 --> 00:44:16,160
Speaker 2: how does that end?

876
00:44:16,560 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 7: It's tough.

877
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 11: I mean, basically, this has been I think a much

878
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 11: stronger card for Chinese negotiators in the trade negotiations than

879
00:44:25,480 --> 00:44:29,480
Speaker 11: people had understood before Trump came back into office. I

880
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,480
Speaker 11: think the sort of conventional thinking was that the US

881
00:44:32,560 --> 00:44:35,960
Speaker 11: is actually able to squeeze Chinese negotiators more than in

882
00:44:36,000 --> 00:44:39,840
Speaker 11: the other direction because Chinese producers sell so much more

883
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 11: to the US than goes in the other direction. But

884
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:45,719
Speaker 11: actually things have changed even since the first Trump administration,

885
00:44:45,840 --> 00:44:48,040
Speaker 11: and certainly since you know a lot of people set

886
00:44:48,080 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 11: their views of what Chinese manufacturing in Chinese trade looks

887
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 11: like sort of twenty years ago. China does have a

888
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 11: sort of critical dominance in some of these industries. You know,

889
00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,040
Speaker 11: when you talk about rare as things like magne and

890
00:45:00,080 --> 00:45:04,800
Speaker 11: that's important in various kinds of industry. They have built

891
00:45:04,800 --> 00:45:08,040
Speaker 11: a supply chain that means they're basically the only providers

892
00:45:08,040 --> 00:45:08,800
Speaker 11: of these things.

893
00:45:09,120 --> 00:45:09,440
Speaker 7: Now.

894
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:14,439
Speaker 11: I think a enlightened US trade policy could have seen

895
00:45:14,480 --> 00:45:19,279
Speaker 11: this coming quite a long time ago. You know, there

896
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:24,160
Speaker 11: are the other sort of industrial and commodity exporting countries

897
00:45:24,400 --> 00:45:28,280
Speaker 11: in Asia which are either neutral or pretty close security

898
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:30,839
Speaker 11: partners with the US, I think would have been very

899
00:45:30,920 --> 00:45:34,080
Speaker 11: happy over time, in exchange for some market access to

900
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:38,320
Speaker 11: the US, to have engaged in the establishment of separate

901
00:45:38,360 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 11: supply chains to these things, because often when we talk

902
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 11: about rare earths, it's not that the actual commodity is

903
00:45:43,440 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 11: wildly rare, and it's certainly not often that the commodity

904
00:45:47,080 --> 00:45:50,200
Speaker 11: is only found in the ground in China. This is

905
00:45:50,239 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 11: a question of processing things that are found in lots

906
00:45:53,680 --> 00:45:56,120
Speaker 11: of different places, or even looking for them in the

907
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 11: first place. So it's not something that's sort of a

908
00:45:59,040 --> 00:46:02,200
Speaker 11: facet of nature that China has to be dominant in

909
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 11: these areas. There is a lack of planning, and you know,

910
00:46:05,520 --> 00:46:07,640
Speaker 11: I lived in Singapore and Hong Kong for a long time.

911
00:46:08,280 --> 00:46:11,080
Speaker 11: I would travel to Korea and Japan and all over

912
00:46:11,120 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 11: the place, and you'd have manufacturers and politicians gripe that,

913
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:18,640
Speaker 11: you know, why were the US government helpers on this stuff?

914
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 11: Why can't we get some sort of partnership going on?

915
00:46:21,840 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 11: And it didn't seem, honestly like anything that use. Certainly,

916
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,359
Speaker 11: the last Trump administration was interesting. It didn't always seem

917
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:29,640
Speaker 11: like the Biden administration was that interested in that side

918
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,920
Speaker 11: of things. In terms of the realignment on trade. They

919
00:46:32,920 --> 00:46:35,880
Speaker 11: were very interested in having these companies invest in the US,

920
00:46:36,400 --> 00:46:40,440
Speaker 11: but less so in establishing as sort of relationship in Asia.

921
00:46:40,600 --> 00:46:42,560
Speaker 7: So that was always very difficult.

922
00:46:42,239 --> 00:46:44,960
Speaker 11: And I think it's part of what's given China this

923
00:46:45,120 --> 00:46:49,160
Speaker 11: very strong hand on the rare's issue, which makes life

924
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 11: difficult for American manufacturers as well. You know, these are

925
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,080
Speaker 11: really really severe bottlenecks if they can't get hold of them,

926
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 11: and then not supply chase that you can whip up overnight.

927
00:46:57,920 --> 00:46:59,760
Speaker 11: These are things that people should have been thinking about

928
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:01,640
Speaker 11: and engaging in a little time ago.

929
00:47:02,160 --> 00:47:04,160
Speaker 2: Mike Bird, thank Yale.

930
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:05,360
Speaker 7: Thank you very much.

931
00:47:07,480 --> 00:47:11,920
Speaker 2: No moment ou Jesse Cannon, so male.

932
00:47:12,000 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 3: He's some of the most dismaying news we've had come

933
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 3: out of Washington in a while. Is RFK Junior deciding

934
00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,440
Speaker 3: that his pet project to get rid of mRNA vaccines

935
00:47:22,840 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 3: has gone through?

936
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:25,600
Speaker 4: He's getting rid of them? What are you seeing here?

937
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:30,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you'll remember that RFK Junior said he wasn't

938
00:47:30,120 --> 00:47:33,880
Speaker 1: going to do that, He wasn't going to take away vaccine.

939
00:47:33,960 --> 00:47:38,160
Speaker 1: So far he's removed the COVID vaccine recommendation, he's fired

940
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:42,840
Speaker 1: the CDC Vaccine Committee, he's replaced scientists with anti vaxers,

941
00:47:42,880 --> 00:47:47,840
Speaker 1: he's canceled vaccine hesitancy research, and he's pulled five hundred

942
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:52,680
Speaker 1: million dollars in mRNA vaccine research. And he's pulled five

943
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:57,200
Speaker 1: hundred million dollars in r ofm A research. So I

944
00:47:57,239 --> 00:47:59,759
Speaker 1: think he is in fact an anti vax And by

945
00:47:59,800 --> 00:48:04,600
Speaker 1: the way, mRNA vaccines are the future of fighting cancer.

946
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:06,719
Speaker 2: So there we go.

947
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:11,879
Speaker 1: That's it for this episode of Fast Politics. Tune in

948
00:48:12,200 --> 00:48:17,640
Speaker 1: every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday to hear the best

949
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:22,040
Speaker 1: minds and politics make sense of all this chaos. If

950
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 1: you enjoy this podcast, please send it to a friend

951
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:27,160
Speaker 1: and keep the conversation going.

952
00:48:27,640 --> 00:48:28,760
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening.