1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. A lot for the 7 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:27,160 Speaker 1: markets to digest here right in the teeth of earning season. 8 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:30,479 Speaker 1: We've got the ECB meeting tomorrow, the FED. We're gonna 9 00:00:30,480 --> 00:00:33,360 Speaker 1: get at something in July, I believe, is the dates 10 00:00:33,360 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: of lots for this market to digest. To take a 11 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:39,480 Speaker 1: step back and put it on into perspective, Luca Paolini, 12 00:00:39,640 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: chief strategist for pick Ta Asset Management based in London. 13 00:00:43,440 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: He joins us, Luca, as we stand back here and 14 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,159 Speaker 1: start to really get into the teeth of this earning season. 15 00:00:49,920 --> 00:00:52,279 Speaker 1: What do you expect to hear from companies? What are 16 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:54,680 Speaker 1: you looking for? What are you kind of paying attention 17 00:00:54,720 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: to during these earnest conference calls that we're all listening to. 18 00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: What morning everyone, Well, I think you know the we 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:05,520 Speaker 1: tend to focus a lot on what company is gonna 20 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:09,000 Speaker 1: tell us about the consumer, I think we should actually 21 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:13,199 Speaker 1: look at investment because investment normally is the real driver 22 00:01:13,360 --> 00:01:16,160 Speaker 1: would really create a recession. So I think from the 23 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:19,160 Speaker 1: consumer we know pretty much the fundamentals. We know what 24 00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: can go right, what can wrong. I think the real 25 00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:23,720 Speaker 1: for me the question mark and what I want to 26 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 1: know if companies are holding back on investment, if they 27 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 1: are reduced in accounts, and I think in this especially 28 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:34,000 Speaker 1: discerning season, we actually expectations are quite low. I want 29 00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:36,559 Speaker 1: to see the guidance and when I see companies telling 30 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:39,760 Speaker 1: us we are company enough or not company enough to 31 00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:45,800 Speaker 1: basically expand, to increase basically to two to hire people, 32 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:48,160 Speaker 1: and that's for me, would be the focus because I 33 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: think on the consumer we pretty much know the story. 34 00:01:50,480 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 1: I think for on investments it's being very strong. And 35 00:01:53,520 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 1: I think this is to me is the key things 36 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,440 Speaker 1: to watch, not so much the residence or not of 37 00:01:58,480 --> 00:02:02,400 Speaker 1: the consumer. Are I haven't seen evidence that companies are 38 00:02:03,000 --> 00:02:08,200 Speaker 1: holding path, that they're waiting to make that decision. And 39 00:02:08,360 --> 00:02:11,680 Speaker 1: on the on the fringe, certainly on the West Coast, 40 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:15,120 Speaker 1: starting to reduce at least the pace of hiring or 41 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 1: even cut back on headcount. Well we've seen obviously apple 42 00:02:19,240 --> 00:02:23,079 Speaker 1: in the data. When you look at for example, capital 43 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:25,880 Speaker 1: good orders, I seen an outcome high. What is what 44 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:31,040 Speaker 1: has happened though that investment expectations or plans have been 45 00:02:31,120 --> 00:02:34,120 Speaker 1: cut significantly, So again there is this kind of the 46 00:02:34,200 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: data still looks very, very solid. I think, though I 47 00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: can see at the margin um some significant potentially reduction investment. 48 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 1: But again that's where that's why I'm waiting for companies 49 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,440 Speaker 1: to tell us, because I think it's clear that momentum 50 00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: is lowing. But it's also clear that you know, you 51 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:54,359 Speaker 1: don't want to basically get rid of people, and it's 52 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 1: so difficult then to rehire them. So I think it's 53 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 1: very important for me to have a sense if companies 54 00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:01,880 Speaker 1: are confident enough and and I think that's the key point. 55 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,040 Speaker 1: Looka here at Bloomberg, we really take a global view. 56 00:03:05,080 --> 00:03:08,160 Speaker 1: Our audience takes a global view. We have important day 57 00:03:08,320 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 1: from the European Central Bank tomorrow. What are you looking for? UM? 58 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,960 Speaker 1: You know, the European Central Bank as this incredible ability 59 00:03:17,960 --> 00:03:21,680 Speaker 1: to disappoint UM. In the past two occasion when they 60 00:03:21,840 --> 00:03:24,679 Speaker 1: create in July we had a recession. I think this 61 00:03:24,800 --> 00:03:27,280 Speaker 1: time they'll have no other choice. I don't think that 62 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,320 Speaker 1: the interest rate, I I think it's more like, to 63 00:03:30,360 --> 00:03:32,239 Speaker 1: be honest, for me, it's more likely to be fifty 64 00:03:32,240 --> 00:03:35,800 Speaker 1: bus this point, because I think they want to send 65 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: the message that they have in prestion under control, and 66 00:03:38,040 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 1: at the same time they want to send a signal 67 00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: that they're there to help the terriphery. So probably that 68 00:03:42,920 --> 00:03:46,480 Speaker 1: that's a compromise that will emerge from from the council. 69 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:49,400 Speaker 1: Twenty five or fifty bus point, I think it's pretty 70 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: much the same. I don't think it would change anything. 71 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: But I think also they're they're forced to take action, 72 00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: you know, with the Europe pretty much a parity inflation 73 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:00,520 Speaker 1: going through the roof, I think that to take action, 74 00:04:00,560 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: But I don't think it's going to be a huge 75 00:04:02,280 --> 00:04:04,600 Speaker 1: market mover. I don't think that would make a big, big, big, 76 00:04:04,720 --> 00:04:06,840 Speaker 1: big difference for markets, to be honest with you. We 77 00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 1: saw the euro at least rally back through a dollar 78 00:04:09,160 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: up to one oh three, one or two. Right now, 79 00:04:12,120 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: Um does that kind of hold or do you see 80 00:04:14,720 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: continued dollar strength here? I mean I'm looking across the spectrum. 81 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,159 Speaker 1: Right one, we're back up to the pound. Um still 82 00:04:21,200 --> 00:04:24,280 Speaker 1: one thirty eight for the end, so still incredible weakness there. 83 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:28,600 Speaker 1: But does does d x Y continue to rise? But 84 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:31,920 Speaker 1: I I do believe that the dollar is very very 85 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:36,600 Speaker 1: close to a major peak, secretical and and and also strategic. 86 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,040 Speaker 1: But you need, though, I think, to two things. What 87 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:43,120 Speaker 1: clear indication that you have inflation of peak. I think 88 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:45,520 Speaker 1: it does, but this is not the view of everyone. 89 00:04:46,160 --> 00:04:49,719 Speaker 1: And second one we need to see a clear reacceleration 90 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: in China, where the evidence is also not for people, 91 00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:55,040 Speaker 1: is strong. So I do believe, and you'll be surprised 92 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 1: at what I'm saying, is that the currency which has 93 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:59,960 Speaker 1: them what upside here is the end, the end, because 94 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:02,919 Speaker 1: the end that's been effectively killed by what but interest 95 00:05:03,000 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: rate expectations going up everywhere else apart from Japan. And 96 00:05:07,880 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: and if the reason if the global economies leaps into 97 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 1: recession the interest really differential, we go actually in favor 98 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,200 Speaker 1: of Japan. And given that the expectation are solo and 99 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 1: evaluations were attractive, I think and all sounds strange that 100 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,520 Speaker 1: the Japanese end could be the big surprise in the 101 00:05:24,520 --> 00:05:26,240 Speaker 1: next three to six months for the year. I think 102 00:05:26,480 --> 00:05:29,640 Speaker 1: there are too many risks in terms of the war 103 00:05:29,760 --> 00:05:33,599 Speaker 1: in Ukraine, d C be Italy I think it's probably 104 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: still a little bit too early to be bullish on 105 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,040 Speaker 1: the Europe. Look at real quick at thirty seconds happened 106 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:40,360 Speaker 1: fixed income. It's been a brutal first half of the year. 107 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:43,919 Speaker 1: Any opportunities there, Yes, there are, There are in some 108 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:47,279 Speaker 1: emerging markets like Brazil. I think also in some parts 109 00:05:47,320 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 1: of the of the credit market. Corporate depth, especially in 110 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 1: the US, Triple A names saved names, good yelds. I 111 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: think still solid in a way, solely fundamental. Yeah, we 112 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 1: start to see some values again, especially in the US 113 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 1: and some parts of YEM, but we stay away from Europe. 114 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,719 Speaker 1: All right, Luca, great stuff. Always appreciate getting your perspective. 115 00:06:08,279 --> 00:06:12,359 Speaker 1: Luca Paolini, chief strategist for picked A Asset Management. He 116 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:19,520 Speaker 1: is based in London. Why does everyone hate rats so much? 117 00:06:21,120 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: Are they worse than squirrels or chipmunks? Yes? What did 118 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,960 Speaker 1: you say? Did you say poop? Yeah? I don't think 119 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: you can say that. No, I'm not sure, but we'll check. 120 00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:37,000 Speaker 1: Ken Fell. You says, maybe that's okay, okay. Our director, 121 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: our global director, Ken Fellow says, you can, but let's not. 122 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: Let's not. Let's know that's a brutal story, all right, 123 00:06:43,600 --> 00:06:45,560 Speaker 1: Greg Jarrett, thank you so much. Here are we got 124 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,560 Speaker 1: a Federal Reserve meeting coming up, said July. I think 125 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: that's the big one, Jennifer Leasy, and your economist, managing 126 00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: director of Demo Capital Markets joins us. Jennifer, I mean 127 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: we're in the midst of earning season. That's kind of 128 00:06:55,440 --> 00:06:59,800 Speaker 1: got investors intention here. Um, but again, we know that 129 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 1: the real focus is on this Federal Reserve as we 130 00:07:03,040 --> 00:07:07,120 Speaker 1: think about inflation, as we think about recession. What do 131 00:07:07,240 --> 00:07:11,560 Speaker 1: you expect from our federal reserve? Good morning? And by 132 00:07:11,560 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: the way, just on one funn'l know what you're saying earlier, 133 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:18,520 Speaker 1: how about raccoons? Yes, for the FT, I mean so 134 00:07:18,640 --> 00:07:20,840 Speaker 1: for the Federal Reserve, I mean we so we expect 135 00:07:20,960 --> 00:07:25,160 Speaker 1: a seventy five basis point Ray hike, Um, jesus next 136 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,920 Speaker 1: we call already, UM. I don't think um a lot 137 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:30,360 Speaker 1: of people anymore are thinking about a risk of a 138 00:07:30,440 --> 00:07:33,320 Speaker 1: hundred basis point move, just given that we've seen the 139 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:36,160 Speaker 1: softer data lately. UM. In terms of what he the 140 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 1: Fed Area is going to say, I think he's I 141 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:42,560 Speaker 1: would expect him to soften his um, his his points 142 00:07:42,560 --> 00:07:44,440 Speaker 1: about the economy. I mean, last time we heard from 143 00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: him was that was in Centrup, Portugal, and he was 144 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: talking about how the US economy was in strong shape 145 00:07:50,400 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 1: and well positioned to withstand tighter monetary policy. And I 146 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:56,560 Speaker 1: still think that second point is probably still valid. But 147 00:07:56,840 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 1: you know, we have again seen some weakening, you know, 148 00:07:59,560 --> 00:08:03,240 Speaker 1: for example in the housing market, some slightly softer you 149 00:08:03,280 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: know UM retail sales data last week, and those are 150 00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: the pieces of data that Governor Waller was what was 151 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,520 Speaker 1: talking about referring to in terms of what he was 152 00:08:12,560 --> 00:08:14,960 Speaker 1: going to how he was going to vote next week. 153 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:18,360 Speaker 1: So I think centified basis points is probably the base 154 00:08:18,440 --> 00:08:21,600 Speaker 1: case UM right now, and maybe soft softening is too 155 00:08:21,640 --> 00:08:23,480 Speaker 1: a little bit on the economy. By the way, I 156 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,560 Speaker 1: have a bet with Critty Gupta um dinner of her 157 00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:30,800 Speaker 1: choice that inflation has peaked. I think it. I think 158 00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,720 Speaker 1: nine point one percent was the high rating for cp I. 159 00:08:33,760 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: Do you think I'm at risk of losing that bet? Boy? 160 00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: I hope it is UM. But I think over the 161 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,360 Speaker 1: next few months the the yar year comfortables might get 162 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:46,280 Speaker 1: a little tougher UM. But I think for the July 163 00:08:46,480 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: CPI UM report probably gonna see it pulled back, probably 164 00:08:50,960 --> 00:08:53,439 Speaker 1: probably below the nine percent level, just given that gas 165 00:08:53,440 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 1: prices to have. You know, we had some relief on 166 00:08:55,800 --> 00:09:00,000 Speaker 1: the on that front at least, but again, broader measures, 167 00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: I mean broader measures in terms of the core measures 168 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,120 Speaker 1: are still quite elevated as well. So I don't know 169 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:06,880 Speaker 1: if they have completely hit the peak. But we've been 170 00:09:06,880 --> 00:09:09,959 Speaker 1: saying Q three and I think I've been saying September ish, 171 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: so I'm sort of waffling on that front, but you 172 00:09:12,080 --> 00:09:16,440 Speaker 1: know that I'm really hoping that n would be the peak. Jennifer, 173 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:18,679 Speaker 1: what do you make of this U S dollar? I mean, 174 00:09:18,720 --> 00:09:20,040 Speaker 1: it's the highest if you look at the d X 175 00:09:20,160 --> 00:09:22,640 Speaker 1: Y and next the highest and almost twenty years kind 176 00:09:22,679 --> 00:09:25,440 Speaker 1: of thing they almos put that into perspective and kind 177 00:09:25,440 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: of how you think things may play out. Don't afford. 178 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:30,320 Speaker 1: It's got a lot of it still has a lot 179 00:09:30,360 --> 00:09:32,520 Speaker 1: of tail winds behind it, just given you know how 180 00:09:32,559 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: aggressive the FED is planning is still planning to be, 181 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:39,079 Speaker 1: you know, um raising rates expeditiously, and then when you're 182 00:09:39,080 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 1: looking at it versus you know, for example, the euro 183 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 1: even though you know everyone's expecting or we are all 184 00:09:43,760 --> 00:09:46,320 Speaker 1: expecting the easy of you to do something tomorrow, you know, 185 00:09:46,400 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 1: as your last guest said, you know, they have a 186 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:51,599 Speaker 1: habit of disappointing. Um. You know, this is probably a 187 00:09:51,600 --> 00:09:54,080 Speaker 1: great opportunity for them to prove everybody wrong. But if 188 00:09:54,120 --> 00:09:55,960 Speaker 1: they don't, you know, we could see you know, the 189 00:09:56,000 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: euro dip below parody again. Um, the pound. Also, it 190 00:10:00,360 --> 00:10:01,959 Speaker 1: is getting a little bit of a tailwind this morning, 191 00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:03,920 Speaker 1: but at the same time it also has a lot 192 00:10:03,960 --> 00:10:07,959 Speaker 1: of headwinds facing it with potentially eleven percent inflation coming up, 193 00:10:08,080 --> 00:10:10,640 Speaker 1: and of course you know, much slower growth in the 194 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:13,439 Speaker 1: second half with inflation so high. So I think because 195 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: of that, just us all broadly, I think still has 196 00:10:16,160 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 1: some life left in it. By the way, there are 197 00:10:18,400 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 1: many words we cannot use on radio to describe the 198 00:10:22,440 --> 00:10:28,079 Speaker 1: European situation this winter. How much trouble is that economy 199 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 1: in It's uh, that's one reach one area that I'm 200 00:10:32,880 --> 00:10:36,600 Speaker 1: very concerned about, just because of that huge heavy reliance 201 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:39,679 Speaker 1: for too long, um on Russian energy. And even though 202 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: they are now finally trying to rid themselves of that 203 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 1: reliance by cutting cutting their their their dependents by two 204 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: thirds by the end of the year. You know, I 205 00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:48,959 Speaker 1: would consume you say, good luck with that trying to 206 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 1: build all those lergy terminals when you're still having a 207 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: big shortage of supplies and of labor. Um. But this 208 00:10:55,679 --> 00:10:57,400 Speaker 1: is the one point in time in my life I 209 00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,600 Speaker 1: will say that maybe it's a good thing that there's 210 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,559 Speaker 1: uh climate change um and global warming because hopefully the 211 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 1: winter will not be really really bad and you know, 212 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:10,199 Speaker 1: and so the gas usage will not be as high 213 00:11:10,240 --> 00:11:12,720 Speaker 1: as you know as the worst case scenario. But you know, 214 00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: this is one area that that for sure, I'm quite 215 00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 1: concerned about. Thirty seconds left gen Um, what's your recession 216 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:27,199 Speaker 1: kind of expectation? Is it above the US? For the US? Yeah, um, 217 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,319 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit over Um. We actually have a 218 00:11:30,720 --> 00:11:34,840 Speaker 1: negative sign pencilion for the early next year. Um. Maybe 219 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,439 Speaker 1: not you know your traditional um two quarters in a 220 00:11:37,520 --> 00:11:40,640 Speaker 1: row of negative growth, but certainly much flower growth, almost 221 00:11:40,679 --> 00:11:42,920 Speaker 1: like a growth recession, as we have unemployment taking up 222 00:11:42,920 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 1: a little bit as well towards the end of this 223 00:11:44,600 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: year and next. All right, Jennifer Lee, thank you so much. 224 00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:50,160 Speaker 1: We always appreciate getting your thoughts here. Jennifer Lee, Senior 225 00:11:50,200 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: Economist and Managing director bemo Accoumpital Markets. Again the ECB 226 00:11:55,120 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: meeting tomorrow, Bloomberg surveillance will be all over that in 227 00:11:58,320 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: your early morning coverage you can rushed to short there 228 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,160 Speaker 1: and then of course we will definitely overcover the ECB. 229 00:12:04,480 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: We love the e c B. Well, Christine looks some 230 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: of us love it. Yeah, some of us love it. 231 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:13,280 Speaker 1: But again, certainly for European listeners and viewers, a big, 232 00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:20,600 Speaker 1: big meeting tomorrow will certainly have all that. Looking at Netflix, 233 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: I reported some numbers last night. I think the takeaway 234 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 1: was it could have been worse. Um. Looking at the stock, 235 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:29,360 Speaker 1: the good news is it's up four percent today. The 236 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:33,760 Speaker 1: bad news is down on a year to date basis. 237 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:36,400 Speaker 1: Let's break it all down with Mark Douglas, President CEO 238 00:12:36,440 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 1: of Mountain. Mountain is an advertising software company enabling brands 239 00:12:40,600 --> 00:12:44,480 Speaker 1: to drive measurable conversions, revenue and site visits. So Mark 240 00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:51,760 Speaker 1: owned by owned by Ryan Reynolds, acquired Ryan Reynolds Creative Agency. Okay, 241 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: so Mark, how do we say this? I guess not 242 00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:59,440 Speaker 1: owned by but you got together with Ryan Reynolds. Yeah, 243 00:12:59,600 --> 00:13:03,200 Speaker 1: Ryan um chief creative officer or a Mountain. So he 244 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:06,199 Speaker 1: Um has made a lot of movies and I didn't 245 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: want to do some other things, and he and I 246 00:13:09,280 --> 00:13:12,640 Speaker 1: teamed up and he worked in Mountain working with a 247 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 1: lot of our customers and obviously it's business strategy. So 248 00:13:16,320 --> 00:13:19,240 Speaker 1: it's see I said it wrong. I said Mountain was 249 00:13:19,240 --> 00:13:23,240 Speaker 1: owned by Ryan Reynolds. Actually Mountain bought Ryan Reynolds exactly 250 00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 1: exactly the work maximum method, Yeah, maximum effort. I'm kidding, 251 00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:31,080 Speaker 1: all right, Mark, So again Netflix numbers last You know, 252 00:13:31,120 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: the tide has changed here. It's not, you know, grow 253 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:35,719 Speaker 1: at a breakneck speed kind of thing. They're trying to 254 00:13:35,760 --> 00:13:38,080 Speaker 1: adjust to a new world order in terms of a 255 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,040 Speaker 1: lot more competition that maybe the easy growth in terms 256 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,800 Speaker 1: of subscriber growth is is done. What did you take 257 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:47,320 Speaker 1: away from their results last night? Well, I think the 258 00:13:47,400 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 1: one thing to take away is they still are twice 259 00:13:49,920 --> 00:13:52,320 Speaker 1: as large as any of the competitors in terms of 260 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:57,560 Speaker 1: number of subscribers. So the number of subscribers is clearly slowed. 261 00:13:57,760 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: I think Netflix people are are responding. Actually I think 262 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,559 Speaker 1: a bit more to how quickly they're responding, announcing the 263 00:14:05,640 --> 00:14:10,360 Speaker 1: ads business, announcing um new ways of doing passwords sharing 264 00:14:10,520 --> 00:14:13,720 Speaker 1: that that generate revenues for them. And so I think 265 00:14:13,840 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 1: that's the big too, that overshadow that there's still been 266 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: some subscriber losses in the quarter. And I think you'll 267 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:23,160 Speaker 1: continue to see that there's some growth in the stock 268 00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,960 Speaker 1: as people see them acting decisively. Okay, Mark, how about 269 00:14:26,960 --> 00:14:32,080 Speaker 1: this advertising opportunity for Netflix? Um a lot of analysts 270 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 1: on the Walsherter saying this could be a big deal 271 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:36,440 Speaker 1: in terms of the new source of revenue. How do 272 00:14:36,480 --> 00:14:40,560 Speaker 1: you think about that? Yeah, absolutely so. I think the 273 00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:44,720 Speaker 1: opportunity here is it can be as potentially as large 274 00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: as Netflix's current revenues. So they have as much as 275 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 1: of all viewing a TV has tone on Netflix. So 276 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 1: it's just a huge amount of user engagement people watching 277 00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 1: shows on Netflix that they can potentially monitor size. Now, 278 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: there are some challenges. All that content wasn't acquired by 279 00:15:04,880 --> 00:15:09,080 Speaker 1: Netflix with advertising in mind, so they have to potentially 280 00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:11,640 Speaker 1: get rights to do ads on that content. They have 281 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 1: to like find places to do it. But there's also 282 00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,840 Speaker 1: a lot of opportunity because they have no legacy advertising business, 283 00:15:18,880 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: they don't have to have thirty second TV ads. They 284 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:25,160 Speaker 1: can choose any format with any content over time, and 285 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 1: I think the revenue potential is at least as large 286 00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:32,440 Speaker 1: as Netflix is right now in terms of their their size. 287 00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,360 Speaker 1: What happened in this market yesterday I was at the 288 00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: crypto UM convention, and obviously crypto has been pooh pooed 289 00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 1: because of the incredible crash of bitcoin, but they all said, hey, 290 00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,200 Speaker 1: you know what, it's nothing compared to Netflix. You know, 291 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,480 Speaker 1: Netflix has done much worse than than bitcoin, which I 292 00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:54,000 Speaker 1: thought was a silly comparison, but um, it does show 293 00:15:54,040 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: you just how much I guess froth was in streaming. 294 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: Is it all across streaming or was it just net Flix? Well, 295 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:04,920 Speaker 1: I don't, I mean frost it's been I think it's 296 00:16:04,960 --> 00:16:06,760 Speaker 1: a pretty strong term. You have to look at it. 297 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 1: That Netflix lead of revolution. They completely changed the relationship 298 00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: between consumers and entertainment, you know, allowing on demand viewing, 299 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,800 Speaker 1: allowing you to get you know, an entire season the 300 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: shows all at once, and so that innovation I don't 301 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: think is I wouldn't perceive that as frosty. I would 302 00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:32,120 Speaker 1: consider it that the market was crashing and Netflix announcement 303 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 1: that we're having some subscriber losses, and you know, everyone reacted, 304 00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:42,200 Speaker 1: and I think obviously they have challenges. This is not 305 00:16:42,240 --> 00:16:46,240 Speaker 1: going to be easy to transition into having an ad 306 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:50,600 Speaker 1: supported price point for them, But I think the potential 307 00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: there is clear, and so I think Potentially people overreacted 308 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:58,560 Speaker 1: in terms of the sell off and Netflix stock, and 309 00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:02,240 Speaker 1: you know how the not the price declines in the 310 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:05,520 Speaker 1: last quarter and you and you're starting to see that turnaround. Mark, 311 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: what do you think about as we step back and 312 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 1: take a look at the streaming business? Everybody and the 313 00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:11,840 Speaker 1: brothers got a streaming service now, and they're all it 314 00:17:11,840 --> 00:17:14,840 Speaker 1: seems like they're all named plus. Um, how does this 315 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: shake out? I mean, are we going to have three players? 316 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:22,639 Speaker 1: Five players? Ten players? Are more? Well, there is a 317 00:17:22,640 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: lot of consolvation. I mean if you look at like Netflix, Disney, 318 00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:31,320 Speaker 1: Discovery Networks, NBC Universal, I think you're looking at like 319 00:17:31,480 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: five companies or essentially half of the entertainment markets for 320 00:17:36,840 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 1: for you know, and television viewing at home. So there's 321 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 1: already somewhat of a consolidation. I think you'll see that continue. Um. 322 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:50,719 Speaker 1: In the advertising space, actually, the brand advertising market is 323 00:17:50,800 --> 00:17:53,760 Speaker 1: not really growing that quickly, so you're looking at somewhat 324 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 1: of a market share war. In other words, you know, 325 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:59,119 Speaker 1: when Netflix comes to this market with TV ads and 326 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:02,560 Speaker 1: Disney comes in the market with Disney Plus, it's not 327 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,920 Speaker 1: like Procter and Gamble is going to allocate more budgets 328 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,679 Speaker 1: for TV ads. So it's a bit of a market 329 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:12,919 Speaker 1: share war actually. So the opportunity is to expand the 330 00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:18,600 Speaker 1: number of television advertisers to basically go beyond just these 331 00:18:18,680 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 1: biggest advertisers or else it is going to be a 332 00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 1: bit of a fight and um, so they have to 333 00:18:24,400 --> 00:18:26,399 Speaker 1: kind of do both things. They have to get into 334 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,760 Speaker 1: that market with the biggest advertisers, and they have to 335 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:33,360 Speaker 1: innovate with Microsoft in case case of Netflix and Disney, 336 00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 1: you know, with their Hulu division, um, in terms of 337 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:40,639 Speaker 1: to essentially expand the market, or else everyone's going to 338 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 1: be fighting over the you know, the same pool of dollars. 339 00:18:43,400 --> 00:18:46,280 Speaker 1: All right. So Mark Disney just came out a couple 340 00:18:46,320 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 1: of days ago with an announcement they secured nine billion 341 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,639 Speaker 1: dollars in advertising commitments during its Upfront ad sales event, 342 00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,680 Speaker 1: which happens kind of Mark May of every year. Uh, 343 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:57,520 Speaker 1: they're saying streaming played a big part of that. How 344 00:18:57,520 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 1: do you what are your takeaways there? Well? I think 345 00:19:01,119 --> 00:19:04,840 Speaker 1: the I mean, I know they love to announce up front, 346 00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:08,439 Speaker 1: but I don't see upfront as a concept lasting for 347 00:19:08,560 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: many more years. The concept what's that? But the the 348 00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:20,320 Speaker 1: thing is is that upfronts were created because you have, 349 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,639 Speaker 1: you know, a certain number of advertisers that are looking 350 00:19:23,680 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 1: for the same shows that the same group of consumers 351 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:30,360 Speaker 1: are watching, and so they could get people to bid 352 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,320 Speaker 1: against each other to get that. But when you look 353 00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,360 Speaker 1: at streaming, you know, you don't target basic, you don't 354 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,680 Speaker 1: care about the show. You care about who's the consumer 355 00:19:38,040 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 1: I'm trying to reach, and so you don't really need 356 00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: the upfronts in the same way. So I think, to me, 357 00:19:43,680 --> 00:19:46,960 Speaker 1: we've reached peak upfront like that, like the parties on 358 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 1: on going to be on the dep line, I don't 359 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:51,680 Speaker 1: think this is the any I think we've reached peak 360 00:19:51,760 --> 00:19:55,320 Speaker 1: up front. But the industry overall will grow because the 361 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:58,280 Speaker 1: upfront models of fifty year old business model that is 362 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,119 Speaker 1: due for a change, and I think of change is 363 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:03,640 Speaker 1: going to our car. Yeah, it's some good stories, Matt 364 00:20:03,720 --> 00:20:05,959 Speaker 1: from some of these upfront parties. All right, that's Mark Douglas, 365 00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:10,200 Speaker 1: President CEO of Mountain getting the latest on Netflix again. 366 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:12,840 Speaker 1: Kind of a mixed report last night, but the you know, 367 00:20:12,920 --> 00:20:20,920 Speaker 1: still talking about what is a growing streaming industry. Let's 368 00:20:20,960 --> 00:20:24,040 Speaker 1: check out with Mike mcblown, senior commodity strategies for Bloomberg Intelligence, 369 00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,760 Speaker 1: and he's one of Matt one of those of the 370 00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,760 Speaker 1: cool kids that during the pandemic relocated from the Northeast 371 00:20:29,760 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: down to Miami. And he's always, you know, boasting and 372 00:20:32,520 --> 00:20:35,159 Speaker 1: talking a big game when we're freezing up here in 373 00:20:35,280 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: January and February. Mike Howard things down in Miami in July. 374 00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: It's funny I came south. I can cool off in 375 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,080 Speaker 1: the summer. You guys are getting heat waves now, that's right. 376 00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:46,120 Speaker 1: Wait are you here? I just saw you here yesterday. 377 00:20:46,200 --> 00:20:47,920 Speaker 1: I was yesterday, but I had to come back to 378 00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,159 Speaker 1: the rough digs here in Miami. It's it's tough, but 379 00:20:50,240 --> 00:20:52,399 Speaker 1: you know, you got to do it. So do we 380 00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:56,000 Speaker 1: have what do we have going on here in Bitcoin? Well, 381 00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:59,240 Speaker 1: I think the big macro pictures. Bitcoin is one of 382 00:20:59,280 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: the biggest bull parks in history that just had its 383 00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:05,080 Speaker 1: biggest steepest discount to its Hunter week moving average ever. 384 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:07,560 Speaker 1: That was just a few days ago. And then you 385 00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: look over the other one of the biggest bear markets 386 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,199 Speaker 1: in history, crude oil had its steepest premium to its 387 00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:15,520 Speaker 1: Hunter weak movement average ever and that was just a 388 00:21:15,520 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 1: few months ago. And I think what we're doing is 389 00:21:17,000 --> 00:21:19,359 Speaker 1: getting that reversion process now. So since we had that 390 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,440 Speaker 1: seventy five bases point hike which was last month, we're 391 00:21:22,440 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 1: probably gonna get one next week. Bitcoin is up about 392 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,439 Speaker 1: ten and crude oil is down about ten percent. To me, 393 00:21:28,640 --> 00:21:32,560 Speaker 1: that's what's going to continue to happen partly because of 394 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:35,240 Speaker 1: this is the macro the micro and the key thing 395 00:21:35,240 --> 00:21:36,639 Speaker 1: I think to worry about it for a bitcoin is 396 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,639 Speaker 1: only if we get another big plunge in the stock market, 397 00:21:38,880 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 1: bitcoin might drop. But it seems to be in the 398 00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: process that coming out ahead. And I think that really 399 00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:44,879 Speaker 1: showed us last Thursday. Remember we had that bounce in 400 00:21:44,920 --> 00:21:47,520 Speaker 1: the stock market. Bitcoin did it first. It's like Mattisman 401 00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: point out point in a lot. It's just a great 402 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,879 Speaker 1: leading indicator at the moment. Still is so you tied 403 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: oil and gold together? Are they well in this year? 404 00:21:57,640 --> 00:21:59,120 Speaker 1: And that's one thing I've enjoyed it. At a few 405 00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: conference people asked me why are you writing so much 406 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,920 Speaker 1: about Krudel. It's one of the most significant as people 407 00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:06,760 Speaker 1: would say standard deviation moves versus the hunter week movement 408 00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:09,800 Speaker 1: average ever in crudef futures and bitcoin, when I'm just 409 00:22:09,840 --> 00:22:13,359 Speaker 1: seen as a normal discount in a bowl market, but 410 00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 1: I have to row open Krudel. So let's remember the 411 00:22:15,240 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 1: beginning of the year, the FED was gonna hike twenty 412 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,199 Speaker 1: five basis points at every meeting, and then we had 413 00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: this massive spike in commandities led by Crudeil. Now they're 414 00:22:22,160 --> 00:22:25,040 Speaker 1: hiking seventy five basis points at two meetings in a row. 415 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:27,600 Speaker 1: I mean they are taking up the sledge hammer on markets. 416 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:30,920 Speaker 1: They are it's a sledgehammer, and it's okay the stock 417 00:22:30,960 --> 00:22:32,840 Speaker 1: market sponsor, that's great, but I think they're going to 418 00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,640 Speaker 1: just keep tightens. The stock market gives up, and Bitcoin 419 00:22:35,800 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 1: I think has had you know, it's pretty good bear market, 420 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 1: but it's had the normal nuances you'd see in a 421 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:43,320 Speaker 1: in a you know, Nath and Technology were seeing that 422 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:46,000 Speaker 1: the leaves of some of the bankruptcies and stuff. But 423 00:22:46,160 --> 00:22:48,200 Speaker 1: it's probably more likely just to come out ahead. It's 424 00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:52,640 Speaker 1: this question of timing and Valtilly, what was your takeaway yesterday? 425 00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:56,600 Speaker 1: I saw you at the Bloomberg Crypto conference in I 426 00:22:56,640 --> 00:23:00,680 Speaker 1: guess what do you call? It's not Midtown anymore. It's 427 00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 1: like the Grammercy Park area district in any case, Um, 428 00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: what was your takeaway there? We saw some big names 429 00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:10,320 Speaker 1: Um talking Jack Millers, I spoke with Sam Bankman, Freed 430 00:23:10,359 --> 00:23:13,639 Speaker 1: spoke with Matt Levine, UM, Michael nova Grad spoke with 431 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:17,000 Speaker 1: Shonali Basket. What was your takeaway? Very similar Matt to 432 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,200 Speaker 1: what I took away from the SALT conference in Bahamas 433 00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,400 Speaker 1: as lost the people in the space realized that this 434 00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 1: has got a little bit a bit overdone, in a 435 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:26,399 Speaker 1: little bit bubblicious, and we're personal bursting the bubble and 436 00:23:26,480 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: out of that, so many people are so positive about 437 00:23:29,280 --> 00:23:31,639 Speaker 1: the new technology, what it's gonna do, where it's gonna go. 438 00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:36,040 Speaker 1: And that was my takeaway from UM from Sam Bankman, Freed, 439 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,240 Speaker 1: Nova Grant said, I really like telling you, yes I 440 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,320 Speaker 1: was wrong, but moving on, this is a pretty significant technology. 441 00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,439 Speaker 1: And also on my panel, you know where are we 442 00:23:43,560 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: a year from now when we get past this period 443 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:47,760 Speaker 1: of we all remember from the dot com bubble. A 444 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:49,960 Speaker 1: year from now, we've built a better system and it's 445 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 1: about appreciation. Wow, So you were talking to us, but 446 00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:57,160 Speaker 1: you're still a bull You're still But I wonder when 447 00:23:57,160 --> 00:24:02,560 Speaker 1: you get when you step out of crypto bubbles, isn't 448 00:24:02,560 --> 00:24:05,520 Speaker 1: it hard to keep being bullish after a drop from 449 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:10,000 Speaker 1: sixty whatever to well let's put it in context. We've 450 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,040 Speaker 1: dropped about twenty five trillion dollars from global equity is 451 00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 1: based on Bloomberg metrics, and we lost about a billion 452 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,720 Speaker 1: a trillion in cryptos. I mean now, right now, cryptos 453 00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,000 Speaker 1: are a rounding error compared to what's happened in the macro. 454 00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,159 Speaker 1: We've had the biggest draw down in the in the 455 00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:25,920 Speaker 1: in the bond commodity, in the bond future, which is 456 00:24:25,920 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 1: why I started in trading pits in the eighties. Ever, 457 00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:31,200 Speaker 1: and well it's since nineteen seventy seven, so the markets. 458 00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:33,119 Speaker 1: Bitcoin is part of the and cryptos are part of 459 00:24:33,160 --> 00:24:35,400 Speaker 1: that macro. But the thing is, is the fastest horse 460 00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:37,080 Speaker 1: in the race where is it five or ten years 461 00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:39,119 Speaker 1: from now? So here's my bottom line in bitcoin. I 462 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: fully expect this twenty thousand level is going to be 463 00:24:41,240 --> 00:24:43,840 Speaker 1: like five thousand was the last beer market, and it's 464 00:24:43,880 --> 00:24:45,879 Speaker 1: just a matter of time it gets two hundred thousand. 465 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,879 Speaker 1: Something has to change in the demand and adoption because 466 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,719 Speaker 1: the supplies declining, that has the prices have to go up, 467 00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 1: and I don't think that's going to change. I think 468 00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:55,199 Speaker 1: we're just going to see more dip by ever, like 469 00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,440 Speaker 1: do you ever go out to dinner with people who 470 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 1: aren't involved in crypto, or like hang out with someone 471 00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:04,680 Speaker 1: who's been burned and doesn't want to go back into 472 00:25:04,760 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 1: Do you have a heart doctor? Maybe he has lost 473 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:10,760 Speaker 1: money on like Mike Novgress mentioned, well, a lot of 474 00:25:10,760 --> 00:25:13,679 Speaker 1: people got over their skis the way I look at 475 00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:15,960 Speaker 1: the bottom line for cryptos. If you're running and say 476 00:25:15,960 --> 00:25:18,520 Speaker 1: a hundred newness of any acid, you don't have one 477 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:20,400 Speaker 1: or two of those units in crypto, you're at greater 478 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,880 Speaker 1: risk than not doing it. And to me, that narrative 479 00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:25,119 Speaker 1: was kind of a smaller part of the bell curve 480 00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:27,280 Speaker 1: maybe five years ago. Every day that goes by, it's 481 00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:30,120 Speaker 1: an increasing nuance in the space. Realize, okay, I gotta 482 00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,280 Speaker 1: get into space. I'm willing to buy dips in crypto. 483 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: It's got the highest spade. And if if the market 484 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:36,520 Speaker 1: goes up bitcoinsrob we're gonna go up the most cryptos. 485 00:25:36,560 --> 00:25:39,639 Speaker 1: Where will and where is it five ten years from now? 486 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 1: Do we really think the will going digital is not 487 00:25:41,720 --> 00:25:44,240 Speaker 1: going to adapt this global digital collateral? And then you 488 00:25:44,320 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 1: look at the theory, it's really the bottom line for 489 00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,159 Speaker 1: n f T S tokenization, which is the key thing 490 00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,520 Speaker 1: on of my panel there's nothing to stop the tokenization 491 00:25:51,560 --> 00:25:53,960 Speaker 1: of assets. Regulation will push back, but it's a matter 492 00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:55,960 Speaker 1: of time. And the most widely trade to cryptos on 493 00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,600 Speaker 1: the planet. The number one is the dollar. Key think 494 00:25:58,640 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 1: I remember it's a token dis version over the dollar. 495 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: All right, folks, everybody's out there. It's got a Bloomber 496 00:26:04,119 --> 00:26:06,800 Speaker 1: turmal in front of them. B I Space, c O, 497 00:26:07,320 --> 00:26:12,720 Speaker 1: M D GO. That's the commodities dashboard run by Mike mcglowa, 498 00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:16,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. It's got it all the soft commodities, the 499 00:26:16,880 --> 00:26:20,600 Speaker 1: hard commodities, all this crypto stuff is the place to go. Well, 500 00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: he'll know if we had a peak. Do we have 501 00:26:22,080 --> 00:26:24,280 Speaker 1: a peak in inflation at least on the material side, 502 00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: Oh sure, it's very close. In terms of commodities. Commodities 503 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,680 Speaker 1: are plunge. You look at copper down in the year. 504 00:26:30,119 --> 00:26:32,800 Speaker 1: It's the most extreme versus a hundred week moving on 505 00:26:32,840 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 1: average since the christ since Lehman collapsed. So if copper 506 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,399 Speaker 1: is pointing out that we're heading for a major deflationary perry, 507 00:26:39,800 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 1: services is probably the problem. Right at least that's what 508 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 1: I heard Tom Keen saying this morning that services could 509 00:26:44,640 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 1: continue to rise in price. So all right, I could 510 00:26:47,680 --> 00:26:50,720 Speaker 1: lose my bet with Critty. Alright, Mike mcglogan down in Miami, 511 00:26:50,920 --> 00:26:54,000 Speaker 1: sweating it out with the masses, but probably no worse 512 00:26:54,080 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 1: than here in New York City. I mean, I mean, 513 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: try go down and so it was quite hot yesterday. Alright. 514 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,719 Speaker 1: Mike mcglowan, Senior Commodity Strategies bloom Intelligence. Again. That uh 515 00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 1: ticker B I, SPACE, c O, M D GO is 516 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:08,679 Speaker 1: all of the commodity research coming out of Bloomberg Research, 517 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,720 Speaker 1: and Mike has covered everything over his several decade career. 518 00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,879 Speaker 1: The hard commodity is the soft commodities energy. Uh. And 519 00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:18,880 Speaker 1: now he's really established himself, as you know, within Bloomberg 520 00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:21,200 Speaker 1: Intelligence and within I think the industry itself, one of 521 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:25,840 Speaker 1: the leading research voices for all things scriptose. We appreciate 522 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:30,760 Speaker 1: getting some time from him. Thanks for listening to the 523 00:27:30,800 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews 524 00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:39,040 Speaker 1: with Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm 525 00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:43,520 Speaker 1: Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller. Put on 526 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:46,680 Speaker 1: fall Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 527 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,240 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.