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Speaker 1: Yeah, welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg I'm

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Speaker 1: very pleased to say to help us navigate these markets,

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Speaker 1: Howard Ward give Belly Funds, c IO of Growth Equities,

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Speaker 1: joins us around a table in New York City. How

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Speaker 1: about it. It's always greater catch up with you. Thank you, Johan,

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Speaker 1: It's great to be here. Talked to me about what

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Speaker 1: on earth is going on. First of all, we're scared

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Speaker 1: of inflation and high bond fields, and now we just

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Speaker 1: shake it off and put a big bit into equity

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Speaker 1: futures in the United States. Yeah, I would, uh, I

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Speaker 1: would be careful because if raids continued, arise to stuck

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Speaker 1: will not ignore that. So we can get a bit

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Speaker 1: of a momentum surge here and as we rebound from

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Speaker 1: the ten percent correction of the last week. But I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure this is a rally that you can truly

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Speaker 1: trust and and the tenure. Now, what's the next the

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Speaker 1: next move three percent um three percent has correlated more

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Speaker 1: with a forward multiple and earnings of fifteen not seventeen,

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Speaker 1: so the stock market will pay attention. The day to

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Speaker 1: day volatility is very hard to get comfortable with given

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Speaker 1: the extreme levels that we're seeing and knowing that there's

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Speaker 1: a big momentum trade that's behind this. A lot of

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Speaker 1: it has happens to be algorithmic and computer generated. So

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Speaker 1: how would let's be clear, we've come from just over

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Speaker 1: two p on the US tenure and early September to

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Speaker 1: almost three on the screen just several months later. Are

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Speaker 1: you saying you would fade this rally in U S sequities? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I think we're You know that we're late cycle. This

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Speaker 1: is the longest bullmarket, secon longest bowl market in history.

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Speaker 1: If it were to continue to advance um to September,

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Speaker 1: it would be the longest. It's the third longest economic expansion,

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Speaker 1: it's almost the second longest. So we are very late cycle.

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Speaker 1: It's the time of the cycle where growth, defensive growth,

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Speaker 1: which outperformed ten out of twelve months last year and

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Speaker 1: for the year overall, defensive growth has done well. It's

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Speaker 1: continuing to outperform. That's late cycle. Stuff. And the next

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Speaker 1: move is you really have to get you know, even

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Speaker 1: more protective of your equity positioning and start favoring lower

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Speaker 1: beta names and stocks with higher yields. I'm not saying

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Speaker 1: we're there yet, but that's the that's the handoff we're

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Speaker 1: gonna make. We're gonna pass the baton from the defensive

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Speaker 1: growth stage of the market to the need for stability

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Speaker 1: and yield as a protective measure as yield becomes a

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Speaker 1: bigger component of equity equity returns, and maybe it takes

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Speaker 1: six nine months for that to play out, but that

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Speaker 1: is the next phase we're going to enter. You know,

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Speaker 1: you just to simplify this and Bible means you can

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Speaker 1: add some nuance to it. But any battle on that

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Speaker 1: passes in markets, any regime change whatsoever, usually is accompanied

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Speaker 1: by elevated volatility. Do we just assume that this is

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Speaker 1: a now a higher volatility story from here, Howard? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I think so. I mean the complacent bull market of

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Speaker 1: two thousand, sixteen seventeen, if you will, mostly seventeen sixteen

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Speaker 1: wasn't that complacent? Was really driven by you know, ongoing

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Speaker 1: extremely low interest rates, a slow and steady economic growth,

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Speaker 1: the slow and steady diet fueled the bull market of

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Speaker 1: the last nine years, and now we've reached a point

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Speaker 1: where maybe slow and steady is not where we're at,

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Speaker 1: given where what rates are doing, given the concerns about inflation,

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Speaker 1: so volatility is back. And also, you know, I would

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Speaker 1: say that the upside return on stocks is limited this year.

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Speaker 1: I think the reason, one of the reasons the market

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Speaker 1: snapped when it did ten days ago was we were

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Speaker 1: getting up against the ceiling for expected returns for the year.

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Speaker 1: And for me, that's on the SMP, which represents seventy

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Speaker 1: seventeen and a half times my projected earnings, not for

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Speaker 1: this year, but for next year, which would be about

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Speaker 1: a hundred and seventy dollars. And so as you get

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Speaker 1: closer and closer to let's call it, let's round it

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Speaker 1: up to three thousand, that's I think is the most

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Speaker 1: you should be expecting from stocks this here, and there's

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Speaker 1: no margin there. If you get any slippage in the

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Speaker 1: multiple or any disappointment in earnings this year or next,

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Speaker 1: your returns will be lower. Did you guys survive Valentine's Day?

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Speaker 1: Do you get through it in one piece? Uh? Yes, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: Valentine's Day was that was you know, I learned every

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Speaker 1: day is Valentine's Day, is right, I think I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: keep you in trouble today. That will move on with

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Speaker 1: Gabelly as we try to talk economics and finance. Uh

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Speaker 1: here and say good morning to all of you. Hour.

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Speaker 1: You and I have talked before about the makeup of revenue.

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Speaker 1: I thought one of the most important single lines last

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Speaker 1: year was Honeywell shifting organic revenue growth up a couple

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Speaker 1: of figures from five six up to seven percent. Whatever

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Speaker 1: the numbers are. But revenue is made up of unit

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Speaker 1: growth and price growth. Tell us what rebellion companies sees

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Speaker 1: about the partial differentials, the dynamics between price lifting and

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Speaker 1: units lifting. Well, Tom, I don't think there's been a

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Speaker 1: lot of pricing power for most companies, uh, and there

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Speaker 1: still isn't. I mean, it's still the world we live

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Speaker 1: in is one of uh you know, uh limited pricing power.

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Speaker 1: So now the question is, are are we at an

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Speaker 1: inflection point where companies are forced to pass along higher

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Speaker 1: prices in order to maintain margin? And I think there's

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Speaker 1: a case to be made that we are entering that

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Speaker 1: phase that we do need to be concerned that, Hey,

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Speaker 1: the good news is the economy is strong. The bad

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Speaker 1: news is the economy is strong. So we had for

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Speaker 1: most the last nine years, bad news was good news

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Speaker 1: and good news was good news. And now we may

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Speaker 1: be getting back to the face where good news is

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Speaker 1: bad news. This is fascinating. Is is the tea leaf,

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Speaker 1: if you will, John Farrell, and of course the collective

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Speaker 1: memory when units actually happened, but there was no pricing power.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, Mr Welch. Hope you're listening from a long time.

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Speaker 1: It's such a big thing for the equity market investor

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Speaker 1: at the moment because a lot of people would say

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Speaker 1: we're accelerating now into supply constraints, capacity constraints in the

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Speaker 1: United States. As you look at things, Howard, who is

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Speaker 1: that a bigger problem for as you break down the

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Speaker 1: equity market, Well, I just think Jonathan at at the

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Speaker 1: from the the macro level, you know, the focus is

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Speaker 1: just going to be on the overall rates of inflation,

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Speaker 1: regardless of where it's coming from. So I think that

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Speaker 1: when rates as rates, let's let's take the let's assume

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Speaker 1: that we're gonna get a little bit more inflation and

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Speaker 1: we're gonna get a little bit more higher interest rates.

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Speaker 1: From a stock investor's perspective of that's going to become

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Speaker 1: a bigger The biggest problem is going to be for

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Speaker 1: industrial companies, materials companies, and energy companies. They're going to

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Speaker 1: take it on the chin first. And I I think

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Speaker 1: it's amazing today when you look at the multiples that

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Speaker 1: people are paying for high quality industrial companies, where you

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Speaker 1: you can find any number of them selling it twenty

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Speaker 1: five times forward earnings and that's not trough earnings. This

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Speaker 1: is extremely rare. In my forty year career, I don't

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Speaker 1: know if I've ever quite seen it like this before,

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Speaker 1: where people are so ready and able to recommend and

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Speaker 1: buy industrial stocks at forty twenty five times forward earnings.

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Speaker 1: When you have to think back and really what you

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Speaker 1: want to do is you want to buy these more

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Speaker 1: industrial stocks at cyclical lows when people hate them, when

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Speaker 1: the earnings are depressed and the peas are high because

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Speaker 1: of that, this is exactly the opposite time where people

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Speaker 1: feel good and so they're recommending these stocks and it

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Speaker 1: might be the wrong thing to do. How would You'll

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Speaker 1: have to forgive me for describing you in a wood,

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Speaker 1: but often having a compassie can with you for the

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Speaker 1: last ten minutes. You sound quite bearish. Would that be

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Speaker 1: excuse me? Would would that be an adequate description of

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Speaker 1: why you stand right now? You do sound quite bad.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying you go out and sell stocks. I'm

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Speaker 1: just saying expectations I think have gotten too high. Uh,

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Speaker 1: they maybe gotten been tempered a little bit in the

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Speaker 1: last week. We got a knowledge problem here, Mr Ward

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Speaker 1: and Mr Farroh doesn't even understand pictures and catchers, let

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Speaker 1: alone how lousy the New York Rangers are this year.

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Speaker 1: John Mr Ward is a die hard New York Rangers

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Speaker 1: hockey fan. I wanted to go to the game at

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Speaker 1: Madison Square Garden. I could not believe how expensive the

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Speaker 1: tickets are to that would be true, It's called a

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Speaker 1: thousand dollar evening. Mr Farrell, who's in the last place

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Speaker 1: in the Premier League in the Premier League right now,

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Speaker 1: I can't off the top of my head. I don't

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Speaker 1: know whoever that team is. That's that's the Ranger Range Rangers.

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Speaker 1: That's the Beck story and Howard bearish and then you

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Speaker 1: bring up is um Paul Paul New York Well the

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Speaker 1: Rangers after they were a cyclical stock, he would buy

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Speaker 1: them now. They can't get any worse, they can only

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Speaker 1: go up. How would will it's they can betty fund

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Speaker 1: see I of growth equities. I got an email this morning. Actually,

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Speaker 1: we had a bunch of emails on this horrific tragedy

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Speaker 1: in Florida. A couple of people said, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: horrific to see and we're seeing it and hearing it,

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Speaker 1: reading it everywhere, and thank you for trying to stay

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Speaker 1: on Bloomberg surveilance themes, and frankly other people saying, you

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Speaker 1: know you've got a touch on it. We have a

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Speaker 1: gentleman now where we can do that, we can do

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Speaker 1: it because well he's heard the sound of gunfire. Terry

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Speaker 1: Haynes is with us withever Core I s I and

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Speaker 1: is some of you know. Mr Haynes was very nearby

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Speaker 1: in the neighborhood today where a congressman was shot in

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Speaker 1: Washington not too long ago. And it's wonderful that Mr. S.

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Speaker 1: Glees is doing better as well. Mr Haynes joins us

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Speaker 1: here and to politicize this, but do it in a

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Speaker 1: way that I think is balanced. Terry Haynes, I think

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Speaker 1: our global audience and our national audience would like your

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Speaker 1: observation with your decades of work, and now the n

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Speaker 1: r A fits into the lobbying fabric of Washington. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to do pro NIRA, I don't want to

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Speaker 1: do anti n RA. Just how do they fit in?

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Speaker 1: Are they at the Willard Hotel smoking cigars? Are they

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Speaker 1: up on K Street? How does the n r A

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Speaker 1: fit in to the new Washington where we have these

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Speaker 1: tragedies after tragedies. Well, then good morning Tom and John.

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Speaker 1: The it fits in. You know there there are you've

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Speaker 1: heard me observed before. I think that you can always

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Speaker 1: look at uh what I would prefer to call purists

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Speaker 1: on either side of an issue. And uh and you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not going to be pro anti n r A.

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Speaker 1: But but the but the n r A is is

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Speaker 1: a purist in its interpretation of the Second Amendment and

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Speaker 1: what gun rights mean and all the rest. And there

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Speaker 1: are purists on the other side, and the purists on

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Speaker 1: the other side suggests that the Second Amendment really doesn't

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Speaker 1: it really doesn't mean anything, and that guns ought to

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Speaker 1: be regulated in banned wherever possible. Uh So, yeah, so

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Speaker 1: it's there's there's quite a quite a profound, uh difference

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Speaker 1: of opinion on the polls. And in the middle, of course,

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Speaker 1: is where you end up dealing with the gritty issues

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Speaker 1: of registration and who can buy watch and all the rest.

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Speaker 1: Some of them, some of us terry. Literally yesterday afternoon,

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Speaker 1: we're whispering across living rooms trying to protect children from

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Speaker 1: this news. And within yeah, yeah, I do that every day.

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Speaker 1: You do that every day. And within this is within

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Speaker 1: one hour, within forty minutes, there was the obligatory news

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Speaker 1: zite guys talking about these congress people getting money, you know,

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Speaker 1: the usual stuff we see every time this endless tragedy occurs.

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Speaker 1: Does the naharay throw money at politicians? Do the politicians

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Speaker 1: ask for it? How does that happen? How does the

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Speaker 1: money move from the n r A to the political establishment. Well,

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Speaker 1: it's uh, it's it's done, you know, both in the

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Speaker 1: n r A and on the other side. It's it's

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Speaker 1: done in the conventional way. It's done through fundraising, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: dedicated fundraisers all the rest. Uh. And there's you know,

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Speaker 1: and I think one thing that is not so well

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Speaker 1: understood about why generally is that the uh, there's an

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Speaker 1: there's an impression that money moves in there for opinions change.

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Speaker 1: And uh, former Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott always like

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Speaker 1: to say that, look, you know, people are giving us

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Speaker 1: people are giving us money to change our minds. People

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Speaker 1: are giving us money because uh they agree with our positions. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, and only so so in many cases, whether

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Speaker 1: you're on one pole of this artiment or the other. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you're you know, you're already there before the money is,

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Speaker 1: before money comes comes to you from from people with

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Speaker 1: those points of view. One final question on this before

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Speaker 1: we move on, Terry Haynes, with this withever core, I

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Speaker 1: s I and I go back to the horrific moments

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Speaker 1: in Arlington with our congressional delegation at that baseball field.

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Speaker 1: And that's the idea of when there's a policy shift.

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Speaker 1: And again, Terry, you and I agree to stay out

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Speaker 1: of the debate. But do you detect a policy shift

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Speaker 1: of any order after this horrific killings in Florida? I

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Speaker 1: don't yet, and that's in part because because the Senate

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Speaker 1: has been so focused on trying to get something going on,

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Speaker 1: something going on dreamers and been the border security this week.

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Speaker 1: But I think it's possible. You know there there are

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Speaker 1: a lot of people that have been trying to bridge

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Speaker 1: that gap for some years. And in the Senate, I

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Speaker 1: would point to a a bipartisan uh group, uh was

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Speaker 1: its core Republican Senator Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Democratic Senator

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Speaker 1: Joe Mansion of West Virginia, who ever since Sandy Hook

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Speaker 1: have been trying to move move some things on registration

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Speaker 1: and and whatnot. And it may well be that that

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Speaker 1: that's something callalesces around them. I think there's going to

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Speaker 1: be a desire to want to do it. And of course, uh,

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Speaker 1: of course many of these folks have an election year.

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Speaker 1: Hearing them in the face and not always concentrates the

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Speaker 1: mind as well, it does concentrate the mining. Terry Aynes,

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Speaker 1: we greatly appreciate your comments after this, uh, these events,

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Speaker 1: this tragedies is terror in Florida. Mr Haynes, I believe

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Speaker 1: we have fiscal affairs, a tax cut, a new budget,

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Speaker 1: and then a did proposed, etcetera. Do you have any

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Speaker 1: idea where we are now? Are you awaiting fiscal analysis

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Speaker 1: like John Farrell and I are awaiting it? No, you knows,

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Speaker 1: as you well know, we produced an awful lot of it.

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Speaker 1: So well, what have you produced? Where's the decimal point

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Speaker 1: on one trillion? Uh? Well, our our view has been

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Speaker 1: that fundamentally, I mean, I think the thing that matters

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Speaker 1: here the most is the Yeah, there will be a slight,

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Speaker 1: uh definite increase, but you know you're you're gonna have

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Speaker 1: between the task cuts and uh and this action should

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Speaker 1: it should it be uh put into effect by a

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Speaker 1: full year spending bill, which we think is very likely. Uh.

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Speaker 1: You know you're gonna end up with seventy basis points

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Speaker 1: of growth. Uh. So you know, and uh, we're to

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Speaker 1: the point where Ed Hyman told our clients last week

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Speaker 1: that you know, you've got an economy that's already strong

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Speaker 1: and accelerating. Uh. Inflation is moving up slightly but still moderate.

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Speaker 1: And uh and he's considering lifting his US real GDP

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Speaker 1: forecast from plus three to plus three point five. This

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Speaker 1: is important, John, And that I met with Mr Hyman

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Speaker 1: at length and that Christmas special I think it ran

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Speaker 1: over New Year's even him was at three percent at

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Speaker 1: that time. He has nailed trying to get out front

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Speaker 1: of this politics. So Harry, let's say we get to

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Speaker 1: three pc ultimately, which fun to understand whether you can

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Speaker 1: grow the deficit away. Can you grow the deficit away? Um,

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Speaker 1: you can. You can limit it to you can limit

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Speaker 1: it to some extent. You're not going to eliminate it, though,

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Speaker 1: I think I think even the Trump budgets frankly acknowledges that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you've got to It's always been a point

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Speaker 1: of Republican orthodoxy that budgets are submitted, and budgets are

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Speaker 1: are political documents inherently, but that the budget would balance

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Speaker 1: at the end. There's ten years as a result of

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Speaker 1: whatever policies, and uh, and that's not the claim. We've

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Speaker 1: never we never thought that Trump was a conventional Republican.

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Speaker 1: So he has proved not to be. But but you

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Speaker 1: know that for the for the White House to take

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Speaker 1: that sort of step, I thought it was significant. We've

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Speaker 1: had way too much opened on this um situation with

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Speaker 1: a deficit. A deficit has become incredibly politicized terry as

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Speaker 1: you see things just looking at the trajectory of this deficit.

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Speaker 1: Is it a deficit, a fiscal situation, a scenario in

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Speaker 1: the United States that is becoming out of control? Or

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Speaker 1: is it still in control? Um, well, we thought it

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Speaker 1: in control. I mean, what's the what's the what what's

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Speaker 1: disturbed a lot of people is that the there has

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Speaker 1: been an assumption for for years. I would I would

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Speaker 1: challenge this to some extent, but there's been an assumption

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Speaker 1: for years that Republicans of the Party of eliminating deficits

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Speaker 1: and you know, bringing government spending and control and all

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Speaker 1: the rest. And uh. You know, now there's perceived to

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Speaker 1: be some kind of a blow through on the deficit.

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Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, personally, I don't quite see it

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Speaker 1: that way, because a little context is important. What you

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Speaker 1: need to remember is that in late the last time

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Speaker 1: we had one of these two year budget deals, uh,

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Speaker 1: the government spending went up by almost a hundred billion

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Speaker 1: dollars over two years. Uh. Firstly, uh, so you know

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Speaker 1: there there have been increases ever since. And you know,

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Speaker 1: when you get down to brass tax on this one,

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Speaker 1: you take disaster relief out of this. Essentially it's a

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Speaker 1: two billion dollar increase over two years, uh, divided between

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Speaker 1: defense and domestic spending. Uh. That's a lot of things,

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Speaker 1: but it's not quite the it's not quite the terrible

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Speaker 1: budget busting that that I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: claim it is. Terry Hines, thank you, so much with

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Speaker 1: every core I s I the perspective there on better

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Speaker 1: economic growth from Mr Hyman, and of course gentle comments

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Speaker 1: on the tragedy and the terror in a Florida. This

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Speaker 1: is the interview of the day for Global Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: Tobias Levkovich of City Group. Tobias, what is your proprietary

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Speaker 1: surprise index? Say, now, are we surprised the crisis is over?

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Speaker 1: Are we surprised we're buying shares today? So our panicky

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Speaker 1: for a model actually um, which the primary sentiment model

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Speaker 1: had gone into eu foory Terrytory back call it around

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Speaker 1: Christmas time and it stayed up there. Interestingly last Friday

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Speaker 1: it had did not drop out of before an others

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Speaker 1: investors still want to buy the tip there. There's not

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Speaker 1: that much fear in the market, even with the wild

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Speaker 1: generations that we sept for the past couple of weeks.

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Speaker 1: Not enough fear in the market. Why did we go

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Speaker 1: to fifty on the vix then stipulation? You know, I

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Speaker 1: don't want to get you in trouble with your general counsel,

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Speaker 1: but come on, fifty we went. We went from you know,

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Speaker 1: under ten um and spiked. I will tell you that

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Speaker 1: if we looked at we were some we track also

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Speaker 1: top fifty names of market cap in the SMP five hundred,

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Speaker 1: which count for about half the value the sm P.

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Speaker 1: We watched what we call interest dock correlation, how they've

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Speaker 1: traded relative to one another of the past twenty days UM,

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Speaker 1: and that had dropped down to two per cent, and

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Speaker 1: always they were thoroughly uncorrelated. Nobody was worried about macro

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Speaker 1: fears at all back in call it November December, and

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Speaker 1: now it's up over fifty you know, in in in

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Speaker 1: a matter of a week or two. So there was

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Speaker 1: this kind of level of complacency short you know, short

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Speaker 1: term we spiked and that's why I say the vultility

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Speaker 1: picked up UM part of partially because of the incredible

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Speaker 1: swings we saw of you know, a thousand points on

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Speaker 1: the dow UM. But have really people changed their general

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Speaker 1: outlook the ideas of robust and synchronized lobal recovery and

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Speaker 1: where still okay, I want to bar bill an important

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Speaker 1: question to retail with the urge to go to cash,

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Speaker 1: how do you respond cash doesn't really earn you a

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Speaker 1: whole lot today? Um, you know, if you're worried about inflation,

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Speaker 1: which certainly pp I gave another reason theoretically today to

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Speaker 1: worry about. You know, if you look at the history,

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Speaker 1: bonds are a tough place to be. Cash can kind

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Speaker 1: of hold you even, but equities can do well because

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Speaker 1: companies can raise prices. So you need to think about

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Speaker 1: maybe more real assets versus financial assets, and that in

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Speaker 1: terms of how your position your portfolios, you might want

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Speaker 1: to be more materials and energy and some value areas

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Speaker 1: versus the growthier names that have been you know, benefiting

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Speaker 1: if you like, from very low rates in terms of

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Speaker 1: the compounding of the present value calculation. The same question

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Speaker 1: the institutional person in it, they're managing to a benchmark.

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Speaker 1: They're behind there, behind a little, they're behind a lot.

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Speaker 1: It's February that got to catch up. How do you

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Speaker 1: catch up? On a sector transition basis, where do you

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Speaker 1: come out of? Where do you move to? So our senses,

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Speaker 1: you've got to move away from the growthy areas technology,

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Speaker 1: healthcare and move towards the value areas, including financials. And

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Speaker 1: what's a multiple differential there between? Are we going from

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Speaker 1: down to a sixteen? You might be going in from

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Speaker 1: instances from a sixty multiple to a thirty from a

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Speaker 1: six zero two or three zero at depending on certain

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Speaker 1: companies where you have you know, very very hot growth prospects,

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Speaker 1: think of cybersecurity, cloud stuff like that. And then you

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Speaker 1: have companies that are industrial that might be trading at

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Speaker 1: twenty five times earnings. They've moved up in anticipation of

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Speaker 1: cyclical recovery. But earnings will probably be pretty good for

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Speaker 1: those companies as the economy gathers some steam. First time

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Speaker 1: I've asked this question this year. We can do that

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Speaker 1: every day is Valentine's Day, including February, and that is

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Speaker 1: selling May and go away. Let's get ahead start on

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Speaker 1: that right now. After the drama of January and February.

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Speaker 1: How do we come up to the next earning season?

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Speaker 1: The next I think the next several learning season will

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Speaker 1: be pretty good because you've got this economic backdrop. One

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Speaker 1: of the things we watched and we think go really

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Speaker 1: lost last week was the Senior Loan Officer survey data

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Speaker 1: from the Reserve Board. Is everybody's focusing in on the

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Speaker 1: volatility of the markets. They didn't really pick on with

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Speaker 1: the fundamentals. And when we look at specifically the commercial

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Speaker 1: industrial loan lending standards, they actually eased further. So despite

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Speaker 1: the fact we've had fed right hikes, etcetera, the financing

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Speaker 1: ability for businesses is even more attractive. That's usually a

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Speaker 1: good nine monthly indicator for industrial production, for GDP, for manufacturing,

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Speaker 1: for castalization, for employment margins. So profits should be good

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Speaker 1: and be supportive of markets. So that's chapter three a

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Speaker 1: corporate finance. Unfortunately, Chapter four is the demand side of

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Speaker 1: that equation. Is the demand there for the better supply

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Speaker 1: of CNI loans. So this is kind of the very

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Speaker 1: interesting debate, and it's one of the reasons we think

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Speaker 1: banks are still attractive is that most investors believe that

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Speaker 1: we've gone to kind of the shadow banking system. We

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Speaker 1: don't need the traditional branks. I loved with Axel Weber,

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Speaker 1: he's at a small Swiss bank called UBS said the

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Speaker 1: other day the market based finance system. I love that,

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Speaker 1: and I don't deny that people using capital markets and

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Speaker 1: other alternatives in on the online spectrum. But if you

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Speaker 1: want to do very big loans m and a related,

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Speaker 1: you know, billion dollar type projects. If you want to

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Speaker 1: look at capital investment in minds in new semi conductor plants, etcetera,

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Speaker 1: you're talking again ten twenty billion dollar type investments. You

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Speaker 1: can't go to those places right away. You need the syndicates,

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Speaker 1: and there's about a six quarter lab and this is

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Speaker 1: pretty important. Between the changes in the CNI is landing

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Speaker 1: standards and changes in actual CNI loans, you are at

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Speaker 1: the inflection point. Now. What we saw late last year

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Speaker 1: was that, if you want to call it, residual of

429
00:24:22,280 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 1: a very messy credit market in the first and second

430
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,720
Speaker 1: quarter of two thou six. And now you're looking at

431
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,680
Speaker 1: a very different game. So I think that's gonna be

432
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,440
Speaker 1: the surprise at CNI landing really picks up. Do rising

433
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,560
Speaker 1: rates change the left of it view? Rising rates are

434
00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:39,040
Speaker 1: part of the left of it view, so they don't

435
00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 1: change our view. One of the things again that people

436
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 1: I believe are kind of missing are too busy focusing

437
00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:47,440
Speaker 1: on incorrectly um is when they look at the inflation data.

438
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,879
Speaker 1: They look at, for example, commodity prices moving up. I

439
00:24:49,920 --> 00:24:52,080
Speaker 1: think it's legitimate. I think you're it's fair to look

440
00:24:52,080 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 1: at at currency issues. What they're not looking at is

441
00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: the U six U three unemployment gap. Okay, so you

442
00:24:58,880 --> 00:25:00,720
Speaker 1: three being the traditional number, I always see the four

443
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 1: point when U six includes marginal until slack and all that.

444
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:06,680
Speaker 1: So when we look at this over the last fifteen years,

445
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: so we've got quote unquote the Amazon effect in there,

446
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:11,680
Speaker 1: what we see is exactly where we should be on

447
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,720
Speaker 1: on wage rights. You know, there's wage increases are exactly

448
00:25:14,720 --> 00:25:16,680
Speaker 1: where they should be based on that gap. But that

449
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:19,480
Speaker 1: gap is going to shrink meaningfully this year, and wage

450
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 1: pressures are going to grow further. And I saw a

451
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,680
Speaker 1: great chart I'll give zero edge credit. I can't remember where,

452
00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 1: but I saw a great chart exactly to your point

453
00:25:26,640 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: that that wage growth is really where it should be.

454
00:25:31,080 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 1: It's quadratic or is it a jump condition? When you

455
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 1: when you get finally wage growth, does it happen in

456
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: sixty days or no, it takes it will take six

457
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 1: nine months. But I think you're going to see something

458
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: from where we were kind of a two and a

459
00:25:43,320 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 1: half percent rate of growth to probably closer three and

460
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 1: a half or higher. And the bond market has to

461
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,959
Speaker 1: adjust to that as well, and corporates will try to

462
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 1: raise prices where they can. Of corporate cost is labor,

463
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:56,280
Speaker 1: so they've got to figure out a way to increase

464
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 1: their their margins. They don't want to eat that Tobias

465
00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,680
Speaker 1: got bad news. We got a huge audience in Montreal.

466
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:05,520
Speaker 1: I learned this years ago and fill from Montreal emails.

467
00:26:05,520 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 1: In it says, please ask to Bias about the national heritage,

468
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: that is the Montreal Canadians when they when they lose,

469
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 1: all of Canada loses. It's worse than the maple leafs. Actually,

470
00:26:17,640 --> 00:26:21,639
Speaker 1: twenty nine in offense twenty folks is only like twenty

471
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 1: nine teams twenty nine in office twenty four in defense.

472
00:26:26,080 --> 00:26:29,800
Speaker 1: The penalty kill is twenty three. I mean, this is

473
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:34,000
Speaker 1: a Canadian disgrace, isn't it. It's the worst record I

474
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,560
Speaker 1: think since the Es. It is depressing. Is all hell

475
00:26:36,680 --> 00:26:38,879
Speaker 1: for US Canadians fans who grew up with you know,

476
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:42,359
Speaker 1: the grates of Ghila Fleur and Yvon Cornway and Kendre Ryden.

477
00:26:42,640 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 1: And I love Carrie Price, but Mr brigem Man has

478
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:46,760
Speaker 1: gotta put some better in front of them. I mean,

479
00:26:46,800 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: ask you the same question I asked Governor Carney by

480
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:52,880
Speaker 1: the Espresso Cordon Davos. Does Governor Carney have to make

481
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 1: an intervention, leave the Bank of England and attend to

482
00:26:57,480 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 1: the national heritage of the Montreal Canadian. I think he does,

483
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:02,320
Speaker 1: and if he wants to call me up to join him,

484
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 1: I'm right there. My wife might not like moving to Montreal,

485
00:27:04,880 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: but I would enjoy it if it was for the Canadians.

486
00:27:07,119 --> 00:27:11,439
Speaker 1: Very good. Keep in mind one other issue, it's not

487
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 1: just the Canadians. Five of the six Canadian teams aren't

488
00:27:13,960 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 1: in the payoff RICE right now, Ottawa enjoying your last

489
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,800
Speaker 1: place with five of six teams are not in the

490
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,480
Speaker 1: playoff rice right in the national outrage, I think it's

491
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 1: a surveillance bre exclusive folks, Carnie and left Kevich starting

492
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: with the Montreal Canadians, to bail out Canada and their hockey.

493
00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,200
Speaker 1: We're gonna bail out This discussion to Buias, Leftovich will

494
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 1: continue with us. Pim Fox has been taking notes and

495
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 1: I know he's got a lot of sector in company

496
00:27:39,880 --> 00:27:58,080
Speaker 1: issues as well that Mr Lefcovin. We finished strong on

497
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:04,400
Speaker 1: international relations with a Trump administration, with Secretary Tillerson, galivanning

498
00:28:04,480 --> 00:28:07,480
Speaker 1: or traveling through the Middle East from this country to

499
00:28:07,560 --> 00:28:10,000
Speaker 1: that country, and we do it well with the author

500
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 1: of Falls Dawn. He's with the Consul on Foreign Relations,

501
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:17,359
Speaker 1: Stephen uh Cook. Stephen Turkey seems to be front and

502
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:21,919
Speaker 1: center right now. Our relationships with Turkey. Let's begin with

503
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:26,520
Speaker 1: domestic Turkey. Would Mustapha Kamal out of Turk, the out

504
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:30,159
Speaker 1: of Turk of the early twentieth century, would he know

505
00:28:30,880 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: his Turkey? He would not know his Turkey. UM. The

506
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 1: Justice and Development Party which has been in power since

507
00:28:38,840 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 1: two thousand two, and its leader, Richard pipe aired One,

508
00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:45,200
Speaker 1: who is now the President of Turkey, have done much

509
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:51,040
Speaker 1: to unwind UM out of Turkey vision. UM. It's not

510
00:28:51,120 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 1: to say that was right about everything. He was certainly

511
00:28:54,160 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 1: no democrat. UM. But there is a heavier emphasis on

512
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: religious values in in because public life, UH, something that

513
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:05,440
Speaker 1: that editor certainly wanted to stamp out. So within the

514
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:09,360
Speaker 1: Secretary of State and his team, and as you mentioned

515
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 1: to me earlier this morning, he travels small. They have

516
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 1: to great Turkey in the coming hours and days. How

517
00:29:16,000 --> 00:29:20,520
Speaker 1: will they be received by Turkey? Uh? Probably the best

518
00:29:20,560 --> 00:29:24,960
Speaker 1: way to describe it is extremely cold. Um. There is

519
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:30,959
Speaker 1: a tremendous amount of mistrust between Washington and Ankara now UM,

520
00:29:31,040 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: much of its stemming from UH. The United States is

521
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: working relationship with a Syrian Kurdish fighting force that has

522
00:29:41,160 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 1: been instrumental in killing a lot of ISIS guides and

523
00:29:45,640 --> 00:29:51,080
Speaker 1: retaking territory from the Islamic State, but the same group

524
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:55,840
Speaker 1: the Turks regard to be a terrorist organization UH and

525
00:29:56,240 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: UH from the Turkish perspective, the United States is willfully

526
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: under reminding Turkey security by arming dys Syrian Kurdish fighting force.

527
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 1: Mr Cook, can you explain the relationship that Turkey currently

528
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:13,600
Speaker 1: has with Russia and what that would mean for future

529
00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 1: investments in Turkey, specifically in the energy industry. Well, Turkey

530
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: and Russia have grown closer over the course of the

531
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 1: last few years. One of the reasons is because the

532
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 1: United States has essentially written itself out of the Syrian conflict,

533
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: so that when President Arduan needed some power to help

534
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: secure Turkey's interests in Syria, there was really only one

535
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:41,000
Speaker 1: place for him to go, and that was Moscow. Um.

536
00:30:41,040 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: There's also a small, relatively small, but influential group in

537
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 1: Ankara that would like to see the flowering of relations

538
00:30:48,440 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 1: between UH, Turkey and Russia based on geography, based on

539
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:56,680
Speaker 1: UH kind of historic double standards with which Turks perceived

540
00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,080
Speaker 1: the West dealing with Turkey. So UM, there's going to

541
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: be and already has been an increase of investment in

542
00:31:04,240 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: trade across those borders. Uh, and energy is is one

543
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:12,840
Speaker 1: of those one of those things. Well in that context, right,

544
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 1: I mean, you know that the Turkish government has already

545
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:18,000
Speaker 1: announced the purchase of Russian S four hundred surface to

546
00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:22,280
Speaker 1: air missile systems, and yet Turkey is a stalwart member

547
00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:26,600
Speaker 1: of NATO. UM In fact, they've just announced that they're

548
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: going to purchase the second battery of the S four hundred.

549
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 1: That's the news this morning from from Ankara. And I

550
00:31:33,200 --> 00:31:36,720
Speaker 1: would I think we should think about the use of

551
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 1: the term stalwart when we think about Turkey in in NATO.

552
00:31:41,080 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 1: It's a difficult relationship between Turkey and its Western partners.

553
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,760
Speaker 1: They're not too many, uh in Turkey who believe that

554
00:31:49,280 --> 00:31:54,560
Speaker 1: Belgian soldiers will die for Turkish security. And given the

555
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:57,200
Speaker 1: fact that the United States is quite obviously the dominant

556
00:31:57,200 --> 00:32:00,880
Speaker 1: power in NATO and the United States is working with

557
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:05,280
Speaker 1: a group that the Turks considered to be a terrorist organization,

558
00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:09,760
Speaker 1: the relationship between Turkey and NATO is quite tense. And

559
00:32:09,760 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 1: and uh and thought, I don't expect that the Turks

560
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 1: thill will remove themselves from NATO in the same way

561
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: that other countries have in the past. If we have

562
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,560
Speaker 1: so many guests and they, you know, Stephen Cook, they

563
00:32:20,560 --> 00:32:23,720
Speaker 1: have a political bias. I guess we all do. But

564
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: there's an attitude that the Trump administration and their foreign policy.

565
00:32:28,480 --> 00:32:30,800
Speaker 1: The way we project when we show the flag is

566
00:32:30,800 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: we've got to get our act together. How urgent is

567
00:32:33,680 --> 00:32:37,960
Speaker 1: it to Stephen Cook that the Secretary in his travels

568
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:43,480
Speaker 1: quote unquote get his act together? Well, it's I think

569
00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:47,840
Speaker 1: it is what the Secretary of State is encountering on

570
00:32:47,840 --> 00:32:51,920
Speaker 1: this trip. Uh. And it's been difficulty in almost every

571
00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 1: place he's gone, except perhaps for Egypt. UM. I think

572
00:32:57,000 --> 00:33:00,240
Speaker 1: what it reflects is a real change in the world,

573
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:03,600
Speaker 1: and particularly in the Middle East, where countries used to

574
00:33:03,600 --> 00:33:06,880
Speaker 1: wait for American permission to do things, used to consult

575
00:33:06,920 --> 00:33:11,480
Speaker 1: with the United States before undertaking action. And um, after

576
00:33:11,720 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 1: a very long and difficult almost two decades in the

577
00:33:14,680 --> 00:33:17,880
Speaker 1: Middle East, UM, the United States, from their perspective, seems

578
00:33:17,960 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 1: spent and distracted and distracted by its own politics. And

579
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,520
Speaker 1: so countries in the region are taking matters into their

580
00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:28,360
Speaker 1: own hands and pursuing their interests, regardless of of American

581
00:33:28,440 --> 00:33:30,920
Speaker 1: views on what they're doing. And Turkey is actually a

582
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: perfect example, a perfect example of that by exploring its

583
00:33:35,200 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: relations with with Russia, UM by h moving militarily into Syria,

584
00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 1: even though that undermines what the United States is trying

585
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: to do in in Syria all at the same time. So, um,

586
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:50,440
Speaker 1: it's a very different world out there that Secretary Tillerson

587
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: is confronting. Well, Secretary Tillerson is certainly no stranger to

588
00:33:55,760 --> 00:34:01,600
Speaker 1: oil politics, and Turkey is the largest UH, I should say,

589
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:06,920
Speaker 1: has made the largest pledge to help financially rebuild Iraq.

590
00:34:07,360 --> 00:34:10,400
Speaker 1: The United States is really nowhere in this one billion

591
00:34:10,440 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 1: dollar attempt to rebuild Iraq. What would you say if

592
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,600
Speaker 1: things continue the way they go now, can you fast

593
00:34:17,640 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 1: forward for US maybe four or five years, what does

594
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:24,040
Speaker 1: Iraq look like and what happens to its oil and

595
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:31,000
Speaker 1: energy reserves? Well, I'm generally pessimistic about Iraq um, regardless

596
00:34:31,040 --> 00:34:34,160
Speaker 1: of how much money has been raised. At this reconstruction

597
00:34:34,200 --> 00:34:37,359
Speaker 1: conference that was convened in in to eight, there was

598
00:34:37,400 --> 00:34:39,600
Speaker 1: actually a kind of a bidding war going on between

599
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 1: Turkey and the United Arab Emirates over who is going

600
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:46,360
Speaker 1: to who is going to UH do more in Iraq.

601
00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:48,640
Speaker 1: But I think it's less about the money, less about

602
00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 1: the investments that that countries are are willing to make

603
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 1: it more about the politics in Iraq, and until Iraq

604
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:58,080
Speaker 1: gets those politics right, and until it resolves this kind

605
00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:01,040
Speaker 1: of system of spoils that the United States in an

606
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:07,799
Speaker 1: unintended way created has crippled and hobbled and encouraged corruption

607
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 1: in Iraq. Uh. It really doesn't matter how much money

608
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:13,040
Speaker 1: is invested, a lot of it is going to go

609
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 1: to waste um because of this this rather surreal system

610
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,359
Speaker 1: of spoils that's been set up in a rock. If

611
00:35:20,360 --> 00:35:23,919
Speaker 1: you wrote an epilogue now to your False Dawn, where

612
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:28,279
Speaker 1: would you tilt it within your analysis of the Middle East? Well,

613
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: first I said I was right. Now I think what

614
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 1: I would say is that we are looking at a

615
00:35:35,440 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 1: long term, uh, long term instability in the region based

616
00:35:42,520 --> 00:35:46,719
Speaker 1: on kind of deeper historical and sociological factors that are

617
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:50,480
Speaker 1: really beyond um, you know, the traditional tools of American

618
00:35:50,520 --> 00:35:54,439
Speaker 1: diplomacy or right ur diplomacy. I mean, what I found

619
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: this so telling. I honestly, folks can't remember the blur

620
00:35:57,200 --> 00:36:01,359
Speaker 1: of travel where they just institute a tourists flights. I'm

621
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 1: going to say from London British Air down to Tunisia

622
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: and it was just one of those little glimmers of

623
00:36:08,600 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: recovery of in this case tourism and Tunisia, which is

624
00:36:12,520 --> 00:36:15,720
Speaker 1: a beautiful country which has been in some ways shattered.

625
00:36:15,760 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 1: Are we are we making henway against the anger and

626
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 1: the terror of the Arab spring and its fall up? Well,

627
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: I think that you know, the return of tourists to

628
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: Tunisia is quite obviously a very very good thing for Tunisian.

629
00:36:31,600 --> 00:36:35,680
Speaker 1: It is a beautiful country. UH, and Tunisians really have

630
00:36:35,840 --> 00:36:39,200
Speaker 1: made more progress than than others in the region. But

631
00:36:39,360 --> 00:36:44,720
Speaker 1: until UH, the the our world at large resolves issues

632
00:36:44,800 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 1: related to the kind of internal contradictions about the way

633
00:36:47,760 --> 00:36:50,960
Speaker 1: in which their societies are ruled, way in which their

634
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:57,360
Speaker 1: economies are set up, about their very identities of these countries, um,

635
00:36:57,880 --> 00:37:01,480
Speaker 1: Tunisia and other countries will remain quite fragile and racked

636
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:05,719
Speaker 1: with violence and instability. Stephen Cook, thank you so much,

637
00:37:05,800 --> 00:37:08,399
Speaker 1: very generous of you to be with Bloomberg Surveillance today

638
00:37:08,440 --> 00:37:11,600
Speaker 1: he is with the Council on Foreign Relations. Can't say

639
00:37:11,680 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 1: enough about his writings. Wis book closed on for a

640
00:37:15,440 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 1: perspective away from the politics and the tinged debate on

641
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 1: the Middle East. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg surveillance podcast.

642
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:35,560
Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio