1
00:00:03,120 --> 00:00:09,920
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. Over the weekend, Iran

2
00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,800
Speaker 1: deployed hundreds of drones and missiles in an attack on Israel.

3
00:00:14,160 --> 00:00:17,479
Speaker 2: World leaders have urged restraints after Iran, of course, fired

4
00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:21,320
Speaker 2: more than three hundred drones and missiles at Israel on

5
00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:22,400
Speaker 2: Saturday evening.

6
00:00:22,720 --> 00:00:26,040
Speaker 1: It was an unprecedented escalation in a long running conflict

7
00:00:26,120 --> 00:00:29,440
Speaker 1: between the two nations, which until recently had played out

8
00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:33,880
Speaker 1: mostly indirectly. That changed after April first, when a strike

9
00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:38,000
Speaker 1: on an Iranian embassy compound in Syria killed several Iranian officers.

10
00:00:38,159 --> 00:00:40,680
Speaker 1: Iran has been saying for days that it has to

11
00:00:40,720 --> 00:00:44,200
Speaker 1: retaliate for this attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria.

12
00:00:44,320 --> 00:00:47,000
Speaker 2: It viewed that attack as really an assault on its

13
00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:47,600
Speaker 2: own soil.

14
00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:50,880
Speaker 1: Iran blamed Israel for that strike and vowed to retaliate,

15
00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:54,160
Speaker 1: though Israel has not publicly claimed responsibility for the attack.

16
00:00:54,800 --> 00:00:58,160
Speaker 1: Late Saturday night, Israel time, Iran delivered on its threat

17
00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,880
Speaker 1: with a series of carefully orchestrated moves.

18
00:01:01,520 --> 00:01:05,360
Speaker 2: The risk of a genuine war in the Middle East

19
00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,280
Speaker 2: went up substantially on Saturday night.

20
00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,240
Speaker 1: That's our Israel Bureau Chief Ethan Brahner.

21
00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:17,680
Speaker 2: For the first time. Ever, Iran shot directly at Israel

22
00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:23,640
Speaker 2: from its soil using sophisticated ballistic missiles, and Israel has

23
00:01:23,720 --> 00:01:26,720
Speaker 2: not yet responded. When and if it does, that could

24
00:01:26,840 --> 00:01:30,120
Speaker 2: add risk to oil, the risk to stability, the risk

25
00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:32,440
Speaker 2: to hundreds and millions of people who live in the

26
00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:34,200
Speaker 2: region is not trivial.

27
00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:40,240
Speaker 1: Allies to Israel, including the US, the UK, and France,

28
00:01:40,400 --> 00:01:43,399
Speaker 1: stepped in to help minimize the damage the attack could cause,

29
00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:46,640
Speaker 1: and now they're urging Israel not to respond in a

30
00:01:46,640 --> 00:01:50,520
Speaker 1: way that would throw the region deeper into conflict. Today,

31
00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:53,400
Speaker 1: on the big take Iran's attack on Israel and what

32
00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:55,880
Speaker 1: it means for the region and the rest of the world,

33
00:01:56,320 --> 00:02:03,560
Speaker 1: I'm David Burrett. To understand exactly what happened this week,

34
00:02:03,720 --> 00:02:06,920
Speaker 1: I spoke with Ethan Bronner. He's our Israel bureau chief

35
00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,320
Speaker 1: based in Tel Aviv. We taped this conversation at seven

36
00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:12,920
Speaker 1: am in New York, which was two pm in Israel.

37
00:02:13,440 --> 00:02:17,840
Speaker 1: I started by asking Ethan to describe how the attacks unfolded.

38
00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:21,240
Speaker 2: Saturday evening, quite late our time, maybe around eleven o'clock.

39
00:02:21,440 --> 00:02:24,880
Speaker 2: It became clear that a bunch of drones had left

40
00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:29,239
Speaker 2: the dry plains of Iran to arrive at Israel probably

41
00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,760
Speaker 2: six eight hours later. They were saying, so for a while,

42
00:02:32,800 --> 00:02:36,840
Speaker 2: we were waiting, and then around two or three suddenly

43
00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,000
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of ballistic missiles as well as cruise

44
00:02:40,040 --> 00:02:43,639
Speaker 2: missiles began to work their way to Israel, and basically

45
00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:49,480
Speaker 2: three hundred and fifty projectiles of various kinds were sent

46
00:02:49,639 --> 00:02:54,680
Speaker 2: directly from Iranian soil onto Israeli soil, an unprecedented attack

47
00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,840
Speaker 2: by Iran from its own soil onto Israel and the

48
00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,560
Speaker 2: first time in four decades, and they were all shot down.

49
00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,880
Speaker 2: They were shot down with their combination of activity by Israel,

50
00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,840
Speaker 2: the UK, the US, and France and others participated and

51
00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:13,400
Speaker 2: played a role in helping them stop. In the end,

52
00:03:13,480 --> 00:03:16,600
Speaker 2: I think about six or eight ballistic missiles did get

53
00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:20,560
Speaker 2: through to Israel and hit an airbase in the Negive

54
00:03:20,560 --> 00:03:24,440
Speaker 2: in the South. Israeli said very very limited damage. Shrapnel

55
00:03:24,720 --> 00:03:27,320
Speaker 2: did hit a seven year old girl in the south

56
00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,320
Speaker 2: as well, and she is fighting for her life in

57
00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:34,240
Speaker 2: a hospital. But other than that, it was remarkably pain

58
00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,520
Speaker 2: free event for Israel.

59
00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:40,200
Speaker 1: Ethan what if, Israeli officials said, since the attack.

60
00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,800
Speaker 2: You know, I'd say the initial response is one of

61
00:03:43,160 --> 00:03:46,760
Speaker 2: enormous pride in defiance that you could send three hundred

62
00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:50,680
Speaker 2: and fifty sophisticated weapons pieces to Israel and they could

63
00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:54,160
Speaker 2: all be shot down. There's also the look you see

64
00:03:54,200 --> 00:03:57,160
Speaker 2: world when we tell you that Iran is the source

65
00:03:57,160 --> 00:03:57,880
Speaker 2: of all evil?

66
00:03:58,080 --> 00:03:59,200
Speaker 3: What more do you need.

67
00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:02,320
Speaker 2: To know that? And then of course there's the whole

68
00:04:02,360 --> 00:04:06,840
Speaker 2: question of what Israel's response will be, should be, and

69
00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:11,840
Speaker 2: so forth, and that's a very complicated conversation. First of all,

70
00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:16,440
Speaker 2: the United States, which was instrumental in helping Israel, has

71
00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:20,920
Speaker 2: been urging it to not respond within any kind of urgency,

72
00:04:21,480 --> 00:04:24,600
Speaker 2: as have of France and Britain and Austria and Germany,

73
00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:28,240
Speaker 2: other countries that Israel has in the past been close to,

74
00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:31,320
Speaker 2: but in the last say, two or three months since

75
00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:35,120
Speaker 2: the war in Gaza has been seen to be deeply problematic.

76
00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:38,279
Speaker 2: So I think that for Israel to be back in

77
00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:42,680
Speaker 2: the bosom of its allies was satisfying. So that helped

78
00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,320
Speaker 2: lead to the idea that Israel could wait and think

79
00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:49,240
Speaker 2: about its response in its own time. On the other hand,

80
00:04:49,560 --> 00:04:53,120
Speaker 2: the government of this country is poems from D'tagne, who

81
00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,800
Speaker 2: is the sort of far left corner of this government.

82
00:04:55,880 --> 00:04:58,840
Speaker 2: Everybody else is to his right and really to rather

83
00:04:59,040 --> 00:05:01,960
Speaker 2: far to his right, and many of those ministers have

84
00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:07,520
Speaker 2: been calling very loudly for a harsh response, a crushing attack,

85
00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,480
Speaker 2: and so forth. And Channel fourteen in this country, which

86
00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,680
Speaker 2: is the kind of Fox News of Israel, the main

87
00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:18,880
Speaker 2: commentator basically went on TV yesterday and said, if this

88
00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,480
Speaker 2: government doesn't respond, it has no right to exist.

89
00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:24,960
Speaker 3: So there's plenty of pressure.

90
00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:27,840
Speaker 2: From the far right, but I would say that generally

91
00:05:27,839 --> 00:05:31,040
Speaker 2: in the population, I don't think there's an enormous thirst

92
00:05:31,080 --> 00:05:33,920
Speaker 2: for an instantaneous response. And then there's of course all

93
00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:36,159
Speaker 2: these other things going on. As you know, the reason

94
00:05:36,360 --> 00:05:39,280
Speaker 2: all this is happening is this war in Gaza. There

95
00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:42,440
Speaker 2: are more than one hundred hostages being held and Israelis

96
00:05:42,800 --> 00:05:46,640
Speaker 2: want them back and also want to eliminate the ability

97
00:05:46,680 --> 00:05:50,440
Speaker 2: of Hamas, the Islamis group in Gaza, to be ever

98
00:05:50,520 --> 00:05:53,920
Speaker 2: able to cross and do the kind of damage it

99
00:05:53,960 --> 00:05:55,920
Speaker 2: din on October seventh, what.

100
00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:57,599
Speaker 1: Led to the attacks that we saw over this weekend.

101
00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:01,240
Speaker 2: Israel and Iran have been engaged in what is often

102
00:06:01,320 --> 00:06:05,039
Speaker 2: called a shadow war for some four decades, and that

103
00:06:05,200 --> 00:06:08,400
Speaker 2: is because Iran has an official ideology, which is that

104
00:06:08,480 --> 00:06:12,479
Speaker 2: Israel has no right to exist, and has been funding

105
00:06:12,520 --> 00:06:16,479
Speaker 2: and arming malicious around Israel and in Lebanon and in Syria,

106
00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:20,880
Speaker 2: to arm them, to train them, and to encourage them

107
00:06:21,080 --> 00:06:24,760
Speaker 2: with the idea that eliminating the state of Israel was

108
00:06:24,800 --> 00:06:28,720
Speaker 2: an appropriate task and that they would help them. For example,

109
00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:33,760
Speaker 2: it is believed that in Habela, the militia in Lebanon,

110
00:06:34,279 --> 00:06:38,920
Speaker 2: it gets almost a billion dollars a year from Iran.

111
00:06:39,160 --> 00:06:43,400
Speaker 2: And I think that what happened on October seventh, when Hamas,

112
00:06:44,000 --> 00:06:48,640
Speaker 2: the Islamist group in Gaza, caused such damage in Israel,

113
00:06:48,760 --> 00:06:52,240
Speaker 2: it was an incredible blow to this country's sense of

114
00:06:52,279 --> 00:06:57,320
Speaker 2: itself and security, and also a sort of a moment

115
00:06:57,360 --> 00:07:02,520
Speaker 2: of recognition that what was seen as ragtag militia over

116
00:07:02,600 --> 00:07:06,920
Speaker 2: on the other side of that fence was actually quite sophisticated,

117
00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,120
Speaker 2: and that Israel's strategic position.

118
00:07:10,400 --> 00:07:12,240
Speaker 3: Was more vulnerable than had been understood.

119
00:07:12,920 --> 00:07:18,400
Speaker 2: Israel has considered the risk of a nuclear armed around

120
00:07:18,440 --> 00:07:21,280
Speaker 2: to be an existential risk, and it has over the

121
00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:27,400
Speaker 2: years sabotaged and worked to eliminate the ability of Iran

122
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:31,320
Speaker 2: to move forward as both a nuclear and any and

123
00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:35,440
Speaker 2: generally as a power. It has over the years actually

124
00:07:35,560 --> 00:07:42,760
Speaker 2: killed Iranian nuclear scientists and various Iranian officials in the

125
00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:46,360
Speaker 2: military side. And on April first of this year, a

126
00:07:46,480 --> 00:07:52,880
Speaker 2: drone attack took out seven Revolutionary Guard officers of Iran

127
00:07:53,160 --> 00:07:56,320
Speaker 2: in the city of Damascus, the capital of Syria, next

128
00:07:56,360 --> 00:08:01,240
Speaker 2: to an Iranian diplomatic compound. Two of those were the

129
00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:06,400
Speaker 2: two top commanders in Lebanon in Syria for the Revolutionary Guard,

130
00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:10,000
Speaker 2: and that was a major blow to Iran, and Iran

131
00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,880
Speaker 2: said it was not going to take this lying down.

132
00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:15,600
Speaker 3: It was going to attack Israel back Ethan.

133
00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:18,080
Speaker 1: The fear here is of a wider conflagration or a

134
00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,800
Speaker 1: wider war. What are you going to be watching for

135
00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,000
Speaker 1: in the days to come that sort of indicate the

136
00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:24,600
Speaker 1: direction of this conflict.

137
00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:30,240
Speaker 2: The first issue would be whether Israel does respond militarily

138
00:08:30,600 --> 00:08:34,720
Speaker 2: aggressively to Iran. All signs these days are that it

139
00:08:34,840 --> 00:08:37,840
Speaker 2: is not planning to do that in the short term.

140
00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:41,600
Speaker 2: Iran has reopened its own airspace. Israel announced the opening

141
00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,720
Speaker 2: up its own schools and its own airspace. There's a

142
00:08:44,800 --> 00:08:47,439
Speaker 2: sense that that is not going to happen. But these

143
00:08:48,120 --> 00:08:51,800
Speaker 2: proxy battles are ongoing. So what is Israel going to

144
00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:55,239
Speaker 2: do in Gaza? It has now called up two divisions

145
00:08:55,240 --> 00:08:57,920
Speaker 2: and servicests, so one has the sense that it may

146
00:08:57,920 --> 00:09:00,920
Speaker 2: be picking up its activity there and then equally in

147
00:09:01,400 --> 00:09:04,960
Speaker 2: northern Israel. In southern Lebanon, the battle between Hisbellah and

148
00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:10,240
Speaker 2: Israel has been ongoing, so that battle is very serious

149
00:09:10,280 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 2: as well. I mean, if one or two of those

150
00:09:12,679 --> 00:09:16,040
Speaker 2: ballistic missiles had gotten into Israel and killed people, I

151
00:09:16,040 --> 00:09:18,600
Speaker 2: think we'd be having a very different conversation today, would

152
00:09:18,600 --> 00:09:20,240
Speaker 2: be in a very different position.

153
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:21,600
Speaker 3: Regionally and internationally.

154
00:09:21,640 --> 00:09:26,000
Speaker 2: But that said, it didn't happen, and Iran, even before

155
00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,120
Speaker 2: all the missiles arrived, said this is it, We're done.

156
00:09:29,360 --> 00:09:32,840
Speaker 2: On Saturday night they made an announcement that.

157
00:09:32,760 --> 00:09:36,560
Speaker 1: Was Bloomberg's Israel Bureau chief Ethan Brahner. Regardless of how

158
00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,480
Speaker 1: Israel responds and what Iran does next, there will be

159
00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:50,680
Speaker 1: global ramifications. We'll get to those after the break. Over

160
00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:53,960
Speaker 1: the weekend, we saw a broad coalition of nations coordinate

161
00:09:54,080 --> 00:09:57,160
Speaker 1: to take out as many Iranian drones and missiles headed

162
00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,719
Speaker 1: for Israel as possible. To trace how that effort came

163
00:09:59,720 --> 00:10:01,959
Speaker 1: to get and why so many countries felt it was

164
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:05,480
Speaker 1: imperative to get involved, I turned to Nick Wadhams. He's

165
00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:08,840
Speaker 1: an editor in Washington, who oversees our National security team. So,

166
00:10:08,920 --> 00:10:11,080
Speaker 1: in the run up to these attacks and while they

167
00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,160
Speaker 1: were taking place, what were you and your colleagues on

168
00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:15,920
Speaker 1: the National Security team tracking?

169
00:10:16,120 --> 00:10:20,280
Speaker 4: The big thing was essentially that while Iran was messaging

170
00:10:20,400 --> 00:10:25,199
Speaker 4: that this attack was inevitable and would come very soon,

171
00:10:25,559 --> 00:10:30,080
Speaker 4: the administration and its allies were working furiously to stop it.

172
00:10:30,360 --> 00:10:35,640
Speaker 4: So it was this fascinating dynamic that was unfolding where

173
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:39,800
Speaker 4: we were really seeing the limits of US power and

174
00:10:39,840 --> 00:10:43,960
Speaker 4: its ability to exert what little leverage it has left

175
00:10:44,280 --> 00:10:47,160
Speaker 4: over a country like Iran, when the two countries are

176
00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,640
Speaker 4: not speaking to each other and their economies have been

177
00:10:49,720 --> 00:10:55,160
Speaker 4: so separated because of the sanctions, the US and the UK, France, Italy,

178
00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:57,600
Speaker 4: all these g seven countries that had been calling and

179
00:10:57,600 --> 00:11:00,880
Speaker 4: pressing Iran not to go ahead with the attack were

180
00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:03,960
Speaker 4: just totally ignored. So you had the UK Prime Minister

181
00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:06,840
Speaker 4: come to the US. He had spoken with the Ranian

182
00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:09,680
Speaker 4: foreign minister. He came and did a press conference with

183
00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,600
Speaker 4: Blincoln where he basically said, listen, they cannot do this.

184
00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:14,840
Speaker 4: This will be a disaster if they do it. He

185
00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:18,120
Speaker 4: tweeted President Biden said don't do it. So you have

186
00:11:18,200 --> 00:11:21,600
Speaker 4: this strange dynamic where the administration has put so much

187
00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:24,600
Speaker 4: focus on public messaging as well as the behind the

188
00:11:24,640 --> 00:11:27,320
Speaker 4: scenes stuff. I mean, I don't envy the work that

189
00:11:27,360 --> 00:11:30,520
Speaker 4: these guys have to do in a situation like that,

190
00:11:30,640 --> 00:11:32,040
Speaker 4: but it was a fascinating moment.

191
00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:34,400
Speaker 1: So Nick, we get word that these attacks are underway,

192
00:11:34,480 --> 00:11:36,800
Speaker 1: and then we see this kind of coalition of many

193
00:11:36,840 --> 00:11:40,760
Speaker 1: countries step up to essentially intercept a lot of these

194
00:11:41,280 --> 00:11:44,120
Speaker 1: missiles and drones. What was that like and how did

195
00:11:44,120 --> 00:11:44,720
Speaker 1: it come together?

196
00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,520
Speaker 4: This was an incredible moment where you really saw the

197
00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:50,160
Speaker 4: depth of the planning from the US and the UK

198
00:11:50,360 --> 00:11:54,040
Speaker 4: and also some regional allies. Jordan played a very surprising

199
00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:56,720
Speaker 4: role here in shooting down some of those drones. The

200
00:11:56,800 --> 00:12:00,119
Speaker 4: National Security Council officials came on a call with reporters

201
00:12:00,160 --> 00:12:03,679
Speaker 4: afterwards and said they had spent ten days preparing for this.

202
00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,880
Speaker 4: They had diverted two US naval destroyers that had been

203
00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:11,120
Speaker 4: in the region, but they put them even closer into proximity,

204
00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:16,920
Speaker 4: and then you saw in real time this extraordinary cat

205
00:12:16,960 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 4: and mouse game where we knew there were these drones

206
00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:23,120
Speaker 4: and missiles coming toward Israel, and it was clear that

207
00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:25,880
Speaker 4: while Israel was knocking down a lot of these drones

208
00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,040
Speaker 4: and missiles with its own air defense systems and its jets.

209
00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:32,600
Speaker 4: You also had the US and the UK sending up

210
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:36,560
Speaker 4: jets of their own F thirty fives to knock them down.

211
00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,800
Speaker 4: So what that showed me was that there was a very,

212
00:12:40,280 --> 00:12:44,320
Speaker 4: very detailed plan to deploy as soon as they got

213
00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:48,360
Speaker 4: the intelligence that Iran had launched these drones. And then

214
00:12:48,400 --> 00:12:52,240
Speaker 4: in the end you have to say it worked extremely effectively.

215
00:12:52,280 --> 00:12:54,640
Speaker 4: I think ninety nine percent of the drones and missiles

216
00:12:54,640 --> 00:12:55,480
Speaker 4: got shot down.

217
00:12:55,800 --> 00:12:58,280
Speaker 1: How did the scale and the scope of these attacks

218
00:12:58,559 --> 00:13:03,120
Speaker 1: compared to why the administration, what other governments expected would happen.

219
00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:06,840
Speaker 4: I think in the end, the really interesting thing was

220
00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:09,880
Speaker 4: the number of drones and missiles and the fact that

221
00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,400
Speaker 4: they used ballistic missiles. I mean, in total, I think

222
00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,200
Speaker 4: they said there were about three hundred drones, surface to

223
00:13:15,280 --> 00:13:19,400
Speaker 4: surface missiles and ballistic missiles. Exceeded of what a lot

224
00:13:19,400 --> 00:13:23,240
Speaker 4: of people thought would be the response from Iran. What

225
00:13:23,400 --> 00:13:27,600
Speaker 4: also exceeded expectations was Israel's ability to stop it. But

226
00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:29,560
Speaker 4: it was clear that this was not the sort of

227
00:13:29,720 --> 00:13:33,559
Speaker 4: nightmare scenario that folks had really feared. What happened there

228
00:13:33,679 --> 00:13:35,280
Speaker 4: was fear at some point there were a lot of

229
00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,680
Speaker 4: messages and reports swirling around that this was a multi

230
00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:41,760
Speaker 4: pronged attack coming from numerous directions, and that Israel would

231
00:13:41,800 --> 00:13:45,080
Speaker 4: simply be overwhelmed. That never happened. In the end, It

232
00:13:45,120 --> 00:13:47,720
Speaker 4: turned out to be relatively limited also in terms of

233
00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,320
Speaker 4: the targeting, so most of the targets were limited to

234
00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:54,079
Speaker 4: northern Israel, so you didn't see attacks across the breadth

235
00:13:54,160 --> 00:13:54,800
Speaker 4: of the country.

236
00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,640
Speaker 1: Nick, What have Israeli officials said about what might happen next?

237
00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:01,079
Speaker 4: Well, this is the big question that we are all

238
00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:03,800
Speaker 4: trying to figure out. So Israel has said it is

239
00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,080
Speaker 4: essentially duty bound to respond. Its ambassador went to the

240
00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,880
Speaker 4: UN and said this was an unprecedented attack on a

241
00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:15,000
Speaker 4: sovereign nation, which of course is true. Though Israel has

242
00:14:15,040 --> 00:14:19,960
Speaker 4: also launched attacks on Iranian forces in Syria, for example,

243
00:14:20,800 --> 00:14:23,440
Speaker 4: they have said they will respond. The messaging that's really

244
00:14:23,480 --> 00:14:26,800
Speaker 4: interesting that we've heard, coming both from Israel and its

245
00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,280
Speaker 4: proxies in the think tank community and elsewhere, is that

246
00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:34,840
Speaker 4: revenge is a dish best served cold, which to me suggests, Okay,

247
00:14:34,840 --> 00:14:38,480
Speaker 4: they're going to wait some time. We have been speaking

248
00:14:38,480 --> 00:14:40,600
Speaker 4: with people for the last twenty four hours, and there's

249
00:14:40,600 --> 00:14:43,520
Speaker 4: a real sense that really any option is on the table.

250
00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:45,880
Speaker 4: There could be a direct attack. Israel could choose to

251
00:14:45,920 --> 00:14:49,600
Speaker 4: go after Iran's nuclear program. So really, I think at

252
00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:52,560
Speaker 4: this point, what you're seeing from the administration is they say, hey, listen,

253
00:14:52,640 --> 00:14:55,040
Speaker 4: take the win. You guys did great. You repelled all

254
00:14:55,080 --> 00:14:57,840
Speaker 4: those attacks. You don't really need to do anymore. You've

255
00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:00,480
Speaker 4: proved your military might. That is not the message we're

256
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:01,320
Speaker 4: getting from Israel.

257
00:15:01,600 --> 00:15:04,760
Speaker 1: And my read of the message from Iran is this

258
00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,040
Speaker 1: is done. There's nothing else that Iran is planning here.

259
00:15:07,040 --> 00:15:07,800
Speaker 1: Am I reading that right?

260
00:15:08,560 --> 00:15:11,560
Speaker 4: It was an extraordinary moment in a week full of them,

261
00:15:11,720 --> 00:15:16,320
Speaker 4: where Iran sent this letter to the UN Security Council

262
00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,720
Speaker 4: and basically said, hey, we now regard this operation as completed.

263
00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:22,760
Speaker 4: You know, it does make you think about what the

264
00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,640
Speaker 4: point of these attacks is. Was Iran actually trying to

265
00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:31,760
Speaker 4: achieve some military objective in these attacks, seeing as how

266
00:15:31,800 --> 00:15:35,080
Speaker 4: it didn't achieve anything with the attacks, at least militarily,

267
00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,840
Speaker 4: basically none of its targets were hit. But then they

268
00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:41,920
Speaker 4: still say, Okay, the action is over, which makes you

269
00:15:41,960 --> 00:15:46,640
Speaker 4: think really that this was a messaging campaign designed to

270
00:15:46,840 --> 00:15:50,600
Speaker 4: send a warning to Israel that more could come.

271
00:15:51,120 --> 00:15:53,480
Speaker 1: Nick It's Monday morning in New York and Washington as

272
00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,240
Speaker 1: we're speaking. What are you watching for in the hours

273
00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:57,160
Speaker 1: to come?

274
00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:01,160
Speaker 4: So a few things. Obviously trying to figure out how

275
00:16:01,280 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 4: Israel will respond and whether it lays the groundwork for

276
00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,360
Speaker 4: a military response against Iran or tries to push this

277
00:16:07,520 --> 00:16:11,480
Speaker 4: back into the shadows with assassinations, for example, that it

278
00:16:11,480 --> 00:16:15,360
Speaker 4: doesn't take responsibility for cyber attacks, things like that. The

279
00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:19,520
Speaker 4: second in the US is how this shapes US military

280
00:16:19,520 --> 00:16:23,160
Speaker 4: assistance for Israel and Ukraine. There's this supplemental that's been

281
00:16:23,240 --> 00:16:25,840
Speaker 4: hung up in Congress because the House Speaker doesn't want

282
00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,520
Speaker 4: to send it to a vote. We now have indications

283
00:16:28,560 --> 00:16:31,760
Speaker 4: that the attack by Iran has unlocked that in some form.

284
00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,880
Speaker 4: And then another thing is what happens to Israel's campaign

285
00:16:35,960 --> 00:16:40,440
Speaker 4: in Gaza. The Iran situation has diverted attention so much

286
00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:44,240
Speaker 4: from Israel's campaign. Israel has been determined to go ahead

287
00:16:44,240 --> 00:16:46,360
Speaker 4: with this invasion of Rafa, where there are about a

288
00:16:46,400 --> 00:16:49,360
Speaker 4: million civilians. The US has said, please do not do

289
00:16:49,480 --> 00:16:52,360
Speaker 4: that without a plan for these people. But you have

290
00:16:52,440 --> 00:16:55,400
Speaker 4: a moment right now where there is reel unity. Iran

291
00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:59,040
Speaker 4: is isolated again, Israel is not because of this attack.

292
00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:03,160
Speaker 4: Do they decide maybe now is an opportune time to

293
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:05,639
Speaker 4: commit to the cease fire, or do they say, no,

294
00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:07,520
Speaker 4: We're just going to go ahead with this thing anyway.

295
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,720
Speaker 1: Nick Wadhams is an editor in Bloomberg's Washington bureau overseeing

296
00:17:11,800 --> 00:17:16,880
Speaker 1: national security coverage. Thanks for listening to The Big Take

297
00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:20,160
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gura. This episode was produced

298
00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:23,159
Speaker 1: and mixed by Alex Sagura. We got additional production support

299
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:27,560
Speaker 1: from Thomas lou Jessicabec, and Adriana Tapia Zafra. This episode

300
00:17:27,600 --> 00:17:31,160
Speaker 1: was edited by Caitlin Kenney and Rodney Jefferson. Naomi Shaven

301
00:17:31,240 --> 00:17:34,520
Speaker 1: is our senior producer. Elizabeth Ponso is our senior editor.

302
00:17:34,840 --> 00:17:38,320
Speaker 1: Nicole Beemster Borr is our executive producer. Sage Bauman is

303
00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:41,760
Speaker 1: Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Please subscribe and review The Big

304
00:17:41,800 --> 00:17:44,760
Speaker 1: Take wherever you listen to podcasts. It helps new listeners

305
00:17:44,840 --> 00:17:47,920
Speaker 1: find the show. Thanks for listening. We'll be back tomorrow.