1
00:00:10,480 --> 00:00:12,800
Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you welcome into the Thursday

2
00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 1: morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast. My name is

3
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,080
Speaker 1: Matt Perrault. This is on Bettingpros dot com and we're

4
00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:21,880
Speaker 1: always being brought to you by BETMGM man. We're back

5
00:00:21,920 --> 00:00:26,000
Speaker 1: on a Thursday Thursday night football. Three plays tell you

6
00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:29,200
Speaker 1: about coming up tonight, two prop bets and one side

7
00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,680
Speaker 1: that I'm going to talk about tonight for Seattle at

8
00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:34,919
Speaker 1: home taking on the Arizona Cardinals. Before we do that,

9
00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,839
Speaker 1: quick recap what happened last night? So a two and

10
00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:40,960
Speaker 1: one game, a two and one night for us rather,

11
00:00:41,320 --> 00:00:45,520
Speaker 1: so we get the Western Michigan Central game completely right.

12
00:00:45,640 --> 00:00:48,800
Speaker 1: We got the over in a laugher. Awesome. We got

13
00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:51,519
Speaker 1: Western in a pretty easy pickup situation where they were

14
00:00:51,560 --> 00:00:53,840
Speaker 1: up big. They wind up winning by eight, so two

15
00:00:53,880 --> 00:00:56,760
Speaker 1: and zero in that game. And then ball Stay just well,

16
00:00:56,840 --> 00:00:59,440
Speaker 1: they kind of puked all over themselves in the second half.

17
00:00:59,520 --> 00:01:02,760
Speaker 1: They're up by fourteen, they let Northern come back and

18
00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:04,959
Speaker 1: unfortunately they do not cover that fourteen and a half

19
00:01:04,959 --> 00:01:08,759
Speaker 1: point spread. So not great. Don't love it. I expected

20
00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:11,559
Speaker 1: more out of ball State put a two and one night. Nonetheless,

21
00:01:11,600 --> 00:01:14,000
Speaker 1: half a unit plays on those plays. So we're up

22
00:01:14,000 --> 00:01:16,560
Speaker 1: a little bit nine point four units, and I was

23
00:01:16,600 --> 00:01:19,440
Speaker 1: up a little bit more because I went in and

24
00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,640
Speaker 1: I tried to do something a little bit different than

25
00:01:21,680 --> 00:01:24,400
Speaker 1: I normally have done. So I've been talking to a

26
00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:26,800
Speaker 1: couple of friends of mine who in game wager, and

27
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:28,360
Speaker 1: you guys have been asking me, like, what are different

28
00:01:28,360 --> 00:01:31,560
Speaker 1: ways about in game wagering. So I tried to jump

29
00:01:31,640 --> 00:01:35,959
Speaker 1: on a Steam run and what. Everybody has their own

30
00:01:36,040 --> 00:01:37,880
Speaker 1: names for this, but what I did last night during

31
00:01:37,880 --> 00:01:40,280
Speaker 1: that game, we saw twenty one points get scored in

32
00:01:40,319 --> 00:01:42,919
Speaker 1: the first eight minutes of that game, so the total

33
00:01:42,959 --> 00:01:45,160
Speaker 1: was fifteenine and a half. When you get twenty one

34
00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:49,360
Speaker 1: points right there, you know that the in game wagering

35
00:01:49,480 --> 00:01:52,600
Speaker 1: number is going to be pretty crazy. So I bet

36
00:01:52,720 --> 00:01:57,280
Speaker 1: seventy nine and a half and that hit. Then ninety

37
00:01:57,360 --> 00:02:01,360
Speaker 1: and a half was up. I bet that and that hit,

38
00:02:01,600 --> 00:02:03,480
Speaker 1: so I kind of was going, I don't know about that,

39
00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,880
Speaker 1: but it hit. So what I did was I put

40
00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:09,880
Speaker 1: a quarter unit down on the first in game wager

41
00:02:10,000 --> 00:02:12,160
Speaker 1: and then put half of that, so like, you know,

42
00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,440
Speaker 1: zero point one five unit down on the second one.

43
00:02:15,760 --> 00:02:18,480
Speaker 1: But I hit them all and maybe I'll be more

44
00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,720
Speaker 1: aggressive next time. But that's something to look at for

45
00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:24,880
Speaker 1: in game wagering where maybe if it does look like okay,

46
00:02:24,919 --> 00:02:28,000
Speaker 1: the over is gonna hit for sure, maybe you start

47
00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:30,240
Speaker 1: don't play full unit, so like, if it's a half

48
00:02:30,240 --> 00:02:32,880
Speaker 1: a unit, play, come in with a quarter. If it's

49
00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,160
Speaker 1: a full unit, play, come in with a half a unit.

50
00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:37,359
Speaker 1: So you don't want to put yourself in a position

51
00:02:37,440 --> 00:02:40,720
Speaker 1: where you lose the initial wager or you wind up flat.

52
00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:42,920
Speaker 1: You always want to wag You always want to end

53
00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:45,840
Speaker 1: up your up right. So just for fun, if it's

54
00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:48,320
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars, you would bet fifty because you know

55
00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:51,800
Speaker 1: you're gonna win ninety five dollars on the first bet,

56
00:02:52,000 --> 00:02:54,440
Speaker 1: So now you're betting with their money. If you will,

57
00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:57,280
Speaker 1: you know, you know you're good, so let's bet another fifty.

58
00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:00,480
Speaker 1: You hit it again. In this scenario, you would bet

59
00:03:00,480 --> 00:03:03,000
Speaker 1: twenty five dollars on the third bet and so on, right,

60
00:03:03,040 --> 00:03:05,680
Speaker 1: so you just keep on betting until maybe you lose.

61
00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,120
Speaker 1: So that was a situation where it was just points

62
00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:09,840
Speaker 1: and points and points. And this happens a lot more

63
00:03:09,880 --> 00:03:13,240
Speaker 1: in college football than it doesn't NFL football. But it

64
00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 1: is a way of chasing the number and can you

65
00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,880
Speaker 1: get caught absolutely, but I wind up I wound up

66
00:03:19,880 --> 00:03:22,440
Speaker 1: making up from pretty much the entire bet that we

67
00:03:22,520 --> 00:03:25,680
Speaker 1: lost on ball State doing that, So for me, it

68
00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:27,880
Speaker 1: was a pretty good night. I wound up basically up

69
00:03:27,880 --> 00:03:30,880
Speaker 1: a unit last night from doing exactly that. So maybe

70
00:03:30,880 --> 00:03:33,200
Speaker 1: that's just a one way of using just you know,

71
00:03:33,240 --> 00:03:35,320
Speaker 1: if you see a steam movement, if we're you know,

72
00:03:35,360 --> 00:03:37,320
Speaker 1: getting it, if we're gonna nail it here with the over,

73
00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,880
Speaker 1: and it's just kind of like a waterfall, points and

74
00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,840
Speaker 1: points and points, you jump on it and then every

75
00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,320
Speaker 1: couple of you know, the way the books in Vegas

76
00:03:45,320 --> 00:03:47,840
Speaker 1: have been doing it is during commercial breaks, they'll reset

77
00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:49,720
Speaker 1: the number and then you can just you know, if

78
00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:51,240
Speaker 1: you like it, you just keep on betting it. So

79
00:03:51,480 --> 00:03:53,320
Speaker 1: that's what I did last night. So it was good.

80
00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:55,280
Speaker 1: I enjoyed it. I mean, I'll take a night like

81
00:03:55,320 --> 00:03:58,040
Speaker 1: that anytime. We wind up For the last two weeks

82
00:03:58,080 --> 00:04:01,800
Speaker 1: seven and two on the Maction mid week games, unfortunately

83
00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:05,680
Speaker 1: that's it. No more Maction. Kind of a bummer, right,

84
00:04:05,920 --> 00:04:08,640
Speaker 1: and no more Maction for the week during the week,

85
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:12,279
Speaker 1: but we still have games on Saturday, but no standalone

86
00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:16,680
Speaker 1: stand alone college basketball games. Hopefully knock on wood for COVID,

87
00:04:16,720 --> 00:04:19,400
Speaker 1: but hopefully we have college basketball taking its place coming

88
00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,159
Speaker 1: up next week. If you bet the NBA draft, I

89
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:25,279
Speaker 1: hope you did well with it. Nobody in Vegas booked

90
00:04:25,320 --> 00:04:28,159
Speaker 1: the NBA Draft. It was not approved by then about

91
00:04:28,160 --> 00:04:30,440
Speaker 1: a gaming control boards. So if you guys had the

92
00:04:30,480 --> 00:04:33,760
Speaker 1: option of gamble on it, congratulations. We are still stuck

93
00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:37,920
Speaker 1: behind incredibly here in Vegas. We just don't have what

94
00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:42,159
Speaker 1: everybody else hads and it's frustrating, but not that I

95
00:04:42,240 --> 00:04:44,839
Speaker 1: would have bet on it. But there was a couple

96
00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:47,360
Speaker 1: of wagers. Darren Rovel tweeted out about a guy who

97
00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:50,240
Speaker 1: bet about nine hundred and fifty bucks and one of

98
00:04:50,240 --> 00:04:53,000
Speaker 1: the plays that won thirty thousand. And if you want

99
00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:56,080
Speaker 1: to know why the books in Vegas don't book the

100
00:04:56,160 --> 00:05:00,200
Speaker 1: NBA draft, that's why. Because it was clear that there

101
00:05:00,240 --> 00:05:03,080
Speaker 1: was some insider information or he got tipped off or

102
00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:06,560
Speaker 1: something that led to this gambler taking a flyer for

103
00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,599
Speaker 1: nine hundred bucks on a bet that paid off, you know,

104
00:05:09,680 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 1: thirty thousand dollars. So that's why Nevada is very scared

105
00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:16,320
Speaker 1: of anybody having a leg up, anybody having insider information,

106
00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,599
Speaker 1: and the sports books get caught with their pants down,

107
00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:20,640
Speaker 1: and that's why they don't allow the books, or the

108
00:05:20,680 --> 00:05:22,960
Speaker 1: books don't really want to. They don't push for it

109
00:05:23,440 --> 00:05:25,279
Speaker 1: to be able to book the NBA Draft. Like I

110
00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:28,479
Speaker 1: mentioned last night, we're only about three years into the

111
00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,400
Speaker 1: NFL Draft being legalized to be bet on here in

112
00:05:32,480 --> 00:05:34,760
Speaker 1: Las Vegas. So not great. But if you bet on

113
00:05:34,760 --> 00:05:36,640
Speaker 1: it last night, hopefully you guys hit and hopefully you

114
00:05:36,720 --> 00:05:43,679
Speaker 1: did well. A couple things first, parlays. So a couple

115
00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:48,080
Speaker 1: of you guys have been sending me questions either through

116
00:05:48,160 --> 00:05:52,680
Speaker 1: DM or through on Twitter, and you're like, Matt, hey,

117
00:05:53,120 --> 00:05:55,680
Speaker 1: you know I need ball State to cover here. I

118
00:05:55,720 --> 00:05:59,640
Speaker 1: got a three team parlay going. Can we you og

119
00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:02,200
Speaker 1: daily juice? Guys know what I'm gonna say here. But

120
00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:08,640
Speaker 1: if you're new, okay, parlaying doesn't pay. Let me sit again.

121
00:06:09,279 --> 00:06:15,960
Speaker 1: Parlaying doesn't pay. I know it's fun to bet ten

122
00:06:16,040 --> 00:06:18,520
Speaker 1: bucks to win one hundred. I know it's fun to

123
00:06:18,520 --> 00:06:21,440
Speaker 1: bet twenty bucks to win five hundred. I get all

124
00:06:21,480 --> 00:06:25,479
Speaker 1: of that, Okay, but that's not how you win. That's

125
00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:27,760
Speaker 1: not how you stay your stay solvent, that's not how

126
00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:32,360
Speaker 1: you handle your bank roll. Right. We're going slow and steady, Okay,

127
00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:34,599
Speaker 1: We're the tortoise. If you want to be the rabbit,

128
00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:36,480
Speaker 1: go ahead. But the rabbit gets his head cut off

129
00:06:36,480 --> 00:06:39,520
Speaker 1: way too often in this game. Okay, be the tortoise,

130
00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:44,600
Speaker 1: slow and steady, Okay, methodical every night. Just look, if

131
00:06:44,600 --> 00:06:47,400
Speaker 1: we win two and one every single night, things would

132
00:06:47,400 --> 00:06:51,880
Speaker 1: be good. I'm serious, two and one every night. Just

133
00:06:52,080 --> 00:06:56,120
Speaker 1: brick by brick, just one step at a time. Right,

134
00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,920
Speaker 1: How do you walk a thousand miles one step out

135
00:06:59,000 --> 00:07:01,120
Speaker 1: of time? Right? How do you an elephant one bite

136
00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:03,920
Speaker 1: at a time. It's not fun to do it that way,

137
00:07:03,960 --> 00:07:06,400
Speaker 1: I get it. It's you can't brag to your friends

138
00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:09,200
Speaker 1: and you're not getting a draft Kings tweet saying, look

139
00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:11,120
Speaker 1: with this bet Or did with his ten leg parlay,

140
00:07:11,280 --> 00:07:13,440
Speaker 1: he turned twenty five dollars and it's twenty five thousand,

141
00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:19,239
Speaker 1: amazingly enough. Right, No, okay, it just doesn't work long term,

142
00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,200
Speaker 1: it doesn't work. So if last night you parlayed my

143
00:07:22,360 --> 00:07:26,720
Speaker 1: three bets together last night, what the hell are you doing? Okay,

144
00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,040
Speaker 1: what the hell are you doing? Do not parlay and

145
00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:35,000
Speaker 1: eaven my place together. Don't do it, because you're sitting

146
00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:38,840
Speaker 1: as a loser this morning as you listening to this.

147
00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,200
Speaker 1: You lost last night. If you bet fifty bucks on

148
00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,840
Speaker 1: a three leg parlay on all three in my place,

149
00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,200
Speaker 1: and you think, oh man, if I bet if that

150
00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:50,120
Speaker 1: goes three, and oh man, that fifty bucks is gonna

151
00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:55,200
Speaker 1: turn into two hundred, this is awesome, okay, rather than saying,

152
00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:59,840
Speaker 1: all right, I bet fifty bucks on three games and

153
00:07:59,880 --> 00:08:03,840
Speaker 1: I one two and I lost one. So depending on

154
00:08:03,880 --> 00:08:06,160
Speaker 1: the odds that you wind up paying. But you're thinking

155
00:08:06,200 --> 00:08:09,600
Speaker 1: to yourself, okay, so you're up point four units forty bucks,

156
00:08:09,680 --> 00:08:12,360
Speaker 1: whatever it might be, is it better? Let me ask you,

157
00:08:12,680 --> 00:08:15,200
Speaker 1: is it better to be up forty bucks or down fifty?

158
00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:18,200
Speaker 1: Which one is it? Which one do you which one?

159
00:08:18,240 --> 00:08:21,320
Speaker 1: Which situation do you feel better? Which one do you

160
00:08:21,400 --> 00:08:24,520
Speaker 1: feel more happy about? Do you want to be up

161
00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:29,720
Speaker 1: forty bucks or down fifty? So stop it, stop parlaying,

162
00:08:29,760 --> 00:08:31,280
Speaker 1: and then stop coming to me and talking to me

163
00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,280
Speaker 1: about it, saying I've got this parlay. Should I do this?

164
00:08:33,360 --> 00:08:35,760
Speaker 1: Orul I do that. I'm gonna stop answering the question

165
00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,640
Speaker 1: because it's bothering me because you're not doing what I'm

166
00:08:38,640 --> 00:08:40,920
Speaker 1: telling you to do. So that's fine, you don't have to,

167
00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:43,160
Speaker 1: but then don't come and ask for my advice if

168
00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,400
Speaker 1: you're not gonna do what I'm telling you to do.

169
00:08:45,400 --> 00:08:50,319
Speaker 1: Don't parlay. Right, we thought about Daily Juice T shirts

170
00:08:50,360 --> 00:08:52,560
Speaker 1: like what I want to tell the betting pros. Guys

171
00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:57,000
Speaker 1: don't parlay like Front and Center Daily Juice. Don't parlay.

172
00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:01,760
Speaker 1: Don't parlay. Okay, I can't ser enough. Do not parlay.

173
00:09:02,160 --> 00:09:04,800
Speaker 1: And secondly, you know a lot of you are having

174
00:09:04,840 --> 00:09:08,640
Speaker 1: conversations in questions to me about units and how much

175
00:09:08,679 --> 00:09:11,080
Speaker 1: you should be betting, and you know whether or not

176
00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,040
Speaker 1: it's smart to go and double up. Look again, just

177
00:09:14,080 --> 00:09:18,400
Speaker 1: to reiterate, Okay, your one unit should be five percent

178
00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:21,000
Speaker 1: of what your bankroll is. If you don't have a

179
00:09:21,040 --> 00:09:25,040
Speaker 1: bankroll established one if you are new, take one hundred

180
00:09:25,080 --> 00:09:27,280
Speaker 1: dollars if you can afford it. Okay, that should be

181
00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:31,480
Speaker 1: your bankroll. One hundred dollars. Five dollars is five percent

182
00:09:31,800 --> 00:09:35,560
Speaker 1: of your bankroll. So your one unit is five dollars. Now,

183
00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:38,440
Speaker 1: some books won't let you bet two fifty for a

184
00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:42,959
Speaker 1: half a unit, but most I think will take two fifty.

185
00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,079
Speaker 1: That's your half a unit. Okay, two fifty, and then

186
00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:50,480
Speaker 1: you add zeros from there. Okay, However, big one hundred dollars,

187
00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,440
Speaker 1: thousand dollars, ten thousand dollars whatever it might be right,

188
00:09:53,720 --> 00:09:57,280
Speaker 1: So you establish that and then we do flat wagering.

189
00:09:57,800 --> 00:10:00,559
Speaker 1: One question was asked, Matt, you really liked that bet

190
00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:02,800
Speaker 1: with Western? I thought, man, it was great value. It

191
00:10:02,880 --> 00:10:06,680
Speaker 1: flipped the steam on the Broncos and they wanted a laugher.

192
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:09,080
Speaker 1: I doubled up and I put two units down on it.

193
00:10:09,120 --> 00:10:12,040
Speaker 1: How cool is that? Well, yeah, I'm happy for you,

194
00:10:12,679 --> 00:10:15,000
Speaker 1: But what happens if I was wrong? What happens if

195
00:10:15,000 --> 00:10:17,320
Speaker 1: I got the over right in the ball State game

196
00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:21,280
Speaker 1: right and the Western game wrong, then you're down two units.

197
00:10:22,080 --> 00:10:25,320
Speaker 1: So what I tell when I'm telling you to flat wager,

198
00:10:25,640 --> 00:10:27,880
Speaker 1: what I'm telling you to do is play defense for

199
00:10:27,960 --> 00:10:32,199
Speaker 1: the inevitable. What the inevitable is is losing. Losing is

200
00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:35,079
Speaker 1: the inevitability in this. Okay, we already put one hundred

201
00:10:35,120 --> 00:10:37,319
Speaker 1: and ten dollars down to their one hundred. We're already

202
00:10:37,320 --> 00:10:40,240
Speaker 1: at a disadvantage right from the get go. Even in

203
00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,880
Speaker 1: the best of circumstances, we're already at a disadvantage. Okay,

204
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:47,080
Speaker 1: So for that very reason, that's why flat wagering makes

205
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:49,720
Speaker 1: more sense. So great, I'm glad that if you doubled

206
00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:52,320
Speaker 1: up or tripled up or whatever. But it's your bankroll,

207
00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,319
Speaker 1: it's your business. I'm just telling you, don't do it

208
00:10:55,440 --> 00:10:58,440
Speaker 1: better to flat wager. You don't have to subscribe to it,

209
00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:01,960
Speaker 1: but it's to play defense for the inevitable, which is

210
00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,319
Speaker 1: going to be a one in five day, which will

211
00:11:04,320 --> 00:11:06,240
Speaker 1: come at some point. Okay, we're gonna have them. We're

212
00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:08,040
Speaker 1: gonna have a two and seven day. We're gonna have

213
00:11:08,520 --> 00:11:11,160
Speaker 1: a three and fourteen week. We've had those. If you've

214
00:11:11,160 --> 00:11:14,600
Speaker 1: been listening to the Daily Juices, you know, right. So sure,

215
00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:16,920
Speaker 1: it's great when you get Dustin Johnson plus eight fifty,

216
00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:18,720
Speaker 1: and it's great when you're winning games during the week

217
00:11:18,720 --> 00:11:20,440
Speaker 1: with the MAC, and it's great when you're getting you know,

218
00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:24,360
Speaker 1: college and pro games. Correct. But this is hard, Like

219
00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:27,079
Speaker 1: I've said over and over again, this is hard, all right.

220
00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:28,840
Speaker 1: For you guys who want to get a BETAMGM account,

221
00:11:28,840 --> 00:11:30,600
Speaker 1: if you haven't gotten one yet, it's great. Offer tonight

222
00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:34,080
Speaker 1: on Thursday Night Football one dollar on the money line

223
00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:38,480
Speaker 1: Cardinals or the Seahawks one dollar money line will win

224
00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:40,880
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars in free wagers if either team scores

225
00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:45,040
Speaker 1: a touchdown Tonight's on Thursday Night Football. Use that promo

226
00:11:45,080 --> 00:11:47,320
Speaker 1: code juice one hundred when you sign up and bet

227
00:11:47,320 --> 00:11:50,280
Speaker 1: one dollar Cardinals of the Seahawks, and you will win

228
00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:54,160
Speaker 1: one hundred dollars in free bets from bet mgm if

229
00:11:54,200 --> 00:11:56,839
Speaker 1: either team scores a touchdown. Go to bedamgym dot com

230
00:11:56,880 --> 00:11:58,760
Speaker 1: for terms and conditions. You must be twenty one years

231
00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:02,880
Speaker 1: or older and located in Tennessee, Colorado, Indiana, New Jersey,

232
00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:07,000
Speaker 1: or West Virginia. Please gamble responsibly. Gambling problem called one

233
00:12:07,040 --> 00:12:10,240
Speaker 1: hundred five two to two forty seven hundred in Colorado, Nevada,

234
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,280
Speaker 1: one hard gambler in New Jersey, in West Virginia or

235
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,280
Speaker 1: one hundred and nine with it in Indiana. Let's talk

236
00:12:16,320 --> 00:12:19,440
Speaker 1: about the Seahawks and the Cardinals. Minus three for the

237
00:12:19,520 --> 00:12:22,680
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks who are at or at home against the

238
00:12:22,679 --> 00:12:26,520
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals. Now, these two teams played earlier in the season,

239
00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:29,320
Speaker 1: and people have been talking a lot about the fact

240
00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:33,200
Speaker 1: that Seattle's defense is simply awful. And I will concur

241
00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:37,400
Speaker 1: Seattle's defense has been really, really bad, and it's been

242
00:12:37,480 --> 00:12:40,080
Speaker 1: somewhat of an eye opener when we look at this

243
00:12:40,160 --> 00:12:43,160
Speaker 1: and you're like, hmm, what's gonna happen here for the

244
00:12:43,240 --> 00:12:46,079
Speaker 1: rest of the year for this Russell Wilson, We're gonna

245
00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 1: let Russ cook, right, this is the whole thing. Let

246
00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,120
Speaker 1: Russ cook. Well, Look, their offense is really really good.

247
00:12:52,160 --> 00:12:54,880
Speaker 1: If you look at Pro Football Focus, the highest graded

248
00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,720
Speaker 1: offense is in the NFL right now, Seattle is graded

249
00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,600
Speaker 1: at eighty five. That's number one, the Packer number two,

250
00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:04,000
Speaker 1: eighty four point seven, the Vikings number three at eighty

251
00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:07,280
Speaker 1: four point three. Okay, their offense has been really, really good.

252
00:13:07,640 --> 00:13:10,680
Speaker 1: Yet these last three games, they've not played well and

253
00:13:10,720 --> 00:13:12,720
Speaker 1: it's caused a lot of people to start to freak

254
00:13:12,760 --> 00:13:16,520
Speaker 1: out a little bit because Russell Wilson's campaign to win

255
00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:21,439
Speaker 1: an MVP has been derailed pretty badly. And if you

256
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:23,080
Speaker 1: look at the fact that they could have lost to

257
00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:25,280
Speaker 1: the Patriots at home. You had that one play at

258
00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:28,600
Speaker 1: the goal line for Cam Newton. They had that tough

259
00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:30,800
Speaker 1: game against the Cowboys, were the only one that game

260
00:13:30,840 --> 00:13:34,319
Speaker 1: by seven. They had a nail bitter against the Vikings

261
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:36,560
Speaker 1: where they won the game twenty seven to twenty one.

262
00:13:37,200 --> 00:13:40,199
Speaker 1: They lost on the road at the Cardinals in that crazy,

263
00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,520
Speaker 1: ridiculous Sunday game that was moved to Sunday Night Football,

264
00:13:43,920 --> 00:13:46,120
Speaker 1: that thirty seven to thirty four game that was just

265
00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:50,760
Speaker 1: a wow, overtime thriller. You start to wonder a little

266
00:13:50,800 --> 00:13:53,280
Speaker 1: bit about this team as to where this team is now.

267
00:13:53,400 --> 00:13:55,760
Speaker 1: They're coming off of their third straight loss or sorry,

268
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,880
Speaker 1: second straight loss, third and four games, and they looked

269
00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:04,560
Speaker 1: okay offensively against the Rams, but not great on the road,

270
00:14:04,640 --> 00:14:07,600
Speaker 1: back to back road games, back to back road losses

271
00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:11,680
Speaker 1: twenty three to sixteen. I think the defense took a

272
00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:15,679
Speaker 1: big step forward last week, however, I think they started

273
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:19,360
Speaker 1: to figure things out. And I think this defense at

274
00:14:19,400 --> 00:14:22,520
Speaker 1: home is gonna be benefiting from the weather. It's gonna

275
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:25,800
Speaker 1: be cold, it's gonna be wet and rainy. That field

276
00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,200
Speaker 1: has been taking water all week. It has been raining

277
00:14:28,280 --> 00:14:32,120
Speaker 1: all week in Seattle. It's a primetime game on a

278
00:14:32,200 --> 00:14:37,520
Speaker 1: short week following a ridiculous, emotional, crazy win just a

279
00:14:37,560 --> 00:14:40,760
Speaker 1: couple of days ago for the Seattle sorry for the

280
00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:43,920
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals, and now they're going into a Hornets nest

281
00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,520
Speaker 1: and I know there's no fans there, but it's still

282
00:14:46,560 --> 00:14:49,480
Speaker 1: gonna be a Hornets nest in my opinion. Now, against

283
00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:51,680
Speaker 1: the spread, both these two teams are five and four

284
00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:54,520
Speaker 1: on the year, but Seattle three and one at home

285
00:14:54,880 --> 00:14:58,360
Speaker 1: against the spread so far this season, last two games,

286
00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:01,360
Speaker 1: both at home for the car Knows, they failed to cover.

287
00:15:01,480 --> 00:15:04,040
Speaker 1: They were favored by six against Miami and they lost

288
00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:07,160
Speaker 1: by three. They're fared by three against the Buffalo Bills

289
00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:10,240
Speaker 1: and they won by two. Hail Mary should have lost

290
00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,200
Speaker 1: the game, gave up that late touchdown to Stefan Diggs

291
00:15:13,360 --> 00:15:15,840
Speaker 1: should have cost them, should have lost it, but it

292
00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,640
Speaker 1: didn't happen, so they want it miracle. But now they

293
00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,320
Speaker 1: go up against the Seahawks and a really angry team.

294
00:15:22,840 --> 00:15:25,520
Speaker 1: I like the Seahawks here, lay in just three points

295
00:15:25,600 --> 00:15:28,720
Speaker 1: at home. I'm gonna take the home favorites, whether in

296
00:15:28,760 --> 00:15:31,360
Speaker 1: their favor. I think this is a tough game for

297
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:34,080
Speaker 1: this entire Cardinals team to go on the road, and

298
00:15:34,160 --> 00:15:36,720
Speaker 1: I expect that defense to get torched coming up. I

299
00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:40,280
Speaker 1: expect a big game from Russell Wilson. Although my prop

300
00:15:40,320 --> 00:15:42,960
Speaker 1: bet might surprise you. I do think they're gonna run

301
00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:45,640
Speaker 1: the ball a little bit more than people think. I

302
00:15:45,680 --> 00:15:48,000
Speaker 1: think they're gonna try a bunch of different ways because

303
00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:49,600
Speaker 1: I don't think we're gonna see a whole lot of

304
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:54,160
Speaker 1: offense from either team here. So minus three we're going

305
00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:58,120
Speaker 1: minus three on the Seattle Seahawks for play number one

306
00:15:58,440 --> 00:16:04,360
Speaker 1: at one full unit. The second second well two prop bets,

307
00:16:04,360 --> 00:16:07,480
Speaker 1: second bet two prop bets, both at point twenty five units.

308
00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:12,640
Speaker 1: Let's start with Russell Wilson under three hundred and fifteen

309
00:16:12,680 --> 00:16:16,080
Speaker 1: and a half yards passing on at DraftKings. If you

310
00:16:16,160 --> 00:16:19,640
Speaker 1: go to our player prop cheat sheet off bettingpros dot com,

311
00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:25,240
Speaker 1: the number two prop bet right now is Russell Wilson

312
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:29,280
Speaker 1: being projected for three hundred point six yards. I got

313
00:16:29,320 --> 00:16:32,800
Speaker 1: it at three fifteen and a half fifteen point five

314
00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 1: yards of value there. We're going under Russell Wilson because

315
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 1: I don't think the I don't think this offense wants

316
00:16:39,000 --> 00:16:42,640
Speaker 1: to be just a pass happy predicated entirely on Russell

317
00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:45,600
Speaker 1: Wilson throwing the football. I think they want some balance.

318
00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 1: I think they want to try to find some guys

319
00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,720
Speaker 1: who ruin the football. Carlos Hidees coming back, Chris Carson's

320
00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:54,320
Speaker 1: questionable for this game. But I think Russ may be

321
00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:56,120
Speaker 1: in the run game a little bit, and I think

322
00:16:56,160 --> 00:16:58,680
Speaker 1: the passing attack might be a little conservative here. I

323
00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:00,960
Speaker 1: don't think they're gonna go big play please. I think

324
00:17:01,000 --> 00:17:06,600
Speaker 1: the defense for the Cardinals is a little bit not suspect,

325
00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:11,040
Speaker 1: but not great. I think under three hundred and fifteen

326
00:17:11,320 --> 00:17:14,280
Speaker 1: point five yards passing. Because of the weather, we're gonna

327
00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,400
Speaker 1: go under Russell Wilson three hundred and fifteen point five

328
00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:20,200
Speaker 1: yard just a lot of yards for a quarterback. We're

329
00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:23,600
Speaker 1: going under at point twenty five units. And on the

330
00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:28,159
Speaker 1: other side, I thought about play betting the anytime touchdown

331
00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:31,639
Speaker 1: for Kyler Murray. That's been very profitable. I've been betting

332
00:17:31,640 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 1: that consistently. I haven't been given that out every week

333
00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,760
Speaker 1: on the podcast, but it's been hitting consistently. You want

334
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:40,160
Speaker 1: to bet that, that's fine. DraftKings has it at minus

335
00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:44,240
Speaker 1: one fifty five for Murray anytime touchdown. The folks at

336
00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,199
Speaker 1: bet MGM have figured it out. It's minus two twenty

337
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 1: five on the juice for Kyler Murray anytime touchdown. To

338
00:17:51,880 --> 00:17:53,359
Speaker 1: give you a little bit of an idea as to

339
00:17:53,440 --> 00:17:56,600
Speaker 1: where the books are on that. They don't like that

340
00:17:56,640 --> 00:17:58,800
Speaker 1: at all. They're trying to get everybody off that. But

341
00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:00,240
Speaker 1: if you want to go to DraftKings in lay the

342
00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,040
Speaker 1: minds one fifty five, that's not bad for Kyler Murray.

343
00:18:03,040 --> 00:18:06,760
Speaker 1: But the official play for the podcast is over Kenyan

344
00:18:06,880 --> 00:18:10,119
Speaker 1: Drake rushing yards at forty seven and a half. I

345
00:18:10,160 --> 00:18:12,440
Speaker 1: think he has a pretty decent night running the football here,

346
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:15,680
Speaker 1: and I think this defense gives up some rushing yards

347
00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,240
Speaker 1: for the Seattle Seahawks. I think Drake will get a

348
00:18:18,280 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 1: pretty good dose of running it in the weather, in

349
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,560
Speaker 1: the in the muck, if you will. And you know,

350
00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:26,359
Speaker 1: Arizona's pretty good at running the football thanks to Kyler Murray,

351
00:18:26,359 --> 00:18:28,480
Speaker 1: but they're pretty good at rushing the football. So Kenyan

352
00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,600
Speaker 1: Drake over forty seven and a half yards rushing at

353
00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,920
Speaker 1: minus one eighteen. That is also at DraftKings. So for

354
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,480
Speaker 1: the three plays, one point five units in play, Seattle

355
00:18:39,520 --> 00:18:42,639
Speaker 1: minus three at a full unit, taking the Seahawks to

356
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 1: win and cover at home, Russ under three hundred and

357
00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:49,160
Speaker 1: fifteen point five yards passing for point twenty five units,

358
00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,399
Speaker 1: and Drake over forty seven and a half yards rushing

359
00:18:52,680 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 1: at minus one eighteen. Kenny and Drake rushing for the

360
00:18:55,560 --> 00:18:58,760
Speaker 1: Arizona Cardinals at point twenty five units. Those are the

361
00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 1: plays for Thursday. I'm at Parolt. Follow me on Twitter

362
00:19:02,480 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: at sports Talk Matt. Every week, every day, It's the

363
00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 1: Daily Juice podcast of bettingpros dot Com. Present it by

364
00:19:10,280 --> 00:19:10,919
Speaker 1: Ben MGM