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Speaker 3: If you learn anything today listening to Bloomberg Radio, and
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Speaker 3: do this.
Speaker 2: Learn this.
Speaker 3: The economy that matters most is not national. This is
Speaker 3: the most important story you're going to read on the
Speaker 3: terminal or online if you care about this race and
Speaker 3: the seven swing states we have been talking about for
Speaker 3: months that are going to decide this election. The economy
Speaker 3: is not a monolith. Sean Donnan and his colleagues are
Speaker 3: out with an incredible piece of journalism today and the
Speaker 3: big take. This is world class stuff. This is journalism
Speaker 3: you don't do overnight.
Speaker 2: Here.
Speaker 3: It's a remarkable piece that combines anecdotal evidence in the
Speaker 3: swing states with hard data that you would expect from Bloomberg.
Speaker 3: These seven states home to sixty one million people a
Speaker 3: combined gross domestic product in twenty twenty three of four
Speaker 3: point four trillion dollars, showing economic cracks that could prove
Speaker 3: a political obstacle for Vice President Kamala Harris. As I
Speaker 3: read in the story, Shawn's with us at the table
Speaker 3: right now, it's great to see you.
Speaker 2: Congrats on a great story here. In fact, it's about
Speaker 2: one hundred.
Speaker 3: Stories and one well, at least seven if you want
Speaker 3: to see a real great marriage, as I said, of
Speaker 3: data and anecdotal journalism, this is it. Let's start in
Speaker 3: the blue Wall states. What do our listeners need to
Speaker 3: know about the difference in these economies Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania
Speaker 3: and where some of us may live.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: Look, there's a fundamental thing that we found here, and
Speaker 5: that is that those blue Wall states, which are the
Speaker 5: kind of the core of the campaign right now, that's
Speaker 5: where the Democrats are focused and where the Republicans are
Speaker 5: hoping to exploit some weaknesses. And the reality is they've
Speaker 5: grown since twenty nineteen at a third of the rate
Speaker 5: of the rest of the United States when you adjust
Speaker 5: for inflation and population changes and so on. And that
Speaker 5: means that you know, when Joe Biden was the candidate,
Speaker 5: and when he was out there talking about the great
Speaker 5: and this remarkable national recovery that we've seen in the
Speaker 5: economy from the pandemic recession, he was talking about a
Speaker 5: national recovery. But in the Blue Wall, that story looks
Speaker 5: very different. And in particularly we went to a place
Speaker 5: called Erie County. That place has been one of the
Speaker 5: slowest places to recover from the pandemic recession. By the
Speaker 5: end of twenty twenty two, which is the last data
Speaker 5: we have available, it was actually three point two two
Speaker 5: percent smaller that economy once you adjust for inflation, than
Speaker 5: it was before the pandemic.
Speaker 3: Well, you guys spent time and you mentioned Erie County.
Speaker 3: You went there and talked to real people, which is
Speaker 3: why partly this story is wonderful. One of them was
Speaker 3: Curtis Jones Junior, former Erie Democratic City councilman. Here's what
Speaker 3: he had to say.
Speaker 6: We see projects, we see economic development happening, but don't
Speaker 6: always say, oh, that's because of the Biden administration or
Speaker 6: it's because of the governor. Like most people weren't thinking
Speaker 6: that way. The average person is struggling. It's an interesting dichog,
Speaker 6: almost like the tail of two cities. Right. So you've
Speaker 6: got funding for business development economic development projects in our downtown,
Speaker 6: but we're also seeing regrettably an increased number of un
Speaker 6: housed and under housed in our community. Individual households are
Speaker 6: struggling significantly because of the cost increases.
Speaker 3: Really interesting take here, and there are two numbers that
Speaker 3: are off the important about erie that you point out.
Speaker 3: One GDP per capita three point two percent smaller by
Speaker 3: the end of twenty two than it was in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 3: The other one is Joe Biden won the county by
Speaker 3: only fourteen hundred votes in twenty twenty. Yeah, you've put
Speaker 3: those together. You've got a challenge.
Speaker 5: You've got a challenge. You've also got a continuing challenge
Speaker 5: in that the manufacturing sector there hasn't seen the recovery
Speaker 5: that you've seen or the increase in jobs that you've
Speaker 5: seen some of the Sun Belt states like Georgia and
Speaker 5: Arizona and so on. It's a place that's continuing to
Speaker 5: lose population as well. So you know, the unemployment rate
Speaker 5: looks at a historic low, but there's ten percent fewer
Speaker 5: people working in factories than there were just ten years ago.
Speaker 2: That's incredible.
Speaker 3: So talk to us more about the sun Belt states
Speaker 3: because we've been hearing that there could be a new
Speaker 3: path here for this heris ticket.
Speaker 2: It's different than Biden. And yes it's Georgia.
Speaker 3: It's also Arizona where you find that the housing squeeze
Speaker 3: is still severe.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 5: No, Look, if you look at Arizona, which has been
Speaker 5: the real outperformer in terms of the Swing states in
Speaker 5: terms of growth, So in terms of real GDP per
Speaker 5: capita growth, they grew about twelve percent between twenty nineteen
Speaker 5: and the end of twenty three. That's good, right, and
Speaker 5: a lot of that is a result of investment in
Speaker 5: new chips plants. There a big increase in the population there.
Speaker 5: But again, when you start looking on the ground, you
Speaker 5: start finding housing costs have gone up remarkably. They've doubled
Speaker 5: since twenty nineteen. For a median household in a place
Speaker 5: like Arizona or Nevada, they were paying eighteen to twenty
Speaker 5: percent of their income on their mortgage on a median
Speaker 5: house in twenty nineteen, that's now up around thirty six
Speaker 5: thirty seven percent in those states. That's a meaningful difference
Speaker 5: for most families in terms of just getting some shelter
Speaker 5: over them.
Speaker 4: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Absolutely.
Speaker 3: We like to say on Bloomberg that context matters, and
Speaker 3: this is a pretty great example of a Congrats on
Speaker 3: a great piece, John, Thanks for talking with us here
Speaker 3: on Balance of Power.
Speaker 5: Thanks so much for having me.
Speaker 3: I find it of course on the podcast as well
Speaker 3: on the terminal and online. A great story here on
Speaker 3: the Big Take that I encourage you to check out
Speaker 3: to have a better not just to sound smart at
Speaker 3: the cocktail party, that'll be the case too, but to
Speaker 3: have a better understanding of these debates that we have
Speaker 3: every day on this program.
Speaker 2: Each of these states brings a.
Speaker 3: Different component and a different challenge to both campaigns, as
Speaker 3: it's born out in the data, as well as the
Speaker 3: real human beings we talk to. Speaking of real human beings,
Speaker 3: we have two of them on our great panel today.
Speaker 3: It's time to assemble. Genie Shanzo, Bloomberg Politics contributor of course,
Speaker 3: Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of
Speaker 3: the Presidency in Congress, and political science professor at Iona University.
Speaker 3: Moragi Lespie's here too, Republican strategist and founder of Bluestack Strategies.
Speaker 3: Wonderful panel and great to see you both. Welcome today, Genie.
Speaker 3: I'd like to ask you about some of what we
Speaker 3: just learned. This is fascinating to me as you make
Speaker 3: your way through the Blue Wall through the sun Belts.
Speaker 3: Each state has a different economic story to tell, and
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris is going to find out firsthand as she
Speaker 3: travels to these states this week that their economies are
Speaker 3: not in many cases keeping up with the rest of
Speaker 3: the country. If the swing states are going to decide
Speaker 3: this election, Genie, how does Kamala Harris win with that
Speaker 3: in mind?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 7: Can I first say, I need to have Sean come
Speaker 7: talk to my students about great data driven journalism, because this,
Speaker 7: to your point, is a great piece. And I think
Speaker 7: what Kamala Harris does have this challenge on the economy.
Speaker 7: Regardless about how well received she has been, people still
Speaker 7: give the Republicans and Donald Trump much higher numbers on
Speaker 7: the economy. This has been the story of this election,
Speaker 7: pre Kamala Harris's ascension and post and I think the
Speaker 7: irony of this race is that regardless of how sour
Speaker 7: people are on the economy, Donald Trump hasn't yet been
Speaker 7: able to use that, and it's only been a few
Speaker 7: weeks against Kamala Harris. And we saw this on display yesterday,
Speaker 7: right when he starts to talk about economic issues, he
Speaker 7: seems to get distracted by things like round sizes and
Speaker 7: his hate for Brian Kemp. And you know, part of
Speaker 7: the irony is that you can think of almost any
Speaker 7: traditional Republican candidate being able to make this case on
Speaker 7: the economy against Kamala Harris. But because Donald Trump is
Speaker 7: so distracted by the things he really cares about, like
Speaker 7: crowd size or you know, the fact that you know
Speaker 7: he can't figure out, you know, things about the election
Speaker 7: being stolen in comparisons between Alabama and Mississippi and twenty twenty,
Speaker 7: that he doesn't talk about the economy and the way
Speaker 7: he should. And so that's where Kamala Harris gets this advantage.
Speaker 3: Maura, Does Jenny have a point there? Staying on the
Speaker 3: economy is productive when you look at the map here
Speaker 3: for Donald Trump, because otherwise we're talking about advantage Trump
Speaker 3: in all of these states, aren't we Absolutely?
Speaker 8: And I think Jennie makes you a point that he
Speaker 8: does get so distracted. So sometimes I kind of tally
Speaker 8: watching yesterday, I thought, does he actually want to win?
Speaker 8: Because if he talked about the economy, talked about safety
Speaker 8: and security, those are two policy issues that are going
Speaker 8: to be very important come November. And yet he gets
Speaker 8: himself all spun up about the media not reporting his
Speaker 8: accurate crowd sizes, comparing himself to having the same crowd
Speaker 8: size as Martin Luther Pan Junior, and as I have
Speaker 8: a dream speech. I mean, these are things that I
Speaker 8: believe in about five ten years we're going to look back.
Speaker 8: I cannot believe that this is what was said by
Speaker 8: the not only for president, but somebody who is leading
Speaker 8: the pack here to become the next president. So if
Speaker 8: Republicans watching this who are running down ballot could just
Speaker 8: focus on the economy, their policy issue that would be
Speaker 8: strong for reelection or for election, then they will do
Speaker 8: well come November. I don't know, like I said the
Speaker 8: same about Donald Trump, but I do think that Republicans
Speaker 8: should be really focused on those two main issues and
Speaker 8: campaigning on those to make an come November.
Speaker 3: You know, Genie, I'm struck by the presence of COVID
Speaker 3: in the data here, the seven swing states have a
Speaker 3: disproportionate share of their population living in counties that had
Speaker 3: not yet recovered to their pre pandemic levels. We're talking
Speaker 3: GDP yere by the end of twenty twenty two. And
Speaker 3: when you isolate those counties that did not recover to
Speaker 3: their pre pandemic level, a vast majority of them were
Speaker 3: carried by Donald Trump in the twenty twenty election. That
Speaker 3: could happen again here, correct.
Speaker 7: It absolutely could. I mean, the numbers are on his
Speaker 7: side when you look at the public opinion poll numbers.
Speaker 7: I mean, and people really do think that if they
Speaker 7: are asked who they trust more with their economy, it
Speaker 7: is going to be Donald Trump and the GOP. And
Speaker 7: I think what Kamala Harris needs to try to do
Speaker 7: is to talk specifically about what Donald Trump has said
Speaker 7: his plans are. Most economists say his plans as he
Speaker 7: has laid them out are inflation are. So if we
Speaker 7: do get a FED cut in interest rates come September,
Speaker 7: that'll be a point for Harris and Biden to celebrate that.
Speaker 7: Many Americans will likely see that as a sign that
Speaker 7: inflation is going down and in the right direction. We're
Speaker 7: moving in the right direction, and so you know, this
Speaker 7: would be something that they could use and juxtapose what
Speaker 7: his plans are versus her plans. But again, it's not
Speaker 7: something she's going to have to address until and unless
Speaker 7: he starts to talk about the economy specifically. And I
Speaker 7: would just add his job has become harder since she
Speaker 7: is ascended, because of course, now even though she's from
Speaker 7: the incumbent administration, she can talk about what she plans
Speaker 7: to do as president. She doesn't have as much defending
Speaker 7: to do as a Joe Biden would have.
Speaker 3: Is it just about talking about the economy, Mara. Donald
Speaker 3: Trump can criticize Joe Biden clearly when it comes to
Speaker 3: these data all day long. Or does he need a
Speaker 3: plan on how to low prices? What's his inflation plan?
Speaker 3: So far, all we've heard is drill, Baby, drill.
Speaker 8: For are the MAGA supporters. He can just continue to
Speaker 8: hit on the Harris Biden Biden Harris administration and the
Speaker 8: ways that he believes they destroyed our economy. He can
Speaker 8: hit on that all day long, and MAGA will come
Speaker 8: out for him and will rally behind that messaging. But
Speaker 8: I think for those voters who are not, so can
Speaker 8: Don Trump, but really don't see any path that they're
Speaker 8: going to over Kamala Harris. He needs to try and
Speaker 8: reach them and convince them to vote for him as
Speaker 8: opposed to a third party or a write in opportunity.
Speaker 8: There So he needs to talk about what it is
Speaker 8: that he plans on actually doing. Again, I watching some
Speaker 8: of these rallies in Georgia, watching yesterday's speech or press conference,
Speaker 8: it makes you feel as though he doesn't actually want
Speaker 8: to be president. He just wants to span fare around him,
Speaker 8: having the attention and having people you know fairly or
Speaker 8: kindly talk about him in the media. And unfortunately for
Speaker 8: the American people, that's going to be a problem. We
Speaker 8: against an administration which is not reflective of what he
Speaker 8: had in twenty twenty sixteen. Most of those people he
Speaker 8: had with him are gone. So what is it that
Speaker 8: he plans to do should he become president and who
Speaker 8: is he bringing in with him? I mean, I think
Speaker 8: these are questions that voters really need to get a
Speaker 8: handle on before they get to the polls in November.
Speaker 3: Well, I find it really interesting to put a cap
Speaker 3: on this conversation about the swing states and their economies
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris and Tim Wallas today are in Arizona and Nevada.
Speaker 3: Donald Trump is in Bozeman, Montana, And I'll just leave
Speaker 3: that there for right now.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 3: Welcome to the fastest show in politics, the Friday edition
Speaker 3: of Balance of Power Live from Washington. You made it
Speaker 3: to the threshold of the weekend as the campaigns continued travel.
Speaker 3: We've got a couple of big ones today, importantly the
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris Tim Walls campaign, sticking to the swing states
Speaker 3: we've been talking about so much, Arizona and Nevada today,
Speaker 3: where Donald Trump interestingly is in Bozeman, Montana for his
Speaker 3: one rally of the week here raising questions about the
Speaker 3: travel schedule, not to mention the deployment of resources in
Speaker 3: other areas. That's where we start with Gregory Cordy, Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Politics Reporter.
Speaker 2: It's great to see Gregory.
Speaker 3: These are obviously valuable days for both campaigns. And as
Speaker 3: we watch the Democratic ticket do six swing states this week,
Speaker 3: how is the Trump campaign managing itself in Montana?
Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems almost like an October fever that we
Speaker 2: have and it's only August.
Speaker 9: You know.
Speaker 2: Look, this was a question that form President Trump was
Speaker 2: asked at his news conference yesterday in mar Lago. He
Speaker 2: got testy at the question. The question was, you know,
Speaker 2: why aren't you in this swing states? He says, Look,
Speaker 2: I'm here, I'm talking to you, I'm campaigning from mar Logo,
Speaker 2: I'm on the phone all the time. But you know,
Speaker 2: the two most valuable things that any campaign has is
Speaker 2: one is the hard money, the dollars the campaign contributions
Speaker 2: to put up TV ads, And the other is the
Speaker 2: candidate's time and where the candidate spends his or her time.
Speaker 2: Says a lot about which how they see the map,
Speaker 2: which voters they're trying to motivate. And at this point,
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris and Tim Walls are working the swing states
Speaker 2: and Donald Trump is working mar Lago, and as you
Speaker 2: point out, Montana, which is very important in the Senate context. Right,
Speaker 2: But I think both parties would agree they'd much rather
Speaker 2: have the White House.
Speaker 3: So let's talk about this news conference. By the way,
Speaker 3: it was a news conference. There were actual reporters questions,
Speaker 3: which is not always.
Speaker 2: Including one from our own Nancy Cook, who was there.
Speaker 2: That's right.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the couple of planted questions too, I understand from
Speaker 3: some of the folks who were there, asking about various things.
Speaker 3: But we played the greatest hits here. I don't think
Speaker 3: Hannibal lecture made an appearance, but all the other stuff
Speaker 3: did here, including crowd sizes. We're doing crowd so he's
Speaker 3: talking about mlk's crowd size for the iyead of a
Speaker 3: dream speech. Isn't that the definition of a distraction ed?
Speaker 2: You remember a couple of weeks ago we were in
Speaker 2: Milwaukee at the Republican Convention. We were talking about how
Speaker 2: after the assassination attempt, the attempt on Trump's life, he
Speaker 2: was going to be a sort of a new candidate.
Speaker 2: He was going to have a sort of rhetoric. He
Speaker 2: was going to downplay all of the those sort of
Speaker 2: greatest hits that you're talking about. And of course, you know,
Speaker 2: we're right back to the same Trump. He can't help himself.
Speaker 2: It doesn't matter whether it's a rally or a convention
Speaker 2: nomination acceptance speech or a press conference. He's going to
Speaker 2: go back to some of those same themes as as
Speaker 2: he always does, you know, and his divergences. We didn't get,
Speaker 2: as you said, Hannimal elector. We did get a little
Speaker 2: bit of an aside on the acoustics of mar A Lago.
Speaker 3: How much it was worth eighteen million?
Speaker 2: Eighteen million is according to that room, I think, Yeah,
Speaker 2: so it's this is the Trump we have come to
Speaker 2: know as Americans.
Speaker 3: The Trump you're gonna get apparently attempted assassination or not.
Speaker 3: But we're playing with some pretty hot stuff here. It's
Speaker 3: not just crowd sizes, it's racial tropes, it's stolen valor.
Speaker 2: Is this the campaign? Again? This goes back to I
Speaker 2: think the comment I made earlier, like this feels like October.
Speaker 2: These are October level attack.
Speaker 3: October's in five minutes, by the way, and we are
Speaker 3: in the sprint.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 2: This is the fast forward time. Absolutely. Although you know,
Speaker 2: there used to be a day I'm old enough to
Speaker 2: remember when before Labor Day, both parties kind of thought, well,
Speaker 2: people aren't really paying attention. Yeah right, you know, we'll
Speaker 2: do some organizational work. I keep hearing that, actually, but no,
Speaker 2: it is with the dog days. We haven't even had
Speaker 2: the Democratic Convention yet, and these kind of fever pitch
Speaker 2: attacks which have become more common in American politics over
Speaker 2: the past decade or so. Certainly Trump has contributed to it,
Speaker 2: but you know, to be fair, Democrats also have engaged
Speaker 2: in some somewhat crude insinuations about JD. Vance, which I'm
Speaker 2: not going to repeat here, but I think people can
Speaker 2: probably use their imagination it's a furniture related I know, yeah,
Speaker 2: something I have attack. I heard that. You know, this
Speaker 2: is the state of our politics now.
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, so let's talk about the Democrats more for
Speaker 3: a minute, because Klina Harris getting a lot of criticism,
Speaker 3: and you could even argue the main reason why Donald
Speaker 3: Trump did that yesterday is because people want her to
Speaker 3: have a news conference stand there for forty five minutes,
Speaker 3: or an our take question sit down, have a hard
Speaker 3: hitting interview with a journalist. I don't know if they're
Speaker 3: at the point yet where they have to do this.
Speaker 3: As you said, we're going into the convention. There are
Speaker 3: a lot of things happening. They're introducing a running mate,
Speaker 3: but there is something real to that.
Speaker 2: Well, yes, and as you know, because you have been
Speaker 2: in this business a long time too, that the longer
Speaker 2: she goes without doing it, the more the bubble inflates.
Speaker 3: The harder that interview will be stations.
Speaker 2: Fall on that in or that press conference or whatever
Speaker 2: venue would take. She did take some questions, a few
Speaker 2: of them on the tarmac yesterday, I think it was.
Speaker 2: But yeah, look, this is she has won the Democratic
Speaker 2: nomination for president without a single delegate voting or a
Speaker 2: single primary caucus voter voting for one of her delegates.
Speaker 2: Those delegates have now switched over to her. But she
Speaker 2: has not had to make the case in the same
Speaker 2: grueling primary process that we usually put our presidential candidates
Speaker 2: through of why she's the best candidate for president of
Speaker 2: the United States. She is not on the record on
Speaker 2: a number of different questions of how her views of
Speaker 2: the world may differ from the person who she has
Speaker 2: served under as president and Joe Biden, And so yeah,
Speaker 2: those questions are going to mount until she starts to
Speaker 2: go out and answer some of them. I still say
Speaker 2: they take the edge off by doing it. Sit down
Speaker 2: with the two of them, right.
Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, Tim Wall, sit down with the friendly whatever,
Speaker 3: do entertainment, whatever you gotta do, and then and then
Speaker 3: follow it up.
Speaker 2: With the hard hitting interview. You start with the I
Speaker 2: am getting campaign advice on it. Do a little bit
Speaker 2: of lifestyle.
Speaker 3: Dare I say couch? You said, do the couch interview
Speaker 3: on the morning show. Right, that's what's coming, Okay, campaign
Speaker 3: advice from Gregor.
Speaker 2: Recording, not me.
Speaker 3: It's great to see you, Bloomberg politics reporter. Not your job, indeed,
Speaker 3: but he covers politics the best of them, and it's
Speaker 3: great to have you at the table always, Greigory, I'm Joe,
Speaker 3: Matthew and Washington. As we recall the news conference at
Speaker 3: mar A Lago, you saw and heard it live in
Speaker 3: its entirety. Well, we were just talking about this a
Speaker 3: short time ago. Here's a taste of Donald Trump holding
Speaker 3: forth with reporters at mari A Lago.
Speaker 10: If you look at January sixth, which a lot of
Speaker 10: people aren't talking about very much, I think those people
Speaker 10: were treated very harshly when you compare them to other
Speaker 10: things that took place in this country where a lot
Speaker 10: of people were killed. Nobody was killed on January six
Speaker 10: Of course, there'll be a peaceful transfer, and there was
Speaker 10: last time, and there'll be a peaceful transfer. I just
Speaker 10: hope we're going to have honest elections. So I think
Speaker 10: the abortion issue has written very much tempered down. Nobody's
Speaker 10: spoke into crowds bigger than me. If you look at
Speaker 10: Martin Luther King when he did his speech, his great speech,
Speaker 10: and you look at ours, same real estate, same everything,
Speaker 10: same number of people.
Speaker 1: If not, we had more.
Speaker 3: To think that was out of an hour, we could
Speaker 3: keep playing things for quite a while. The Associated Press,
Speaker 3: by the way, did a little bit of homework on that.
Speaker 3: For the record, Martin Luther King Junior's crowd that day
Speaker 3: was twenty five times larger than Donald Trump's was on
Speaker 3: the sixth of January, not to mention some of the
Speaker 3: other things that happened that day. As he refers to
Speaker 3: a peaceful transition of power. This is where we start
Speaker 3: our conversation with the gentleman from Maryland. Congressman Glenn Ivy
Speaker 3: is with US Democrat representing Maryland's fourth District, which I
Speaker 3: drive through every day on my way to work. Congressman,
Speaker 3: it's great to see you, Thanks for coming in, thanks
Speaker 3: for having me. It's a pleasure to have you in
Speaker 3: person here. I'm not going to drag you through this
Speaker 3: campaign stuff for our entire conversation, because there are a
Speaker 3: couple of issues I'd really like to hit with you.
Speaker 2: Start there.
Speaker 3: The rhetoric that we're hearing in this campaign is one
Speaker 3: that's concerning.
Speaker 2: A lot of folks.
Speaker 3: Is we're now regressing in serracial tropes, stolen valor the
Speaker 3: rest that you're hearing along with us. How does the
Speaker 3: Harris Walls campaign respond to that?
Speaker 9: Well, so far, I think they've been able to almost
Speaker 9: ignore it because many of those comments contain critiques within themselves.
Speaker 9: I mean, I think it depends up to see how
Speaker 9: things play out and if he keeps doing press conferences
Speaker 9: like the one yesterday where it's just one bizarre statement
Speaker 9: after another.
Speaker 2: The January sixth.
Speaker 9: Comments, for example, where you've had I think over a
Speaker 9: thousand people have been convicted of criminal offenses, some for
Speaker 9: sedition and things like that. He keeps trying to downplay
Speaker 9: these things and that like they were just tourists there
Speaker 9: that day, but that's obviously preposterous. So you know, he'll
Speaker 9: keep undermining his own campaign the way your commentators talked
Speaker 9: about previously. I'm pleased with the way Harris and Walls
Speaker 9: are focusing on issues. I think American voters are more
Speaker 9: interested in hearing about some of which you just touched
Speaker 9: on a few minutes ago, like the economy. Yeah, and
Speaker 9: I think we have to, you know, stay on our track.
Speaker 9: And I don't know if they'll ever get on track themselves,
Speaker 9: but I think it's we're going in the right direction.
Speaker 3: Should Governor Walls clarify some of the questions about his
Speaker 3: military career? Is that part of the campaign?
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's talked about that some.
Speaker 9: You know, My view so far is that, you know,
Speaker 9: I think the focus has been on the use of
Speaker 9: the term war. You know, the United States was at
Speaker 9: war essentially with you know, over in Afghanistan at the time,
Speaker 9: so I think it's factually correct on its face. But
Speaker 9: the larger piece, you know, he was in I think
Speaker 9: the Guard for twenty four years if I'm not mistaken,
Speaker 9: and he left.
Speaker 3: Two months before his unit deployed to a rock. They're
Speaker 3: saying that he abandoned his brothers on arms. That's a
Speaker 3: heavy charge.
Speaker 9: It's a heavy charge. I think he left to run
Speaker 9: for Congress. I thought it was ten months too, but
Speaker 9: maybe I've got the wrong number. But the bottom line
Speaker 9: is there's no indication of any kind of misconduct or
Speaker 9: stolen valor or anything along those lines. And when you
Speaker 9: contrast that with Donald Trump, who pretty much ducked out
Speaker 9: on service during the Vietnam era, he got the doctor
Speaker 9: in his father's building to give him a bone spurs Deferral,
Speaker 9: I don't know.
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's yeah, I don't know if
Speaker 2: he can cast the first stone.
Speaker 3: So well, you wonder if they're trying to encourage that debate,
Speaker 3: which would be curious.
Speaker 2: Congressman.
Speaker 3: I guess broadly though, we're talking about they call this
Speaker 3: the vibes campaign. There's this new energy that has changed
Speaker 3: the ground under our feet.
Speaker 2: You can speak to that as you wish.
Speaker 3: You're a Democrat, I'm sure you're very excited about what's happening,
Speaker 3: But have.
Speaker 2: You ever seen a moment like this.
Speaker 3: We're an aircraft carrier of a presidential campaign turned on
Speaker 3: a dime.
Speaker 2: No, this has been in two weeks.
Speaker 9: Yeah, this is pretty dramatic. And you know, the Obama
Speaker 9: campaign in eight had similar kinds of energy, but it
Speaker 9: took a long time for it to ramp up to
Speaker 9: the point a little bit nineteen sixty eight Bobby Kennedy,
Speaker 9: just as he was hitting his stride before he was assassinated.
Speaker 9: But that's kind of it in my recollection. And you know,
Speaker 9: I think she's doing a couple things with that that
Speaker 9: are positive. One is she's sustaining it. It looks like
Speaker 9: the walls pick. I know there were some people that
Speaker 9: wanted other selections, but it looks like it's worked out
Speaker 9: very well and sort of rallied the troops in any event,
Speaker 9: including you know, people who wanted other candidates to be picked.
Speaker 9: And I think she's also continuing to dominate the media.
Speaker 9: I think part of the reason Trump had the press
Speaker 9: conference yesterday was he's been sidelined in part by his
Speaker 9: own silly comments, but also because of the rise of
Speaker 9: her campaign, and I think he's trying to figure out
Speaker 9: a way to get back into it. They had advance
Speaker 9: following them around for a couple of days, kind of.
Speaker 2: Jose pressed up against the window.
Speaker 9: Yeah, it was kind of funny, but you know it's
Speaker 9: clear that they're a little desperate and confused about how
Speaker 9: to go forward.
Speaker 3: She need to hold the news conference, do some of
Speaker 3: these interviews. That's the challenge right now, is that she's
Speaker 3: not answering questions.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind her doing that.
Speaker 9: I think it's there's going to be a plenty of
Speaker 9: time for a variety of types of news conferences like that.
Speaker 9: But the introducing herself and her vice presidential candidate, I
Speaker 9: think are the way to go right now. So I
Speaker 9: like the speeches in the battleground states, The big rallies
Speaker 9: make sense. Continuing to push the high energy events make
Speaker 9: a lot of sense, and you know she can ride
Speaker 9: that out.
Speaker 2: I think going forward.
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about the Senate race in Maryland.
Speaker 3: You've endorsed Angela also Brooks, who's running against a Republican
Speaker 3: who's not talking a lot like a Republican. Larry Hogan,
Speaker 3: you're a former governor, is criticizing Donald Trump.
Speaker 2: Is very disappointed.
Speaker 3: He said by the news conference, we need to do
Speaker 3: is focus on the issues. He held a news conference
Speaker 3: or an interview, I should say, rather with punch bowl,
Speaker 3: and he was talking about his opponent, Angela Also Brooks,
Speaker 3: of course, Prince George's county executive who's running for an
Speaker 3: historic candidacy for Senate. Larry Hogan said, my opponent really
Speaker 3: wants to make this about red versus blue, just Democrat
Speaker 3: versus Republican. Probably take the names off the ballots and
Speaker 3: all of our records and say you have to vote blue.
Speaker 2: Our campaign, he.
Speaker 3: Says, is about red, white and blue. Is there some
Speaker 3: truth to that?
Speaker 9: Not on the ads that I've seen, the ads I've seen.
Speaker 9: He's running as a Democrat basically, so he said yesterday,
Speaker 9: I saw one of his ads is choosing people over politics.
Speaker 9: Now that is the House Democrats slogan for this cycle
Speaker 9: that we hear from Haakim Jefferys. Yeah, exactly. And then
Speaker 9: he's he talked about abortion.
Speaker 3: So he's not a real Republican, that is what you're saying.
Speaker 9: Well, he certainly isn't running on their issues, and he's
Speaker 9: a million miles away from you know what Donald Trump's
Speaker 9: focus could be. I suppose, given what his commentaries have been.
Speaker 9: The problem is twofold one is his record, which is
Speaker 9: I think more significant than what he's saying now. He
Speaker 9: was never supportive, particularly of abortion rights, and so he's
Speaker 9: able to get away with that because it's races for
Speaker 9: governor occurred before Dobbs repealed Roby Wade. Now he can't
Speaker 9: do that, and the big problem he's got is that
Speaker 9: if he does get elected, he's already said he would
Speaker 9: sit with the Republican caucus. What that would mean is
Speaker 9: fifty one votes. That has an impact on future Supreme
Speaker 9: Court selections, which certainly Democrats in Maryland are troubled by
Speaker 9: what Trump's done to the Supreme Court already. And then
Speaker 9: on the abortion issue, which there's a huge wing in
Speaker 9: the Republican Party that really wants to nationalize the bands
Speaker 9: that have taken place in some states. And then you
Speaker 9: get to gun violence and other issues along those lines
Speaker 9: where you know the Republicans, for example, just on guns,
Speaker 9: ghost guns, you know, you can't get one Republican co
Speaker 9: sponsor to banned ghost guns in the House, which is crazy.
Speaker 9: I mean, the only reason you would have a ghost
Speaker 9: gun is if you want to evade prosecution because there's
Speaker 9: no serial numbers.
Speaker 2: These are the guns of the serial number scratch. That's right.
Speaker 9: Guns are made without serial numbers at all, just so
Speaker 9: that you can avoid prosecution. We can't get one republic
Speaker 9: Can co sponsor. He's not going to be able to
Speaker 9: duck those kinds of issues. I don't think as we
Speaker 9: go forward, as.
Speaker 2: You consider all the questions.
Speaker 3: You hear the issues that arise from Oxen Hill from
Speaker 3: your district, and now the need for money to rebuild
Speaker 3: the Francis Scott Key Bridge in our remaining moment. How
Speaker 3: are you going to get that done? Is that in
Speaker 3: the lame duck? Is it next year?
Speaker 2: How do you get No?
Speaker 9: I think the pushes to try and get it done now,
Speaker 9: and obviously what happens in November could have an impact
Speaker 9: on that in a very significant way. We need to
Speaker 9: get the funding up front for the bridge because it's
Speaker 9: going to take years for the insurance cases.
Speaker 2: You need to get this done before the election. Is
Speaker 2: your point?
Speaker 9: Well, well, I'm saying that depending on who wins. I
Speaker 9: don't know what Trump would do if he gets elect
Speaker 9: that would jeopardize funding for the bridge.
Speaker 2: I think it could.
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean he's some of the things that he's
Speaker 9: talked about and the Trump Project twenty twenty five, you know,
Speaker 9: policy positions, we're talking about all kinds of radical changes.
Speaker 9: Another one, the House Republicans came out with a paper
Speaker 9: to eliminate building the new FBI headquarters and shut that
Speaker 9: down even though we've been awarded that in Maryland and
Speaker 9: try and move the whole thing to Alabama, which is like.
Speaker 3: A little to go to Quantico. Yeah, you knows when
Speaker 3: I'm really glad you came in. We want to keep
Speaker 3: tabs with you, and I want to see you in Chicago.
Speaker 3: You're going to be at the DNC, right absolutely. I
Speaker 3: look forward to seeing you there. Let's make a plan
Speaker 3: we'll meet right here on this program. Glenn Ivy, the
Speaker 3: Democrat from Maryland Oxen Hill. As I said, we drive
Speaker 3: through the district every day on our way to work.
Speaker 2: We'll have a lot more ahead. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch
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Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable to think that in one week we're on
Speaker 3: our way to Chicago and we're going to be bringing
Speaker 3: you special coverage show of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.
Speaker 3: With so many issues flying around this campaign, whether it's
Speaker 3: the economy, abortion, the border, or yes, geopolitics, and we
Speaker 3: hear a lot about how voters tend not to key
Speaker 3: their decisions off geopolitical stories, but foreign policy might well
Speaker 3: make the grade, considering two hot wars underway right now,
Speaker 3: not only Ukraine, but great questions about our policy in Israel.
Speaker 3: And you know that, of course, is swirling around the
Speaker 3: Harris campaign, with the potential now for a cease fire.
Speaker 3: I know you've heard me say this before, but we're
Speaker 3: following parallel storylines today in Israel. One is the anticipated
Speaker 3: retaliation from Iran over the killings of Hesbolah and Hamas officials.
Speaker 3: The other is the potential for a cease fire with Hamas,
Speaker 3: with reporting today that the president, leaders of Egypt and
Speaker 3: Cutter say they are prepared to present a final ceasefire proposal.
Speaker 3: If you're reading the terminal, you see that new round
Speaker 3: of ceasefire talks now set for August fifteenth. Very important
Speaker 3: is we had the voice of Maura Rudman, professor at
Speaker 3: the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, director of
Speaker 3: the Ripples of Hope project focused on democratic solutions.
Speaker 2: Mara, it's great to have you back.
Speaker 3: I don't know how you have both of these stories
Speaker 3: existing at once. And I'm going to point you to
Speaker 3: one more headline that crossed the terminal. A short time
Speaker 3: ago from Reuters Biden to lift offensive weapons sales ban
Speaker 3: to Saudi Arabia. When you factor that in, are we
Speaker 3: on the verge of a ceasefire breakthrough?
Speaker 4: We've been at this point before, as you've noted, everything
Speaker 4: is possible, which means that I would say we're at
Speaker 4: an inflection point. We can be moving toward the ceasefire,
Speaker 4: and those are key meetings next week August fifteenth. It's
Speaker 4: also significant that cut Our, Egypt, and the United States
Speaker 4: together put out the statement about pushing for the August
Speaker 4: fifteenth meeting and about presenting a bridging proposal. At the
Speaker 4: same time, it's very unclear what Iran will be doing,
Speaker 4: what hes Glass calculations are, and so the next several
Speaker 4: days are just critical.
Speaker 2: That's for sure.
Speaker 3: I just don't get, and maybe I'm being a little
Speaker 3: too simple here, Mara, how you can strike a cease
Speaker 3: fire while Israel is also bracing for a potential retaliation
Speaker 3: from Iran.
Speaker 2: Are you thinking that won't happen?
Speaker 4: No, I actually I think that the two are actually interlinked.
Speaker 4: I'm going to bring you back to something that Prime
Speaker 4: Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was so tragically assassinated by some
Speaker 4: of the very people related to folks in Bibi Netanyahu's cabinet,
Speaker 4: but Prime Minister Rabine used to talk about fighting for
Speaker 4: peace as if there was no war, and fighting wars
Speaker 4: as if there was no peace, and living in that
Speaker 4: combined space at the same time. Is typical not just
Speaker 4: for this reason, but for many conflicts where you've got
Speaker 4: to look for ways to talk and to get the resolution,
Speaker 4: and at the same time you've got to be prepared
Speaker 4: to fully defend yourself.
Speaker 3: We remember, of course, what happened in April when Iran
Speaker 3: did respond, and the refrain that we've heard across the
Speaker 3: spectrum is that Hesbealah is not looking for a wider war,
Speaker 3: Iran is not looking for a wider war, and of
Speaker 3: course Israel is not.
Speaker 2: Do you believe that to be true?
Speaker 4: Yes, I believe that all of the actors, for a
Speaker 4: variety of reasons, recognize that a wider war is not
Speaker 4: in their interest. Sadly, in this kind of situation, that
Speaker 4: doesn't always mean that their actions will not trigger that
Speaker 4: wider war. And the role of the United States in
Speaker 4: this case, also of Egypt, Katar, the stautias of everyone
Speaker 4: else in the region and throughout the world is to
Speaker 4: try to stress that longer term perspective, to try to
Speaker 4: keep folks away from the trigger finger so as to
Speaker 4: speak and to give incentives to the fullest dicton possible
Speaker 4: to reach forward is an everyone's long term interest, which
Speaker 4: is to avoid this tit for tot.
Speaker 3: Now, well, we're at a moment where a lot could
Speaker 3: happen here. And we remember May thirty first, the day
Speaker 3: that Joe Biden addressed the nation the world from the
Speaker 3: White House with a six point ceasefire plan that he
Speaker 3: said Israel had signed off on. We saw, of course,
Speaker 3: in the days following that Benjamin Netanya, who may have
Speaker 3: signed off on something in principle, what was clearly not
Speaker 3: on board with the details at hand. Why should the
Speaker 3: White House trust him?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 4: So, the White House is working with the State of Israel,
Speaker 4: and it's working as well with Qatars and Egyptians who
Speaker 4: are working with him. As The challenge that all of
Speaker 4: those who are trying to bring about the ceasefire face
Speaker 4: is that there are elements for Primerstahu and for ya
Speaker 4: Ya Sinhar, the head of Hamas where and any kind
Speaker 4: of seasfire agreement is not in their direct immediate political interests,
Speaker 4: and yet for many of the people around them, in
Speaker 4: the case of beating the TYAHUO frankly his entire military
Speaker 4: and security establishment, as well as the people of Israel,
Speaker 4: certainly the families of hostages are pushing very hard for
Speaker 4: the nature and scoping of the ceasefire proposal that has
Speaker 4: been laid out. And in the case of Hamas, it's
Speaker 4: not just the countries around. Many Palestinians in Gaza are
Speaker 4: brave enough, courageous enough to speak out on the record
Speaker 4: about the challenges and how much they need of ceasefire,
Speaker 4: which takes a tremendous amount of risk and peril for them.
Speaker 4: Given the vicious kind of leadership of ya Ya Sinhar.
Speaker 3: We've been surging military assets into the region even more
Speaker 3: than we already had. Mara F twenty two jets now
Speaker 3: included several more destroyers in the region. What are we
Speaker 3: planning for? What are we prepared to do to defend
Speaker 3: Israel if this retaliatory strike does.
Speaker 4: Come well, what we've put into the region is certainly
Speaker 4: a show of force and part of a strong deterrence.
Speaker 4: The strongest deterrence you can mobilize is to show the
Speaker 4: willingness to be able to defend and to help defend,
Speaker 4: and so that is part of what is going on
Speaker 4: right now. Certainly the United States showing with what you've
Speaker 4: described what we are willing to bring into the region
Speaker 4: to help Israel defend itself, and any number of private
Speaker 4: conversations that are going on with players throughout the region.
Speaker 4: As was reported earlier today, the Jordanians, the Saudis, the Egyptians,
Speaker 4: others are all talking to Iran as well about scaling
Speaker 4: this back about the longer term interests of everyone in
Speaker 4: the region. Jordanians have been clear about not using their
Speaker 4: airspace for either side, frankly, which is part of I
Speaker 4: think how the kingdom there is trying to position itself
Speaker 4: to again damp down actions that could really result in
Speaker 4: tragedy across the region.
Speaker 3: Fast forward to August fifteenth, again, the ceasefire talks that
Speaker 3: have been scheduled the US cutter Egypt. Is this Secretary
Speaker 3: of State Anthony Blincoln or is this Bill Burns at
Speaker 3: the table for the United States?
Speaker 2: Do we know?
Speaker 4: It's probably a combination. I think that Bill Burns has
Speaker 4: been the primary leader of this effort of the behind
Speaker 4: the scenes. I think that Brett McGirk, who's at the
Speaker 4: White House at the NSC works for Jake Sullivan, the
Speaker 4: National Security Advisor, is very much kind of day to
Speaker 4: day hands on, but Bill Burns clearly has a whole
Speaker 4: team as well, and I'm sure that Secretary of B
Speaker 4: Lincoln is also very much involved. So it is a
Speaker 4: full seam effort.
Speaker 3: August fifteenth is next Thursday, marow. What's more likely in
Speaker 3: that time that we do have a breakthrough on a
Speaker 3: sea or Iran strikes Israel.
Speaker 4: I don't want to put odds on that kind of situation, honestly.
Speaker 4: What I try to remain focused on is what so
Speaker 4: clearly in the United States interest in Israel's interest, in
Speaker 4: the interests of all those in the region, and absolutely
Speaker 4: for the hostages and their families, which is to reach
Speaker 4: a cease fire deal. And doing so is obviously going
Speaker 4: to be much more possible in the near term if
Speaker 4: there are not actions by heswelar by Iran in this
Speaker 4: intervening time period which will certainly escalate and make a
Speaker 4: ceasefire that much more difficult.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I only have a minute left here tomorrow. We're
Speaker 3: in the throes of an important election here in the
Speaker 3: United States. So what extent would a Trump presidency embrace
Speaker 3: this ceasefire proposal. I'm assuming Kamala Harris would be in
Speaker 3: continuity with Joe Biden.
Speaker 4: I think that's correct in terms of all signs that
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris has given and in terms of a Trump administration.
Speaker 4: Really who knows. He has been all over the place
Speaker 4: on this issue. He was quite harsh to Israel and
Speaker 4: to the Prime Minister immediately after October seventh, in the
Speaker 4: way they're surprising to people. He's also talked in ways he's.
Speaker 11: Not a negotiator, despite his let's make a deal kind
Speaker 11: of aura of the President Trump, He's not used to
Speaker 11: how you create win win situations as opposed to zero sum,
Speaker 11: and this is a situation where you've got to figure
Speaker 11: out ways to get through that.
Speaker 4: Lead to a seatpire deal. So I'm very concerned, perhaps
Speaker 4: not surprisingly about how a Trump administration might handle what
Speaker 4: is going on now and any future in the region.
Speaker 3: From the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, Maura Rudman,
Speaker 3: it's great to have you back.
Speaker 2: Mar Thank you so much for the insights at another
Speaker 2: very important moment here geopolitics.
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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