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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,

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Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of

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Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.

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Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade

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Speaker 2: the studio ad staff, give you, guys, the best independent.

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Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.

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Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means

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Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.

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Speaker 3: But enough with that, Let's get to the show. All right,

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Speaker 3: Good morning, and welcome to Counterpoints. Emily. How you doing.

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Speaker 4: I'm good. I've got a new job.

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Speaker 5: By the way, we should probably mention that I'm now

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Speaker 5: the DC correspondent at Unheard, switched over from the Federalist

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Speaker 5: after six awesome years, but a DC correspondent at Unheard.

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Speaker 5: We're going to be doing some stuff on YouTube, actually,

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Speaker 5: so subscribe to the Unheard YouTube. We'll be launching a show.

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Speaker 5: I'll be co hosting it twice a week and am

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Speaker 5: writing in the meantime. But make sure you stay tuned.

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Speaker 5: Subscribe and we'll be there soon with more.

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Speaker 6: And congratulations on that. Unheard is kind of cool. It's

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Speaker 6: it's not exactly left or right like, isn't it like?

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Speaker 6: Kind of what is the contrarian or like or.

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Speaker 5: I think it trains a good way to put it

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Speaker 5: publishes opinions that aren't you with het, yeah, heterodoxic, Like

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Speaker 5: it really tries to not go in a direction either way.

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Speaker 5: That's like, this is the consensus opinion. You're being pushed

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Speaker 5: by the political establishment. So here's some takes that are

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Speaker 5: kind of different on both sides.

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Speaker 3: Well, congrats, looking forward to your stuff.

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Speaker 5: There, Thanks so much. We have a big show to

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Speaker 5: Actually we have two guests.

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Speaker 6: That's right, We're going to have a liberal Zionist, which

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Speaker 6: is I'll be honest of you, that is probably lacking

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Speaker 6: on this program. Now we have four hosts, probably none

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Speaker 6: of them would consider themselves quote unquote liberal Zionists. So

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Speaker 6: we're gonna have one who's really plugged in and is

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Speaker 6: going to talk about the negotiations inside the Israeli cabinet

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Speaker 6: to get to a place where they're going to be

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Speaker 6: able to if they'll be able to accept a peace deal,

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Speaker 6: if Hamas is going to be able to accept this

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Speaker 6: this deal.

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Speaker 3: So we'll see about that.

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Speaker 6: And also twenty twenty four is a year that is

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Speaker 6: going to go down in history as the kind of

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Speaker 6: the most people voting. Ever, in one year, we've already

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Speaker 6: seen hundreds of millions go to the polls in Pakistan, Indonesia.

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Speaker 3: That gets you know, over five hundred million right there.

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Speaker 6: And just in the last couple of days we had

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Speaker 6: South Africa, Mexico, and India.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they all went to the polls.

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Speaker 6: Fascinating developments out of all of those elections. I think,

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Speaker 6: especially for people who watch this show and are unhappy

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Speaker 6: with elites in the direction that they're taking this country,

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Speaker 6: they might be pretty pleased to see the results in

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Speaker 6: some of those countries as well.

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Speaker 3: We'll we'll unpack like why.

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Speaker 5: That is right, Yeah, you're going to become remotey. We

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Speaker 5: have one w rosehas here from Compact. She's going to

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Speaker 5: talk about the election of Claudia Shanebaum in Mexico. I

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Speaker 5: think that's a much more interesting development than some people

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Speaker 5: are giving it credit for, given that she's you just

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Speaker 5: sort of Amlow's successors how she's being covered, but she's

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Speaker 5: interesting because she's different than him in several ways. Now,

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Speaker 5: speaking of Mexico, the big story this morning is actually,

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Speaker 5: i would say Ryan Democratic reactions to Joe Biden's executive

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Speaker 5: order that would cap daily border crossings. We're going to

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Speaker 5: get into all of that right now, let's put this

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Speaker 5: first element a one up on the screen. The New

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Speaker 5: York Times headline is in shift Biden issues order allowing

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Speaker 5: temporary border closure to migrants.

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Speaker 4: Now some of the details of this.

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Speaker 5: Basically, as this went into effect at twelve oh one

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Speaker 5: pm or twetal one am, I should say, last night,

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Speaker 5: at twenty five hundred crossings illegal entries is how the

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Speaker 5: New York Times says it. Seven day average for illegal

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Speaker 5: entries hits twenty five hundred per day. That had already happened.

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Speaker 5: So that's why the order went into effect at twelve

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Speaker 5: one am.

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Speaker 4: So let's take a.

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Speaker 5: Listen actually to what Biden said when he signed the

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Speaker 5: bill first or the executive order first.

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Speaker 7: Here he is, I've come here today to do what

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Speaker 7: Republics in Congress refused to do, take the necessary steps

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Speaker 7: to secure our border. Four months ago, after weeks of

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Speaker 7: intense negotiation between my staff and Democrats Republicans, we came

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Speaker 7: to a clear bipartisan deal. It was the strongest border

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Speaker 7: security agreement in decades. Then Republicans in Congress not all

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Speaker 7: but walked away from it. Why because Donald Trump told

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Speaker 7: them to He told the Republicans, who has been published

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Speaker 7: widely by many of you, that he didn't want to

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Speaker 7: fix the issue. He wanted to use it to attack me.

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Speaker 7: That's what he wanted to do. Is a cynical and

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Speaker 7: an extremely cynical political move and a complete disservice to

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Speaker 7: the American people who are looking for us to not

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Speaker 7: to weaponize the border, but to fix it.

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Speaker 4: So a lot of that was untrue.

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Speaker 5: I'll just say the part about Donald Trump in particular,

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Speaker 5: because in my own conversations with Republican sources, they say,

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Speaker 5: we would have totally opposed that bipartisan border deal no

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Speaker 5: matter what Donald Trump. If Donald Trump had supported it,

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Speaker 5: we would have opposed it because our constituents would have

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Speaker 5: been so opposed to it. The argument is that it

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Speaker 5: allowed a lot of exemptions, and actually, in this case,

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Speaker 5: Biden's executive order also allows for a lot of exemptions,

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Speaker 5: and you know they're reasonably debatable exemptions. So unaccompanied minors

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Speaker 5: will be exempt from these caps. So you have to

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Speaker 5: stay low and average a daily average of fifteen hundred

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Speaker 5: for seven days in a row in order for the

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Speaker 5: for these caps.

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Speaker 4: To go away.

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Speaker 3: Fifteen like unpack this for people Okay.

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Speaker 5: So it's interesting because a lot of what happens now

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Speaker 5: is not the sort of stereotypical border crossing that a

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Speaker 5: lot of people probably think about.

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Speaker 3: There are still peopeople running across the river and right.

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Speaker 4: And that the wall that does still happen.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, it still still happens, But a lot of people

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Speaker 5: will cross the river with cartel escorts and then just

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Speaker 5: turn themselves in instead of trying to hide from border patrol,

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Speaker 5: go through the desert and totally unnoticed all of that,

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Speaker 5: they'll simply turn themselves in claim asylum. And that's why

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Speaker 5: some of this is interesting in and of itself because

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Speaker 5: the asylum process. You know, a lot of the reporting

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Speaker 5: here is that it's just going to be asylum is

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Speaker 5: simply going to be cut off with this Biden policy.

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Speaker 5: But I don't know that that's necessarily true because it's

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Speaker 5: not affecting what's called CBP one, which is the app

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Speaker 5: that Biden launched. It's the New York Times as they're

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Speaker 5: booking fourteen or almost fifteen hundred appointments daily through CBP one,

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Speaker 5: and that's so you can make an asylum claim.

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Speaker 6: That's an orderly entry into like you get an appointment.

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Speaker 6: This is when you're supposed to come to the border,

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Speaker 6: show your app and then you get and then you

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Speaker 6: move through the process.

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Speaker 5: Right, And the government provides mostly in the numbers for

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Speaker 5: encounters at the border, which are so hard to know

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Speaker 5: what that means. They actually provide do a really poor

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Speaker 5: job providing numbers on asylum and so some of the

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Speaker 5: reporting again has suggested that bends already reduced the number

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Speaker 5: of daily encounters at the border, and that's true. But

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Speaker 5: it's true because a lot of times those encounters are

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Speaker 5: just the people who are crossing actually illegally, like swimming

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Speaker 5: across the river. Border patrol apprehends them as opposed to

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Speaker 5: people who are turning themselves in for asylum. We don't

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Speaker 5: really know what the breakdown is of what's happening at

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Speaker 5: the border.

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Speaker 4: We just know that a lot of people are showing

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Speaker 4: up and.

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Speaker 3: There's also the Mexican roll right like over the last

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Speaker 3: three months.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, for whatever reason, we don't know what what exact

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Speaker 6: deal was cut or what domestic interest. Samlo had at

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Speaker 6: the time A good point it could be, you know,

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Speaker 6: could have been election or later we'll talk about that later.

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Speaker 6: He helped to cut down the crossings by something like

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Speaker 6: fifty percent by basically holding migrants who are coming through

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Speaker 6: transiting through. These are not Mexicans. We're not seeing a

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Speaker 6: surge of Mexicans across the border. We're going to talk

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Speaker 6: about that later. Yeah, these are people transitting through Mexico.

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Speaker 3: And he was holding a lot of those back.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, exactly. And so I'm reading from the hill

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Speaker 5: right now. Their headline is that he's limiting asylum at

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Speaker 5: the southern border. That might turn out to be accurate. Again, though,

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Speaker 5: what's one of the really interesting things. I looked up

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Speaker 5: the definition and I actually read through the entire executive

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Speaker 5: order and it relies on this definition in the US

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Speaker 5: Code of Trafficking to exempt unaccompanied miners and people who

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Speaker 5: have been trafficked from the limits. And you know, there

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Speaker 5: are a lot of unaccompanied miners that come. And what

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Speaker 5: the government has found is that when you exempt unaccompanied miners,

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Speaker 5: that's when you end up even with more trafficking, and

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Speaker 5: more clever trafficking, where cartels are finding ways to have

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Speaker 5: people who are desperate for their children to get more

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Speaker 5: opportunity to flee gang violence. I mean serious real asylum cases.

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Speaker 5: In many instances, it incentivizes this weird trafficking system, horrible

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Speaker 5: trafficking system where people will send their unaccompanied minors with

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Speaker 5: cartel escorts posing as their fathers or their uncles or

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Speaker 5: whatever it is, and it creates just a really crazy situation.

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Speaker 5: The exemption on trafficking, I want to read the definition

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Speaker 5: here pulled up because it's pretty interesting. This is the

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Speaker 5: definition it relies on. I haven't seen this report at

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Speaker 5: a lot of places. The severe forms of trafficking in

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Speaker 5: persons sex trafficking in which a commercial sex act is

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Speaker 5: induced by force, fraud, or coercion, or in which the

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Speaker 5: person is induced to perform such act has not attained

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Speaker 5: eighteen years of age, or the recruitment, harboring, transportation, provision,

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Speaker 5: or obtaining of a person for labor services through the

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Speaker 5: use of force, fraud, or coercion for the purpose of

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Speaker 5: subjection to involuntary service, to debt, bondage, or slavery peonage

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Speaker 5: as well. So if you want to be exempt from

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Speaker 5: this cap, you probably will have a really good case

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Speaker 5: that you qualify for a trafficking exemption under that definition,

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Speaker 5: because every single person who crosses the border and claims

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Speaker 5: asylum has been trafficked.

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Speaker 4: You can talk to people they pay the cartels.

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Speaker 5: It's maybe, I mean maybe ninety percent is the number.

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Speaker 5: There are some people who you know paid to get

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Speaker 5: up to the border, but like you said, they're coming

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Speaker 5: from Argentina and Brazil.

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Speaker 3: Or if you don't pay, they break your legs, right.

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Speaker 4: They will. I talked to a family.

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Speaker 5: I looked at this little girl who had been held

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Speaker 5: in captivity in a house in Renosa for ten days

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Speaker 5: without much food or water. Dark safe house, basically safe

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Speaker 5: house because they didn't realize they hadn't paid the cartel

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Speaker 5: fee for that region. Hunter and family is just people

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Speaker 5: would be shocked if they heard the story.

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Speaker 6: Right, So it's not necessarily that you need their assistance

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Speaker 6: to get there. It's that if you try to do

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Speaker 6: without their assistance, they're gonna make you pay. It's interesting

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Speaker 6: because our understanding of trafficked is that you've basically our

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Speaker 6: Hollywood version is a kidnapped exactly. Yeah, And this turns

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Speaker 6: it on his head a little bit because you've actually paid.

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Speaker 6: Sometimes paid you've paid out of extortion at the border.

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Speaker 6: Other times you've paid out of desperation back at home.

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Speaker 6: And the other twisted incentive that that you alluded to

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Speaker 6: is the unaccompanied Minors exemption, which means you see an

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Speaker 6: enormous number of sixteen and seventeen year olds coming to

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Speaker 6: the border because if you're sixteen or seventeen, you live

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Speaker 6: in Honduras, it's now the moment of truth for you,

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Speaker 6: like I need to go now or never, and you

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Speaker 6: might have family in the United States, and if you

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Speaker 6: go before your eighteenth birthday, then you're able to get

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Speaker 6: this exemption. That that was the truth before, it was

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Speaker 6: the truth after. We'll see if Trump does any thing

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Speaker 6: about that. It's very difficult because what do you do

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Speaker 6: with a child who comes the border without without any accompaniment,

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Speaker 6: just kick him back in the desert, Like it's an

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Speaker 6: extraordinarily difficult policy and ethical question. Well, I don't think

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Speaker 6: it's that difficult. I think we should be much more

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Speaker 6: welcoming the immigrants.

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Speaker 3: But if you're trying to here, no borders guy, right, But.

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Speaker 6: If you're trying to stop people from coming, then it

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Speaker 6: becomes a difficult one.

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Speaker 3: You want to move to the democratic.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, And I was going to say, that's what's interesting

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Speaker 5: is because the Biden administration is not in favor openly

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Speaker 5: of open borders, it's not like Joe Biden is out

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Speaker 5: there making the libertarian and you're sort of progressive argument

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Speaker 5: for open borders. He's making this argument as he attempts

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Speaker 5: to look really hawkish, and this is something he could

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Speaker 5: have done at any time, of course, and he's doing

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Speaker 5: it an election year. Three point nine million crossings. That's

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Speaker 5: a conservative estimate I run in the New York Post today.

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Speaker 5: I think that is it's conservative, but I think that's

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Speaker 5: probably accurate over the course of the Biden administration. If

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Speaker 5: you cap this at twenty five hundred, you're still up

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Speaker 5: about one and a half million a year.

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Speaker 4: That's Ja Johnson.

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Speaker 5: Jay Johnson in the Obama administration said that a thousand

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Speaker 5: encounters a day was a quote christ So capping it there,

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Speaker 5: I mean, we're we're on a different scale than people realize.

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Speaker 5: And I guess that's where the Biden administration, heading into

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Speaker 5: an election, decides to finally finally do something. We'll see

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Speaker 5: what actually happens now. To the point about making the argument, honestly,

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Speaker 5: here's how Greg Kassar, representative from Texas Reactive front of

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Speaker 5: the show he was on back.

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Speaker 3: In December, I think and talking to immigration.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, talking immigration here's how he reacted to the news

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Speaker 5: on MSNBC.

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Speaker 8: I have real disagreements and concerns with this executive action

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Speaker 8: because I think it plays into the current Republican talking points.

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Speaker 8: You see the Republican Party here in Congress tries to

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Speaker 8: cover up its own failures by scapegoating immigrants. It's the

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Speaker 8: oldest trick in the book, and they continue to advocate

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Speaker 8: for closing legal pathways to migration and pointing at chaos

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Speaker 8: at the border. Unfortunately, it created this political pressure that

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Speaker 8: has the presidents today responding by restricting asylum, which isn't

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Speaker 8: going to work because it doesn't actually reduce the number

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Speaker 8: of people being pushed out of their homes in Latin America,

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Speaker 8: doesn't actually create new legal pathways for people to migrate here,

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Speaker 8: and so I think we need an alternative, progressive vision

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Speaker 8: for what will work on the border.

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Speaker 5: Right, I've seen a lot of pushback, actually more than usual,

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Speaker 5: even I would say from just sort of justice Democrat

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Speaker 5: or Justice Democrat adjacent adjacent type people.

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Speaker 6: Even more like Alex Padilla in the Senate, the entire

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Speaker 6: Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which is which politically is very centrist

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Speaker 6: or moderate, lashed out at this and when he was

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Speaker 6: pressed when Kassar was president, what's your vision here, he said,

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Speaker 6: well, we have to work on what's pushing people out. He said,

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Speaker 6: start by relieving sanctions on Venezuela and Cuba, and our

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Speaker 6: kind of hostile policy towards Central and South Americans, which

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Speaker 6: is making it so that they want to leave, Like

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Speaker 6: people don't actually want to leave. We have a kind

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Speaker 6: of chauvinistic view of the US, and good for us.

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Speaker 6: We were proud of our country. We think it's the

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Speaker 6: greatest place on earth, and so we therefore assume that

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Speaker 6: everyone on earth is just clamoring to come here.

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Speaker 4: Some people really are.

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Speaker 5: I mean, like when I talked to Haitian migrants at

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Speaker 5: the border who were coming from Argentina and Brazil, they

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Speaker 5: were like, you know, I was making a normal amount

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Speaker 5: of money, wasn't in danger? And I said, well, why

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Speaker 5: did you come? Was it the American dream? And they

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Speaker 5: lit up and they were like the American dream, But

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Speaker 5: they weren't in Cuba, right, And.

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Speaker 3: That also wasn't why they left Haiti. Like they left.

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Speaker 6: Those people left Haiti to go work basically, like to

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Speaker 6: help build the Olympic structures and such in Brazil and

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Speaker 6: if Haiti were a place where there could be a

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Speaker 6: Haitian dream. No, most Haitians, I think would prefer the

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Speaker 6: Haitian dream. We did this in like the sixties. We

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Speaker 6: opened up our immigration policy because we thought everybody in

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Speaker 6: Europe would come pouring over here and we're so racist,

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Speaker 6: Like they were like, those are those are the immigrants

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Speaker 6: that we want, the Europeans, and we got like zero

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Speaker 6: basically from Europe.

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Speaker 3: They're like, we're going, m hmm, it's fine. I mean,

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Speaker 3: America seems great, but it's great here too.

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Speaker 4: Is the consensus response?

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Speaker 5: Do you think so far from Democrats who are opposing

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Speaker 5: the Biden policy a root causes kind of argument.

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Speaker 6: Yes, And as Beto you know, talked about in our

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Speaker 6: discussion a couple of weeks ago, there really isn't a

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Speaker 6: consensus kind of border policy yet that Democrats have settled on,

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Speaker 6: and they're really being pulled in this kind of reactionary

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Speaker 6: direction that Biden is leading him in, with others kind

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Speaker 6: of pulling back in the other direction. What all of

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Speaker 6: the research has shown in Europe, as the center left

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Speaker 6: parties became anti immigrant, they lost vote share to the right,

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Speaker 6: Like in every single case so maybe there's something unique

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Speaker 6: about Biden that he's just such a spectacular political genius.

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Speaker 3: That will work.

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Speaker 6: That's him, and it didn't work for anybody else who

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Speaker 6: has ever tried it. So, setting aside the morale, the ethics,

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Speaker 6: whether it works, whatever, just on a pure cynical political basis,

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Speaker 6: what he's trying to do, which is be less Trump.

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Speaker 6: And he even said in his speech, he said, this

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Speaker 6: is going to see it sound similar to, well, you

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Speaker 6: know what Trump did, but we do.

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Speaker 3: It with love.

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Speaker 9: You know.

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Speaker 6: He was basically saying, you know, we're not going to

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Speaker 6: accompany this with the rhetoric that Trump used. He cited

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Speaker 6: Trump's rhetoric that immigrants poison the blood of America. He's like,

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Speaker 6: I would never say that, but I'm going to do

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Speaker 6: the same policy but in a much gentler way, just

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Speaker 6: from a cynical perspective. That politics doesn't work, like there

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Speaker 6: are no there are no Trump voters who were like,

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Speaker 6: oh okay, cool, then that works for me, And there

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Speaker 6: really are, apparently, according to the research, no other voters

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Speaker 6: who were like, oh, well, I wasn't with you, but

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Speaker 6: now I am, because if that was their big issue,

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Speaker 6: they were already with Trump.

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Speaker 5: You know if it's their big issue, but I guess

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Speaker 5: I wonder if there are independent voters around the country,

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Speaker 5: this makes them feel moremfortable with Biden, even if they're

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Speaker 5: not happy with Biden overall, it could factor in to

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Speaker 5: them feeling more comfortable with Biden. Again, though we were

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Speaker 5: less than a day in and there's a lot One

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Speaker 5: of the reasons a lot of people immigration hawks are

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Speaker 5: coming out on this is similar to the border deal

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Speaker 5: that Biden just said was the strongest thing in the

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Speaker 5: world or in recent history.

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Speaker 4: Is how you described it.

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Speaker 5: There's a way to interpret this that could still let

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Speaker 5: I mean, first of all, it lets a lot of

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Speaker 5: people in. If you're saying we're turning away those credible

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Speaker 5: fear interviews. Once we hit twenty five twenty five hundred dollars,

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Speaker 5: twenty five hundred people a day, which amounts to a

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Speaker 5: crazy amount of dollars actually for cartels. When you do that,

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Speaker 5: you're still letting in. I think it's one point five

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Speaker 5: million people a year, which is a huge number compared

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Speaker 5: to it. I mean that was around it's been about

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Speaker 5: two million a year. It was around two hundred thousand

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Speaker 5: during the Trump years. And people probably remember we still

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Speaker 5: were talking about migration as a crisis at the southern

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Speaker 5: border at that point in time. So it's just we

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Speaker 5: don't know exactly how this is going to work yet,

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Speaker 5: and either way it's still to the If Kasar were here,

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Speaker 5: I think we would have a conversation probably similar to

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Speaker 5: what we had with Beto Arouric, which I recommend people

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Speaker 5: listen to, I think for a good sort of debate, push.

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Speaker 4: A pull on what's right.

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Speaker 5: I have a hard time with Democrats who aren't openly

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Speaker 5: saying we should be letting in, you know, at least

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Speaker 5: one point five million a year, if not more. If

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Speaker 5: that's your position, you should own it like you do Ryan,

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Speaker 5: because it's perfectly it's perfectly defensible and reasonable.

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Speaker 4: It's not one that I agree with.

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Speaker 5: But if you're saying, you know, we want the border

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Speaker 5: to be safe and orderly, and yet you're still allowing

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Speaker 5: for these exemptions and all of these entries a year,

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Speaker 5: basically you're not doing and not doing anything about the

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Speaker 5: root cause. In the meanwhile, you know, I know they've

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Speaker 5: made some overtures to you know, spending more on humanitarian

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Speaker 5: aid in these countries and stationing more people to you know,

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Speaker 5: tell them about CBPP one throughout South and Central America.

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Speaker 4: I don't know.

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Speaker 5: I mean it seems like it's sort of a half

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Speaker 5: measure that could know, really not end up changing much.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean that's how most of our policy has done,

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Speaker 6: especially if you if you can't do anything through Congress.

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Speaker 6: But yeah, we have a labor shortage, like people seem

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Speaker 6: to hate it, like politically when you say it, but

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Speaker 6: it's like the country that can attract young immigrants who

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Speaker 6: then can be productive like people. People tend to think

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Speaker 6: of immigrants as these these like drains on society parasise

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Speaker 6: when it when in fact, immigrants on net are adding

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Speaker 6: productivity to the economy, like just across the board, from

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Speaker 6: everything from the high level engineering, medical professional professionals to

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Speaker 6: the to the low level to construction and everything else

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Speaker 6: in between. Plus, if you can keep the American education system,

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Speaker 6: the university system, you know, rocking like it has been,

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Speaker 6: which we're not, you know, we're watching it collapse in

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Speaker 6: front of our eyes, but it has been the envy

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Speaker 6: of the world in the post World War two era.

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Speaker 6: You combine those things, you're going to continue to be

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Speaker 6: the country that is dominant on the world stage. If

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Speaker 6: you're an aging country that is keeping people out and

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Speaker 6: that can't keep up, then who's going to do the

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Speaker 6: work of productivity that you need.

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Speaker 5: It's absolutely true by the way that we are an

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Speaker 5: aging country.

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Speaker 6: Birth rates are declining, We're getting older, like that's just

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Speaker 6: a fact. And so you can either have a lot

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Speaker 6: more babies, or you can allow immigrants, or a combination

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Speaker 6: of the two.

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Speaker 3: And immigration is really.

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Speaker 6: The part of that equation that is first well, obviously easier,

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Speaker 6: it's pretty complicated, time consuming. Raise somebody to eighteen years

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Speaker 6: old if that's your policy. So anyway, we'll see, Yeah,

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Speaker 6: we'll see.

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Speaker 5: I mean, I'm not one of those people that's like,

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Speaker 5: you know, we have to stop immigration, all immigration. I

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Speaker 5: actually think, you know, a much more clear system would

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Speaker 5: allow for actual, orderly, sensible, logical system that helps us

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Speaker 5: be competitive and does increase productivity without hurting American workers.

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Speaker 4: There's a way to do it.

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Speaker 5: But to your point, it's not how our policy is

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Speaker 5: done in these days whatsoever. Speaking of divides between Democrats

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Speaker 5: and the Biden administration, let's move to this Israel block

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Speaker 5: because if you see, we can put this up on

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Speaker 5: the screen, this is b one. If you take a

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Speaker 5: look at how Democrats are responding to Biden's comment. In

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Speaker 5: this big Time magazine interview, he was asked by the interviewer,

438
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 5: do you believe that na who's prolonging the war for

439
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 5: his own political self preservation? Biden said, I'm not going

440
00:21:43,760 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 5: to comment on that.

441
00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:45,639
Speaker 4: Then he goes and.

442
00:21:45,640 --> 00:21:47,920
Speaker 5: Comments on it and says there's every reason for people

443
00:21:47,960 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 5: to draw that conclusion. And he goes on also to say,

444
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 5: I would cite that before the war began, the blowback

445
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,879
Speaker 5: he was getting from the Israeli military for wanting to

446
00:21:56,920 --> 00:21:59,199
Speaker 5: changed the constitution, changed the court. And so it's an

447
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,480
Speaker 5: internal domestic that seems to have no consequence. And whether

448
00:22:01,560 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 5: but change his position or not, it's hard to say,

449
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 5: but it has not been helpful, sort of saying the

450
00:22:07,440 --> 00:22:11,120
Speaker 5: quiet part allowed kind of in the Time magazine interview

451
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:14,400
Speaker 5: and then going into b two.

452
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:16,000
Speaker 4: We can put this up on the screen.

453
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,720
Speaker 5: Netan Yahoo was he was invited to address a joint

454
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:22,920
Speaker 5: session of Congress. There is no date for it. I

455
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 5: think this happened actually back back in March, but more

456
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:31,399
Speaker 5: congressional progressives, this cites Jaya Paul even you know, you

457
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:34,359
Speaker 5: have people like Stenny Hoyer saying I'm not sure this

458
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:38,640
Speaker 5: is helpful for Yahu. They're actual like Apac people who

459
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 5: are now trying to.

460
00:22:39,920 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 3: Distance themselves the trip every other year.

461
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:45,400
Speaker 4: So it is real, Ryan, this is your bread and butter.

462
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:46,040
Speaker 4: Break down.

463
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,280
Speaker 5: What's happening with the divide, the growing divide here between

464
00:22:49,280 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 5: Biden who's trying to kind of have it both ways

465
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,720
Speaker 5: with Yahoo and his coalition here at home.

466
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 6: Right, So Biden, by saying it has not been helpful

467
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:02,199
Speaker 6: when he's talking about Yahoo sense of self preservation, is

468
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:06,000
Speaker 6: referring to a piece that doesn't get discussed enough. I

469
00:23:06,040 --> 00:23:09,840
Speaker 6: think in American media that factors into the war, which

470
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:10,040
Speaker 6: is that.

471
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:12,919
Speaker 3: Nenya who is facing.

472
00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:17,439
Speaker 6: Corruption charges, and if he leaves power, it's not just

473
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:20,919
Speaker 6: that he goes to become a fellow at the Harvard

474
00:23:21,000 --> 00:23:24,560
Speaker 6: Kennedy Center. He could actually go to prison for these

475
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:30,239
Speaker 6: corruption charges. He is extraordinarily unpopular for his for his

476
00:23:30,440 --> 00:23:34,080
Speaker 6: moving a whole bunch of troops up to the West

477
00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:38,120
Speaker 6: Bank to defend these kind of rampaging settlers before October seventh,

478
00:23:38,560 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 6: and by sapping the country's energy for like six months

479
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:45,479
Speaker 6: leading up to October seventh, by trying this takeover of

480
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:48,800
Speaker 6: the courts, which was not unrelated to the corruption charges,

481
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 6: so that already people are already furious at him about

482
00:23:53,680 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 6: that and believe that those two things factored into Israel

483
00:23:58,440 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 6: kind of being weakened the moment of October seventh, which

484
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,560
Speaker 6: allow this this attack to be to go from an

485
00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 6: attack on a couple of century positions outside of gods

486
00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 6: and grab some uh, grab some military hostages to.

487
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:14,560
Speaker 3: An absolute horrific massacre over the course of the day.

488
00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:20,040
Speaker 6: And so the thing that's keeping him, you know, out

489
00:24:20,080 --> 00:24:23,640
Speaker 6: of jail and in power is the fact that he's

490
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 6: still prime minister.

491
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:27,600
Speaker 3: And the thing that's keeping him prime minister is the war.

492
00:24:28,160 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 6: So that's that's exactly what Biden is referring to, that

493
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:35,560
Speaker 6: his sense of self preservation. So we talk about how

494
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,840
Speaker 6: Hamas is being asked to sign on a dotted line

495
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:43,120
Speaker 6: and under with Israel saying, by this agreement, you will

496
00:24:43,160 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 6: all die. Like their condition is that Hamas must must

497
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:49,960
Speaker 6: dissolve and go away. Uh, And Hamas is I'm not

498
00:24:50,280 --> 00:24:53,080
Speaker 6: so sure about this. On the flip side that's asked,

499
00:24:53,160 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 6: that's also in some ways what the public and the

500
00:24:56,119 --> 00:24:59,159
Speaker 6: US is asking that Yahoo to do, Like once this

501
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 6: war ends, you're in trouble, Like I wish we could

502
00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 6: come up with some like asylum, Like look, you know what,

503
00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 6: I would love it if Yahu would face justice, But

504
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 6: I'd rather that the war end and that the tens

505
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,920
Speaker 6: of thousands of people, the hundreds of thousand people's facing

506
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 6: famine could get relief, and that we can begin reconstruction

507
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:21,880
Speaker 6: and this. And if that means he gets a retirement

508
00:25:21,880 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 6: without prison or with some corruption charges, then find there's

509
00:25:24,840 --> 00:25:28,800
Speaker 6: the Panama just I mean, Florida, Come on, sure you

510
00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,919
Speaker 6: can give him asylum here in the United States.

511
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: And so that's what Biden's referring to there.

512
00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:39,280
Speaker 6: Meanwhile, there's an invitation extended to him to come here

513
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,440
Speaker 6: and address a joint session of Congress, and you had

514
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 6: when he came in twenty fifteen, it was this massive

515
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:49,600
Speaker 6: thumb in the nose of Obama, who very much did

516
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 6: not want him to come. Painter invited him anyway, and

517
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:56,200
Speaker 6: he came to demand that the Iran nuclear deal, you.

518
00:25:56,119 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 3: Know, not get put together.

519
00:25:59,040 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 6: The audacity a foreign leader coming to our capital and

520
00:26:05,320 --> 00:26:08,800
Speaker 6: telling our lawmakers not to do a deal with a

521
00:26:08,840 --> 00:26:11,720
Speaker 6: different foreign country, it's.

522
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 3: Just kind of incredible.

523
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 6: You cannot imagine any other foreign leader who would come

524
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 6: to the United States and tell us how to strike

525
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 6: a treaty with some other country.

526
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,840
Speaker 5: While we are sending tons of money and weapons, and

527
00:26:24,200 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 5: at the invitation by the way of our leaders of

528
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 5: John Bayner at the time. And also it looks like

529
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,240
Speaker 5: one of the big reasons that this invitation was originally

530
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 5: extended to the Tanyahoo was as a kind of olive branch,

531
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 5: right Ryan. At the time, this was back and I

532
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 5: think this was a march ish it was earlier in

533
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:45,040
Speaker 5: the spring. It was sort of seen as a negotiating chip, like,

534
00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:47,399
Speaker 5: we may be attacking you publicly here, we may be

535
00:26:47,440 --> 00:26:50,119
Speaker 5: disagreeing with you publicly here, but come on over address

536
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 5: a joint session of Congress, because we're your greatest ally.

537
00:26:53,680 --> 00:26:55,160
Speaker 4: It was kind of an interesting move.

538
00:26:55,200 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 5: And now it seems like, while there's no date, this

539
00:26:58,320 --> 00:27:01,159
Speaker 5: looming over Congress is really allowing for some of the

540
00:27:01,160 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 5: big divides between progressive justice Democrat adjacent people and the

541
00:27:05,840 --> 00:27:09,959
Speaker 5: Biden administration too. I don't know, I mean to become

542
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:12,880
Speaker 5: more pointed, more acute than I've seen over the course

543
00:27:12,920 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 5: of the Biden administration. I actually think it's influenced the

544
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,840
Speaker 5: boldness and speaking out against the Biden border policy.

545
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,840
Speaker 4: We talked about earlier that it's just there's a snowball.

546
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 5: Kind of rolling down the hill with people getting comfortable

547
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,880
Speaker 5: now openly criticizing Biden. Biden in a way that reminds

548
00:27:26,880 --> 00:27:30,320
Speaker 5: me of how the Freedom Caucus typically treats you people

549
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:34,200
Speaker 5: like Mike Johnson, although there's a lot of agreement even

550
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 5: in like the Democratic establishment that maybe the whole net

551
00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 5: Yaho joined address isn't a good thing, even for Netnahu himself.

552
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:43,919
Speaker 6: And all of this is happening while the question is

553
00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 6: being called both to Israel and to Hamas, with Biden

554
00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,439
Speaker 6: has elevated this offer that Israel made. Israel has now

555
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 6: said that it's ratified of something very close to it

556
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:59,239
Speaker 6: that's gone through the Katari Foreign Minister to Hamas. There

557
00:27:59,280 --> 00:28:04,040
Speaker 6: are multiple in multiple courts and politics within each of

558
00:28:04,080 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 6: those different coalitions. Like you know, Hamas is a coalition,

559
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 6: just like the Israeli government is a coalition. It's not

560
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 6: as if any of them are a monolith. And so

561
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 6: to help us walk through this, child Ben A. Frame,

562
00:28:17,800 --> 00:28:21,359
Speaker 6: who is the host of the podcast Israel, explained uh

563
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,359
Speaker 6: is going to join us in a moment to unpack

564
00:28:24,400 --> 00:28:27,520
Speaker 6: where he thinks this is heading for net Yahoo and

565
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 6: for the potential beginning of the end of the war.

566
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:34,920
Speaker 3: Joining us now is Child Ben a Frame.

567
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,120
Speaker 6: He's the host of the podcast Israel Explained and also

568
00:28:38,520 --> 00:28:40,640
Speaker 6: a history of the land of Israel. Child, Thanks for

569
00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:47,480
Speaker 6: joining us. So can you walk us through your assessment

570
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,240
Speaker 6: of what where net Yahoo is now when it comes

571
00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:55,280
Speaker 6: to this this offer that has been made and has

572
00:28:55,080 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 6: has this actual offer been made? Let's actually before you answer,

573
00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:00,360
Speaker 6: let's put this first. Let's put this element up. This

574
00:29:00,440 --> 00:29:04,120
Speaker 6: is this is b three. This is Barack Revide reporting

575
00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:08,400
Speaker 6: that the Katari Foreign Minister is basically saying that they've

576
00:29:08,440 --> 00:29:11,840
Speaker 6: received an Israeli proposal for a hostage deal quote that

577
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:16,120
Speaker 6: reflects the principles laid out in President Biden's speech, and

578
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 6: they delivered it to Hamas, and so unpack that for us,

579
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 6: like what is cutter saying here?

580
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 3: What have what has Israel given them? And what have

581
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 3: it sent to Hamas?

582
00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:34,000
Speaker 10: So on May twenty ninth, the Israeli War Cabinet voted

583
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:39,520
Speaker 10: on an offer to give to Hamas. That offer was

584
00:29:39,600 --> 00:29:44,959
Speaker 10: made at a very low moment for Israel, when a

585
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:50,400
Speaker 10: video of several female soldiers that had been taken by

586
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:55,240
Speaker 10: by Hamas who worked as observers had been revealed to

587
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 10: the public, and there was a lot of pressure to

588
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 10: get a deal right now. Nataniell was somewhat hesitant to

589
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 10: make that offer, but he did, and because he was

590
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:10,800
Speaker 10: very hesitant to make that offer, he's been backtracking ever since.

591
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 11: Now.

592
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 10: That offer is very similar to the one that Biden

593
00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:24,400
Speaker 10: referenced in his speech. Biden made no changes from the

594
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 10: offer that Israel made, despite some claims to the contrary.

595
00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 10: There were some things that he omitted for sure, especially

596
00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,280
Speaker 10: the number of prisoners things like that, but a lot

597
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 10: of that is confidential and under Israeli military censorship to

598
00:30:43,240 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 10: begin with. Nathaniel also made that offer when as the

599
00:30:48,520 --> 00:30:51,080
Speaker 10: only holed out in the cabinet, he was the only

600
00:30:51,120 --> 00:30:53,479
Speaker 10: one who wanted to vote against that offer, and then

601
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:56,280
Speaker 10: he eventually did because he lost his closest ally in

602
00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,640
Speaker 10: the cabinet, Ron Dermer.

603
00:31:00,520 --> 00:31:03,200
Speaker 9: So it's a three stage offer.

604
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 10: In the first stage, there'll be in exchange of humanitarian

605
00:31:07,600 --> 00:31:15,960
Speaker 10: hostages in exchange for a release of prisoners and Israel

606
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 10: stopping the war for forty six days.

607
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 9: Then there'll be negotiation over a second phase.

608
00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 10: In the second phase, there's supposed to be complete cessation

609
00:31:27,040 --> 00:31:33,360
Speaker 10: of the conflict permanently, a return of soldiers, and in

610
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:37,280
Speaker 10: the third phase there is going to be a rebuilding

611
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 10: of Gaza that will take place over three to five years.

612
00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 10: So that's the full.

613
00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 6: So Netna Who's initial response when Biden came out with

614
00:31:48,320 --> 00:31:50,840
Speaker 6: that proposal was to say, well, you know, this is

615
00:31:50,840 --> 00:31:53,560
Speaker 6: a non starter. This isn't really what I meant because

616
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:55,920
Speaker 6: it doesn't allow us to continue the war. Then there

617
00:31:55,920 --> 00:32:00,040
Speaker 6: were leaks from his own office saying no, actually, this

618
00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 6: was our offer. So how did we get from a

619
00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:05,239
Speaker 6: how do we get from that place where he was

620
00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 6: reluctantly for it, then he was against it, and now

621
00:32:08,200 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 6: he's transmitting something that is the same in principle through cutter,

622
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 6: And what does it mean in principle?

623
00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 3: Is it the same deal?

624
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:17,280
Speaker 9: Yeah?

625
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,160
Speaker 10: Yeah, So the trouble with what we're doing here is

626
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 10: as as more rational people, is that we're trying to

627
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:29,720
Speaker 10: find continuity in Nathaniel's policy on a on a foreign

628
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:33,160
Speaker 10: policy level, in terms of the national interest, in terms of.

629
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:33,800
Speaker 9: Getting a deal.

630
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 10: Uh, that's a mistake because Nathaniel is only working on

631
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 10: the level of trying to maintain his coalition, and right

632
00:32:42,480 --> 00:32:46,440
Speaker 10: now his coalition is ailing on both sides. He's got

633
00:32:46,640 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 10: Ben Vereen smolt Rich on the right and they're saying

634
00:32:50,000 --> 00:32:52,280
Speaker 10: that they're going to bolt if there.

635
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 9: Is an advance on this deal. Then you have.

636
00:32:57,520 --> 00:33:01,040
Speaker 10: Gance on the left say that he's going to bolt

637
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,239
Speaker 10: if there isn't advance on a deal or any kind

638
00:33:03,240 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 10: of strategic vision towards the war, and you have immense

639
00:33:06,880 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 10: international pressure from Biden, the lights of which if you ignore,

640
00:33:12,880 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 10: there will be repercussions.

641
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,600
Speaker 9: So what Nathaniel was trying to do is he's trying

642
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 9: to avoid.

643
00:33:18,160 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 10: All these pitfalls by maneuvering left when he goes too

644
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 10: far right, and maneuvering right when he goes too far left,

645
00:33:26,400 --> 00:33:30,600
Speaker 10: to try to maintain his coalition, to try to beat

646
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:37,040
Speaker 10: the worst ramifications of having an open spat with with Biden,

647
00:33:37,640 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 10: and to try to keep guns in the coalition for

648
00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 10: as long as possible. So as far as the actual

649
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,720
Speaker 10: offer is concerned, nothing has changed, because that offer is

650
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:47,840
Speaker 10: one that is Reel's made.

651
00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 9: So the offer is locked in.

652
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:52,160
Speaker 10: The US has already revealed it, and the reason they

653
00:33:52,200 --> 00:33:54,520
Speaker 10: revealed it was because they knew that it Daniel might

654
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:57,480
Speaker 10: back away from it and to put pressure on Hamas

655
00:33:57,560 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 10: to agree to it.

656
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 9: Too, because Hamas was probably going to say no without all.

657
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,360
Speaker 10: This, so that the offer is the same offer, but

658
00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 10: the spin is going to constantly change according to Nataniao's

659
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:11,799
Speaker 10: political needs, and a lot of the things that he's

660
00:34:11,800 --> 00:34:14,080
Speaker 10: saying are in there are not the most obvious ones.

661
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 10: He's saying that the offer includes the Israeli right to

662
00:34:18,760 --> 00:34:21,120
Speaker 10: destroy Hamas. But you're never going to give an offer

663
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,840
Speaker 10: to someone with saying I'm going to destroy you.

664
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 9: That is nonsensical.

665
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 10: But he's saying that for political reasons, and if we

666
00:34:28,840 --> 00:34:30,600
Speaker 10: understand that, then we understand.

667
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 9: What he's doing. But the offer is the same offer,

668
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:32,480
Speaker 9: and so.

669
00:34:32,520 --> 00:34:34,759
Speaker 5: Let's talk about actually how Biden is navigating some of

670
00:34:34,800 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 5: those challenges here. Matthew Miller was asked about this by

671
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:42,399
Speaker 5: a Nile Stange. I forget how to pronounce this last name. Sorry, Nile,

672
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 5: but let's play this next clip and get you to

673
00:34:45,760 --> 00:34:46,239
Speaker 5: react to it.

674
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 4: Chill.

675
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 1: You mentioned the present remarks, which included the idea that

676
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 1: as long as a mask lives up to its commitment,

677
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 1: there could be and I quote, the cessation of hostilities permanently.

678
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,800
Speaker 1: And you say that is an Issueli proposal. The government

679
00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 1: of the State of israel Is signed up to a

680
00:35:04,600 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 1: proposal that there could be a permanent and true hostilities

681
00:35:08,600 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 1: and a mass still in existence in a meaningful way.

682
00:35:11,480 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 12: No, they are signed up to an agreement that leads

683
00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:20,919
Speaker 12: to a permanent cessation of hostilities, but with a number

684
00:35:20,920 --> 00:35:22,719
Speaker 12: of provisions that have to be negotiated to get there

685
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 12: at the.

686
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:23,399
Speaker 3: End of the faith.

687
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:24,400
Speaker 11: But it's a provision.

688
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:26,960
Speaker 12: But I'm not going to negotiate all those provisions in public.

689
00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:29,680
Speaker 12: I've talked about this a good deal yesterday, about the

690
00:35:29,680 --> 00:35:32,239
Speaker 12: fact that one of the principles the Secretary outlined in

691
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,919
Speaker 12: Tokyo and November is that there cannot be continued rule

692
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:39,439
Speaker 12: of Hamas in Gaza after October seventh. I'm sorry, after

693
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:41,480
Speaker 12: the end of this conflict, and that's what we're committed to.

694
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 1: No, but I understand that. But if the provisions required

695
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:49,120
Speaker 1: would be the dissolution of Hamas, why would a mass

696
00:35:49,160 --> 00:35:50,920
Speaker 1: sign up to get that ball willing.

697
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,520
Speaker 12: Because they don't want to see continued conflict, continued Palestinian

698
00:35:54,560 --> 00:35:57,120
Speaker 12: people dying. They don't want to see war in Gaza.

699
00:35:57,160 --> 00:36:00,120
Speaker 12: They want to see reconstruction of Gaza. Now, look, I

700
00:36:00,160 --> 00:36:02,919
Speaker 12: will say I will grant you one thing I said

701
00:36:02,920 --> 00:36:05,400
Speaker 12: this to matt yesterday. It may be that Sinoar decides

702
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 12: that he's safe in the tunnel and his interests have

703
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,160
Speaker 12: diverged from the people of Gaza, and so he's not

704
00:36:10,239 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 12: willing to agree to a ceasefire, and he's not willing

705
00:36:12,440 --> 00:36:14,080
Speaker 12: he's not willing to look at this proposal and say

706
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 12: it requires good faith negotiations to get from phase one

707
00:36:16,600 --> 00:36:18,560
Speaker 12: to phase two. So I'm not going to accept it

708
00:36:18,600 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 12: because I'm safe and I don't have any interest in

709
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,399
Speaker 12: the Palestine people who continue to suffer the ravages of war.

710
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 12: But I will say, if you look at the deal

711
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 12: that's on the table, it is manifestly in the interests

712
00:36:28,640 --> 00:36:31,239
Speaker 12: of the Palestinian people, is manifestly in the interests of

713
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 12: the Israeli people, is manifestly in the interests of the world.

714
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 9: And so that's why we'll continue to push for it.

715
00:36:35,440 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 12: And if Hamas really does represent the interests of the

716
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,360
Speaker 12: Palestine people, as they say over and over, it's without

717
00:36:42,360 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 12: a doubt that they'll take this deal.

718
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 5: So Nile pushing Matthew Miller on some of the same

719
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:48,840
Speaker 5: questions that you guys were just talking about. Ryan and

720
00:36:48,920 --> 00:36:51,160
Speaker 5: Schielle Hill, give us a little bit of reaction to

721
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 5: that exchange. Not an easy question to answer for the

722
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 5: Biden administration.

723
00:36:56,800 --> 00:37:00,480
Speaker 10: Yeah, so, you know, I hate to COVID but like this,

724
00:37:00,520 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 10: But everything he's saying is completely erroneous and he knows it.

725
00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:06,400
Speaker 9: And it's not even a question.

726
00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 10: What Miller is saying is that Hamas would accept an

727
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:18,279
Speaker 10: offer calling to remove them from power. Because I'm paraphrasing here,

728
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:22,279
Speaker 10: he cares about the Palestinian people. Sinwa cares about the

729
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,920
Speaker 10: Palestinian Sinwa does not care about the Palestinian people. Sinwar

730
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 10: uses the Palestinian people as a tool in order to

731
00:37:29,760 --> 00:37:34,800
Speaker 10: hurt Israel and increase the power of his organization. That's

732
00:37:34,880 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 10: what he does. There's no other way to understand this war.

733
00:37:37,520 --> 00:37:40,719
Speaker 10: If he cared about the Palestinian people, then he would

734
00:37:40,719 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 10: have reached a ceasefire long ago.

735
00:37:42,160 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 9: The Palestinian people are suffering terribly.

736
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 10: And neither leader here particularly cares about their people, and

737
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:52,000
Speaker 10: they certainly don't care about the people on the other side.

738
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 10: And what that clip reveals is how ridiculous it is

739
00:37:56,040 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 10: to pretend that this deal that Israel has offered is

740
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 10: going to allow for the destruction of Hamas. Hamas are

741
00:38:04,719 --> 00:38:08,479
Speaker 10: not idiots, they have said they're not accepting this deal

742
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,120
Speaker 10: unless Israel states clearly that it will end the war,

743
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:14,640
Speaker 10: which they have said in that offer, and there's no

744
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:16,720
Speaker 10: question that Israel had did say that in that offer,

745
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 10: and that the United States will guarantee an end to

746
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,359
Speaker 10: the war. And if they don't get that, they're not

747
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:25,200
Speaker 10: going to sign an agreement. There's no reason for them

748
00:38:25,680 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 10: to stop their control of Gaza because Israel has failed

749
00:38:31,120 --> 00:38:33,560
Speaker 10: to remove Hamas militarily.

750
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,480
Speaker 9: The only way you can remove an enemy.

751
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 10: Organization like that is by defeating them in the battlefield.

752
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:43,120
Speaker 9: Israel, for various reasons, has not done that. Hamas knows

753
00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 9: they haven't done that.

754
00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,600
Speaker 10: And more than that, Sinwar is very hesitant to take

755
00:38:46,640 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 10: this deal to begin with. The only reason he's thinking

756
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:51,520
Speaker 10: about doing it is because of pressure from Qatar and

757
00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 10: from Egypt. He knows that the longer this war goes on,

758
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:59,000
Speaker 10: the more of a price he exacts from Israel on

759
00:38:59,040 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 10: the international state age between the ICC and the ICJ

760
00:39:05,120 --> 00:39:08,719
Speaker 10: and the Biden administration and the EU and the UK

761
00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,719
Speaker 10: not sending arms and so on and so forth.

762
00:39:11,840 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 9: And that's just the beginning.

763
00:39:13,239 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 10: In two months, things will be worse, and sin of

764
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 10: war showed in October seventh that his goal is not

765
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:21,520
Speaker 10: to help the Palestinian people. His goal is to hurt

766
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 10: Israel as much as possible, as it says in the

767
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 10: Hamas Charter, and also increase their political power. October seventh

768
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 10: has done that. They're more popular now than ever. And

769
00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 10: with the amount of pain he's inflicting on Israel, we're

770
00:39:34,080 --> 00:39:38,279
Speaker 10: talking about damage that no other actor has ever done

771
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:39,880
Speaker 10: to Israel in it's entire history.

772
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 9: And he knows that.

773
00:39:41,480 --> 00:39:46,520
Speaker 6: And to unpack this Matt Miller's kind of contradiction that

774
00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:48,920
Speaker 6: he has here, it reminds me a little bit of

775
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:52,279
Speaker 6: the US and the Taliban. And you said, you know,

776
00:39:52,320 --> 00:39:55,120
Speaker 6: the only way to defeat an enemy like that is militarily,

777
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:57,720
Speaker 6: And even in the case of the Taliban, we actually,

778
00:39:57,800 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 6: the United States did actually completely to defeat the Taliban,

779
00:40:01,880 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 6: and yet, because of the nature of counter terrorism in

780
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:08,240
Speaker 6: the way that it produces more enemies, the Taliban eventually

781
00:40:08,280 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 6: came back. And we spent like about a decade here

782
00:40:10,880 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 6: in the United States trying to figure out a day

783
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:17,000
Speaker 6: after for Afghanistan, but trying to do so in a

784
00:40:17,000 --> 00:40:22,000
Speaker 6: way that did not account for the Taliban, and finally

785
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:25,919
Speaker 6: eventually reality just intervening. We're like, you know what, actually, okay,

786
00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 6: Actually it's going to be the Taliban. We're just gonna

787
00:40:27,719 --> 00:40:30,040
Speaker 6: be okay with that. And it's been a couple of

788
00:40:30,080 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 6: years in the world and the US just kind of

789
00:40:32,560 --> 00:40:35,560
Speaker 6: moved on. And it feels very similar that like neither

790
00:40:35,640 --> 00:40:40,120
Speaker 6: the neither Israel or the United States want to acknowledge

791
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:43,640
Speaker 6: the potential that Hamas, even if it's some renamed organization,

792
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:47,200
Speaker 6: might still be there after the war is over, and

793
00:40:47,239 --> 00:40:49,360
Speaker 6: so therefore their ability to think of a day after

794
00:40:49,600 --> 00:40:53,479
Speaker 6: is as irrational and kind of incoherent as the US

795
00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:57,600
Speaker 6: as was in Afghanistan. Does that what's going on with

796
00:40:57,640 --> 00:41:01,000
Speaker 6: their with Hamas and the day after here?

797
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:04,040
Speaker 10: Yeah, So I'm going to push back on that a

798
00:41:04,040 --> 00:41:06,880
Speaker 10: little bit because I think what we're seeing here is

799
00:41:06,880 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 10: that the Biden.

800
00:41:07,480 --> 00:41:10,840
Speaker 9: Administration actually had a pretty good plan for what to

801
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 9: do in Gaza.

802
00:41:12,440 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 10: Biden administration said to Nathaniel early on in the war, Listen,

803
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 10: when you finished taking over Gaza, we're going to bring

804
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,200
Speaker 10: in the PA, We're going to reform the PA. We're

805
00:41:23,200 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 10: going to do that with the help of the United

806
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:30,000
Speaker 10: Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the eu et.

807
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:32,560
Speaker 9: Cetera, et cetera, a whole plan for that.

808
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 10: Nathaniel did not accept that because that would require talking

809
00:41:37,360 --> 00:41:40,800
Speaker 10: about a Palestinian state. That would require giving up on

810
00:41:40,880 --> 00:41:44,359
Speaker 10: Nathaniel's policy of divide and conquer of the Palestinians. Where

811
00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:48,160
Speaker 10: you have Hamas in Gaza and you have the Palestinian

812
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 10: Authority in the West Bank. That way you're never going

813
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:52,880
Speaker 10: to have a Palestinian state because they're divided forever. And

814
00:41:52,920 --> 00:41:56,719
Speaker 10: that way he can avoid losing ben Vere and Smotrich

815
00:41:56,920 --> 00:41:57,800
Speaker 10: from his coalition.

816
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,120
Speaker 9: So Biden had a plan, a pretty good one.

817
00:42:02,200 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 10: I don't know if it would have worked, but at

818
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:06,440
Speaker 10: least have had some realistic prospect, and Nathaniel rejected it.

819
00:42:06,520 --> 00:42:09,000
Speaker 10: Not only did he reject the diplomatic element. This is

820
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:11,960
Speaker 10: the part that people miss. He rejected the military element.

821
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,680
Speaker 10: Nathaniel did not and has not, taken over all of Gaza,

822
00:42:16,320 --> 00:42:20,120
Speaker 10: and he's avoided doing that by withdrawing from cities that

823
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 10: he's already taken.

824
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:22,760
Speaker 9: And then taking the next city.

825
00:42:23,080 --> 00:42:25,480
Speaker 10: Think about the fact that he's going into Rafach now

826
00:42:25,920 --> 00:42:30,839
Speaker 10: but left Hanyunis. If he had Hanyunis and Rafa and

827
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:33,919
Speaker 10: Gaza city, he basically have the strip. He doesn't want

828
00:42:33,960 --> 00:42:37,600
Speaker 10: that because once he has that, he owns the Gaza Strip,

829
00:42:38,120 --> 00:42:39,839
Speaker 10: and then he has to decide what to do with it.

830
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:41,239
Speaker 10: If he just takes the city here, it takes a

831
00:42:41,280 --> 00:42:45,239
Speaker 10: city there because of destruction, he's continuing the war. But

832
00:42:45,480 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 10: there's no day after plan, and so right now the

833
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,600
Speaker 10: Americans are and I think this is a mistake playing

834
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 10: along with this fantasy that you can have a day

835
00:42:54,200 --> 00:42:56,720
Speaker 10: after plan without a taking over the entire Gaza Strip

836
00:42:57,120 --> 00:43:00,560
Speaker 10: and b bringing in an alternate reform government.

837
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:02,280
Speaker 9: And you mentioned competit to Afghanistan.

838
00:43:02,280 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 10: Of course Afghanistan was a disaster, but Afghanistan was so

839
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 10: much more logical than this, because in Afghanistan, the United

840
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:11,040
Speaker 10: States took over the entire country and put in an

841
00:43:11,080 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 10: alternate government. They cleared the enemy, and they rebuilt. The

842
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:19,399
Speaker 10: Israelis are unwilling to do either. They're unwilling to get

843
00:43:19,440 --> 00:43:23,280
Speaker 10: rid of Hamas and they're unwilling to rebuild a new government.

844
00:43:23,640 --> 00:43:26,880
Speaker 10: And the reason for that is because the Nitannail government

845
00:43:27,040 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 10: is not does not want a movement towards a two

846
00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 10: state solution and to lose support from the extreme right.

847
00:43:33,400 --> 00:43:36,239
Speaker 10: So there's no policy at all. It's much worse than Afghanistan.

848
00:43:36,280 --> 00:43:38,239
Speaker 10: If Ghanastan was an honest attempt to do something that

849
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,600
Speaker 10: went wrong, there's no honest attempt to do anything.

850
00:43:41,480 --> 00:43:43,200
Speaker 6: I've got one more question, unless you know, no go

851
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:47,200
Speaker 6: So here in Washington, DC, yesterday the House of Representatives,

852
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 6: we could put up B five here. The House of

853
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:56,160
Speaker 6: Representatives passed a bill basically sanctioning the International Criminal Court

854
00:43:56,920 --> 00:44:00,000
Speaker 6: two hundred and five Republicans joined by forty two Democrats.

855
00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,440
Speaker 3: Here's my colleague at the Intercept, Prem Tucker.

856
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:06,479
Speaker 6: Listing who the forty two Democrats are sanctioning the ICC

857
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 6: for threatening to.

858
00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 3: Issue arrest warrants.

859
00:44:10,200 --> 00:44:14,439
Speaker 6: Well, how does how does both the ic CS move

860
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:18,080
Speaker 6: originally but also then the US pushback against the ic C?

861
00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:22,919
Speaker 6: How does that play into Utahu's calculations.

862
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 10: I don't think it plays into his calculations all that much.

863
00:44:28,200 --> 00:44:30,279
Speaker 9: I don't think the ICC at this.

864
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 10: Point is going to be bullied into dropping the chargers

865
00:44:35,320 --> 00:44:40,799
Speaker 10: against Nitanyahu and Gallant. I have I've been talking to

866
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,120
Speaker 10: some people in the in the ic C.

867
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,000
Speaker 9: I've been talking to some people in the Israeli justice ministry.

868
00:44:47,120 --> 00:44:49,839
Speaker 10: They feel and if anyone knows this, because he's getting

869
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:52,359
Speaker 10: advice from these people. They feel that the more the

870
00:44:52,560 --> 00:44:55,680
Speaker 10: ICC is bullied, the more likely they are to go

871
00:44:55,760 --> 00:44:56,920
Speaker 10: forward with with it.

872
00:44:57,400 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 9: What this is on on an I the level of.

873
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:06,000
Speaker 10: The ICC and diplomatically speaking, is an attempt to shore

874
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 10: up again the base. And also it helps divide and

875
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:15,880
Speaker 10: conquer Biden from the Republicans in the in the House

876
00:45:16,480 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 10: and some Democrats as well, because Biden doesn't want to

877
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:26,799
Speaker 10: be sanctioning the ICC, nor should he. Honestly, the United

878
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 10: States is part of the liberal world order. The ic

879
00:45:29,680 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 10: C is an organization set up to prevent future genocides

880
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 10: going after them in some kind of war because you

881
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 10: disagree with their with their stance on the war in

882
00:45:41,840 --> 00:45:46,760
Speaker 10: Gaza goes against everything that a liberal internationalist like Biden

883
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:50,399
Speaker 10: and that entire administration should be doing.

884
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:52,400
Speaker 9: And that's why he doesn't want if he really doesn't

885
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:54,719
Speaker 9: want to be doing it.

886
00:45:54,760 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 10: But the reasons being done for Republicans and for Nataneo

887
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,480
Speaker 10: is completely political. It's to the Republicans to show that

888
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:05,680
Speaker 10: they're more pro Israel than Biden is, and for Nathaniel

889
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:09,520
Speaker 10: to show that he's standing up to Biden. The place

890
00:46:09,520 --> 00:46:11,760
Speaker 10: that where Natelle feels the most comfortable in the world

891
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 10: is in Washington, d C. Speaking before Congress, sticking a

892
00:46:15,760 --> 00:46:19,200
Speaker 10: finger in the eye of a democratic president. That's that's

893
00:46:19,520 --> 00:46:22,960
Speaker 10: that's his sweet spot, and that's that's always gotten him

894
00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 10: are raising the polls, and he feels very comfortable there

895
00:46:25,239 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 10: running wars, not so much fixing problems, not so much.

896
00:46:28,680 --> 00:46:32,239
Speaker 9: Giving nice speeches in Congress is great and and like.

897
00:46:32,239 --> 00:46:34,120
Speaker 10: Everything else that Nathaniel does, this is not going to

898
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 10: fix the problem with the ICC.

899
00:46:36,480 --> 00:46:40,879
Speaker 9: ICC is a legal organization, and.

900
00:46:40,800 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 10: What they asked is that Israel investigate what it's doing

901
00:46:43,280 --> 00:46:45,439
Speaker 10: in Gaza. And that's the only way that you could

902
00:46:45,440 --> 00:46:47,320
Speaker 10: get the ic C to do anything is by having

903
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 10: valid internal investigations in Israel. And Nathaniel refuses to do

904
00:46:52,480 --> 00:46:55,719
Speaker 10: that because that wouldn't play well with the base. So

905
00:46:55,840 --> 00:47:02,560
Speaker 10: instead he's going to do a grand standing show actishly.

906
00:47:02,560 --> 00:47:04,439
Speaker 3: I did have one last question for you before before

907
00:47:04,480 --> 00:47:04,680
Speaker 3: you go.

908
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:08,000
Speaker 6: Yesterday were there were some reports that Hamas had already

909
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,000
Speaker 6: rejected this offer. Yet we also have reports that Hamas

910
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:15,560
Speaker 6: is engaged in these you know, detailed negotiations, which see

911
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:18,680
Speaker 6: those two things seem to be in contradiction. What's what's

912
00:47:18,680 --> 00:47:22,399
Speaker 6: your understanding of who the final negotiators are and what

913
00:47:22,400 --> 00:47:26,040
Speaker 6: what should people be watching for for signals of whether

914
00:47:26,160 --> 00:47:28,520
Speaker 6: that not this is going to lead to a deal.

915
00:47:29,520 --> 00:47:29,759
Speaker 9: Yeah.

916
00:47:29,760 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 10: So the first thing I would question is that if

917
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,800
Speaker 10: you hear that someone accepted or didn't accept without a statement,

918
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:35,440
Speaker 10: ignore it.

919
00:47:36,520 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 9: There's a lot of spin right now.

920
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:42,960
Speaker 10: From interested actors and people are trying to raise the price,

921
00:47:43,120 --> 00:47:45,680
Speaker 10: lower the price, and they say, that's fine that.

922
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:46,160
Speaker 9: They're doing that.

923
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:49,040
Speaker 10: That's how you negotiate, like Israel's doing that, US is

924
00:47:49,080 --> 00:47:50,279
Speaker 10: doing that, Hamas is doing that.

925
00:47:50,280 --> 00:47:53,320
Speaker 9: That's how you negotiate. That's just that's just how it's done.

926
00:47:53,760 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 9: But as far as as.

927
00:47:56,160 --> 00:48:00,279
Speaker 10: The actual process and not the statements, there's meat in

928
00:48:00,320 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 10: Doha under Bill Burns, Israeli delegation is going to be

929
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 10: their Tattari delegation is going to be their Egyptian delegation

930
00:48:07,920 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 10: is going to be there, and that's where they're going

931
00:48:10,600 --> 00:48:12,120
Speaker 10: to have the talks.

932
00:48:12,880 --> 00:48:14,960
Speaker 9: What's going to happen there is two things.

933
00:48:15,280 --> 00:48:17,279
Speaker 10: Hamas is going to try to squeeze out some more

934
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 10: concessions that they never accept an offer as is, They're

935
00:48:21,239 --> 00:48:23,600
Speaker 10: just not wired that way, even though this offer is good,

936
00:48:23,760 --> 00:48:26,239
Speaker 10: is very good for them, So they'll be doing that.

937
00:48:26,640 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 10: But the most important thing that both sides will be

938
00:48:28,920 --> 00:48:31,480
Speaker 10: doing there is they'll be trying to do what James

939
00:48:31,480 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 10: Baker called leave the dead cat on the other side's doorstep.

940
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:39,279
Speaker 10: You want to they both sides have an interest in

941
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 10: making this fail, but neither side has an interest in

942
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:47,240
Speaker 10: making this fail and appear to be their fault because

943
00:48:47,640 --> 00:48:49,840
Speaker 10: they'll be facing Hamas will be facing a lot of

944
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:52,360
Speaker 10: problems with Katar and Israel will be facing a lot

945
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:54,680
Speaker 10: of problems with the United States. So what they're going

946
00:48:54,719 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 10: to do is they're going to try to maneuver to

947
00:48:56,760 --> 00:49:01,000
Speaker 10: blame the other side for the failure. The only way

948
00:49:01,040 --> 00:49:03,640
Speaker 10: that really that this is even accepted is if both

949
00:49:03,719 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 10: sides are somehow put it on the spot where they

950
00:49:06,719 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 10: could be blamed for the failure, something that James Baker,

951
00:49:09,080 --> 00:49:11,000
Speaker 10: who I mentioned, was very good at because he's aware

952
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 10: of the dynamic. I'm not sure that Bill Burns really

953
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:16,480
Speaker 10: knows how to do that properly.

954
00:49:16,600 --> 00:49:19,040
Speaker 9: He's the CIA is actually not they're not.

955
00:49:19,120 --> 00:49:23,799
Speaker 10: They don't specialize in negotiating, So that that's what we

956
00:49:23,800 --> 00:49:26,359
Speaker 10: should be looking at, because I think both sides want

957
00:49:26,480 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 10: us to fail. Not most Israelis, by the way, and

958
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:32,840
Speaker 10: not even most of the government but Nataniahu wants.

959
00:49:32,640 --> 00:49:35,840
Speaker 9: It to fail for his political reasons, and.

960
00:49:36,080 --> 00:49:40,000
Speaker 10: Sinwar wants it to fail for his mostly strategic reasons.

961
00:49:40,000 --> 00:49:42,440
Speaker 10: And by the way, most of Tamas abroad wants it

962
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:42,960
Speaker 10: to succeed.

963
00:49:43,239 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 9: So they're both under.

964
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:48,120
Speaker 10: Tons of pressure to accept it, but they don't want to.

965
00:49:48,560 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 9: So what we're going to be seeing is people trying

966
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 9: to avoid that.

967
00:49:51,200 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 6: And also we know from the reaction of the last

968
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:58,680
Speaker 6: what look to be ceasfire from Gosen's just celebrations in

969
00:49:58,719 --> 00:50:02,440
Speaker 6: the street. Palistinian people want this ten too, so hopefully

970
00:50:02,600 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 6: Israeli people in the Palace, any people will get what

971
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:05,560
Speaker 6: they want.

972
00:50:05,920 --> 00:50:06,719
Speaker 3: These leaders won't.

973
00:50:06,719 --> 00:50:09,279
Speaker 6: We'll see, but like you said, slim chance since they

974
00:50:09,320 --> 00:50:10,080
Speaker 6: all wanted to fail.

975
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:12,799
Speaker 5: No, it's early shlle So thank you so much for

976
00:50:13,000 --> 00:50:16,000
Speaker 5: waking up and briefing us with insights here.

977
00:50:17,680 --> 00:50:18,839
Speaker 4: Appreciate it so much.

978
00:50:19,200 --> 00:50:21,280
Speaker 9: Thank you again, Thank you so much, hev loove leaving.

979
00:50:24,080 --> 00:50:27,400
Speaker 6: Attorney General Merrit Garland testified before the House of Representatives.

980
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:29,720
Speaker 6: One of the first people to confront him was Republican

981
00:50:29,760 --> 00:50:30,280
Speaker 6: Matt Gates.

982
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:32,359
Speaker 3: Let's watch a little bit of that exchange.

983
00:50:32,600 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 13: You lodge this attack that it's a conspiracy theory that

984
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 13: there is coordinated lawfair against Trump. And then when we say, fine,

985
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 13: just give us the documents, give us the correspondence, and

986
00:50:43,120 --> 00:50:45,280
Speaker 13: then if it's a conspiracy theory, that will be evident.

987
00:50:45,400 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 13: But when you say, well, we'll take your request and

988
00:50:48,200 --> 00:50:52,640
Speaker 13: then we'll sort of work it through the DOJ's accommodation process,

989
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 13: then you're actually advancing the very dangerous conspiracy theory that

990
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:59,520
Speaker 13: you're concerned about. Now you're you were a judge once

991
00:50:59,600 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 13: nominated the highest court in our country. When you were

992
00:51:02,560 --> 00:51:05,440
Speaker 13: a judge, I'm just curious, did you ever make political

993
00:51:05,520 --> 00:51:08,120
Speaker 13: donations to partisan candidates?

994
00:51:08,640 --> 00:51:09,520
Speaker 9: No?

995
00:51:09,520 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 13: No, and you didn't because that would create the potential

996
00:51:13,840 --> 00:51:15,160
Speaker 13: appearance of impropriety.

997
00:51:15,239 --> 00:51:18,280
Speaker 14: I didn't because there's a federal rule oh awing federal

998
00:51:18,360 --> 00:51:19,879
Speaker 14: judges for making contributions.

999
00:51:20,000 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 13: Right, But under that same theory of attacks on the

1000
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:29,600
Speaker 13: judicial process, like shouldn't someone be owed like a jury

1001
00:51:29,640 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 13: of their peers and a judge that's non biased, rather

1002
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:35,200
Speaker 13: than getting a judge from your political opponent's donor.

1003
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 14: File, I'm well aware that you're not asking hypothetical. You're

1004
00:51:38,160 --> 00:51:41,440
Speaker 14: asking me to comment on a verdict jury verdict in

1005
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:45,080
Speaker 14: another jurisdiction, which has to be respected, so.

1006
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 5: I was going to say ran more of that. That

1007
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,560
Speaker 5: was basically the tone of the entire hearing. Back and forth.

1008
00:51:49,600 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 5: Merrick Garland started the hearing, we can put this up

1009
00:51:51,680 --> 00:51:53,840
Speaker 5: on the screen. I really enjoyed the ABC News headline,

1010
00:51:53,880 --> 00:51:54,879
Speaker 5: which is why I included this.

1011
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 4: Particular tear sheet.

1012
00:51:56,320 --> 00:52:00,680
Speaker 5: Their headline was Attorney General Merrit Garland blasts conspiracy theories

1013
00:52:00,719 --> 00:52:05,160
Speaker 5: about Trump criminal case and the FBI. So they write

1014
00:52:05,400 --> 00:52:08,560
Speaker 5: Garland is pushing back forcefully unquote false and quote extremely

1015
00:52:08,640 --> 00:52:12,200
Speaker 5: dangerous narratives he says are being spread about the Department

1016
00:52:12,480 --> 00:52:16,840
Speaker 5: of Justice. And that was in a hearing for the

1017
00:52:16,880 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 5: House Judiciary Committee on Tuesday, so just yesterday.

1018
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:21,879
Speaker 4: This one on for a long time.

1019
00:52:21,920 --> 00:52:24,120
Speaker 5: Garland continued to say, certain members of this committee and

1020
00:52:24,120 --> 00:52:27,920
Speaker 5: the Oversight Committee are seeking contempt as a means of obtaining,

1021
00:52:28,000 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 5: for no legitimate purpose, sensitive law enforcement information that could

1022
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 5: harm it the integrity of future investigations. That was his

1023
00:52:36,960 --> 00:52:40,799
Speaker 5: line sort of throughout these questions, and Jim Jordan came

1024
00:52:40,800 --> 00:52:43,960
Speaker 5: out swinging. Matt Gates really went in on Merrik Garland.

1025
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:48,880
Speaker 5: None of this is particularly surprising. Jerry Nadler said basically

1026
00:52:48,920 --> 00:52:52,799
Speaker 5: that the House Judiciary Committee had become an acting arm

1027
00:52:52,840 --> 00:52:56,080
Speaker 5: of the Trump campaign, is I think how he phrased it.

1028
00:52:56,480 --> 00:52:59,399
Speaker 5: People like Thomas Massey asked questions actually about ray Epps

1029
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:03,440
Speaker 5: in January. It was a pretty wide ranging conversation that

1030
00:53:03,480 --> 00:53:07,319
Speaker 5: they ended up having here, but Garland did not want

1031
00:53:07,360 --> 00:53:10,120
Speaker 5: to get into specifics about to the extent to which

1032
00:53:10,160 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 5: this was the exchange she just had with Matt Case.

1033
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 5: You saw the DOJ may have coordinated at all on

1034
00:53:16,080 --> 00:53:18,759
Speaker 5: any of the law fair cases against Donald Trump, and

1035
00:53:18,800 --> 00:53:21,240
Speaker 5: it was happening on a split screen as the DOJ

1036
00:53:21,440 --> 00:53:25,359
Speaker 5: was also prosecuting the Hunter Biden case in Delaware. That

1037
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:29,040
Speaker 5: was Weiss is the prosecutor in that case. But also

1038
00:53:29,120 --> 00:53:31,480
Speaker 5: people may remember got sort of dressed down by the

1039
00:53:31,560 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 5: judge in the case last year for basically soft pedaling

1040
00:53:36,400 --> 00:53:39,920
Speaker 5: letting the statute of limitations expire on the Hunter Biden charges,

1041
00:53:40,000 --> 00:53:42,799
Speaker 5: to the point where even the judge was surprised that, like, oh.

1042
00:53:42,719 --> 00:53:45,400
Speaker 4: You're the prosecutor here, what are you doing? This is

1043
00:53:45,440 --> 00:53:46,920
Speaker 4: not the way to prosecute your case.

1044
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:50,160
Speaker 5: So there are a lot of actual questions that aren't

1045
00:53:50,239 --> 00:53:53,800
Speaker 5: quote conspiracy theories. Of course, there are some conspiracy theories

1046
00:53:53,800 --> 00:53:55,239
Speaker 5: on the right, as there are in the left, But

1047
00:53:55,239 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 5: there are a lot of serious questions that aren't conspiracy theories.

1048
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:00,360
Speaker 5: I thought the media coverage of this was sort of

1049
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:05,479
Speaker 5: sneering and contemptuous of some relatively serious questions that Merrick

1050
00:54:05,840 --> 00:54:08,920
Speaker 5: Garland absolutely deserves to be peppered with. You'd think other

1051
00:54:09,000 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 5: journalists would be curious about some of them too.

1052
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:14,120
Speaker 6: But isn't it the case that Garland himself, I mean,

1053
00:54:14,160 --> 00:54:18,560
Speaker 6: most Democrats are furious at Merrick Garland for not prosecuting

1054
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:23,240
Speaker 6: Trump with any aggressiveness, right Like he set up he

1055
00:54:23,280 --> 00:54:25,800
Speaker 6: dithered for years and then set up a special counsel

1056
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,640
Speaker 6: and let and let the Special Council, which I guess

1057
00:54:28,680 --> 00:54:30,760
Speaker 6: we're not going to find out whether or not. Eileen

1058
00:54:30,800 --> 00:54:33,920
Speaker 6: Cannon thinks that the Special Council even was appointed properly

1059
00:54:34,000 --> 00:54:38,400
Speaker 6: or not. So it feels like the wrong target to me,

1060
00:54:38,560 --> 00:54:41,759
Speaker 6: Like Merrick Garland is, like if everything was left to

1061
00:54:41,800 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 6: Merrick Garland like a Alvin Bragg is, it's a New

1062
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 6: York prosecutor, right, But the rest of the case were

1063
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:50,879
Speaker 6: brought by the special councils that he brought.

1064
00:54:50,920 --> 00:54:52,320
Speaker 3: He didn't bring himself.

1065
00:54:53,960 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 6: Just kind of feel like do they think that, look,

1066
00:54:57,239 --> 00:55:01,520
Speaker 6: what would be the conspiracy that like MARYK. Garland actually

1067
00:55:01,520 --> 00:55:04,520
Speaker 6: wanted to prosecute, but didn't feel like he could prosecute

1068
00:55:05,360 --> 00:55:08,880
Speaker 6: from directly from his office, So then he dethered for

1069
00:55:08,880 --> 00:55:10,759
Speaker 6: two years and then set up a special counsel that's

1070
00:55:10,760 --> 00:55:12,880
Speaker 6: not going to get it done in time before the election. Like,

1071
00:55:12,920 --> 00:55:16,480
Speaker 6: what a pitiful conspiracy if that's what if that's what

1072
00:55:16,520 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 6: the plan was.

1073
00:55:17,440 --> 00:55:21,759
Speaker 5: And see I find the pitiful conspiracy to be entirely believable.

1074
00:55:22,239 --> 00:55:25,760
Speaker 5: It seems like a plausible theory actually, because Merrick Garland

1075
00:55:25,800 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 5: is someone and this is he's sort of the perfect

1076
00:55:28,040 --> 00:55:33,680
Speaker 5: pick for the Biden administration's DJ because it's this like symbolic.

1077
00:55:34,800 --> 00:55:39,719
Speaker 6: Outrage by symbolism over actual effectiveness.

1078
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 5: Right half measures, And in a way, that's really been

1079
00:55:40,960 --> 00:55:41,960
Speaker 5: the theme of today's show.

1080
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:42,800
Speaker 4: We start with this.

1081
00:55:43,400 --> 00:55:45,760
Speaker 5: And I know you and I disagree on the executive

1082
00:55:45,760 --> 00:55:47,760
Speaker 5: action on the board of the executive order on the border,

1083
00:55:47,960 --> 00:55:50,280
Speaker 5: but whatever you think of it, it's not an honest,

1084
00:55:51,160 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 5: full throated embrace of any serious principled position. Same thing

1085
00:55:55,320 --> 00:55:58,840
Speaker 5: with his Israel policy. Not an honest, full throated defense

1086
00:55:58,920 --> 00:56:01,839
Speaker 5: of his position. And I think that's basically the line

1087
00:56:01,840 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 5: that Garland has brought, Like this weird prosecution of Hunter Biden,

1088
00:56:05,080 --> 00:56:07,919
Speaker 5: where you let the statute of limitations expire and then

1089
00:56:08,239 --> 00:56:13,120
Speaker 5: do this strange like kind of half asked prosecution attempt

1090
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 5: by a special or by Wise who's not seems to

1091
00:56:18,000 --> 00:56:20,759
Speaker 5: be like utterly disinterested in actually prosecuting Hunter Biden.

1092
00:56:20,840 --> 00:56:23,319
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it's because Merrik Garland really is this

1093
00:56:23,440 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 6: kind of institutionalist who's like out of the cast of

1094
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:29,480
Speaker 6: the West Wing like that, that really is who he is.

1095
00:56:30,239 --> 00:56:33,440
Speaker 6: Biden initially was going to appoint Doug Jones to be

1096
00:56:33,480 --> 00:56:37,560
Speaker 6: Attorney general. Jones was the Alabama senator who beat Roy

1097
00:56:37,600 --> 00:56:41,239
Speaker 6: Moore famously kind of prosecuted the Klan, and it is

1098
00:56:41,280 --> 00:56:47,960
Speaker 6: a much more aggressive prosecutor and probably would have been

1099
00:56:48,040 --> 00:56:51,880
Speaker 6: much more aggressive than Merrick Garland going after Trumps cronies.

1100
00:56:53,000 --> 00:56:56,560
Speaker 6: But instead, for whatever reason, and we'll get more memoirs

1101
00:56:56,600 --> 00:56:59,440
Speaker 6: eventually and we'll learn learn exactly.

1102
00:56:59,040 --> 00:57:01,480
Speaker 3: Why, you know, he changed his mind at the last minute.

1103
00:57:02,360 --> 00:57:06,480
Speaker 6: They went with Garland, I think mostly to like kind

1104
00:57:06,520 --> 00:57:10,319
Speaker 6: of own the Republicans, like haha, like you blocked him

1105
00:57:10,320 --> 00:57:13,560
Speaker 6: from being the Supreme Court justice, but now you know

1106
00:57:13,600 --> 00:57:16,600
Speaker 6: he gets to be an attorney general. Isn't it like

1107
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:22,640
Speaker 6: a real like chef's kiss for like resistance liberals. That's

1108
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:25,520
Speaker 6: why I say symbolism over the substance. And Garland is

1109
00:57:25,800 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 6: obviously extremely competent and qualified and all those things, but

1110
00:57:29,680 --> 00:57:34,280
Speaker 6: he is a nineties era institutionalist in a kind of

1111
00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:39,280
Speaker 6: more partisan, bare knuckled environment, and you're kind of watching

1112
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 6: him tangle with Matt Gates shows the kind of an

1113
00:57:42,560 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 6: acron that his anachronistic institutionalism is no kind of defense

1114
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:49,800
Speaker 6: against Gates. Gates doesn't care, and he's got the wrong

1115
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:50,080
Speaker 6: guy here.

1116
00:57:50,120 --> 00:57:50,920
Speaker 3: He's going to beat him up.

1117
00:57:50,920 --> 00:57:51,640
Speaker 4: Ayway, We're interesting.

1118
00:57:51,640 --> 00:57:56,400
Speaker 5: The establishment Democrats Jerry Nadler, for example, as a reaction

1119
00:57:56,480 --> 00:58:00,560
Speaker 5: to Matt Gates, are embracing the nineties era institutionalism. That's

1120
00:58:00,680 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 5: not exactly a popular with the Democratic base right now either,

1121
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:06,760
Speaker 5: but that's how they react. I mean, it might be

1122
00:58:06,760 --> 00:58:09,600
Speaker 5: popular in Jerry Nadler's district. But one of the big

1123
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:13,320
Speaker 5: points of contention in Garland's testimony yesterday is that he's refusing.

1124
00:58:13,600 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 5: So Biden lied about the audio of his interview with

1125
00:58:16,360 --> 00:58:19,080
Speaker 5: Robert hurt Special Consul Robert Hurr in the document's case,

1126
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:21,680
Speaker 5: he said things that are not true, because we then

1127
00:58:21,760 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 5: had the transcript the DOJ is right now refusing to

1128
00:58:24,600 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 5: also release the audio of the conversation because they're saying,

1129
00:58:28,360 --> 00:58:30,600
Speaker 5: you already had the transcript. It might and this was

1130
00:58:30,640 --> 00:58:36,280
Speaker 5: Merrick Garland's line yesterday, what might dissuade future cooperation from

1131
00:58:36,280 --> 00:58:38,480
Speaker 5: people that the DOJ needs to cooperate in, people like

1132
00:58:38,600 --> 00:58:42,200
Speaker 5: Joe Biden. And even though Biden lied about it, the

1133
00:58:42,240 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 5: DJ is not releasing the actual audio itself, and so

1134
00:58:45,840 --> 00:58:49,280
Speaker 5: Garland faced some really stiff questions over that yesterday, especially

1135
00:58:49,320 --> 00:58:51,280
Speaker 5: with that kind of side by side. What a lot

1136
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:55,160
Speaker 5: of people see is this political law fair probably coordinated

1137
00:58:55,160 --> 00:58:56,760
Speaker 5: by the DJ at some point, which is why they

1138
00:58:56,760 --> 00:58:59,760
Speaker 5: don't want to release That line of questioning is interesting.

1139
00:59:00,000 --> 00:59:02,440
Speaker 5: Don't want to release any communications that they've had with

1140
00:59:02,520 --> 00:59:06,680
Speaker 5: any of the other prosecutors. Now, theoretically there could be

1141
00:59:06,680 --> 00:59:08,600
Speaker 5: a good reason for that, and this is usually the

1142
00:59:08,640 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 5: problem with the government when they're refusing to release things.

1143
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:14,600
Speaker 5: We have no way of knowing whether or not their

1144
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:19,320
Speaker 5: theoretical line of argumentation is accurate because it could be

1145
00:59:19,440 --> 00:59:23,240
Speaker 5: or is reasonable because we can't see the information. In

1146
00:59:23,320 --> 00:59:25,400
Speaker 5: order to know whether it's reasonable, you kind of just

1147
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:28,720
Speaker 5: have to have trust. And it's not like this doj

1148
00:59:29,120 --> 00:59:31,680
Speaker 5: or this administration is just rolling.

1149
00:59:31,360 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 6: In public trust, right, But for Gates to expect that

1150
00:59:35,400 --> 00:59:37,960
Speaker 6: Garland's gonna be like, oh, yeah, you wanted all those emails, Yeah,

1151
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:38,720
Speaker 6: I've got them right here.

1152
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:39,000
Speaker 8: Yeah.

1153
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:40,440
Speaker 4: Oh well, I mean, of course, I don't think he

1154
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 4: expected that.

1155
00:59:41,320 --> 00:59:42,960
Speaker 6: It seems like he's saying, well, you say you have

1156
00:59:43,000 --> 00:59:44,600
Speaker 6: to go back and put it through the process.

1157
00:59:45,160 --> 00:59:45,960
Speaker 3: Well yeah, what else.

1158
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:48,880
Speaker 4: You're saying?

1159
00:59:49,000 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, and like pull it up and hand it over.

1160
00:59:51,240 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 5: I mean, I thought Gates knew he was like he

1161
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:56,040
Speaker 5: was almost like reading off a script of like how

1162
00:59:56,040 --> 00:59:57,000
Speaker 5: he expected.

1163
00:59:56,640 --> 01:00:00,440
Speaker 6: Golf course to and that whole that whole line of

1164
01:00:00,520 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 6: questioning is very easy to say. You know, it's it's

1165
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 6: your fault that I believe the things that I believe. Yeah,

1166
01:00:09,480 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 6: which the greatest kind of advent of the of the

1167
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,480
Speaker 6: Twitter era was whenever somebody posts something that turns out

1168
01:00:16,520 --> 01:00:20,680
Speaker 6: to be completely wrong, what they will then respond with,

1169
01:00:21,080 --> 01:00:23,640
Speaker 6: if they actually take it down, will be But isn't

1170
01:00:23,680 --> 01:00:27,280
Speaker 6: the really interesting point the fact that I believed it? Yeah,

1171
01:00:27,320 --> 01:00:31,360
Speaker 6: That's that's what's really interesting here, Like, Okay, this wasn't true,

1172
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:33,280
Speaker 6: but the fact that I thought it was true really

1173
01:00:33,280 --> 01:00:37,160
Speaker 6: tells you something about society today, and that's just intellectually

1174
01:00:37,400 --> 01:00:38,520
Speaker 6: completely dishonest.

1175
01:00:38,680 --> 01:00:42,480
Speaker 5: So the Wall Street Journal described Merritt Garland yesterday as

1176
01:00:42,520 --> 01:00:46,760
Speaker 5: a quote by the book play no favorites approach to investigations.

1177
01:00:46,120 --> 01:00:47,520
Speaker 3: Or his Murdock agrees.

1178
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:51,880
Speaker 5: Murdoch agrees, right, But that's I mean, that's really going

1179
01:00:51,920 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 5: to start getting under the skin obviously not just of

1180
01:00:53,880 --> 01:00:56,800
Speaker 5: congressional Republicans but of also Democrats.

1181
01:00:56,840 --> 01:00:59,280
Speaker 6: They don't they want him to play favorites, Like, yeah,

1182
01:00:59,360 --> 01:01:01,439
Speaker 6: favoritism the decation.

1183
01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:03,680
Speaker 4: Want to be embraced the playing of favorite.

1184
01:01:03,360 --> 01:01:06,840
Speaker 6: And yes, like say like, look, this is democracy verus fascism.

1185
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:08,479
Speaker 6: What do you mean you don't have a favorite between

1186
01:01:08,520 --> 01:01:09,640
Speaker 6: democracy of fascism.

1187
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:12,480
Speaker 5: He kind of does that, but to your point, it's

1188
01:01:12,480 --> 01:01:14,280
Speaker 5: not in the same way where he's just like, we're

1189
01:01:14,280 --> 01:01:18,000
Speaker 5: not prosecuting Hunter Biden. You know, we're not gonna get

1190
01:01:18,000 --> 01:01:20,040
Speaker 5: into it because basically the statute of experts is a

1191
01:01:20,040 --> 01:01:23,200
Speaker 5: statue of limitations expiring meant that you couldn't prosecute him

1192
01:01:23,200 --> 01:01:24,080
Speaker 5: on the FARA charges.

1193
01:01:24,120 --> 01:01:24,680
Speaker 4: Of course, PAULM.

1194
01:01:24,680 --> 01:01:28,840
Speaker 5: Manafort was prosecuted stiffly unfair charges, you know, and then

1195
01:01:28,880 --> 01:01:31,960
Speaker 5: Tony Podesta didn't go to prison like and palmannifort was

1196
01:01:31,960 --> 01:01:35,080
Speaker 5: accused of more law breaking obviously than just the Faro.

1197
01:01:35,000 --> 01:01:37,960
Speaker 4: Charges, But I think there's really serious questions.

1198
01:01:38,000 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 5: It's though to your point, Ryan, the DOJ is not

1199
01:01:41,760 --> 01:01:45,800
Speaker 5: what it used to be, and neither no political parties

1200
01:01:45,840 --> 01:01:49,800
Speaker 5: president at this point expects the DOJ to be this

1201
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:56,440
Speaker 5: like institution of true non partisan capital J justice that

1202
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:57,080
Speaker 5: it used to be.

1203
01:01:57,480 --> 01:02:00,280
Speaker 3: And let this be a tease for our Friday show.

1204
01:02:00,720 --> 01:02:01,439
Speaker 3: We're going to have.

1205
01:02:03,040 --> 01:02:03,240
Speaker 9: Two.

1206
01:02:03,320 --> 01:02:06,960
Speaker 6: We're gonna have a true blue liberal progressive defending the

1207
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:13,400
Speaker 6: Locke Trump up perspective, and then true red Maga saying

1208
01:02:13,480 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 6: do not do it, Yeah, Brian Boiler.

1209
01:02:16,640 --> 01:02:19,320
Speaker 3: And who's the mega guy, Will Chamberlain. Will Chamberlain. Yeah,

1210
01:02:19,400 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 3: so that'll that'll be Friday.

1211
01:02:23,160 --> 01:02:25,760
Speaker 6: Let's move on for now over to a bunch of

1212
01:02:25,800 --> 01:02:27,360
Speaker 6: the elections around the world.

1213
01:02:27,560 --> 01:02:30,320
Speaker 5: Let's start with India, because Brian, you've been following this

1214
01:02:30,320 --> 01:02:33,840
Speaker 5: one really closely where you're and Dramodi was reelected his

1215
01:02:34,000 --> 01:02:39,959
Speaker 5: party though surprising surprisingly poor performance basically across.

1216
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:41,520
Speaker 3: And interestingly, yeah, we can put this up on the screen.

1217
01:02:41,560 --> 01:02:45,920
Speaker 6: We can't even necessarily say that he's going to get

1218
01:02:45,920 --> 01:02:48,880
Speaker 6: a third term, even though the press is saying set

1219
01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 6: to win historic third term. That's that's how Reuters puts

1220
01:02:51,640 --> 01:02:54,640
Speaker 6: it here. He has to now cobble. He got his

1221
01:02:54,680 --> 01:02:59,400
Speaker 6: party got less than a majority. His coalition pushed over

1222
01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:02,480
Speaker 6: a majority. But his coalition is extremely fickle because it's

1223
01:03:02,520 --> 01:03:05,640
Speaker 6: got these kind of two political parties that joined him

1224
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:10,080
Speaker 6: like two months ago, and you know could be you know, could.

1225
01:03:09,800 --> 01:03:13,520
Speaker 3: You know, bounce at any second. So now he has to.

1226
01:03:12,840 --> 01:03:15,440
Speaker 6: Go to them and gravel in order to get them

1227
01:03:15,480 --> 01:03:17,720
Speaker 6: to join his coalitions that he can become prime minister

1228
01:03:17,800 --> 01:03:21,680
Speaker 6: for the third time. The compared to you know, we've

1229
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:27,000
Speaker 6: covered that incredible February eighth Pakistan election where they change

1230
01:03:27,040 --> 01:03:31,560
Speaker 6: the numbers like in plane view, like the most flagrant

1231
01:03:31,960 --> 01:03:35,800
Speaker 6: kind of major country rigging that we've maybe ever seen

1232
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:39,400
Speaker 6: in like world history. So compared to that, the Indian

1233
01:03:39,400 --> 01:03:42,480
Speaker 6: election was free and fair. But the Indian election was

1234
01:03:42,960 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 6: extraordinarily rigged towards Modi. Opposition leaders you know, were jailed.

1235
01:03:50,160 --> 01:03:54,160
Speaker 6: There was you know, violent suppression of the opposition. The

1236
01:03:54,200 --> 01:03:57,800
Speaker 6: Modi outspent his opposition ten or one hundred to one.

1237
01:03:58,120 --> 01:03:59,360
Speaker 3: You know, it wasn't even close.

1238
01:03:59,760 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 6: He deployed all of the kind of instruments of the

1239
01:04:04,160 --> 01:04:10,400
Speaker 6: government toward his electoral favor and the entire Indian media

1240
01:04:10,440 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 6: apparatus was lockstep behind Modi. So under those circumstances, to

1241
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:20,640
Speaker 6: fall short of a majority really makes you ask, you know,

1242
01:04:20,720 --> 01:04:24,080
Speaker 6: what the heck happens? And so what the heck happens

1243
01:04:24,080 --> 01:04:29,200
Speaker 6: seems to be the massive joblessness across India that Modi

1244
01:04:29,240 --> 01:04:33,400
Speaker 6: has been has been good at creating kind of cash

1245
01:04:33,400 --> 01:04:39,640
Speaker 6: transfers and you know, keep and helping people kind of

1246
01:04:41,320 --> 01:04:44,560
Speaker 6: you know, stay out of like desperation, but he has

1247
01:04:44,640 --> 01:04:47,320
Speaker 6: not been good at getting them jobs. And he has

1248
01:04:47,400 --> 01:04:50,520
Speaker 6: instead focused a lot of his energy on this Hindu

1249
01:04:50,640 --> 01:04:55,440
Speaker 6: nationalism and trying to kind of turn India into you know,

1250
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:57,760
Speaker 6: an ethno Hindu state.

1251
01:04:57,760 --> 01:05:00,200
Speaker 4: Which was fairly popular apparently on that.

1252
01:05:00,840 --> 01:05:03,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, among yes, he I mean he had.

1253
01:05:03,000 --> 01:05:04,360
Speaker 4: Massive electoral successes.

1254
01:05:04,760 --> 01:05:07,600
Speaker 5: He was first elected went twenty fourteen, right, Yeah, so,

1255
01:05:08,120 --> 01:05:10,000
Speaker 5: I mean it was going well until it wasn't.

1256
01:05:10,280 --> 01:05:16,680
Speaker 6: Yes, he had two resounding victories, and the opposition ran

1257
01:05:17,000 --> 01:05:24,120
Speaker 6: on basically economic justice, saying that you know, we're falling behind,

1258
01:05:24,160 --> 01:05:28,280
Speaker 6: the elites are taking over, and you know, we want

1259
01:05:28,280 --> 01:05:31,720
Speaker 6: better jobs, we want more power in the workplace, and

1260
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:37,560
Speaker 6: that that message, that message resonated and Modi as all

1261
01:05:37,720 --> 01:05:40,600
Speaker 6: kind of authoritarians who are running on this kind of

1262
01:05:42,560 --> 01:05:44,480
Speaker 6: on this kind of platform trying to do is they

1263
01:05:44,800 --> 01:05:48,919
Speaker 6: want to divide people along cultural lines rather than kind

1264
01:05:48,920 --> 01:05:52,240
Speaker 6: of give in to their material needs, which then, you know,

1265
01:05:52,360 --> 01:05:54,000
Speaker 6: kind of suppresses what.

1266
01:05:55,680 --> 01:05:56,440
Speaker 3: You know, suppresses the.

1267
01:05:56,440 --> 01:06:00,640
Speaker 6: Amount of wealth that can be absorbed by the one percent.

1268
01:06:01,400 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 6: And so we see that here in the United States,

1269
01:06:03,600 --> 01:06:05,640
Speaker 6: we see that around the world. And this was people

1270
01:06:05,720 --> 01:06:09,000
Speaker 6: pushing back and saying, no, I don't your your racism

1271
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:11,560
Speaker 6: is not enough, like I want I want a job.

1272
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 5: Actually, so tell us a little bit more about and

1273
01:06:16,640 --> 01:06:20,000
Speaker 5: actually another interesting element of this is Modi's control of

1274
01:06:20,040 --> 01:06:21,040
Speaker 5: the press and information.

1275
01:06:21,520 --> 01:06:24,479
Speaker 4: So it's you know, people would put two into together.

1276
01:06:24,600 --> 01:06:28,120
Speaker 5: Unusual for someone who has a lot of control over

1277
01:06:28,160 --> 01:06:30,200
Speaker 5: the press and the flow of information to then be

1278
01:06:30,240 --> 01:06:31,360
Speaker 5: punished at the polls.

1279
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:32,680
Speaker 4: It sort of undermines the point of it.

1280
01:06:32,720 --> 01:06:34,880
Speaker 5: But it also undermines the argument this would you know,

1281
01:06:35,000 --> 01:06:39,080
Speaker 5: just pure, unadult rated kind of fascism. Can you break

1282
01:06:39,080 --> 01:06:43,720
Speaker 5: that down a little bit like, actually, what Modi's control

1283
01:06:44,080 --> 01:06:47,680
Speaker 5: versus how voters responded and what that says about the control?

1284
01:06:47,760 --> 01:06:48,800
Speaker 4: How does that play out here?

1285
01:06:48,960 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 6: Yeah, and we can put up the second element here

1286
01:06:51,400 --> 01:06:55,120
Speaker 6: which is if you go google this headline when you're

1287
01:06:55,160 --> 01:06:56,920
Speaker 6: done with this. This is kind of a fun article

1288
01:06:56,920 --> 01:06:59,960
Speaker 6: to read because if you don't follow Indian politics close,

1289
01:07:01,320 --> 01:07:04,480
Speaker 6: so much of it is different, you know, parties and

1290
01:07:04,520 --> 01:07:06,800
Speaker 6: figures that are that will be completely obscure to you.

1291
01:07:08,440 --> 01:07:11,680
Speaker 3: But the conclusion is pretty straightforward.

1292
01:07:12,240 --> 01:07:15,840
Speaker 6: The coalition the opposite and coalition was cleverly called India.

1293
01:07:15,960 --> 01:07:17,360
Speaker 3: That's their acronym, India.

1294
01:07:19,440 --> 01:07:22,320
Speaker 6: The India parties have understood the significance of not only

1295
01:07:22,360 --> 01:07:27,040
Speaker 6: fair representation but also crucially issues of economic justice. Such

1296
01:07:27,080 --> 01:07:29,760
Speaker 6: an awareness has not only helped them correct their political

1297
01:07:29,800 --> 01:07:32,400
Speaker 6: course and learn from each other, but also question their

1298
01:07:32,400 --> 01:07:39,720
Speaker 6: inherent social prejudices and predispositions. India is this conglomeration of

1299
01:07:39,760 --> 01:07:45,080
Speaker 6: so many different cultures into one nation, and it had

1300
01:07:45,120 --> 01:07:48,360
Speaker 6: it had been easy for people to kind of play

1301
01:07:48,360 --> 01:07:52,440
Speaker 6: people's prejudices off of each other, and Modi was good

1302
01:07:52,440 --> 01:07:55,240
Speaker 6: at that, and the and the coalition had been unable

1303
01:07:55,280 --> 01:07:58,360
Speaker 6: to come together because there were so many different factions

1304
01:07:58,360 --> 01:08:00,680
Speaker 6: within it that were, you know, jocking their own power

1305
01:08:00,680 --> 01:08:03,240
Speaker 6: and had their as this article saying, had their own

1306
01:08:03,400 --> 01:08:07,200
Speaker 6: had their own prejudices and then and would then overly

1307
01:08:07,240 --> 01:08:11,560
Speaker 6: rely on just representation and need something from this province,

1308
01:08:11,560 --> 01:08:15,720
Speaker 6: from this national et cetera. But what what they really

1309
01:08:16,360 --> 01:08:19,439
Speaker 6: finally came together on was not we're all in this together.

1310
01:08:20,000 --> 01:08:24,160
Speaker 6: Stop letting them, stop letting Modi divide us. We all

1311
01:08:24,240 --> 01:08:27,160
Speaker 6: want the same things. And and so that's the thing

1312
01:08:27,200 --> 01:08:28,799
Speaker 6: that Modi wasn't.

1313
01:08:28,640 --> 01:08:29,360
Speaker 3: Able to overcome.

1314
01:08:30,200 --> 01:08:34,120
Speaker 6: And it also shows the weakness of authoritarianism in one sense,

1315
01:08:34,560 --> 01:08:37,639
Speaker 6: and in this sense that all the all the media

1316
01:08:37,840 --> 01:08:41,560
Speaker 6: reported that this was going to be a landslide victory,

1317
01:08:41,960 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 6: even the exit polls reported that this was going to

1318
01:08:45,479 --> 01:08:47,639
Speaker 6: be a landslide.

1319
01:08:47,120 --> 01:08:50,920
Speaker 5: Didn't upholster sort of cry on TV as a sort

1320
01:08:50,960 --> 01:08:53,160
Speaker 5: of yeah, like I said, it was really shocking to

1321
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:53,840
Speaker 5: the industry, yea.

1322
01:08:53,920 --> 01:08:55,639
Speaker 6: And but a lot of it, a lot of that

1323
01:08:55,880 --> 01:09:00,760
Speaker 6: was the media, even the Western media is so intimidated

1324
01:09:00,760 --> 01:09:05,800
Speaker 6: by Modi that they're like, it's it's one thing if

1325
01:09:05,800 --> 01:09:09,240
Speaker 6: you're like an intimidating boss and the people around you,

1326
01:09:09,240 --> 01:09:10,800
Speaker 6: you know, don't want to give you bad news, like

1327
01:09:10,800 --> 01:09:16,080
Speaker 6: we're all familiar exactly, it's just sorry, boss ratings down,

1328
01:09:16,880 --> 01:09:18,960
Speaker 6: nobody wants to give you know, He's the kind of

1329
01:09:18,960 --> 01:09:22,760
Speaker 6: boss that nobody wants to give bad news to. Yes, right,

1330
01:09:22,800 --> 01:09:26,479
Speaker 6: but that that extends to for Mody, that extends even

1331
01:09:26,520 --> 01:09:30,320
Speaker 6: to like the Western press that uh, certainly the ones

1332
01:09:30,360 --> 01:09:34,320
Speaker 6: that operate within India that uh, they don't want to

1333
01:09:34,360 --> 01:09:38,160
Speaker 6: become kind of victims of his state repression and so

1334
01:09:38,280 --> 01:09:41,040
Speaker 6: they're like, oh yeah, boss, Like polls are great for you,

1335
01:09:41,479 --> 01:09:44,720
Speaker 6: exit polls are incredible. Nobody was willing to kind of

1336
01:09:44,760 --> 01:09:47,200
Speaker 6: take There was a few commentators that were willing to

1337
01:09:47,200 --> 01:09:48,719
Speaker 6: take a risk, and they deserve a lot of credit,

1338
01:09:49,760 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 6: but nobody was willing to say, you know what, actually,

1339
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 6: I don't think people like what you're doing here, and

1340
01:09:53,160 --> 01:09:54,559
Speaker 6: I don't think you're going to do very well.

1341
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:56,160
Speaker 3: And to India's.

1342
01:09:55,760 --> 01:10:01,280
Speaker 6: Electoral you know, structural credit. When people voted against Modi,

1343
01:10:01,680 --> 01:10:05,000
Speaker 6: those votes were counted and those votes were reported. So

1344
01:10:05,560 --> 01:10:08,679
Speaker 6: that's which is not what happened in Pakistan and it's

1345
01:10:08,680 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 6: not what happens in some other countries.

1346
01:10:10,280 --> 01:10:12,760
Speaker 3: So good for India for that.

1347
01:10:13,120 --> 01:10:15,000
Speaker 5: And just one last point I'm reading from the Reuter's

1348
01:10:15,000 --> 01:10:18,200
Speaker 5: report on all of this. Investors had cheered the prospects

1349
01:10:18,240 --> 01:10:20,920
Speaker 5: of another Modi term, expecting it to deliver further years

1350
01:10:20,920 --> 01:10:23,160
Speaker 5: of strong economic growth and pro business reforms, but the

1351
01:10:23,160 --> 01:10:25,479
Speaker 5: margin of victory emerged as a worry during the counting.

1352
01:10:25,840 --> 01:10:27,040
Speaker 4: This quote is so interesting.

1353
01:10:27,080 --> 01:10:30,639
Speaker 5: The key question is whether BJP can retain single party majority.

1354
01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:32,719
Speaker 5: If not, then would its coalition be able to deliver

1355
01:10:32,800 --> 01:10:37,439
Speaker 5: economic development, particularly infrastructure ran The person who asked that

1356
01:10:37,520 --> 01:10:40,280
Speaker 5: question in Routers is Ken Peng, head of Investment Strategy

1357
01:10:40,280 --> 01:10:44,759
Speaker 5: Asia at City Global Wealth in Singapore. So markets were

1358
01:10:44,920 --> 01:10:48,040
Speaker 5: really looking forward to another just sort of decisive Modi

1359
01:10:48,160 --> 01:10:50,160
Speaker 5: victory seemed to be following the polling.

1360
01:10:50,200 --> 01:10:51,640
Speaker 4: I mean, I guess what else they could do? What

1361
01:10:51,760 --> 01:10:54,439
Speaker 4: else could they do? And are now wondering where the

1362
01:10:54,479 --> 01:10:56,160
Speaker 4: economy goes in India.

1363
01:10:56,360 --> 01:10:59,120
Speaker 6: Yeah, And a good way to gauge whether or not

1364
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:01,240
Speaker 6: you should be happy about the results of an election

1365
01:11:01,680 --> 01:11:05,559
Speaker 6: is if the market is upset about it, like whatever,

1366
01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:07,799
Speaker 6: whatever the opposite reaction of the market is. And we're

1367
01:11:07,800 --> 01:11:10,479
Speaker 6: going to talk about Mexico in a second. Markets very

1368
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:14,040
Speaker 6: much did not like the results of the Mexican election.

1369
01:11:14,080 --> 01:11:17,280
Speaker 6: Needed to David from so it probably means it's probably

1370
01:11:17,320 --> 01:11:18,759
Speaker 6: a good thing for Mexico.

1371
01:11:19,080 --> 01:11:20,120
Speaker 4: Where we get to that though.

1372
01:11:20,479 --> 01:11:25,439
Speaker 6: Yeah, South Africa, for this is fascinating, curious for your

1373
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:27,880
Speaker 6: take on this. So the the African National Congress A

1374
01:11:27,960 --> 01:11:31,519
Speaker 6: and C which led Africa out of apartheid, is you know,

1375
01:11:31,920 --> 01:11:35,800
Speaker 6: falling short of a majority for the first time in

1376
01:11:35,920 --> 01:11:41,240
Speaker 6: three decades. They'll probably be able to cobble together a coalition, uh,

1377
01:11:41,880 --> 01:11:43,200
Speaker 6: in order to stay in power.

1378
01:11:43,240 --> 01:11:45,160
Speaker 3: We'll see how We'll see how that goes.

1379
01:11:46,680 --> 01:11:49,479
Speaker 6: But what's what's interesting here is that I think you

1380
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:54,880
Speaker 6: see a similar thing. The economy and in South Africa

1381
01:11:54,920 --> 01:11:59,520
Speaker 6: is a complete mess, just absolutely massive unemployment and.

1382
01:11:59,360 --> 01:12:01,880
Speaker 3: You know, our outages are just.

1383
01:12:03,320 --> 01:12:07,920
Speaker 6: Are are omni present and really rock the economy. And

1384
01:12:08,240 --> 01:12:11,120
Speaker 6: my take on you know, how this all happened basically

1385
01:12:11,240 --> 01:12:14,840
Speaker 6: is so after the after the ANC takes power, you

1386
01:12:14,920 --> 01:12:18,320
Speaker 6: have basically all of the wealth in white hands and

1387
01:12:18,479 --> 01:12:21,559
Speaker 6: which are also that's also the one percent. But it's

1388
01:12:21,640 --> 01:12:25,520
Speaker 6: kind of hard to extricate those two things in an

1389
01:12:25,560 --> 01:12:27,439
Speaker 6: immediately post apartheid society.

1390
01:12:27,800 --> 01:12:29,400
Speaker 3: The ANC had was a.

1391
01:12:29,280 --> 01:12:32,880
Speaker 6: Broad coalition of a lot of different kind of political interests,

1392
01:12:33,160 --> 01:12:35,439
Speaker 6: but was generally pretty left wing and had a lot

1393
01:12:35,439 --> 01:12:38,040
Speaker 6: of and you know, it's it's muscle was really communists

1394
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:43,120
Speaker 6: and socialists, and so the the one percent was very

1395
01:12:43,160 --> 01:12:48,160
Speaker 6: concerned that the broader agenda of socialism was going to

1396
01:12:48,200 --> 01:12:52,040
Speaker 6: be accomplished in South Africa, which or even the modest

1397
01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:56,360
Speaker 6: agenda of you know, nationalizing you know, major major industries

1398
01:12:56,400 --> 01:13:00,280
Speaker 6: and then distributing the resources down down to the people.

1399
01:13:00,280 --> 01:13:02,479
Speaker 6: And so what they did is they came up with

1400
01:13:02,520 --> 01:13:09,240
Speaker 6: this system of basically diversifying the existing system. So they said,

1401
01:13:09,400 --> 01:13:11,519
Speaker 6: we don't need a new system, like let's stick with

1402
01:13:11,600 --> 01:13:14,920
Speaker 6: what we've got in apartheid, but let's make a color

1403
01:13:14,920 --> 01:13:18,320
Speaker 6: blind apartheid. And what they were able to do in

1404
01:13:18,400 --> 01:13:20,840
Speaker 6: color blind economic apartheid. And what they were able to

1405
01:13:20,880 --> 01:13:23,920
Speaker 6: do is, you know, past these past these laws that

1406
01:13:24,000 --> 01:13:25,519
Speaker 6: said you had to you know, that you were going

1407
01:13:25,560 --> 01:13:27,800
Speaker 6: to give a you know, it was affirmative action, like

1408
01:13:27,840 --> 01:13:32,000
Speaker 6: affirmative preference to black and other marginalized Indian and what

1409
01:13:32,000 --> 01:13:37,920
Speaker 6: they call colored populations in South Africa would have better

1410
01:13:37,960 --> 01:13:39,440
Speaker 6: access to government contracts.

1411
01:13:39,520 --> 01:13:42,519
Speaker 3: And also these private companies, you.

1412
01:13:42,479 --> 01:13:45,880
Speaker 6: Know, had to diversify their boards and diversify their ownership.

1413
01:13:45,880 --> 01:13:49,000
Speaker 6: And so what the companies very cleverly did is they

1414
01:13:49,040 --> 01:13:54,400
Speaker 6: went to these ANC power players and gave them shares

1415
01:13:55,680 --> 01:13:59,519
Speaker 6: effectively in these companies, and so they kind of bought

1416
01:13:59,560 --> 01:14:06,840
Speaker 6: the ANC leadership gradually into maintaining this this unequal economic

1417
01:14:06,920 --> 01:14:13,000
Speaker 6: system by bringing in just enough black South Africans so

1418
01:14:13,040 --> 01:14:15,479
Speaker 6: that it would be diversified. It's still only I think

1419
01:14:15,520 --> 01:14:18,639
Speaker 6: black ownership of the top company is still well below

1420
01:14:18,680 --> 01:14:22,080
Speaker 6: forty percent in a country where the black population is

1421
01:14:22,200 --> 01:14:26,000
Speaker 6: you know, close to over ninety percent. But what it

1422
01:14:26,040 --> 01:14:28,200
Speaker 6: did is it drained all the political will from the

1423
01:14:28,240 --> 01:14:34,240
Speaker 6: A and C leadership to radically restructure the economy. And

1424
01:14:34,280 --> 01:14:39,000
Speaker 6: it also introduced enormous amounts of corruption. And so South

1425
01:14:39,000 --> 01:14:43,080
Speaker 6: Africa now has like, you know, raging levels of corruption

1426
01:14:43,640 --> 01:14:46,960
Speaker 6: where you know, all of these different government assets are

1427
01:14:47,040 --> 01:14:49,960
Speaker 6: for sale. One reason you see, you know, you can't

1428
01:14:50,000 --> 01:14:52,519
Speaker 6: you can't unlink the all the all the power outages

1429
01:14:52,600 --> 01:14:57,120
Speaker 6: from this, like the depth of the corruption here. And

1430
01:14:57,160 --> 01:15:01,320
Speaker 6: so the opposition really ran on you know, social justice,

1431
01:15:01,360 --> 01:15:05,479
Speaker 6: economic justice and anti anti corruption, and you know, the

1432
01:15:05,479 --> 01:15:08,320
Speaker 6: the you know, hope hopefully the A and C hears that,

1433
01:15:08,479 --> 01:15:12,479
Speaker 6: because this is this is the population saying, you know,

1434
01:15:12,880 --> 01:15:16,320
Speaker 6: enough of this corruption, and if if they don't do

1435
01:15:16,360 --> 01:15:22,080
Speaker 6: a more kind of democratic socialist approach to this problem,

1436
01:15:22,880 --> 01:15:28,040
Speaker 6: what you're instead going to get is a purely kind

1437
01:15:28,080 --> 01:15:31,280
Speaker 6: of racist, reverse racist approach, Like you're going to have

1438
01:15:33,000 --> 01:15:37,160
Speaker 6: the kind of white population demonized and attacked and you're

1439
01:15:37,240 --> 01:15:41,439
Speaker 6: you see that a lot, and so like a reverse

1440
01:15:41,439 --> 01:15:45,800
Speaker 6: Trumpian kind of approach to it, and so like the art,

1441
01:15:46,080 --> 01:15:48,840
Speaker 6: you would want to make an argument of self preservation

1442
01:15:49,000 --> 01:15:53,000
Speaker 6: to these like white capitalists who thought that through corruption

1443
01:15:53,080 --> 01:15:55,640
Speaker 6: they could kind of just buy off their place in

1444
01:15:56,160 --> 01:16:00,360
Speaker 6: society rather than actually, you know, radically reforming this structure

1445
01:16:00,360 --> 01:16:03,360
Speaker 6: of society so that it can be more inclusive than

1446
01:16:03,400 --> 01:16:04,560
Speaker 6: everybody can participate.

1447
01:16:04,800 --> 01:16:05,719
Speaker 4: It's really interesting.

1448
01:16:05,920 --> 01:16:08,000
Speaker 6: You're really going to get it through the ballot box

1449
01:16:08,040 --> 01:16:11,000
Speaker 6: and through democratic socialism, or you're going to get it

1450
01:16:11,040 --> 01:16:11,960
Speaker 6: through pitchforks.

1451
01:16:12,520 --> 01:16:14,120
Speaker 5: The New York Times are in a really interesting op

1452
01:16:14,280 --> 01:16:17,280
Speaker 5: ed on this, and they quoted a girl kind of

1453
01:16:17,280 --> 01:16:19,360
Speaker 5: talking about her own parents who grew up, as The

1454
01:16:19,400 --> 01:16:22,719
Speaker 5: Times reports, on the Eastern Cape, who voted for ANC.

1455
01:16:23,240 --> 01:16:26,120
Speaker 5: This girl said, I think they fear racism and apartheid

1456
01:16:26,200 --> 01:16:29,160
Speaker 5: more than they fear poverty. This woman continued, if the

1457
01:16:29,200 --> 01:16:33,760
Speaker 5: ANC had sorted out infrastructure, policing, education, the fundamentals, I

1458
01:16:33,880 --> 01:16:36,360
Speaker 5: probably would have voted for them. So that's the generational

1459
01:16:36,360 --> 01:16:39,600
Speaker 5: difference between her and her parents. The Times notes in

1460
01:16:39,640 --> 01:16:42,960
Speaker 5: this opbed that a lot of people who are now

1461
01:16:43,040 --> 01:16:46,760
Speaker 5: voting don't they don't remember the formal apartheid system. We're

1462
01:16:46,760 --> 01:16:49,960
Speaker 5: actually born after it went away, which is a really

1463
01:16:49,960 --> 01:16:52,960
Speaker 5: interesting kind of generational divide and one that I just

1464
01:16:53,000 --> 01:16:55,880
Speaker 5: think so many countries where actually this is what we're

1465
01:16:55,880 --> 01:16:58,160
Speaker 5: going to talk about in the Mexico Bloc, are dealing

1466
01:16:58,200 --> 01:17:02,559
Speaker 5: with right now, that divide between old parties that used

1467
01:17:02,640 --> 01:17:06,760
Speaker 5: to not just be about the sort of meat and potatoes,

1468
01:17:06,800 --> 01:17:10,000
Speaker 5: but also used to have these kind of principled philosophical

1469
01:17:10,040 --> 01:17:17,720
Speaker 5: groundings now being riven over cultural questions and questions that

1470
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:21,360
Speaker 5: just strike not that there were obviously an seats like

1471
01:17:21,400 --> 01:17:24,240
Speaker 5: founded on cultural questions, but when you rule for a

1472
01:17:24,240 --> 01:17:29,240
Speaker 5: really long time, you can easily be sort of taken

1473
01:17:29,320 --> 01:17:33,960
Speaker 5: down these lines about what the sort of pocketbook issues

1474
01:17:34,000 --> 01:17:39,280
Speaker 5: are versus you know, whatever you're using to maintain your coalition,

1475
01:17:39,479 --> 01:17:42,160
Speaker 5: which is often not the meat and potato stuff.

1476
01:17:42,600 --> 01:17:45,800
Speaker 6: Yeah, and so you know, in both India and South

1477
01:17:45,840 --> 01:17:48,120
Speaker 6: Africa you see people kind of standing up for their

1478
01:17:48,840 --> 01:17:52,240
Speaker 6: for their economic rights, and in Mexico you see people

1479
01:17:53,479 --> 01:17:57,920
Speaker 6: rewarding the party that delivered them economic uplift.

1480
01:17:58,320 --> 01:17:59,519
Speaker 3: What's fascinating about them.

1481
01:18:00,040 --> 01:18:03,280
Speaker 6: What happened in Mexico is that the economy there hasn't

1482
01:18:03,320 --> 01:18:06,880
Speaker 6: really been growing significantly. It has been growing and it

1483
01:18:06,920 --> 01:18:11,200
Speaker 6: hasn't been collapsing, yeah yet by taxing the rich and

1484
01:18:11,479 --> 01:18:15,040
Speaker 6: with an inclusive kind of social economic policy and what

1485
01:18:15,240 --> 01:18:19,679
Speaker 6: was able to lift a huge number of Mexicans out

1486
01:18:19,680 --> 01:18:24,840
Speaker 6: of poverty and raise wages and then his party is

1487
01:18:25,520 --> 01:18:27,160
Speaker 6: rewarded for it as a result.

1488
01:18:27,840 --> 01:18:31,920
Speaker 5: Absolutely fascinating situation unfolding in Mexico. And we're going to

1489
01:18:31,960 --> 01:18:34,599
Speaker 5: talk to Juanda vid Rojas, who wrote about this for

1490
01:18:34,760 --> 01:18:39,120
Speaker 5: Compact magazine, just sort of breaking down Claudia Shanebaum's victory.

1491
01:18:39,360 --> 01:18:41,200
Speaker 5: And I'm excited to talk to talk to him Ryan

1492
01:18:41,360 --> 01:18:44,120
Speaker 5: because he was there in Mexico covering this as it happened.

1493
01:18:44,320 --> 01:18:46,520
Speaker 4: No surprise, huge landslide.

1494
01:18:46,560 --> 01:18:51,520
Speaker 5: She's the first female president of Mexico, although she herself

1495
01:18:51,600 --> 01:18:54,600
Speaker 5: isn't obsessed with that. But one of the big differences

1496
01:18:54,640 --> 01:18:58,439
Speaker 5: between her and Omlo is she is postured at least

1497
01:18:58,439 --> 01:19:01,680
Speaker 5: more towards that cultural per us of theme or the

1498
01:19:01,680 --> 01:19:04,719
Speaker 5: themes than Omlo ever did. In fact, Amla was extremely

1499
01:19:04,720 --> 01:19:08,040
Speaker 5: critical of feminism. He had some really interesting, you know

1500
01:19:08,160 --> 01:19:12,400
Speaker 5: rants in different directions. People say he's basically still going

1501
01:19:12,439 --> 01:19:15,160
Speaker 5: to be the president because he's always been close with Shanebaum.

1502
01:19:15,640 --> 01:19:19,000
Speaker 5: That you know, Amlo who's had this difficult relationship with Biden.

1503
01:19:19,040 --> 01:19:21,800
Speaker 5: Actually had a better relationship with the border hawk Trump

1504
01:19:21,920 --> 01:19:23,800
Speaker 5: than he ever did with Joe Biden. They seem to

1505
01:19:23,840 --> 01:19:26,360
Speaker 5: have strict some deal since January, although we still don't

1506
01:19:26,400 --> 01:19:30,320
Speaker 5: know exactly what it is where Mexico is cracking down

1507
01:19:30,520 --> 01:19:35,320
Speaker 5: on like Labastia, the train that was carrying migrants, you know,

1508
01:19:35,360 --> 01:19:39,559
Speaker 5: south and north towards the border. So Shane Baum, though,

1509
01:19:40,360 --> 01:19:42,880
Speaker 5: probably the biggest difference between those two is there's that

1510
01:19:43,000 --> 01:19:47,760
Speaker 5: economic populism nationalism, coupling economic populism with nationalism in a

1511
01:19:47,760 --> 01:19:48,799
Speaker 5: really interesting way.

1512
01:19:48,600 --> 01:19:51,080
Speaker 4: Like Omlo did doubling minimum wage.

1513
01:19:51,760 --> 01:19:55,280
Speaker 5: Huge increases are huge decreases in the poverty rate in Mexico.

1514
01:19:55,400 --> 01:19:59,080
Speaker 5: They're rewarded with a massive margin in the presidential election. Here,

1515
01:19:59,360 --> 01:20:01,720
Speaker 5: we'll see if you is able to maintain that she

1516
01:20:01,800 --> 01:20:02,880
Speaker 5: seems to be wanting to.

1517
01:20:03,000 --> 01:20:03,559
Speaker 4: You know, it wasn't.

1518
01:20:03,800 --> 01:20:06,000
Speaker 5: Her speech wasn't full of sort of like you win

1519
01:20:06,120 --> 01:20:10,120
Speaker 5: world economic platitudes, foreign platitudes in any.

1520
01:20:10,000 --> 01:20:12,799
Speaker 3: Way, whatso responding to her the way they are.

1521
01:20:12,680 --> 01:20:15,640
Speaker 5: If it was, no, So let's bring in Juan da

1522
01:20:15,720 --> 01:20:21,120
Speaker 5: Vid and talk about Claudia Shanebaum for more on the

1523
01:20:21,200 --> 01:20:24,240
Speaker 5: Mexican elections. We are joined now by Juan Da Vid Rojas.

1524
01:20:24,280 --> 01:20:26,559
Speaker 5: He is a columnist at Compact. He was also in

1525
01:20:26,720 --> 01:20:29,680
Speaker 5: Mexico covering this on the ground. Juanda Vid, thanks for

1526
01:20:29,760 --> 01:20:30,240
Speaker 5: joining us.

1527
01:20:30,920 --> 01:20:32,840
Speaker 11: Thanks for having me on, guys, big fan of the show.

1528
01:20:33,439 --> 01:20:35,519
Speaker 5: Well absolutely, I read your work all the time. Jan

1529
01:20:35,560 --> 01:20:37,320
Speaker 5: Da Vid, and I want to ask you. You wrote

1530
01:20:37,360 --> 01:20:39,200
Speaker 5: a great piece on this for Compact. Let's put E

1531
01:20:39,320 --> 01:20:42,679
Speaker 5: one up on the screen. Mexico's political revolution. You sort

1532
01:20:42,680 --> 01:20:47,360
Speaker 5: of broke down the economic nationalism that Claudia Shanebaum will

1533
01:20:47,479 --> 01:20:51,799
Speaker 5: likely continue from OMLO. Obviously they have been very close,

1534
01:20:52,240 --> 01:20:58,280
Speaker 5: fascinating a dynamic between nationalism and populism in Mexico right now,

1535
01:20:58,400 --> 01:21:01,360
Speaker 5: whether it's OMLO or Shane Bam. Tell us first a

1536
01:21:01,360 --> 01:21:03,759
Speaker 5: little bit about what you saw when you were covering

1537
01:21:03,760 --> 01:21:05,840
Speaker 5: the election down in Mexico the last week.

1538
01:21:06,240 --> 01:21:08,919
Speaker 11: Yeah, I mean it was just a stunning victory.

1539
01:21:09,000 --> 01:21:12,960
Speaker 15: I haven't seen anything like it for an incumbent leftist

1540
01:21:13,360 --> 01:21:18,000
Speaker 15: populist government. I mean, it's by far the most successful

1541
01:21:18,160 --> 01:21:20,679
Speaker 15: left government I've seen in ten years.

1542
01:21:20,760 --> 01:21:24,479
Speaker 5: I'd probably and tell us a little bit more about why,

1543
01:21:24,960 --> 01:21:27,120
Speaker 5: because Ryan and I were just talking earlier. I think

1544
01:21:27,160 --> 01:21:30,960
Speaker 5: a lot of folks probably misunderstand exactly what it is

1545
01:21:31,000 --> 01:21:34,880
Speaker 5: that attracts so many voters to OMLO and to Shane

1546
01:21:34,960 --> 01:21:36,240
Speaker 5: Baum and their party.

1547
01:21:36,479 --> 01:21:37,280
Speaker 4: What have they done?

1548
01:21:38,160 --> 01:21:40,400
Speaker 5: Especially you know, people look at the top line economic

1549
01:21:40,520 --> 01:21:42,920
Speaker 5: numbers out of Mexico, I maybe don't realize what that

1550
01:21:42,960 --> 01:21:45,639
Speaker 5: means for an average Mexican who went to the polls

1551
01:21:45,680 --> 01:21:46,240
Speaker 5: on Sunday.

1552
01:21:47,439 --> 01:21:52,200
Speaker 15: So for decades, GDP growth in Mexico has been really stagnant.

1553
01:21:52,200 --> 01:21:54,280
Speaker 15: It around one to two percent, and that hasn't really

1554
01:21:54,360 --> 01:21:57,719
Speaker 15: changed in recent years because near shoring it's gotten better.

1555
01:21:57,760 --> 01:22:01,439
Speaker 15: But what changed under OMLO is that wages really started

1556
01:22:01,479 --> 01:22:05,720
Speaker 15: to improve. The government every year gave these huge increases

1557
01:22:05,720 --> 01:22:10,280
Speaker 15: around twenty percent to the minimum wage. They also ban subcontracting,

1558
01:22:10,280 --> 01:22:13,479
Speaker 15: which is a way to avoid paying workers' benefits, which

1559
01:22:13,520 --> 01:22:15,720
Speaker 15: is actually insane in Mexico when you consider the fact

1560
01:22:15,760 --> 01:22:19,360
Speaker 15: that only around half of the population has formal work.

1561
01:22:19,640 --> 01:22:23,640
Speaker 15: Informality is extremely high. And the results that we can

1562
01:22:23,680 --> 01:22:26,479
Speaker 15: see is that during the course of the six year term,

1563
01:22:26,520 --> 01:22:29,120
Speaker 15: wages have gone up thirty five percent, so much so

1564
01:22:29,280 --> 01:22:34,360
Speaker 15: that even informal workers wages have risen. At the same time,

1565
01:22:34,439 --> 01:22:38,160
Speaker 15: the president is a really idiosyncratic figure. He's seen as

1566
01:22:38,200 --> 01:22:42,959
Speaker 15: also sharing the values of ordinary Mexicans. He's a leftist,

1567
01:22:43,160 --> 01:22:46,120
Speaker 15: but in a lot of ways he's very traditionalist and

1568
01:22:46,240 --> 01:22:50,240
Speaker 15: socially conservative. People not only see that their lives have improved,

1569
01:22:50,240 --> 01:22:52,599
Speaker 15: this is someone looking out for them, but also shares their.

1570
01:22:52,560 --> 01:22:56,400
Speaker 3: Values, and so Juan de vide four decades.

1571
01:22:56,479 --> 01:23:01,280
Speaker 6: You know, Mexico was a one party state, and elites

1572
01:23:01,280 --> 01:23:03,840
Speaker 6: here in the United States seem to have absolutely no

1573
01:23:03,920 --> 01:23:08,880
Speaker 6: problem with the pri you know, just running Mexico top

1574
01:23:08,920 --> 01:23:13,880
Speaker 6: top to bottom. Wages famously were extremely low. Now you

1575
01:23:13,960 --> 01:23:16,320
Speaker 6: have wages growing, and you have a lot of the

1576
01:23:16,439 --> 01:23:20,120
Speaker 6: kind of the Atlantic and other kind of elite institutions

1577
01:23:20,120 --> 01:23:23,240
Speaker 6: here in the United States panicking and saying, oh no, now,

1578
01:23:23,240 --> 01:23:24,960
Speaker 6: we're not going to have democracy anymore. It's a one

1579
01:23:24,960 --> 01:23:27,959
Speaker 6: party state. Like she won by too much, she's too popular.

1580
01:23:28,760 --> 01:23:32,800
Speaker 6: So but the only difference as actually much more competitive

1581
01:23:33,280 --> 01:23:37,000
Speaker 6: today than it was under one party pr rule seems

1582
01:23:37,040 --> 01:23:39,599
Speaker 6: to be wage growth. Like is it is it wage

1583
01:23:39,600 --> 01:23:42,880
Speaker 6: growth in Mexico that actually has people sel upset here

1584
01:23:42,880 --> 01:23:43,719
Speaker 6: in the United States?

1585
01:23:44,840 --> 01:23:45,880
Speaker 11: Very possibly.

1586
01:23:45,920 --> 01:23:48,479
Speaker 15: There's this great graph that I've referred to that you

1587
01:23:48,479 --> 01:23:52,560
Speaker 15: look at the wage over time in Mexico. In the seventies,

1588
01:23:52,760 --> 01:23:56,080
Speaker 15: Mexico was a pretty prosperous country off of the oil

1589
01:23:56,120 --> 01:23:58,800
Speaker 15: boom and following the debt crisis in the eighties and

1590
01:23:58,840 --> 01:24:02,679
Speaker 15: the nineties, there's deliberate decisions to press wages and stop

1591
01:24:02,800 --> 01:24:05,920
Speaker 15: letting the stop raising them in their own wage Well,

1592
01:24:06,000 --> 01:24:07,000
Speaker 15: you have to figure this is.

1593
01:24:06,960 --> 01:24:09,800
Speaker 11: Also around the nineties they enacted and AFT to. It

1594
01:24:09,800 --> 01:24:10,599
Speaker 11: makes a lot of sense.

1595
01:24:10,640 --> 01:24:14,200
Speaker 15: You want those low wages because you're stealing all of

1596
01:24:14,200 --> 01:24:18,679
Speaker 15: the industry from the US, all that manufacturing industry. Shane

1597
01:24:18,760 --> 01:24:21,760
Speaker 15: Boh won with around six fifty nine sixty percent of

1598
01:24:21,760 --> 01:24:22,160
Speaker 15: the vote.

1599
01:24:22,160 --> 01:24:23,920
Speaker 11: It's an incredible victory. They won.

1600
01:24:25,320 --> 01:24:29,240
Speaker 15: The Mona Party won seven out of nine governorships, all

1601
01:24:29,280 --> 01:24:32,479
Speaker 15: but every and shameeb One went in all but all

1602
01:24:32,479 --> 01:24:37,880
Speaker 15: but one state. You're gonna hear the words democratic and

1603
01:24:38,000 --> 01:24:40,400
Speaker 15: backsliding and a lot of the next few months. Why

1604
01:24:40,439 --> 01:24:45,120
Speaker 15: it's really interesting the Congress actually the next Congress actually

1605
01:24:45,200 --> 01:24:48,680
Speaker 15: starts one month before Obradoor leaves office, and so the

1606
01:24:48,720 --> 01:24:52,160
Speaker 15: markets are going insane. The PESO dropped around six percent

1607
01:24:52,439 --> 01:24:54,559
Speaker 15: because they're really scared that they're going to be able

1608
01:24:54,600 --> 01:24:58,080
Speaker 15: to pass all these constitutional reforms that they promised that

1609
01:24:58,200 --> 01:25:02,080
Speaker 15: were previously seen as just these unrealistic campaign proposals.

1610
01:25:02,320 --> 01:25:04,479
Speaker 6: Well, yeah, what kind of stuff, Like what are we

1611
01:25:04,560 --> 01:25:08,320
Speaker 6: likely to see in this month of September where you know,

1612
01:25:08,800 --> 01:25:10,080
Speaker 6: he's still in office.

1613
01:25:10,120 --> 01:25:11,759
Speaker 3: But they'll have close to a super majority.

1614
01:25:11,760 --> 01:25:14,559
Speaker 6: I guess they'll have a super majority in the lower Chamber,

1615
01:25:14,600 --> 01:25:16,200
Speaker 6: and then in the Upper Chamber they'll have to like

1616
01:25:16,240 --> 01:25:18,040
Speaker 6: pick off a few pri people to get a.

1617
01:25:17,960 --> 01:25:20,880
Speaker 15: Super Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. They really are just clientealists.

1618
01:25:20,920 --> 01:25:23,000
Speaker 15: They have no ideology. All they care about is money.

1619
01:25:23,120 --> 01:25:25,840
Speaker 15: They're four seats short in the Senate, but in the

1620
01:25:26,040 --> 01:25:29,519
Speaker 15: Chamber of Deputies they have a supermajority, so it's actually

1621
01:25:29,560 --> 01:25:32,040
Speaker 15: pretty realistic they could pass some of these reforms.

1622
01:25:32,720 --> 01:25:33,960
Speaker 11: Some of them are pretty benign.

1623
01:25:34,280 --> 01:25:35,960
Speaker 15: One that I love to refer to is that they

1624
01:25:36,000 --> 01:25:41,360
Speaker 15: want to constitutionally ban babing, which is something that libertarians

1625
01:25:41,400 --> 01:25:44,880
Speaker 15: really would hate. On the other hand, the most controversial

1626
01:25:44,920 --> 01:25:47,160
Speaker 15: one I would say is they want to directly elect judges,

1627
01:25:47,200 --> 01:25:51,840
Speaker 15: including Supreme Court judges, and all. Be honest, I have

1628
01:25:51,960 --> 01:25:55,679
Speaker 15: different feelings about it. It doesn't terrify me, but sure,

1629
01:25:55,720 --> 01:26:00,479
Speaker 15: I guess it could lead to more politicization and long run,

1630
01:26:00,640 --> 01:26:02,800
Speaker 15: I mean, for a lot of American professors, I'm sure

1631
01:26:02,800 --> 01:26:04,280
Speaker 15: they see that and think.

1632
01:26:04,120 --> 01:26:08,360
Speaker 11: Oh wow, that would be incredible. But what else they.

1633
01:26:10,040 --> 01:26:12,960
Speaker 15: Want to make it a constitutional amendment to the minimal

1634
01:26:13,000 --> 01:26:15,280
Speaker 15: wage has to always be raised more than inflation.

1635
01:26:17,200 --> 01:26:19,960
Speaker 6: Yeah, and they want to put some of the cash

1636
01:26:20,000 --> 01:26:22,360
Speaker 6: transfers right into the constitution or something right.

1637
01:26:22,439 --> 01:26:25,280
Speaker 15: Yeah, a lot of that basically codifying a lot of

1638
01:26:27,439 --> 01:26:31,360
Speaker 15: the laws that were seeing during the past six years.

1639
01:26:32,040 --> 01:26:34,920
Speaker 5: So let's talk a little bit about we can put

1640
01:26:34,920 --> 01:26:37,760
Speaker 5: this next element up on the screen, the violence that

1641
01:26:37,880 --> 01:26:40,360
Speaker 5: surrounded this cycle in Mexico.

1642
01:26:40,680 --> 01:26:42,120
Speaker 4: And again wand Devide was just there.

1643
01:26:42,200 --> 01:26:45,120
Speaker 5: So women may are shot dead in Mexico day after

1644
01:26:45,200 --> 01:26:47,400
Speaker 5: Claudia Shanebaum's historic presidential win.

1645
01:26:47,520 --> 01:26:48,960
Speaker 4: That's from CBS News.

1646
01:26:49,600 --> 01:26:53,160
Speaker 5: They were over thirty, by some counts assassinations over the

1647
01:26:53,160 --> 01:26:55,439
Speaker 5: course just of the cycle. But Wandavid, one of the

1648
01:26:55,439 --> 01:26:58,720
Speaker 5: things you're reporting makes very clear is that violence in

1649
01:26:58,800 --> 01:27:02,960
Speaker 5: Mexico well serious, also concentrated and isolated basically in different

1650
01:27:02,960 --> 01:27:03,639
Speaker 5: parts of the country.

1651
01:27:03,680 --> 01:27:05,120
Speaker 4: So if you're in Yucaton it's one thing.

1652
01:27:05,960 --> 01:27:09,080
Speaker 5: If you're you know, in Tamalipas, it's another thing. Can

1653
01:27:09,120 --> 01:27:12,040
Speaker 5: you talk to us just a little bit about that.

1654
01:27:12,520 --> 01:27:16,240
Speaker 5: And also in the context of Eve and I talked

1655
01:27:16,280 --> 01:27:19,960
Speaker 5: actually on a podcast last week about allegations of.

1656
01:27:20,800 --> 01:27:22,200
Speaker 4: Tomlow's should check it out.

1657
01:27:22,560 --> 01:27:29,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, Amla's relationship with Sinaloa, the allegations surrounding Omlala's relationship

1658
01:27:29,080 --> 01:27:32,880
Speaker 5: with Sinaloa. Obviously, Shanebaum doesn't come in with any of

1659
01:27:32,920 --> 01:27:36,960
Speaker 5: those any of that bagage necessarily other than her affiliation

1660
01:27:37,040 --> 01:27:39,200
Speaker 5: with OMLO. So maybe you could break down just a

1661
01:27:39,240 --> 01:27:43,479
Speaker 5: little bit about what's going on with organized crime in

1662
01:27:43,520 --> 01:27:44,519
Speaker 5: this cycle and beyond.

1663
01:27:44,880 --> 01:27:48,800
Speaker 15: So, Mexico is a gigantic country, so as a population

1664
01:27:48,920 --> 01:27:51,400
Speaker 15: of one hundred and ten one hundred and twenty million,

1665
01:27:51,840 --> 01:27:54,719
Speaker 15: the thirty odd states, so there's a lot of variety.

1666
01:27:54,760 --> 01:27:58,520
Speaker 15: I was only in Mexico City, and I was actually surprised.

1667
01:27:58,640 --> 01:28:01,160
Speaker 15: I've been to a lot of American countries and Latin

1668
01:28:01,200 --> 01:28:05,080
Speaker 15: American cities. Mexico City I found to be extraordinarily safe.

1669
01:28:05,120 --> 01:28:08,040
Speaker 15: You see a lot of people with their cell phones

1670
01:28:08,080 --> 01:28:10,480
Speaker 15: out of there's a ton of tourists.

1671
01:28:10,120 --> 01:28:11,400
Speaker 11: And a lot of the countries like that.

1672
01:28:11,439 --> 01:28:14,439
Speaker 15: Obviously, there are loads and loads of tours from all

1673
01:28:14,479 --> 01:28:16,000
Speaker 15: over the world, especially from the US.

1674
01:28:16,560 --> 01:28:18,040
Speaker 11: That is different states.

1675
01:28:18,439 --> 01:28:21,680
Speaker 15: Obviously it's not all Afghanistan, but there are states that

1676
01:28:21,720 --> 01:28:29,200
Speaker 15: are extraordinarily violent. You see incredible rates of kidnappings, yeah,

1677
01:28:29,320 --> 01:28:32,000
Speaker 15: cartel attacks and stuff like that. The data is mixed

1678
01:28:32,040 --> 01:28:34,280
Speaker 15: and there's a lot of scrutiny over it. The government

1679
01:28:34,280 --> 01:28:36,960
Speaker 15: says one thing, critics say another. You could do this,

1680
01:28:37,040 --> 01:28:40,080
Speaker 15: but just about any country, honestly, but at minimum, yeah,

1681
01:28:40,080 --> 01:28:43,840
Speaker 15: we can definitely say that a lot of places within

1682
01:28:43,920 --> 01:28:46,880
Speaker 15: Mexico are very dangerous, but others less.

1683
01:28:46,920 --> 01:28:48,240
Speaker 11: So there's a lot of variety.

1684
01:28:48,800 --> 01:28:53,479
Speaker 15: As for the allegations against the locals overdoor, they're really

1685
01:28:53,479 --> 01:28:56,240
Speaker 15: I've referred to them as overdoors Russia Gate.

1686
01:28:56,960 --> 01:28:59,680
Speaker 11: Why they're plausible, But.

1687
01:29:00,640 --> 01:29:02,880
Speaker 15: You could say the same thing about Russia Gate. Is

1688
01:29:02,920 --> 01:29:08,080
Speaker 15: it possible that the Trump campaign colluded with the Russians. Sure,

1689
01:29:08,120 --> 01:29:11,360
Speaker 15: it's believable, but there was just no concrete proof.

1690
01:29:11,520 --> 01:29:13,120
Speaker 11: Same thing in the case of OMLO.

1691
01:29:13,720 --> 01:29:16,679
Speaker 15: But yeah, a lot of Mexican presidents and Latin American

1692
01:29:16,720 --> 01:29:20,320
Speaker 15: presidents have had dirty dealings with cartels, but there's just

1693
01:29:20,360 --> 01:29:23,639
Speaker 15: no concrete proof. The allegations that came from Pro Publica

1694
01:29:24,200 --> 01:29:28,120
Speaker 15: and The New York Times had no solid evidence behind them,

1695
01:29:28,120 --> 01:29:30,479
Speaker 15: so much so that an XDA agent came out and

1696
01:29:30,520 --> 01:29:32,760
Speaker 15: said it was probably just a hit piece because the

1697
01:29:32,840 --> 01:29:35,520
Speaker 15: agency hates Omlo's.

1698
01:29:35,080 --> 01:29:36,799
Speaker 11: Guts and something.

1699
01:29:36,840 --> 01:29:39,599
Speaker 15: This is a good reason because his security policy is

1700
01:29:39,720 --> 01:29:40,600
Speaker 15: very controversial.

1701
01:29:41,400 --> 01:29:44,320
Speaker 5: Sure, and does Shane Bam then come to the table

1702
01:29:44,360 --> 01:29:46,280
Speaker 5: with any of that baggage when you have United States

1703
01:29:46,320 --> 01:29:49,360
Speaker 5: media reporting in that way, what does that mean for her?

1704
01:29:49,439 --> 01:29:52,640
Speaker 11: Basically, Yeah, she'll definitely have that baggage.

1705
01:29:52,680 --> 01:29:55,120
Speaker 15: I mean, I haven't seen anything that ties her to

1706
01:29:55,160 --> 01:29:58,519
Speaker 15: the allegations. And because she was mayor of Mexico City,

1707
01:29:58,960 --> 01:30:01,599
Speaker 15: the big cartels have as much of a presence there,

1708
01:30:02,000 --> 01:30:02,960
Speaker 15: she should be fine.

1709
01:30:03,040 --> 01:30:05,559
Speaker 11: Who knows. It'll really depend I'd.

1710
01:30:05,360 --> 01:30:09,559
Speaker 15: Say on whether she continues a similar more lax approach

1711
01:30:09,640 --> 01:30:14,080
Speaker 15: that has been criticized of the current administration, and we'd

1712
01:30:14,080 --> 01:30:14,880
Speaker 15: probably see more.

1713
01:30:14,800 --> 01:30:18,120
Speaker 6: Scrutiny then and wanted to be She's also famously a

1714
01:30:18,160 --> 01:30:19,160
Speaker 6: climate scientist.

1715
01:30:20,280 --> 01:30:24,120
Speaker 3: Mexico City is said to run out of water.

1716
01:30:24,200 --> 01:30:27,320
Speaker 6: I believe June twenty sixth is supposed to be the

1717
01:30:27,400 --> 01:30:29,720
Speaker 6: day that if it doesn't rain between now and then,

1718
01:30:29,760 --> 01:30:33,200
Speaker 6: that the horrific drought that we've been seeing, combined with

1719
01:30:33,280 --> 01:30:36,160
Speaker 6: the heat dome that Mexico has been suffering under the

1720
01:30:36,200 --> 01:30:39,360
Speaker 6: last couple of weeks. Literally we're talking about running out

1721
01:30:39,360 --> 01:30:41,200
Speaker 6: of water in major parts of Mexico City, not the

1722
01:30:41,280 --> 01:30:46,719
Speaker 6: richest parts, apparently but what does that mean Mexico City's

1723
01:30:46,720 --> 01:30:46,920
Speaker 6: going to.

1724
01:30:47,000 --> 01:30:47,599
Speaker 3: Run out of water?

1725
01:30:48,120 --> 01:30:52,720
Speaker 6: And what it seems like Mexico is had, you know,

1726
01:30:53,160 --> 01:30:55,320
Speaker 6: has the best person they could possibly have for the job,

1727
01:30:55,400 --> 01:30:58,200
Speaker 6: the former mayor of Mexico City, you know, who is

1728
01:30:58,240 --> 01:31:03,000
Speaker 6: a climate scientist, now elevate to the highest office. But

1729
01:31:03,080 --> 01:31:05,400
Speaker 6: that's still not going to make it rain. Like, what

1730
01:31:05,600 --> 01:31:06,960
Speaker 6: is Mexico City going to do?

1731
01:31:08,200 --> 01:31:09,320
Speaker 11: Well? Not really sure.

1732
01:31:09,400 --> 01:31:12,439
Speaker 15: Yeah, while I was there, there was this huge heat

1733
01:31:12,479 --> 01:31:15,200
Speaker 15: wave all around the country, and in Mexico City is

1734
01:31:15,240 --> 01:31:18,240
Speaker 15: actually way above sea level, about two thousand odd meters

1735
01:31:18,240 --> 01:31:20,120
Speaker 15: above sea level, and it was very, very hot. They

1736
01:31:20,120 --> 01:31:25,439
Speaker 15: said that was very unusual. I'd read just glossed over

1737
01:31:25,600 --> 01:31:30,080
Speaker 15: that there had been some measures taken around the country.

1738
01:31:30,080 --> 01:31:33,240
Speaker 15: But I'll be completely honest, I was distracted by other

1739
01:31:33,280 --> 01:31:37,080
Speaker 15: things as far as Shinbaum's concerned. Of Yeah, she served

1740
01:31:37,120 --> 01:31:42,520
Speaker 15: on a UN climate panel. She studied physics and energy engineering.

1741
01:31:43,680 --> 01:31:46,639
Speaker 15: She's made a climate change of banner of her campaign,

1742
01:31:46,680 --> 01:31:51,160
Speaker 15: which is actually very different from the current administration, which

1743
01:31:51,760 --> 01:31:54,719
Speaker 15: has been criticized for not taking it as much action.

1744
01:31:54,760 --> 01:31:58,000
Speaker 15: There's been some expansion the solar panels and stuff like that,

1745
01:31:58,040 --> 01:32:00,280
Speaker 15: but almost a real pro oil guy.

1746
01:32:01,520 --> 01:32:03,919
Speaker 6: Well, yeah, go ahead, right, no, yeah, I mean currently,

1747
01:32:04,800 --> 01:32:09,080
Speaker 6: I think most of Mexico's water is used to make produce.

1748
01:32:08,680 --> 01:32:13,520
Speaker 3: That is then shipped up to us, and we think Mexico.

1749
01:32:13,680 --> 01:32:16,880
Speaker 15: There's always this big back and forth between Texas and

1750
01:32:17,000 --> 01:32:21,400
Speaker 15: I think it's the state of a Chihuahua. They're always

1751
01:32:21,520 --> 01:32:24,080
Speaker 15: hackling over the water in the area, which is we're

1752
01:32:24,120 --> 01:32:28,200
Speaker 15: seeing like over one hundred degree temperatures in the Northern States.

1753
01:32:29,000 --> 01:32:32,600
Speaker 5: And it raises this like super fascinating question about the

1754
01:32:32,640 --> 01:32:37,680
Speaker 5: divides between Omlo and Shane Bomb, because Omlo, for example,

1755
01:32:38,120 --> 01:32:40,840
Speaker 5: has had, you know, things to say about the feminist

1756
01:32:40,880 --> 01:32:44,040
Speaker 5: movement that aren't eagerly, that aren't easily categorized in one

1757
01:32:44,080 --> 01:32:46,559
Speaker 5: way or the other. Shane Bomb, on the other hand,

1758
01:32:46,600 --> 01:32:48,559
Speaker 5: as you mentioned, served being like a un climate panel,

1759
01:32:48,640 --> 01:32:52,720
Speaker 5: has been heralded, you know, not because she's pushed it,

1760
01:32:52,800 --> 01:32:56,879
Speaker 5: but as a sort of feminist champion, a champion women's values.

1761
01:32:56,960 --> 01:33:00,320
Speaker 5: I think she changed the uniform policy I think for

1762
01:33:00,320 --> 01:33:02,960
Speaker 5: schools in Mexico City right so that they would boys

1763
01:33:02,960 --> 01:33:05,840
Speaker 5: could wear one thing, girls could wear another thing, and

1764
01:33:05,920 --> 01:33:09,640
Speaker 5: has made kind of overtures towards cultural progressivism in a

1765
01:33:09,680 --> 01:33:11,439
Speaker 5: way that omeloan never did.

1766
01:33:12,360 --> 01:33:14,000
Speaker 4: So what are some of those.

1767
01:33:14,520 --> 01:33:17,080
Speaker 5: Differences in how do you expect Shane Baum, who hasn't

1768
01:33:17,160 --> 01:33:20,080
Speaker 5: made an effort to like really highlight them over the

1769
01:33:20,080 --> 01:33:22,720
Speaker 5: course of the campaign, at least from my interpretation of

1770
01:33:22,720 --> 01:33:24,639
Speaker 5: how it went, how do you expect those to continue

1771
01:33:24,680 --> 01:33:25,280
Speaker 5: going forward?

1772
01:33:26,000 --> 01:33:28,040
Speaker 11: That's a spot on analysis.

1773
01:33:28,400 --> 01:33:33,280
Speaker 15: I mean, during the campaign she basically just stood as

1774
01:33:33,479 --> 01:33:37,439
Speaker 15: close to Omlo as you possibly could refuse to criticize him.

1775
01:33:37,520 --> 01:33:40,439
Speaker 15: She yeah, she noted some differences that she wanted to

1776
01:33:40,760 --> 01:33:43,080
Speaker 15: invest a lot more in renewable energy, She wants some

1777
01:33:43,160 --> 01:33:48,440
Speaker 15: more state let approach, wants pemics to transition towards extracting lithium.

1778
01:33:48,600 --> 01:33:51,639
Speaker 15: Om laws will also created a state owned lithium company,

1779
01:33:51,680 --> 01:33:53,880
Speaker 15: but she wants she wants her to be a role

1780
01:33:53,960 --> 01:33:57,960
Speaker 15: for the private sector, but definitely wants a greater focus

1781
01:33:58,040 --> 01:34:04,760
Speaker 15: on renewables. And she's obviously much more conventionally progressive. I've

1782
01:34:04,800 --> 01:34:07,360
Speaker 15: had a I have a bullish case and a more

1783
01:34:07,360 --> 01:34:10,240
Speaker 15: pessimistic case as to the course she could take. We

1784
01:34:10,280 --> 01:34:13,480
Speaker 15: really won't know what happens until she takes office in October.

1785
01:34:14,120 --> 01:34:17,559
Speaker 15: If she sticks, if she, I think, no matter what,

1786
01:34:17,720 --> 01:34:21,479
Speaker 15: she will govern more like a conventional and progressive, and

1787
01:34:21,520 --> 01:34:24,320
Speaker 15: I think that will kind of cause a dormant or

1788
01:34:24,400 --> 01:34:28,960
Speaker 15: hibernating hard right in Mexico, which really remarkably doesn't exist.

1789
01:34:29,000 --> 01:34:31,160
Speaker 15: And I think you could chalk it up just to

1790
01:34:31,360 --> 01:34:35,920
Speaker 15: the current president. Their hard right will probably be a

1791
01:34:35,960 --> 01:34:38,439
Speaker 15: lot stronger in the mid terms or in twenty thirty.

1792
01:34:39,640 --> 01:34:43,240
Speaker 15: But so long as she keeps to the economic nationalism,

1793
01:34:43,320 --> 01:34:45,600
Speaker 15: the bread and butter issues, the stuff that really have

1794
01:34:45,720 --> 01:34:49,680
Speaker 15: changed people's lives. You just it's great because you talk

1795
01:34:49,760 --> 01:34:53,120
Speaker 15: to middle class people here in the US or in

1796
01:34:53,160 --> 01:34:56,639
Speaker 15: Mexico City, and they just hate this guy's guts. They

1797
01:34:56,680 --> 01:35:00,559
Speaker 15: think he's this demagogue, a charlatan who was full the people.

1798
01:35:00,600 --> 01:35:05,240
Speaker 15: They can't possibly Mexican media is incredible. There was this

1799
01:35:05,400 --> 01:35:08,479
Speaker 15: one famous commentary as saying that they didn't recognize all

1800
01:35:08,520 --> 01:35:09,559
Speaker 15: the things we did for them.

1801
01:35:09,560 --> 01:35:10,960
Speaker 11: We took away their change.

1802
01:35:10,720 --> 01:35:13,320
Speaker 15: And we gave them back democracy, and now they're not

1803
01:35:13,360 --> 01:35:14,200
Speaker 15: they're ungrateful.

1804
01:35:14,880 --> 01:35:17,559
Speaker 6: Well, we let them vote and now they're voting for

1805
01:35:17,640 --> 01:35:20,479
Speaker 6: the wrong people there exactly.

1806
01:35:20,560 --> 01:35:22,360
Speaker 11: It's really hilarious.

1807
01:35:22,439 --> 01:35:25,720
Speaker 15: But so long as they stick to those things, I

1808
01:35:25,760 --> 01:35:29,479
Speaker 15: think that Shameebaum should be successful. On the other hand,

1809
01:35:29,600 --> 01:35:34,800
Speaker 15: if she abandons the nationalism, the Mexican left is a

1810
01:35:34,920 --> 01:35:41,160
Speaker 15: really hardcore protectionalist to patriotic tradition, and if they stick

1811
01:35:41,200 --> 01:35:44,080
Speaker 15: to those things, I think that normal people will still

1812
01:35:44,120 --> 01:35:46,599
Speaker 15: see the government as really speaking for them.

1813
01:35:47,120 --> 01:35:52,599
Speaker 5: And Shaneban's parents actually were Jewish migrants to Mexico. They're

1814
01:35:52,600 --> 01:35:55,720
Speaker 5: from Lithuanian and Bulgaria, I believe, just like a really

1815
01:35:55,760 --> 01:35:58,200
Speaker 5: fascinating story. I have one more question for you one, Davide,

1816
01:35:58,240 --> 01:36:03,439
Speaker 5: is how do we Shane Baum's relationship with the Biden administration.

1817
01:36:02,960 --> 01:36:04,360
Speaker 4: To proceed similar to OMLO.

1818
01:36:04,520 --> 01:36:06,519
Speaker 5: I mean, we don't really know exactly what the Biden

1819
01:36:06,520 --> 01:36:08,800
Speaker 5: administration has worked out with OMLO when it comes to

1820
01:36:08,840 --> 01:36:11,080
Speaker 5: border crossings. We know that there's been a crackdown after

1821
01:36:11,120 --> 01:36:13,840
Speaker 5: there were meetings. I think this was back in January.

1822
01:36:13,920 --> 01:36:16,000
Speaker 5: So what can we expect from Shanebaum.

1823
01:36:17,200 --> 01:36:18,519
Speaker 11: Hopefully content?

1824
01:36:18,560 --> 01:36:21,479
Speaker 15: Well, I guess depending on your point of view, it

1825
01:36:21,560 --> 01:36:22,479
Speaker 15: could be good or bad.

1826
01:36:22,880 --> 01:36:24,519
Speaker 11: It's been you.

1827
01:36:24,439 --> 01:36:30,520
Speaker 15: Know, famously, Trump and Lopuz Obrador had this bizarrely good relationship.

1828
01:36:30,520 --> 01:36:32,880
Speaker 15: I wrote a whole piece about this called the OMLO

1829
01:36:33,000 --> 01:36:38,519
Speaker 15: Trump Romance in March. And on a personal level, but

1830
01:36:38,600 --> 01:36:43,400
Speaker 15: even on policy, uh, Trump and OMLO have a lot

1831
01:36:43,400 --> 01:36:47,200
Speaker 15: of similarities. They both hate the media. They're both protectionists,

1832
01:36:48,439 --> 01:36:52,520
Speaker 15: they're more traditionalists. I mean, you can question Trump's sincerity.

1833
01:36:52,560 --> 01:36:58,040
Speaker 15: I guess maybe Lopez Obradors too, but they supposedly got

1834
01:36:58,080 --> 01:37:00,280
Speaker 15: along from the moment they met, and they were really

1835
01:37:00,320 --> 01:37:04,479
Speaker 15: transactional figures. They had what a lot of analysts have

1836
01:37:04,600 --> 01:37:07,719
Speaker 15: described as this informal deal that the US wouldn't medal

1837
01:37:07,720 --> 01:37:11,320
Speaker 15: in Mexican affairs, would respect it its security and energy

1838
01:37:11,360 --> 01:37:15,400
Speaker 15: priorities as well, and in exchange, Mexico would agree to

1839
01:37:15,439 --> 01:37:19,560
Speaker 15: clamp down to migration. And to a lot of observers

1840
01:37:19,800 --> 01:37:23,639
Speaker 15: from both governments, that was extremely successful under Biden. It's

1841
01:37:23,720 --> 01:37:27,559
Speaker 15: actually been more checkered and so on immigration, well, the

1842
01:37:27,560 --> 01:37:32,679
Speaker 15: Biden administration has had its policy and that that's also

1843
01:37:32,800 --> 01:37:36,519
Speaker 15: altered things in Mexico City last year. As Emily mentioned,

1844
01:37:36,560 --> 01:37:40,960
Speaker 15: there's been this huge crackdown that's really driven down border crossings.

1845
01:37:41,800 --> 01:37:44,000
Speaker 15: I think that the current government wants to be seen

1846
01:37:44,040 --> 01:37:47,360
Speaker 15: as not favoring one side or the other as far

1847
01:37:47,400 --> 01:37:51,200
Speaker 15: as shame Bomb's concerned. One really good sign of pragmatism

1848
01:37:51,360 --> 01:37:53,640
Speaker 15: is just one thing. As I said when it was well,

1849
01:37:53,640 --> 01:37:57,000
Speaker 15: I have to wait so she gets sworn in one

1850
01:37:57,040 --> 01:38:00,280
Speaker 15: of her closest advisors. Ramonde Lafuente, who was a leave

1851
01:38:00,360 --> 01:38:06,519
Speaker 15: Mexico's ambassador to the UN, openly criticized US asylum policy,

1852
01:38:06,560 --> 01:38:09,000
Speaker 15: said it was an impediment to be able to bring

1853
01:38:09,040 --> 01:38:11,280
Speaker 15: down border crossings. I think that's a good sign of

1854
01:38:11,280 --> 01:38:16,240
Speaker 15: pragmatism on part of the administration. Interestingly, I'm not going

1855
01:38:16,280 --> 01:38:19,200
Speaker 15: to name names, but a friend of mine informed that another,

1856
01:38:20,640 --> 01:38:23,280
Speaker 15: actually an advisor I mentioned in the piece, Jana or

1857
01:38:23,800 --> 01:38:29,280
Speaker 15: damn advisor in the piece, attended a event that the

1858
01:38:29,320 --> 01:38:33,200
Speaker 15: Heritage Foundation did in Mexico. So I think that any

1859
01:38:33,320 --> 01:38:38,559
Speaker 15: signs of pragmatism, goodwill to work with people that you

1860
01:38:38,600 --> 01:38:42,160
Speaker 15: might disagree with, is a good sign from the incoming administration.

1861
01:38:42,840 --> 01:38:44,280
Speaker 6: And but before I let you go, I wanted to

1862
01:38:44,320 --> 01:38:46,040
Speaker 6: get you to comment on one of the funniest things

1863
01:38:46,080 --> 01:38:47,840
Speaker 6: I've seen in a very long time.

1864
01:38:48,000 --> 01:38:48,320
Speaker 3: And so.

1865
01:38:50,040 --> 01:38:52,439
Speaker 6: The night that she was elected, Todd Richmond, who is

1866
01:38:52,479 --> 01:38:55,000
Speaker 6: the chair of Democratic Majority for Israel, which is an

1867
01:38:55,040 --> 01:38:58,600
Speaker 6: APEX spinoff, said that, you know, because she's been so

1868
01:38:58,720 --> 01:39:01,960
Speaker 6: critical of Israel, that it's not really fair to really

1869
01:39:01,960 --> 01:39:04,799
Speaker 6: even highlight the fact that she's the first Jewish president

1870
01:39:05,400 --> 01:39:09,360
Speaker 6: of Mexico. And he pointed out that she even thanked

1871
01:39:09,479 --> 01:39:16,400
Speaker 6: Jesus in her victory speech. Turns out her husband is Jzeus.

1872
01:39:18,360 --> 01:39:22,800
Speaker 6: She was thanking her husband. So it's apparently news to

1873
01:39:23,000 --> 01:39:26,800
Speaker 6: Americans that there are people named Jzeus that live in Mexico. So, A,

1874
01:39:26,920 --> 01:39:29,519
Speaker 6: can you confirm that there are people in Mexico named Zeus?

1875
01:39:29,800 --> 01:39:31,320
Speaker 3: And B what does it say.

1876
01:39:31,120 --> 01:39:33,320
Speaker 6: About this kind of the kind of apac pro Israel

1877
01:39:33,320 --> 01:39:35,799
Speaker 6: reaction to her historic election.

1878
01:39:37,160 --> 01:39:40,759
Speaker 15: I mean, it makes sense she has taken the same

1879
01:39:40,920 --> 01:39:45,760
Speaker 15: line as her mentor on Israel Palestine, which actually they've

1880
01:39:45,760 --> 01:39:48,240
Speaker 15: embraced the kind of neutrality. I think they want to

1881
01:39:48,240 --> 01:39:51,519
Speaker 15: play a mediator role, but they've been very strongly in.

1882
01:39:51,520 --> 01:39:52,320
Speaker 11: Favor of peace.

1883
01:39:53,479 --> 01:39:55,680
Speaker 15: As far as the Jewish component is, the reality is

1884
01:39:55,680 --> 01:39:59,040
Speaker 15: that Shamebaum is more just ethnically Jewish. She hasn't played

1885
01:39:59,120 --> 01:40:03,280
Speaker 15: up her identity and does not really practice. I think

1886
01:40:03,320 --> 01:40:07,880
Speaker 15: she may be an atheist and has played up a

1887
01:40:07,880 --> 01:40:12,479
Speaker 15: lot of her you know, just Mexican nests, wearing traditional address,

1888
01:40:12,520 --> 01:40:16,320
Speaker 15: et cetera. Her husband is in fact named it's a common.

1889
01:40:16,120 --> 01:40:17,320
Speaker 11: Name in Latin America.

1890
01:40:18,320 --> 01:40:22,120
Speaker 15: But she's had a lot of videos about it, and

1891
01:40:22,280 --> 01:40:24,559
Speaker 15: maybe it could have fooled a lot of people but

1892
01:40:24,640 --> 01:40:28,840
Speaker 15: the opposition candidate soci advis towards the end actually started

1893
01:40:29,120 --> 01:40:30,600
Speaker 15: playing up her religiosity.

1894
01:40:30,640 --> 01:40:32,040
Speaker 11: Who knows how.

1895
01:40:32,200 --> 01:40:35,640
Speaker 15: Authentic that was to try to draw a contrast with

1896
01:40:36,120 --> 01:40:40,280
Speaker 15: Shane Baum and, for instance, formal President Vicente Fox, the

1897
01:40:40,640 --> 01:40:47,200
Speaker 15: Coca Cola executive, has made some borderline or openly anti

1898
01:40:47,240 --> 01:40:50,600
Speaker 15: Semitic slurs against Shane Bam, noting that she wasn't a

1899
01:40:50,640 --> 01:40:54,280
Speaker 15: real Mexican and the only authentic Mexican in the race

1900
01:40:54,439 --> 01:40:55,799
Speaker 15: was the opposition's candidate.

1901
01:40:57,240 --> 01:41:00,640
Speaker 5: Well Onanda vid Rojas, columnist at Compact, thanks for your

1902
01:41:00,640 --> 01:41:02,960
Speaker 5: reporting and for sharing with us some of what you

1903
01:41:03,000 --> 01:41:05,240
Speaker 5: saw down in Mexico City last week. That does it

1904
01:41:05,280 --> 01:41:08,280
Speaker 5: for us. On today's edition of Counterpoints, Ryan, We'll be

1905
01:41:08,320 --> 01:41:11,080
Speaker 5: back here on Friday with a debate. I'm really excited

1906
01:41:11,120 --> 01:41:15,479
Speaker 5: about just getting fully immersed in the Trump law. Fair

1907
01:41:15,600 --> 01:41:18,880
Speaker 5: conversation with two people on the absolute opposite ends of it.

1908
01:41:19,120 --> 01:41:20,880
Speaker 3: Trump lock him up, yay or nay?

1909
01:41:21,200 --> 01:41:22,759
Speaker 4: Yes, exactly. That is a resolution.

1910
01:41:24,040 --> 01:41:26,720
Speaker 3: Yay, lock him up for whatever.

1911
01:41:26,680 --> 01:41:29,240
Speaker 4: I mean that's going to be used against you.

1912
01:41:30,920 --> 01:41:33,040
Speaker 3: If he becomes president. I didn't mean it. If if

1913
01:41:33,080 --> 01:41:34,640
Speaker 3: he becomes president, I take it back.

1914
01:41:34,760 --> 01:41:36,040
Speaker 4: That's fair, all right?

1915
01:41:36,080 --> 01:41:39,480
Speaker 5: So We will be back next Wednesday with more counterpoints,

1916
01:41:39,479 --> 01:41:41,439
Speaker 5: but stay tuned Friday. Make sure to subscribe to the

1917
01:41:41,439 --> 01:41:43,880
Speaker 5: premium version breakingpoints dot com to actually get the Friday

1918
01:41:43,880 --> 01:41:46,439
Speaker 5: show on Thursday and to get the Wednesday show early

1919
01:41:46,720 --> 01:41:50,160
Speaker 5: with no breaks whatsoever. Full thing just hits your inbox

1920
01:41:50,320 --> 01:41:54,080
Speaker 5: right away. Breakingpoints dot Com, thanks so much for tuning.

1921
01:41:53,880 --> 01:41:55,960
Speaker 6: In and obviously locked by en Up, like that's not

1922
01:41:56,000 --> 01:41:56,559
Speaker 6: even a debate.

1923
01:41:56,560 --> 01:41:58,320
Speaker 5: Well I was going to say, that's really we just

1924
01:41:58,400 --> 01:42:00,000
Speaker 5: opened a can of worms kind of at the end

1925
01:42:00,080 --> 01:42:00,479
Speaker 5: end here, but

1926
01:42:00,600 --> 01:42:01,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, alright, see you guys soon