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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PJA Podcast. I'm Pat fitz

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Speaker 1: Morris along with Bo McBrayer. Just two more events remaining

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Speaker 1: in the PGA Tour season, and today we will preview

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Speaker 1: the penultimate event, the BMW Championship. But first, a quick

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Speaker 1: recap of the very first tournament of the three week

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Speaker 1: FedEx Cup playoffs, the FedEx Saint Jude Classic excuse me,

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Speaker 1: FedEx Saint Jude Championship. Justin Rose outlasted JJ Spawn in

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Speaker 1: a playoff to win the first playoff event. It was

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Speaker 1: pretty entertaining playoff. Both players part of the first playoff

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Speaker 1: Hole Spawn rolled in a thirty foot birdie put on

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Speaker 1: the second playoff Hall that forced Rose to roll in

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Speaker 1: a very nervy seven footer for his birdie. Then on

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Speaker 1: the third playoff hal Rose sent sunk in eleven and

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Speaker 1: a half footer for birdie and JJ Spawn missed a

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Speaker 1: seven footer for his berdie. So Englishman Justin Rose gets

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Speaker 1: a big win. Unfortunately, the FedEx Saint Jude delivered another

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Speaker 1: tale of woe for just Roses countryman Englishman Tommy Fleetwood.

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Speaker 1: Poor Tommy's still looking for his first PGA Tour win.

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Speaker 1: He raced out to the lead with the sixty three

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Speaker 1: and a sixty four over his first two rounds. Slipped

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Speaker 1: a bit with a sixty nine on Saturday, but still

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Speaker 1: took a slim lead into the final round and was

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Speaker 1: in it until the end on Sunday, but Fleetwood fell

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Speaker 1: out of a tie for the lead with a bogie

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Speaker 1: on the seventeenth hit a poor approach shot on that hole,

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Speaker 1: still had a chance to make par, but then badly

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Speaker 1: pushed a seven foot par pot. Then he put a

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Speaker 1: t shot into a bunker on eighteen to effectively kill

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Speaker 1: his chances to join the playoff. Just seems like the

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Speaker 1: victory drought is in Fleetwood's head at this point. He

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Speaker 1: finished tied for third along with Scottie Scheffler. Boe were

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Speaker 1: your takeaways from the FedEx Saint Jude.

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Speaker 2: It was a tale of attrition, really it was. It

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Speaker 2: was tough. You could tell they were dealing with the

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Speaker 2: heat and humidity in there and Memphis, and Tommy was

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Speaker 2: up and down. He was awesome the first two days.

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Speaker 2: We got off to this great start and everybody's saying, oh,

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Speaker 2: is this the week that we go? Cam Young breaks

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Speaker 2: his own curse, And then the very next week Tommy

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Speaker 2: gets off the schneid. A lot of people were floating

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Speaker 2: that idea. I was interested to see how his putting

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Speaker 2: would turn out. It wasn't his putting that sunk him

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Speaker 2: this time it usually is. This time, it was just

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Speaker 2: timely misses, short sighting himself missing bad fair ways where

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Speaker 2: it's a birdie hole, but instead he's having to scramble

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Speaker 2: to make par on birdie holes. And that happened over

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Speaker 2: the whole weekend where he was barely around par and

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Speaker 2: everybody else seemed to kind of keep up that high sixties,

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Speaker 2: mid to high sixties scoring average that the course was

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Speaker 2: giving them the whole week. Tommy just didn't have enough

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Speaker 2: at the end. Rose and JJ Spahn got hot in

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Speaker 2: the final two rounds, especially Rose. Rose is so impressive

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Speaker 2: forty five years young. I don't think that matters at all.

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Speaker 2: A lot of people were saying, oh, he's forty five,

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Speaker 2: just turned forty five a week ago. Forty five forty five.

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Speaker 2: I was like, that's so what It's like. This is

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Speaker 2: a a professional athlete at the top of his game.

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Speaker 2: He's been doing this for twenty years. He's never been

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Speaker 2: the kind of guy that's had a thrashing swing that's

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Speaker 2: been hard on his body. Guy's just a golfer, and

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Speaker 2: I know golfers that are over seventy eighty years old

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Speaker 2: that still have the same game, if not better game,

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Speaker 2: than they did when they were forty five. So I'm

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Speaker 2: not on the Agis train where I'm surprised that Justin

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Speaker 2: Rose won a big golf tournament at age forty five.

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Speaker 2: It's just not that big of a deal made. They've

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Speaker 2: made way too much of a deal out of it.

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Speaker 2: I think it's most impressive that Justin Rose was clutch,

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Speaker 2: and Justin Rose has been clutched this season now a

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Speaker 2: couple wins and really pushing himself into that Tour Championship

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Speaker 2: conversation in a couple of weeks or next week. The

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Speaker 2: tournament was just I think once Tommy got off to

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Speaker 2: a lead, I was just thinking, how is he going

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Speaker 2: to lose it? Not if he's going to lose it,

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Speaker 2: I already knew he wasn't going to finish it off.

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Speaker 2: He never does. I kind of thought that Scotty would

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Speaker 2: come in with more steam, but he didn't. He couldn't

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Speaker 2: find the shots either. On Sunday to make a really

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Speaker 2: big push, he was just kind of floating there, hovering

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Speaker 2: around his top five when his game isn't quite as

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Speaker 2: good as it could be. Scotty doesn't win, but he's

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Speaker 2: always right there. What is it like? He's made the

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Speaker 2: top eight and what twelve tournaments in a row. That's

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Speaker 2: pretty good. Overall, the tournament was very entertaining. JJ Spahn

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Speaker 2: playing out of his mind the season. What a story

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Speaker 2: he is. Kurt Kidiyamo with the top ten vaults himself

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Speaker 2: into the top thirty conversation going into the week. So

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Speaker 2: it's it was a very entertaining tournament kind of unfolded

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Speaker 2: how I thought it would. Some of my guys that

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Speaker 2: I bet on faded after the first two days, but

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Speaker 2: it was fun. I like, I like Justin Rose, so

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Speaker 2: I was I was happy to see him win.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, if only my old man game was as sharp

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Speaker 1: as Justin Rose's.

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Speaker 2: He's just been good a long time.

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Speaker 1: He has been. We'll get to the betting preview for

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Speaker 1: the BMW Championship in just a moment, but.

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Speaker 2: First download the free Betting pros app for iOS and Android.

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Speaker 2: trial on the upgrade screen.

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Speaker 1: FedEx Cup playoffs began with seventy players nouch down to

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Speaker 1: the top fifty playing in the BMW Championship. The top

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Speaker 1: thirty will then advance to the Season Inning Tour Championship

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Speaker 1: next week. The BMW Championship will not have a cut,

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Speaker 1: All fifty players will play all four rounds, while it's

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Speaker 1: actually forty nine players now because Sepstraca has withdrawn. The

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Speaker 1: BMW is the one playoff event with a course rotation,

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Speaker 1: and this year's BMW will be played at Caves Valley

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Speaker 1: Club in Owings Mills, Maryland. Caves Valley is a Tom

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Speaker 1: Fazzio design that opened in nineteen ninety one. It's a

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Speaker 1: par seventy that will play two seven, six hundred and

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Speaker 1: one yards. It's a long course and if you're wondering

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Speaker 1: why it's so long. The last time that BMW was

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Speaker 1: held at Caves Creek excuse me, Caves Valley was twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty one. Patrick Cantlay and Bryson D. Chambeau absolutely tore

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Speaker 1: the place to ribbons, both of them finishing twenty seven

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Speaker 1: under par. Can't Lay won a memorable six hole playoff.

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Speaker 1: Seven players finished twenty under par better that week. Twenty

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Speaker 1: one players finished fifteen under par better. There were seventy

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Speaker 1: players in the field that week, all of them were

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Speaker 1: under parwer for the tournaments in fairness, rain had softened

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Speaker 1: the course in twenty twenty one. They were playing lyft

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Speaker 1: clean in place because the fairways were so soggy. But

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Speaker 1: there is clearly a PGA Tour mandate for this course

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Speaker 1: to be less of a Turkey shoot this time around.

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Speaker 1: In twenty twenty one, Caves Valley was a par seventy

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Speaker 1: two that played to a round seventy five hundred yards.

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Speaker 1: Now it's a par seventy measuring around six seventy six

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Speaker 1: hundred yards. All the two of the par fours are

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Speaker 1: at least four hundred and sixty seven yards, one is

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Speaker 1: five hundred and twenty five and others five hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty one. The two par fives are both nearly six

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Speaker 1: hundred yards long. All of the par threes are at

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Speaker 1: least one hundred and ninety seven yards. Two par threes

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Speaker 1: on the back bow are both two hundred and forty

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Speaker 1: five yards. Now the fairways have been narrowed a bit

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Speaker 1: and the rough has been lengthened, although missing the fairway

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Speaker 1: on this course is still not exactly a death sentence,

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Speaker 1: but big hitters should have an edge here. The greens

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Speaker 1: are bent grass and they're expected to roll at about

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Speaker 1: a twelve point five on the stint meter. Keegan Bradley

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Speaker 1: will be trying to defend his BMW championship. He won

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Speaker 1: a Castle Rock in Colorado last year. The weather forecast

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Speaker 1: this week calls for more heat daily highs in the

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Speaker 1: low to mid nineties throughout the tournament. There might be

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Speaker 1: some rain the day before the tournament starts, but there's

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Speaker 1: not supposed to be any rain during the event and

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Speaker 1: the wind should be light all four days. Paul, what

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Speaker 1: is your take on the leaner and meaner version of

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Speaker 1: Caves Valley.

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Speaker 2: It's still extremely easy, extremely easy. This is going to

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Speaker 2: be another Turkey shoot where they're not going to get

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Speaker 2: the lift clean in place. They're playing the ball down

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Speaker 2: most likely with sunshine and the forecast. This course is

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Speaker 2: extremely easy for these guys. Seventy six hundred yards. It's

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Speaker 2: the longest golf course on the tour this year. Doesn't

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Speaker 2: matter these guys, it does not matter. These guys are

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Speaker 2: going to tear this place up. There's gonna be birdie

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Speaker 2: chances up out the yin Yang. You're gonna look for

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Speaker 2: guys that have driving distance advantage. Your longest hitters on

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Speaker 2: tour get a big boost here because they're gonna be

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Speaker 2: hitting shorter clubs than the rest of the field. There's

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Speaker 2: only forty nine guys in the field, so we already

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Speaker 2: know who the usual suspects are. We get into that

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Speaker 2: when we talk about the odds. But this golf course

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Speaker 2: is still extremely easy. The rough is not very penal.

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Speaker 2: Even though the fairways are narrower, they're gonna get a

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Speaker 2: lot of rollout. There's a lot of elevation change on

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Speaker 2: this golf course, which means some of those very long

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Speaker 2: par fours are so far downhill that you're still hitting

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Speaker 2: a wedgendo them. The par five's there's only two of

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Speaker 2: them now, they're still very gettable, and the par fours

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Speaker 2: that they converted didn't make them any more of an

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Speaker 2: easy or a more difficult hole. It just took a

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Speaker 2: stroke off par I still think we're going to see

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Speaker 2: scores somewhere in that twenty to twenty five under range

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Speaker 2: for the win. Twenty seven probably not, but twenty to

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Speaker 2: twenty five is very very likely here with no cut,

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Speaker 2: I don't think there's they could do anything to this

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Speaker 2: course to make it field proof.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it does seem like it's I know, the fairways

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Speaker 1: are kind of wide, the greens are pretty big, some

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Speaker 1: are a little narrow, but for the most part it's

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Speaker 1: still a big target to hit for.

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Speaker 2: Them and the receptive This is gonna be target practice.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely. We will get to the odds in just

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Speaker 1: Onto the odds for the BMW Championship. All odds are

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Speaker 1: courtesy of DraftKings. As a Monday afternoon, some of these

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Speaker 1: odds may have changed by the time you consume the show.

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Speaker 1: Scottie Scheffler opens as the favorite at plus two thirty.

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Speaker 1: Rory McElroy, who skipped the first round of the FedEx

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Speaker 1: Cup playoffs, is plus seven hundred Xanders Schoffley and Timey

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Speaker 1: Feleetwood are plus two thousand. Patrick Cantlay and Justin Thomas

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Speaker 1: are plus twenty five plus twenty two hundred, Ludwig Oberg

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Speaker 1: is plus twenty five hundred, JJ Spond, Colin Morikawa, Cameron Young,

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Speaker 1: Sam Burns and Russell Henley are all plus three thousand.

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Speaker 1: Matt Fitzpatrick, Keegan Bradley, Ben Griffin and Chris Godderup are

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Speaker 1: plus thirty five hundred, and Justin Rose is plus four thousand.

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Speaker 1: What are we doing with Scotty Scheffler bow and if

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Speaker 1: you're not betting him, who is headlining your betting card

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Speaker 1: at the BMW.

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Speaker 2: I'm not betting him? Plus two thirty is insane. This

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Speaker 2: is golf course is very easy, and Scotty has traditionally

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Speaker 2: done pretty well at very easy scoring events, but not

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Speaker 2: better than Rory McElroy. Rory McElroy, especially with the course

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Speaker 2: that rewards driving distance, this is a bomber's paradise. Rory

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Speaker 2: McElroy plus seven hundred extreme value compared to Scotty Scheffler.

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Speaker 2: I'm not saying don't bet Scotty Scheffler. I'm just saying

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Speaker 2: I'm not betting Scotty Schffler because I'm all in on

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Speaker 2: Rory McElroy plus seven hundred and seven to one odds

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Speaker 2: for a guy who's picture perfect, made for this golf course,

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Speaker 2: took the week off, didn't have to suffer heat exhaustion

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Speaker 2: in Memphis last week. Rory McElroy is a very very

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Speaker 2: easy pick for me at the top of this board.

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Speaker 2: I also like Ludwig Oberg. Ludwig Oberg in previous golf courses,

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Speaker 2: you're like, oh, he needs to be able to chip

240
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Speaker 2: and putt and get out of jams. There's none of

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Speaker 2: that here. This golf course is point and shoot, and

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Speaker 2: Ludvig Olberg is as good of a ball striker as

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Speaker 2: you're gonna find. He's also a pretty long hitter, not

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Speaker 2: the longest, but very long by his own credit. And

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Speaker 2: when it comes to Berdiefest, there's nobody I like more

246
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Speaker 2: than Ludwig Oberg. If you're going inside of the top

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Speaker 2: the forty to one guys, I'm also going to be

248
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Speaker 2: on Victor Hovland at thirty five to one. He's another

249
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Speaker 2: ball striker extraordinaire who does typically do well when you

250
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Speaker 2: need to scramble and get out of jams. But when

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Speaker 2: he just point and shoot, it's again a guy that

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Speaker 2: I figure his ball striking is going to be very

253
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Speaker 2: well tailored to this golf course, and he can go

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Speaker 2: low with the best of them.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Oberg is starting to show some life. He'd been

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Speaker 1: not really himself for most of the spring and summer,

257
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Speaker 1: but he was eighth that the Scottish Open twenty thirty

258
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Speaker 1: at the Open Championship ninth last week at the FedEx

259
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Speaker 1: Saint Jude. You mentioned Scotty versus Rory bo back at

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Speaker 1: Caves Valley in twenty twenty one. I believe Scotty finished

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Speaker 1: twenty second and Rory McElroy finished fourth, and Rory has

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Speaker 1: also finished top seven in each of his last three events.

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Speaker 1: He ranks third and strokes gained off the tee fourth

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Speaker 1: in strokes gained. Putting hasn't been great this year on

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Speaker 1: the longer approaches though, bow does that bother you at all?

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Speaker 1: He's one hundred and fifty seventh and approach shouts from

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Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty to one hundred and seventy five

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Speaker 1: yards ninety fifth and approaches from one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 1: five to two hundred yards. Seems like that might kind

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Speaker 1: of be the range for a lot of these approach

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Speaker 1: shots at Caves Valley.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm actually looking at it a little differently when

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Speaker 2: you filter. For courses that are at this length, he

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Speaker 2: does a lot better from one seventy five to two hundred.

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Speaker 2: On these types of courses, he's eleventh in this field,

276
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Speaker 2: and on the longer approach is two hundred plus, he's

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Speaker 2: number two in this field, right behind some guy named

278
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Speaker 2: Scotti Scheffler. So when it comes to longer courses, if

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Speaker 2: he is forced into those buckets, then he's a lot

280
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Speaker 2: better than he is if he's forced into those buckets

281
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Speaker 2: on a shorter, more positional golf course that might might

282
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Speaker 2: have forced layups putting him in those buckets. I think

283
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Speaker 2: he's all systems go here, especially since he's going to

284
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Speaker 2: be looking at a lot shorter clubs in that range

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Speaker 2: than the rest of the field.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about Xander for a minute. He was twenty

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Speaker 1: second last week at the FedEx Saint Jude. Back at

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Speaker 1: Caves Valley in twenty twenty one, he was forty ninth,

289
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Speaker 1: and he's outside the top one hundred in strokes gained

290
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Speaker 1: off the tee and strokes gained. Any reason to be

291
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Speaker 1: interested in Xander this week?

292
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Speaker 2: Xander in general is a good pick at any point

293
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Speaker 2: in time. But what's worrying me about this tournament particular

294
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Speaker 2: is his ability to make birdies or better. He's gonna

295
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Speaker 2: have to make a lot of birdies, and right now

296
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Speaker 2: I kind of put Xander in that grinder only at

297
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Speaker 2: his current form is where if the conditions get tough,

298
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Speaker 2: then I like Xander a lot more. But when you

299
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Speaker 2: need to go twenty or better under par than Xander

300
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Speaker 2: in this field is twenty second and birdies are better,

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Speaker 2: percentage not gonna cut it for his odds.

302
00:15:33,960 --> 00:15:36,440
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Brits. Like I just

303
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Speaker 1: I can't back Tommy Fleetwood at relatively short odds. I mean,

304
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Speaker 1: he looks so nervous on Sunday and the seventeenth Hall

305
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Speaker 1: when the tournament was on the line ball. I think

306
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Speaker 1: that for him to finally break this non winning streak,

307
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Speaker 1: he's gonna need to rain and win in a runaway,

308
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Speaker 1: and I don't think there's much chance he's running away

309
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Speaker 1: from a field. This good set up for him.

310
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Speaker 2: Last week he was up.

311
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Speaker 1: He really did.

312
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Speaker 2: Yeah.

313
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Speaker 1: I mean if you would have bet him for a

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Speaker 1: top five or a top ten, fine, but betting him

315
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Speaker 1: out right seems like lighting your money on fire.

316
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Speaker 2: I haven't bet him out right since twenty twenty three,

317
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Speaker 2: so I wouldn't know.

318
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Speaker 1: Justin Rose though, at forty to one, I mean he's

319
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Speaker 1: been red hot with the win this past week, a

320
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Speaker 1: sixth that's the Scottish Open, a sixteenth at the Open Championship,

321
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Speaker 1: didn't play Caves Valley in twenty twenty one, and Rose

322
00:16:24,920 --> 00:16:27,480
Speaker 1: doesn't have great driving stats this year. I guess that

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Speaker 1: would be the concern. But his driving wasn't problematic this

324
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Speaker 1: past week. I mean he did almost put one of

325
00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 1: his drives on the playoff holes into a pond, got

326
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Speaker 1: a lucky break, or maybe that was in the run

327
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Speaker 1: up to the playoff hall, maybe it was just before,

328
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Speaker 1: but I don't know.

329
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Speaker 2: Hey, is that right?

330
00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:45,480
Speaker 1: Are we getting value out of Justin Rose at forty

331
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Speaker 1: to one, I.

332
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Speaker 2: Mean, it's right where I would put him. I'm not

333
00:16:49,320 --> 00:16:52,960
Speaker 2: interested this week because he's not exactly your runaway Birdie

334
00:16:53,000 --> 00:16:57,520
Speaker 2: type of guy. Neither is Fleetwood. So Fleetwood thirty ninth

335
00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,240
Speaker 2: and Birdie or better Rose fourteenth. But Rose is dead

336
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:02,920
Speaker 2: last in all of your off the tee metrics as

337
00:17:02,920 --> 00:17:06,960
Speaker 2: well as off on just general approach. He's thirty fifth

338
00:17:07,240 --> 00:17:10,000
Speaker 2: and also twenty second mill of the pack and driving distance,

339
00:17:10,080 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 2: So I'm lukewarm. On both of them. I obviously would

340
00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:17,080
Speaker 2: never bet Tommy Fleetwood to win a tournament, but Rose

341
00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:19,520
Speaker 2: has the upside to win the tournament. But I just

342
00:17:19,560 --> 00:17:23,280
Speaker 2: don't see him quite having enough firepower here with this

343
00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,680
Speaker 2: field being so strong, full of guys that are much

344
00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:28,000
Speaker 2: better fits for this golf course.

345
00:17:28,960 --> 00:17:32,800
Speaker 1: Fair enough, I've been off Patrick Cantlay most of the season,

346
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,120
Speaker 1: but he is interesting this week considering that he won

347
00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 1: here in twenty twenty one and is coming off a

348
00:17:38,240 --> 00:17:41,320
Speaker 1: ninth at the FedEx Saint Jude. He drives the ball

349
00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:44,600
Speaker 1: well and he's been good on his longer approaches this year.

350
00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,479
Speaker 1: Plus he's probably one good finish away from locking up

351
00:17:47,480 --> 00:17:50,480
Speaker 1: a Ryder Cup invitation. What do you think about Cantlay?

352
00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:53,240
Speaker 2: I mean, it's it's kind of the sucker bed of

353
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 2: the week. I really do think that people are looking

354
00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,359
Speaker 2: at his history more than his present, and if you

355
00:17:59,359 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 2: look at his pres he's dead last in this field

356
00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:05,240
Speaker 2: at putting on bent grass, not great, He's thirty first

357
00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,240
Speaker 2: and birdier better percentage. Yes, he did really well here,

358
00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:11,439
Speaker 2: basically lit this place up in twenty twenty one at

359
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 2: twenty seven under matched bryceon de Shamba shot for shot

360
00:18:15,160 --> 00:18:17,800
Speaker 2: all week and took six playoff holes to decide that

361
00:18:18,800 --> 00:18:21,880
Speaker 2: he's a vastly different golfer this year in twenty twenty

362
00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:23,879
Speaker 2: five than he was in twenty twenty one, where he

363
00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,000
Speaker 2: was very much at the peak of his powers at

364
00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:33,040
Speaker 2: that time. This is for me the ultimate overinflated odds

365
00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,080
Speaker 2: of the week because of what he's done in the

366
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:38,400
Speaker 2: past versus what he's done for us lately. Ninth last

367
00:18:38,400 --> 00:18:41,200
Speaker 2: week has no bearing on this week because we're talking

368
00:18:41,240 --> 00:18:46,199
Speaker 2: about two vastly different golf courses, good vibes aside. I

369
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 2: don't see you can't lay as a value at all

370
00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:48,680
Speaker 2: this week.

371
00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:55,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, what about Cameron Young? Very hot? He won the

372
00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:58,080
Speaker 1: Wyndham Championship two weeks ago, just finished fifth at the

373
00:18:58,119 --> 00:19:01,359
Speaker 1: FedEx Saint Jude. Ranks outside the top one hundred strokes

374
00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,399
Speaker 1: gained an approach, but he does rank better on the

375
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:05,600
Speaker 1: longer approaches than from wedge distance.

376
00:19:06,320 --> 00:19:08,920
Speaker 2: This is a guy who if you can see him

377
00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:11,560
Speaker 2: slip a little bit farther than where he is currently,

378
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:16,080
Speaker 2: I'm all over it because talk about upside. He's got

379
00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 2: that big albatross off his back, finally won a golf

380
00:19:18,880 --> 00:19:22,520
Speaker 2: tournament on the PGA Tour. He's got all the firepower,

381
00:19:22,560 --> 00:19:26,160
Speaker 2: he's got the driving distance and spades. We worry about

382
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,920
Speaker 2: his approach game, but it's also been a lot better

383
00:19:28,920 --> 00:19:31,879
Speaker 2: in the last few starts. He's a good birdie maker,

384
00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:35,159
Speaker 2: He's been a vastly improved putter, and betgrass is his

385
00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:37,439
Speaker 2: best surface. So where I don't like him, where he

386
00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,000
Speaker 2: is right the second at thirty five to one, if

387
00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 2: he slips to forty or forty five, you're gonna bet

388
00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:42,959
Speaker 2: your breeches.

389
00:19:43,040 --> 00:19:43,240
Speaker 3: I'm on.

390
00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 2: I'm gonna be on Camon Young this week because he's

391
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:48,880
Speaker 2: got that firepower and the good vibes going from that win.

392
00:19:50,119 --> 00:19:52,200
Speaker 2: It's gonna be fun to watch see what he can

393
00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,280
Speaker 2: do following up that performance a couple of weeks ago.

394
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,280
Speaker 1: Yeah. Now, Sam Burns finished eighth here in twenty twenty one,

395
00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:02,560
Speaker 1: but you know, he's cooled off considerably after a pretty

396
00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: hot late spring early summer. Has not had a top

397
00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 1: twenty five finish since June, and Chris got her Up

398
00:20:09,840 --> 00:20:12,399
Speaker 1: finished fifty fourth last week, but he had been piping

399
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,840
Speaker 1: hot before the playoffs began. Crushes the ball off the tee,

400
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,199
Speaker 1: and while got her Up's approach stats haven't been that

401
00:20:18,240 --> 00:20:20,159
Speaker 1: good overall, they're pretty good in that one hundred and

402
00:20:20,200 --> 00:20:23,440
Speaker 1: fifty yard to two hundred yard range. All right, let's

403
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:27,479
Speaker 1: look at more of the odds. Hadeki Matsuyama, Corey Conners

404
00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:31,280
Speaker 1: and Sung jm R Plus five thousand. Robert McIntyre, Ricky Fowler,

405
00:20:31,400 --> 00:20:35,199
Speaker 1: Kurt kitti Yama, Harris English, Akshebatia and Shane Lowry are

406
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,680
Speaker 1: all plus fifty five hundred. Maverick McNeely and Harry Hall

407
00:20:38,720 --> 00:20:42,760
Speaker 1: are plus six thousand. Taylor Pendrith has plus six sixty

408
00:20:42,760 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 1: five hundred, Jason Day Andrew Nova can see Kim Our

409
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:49,400
Speaker 1: plus eight thousand, and Brian Harmon his plus nine thousand.

410
00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 1: Do any of these mid range options stand out?

411
00:20:52,359 --> 00:20:57,000
Speaker 2: Bow long golf course, long approach distances and a renewed

412
00:20:57,040 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 2: sense of making Birdie's shout out. NorCal Kittiyama, as he's

413
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 2: as hot as anybody in the world right now. Went

414
00:21:04,240 --> 00:21:07,480
Speaker 2: from outside the top one hundred to inside the top

415
00:21:07,520 --> 00:21:10,840
Speaker 2: thirty five in a span of three weeks. This guy

416
00:21:10,920 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 2: is scorching hot. He's one of the longest hitters on tour.

417
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:17,119
Speaker 2: He's one of the best long iron players in the world,

418
00:21:17,200 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 2: has been for the last three years. Kurt Kittiyama piping

419
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:24,360
Speaker 2: hot getting great odds at plus five thousand. That's your

420
00:21:24,359 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 2: hammer of the week right there. It's like, not just

421
00:21:26,840 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: the guy that I know personally being a Homer. This

422
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 2: guy is absolutely scorching and he is getting extremely good

423
00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:36,040
Speaker 2: odds on a golf course that is perfectly fit for

424
00:21:36,080 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 2: his game. I can't wait to watch what he can

425
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:42,040
Speaker 2: do to this golf course with the form he's entering

426
00:21:42,080 --> 00:21:44,520
Speaker 2: the week on. And then I'm also a little bit

427
00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,840
Speaker 2: on Taylor Pendrith at sixty five to one. He's that

428
00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: long hitter, good ball striker, and kind of been picking

429
00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,160
Speaker 2: up the putting a little bit better these last few weeks.

430
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,200
Speaker 2: So don't be surprised if Taylor Pendrith starts to make

431
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,120
Speaker 2: at a lot of low scores. It puts together clusters

432
00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 2: of birdies and puts himself in contention at sixty five

433
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,520
Speaker 2: to one. I've done crazier stuff with five bucks.

434
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 1: Yeah. Kidi Yama also possibly positioning himself for a Ryder

435
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,159
Speaker 1: Cup spot if he can finish strong these last two weeks.

436
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,280
Speaker 2: He's got the clutch gen pat ice ice water in

437
00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: his veins.

438
00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:25,400
Speaker 1: On the other side of the Ryder Cup. It seems

439
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:27,800
Speaker 1: like fifty five to one is a pretty good price

440
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:31,160
Speaker 1: for Robert McIntyre, who was rock solid all around game

441
00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,880
Speaker 1: except for maybe his wedge play, which probably isn't going

442
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 1: to come into play very much this week. And this

443
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 1: is a guy who just seems to answer the call

444
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,400
Speaker 1: in big moments bo and this is a pretty big

445
00:22:43,440 --> 00:22:45,600
Speaker 1: moment with two tournaments left, so I like him at

446
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,520
Speaker 1: fifty five to one. Sung JM is starting to sort

447
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,399
Speaker 1: of come out of a slump. He's finished twenty seventh

448
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 1: and seventeenth the last two weeks, and he finished third

449
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,080
Speaker 1: at Caves Valley in twenty twenty one, so he does

450
00:22:57,080 --> 00:23:01,080
Speaker 1: seem to like this course. Move on to the long

451
00:23:01,119 --> 00:23:03,760
Speaker 1: shots ball. Not many guys we haven't talked about already

452
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 1: or listed as far as odds. They are fourteen players

453
00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: in the field with odds of one hundred to one

454
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 1: or longer for an outright win. Are any of them

455
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 1: worth considering?

456
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,120
Speaker 2: I have one guy at one hundred and ten to one,

457
00:23:14,160 --> 00:23:18,680
Speaker 2: and that's Sam Stevens, top five in strokes gain tea

458
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:21,199
Speaker 2: green off the tees in the top ten birdies are

459
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,120
Speaker 2: better top ten, he's top fifteen and putting on bent

460
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 2: not the best on approach, but a very very good

461
00:23:29,080 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 2: off the tee player eleven eleventh in this field and

462
00:23:31,960 --> 00:23:34,600
Speaker 2: driving distance, I think that he's going to put himself

463
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:37,760
Speaker 2: in a lot of positions. I don't necessarily like betting

464
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 2: Sam Stevens very often, but one hundred and ten to one,

465
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,639
Speaker 2: where it's only forty nine guys in the field, it

466
00:23:42,680 --> 00:23:44,960
Speaker 2: means he's only got to beat forty eight guys and

467
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:48,439
Speaker 2: he's playing really well lately. I think I'll take a

468
00:23:48,440 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 2: flyer on Sam Stevens at one hundred and ten to one.

469
00:23:51,720 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 1: Speaking of flyers, Jonathan Vegas is a guy who seems

470
00:23:56,119 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 1: to show up occasionally at birdie fasts. I don't really

471
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 1: like him outright this week, but BO, but a top

472
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 1: ten at plus five fifty. I mean, Johnny Vegas is

473
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,360
Speaker 1: a streaky guy, and he's coming off a pretty good

474
00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:09,679
Speaker 1: showing at the FedEx Saint Jude where he was fourteenth.

475
00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:12,000
Speaker 1: All right, who do you have on your early betting card?

476
00:24:12,040 --> 00:24:15,400
Speaker 2: BO, I have Rory McRoy at plus seven hundred, Ludvig

477
00:24:15,440 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 2: Oberg at plus twenty five hundred, Victor Holand at thirty

478
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 2: five to one, Kirk Kitty I'm at fifty to one,

479
00:24:21,520 --> 00:24:24,240
Speaker 2: Taylor Pendrith at sixty five and Sam Stevens at one

480
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:25,240
Speaker 2: hundred and ten to one.

481
00:24:26,640 --> 00:24:29,640
Speaker 1: You have talked me into living Oberg at twenty five

482
00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 1: to one. I'm gonna place a little something on him.

483
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:35,479
Speaker 1: I also like Cameron Young at thirty to one, and

484
00:24:35,520 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 1: I'm making bets on a couple of euros Justin Rose

485
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 1: at forty to one and Robert mcintired fifty five to one,

486
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 1: and I will put down that Johnny Vegas top ten

487
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:48,520
Speaker 1: bet at plus five point fifty. Now for our one

488
00:24:48,560 --> 00:24:52,720
Speaker 1: in Dune picks Bowhead Locker Room Menace Wyndham Clark. Last

489
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 1: week he tied for fifty sixth earning forty five eight

490
00:24:57,359 --> 00:25:00,919
Speaker 1: hundred dollars. I had Victor Hovland. He tied for thirty seconds,

491
00:25:01,040 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 1: earning one hundred and eleven thousand, one hundred and sixty

492
00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 1: six dollars and sixty seven cents. And with one week

493
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:10,159
Speaker 1: left to play, Bow has banked about eight point eight million.

494
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:13,679
Speaker 1: I'm about nine hundred and fifty thousand dollars behind. I

495
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,760
Speaker 1: need to make a major ground in this the final week,

496
00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 1: but Bo has the honors. Who are you taking Bo?

497
00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:22,720
Speaker 2: I'm still trying to find a guy I haven't taken yet.

498
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: Uh, oh, always used up all the big guns. Johnny

499
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: Vegas is still available.

500
00:25:28,440 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 2: But I know he is all right. It is gonna

501
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 2: have to be Colin Morikawa.

502
00:25:39,960 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 1: Colin Morikawa, let's see if he can turn it on

503
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,880
Speaker 1: in this event. I'm gonna go with Ludwig Oberg since

504
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:49,080
Speaker 1: you talked me into him Bow and that way you

505
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,000
Speaker 1: can take credit even if I catch you from behind.

506
00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:55,199
Speaker 1: It beat you in this event, and that's gonna do it.

507
00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 1: For this week's Betting Pros PGA podcast, please join us

508
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: again next week for our final show of the season.

509
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 1: We'll be doing a deep dive on the tour championship.

510
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 1: Until then, so along everyone.

511
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you

512
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,480
Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is

513
00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

514
00:26:16,240 --> 00:26:18,879
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515
00:26:18,960 --> 00:26:22,639
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516
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:36,600
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