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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 3: Thanks for being with us on the Friday edition of

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Speaker 3: Ballots of Power. Bloomberg Radio on the satellite and on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Where you can find us now, search Bloomberg Business News

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Speaker 3: Live and you'll find our smiling faces here in the studio.

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Speaker 3: If you learn anything today listening to Bloomberg Radio, and

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Speaker 3: we're going to give you a couple of chances to

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Speaker 3: do this.

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Speaker 2: Learn this.

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Speaker 3: The economy that matters most is not national. This is

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Speaker 3: the most important story you're going to read on the

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Speaker 3: terminal or online if you care about this race and

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Speaker 3: the seven swing states we have been talking about for

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Speaker 3: months that are going to decide this election. The economy

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Speaker 3: is not a monolith. Sean Donnan and his colleagues are

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Speaker 3: out with an incredible piece of journalism today and the

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Speaker 3: big take. This is world class stuff. This is journalism

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Speaker 3: you don't do overnight.

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Speaker 2: Here.

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Speaker 3: It's a remarkable piece that combines anecdotal evidence in the

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Speaker 3: swing states with hard data that you would expect from Bloomberg.

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Speaker 3: These seven states home to sixty one million people a

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Speaker 3: combined gross domestic product in twenty twenty three of four

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Speaker 3: point four trillion dollars, showing economic cracks that could prove

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Speaker 3: a political obstacle for Vice President Kamala Harris. As I

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Speaker 3: read in the story, Shawn's with us at the table

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Speaker 3: right now, it's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: Congrats on a great story here. In fact, it's about

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Speaker 2: one hundred.

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Speaker 3: Stories and one well, at least seven if you want

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Speaker 3: to see a real great marriage, as I said, of

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Speaker 3: data and anecdotal journalism, this is it. Let's start in

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Speaker 3: the blue Wall states. What do our listeners need to

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Speaker 3: know about the difference in these economies Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

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Speaker 3: and where some of us may live.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: Look, there's a fundamental thing that we found here, and

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Speaker 5: that is that those blue Wall states, which are the

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Speaker 5: kind of the core of the campaign right now, that's

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Speaker 5: where the Democrats are focused and where the Republicans are

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Speaker 5: hoping to exploit some weaknesses. And the reality is they've

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Speaker 5: grown since twenty nineteen at a third of the rate

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Speaker 5: of the rest of the United States when you adjust

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Speaker 5: for inflation and population changes and so on. And that

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Speaker 5: means that you know, when Joe Biden was the candidate,

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Speaker 5: and when he was out there talking about the great

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Speaker 5: and this remarkable national recovery that we've seen in the

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Speaker 5: economy from the pandemic recession, he was talking about a

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Speaker 5: national recovery. But in the Blue Wall, that story looks

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Speaker 5: very different. And in particularly we went to a place

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Speaker 5: called Erie County. That place has been one of the

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Speaker 5: slowest places to recover from the pandemic recession. By the

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Speaker 5: end of twenty twenty two, which is the last data

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Speaker 5: we have available, it was actually three point two two

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Speaker 5: percent smaller that economy once you adjust for inflation, than

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Speaker 5: it was before the pandemic.

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Speaker 3: Well, you guys spent time and you mentioned Erie County.

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Speaker 3: You went there and talked to real people, which is

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Speaker 3: why partly this story is wonderful. One of them was

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Speaker 3: Curtis Jones Junior, former Erie Democratic City councilman. Here's what

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Speaker 3: he had to say.

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Speaker 6: We see projects, we see economic development happening, but don't

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Speaker 6: always say, oh, that's because of the Biden administration or

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Speaker 6: it's because of the governor. Like most people weren't thinking

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Speaker 6: that way. The average person is struggling. It's an interesting dichog,

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Speaker 6: almost like the tail of two cities. Right. So you've

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Speaker 6: got funding for business development economic development projects in our downtown,

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Speaker 6: but we're also seeing regrettably an increased number of un

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Speaker 6: housed and under housed in our community. Individual households are

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Speaker 6: struggling significantly because of the cost increases.

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Speaker 3: Really interesting take here, and there are two numbers that

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Speaker 3: are off the important about erie that you point out.

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Speaker 3: One GDP per capita three point two percent smaller by

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Speaker 3: the end of twenty two than it was in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 3: The other one is Joe Biden won the county by

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Speaker 3: only fourteen hundred votes in twenty twenty. Yeah, you've put

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Speaker 3: those together. You've got a challenge.

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Speaker 5: You've got a challenge. You've also got a continuing challenge

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Speaker 5: in that the manufacturing sector there hasn't seen the recovery

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Speaker 5: that you've seen or the increase in jobs that you've

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Speaker 5: seen some of the Sun Belt states like Georgia and

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Speaker 5: Arizona and so on. It's a place that's continuing to

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Speaker 5: lose population as well. So you know, the unemployment rate

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Speaker 5: looks at a historic low, but there's ten percent fewer

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Speaker 5: people working in factories than there were just ten years ago.

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Speaker 2: That's incredible.

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Speaker 3: So talk to us more about the sun Belt states

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Speaker 3: because we've been hearing that there could be a new

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Speaker 3: path here for this heris ticket.

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Speaker 2: It's different than Biden. And yes it's Georgia.

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Speaker 3: It's also Arizona where you find that the housing squeeze

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Speaker 3: is still severe.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 5: No, Look, if you look at Arizona, which has been

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Speaker 5: the real outperformer in terms of the Swing states in

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Speaker 5: terms of growth, So in terms of real GDP per

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Speaker 5: capita growth, they grew about twelve percent between twenty nineteen

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Speaker 5: and the end of twenty three. That's good, right, and

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Speaker 5: a lot of that is a result of investment in

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Speaker 5: new chips plants. There a big increase in the population there.

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Speaker 5: But again, when you start looking on the ground, you

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Speaker 5: start finding housing costs have gone up remarkably. They've doubled

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Speaker 5: since twenty nineteen. For a median household in a place

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Speaker 5: like Arizona or Nevada, they were paying eighteen to twenty

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Speaker 5: percent of their income on their mortgage on a median

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Speaker 5: house in twenty nineteen, that's now up around thirty six

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Speaker 5: thirty seven percent in those states. That's a meaningful difference

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Speaker 5: for most families in terms of just getting some shelter

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Speaker 5: over them.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Absolutely.

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Speaker 3: We like to say on Bloomberg that context matters, and

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Speaker 3: this is a pretty great example of a Congrats on

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Speaker 3: a great piece, John, Thanks for talking with us here

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Speaker 3: on Balance of Power.

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Speaker 5: Thanks so much for having me.

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Speaker 3: I find it of course on the podcast as well

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Speaker 3: on the terminal and online. A great story here on

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Speaker 3: the Big Take that I encourage you to check out

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Speaker 3: to have a better not just to sound smart at

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Speaker 3: the cocktail party, that'll be the case too, but to

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Speaker 3: have a better understanding of these debates that we have

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Speaker 3: every day on this program.

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Speaker 2: Each of these states brings a.

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Speaker 3: Different component and a different challenge to both campaigns, as

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Speaker 3: it's born out in the data, as well as the

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Speaker 3: real human beings we talk to. Speaking of real human beings,

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Speaker 3: we have two of them on our great panel today.

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Speaker 3: It's time to assemble. Genie Shanzo, Bloomberg Politics contributor of course,

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Speaker 3: Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of

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Speaker 3: the Presidency in Congress, and political science professor at Iona University.

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Speaker 3: Moragi Lespie's here too, Republican strategist and founder of Bluestack Strategies.

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Speaker 3: Wonderful panel and great to see you both. Welcome today, Genie.

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Speaker 3: I'd like to ask you about some of what we

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Speaker 3: just learned. This is fascinating to me as you make

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Speaker 3: your way through the Blue Wall through the sun Belts.

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Speaker 3: Each state has a different economic story to tell, and

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris is going to find out firsthand as she

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Speaker 3: travels to these states this week that their economies are

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Speaker 3: not in many cases keeping up with the rest of

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Speaker 3: the country. If the swing states are going to decide

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Speaker 3: this election, Genie, how does Kamala Harris win with that

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Speaker 3: in mind?

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Speaker 4: Well?

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Speaker 7: Can I first say, I need to have Sean come

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Speaker 7: talk to my students about great data driven journalism, because this,

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Speaker 7: to your point, is a great piece. And I think

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Speaker 7: what Kamala Harris does have this challenge on the economy.

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Speaker 7: Regardless about how well received she has been, people still

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Speaker 7: give the Republicans and Donald Trump much higher numbers on

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Speaker 7: the economy. This has been the story of this election,

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Speaker 7: pre Kamala Harris's ascension and post and I think the

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Speaker 7: irony of this race is that regardless of how sour

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Speaker 7: people are on the economy, Donald Trump hasn't yet been

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Speaker 7: able to use that, and it's only been a few

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Speaker 7: weeks against Kamala Harris. And we saw this on display yesterday,

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Speaker 7: right when he starts to talk about economic issues, he

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Speaker 7: seems to get distracted by things like round sizes and

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Speaker 7: his hate for Brian Kemp. And you know, part of

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Speaker 7: the irony is that you can think of almost any

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Speaker 7: traditional Republican candidate being able to make this case on

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Speaker 7: the economy against Kamala Harris. But because Donald Trump is

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Speaker 7: so distracted by the things he really cares about, like

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Speaker 7: crowd size or you know, the fact that you know

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Speaker 7: he can't figure out, you know, things about the election

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Speaker 7: being stolen in comparisons between Alabama and Mississippi and twenty twenty,

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Speaker 7: that he doesn't talk about the economy and the way

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Speaker 7: he should. And so that's where Kamala Harris gets this advantage.

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Speaker 3: Maura, Does Jenny have a point there? Staying on the

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Speaker 3: economy is productive when you look at the map here

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Speaker 3: for Donald Trump, because otherwise we're talking about advantage Trump

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Speaker 3: in all of these states, aren't we Absolutely?

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Speaker 8: And I think Jennie makes you a point that he

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Speaker 8: does get so distracted. So sometimes I kind of tally

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Speaker 8: watching yesterday, I thought, does he actually want to win?

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Speaker 8: Because if he talked about the economy, talked about safety

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Speaker 8: and security, those are two policy issues that are going

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Speaker 8: to be very important come November. And yet he gets

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Speaker 8: himself all spun up about the media not reporting his

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Speaker 8: accurate crowd sizes, comparing himself to having the same crowd

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Speaker 8: size as Martin Luther Pan Junior, and as I have

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Speaker 8: a dream speech. I mean, these are things that I

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Speaker 8: believe in about five ten years we're going to look back.

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Speaker 8: I cannot believe that this is what was said by

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Speaker 8: the not only for president, but somebody who is leading

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Speaker 8: the pack here to become the next president. So if

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Speaker 8: Republicans watching this who are running down ballot could just

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Speaker 8: focus on the economy, their policy issue that would be

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Speaker 8: strong for reelection or for election, then they will do

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Speaker 8: well come November. I don't know, like I said the

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Speaker 8: same about Donald Trump, but I do think that Republicans

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Speaker 8: should be really focused on those two main issues and

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Speaker 8: campaigning on those to make an come November.

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Speaker 3: You know, Genie, I'm struck by the presence of COVID

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Speaker 3: in the data here, the seven swing states have a

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Speaker 3: disproportionate share of their population living in counties that had

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Speaker 3: not yet recovered to their pre pandemic levels. We're talking

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Speaker 3: GDP yere by the end of twenty twenty two. And

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Speaker 3: when you isolate those counties that did not recover to

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Speaker 3: their pre pandemic level, a vast majority of them were

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Speaker 3: carried by Donald Trump in the twenty twenty election. That

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Speaker 3: could happen again here, correct.

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Speaker 7: It absolutely could. I mean, the numbers are on his

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Speaker 7: side when you look at the public opinion poll numbers.

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Speaker 7: I mean, and people really do think that if they

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Speaker 7: are asked who they trust more with their economy, it

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Speaker 7: is going to be Donald Trump and the GOP. And

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Speaker 7: I think what Kamala Harris needs to try to do

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Speaker 7: is to talk specifically about what Donald Trump has said

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Speaker 7: his plans are. Most economists say his plans as he

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Speaker 7: has laid them out are inflation are. So if we

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Speaker 7: do get a FED cut in interest rates come September,

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Speaker 7: that'll be a point for Harris and Biden to celebrate that.

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Speaker 7: Many Americans will likely see that as a sign that

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Speaker 7: inflation is going down and in the right direction. We're

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Speaker 7: moving in the right direction, and so you know, this

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Speaker 7: would be something that they could use and juxtapose what

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Speaker 7: his plans are versus her plans. But again, it's not

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Speaker 7: something she's going to have to address until and unless

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Speaker 7: he starts to talk about the economy specifically. And I

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Speaker 7: would just add his job has become harder since she

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Speaker 7: is ascended, because of course, now even though she's from

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Speaker 7: the incumbent administration, she can talk about what she plans

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Speaker 7: to do as president. She doesn't have as much defending

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Speaker 7: to do as a Joe Biden would have.

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Speaker 3: Is it just about talking about the economy, Mara. Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump can criticize Joe Biden clearly when it comes to

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Speaker 3: these data all day long. Or does he need a

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Speaker 3: plan on how to low prices? What's his inflation plan?

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Speaker 3: So far, all we've heard is drill, Baby, drill.

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Speaker 8: For are the MAGA supporters. He can just continue to

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Speaker 8: hit on the Harris Biden Biden Harris administration and the

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Speaker 8: ways that he believes they destroyed our economy. He can

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Speaker 8: hit on that all day long, and MAGA will come

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Speaker 8: out for him and will rally behind that messaging. But

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Speaker 8: I think for those voters who are not, so can

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Speaker 8: Don Trump, but really don't see any path that they're

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Speaker 8: going to over Kamala Harris. He needs to try and

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Speaker 8: reach them and convince them to vote for him as

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Speaker 8: opposed to a third party or a write in opportunity.

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Speaker 8: There So he needs to talk about what it is

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Speaker 8: that he plans on actually doing. Again, I watching some

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Speaker 8: of these rallies in Georgia, watching yesterday's speech or press conference,

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Speaker 8: it makes you feel as though he doesn't actually want

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Speaker 8: to be president. He just wants to span fare around him,

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Speaker 8: having the attention and having people you know fairly or

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Speaker 8: kindly talk about him in the media. And unfortunately for

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Speaker 8: the American people, that's going to be a problem. We

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Speaker 8: against an administration which is not reflective of what he

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Speaker 8: had in twenty twenty sixteen. Most of those people he

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Speaker 8: had with him are gone. So what is it that

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Speaker 8: he plans to do should he become president and who

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Speaker 8: is he bringing in with him? I mean, I think

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Speaker 8: these are questions that voters really need to get a

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Speaker 8: handle on before they get to the polls in November.

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Speaker 3: Well, I find it really interesting to put a cap

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Speaker 3: on this conversation about the swing states and their economies

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris and Tim Wallas today are in Arizona and Nevada.

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump is in Bozeman, Montana, And I'll just leave

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Speaker 3: that there for right now.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car Play

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Speaker 1: and then roud Oto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

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Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

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Speaker 1: New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the fastest show in politics, the Friday edition

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Speaker 3: of Balance of Power Live from Washington. You made it

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Speaker 3: to the threshold of the weekend as the campaigns continued travel.

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Speaker 3: We've got a couple of big ones today, importantly the

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris Tim Walls campaign, sticking to the swing states

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Speaker 3: we've been talking about so much, Arizona and Nevada today,

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Speaker 3: where Donald Trump interestingly is in Bozeman, Montana for his

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Speaker 3: one rally of the week here raising questions about the

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Speaker 3: travel schedule, not to mention the deployment of resources in

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Speaker 3: other areas. That's where we start with Gregory Cordy, Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Politics Reporter.

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Speaker 2: It's great to see Gregory.

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Speaker 3: These are obviously valuable days for both campaigns. And as

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Speaker 3: we watch the Democratic ticket do six swing states this week,

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Speaker 3: how is the Trump campaign managing itself in Montana?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it seems almost like an October fever that we

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Speaker 2: have and it's only August.

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Speaker 9: You know.

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Speaker 2: Look, this was a question that form President Trump was

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Speaker 2: asked at his news conference yesterday in mar Lago. He

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Speaker 2: got testy at the question. The question was, you know,

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Speaker 2: why aren't you in this swing states? He says, Look,

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Speaker 2: I'm here, I'm talking to you, I'm campaigning from mar Logo,

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Speaker 2: I'm on the phone all the time. But you know,

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Speaker 2: the two most valuable things that any campaign has is

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Speaker 2: one is the hard money, the dollars the campaign contributions

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Speaker 2: to put up TV ads, And the other is the

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Speaker 2: candidate's time and where the candidate spends his or her time.

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Speaker 2: Says a lot about which how they see the map,

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Speaker 2: which voters they're trying to motivate. And at this point,

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris and Tim Walls are working the swing states

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Speaker 2: and Donald Trump is working mar Lago, and as you

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Speaker 2: point out, Montana, which is very important in the Senate context. Right,

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Speaker 2: But I think both parties would agree they'd much rather

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Speaker 2: have the White House.

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Speaker 3: So let's talk about this news conference. By the way,

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Speaker 3: it was a news conference. There were actual reporters questions,

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Speaker 3: which is not always.

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Speaker 2: Including one from our own Nancy Cook, who was there.

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Speaker 2: That's right.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the couple of planted questions too, I understand from

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Speaker 3: some of the folks who were there, asking about various things.

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Speaker 3: But we played the greatest hits here. I don't think

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Speaker 3: Hannibal lecture made an appearance, but all the other stuff

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Speaker 3: did here, including crowd sizes. We're doing crowd so he's

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Speaker 3: talking about mlk's crowd size for the iyead of a

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Speaker 3: dream speech. Isn't that the definition of a distraction ed?

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Speaker 2: You remember a couple of weeks ago we were in

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Speaker 2: Milwaukee at the Republican Convention. We were talking about how

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Speaker 2: after the assassination attempt, the attempt on Trump's life, he

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Speaker 2: was going to be a sort of a new candidate.

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Speaker 2: He was going to have a sort of rhetoric. He

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Speaker 2: was going to downplay all of the those sort of

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Speaker 2: greatest hits that you're talking about. And of course, you know,

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Speaker 2: we're right back to the same Trump. He can't help himself.

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Speaker 2: It doesn't matter whether it's a rally or a convention

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Speaker 2: nomination acceptance speech or a press conference. He's going to

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Speaker 2: go back to some of those same themes as as

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Speaker 2: he always does, you know, and his divergences. We didn't get,

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Speaker 2: as you said, Hannimal elector. We did get a little

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Speaker 2: bit of an aside on the acoustics of mar A Lago.

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Speaker 3: How much it was worth eighteen million?

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Speaker 2: Eighteen million is according to that room, I think, Yeah,

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Speaker 2: so it's this is the Trump we have come to

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Speaker 2: know as Americans.

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Speaker 3: The Trump you're gonna get apparently attempted assassination or not.

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Speaker 3: But we're playing with some pretty hot stuff here. It's

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Speaker 3: not just crowd sizes, it's racial tropes, it's stolen valor.

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Speaker 2: Is this the campaign? Again? This goes back to I

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Speaker 2: think the comment I made earlier, like this feels like October.

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Speaker 2: These are October level attack.

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Speaker 3: October's in five minutes, by the way, and we are

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Speaker 3: in the sprint.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 2: This is the fast forward time. Absolutely. Although you know,

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Speaker 2: there used to be a day I'm old enough to

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Speaker 2: remember when before Labor Day, both parties kind of thought, well,

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Speaker 2: people aren't really paying attention. Yeah right, you know, we'll

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Speaker 2: do some organizational work. I keep hearing that, actually, but no,

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Speaker 2: it is with the dog days. We haven't even had

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Speaker 2: the Democratic Convention yet, and these kind of fever pitch

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Speaker 2: attacks which have become more common in American politics over

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Speaker 2: the past decade or so. Certainly Trump has contributed to it,

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Speaker 2: but you know, to be fair, Democrats also have engaged

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Speaker 2: in some somewhat crude insinuations about JD. Vance, which I'm

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Speaker 2: not going to repeat here, but I think people can

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Speaker 2: probably use their imagination it's a furniture related I know, yeah,

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Speaker 2: something I have attack. I heard that. You know, this

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Speaker 2: is the state of our politics now.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, so let's talk about the Democrats more for

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Speaker 3: a minute, because Klina Harris getting a lot of criticism,

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Speaker 3: and you could even argue the main reason why Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump did that yesterday is because people want her to

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Speaker 3: have a news conference stand there for forty five minutes,

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Speaker 3: or an our take question sit down, have a hard

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Speaker 3: hitting interview with a journalist. I don't know if they're

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Speaker 3: at the point yet where they have to do this.

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Speaker 3: As you said, we're going into the convention. There are

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Speaker 3: a lot of things happening. They're introducing a running mate,

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Speaker 3: but there is something real to that.

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Speaker 2: Well, yes, and as you know, because you have been

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Speaker 2: in this business a long time too, that the longer

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Speaker 2: she goes without doing it, the more the bubble inflates.

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Speaker 3: The harder that interview will be stations.

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Speaker 2: Fall on that in or that press conference or whatever

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Speaker 2: venue would take. She did take some questions, a few

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Speaker 2: of them on the tarmac yesterday, I think it was.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, look, this is she has won the Democratic

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Speaker 2: nomination for president without a single delegate voting or a

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Speaker 2: single primary caucus voter voting for one of her delegates.

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Speaker 2: Those delegates have now switched over to her. But she

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Speaker 2: has not had to make the case in the same

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Speaker 2: grueling primary process that we usually put our presidential candidates

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Speaker 2: through of why she's the best candidate for president of

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Speaker 2: the United States. She is not on the record on

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Speaker 2: a number of different questions of how her views of

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Speaker 2: the world may differ from the person who she has

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Speaker 2: served under as president and Joe Biden, And so yeah,

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Speaker 2: those questions are going to mount until she starts to

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Speaker 2: go out and answer some of them. I still say

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Speaker 2: they take the edge off by doing it. Sit down

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Speaker 2: with the two of them, right.

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Speaker 3: Kamala Harris, Tim Wall, sit down with the friendly whatever,

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Speaker 3: do entertainment, whatever you gotta do, and then and then

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Speaker 3: follow it up.

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Speaker 2: With the hard hitting interview. You start with the I

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Speaker 2: am getting campaign advice on it. Do a little bit

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Speaker 2: of lifestyle.

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Speaker 3: Dare I say couch? You said, do the couch interview

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Speaker 3: on the morning show. Right, that's what's coming, Okay, campaign

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Speaker 3: advice from Gregor.

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Speaker 2: Recording, not me.

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Speaker 3: It's great to see you, Bloomberg politics reporter. Not your job, indeed,

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Speaker 3: but he covers politics the best of them, and it's

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Speaker 3: great to have you at the table always, Greigory, I'm Joe,

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Speaker 3: Matthew and Washington. As we recall the news conference at

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Speaker 3: mar A Lago, you saw and heard it live in

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Speaker 3: its entirety. Well, we were just talking about this a

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Speaker 3: short time ago. Here's a taste of Donald Trump holding

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Speaker 3: forth with reporters at mari A Lago.

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Speaker 10: If you look at January sixth, which a lot of

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Speaker 10: people aren't talking about very much, I think those people

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Speaker 10: were treated very harshly when you compare them to other

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Speaker 10: things that took place in this country where a lot

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Speaker 10: of people were killed. Nobody was killed on January six

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Speaker 10: Of course, there'll be a peaceful transfer, and there was

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Speaker 10: last time, and there'll be a peaceful transfer. I just

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Speaker 10: hope we're going to have honest elections. So I think

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Speaker 10: the abortion issue has written very much tempered down. Nobody's

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Speaker 10: spoke into crowds bigger than me. If you look at

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Speaker 10: Martin Luther King when he did his speech, his great speech,

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Speaker 10: and you look at ours, same real estate, same everything,

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Speaker 10: same number of people.

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Speaker 1: If not, we had more.

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Speaker 3: To think that was out of an hour, we could

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Speaker 3: keep playing things for quite a while. The Associated Press,

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Speaker 3: by the way, did a little bit of homework on that.

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Speaker 3: For the record, Martin Luther King Junior's crowd that day

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Speaker 3: was twenty five times larger than Donald Trump's was on

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Speaker 3: the sixth of January, not to mention some of the

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Speaker 3: other things that happened that day. As he refers to

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Speaker 3: a peaceful transition of power. This is where we start

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Speaker 3: our conversation with the gentleman from Maryland. Congressman Glenn Ivy

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Speaker 3: is with US Democrat representing Maryland's fourth District, which I

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Speaker 3: drive through every day on my way to work. Congressman,

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Speaker 3: it's great to see you, Thanks for coming in, thanks

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Speaker 3: for having me. It's a pleasure to have you in

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Speaker 3: person here. I'm not going to drag you through this

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Speaker 3: campaign stuff for our entire conversation, because there are a

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Speaker 3: couple of issues I'd really like to hit with you.

441
00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 2: Start there.

442
00:22:00,920 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 3: The rhetoric that we're hearing in this campaign is one

443
00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:06,639
Speaker 3: that's concerning.

444
00:22:06,240 --> 00:22:07,040
Speaker 2: A lot of folks.

445
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:13,479
Speaker 3: Is we're now regressing in serracial tropes, stolen valor the

446
00:22:13,520 --> 00:22:16,680
Speaker 3: rest that you're hearing along with us. How does the

447
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 3: Harris Walls campaign respond to that?

448
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 9: Well, so far, I think they've been able to almost

449
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:27,720
Speaker 9: ignore it because many of those comments contain critiques within themselves.

450
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,920
Speaker 9: I mean, I think it depends up to see how

451
00:22:30,920 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 9: things play out and if he keeps doing press conferences

452
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:37,800
Speaker 9: like the one yesterday where it's just one bizarre statement

453
00:22:37,840 --> 00:22:38,520
Speaker 9: after another.

454
00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 2: The January sixth.

455
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,200
Speaker 9: Comments, for example, where you've had I think over a

456
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,240
Speaker 9: thousand people have been convicted of criminal offenses, some for

457
00:22:46,320 --> 00:22:49,800
Speaker 9: sedition and things like that. He keeps trying to downplay

458
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,760
Speaker 9: these things and that like they were just tourists there

459
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 9: that day, but that's obviously preposterous. So you know, he'll

460
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:59,480
Speaker 9: keep undermining his own campaign the way your commentators talked

461
00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:02,840
Speaker 9: about previously. I'm pleased with the way Harris and Walls

462
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:06,520
Speaker 9: are focusing on issues. I think American voters are more

463
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,240
Speaker 9: interested in hearing about some of which you just touched

464
00:23:09,280 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 9: on a few minutes ago, like the economy. Yeah, and

465
00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,280
Speaker 9: I think we have to, you know, stay on our track.

466
00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:17,320
Speaker 9: And I don't know if they'll ever get on track themselves,

467
00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 9: but I think it's we're going in the right direction.

468
00:23:18,920 --> 00:23:21,760
Speaker 3: Should Governor Walls clarify some of the questions about his

469
00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:24,320
Speaker 3: military career? Is that part of the campaign?

470
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:25,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he's talked about that some.

471
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:29,280
Speaker 9: You know, My view so far is that, you know,

472
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 9: I think the focus has been on the use of

473
00:23:31,560 --> 00:23:34,280
Speaker 9: the term war. You know, the United States was at

474
00:23:34,280 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 9: war essentially with you know, over in Afghanistan at the time,

475
00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,080
Speaker 9: so I think it's factually correct on its face. But

476
00:23:40,560 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 9: the larger piece, you know, he was in I think

477
00:23:43,720 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 9: the Guard for twenty four years if I'm not mistaken,

478
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:47,679
Speaker 9: and he left.

479
00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,600
Speaker 3: Two months before his unit deployed to a rock. They're

480
00:23:49,600 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 3: saying that he abandoned his brothers on arms. That's a

481
00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: heavy charge.

482
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 9: It's a heavy charge. I think he left to run

483
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,080
Speaker 9: for Congress. I thought it was ten months too, but

484
00:23:57,240 --> 00:24:00,200
Speaker 9: maybe I've got the wrong number. But the bottom line

485
00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 9: is there's no indication of any kind of misconduct or

486
00:24:03,440 --> 00:24:06,119
Speaker 9: stolen valor or anything along those lines. And when you

487
00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:10,080
Speaker 9: contrast that with Donald Trump, who pretty much ducked out

488
00:24:10,119 --> 00:24:13,280
Speaker 9: on service during the Vietnam era, he got the doctor

489
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:17,040
Speaker 9: in his father's building to give him a bone spurs Deferral,

490
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 9: I don't know.

491
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's yeah, I don't know if

492
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:21,640
Speaker 2: he can cast the first stone.

493
00:24:21,720 --> 00:24:24,440
Speaker 3: So well, you wonder if they're trying to encourage that debate,

494
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,399
Speaker 3: which would be curious.

495
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:27,560
Speaker 2: Congressman.

496
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 3: I guess broadly though, we're talking about they call this

497
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,600
Speaker 3: the vibes campaign. There's this new energy that has changed

498
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 3: the ground under our feet.

499
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:38,560
Speaker 2: You can speak to that as you wish.

500
00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: You're a Democrat, I'm sure you're very excited about what's happening,

501
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:41,440
Speaker 3: But have.

502
00:24:41,359 --> 00:24:43,560
Speaker 2: You ever seen a moment like this.

503
00:24:44,880 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 3: We're an aircraft carrier of a presidential campaign turned on

504
00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 3: a dime.

505
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 2: No, this has been in two weeks.

506
00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 9: Yeah, this is pretty dramatic. And you know, the Obama

507
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,159
Speaker 9: campaign in eight had similar kinds of energy, but it

508
00:24:58,200 --> 00:24:59,840
Speaker 9: took a long time for it to ramp up to

509
00:24:59,840 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 9: the point a little bit nineteen sixty eight Bobby Kennedy,

510
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 9: just as he was hitting his stride before he was assassinated.

511
00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:11,719
Speaker 9: But that's kind of it in my recollection. And you know,

512
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 9: I think she's doing a couple things with that that

513
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 9: are positive. One is she's sustaining it. It looks like

514
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:18,679
Speaker 9: the walls pick. I know there were some people that

515
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:23,080
Speaker 9: wanted other selections, but it looks like it's worked out

516
00:25:23,280 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 9: very well and sort of rallied the troops in any event,

517
00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:31,199
Speaker 9: including you know, people who wanted other candidates to be picked.

518
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 9: And I think she's also continuing to dominate the media.

519
00:25:34,320 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 9: I think part of the reason Trump had the press

520
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:40,119
Speaker 9: conference yesterday was he's been sidelined in part by his

521
00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 9: own silly comments, but also because of the rise of

522
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:45,359
Speaker 9: her campaign, and I think he's trying to figure out

523
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 9: a way to get back into it. They had advance

524
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 9: following them around for a couple of days, kind of.

525
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,439
Speaker 2: Jose pressed up against the window.

526
00:25:51,640 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 9: Yeah, it was kind of funny, but you know it's

527
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,400
Speaker 9: clear that they're a little desperate and confused about how

528
00:25:56,400 --> 00:25:56,880
Speaker 9: to go forward.

529
00:25:57,000 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 3: She need to hold the news conference, do some of

530
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:00,920
Speaker 3: these interviews. That's the challenge right now, is that she's

531
00:26:00,920 --> 00:26:01,880
Speaker 3: not answering questions.

532
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:03,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind her doing that.

533
00:26:03,960 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 9: I think it's there's going to be a plenty of

534
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:09,160
Speaker 9: time for a variety of types of news conferences like that.

535
00:26:09,560 --> 00:26:15,399
Speaker 9: But the introducing herself and her vice presidential candidate, I

536
00:26:15,400 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 9: think are the way to go right now. So I

537
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:20,240
Speaker 9: like the speeches in the battleground states, The big rallies

538
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,320
Speaker 9: make sense. Continuing to push the high energy events make

539
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:26,440
Speaker 9: a lot of sense, and you know she can ride

540
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 9: that out.

541
00:26:26,840 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 2: I think going forward.

542
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,840
Speaker 3: I want to ask you about the Senate race in Maryland.

543
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 3: You've endorsed Angela also Brooks, who's running against a Republican

544
00:26:37,200 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 3: who's not talking a lot like a Republican. Larry Hogan,

545
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 3: you're a former governor, is criticizing Donald Trump.

546
00:26:43,040 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 2: Is very disappointed.

547
00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:46,480
Speaker 3: He said by the news conference, we need to do

548
00:26:46,560 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 3: is focus on the issues. He held a news conference

549
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 3: or an interview, I should say, rather with punch bowl,

550
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 3: and he was talking about his opponent, Angela Also Brooks,

551
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:58,479
Speaker 3: of course, Prince George's county executive who's running for an

552
00:26:58,560 --> 00:27:01,680
Speaker 3: historic candidacy for Senate. Larry Hogan said, my opponent really

553
00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:04,720
Speaker 3: wants to make this about red versus blue, just Democrat

554
00:27:04,840 --> 00:27:07,560
Speaker 3: versus Republican. Probably take the names off the ballots and

555
00:27:07,600 --> 00:27:10,000
Speaker 3: all of our records and say you have to vote blue.

556
00:27:10,240 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 2: Our campaign, he.

557
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:14,479
Speaker 3: Says, is about red, white and blue. Is there some

558
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:15,040
Speaker 3: truth to that?

559
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:19,000
Speaker 9: Not on the ads that I've seen, the ads I've seen.

560
00:27:19,080 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 9: He's running as a Democrat basically, so he said yesterday,

561
00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 9: I saw one of his ads is choosing people over politics.

562
00:27:27,320 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 9: Now that is the House Democrats slogan for this cycle

563
00:27:32,200 --> 00:27:35,120
Speaker 9: that we hear from Haakim Jefferys. Yeah, exactly. And then

564
00:27:35,160 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 9: he's he talked about abortion.

565
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,639
Speaker 3: So he's not a real Republican, that is what you're saying.

566
00:27:38,760 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 9: Well, he certainly isn't running on their issues, and he's

567
00:27:40,920 --> 00:27:44,480
Speaker 9: a million miles away from you know what Donald Trump's

568
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:48,400
Speaker 9: focus could be. I suppose, given what his commentaries have been.

569
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:51,560
Speaker 9: The problem is twofold one is his record, which is

570
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:54,199
Speaker 9: I think more significant than what he's saying now. He

571
00:27:54,280 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 9: was never supportive, particularly of abortion rights, and so he's

572
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:00,520
Speaker 9: able to get away with that because it's races for

573
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 9: governor occurred before Dobbs repealed Roby Wade. Now he can't

574
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,600
Speaker 9: do that, and the big problem he's got is that

575
00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,840
Speaker 9: if he does get elected, he's already said he would

576
00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 9: sit with the Republican caucus. What that would mean is

577
00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:16,199
Speaker 9: fifty one votes. That has an impact on future Supreme

578
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,960
Speaker 9: Court selections, which certainly Democrats in Maryland are troubled by

579
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 9: what Trump's done to the Supreme Court already. And then

580
00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:25,639
Speaker 9: on the abortion issue, which there's a huge wing in

581
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,439
Speaker 9: the Republican Party that really wants to nationalize the bands

582
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:30,919
Speaker 9: that have taken place in some states. And then you

583
00:28:30,960 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 9: get to gun violence and other issues along those lines

584
00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:37,000
Speaker 9: where you know the Republicans, for example, just on guns,

585
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,600
Speaker 9: ghost guns, you know, you can't get one Republican co

586
00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:44,880
Speaker 9: sponsor to banned ghost guns in the House, which is crazy.

587
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 9: I mean, the only reason you would have a ghost

588
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 9: gun is if you want to evade prosecution because there's

589
00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:50,280
Speaker 9: no serial numbers.

590
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 2: These are the guns of the serial number scratch. That's right.

591
00:28:53,080 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 9: Guns are made without serial numbers at all, just so

592
00:28:56,440 --> 00:28:59,920
Speaker 9: that you can avoid prosecution. We can't get one republic

593
00:29:00,040 --> 00:29:02,040
Speaker 9: Can co sponsor. He's not going to be able to

594
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:05,200
Speaker 9: duck those kinds of issues. I don't think as we

595
00:29:05,240 --> 00:29:07,600
Speaker 9: go forward, as.

596
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 2: You consider all the questions.

597
00:29:09,880 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 3: You hear the issues that arise from Oxen Hill from

598
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,880
Speaker 3: your district, and now the need for money to rebuild

599
00:29:18,480 --> 00:29:21,200
Speaker 3: the Francis Scott Key Bridge in our remaining moment. How

600
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: are you going to get that done? Is that in

601
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 3: the lame duck? Is it next year?

602
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:25,160
Speaker 2: How do you get No?

603
00:29:25,200 --> 00:29:27,080
Speaker 9: I think the pushes to try and get it done now,

604
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,720
Speaker 9: and obviously what happens in November could have an impact

605
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:32,160
Speaker 9: on that in a very significant way. We need to

606
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 9: get the funding up front for the bridge because it's

607
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 9: going to take years for the insurance cases.

608
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:38,400
Speaker 2: You need to get this done before the election. Is

609
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: your point?

610
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:43,120
Speaker 9: Well, well, I'm saying that depending on who wins. I

611
00:29:43,160 --> 00:29:45,360
Speaker 9: don't know what Trump would do if he gets elect

612
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 9: that would jeopardize funding for the bridge.

613
00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:48,000
Speaker 2: I think it could.

614
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,720
Speaker 9: Yeah, I mean he's some of the things that he's

615
00:29:50,760 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 9: talked about and the Trump Project twenty twenty five, you know,

616
00:29:54,960 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 9: policy positions, we're talking about all kinds of radical changes.

617
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 9: Another one, the House Republicans came out with a paper

618
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:05,880
Speaker 9: to eliminate building the new FBI headquarters and shut that

619
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 9: down even though we've been awarded that in Maryland and

620
00:30:08,760 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 9: try and move the whole thing to Alabama, which is like.

621
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 3: A little to go to Quantico. Yeah, you knows when

622
00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,040
Speaker 3: I'm really glad you came in. We want to keep

623
00:30:17,040 --> 00:30:18,600
Speaker 3: tabs with you, and I want to see you in Chicago.

624
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 3: You're going to be at the DNC, right absolutely. I

625
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: look forward to seeing you there. Let's make a plan

626
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:25,280
Speaker 3: we'll meet right here on this program. Glenn Ivy, the

627
00:30:25,320 --> 00:30:29,880
Speaker 3: Democrat from Maryland Oxen Hill. As I said, we drive

628
00:30:29,960 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 3: through the district every day on our way to work.

629
00:30:31,840 --> 00:30:33,640
Speaker 2: We'll have a lot more ahead. This is Bloomberg.

630
00:30:37,360 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

631
00:30:40,960 --> 00:30:44,720
Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on epocarplaying Thenronoto with

632
00:30:44,800 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get

633
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:51,240
Speaker 1: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

634
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,200
Speaker 3: Pretty remarkable to think that in one week we're on

635
00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: our way to Chicago and we're going to be bringing

636
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 3: you special coverage show of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

637
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 3: With so many issues flying around this campaign, whether it's

638
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:09,120
Speaker 3: the economy, abortion, the border, or yes, geopolitics, and we

639
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:11,440
Speaker 3: hear a lot about how voters tend not to key

640
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:15,560
Speaker 3: their decisions off geopolitical stories, but foreign policy might well

641
00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 3: make the grade, considering two hot wars underway right now,

642
00:31:19,200 --> 00:31:23,800
Speaker 3: not only Ukraine, but great questions about our policy in Israel.

643
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,600
Speaker 3: And you know that, of course, is swirling around the

644
00:31:25,600 --> 00:31:29,840
Speaker 3: Harris campaign, with the potential now for a cease fire.

645
00:31:29,960 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 3: I know you've heard me say this before, but we're

646
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 3: following parallel storylines today in Israel. One is the anticipated

647
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 3: retaliation from Iran over the killings of Hesbolah and Hamas officials.

648
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 3: The other is the potential for a cease fire with Hamas,

649
00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 3: with reporting today that the president, leaders of Egypt and

650
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:54,120
Speaker 3: Cutter say they are prepared to present a final ceasefire proposal.

651
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 3: If you're reading the terminal, you see that new round

652
00:31:56,520 --> 00:32:00,720
Speaker 3: of ceasefire talks now set for August fifteenth. Very important

653
00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 3: is we had the voice of Maura Rudman, professor at

654
00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 3: the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, director of

655
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 3: the Ripples of Hope project focused on democratic solutions.

656
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 2: Mara, it's great to have you back.

657
00:32:11,280 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 3: I don't know how you have both of these stories

658
00:32:13,800 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 3: existing at once. And I'm going to point you to

659
00:32:16,400 --> 00:32:19,360
Speaker 3: one more headline that crossed the terminal. A short time

660
00:32:19,360 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 3: ago from Reuters Biden to lift offensive weapons sales ban

661
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,440
Speaker 3: to Saudi Arabia. When you factor that in, are we

662
00:32:27,480 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 3: on the verge of a ceasefire breakthrough?

663
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:35,360
Speaker 4: We've been at this point before, as you've noted, everything

664
00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 4: is possible, which means that I would say we're at

665
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 4: an inflection point. We can be moving toward the ceasefire,

666
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:46,080
Speaker 4: and those are key meetings next week August fifteenth. It's

667
00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 4: also significant that cut Our, Egypt, and the United States

668
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:54,640
Speaker 4: together put out the statement about pushing for the August

669
00:32:54,720 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 4: fifteenth meeting and about presenting a bridging proposal. At the

670
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:03,520
Speaker 4: same time, it's very unclear what Iran will be doing,

671
00:33:03,880 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 4: what hes Glass calculations are, and so the next several

672
00:33:08,720 --> 00:33:10,360
Speaker 4: days are just critical.

673
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:12,000
Speaker 2: That's for sure.

674
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 3: I just don't get, and maybe I'm being a little

675
00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 3: too simple here, Mara, how you can strike a cease

676
00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,600
Speaker 3: fire while Israel is also bracing for a potential retaliation

677
00:33:21,280 --> 00:33:21,959
Speaker 3: from Iran.

678
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:23,440
Speaker 2: Are you thinking that won't happen?

679
00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 4: No, I actually I think that the two are actually interlinked.

680
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 4: I'm going to bring you back to something that Prime

681
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 4: Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was so tragically assassinated by some

682
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:43,600
Speaker 4: of the very people related to folks in Bibi Netanyahu's cabinet,

683
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:48,120
Speaker 4: but Prime Minister Rabine used to talk about fighting for

684
00:33:48,200 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 4: peace as if there was no war, and fighting wars

685
00:33:51,720 --> 00:33:55,440
Speaker 4: as if there was no peace, and living in that

686
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 4: combined space at the same time. Is typical not just

687
00:33:59,840 --> 00:34:02,040
Speaker 4: for this reason, but for many conflicts where you've got

688
00:34:02,080 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 4: to look for ways to talk and to get the resolution,

689
00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:06,800
Speaker 4: and at the same time you've got to be prepared

690
00:34:06,840 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 4: to fully defend yourself.

691
00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:13,960
Speaker 3: We remember, of course, what happened in April when Iran

692
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 3: did respond, and the refrain that we've heard across the

693
00:34:18,680 --> 00:34:21,879
Speaker 3: spectrum is that Hesbealah is not looking for a wider war,

694
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,920
Speaker 3: Iran is not looking for a wider war, and of

695
00:34:24,960 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 3: course Israel is not.

696
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:28,440
Speaker 2: Do you believe that to be true?

697
00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:31,960
Speaker 4: Yes, I believe that all of the actors, for a

698
00:34:32,000 --> 00:34:35,920
Speaker 4: variety of reasons, recognize that a wider war is not

699
00:34:36,160 --> 00:34:39,759
Speaker 4: in their interest. Sadly, in this kind of situation, that

700
00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:44,200
Speaker 4: doesn't always mean that their actions will not trigger that

701
00:34:44,360 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 4: wider war. And the role of the United States in

702
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,760
Speaker 4: this case, also of Egypt, Katar, the stautias of everyone

703
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 4: else in the region and throughout the world is to

704
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:57,520
Speaker 4: try to stress that longer term perspective, to try to

705
00:34:57,640 --> 00:35:00,640
Speaker 4: keep folks away from the trigger finger so as to

706
00:35:00,640 --> 00:35:04,480
Speaker 4: speak and to give incentives to the fullest dicton possible

707
00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:08,799
Speaker 4: to reach forward is an everyone's long term interest, which

708
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,319
Speaker 4: is to avoid this tit for tot.

709
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:14,560
Speaker 3: Now, well, we're at a moment where a lot could

710
00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:19,239
Speaker 3: happen here. And we remember May thirty first, the day

711
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 3: that Joe Biden addressed the nation the world from the

712
00:35:22,680 --> 00:35:26,600
Speaker 3: White House with a six point ceasefire plan that he

713
00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 3: said Israel had signed off on. We saw, of course,

714
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,719
Speaker 3: in the days following that Benjamin Netanya, who may have

715
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,400
Speaker 3: signed off on something in principle, what was clearly not

716
00:35:37,480 --> 00:35:39,960
Speaker 3: on board with the details at hand. Why should the

717
00:35:39,960 --> 00:35:41,120
Speaker 3: White House trust him?

718
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 2: Now?

719
00:35:43,800 --> 00:35:46,280
Speaker 4: So, the White House is working with the State of Israel,

720
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,239
Speaker 4: and it's working as well with Qatars and Egyptians who

721
00:35:49,280 --> 00:35:52,440
Speaker 4: are working with him. As The challenge that all of

722
00:35:52,440 --> 00:35:55,000
Speaker 4: those who are trying to bring about the ceasefire face

723
00:35:55,239 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 4: is that there are elements for Primerstahu and for ya

724
00:36:00,760 --> 00:36:04,399
Speaker 4: Ya Sinhar, the head of Hamas where and any kind

725
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: of seasfire agreement is not in their direct immediate political interests,

726
00:36:08,680 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 4: and yet for many of the people around them, in

727
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 4: the case of beating the TYAHUO frankly his entire military

728
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,040
Speaker 4: and security establishment, as well as the people of Israel,

729
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 4: certainly the families of hostages are pushing very hard for

730
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 4: the nature and scoping of the ceasefire proposal that has

731
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,799
Speaker 4: been laid out. And in the case of Hamas, it's

732
00:36:27,840 --> 00:36:32,760
Speaker 4: not just the countries around. Many Palestinians in Gaza are

733
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 4: brave enough, courageous enough to speak out on the record

734
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,960
Speaker 4: about the challenges and how much they need of ceasefire,

735
00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:43,279
Speaker 4: which takes a tremendous amount of risk and peril for them.

736
00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 4: Given the vicious kind of leadership of ya Ya Sinhar.

737
00:36:48,360 --> 00:36:51,960
Speaker 3: We've been surging military assets into the region even more

738
00:36:51,960 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 3: than we already had. Mara F twenty two jets now

739
00:36:55,600 --> 00:37:00,880
Speaker 3: included several more destroyers in the region. What are we

740
00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 3: planning for? What are we prepared to do to defend

741
00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:06,320
Speaker 3: Israel if this retaliatory strike does.

742
00:37:06,200 --> 00:37:10,640
Speaker 4: Come well, what we've put into the region is certainly

743
00:37:10,680 --> 00:37:14,480
Speaker 4: a show of force and part of a strong deterrence.

744
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:18,440
Speaker 4: The strongest deterrence you can mobilize is to show the

745
00:37:18,520 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 4: willingness to be able to defend and to help defend,

746
00:37:22,040 --> 00:37:24,040
Speaker 4: and so that is part of what is going on

747
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 4: right now. Certainly the United States showing with what you've

748
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:30,480
Speaker 4: described what we are willing to bring into the region

749
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,440
Speaker 4: to help Israel defend itself, and any number of private

750
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 4: conversations that are going on with players throughout the region.

751
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:43,080
Speaker 4: As was reported earlier today, the Jordanians, the Saudis, the Egyptians,

752
00:37:43,960 --> 00:37:48,719
Speaker 4: others are all talking to Iran as well about scaling

753
00:37:48,760 --> 00:37:52,279
Speaker 4: this back about the longer term interests of everyone in

754
00:37:52,320 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 4: the region. Jordanians have been clear about not using their

755
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:58,279
Speaker 4: airspace for either side, frankly, which is part of I

756
00:37:58,320 --> 00:38:01,000
Speaker 4: think how the kingdom there is trying to position itself

757
00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:06,359
Speaker 4: to again damp down actions that could really result in

758
00:38:06,600 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 4: tragedy across the region.

759
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 3: Fast forward to August fifteenth, again, the ceasefire talks that

760
00:38:13,040 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 3: have been scheduled the US cutter Egypt. Is this Secretary

761
00:38:17,280 --> 00:38:19,799
Speaker 3: of State Anthony Blincoln or is this Bill Burns at

762
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,440
Speaker 3: the table for the United States?

763
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 2: Do we know?

764
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 4: It's probably a combination. I think that Bill Burns has

765
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:31,760
Speaker 4: been the primary leader of this effort of the behind

766
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,279
Speaker 4: the scenes. I think that Brett McGirk, who's at the

767
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 4: White House at the NSC works for Jake Sullivan, the

768
00:38:37,760 --> 00:38:40,799
Speaker 4: National Security Advisor, is very much kind of day to

769
00:38:40,880 --> 00:38:43,479
Speaker 4: day hands on, but Bill Burns clearly has a whole

770
00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 4: team as well, and I'm sure that Secretary of B

771
00:38:46,960 --> 00:38:50,319
Speaker 4: Lincoln is also very much involved. So it is a

772
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:51,880
Speaker 4: full seam effort.

773
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 3: August fifteenth is next Thursday, marow. What's more likely in

774
00:38:56,960 --> 00:38:59,800
Speaker 3: that time that we do have a breakthrough on a

775
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,360
Speaker 3: sea or Iran strikes Israel.

776
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:07,600
Speaker 4: I don't want to put odds on that kind of situation, honestly.

777
00:39:07,640 --> 00:39:09,600
Speaker 4: What I try to remain focused on is what so

778
00:39:09,840 --> 00:39:12,799
Speaker 4: clearly in the United States interest in Israel's interest, in

779
00:39:12,840 --> 00:39:16,960
Speaker 4: the interests of all those in the region, and absolutely

780
00:39:17,000 --> 00:39:20,120
Speaker 4: for the hostages and their families, which is to reach

781
00:39:20,200 --> 00:39:24,719
Speaker 4: a cease fire deal. And doing so is obviously going

782
00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:27,799
Speaker 4: to be much more possible in the near term if

783
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 4: there are not actions by heswelar by Iran in this

784
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,840
Speaker 4: intervening time period which will certainly escalate and make a

785
00:39:34,880 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 4: ceasefire that much more difficult.

786
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I only have a minute left here tomorrow. We're

787
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,160
Speaker 3: in the throes of an important election here in the

788
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 3: United States. So what extent would a Trump presidency embrace

789
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:55,520
Speaker 3: this ceasefire proposal. I'm assuming Kamala Harris would be in

790
00:39:55,520 --> 00:39:56,840
Speaker 3: continuity with Joe Biden.

791
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,000
Speaker 4: I think that's correct in terms of all signs that

792
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 4: Kamala Harris has given and in terms of a Trump administration.

793
00:40:05,680 --> 00:40:08,360
Speaker 4: Really who knows. He has been all over the place

794
00:40:09,320 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 4: on this issue. He was quite harsh to Israel and

795
00:40:12,400 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 4: to the Prime Minister immediately after October seventh, in the

796
00:40:16,239 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 4: way they're surprising to people. He's also talked in ways he's.

797
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:25,000
Speaker 11: Not a negotiator, despite his let's make a deal kind

798
00:40:25,040 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 11: of aura of the President Trump, He's not used to

799
00:40:28,520 --> 00:40:31,880
Speaker 11: how you create win win situations as opposed to zero sum,

800
00:40:32,400 --> 00:40:34,880
Speaker 11: and this is a situation where you've got to figure

801
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,400
Speaker 11: out ways to get through that.

802
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:42,680
Speaker 4: Lead to a seatpire deal. So I'm very concerned, perhaps

803
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:47,480
Speaker 4: not surprisingly about how a Trump administration might handle what

804
00:40:47,640 --> 00:40:50,360
Speaker 4: is going on now and any future in the region.

805
00:40:51,840 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 3: From the Miller Center at the University of Virginia, Maura Rudman,

806
00:40:54,480 --> 00:40:55,239
Speaker 3: it's great to have you back.

807
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,120
Speaker 2: Mar Thank you so much for the insights at another

808
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 2: very important moment here geopolitics.

809
00:41:04,440 --> 00:41:07,640
Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

810
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,600
Speaker 3: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

811
00:41:10,719 --> 00:41:13,279
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812
00:41:13,360 --> 00:41:17,000
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813
00:41:17,080 --> 00:41:18,320
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