1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day, we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,520 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,400 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. All right, let's check 7 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,560 Speaker 1: in with Jim Lowell. He's a chief investment officer at 8 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:28,080 Speaker 1: Advisor Investments. Maybe we'll get his communing anecdote of the day. 9 00:00:28,120 --> 00:00:30,280 Speaker 1: But Jim, what are you doing with this market? Here? 10 00:00:30,320 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: We've got nowhere to hide. Bond market, I got crushed, 11 00:00:33,640 --> 00:00:37,280 Speaker 1: equity markets. I'm near bear market territory. What are you 12 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:43,000 Speaker 1: doing well? We're taking a discipline diversified course. We know 13 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: that bear markets are are not unusual, even though this 14 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,400 Speaker 1: one feels unusual given the lack of volatility that we 15 00:00:50,440 --> 00:00:53,560 Speaker 1: saw in the market over the past several years. Um, 16 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: we know that every downturn feels as if the current 17 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,680 Speaker 1: conditions an inevitable outcome will be different. We don't think 18 00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:04,200 Speaker 1: they will be, but we do think we're in for 19 00:01:04,280 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: a protracted period of time where investors nerves will be tested, 20 00:01:08,920 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 1: and they will need to stay focused on their long 21 00:01:11,560 --> 00:01:16,319 Speaker 1: term investment goals rather than the near term price disruptions, 22 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,679 Speaker 1: which of course are are alarming, made excessively so, not 23 00:01:20,800 --> 00:01:24,319 Speaker 1: just due to the return of volatility, but of course 24 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,959 Speaker 1: due to the general geopolitical state of the world, which 25 00:01:28,000 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 1: feels as the things that become more unhinged than usual. 26 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:35,520 Speaker 1: You know, I'm looking up at uh Bloomberg surveillance on 27 00:01:35,520 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 1: on television right now, Jim. We have Bob Prince on. 28 00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:43,720 Speaker 1: He's the co chief investment officer at Bridgewater UM, one 29 00:01:43,800 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 1: of the biggest hedge funds and not the biggest hedge 30 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: fund in the country. He says that this inflation is 31 00:01:50,360 --> 00:01:53,360 Speaker 1: like the seventies. Again, he says, the US has headed 32 00:01:53,360 --> 00:01:56,920 Speaker 1: towards a stagflation the likes of which we haven't seen 33 00:01:56,960 --> 00:01:59,400 Speaker 1: since the nineteen seventies. And there was there was a 34 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: while when, UM, you know, big investors, UM, super rich guys, 35 00:02:04,920 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: we're saying this is nothing like the seventies. But now 36 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:14,640 Speaker 1: it seems to be the common the consensus. Do you agree, No, 37 00:02:15,520 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: I don't agree, and I certainly hope that that he 38 00:02:19,400 --> 00:02:23,280 Speaker 1: isn't right, because that grinding bear market of nineteen seventy 39 00:02:23,280 --> 00:02:27,760 Speaker 1: four through night three was profoundly difficult for anyone who 40 00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 1: was who anyone who is an investor, are they a 41 00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 1: professional or individual? I would say that I take some 42 00:02:33,960 --> 00:02:36,240 Speaker 1: measure of comfort in the fact that the vast majority 43 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,079 Speaker 1: of hedge funds don't seem to deliver on what their 44 00:02:39,120 --> 00:02:41,440 Speaker 1: mandate is. Maybe this time will be different for them. 45 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,880 Speaker 1: It's the perfect environment for those who have skill sets 46 00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: that enable them to short the market UM, but those 47 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: skill sets usually are found wanting in terms of the 48 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: return that they deliver. I do think that we're in 49 00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:59,919 Speaker 1: for a protracted period of inflationary pressure UM, you know, ironic, 50 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:04,400 Speaker 1: We of course set against the potential for some kind 51 00:03:04,440 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: of recession, whether it's a technical recession of two negative 52 00:03:07,480 --> 00:03:12,080 Speaker 1: quarters of GDP or just an existential recession where businesses 53 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 1: and consumers stop spending enough to trigger UM, to trigger 54 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 1: the kind of recessionary environment where it becomes even more 55 00:03:20,960 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 1: difficult to maneuver. I take some measure of comfort in 56 00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:27,760 Speaker 1: the fact that while the first quarter obviously was the 57 00:03:27,800 --> 00:03:31,799 Speaker 1: worst quarter for bonds in fifty years of bond buffers 58 00:03:31,800 --> 00:03:37,160 Speaker 1: did not hold ever since then, they've been behaving relatively 59 00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 1: reasonably in terms of on down days, giving us that 60 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,200 Speaker 1: defensiveness that we we aim to achieve from them in 61 00:03:44,280 --> 00:03:49,000 Speaker 1: our portfolios, and on updates, letting the market run where 62 00:03:49,040 --> 00:03:51,839 Speaker 1: it runs on the equity side. So I think we're 63 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: getting to a more defensible position in terms of asset allocation, 64 00:03:56,480 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: but we're not out of the woods yet. I think 65 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:02,600 Speaker 1: we've got considerable downward pressure to have to be able 66 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:05,520 Speaker 1: to manage through it all right, Jim, thanks so much 67 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,200 Speaker 1: for checking in with us. We appreciate that. Jim Lowell, 68 00:04:08,240 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: chief investment officer for Advisor Investments. Again, a sell off 69 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,600 Speaker 1: in the marketplace today, uh and the equities led by 70 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:21,120 Speaker 1: nastac off three and a half percent. Again some tough 71 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,600 Speaker 1: economic data, as Greg was pointing out, also snapped down 72 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: on some cautious outlook, bringing all the other social media 73 00:04:29,560 --> 00:04:31,880 Speaker 1: names down with I'm looking at Alphabet here down eight 74 00:04:31,920 --> 00:04:34,640 Speaker 1: percent as well. So we want to talk tech. I 75 00:04:34,720 --> 00:04:36,000 Speaker 1: want to kind of bring it out a little bit 76 00:04:36,040 --> 00:04:38,280 Speaker 1: and and not just focus on Snap but really on 77 00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:40,560 Speaker 1: the whole tech space here and what we're seeing out there. 78 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:43,559 Speaker 1: A lot of carnage. Dan i'ves Managing director and senior 79 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,680 Speaker 1: equity analyst, and web Bush Securities has had a very 80 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,560 Speaker 1: constructive view on a tech space for a long time, 81 00:04:49,880 --> 00:04:52,680 Speaker 1: has been right. Then as we step back here, let's 82 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: step back a little bit just from Snap and we 83 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: we can talk about Snap and what the um Mr 84 00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:00,520 Speaker 1: Spiegel's comments mean for the space, But how are you 85 00:05:00,560 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: looking at tech here and what we're seeing in the 86 00:05:02,400 --> 00:05:05,680 Speaker 1: in the pullback in these names. Look, I think it's 87 00:05:05,720 --> 00:05:10,800 Speaker 1: just indiscriminate selling regardless of where the companies play enterprise, 88 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:15,760 Speaker 1: cyber cloud, consumer, ad tech, And I think what we're 89 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 1: just seeing is just a massive risk off regardless of prise. 90 00:05:19,360 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: And it looks when when tech sells off on a 91 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,080 Speaker 1: Snap warning that's been one of the more little quality 92 00:05:26,160 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: tech companies last decade, it just shows just how white 93 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:34,680 Speaker 1: knuckle this is. But of course it makes sense if 94 00:05:35,680 --> 00:05:38,240 Speaker 1: you're in the business that relies on advertising revenue and 95 00:05:38,279 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: advertisers no longer paying for UM your services. Is this 96 00:05:43,800 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: are the broader implications clear to you? Or do you 97 00:05:46,160 --> 00:05:51,720 Speaker 1: does it still feel like a Snap um specific problem? Look, 98 00:05:51,720 --> 00:05:55,800 Speaker 1: I mean Snap they bleamed everything except the wind, you know, 99 00:05:55,839 --> 00:05:58,400 Speaker 1: in terms of their their warning, and I think it 100 00:05:58,520 --> 00:06:01,599 Speaker 1: just comes down to one d The point clearly we're 101 00:06:01,600 --> 00:06:04,480 Speaker 1: seeing softness and then that's and that's something that's already 102 00:06:04,480 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: beaten too. These stocks, I mean a lot of these 103 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 1: names right now are baking in a mild to modest 104 00:06:10,960 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 1: recession already. You know, our point is you want to 105 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:18,960 Speaker 1: stay away from the consumer ad plays, but you want 106 00:06:18,960 --> 00:06:21,960 Speaker 1: to be more focused on enterprise because enterprise is what 107 00:06:22,080 --> 00:06:24,120 Speaker 1: we believe is holding up strong, and that's going to 108 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,400 Speaker 1: be a popular strength, you know, during this market storm. 109 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:31,920 Speaker 1: But overall, I believe tech is way oversold relative to 110 00:06:32,279 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 1: what I believe would be a mild recession, where in 111 00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 1: streets baking. And much worse all right now is that 112 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:44,479 Speaker 1: as you know, is off from it's high. So I mean, 113 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: how do let's start with maybe just the biggest name 114 00:06:47,000 --> 00:06:49,280 Speaker 1: that I know you cover Dan and a lot of 115 00:06:49,320 --> 00:06:51,840 Speaker 1: folks own in their portfolio, which is Apple. How do 116 00:06:51,880 --> 00:06:54,720 Speaker 1: you think about that kind of a name. Look, I mean, 117 00:06:54,760 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: we just did checks last week, and if you look 118 00:06:56,880 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: in the supply chain in China, you know, Regard, we 119 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:04,640 Speaker 1: won't see a zero COVID in China. It's tracking slightly 120 00:07:04,680 --> 00:07:08,080 Speaker 1: better than expectations so far, and I think it just 121 00:07:08,120 --> 00:07:12,720 Speaker 1: shows that pockets of demand across the boarder are holding 122 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,360 Speaker 1: up better than expected. And I think Apple is a 123 00:07:15,400 --> 00:07:19,360 Speaker 1: good example one where the valuation here is basically discounting 124 00:07:19,480 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: thirty You know of of demand that goes away, which 125 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,720 Speaker 1: we disagree with, and that's why I think you have 126 00:07:26,800 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: to separate. You can't treat every company equally. I think 127 00:07:29,640 --> 00:07:33,119 Speaker 1: you look at names like Apple, Microsoft, the cloud theme 128 00:07:33,200 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: in terms of ways to play Google as well as 129 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:39,600 Speaker 1: Amazon cybersecurity, and I think that's we are going to 130 00:07:39,680 --> 00:07:41,960 Speaker 1: see just more of a have and have not in 131 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:44,600 Speaker 1: tech And I think this is just a perfect example. 132 00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: It's playing out. But again, good news is going to 133 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:50,000 Speaker 1: be perceived as bad news. Bad news is gonna be 134 00:07:50,160 --> 00:07:52,920 Speaker 1: perceived as worse news. That's just a cycle that we're 135 00:07:52,920 --> 00:07:56,400 Speaker 1: in right now. If we look at your universe of coverage, Dan, 136 00:07:57,080 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: you know, not just Tesla and Apple, but also I 137 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:05,840 Speaker 1: guess Um, Palo Alto, Ziff Davis, rivan Um, some of 138 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:09,280 Speaker 1: the names seemed like they would be very poorly affected 139 00:08:09,360 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 1: by worsening relationships with China. Others wouldn't be affected. How 140 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:18,280 Speaker 1: do you see, um, your universe of stocks. If US 141 00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:22,520 Speaker 1: China relationships get worse, look, I think that's the black Swan. 142 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: Then right, and and of course even we've seen this 143 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:28,760 Speaker 1: week there's just worries about tensions there as well as 144 00:08:28,760 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: Taiwan and look at China. That continues to right now 145 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,000 Speaker 1: be the dark cloud over attack, especially when it comes 146 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:39,720 Speaker 1: to Apple, when it comes to Tessa, the supply chain, 147 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,720 Speaker 1: which is really key across the board in terms of chips. 148 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: But that's also why believe when it comes to software, 149 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:50,240 Speaker 1: whether it's cloud, whether it's cyber security, those are much 150 00:08:50,280 --> 00:08:52,560 Speaker 1: more insulated. And I think more and more we're gonna 151 00:08:52,600 --> 00:08:56,480 Speaker 1: see these enterprise names that are going to continue to outperform. 152 00:08:56,520 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: You know is right now, there's just worries about what's 153 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:03,000 Speaker 1: going on. I think snapped send flamers because of also 154 00:09:03,120 --> 00:09:06,520 Speaker 1: the niature of just missing four weeks after they give 155 00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:10,840 Speaker 1: guidance to basically just takeaway guidance, say it's the disaster 156 00:09:10,960 --> 00:09:14,880 Speaker 1: and give minimal reasoning around that. I mean that, I 157 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 1: think that's really what scared investments here. You know that 158 00:09:18,679 --> 00:09:22,720 Speaker 1: you mentioned you know cybersecurity clouds too. Of the areas 159 00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:27,640 Speaker 1: the stronger areas within the whole text substack. Uh Dan, 160 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:33,079 Speaker 1: what are those companies saying about maybe customer demand? Is 161 00:09:33,120 --> 00:09:37,560 Speaker 1: there anything that a recession fears are coming through and 162 00:09:37,559 --> 00:09:41,440 Speaker 1: maybe their order books at all looks so far we 163 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:43,920 Speaker 1: haven't seen it. I mean, you've seen some cracks in 164 00:09:44,040 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 1: terms of slower hiring, and I think you'll see sales 165 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,839 Speaker 1: for US next week. Talk about strength overall Europe. Weakness 166 00:09:50,840 --> 00:09:52,839 Speaker 1: has been spotty in terms of what we've seen, and 167 00:09:52,880 --> 00:09:55,480 Speaker 1: that's why I Apoloy just keeps coming down to right 168 00:09:55,520 --> 00:09:59,640 Speaker 1: now beat into these stocks. Are street numbers coming down 169 00:09:59,640 --> 00:10:04,679 Speaker 1: by in two three. So if it's anything between a 170 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 1: soft landing, even just a slight to modest recession, then 171 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: than stocks today Texas especially a way over sold here. 172 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 1: And that's why we're just right now in this scenario 173 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:20,079 Speaker 1: spray char analysis just given what we've called, you know, 174 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:23,920 Speaker 1: Rubric's Q macro and any bad news is just going 175 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:28,200 Speaker 1: to get new exacerbated. That's what we're seeing today. Any 176 00:10:28,240 --> 00:10:32,000 Speaker 1: concern about the housing market, Dannemy, We've seen really bad 177 00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 1: numbers today in new home sales, and I'm starting to 178 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 1: hear more and more people say this this could turn 179 00:10:39,160 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 1: quickly and be maybe the gray Swan that people had 180 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:48,000 Speaker 1: had difficulty spotting. Well, I I view it. I mean 181 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:49,439 Speaker 1: there's differently in a view, but I view it that 182 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:53,160 Speaker 1: that also takes some of the said's job. It already 183 00:10:53,160 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 1: takes care of it, right, That would ultimately be less 184 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:57,880 Speaker 1: interest rate hikes that you'll see down the road. After 185 00:10:57,960 --> 00:11:00,360 Speaker 1: fifty and fifty you're gonna see a fro off come 186 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:03,720 Speaker 1: at the market whoeverages come out of the system. But 187 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 1: that's why I do not view this as a dot 188 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,840 Speaker 1: com bubble burst Todd Oh. I don't look at OH 189 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:11,520 Speaker 1: eight or nine see any comparisons. I just view as 190 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:14,440 Speaker 1: a massive overcraction risk who's coming out of the system. 191 00:11:14,440 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 1: But again, in the news cycle that we're in with 192 00:11:16,800 --> 00:11:19,160 Speaker 1: what we're seeing horrific in Ukraine as well as zero 193 00:11:19,200 --> 00:11:23,320 Speaker 1: COVID in China, you're just seeing investadors, regardless of price, 194 00:11:23,400 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: get out of risk assets. All right, Dan, Good, good 195 00:11:26,720 --> 00:11:29,520 Speaker 1: overview there from your perspective. We always appreciate getting the 196 00:11:29,600 --> 00:11:32,839 Speaker 1: big tech call there, Dan, i'ves managing director and senior 197 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,640 Speaker 1: equity analysts at web Bush Securities and again calling out 198 00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: some of the stronger areas from Dan's perspective in the 199 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,720 Speaker 1: tech stack, call it the cloud, which is certainly a 200 00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:44,720 Speaker 1: big growth there we've heard about for many years, as 201 00:11:44,760 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: well as cybersecurity as two of maybe the stronger areas 202 00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,480 Speaker 1: within the tech spend that he thinks will fare better, 203 00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: and they certainly are on the way down here in 204 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,600 Speaker 1: terms of relative underperformance, but also on the turn as well. 205 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:07,280 Speaker 1: I get about literally two pitches from PR like flax 206 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:10,800 Speaker 1: every day. Mostly don't ever open even open the emails. 207 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 1: I got one though, um from Lisa Peterson saying like, hey, dude, 208 00:12:15,720 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: I hear you're into bikes. If you want to go 209 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:20,840 Speaker 1: to any city and rent a bike, that's a difficult 210 00:12:20,840 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: thing to do. Easy with cars part of motorcycles, She says, 211 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: I have a solution for you. It's called Rider's Share, 212 00:12:26,840 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 1: And so she pitched me them one of the co 213 00:12:28,920 --> 00:12:33,440 Speaker 1: founders and the ceomore, Guillermo Cornejo, to come on and 214 00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:36,480 Speaker 1: talk about his business, which I just think is absolutely fascinating. 215 00:12:36,480 --> 00:12:38,520 Speaker 1: We got him now on the line. Guiermo, thanks so 216 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:43,120 Speaker 1: much for joining us. Um, I'm dreaming big for this company, 217 00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 1: but you guys are just getting started. Tell us about 218 00:12:45,760 --> 00:12:48,120 Speaker 1: how you got the idea and how you're executing on it. 219 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:53,920 Speaker 1: Thank you. Right there, Share right there's share dot Com 220 00:12:54,440 --> 00:12:57,880 Speaker 1: started four years ago because I could not afford to 221 00:12:57,920 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 1: buy a motorcycle, and I really wanted to write one, 222 00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:05,880 Speaker 1: but renting was even more expensive than owning. So I 223 00:13:05,920 --> 00:13:08,800 Speaker 1: was like, it's time to you know, bring a peer 224 00:13:08,840 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: to peer into motorcycle rentals. And so how has that 225 00:13:12,600 --> 00:13:14,840 Speaker 1: worked out? I noticed that I just did a quick 226 00:13:14,840 --> 00:13:19,040 Speaker 1: search around, um where I live in Westchester, and I 227 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 1: can get everything from a Vespa for like thirty dollars 228 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:27,440 Speaker 1: a day to yeah, Harley like Street Clyde for a 229 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:30,640 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty which or actually I think I saw 230 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: Harley Fat Boy for like ninety bucks, which is a 231 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,600 Speaker 1: great price. There's a big differentiation in price, but there's 232 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:39,800 Speaker 1: a lot of supply out there just going peer to peer. UM, 233 00:13:39,840 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 1: I feel like there's more growth though, Guillermo, you could 234 00:13:42,200 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 1: get rental uh companies, dealerships involved, you could go international, 235 00:13:47,440 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 1: get out of the US. I mean, what what what 236 00:13:49,200 --> 00:13:53,880 Speaker 1: are your plans for the company right now? Our main 237 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,120 Speaker 1: focus is to continue to grow that supply. UM, we 238 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:00,160 Speaker 1: have thousands of motorcycles, but we have an appen men 239 00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:04,040 Speaker 1: to support dozens of thousands of motorcycles and just and 240 00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:07,680 Speaker 1: for the people that don't know, UM, we don't own 241 00:14:07,679 --> 00:14:10,800 Speaker 1: any of the motorcycles. We use the airbnb model basically, 242 00:14:11,440 --> 00:14:14,800 Speaker 1: but You've got insurance set up right, correct. We provide 243 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,680 Speaker 1: insurance and road and assistance. We've met the writers, you know. 244 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: We we basically the risk the transaction as much as possible. Gamma. 245 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: I'm a big fan of the company Harley Davidson. Ever 246 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 1: since it kind of came public. I always followed the 247 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:29,160 Speaker 1: quarterly results, and I know one of the challenges for 248 00:14:29,200 --> 00:14:34,479 Speaker 1: them is getting younger people into the motorcycle. UM Activity 249 00:14:34,560 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 1: talk to us how you view that side of the business, 250 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 1: the demand side, the total market size. When I work 251 00:14:41,200 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 1: in the auto industry, we saw that millennials actually love 252 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:48,040 Speaker 1: buying cars when they kind of afford it. So that's 253 00:14:48,120 --> 00:14:49,880 Speaker 1: kind of what riders shared asked. We make writing a 254 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,440 Speaker 1: motorcycle more accessible, so the media and age of our 255 00:14:53,520 --> 00:14:58,080 Speaker 1: user is in the midferities. We're looking to partner with 256 00:14:58,080 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: O E. M S to get more you know, more 257 00:15:00,560 --> 00:15:04,760 Speaker 1: butts on seats. Yes, UM, you should definitely hook up 258 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,920 Speaker 1: with Harley Davidson. One of the cool things about that company, 259 00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: and I'm obviously a huge Ducati fan myself as well. Course, 260 00:15:11,360 --> 00:15:15,880 Speaker 1: UM both of them are going electric. Harley is already there. 261 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: Ducatti is building the electric bikes for UM Moto g 262 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:23,240 Speaker 1: P does this? Do you think this is a big 263 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,040 Speaker 1: game changer because there's a lot of kids out there 264 00:15:26,040 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: who don't like extremely loud uh you know, fat bobs 265 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:34,040 Speaker 1: with straight pipes. I happen to love that that sound, Harley, 266 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,480 Speaker 1: you know the classic potato potato potato. It's so loud 267 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,600 Speaker 1: and offensive, which is why I like it. But the kids, 268 00:15:40,800 --> 00:15:43,520 Speaker 1: you know, are different. Um, do you think switching to 269 00:15:43,600 --> 00:15:45,560 Speaker 1: electric is going to be a big difference for the 270 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 1: whole motorcycle industry? Gammo? They're easier to ride because young 271 00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:53,960 Speaker 1: kids don't know how to ship gears. Oh true, you 272 00:15:53,960 --> 00:15:55,680 Speaker 1: don't have to worry about you don't have to worry 273 00:15:55,680 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 1: on maintenance as much. But electric motorcycles aren't there yet. 274 00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: None of them has the ranch that at Tesla has, 275 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 1: so I think we're still I mean, the technology is there, 276 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:09,680 Speaker 1: somebody has needs to come up with a design that 277 00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,000 Speaker 1: has very low drag and very long range. Well, and 278 00:16:12,040 --> 00:16:13,880 Speaker 1: they're expensive, right, I mean one of the things you 279 00:16:13,960 --> 00:16:16,720 Speaker 1: enable people to do is to dip a toe in 280 00:16:16,720 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: the water and see if they like it. Absolutely. And 281 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: because like the motorcycles have very low maintenance cost, we 282 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: we can make their rental sit even more affordable by 283 00:16:25,880 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 1: using three bags. You know, I'm very interested. I've told 284 00:16:28,600 --> 00:16:31,800 Speaker 1: you Matt and getting a vespa in my middle age, 285 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 1: and maybe I can try it out through this thing 286 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: you can't. In fact, there's a bunch of vespers I 287 00:16:36,680 --> 00:16:40,080 Speaker 1: saw in New Jersey near you. Um, it looks like 288 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:44,840 Speaker 1: one guy who has just a whole garage full of scooters. Garmo, great, 289 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: great talking to you, UM, and we wish you the best, 290 00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: Lucky Armore Cornejo there co founder and CEO of riders 291 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 1: Share UM. And if you are interested in checking out 292 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,240 Speaker 1: a motorcycle or a scooter or anywhere around the country, 293 00:16:56,360 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: UM America that is, you can go ahead and check 294 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 1: it out. And Paul I recommend to you to try 295 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 1: because for me, UM, my first ride on a Vestpo 296 00:17:06,160 --> 00:17:09,440 Speaker 1: was a life changing event and I think it's still 297 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,200 Speaker 1: the most fun way to get around cities is riding 298 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: a Vestpo or any kind of scooter. So I think 299 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:17,560 Speaker 1: I might have to do scooting around the summit, New Jersey. 300 00:17:17,880 --> 00:17:25,679 Speaker 1: That was good stuff. Jason Greenblatt, he's a senior portfolio 301 00:17:25,720 --> 00:17:29,280 Speaker 1: manager at American Century Investments, And I want to talk 302 00:17:29,320 --> 00:17:34,439 Speaker 1: fixed income, obviously with with you Jason, Um, but I 303 00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 1: want to start it out from the perspective of the consumer, 304 00:17:37,400 --> 00:17:41,280 Speaker 1: because we just heard Brian moynihan on Bloomberg Surveillance saying 305 00:17:41,320 --> 00:17:45,560 Speaker 1: that the idea that UM Americans have spent their stimmies 306 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 1: already is the wrong idea. The idea that the consumer 307 00:17:48,280 --> 00:17:50,480 Speaker 1: is in a difficult place right now, at least from 308 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:52,480 Speaker 1: his vantage point as running one of the biggest credit 309 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,879 Speaker 1: card operations in the country, is just wrong. Um, what 310 00:17:55,960 --> 00:18:00,000 Speaker 1: do you think about the consumer, especially given the inflation 311 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:02,960 Speaker 1: that we're seeing in concerns, little cracks that we're seeing 312 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 1: in markets like housing. Good morning, Thanks for having me on. Yeah, 313 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:11,879 Speaker 1: I think the consumer topic is is certainly uh topical today. 314 00:18:11,920 --> 00:18:15,919 Speaker 1: Whether you mentioned Brian moynihan with Bank of America today, 315 00:18:15,920 --> 00:18:19,240 Speaker 1: for Jamie Diamond and JP Morgan yesterday talking about the 316 00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 1: strength of the consumer. We we agree. We think that 317 00:18:22,760 --> 00:18:25,960 Speaker 1: you know, consumers in great shape today. However, what's the 318 00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:28,960 Speaker 1: question for tomorrow? And we think that we're starting to 319 00:18:29,000 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: see cracks. You know, we mentioned Abercrombie and Fitch, we 320 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,480 Speaker 1: had Target and Walmart, and the shift in consumer spending, 321 00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:41,159 Speaker 1: this change from goods two services is certainly having an 322 00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:45,600 Speaker 1: impact and inflation is front and center. Rising rates, higher 323 00:18:45,640 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 1: costs passed through of costs that we saw in the 324 00:18:48,480 --> 00:18:52,560 Speaker 1: first quarter is starting away on consumer demand, and we 325 00:18:52,600 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: think that the consumer may be in trouble in the 326 00:18:55,680 --> 00:18:57,760 Speaker 1: second half of this year. And where does that hit 327 00:18:58,080 --> 00:19:01,720 Speaker 1: In fixed income we were just talking about out UM, 328 00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:06,560 Speaker 1: you know, high yield problems crack starting to show, so 329 00:19:07,440 --> 00:19:11,520 Speaker 1: does it make its way down to investment grade? Investment 330 00:19:11,560 --> 00:19:15,680 Speaker 1: grade is is certainly taking a licking year to date, 331 00:19:15,840 --> 00:19:21,800 Speaker 1: right between rising treasury prices, rising treasury yields, I'm sorry, 332 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,960 Speaker 1: and also credit spreads widening, But we could also say 333 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:29,200 Speaker 1: that yields are more normalized at this point at four 334 00:19:29,200 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 1: and a half percent. Where it starts to to impact 335 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 1: UM credit particularly is is valuations on the equity side 336 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,560 Speaker 1: become cheaper, so do M and A potentials and leveraging 337 00:19:41,560 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 1: A balance sheets. So we're very worried about what could 338 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:48,919 Speaker 1: be coming down the pipe in terms of new supply 339 00:19:49,000 --> 00:19:52,560 Speaker 1: of debt to to either buy back shares and or 340 00:19:52,720 --> 00:19:56,119 Speaker 1: buy companies from from company A to company B, whether 341 00:19:56,160 --> 00:20:00,720 Speaker 1: that's private equity or from financial buyers. You know in 342 00:20:00,800 --> 00:20:04,639 Speaker 1: the UM, you know space of company A buying up 343 00:20:04,760 --> 00:20:08,960 Speaker 1: here you know, Uh, Jason, I just punched an I 344 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:11,720 Speaker 1: N go to get the Bloomberg Index browser, and I 345 00:20:11,760 --> 00:20:16,000 Speaker 1: see the total return for US corporate bonds off negative 346 00:20:16,520 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 1: thirteen point three six percent year to date. So you are, 347 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:22,720 Speaker 1: at American Century, a member of the Global Fixed Income 348 00:20:22,760 --> 00:20:26,400 Speaker 1: Investment Committee, which sets investment outlooks for the global fixed 349 00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:30,199 Speaker 1: income group. Holy cow, what do you tell your teams? 350 00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 1: What do your teams tell you after a minus first 351 00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 1: four and a half months of the year. Yeah, it's 352 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: just a fair point there. Um. Certainly growth is slowing. Um, 353 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:46,919 Speaker 1: the FED is trying to combat inflation, and you know, 354 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,800 Speaker 1: as early as two plus weeks ago we had Chairman 355 00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:52,760 Speaker 1: Powell saying they will do what it takes to bring 356 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:57,400 Speaker 1: inflation down to two. Now we're starting to hear some 357 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,800 Speaker 1: some rumblings of perhaps will will pause in September. We 358 00:21:01,840 --> 00:21:05,720 Speaker 1: had Bostick out yesterday talking about September is is maybe 359 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,080 Speaker 1: a point where we'll wait and see on the data 360 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:11,199 Speaker 1: as far as the outlook goes. You know, I know 361 00:21:11,320 --> 00:21:13,960 Speaker 1: recession is certainly on a lot of people's minds. It's 362 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:18,119 Speaker 1: certainly a discussion point for US internally. Um, that's not 363 00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:20,400 Speaker 1: our base case at the moment, I would say we're 364 00:21:20,400 --> 00:21:23,640 Speaker 1: more in the stagflation camp, where we think inflation will 365 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,639 Speaker 1: remain stubbornly high. It may come off of eight and 366 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:29,840 Speaker 1: a half percent, but it will remain high. And then 367 00:21:29,880 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 1: you have a consumer having this negative wealth effect, and 368 00:21:33,960 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 1: so we think growth is slowing. It's gonna it's gonna 369 00:21:36,680 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 1: slow dramatically in our minds in the second half of 370 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:44,960 Speaker 1: this year. So UM, I wonder what what you're telling then, investors? 371 00:21:44,960 --> 00:21:50,800 Speaker 1: I mean, you have what two billion in assets under management. UM. 372 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,520 Speaker 1: You've seen obviously market pullbacks of the past, but they're 373 00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: different from this, right, this is UH fiscal a monetary 374 00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:03,639 Speaker 1: stimulus driven UM issue. How to investors in fixed income 375 00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 1: deal with that? Sure? UM, you know, for sure taking 376 00:22:08,840 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: on higher quality, more liquid risk to us makes sense, 377 00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:16,199 Speaker 1: particularly in the front end. We think that credit spreads 378 00:22:16,200 --> 00:22:19,320 Speaker 1: and rates have repriced enough where you can start to 379 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:22,480 Speaker 1: dip your toes in and and earn carry to help 380 00:22:22,560 --> 00:22:27,119 Speaker 1: protect you in the event that rates do rise further. UM. 381 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,520 Speaker 1: The other area where we've really been focused on our 382 00:22:29,560 --> 00:22:33,200 Speaker 1: story bonds bonds that have a catalyst, for example, rising 383 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: stars UM bonds that perhaps you know are a bit 384 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:42,480 Speaker 1: more UM immune to this rising rate environment. Um, you 385 00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:46,080 Speaker 1: know that would be non cyclical sectors, So we think 386 00:22:46,119 --> 00:22:49,240 Speaker 1: there's reason for the point defense here. But there are 387 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:53,760 Speaker 1: opportunities and dislocations that we see that can benefit our 388 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:58,600 Speaker 1: client's portfolios. So in the corporate sector, are there sectors 389 00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,879 Speaker 1: that you guys like at the moment um? You know, 390 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:04,919 Speaker 1: some people suggested, you know, healthcare or you know some 391 00:23:05,000 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 1: of the real tried and true areas of technology, whether 392 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:11,080 Speaker 1: maybe some exposures to the cloud or cybersecurity, and think 393 00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,480 Speaker 1: things like that. How do you guys think about the 394 00:23:13,480 --> 00:23:18,679 Speaker 1: corporate space? Shut high quality, single A and and better 395 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:22,520 Speaker 1: offers what's perceived to be safe spread. The challenge with 396 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 1: that though is M and A and we think that 397 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,200 Speaker 1: you know, as valuations, asn't mentioned before, become cheaper, particularly 398 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:33,399 Speaker 1: in equities, companies will be more prone to to level 399 00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:37,480 Speaker 1: up and perhaps um issue additional debt at concessions and 400 00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:40,399 Speaker 1: hurt us as bond holders. We prefer to be buying 401 00:23:40,440 --> 00:23:43,720 Speaker 1: these companies after the downgrade, after the event takes place, 402 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: and we think we can get them at cheaper levels. 403 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 1: So we're we're really not favorable on on healthcare and 404 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,959 Speaker 1: tech from an event risk perspective, and in fact we're 405 00:23:53,040 --> 00:23:56,359 Speaker 1: underweight in those two sectors. What we like at the 406 00:23:56,440 --> 00:24:01,320 Speaker 1: moment is high quality, highly liquid front end on We 407 00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: think that those offer value here and they also insulate 408 00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,840 Speaker 1: us a bit from event risk. And I'm talking more 409 00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:11,440 Speaker 1: particularly in front end banks that don't have this type 410 00:24:11,480 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: of event risk, and we'll benefit from a rising rate environment. 411 00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:21,199 Speaker 1: By the way, before you ran investment grade credit at 412 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:25,360 Speaker 1: Aberdeen and distressed dead at RBS, you went to Penn State. Dan, 413 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:29,240 Speaker 1: I've happy as well, happy value. Is it beaver Stadium? 414 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:33,919 Speaker 1: Is there any chance, uh, you know, this year looking 415 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:35,800 Speaker 1: forward to for example, when you when you get to 416 00:24:35,800 --> 00:24:37,520 Speaker 1: play the Ohio State buck Eyes, is it going to 417 00:24:37,560 --> 00:24:40,159 Speaker 1: be super depressing? Is there any reason to believe in 418 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: Penn State? We we support them in thick and thin, 419 00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,360 Speaker 1: for sure. The Nitney lines always come out and leave 420 00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,960 Speaker 1: their heart on the fields. And yeah they lost a 421 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,479 Speaker 1: lot of players last season, but we'll we'll still support 422 00:24:54,520 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 1: them and think that the rising stars will all right. 423 00:24:57,960 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 1: Good stuff, Big fan to Jason Green, the senior portfolio 424 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 1: manager American Century Investments. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg 425 00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 1: Markets podcast. You can subscribe and listen to interviews with 426 00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 1: Apple podcasts, or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. 427 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at Matt Miller three. Put on fall 428 00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,800 Speaker 1: Sweeney I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, 429 00:25:20,840 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio