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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: We are still the most popular supports betting podcast in

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Speaker 1: America as we head into the final week of twenty one.

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Speaker 1: I am Shad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: It is Tuesday, Week seventeen is upon us two weeks

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Speaker 1: left in the regular season, two weeks to make big

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Speaker 1: money off of many, many games. I am joined by

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Speaker 1: my co host, my bff, my companion, my compadre, Diamond

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Speaker 1: Hunter Professional Better. My brother Dad Rome was there, buddy.

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Speaker 1: We're almost through the holiday season. People are people are

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Speaker 1: asking me, you guys taking off no days off chat.

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Speaker 1: There is no holiday break for me and you. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna pla right on through what we got left two

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Speaker 1: months about. It's uh yeah, forget that noise. It's definitely

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Speaker 1: this is one of my favorite times a year because

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Speaker 1: all the games, like playoff games and this past weekend

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Speaker 1: those were fun games. A lot of those games are

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Speaker 1: so competitive, so I mean people are complaining like ugly

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Speaker 1: and stopping these games are These are cold winner games.

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Speaker 1: I mean, people are gonna run it. People can't catch

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Speaker 1: the ball, their hands are frozen. I love it. I

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Speaker 1: love this time of your specially with its football weather.

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie to you, though I think I

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Speaker 1: mentioned this last week. It feels like this has been

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Speaker 1: an endless season. And I very specifically watched less football

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Speaker 1: from Thursday to Monday. Then I've watched and I don't

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Speaker 1: know how long. Honestly, that Thursday game feels like it

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Speaker 1: might as well have been between the was the Niners

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Speaker 1: and the Titans, might as well have been a year ago.

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Speaker 1: We love that the Titans in that one. We won

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Speaker 1: that game. Didn't watch a minute of it. On Saturday,

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Speaker 1: we didn't talk aggressively about the Packers and the Browns.

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Speaker 1: We did end up betting, which I forgot to put

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Speaker 1: in the Phase five in the Action Network gap. I

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Speaker 1: did put our other four games in there. We ended

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Speaker 1: up betting the Cardinals. I'm glad we didn't tell anyone

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Speaker 1: because they were lost. But I didn't watch either of

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Speaker 1: those games. And then Sunday, like I was in and out. Monday,

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Speaker 1: I didn't watch a single game. I didn't watch the

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Speaker 1: game Yeah, I feel like that was the least pro

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Speaker 1: thing Chad's ever said on my show. I'm like Chad,

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Speaker 1: I enjoyed the whole weekend, all the games. I love

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Speaker 1: this time of year. I get it the season is

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Speaker 1: long to non professionals, but the pros these are the

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Speaker 1: best days. I mean, other it. It wasn't for COVID,

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Speaker 1: these would be my biggest bets, most of my most

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Speaker 1: money put out of these kind of weeks. But we

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Speaker 1: talked about with COVID, it's just so much unknown. A

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Speaker 1: couple of our big bets hit last week. I know

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Speaker 1: you didn't love the Rams, but my Simon says, I

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Speaker 1: was all over the Rams and that was one of

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Speaker 1: those that nothing changed even with the minus through I

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Speaker 1: still took the number. Matthew Stafford, I think through three

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Speaker 1: interceptions we still covered just because Kirk Cousins that bad

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Speaker 1: in a big spot. So that was nice. Your scruture

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Speaker 1: let pick came through in the Chiefs, which was one

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Speaker 1: of my bigger bets too. Unfortunately, under we got backdoored

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Speaker 1: in the last two minutes. That was brutal. Yeah, the

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Speaker 1: Dolphins that that was one of my bigger bets of

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Speaker 1: the whole weekend was the Dolphins plus three plus three

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Speaker 1: and a half their money line and the under, and

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Speaker 1: I think the under mooved by seven points and the

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Speaker 1: side moved by seven points. So I looked at it

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Speaker 1: for a while. I was like, should I take the

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Speaker 1: other side and try to hit this middle? But luckily

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Speaker 1: I just didn't do it because my whole my whole

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Speaker 1: thinking was is this was already a scheduled boss for

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Speaker 1: the Saints. This was a trap game after such a

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Speaker 1: big win the previous week and the fact that this

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Speaker 1: quarterback has never taken an NFL snap before. He's either

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Speaker 1: gonna go two ways. Either he's gonna be incredible and

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Speaker 1: had the game of his life and then never play

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Speaker 1: another game in the NFL or using Nathan Peter minute,

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Speaker 1: which is what he did, which is he's a train wreck.

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Speaker 1: He's either getting sacked or throwing a pick. And people

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Speaker 1: complained about that game like that was like one of

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Speaker 1: the worst games of the year, not if you had

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Speaker 1: the Dolphins ticking an under bed. That was probably my

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Speaker 1: favorite games of the year. So it was an ugly weekend.

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Speaker 1: I told you when my biggest bets was the Bears

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Speaker 1: money line. They were down seven two minutes to go.

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Speaker 1: My man Nick Foles drove the field in the snow

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Speaker 1: and got the two point conversion for the our right win.

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Speaker 1: So that was nice I needed, though It's just because

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Speaker 1: I lost pretty big on the Cardinals, which I know

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Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell was just laughing at us. He he must

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Speaker 1: have just been thinking himself, these frauds, These frauds. I

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Speaker 1: tell them all the time to fake Cliff, and we

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Speaker 1: walked right into it. That Carolina bet. That that to

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Speaker 1: me is one of my worst. That's the entire year

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Speaker 1: Carolina is running. I don't know describe. It's like a

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Speaker 1: two Q QB system, but both the QB suck like

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Speaker 1: I feel like every time I checked that Panthers game,

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Speaker 1: it was three and completes in a row by Sam Donald.

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Speaker 1: Then they're bringing in Cam Newton to go three and

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Speaker 1: completes in a row, their head coaches saying jay Z

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Speaker 1: took seven years to become famous who knows what after

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Speaker 1: the game. So that was probably one of my probably

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Speaker 1: my third second biggest amount of money I bet last week.

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Speaker 1: It was Carolina and it felt it was like it

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Speaker 1: was dead within five minutes of that game starting. So

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Speaker 1: it was a good weekend, but it had a lot

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Speaker 1: of bad in until that was terrible. We ended up

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Speaker 1: going three and two on the week I mentioned the

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Speaker 1: Cardinals we lost that we lost the Panthers our final

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Speaker 1: five which other than the Cardinals, you can track reminder

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Speaker 1: in the Free Action Network app follow the phaves five

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Speaker 1: handles very easy to find. We like the Bills plus

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Speaker 1: two and a half at it and a pretty smart.

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Speaker 1: We like Kansas City minus seven and a half, and

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Speaker 1: we like Miami plus three. Again a lot of these lines.

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Speaker 1: I get a lot of feedback this weekend, like as

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Speaker 1: if people aren't listening, we will talk about the best

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Speaker 1: that we like today with the lines as they are

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Speaker 1: right now. We will talk about best that we like

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Speaker 1: on Thursday, with the lines as they are on Thursday

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Speaker 1: on Sunday. This is the way the contest we are

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Speaker 1: in works like they locked their lines on Tuesday or Wednesday,

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Speaker 1: but we don't have to make our decisions until Sunday.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of times we are making our our

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Speaker 1: decisions based on the closing line value. Miami was at

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Speaker 1: three and a half in the contest, closed to three

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Speaker 1: and a half as a favorite. Of course, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: take Miami like Kansas City was at seven and a

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Speaker 1: half in the contest and was closing a ten and

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Speaker 1: a half, so we liked Kansas City, like, that's just

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. You can't get mad at us because we're

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Speaker 1: playing the game that's presented to us and on the

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Speaker 1: deadline that's presented to us, and that we do a

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Speaker 1: literally a free podcast where Chad makes me give you

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Speaker 1: my best bets on a Tuesday. If I said I'm

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Speaker 1: betting Kansas City on a Tuesday, if I said I'm

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Speaker 1: betting the Rams as one of my favorite bets on

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Speaker 1: a Tuesday, we're betting, I might buy out, and it's

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Speaker 1: very rare. I do buy out. But if something crazy

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Speaker 1: happens where I'm betting big on Baltimore and then all

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Speaker 1: of a sudden the Ravens are down to their third

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Speaker 1: string or fourth string quarterback, yeah I'm gonna buy out

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Speaker 1: and probably change my position on Baltimore. This week, nothing

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Speaker 1: really changed. I mean, we were in on Miami. I

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Speaker 1: was still in on Miami. Unfortunately, we did our Thursday

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Speaker 1: show and then literally an hour after we posted our show,

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Speaker 1: the news broke that the quarterback was out. Nothing had

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Speaker 1: really changed that we'd still bet Miami and minus one.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, I get why people will complain about stuff.

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Speaker 1: But it's like, we literally do a free show where

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Speaker 1: I'm telling you on Tuesday, where I'm betting two free

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Speaker 1: shows a week. And by the way, also a reminder

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Speaker 1: we do, uh convince me? We had a lot of

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Speaker 1: questions about this. Another reminder convinced me is the show

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Speaker 1: that we do on Sunday mornings at Action Network h

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Speaker 1: Q eleven a m Eastern. It's also on Action Network's

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Speaker 1: YouTube page. Had a lot of viewers on YouTube this week.

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Speaker 1: I think it's because I remind people that's what I'm assuming.

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Speaker 1: It's not a podcast. It's a show you can watch

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Action Network HQ. It's live stays up

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Speaker 1: through that the Sunday, or you can watch it on

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Speaker 1: Action Network YouTube page. That's when you get the most

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Speaker 1: up to date information because we're doing the show at

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Speaker 1: eleven am, and that's what we're talking about things as

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Speaker 1: they exist in the moment. All right, simon week this week, sixteen,

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Speaker 1: Week Week seventeen, No no more Thursday night football games.

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Speaker 1: I gotta watch amateur league college football. Well I don't

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Speaker 1: watch football anymore, so well, the rest of us that

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Speaker 1: have no lives still though. Meanwhile, the Buccaneers are going

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Speaker 1: on the road after beating up the Panthers that we

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Speaker 1: thought it would be sort of a come down game

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Speaker 1: for the Box. They're now thirteen and a half point

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Speaker 1: favorites against the Jets. It's one of those spots where

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Speaker 1: already the bets are coming into the Box huge favorite

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Speaker 1: on the road. Getting that kind of percentage would normally

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Speaker 1: say you take the Jets. It's still do I hate it,

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Speaker 1: but we have to. Another thing I love about doing

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Speaker 1: the show with you Chat is seeing our fan base

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Speaker 1: learn and grow from different things and even little things

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Speaker 1: me and you might miss or you know, we weren't

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Speaker 1: on Houston because in our contest Houston was only plus

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Speaker 1: nine and a half, where the live line was up

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Speaker 1: to four team. Tons of messages about all these fans

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Speaker 1: of our show saying his Simon, all these little red

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Speaker 1: flags you mentioned are popping up with this Houston team.

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Speaker 1: All the money's coming in on the Chargers. They're on

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Speaker 1: the road. The line had moved up, now it's coming

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Speaker 1: back down. Should we take Houston? And I was like,

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Speaker 1: I'll take Houston, but I'm not taking their money line.

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Speaker 1: I was like, there's no way they're gonna win without Cooks.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't matter. Did not matter. Cooks was apparently irrelevant.

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Speaker 1: They have Rex Burke head who's gonna run for hundreds

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Speaker 1: of hundreds of yards and two touchdowns. So that was

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Speaker 1: a great read by our fans taking Houston's money line.

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Speaker 1: I think they got plus five hundred. Wish I had

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Speaker 1: done that. That was that was a great bet by

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Speaker 1: them for this matchup. Everything you just said's true. We

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Speaker 1: take the Jets here the Buccaneers, they're a great team.

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Speaker 1: We know Tom Brady dominates rookies. The Jets are coming

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Speaker 1: off the big win. Well, they're at home and we're

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Speaker 1: playing We're going to get to the Buccaneers team. That Again,

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Speaker 1: that game last week was more about Carolina. Carolina just

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Speaker 1: could not get anything going. I think they put up

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Speaker 1: what six points against this Buccaneers team that they've just

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Speaker 1: lost Shaq Barrett now that d line. So the injuries

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Speaker 1: keep mounting. I know Antonio Brown came back last week.

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Speaker 1: He looked great for that Buccaneers team. You really helped

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Speaker 1: care of that offense. But to me, at fifteen points whatever,

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Speaker 1: this might be thirteen and a half points. Whatever you

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Speaker 1: can get, you take the Jets here. It's like the

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Speaker 1: Chief two inflated of a line. So I don't know

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Speaker 1: if this will be one of our five, but I

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Speaker 1: bet this when I hit fourteen, I'm seeing it now

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Speaker 1: back down the thirteen and a half. It's some books,

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Speaker 1: but some books have it up to fifteen. So I

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Speaker 1: would chop around to this number. If you can get

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Speaker 1: above a fourteen, I would take this number ugly but right.

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Speaker 1: And I was wondering the same thing on Sunday, like,

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Speaker 1: I can't believe we didn't go bigger on the Texans

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Speaker 1: given all the signals that were sort of flintering up

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Speaker 1: in that direction. This next game is is one of

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Speaker 1: the most interesting games on the board. The Chiefs are

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Speaker 1: visiting the Bengals. Bengals off of this huge, huge win,

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Speaker 1: this statement game, Joe Burrow, fuck you that you're not

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Speaker 1: giving me the gold jacket. I'm gonna throw for five

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Speaker 1: five yards on you and the Chiefs, who, finally the

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks have actually been covering relatively big

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Speaker 1: numbers and that was a smash spot. We love the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: Last week against Steelers, the Chiefs are five point favorites

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Speaker 1: on the road. My first instinct here, you bet the

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Speaker 1: Bengals five and a half right now? But is that

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Speaker 1: a leftdown spot? Are the Chiefs in a better position,

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Speaker 1: are they getting healthier? Are they really the dominant team now? Tricky?

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Speaker 1: I don't want to am I am? I out thinking myself? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I'm right there with you. When I first saw

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Speaker 1: this at seven and a half last week, I was like, Wow,

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Speaker 1: that's a great number to take that Bengals team that

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Speaker 1: and to me, I forget a few better with us.

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Speaker 1: But the plus a thousand Bengals to win this division,

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Speaker 1: it's mine is two fifty now. So you're looking for

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Speaker 1: opportunities to hedge. You don't need to do it this week.

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Speaker 1: It seems like if it's gonna come down to the

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Speaker 1: Browns and the Bengals next week, So we'll deal with

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Speaker 1: that next week, hedging that out. But for this week

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Speaker 1: with the Bengals, I hate to do it, but I

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Speaker 1: gotta I gotta take I gotta take the Chiefs. When

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Speaker 1: I look at this matchup, I love what Joe is doing.

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Speaker 1: I love all the field, good story, everything about them

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Speaker 1: right now. But it's late December and he just beat

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Speaker 1: a backup quarterback on a banged up Ravens team. Now

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Speaker 1: he's gonna going against my Homes and this Chiefs team

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Speaker 1: that they've been here before. This is what we talked

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Speaker 1: about earlier in the year. We could all bash and

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Speaker 1: talk all the ship we want about the Chiefs. My

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Speaker 1: home has only ever lost a one quarterback in the

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Speaker 1: playoffs and that's Tom Brady. Okay, this this man, if

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Speaker 1: he gets to January, if he gets to February, I'm

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Speaker 1: always gonna back my Homes unless he's going against Tom Brady.

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Speaker 1: So looking at this matchup, this is a playoff football game.

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Speaker 1: This is literally for the number one seat for the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs team. Cannot see them let down here. You can

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Speaker 1: see a big letdown spot from this Bangals team where

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Speaker 1: they're looking ahead to next week. They know next week's

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Speaker 1: the game they need to win. Then that's the game

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Speaker 1: for the division. So I'm with you, first gliance. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: I like these points. I'm gonna take these points. But

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Speaker 1: the fact that Pros have already bet it down, they've

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Speaker 1: moved across the key number. As long as the stays

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00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:21,280
Speaker 1: blows six, I'll be taking the Chiefs. Isn't it interesting? Though,

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Speaker 1: because everything about this from a precedent signals perspective says,

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Speaker 1: you take the bangalses. I mean, where's the money that

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00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,120
Speaker 1: tickets coming in early right now? Because that's I forget

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00:14:32,160 --> 00:14:33,920
Speaker 1: to mention this last show, this time of year. A

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00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 1: lot of this money bet right now is pro money. Okay,

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00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:39,080
Speaker 1: the public they've spent their money on Christmas or they've

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00:14:39,120 --> 00:14:41,760
Speaker 1: already lost all their money by now. So that's why

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Speaker 1: I like hearing from chat with the number is right

295
00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 1: now at this time of year, because early money, early bets,

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00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:48,760
Speaker 1: it's gonna be pro money. It's not gonna be the public.

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Speaker 1: Pro money right now is on the Bengals right because

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00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:53,280
Speaker 1: again that was at seven a half, so that makes

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00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:55,920
Speaker 1: sense they bet it down. But um, we'll see, maybe

300
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Speaker 1: we'll get a better number. I still like the Chiefs

301
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Speaker 1: below six, the Raiders on the road at the Colts

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00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:08,320
Speaker 1: they are. I'm getting some weird numbers here. Just can't

303
00:15:08,320 --> 00:15:11,240
Speaker 1: be right. That's right. Carson Wentz just got put on

304
00:15:11,280 --> 00:15:16,560
Speaker 1: the COVID list. Uh like, my phone's blown up right

305
00:15:16,560 --> 00:15:19,080
Speaker 1: now because that happened literally five minutes before we came on.

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00:15:19,680 --> 00:15:21,600
Speaker 1: Well fuck, I mean used to be able to get

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Speaker 1: the Raiders at a huge number and now it's completely down.

308
00:15:24,840 --> 00:15:26,240
Speaker 1: So I mean I got I got a little money

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00:15:26,280 --> 00:15:28,000
Speaker 1: down on it, but all the books pretty much took

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00:15:28,040 --> 00:15:30,920
Speaker 1: it off right before we came on. All right, Well,

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00:15:30,960 --> 00:15:33,560
Speaker 1: if Carson Wentz is on the COVID list, then what

312
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:35,360
Speaker 1: do we think of the Colts is a very short

313
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:39,200
Speaker 1: home favorite against the Raiders, still smashing the Colts, Raiders

314
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:42,320
Speaker 1: coming off a win. They're terrible against the run. The

315
00:15:42,320 --> 00:15:44,400
Speaker 1: Cult should have all their offensive linemen back off the

316
00:15:44,440 --> 00:15:47,200
Speaker 1: COVID list. Wait, wait, wait and see. We'll see where

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00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,560
Speaker 1: this number ends up. Just because you just saw Carson

318
00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,120
Speaker 1: Wentz is out, they're gonna be starting a rookie quarterback.

319
00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:54,080
Speaker 1: Now the public is gonna come in and really head

320
00:15:54,080 --> 00:15:56,320
Speaker 1: you on this Raiders game. So you like the Raiders

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00:15:56,360 --> 00:15:58,680
Speaker 1: and you hear this show, you can still get a five.

322
00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:01,240
Speaker 1: Maybe you take that, And if you like the Colts

323
00:16:01,240 --> 00:16:03,280
Speaker 1: like I do, I'll just wait. I think I'll get

324
00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:05,320
Speaker 1: down to three and I'll just take that number. It's

325
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,280
Speaker 1: obviously not ideal this Colts team. For all the ship

326
00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:10,360
Speaker 1: we talked about Carson Wentz, I think he has twenty

327
00:16:10,360 --> 00:16:14,200
Speaker 1: four touchdowns the six interceptions he's been all right. He

328
00:16:14,280 --> 00:16:16,440
Speaker 1: has moments of brilliance and he has moments where he

329
00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:19,200
Speaker 1: does the dumbest shit ever. I don't know if I

330
00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:20,960
Speaker 1: can trust his rookie enough to make it one of

331
00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:24,240
Speaker 1: our five. But just looking at the matchup wise, everything

332
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,360
Speaker 1: matches up really well for this Colts team. And we

333
00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:28,480
Speaker 1: also don't know if Winner's gonna back to this Colts defense,

334
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:30,880
Speaker 1: which is a big deal too. So for me, there's

335
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,000
Speaker 1: just too much unknown on Tuesday really give out either

336
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,920
Speaker 1: side on this Colts number. Yeah, I agree. Also, Carson

337
00:16:36,960 --> 00:16:39,760
Speaker 1: with might only have six interceptions, but they seem to

338
00:16:39,840 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 1: come at the time where they might as well be

339
00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:46,239
Speaker 1: twenty four interceptions. Now, yes, he's had like ten drop picks.

340
00:16:46,040 --> 00:16:48,240
Speaker 1: He's been very lucky this year. But it's just funny

341
00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:52,280
Speaker 1: looking on paper, he's having statistically a good year. The

342
00:16:52,360 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 1: Eagles are visiting the Washington football team. The Eagles are

343
00:16:55,920 --> 00:17:00,400
Speaker 1: flying high. They're three and a half point favorite on

344
00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:04,399
Speaker 1: the road against a Washington football team who's play on

345
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:07,080
Speaker 1: the field and morale on the sideline is starting to

346
00:17:07,160 --> 00:17:11,639
Speaker 1: reflect the dysfunction of the ownership, Like this team is

347
00:17:12,760 --> 00:17:18,200
Speaker 1: a train wreck. That game on Sunday night was terrible.

348
00:17:18,840 --> 00:17:24,040
Speaker 1: Another game I didn't watch then again over reaction. Yea,

349
00:17:24,800 --> 00:17:28,160
Speaker 1: let's go baby God in bed Washington football team Foxhole

350
00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:38,159
Speaker 1: where the fossil let's clide down into the foxhole. I

351
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,480
Speaker 1: love it. I knew everyone's gonna hate this one. That's

352
00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:42,480
Speaker 1: why it's Immediately I saw this line, I was like, Okay,

353
00:17:42,480 --> 00:17:45,040
Speaker 1: this is probably about Foxhold. But because there might be

354
00:17:45,119 --> 00:17:47,000
Speaker 1: only four of us getting down to this foxhole and

355
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 1: fighting off the Germans here, it's a bad number for

356
00:17:49,880 --> 00:17:52,760
Speaker 1: a bad team. You're never gonna get the Eagles at

357
00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,679
Speaker 1: a higher point in the season. I mean, if you

358
00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:58,159
Speaker 1: hate this number, if you really do, just fade the

359
00:17:58,160 --> 00:18:01,280
Speaker 1: Eagles first half. They've been of the worst teams in

360
00:18:01,320 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 1: the first half this season. So this is the number.

361
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:06,479
Speaker 1: I bet early. It moved against me and moved from

362
00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:08,720
Speaker 1: three and a half up to four. I bet it again.

363
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,560
Speaker 1: I'll be all over Washington this week. It's just simply

364
00:18:11,600 --> 00:18:14,480
Speaker 1: a matchup and number based kind of thing where the

365
00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,320
Speaker 1: Eagles just had one of their biggest ones of the season.

366
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,000
Speaker 1: Now they're going on the road to play a team

367
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:21,560
Speaker 1: that just got blown out in a primetime game. We

368
00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,320
Speaker 1: love this number every time. The only reason I'm not

369
00:18:23,320 --> 00:18:25,159
Speaker 1: putting more money on. It's just because of COVID stuff,

370
00:18:25,200 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 1: but it feels like Washington football teams had every player

371
00:18:27,840 --> 00:18:30,120
Speaker 1: of their teams that COVID, so we should be good.

372
00:18:30,160 --> 00:18:32,240
Speaker 1: So I'm den it. I'm not gonna say there's a

373
00:18:32,240 --> 00:18:34,040
Speaker 1: hard percent chances to be one of our five. But

374
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Speaker 1: this is a game that it's probably my highest or

375
00:18:38,840 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 1: second highest PEC game right now this week. So I

376
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:46,120
Speaker 1: really love this Washington spot wow that much. Yeah, it's

377
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:50,080
Speaker 1: just a classic divisional game late in the year. People

378
00:18:50,119 --> 00:18:51,880
Speaker 1: are just out on this Washington team. They think they're

379
00:18:51,880 --> 00:18:54,800
Speaker 1: absolutely terrible. I mean, they just got what was the

380
00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 1: fifty six points they gave up to this Couboys team,

381
00:18:57,200 --> 00:18:59,720
Speaker 1: So I get it. I get why they're so ain't on.

382
00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,840
Speaker 1: They don't want to bet this theme, but that's why

383
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,160
Speaker 1: you have to bet it. If there are as bad

384
00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 1: as people think they are. Wise in this number seven.

385
00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:08,120
Speaker 1: Obviously the bookmakers know what they're doing making this that low,

386
00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,520
Speaker 1: trying to get that Eagles money coming in. Each win

387
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,000
Speaker 1: means even more in the college football playoffs. That's why

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Speaker 1: to make it to the final. Right now, I like

393
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:33,920
Speaker 1: Michigan against Georgia as seven and a half point underdogs.

394
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Speaker 1: You can also choose the Cincinnati Alabama game. Alabama is

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Speaker 1: West Virginia. Let's get back to the show. The Ramps

429
00:21:45,080 --> 00:21:49,080
Speaker 1: another team flying high on the road at the Ravens.

430
00:21:49,280 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 1: The Rams are three and a half point favorites. This

431
00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,960
Speaker 1: Ravens team is just impossible to handicap right now. You

432
00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,160
Speaker 1: never know who's gonna be playing. Yeah, what the hell

433
00:21:58,160 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 1: do we do with this number? What is this number?

434
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:04,360
Speaker 1: Is Vegas giving us free money? I what the hell?

435
00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:06,480
Speaker 1: Why is this number three and a half? This is

436
00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,080
Speaker 1: the weirdest number of the week. The bookmakers know something

437
00:22:09,160 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 1: or they're all idiots. No clue. Either I take the

438
00:22:12,359 --> 00:22:15,080
Speaker 1: Ravens or I just stay away because this this line stinks.

439
00:22:15,480 --> 00:22:18,560
Speaker 1: Well right now, the it's a Pros Joe's game. Six

440
00:22:18,600 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 1: percent of the bets are on the Rams, of the

441
00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 1: money on the Ravens. But to my point, who's playing

442
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 1: quarterback for the Ravens. It's it's gonna be Lamar. I mean,

443
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 1: the Pros must know something because this line stinks. I

444
00:22:31,359 --> 00:22:33,640
Speaker 1: mean to me, when I when I when I made

445
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:36,359
Speaker 1: this number. If it's Lamar's backup, I made this seven

446
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 1: and a half, and with Lamar, I make them a

447
00:22:39,600 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 1: minus one favorite. The Ravens. That's how big of a

448
00:22:41,760 --> 00:22:43,919
Speaker 1: difference is between him and the third string quarterback. So

449
00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:47,600
Speaker 1: that's eight points of line movement. They just opened this

450
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:49,480
Speaker 1: up right and then between they're just saying, you know what,

451
00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,800
Speaker 1: We'll let the professionals make a decision for us. Clearly

452
00:22:52,800 --> 00:22:54,520
Speaker 1: you just said the pros have made their decision. They're

453
00:22:54,560 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 1: coming in on the Ravens. So like I said, I'm

454
00:22:57,320 --> 00:22:59,120
Speaker 1: either gonna bet the Ravens or I'm not gonna bet

455
00:22:59,160 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: either set or bet not better side. So we'll see

456
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: if we have more Monday, more info on Thursday. But

457
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:08,200
Speaker 1: you love matchup wise, you love everything this offense can

458
00:23:08,200 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 1: do with the Ravens against this defense that the Rams have.

459
00:23:11,800 --> 00:23:14,960
Speaker 1: The biggest scary part is they might have the worst

460
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,359
Speaker 1: secondary and football right now. The Ravens with injuries, they

461
00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:21,719
Speaker 1: just they're down to fourth, fifth, six stringers starting right

462
00:23:21,760 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: now for them. So we we know that's where Stafford shines.

463
00:23:24,880 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 1: But again, Stafford on the road outdoors, I want to

464
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,920
Speaker 1: take the Ravens so bad in this position. Again, he

465
00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 1: threw three interceptions last week and they won by seven.

466
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:37,880
Speaker 1: I just cannot see him getting away with that kind

467
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,360
Speaker 1: of playing style against Lamar and this Ravens team at home.

468
00:23:41,280 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 1: This COVID is fucking everything up. I fucking hate it.

469
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: I can't wait until next year. I feel like by

470
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,520
Speaker 1: next year we're gonna finally have a normal football season.

471
00:23:50,040 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 1: We'll see thinking thinking, I don't think normal is going

472
00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:58,480
Speaker 1: to be redefined? Is the thing you and your you liberals,

473
00:23:59,560 --> 00:24:02,919
Speaker 1: Jesus Christ. I hate that saying you gotta rethink normal.

474
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 1: Normal is never gonna be normal. Goddamn you. Well, it's

475
00:24:07,040 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: the fucking truth. I hate that saying so much though.

476
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:13,880
Speaker 1: It is what it is, Hardy, what do you think

477
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 1: of that it is what it is? Well? I remember

478
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,240
Speaker 1: talking to you in nineteen was it eighteen when the

479
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 1: Spanish flew it. You said, it's Simon, it's never gonna

480
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,400
Speaker 1: be the same, Dad. It came back to normal, Okay,

481
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:29,400
Speaker 1: so eventually we'll get there. Also, listen, it wasn't exactly

482
00:24:29,440 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 1: normal after the Spanish flu. A lot of stuff changed.

483
00:24:33,440 --> 00:24:36,680
Speaker 1: Couple of world wars. The Falcons are on the road

484
00:24:36,920 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 1: visiting the Buffalo Bills, the resurgent Bills, the dominant Bills,

485
00:24:41,480 --> 00:24:43,480
Speaker 1: the Bills who are on their way to clinching the

486
00:24:43,520 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: a f C East. When everyone thought the Patriots were

487
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:48,600
Speaker 1: about to meet Tom Brady and the Super Bowl. Their

488
00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,680
Speaker 1: fourteen or a half point favorites. This number is too big.

489
00:24:52,560 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: I know. I hate it, Like I'm so glad you

490
00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:56,600
Speaker 1: said that, because I thought you're gonna be like, don't

491
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:59,679
Speaker 1: make me fucking do it, but we have to do it.

492
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:02,359
Speaker 1: We had to take Atlanta too many points. I made

493
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,719
Speaker 1: this game twelve upt the fourteen and a half at

494
00:25:04,720 --> 00:25:07,439
Speaker 1: certain books four team. I believe the fan duel. I

495
00:25:07,440 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: don't know. I think maybe they're looking at they're saying

496
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:12,520
Speaker 1: the matchups with Atlanta, they've just been blown out by

497
00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:15,200
Speaker 1: good teams. They beat up bad teams. That's fair. I mean,

498
00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,520
Speaker 1: teams are what they are. This is week's seventeen. Nothing's

499
00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:20,600
Speaker 1: really gonna change. Teams just simply are what they are.

500
00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:23,920
Speaker 1: So to me, I don't really get the line. That's

501
00:25:23,920 --> 00:25:25,920
Speaker 1: maybe what scared me off a little bit because it

502
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:29,120
Speaker 1: was eight and a half. The Bills win that game

503
00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:31,800
Speaker 1: against the Patriots. Josh Allen looks great, and now it's

504
00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 1: shot up six and a half points. Makes no sense,

505
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,679
Speaker 1: doesn't really doesn't make sense. So that's I'm gonna get

506
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 1: talk to other professionals and see what they're saying about

507
00:25:39,680 --> 00:25:42,400
Speaker 1: this game, but I see no reason why you don't

508
00:25:42,400 --> 00:25:44,679
Speaker 1: take Atlanta. You take those free points they're giving. The

509
00:25:44,680 --> 00:25:47,280
Speaker 1: line just moved way too much. But we talked about

510
00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 1: that Bills New England game. That felt like that was

511
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,879
Speaker 1: a scheduled winning for that Bills team. We knew they

512
00:25:50,880 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: were the better team. We knew him Mac was gonna

513
00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 1: eventually regress because he's a rookie, and that it's the

514
00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: extended season not helping these rookie quarterbacks there. This is literally,

515
00:25:59,600 --> 00:26:01,440
Speaker 1: this is when they kind of fall apart. These defenses

516
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 1: have them figured out. So this Bill's team, they're legit.

517
00:26:04,840 --> 00:26:06,879
Speaker 1: Josh Town looks really good. He's playing the best he

518
00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 1: has all year heading into the playoffs. But against a

519
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,680
Speaker 1: veteran quarterback and Matt Matt Ryan and again Atlanta's offense

520
00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:15,840
Speaker 1: when they have the peace of mcquitel, Pattersons playing and

521
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: Kyle Pitts is there, they make plays. They keep these

522
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,760
Speaker 1: games competitive. So I'll take that number, but I need

523
00:26:21,760 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 1: to talk to other pros before I really put a

524
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:24,920
Speaker 1: lot of money on it. Well, it's interesting because in

525
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:28,320
Speaker 1: the next game, the Jaguars are playing the Patriots. They

526
00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: are anywhere from fourteen and a half to sixteen point

527
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:38,320
Speaker 1: favorites the Patriots are also feels like way too big

528
00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:45,359
Speaker 1: of a number. Actually pet the Patriots right when this open. Yeah,

529
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,520
Speaker 1: this is more a bet about Bill Bill Bill Belichick

530
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,720
Speaker 1: first rookie quarterbacks, he just covers against them. I don't

531
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: even look at the number, honestly. As soon as I

532
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: see it's Bill versus rookie, I just bet it because

533
00:26:56,240 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: historically he does really well. I mean this year he

534
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:04,600
Speaker 1: didn't cover against Houston, and I believe you covered twice

535
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 1: against the Jets with Zach Wilson and the other kid

536
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,479
Speaker 1: that started for them. So I'm trying to think off

537
00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,159
Speaker 1: that I have these other rookies play this year, but

538
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 1: just historically, his defense, his scheme, it's the best. It's

539
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,080
Speaker 1: just so good that these he just throws things. These

540
00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,199
Speaker 1: rookies haven't seen the fact that we have all this

541
00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:22,480
Speaker 1: tape at this point in the season. On Trevor Lawrence,

542
00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 1: I know it's scaring you off. It's a huge number,

543
00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 1: and like the prom me wants to tell you a

544
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,959
Speaker 1: ticular side, but I take big spreads. It's like with

545
00:27:29,359 --> 00:27:31,119
Speaker 1: the Chiefs last week. I was telling people take them

546
00:27:31,119 --> 00:27:33,359
Speaker 1: in my stand a half if there's a opportunity there,

547
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 1: and I think this number is still a little short,

548
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:37,959
Speaker 1: I'll take that number. So to me, as long as

549
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 1: this number stays on our seventeen seventeen a half, I'm

550
00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:45,359
Speaker 1: gonna take this Patriots team that's disgusting it is. I know,

551
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,080
Speaker 1: I know you're right it so we won't make it

552
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:49,160
Speaker 1: one of my five, but I will be on the Patriots.

553
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 1: This week, you mentioned the Bears. They are hosting the Giants.

554
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:56,000
Speaker 1: The Giants are six and a half point dogs. This

555
00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 1: is a very weird game because the Bears are terrible

556
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,919
Speaker 1: and I'm hoping that Justin Fields is on the shelf

557
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:06,959
Speaker 1: for the rest of the year. The Giants are terrible.

558
00:28:08,200 --> 00:28:11,760
Speaker 1: Mike Glennon doesn't really look like he belongs in the NFL. Uh,

559
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 1: He's at the other end of his career. That Drew

560
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:15,640
Speaker 1: lock is like. Neither of them looked like they should

561
00:28:15,680 --> 00:28:20,399
Speaker 1: be NFL quarterbacks. And six and a half feels like

562
00:28:20,440 --> 00:28:24,199
Speaker 1: a lot of points to be an underdog against the

563
00:28:24,200 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 1: Bears team that just isn't very good. I would agree

564
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,600
Speaker 1: with you in the sense that the Bears are I

565
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,160
Speaker 1: would have to look my pirrat and chief I believe

566
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: I had them at number twenty eight or twenty seven,

567
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:38,240
Speaker 1: that they're one of my worst rated teams. The worst

568
00:28:38,480 --> 00:28:41,160
Speaker 1: are the Giants. They are my lowest rated team right

569
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 1: now in football, and it's simply because of the quarterback position.

570
00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: So I talked to a couple of professionals. They've come

571
00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 1: in on the Giants. They've bet this number. I think

572
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: it wasn't seven. They've better down to six, six and

573
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:53,520
Speaker 1: a half a certain books. I will be on the

574
00:28:53,520 --> 00:28:55,959
Speaker 1: other way. I love the Bears. I'm especially happy if

575
00:28:55,960 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 1: this is Nick Foles. This is why I fucking hate

576
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,320
Speaker 1: Naggie and I can't wait from Aggie before hired. How

577
00:29:01,320 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 1: can he look his owner in the face and say

578
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,800
Speaker 1: I started Any Dalton over Nick Foles all season and

579
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:09,280
Speaker 1: those games like in what world is any dull In?

580
00:29:09,360 --> 00:29:12,280
Speaker 1: A better example or mentor for Justin Fields and Nick

581
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:15,240
Speaker 1: Foles would be Andy Dalton plays that game against the Seahawks.

582
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 1: There's zero chance he drives a field the end of

583
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:19,000
Speaker 1: the game and scores that touchdown. I mean, he just

584
00:29:19,600 --> 00:29:21,680
Speaker 1: the man isn't a winner. He like he is not

585
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 1: a winner. Nick Foles has proven time and time again

586
00:29:24,800 --> 00:29:27,360
Speaker 1: he's a winner and clutch moments the whole playoff run.

587
00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 1: He's just a big time quarterback. So I like the

588
00:29:30,280 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: Bears momentum, them coming home. I like everything about this.

589
00:29:33,720 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: So the pros will be on the Giants. I'm gonna

590
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:36,960
Speaker 1: be on the chalk at home with the Bears as

591
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:39,120
Speaker 1: long as it's Nick Foles and not any Dalton. You

592
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 1: sleep on your team too much, man, Your your guys

593
00:29:41,080 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 1: defense is good? Was it? There's a ro quand about

594
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:45,960
Speaker 1: the break the sacks record? Did he break the Bears sax?

595
00:29:47,080 --> 00:29:51,840
Speaker 1: Robert Quinn crazy like that? So I see the team

596
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 1: playing for someone like him, and I see the team

597
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: playing for a guy like Nick Foles, who he still

598
00:29:55,720 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 1: believes he's a starter. That's why that game was so

599
00:29:57,520 --> 00:29:58,880
Speaker 1: big for him last week. It was a kind of

600
00:29:58,880 --> 00:30:01,560
Speaker 1: a proven game for Nick, showing these other teams he

601
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,000
Speaker 1: still has. So to me, the Giants have quit on

602
00:30:04,040 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 1: their head coach, They've quit in their g M. I

603
00:30:06,440 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 1: see embarrassing. That's resilient. They don't care about Matt nag

604
00:30:09,520 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: I think they're playing for the guys inside that locker room.

605
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 1: So I like these two teams go in different directions

606
00:30:14,440 --> 00:30:15,600
Speaker 1: right now. I like the arrow going up for the

607
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 1: Bears and I like fading this Giants team. I faded

608
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: them last week. Yeah, that first half sucked. I was like,

609
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: why how did I take the Eagles minus ten when

610
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,680
Speaker 1: it was three three? But then Jake from started throwing

611
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: the ball, and then again they don't have a quarterback.

612
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,240
Speaker 1: The Giants literally do not have a quarterback. So to me,

613
00:30:32,320 --> 00:30:34,600
Speaker 1: as long as it stays under seven, I'll take this number.

614
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: You're convincing me. I like that. At the press conference

615
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: this week, Matt Magie was asked if he thought he'd

616
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: be coaching the last two games, and he was basically,

617
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:45,719
Speaker 1: I guess so if he if they don't start interviewing

618
00:30:45,800 --> 00:30:48,320
Speaker 1: coaches though next week, if I was embarrassing, I would

619
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: ride like I would literally, We'll see what these fans

620
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 1: do it the game. They should do some type of

621
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 1: protest against this front office because Naggy cannot keep this job.

622
00:30:57,880 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: This this man, it cannot keep this job. He is

623
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: an awful, awful coach. So we'll see. I feel bad

624
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: for Bears fans. That typical They're gonna win these meaningless

625
00:31:06,680 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 1: games the end of the year, but he just feels

626
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,800
Speaker 1: like scheduled wins like that Seahawks game. We talked about that.

627
00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: Just feel like it was way too many points for

628
00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,640
Speaker 1: two shitty teams. I think that's why the pros are

629
00:31:16,640 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 1: coming on the Giants, because it feels like too many

630
00:31:18,120 --> 00:31:20,800
Speaker 1: points for two shitty teams. But I think this change

631
00:31:20,800 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: of the Q position is what's gonna be a difference here.

632
00:31:23,160 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: I think that Nick Fole is just going to carry

633
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:26,760
Speaker 1: this Bearers team to a victory at the end of

634
00:31:26,760 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 1: the year. Dolphins visiting the Titans, talk about a team

635
00:31:31,920 --> 00:31:35,760
Speaker 1: that is ready to roll. Dolphin's very short road hundred

636
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,920
Speaker 1: dogs against the Tennessee Titans too. Didn't look great last

637
00:31:39,000 --> 00:31:42,840
Speaker 1: night from what I heard. But this is a this

638
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:47,080
Speaker 1: is a tough one. What is a lay up? Lay up?

639
00:31:47,200 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 1: Lay up easy easy bet lock people one of our

640
00:31:49,520 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: five Tennessee don't care the number. I would take this

641
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:57,000
Speaker 1: up to six. So yeah, love the matchup, I love

642
00:31:57,040 --> 00:31:59,520
Speaker 1: the I love the Dolphins story. It's incredible. I think

643
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 1: Stucky tweeted about a hundred times about the Dolphins are frauds,

644
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: they haven't played anyone. That's not totally true. They beat

645
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:07,720
Speaker 1: Lamar at home on a Thursday night, which started this

646
00:32:07,760 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 1: whole kind of run. If you remember, we're probably one

647
00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: of like three people that bet Miami against Lamar in

648
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,280
Speaker 1: that game. So if if if I'm flipping on the Dolphins,

649
00:32:16,320 --> 00:32:18,160
Speaker 1: that should be assigned to people that this is when

650
00:32:18,160 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 1: you get off that Dolphins train. That was my favorite

651
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:22,800
Speaker 1: bet last week. That was a scheduled loss for that

652
00:32:22,880 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 1: Sames team coming off that big win. Same thing here.

653
00:32:26,320 --> 00:32:31,959
Speaker 1: Dolphins are match up prone against very physical, dominating teams.

654
00:32:32,480 --> 00:32:34,320
Speaker 1: They get beat and they haven't had to play in

655
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:35,760
Speaker 1: one of those teams and a lot what is it

656
00:32:35,920 --> 00:32:37,920
Speaker 1: seven weeks, eight weeks, they haven't really had to play

657
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,440
Speaker 1: a good quarterback and a physical team. That's what we

658
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:44,240
Speaker 1: have here. It's the perfect mix of a Tennessee team

659
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:47,080
Speaker 1: that's toughest ship. They got the big bodies, they have,

660
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,600
Speaker 1: the quarterback, they had, the wide receivers. Love love this

661
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 1: matchup for Tennessee. So to me, I I love the books.

662
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,840
Speaker 1: The books. They just set these traps and immediately I

663
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 1: can see them. This is gonna be one more square

664
00:33:00,400 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 1: bets of the week. The publics that come in all

665
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: over the Dolphins as a dog getting that plus number.

666
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:08,000
Speaker 1: Whatever it ends up with Tennessee, I'll be on. It's

667
00:33:08,000 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 1: already a massive pros. Joe's Game of the bets are

668
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: on Miami, of the money is on Tennessee and pros

669
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 1: of the same number as I do. They're looking at

670
00:33:16,920 --> 00:33:21,000
Speaker 1: this on paper. It's such a big discrepancy up front

671
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:23,320
Speaker 1: between these old lines and d lines with this Tennessee team,

672
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:27,160
Speaker 1: So it's it's a nice matchup for Tennessee. It's just

673
00:33:27,200 --> 00:33:29,840
Speaker 1: a really really bad one from Miami. This like again,

674
00:33:30,520 --> 00:33:32,360
Speaker 1: they have a tough, tough end of the year here.

675
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 1: They played them and was their game next? You got

676
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,600
Speaker 1: have to look it up and it might be um

677
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: Is in New England. It's it's something where the end

678
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: of the year just two guns to playoff teams. It

679
00:33:41,840 --> 00:33:43,640
Speaker 1: sucks because Miami is such a feel good story. They

680
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:46,600
Speaker 1: started one and seven, they won seven straight. That's a

681
00:33:46,680 --> 00:33:48,840
Speaker 1: great story. But I think it ends here. That might

682
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:52,479
Speaker 1: have been my confusion at the beginning. The Texans visiting

683
00:33:52,520 --> 00:33:55,959
Speaker 1: the Niners. Texans are twelve and a half point underdogs.

684
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: Another early candidate for a pro Joe with a lot

685
00:33:59,400 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: of bets me in and the Texans's a lot of

686
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Niners as huge, huge favorites.

687
00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:10,080
Speaker 1: It's the Niners at home, right, Yeah. I almost always

688
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,640
Speaker 1: fade the Niners at home in this position. But this

689
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:16,200
Speaker 1: is just I can't do with Houston after that game

690
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,880
Speaker 1: last week, that was the perfect game for them. Every

691
00:34:20,000 --> 00:34:22,240
Speaker 1: every time they had handed off, They're making these big breaks,

692
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,440
Speaker 1: these big runs. Davis Mills had zero pressure on them

693
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 1: because Boso was out of that game with COVID. They

694
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:30,920
Speaker 1: just there's just two very different teams. We see the Chargers,

695
00:34:31,000 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 1: they they had a bunch of key guys out. The

696
00:34:33,000 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 1: four Niners don't have that issue. The only pauses it's

697
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,319
Speaker 1: might It's gonna be Trey Lance. So I don't know

698
00:34:38,320 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: what to do with this one. I'm all in on

699
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:43,000
Speaker 1: tray Lands. I love Trey Lance. His tape was unbelievable

700
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,560
Speaker 1: in college. I love to pick by Shanahan, him and

701
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:48,040
Speaker 1: his scheme. Again. It was two months straight everyone tell

702
00:34:48,080 --> 00:34:50,040
Speaker 1: me Mac Jones was going to the Niners, and I

703
00:34:50,120 --> 00:34:51,759
Speaker 1: kept saying, I don't believe it. I just can't see

704
00:34:51,760 --> 00:34:54,239
Speaker 1: what this offense we're gonna see in this game. While

705
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:56,760
Speaker 1: I believe that, I just see this is the perfect

706
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,320
Speaker 1: thing where Kyle Shanahan turned r G three into the

707
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 1: rookie of the year, almost an MVP can at his

708
00:35:01,239 --> 00:35:03,959
Speaker 1: rookie year. I could see the same things with Trey Lance.

709
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:06,600
Speaker 1: Trey Lances all the same exact tools as already three did,

710
00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 1: but he's smarter. He can read defenses. So it's a

711
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 1: big game. I want to tell people, you just take

712
00:35:13,160 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 1: the points here with Houston because I like dating a

713
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:17,719
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback and it's like, you know, what, is this

714
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 1: the second start this season. I don't know what to

715
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 1: do with this one. The number feels good to me.

716
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: I made this number thirteen when they told me it's

717
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 1: Tray Lance. I bumped it down to eleven. So thankfully

718
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 1: that the value right now is on Houston. But I

719
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:31,600
Speaker 1: don't really know what to do with it because I

720
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:32,880
Speaker 1: don't really know how to read Tray Lance. I just

721
00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 1: haven't seen him play enough. We're gonna wait, that's what

722
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:37,239
Speaker 1: we're gonna do. We're not gonna We're probably not gonna

723
00:35:37,239 --> 00:35:39,359
Speaker 1: do anything. It's definitely not going to be in our

724
00:35:39,400 --> 00:35:41,560
Speaker 1: top five. We got a lot of their candidates for

725
00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,399
Speaker 1: the top five, so we're not like hurting right now.

726
00:35:44,640 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 1: It seems like there are a couple of games that

727
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 1: we freaking love, so we haven't we haven't done this.

728
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 1: Simon says yet. Yeah, I got there's two cannons for

729
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:55,759
Speaker 1: Simon says, you're gonna love them both. So they're coming up,

730
00:35:56,120 --> 00:36:00,799
Speaker 1: all right, The Broncos against the Chargers in Los Angeles.

731
00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 1: The Chargers so inconsistent justin Herbert, Oh goodness, oh goodness, yikee.

732
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 1: There are five point favorites against the Broncos. I assume

733
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 1: we've got Teddy Bridwater back this week. I haven't seen reports,

734
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 1: but if we do, it's hard not to take the

735
00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:21,120
Speaker 1: Broncos here. I'm starting to trust Vic Fangio as a

736
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,520
Speaker 1: coach more than Brandon Staley. I'm right there with We

737
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:26,560
Speaker 1: will keep it moving because we spend much time on

738
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: the other games. But if Teddy is in, people meet

739
00:36:29,239 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: me and Chad Teddy. Teddy's are underdog on the road.

740
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,879
Speaker 1: We take Teddy. So the other thing we could say

741
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 1: is the Chargers have one of the worst run defensive

742
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,239
Speaker 1: I've ever seen in football, and every week they've gotten

743
00:36:40,239 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 1: worse somehow, Like again Houston Rex Burkehead ran for one

744
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: fifty on them last week. You're going against the Denver

745
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 1: team that's a two headed monster and Melvin Gordon and

746
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 1: Javatte Williams. So I hate this matchup for the Chargers. Well,

747
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:54,400
Speaker 1: we'll be on the Broncos, but we need to know, Teddy,

748
00:36:54,440 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 1: I can't bet any more money outlocked Panthers. These Panthers

749
00:37:00,040 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 1: touchdown underdogs on the road at New Orleans. Do we

750
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: even know who's playing quarterback for New Orleans yet? No?

751
00:37:06,560 --> 00:37:08,759
Speaker 1: Apparently the pros don't care. I talked to a couple

752
00:37:08,760 --> 00:37:11,320
Speaker 1: of big time pros. They've bet heavily on the Saints.

753
00:37:11,440 --> 00:37:14,920
Speaker 1: They're pretty much saying, we think there's two teams that

754
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 1: have fully quit on this season. One of the Giants,

755
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 1: who is the Panthers, And I should have listened to

756
00:37:21,840 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 1: him last week. I faded the Giants last week, but

757
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: I was like, now, I think this team is gonna

758
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:27,480
Speaker 1: play for camp. I thought they would really show up

759
00:37:27,560 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: last week. They've quit that that team has simply quit.

760
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:33,759
Speaker 1: So I'm interested with the public will even do with

761
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,920
Speaker 1: this line later in the week. But the fact that

762
00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: I heared other professionals they've come and they've bet the Saints.

763
00:37:38,400 --> 00:37:40,040
Speaker 1: I think it's up to seven. Ale, Like you said,

764
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:42,920
Speaker 1: I guess I tell people about the Saints, but this

765
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,080
Speaker 1: will be one of my last back games. I just

766
00:37:45,120 --> 00:37:47,759
Speaker 1: really don't have a feel for it right now. Next game.

767
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:49,960
Speaker 1: I know we're going a little bit faster than usual,

768
00:37:50,040 --> 00:37:53,200
Speaker 1: but there's a massive number of games and want to

769
00:37:53,200 --> 00:37:54,960
Speaker 1: make sure we we get to all of them in

770
00:37:55,000 --> 00:38:01,440
Speaker 1: a timely matter. Cardinals road Dogs, A fading Cardinals team

771
00:38:01,440 --> 00:38:03,919
Speaker 1: really disappointed us on Saturday night five and a half

772
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:08,000
Speaker 1: point Dogs against the Cowboys. I do think there's a

773
00:38:08,040 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 1: little bit. There's probably about two points of value here

774
00:38:11,880 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. This game should probably be three and

775
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:15,759
Speaker 1: a half or three, and I would be right there.

776
00:38:15,920 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 1: If I'm not, I'm not. I'm not doing it everything

777
00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,360
Speaker 1: you just said. True. Cardinals are on the right side. Dallas,

778
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:24,120
Speaker 1: I think they're probably one of the more overrated teams

779
00:38:24,160 --> 00:38:27,439
Speaker 1: right now. They're twelve and three against the spread. They're

780
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,799
Speaker 1: they're obviously due for regression. I'll tell you right now,

781
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:30,920
Speaker 1: and next year this is gonna be one of my

782
00:38:30,920 --> 00:38:33,920
Speaker 1: bigger fades all season. I'll just always fade Dallas because

783
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:36,160
Speaker 1: all their lines next year are gonna be over inflated

784
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 1: just because of what they've done this year. I mean,

785
00:38:38,920 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: two of the biggest public teams and all football are

786
00:38:42,080 --> 00:38:44,239
Speaker 1: the Cowboys in Green Bay. I think they're one and

787
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,759
Speaker 1: two against the spread, So that's that's pretty crazy. Those

788
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:51,640
Speaker 1: two teams are always getting bet up. The Lion value

789
00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,400
Speaker 1: has not mattered even if you're if you've been being

790
00:38:53,440 --> 00:38:55,960
Speaker 1: against him, you've been a loser this year. So I

791
00:38:55,960 --> 00:38:57,200
Speaker 1: don't know what to do with this one, Like I

792
00:38:57,239 --> 00:39:00,480
Speaker 1: want to so bad against the Cowboys, but this could

793
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:02,520
Speaker 1: be a sharp trap because this line doesn't make sense.

794
00:39:02,680 --> 00:39:04,719
Speaker 1: When I made this line, I made it seven. The

795
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,400
Speaker 1: Cowboys are healthy on offense, they have all their weapons

796
00:39:07,480 --> 00:39:10,560
Speaker 1: right now. We see they're all clicking. We we have

797
00:39:10,640 --> 00:39:12,560
Speaker 1: seen it with this Arizona team. They just have not

798
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:15,279
Speaker 1: looked right. Hopkins went down. Now, they don't have a

799
00:39:15,320 --> 00:39:17,959
Speaker 1: weapon on third down. That's a key thing. They didn't

800
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 1: have Connor last week. That obviously was a big deal.

801
00:39:20,160 --> 00:39:23,200
Speaker 1: They couldn't have those big runs. They faltered allot on

802
00:39:23,200 --> 00:39:25,680
Speaker 1: the red zone. Connor is very important to them. The

803
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: biggest one is J. J. Watt. If you look at

804
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:30,359
Speaker 1: what they were against the run before J. J. Watt,

805
00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:32,960
Speaker 1: who was playing d tackle for them, got hurt, It's

806
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,080
Speaker 1: like night and day. There were seven and oh he's

807
00:39:35,120 --> 00:39:37,440
Speaker 1: gone down. We've seen what they've become. On defense, they

808
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,239
Speaker 1: could be run on. That's the Cowboys identity. They want

809
00:39:40,239 --> 00:39:41,960
Speaker 1: to run it with Zeke. They want to run with Pollard.

810
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:45,399
Speaker 1: So yeah, the proman wants to be like what Chad

811
00:39:45,440 --> 00:39:47,600
Speaker 1: just said, there's you're getting two three points of value

812
00:39:47,680 --> 00:39:50,640
Speaker 1: just because of what happened last week and what this team,

813
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: the Cowboys have done this year to the books. They've

814
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,800
Speaker 1: destroyed the books. The public keeps winning on. So I'll wait.

815
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 1: I hope this number kids getting betting on. Maybe if

816
00:39:57,680 --> 00:39:59,839
Speaker 1: they hit seven, that's when I see the value coming

817
00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 1: on the Cardinals. I'll make that bet. But it's stays

818
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 1: under six, six and a half. I just can't beat

819
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 1: the Cardinals at that number, all right, So we're gonna

820
00:40:06,719 --> 00:40:10,080
Speaker 1: wait on that one. Yeah, all right. Next up, let's

821
00:40:10,120 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 1: talk about the Detroit Lions visiting the Seattle Seahawks. They

822
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:19,120
Speaker 1: are basically a touchdown underdog on the road. Gross, we'll

823
00:40:19,160 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 1: just I mean, we'll just keep betting the Lions. I

824
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,120
Speaker 1: guess I have no idea what to read on this game.

825
00:40:23,680 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 1: You like the value? What's your number? I think it's

826
00:40:26,160 --> 00:40:27,759
Speaker 1: good at what it is. I mean, it's seven. The

827
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:29,799
Speaker 1: pros came in heavy when it was nine and a half,

828
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: eight and a half. They've bet it down some books

829
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,480
Speaker 1: down to six and a half. I'd still take the

830
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 1: lines there at that number. I think that's a fair

831
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 1: price for the Seahawks team. I just cannot stop the run.

832
00:40:39,440 --> 00:40:41,160
Speaker 1: But we know the Linon's identity. Lioness want to run

833
00:40:41,160 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 1: it down your throat and they have quick passes and

834
00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,880
Speaker 1: that's what's worked for him. So man, I hate to

835
00:40:45,920 --> 00:40:48,520
Speaker 1: do it. I can't believe I'm doing it. But I'll

836
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:50,839
Speaker 1: take the lions and I'll take the points. But man,

837
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:52,440
Speaker 1: this is a gross one. This probably won't be one

838
00:40:52,440 --> 00:40:54,160
Speaker 1: of our five. No. I mean, you're not getting the

839
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,000
Speaker 1: best that number anymore. I think if I had seen

840
00:40:56,000 --> 00:40:58,360
Speaker 1: this at nine. You know, we do this podcast that

841
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:01,320
Speaker 1: comes out on Mondays with Raheem Palmer and Brandon Anderson

842
00:41:01,400 --> 00:41:03,440
Speaker 1: which they will take a look at the sort of

843
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:07,080
Speaker 1: hot reads of the early lines, and this at nine,

844
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 1: this was they were all over this one. Actually, net

845
00:41:09,080 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 1: we're a podcast, check it out. They were all over

846
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 1: this one early. That makes me anxious about getting it

847
00:41:14,080 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 1: at seven. Although, to be honest, like I just know

848
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:19,960
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, They're they're not dis similar to me from

849
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:21,920
Speaker 1: the Giants and the Panthers. Like there's a lot of

850
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:25,920
Speaker 1: chaos there. There's questions about the future of the organization.

851
00:41:26,400 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 1: Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson. Their defense is horrible, and the

852
00:41:32,200 --> 00:41:35,560
Speaker 1: Lions like they don't seem to know how bad they are,

853
00:41:36,000 --> 00:41:38,160
Speaker 1: do you know what I mean? The craziest part is,

854
00:41:38,200 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 1: like one of my favorite best is betting there under

855
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: and Houston's under, and now I'm sweating those. It's it's

856
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,560
Speaker 1: scary time, especially how much money I have on in Houston. Houston.

857
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:49,640
Speaker 1: Luckily it's five and the lines were five and a half.

858
00:41:49,680 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 1: I know they were bent down. I think four and

859
00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 1: a half and five I thought lines were. And you're

860
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:57,840
Speaker 1: talking about season win totals. By the way, Sorry, it's interesting.

861
00:41:58,040 --> 00:42:00,480
Speaker 1: I'll give I'll give Camba all the in the world.

862
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:02,960
Speaker 1: It is pretty amazing what they've done. When you look

863
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:05,160
Speaker 1: on paper, they're they're not as terrible as you think

864
00:42:05,160 --> 00:42:06,680
Speaker 1: they are. They're actually great out as one of the

865
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 1: top five offensive lines and all football this year, so

866
00:42:10,200 --> 00:42:11,680
Speaker 1: they have stuff to build on their the lines. But

867
00:42:11,719 --> 00:42:13,600
Speaker 1: just for this game, I think Chad Snail on the head.

868
00:42:13,640 --> 00:42:16,400
Speaker 1: The defense up Seattle is so bad. It was the

869
00:42:16,400 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 1: same reason I want to take the barrious plus seven.

870
00:42:18,800 --> 00:42:20,560
Speaker 1: Who who the hell are they to be favored by

871
00:42:20,600 --> 00:42:23,880
Speaker 1: that many points. This feels like it's a respect to

872
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:27,320
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson of the old given them that many points

873
00:42:27,360 --> 00:42:30,600
Speaker 1: at home, I'm not buying it. So yeah, I'll take lines.

874
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:31,919
Speaker 1: I just don't know if I'll be one of our five.

875
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 1: Credit to Dan Campbell. Also credit to Dave Culley of

876
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 1: the Texas, because there's no one who was thinking they

877
00:42:39,360 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 1: would get even close to their season win total and

878
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:45,319
Speaker 1: they're making you sweat not at all. I mean a

879
00:42:45,320 --> 00:42:48,399
Speaker 1: few franchises have drafted worse and done worse in free

880
00:42:48,400 --> 00:42:52,760
Speaker 1: agency then Houston. I look at them. It's incredible. Davids Mills.

881
00:42:53,360 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 1: Someone was saying, why isn't he up for Rookie the Year?

882
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,560
Speaker 1: That's a fair Honestly, that's a fair argument. You look

883
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:01,040
Speaker 1: on what Mac Jones is around him in New England

884
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: compared to what this kid has been dealing with in Houston.

885
00:43:04,520 --> 00:43:08,080
Speaker 1: That's a fair argument. It's just if Mac gets the playoffs,

886
00:43:08,480 --> 00:43:10,080
Speaker 1: you have to give it to him. He's a quarterback.

887
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,200
Speaker 1: He's a rookie quarterback that played all all season, the

888
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 1: teams in the playoffs, So that get better year for

889
00:43:15,120 --> 00:43:19,920
Speaker 1: Davis Mills than Trevor Lawrence easily no, he's honestly, in

890
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,160
Speaker 1: my opinion, he's number two quarterbacks this year. It's it's

891
00:43:22,200 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 1: Mac one than him. So it's not amazing interesting, it's

892
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 1: totally amazing. The Vikings totally disappointed us. Speaking of what's up,

893
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 1: you speak for yourself. I was on the disappointed us

894
00:43:34,719 --> 00:43:37,680
Speaker 1: in the fact that the right number on that it

895
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,360
Speaker 1: should have been a touchdown a field goal game, and

896
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:42,920
Speaker 1: everyone should have won their bests. They should have everyone

897
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 1: on on the Vikings at three and a half in

898
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:46,120
Speaker 1: the Rams and two and a half they should have

899
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 1: everyone should have won. The Vikings sucked it up. Six

900
00:43:49,640 --> 00:43:51,960
Speaker 1: and a half point dogs against the Packers feels like

901
00:43:51,960 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 1: a good number, though, Like I look at that, and

902
00:43:53,560 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 1: I'm not going to be overreactive to the Vikings at

903
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,080
Speaker 1: the end of the year. You mentioned the Packers and

904
00:43:59,120 --> 00:44:01,319
Speaker 1: they're against the spread number this year, they are due

905
00:44:01,360 --> 00:44:05,560
Speaker 1: for aggression. Obviously, them and them and the Cowboys teams

906
00:44:05,640 --> 00:44:09,200
Speaker 1: generally will be or a little bit better or a

907
00:44:09,239 --> 00:44:12,000
Speaker 1: little bit worse against the spread. The Packers and Cowboys

908
00:44:12,719 --> 00:44:16,640
Speaker 1: like combined or I don't know, Like I think they've

909
00:44:16,680 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 1: lost six games total against the spread. So and the Packers,

910
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:22,600
Speaker 1: you know this Browns game was one of them, but

911
00:44:22,680 --> 00:44:24,960
Speaker 1: it feels like this is another spot where it could

912
00:44:25,000 --> 00:44:28,279
Speaker 1: be a close game. The fact that we're the number

913
00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:32,319
Speaker 1: one biggest podcast sports gamling podcasts in the world. I

914
00:44:32,360 --> 00:44:34,319
Speaker 1: can't make this my assignment, says, because I want to

915
00:44:34,320 --> 00:44:36,560
Speaker 1: do with the Vikings. But it's Kirk in prime time.

916
00:44:37,560 --> 00:44:41,239
Speaker 1: We love this number. I mean, this is you bet

917
00:44:41,280 --> 00:44:44,040
Speaker 1: this every time divisional matchup this late in the season.

918
00:44:44,680 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 1: These teams aren't that different. I know the record you're

919
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,239
Speaker 1: looking on paper, Go holy well, the Green Bay is

920
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,560
Speaker 1: gonna be the number one seed in the NFC. Blakes

921
00:44:51,600 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: aren't gonna make the playoffs. The Vikings were fucked from

922
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:57,080
Speaker 1: the get go. We talked all preseason. That was the

923
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,440
Speaker 1: stinkiest win total all off season. There was just sitting

924
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: there at nine nine and a half. Some some books

925
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 1: moved back down to eight and a half. They're never

926
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,439
Speaker 1: gonna hit that over Like it felt like the fix

927
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 1: was in coming into the year with this Vikings team.

928
00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:13,960
Speaker 1: So to me, this is the typical everyone's off the Vikings.

929
00:45:14,200 --> 00:45:16,720
Speaker 1: Everyone's gonna be in on Green Bay. This number should

930
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,360
Speaker 1: be four three and a half. We're getting three points.

931
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 1: It could even go up to seven again, we'll get

932
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,880
Speaker 1: back at seven. That's even better. We love the Vikings here.

933
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:25,680
Speaker 1: It just sucks at the primetime game. This is one

934
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,640
Speaker 1: o'clock in the afternoon in Green Bay. I'd be all in.

935
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:30,239
Speaker 1: This would be probably my biggest bet of the week,

936
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:33,160
Speaker 1: but because it's prime time, I gotta remember it's Kirk

937
00:45:33,200 --> 00:45:36,759
Speaker 1: Cousins in prime time and historically he always lost us down,

938
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:39,480
Speaker 1: so I had to bet this number. But just the

939
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:40,960
Speaker 1: fact that it's in a prime time I won't bet

940
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 1: as much. I know what you're gonna say. Next, the

941
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:46,080
Speaker 1: Browns are visiting the Steelers. The Steelers are three and

942
00:45:46,120 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 1: a half point underdogs at home, coming off a dreadful

943
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,000
Speaker 1: game in which it really doesn't look like they have

944
00:45:53,080 --> 00:45:55,719
Speaker 1: a play other than Ben Roethlisberger throw it up and

945
00:45:55,719 --> 00:46:00,239
Speaker 1: help someone calls pass interference. But I gotta set says

946
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:02,440
Speaker 1: this one. Dad knows me so well, and that's why

947
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 1: I love you said Pittsburgh in your head, just because

948
00:46:05,040 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 1: it's rare. I'll do back to back money nights is

949
00:46:06,960 --> 00:46:09,400
Speaker 1: my biggest bets of the week. The same reason we

950
00:46:09,440 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 1: took Miami last week at three and a half, the

951
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 1: same reason we'll take Pittsburgh here. Man, that game couldn't

952
00:46:14,400 --> 00:46:16,560
Speaker 1: have gone any better for us, that Chiefs game. Everything

953
00:46:16,560 --> 00:46:18,960
Speaker 1: we said about Pittsburgh came true. They just they never

954
00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 1: had a chance. That offense was never gonna be able

955
00:46:20,760 --> 00:46:23,719
Speaker 1: to keep up with Kansas City offense. This is the

956
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:29,520
Speaker 1: best Pittsburgh's defense at home late December after a blowout loss. God,

957
00:46:29,600 --> 00:46:32,799
Speaker 1: this is too easy, too easy. Take Pittsburgh take their

958
00:46:32,800 --> 00:46:35,720
Speaker 1: money line. I make this line minus one. You're getting

959
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:40,160
Speaker 1: four and a half points, free points just because Roethlisberger

960
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: might have a dead arm. I love this one. That's

961
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,440
Speaker 1: why I hate doing my Simon says on Monday night

962
00:46:44,480 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 1: because people up to wait all weekend. When it's like

963
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,000
Speaker 1: the Dolphins game like that was last night. It's always

964
00:46:49,000 --> 00:46:51,240
Speaker 1: worth the weight. When you have a plus number against

965
00:46:51,280 --> 00:46:54,680
Speaker 1: an inferior team, it's the best feelings. So to me,

966
00:46:55,120 --> 00:46:56,960
Speaker 1: there's no doubt by the time this game kicks off,

967
00:46:56,960 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: it's gonna below through. The number will be below three,

968
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:00,560
Speaker 1: and you'll be two and a half. Were at three.

969
00:47:01,080 --> 00:47:02,640
Speaker 1: Take that three and a half as long as you can.

970
00:47:03,200 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 1: I mean, here's the thing. We've now gone through the

971
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 1: entire slate. We love the Steelers, We love the Washington

972
00:47:10,440 --> 00:47:14,480
Speaker 1: football team. I'm not I'm not afraid of taking the Vikings.

973
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 1: We like the Chiefs, we could like the Lions like

974
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: we like every game. We have an opinion on every game,

975
00:47:21,360 --> 00:47:23,680
Speaker 1: almost every game. Yeah, I've got a lot of games

976
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:25,759
Speaker 1: earlier this week. But again, I've been talking to a

977
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 1: lot of pros, and we feel like we're getting good

978
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:29,960
Speaker 1: value that we can buy out of if COVID does happen.

979
00:47:30,160 --> 00:47:31,839
Speaker 1: So it honestly feels like a lot of these lines

980
00:47:31,840 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 1: are juice stuff at this time of year, just because,

981
00:47:34,080 --> 00:47:37,560
Speaker 1: like you said, these teams like Green Bay, like Dallas

982
00:47:37,600 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 1: have just been burning these sports books. So it feels

983
00:47:40,080 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 1: like we're getting to three points of value earlier in

984
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:44,279
Speaker 1: this week right now, I mean this, this Pritsburgh Lands

985
00:47:44,360 --> 00:47:47,080
Speaker 1: ridiculous like that back in the day, you never see

986
00:47:47,120 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 1: this kind of line, such an overreaction. The books have

987
00:47:49,960 --> 00:47:51,520
Speaker 1: to do it. So many people are coming in so

988
00:47:51,600 --> 00:47:53,759
Speaker 1: heavy on Cleveland, they have to move that number to

989
00:47:53,800 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 1: what they did. All right, we got our son and

990
00:47:55,920 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 1: says it's the Steelers are foxholes. The Washington football team.

991
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,160
Speaker 1: We've gone through the entire slate. We will do big

992
00:48:01,160 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 1: balls on Thursday. Convince me. Eleven a m. Sundays. Watch it.

993
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:08,799
Speaker 1: It's not a podcast. You gotta watch it. Action Network HQ.

994
00:48:08,960 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 1: You can also get an Action Networks YouTube page. We'll

995
00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,440
Speaker 1: do our money line parlay on Thursday. Last week in

996
00:48:14,520 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 1: scoot Roulette, I had the Chiefs and you in Miami.

997
00:48:17,880 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.

998
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:29,680
Speaker 1: Let's play roulette. You get to go first again this week.

999
00:48:30,080 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 1: You already know I'm gonna keep it simple, stupid. I

1000
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:34,480
Speaker 1: just want to win. That's my whole goal here. I'll

1001
00:48:34,480 --> 00:48:36,360
Speaker 1: just take the sharpest number every week, and I'll just

1002
00:48:36,440 --> 00:48:39,160
Speaker 1: keep beating this ship out of Chad. Give me Pittsburgh

1003
00:48:39,160 --> 00:48:44,400
Speaker 1: three and a half. Tricky, tricky I I'm gonna take

1004
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,400
Speaker 1: the Titans minus three and a half. That was my

1005
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:50,440
Speaker 1: other option was that's the that's the biggest one, stands out,

1006
00:48:50,440 --> 00:48:53,279
Speaker 1: the biggest line. Discrupancy. Forgot about that one. Add that

1007
00:48:53,360 --> 00:48:56,200
Speaker 1: to the list. Like, if we had to choose right now,

1008
00:48:56,280 --> 00:48:58,759
Speaker 1: we could choose five now, Arthur mad I can think

1009
00:48:58,760 --> 00:49:00,600
Speaker 1: of two favorites and three dollars us that are just

1010
00:49:00,840 --> 00:49:03,480
Speaker 1: automatic places. If we had to choose right now, we

1011
00:49:03,520 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 1: would choose Titans, Chiefs Dealers of Bikes, Washington football team, right,

1012
00:49:08,360 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 1: those are the two favorites and three dogs. Are we

1013
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:14,720
Speaker 1: on the same page? Wow? Is that amazing? Only because

1014
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:17,760
Speaker 1: I know it's very very little I can do convinced

1015
00:49:17,760 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 1: you take the bears, but we'll see you come to sung. Well,

1016
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,759
Speaker 1: here's the thing, Like people are complaining, Hey, why are

1017
00:49:22,760 --> 00:49:24,359
Speaker 1: you putting the picks in the app? Follow the app

1018
00:49:24,400 --> 00:49:28,319
Speaker 1: to phase five. On Sunday, we'll office stale lines. We're

1019
00:49:28,320 --> 00:49:30,399
Speaker 1: giving away the games that we're talking about right now

1020
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 1: with the numbers that they are. We like these games.

1021
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 1: We will make the decision on Sunday based on a

1022
00:49:35,080 --> 00:49:37,880
Speaker 1: variety of other factors, and usually we were worse on Sunday.

1023
00:49:37,920 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: So I don't know what then these people are bitching about.

1024
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:41,640
Speaker 1: This is this is where we're giving good info Tuesday,

1025
00:49:41,680 --> 00:49:44,800
Speaker 1: when our minds are clear connected to the emotions of

1026
00:49:44,840 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 1: the day. We're here. We're like anybody else. Most we

1027
00:49:48,440 --> 00:49:52,439
Speaker 1: make most of our bets Monday through Friday. Yeah, I don't.

1028
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:55,359
Speaker 1: I honestly might make one bet Sunday. All my bets

1029
00:49:55,360 --> 00:49:57,600
Speaker 1: are done by Sunday, honestly, Like the only time I'll

1030
00:49:57,600 --> 00:50:02,040
Speaker 1: bet Sunday mornings, I'm buying out a position. Huh am

1031
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 1: I missing anything now, you nailed it. Thank you. Appreciate that,

1032
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 1: Appreciate your support. This has been the favorites from the

1033
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Nolman. He is Simon Hunter.

1034
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:18,359
Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify again. Remember you can now ripe

1035
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 1: podcasts and Spotify give us a five star review. We

1036
00:50:21,600 --> 00:50:24,319
Speaker 1: don't care if you rip us feedback as a gift,

1037
00:50:24,520 --> 00:50:26,759
Speaker 1: it's gotta be five stars. Do the same thing on

1038
00:50:26,800 --> 00:50:31,200
Speaker 1: Apple podcasts. We will be back on Thursday talking about

1039
00:50:31,200 --> 00:50:35,040
Speaker 1: the game's narrowing things down, getting closer to Sunday. Until then,

1040
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:48,600
Speaker 1: I love you, Yeah,