WEBVTT - Palestine’s Stolen Future 0:00:01.720 --> 0:00:05.640 Cool Zone Media. 0:00:06.240 --> 0:00:09.119 Hello everyone, and welcome to It can Happen Here. My 0:00:09.240 --> 0:00:12.200 name is Dan al Kurd. I'm a writer, analyst, and 0:00:12.280 --> 0:00:16.040 researcher of Palestinian and Arab politics. I'm an associate professor 0:00:16.040 --> 0:00:18.800 of political science and a senior non resident Fellow at 0:00:18.800 --> 0:00:21.639 the Arab Center Washington. You may have heard me on 0:00:21.800 --> 0:00:25.520 It Could Happen Here before or behind the Bastards. I've 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:28.240 been following cool Zone media projects for a while. I 0:00:28.280 --> 0:00:30.920 was happy when Robert and Sophie reached out and said, hey, 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:34.440 come talk to our listeners on a more regular basis. 0:00:35.800 --> 0:00:36.120 Today. 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:37.760 I want to talk to you about something that doesn't 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:43.920 get almost any attention in Western media, internal Palestinian politics. 0:00:44.640 --> 0:00:46.800 Something I've argued for a while and continues to be 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:50.040 the focus of my work is that Pasadian politics are 0:00:50.120 --> 0:00:54.400 important and the Passingian issue is important. I remember once 0:00:54.440 --> 0:00:56.920 being on stage for one of these DC events with 0:00:57.320 --> 0:01:01.120 none other than General Stanley McCrystal, and he turns to 0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:04.880 me and says, essentially, the Palstadian issue is an issue. 0:01:04.600 --> 0:01:05.200 Of the past. 0:01:05.520 --> 0:01:08.839 Other Arabs want to move on, and it took everything 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:11.319 in me to not respond, what planet are you living on? 0:01:12.200 --> 0:01:15.919 A genocide has been unfolding for the past almost two years, 0:01:16.400 --> 0:01:19.759 and crackdown on pro pastine activists is in the American 0:01:19.880 --> 0:01:23.640 media every other day. Maybe now we recognize that this 0:01:23.680 --> 0:01:26.760 is an important issue to understand, Maybe one can hope, 0:01:27.560 --> 0:01:29.800 But you would not believe how many people in DC, 0:01:30.440 --> 0:01:33.240 in the American government, and by extension, lots of people 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:37.080 in power, convinced themselves for years that the Pasadian issue 0:01:37.120 --> 0:01:41.880 and internal Pastadian politics were not worth addressing. For today's episode, 0:01:41.920 --> 0:01:43.840 I want to start to tackle a sort of big 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:47.440 question of what is going on with Pastadian politics, and 0:01:47.520 --> 0:01:49.680 I'll give you the takeaways for this episode right away. 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:54.480 Number One, the Palestinian people are totally unrepresented by their 0:01:54.560 --> 0:01:57.640 leadership right now. The Pasadian people haven't had a say 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:00.640 in a very long time, and that's a big problem 0:02:00.720 --> 0:02:02.680 because if we want to resolve any part of this 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:06.680 conflict sustainably, will need people to go along. And the 0:02:06.760 --> 0:02:10.240 conflict got to where it is now because international actors 0:02:10.240 --> 0:02:12.760 thought that they could ignore the Palestinian people. That's literally 0:02:12.800 --> 0:02:17.000 as simple as it gets. Number Two, no one internationally 0:02:17.200 --> 0:02:20.360 or state side seems to have learned this lesson. In 0:02:20.400 --> 0:02:25.480 the US, we've had bipartisan support for ignoring Palestinians and internationally, 0:02:25.520 --> 0:02:28.040 the response has been Okay, let's go back and try 0:02:28.040 --> 0:02:31.160 to do the same things we've always done, and maybe 0:02:31.160 --> 0:02:33.920 this time it'll work out for us. I'll explain more 0:02:33.919 --> 0:02:35.000 of what I mean as I go along. 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:35.519 Stay with me. 0:02:39.600 --> 0:02:42.720 Let's start first with the present. What's on everyone's minds 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:46.560 and screens, The war in Gaza, the genocide that's unfolding there. 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:50.480 I use that term because it's been credibly identified as 0:02:50.480 --> 0:02:54.480 a genocide by scholars of genocide and holocaust studies such 0:02:54.480 --> 0:02:58.280 as ras Segal, Omer Bartov and Amos Goldberg. 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:00.600 But I don't really care about this mantics here. 0:03:01.000 --> 0:03:03.400 Even if it was just mass violence and war crimes, 0:03:03.440 --> 0:03:06.480 that's still pretty bad too. But this genocide and this 0:03:06.600 --> 0:03:10.320 war has been relentless for over six hundred days now. 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:15.799 So what's everyone's endgame here? When this latest iteration of 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:20.000 violence started under the Biden registration, with Hamas's October seventh 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.520 attack that killed twelve hundred people and took two hundred 0:03:23.520 --> 0:03:26.480 and fifty hostages, the president and his team took every 0:03:26.520 --> 0:03:30.480 step to support Israel in its war. As Krada del Guindhi, 0:03:30.600 --> 0:03:33.839 author and political analysts wrote for Foreign policy last year, 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.600 Biden's embrace of Nittanne, who was rooted in the belief 0:03:38.000 --> 0:03:43.680 that only positive inducements and constant reassurances, both militarily and diplomatically, 0:03:43.960 --> 0:03:46.040 could restrain Israel's actions in Gaza. 0:03:46.160 --> 0:03:47.680 End quote, the. 0:03:47.640 --> 0:03:51.000 Israelis were pretty vocal and clear about what they thought 0:03:51.040 --> 0:03:53.600 they needed to do in Gaza. Their goals were to 0:03:53.800 --> 0:03:58.120 eliminate Hamas as a political actor entirely, and some vocal 0:03:58.160 --> 0:04:02.120 members of the Cabinet, such as Nance Minister Bisilosmotrich, as 0:04:02.160 --> 0:04:06.160 well as members of the Kanesset Israeli Parliament like nissiin Vaturi, 0:04:06.240 --> 0:04:10.080 the deputy Kanesset speaker, were talking straight up about annihilation 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:14.720 and population transfer settlement in Gaza. Perhaps we all remember 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:17.920 what happened here, but even as time went on, none 0:04:17.920 --> 0:04:21.080 of this was enough for the Biden administration to change 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:23.400 course on the type of support it was extending for 0:04:23.440 --> 0:04:27.680 this war. But let's also remember that the Biden administration 0:04:28.200 --> 0:04:31.400 had little interest in the Israeli Palestinian conflict before the 0:04:31.400 --> 0:04:35.000 October seventh attack, or indeed any interest in the Middle East. 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:37.719 The State Department under Biden had wound down its Middle 0:04:37.760 --> 0:04:41.120 East engagement. They didn't undo any of Trump's major policy 0:04:41.200 --> 0:04:44.200 changes visavi the Middle East during his first administration. In fact, 0:04:44.200 --> 0:04:48.279 they doubled down they agreed. For example, Trump during his 0:04:48.360 --> 0:04:52.480 first term officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, even though 0:04:52.480 --> 0:04:55.400 this is contested and you and Resolution one four seven 0:04:55.480 --> 0:04:59.560 says it should be an international city, internationally administered so 0:04:59.600 --> 0:05:02.120 that studients could also have access and claim to it, 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:05.600 but Trump says the US doesn't care accepts Israel's sovereignty 0:05:05.600 --> 0:05:08.839 over Jerusalem. Trump also during his first term tried to 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:12.880 sideline the issue of Palistine entirely by engineering these quote 0:05:12.920 --> 0:05:17.440 unquote peace deals between AIRB governments and Israel. Now, most 0:05:17.480 --> 0:05:20.320 Arab governments have had the position since the Arab Peace 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:22.960 Initiative of two thousand and two that they would not 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:26.919 have diplomatic relations with Israel and not recognize it officially 0:05:27.560 --> 0:05:31.120 until the implementation of a two state solution, that palsienens 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.440 would need to get some sort of state and only 0:05:33.480 --> 0:05:36.680 then would AIRB governments normalize relations with Israel. For a 0:05:36.720 --> 0:05:39.440 variety of reasons I can't get into here during this episode, 0:05:39.480 --> 0:05:41.479 but might be good to touch on in the future. 0:05:41.960 --> 0:05:45.040 Some of these Arab governments and the Trump administration decide 0:05:45.040 --> 0:05:48.480 to undo that precedent, sign these agreements with Israel, and 0:05:48.560 --> 0:05:51.320 basically make the claim that the Pasienen issue. 0:05:51.080 --> 0:05:53.320 Doesn't need to be solved. We can all move on. 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:58.400 When the Biden administration comes in, they support this line 0:05:58.440 --> 0:06:01.479 of policy too. They seem to agree that the world 0:06:01.680 --> 0:06:05.040 can move on while the Palestinians experience worse and worse 0:06:05.120 --> 0:06:09.400 violence and have zero freedom of movement, and are born 0:06:10.000 --> 0:06:13.039 and die without any sort of political rights or autonomy. 0:06:13.839 --> 0:06:17.720 They thought that that status quo looked pretty sustainable. Two 0:06:17.839 --> 0:06:20.400 years into the Biden administration, my colleagues at the Arab 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:24.200 Center wrote a report titled the Biden Administration and the 0:06:24.200 --> 0:06:27.359 Middle East in twenty twenty three, where they try to 0:06:27.360 --> 0:06:29.920 trace any shifts in his foreign policy towards the Middle East. 0:06:30.400 --> 0:06:31.880 There are six different analysts. 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:36.360 They basically agree across a variety of issue areas, including Palestine, 0:06:36.640 --> 0:06:40.719 that the Biden administration is pursuing business as usual. Of course, 0:06:40.720 --> 0:06:43.520 we know now that this comes to an abrupt end 0:06:43.560 --> 0:06:47.120 with the October seventh attacks and the subsequent war and genocide. 0:06:48.400 --> 0:06:51.800 Then Trump wins in twenty twenty four. He's back and 0:06:51.960 --> 0:06:52.560 Trump and his. 0:06:52.560 --> 0:06:55.320 Team while they largely see the Middle East as a 0:06:55.360 --> 0:06:59.640 business opportunity. Like everything, It's a place for money making 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:04.359 and grift. It's where katark can give the president a 0:07:04.400 --> 0:07:07.960 Boeing seven four to seven, and where the president's companies 0:07:08.000 --> 0:07:13.440 can build hotels. The uncertainty around war spilling over from Gaza, 0:07:13.640 --> 0:07:16.360 it's putting a damper on all of that. The Trump 0:07:16.360 --> 0:07:19.320 team has people on it like Mike Kuckabee, who doesn't 0:07:19.320 --> 0:07:22.800 even believe Palestinians exists as a people. He has repeatedly 0:07:22.840 --> 0:07:26.240 said that the occupied territories are not occupied, often uses 0:07:26.280 --> 0:07:29.400 their biblical names. Judan Samaria when he was one of 0:07:29.400 --> 0:07:31.880 the candidates running for president in two thousand and eight, 0:07:32.440 --> 0:07:35.760 he said that the Palestenian identity was quote a political 0:07:35.840 --> 0:07:38.200 tool to try and force land away from. 0:07:38.160 --> 0:07:40.920 Israel end quote. This is an argument on. 0:07:40.920 --> 0:07:44.400 The far right and some liberals too, who think that 0:07:44.400 --> 0:07:47.720 the Palsainian identity is not a national identity, but it's 0:07:47.720 --> 0:07:51.520 some sort of anti Semitic ideology. He has also since 0:07:51.720 --> 0:07:55.640 as the ambassador to Israel, currently talked about establishing a 0:07:55.640 --> 0:08:02.280 Palestinian state in another Muslim country. Despite these types of people, 0:08:02.720 --> 0:08:06.320 the Trump administration is weirdly more willing to take steps 0:08:06.800 --> 0:08:09.160 without Israel's approval to try and get a ceasefire in 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:13.440 Gaza and resolve the war that's cramping everyone's hopes and 0:08:13.480 --> 0:08:17.720 dreams for a Gaza Rivera maybe complete with bearded belly dancers. 0:08:18.040 --> 0:08:19.560 And if you don't know what I'm talking about, I 0:08:19.600 --> 0:08:24.640 really envy you. So Trump's team, Steve Witkoff, US Special 0:08:24.720 --> 0:08:28.200 Envoy to the Middle East and Adam Bohler, US Hostage Envoy, 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:32.080 actually have direct talks with Hamas the Trump team is 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:35.200 talking deals with Saudi Arabia without trying to pressure them 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:37.840 to make a deal with Israel anymore. Bohler says, the 0:08:37.960 --> 0:08:40.360 US isn't an agent of Israel. It has to have 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:44.360 its own policy. Honestly, the Biden administration could never not. 0:08:44.440 --> 0:08:47.640 To be clear, the Trump administration is still talking about 0:08:47.679 --> 0:08:51.959 population transfer. They don't care about stopping Israel's worst excesses 0:08:52.480 --> 0:08:56.280 like targeting schools and aid organizations. They in fact go 0:08:56.360 --> 0:08:59.800 along with this idea of creating eight distribution points under 0:08:59.800 --> 0:09:04.280 an new organization they called the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which 0:09:04.440 --> 0:09:08.240 all the other aid groups are screaming warnings about. The 0:09:08.440 --> 0:09:12.560 United Nations Relief and Works Agency ONNERWA. Their Commissioner, General 0:09:12.600 --> 0:09:16.599 Felipe Lazzarini has described the distribution sites as quote a 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:20.440 death trap with quote scores of injured and killed amongst 0:09:20.440 --> 0:09:24.520 starving civilians. Doctors Without Borders as an organization put out 0:09:24.520 --> 0:09:29.679 a statement affirming that this proposed AID organization is quote 0:09:29.679 --> 0:09:33.719 conditional en forced displacement and vetting of the population. So 0:09:33.880 --> 0:09:37.160 this humanitarian foundation is really just a way to politicize AID, 0:09:37.600 --> 0:09:41.320 and indeed the Israelis promptly use them to make arrests 0:09:41.320 --> 0:09:45.319 at AID sites and use them to sequester Palestinians into 0:09:45.400 --> 0:09:48.720 smaller katayd areas. You'd think in the Gaza strip that 0:09:48.760 --> 0:09:50.960 wouldn't even be possible, but they are finding a way. 0:09:52.000 --> 0:09:55.400 The first executive director of this foundation, Jake Woods, literally 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:57.800 resigns in a matter of weeks because he can't do 0:09:57.840 --> 0:10:02.120 his work while respecting humanitarian lis. He said specifically, it 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.800 was quote not possible to implement a new Israeli back 0:10:05.800 --> 0:10:08.880 to aid system in the enclave while remaining neutral and independent. 0:10:09.520 --> 0:10:25.080 So we're talking that bad. What's the endgame here for 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:28.120 the Israelis? Like I said, it's been pretty clear they 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:32.000 want population transfer for the US. We shall see to 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:34.160 what extent the Trump administration will go along with that. 0:10:35.120 --> 0:10:39.280 For Arab leaders, for international powers outside the US, they're 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:41.840 all scrambling to go back to a two state solution framework. 0:10:42.559 --> 0:10:44.960 They want a press reset on this war. Go back 0:10:45.040 --> 0:10:48.040 thirty years to nineteen ninety three when Israel in the 0:10:48.040 --> 0:10:51.000 past time the Liberation Organization signed the Hostile Peace Accords, 0:10:51.360 --> 0:10:55.680 and they want to restart these promised negotiations. The Saudi 0:10:55.720 --> 0:10:59.679 Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Vesan Binfarhan bin Abdullah, has 0:10:59.760 --> 0:11:03.520 repeat heatedly emphasized the Saudi Kingdom's commitment to the two 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:06.319 state solution, both at the Arab and Islamic Summit last 0:11:06.400 --> 0:11:10.960 year and in internal ministerial meetings. French President Emmanuel Macron 0:11:11.040 --> 0:11:13.960 and Saudi Crown Prince Hammad bin Seman even recently co 0:11:14.120 --> 0:11:18.320 chaired what they called quote a high level international Conference 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:21.040 for the Peaceful Settlement of the Palestinian Question and the 0:11:21.040 --> 0:11:22.679 implementation of the two State Solution. 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:23.960 Quite a mouthful. 0:11:24.559 --> 0:11:27.280 This meeting is held at the UN, and Katari Prime 0:11:27.320 --> 0:11:31.360 Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Schehmhammad bin Androhman Arthani 0:11:31.520 --> 0:11:32.840 also expressed. 0:11:32.400 --> 0:11:34.080 Support for the conference and its mission. 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:36.840 A lot of regional actors would love to put an 0:11:36.960 --> 0:11:40.840 end to all the war that's destabilizing Palestine, the region, 0:11:41.080 --> 0:11:44.280 and the domestic politics in many countries. And that would 0:11:44.280 --> 0:11:47.120 sound like a good idea if we didn't know how 0:11:47.160 --> 0:11:49.400 the first attempt at the two state solution ended up. 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:51.840 Let's break this down more. 0:11:52.520 --> 0:11:55.200 What is the Tuesday solution that they are desperately trying 0:11:55.200 --> 0:11:57.800 to go back to, and what were the also Peace 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:02.480 of Courts Piece Accords was a framework agreed upon by 0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:06.040 the Palestine Liberation Organization and the State of Israel to 0:12:06.160 --> 0:12:09.880 start the discussion about a two state solution. As part 0:12:09.880 --> 0:12:12.600 of that, it established the creation of a Palstinian Authority, 0:12:12.800 --> 0:12:15.520 a government that was supposed to start building up the 0:12:15.559 --> 0:12:19.440 parts of an eventual Palestinian state and occupied territories, Now 0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.920 where those lines eventually would be, what the word state 0:12:23.080 --> 0:12:25.920 actually meant for Palestinians, who would get to have sovereignty 0:12:25.920 --> 0:12:28.680 in Jerusalem, What would happen to refugees. All of this 0:12:28.840 --> 0:12:32.240 was put on the table for continued negotiations. But the 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:35.200 ASCO Accords were significant and have shaped the modern Israeli 0:12:35.200 --> 0:12:38.679 Palestinian conflict because not only was it the first time 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:44.400 Israelis and Palestinians were directly negotiating with American oversight and control, 0:12:44.440 --> 0:12:48.599 of course, but also because it creates this Palestinian authority apparatus. 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:51.720 The biggest problem is the Ascil piece of coords didn't work. 0:12:52.160 --> 0:12:55.160 We don't have a Palestenian state today. Palstenians, in fact 0:12:55.200 --> 0:12:58.200 have become more repressed, more restricted in their political rights 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:01.680 and freedom of movement, augmented physically and politically. After the 0:13:01.679 --> 0:13:05.800 ASCO courts, the ALSCOLL courts create a system of separating 0:13:05.840 --> 0:13:08.400 different parts of the occupied territories into Area A, B 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.880 and C. Eventually, Gaza and the West Bank are no 0:13:11.960 --> 0:13:16.160 longer governed together and Palestinians in the occupied territories no 0:13:16.200 --> 0:13:19.679 longer can access Jerusalem or inside the Green Line in Israel. 0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:23.199 And all of these changes happen because of the Oslo Accords, 0:13:23.520 --> 0:13:25.760 not to mention, of course, the fact that the Palestinians 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:28.760 continue to deal with the repression of the occupation as 0:13:28.800 --> 0:13:32.960 well as the Palestinian authority. The Prime Minister of Israel 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.760 who signed the ASCO Accords, Yitzak Robin, literally said in 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:40.080 his last speech to Israeli parliament, quote, we will give 0:13:40.120 --> 0:13:43.559 them something less than a state, and then after he's 0:13:43.559 --> 0:13:47.120 assassinated by a right wing Israeli we get successive Israeli 0:13:47.160 --> 0:13:50.640 governments that don't care about these negotiations at all, that 0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:53.319 continue to take more and more land in the occupied territories, 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:58.559 build new Israeli settlements, and restrict Palestinian life. The Palestinian 0:13:58.600 --> 0:14:01.480 people have not had a real say in any of this, 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:07.520 and the ASCOL Accords fundamentally shifted internal Palestinian politics in 0:14:07.600 --> 0:14:11.160 such a way that disempowered the Palestinian people even more. 0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:16.360 Keep this in mind, it's a very important point. Before 0:14:16.400 --> 0:14:20.720 the Also Accords, Palestinian politics was defined by the PLO, 0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:24.720 the Palestine Liberation Organization. The PLO is an umbrella organization 0:14:24.920 --> 0:14:26.560 with a number of political factions. 0:14:27.320 --> 0:14:29.280 It includes the diaspora. 0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:32.720 And includes Palstenians or refugee camps Pastinians as a people 0:14:32.920 --> 0:14:34.080 basically wherever they are. 0:14:34.840 --> 0:14:36.520 Of course, the Palestinians are killed. 0:14:36.640 --> 0:14:39.480 Wherever they are, of course, within the West Bank and 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:43.080 the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, and within the Pastinian communities 0:14:43.080 --> 0:14:46.040 in Israel, they're repressed in a variety of ways. So 0:14:46.320 --> 0:14:48.280 just to be clear that it wasn't great before the 0:14:48.320 --> 0:14:51.680 Also Accords by any means, and there are divisions within 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:55.680 the PLO between the different factions. There are also divisions 0:14:55.720 --> 0:14:59.520 between those within the occupied territories and those in the 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:03.520 PLO outside occupied territories. And then during the First Palestinian 0:15:03.640 --> 0:15:07.000 Uprising in the nineteen eighties, we also have the emergence 0:15:07.000 --> 0:15:10.520 of militant Islamus groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:13.920 are not part of the PLO and represent a sort 0:15:13.960 --> 0:15:17.920 of opposition to them. But the PLO is the internationally 0:15:17.960 --> 0:15:22.160 recognized representative of the Palestinian people. It's a national liberation 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:26.080 movement by its own definition. It's not a state and 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:30.280 it's not a government. The Palestinian Authority, a governing body, 0:15:30.480 --> 0:15:34.040 is supposed to be subordinate to the PLO. In actuality, 0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:37.520 it really became the key player, and the PLO becomes 0:15:37.560 --> 0:15:41.240 a zombie organization. Some parts of the PLO haven't seen 0:15:41.280 --> 0:15:46.240 meetings since the nineteen nineties. The PLO today is not representative, 0:15:46.520 --> 0:15:50.160 it's not very active. The PLO National Council, the main 0:15:50.240 --> 0:15:53.600 legislative body, is supposed to meet every year, that has 0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:56.720 only met twice in the past three decades. And then 0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.960 certain bodies within the PLO, like the Executive Committee or 0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:03.200 the Central Council really only meets to rubber stamp the 0:16:03.200 --> 0:16:08.240 Palestinian Authority leader's decisions. Why is this relevant, Well, it 0:16:08.360 --> 0:16:12.480 means the issue of Palestine became the issue of negotiating 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.960 over what this quote less than a state governing body 0:16:16.320 --> 0:16:19.400 called the Palestinian Authority gets to do in the bits 0:16:19.440 --> 0:16:23.000 of the occupied territories where it's allowed to operate. This 0:16:23.080 --> 0:16:26.960 framework doesn't include Palestinians outside those bits of the occupied territories, 0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:30.120 and the issue of Palestine is no longer about the 0:16:30.200 --> 0:16:33.800 right of refugees to return, for Palestinians to have actual sovereignty, 0:16:34.120 --> 0:16:36.760 to have a say in their own future. The PA 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:40.560 doesn't defend the Palestinians it's supposedly governing. In fact, it 0:16:40.640 --> 0:16:45.080 coordinates with Israel to maintain Israeli security, and there's no 0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:49.440 institutional way for Palestinians to impact their political leadership that 0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:53.080 might actually negotiate away their rights. Because the p LOO 0:16:53.440 --> 0:16:57.240 is no longer functioning and the PA itself is undemocratic, 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.120 the US and its allies consistently make sure it stays 0:17:01.120 --> 0:17:04.640 that way. They elevate the current leader, Mahamad Abbas and 0:17:04.760 --> 0:17:07.360 back is essentially uncontested election in two thousand and four 0:17:07.400 --> 0:17:10.520 to the presidency, they push our best to hold parliamentary 0:17:10.520 --> 0:17:13.520 elections in two thousand and six, and then when Hamas 0:17:13.560 --> 0:17:18.040 wins a plurality, help him overturn those elections. Within the 0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.960 political party that Abbas is also a leader of Fate, 0:17:21.760 --> 0:17:25.240 the emergence of new leaders is often blocked, sometimes by 0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.480 Israel simply not allowing party members to travel at attend 0:17:28.520 --> 0:17:32.080 the conferences. Palestinian scholar thought It Dana has some really 0:17:32.080 --> 0:17:34.399 interesting research on that front. If people are interested in 0:17:34.400 --> 0:17:38.240 a chapter titled Lost in Transition the Palestinian National Movement 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:43.600 after Oslo, suffice to say, everyone ignores demands by Palestinians 0:17:43.600 --> 0:17:46.439 in the occupied territories to have new leadership or to 0:17:46.480 --> 0:17:50.959 hold elections, and the Palestinian people's regular everyday life is 0:17:51.000 --> 0:17:54.840 such that they face more restrictions, more violence, more of 0:17:54.880 --> 0:17:58.840 an inability to live. When Hamas takes control in Gaza, 0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:01.000 Palestinians and Gaza all time so have to face a 0:18:01.000 --> 0:18:05.200 brutal blockade. Everyone in Palestine faces layers of authoritarian control, 0:18:05.680 --> 0:18:08.920 not just the occupation but the Palsidian authority itself, and 0:18:09.000 --> 0:18:11.840 everyone with power around the world basically expects them to 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:17.000 just accept this reality. Well, they won't, not because they're crazy, 0:18:17.040 --> 0:18:32.000 but because this is existential. There are more uprisings, some 0:18:32.160 --> 0:18:35.720 very violent. The second Palestinian uprising that starts in two 0:18:35.720 --> 0:18:39.040 thousand is more fragmented and much more violent than the first, 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:43.560 based on both death toll and tactics. Wendy Prohman's book 0:18:43.640 --> 0:18:46.720 Violence Nonviolence in the Palestinian National Movement has an excellent 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:49.680 analysis of how and why this happened. There are also 0:18:49.760 --> 0:18:53.720 nonviolent campaigns. There is the call by Palestinian Civil Society 0:18:53.760 --> 0:18:56.760 in two thousand and five to boycott, divest from, and 0:18:56.880 --> 0:19:01.360 sanctioned Israel, the BDS movement. There are non violent protest campaigns, 0:19:01.400 --> 0:19:04.639 especially in village areas where the new segregation wall is 0:19:04.680 --> 0:19:08.000 going up. People really lean on getting the attention of 0:19:08.000 --> 0:19:10.960 the international community and pursuing non violent tactics as a 0:19:10.960 --> 0:19:14.439 form of legitimacy. There are village campaigns in places like 0:19:14.480 --> 0:19:18.159 Bilayin and Layin and Budrus, lots of books, documentaries and 0:19:18.200 --> 0:19:19.160 press coverage. 0:19:19.480 --> 0:19:21.879 They get attention, but they don't stop the occupation. 0:19:22.720 --> 0:19:26.760 Thanks for Pastenians keep getting worse with no political options, 0:19:26.800 --> 0:19:30.280 the appeal of violent tactics goes up with increased threats 0:19:30.280 --> 0:19:33.600 and attacks by Israeli settlers alongside occupation forces, the appeal 0:19:33.640 --> 0:19:37.280 of violent tactics goes up. The Pastadian Center for Policy 0:19:37.280 --> 0:19:39.879 and Survey Research in a poll from September two on 0:19:40.080 --> 0:19:43.359 twenty three across occupied territories, so this is right before 0:19:43.400 --> 0:19:46.920 the last war, found support for armed struggle is much 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:50.520 higher than support for negotiations as the most effective means 0:19:50.520 --> 0:19:54.080 of ending the Israeli occupation. Fifty three percent of respondents 0:19:54.280 --> 0:19:59.359 support armed struggle and twenty percent support negotiations. I remember 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:03.320 being interviewed by the Ukrainian Outlet Commons, and I'm not 0:20:03.359 --> 0:20:05.159 the first to say this, nor was I the last, 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:08.160 but I remember talking to them in August twenty twenty 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:11.560 three and saying, it really seems like mass violence is 0:20:11.600 --> 0:20:15.480 coming because all of this isn't sustainable. On the Israeli side, 0:20:15.520 --> 0:20:19.240 with every election, their government was becoming more extreme, more 0:20:19.320 --> 0:20:21.120 vocal about population transfer. 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:21.600 And ethnic cleansing. 0:20:22.800 --> 0:20:25.399 So now that you know the backstory, it puts a 0:20:25.440 --> 0:20:30.000 new light on the discussion of a two state framework today. 0:20:30.080 --> 0:20:33.240 Even if that two state framework remained feasible, and that's 0:20:33.280 --> 0:20:36.679 a big if, how do international actors imagine this is 0:20:36.680 --> 0:20:37.560 going to work out. 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:39.760 If Palestinians still. 0:20:39.440 --> 0:20:42.960 Don't get a say in their own leadership, how are 0:20:42.960 --> 0:20:45.720 you going to get Palestinians to go along with the 0:20:45.720 --> 0:20:49.120 peace process they had no hand in shaping. And Palestinians 0:20:49.160 --> 0:20:53.160 are critical of their entire political establishment, both the PA 0:20:53.240 --> 0:20:57.040 and HAMAS in Gaza. People were protesting HAMAS before the 0:20:57.080 --> 0:21:00.320 October seventh detexts, that were protests in July twenty twenty 0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:03.680 three against governance and living conditions, and there were protests 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:06.560 after the October seventh attack in March of this year, 0:21:06.760 --> 0:21:09.720 also critical of HAMAS and its conduct. In May twenty 0:21:09.720 --> 0:21:13.000 twenty five, that same center, the Palestinian Center for Policy 0:21:13.000 --> 0:21:16.160 and Survey Research, had a poll which showed that only 0:21:16.200 --> 0:21:20.120 fifteen percent of respondents from across the occupied territories thought 0:21:20.119 --> 0:21:23.560 that the Palsaenian authority's conduct had been satisfactory. Forty two 0:21:23.600 --> 0:21:27.840 percent support its dissolution. So, given that this is how 0:21:27.840 --> 0:21:31.600 the public views thinks, plans for Gaza that rely on 0:21:31.680 --> 0:21:34.639 the return of a previous status quo, something like HAMAS 0:21:34.680 --> 0:21:36.520 in Gaza or the PA in the West Bank, or 0:21:36.720 --> 0:21:40.520 returning PA controlled to Gaza altogether, will not be popular 0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:44.240 in any shape or form, and yet there haven't been 0:21:44.359 --> 0:21:49.000 any clear proposals for anything but such a scenario. In fact, 0:21:49.080 --> 0:21:51.879 it seems Israel is banking on the idea of sequestering 0:21:51.880 --> 0:21:55.119 Palestinians into smaller camps. The US doesn't seem to have 0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:58.399 a problem with that. The Arabs and EU actors are 0:21:58.440 --> 0:22:01.720 still talking about supporting the Palstinian Authority. Foreign Minister of 0:22:01.760 --> 0:22:04.480 Sad Arabia and December twenty twenty four put out a 0:22:04.520 --> 0:22:08.000 statement affirming that quote the Kingdom and Arab and Islamic 0:22:08.040 --> 0:22:11.800 countries will continue to support the Palestinian Authority, noting its 0:22:11.840 --> 0:22:15.680 capacity despite all challenges to manage the situation in the 0:22:15.680 --> 0:22:19.639 West Bank and Gaza end quote and because they're worried 0:22:19.680 --> 0:22:21.880 about where the PA will go from here. Given how 0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:25.160 old the Palestinian president what Abbass is, He's eighty nine. 0:22:25.760 --> 0:22:28.040 Arab governments have also pressured him to figure out a 0:22:28.040 --> 0:22:32.280 succession plan. A few weeks ago May twenty twenty five, 0:22:33.000 --> 0:22:38.200 he did indeed convene the PLOW Central Council, despite objections 0:22:39.080 --> 0:22:41.800 and despite the fact that most factions within the PLO 0:22:41.920 --> 0:22:46.360 boycotted the proceedings. Those president changed the bylaws to make 0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:50.560 a new vice president position understood to be Abbess's successor. 0:22:51.280 --> 0:22:55.600 Abbess then appoints a man named Seenan Chez, a businessman, 0:22:55.640 --> 0:23:00.760 a security coordination guy who pulls at two percent. I mean, 0:23:00.840 --> 0:23:03.919 this just won't be acceptable to the Palestinian public, but 0:23:04.080 --> 0:23:08.200 this is their best plan. Because of these shenetigans, there 0:23:08.200 --> 0:23:12.600 are Palestinian initiatives with political leaders and civil society actors 0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:15.640 calling to revitalize the PLO to make it more representative. 0:23:16.240 --> 0:23:20.080 For example, there is the Palestinian National Conference initiative, which 0:23:20.119 --> 0:23:23.919 has been pretty consistently attacked by the PA. This National 0:23:23.960 --> 0:23:28.480 Conference attempts to involve a wider diaspora and include input 0:23:28.520 --> 0:23:31.560 from all the political factions, and it's called on PA 0:23:31.680 --> 0:23:35.280 leaders to revive the PLO meaningfully and allow for more input. 0:23:36.040 --> 0:23:38.960 There are also initiatives such as Land for All, which 0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:41.720 includes Israelis and Palestinians that talk about a new type 0:23:41.720 --> 0:23:44.520