WEBVTT - Michael Hans on the Markets (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, Well, Johnny's Michael hands That, chief investment officer at

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<v Speaker 1>Clarfield Citizens Private Wealth, getting his take on this market volatility. Michael,

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<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for joining. Is you know, as

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<v Speaker 1>a private wealth c I O if you will, What

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<v Speaker 1>do you try to do right now? Is it trying

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<v Speaker 1>to perhaps go in the field of wealth preservation rather

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<v Speaker 1>than actually accumulation. Thanks for having me. The environment we

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<v Speaker 1>find ourselves in, I mean, I think there's a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of both. But when we look across the landscape

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<v Speaker 1>of investment opportunities, as much volatively as we've seen, and

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<v Speaker 1>certainly for global portfolios, this has been a really challenged year.

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<v Speaker 1>We've we've seen a stark difference in in the yield

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity that we have today relative to where we were

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<v Speaker 1>just a few months ago. And so I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>a combination of not necessarily principle preservation, but a higher

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<v Speaker 1>degree of certainty of more optimal returns where even on

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<v Speaker 1>the front end of the yield curve you can certainly

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<v Speaker 1>earn attractive yield, which leads investors to question how much

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<v Speaker 1>risk do I need to take to hit some of

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<v Speaker 1>my target return levels going forward? Yeah, but you can

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<v Speaker 1>almost think of it the other way to which is

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<v Speaker 1>if you can get four percent on a two year

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<v Speaker 1>treasury and you can get five to six percent on

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<v Speaker 1>Muni's tax free, and you can get slightly higher than

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<v Speaker 1>that with aspects of of corporate you know, investment grade

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<v Speaker 1>and even high yield, then it's you know, you didn't

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<v Speaker 1>used to have that, and yet you were still gambling

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<v Speaker 1>or playing in the equity market. But now that you

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<v Speaker 1>can get pretty solid yields on around say five to

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<v Speaker 1>six percent, does it almost protect you to a certain

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<v Speaker 1>degree that you can make some bets on equity given

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<v Speaker 1>the big sell off we've seen. Absolutely, and and so

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<v Speaker 1>I would tell you we think about the sequencing of

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<v Speaker 1>events and how they're going to occur, and despite today's

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<v Speaker 1>considerable rally, again we tend to find some of the

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<v Speaker 1>sharpest advances, you know, just ultimately proving to be nothing

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<v Speaker 1>more than a bear market rally, right we're positioning became extended.

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<v Speaker 1>So this very well maybe the early stages of a

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<v Speaker 1>similar outcome to what we saw earlier on the summer,

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<v Speaker 1>but we're really not adjusting our equity allocations meaningfully. Where

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<v Speaker 1>we see opportunities unfolding during the course of early we're

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<v Speaker 1>entering into the fourth quarter, is on the capacity for

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<v Speaker 1>investors to now more comfortably extend out the risk spectrum

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<v Speaker 1>from a duration perspective, because of your exact point where

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<v Speaker 1>they're finally being compensated after many years where rates and

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<v Speaker 1>you know, we're extremely low and Tina, there is no alternative.

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<v Speaker 1>Was was the prevailing theme. They really have the capacity

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<v Speaker 1>to generate reasonable returns. And so as we came into

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<v Speaker 1>this year, our biggest concern wasn't necessarily an equity market

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<v Speaker 1>draw down, because it's really difficult to forecast near term returns.

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<v Speaker 1>Our longer term concerns were that with low risk assets

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<v Speaker 1>producing negligible yields, diversified portfolios would fall short. We've adjusted

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<v Speaker 1>our expectations in our capital markets assumptions, and so we

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<v Speaker 1>really do believe equities will be volable, and clients are

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<v Speaker 1>comfortable with that. Right, they don't love it, but they're

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<v Speaker 1>accustomed to the volatility that comes with outside levels of return.

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<v Speaker 1>What they now are getting optimistic about is your exact

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<v Speaker 1>point of being able to generate attractive levels of income

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<v Speaker 1>that is considerably higher. And as a counterintuitive as it seems,

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<v Speaker 1>the sharp and quick policy adjustment rather than a prolonged

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<v Speaker 1>bleed where interest rates grind higher over an extended period

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<v Speaker 1>of time, or certainly they stay low into perpetuity, is

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<v Speaker 1>actually the best outcome for compounding income. So it's not

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<v Speaker 1>all negativity. Al Right, Well, let's let's say you know,

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<v Speaker 1>one thing that Brian and I have been noticing of

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<v Speaker 1>late is the amount of people and guests that we've

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<v Speaker 1>had on the program suggesting that they are seeing liquiditcy

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<v Speaker 1>just perhaps coming out of the system. Are you seeing

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<v Speaker 1>that and would you attribute to that to q T well?

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<v Speaker 1>And could I just piggyback a little bit on the

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<v Speaker 1>back of that, is that even if there is liquidity,

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<v Speaker 1>it's the spreads that have widened, you see, you're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>that in different segments. Look, I found today to be

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<v Speaker 1>really interesting where it does seems if a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the activity that we were seeing even late last last

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<v Speaker 1>week we saw several days were in the morning session

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<v Speaker 1>or early on around seven eight am, you would see,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a considerable move higher in the ten year

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<v Speaker 1>and for for most of this move, the back end

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<v Speaker 1>ten out of thirties had really been pretty anchored. A

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<v Speaker 1>lot of the activity and volatility, the increase has been

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<v Speaker 1>in the two year really the front end of the curve.

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<v Speaker 1>I think a lot of what we're seeing today play

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<v Speaker 1>out is that much of what we've been experiencing has

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<v Speaker 1>been around trying to position for some of these shocks

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<v Speaker 1>in the system that really today leads many to believe

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<v Speaker 1>that this was a you know, more driven by some

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<v Speaker 1>of the foreign illiquidity than what we're seeing in the

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<v Speaker 1>treasury market. I don't think it's great, but I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think we're at an instance or an intest where we

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<v Speaker 1>were seeing a breakdown, and I think one of the

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<v Speaker 1>areas to look at as well as certainly within credit

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<v Speaker 1>spreads on the investment grade side, we're really not seeing,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the type of gap conditions that you would

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<v Speaker 1>expect given the movement and activity that we're seeing across

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the treasury curve. But it's certainly something that

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<v Speaker 1>I think bears watching. But you know, it's days like

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<v Speaker 1>today where you're never gonna get the timing right and

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<v Speaker 1>there's going to be meaningful action. But you know, from

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<v Speaker 1>our vantage point, directionally, you're starting to receive compensation for

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<v Speaker 1>extending duration. And we've been asking this to everybody too.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, you're you're seeing volatility, but not financial system instability. Correct, Correct,

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<v Speaker 1>You're not seeing the instability. And I think a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of the stems from the fact that there's a tremendous

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<v Speaker 1>degree of pessimism, and at times you almost question is

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<v Speaker 1>there a lot of pessimism because we're looking at negative

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<v Speaker 1>equity markets, or is there pessimism because there's real deterioration

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<v Speaker 1>in the overall economic environment. And I think it's more

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<v Speaker 1>a function of the volatility. Okay, Michael, thanks very much, Shu.

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<v Speaker 1>Up against the clock, coming up to the top of

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<v Speaker 1>the hour. Michael hands his chief investment officer at Calarfield

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<v Speaker 1>Citizen's Wealth Private Wealth. This is Bloomberg