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Speaker 1: Hi, I'm Molly John Fast and this is Fast Politics,

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Speaker 1: where we discussed the top political headlines with some of

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Speaker 1: today's best minds, and Congressman Dan Newhouse, one of just

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Speaker 1: two Republican congressmen who voted to impeach President Trump, is

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Speaker 1: you'll be surprised to hear this. Retiring from Congress, we

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Speaker 1: have such a great show for you today, talking Bed's

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Speaker 1: own Harry Littmann stops by to talk to us about

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Speaker 1: the many lawless actions of the Trump administration. Then we

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Speaker 1: will talk to substack's own Paul Krugman about what he

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Speaker 1: sees happening in the dismal Trump economy. But first the news.

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Speaker 2: You know, my if I ever had a friend come

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Speaker 2: to me and say, man, I'm just so bad at

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Speaker 2: my job. I feel terrible about myself, I'd say, Speaker

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson exists, buddy, don't you worry? It could always

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Speaker 2: get worse.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, it turns out that Speaker of the House,

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Speaker 1: a harder job than it looks, can't be filled by

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Speaker 1: a pleasant, sick a fan Mike Johnson, a person who

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Speaker 1: got his job because Trump liked him. And that's it.

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Speaker 1: That's it. That's the only reason he got the job.

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Speaker 1: So here we are, and he's got some problems. A

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Speaker 1: group of House Republican Centrists. These are people who are

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Speaker 1: pretty sure they're going to lose their jobs in the

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Speaker 1: twenty twenty six midterms, and they are including the cunning

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Speaker 1: Mike Lawler. They went and signed on to this vote

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Speaker 1: to on extending the Affordable Care Act tax credits. So

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Speaker 1: this was smart. You know, I give Representative Hakim a

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Speaker 1: pretty hard time. You know, he did a three year

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Speaker 1: clean ACA expansion and everyone said it will never get there,

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Speaker 1: that the discharge petition will never get voted on. Well,

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Speaker 1: he got the two hundred and eighteenth signatures he needed

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Speaker 1: to force a vote on the floor. This is a

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Speaker 1: sign of just how bad Mike Johnson is at his job. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So now they're going to vote on it in the floor.

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Speaker 1: And by the way, the people who signed this Brian Fitzpatrick,

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Speaker 1: a Republican from Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler and Robert Bresdahan from Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: and Ryan McKenzie. So these are three Republicans from Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: one Republican from New York. They are centristy Republicans from

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Speaker 1: purple districts and They're doing this because they know they're

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Speaker 1: going to get fucking killed on healthcare. They know that

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Speaker 1: people's premiums are going way up, and they know that

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Speaker 1: the Republicans have zero plan to deal with it. And

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Speaker 1: so here we are. I'll be curious to see what

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Speaker 1: happens next. You know, the Senate will now have to

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Speaker 1: vote against this, and if they vote against it, which

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Speaker 1: they very well might, will mean that these Obamacare premiums

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Speaker 1: going up will be flatly their fault. And I think

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Speaker 1: it's worth just like for another minute talking about this.

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Speaker 1: The last time a bill like this got a discharged

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Speaker 1: petition came to the floor, the Senate went along with it,

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Speaker 1: and Donald Trump did too, you know why, because it

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Speaker 1: was so much pressure and it was the Epstein files

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Speaker 1: release thing. But there was so much pressure they could

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Speaker 1: not even Trump could not turn off the valve, could

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Speaker 1: not say yes. And so we'll see what happens with this.

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Speaker 1: But you really do see a way in which having

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Speaker 1: a completely incompetent speaker has really opened the door to

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Speaker 1: Democrats being able to do what they want to do.

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Speaker 1: And good for them.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I really liked the victory app they kind of

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Speaker 2: took yesterday of like, oh yeah, we got rid of

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Speaker 2: this vote, and it's like, uh, nope, you're not good

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Speaker 2: at your job.

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Speaker 1: The House is going to go on vacation and they're

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Speaker 1: not going to be back till January fourth. And here's

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Speaker 1: what's going to happen. There's the clock is ticking on

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Speaker 1: a government shutdown, and we could see another government shutdown.

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Speaker 3: Yep.

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Speaker 2: So, speaking of Washington, today, we saw FCC Chair Brendan Carr,

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Speaker 2: a man who loves to put nasty tweets on the internet,

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Speaker 2: just like mister Trump. We saw him get really really

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Speaker 2: ticket apart, especially by Senator Andy Kim today.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk about this. Brendan Carr inadvertently became

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Speaker 1: a superstar when he went on Benny Johnson's podcast and

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Speaker 1: threatened to cancel Jimmy Kimmel. The brave folks over at

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Speaker 1: Disney were like, let's do it. Let's pause Jimmy Kimmel.

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Speaker 1: They paused Jimmy Kimmel, and millions of cancelations of Hulu

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Speaker 1: and Disney Plus follow. So here we are now and

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Speaker 1: we're doing the hearings to figure out what's going on,

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of stuff that happened. Senator ben

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Speaker 1: Ray Luhan from New Mexico says, is the FCC an

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Speaker 1: independent agency? And Car says, thanks for the question, I

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Speaker 1: think and Luhan says yes or no is all that's needed,

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Speaker 1: and Carr says there's a test for this in the

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Speaker 1: Luhan says yes or no, Brendan On the website, it

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Speaker 1: simply says FCC is independent. The FC see is not.

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Speaker 1: So your website is lying and Car says, possibly that

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Speaker 1: is not how it's supposed to go. Ted Cruz area

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Speaker 1: podcaster says, Jimmy Kimmel is angry, overtly partisan, and profoundly unfunny.

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Speaker 1: But what government can I do is force private entities

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Speaker 1: to take options that the government cannot directly take directly

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Speaker 1: government officials threatening adverse consequences for disfavored content is an

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Speaker 1: unconstitutional coercion that chills free speech. Okay, he's right, but.

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Speaker 2: Wow, let me play you this one. I think it's

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Speaker 2: very very funny.

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Speaker 4: Actually, when you're talking about all power vesting in the present,

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Speaker 4: I mean, I just want to read this a little

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Speaker 4: more because you're saying not just that it is an

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Speaker 4: independent agency, but you're saying that Congress did not want

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Speaker 4: these technical decisions to be made in a haphazard manner

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Speaker 4: or based on misinformation or short term political interest. You

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Speaker 4: specifically said it placed the authority outside of the executive

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Speaker 4: branch for a reason, So you were not just state

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Speaker 4: what was what was the the law at the time,

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Speaker 4: You're stating the benefit that comes with the independent So

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Speaker 4: I guess I'm just trying to get a cent from you.

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Speaker 4: If you don't think that the FCC is independent, then

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Speaker 4: is President Trump your boss?

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Speaker 5: President Trump has designated me as chairman of the FCC.

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Speaker 5: I think it comes as no surprise that I'm aligned

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Speaker 5: with President Trump on policy. I think that's why he

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Speaker 5: designated me as chairman. But ultimately you consider him your boss.

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Speaker 1: Ultimately the well.

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Speaker 5: President is chairman. I can be fired by the president.

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Speaker 5: The president is the head of the executive branch.

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Speaker 3: The decisions of the.

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Speaker 6: Commission, he's your boss.

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Speaker 5: Look, look, the decisions of the Commission are going to

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Speaker 5: be based on a vote of the three of us

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Speaker 5: right here. So there are some things that are different

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Speaker 5: about that, and our decisions will be.

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Speaker 3: Based on the facts and the law.

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Speaker 4: When the record, you swore an oath when you came

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Speaker 4: to your job, right, does the oath have the word

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Speaker 4: president in it.

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Speaker 5: Sender Again, I'm not tracking this this line where I'm

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Speaker 5: saying every.

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Speaker 4: Decision you remember the oath that you took, Yeah, everywhere

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Speaker 4: oath to protect what?

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Speaker 5: So every single decision what is it that you're protecting.

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Speaker 3: In this job?

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Speaker 6: We're based on the cons.

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Speaker 1: This is nonsistent.

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Speaker 4: I'm just trying to get a sense of how you're

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Speaker 4: trying to operate here.

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Speaker 1: So you know what, I'm going to give you a

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Speaker 1: worse one with Andy Kim?

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Speaker 6: You ready give it to me.

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Speaker 1: Have you ever had a conversation with the president or

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Speaker 1: senior administration officials about using the FCC to go after critics? Car?

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Speaker 1: He he. I don't get into the specifics of conversations

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Speaker 1: that I have, Kim. Would it be appropriate for the

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Speaker 1: president or senior administration officials to give you directions to

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Speaker 1: pressure media companies? Carr? I'm not going to get into hypotheticals, Kim.

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Speaker 1: The answer is now, it's not a hypothetical. Good for

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Speaker 1: Andy Kim for doing such a good job there.

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Speaker 2: Got great work there, Mollie. Do you remember this fellow

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Speaker 2: Jack Smith?

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Speaker 1: Now, who is that?

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Speaker 2: He's a guy from a weird in between season we

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Speaker 2: had of mister Trump's administrations.

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Speaker 1: Where Democrats tried to find it out. Ability ask me

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Speaker 1: how it went.

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Speaker 2: I no helpe went. So he told lawmakers this team

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Speaker 2: developed proof beyond a reasonable doubt against Trump.

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Speaker 1: Yes, Jack Smith did a whole investigation and got fucked right,

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Speaker 1: and we never saw it. And he is getting increasingly

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Speaker 1: more irritating about it. And that is how we got here.

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Speaker 1: I made decisions in the investigation without regard to President

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Speaker 1: Trump's political association, activities, beliefs, or candidacy in the twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four election. We took actions based on the facts

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Speaker 1: and what the law required. I think we're going to

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Speaker 1: see more from Jack Smith. That's my guess. This is

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Speaker 1: a guy who's mad for any number of reasons, and

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Speaker 1: I think we'll see more of this. We have exciting

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Speaker 1: news over at our YouTube channel. This second episode from

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Speaker 1: our Project twenty twenty nine series is out now. It's

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Speaker 1: a reimagining where we examined what went wrong with democrats

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Speaker 1: approach to politics and how we can correc and deliver

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Speaker 1: changes to help people's lives. The first episode dove into

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Speaker 1: the very sexy topic of campaign finance reform, and our

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Speaker 1: second episode deals with an even sexier topic, antitrust and regulation.

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Speaker 1: We look at how anti trust and regulation can protect

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Speaker 1: American citizens and make America thrive in an era of

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Speaker 1: rampant corruption and predatory crony capitalism. We talk to the

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Speaker 1: smartest names in the field like Lena Khan, el Vero Bedoya,

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Speaker 1: Elizabeth Wilkins, and Doha Mecki. Republicans were prepared for when

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Speaker 1: they got the levers of power. We need democrats to

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Speaker 1: be too. So please head over to YouTube and search

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Speaker 1: Molli John Fast Project twenty twenty nine, or go to

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Speaker 1: the Fast Politics YouTube channel and find it there and

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Speaker 1: help us spread the word. Harry Littman is a former

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Speaker 1: USA attorney and the host of the podcast Talking Feds Mollie.

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Speaker 3: Always fun and informative to be with you. Who starts

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Speaker 3: I have a real question, I have some real ones

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Speaker 3: for you today too.

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Speaker 1: I was talking to someone about this administration and they

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Speaker 1: were saying, well, you know, no one is ever going

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Speaker 1: to get held accountable for anything, and I wondered if

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Speaker 1: we could talk. Obviously, it's a big administration with a

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Speaker 1: lot of people doing a lot of stuff that seems

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Speaker 1: so illegal in different ways. Obviously Trump has presidential god

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Speaker 1: King's status is granted to him by the very maga

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court. But I'm wondering if you could just talk

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Speaker 1: a little bit about ways in which you could see

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Speaker 1: members of this administration who've done illegal stuff being held accountable.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I know, Look, it's a great question, and it's

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Speaker 3: not for lack of crimes and very strong and daily ones.

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Speaker 3: We forget about this. But the whole or sometimes the

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Speaker 3: whole administration started from Trump Everyone's and is in the

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Speaker 3: till people are making money on the different deals, people

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Speaker 3: are maybe committing war crimes, people are lying left and right.

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Speaker 3: But I think I'm going to give you a little

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Speaker 3: political answer, but you can push back. The day will

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Speaker 3: come when there's a different administration in charge and somebody

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Speaker 3: else holds the reins about whether you bring criminal prosecutions

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Speaker 3: at that point, And to me, it's going to engender

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Speaker 3: a really royal debate within the putative new you know,

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Speaker 3: Dems in charge, and you'll have a pretty strong vein

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Speaker 3: of thought. I'm thinking Haikem Jeffries saying, what are you

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Speaker 3: guys crazy? We just got here again. Do you want

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Speaker 3: to actually ruin the whole deal? Let it go, Let

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Speaker 3: it go, Let it go. This is now the stuff

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Speaker 3: of history, and it's just you know, we had to

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Speaker 3: already give up and they did on the worst thing

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Speaker 3: that happened, Mark Meadows, everyone's taking a walk. Besides Trump,

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Speaker 3: there were six different unindicted co conspirators, and when we

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Speaker 3: know who they were for January twentieth itself. So the

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Speaker 3: statute of limitations generally five years will still be open

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Speaker 3: unless we're not even talking twenty eight. And the short

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Speaker 3: answer is, plenty of ways, plenty of possible crimes, plenty

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Speaker 3: of investigations, and if I had to guess, very little

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Speaker 3: will actually happen. I mean, what about the fifty grand

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Speaker 3: in a bag that you know, in the kava bag?

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Speaker 3: That's a can you just let that go?

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Speaker 1: So that we're talking about the fifty grand in a

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Speaker 1: kava bag that came to Tom Holman. It was actually

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Speaker 1: prosecuted during the Biden administration. But the Biden administration was

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Speaker 1: worried that they wouldn't be able to find a guilty

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Speaker 1: verdict because this Supreme Court has said that bribes are.

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Speaker 3: Just tips, that's not it.

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Speaker 1: Give us a background.

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Speaker 3: Look, he walked out, they were going after somebody else.

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Speaker 3: He comes in on a serendipitous thing and says, yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think I could maybe help you if I become

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Speaker 3: orders are or whatever. Would you happen to half fifty

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Speaker 3: thousand dollars in a kava bag? Thank you very much,

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Speaker 3: and leaves the room a total you know, manna from

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Speaker 3: heaven in terms of the Bureau at that point, if

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Speaker 3: they let him leave the room with the money, very unusual.

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Speaker 3: They had in mind some serious follow up investigation. Then

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Speaker 3: Trump comes in and it has all been scuttled. But

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Speaker 3: they are nowhere near the point of saying he's fucking

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Speaker 3: kept the fifty thousand in a bag and that's all

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Speaker 3: the Trump administration. They were nowhere near saying, oh, well,

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Speaker 3: just we'll have some trouble in the courts. Maybe we

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Speaker 3: should let him go with the fifty thousand in a bag.

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Speaker 1: So, but that was some of the reporting said that

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Speaker 1: they did have questions about the Supreme Court too.

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Speaker 3: Eventually, on all of these cases involving trading of government

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Speaker 3: services for cash, there's all you know. Quaar was just

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Speaker 3: pardoned by Trump, right, but he was convicted of getting

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Speaker 3: six hundred thousand dollars and others. And but his defense,

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Speaker 3: as he said on TV, well they couldn't show a

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Speaker 3: quid pro quo, meaning they couldn't show that the things

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Speaker 3: I did for them were in exact exchange. That's dubious,

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Speaker 3: but that's the kind of thing the Supreme Court does.

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Speaker 3: It's that sort of worry anytime you have public official

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Speaker 3: trading favors. But we were nowhere near that. At the

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Speaker 3: point where he walks out of the room with fifty

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Speaker 3: thousand in a bag, they were letting it then proceed

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Speaker 3: that what they're doing now got nothing to do with

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Speaker 3: Supreme Court, got everything to do with fod Freenda Donald.

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Speaker 1: In the explosive Susie Wild's eleven interview interview in Bounie

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Speaker 1: Fair from Chris Whipple, our buddy, are there crimes in

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Speaker 1: that story? Huh?

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Speaker 3: There's evidence of crimes potentially, and that to me is

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Speaker 3: what you know. There's not there's no anything close to

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Speaker 3: a smoking gun. But reprisal prosecutions, for instance, are unlawful

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Speaker 3: and a violation due process clause. You can't stick Trump

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Speaker 3: with them. But that doesn't mean they were in a crime.

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Speaker 3: And you could imagine, but no, I think it's largely

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Speaker 3: that he's got that personality and the reprisal prosecutions and

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Speaker 3: the like. It's less about criminal stuff and more and

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Speaker 3: now if I can, if I can do a jiu

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Speaker 3: jitsu here, this is not this is so interesting to me.

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Speaker 3: She came out with stuff that alcoholics personality. Yeah, we

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Speaker 3: do reprisal prosecutions. Tried to keep it to ninety days.

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Speaker 3: Some of you know, some of the stuff about Vance,

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Speaker 3: the messing up by BONDI, those aren't criminal. But what's

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Speaker 3: the story? The next day Trump stands behind her. Is

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Speaker 3: this one of these kind of unofficial official profiles that

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Speaker 3: everyone in a very nuanced, sophisticated Washington way participated in

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Speaker 3: and she's still in good stead. How in this most

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Speaker 3: pressed phobic and insular administration does does this kind of

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Speaker 3: thing happen? And everything's hunky dory?

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Speaker 1: Yeah? I think that's a really really good point on

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Speaker 1: a really good question. All right, ask me your question.

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Speaker 3: That was the question was, give me you know, did

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Speaker 3: they all sort of in a very sort of washingt

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Speaker 3: inside or way, we'll do this because we're getting killed.

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Speaker 3: We got to go outside the comfort zone. And she'll

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Speaker 3: deny it and then act upset. But it's all, yeah, now,

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Speaker 3: what happened.

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Speaker 1: What I think happened is Chris has done books about

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Speaker 1: chiefs of staff before, and Susie has done very well

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Speaker 1: in Trump world for any number of reasons. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what's happening in her head, but I think Chris

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Speaker 1: has done a lot of chief of staff books. I

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Speaker 1: think this administration, while it does certainly break a lot

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Speaker 1: of rules, it feels that he still wants to be

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Speaker 1: a president, right. He wants to occupy the normal channels

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Speaker 1: of the presidency, and while he wants to be an

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Speaker 1: imperial president, he likes pomp and circumstance more than many people.

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Speaker 1: So I think that she probably does too. So she

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Speaker 1: gave the interview because she's like, I'm a very successful

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Speaker 1: chief of staff, just like other chiefs of staff before me.

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Speaker 1: And it was eleven interviews, and she got talking and

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Speaker 1: she said stuff, and I don't think there was I don't.

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Speaker 1: I always think the worst possible thing you can do

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Speaker 1: is ascribe meaning to any of this, do you know

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Speaker 1: what I mean? Like, they're not geniuses, they're not doing

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Speaker 1: fifteen dimensional chests. They're largely incompetent, and they've scared a

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Speaker 1: lot of people into going along with them.

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Speaker 3: All right, And if you're good, like Chris you can

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Speaker 3: get people over eleven sessions to say stuff, explain that

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Speaker 3: day after the predictable headlines are the negative things that

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Speaker 3: maybe she let slip out. Why does Trump seem to

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Speaker 3: be totally okay with it? Compare you know, when Kelly

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Speaker 3: came out against him, saying.

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Speaker 1: Because she's not coming out again, She's just saying a

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Speaker 1: couple of things about him. Yeah, the whole hallmark of

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Speaker 1: Trump two point oh versus Trump one point zero is

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Speaker 1: Trump one point zero. He would just completely flip out

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Speaker 1: and people get fired. People get this, People get that

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Speaker 1: Trump two point zero is completely different. Right, It's just

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Speaker 1: a completely different way of looking at you know, he

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Speaker 1: just everything is intentional. Nobody gets fired. They doubled down

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Speaker 1: on things, and so when it blows up it's going

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Speaker 1: to be ten times more catastrophic because there's almost no

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Speaker 1: release valve. But I mean, look at the tariffs. Right.

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Speaker 1: But I think that ultimately this is exactly what I

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Speaker 1: thought they would do, and it worked for them, Right,

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Speaker 1: They circled the wagons. They said she never If Trump

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Speaker 1: had said, you know, this is a catastrophe and I'm done.

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Speaker 1: If Trump had said that, it would have totally changed

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Speaker 1: the calculus of everything. It would have opened him up

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Speaker 1: to a lot of scrutiny that otherwise he can avoid.

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Speaker 3: Okay, I mean, I guess I see that to me

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Speaker 3: as a doj and it's and it's your turn, but

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Speaker 3: I'll just say, Okay, he's got an alcoholics personality. You

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Speaker 3: can see that as a backhanded compliment. But okay, we

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Speaker 3: do reprisal prosecutions, but try to limit it to ninety days.

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Speaker 3: That to me is like, you know, not a modest concession.

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Speaker 1: Can you use that? I mean, is it covered by

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Speaker 1: executive privilege?

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Speaker 3: Oh, he can get away with anything because of the

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Speaker 3: Supreme Court. It would have been a crime. It's clearly

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Speaker 3: a constitutional violation to do them, and you clearly get

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Speaker 3: the case dismissed. The short answer is does it is

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Speaker 3: there a fall up criminal prosecution in any world, even

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Speaker 3: a very liberal administration world. And the answer to that

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Speaker 3: is no, there'll never be any criminal repercussions. But it'll

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Speaker 3: be you know, quite egg on their face when and

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Speaker 3: if it's dismissed saying that that's what they did. The

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Speaker 3: candor of it really kind of blew me away. But

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Speaker 3: here you go, your turn.

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Speaker 1: My question for you is Pete hegsath. So Trump has

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Speaker 1: a legal framework from the Supreme Court do whatever he wants.

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Speaker 1: But Pete Haig said, seems like he's got more culpability here,

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Speaker 1: does he, And like, how worried should he be?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think he does and fairly worried. Look, I

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Speaker 3: think let's just zero in on that second strike September second.

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Speaker 3: I think it's going to transpire that that's either if

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Speaker 3: the OLC supposed justification the kind of equivalent of the

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Speaker 3: of the torture memos here holds up, which I believe

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Speaker 3: it will not. But let's say we are at war

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Speaker 3: in some analogous way because of these boats that we

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Speaker 3: call narco terrorists bringing drugs to the US, then it's

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Speaker 3: a war crime, and it's a textbook war crime Department

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Speaker 3: of Defense manual war crime. People hanging on to debris

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Speaker 3: and rarely surviving. And if we're not it's if it's

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Speaker 3: a war crime, it's a so called extra judicial killing.

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Speaker 3: If we're not at war, it's a flat out homicide.

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Speaker 3: So there's jeopardy there, and I don't think he can

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Speaker 3: stand behind different immunity doctrines. But it looks to me

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Speaker 3: what he's trying to do and so far with some

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Speaker 3: success is just say I had nothing to do with it.

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Speaker 3: Admiral Bradley made the call and the fog of war

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Speaker 3: and I have left, et cetera. If the responsibility actually

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Speaker 3: gets you know, put in his lap. Yeah, there's a

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Speaker 3: possibility of criminal potential consequences again that will they happen?

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Speaker 1: Is there a precedent for that?

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Speaker 3: Yeah? Vietnam Lieutenant Kelly. Right, he rubs out an entire village,

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Speaker 3: twenty two people, and he says, mine, superiors a legal order,

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Speaker 3: you're going to jail. So yeah, there would be. But

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Speaker 3: now actually I was going to I had other things,

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Speaker 3: But let me stick with Heseth. What the hell seems

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Speaker 3: like such a cowboy, such a controversial figure. Just this

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Speaker 3: morning on the Hill you have senator after senator, Republican

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Speaker 3: senator saying what the hell are you doing with Senator

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Speaker 3: Kelly and trying to court martial m for making the

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Speaker 3: public a driver? Why does he stick around? You would

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Speaker 3: think with everything that's going on, he would just be

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Speaker 3: the kind of sacrificial lamb. But in fact, you know

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Speaker 3: he's not just sticking around, But they're going further a

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Speaker 3: field on the on the missions, and he's beating his

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Speaker 3: chest about him. What's the deal with his you know,

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Speaker 3: enduring with the White House?

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Speaker 1: Why does Trump keep RFK Junior around? I mean, RFK

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Speaker 1: Junior I think is a really really comparable to Pete Hagsath,

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Speaker 1: because they're both needlessly problematic if Trump's goals in office

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Speaker 1: are too cleptocracize, right, he loves sice and to make

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Speaker 1: money and to you know, enact Project twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 1: Neither of those two men do either of those things

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Speaker 1: for him, right. But what I would say is the

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Speaker 1: whole ethos, as we were talking about before I Trump

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Speaker 1: is is that you make a mistake, you just keep

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Speaker 1: going right. So, was haig set the right person for

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Speaker 1: the job? Obviously not. There's volumeous information here, and the

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Speaker 1: fact that we're you know, the fact that he is

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Speaker 1: in so much trouble in many different ways strikes me

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Speaker 1: that he was clearly not the right person for the job.

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Speaker 1: And RFK Junior promised he wasn't going to end vaccine

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Speaker 1: mandates and now he's going after Hepatitis B vaccines. I mean,

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Speaker 1: just undoubtedly these are both terrible people for the job.

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Speaker 1: But again, if you start firing people, you open the

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Speaker 1: door to having been wrong, and that is why Mike

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Speaker 1: Waltz from the National Security Guy ended up getting moved

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Speaker 1: and not fired.

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Speaker 3: Got it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I just think that's the ethos. I wonder

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Speaker 1: if you could explain to us when you look at

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Speaker 1: this administration's sort of war on universities, there seems like

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of quid pro quo that strikes me

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Speaker 1: as not legal. Or these compacts that want them to sign,

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Speaker 1: the threats against foreign students, the threats against funding, like

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Speaker 1: what of this stuff seems like obviously not doable for

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Speaker 1: them legally.

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Speaker 3: Next to nothing, I think because of the you know,

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Speaker 3: it does feel like, doesn't it. What's the line of Godfather,

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Speaker 3: either your brains or your signature is going to be

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Speaker 3: on that paper. It's terribly coercive. And what's the coercion.

434
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:34,200
Speaker 3: It's threats to do other unlawful things that nevertheless will

435
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 3: make universities miserable. Some of those other things are potentially

436
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,600
Speaker 3: lawful as the basic rub because all the universities are

437
00:24:42,640 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 3: being confronted with illegal demands with the understanding that if

438
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 3: you don't capitulate, they're always able to give back money

439
00:24:51,640 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 3: or whatever. If you don't capitulate, there's going to be

440
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:57,280
Speaker 3: sixteen different ways in which I can and will make

441
00:24:57,320 --> 00:25:01,840
Speaker 3: your lives miserable. Notwithstanding that it's as in so much

442
00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:05,399
Speaker 3: in Trump Land, the real sufferers here are not the universe.

443
00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:08,119
Speaker 3: It's the American people. You know. For instance, you know,

444
00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 3: the hugely successful compact between government and universities has done

445
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: so much in healthcare and other research, et cetera. That's

446
00:25:15,880 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 3: what's being threatened, so all of it. You know, every

447
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,440
Speaker 3: time they've gone to court, if you if you isolate

448
00:25:21,560 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 3: out the demand, court after court, starting with Harvard have

449
00:25:25,640 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 3: said you can't do that. That's a violation of the

450
00:25:27,640 --> 00:25:32,639
Speaker 3: First Amendment in particular, and also a pa other schemes.

451
00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 3: And but they're putting it in under the guise of

452
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:39,160
Speaker 3: just a just a deal, you know, between two arms

453
00:25:39,240 --> 00:25:41,919
Speaker 3: length people. That's that's false as a pre you know,

454
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:45,879
Speaker 3: it's it's kind of bogus. But it does give a

455
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: kind of legal approval to it. And that's the issue.

456
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 3: Do the law firms and the media people and the

457
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 3: universities knuckle under and give away stuff that not only

458
00:25:56,640 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 3: they don't have to, but it's actually illegal to force

459
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 3: them to that to me, actually, Molly in a legal

460
00:26:02,520 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 3: way is what's really marked Trump two point zero? All

461
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:09,159
Speaker 3: the ways he's infiltrated civil society to change everyone. I

462
00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 3: got one question left. I think I just got to

463
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 3: go with what seemed like, is it possible? And even

464
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 3: low water mark for Trump? The statement after reiners stabbing,

465
00:26:20,280 --> 00:26:24,680
Speaker 3: does this qualify under as grotesque and kind of self

466
00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:27,080
Speaker 3: centered as it was? Oh, you make a mistake and

467
00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,880
Speaker 3: you go on? Did he say exactly what he wanted

468
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 3: to say? And his base wants to hear you know,

469
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:36,960
Speaker 3: he was stabbed to death because of Trump derangement syndrome?

470
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:40,639
Speaker 3: You know what? The hell? Even for him? Is my question?

471
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:45,800
Speaker 1: He's done worse Trump. The thing about Rob Reiner is

472
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:49,800
Speaker 1: that he's famous in Hollywood. He's like an insider. Trump

473
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: has never been an insider, and part of his pathology

474
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 1: is that he's not an insider, you know, And he

475
00:26:55,720 --> 00:26:58,480
Speaker 1: was always obsessed with the Hollywood people who hated him,

476
00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 1: like Deborah Messing. You know. So this is a long

477
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:06,600
Speaker 1: pathology for him. It's a stupid move politically because his

478
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 1: power is already on the way and he's the lame

479
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,719
Speaker 1: duck and he comes up with this terrible tweet, and

480
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:15,679
Speaker 1: you see Republicans break with him. And every time Trump

481
00:27:15,920 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: offers the chance for Republicans to break with him, it

482
00:27:18,920 --> 00:27:22,240
Speaker 1: diminishes his power. So if he had just said nothing,

483
00:27:22,600 --> 00:27:24,600
Speaker 1: he would have been ten times better off than what

484
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:28,919
Speaker 1: he did say, which was this just disgusting tweet. And

485
00:27:28,960 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: then you had a couple of Republicans break with him,

486
00:27:31,600 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 1: even like the Republican senator from Louisiana who always speaks

487
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: like Foghorn Leghorn, John Kennedy who said, you know, I

488
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: would have not said anything, you know, some kind of

489
00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: and you know, every time Trump does that, he decreases

490
00:27:48,640 --> 00:27:52,480
Speaker 1: his power. So it's just stupid and the reality is

491
00:27:52,520 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 1: that makes him look terrible. And also just leave it alone.

492
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:58,520
Speaker 3: Okay, well, at least that's what I was kind of

493
00:27:58,640 --> 00:28:02,320
Speaker 3: aiming for. You know, there are some consequences in some

494
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 3: waiting power if you measure as I agree with the

495
00:28:05,280 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 3: important point being Republicans in Congress that have facilitated him

496
00:28:09,280 --> 00:28:12,760
Speaker 3: again again, man, will what will we be looking at

497
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:13,359
Speaker 3: in a month?

498
00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 1: We'll be talking from Gitmo. Thank you for having.

499
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,240
Speaker 3: Me, Harry, thank you for being here.

500
00:28:21,119 --> 00:28:25,080
Speaker 1: Paul Krugman is a novel laureate, a professor of economics ACUNI,

501
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:29,280
Speaker 1: and the author of the substract, Paul Krubman, Welcome to

502
00:28:29,320 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 1: Fast Politics, Paul Krukman, Pier really glad to have you.

503
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: The economy is both good and bad, or bad or

504
00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:38,920
Speaker 1: hiddenly bad.

505
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 6: Oh boy, it's I mean, it is not great. To

506
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 6: use the turk till term. It's not a disaster, at

507
00:28:45,920 --> 00:28:49,840
Speaker 6: least not yet. This is not a recession, we don't think.

508
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:54,840
Speaker 6: We're probably still adding some jobs. The economy is still growing,

509
00:28:55,560 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 6: but it is not great. And particularly it's a first

510
00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:02,320
Speaker 6: of all, there's affordability. A lot of people are finding

511
00:29:02,440 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 6: stuff expensive. And it's also an economy in which not

512
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,760
Speaker 6: that many people are unemployed, though that number is going up.

513
00:29:10,840 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 6: But if you should happen to be out of a job,

514
00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:16,760
Speaker 6: finding a new one has gotten really, really hard. So

515
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:20,320
Speaker 6: this is kind of a dreary, bleak economy in a

516
00:29:20,360 --> 00:29:23,480
Speaker 6: lot of ways. You know, again, it's nineteen thirty three,

517
00:29:23,520 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 6: it's not but it's not good.

518
00:29:25,080 --> 00:29:27,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, so let's talk about that, because it's like not

519
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:32,520
Speaker 1: nineteen thirty three, but is it sort of the mid seventies.

520
00:29:33,000 --> 00:29:37,239
Speaker 6: Well, inflation is nowhere close to those levels, right, There

521
00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 6: was a pretty different when we had fourteen percent inflation

522
00:29:40,240 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 6: and it's more like three plus something, although you know

523
00:29:43,680 --> 00:29:47,720
Speaker 6: it depends on what you're looking at. And unemployment, you know,

524
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,520
Speaker 6: four point six percent, although if you look at a

525
00:29:50,520 --> 00:29:53,680
Speaker 6: broader measure, it's close to ten percent. But that was

526
00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 6: way higher in nineteen eighty. So it's it's not even

527
00:29:59,400 --> 00:30:02,400
Speaker 6: or it's not two thousand and nine. It's not the

528
00:30:02,440 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 6: aftermath of financial crisis.

529
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:05,400
Speaker 1: You know.

530
00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:08,520
Speaker 6: The thing is that things. What's your comparison? You're the

531
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:10,920
Speaker 6: worst the US economy has ever been. No, it's not

532
00:30:11,120 --> 00:30:13,479
Speaker 6: like it's not the worst it's ever been. Is it

533
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:17,200
Speaker 6: the economy that Donald Trump promised in twenty twenty four?

534
00:30:17,680 --> 00:30:21,040
Speaker 6: Boy nowhere close? And is it the he claims to see?

535
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 6: Boy nowhere close.

536
00:30:22,960 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 1: One of the things that I think is interesting about

537
00:30:27,080 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: trump Ism is that Trump does things where he goes

538
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: back and makes mistakes that other presidents have made because

539
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 1: he doesn't understand history or isn't interested in it. And

540
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,560
Speaker 1: so one of the mistakes that it feels like we're

541
00:30:40,600 --> 00:30:44,320
Speaker 1: watching him make is pressuring the fad. Can you talk

542
00:30:44,480 --> 00:30:48,640
Speaker 1: about that and where? Because like, clearly Nixon did this

543
00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:52,880
Speaker 1: and it had huge, huge consequences.

544
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 6: That's right, Nixon did it in the United States that's

545
00:30:55,920 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 6: a one time, you know, that's the only really bad

546
00:30:59,480 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 6: time for the United States. But Nixon did it and

547
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 6: helped to set off the inflation of the nineteen seventies

548
00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 6: because the FED basically printed money to help him win

549
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 6: the seventy two election, and then we all paid the

550
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:14,800
Speaker 6: price afterwards. But they're much much worse than more recent examples.

551
00:31:14,960 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 3: So a lot of.

552
00:31:15,760 --> 00:31:18,840
Speaker 6: Us are looking at Turkey, where there's a Trump like figure,

553
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 6: presidenter dohan Is who pressured their equivalent to the FED

554
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 6: to roll the printing presses, listen to some crank economists

555
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 6: who told him that would degrade, and he managed to

556
00:31:29,640 --> 00:31:32,920
Speaker 6: get inflation up to eighty percent before he finally realized that, hey,

557
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,560
Speaker 6: maybe the people saying this is a bad idea have something,

558
00:31:36,680 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 6: you know, are onto something. I won't expand on this

559
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 6: for a bit, if you excuse please. The thing about

560
00:31:41,840 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 6: the fair Reserve, so you know, it's a kind of

561
00:31:43,760 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 6: mysterious institution and it's all very technical and so on.

562
00:31:47,400 --> 00:31:50,240
Speaker 6: The main thing to say is that the big problem

563
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:54,040
Speaker 6: with FED policy is that it is so easy to use.

564
00:31:54,680 --> 00:31:57,960
Speaker 6: You know, you want to cut taxes or increased spending

565
00:31:58,120 --> 00:32:00,760
Speaker 6: or whatever it is you want to do. Normally you

566
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 6: have to pass legislation, has to go through Congress, go

567
00:32:03,800 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 6: through hearing, and so on. The Fed can change interest

568
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:10,440
Speaker 6: rates on a dime. It's literally a bunch of people

569
00:32:10,480 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 6: in Washington have a meeting vote. At the conclusion of

570
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 6: the vote, the results are transmitted to some guys sitting

571
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 6: at computer screens in New York, and instantly things happen

572
00:32:22,720 --> 00:32:26,680
Speaker 6: in the markets. So it's a frictionless policy thing, which

573
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 6: is a very dangerous thing to put in the hands

574
00:32:28,800 --> 00:32:32,880
Speaker 6: of politicians. One thing, if you want to have a process.

575
00:32:32,920 --> 00:32:35,280
Speaker 6: You know, we're supposed to be a democracy and in

576
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:39,240
Speaker 6: the end the public you know, you know, we make

577
00:32:39,280 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 6: policy based upon, well, hopefully in the end, what voters want.

578
00:32:43,800 --> 00:32:46,720
Speaker 6: But this is something where you can do immense damage

579
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 6: and you can do it at the drop of a hat.

580
00:32:49,320 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 6: It's just such an easy thing. And so we've all learned,

581
00:32:52,920 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 6: we meaning pretty much the whole advanced world, has learned

582
00:32:56,240 --> 00:32:59,760
Speaker 6: that you want to put up some speed bumps here.

583
00:33:00,200 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 6: You want to make the Federal Reserve or its equivalent,

584
00:33:03,440 --> 00:33:07,720
Speaker 6: politically insulated so that you know, in the long run, Yeah,

585
00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:11,640
Speaker 6: the board is appointed by elected officials, but for long terms,

586
00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 6: and they don't get to You don't get to dictate

587
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 6: this dangerously effective, fast moving policy instrument based upon the

588
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,360
Speaker 6: whims of whoever sitting in the Oval office.

589
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 1: So let's talk about that, because that seems meaningful. Right now,

590
00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,480
Speaker 1: we have a FED chair who is almost his term

591
00:33:32,520 --> 00:33:37,960
Speaker 1: is almost over. Trump is toying with putting Kevin Hassett

592
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 1: as the FED chair. Won't that actually what you're warning

593
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 1: about be ten times worse with the Trump sucker fan

594
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:45,800
Speaker 1: charing the FED.

595
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,520
Speaker 6: Well, it's certainly a problem now that the FED is

596
00:33:49,640 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 6: not like a corporation where the CEO just makes a decision.

597
00:33:54,080 --> 00:33:57,760
Speaker 6: It's to be interest rates are set by a board,

598
00:33:57,920 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 6: actually by a committee the Federal Open Market Can, which

599
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 6: is not all of whose members are appointed by the president,

600
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 6: and not all of whose members for sure will have

601
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,680
Speaker 6: been appointed by the current president. So that if we

602
00:34:09,800 --> 00:34:13,800
Speaker 6: get an idiot in charge of the FED, Kevin Hassett.

603
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: Kevin Hassett is an idiot.

604
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, he kind of is. I mean, sorry, let by

605
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 6: he seems cheerful, he's cheerful, amiable. I mean. There was

606
00:34:24,440 --> 00:34:28,279
Speaker 6: this poll CEE NBC. The poll to have financial experts

607
00:34:28,480 --> 00:34:31,680
Speaker 6: who specialize in monitary policy, and they asked him who

608
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 6: will be the next FED cheer and who should be?

609
00:34:34,719 --> 00:34:38,000
Speaker 6: And eighty four percent said that Hassett will be, and

610
00:34:38,080 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 6: only eleven percent said he should be. I mean, so

611
00:34:40,960 --> 00:34:44,000
Speaker 6: my opinion is not actually that different from what hard

612
00:34:44,000 --> 00:34:47,719
Speaker 6: bitten Walls Creek guys think they would be. There's a

613
00:34:47,800 --> 00:34:51,760
Speaker 6: possibility that this guy named Waller, who's a FED insider, will

614
00:34:51,880 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 6: still somehow nake it. And I'm okay with that because

615
00:34:54,640 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 6: he's a professional, he's actually knows this stuff has gotten

616
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:02,960
Speaker 6: some right. And but if I think it's highly unlikely

617
00:35:02,960 --> 00:35:06,000
Speaker 6: that Trump will pick him, because anybody who's competent and

618
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 6: hasn't dependent reputation can't be counted on to do Trump's bidding.

619
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,839
Speaker 6: So my guess is it's it's Hacid or the other

620
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 6: Kevin Kevin worsh who is well better than Hasard. But

621
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 6: that's not much of a criterion.

622
00:35:19,080 --> 00:35:22,000
Speaker 1: Right, all right, So go on. So but doesn't it

623
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:25,120
Speaker 1: seem like we're heading right into a disaster.

624
00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:30,320
Speaker 6: Well it's yeah, Now there's still enough guardrails probably still

625
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 6: in place that Trump doesn't get his doesn't get to

626
00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:36,600
Speaker 6: dictate the decisions, and that if he does appoint to

627
00:35:36,600 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 6: siicophant as he almost certainly will said sickophant will not

628
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,879
Speaker 6: be able to do all that much damage, at least

629
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:46,440
Speaker 6: initially because he'll be he'll lose a lot of votes,

630
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:48,759
Speaker 6: which basically never happens, by the way, a compliment that

631
00:35:48,920 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 6: he always make sure that that the that he has

632
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:56,479
Speaker 6: the board behind him. But in this case probably Now

633
00:35:56,840 --> 00:36:01,040
Speaker 6: one question is can Trump pressure for other members the

634
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 6: FED board out of office. And there's still this insane

635
00:36:05,440 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 6: attack on Lisa Cook. You know, it happens to be

636
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 6: a friend, by the way, but in any case is

637
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 6: a you know, sensible, highly qualified of course black women.

638
00:36:15,160 --> 00:36:19,280
Speaker 6: Guess what, And this totally trumped up claims of mortgage fraud,

639
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 6: you know, which even if it were true, which it isn't,

640
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 6: has nothing to do with her job with the FED.

641
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:30,920
Speaker 6: So if Trump can actually basically intimidate or fire the

642
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 6: rest of the of the FED, then then then the

643
00:36:34,400 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 6: worst happens. Then we are Turkey, we are Argentina, which

644
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,480
Speaker 6: is clearly you know where Trump wants to take us.

645
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:42,280
Speaker 6: So it's just a question of maybe you can't actually

646
00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:42,839
Speaker 6: pull it off.

647
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,960
Speaker 1: And so the goal is to sort of stop Trump's

648
00:36:46,000 --> 00:36:49,880
Speaker 1: worst financial instincts, which is to lower interest rates in

649
00:36:49,920 --> 00:36:50,600
Speaker 1: print money.

650
00:36:51,239 --> 00:36:53,759
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean sometimes you do want to, you know,

651
00:36:54,040 --> 00:36:57,520
Speaker 6: if this latest jobs report was pretty weak, which kind

652
00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 6: of reinforces the case that maybe the Fed does want

653
00:37:00,440 --> 00:37:02,320
Speaker 6: to cut rates. There are a few people on the

654
00:37:02,360 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 6: planet I would trust less with this decision than Donald Trump.

655
00:37:05,760 --> 00:37:08,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. One, So let's talk about like some of the

656
00:37:09,000 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: information that we're getting now from like, for example, Trump

657
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,040
Speaker 1: fire the head of the Bureau and later labor and

658
00:37:15,080 --> 00:37:19,279
Speaker 1: statistics that was in the earlier in this season, Like

659
00:37:19,480 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: do you trust the data coming out of there? And

660
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,520
Speaker 1: do you trust data from this admin? Writ large?

661
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 6: Okay for now, yes, I mean on Bureau labor statistics,

662
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 6: I mean Trump fired the head of the Bureau of

663
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 6: the Bureau he didn't like a number. But the acting

664
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 6: head is another long term professional, and this is an

665
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:44,560
Speaker 6: organization that has a long professional and there's a lot

666
00:37:44,600 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 6: more that goes into producing those reports, I think than

667
00:37:47,120 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 6: people like Trump. Imagine, you can't just take a sharpion

668
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,640
Speaker 6: pencil in a few numbers, It'll be obvious that they

669
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:55,920
Speaker 6: were faked. So we would know if they were faking it,

670
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,840
Speaker 6: and that's not happening yet. This latest jobs report is

671
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:04,360
Speaker 6: something Trump wanted to see and his attempt to install

672
00:38:04,440 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 6: this guy Antony, who chief econos at the Heritage Foundation,

673
00:38:08,680 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 6: and also of course being a Trump guy. Guy is

674
00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 6: a real piece of work. Turns out that he had

675
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 6: a private Twitter account that was full of grotesque stuff.

676
00:38:20,120 --> 00:38:23,920
Speaker 1: Why do they all have private Twitter? Why do you

677
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: have to tweet racist stuff? Like, if you think you're

678
00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:29,440
Speaker 1: going to get a big job, why not just sustain.

679
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 6: I think basically, yeah, it's just reasoning. It's kind of

680
00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:38,680
Speaker 6: like how members of the Italian criminal class get disfiguring tattoos.

681
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 6: It's kind of a loyalty. Yeah, this guy was really

682
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,560
Speaker 6: I mean it might have gotten the job helpless was

683
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 6: he really doesn't know his stuff at all, but this

684
00:38:47,400 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 6: kind of came out. I was curious. It turned out

685
00:38:50,160 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 6: that that on his Twitter account he had repeatedly accused

686
00:38:53,680 --> 00:38:56,879
Speaker 6: me personally of being a pedophile. So, by the way,

687
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:00,280
Speaker 6: he's still chief economists at the Heritage Foundation, which should

688
00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:03,760
Speaker 6: tell you something about Heritage, Yeah, I should, Yeah, cooking

689
00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,520
Speaker 6: the books. I won't say it can't happen, it very much, can.

690
00:39:06,640 --> 00:39:08,680
Speaker 6: I mean we've seen it happen in other countries. It's

691
00:39:08,719 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 6: a bigger project. I think these than they appreciate. So

692
00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:16,160
Speaker 6: if they start. If there's a cooked BLS report, I

693
00:39:16,239 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 6: will immediately be getting seventy three texts from people connected

694
00:39:20,719 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 6: with the agency saying, you should you know, all health

695
00:39:24,640 --> 00:39:28,520
Speaker 6: health broken boose here now yeah, CDC, I you know,

696
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:33,120
Speaker 6: if we have a major we already have a major

697
00:39:33,200 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 6: meutles outbreak, but if we have major infectious disease outbreaks,

698
00:39:35,960 --> 00:39:38,960
Speaker 6: actually have to now trust any numbers we may be

699
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 6: getting out of r FKJ and your sentence for disease control.

700
00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:47,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, of I mean undoubtedly. Look, Trump is not popular.

701
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:50,680
Speaker 1: His numbers on the economy are terrible. The tariff situation,

702
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,240
Speaker 1: you know, he's already said that if the Supreme Court

703
00:39:53,280 --> 00:39:56,319
Speaker 1: finds against him, he'll figure out another way to do it.

704
00:39:56,640 --> 00:39:58,560
Speaker 1: Do you think there's any world in which Trump takes

705
00:39:58,600 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 1: the off ramp on the tariffs.

706
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 6: It's possible that he might. You know, Trump has no

707
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:06,040
Speaker 6: idea what is going on in the world. I think

708
00:40:06,040 --> 00:40:10,200
Speaker 6: he sincerely believes that the economy is great, that he

709
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:13,839
Speaker 6: sincerely believes that the American people love tariffs. Because who's

710
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,760
Speaker 6: going to tell him no, right, I mean, surrounded completely

711
00:40:16,800 --> 00:40:20,360
Speaker 6: by by essac of fans and yes people, and of

712
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:24,319
Speaker 6: course he himself, you know, I had. People are saying,

713
00:40:24,480 --> 00:40:28,359
Speaker 6: when was the last time he brought groceries? Probably he

714
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,440
Speaker 6: never in his life bought groceries. I mean, this is

715
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 6: a guy who's completely insulated from the reality of life.

716
00:40:33,560 --> 00:40:36,080
Speaker 6: So when things are going badly, his first instinct is

717
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 6: to insist on an alternate reality. Yeah, he has an

718
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:41,920
Speaker 6: off ramp, but I don't think he's going to take it.

719
00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:44,640
Speaker 1: What is the biggest pressure right now on the economy?

720
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:47,839
Speaker 1: Is it the tariffs, because it feels like they I mean,

721
00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:50,400
Speaker 1: I feel it in my day to day life, tariffs,

722
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 1: like clothing is more expensive and olive oil is more expensive.

723
00:40:56,000 --> 00:41:00,640
Speaker 1: And but is that the biggest down sure that the

724
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,640
Speaker 1: economy has right now or is that just the consumer economy?

725
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,560
Speaker 6: Well, for now, it's the biggest down pressure. But if

726
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:08,520
Speaker 6: you want to ask what really scares me about the

727
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 6: economy in the next year or so, it's not the tariffs,

728
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:17,520
Speaker 6: which are doing damage, but people do maybe they overhype

729
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:18,680
Speaker 6: the damage the tariffs do.

730
00:41:18,760 --> 00:41:20,520
Speaker 1: It's real, and you.

731
00:41:20,520 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 6: Forgot to mention that the good that really isn't essential

732
00:41:23,360 --> 00:41:25,759
Speaker 6: for me, which is coffee, which is way great. But

733
00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 6: I'm worried, very worried about this whole AI thing where

734
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,480
Speaker 6: you know, our economy, we would be in a recession

735
00:41:32,520 --> 00:41:36,960
Speaker 6: now if it wasn't for this boom in data center construction.

736
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:41,200
Speaker 6: And it's looked very very hard to see multiple things.

737
00:41:41,160 --> 00:41:43,840
Speaker 6: So it's very hard to see how companies can possibly

738
00:41:43,880 --> 00:41:46,600
Speaker 6: make enough money to justify the spending. There are a

739
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,560
Speaker 6: lot of ways in which AI is. I talk to people,

740
00:41:49,600 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 6: it's kind of yeah, it's not it's it's real. It

741
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:54,000
Speaker 6: does stuff, but it's kind of hitting a wall in

742
00:41:54,080 --> 00:41:55,839
Speaker 6: terms of what it can do, and they're running out

743
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 6: of electricity. This is supposed to be it's intelligence, it's

744
00:41:58,760 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 6: the thoughts attract but it actually turns out to consume

745
00:42:02,719 --> 00:42:05,239
Speaker 6: a hell of a lot of kill one hours, and

746
00:42:06,440 --> 00:42:09,520
Speaker 6: we don't really have the electricity generating capacity to support

747
00:42:09,560 --> 00:42:12,680
Speaker 6: this thing, especially with Trump castling all of the renewable

748
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 6: energy projects. So there's a lot of ways. There's kind

749
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:19,640
Speaker 6: of like three different ways that the AI bubble can burst,

750
00:42:20,239 --> 00:42:23,400
Speaker 6: and when it does, with consumers already strapped because of

751
00:42:23,520 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 6: tariffs and weak job markets, then it is very easy

752
00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:29,280
Speaker 6: to see the economy sliding.

753
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:31,680
Speaker 1: What are the three ways in which it can it

754
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 1: can crash. It can crash, I mean the AI bubble

755
00:42:36,800 --> 00:42:37,920
Speaker 1: can pomp okay.

756
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 6: One is that it turns out that AI isn't all

757
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:44,120
Speaker 6: that that the limits of what it can do and

758
00:42:44,200 --> 00:42:48,920
Speaker 6: that seems very possible. Well, it's really mixed. I mean,

759
00:42:49,040 --> 00:42:51,320
Speaker 6: people tell me that it actually is a pretty AI

760
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,400
Speaker 6: is pretty good at coding and you know, writing software

761
00:42:54,560 --> 00:42:56,240
Speaker 6: so much for all that you know, learned to code

762
00:42:56,280 --> 00:42:59,160
Speaker 6: to secure your future, it's really pretty bad at things

763
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:01,799
Speaker 6: that involve any thing that looks like human judgment, you know,

764
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 6: I know, the hallucinates and all of that. So one

765
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:06,040
Speaker 6: is that the AI itself is not all that. The

766
00:43:06,120 --> 00:43:10,200
Speaker 6: other is that AI is fine, but it's not profitable.

767
00:43:10,360 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 6: The idea was that these you know, that Sam Alton

768
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 6: was going to build a company and he'd be so

769
00:43:16,160 --> 00:43:18,440
Speaker 6: far ahead and you rake in the profits. And it

770
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:21,879
Speaker 6: turns out that there are multiple other companies that have

771
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 6: AI models that are about as good as what he

772
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:28,759
Speaker 6: can do. And the Chinese have been developing a more

773
00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:33,759
Speaker 6: sort of modest approach with less comprehensive models that that

774
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:36,040
Speaker 6: are much much cheaper to run, and they may be

775
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,719
Speaker 6: the winners in this, but maynt that. Basically that this

776
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 6: is a ends up being kind of a competitive industry

777
00:43:41,880 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 6: where nobody's earning a lot of profits, and then these

778
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:49,239
Speaker 6: companies are on the hook for enormous amounts of money

779
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:53,160
Speaker 6: they borrowed, they've signed long term leases, and so you

780
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 6: could have a financial disaster. You can have a successful

781
00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 6: technology that's also a disaster, like the telecom boom in

782
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 6: the nineties. You know, most of the promises about what

783
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 6: fiber optics would do for us came true. Most of

784
00:44:08,520 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 6: the companies that were making those promises went bust. And

785
00:44:11,600 --> 00:44:13,839
Speaker 6: the third way is just the power shortage. I mean,

786
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 6: the more I look into the electricity supply issue, the

787
00:44:18,239 --> 00:44:19,200
Speaker 6: worse it looks.

788
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:22,680
Speaker 1: And the irony of that is like had they had

789
00:44:22,760 --> 00:44:29,160
Speaker 1: Trump not been so furious about like solar and wind,

790
00:44:30,040 --> 00:44:32,600
Speaker 1: you could have you know, like there's a reason that

791
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 1: Texas's grid is more adaptable, and it's because they have

792
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 1: solar and wind. You know.

793
00:44:38,040 --> 00:44:42,319
Speaker 6: The thing about not only is renewable is cost competitive

794
00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 6: with fossil fuels were more than cost competitive. It's also

795
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 6: much faster to develop. You know, you can put install

796
00:44:51,080 --> 00:44:54,920
Speaker 6: rooftop solar on mass with a few months lead time.

797
00:44:55,719 --> 00:44:57,879
Speaker 6: You have to wait years now to get a new

798
00:44:57,880 --> 00:45:01,000
Speaker 6: gas turbine. If we are faced with this big expansion

799
00:45:01,040 --> 00:45:05,440
Speaker 6: of electricity demand coming out of data centers. Really, there's

800
00:45:05,520 --> 00:45:09,960
Speaker 6: no good way to get the stuff in place soon

801
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,719
Speaker 6: enough unless unless you are and you know, and then

802
00:45:12,760 --> 00:45:16,880
Speaker 6: you have Trump actually canceling already partially completed solar and

803
00:45:16,920 --> 00:45:22,040
Speaker 6: wind projects. So so yeah, this is where his anti

804
00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:28,120
Speaker 6: you know, anti woke energy thing collides with his AI buddies.

805
00:45:28,320 --> 00:45:31,239
Speaker 1: Paul, thank you for coming on. Will you please come

806
00:45:31,280 --> 00:45:33,040
Speaker 1: back in January.

807
00:45:32,719 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 6: Happy to do so if America is still there.

808
00:45:37,200 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 7: No moments, Jesse Cannon, Mali Jung Fast We now have

809
00:45:44,120 --> 00:45:48,200
Speaker 7: twenty additional countries added to the travel band because.

810
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:50,840
Speaker 1: Because why not, Because when you're doing a legal stuff,

811
00:45:50,880 --> 00:45:55,360
Speaker 1: you might as well just put everyone in there. Afghanistan, Mayanmar, Chad,

812
00:45:55,400 --> 00:46:03,439
Speaker 1: the Republic of Congo, Haiti, Iran, Libya, Samaya, sud Yemen, Cuba, Laos,

813
00:46:03,640 --> 00:46:09,279
Speaker 1: Sierra Leone, Togo, Venezuela, whatever, Sure, we get you. They

814
00:46:09,280 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 1: don't want to come here anyway. That's it for this

815
00:46:14,080 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 1: episode of Fast Politics. Tune in every Monday, Wednesday, Thursday

816
00:46:20,640 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 1: and Saturday to hear the best minds and politics make

817
00:46:24,719 --> 00:46:28,680
Speaker 1: sense of all this chaos. If you enjoy this podcast,

818
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,480
Speaker 1: please send it to a friend and keep the conversation going.

819
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:34,080
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening,