1 00:00:01,720 --> 00:00:05,640 Speaker 1: Cool Zone Media. 2 00:00:06,240 --> 00:00:09,119 Speaker 2: Hello everyone, and welcome to It can Happen Here. My 3 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 2: name is Dan al Kurd. I'm a writer, analyst, and 4 00:00:12,280 --> 00:00:16,040 Speaker 2: researcher of Palestinian and Arab politics. I'm an associate professor 5 00:00:16,040 --> 00:00:18,800 Speaker 2: of political science and a senior non resident Fellow at 6 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,639 Speaker 2: the Arab Center Washington. You may have heard me on 7 00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:25,520 Speaker 2: It Could Happen Here before or behind the Bastards. I've 8 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:28,240 Speaker 2: been following cool Zone media projects for a while. I 9 00:00:28,280 --> 00:00:30,920 Speaker 2: was happy when Robert and Sophie reached out and said, hey, 10 00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:34,440 Speaker 2: come talk to our listeners on a more regular basis. 11 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:36,120 Speaker 1: Today. 12 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: I want to talk to you about something that doesn't 13 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:43,920 Speaker 2: get almost any attention in Western media, internal Palestinian politics. 14 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 2: Something I've argued for a while and continues to be 15 00:00:46,840 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 2: the focus of my work is that Pasadian politics are 16 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:54,400 Speaker 2: important and the Passingian issue is important. I remember once 17 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 2: being on stage for one of these DC events with 18 00:00:57,320 --> 00:01:01,120 Speaker 2: none other than General Stanley McCrystal, and he turns to 19 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:04,880 Speaker 2: me and says, essentially, the Palstadian issue is an issue. 20 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: Of the past. 21 00:01:05,520 --> 00:01:08,839 Speaker 2: Other Arabs want to move on, and it took everything 22 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 2: in me to not respond, what planet are you living on? 23 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:15,919 Speaker 2: A genocide has been unfolding for the past almost two years, 24 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,759 Speaker 2: and crackdown on pro pastine activists is in the American 25 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,640 Speaker 2: media every other day. Maybe now we recognize that this 26 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,760 Speaker 2: is an important issue to understand, Maybe one can hope, 27 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:29,800 Speaker 2: But you would not believe how many people in DC, 28 00:01:30,440 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 2: in the American government, and by extension, lots of people 29 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:37,080 Speaker 2: in power, convinced themselves for years that the Pasadian issue 30 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:41,880 Speaker 2: and internal Pastadian politics were not worth addressing. For today's episode, 31 00:01:41,920 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: I want to start to tackle a sort of big 32 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,440 Speaker 2: question of what is going on with Pastadian politics, and 33 00:01:47,520 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 2: I'll give you the takeaways for this episode right away. 34 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:54,480 Speaker 2: Number One, the Palestinian people are totally unrepresented by their 35 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 2: leadership right now. The Pasadian people haven't had a say 36 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:00,640 Speaker 2: in a very long time, and that's a big problem 37 00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:02,680 Speaker 2: because if we want to resolve any part of this 38 00:02:02,760 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 2: conflict sustainably, will need people to go along. And the 39 00:02:06,760 --> 00:02:10,240 Speaker 2: conflict got to where it is now because international actors 40 00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,760 Speaker 2: thought that they could ignore the Palestinian people. That's literally 41 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: as simple as it gets. Number Two, no one internationally 42 00:02:17,200 --> 00:02:20,360 Speaker 2: or state side seems to have learned this lesson. In 43 00:02:20,400 --> 00:02:25,480 Speaker 2: the US, we've had bipartisan support for ignoring Palestinians and internationally, 44 00:02:25,520 --> 00:02:28,040 Speaker 2: the response has been Okay, let's go back and try 45 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:31,160 Speaker 2: to do the same things we've always done, and maybe 46 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:33,920 Speaker 2: this time it'll work out for us. I'll explain more 47 00:02:33,919 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 2: of what I mean as I go along. 48 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 1: Stay with me. 49 00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:42,720 Speaker 2: Let's start first with the present. What's on everyone's minds 50 00:02:42,720 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 2: and screens, The war in Gaza, the genocide that's unfolding there. 51 00:02:47,760 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 2: I use that term because it's been credibly identified as 52 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:54,480 Speaker 2: a genocide by scholars of genocide and holocaust studies such 53 00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 2: as ras Segal, Omer Bartov and Amos Goldberg. 54 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: But I don't really care about this mantics here. 55 00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 2: Even if it was just mass violence and war crimes, 56 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 2: that's still pretty bad too. But this genocide and this 57 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 2: war has been relentless for over six hundred days now. 58 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 2: So what's everyone's endgame here? When this latest iteration of 59 00:03:15,880 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 2: violence started under the Biden registration, with Hamas's October seventh 60 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 2: attack that killed twelve hundred people and took two hundred 61 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 2: and fifty hostages, the president and his team took every 62 00:03:26,520 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 2: step to support Israel in its war. As Krada del Guindhi, 63 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:33,839 Speaker 2: author and political analysts wrote for Foreign policy last year, 64 00:03:34,560 --> 00:03:37,600 Speaker 2: Biden's embrace of Nittanne, who was rooted in the belief 65 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:43,680 Speaker 2: that only positive inducements and constant reassurances, both militarily and diplomatically, 66 00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 2: could restrain Israel's actions in Gaza. 67 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: End quote, the. 68 00:03:47,640 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 2: Israelis were pretty vocal and clear about what they thought 69 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,600 Speaker 2: they needed to do in Gaza. Their goals were to 70 00:03:53,800 --> 00:03:58,120 Speaker 2: eliminate Hamas as a political actor entirely, and some vocal 71 00:03:58,160 --> 00:04:02,120 Speaker 2: members of the Cabinet, such as Nance Minister Bisilosmotrich, as 72 00:04:02,160 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 2: well as members of the Kanesset Israeli Parliament like nissiin Vaturi, 73 00:04:06,240 --> 00:04:10,080 Speaker 2: the deputy Kanesset speaker, were talking straight up about annihilation 74 00:04:10,440 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 2: and population transfer settlement in Gaza. Perhaps we all remember 75 00:04:14,800 --> 00:04:17,920 Speaker 2: what happened here, but even as time went on, none 76 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:21,080 Speaker 2: of this was enough for the Biden administration to change 77 00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 2: course on the type of support it was extending for 78 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 2: this war. But let's also remember that the Biden administration 79 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:31,400 Speaker 2: had little interest in the Israeli Palestinian conflict before the 80 00:04:31,400 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 2: October seventh attack, or indeed any interest in the Middle East. 81 00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:37,719 Speaker 2: The State Department under Biden had wound down its Middle 82 00:04:37,760 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 2: East engagement. They didn't undo any of Trump's major policy 83 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 2: changes visavi the Middle East during his first administration. In fact, 84 00:04:44,200 --> 00:04:48,279 Speaker 2: they doubled down they agreed. For example, Trump during his 85 00:04:48,360 --> 00:04:52,480 Speaker 2: first term officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, even though 86 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:55,400 Speaker 2: this is contested and you and Resolution one four seven 87 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:59,560 Speaker 2: says it should be an international city, internationally administered so 88 00:04:59,600 --> 00:05:02,120 Speaker 2: that studients could also have access and claim to it, 89 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,600 Speaker 2: but Trump says the US doesn't care accepts Israel's sovereignty 90 00:05:05,600 --> 00:05:08,839 Speaker 2: over Jerusalem. Trump also during his first term tried to 91 00:05:08,880 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 2: sideline the issue of Palistine entirely by engineering these quote 92 00:05:12,920 --> 00:05:17,440 Speaker 2: unquote peace deals between AIRB governments and Israel. Now, most 93 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 2: Arab governments have had the position since the Arab Peace 94 00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 2: Initiative of two thousand and two that they would not 95 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:26,919 Speaker 2: have diplomatic relations with Israel and not recognize it officially 96 00:05:27,560 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 2: until the implementation of a two state solution, that palsienens 97 00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 2: would need to get some sort of state and only 98 00:05:33,480 --> 00:05:36,680 Speaker 2: then would AIRB governments normalize relations with Israel. For a 99 00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:39,440 Speaker 2: variety of reasons I can't get into here during this episode, 100 00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,479 Speaker 2: but might be good to touch on in the future. 101 00:05:41,960 --> 00:05:45,040 Speaker 2: Some of these Arab governments and the Trump administration decide 102 00:05:45,040 --> 00:05:48,480 Speaker 2: to undo that precedent, sign these agreements with Israel, and 103 00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,320 Speaker 2: basically make the claim that the Pasienen issue. 104 00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:53,320 Speaker 1: Doesn't need to be solved. We can all move on. 105 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 2: When the Biden administration comes in, they support this line 106 00:05:58,440 --> 00:06:01,479 Speaker 2: of policy too. They seem to agree that the world 107 00:06:01,680 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 2: can move on while the Palestinians experience worse and worse 108 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:09,400 Speaker 2: violence and have zero freedom of movement, and are born 109 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:13,039 Speaker 2: and die without any sort of political rights or autonomy. 110 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 2: They thought that that status quo looked pretty sustainable. Two 111 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:20,400 Speaker 2: years into the Biden administration, my colleagues at the Arab 112 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 2: Center wrote a report titled the Biden Administration and the 113 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 2: Middle East in twenty twenty three, where they try to 114 00:06:27,360 --> 00:06:29,920 Speaker 2: trace any shifts in his foreign policy towards the Middle East. 115 00:06:30,400 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: There are six different analysts. 116 00:06:32,240 --> 00:06:36,360 Speaker 2: They basically agree across a variety of issue areas, including Palestine, 117 00:06:36,640 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 2: that the Biden administration is pursuing business as usual. Of course, 118 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,520 Speaker 2: we know now that this comes to an abrupt end 119 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 2: with the October seventh attacks and the subsequent war and genocide. 120 00:06:48,400 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 1: Then Trump wins in twenty twenty four. He's back and 121 00:06:51,960 --> 00:06:52,560 Speaker 1: Trump and his. 122 00:06:52,560 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 2: Team while they largely see the Middle East as a 123 00:06:55,360 --> 00:06:59,640 Speaker 2: business opportunity. Like everything, It's a place for money making 124 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:04,359 Speaker 2: and grift. It's where katark can give the president a 125 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,960 Speaker 2: Boeing seven four to seven, and where the president's companies 126 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 2: can build hotels. The uncertainty around war spilling over from Gaza, 127 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,360 Speaker 2: it's putting a damper on all of that. The Trump 128 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:19,320 Speaker 2: team has people on it like Mike Kuckabee, who doesn't 129 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 2: even believe Palestinians exists as a people. He has repeatedly 130 00:07:22,840 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 2: said that the occupied territories are not occupied, often uses 131 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 2: their biblical names. Judan Samaria when he was one of 132 00:07:29,400 --> 00:07:31,880 Speaker 2: the candidates running for president in two thousand and eight, 133 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:35,760 Speaker 2: he said that the Palestenian identity was quote a political 134 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:38,200 Speaker 2: tool to try and force land away from. 135 00:07:38,160 --> 00:07:40,920 Speaker 1: Israel end quote. This is an argument on. 136 00:07:40,920 --> 00:07:44,400 Speaker 2: The far right and some liberals too, who think that 137 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 2: the Palsainian identity is not a national identity, but it's 138 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 2: some sort of anti Semitic ideology. He has also since 139 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 2: as the ambassador to Israel, currently talked about establishing a 140 00:07:55,640 --> 00:08:02,280 Speaker 2: Palestinian state in another Muslim country. Despite these types of people, 141 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:06,320 Speaker 2: the Trump administration is weirdly more willing to take steps 142 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 2: without Israel's approval to try and get a ceasefire in 143 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:13,440 Speaker 2: Gaza and resolve the war that's cramping everyone's hopes and 144 00:08:13,480 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 2: dreams for a Gaza Rivera maybe complete with bearded belly dancers. 145 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:19,560 Speaker 2: And if you don't know what I'm talking about, I 146 00:08:19,600 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 2: really envy you. So Trump's team, Steve Witkoff, US Special 147 00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:28,200 Speaker 2: Envoy to the Middle East and Adam Bohler, US Hostage Envoy, 148 00:08:28,840 --> 00:08:32,080 Speaker 2: actually have direct talks with Hamas the Trump team is 149 00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 2: talking deals with Saudi Arabia without trying to pressure them 150 00:08:35,200 --> 00:08:37,840 Speaker 2: to make a deal with Israel anymore. Bohler says, the 151 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 2: US isn't an agent of Israel. It has to have 152 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:44,360 Speaker 2: its own policy. Honestly, the Biden administration could never not. 153 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 2: To be clear, the Trump administration is still talking about 154 00:08:47,679 --> 00:08:51,959 Speaker 2: population transfer. They don't care about stopping Israel's worst excesses 155 00:08:52,480 --> 00:08:56,280 Speaker 2: like targeting schools and aid organizations. They in fact go 156 00:08:56,360 --> 00:08:59,800 Speaker 2: along with this idea of creating eight distribution points under 157 00:08:59,800 --> 00:09:04,280 Speaker 2: an new organization they called the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, which 158 00:09:04,440 --> 00:09:08,240 Speaker 2: all the other aid groups are screaming warnings about. The 159 00:09:08,440 --> 00:09:12,560 Speaker 2: United Nations Relief and Works Agency ONNERWA. Their Commissioner, General 160 00:09:12,600 --> 00:09:16,599 Speaker 2: Felipe Lazzarini has described the distribution sites as quote a 161 00:09:16,720 --> 00:09:20,440 Speaker 2: death trap with quote scores of injured and killed amongst 162 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 2: starving civilians. Doctors Without Borders as an organization put out 163 00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:29,679 Speaker 2: a statement affirming that this proposed AID organization is quote 164 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,719 Speaker 2: conditional en forced displacement and vetting of the population. So 165 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 2: this humanitarian foundation is really just a way to politicize AID, 166 00:09:37,600 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 2: and indeed the Israelis promptly use them to make arrests 167 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:45,319 Speaker 2: at AID sites and use them to sequester Palestinians into 168 00:09:45,400 --> 00:09:48,720 Speaker 2: smaller katayd areas. You'd think in the Gaza strip that 169 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:50,960 Speaker 2: wouldn't even be possible, but they are finding a way. 170 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:55,400 Speaker 2: The first executive director of this foundation, Jake Woods, literally 171 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 2: resigns in a matter of weeks because he can't do 172 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 2: his work while respecting humanitarian lis. He said specifically, it 173 00:10:02,240 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 2: was quote not possible to implement a new Israeli back 174 00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 2: to aid system in the enclave while remaining neutral and independent. 175 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:25,080 Speaker 2: So we're talking that bad. What's the endgame here for 176 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,120 Speaker 2: the Israelis? Like I said, it's been pretty clear they 177 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 2: want population transfer for the US. We shall see to 178 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 2: what extent the Trump administration will go along with that. 179 00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:39,280 Speaker 2: For Arab leaders, for international powers outside the US, they're 180 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:41,840 Speaker 2: all scrambling to go back to a two state solution framework. 181 00:10:42,559 --> 00:10:44,960 Speaker 2: They want a press reset on this war. Go back 182 00:10:45,040 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 2: thirty years to nineteen ninety three when Israel in the 183 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,000 Speaker 2: past time the Liberation Organization signed the Hostile Peace Accords, 184 00:10:51,360 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 2: and they want to restart these promised negotiations. The Saudi 185 00:10:55,720 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 2: Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Vesan Binfarhan bin Abdullah, has 186 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 2: repeat heatedly emphasized the Saudi Kingdom's commitment to the two 187 00:11:03,600 --> 00:11:06,319 Speaker 2: state solution, both at the Arab and Islamic Summit last 188 00:11:06,400 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 2: year and in internal ministerial meetings. French President Emmanuel Macron 189 00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:13,960 Speaker 2: and Saudi Crown Prince Hammad bin Seman even recently co 190 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 2: chaired what they called quote a high level international Conference 191 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,040 Speaker 2: for the Peaceful Settlement of the Palestinian Question and the 192 00:11:21,040 --> 00:11:22,679 Speaker 2: implementation of the two State Solution. 193 00:11:23,240 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 1: Quite a mouthful. 194 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,280 Speaker 2: This meeting is held at the UN, and Katari Prime 195 00:11:27,320 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 2: Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Schehmhammad bin Androhman Arthani 196 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:32,840 Speaker 2: also expressed. 197 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: Support for the conference and its mission. 198 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 2: A lot of regional actors would love to put an 199 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 2: end to all the war that's destabilizing Palestine, the region, 200 00:11:41,080 --> 00:11:44,280 Speaker 2: and the domestic politics in many countries. And that would 201 00:11:44,280 --> 00:11:47,120 Speaker 2: sound like a good idea if we didn't know how 202 00:11:47,160 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 2: the first attempt at the two state solution ended up. 203 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 1: Let's break this down more. 204 00:11:52,520 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 2: What is the Tuesday solution that they are desperately trying 205 00:11:55,200 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 2: to go back to, and what were the also Peace 206 00:11:57,800 --> 00:12:02,480 Speaker 2: of Courts Piece Accords was a framework agreed upon by 207 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:06,040 Speaker 2: the Palestine Liberation Organization and the State of Israel to 208 00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:09,880 Speaker 2: start the discussion about a two state solution. As part 209 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 2: of that, it established the creation of a Palstinian Authority, 210 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 2: a government that was supposed to start building up the 211 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 2: parts of an eventual Palestinian state and occupied territories, Now 212 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:22,920 Speaker 2: where those lines eventually would be, what the word state 213 00:12:23,080 --> 00:12:25,920 Speaker 2: actually meant for Palestinians, who would get to have sovereignty 214 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 2: in Jerusalem, What would happen to refugees. All of this 215 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:32,240 Speaker 2: was put on the table for continued negotiations. But the 216 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 2: ASCO Accords were significant and have shaped the modern Israeli 217 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:38,679 Speaker 2: Palestinian conflict because not only was it the first time 218 00:12:38,840 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 2: Israelis and Palestinians were directly negotiating with American oversight and control, 219 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:48,599 Speaker 2: of course, but also because it creates this Palestinian authority apparatus. 220 00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 2: The biggest problem is the Ascil piece of coords didn't work. 221 00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:55,160 Speaker 2: We don't have a Palestenian state today. Palstenians, in fact 222 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 2: have become more repressed, more restricted in their political rights 223 00:12:58,200 --> 00:13:01,680 Speaker 2: and freedom of movement, augmented physically and politically. After the 224 00:13:01,679 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 2: ASCO courts, the ALSCOLL courts create a system of separating 225 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 2: different parts of the occupied territories into Area A, B 226 00:13:08,520 --> 00:13:11,880 Speaker 2: and C. Eventually, Gaza and the West Bank are no 227 00:13:11,960 --> 00:13:16,160 Speaker 2: longer governed together and Palestinians in the occupied territories no 228 00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 2: longer can access Jerusalem or inside the Green Line in Israel. 229 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 2: And all of these changes happen because of the Oslo Accords, 230 00:13:23,520 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 2: not to mention, of course, the fact that the Palestinians 231 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,760 Speaker 2: continue to deal with the repression of the occupation as 232 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 2: well as the Palestinian authority. The Prime Minister of Israel 233 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,760 Speaker 2: who signed the ASCO Accords, Yitzak Robin, literally said in 234 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:40,080 Speaker 2: his last speech to Israeli parliament, quote, we will give 235 00:13:40,120 --> 00:13:43,559 Speaker 2: them something less than a state, and then after he's 236 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:47,120 Speaker 2: assassinated by a right wing Israeli we get successive Israeli 237 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:50,640 Speaker 2: governments that don't care about these negotiations at all, that 238 00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,319 Speaker 2: continue to take more and more land in the occupied territories, 239 00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 2: build new Israeli settlements, and restrict Palestinian life. The Palestinian 240 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 2: people have not had a real say in any of this, 241 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: and the ASCOL Accords fundamentally shifted internal Palestinian politics in 242 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:11,160 Speaker 2: such a way that disempowered the Palestinian people even more. 243 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:16,360 Speaker 2: Keep this in mind, it's a very important point. Before 244 00:14:16,400 --> 00:14:20,720 Speaker 2: the Also Accords, Palestinian politics was defined by the PLO, 245 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 2: the Palestine Liberation Organization. The PLO is an umbrella organization 246 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 2: with a number of political factions. 247 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,280 Speaker 1: It includes the diaspora. 248 00:14:29,080 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 2: And includes Palstenians or refugee camps Pastinians as a people 249 00:14:32,920 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 2: basically wherever they are. 250 00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 1: Of course, the Palestinians are killed. 251 00:14:36,640 --> 00:14:39,480 Speaker 2: Wherever they are, of course, within the West Bank and 252 00:14:39,520 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 2: the Gaza Strip and Jerusalem, and within the Pastinian communities 253 00:14:43,080 --> 00:14:46,040 Speaker 2: in Israel, they're repressed in a variety of ways. So 254 00:14:46,320 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 2: just to be clear that it wasn't great before the 255 00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 2: Also Accords by any means, and there are divisions within 256 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:55,680 Speaker 2: the PLO between the different factions. There are also divisions 257 00:14:55,720 --> 00:14:59,520 Speaker 2: between those within the occupied territories and those in the 258 00:14:59,520 --> 00:15:03,520 Speaker 2: PLO outside occupied territories. And then during the First Palestinian 259 00:15:03,640 --> 00:15:07,000 Speaker 2: Uprising in the nineteen eighties, we also have the emergence 260 00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 2: of militant Islamus groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad, who 261 00:15:10,600 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 2: are not part of the PLO and represent a sort 262 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 2: of opposition to them. But the PLO is the internationally 263 00:15:17,960 --> 00:15:22,160 Speaker 2: recognized representative of the Palestinian people. It's a national liberation 264 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 2: movement by its own definition. It's not a state and 265 00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 2: it's not a government. The Palestinian Authority, a governing body, 266 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 2: is supposed to be subordinate to the PLO. In actuality, 267 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:37,520 Speaker 2: it really became the key player, and the PLO becomes 268 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 2: a zombie organization. Some parts of the PLO haven't seen 269 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:46,240 Speaker 2: meetings since the nineteen nineties. The PLO today is not representative, 270 00:15:46,520 --> 00:15:50,160 Speaker 2: it's not very active. The PLO National Council, the main 271 00:15:50,240 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 2: legislative body, is supposed to meet every year, that has 272 00:15:53,640 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 2: only met twice in the past three decades. And then 273 00:15:56,760 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 2: certain bodies within the PLO, like the Executive Committee or 274 00:16:00,120 --> 00:16:03,200 Speaker 2: the Central Council really only meets to rubber stamp the 275 00:16:03,200 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 2: Palestinian Authority leader's decisions. Why is this relevant, Well, it 276 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:12,480 Speaker 2: means the issue of Palestine became the issue of negotiating 277 00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: over what this quote less than a state governing body 278 00:16:16,320 --> 00:16:19,400 Speaker 2: called the Palestinian Authority gets to do in the bits 279 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:23,000 Speaker 2: of the occupied territories where it's allowed to operate. This 280 00:16:23,080 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 2: framework doesn't include Palestinians outside those bits of the occupied territories, 281 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 2: and the issue of Palestine is no longer about the 282 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 2: right of refugees to return, for Palestinians to have actual sovereignty, 283 00:16:34,120 --> 00:16:36,760 Speaker 2: to have a say in their own future. The PA 284 00:16:36,840 --> 00:16:40,560 Speaker 2: doesn't defend the Palestinians it's supposedly governing. In fact, it 285 00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 2: coordinates with Israel to maintain Israeli security, and there's no 286 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:49,440 Speaker 2: institutional way for Palestinians to impact their political leadership that 287 00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:53,080 Speaker 2: might actually negotiate away their rights. Because the p LOO 288 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 2: is no longer functioning and the PA itself is undemocratic, 289 00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 2: the US and its allies consistently make sure it stays 290 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,640 Speaker 2: that way. They elevate the current leader, Mahamad Abbas and 291 00:17:04,760 --> 00:17:07,360 Speaker 2: back is essentially uncontested election in two thousand and four 292 00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:10,520 Speaker 2: to the presidency, they push our best to hold parliamentary 293 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:13,520 Speaker 2: elections in two thousand and six, and then when Hamas 294 00:17:13,560 --> 00:17:18,040 Speaker 2: wins a plurality, help him overturn those elections. Within the 295 00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:20,960 Speaker 2: political party that Abbas is also a leader of Fate, 296 00:17:21,760 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 2: the emergence of new leaders is often blocked, sometimes by 297 00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:28,480 Speaker 2: Israel simply not allowing party members to travel at attend 298 00:17:28,520 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 2: the conferences. Palestinian scholar thought It Dana has some really 299 00:17:32,080 --> 00:17:34,399 Speaker 2: interesting research on that front. If people are interested in 300 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 2: a chapter titled Lost in Transition the Palestinian National Movement 301 00:17:38,440 --> 00:17:43,600 Speaker 2: after Oslo, suffice to say, everyone ignores demands by Palestinians 302 00:17:43,600 --> 00:17:46,439 Speaker 2: in the occupied territories to have new leadership or to 303 00:17:46,480 --> 00:17:50,959 Speaker 2: hold elections, and the Palestinian people's regular everyday life is 304 00:17:51,000 --> 00:17:54,840 Speaker 2: such that they face more restrictions, more violence, more of 305 00:17:54,880 --> 00:17:58,840 Speaker 2: an inability to live. When Hamas takes control in Gaza, 306 00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:01,000 Speaker 2: Palestinians and Gaza all time so have to face a 307 00:18:01,000 --> 00:18:05,200 Speaker 2: brutal blockade. Everyone in Palestine faces layers of authoritarian control, 308 00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:08,920 Speaker 2: not just the occupation but the Palsidian authority itself, and 309 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,840 Speaker 2: everyone with power around the world basically expects them to 310 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:17,000 Speaker 2: just accept this reality. Well, they won't, not because they're crazy, 311 00:18:17,040 --> 00:18:32,000 Speaker 2: but because this is existential. There are more uprisings, some 312 00:18:32,160 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 2: very violent. The second Palestinian uprising that starts in two 313 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,040 Speaker 2: thousand is more fragmented and much more violent than the first, 314 00:18:39,400 --> 00:18:43,560 Speaker 2: based on both death toll and tactics. Wendy Prohman's book 315 00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 2: Violence Nonviolence in the Palestinian National Movement has an excellent 316 00:18:46,760 --> 00:18:49,680 Speaker 2: analysis of how and why this happened. There are also 317 00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 2: nonviolent campaigns. There is the call by Palestinian Civil Society 318 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,760 Speaker 2: in two thousand and five to boycott, divest from, and 319 00:18:56,880 --> 00:19:01,360 Speaker 2: sanctioned Israel, the BDS movement. There are non violent protest campaigns, 320 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,639 Speaker 2: especially in village areas where the new segregation wall is 321 00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:08,000 Speaker 2: going up. People really lean on getting the attention of 322 00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,960 Speaker 2: the international community and pursuing non violent tactics as a 323 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:14,439 Speaker 2: form of legitimacy. There are village campaigns in places like 324 00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:18,159 Speaker 2: Bilayin and Layin and Budrus, lots of books, documentaries and 325 00:19:18,200 --> 00:19:19,160 Speaker 2: press coverage. 326 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,879 Speaker 1: They get attention, but they don't stop the occupation. 327 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:26,760 Speaker 2: Thanks for Pastenians keep getting worse with no political options, 328 00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:30,280 Speaker 2: the appeal of violent tactics goes up with increased threats 329 00:19:30,280 --> 00:19:33,600 Speaker 2: and attacks by Israeli settlers alongside occupation forces, the appeal 330 00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 2: of violent tactics goes up. The Pastadian Center for Policy 331 00:19:37,280 --> 00:19:39,879 Speaker 2: and Survey Research in a poll from September two on 332 00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:43,359 Speaker 2: twenty three across occupied territories, so this is right before 333 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:46,920 Speaker 2: the last war, found support for armed struggle is much 334 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,520 Speaker 2: higher than support for negotiations as the most effective means 335 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 2: of ending the Israeli occupation. Fifty three percent of respondents 336 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 2: support armed struggle and twenty percent support negotiations. I remember 337 00:19:59,359 --> 00:20:03,320 Speaker 2: being interviewed by the Ukrainian Outlet Commons, and I'm not 338 00:20:03,359 --> 00:20:05,159 Speaker 2: the first to say this, nor was I the last, 339 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 2: but I remember talking to them in August twenty twenty 340 00:20:08,200 --> 00:20:11,560 Speaker 2: three and saying, it really seems like mass violence is 341 00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,480 Speaker 2: coming because all of this isn't sustainable. On the Israeli side, 342 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:19,240 Speaker 2: with every election, their government was becoming more extreme, more 343 00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,120 Speaker 2: vocal about population transfer. 344 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 1: And ethnic cleansing. 345 00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,399 Speaker 2: So now that you know the backstory, it puts a 346 00:20:25,440 --> 00:20:30,000 Speaker 2: new light on the discussion of a two state framework today. 347 00:20:30,080 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 2: Even if that two state framework remained feasible, and that's 348 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:36,679 Speaker 2: a big if, how do international actors imagine this is 349 00:20:36,680 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 2: going to work out. 350 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: If Palestinians still. 351 00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:42,960 Speaker 2: Don't get a say in their own leadership, how are 352 00:20:42,960 --> 00:20:45,720 Speaker 2: you going to get Palestinians to go along with the 353 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,120 Speaker 2: peace process they had no hand in shaping. And Palestinians 354 00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:53,160 Speaker 2: are critical of their entire political establishment, both the PA 355 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:57,040 Speaker 2: and HAMAS in Gaza. People were protesting HAMAS before the 356 00:20:57,080 --> 00:21:00,320 Speaker 2: October seventh detexts, that were protests in July twenty twenty 357 00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,680 Speaker 2: three against governance and living conditions, and there were protests 358 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:06,560 Speaker 2: after the October seventh attack in March of this year, 359 00:21:06,760 --> 00:21:09,720 Speaker 2: also critical of HAMAS and its conduct. In May twenty 360 00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:13,000 Speaker 2: twenty five, that same center, the Palestinian Center for Policy 361 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 2: and Survey Research, had a poll which showed that only 362 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:20,120 Speaker 2: fifteen percent of respondents from across the occupied territories thought 363 00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:23,560 Speaker 2: that the Palsaenian authority's conduct had been satisfactory. Forty two 364 00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,840 Speaker 2: percent support its dissolution. So, given that this is how 365 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,600 Speaker 2: the public views thinks, plans for Gaza that rely on 366 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,639 Speaker 2: the return of a previous status quo, something like HAMAS 367 00:21:34,680 --> 00:21:36,520 Speaker 2: in Gaza or the PA in the West Bank, or 368 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 2: returning PA controlled to Gaza altogether, will not be popular 369 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,240 Speaker 2: in any shape or form, and yet there haven't been 370 00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:49,000 Speaker 2: any clear proposals for anything but such a scenario. In fact, 371 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:51,879 Speaker 2: it seems Israel is banking on the idea of sequestering 372 00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 2: Palestinians into smaller camps. The US doesn't seem to have 373 00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:58,399 Speaker 2: a problem with that. The Arabs and EU actors are 374 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,720 Speaker 2: still talking about supporting the Palstinian Authority. Foreign Minister of 375 00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 2: Sad Arabia and December twenty twenty four put out a 376 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:08,000 Speaker 2: statement affirming that quote the Kingdom and Arab and Islamic 377 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 2: countries will continue to support the Palestinian Authority, noting its 378 00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 2: capacity despite all challenges to manage the situation in the 379 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:19,639 Speaker 2: West Bank and Gaza end quote and because they're worried 380 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,880 Speaker 2: about where the PA will go from here. Given how 381 00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:25,160 Speaker 2: old the Palestinian president what Abbass is, He's eighty nine. 382 00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:28,040 Speaker 2: Arab governments have also pressured him to figure out a 383 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,280 Speaker 2: succession plan. A few weeks ago May twenty twenty five, 384 00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:38,200 Speaker 2: he did indeed convene the PLOW Central Council, despite objections 385 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,800 Speaker 2: and despite the fact that most factions within the PLO 386 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:46,360 Speaker 2: boycotted the proceedings. Those president changed the bylaws to make 387 00:22:46,400 --> 00:22:50,560 Speaker 2: a new vice president position understood to be Abbess's successor. 388 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:55,600 Speaker 2: Abbess then appoints a man named Seenan Chez, a businessman, 389 00:22:55,640 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 2: a security coordination guy who pulls at two percent. I mean, 390 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,919 Speaker 2: this just won't be acceptable to the Palestinian public, but 391 00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:08,200 Speaker 2: this is their best plan. Because of these shenetigans, there 392 00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 2: are Palestinian initiatives with political leaders and civil society actors 393 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,640 Speaker 2: calling to revitalize the PLO to make it more representative. 394 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,080 Speaker 2: For example, there is the Palestinian National Conference initiative, which 395 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:23,919 Speaker 2: has been pretty consistently attacked by the PA. This National 396 00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:28,480 Speaker 2: Conference attempts to involve a wider diaspora and include input 397 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,560 Speaker 2: from all the political factions, and it's called on PA 398 00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 2: leaders to revive the PLO meaningfully and allow for more input. 399 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,960 Speaker 2: There are also initiatives such as Land for All, which 400 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:41,720 Speaker 2: includes Israelis and Palestinians that talk about a new type 401 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 2: of two state solution and they want to move beyond 402 00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:48,159 Speaker 2: the current kind of political impacts on both sides. But 403 00:23:48,320 --> 00:23:50,640 Speaker 2: no one is really paying attention to these calls from 404 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:54,840 Speaker 2: outside initiatives or from civil society, so as of now, 405 00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:59,080 Speaker 2: the only plan being taken seriously is the Israeli US 406 00:23:59,160 --> 00:24:02,720 Speaker 2: plan of repressing Gaza into oblivion. There's even reporting by 407 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 2: how much haw that at Zeteo that the Israeli forces 408 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:09,480 Speaker 2: have activated and supported gangs in Gaza, some of them 409 00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:13,920 Speaker 2: with affiliations to Isis, to advance their political aims. What's 410 00:24:13,960 --> 00:24:15,720 Speaker 2: clear is that we do need to go back to 411 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:19,080 Speaker 2: the drawing board, and we need to understand that unless 412 00:24:19,119 --> 00:24:22,879 Speaker 2: Palestinians have a say in their internal politics, no solutions 413 00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:26,720 Speaker 2: will be meaningful. But I don't see any indication that 414 00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:30,040 Speaker 2: anyone with any power talking about solutions for Gaza and 415 00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:31,960 Speaker 2: the war has absorbed this fact. 416 00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:37,200 Speaker 1: That's all I have for you today. 417 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 2: I'll be back to talk more about developments in Palestinian politics, 418 00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:44,640 Speaker 2: as well as deep dives on topics like Arab Israeli negotiations, 419 00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:46,160 Speaker 2: protest movements and more. 420 00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:47,600 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. 421 00:24:52,640 --> 00:24:55,240 Speaker 3: It Could Happen Here is a production of pool Zone Media. 422 00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,360 Speaker 3: For more podcasts from cool Zone Media, visit our website 423 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:02,040 Speaker 3: Poolzonmedia dot com, or check us out on the iHeartRadio app, 424 00:25:02,080 --> 00:25:05,640 Speaker 3: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to podcasts. You can 425 00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,040 Speaker 3: now find sources for It Could Happen here, listed directly 426 00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:10,360 Speaker 3: in episode descriptions. Thanks for listening.