WEBVTT - What Facebook and Twitter Did After Jan. 6, 2021

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and

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<v Speaker 1>pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio, or watch us on

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So, as we mentioned earlier

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<v Speaker 1>one year ago, today the US capital is breached by

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<v Speaker 1>supporters of Donald Trump, storming the capital, transforming the global

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<v Speaker 1>conversation around democracy in America. Today, the US is more

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<v Speaker 1>divided than ever and a factor in that division, Tim,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's safe to say the rise of social

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<v Speaker 1>media and the dominant players in that space. We're talking

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<v Speaker 1>about Facebook and Twitter. Yeah, no question about that, Carol

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<v Speaker 1>Naomi Nicks to social media reporter for Bloomberg new She

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<v Speaker 1>joins us on the phone from our New York City bureau.

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<v Speaker 1>Naomi um As we think back to what happened a

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<v Speaker 1>year ago, and more to what happened in the wake

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<v Speaker 1>of a year ago, and I'm talking about Facebook and Twitter,

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<v Speaker 1>uh kicking Trump off of its platforms. How should we

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<v Speaker 1>think about the role that social media companies have taken

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<v Speaker 1>since then, Like, is it changed at all when it

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<v Speaker 1>comes to trying to police their platforms? Well, I think

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<v Speaker 1>in one significant way it has changed, right, and that

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<v Speaker 1>is what you just mentioned, Um, that Facebook, Twitter, and

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<v Speaker 1>YouTube actually and others made moves to kick Trump off

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<v Speaker 1>their platforms. It was one of the most aggressive actions

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<v Speaker 1>today on political leader and a government, um for violating

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<v Speaker 1>their content rules. And you know that that is that

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<v Speaker 1>is a notable because social media companies have traditionally shied

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<v Speaker 1>away from trying to be the arbiters of truth. They

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<v Speaker 1>like to have a hands off approach on political content.

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<v Speaker 1>Having said that, there are other ways in which um,

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<v Speaker 1>you know these they're a lot of risks that are

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<v Speaker 1>still remain So social media companies are still um spreading

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<v Speaker 1>content that uh roads trust in the democratic process. There

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<v Speaker 1>is still misinformation about what happened in some of these

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<v Speaker 1>social media platforms, and they still sort of have these

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<v Speaker 1>struggles to balance growing their social networks with taking a

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<v Speaker 1>more proactive approach. I can some of this contract, I

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<v Speaker 1>have to say, Naomi, a line in your story. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>A year later, social media companies still don't appear to

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<v Speaker 1>have figured out how to put out these kinds of fire.

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<v Speaker 1>So it says to me, the role of social media

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<v Speaker 1>in igniting another round of fires, political or other, it

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<v Speaker 1>could still happen. It could right So right now we have,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly on the right, a continued drumbeat about, um, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>whether they're the elect the electoral process is fair, whether

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<v Speaker 1>there's widespread fraud. We still have misinformation spreading about that.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's going to be a challenge for social media companies.

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<v Speaker 1>And we're heading into mid term elections in which companies

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<v Speaker 1>are going to have to be policing that kind of

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<v Speaker 1>misinformation in small, hyperlocal races across the country, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>going to be a challenge. What is hold for the

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<v Speaker 1>former president and getting back on these platforms. Is he

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<v Speaker 1>going to be able to get back onto Facebook, on Twitter,

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<v Speaker 1>and on YouTube? So he's banned for two years on Facebook,

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<v Speaker 1>he's permanently banned from Twitter, and so, um, you know

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<v Speaker 1>that that's gonna be difficult for the mid terms. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>but you know, we'll see what holds and whether he'll

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<v Speaker 1>whether he runs again, and whether he'll be able to

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<v Speaker 1>get some of his social media access back. But I

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<v Speaker 1>think it's important to know that there are other political

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<v Speaker 1>years following in his footsteps paddling this information about the election.

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<v Speaker 1>And also, um, you know COVID nineteen. We saw Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>and Twitter make moves early year this month to suspend

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<v Speaker 1>Marjorie Green overspreading COVID miss info and so, uh, Trump

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<v Speaker 1>might not be up for debate on these platforms, but

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<v Speaker 1>there are other public segures who are right. And what's

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<v Speaker 1>interesting my husband shared with my daughter and I um

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<v Speaker 1>a political story today and the headline on is that

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<v Speaker 1>they stormed the capital. Now they're running for office, and

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<v Speaker 1>it talked about at least fifty seven individuals who played

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<v Speaker 1>a role in the day's events, including someone who are

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<v Speaker 1>arrested on charges related to the capital attack. Now we're

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<v Speaker 1>running for office in two so politically will continue to

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<v Speaker 1>feel their impact. When it comes to social media though,

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<v Speaker 1>and Donald Trump specifically, he's developing his own media platforms.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you think about that and how do you

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<v Speaker 1>think that might factor in and how they might police

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<v Speaker 1>maybe what they see is more liberal views. Yeah. Look,

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<v Speaker 1>so there's definitely alternative social media platforms that Trump and

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<v Speaker 1>other other folks who um feel they're being treated on fairly. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>the mainstream outlet's can falct to. You know, we saw

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<v Speaker 1>that with Parwer and gab Um. I don't I think though,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's very much true that the mainstream players Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, um.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, they have the dominant platform and these smaller

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<v Speaker 1>these smaller platforms aren't going to be able to give

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<v Speaker 1>people like Trump, uh the megaphone that they once had. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And we saw, you know, we saw some results. There

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<v Speaker 1>was actually a study that the Washington Post covered from

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<v Speaker 1>Signal Labs, you know, that show documented how some of

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<v Speaker 1>the misinformation around the election declined in the wake of

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<v Speaker 1>Trump's de platform ng um. And so I think it's, um,

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<v Speaker 1>it'll be difficult for for Trump to be able to

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<v Speaker 1>match uh, that kind of reach with his own platform.

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<v Speaker 1>He Now mean, before we let you go, and just

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<v Speaker 1>in the last thirty seconds that we have with you,

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<v Speaker 1>talk a little bit about what was happening at Facebook

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<v Speaker 1>on January six. Yeah, I mean, look, Facebook took down

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<v Speaker 1>one of the stop the steel groups. But what would

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<v Speaker 1>happen is it was kind of a game of whack

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<v Speaker 1>a mole. Another group would pop up and it would

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<v Speaker 1>grow really, really rapidly, and the company struggled to address

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<v Speaker 1>those ballooning pages and group who were spreading misinformation about

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<v Speaker 1>the election. Interesting, uh, and social media, you know, continue

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<v Speaker 1>to get caught in the cross you know, hairs of

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<v Speaker 1>all of this. But I think about Tim, how much

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<v Speaker 1>how many people get their news from there, and so

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<v Speaker 1>you have to think about what's the responsibility of them

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of the platforms? Are they platforms? Are the

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<v Speaker 1>media companies? And also you know Twitter's new CEO, what

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<v Speaker 1>role does is he play in managing that type of

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<v Speaker 1>stuff on the platform? I think that still remains to

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<v Speaker 1>be seen since he's been there well in the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>position for such a short time. And traditional media is

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<v Speaker 1>increasingly becoming social media as well, and yet there's a

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<v Speaker 1>responsibility about what goes on those platforms. All right, you're

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<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg business Speak or thanks to naomenic social

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<v Speaker 1>media reporter a Bloomberg News this is Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>with Carol mass Sure and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio. So billionaire in Virgin group founder Richard

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<v Speaker 1>Branson and his wife among the latest report getting COVID.

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<v Speaker 1>Branson have said to have a mild case. We are

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<v Speaker 1>seeing uh shortage of at home tests and trying to

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<v Speaker 1>deal with that as well. No joke. I do feel

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<v Speaker 1>like I have more friends right now with COVID who

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<v Speaker 1>are in isolation than those who aren't. Yeah, every time

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<v Speaker 1>I get on the but we see it playing out

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<v Speaker 1>in the data to all over the place. Hey, let's

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<v Speaker 1>get to our daily round up when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic and COVID headlines. Dr in LUs Better back

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<v Speaker 1>with us, clinical professor of Medicine at n y U

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<v Speaker 1>Land going on the phone in New York City, and

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<v Speaker 1>we know that you are under the weather as well,

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<v Speaker 1>so we wish you well. How are you doing? But

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<v Speaker 1>you you don't have COVID corrector at least you haven't

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<v Speaker 1>tested positive. Is that right right? No, no positive tests yet.

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<v Speaker 1>I've had you energens negatives and a nasal swab negative

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<v Speaker 1>for flu um my bed is. When I test later today,

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<v Speaker 1>I would not be shocked if it's positive, basically exposed

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<v Speaker 1>as we all are too. Men patients who are asymptomatic

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<v Speaker 1>who have COVID, and that's really part of the reason

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<v Speaker 1>it's spreading so much is because people can spread it

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<v Speaker 1>before they have any symptoms. What are the symptoms that

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<v Speaker 1>you have right now really primarily a laryngitis and classic

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<v Speaker 1>upper respiratory symptoms nasal congestions, sore throat, mild cloth that's

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<v Speaker 1>really the classic omicron symptoms UM as opposed to the

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<v Speaker 1>original alpha variant, which was much more deadly, much more lethal,

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<v Speaker 1>with really lower respiratory symptoms. So we're seeing this huge

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<v Speaker 1>spike in cases. Slight increase in hospitalization is not dramatic

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<v Speaker 1>yet the death rate fairly flat, so we see that

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<v Speaker 1>this is very contagious kind of mild to moderate symptoms

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<v Speaker 1>UM with no significant increase in deaths at this point. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>Dr les Mater, I just want to make sure I

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<v Speaker 1>get this right. The two antigen tests that you took,

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<v Speaker 1>those are also known as rapid tests, right, those tests correct,

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<v Speaker 1>Those showed that you do not have COVID. And then

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<v Speaker 1>the nasal SWABI took us for the flu. You've tested

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<v Speaker 1>negative for the flu, but you haven't yet taken a

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<v Speaker 1>PCR test for COVID no. The nasal swab was a

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<v Speaker 1>PCR test and that was for UH. It's a double

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<v Speaker 1>it's called the LEAT. It's a rapid test which we

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<v Speaker 1>have available in some centers and the turnaround is amazing.

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<v Speaker 1>It's like thirty minutes or less. And that tests for

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<v Speaker 1>FLU and PCR for COVID nineteen and that didn't You

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<v Speaker 1>said he didn't have it though, that's right, But all

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<v Speaker 1>of these tests are not perfect. We see longlines. People

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<v Speaker 1>are getting tested for no symptoms or mild exposure. So

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<v Speaker 1>really there's UH. I don't want to say we're running

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<v Speaker 1>out of tests, but there's a very big demand, and

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<v Speaker 1>really we're not changing the way we treat people at

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<v Speaker 1>this point. A very select group get monoclonal antibodies. The

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<v Speaker 1>prior monoclonal antibodies UM have been shown not to be

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<v Speaker 1>that effective, so we do have for elderly people or

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<v Speaker 1>people with underlying significant disease COPD, etcetera. There is some

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<v Speaker 1>monoclonal antibodies and of course PAxx lavit from fisser UH,

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<v Speaker 1>the oral medications UM, but really a lot of this

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<v Speaker 1>is just symptomatic stay home rest, fluid hydration UH and

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<v Speaker 1>it seems to resolve within you know, six to ten days,

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<v Speaker 1>and you are triple vaccinated. Correct, yes, triple vaccinated. But

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<v Speaker 1>I know patients who have had COVID three vaccines that

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<v Speaker 1>have still gotten O macron. So you know, we know

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<v Speaker 1>there are thirty two mutations, uh, thirty plus in the

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<v Speaker 1>spike protein. So really this is able to evade UM

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the prior vaccines, which are still alpha vaccines, right,

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<v Speaker 1>So it's um been a number of variants, and you

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<v Speaker 1>know this may become endemic. You know, there may be

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<v Speaker 1>sort of a yearly seasonal COVID. We've talked about that,

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<v Speaker 1>but we won't need to come up eventually with a

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<v Speaker 1>more specific both treatment and probably prevention uh in order

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<v Speaker 1>to prevent us from becoming more seasonal. But if this point,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're going to reach our peak in January.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably by end of January, February will see cases drop,

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<v Speaker 1>mainly because everyone will have been exposed and m will

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<v Speaker 1>be some degree herd immunity at least for this round

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<v Speaker 1>and for this variant. Tim and I were talking about

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<v Speaker 1>that earlier. We keep overhearing from various individuals where we're

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<v Speaker 1>all going to get this. We're all going to get this,

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<v Speaker 1>and we certainly have heard it from the likes of

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<v Speaker 1>you and others in the medical community. At the same time,

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<v Speaker 1>it's hard not to still in, you know, after two

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<v Speaker 1>years and counting of doing everything and anything to avoid

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<v Speaker 1>at the thought of Okay, in the end, we're all

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<v Speaker 1>going to get it. Having said that, Dr LUs Bader,

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<v Speaker 1>and you are so gracious to come on with us

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<v Speaker 1>because we can hear it in your voice, and we

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<v Speaker 1>hope you're gonna get a lot of rest after after

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<v Speaker 1>we finish our conversation. Is there still the possibility of

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<v Speaker 1>another variant, and as you said, it's multiple mute mutations

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<v Speaker 1>in an omicron. Should we anticipate that there will be

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<v Speaker 1>another variant possibly after this that could be even more

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<v Speaker 1>probably matic? Personally, I don't think so. I think this

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<v Speaker 1>widespread herd immunity, at least in the US will keep

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<v Speaker 1>most everyone safe. You know, the O macron did develop

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<v Speaker 1>uh in South Africa, so it's a big world. There

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<v Speaker 1>are eight billion people. You know, it's hard to say

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<v Speaker 1>for sure there won't be a son of omecron, which

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<v Speaker 1>is possible. This coast seems to be very you know,

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<v Speaker 1>displacing the alpha and Delta's it's highly contagious, very efficient. Personally,

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<v Speaker 1>I think O Macron will be kind of the end

0:12:30.679 --> 0:12:33.200
<v Speaker 1>of the global pandemic. I think everyone will get it.

0:12:33.559 --> 0:12:36.720
<v Speaker 1>Most people will do fine, will get answer bodies. I

0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:40.559
<v Speaker 1>don't think there's gonna be another variant, but it's certainly possible.

0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:44.160
<v Speaker 1>Uh and hopefully it will be um much milder, but

0:12:44.240 --> 0:12:47.760
<v Speaker 1>we don't know for sure. Well, we're certainly sending you

0:12:47.800 --> 0:12:51.040
<v Speaker 1>our best wishes. Dr LUs Bader. Really appreciate you taking

0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:52.720
<v Speaker 1>the time on a day when we know you're under

0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:55.520
<v Speaker 1>the weather to share with us not only your experience

0:12:55.559 --> 0:12:58.719
<v Speaker 1>but your outlook for the next few months. Yeah, take care,

0:12:58.720 --> 0:13:01.600
<v Speaker 1>get better soon, and definitely go rest and and our

0:13:01.600 --> 0:13:03.720
<v Speaker 1>thoughts are with you. Dr Ian last bad Or, Clinical

0:13:03.720 --> 0:13:05.800
<v Speaker 1>professor of Medicine at n hy U Land Going Medical

0:13:05.880 --> 0:13:08.080
<v Speaker 1>Center on the phone in New York City, as he said,

0:13:08.080 --> 0:13:10.040
<v Speaker 1>he's so far he hasn't tested positive for it. But

0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:11.559
<v Speaker 1>you know this is the tricky part of testing. You

0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:13.000
<v Speaker 1>and I talked about this. I want to send him

0:13:13.000 --> 0:13:15.440
<v Speaker 1>some soup. I want to send him some sus sounds

0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:17.760
<v Speaker 1>like heat, some soup. Yeah, I hope he takes some

0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.440
<v Speaker 1>rest and just really takes care of himself. You know

0:13:20.520 --> 0:13:22.440
<v Speaker 1>he is vaccinated, and from what we hear from a

0:13:22.440 --> 0:13:24.960
<v Speaker 1>lot of folks that when you are that certainly can

0:13:25.000 --> 0:13:28.080
<v Speaker 1>put you at a great advantage. You're listening to Bloomberg

0:13:28.120 --> 0:13:31.800
<v Speaker 1>Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:35.800
<v Speaker 1>Stinovich on Bloomberg Radio. The new issue of Bloomberg Business Week,

0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:38.559
<v Speaker 1>by the way out on news stands. It's also online

0:13:38.600 --> 0:13:41.240
<v Speaker 1>at business week dot com, excuse me, and also on

0:13:41.280 --> 0:13:44.359
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg terminal. Now, as we continue to battle the pandemic,

0:13:44.400 --> 0:13:48.160
<v Speaker 1>we similarly similarly excuse me, I can't speak. I'm ready

0:13:48.160 --> 0:13:51.080
<v Speaker 1>for Friday. We also continue to tally up the cost

0:13:51.120 --> 0:13:54.120
<v Speaker 1>of it around the globe and Tim Bloomberg Business Week

0:13:54.440 --> 0:13:58.000
<v Speaker 1>really gets into it this week about the progress when

0:13:58.080 --> 0:14:00.960
<v Speaker 1>it comes to women, especially in those developed countries. Let's

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.600
<v Speaker 1>get into it with Jill Filipovic, freelance writer for Bloomberg

0:14:04.600 --> 0:14:07.319
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. She joins us on the phone from Brooklyn jail.

0:14:07.360 --> 0:14:10.480
<v Speaker 1>For twenty five years, girls in developing countries have been

0:14:10.679 --> 0:14:15.360
<v Speaker 1>on this remarkable trajectory of progress, but the pandemic is

0:14:15.840 --> 0:14:18.440
<v Speaker 1>reversing that. What did what did you find at the

0:14:18.440 --> 0:14:22.880
<v Speaker 1>girls Rescue House in Kenya. Yeah, thanks so much for

0:14:22.920 --> 0:14:25.920
<v Speaker 1>having me on. So I reported this story UM from

0:14:26.000 --> 0:14:30.000
<v Speaker 1>Kenya from various parts of the country, looking at how

0:14:30.360 --> 0:14:34.360
<v Speaker 1>not just COVID the disease, but COVID related shutdowns have

0:14:34.680 --> 0:14:39.560
<v Speaker 1>essentially reversed twenty five years of pretty steady progress for girls.

0:14:39.880 --> 0:14:41.920
<v Speaker 1>You know, what we've seen over the past quarter century

0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:45.000
<v Speaker 1>is that girls were largely on an upward trajectory. They

0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.720
<v Speaker 1>were staying in school longer, they were getting married and

0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:52.760
<v Speaker 1>having babies later. They were living healthier and more prosperous lives.

0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:55.640
<v Speaker 1>And then when COVID hit, and when three and fifty

0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:58.800
<v Speaker 1>million children around the world, um, you know, we're out

0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>of school, miss being their most consistent meal of the day,

0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:06.840
<v Speaker 1>often stuck at home and abusive situation is Um, what

0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:08.840
<v Speaker 1>we've seen is that a lot of that progress has

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:12.240
<v Speaker 1>been reversed. Even if schools are reopening, a lot of

0:15:12.280 --> 0:15:15.000
<v Speaker 1>girls are not going back, some because their parents are

0:15:15.080 --> 0:15:19.160
<v Speaker 1>unemployed and camp paid to school fees. Um. Some many

0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:22.680
<v Speaker 1>because they have gotten pregnant during the pandemic. UM. So

0:15:22.800 --> 0:15:27.560
<v Speaker 1>it's it's a huge and slow moving disaster, and lots

0:15:27.560 --> 0:15:29.880
<v Speaker 1>of public health experts and folks who work in the

0:15:29.920 --> 0:15:34.120
<v Speaker 1>development space are essentially saying that now is the moment

0:15:34.200 --> 0:15:36.120
<v Speaker 1>that we can act on this, and then if we

0:15:36.200 --> 0:15:41.000
<v Speaker 1>don't put measures in place to reverse uh, these really

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.240
<v Speaker 1>disastrous effects for girls, we're going to see the ripple

0:15:44.280 --> 0:15:47.720
<v Speaker 1>effects not just for this generation, but for generations to come. Well,

0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:49.800
<v Speaker 1>and you get into Jill, this is a story we

0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:52.320
<v Speaker 1>talked about with Bloomberg Business. We get our Joel Webber

0:15:52.400 --> 0:15:55.680
<v Speaker 1>for our Bloomberg Business Week weekend show, which airs on

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:58.240
<v Speaker 1>the weekend on Bloomberg Radio and it's also on and

0:15:58.240 --> 0:16:01.120
<v Speaker 1>on our podcast feed. But what's interesting is that you know,

0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:04.120
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic has been going on for a couple of years,

0:16:04.120 --> 0:16:06.880
<v Speaker 1>and you point out in your story that there's some

0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:11.600
<v Speaker 1>really significant numbers already showing what has happened according to

0:16:11.640 --> 0:16:14.080
<v Speaker 1>AID groups. You write, teen pregnancy rates and some Kenyan

0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:16.880
<v Speaker 1>countries tripled in the first few months of the pandemic.

0:16:16.920 --> 0:16:20.280
<v Speaker 1>Early numbers indicating the adolescent maternal deaths and still births

0:16:20.440 --> 0:16:23.120
<v Speaker 1>increased during that same period. You know, very easy for

0:16:23.160 --> 0:16:26.360
<v Speaker 1>us in the developed world to to maybe not think

0:16:26.520 --> 0:16:30.840
<v Speaker 1>so much about teenage pregnancy or potentially losing your life

0:16:30.880 --> 0:16:35.640
<v Speaker 1>from a pregnancy, because we don't have the problems on

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>the same scale that the developing world it has UH

0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.080
<v Speaker 1>and and they really continue to have to deal with that,

0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:46.360
<v Speaker 1>and it really can set women back in a big way, right.

0:16:46.400 --> 0:16:48.560
<v Speaker 1>And I think one thing to keep in mind is

0:16:48.600 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>that when we talk about investing in women and girls,

0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:55.040
<v Speaker 1>that's a really high yield investment. UM. We're not just

0:16:55.200 --> 0:16:57.600
<v Speaker 1>investing in individuals. When you invest in a girl and

0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:01.120
<v Speaker 1>a woman, you invested an entire community. We know that

0:17:01.360 --> 0:17:05.199
<v Speaker 1>girls to delay marriage and delay child bearing go on

0:17:05.359 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 1>to have healthier children. We know that educated women are

0:17:08.359 --> 0:17:12.040
<v Speaker 1>more likely to raise children who are able to pursue

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.920
<v Speaker 1>education themselves. We know that women who have higher levels

0:17:15.920 --> 0:17:19.320
<v Speaker 1>of education and can plan their families are less likely

0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to be stuck in abusive relationships. They're less likely to

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.320
<v Speaker 1>die in child of birth, and their children are less

0:17:24.320 --> 0:17:26.919
<v Speaker 1>likely to die at young ages. And so you have

0:17:27.080 --> 0:17:30.520
<v Speaker 1>all of these downstream ripple effects UH, and they can

0:17:30.560 --> 0:17:34.240
<v Speaker 1>be positive repo effects if we invest in girls. The

0:17:34.359 --> 0:17:38.159
<v Speaker 1>problem with what we're seeing with COVID's impact on girls

0:17:38.160 --> 0:17:41.600
<v Speaker 1>and the impact of COVID shutdowns UH is that many

0:17:41.640 --> 0:17:44.840
<v Speaker 1>of these positive impacts have been walked back, and we're

0:17:44.840 --> 0:17:48.080
<v Speaker 1>seeing girls start to have babies earlier, get married earlier

0:17:48.240 --> 0:17:52.480
<v Speaker 1>undergoes things like female genital cutting UM, and that impacts

0:17:52.480 --> 0:17:57.840
<v Speaker 1>obviously the opportunities for these girls right now, but also

0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:01.200
<v Speaker 1>for their children, and for the entirety of their communities,

0:18:01.520 --> 0:18:04.560
<v Speaker 1>and frankly for the entire economy and well being of

0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:06.920
<v Speaker 1>the world. Well, Jill, you know, Carol mentioned that we

0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:09.440
<v Speaker 1>spoke about this in our recording for the Weekend show,

0:18:09.440 --> 0:18:11.280
<v Speaker 1>And the point that I brought up is that we

0:18:11.320 --> 0:18:15.320
<v Speaker 1>hear so much about daily data cases, worldwide hospitalizations, worldwide

0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:17.560
<v Speaker 1>deaths worldwide. Those are the direct effects of COVID, but

0:18:17.640 --> 0:18:20.639
<v Speaker 1>the the indirect effects of COVID. I'm wondering how you

0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:23.639
<v Speaker 1>measure the indirect effects that you write about in your story.

0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:25.879
<v Speaker 1>What is the data? What are the data that we

0:18:25.920 --> 0:18:29.080
<v Speaker 1>need to be paying attention to. Well, So part of

0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.440
<v Speaker 1>the challenge is that because because of COVID itself, because

0:18:32.440 --> 0:18:37.080
<v Speaker 1>it's a contagious respiratory illness, the gold standard for data gathering,

0:18:37.119 --> 0:18:40.320
<v Speaker 1>which is essentially home visits, so going face to face

0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:43.959
<v Speaker 1>with people UM has largely been suspended, and so a

0:18:43.960 --> 0:18:47.320
<v Speaker 1>lot of data gathering organizations are relying on things like

0:18:47.520 --> 0:18:51.440
<v Speaker 1>phone interviews. Well, in many parts of the world, the

0:18:51.480 --> 0:18:53.800
<v Speaker 1>most powerful person in the household who is usually the

0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:56.520
<v Speaker 1>father is the person who has control of the phone, right,

0:18:56.920 --> 0:18:59.680
<v Speaker 1>So you may not be reaching the most vulnerable members

0:18:59.720 --> 0:19:03.240
<v Speaker 1>of that household. You probably aren't reaching adolescent girls. So

0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:07.000
<v Speaker 1>there are huge gaps in the data. Um. The data

0:19:07.080 --> 0:19:11.760
<v Speaker 1>that we do have shows a pretty dire picture. UM.

0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:13.240
<v Speaker 1>You know, I know you already mentioned this, but it

0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:17.600
<v Speaker 1>shows an uptick uh in adolescent pregnancies, and adolescent pregnancy

0:19:17.760 --> 0:19:20.920
<v Speaker 1>is the number one killer of girls in the developing world,

0:19:21.000 --> 0:19:24.159
<v Speaker 1>of adolescent girls and the developing world. UM. So, so

0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:27.720
<v Speaker 1>that's a pretty significant problem. Uh. We know that huge

0:19:27.800 --> 0:19:30.600
<v Speaker 1>numbers of young people have gone hungry. We know that

0:19:30.640 --> 0:19:34.520
<v Speaker 1>we've seen increased reports of domestic violence, uh and not

0:19:34.640 --> 0:19:38.080
<v Speaker 1>just partner violence, but no violence in the home parents

0:19:38.080 --> 0:19:41.520
<v Speaker 1>of using children, for example. UM. And we know that

0:19:41.600 --> 0:19:45.800
<v Speaker 1>many children have not returned to school after they've dropped out. UM.

0:19:45.800 --> 0:19:50.520
<v Speaker 1>In Kenya, for example, once schools reopened, significantly larger proportions

0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:53.719
<v Speaker 1>of boys than girls returned to the classroom. UM. So

0:19:53.760 --> 0:19:58.200
<v Speaker 1>a lot of these girls are just lost. Um. And still,

0:19:58.280 --> 0:20:01.560
<v Speaker 1>because COVID is an ongoing crisis US, we don't fully

0:20:01.680 --> 0:20:06.600
<v Speaker 1>know just how devastating the impacts are. You know reminder

0:20:06.680 --> 0:20:08.760
<v Speaker 1>that we talked him and I talked about this a lot,

0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:12.560
<v Speaker 1>Um Jill, this idea that this pandemic, you know, you

0:20:12.560 --> 0:20:15.080
<v Speaker 1>really have to think about your community. Uh. It's not

0:20:15.119 --> 0:20:17.760
<v Speaker 1>necessarily those who live next door to you, your neighborhood,

0:20:17.840 --> 0:20:20.000
<v Speaker 1>or who you work with, but it's also your global community.

0:20:20.119 --> 0:20:22.719
<v Speaker 1>Right in terms of getting this under control. UM, just

0:20:22.720 --> 0:20:25.480
<v Speaker 1>got about forty seconds left here. The responsibility of the

0:20:25.520 --> 0:20:29.880
<v Speaker 1>developed world and helping out this is important. It's it's

0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:32.360
<v Speaker 1>very important. So, I mean, one thing the developed world

0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:36.040
<v Speaker 1>can do is as we're funding COVID recovery, to remember

0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:38.720
<v Speaker 1>that we are all deeply connected. The lesson we really

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.719
<v Speaker 1>should have learned during a global pandemic, UM, and so

0:20:42.840 --> 0:20:45.639
<v Speaker 1>making sure that as we are doing a recovery, that

0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:48.840
<v Speaker 1>it is looking beyond our borders, and that we're making

0:20:48.880 --> 0:20:52.760
<v Speaker 1>sure that we invest uh in girls and women and

0:20:52.800 --> 0:20:55.159
<v Speaker 1>the people that have really borne the largest front of

0:20:55.200 --> 0:21:00.320
<v Speaker 1>this pandemic, not just physically but also economically and terms

0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:03.320
<v Speaker 1>of development. All Right, we're gonna leave it on that note, UM, Jill,

0:21:03.400 --> 0:21:05.800
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. Really an important read, uh and

0:21:05.920 --> 0:21:10.040
<v Speaker 1>some great reporting. UM Jill Philippovich. She is a Bloomberg

0:21:10.080 --> 0:21:12.480
<v Speaker 1>Business Week freelance writer. This story is in the new

0:21:12.520 --> 0:21:15.800
<v Speaker 1>issue of Bloomberg Business Week magazine. You can get that

0:21:15.920 --> 0:21:18.440
<v Speaker 1>on newsstand at Bloomberg business Week dot com and also

0:21:18.480 --> 0:21:20.600
<v Speaker 1>of course on the Bloomberg Terminal and again catch it

0:21:20.600 --> 0:21:22.639
<v Speaker 1>in our weekends. Yeah, it's a powerful story. It's a

0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:25.720
<v Speaker 1>heart wrenching story. Definitely encourage everyone to check it out again,

0:21:25.760 --> 0:21:28.399
<v Speaker 1>available at Bloomberg dot com, on the Bloomberg Terminal, and

0:21:28.480 --> 0:21:30.399
<v Speaker 1>on newstands. So like, we'll be measuring the impact of

0:21:30.440 --> 0:21:32.760
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic for some time, right, I mean, look at

0:21:32.760 --> 0:21:35.639
<v Speaker 1>just schools in the US. Exactly. All right, you're listening

0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:41.040
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Radio. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol

0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:45.560
<v Speaker 1>Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

0:21:46.040 --> 0:21:48.119
<v Speaker 1>So Tim, if you're under forty, you've never seen a

0:21:48.119 --> 0:21:52.919
<v Speaker 1>hawk is fed? Okay? President company and included me right exactly,

0:21:53.040 --> 0:21:55.800
<v Speaker 1>And this is what our macroman Cameron Cries writes about

0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:57.840
<v Speaker 1>in this column today. This story, by the way, among

0:21:57.880 --> 0:22:00.920
<v Speaker 1>our most read on the Bloomberg terminal. Everyon is macro

0:22:00.920 --> 0:22:02.960
<v Speaker 1>strategist for Bloomberg News. He joins us on the phone

0:22:03.000 --> 0:22:05.119
<v Speaker 1>from Connecticut. You can follow him on Twitter. By the

0:22:05.119 --> 0:22:07.119
<v Speaker 1>way at fifth Rule, Hey Cameron, I got a question

0:22:07.160 --> 0:22:09.359
<v Speaker 1>for you, Um, when was the last time that the

0:22:09.359 --> 0:22:12.920
<v Speaker 1>Federal Reserve exhibited a quote strong commitment to address elevated

0:22:12.960 --> 0:22:18.240
<v Speaker 1>inflation pressures? The question? Right, I think you can you

0:22:18.240 --> 0:22:22.280
<v Speaker 1>can pretty much argue it was. Um. You know, I

0:22:22.359 --> 0:22:27.120
<v Speaker 1>like to think of tightening cycles in two broad categories.

0:22:27.160 --> 0:22:30.040
<v Speaker 1>One is a central bank that's hiking because it quote

0:22:30.119 --> 0:22:33.560
<v Speaker 1>unquote wants to I it wants to adjust the level

0:22:33.560 --> 0:22:36.520
<v Speaker 1>of rate. It's almost in a preemptive fashion. Um. And

0:22:36.560 --> 0:22:39.480
<v Speaker 1>then there's the central bank tighten the titan because they

0:22:39.520 --> 0:22:43.879
<v Speaker 1>have to, which is because inflation is becoming an issue.

0:22:44.480 --> 0:22:47.320
<v Speaker 1>And I certainly think that if you look back to

0:22:47.400 --> 0:22:50.879
<v Speaker 1>two thousand four, two thousand six cycle and then the

0:22:50.920 --> 0:22:55.760
<v Speaker 1>most recent one from the end of through the end

0:22:55.800 --> 0:22:59.080
<v Speaker 1>of UM, both of those were cycles in which the

0:22:59.080 --> 0:23:03.280
<v Speaker 1>Fed hiked because as they wanted to. And characteristics of

0:23:03.320 --> 0:23:06.000
<v Speaker 1>that sort of cycle is that they can guide exactly

0:23:06.080 --> 0:23:09.919
<v Speaker 1>what they're gonna do. They move very deliberately basis points

0:23:09.920 --> 0:23:12.440
<v Speaker 1>to move. They're not trying to shock anybody. They don't

0:23:12.440 --> 0:23:15.199
<v Speaker 1>want to upset the apple cart. Um. If you go

0:23:15.240 --> 0:23:20.639
<v Speaker 1>back to cycle, they hugged very very aggressively with several

0:23:20.680 --> 0:23:23.400
<v Speaker 1>moves of fifty basis points or more, and that sent

0:23:23.480 --> 0:23:28.640
<v Speaker 1>shock waves through the bond market. Um even the cycles

0:23:28.680 --> 0:23:31.639
<v Speaker 1>and ended with a fifty basis point hiked if you

0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:34.400
<v Speaker 1>were forty Really, if you're forty five or below, you've

0:23:34.440 --> 0:23:37.880
<v Speaker 1>never seen the FED hiked by more than basis points.

0:23:37.920 --> 0:23:40.720
<v Speaker 1>So you know, I was thinking about your column when

0:23:40.720 --> 0:23:43.920
<v Speaker 1>you were thinking about how to address the FMC minutes yesterday,

0:23:44.000 --> 0:23:47.040
<v Speaker 1>Cameron and the subsequent market reaction. Why did you write

0:23:47.080 --> 0:23:52.840
<v Speaker 1>this particular column today. Well, I think it's a combination

0:23:52.920 --> 0:23:57.199
<v Speaker 1>of of of a few things. Um. One is that

0:23:57.320 --> 0:24:00.720
<v Speaker 1>they deliberately there were there was a co hoard of

0:24:00.760 --> 0:24:03.840
<v Speaker 1>the committee that deliberately, you know, said that they wanted

0:24:03.880 --> 0:24:08.639
<v Speaker 1>to show the mortket is strong commitment to combating inflation,

0:24:08.720 --> 0:24:11.600
<v Speaker 1>and that's something that hasn't been evident, I mean literally

0:24:11.640 --> 0:24:15.960
<v Speaker 1>in decades UM. And the second, I think is sort

0:24:15.960 --> 0:24:18.639
<v Speaker 1>of the starting point that we're coming from, which is

0:24:18.880 --> 0:24:24.440
<v Speaker 1>really yields or extraordinarily low whether you look at nominal

0:24:24.480 --> 0:24:27.719
<v Speaker 1>treasury yields versus spot inflation, or if you look at

0:24:27.720 --> 0:24:30.920
<v Speaker 1>tips yields, which are more beforeward looking UM measure of

0:24:31.200 --> 0:24:33.600
<v Speaker 1>of real interest rates. There and you have a great

0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:35.520
<v Speaker 1>can I just point out for it's obviously this is

0:24:35.600 --> 0:24:38.360
<v Speaker 1>gonna play so well on radio, but you can go

0:24:38.520 --> 0:24:40.600
<v Speaker 1>to the Bloomberg terminal Blomber dot com. But you've a

0:24:40.600 --> 0:24:43.720
<v Speaker 1>great chart in your story that gives us in perspective

0:24:44.320 --> 0:24:47.400
<v Speaker 1>on yields, right, really yields where we are today versus

0:24:47.440 --> 0:24:49.960
<v Speaker 1>where we are we're twenty years ago. Yeah, I mean

0:24:49.960 --> 0:24:53.320
<v Speaker 1>we've moved up thirty five basis points over the last

0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:55.760
<v Speaker 1>week or so in ten you're real yields, which is

0:24:55.800 --> 0:24:58.480
<v Speaker 1>a pretty big move. We've gone from like minus one

0:24:59.840 --> 0:25:04.160
<v Speaker 1>a leven to minus seventy seven. Um. That's a big move.

0:25:04.320 --> 0:25:06.639
<v Speaker 1>But if you look at the chart, yeah, it doesn't

0:25:06.640 --> 0:25:10.160
<v Speaker 1>even touch the side. It's it's it's it's minuscule. Um.

0:25:10.440 --> 0:25:14.280
<v Speaker 1>I think you can argue more, uh, which is more

0:25:14.280 --> 0:25:17.360
<v Speaker 1>relevant to your average your average listenering, your average investor.

0:25:18.119 --> 0:25:23.680
<v Speaker 1>Is that those extremely negative real real interest rates or

0:25:23.760 --> 0:25:27.240
<v Speaker 1>sort of the foundation for what you might term excessive valuations,

0:25:27.640 --> 0:25:30.439
<v Speaker 1>particularly in riskier areas of the market. You know, the

0:25:30.480 --> 0:25:36.360
<v Speaker 1>speculative stocks that make no money, uh, crypto, the meme stocks, um,

0:25:36.480 --> 0:25:38.800
<v Speaker 1>what have you. And so I think the natural implication

0:25:39.320 --> 0:25:43.000
<v Speaker 1>is if in as the FED does execute a legitimately

0:25:43.119 --> 0:25:46.920
<v Speaker 1>hawkish policy cycle, and and in fairness, the jury remains

0:25:46.960 --> 0:25:49.000
<v Speaker 1>out on that will see how things evolved. But if

0:25:49.040 --> 0:25:51.359
<v Speaker 1>that happens, we could see a very significant move higher

0:25:51.680 --> 0:25:54.800
<v Speaker 1>in real indust rates, and those being the foundation of

0:25:54.920 --> 0:25:57.840
<v Speaker 1>pricing across the risky asset spectrum, could really send I

0:25:57.840 --> 0:26:00.840
<v Speaker 1>think a few shock waves, uh into some of these

0:26:01.160 --> 0:26:03.480
<v Speaker 1>some of these asset and we're already seeing it, certainly

0:26:04.400 --> 0:26:07.320
<v Speaker 1>in some of the more speculative areas of the market.

0:26:07.480 --> 0:26:10.000
<v Speaker 1>So for example, that the NASDA can positive is it's

0:26:10.119 --> 0:26:12.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, it's higher today, but just by one tenth

0:26:12.160 --> 0:26:14.480
<v Speaker 1>of one percent. Do you think that that message that

0:26:14.560 --> 0:26:17.800
<v Speaker 1>was the message that that tech got yesterday, but it's

0:26:17.840 --> 0:26:21.520
<v Speaker 1>somehow not getting it today. I mean, help make the

0:26:21.520 --> 0:26:24.320
<v Speaker 1>connection beyond just a one day of volatility when it

0:26:24.320 --> 0:26:27.480
<v Speaker 1>comes to those high flying tech names. Yeah, I mean

0:26:27.520 --> 0:26:30.720
<v Speaker 1>I think absolutely that it's not just yesterday. I really

0:26:30.840 --> 0:26:35.000
<v Speaker 1>this week. You know, you've seen tech underperformed small caps,

0:26:35.000 --> 0:26:38.320
<v Speaker 1>you've seen growth underperformed value. Those are sort of the

0:26:38.400 --> 0:26:46.720
<v Speaker 1>classic um indications of sort of perceived policy tightening because uh,

0:26:46.800 --> 0:26:52.360
<v Speaker 1>these extraordinarily expensive stocks tech generally um, you know them

0:26:52.720 --> 0:26:55.240
<v Speaker 1>if you will the meme stocks, the innovation stocks, whatever

0:26:55.240 --> 0:26:58.920
<v Speaker 1>you want to call them, a little more specifically, they're

0:26:58.960 --> 0:27:03.760
<v Speaker 1>sort of their priced, uh, you know, kind of discounting

0:27:05.320 --> 0:27:09.120
<v Speaker 1>earnings into the infinite future, you know, today, giving them

0:27:09.119 --> 0:27:11.720
<v Speaker 1>a very high value today. And obviously the higher than

0:27:11.840 --> 0:27:15.199
<v Speaker 1>interest rates go, the more of a discount factor that

0:27:15.240 --> 0:27:18.040
<v Speaker 1>you have to apply in the lower the current present

0:27:18.160 --> 0:27:22.560
<v Speaker 1>value is of those earnings into the into the distant future. Yeah, exactly,

0:27:22.640 --> 0:27:25.200
<v Speaker 1>just and certainly explained some of the pressure that we've seen,

0:27:25.480 --> 0:27:28.800
<v Speaker 1>particularly on some of those higher valued companies. Hey, Cameron

0:27:28.800 --> 0:27:31.320
<v Speaker 1>thinks so much. Karen christ macro strategist at Bloomberg News,

0:27:31.400 --> 0:27:37.000
<v Speaker 1>joining us on the phone in Connecticut. Yeah, but you

0:27:37.119 --> 0:27:39.480
<v Speaker 1>let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no, this is

0:27:39.520 --> 0:27:45.800
<v Speaker 1>not a toy. Please, I'll do the riding revels. I

0:27:45.800 --> 0:27:53.560
<v Speaker 1>don't want to dry. It's good question that drives. This

0:27:54.000 --> 0:27:57.240
<v Speaker 1>is the drive to the globe cimul thing. We'll drive

0:27:57.400 --> 0:28:01.040
<v Speaker 1>up down on Bloomberg Radio. All Right, just about ten

0:28:01.040 --> 0:28:05.159
<v Speaker 1>minutes left in today's trading session, and it's been an

0:28:05.200 --> 0:28:08.720
<v Speaker 1>interesting week already here in still got another day to go.

0:28:08.800 --> 0:28:10.680
<v Speaker 1>We've got that monthly jobs report. Let's get to it.

0:28:10.760 --> 0:28:13.280
<v Speaker 1>The Drive to the close alan Za from founding partner

0:28:13.359 --> 0:28:16.640
<v Speaker 1>in co CEO at i Q Capital with us once

0:28:16.680 --> 0:28:19.400
<v Speaker 1>you get on the phone from Foster City, California. First

0:28:19.440 --> 0:28:21.520
<v Speaker 1>of all, Allen, happy New Year from Tim and me.

0:28:21.640 --> 0:28:24.879
<v Speaker 1>How are you? Hey? I'm doing great, Carol, Happy New

0:28:24.960 --> 0:28:26.920
<v Speaker 1>York to you, and I can tell you thankfully. The

0:28:27.160 --> 0:28:30.320
<v Speaker 1>buildings isn't shaking like a last time. Oh yeah, that's

0:28:30.800 --> 0:28:32.840
<v Speaker 1>yet that small earthquake last time you're on the phone

0:28:32.880 --> 0:28:36.000
<v Speaker 1>with us. Although the markets are shaking. So that's what's

0:28:36.000 --> 0:28:40.440
<v Speaker 1>shaking right now. So doing great? Um? Actually a notice

0:28:40.520 --> 0:28:43.320
<v Speaker 1>that sound terrible. Nice to see a little turbulence and weakness,

0:28:43.440 --> 0:28:46.440
<v Speaker 1>which if you happen to have, you know, a constructive

0:28:46.520 --> 0:28:48.760
<v Speaker 1>longer term view, this is the time to step in

0:28:48.920 --> 0:28:53.640
<v Speaker 1>and increase or consider maintaining. It's not increasing your equity exposure,

0:28:53.640 --> 0:28:55.960
<v Speaker 1>so you know, you get squeaked by this, but yeah,

0:28:56.360 --> 0:29:00.120
<v Speaker 1>buying opportunity, this is this is the time. Though we're mean,

0:29:00.160 --> 0:29:03.320
<v Speaker 1>we're only down, we're only down three on the NASDAC

0:29:03.400 --> 0:29:05.520
<v Speaker 1>year to day. Are you going to expect more buying

0:29:05.560 --> 0:29:09.720
<v Speaker 1>opportunities in the coming weeks and coming months, You never

0:29:09.840 --> 0:29:11.760
<v Speaker 1>know for sure, And of course in the stock pickers

0:29:11.800 --> 0:29:14.640
<v Speaker 1>market as well, some of these stocks, particularly stocks that

0:29:14.640 --> 0:29:17.600
<v Speaker 1>aren't earning anything anytime sooner or interest rate sense of

0:29:17.640 --> 0:29:22.160
<v Speaker 1>work down far more than three UH. If I were

0:29:22.320 --> 0:29:25.120
<v Speaker 1>a long term investor, I would be beginning to dollar

0:29:25.200 --> 0:29:27.920
<v Speaker 1>cost average and being a buyer here. UM. If I

0:29:28.040 --> 0:29:30.360
<v Speaker 1>held stock exposure already, I would not be in a panic.

0:29:30.880 --> 0:29:33.760
<v Speaker 1>I would be looking for eventually the way to increase

0:29:33.840 --> 0:29:38.760
<v Speaker 1>my exposure, particularly to US equities and particularly to growth

0:29:38.920 --> 0:29:44.880
<v Speaker 1>oriented UM US centric businesses, because once we get through

0:29:44.920 --> 0:29:49.720
<v Speaker 1>the stimulus of the pandemic and our economic growth decelerates,

0:29:50.200 --> 0:29:51.640
<v Speaker 1>we are going to get back to the world that

0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:54.800
<v Speaker 1>looked like before two nineteen and twenty, which was a

0:29:55.360 --> 0:29:59.240
<v Speaker 1>slow grinding economy, which was why these large cap tech

0:29:59.320 --> 0:30:04.120
<v Speaker 1>companies that grew despite slow economic global growth still did

0:30:04.240 --> 0:30:07.880
<v Speaker 1>quite well. So that is selectively where you still want

0:30:07.880 --> 0:30:11.280
<v Speaker 1>to be looking equities. It's interesting that you say that, Alan,

0:30:11.320 --> 0:30:13.480
<v Speaker 1>because certainly it's a big part of the conversation has

0:30:13.520 --> 0:30:15.880
<v Speaker 1>been with a trillion dollar tech route that we've seen

0:30:16.720 --> 0:30:19.200
<v Speaker 1>in so many names here in this first week of

0:30:19.280 --> 0:30:23.120
<v Speaker 1>the new year, and so names that have been driving,

0:30:23.200 --> 0:30:26.040
<v Speaker 1>especially those big tech names you know who they are.

0:30:26.640 --> 0:30:29.520
<v Speaker 1>This is an opportunity to maybe get in in at

0:30:29.560 --> 0:30:34.280
<v Speaker 1>a lower valuation. I think so again nibbling. Everyone's gonna say, oh,

0:30:34.400 --> 0:30:37.600
<v Speaker 1>that's balance from Silicon Valley talk in his book. But no,

0:30:38.840 --> 0:30:41.160
<v Speaker 1>that is well where have you added? Where where have

0:30:41.400 --> 0:30:43.680
<v Speaker 1>you or where did you tell people to add? Let's say,

0:30:43.720 --> 0:30:47.600
<v Speaker 1>in the last twenty four hours, people coming, We're saying,

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:51.960
<v Speaker 1>don't panic. Um right. We think this year US equities

0:30:52.000 --> 0:30:54.600
<v Speaker 1>will once again do better than non US equities, both

0:30:54.680 --> 0:30:58.120
<v Speaker 1>emerging market in international non US development markets because of

0:30:58.200 --> 0:31:02.520
<v Speaker 1>better growth, because of better growth. Yes, in fact, you're

0:31:02.520 --> 0:31:05.080
<v Speaker 1>gonna give me to punch line a different way. We

0:31:05.240 --> 0:31:07.800
<v Speaker 1>think Europe is going to be very weak economically, could

0:31:07.840 --> 0:31:11.560
<v Speaker 1>even go into a recession, and China struggling to grow economically.

0:31:12.200 --> 0:31:15.640
<v Speaker 1>That actually will be forces to keep long term interest

0:31:15.720 --> 0:31:18.480
<v Speaker 1>rates down. I think this rise we're seeing in yields

0:31:18.640 --> 0:31:20.800
<v Speaker 1>is to a degree a head fake. I'll be surprised

0:31:20.800 --> 0:31:22.160
<v Speaker 1>if at the end of the year the ten years

0:31:22.160 --> 0:31:23.520
<v Speaker 1>as high as it is today at one and three

0:31:23.600 --> 0:31:30.680
<v Speaker 1>quarters percent. Therefore, therefore, I am willing to buy large

0:31:30.840 --> 0:31:34.160
<v Speaker 1>growth stocks now. I still would rather be in companies

0:31:34.200 --> 0:31:36.600
<v Speaker 1>that really generate earnings. I hate to say this to

0:31:36.680 --> 0:31:40.000
<v Speaker 1>many companies have recently gone public because they are far

0:31:40.120 --> 0:31:43.240
<v Speaker 1>more sensitive to interest rates, and if that outlook is wrong,

0:31:43.800 --> 0:31:48.720
<v Speaker 1>they will get hurt further. But you're safe play. Then

0:31:48.920 --> 0:31:53.840
<v Speaker 1>you're not buying No, no, um no, that was not

0:31:53.960 --> 0:31:56.240
<v Speaker 1>what I would recommend because you know, obviously the earnings aren't.

0:31:56.960 --> 0:31:59.680
<v Speaker 1>Trying to derive a valuation model when a company doesn't

0:31:59.680 --> 0:32:04.400
<v Speaker 1>have things is incredibly complicated. And again, evaluation is based

0:32:04.480 --> 0:32:07.440
<v Speaker 1>on a discounted cashlow model, and the higher the interest rate,

0:32:07.520 --> 0:32:10.920
<v Speaker 1>the less the value of the dollars five, eight, ten

0:32:11.000 --> 0:32:13.080
<v Speaker 1>years from now. Therefore, the company isn't worth as much

0:32:13.120 --> 0:32:14.840
<v Speaker 1>in my model, and that's why I sell that stock.

0:32:15.640 --> 0:32:19.200
<v Speaker 1>If I'm buying the large capitality names, they're generating earnings

0:32:19.240 --> 0:32:21.480
<v Speaker 1>that can figure out the multiple because I know we're

0:32:21.480 --> 0:32:24.080
<v Speaker 1>going to have you back on uh later this year,

0:32:24.240 --> 0:32:25.680
<v Speaker 1>several times before the end of the year. Give me

0:32:25.720 --> 0:32:27.120
<v Speaker 1>that where you where you think that the yield on

0:32:27.200 --> 0:32:28.480
<v Speaker 1>the ten year is going to be by the end

0:32:28.480 --> 0:32:30.640
<v Speaker 1>of the year. I think it's gonna be aroubum one

0:32:30.680 --> 0:32:33.479
<v Speaker 1>and a half percent of the Yeah. Look, there's two

0:32:33.480 --> 0:32:35.760
<v Speaker 1>different things going on with interest rates. First of all,

0:32:35.880 --> 0:32:39.000
<v Speaker 1>we have all those long term secular things. We had

0:32:39.080 --> 0:32:42.440
<v Speaker 1>slow growth, we had aging populations, in the developed countries,

0:32:42.640 --> 0:32:45.840
<v Speaker 1>which is zero Japan and the US globalization, which is

0:32:45.840 --> 0:32:49.000
<v Speaker 1>still around. We have tremendous technological progress pushing down prices.

0:32:49.040 --> 0:32:51.760
<v Speaker 1>Those are the secular forces. On top of that, glowth

0:32:51.880 --> 0:32:54.240
<v Speaker 1>is going to decelerate as we go through the year.

0:32:54.520 --> 0:32:58.400
<v Speaker 1>And most importantly, there's a tremendous correlation between. It happens

0:32:58.440 --> 0:33:01.080
<v Speaker 1>with the German bond market in the US bond market.

0:33:01.400 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 1>It's a global bond market. And when Japanese tenure bonds,

0:33:04.360 --> 0:33:07.600
<v Speaker 1>you'll do nothing, and German bonds are yielding the negative,

0:33:08.120 --> 0:33:11.000
<v Speaker 1>people roll into the U s Treasury market. So I

0:33:11.160 --> 0:33:13.880
<v Speaker 1>am not fearful that we're in a wage spiral inflation

0:33:13.960 --> 0:33:16.080
<v Speaker 1>that's going to decimate the bowl market. It's not over.

0:33:16.320 --> 0:33:19.240
<v Speaker 1>So there is no alternative basically to the US. Having

0:33:19.320 --> 0:33:21.600
<v Speaker 1>said that, in your history of investing, have there been

0:33:21.680 --> 0:33:25.760
<v Speaker 1>times where you have aggressively been overweight either your exposure

0:33:25.800 --> 0:33:28.160
<v Speaker 1>to Asia or to Europe or is the US really

0:33:28.280 --> 0:33:32.880
<v Speaker 1>always kind of a guiding light within your portfolio management? No,

0:33:33.160 --> 0:33:36.000
<v Speaker 1>it's it's in the nineties. You come back a long way.

0:33:36.680 --> 0:33:39.200
<v Speaker 1>It was the era of consumption, particularly in China, and

0:33:39.240 --> 0:33:43.120
<v Speaker 1>it was emerging markets in the ninety nitre roaring um.

0:33:43.320 --> 0:33:46.440
<v Speaker 1>So there were times, but in the last decade, US

0:33:47.120 --> 0:33:50.040
<v Speaker 1>pre eminence in equities is it's been very clear, and

0:33:50.080 --> 0:33:53.200
<v Speaker 1>there's no evidence that that should change anytime soon, particularly

0:33:53.280 --> 0:33:57.560
<v Speaker 1>because most countries have very significant problems with their balance

0:33:57.600 --> 0:34:00.560
<v Speaker 1>sheets the governments at least, and the US is a

0:34:00.640 --> 0:34:05.120
<v Speaker 1>more stabilized place of which to invest. So um emerging

0:34:05.200 --> 0:34:08.800
<v Speaker 1>markets haven't yet stabilized to the point that putting tremendous

0:34:08.800 --> 0:34:11.000
<v Speaker 1>amounts of capital that makes a lot of them. Hey, Allen,

0:34:11.000 --> 0:34:13.000
<v Speaker 1>we only have twenty seconds left with you, But um,

0:34:14.040 --> 0:34:15.279
<v Speaker 1>when do you think we're going to get to that

0:34:15.360 --> 0:34:18.840
<v Speaker 1>point what the world looked before? Like? When are we

0:34:18.880 --> 0:34:20.960
<v Speaker 1>passed the omicron? When are when are we looking past

0:34:21.000 --> 0:34:24.800
<v Speaker 1>the virus and just got about We're behind? We're pasted

0:34:24.840 --> 0:34:27.920
<v Speaker 1>Amicron in three months or less, there may be another

0:34:28.080 --> 0:34:30.719
<v Speaker 1>variant coming. Masks are gonna be worn for the next

0:34:30.760 --> 0:34:34.680
<v Speaker 1>two to three years, but god willing, Amicron is evidence

0:34:34.760 --> 0:34:38.880
<v Speaker 1>that the variants are actually getting less virulent, and hopefully

0:34:38.920 --> 0:34:42.680
<v Speaker 1>that mitigates further hospitalizations and deaths. So we will slowly

0:34:42.719 --> 0:34:45.480
<v Speaker 1>evolved back to something like it looked, although masks will

0:34:45.520 --> 0:34:47.960
<v Speaker 1>probably be worn for a few more years. All right well,

0:34:48.400 --> 0:34:51.880
<v Speaker 1>still optimistic and still liking the United States and especially

0:34:51.920 --> 0:34:54.720
<v Speaker 1>when it comes to those large US growth names. Hey Ellen,

0:34:54.920 --> 0:34:57.400
<v Speaker 1>Happy New Year. Nice to check in with you. Alan Zaffron,

0:34:57.600 --> 0:34:59.920
<v Speaker 1>founding partner and co CEO at I e Q Capital

0:35:00.040 --> 0:35:03.000
<v Speaker 1>on the phone from Foster City, California. Good to check

0:35:03.040 --> 0:35:06.200
<v Speaker 1>in with them, and do stay safe. Thanks for listening

0:35:06.239 --> 0:35:09.680
<v Speaker 1>to Bloomberg Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,

0:35:09.840 --> 0:35:11.960
<v Speaker 1>or Bloomberg dot com, and you can also listen to

0:35:12.000 --> 0:35:14.560
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0:35:14.719 --> 0:35:17.439
<v Speaker 1>or watch us on YouTube search Bloomberg Global News