Speaker 1: The volume. The NBA season is in full swing, and
Speaker 1: when I can't get enough of the action on the court,
Speaker 1: I spice things up by betting on DraftKings Sportsbook, an
Speaker 1: official partner of the NBA. Right now, new customers can
Speaker 1: bet five bucks and get two hundred instantly in bonus bets.
Speaker 1: I was looking at the lines for making the playoffs today,
Speaker 1: and you can get the Lakers at plus one point
Speaker 1: fifteen to make the playoffs, and the Warriors check this
Speaker 1: out at plus two oh five to make the playoffs.
Speaker 1: Download the DraftKings Sportsbook app with code hoops that's hoops.
Speaker 1: New customers can bet five bucks on the NBA and
Speaker 1: get two hundred instantly in bonus bets only on Draftking
Speaker 1: Sportsbook with code hoops that's hops. The Crown is yours.
Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or visit www
Speaker 1: dot one eight hundred gambler dot net. In New York
Speaker 1: called eight seven seven eight hope and why, or text
Speaker 1: hope and Why to four six seven three six nine.
Speaker 1: In Connecticut, help is available for problem gambling called eight
Speaker 1: eight eight seven eight nine seven seven seven seven or
Speaker 1: visit CCPG dot org. Please play responsibly on behalf of
Speaker 1: Boothill Casino and Resort in Kansas. Twenty one plus age
Speaker 1: varies by jurisdiction void in Ontario. Bonus bets expire one
Speaker 1: hundred and sixty eight hours after issuance. See dkg dot
Speaker 1: com slash basketball for eligibility and deposit restrictions, terms and
Speaker 1: responsible gambling resources. All right, welcome to ho Tonight here
Speaker 1: at the volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody, hoop all if you
Speaker 1: guys are having a great week. Just a quick show today.
Speaker 1: We're gonna hit thunder Lakers, talk about the Golden State
Speaker 1: Warriors and their recent struggles, especially on the defensive end
Speaker 1: of the floor. Then I have a bit for the
Speaker 1: end of the show that I want to do about
Speaker 1: shot quality and the role it plays in basketball analysis.
Speaker 1: You guys know the Joe forberget started. Subscribe to the
Speaker 1: brand new YouTube channel. I mean a lot to me
Speaker 1: if you guy would take a second to scroll down
Speaker 1: and hit that subscribe button. Don't forget about our podcast feeds.
Speaker 1: Wherever you get your podcasts under Hoops Tonight. Follow me
Speaker 1: on Twitter at underscore JSNLT so you guys don't miss
Speaker 1: the film threads that I do on most mornings as
Speaker 1: well as show announcements, and the last, but not out
Speaker 1: least keep dropping mail bag questions is more time because
Speaker 1: we're gonna do a long mail bag in tomorrow's show.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk some basketball. So the Lakers get
Speaker 1: another big win. What did I tell you guys after
Speaker 1: the Clippers game? I was like, look forward to them
Speaker 1: over the rest of the month of January to look
Speaker 1: really bad at times and really good at times. And
Speaker 1: that's the thing with this team right now. We're gonna
Speaker 1: talk about it in a little bit. But the thunder
Speaker 1: are a damn good team coming in on a winning streak,
Speaker 1: and the Lakers kind of manhandled them physically again, sixty
Speaker 1: something points in the paint a really good defensive effort,
Speaker 1: especially in helping recovery situations. You could see the effort
Speaker 1: digging down and getting back out to shooters. The Lakers
Speaker 1: always have a bunch of big forwards off the ball,
Speaker 1: and that it makes it so that they can be
Speaker 1: really good and helping recover situations when they are locked in.
Speaker 1: Darvin Ham did a nice job mixing in some zone
Speaker 1: defense in the second half that helps to further the
Speaker 1: breaking of Oklahoma City's rhythm. They ran thirteen possessions of
Speaker 1: zone in the second half and gave up just five points,
Speaker 1: so it clearly had an impact on Oklahoma City. And
Speaker 1: then on offense, a lot of action from Lebron and
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis as cutters. As a matter of fact, the
Speaker 1: Lakers scored twenty two points on cuts in this game,
Speaker 1: and sixteen of them where Anthony Davis and Lebron. As
Speaker 1: a team that can struggle with dribble penetration from time
Speaker 1: to time, cutting and having passers that can hit the
Speaker 1: cutters when they make those cuts is another way to
Speaker 1: generate that kind of rim pressure and all the good
Speaker 1: stuff that can happen happen off of that. One of
Speaker 1: the things that they did a lot in this game
Speaker 1: is have other guys set screens and have Anthony Davis
Speaker 1: work in the dunker spot because if he can, shouldn't
Speaker 1: go up with a head of steam with chet with
Speaker 1: his attention turned elsewhere. He can either draw foul or
Speaker 1: finish relatively easily. Another thing is Lebron with those swim
Speaker 1: move back cuts that he always does. Lebron's backcuts are
Speaker 1: almost a very physical play where you know he's standing
Speaker 1: on the wing and the guy's pressing up a little
Speaker 1: bit to try to stop, you know, Lebron from catching
Speaker 1: easily on the perimeter, and Lebron will just literally do
Speaker 1: what a defensive end does, and he'll just do that
Speaker 1: angry swim move and just kind of go past the
Speaker 1: dude and they'll lead him towards the basket for a
Speaker 1: bucket that way, same sort of thing. It's just the
Speaker 1: Lakers are much much bigger than the Oklahoma City Thunder,
Speaker 1: and when they make these aggressive back cuts and they
Speaker 1: can hit those guys with the head of steam, there's
Speaker 1: just nobody on Oklahoma City that can really bother him
Speaker 1: at the rim when they get to that point. I
Speaker 1: thought Austin Reeves had a really good pick and roll game,
Speaker 1: ran nine of them, leading to ten points. He's now actually,
Speaker 1: with last night, over one point per possession on pick
Speaker 1: and rolls for the season. He's one of only fifteen
Speaker 1: players in the league to have run at least five
Speaker 1: hundred pick and rolls this year, and he's creeping up
Speaker 1: that list. At the start of the year, he's well
Speaker 1: low point per possession and it's just getting better and
Speaker 1: better and better. You can see Austin Reeves improving as
Speaker 1: a pick and roll shot creator with each passing game
Speaker 1: as he continues to get the reps. I thought he
Speaker 1: made some really nice kickout passes to shooters too that
Speaker 1: didn't go in, So I think it could have been
Speaker 1: even better than what the numbers showed, and the numbers
Speaker 1: were impressive. And then D'Angelo Russell. You know, I again,
Speaker 1: I think it's one of the safest bets in the
Speaker 1: NBA this year that he gets traded, and I still
Speaker 1: feel pretty strongly about that. That said, like, that doesn't
Speaker 1: mean he's not a good basketball player. It's just a
Speaker 1: redundancy on the Lakers that they have to deal with.
Speaker 1: And he's a very good basketball player. And one of
Speaker 1: the gifts that he has is interior passing. He's one
Speaker 1: of those players that's good at hitting Lebron James and
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis and others when they are cutting to the
Speaker 1: basket with the head of steam, and like we mentioned earlier,
Speaker 1: that's a great way to generate more rim pressure and
Speaker 1: that was a big part of the offensive success of
Speaker 1: the Lakers last night. And the last thing I wanted to
Speaker 1: shout out rujatch Mura and Jared Vanderbilt, who both had
Speaker 1: big games off the bench. These two guys have been
Speaker 1: given a rough shake in terms of the rotation with
Speaker 1: Darvin Ham who just continues to give thirty plus minutes
Speaker 1: to Torrian Prince no matter what. And when cam reddis
Speaker 1: gets back, I'm sure he'll be getting a bunch of
Speaker 1: minutes too. And one of the nice things, like one
Speaker 1: of the bad things with that is Ruy and Jared
Speaker 1: have had really inconsistent shifts and inconsistent minutes. It's just
Speaker 1: made it hard for their rhythm. And both of those
Speaker 1: guys have just kept a good attitude and kept playing
Speaker 1: good basketball that Jared Vanderbilt had one of his most
Speaker 1: impactful defensive games last night, and Ruey Achamura, after a
Speaker 1: rough first tap make and some bad decisions, really played
Speaker 1: smart basketball in the second half. Hits, some big shots,
Speaker 1: had some transition runouts, and some cuts. Really good all
Speaker 1: around game for the Lakers is they notch a very
Speaker 1: very important win against the Oklahoma City Thunder. So now
Speaker 1: I want to talk about the Lakers in a big
Speaker 1: picture sense because one of the themes of today's show
Speaker 1: is going to have to do with regular season malayise
Speaker 1: And you know, I think you can go too far
Speaker 1: in that direction when every game is like, oh, this
Speaker 1: team played harder, this team didn't play hard, and there
Speaker 1: are obviously basketball dynamics that take place, but we'd be
Speaker 1: foolish to pretend like that stuff doesn't matter, right, I mean, like,
Speaker 1: let's look at Sacramento Kings, for instance. The sacrament Kings
Speaker 1: are a team that have had an impressive list of
Speaker 1: dominant wins this year against really good teams. But then
Speaker 1: they'll just get their ass kicked, you know, once every
Speaker 1: two weeks, like just straight up get throttled by like
Speaker 1: thirty points, right, And so they're a team that, like,
Speaker 1: depending on the night, sometimes they come out throw a
Speaker 1: hllacious punch and sometimes they come out and they're unfocused
Speaker 1: and they're unseious, unseerious, and they can lose, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: look at the Lakers. Let's just zoom in on the
Speaker 1: Lakers really quick. Lakers have given up one hundred and
Speaker 1: eighteen points per one hundred possessions since winning the n
Speaker 1: Season Tournament championship. That's awful. That's twenty first in the
Speaker 1: league over that span. In that same span, the Clippers
Speaker 1: have been the best offense in the league at one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty four points per one hundred possessions, and
Speaker 1: the Thunder are fourth at one hundred and twenty four
Speaker 1: points per one hundred possessions. I think they're like six
Speaker 1: tenths of a point below the Clippers at this point.
Speaker 1: The Lakers, what like a week and a half ago,
Speaker 1: held the Clippers to a one to oh three offensive rating,
Speaker 1: literally twenty one points below their recent success in the
Speaker 1: James harden Era right, held the Thunder last night two
Speaker 1: one hundred and five points per one hundred possessions. Even
Speaker 1: if we go back to some of their bigger wins
Speaker 1: early in the years, they're on the strength of these big,
Speaker 1: strong defensive runs, like the Pacers light up the Celtics,
Speaker 1: and the Pacers light up the Bucks, and then the
Speaker 1: Lakers throttle the Pacers and they get a win. We
Speaker 1: know they have this defensive punch. What does that tell us?
Speaker 1: They have that punch, they can throw it, but most
Speaker 1: of the time they don't throw it. Let's make it
Speaker 1: even more apparent. So the Lakers are twenty and twenty one.
Speaker 1: They're a below five hundred team. Call them five hundred
Speaker 1: if you give them the Pacers win in the regular
Speaker 1: season which doesn't count towards the standings. In those twenty wins,
Speaker 1: this below five hundred team has beat the thunder twice,
Speaker 1: the Clippers twice, the Suns three times, they beat the
Speaker 1: shit out of the Pelicans, they beat the Magic, they
Speaker 1: beat the Rockets twice, they went to the to Cleveland
Speaker 1: and beat the Cavs. They've won eleven games against teams
Speaker 1: that are over five hundred. That's the eighth most in
Speaker 1: the NBA right now. That's a pretty impressive list of
Speaker 1: wins for a below five hundred team. It's very clear
Speaker 1: that this is a team that has wildly oscillating effort
Speaker 1: from night to night. So the question is why why
Speaker 1: do the Lakers do that? And the reality, in my opinion,
Speaker 1: is pretty simple. Defense is hard. This is a defensive team,
Speaker 1: and defense is hard. It takes hillacious effort and focus
Speaker 1: and energy and extra efforts and out of area plays
Speaker 1: and all these different things. And the Lakers completely relaxed
Speaker 1: after winning the n Ceason Tournament, which was one of
Speaker 1: my major concerns that I put out there right after
Speaker 1: the Dallas Mavericks game, the first game after the tournament,
Speaker 1: and I think there's a bunch of reasons for that.
Speaker 1: For starters, they all decided they didn't like their coach.
Speaker 1: I don't think Darvin is a very good NBA coach.
Speaker 1: He doesn't know how to organize offense. He struggles with
Speaker 1: lineup construction. He's super inconsistent with his rotations, which can
Speaker 1: throw his young players for loops. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: it's the player's fault too, because the players just also
Speaker 1: aren't playing hard for it. So it's a combination of
Speaker 1: like Darvin not doing a very good job, and the
Speaker 1: players not really buying in or being invested or believing
Speaker 1: in what Darvin's asking them to do. I mean again,
Speaker 1: if we really break it down on a real simple level,
Speaker 1: it's a team playing good basketball versus a team playing
Speaker 1: bad basketball. And playing good basketball and bad basketball is
Speaker 1: a combination of a bunch of factors. Right. It's a
Speaker 1: combination of the talent you have on your roster. It
Speaker 1: is a combination of lineup construction and making sure the
Speaker 1: talent fits right. It's a combination of effort and execution.
Speaker 1: It's a combination of like like rhythm and confidence right,
Speaker 1: and like what causes rhythm and confidence to change? Rhythm
Speaker 1: and confidence can be a combination of like offensive process,
Speaker 1: like making sure you get guys in the right spots.
Speaker 1: Like It could be a combination of off court work,
Speaker 1: like not putting in the necessary off court daily shooting
Speaker 1: to make sure that you're in rhythm and ready to go.
Speaker 1: It can be inconsistent rotation and a coach fucking with
Speaker 1: your minutes too much, and how that can kind of
Speaker 1: mess with things. Like all these different things lead to
Speaker 1: playing good basketball and bad basketball. And I think I
Speaker 1: think another big factor that we don't really bring up
Speaker 1: enough here is Lebron's thirty nine years old and he
Speaker 1: plays one of the most important positions in the NBA
Speaker 1: for any defense, which is that lowman position. Because of
Speaker 1: the as pull up shooters have gotten better, the centers
Speaker 1: had to come further out from the basket, which has
Speaker 1: required that lowman to be more active on the back
Speaker 1: side of the defense. And Lebron has played downright shitty
Speaker 1: defense since the n season tournament. He's capable of doing it,
Speaker 1: he is choosing not to, probably a combination of saving
Speaker 1: legs during the regular season, frustration at the situation with
Speaker 1: the roster, frustration at the situation with the coach, right
Speaker 1: because that's the other thing, there's an aura surrounding this
Speaker 1: team knowing that someone's gonna get traded at probably at
Speaker 1: least d Angela Russell, if not more so. Like as
Speaker 1: a result of that, there's just a lot of shit
Speaker 1: going on that is leading the Lakers to playing bad basketball,
Speaker 1: poor lineup construction, inconsistent rotations, bad offensive process, frustration with
Speaker 1: the coaching staff, and weirdness around the deadline, and a
Speaker 1: thirty nine year old playing one of the most important
Speaker 1: defensive positions on the team. All of that is combining
Speaker 1: to them being a really inconsistent, a really inconsistent a
Speaker 1: team since the n season tournament. Right. Another thing with
Speaker 1: Lebron being old too, is just with the offense, Like
Speaker 1: he's the one guy on the team that can consistently
Speaker 1: generate rim pressure, and so if he's not being super
Speaker 1: physically aggressive on offense, their offense can fall apart. There's
Speaker 1: been a lot of talk around the Lakers' offense this year.
Speaker 1: In seven in season tournament games, they have a one
Speaker 1: to twenty one offensive rating. Now, I still don't think
Speaker 1: their offense is good enough to win the title, but
Speaker 1: it's much better than it's look for most of the season.
Speaker 1: Because of all of those reasons that I just talked about. Now,
Speaker 1: this is one of the reasons why I feel pretty
Speaker 1: strongly about this, and one of the reasons why my
Speaker 1: opinion on the Lakers hasn't changed really at all over
Speaker 1: the course of this season, despite the ups and the downs,
Speaker 1: even it didn't really change in the ups and it
Speaker 1: didn't really change in the downs. And one of the
Speaker 1: biggest reasons is I've just seen this so many times
Speaker 1: over the course of Lebron James's career. I can think
Speaker 1: of five examples of seasons that kind of had similar
Speaker 1: vibes around this time of year. In twenty fifteen, when
Speaker 1: the Cavs traded for j R. Smith, they were nineteen
Speaker 1: and twenty at one point that season went on to
Speaker 1: make the NBA Finals. In twenty sixteen, when they wanted
Speaker 1: to fire David Blatt, they were really really ugly right
Speaker 1: around that end of December early January stretch. Not as
Speaker 1: bad as some of these other teams, but they weren't
Speaker 1: playing very very good basketball. They fired David Blatt. They
Speaker 1: go on to run to the NBA Finals. Right twenty seventeen,
Speaker 1: that team just knew that they could beat everybody in
Speaker 1: the Eastern Conference, so they didn't try for most of
Speaker 1: the regular season. In fact, they lost fourteen of their
Speaker 1: final twenty five games going into the playoffs, and then
Speaker 1: they swept everybody. If it wasn't for Avery Bradley making
Speaker 1: a game winning shot in Cleveland, which they immediately followed
Speaker 1: up by going down to Boston and beating the shit
Speaker 1: out of them in Boston, they would have swept everybody.
Speaker 1: So that team knew. This has been a consistent trait
Speaker 1: in Lebron teams. They know Lebron deep down knows that
Speaker 1: he doesn't need to necessarily live and die by every
Speaker 1: single win in the regular season, which is something that
Speaker 1: translates when he turns it on in the playoffs. Right.
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily, I will talk about this a minute.
Speaker 1: I don't necessarily think that's the best way to go
Speaker 1: about things, but that is a thing that is definitely
Speaker 1: a characteristic of Lebron James led teams over the years.
Speaker 1: In by the way twenty seventeen team went to the finals.
Speaker 1: Twenty eighteen, when Lebron was sick of Isaiah Thomas and
Speaker 1: Jay Crowder and just frustrated with the roster, they went
Speaker 1: seven to fourteen over the twenty one games before Lebron
Speaker 1: was informed about the trade, and he was playing like
Speaker 1: absolute dog shit twenty four points per game, five turnovers
Speaker 1: per game immediately after that, thirty ten to ten the
Speaker 1: rest of the way, fifty four percent from the field,
Speaker 1: thirty nine percent from three, and he had eight forty
Speaker 1: point games in the playoffs, clearly laying off in the
Speaker 1: middle of the regular season right before the deadline, clearly
Speaker 1: turning it up leading into the playoffs. That's and then
Speaker 1: last year they start two to ten from day one
Speaker 1: of training camp. Everyone knows Russell Westbrook's gonna get eventually
Speaker 1: get traded. They look absolutely lifeless in January, drop a
Speaker 1: couple of really ugly games before the deadline, and then
Speaker 1: they go on a run and make the Western Conference Finals.
Speaker 1: Four of those five examples they make the NBA Finals,
Speaker 1: one of them they win the championship, and then the
Speaker 1: one that's not in those four they make it to
Speaker 1: the Western Conference Finals. So again, this is not exactly
Speaker 1: a super uncommon trend for Lebron James led teams in January.
Speaker 1: Now there's a conversation to be had about Lebron's role
Speaker 1: in all of that. And we'd had that conversation on
Speaker 1: the show before, and so I'm not gonna do it
Speaker 1: right here just for time sake, But this is just
Speaker 1: kind of what it looks like. The point is, my
Speaker 1: opinion on the Lakers is exactly where it was before
Speaker 1: the season. I think they're a really good team that
Speaker 1: isn't as good as Boston or Denver. I was wrong
Speaker 1: about them as a regular season team. I thought they
Speaker 1: would attack the regular season from start to finish, and
Speaker 1: they did not. They took the It's very clear they
Speaker 1: took the N season tournament very seriously and not everything else.
Speaker 1: To break it down, guys, this team is literally thirteen
Speaker 1: and twenty one in non inseason tournament games, or fourteen
Speaker 1: and twenty one. They literally are fourteen and twenty one. Like,
Speaker 1: think about that. What's that forty percent? They're winning forty
Speaker 1: percent of their games? Like? Is this the kind of
Speaker 1: team that could? Is this team with Lebron James and
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis playing at the level they've been for most
Speaker 1: of the season, right, and with the positive progression of
Speaker 1: Austin Reeves and all of this athleticism, how are they
Speaker 1: fourteen and twenty one in these other games? That's a
Speaker 1: really strong indicator of that thing I'm talking about. They've taked.
Speaker 1: They took the n Season Tournament seriously. They took a
Speaker 1: couple of high profile games seriously, and that's it. If
Speaker 1: they hit with their deadline moves, that is what I
Speaker 1: think will make them. That will our opinion the Lakers
Speaker 1: should change post headline, because at that point they should
Speaker 1: lock in. We'll have a better feel for where the
Speaker 1: roster is Lebron and ad. It doesn't matter how sick
Speaker 1: of Darvin Ham they are, they're gonna have to just
Speaker 1: kind of deal with it for the rest of the season.
Speaker 1: So they'll put their head downs and they'll go to work,
Speaker 1: their heads down and they'll go to work. That's when
Speaker 1: we're gonna find out whether or not my take of
Speaker 1: the Lakers needs to go down a level or go
Speaker 1: up a level. But we're not learning anything about this
Speaker 1: team right now. I thoroughly expect them to look like
Speaker 1: shit and then look amazing like another two or three
Speaker 1: times before the deadline. They beat the Thunder, don't be
Speaker 1: surprised if they drop that game to Dallas tomorrow. Don't
Speaker 1: be surprised. They might win, but don't be surprised if
Speaker 1: they drop that game. One other thing, because again I've
Speaker 1: seen a lot of people in the comments like why
Speaker 1: is it that you use the effort excuse so much
Speaker 1: for the Lakers in particular, And the long and short
Speaker 1: of it is, it's just I'm referring specifically to my
Speaker 1: history rooting for Lebron James and my deep familiarity with
Speaker 1: this kind of phenomenon. Right that said, you're not wrong,
Speaker 1: and in my opinion, NBA history tells us that veteran
Speaker 1: teams with talent led by superstars win the title when
Speaker 1: they attack the regular season, not when they bullshit when
Speaker 1: they attack the regular season. There's been so much talk
Speaker 1: about the fatigue element of them going eighteen and eight
Speaker 1: post deadline last year. I would argue them going eighteen
Speaker 1: and eight post headline last year is why they went
Speaker 1: to the playoffs and made it to the Western Conference Finals.
Speaker 1: They practiced playing really good basketball for a long time.
Speaker 1: There was a clip going around on Instagram today or
Speaker 1: last night of Dan Campbell and it was in preseason,
Speaker 1: I believe, and I don't know what the background was,
Speaker 1: but it seemed as though players were complaining about doing
Speaker 1: too much contact practice and Dan Campbell goes like, listen, like,
Speaker 1: I think about you guys every single day. I'm always
Speaker 1: worried about where your bodies are at making sure you
Speaker 1: stay healthy. But we have to practice playing contact football.
Speaker 1: He's like, otherwise it'll take eight weeks for us to
Speaker 1: get used to hitting people. That kind of process is
Speaker 1: a similar belief I have about winning championships in the NBA. Yes,
Speaker 1: it is smarter on your bodies to chill more during
Speaker 1: the regular season, and even that's debatable by the way,
Speaker 1: even the NBA came out and was like, load management
Speaker 1: is not proven to decrease the risk of injuries, And
Speaker 1: I would argue playing not hard is that a great
Speaker 1: way to get yourself hurt. But like, at the end
Speaker 1: of the day, even if we accepted that as a reality,
Speaker 1: in my opinion, the benefits of building a championship identity,
Speaker 1: of building championship habits, making it habitual for you to
Speaker 1: focus and to give those extra efforts and to bring
Speaker 1: it on a nightly basis is the kind of thing
Speaker 1: that will help you down the line when you get
Speaker 1: into the postseason. I mean, even in the playoffs last year,
Speaker 1: do you remember the first two series the Lakers literally
Speaker 1: played the same every single game in the series. They'd
Speaker 1: come out in Game one with a hilatious effort and
Speaker 1: they'd win. Then they'd punt game two. Then they'd come
Speaker 1: out in Game three with a hilatious effort and they'd
Speaker 1: win big at home. Then in game four be this
Speaker 1: crazy rockfight of a game, they'd pull it out. Then
Speaker 1: in game five on the road, they'd punt, and then
Speaker 1: they'd come home games in game six with a hilatious
Speaker 1: effort and they'd win convincingly. That's literally how both the
Speaker 1: Grizzlies and Warrior series went. And then they ran into
Speaker 1: a team that's better than them that it took the
Speaker 1: regular season far more seriously, and they weren't able to
Speaker 1: play that game. It worked against the young team, it
Speaker 1: worked against the other older veteran team that struggled in
Speaker 1: the regular season, and then it didn't work against the
Speaker 1: veteran team that attacked the regular season. So why am
Speaker 1: I saying all that? I won't think the Lakers have
Speaker 1: a real chance to win the title unless they have
Speaker 1: a similar stretch before the playoffs this year. They need
Speaker 1: to have like a twenty five game stretch where they win.
Speaker 1: You know, sixteen seventeen, eighteen, nineteen games something like that,
Speaker 1: where over an extended stretch they play really good basketball.
Speaker 1: That is a prerequisite, in my opinion, if they want
Speaker 1: to hoist the trophy, because otherwise they'll either lose in
Speaker 1: the play in or they'll lose in the first round
Speaker 1: because they will come into the playoffs playing bad basketball.
Speaker 1: They have to again, they have to ramp up at
Speaker 1: some point. We're now halfway through the season, and they
Speaker 1: did it briefly for the n Sason Tournament, and they've
Speaker 1: basically punted since then, and so again, my opinion hasn't changed,
Speaker 1: but it will change post deadline based on the personnel
Speaker 1: and whether or not they can put together an extended
Speaker 1: stretch of good basketball to build the habits they need
Speaker 1: to build in order to win an NBA championship. All right,
Speaker 1: let's move on to Draymont and his return to the Warriors.
Speaker 1: So Dreiman had a quote after the game saying, we
Speaker 1: can't check, we can't guard as really ugly loss for
Speaker 1: the Warriors last night in Memphis against a team without
Speaker 1: Desmond Baine, John Moran or Marcus Smart. But that was
Speaker 1: kind of a vague answer from Draymond about their defense,
Speaker 1: and so I wanted to do a deep dive into
Speaker 1: the specific run of the game when they blew it
Speaker 1: was a seventeen point swing. They went up seven in
Speaker 1: the late third quarter on a Jonathan Kminga transition dunk.
Speaker 1: Yet they were down ten with about seven minutes left
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. So they were outscored by seventeen
Speaker 1: in a short window, and I wanted to zoom in
Speaker 1: on the defensive possessions, each one, at least each one
Speaker 1: of the the buckets that Memphis got to see what
Speaker 1: specifically was going wrong with Golden State's defense. Take a
Speaker 1: little bit of a deep dive there. So, first of all,
Speaker 1: when they were up seven on Kaminga's transition dunk, the
Speaker 1: Grizzlies got two quick threes to end the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: based on overhelp situations. There was a double team of
Speaker 1: Jared Jackson that led to a rotation and lesser Kenona
Speaker 1: has had a David Roddy contained literally cut him off,
Speaker 1: but Jonathan kaminga strong side corner, for whatever reason, just
Speaker 1: decided to double team David Roddy even though Kenonis didn't
Speaker 1: not need help, and there was a quick easy kickout
Speaker 1: to the corner to Jacob Gilliard who made a three.
Speaker 1: Very next possession, Jonathan Kmica, I think of Sarage turns
Speaker 1: it over on the baseline and a Jaron Jackson kind
Speaker 1: of in transition is driving and they got him contained.
Speaker 1: I think it was Tray Jackson. Davis at this point
Speaker 1: has him contained in Sarage overhelps and leaves David Roddy
Speaker 1: top of the key. And again there's a difference between
Speaker 1: guy has an angle and you're swinging down to kind
Speaker 1: of disrupt that angle, and like guy has chested the
Speaker 1: off the player up and has him squared up and
Speaker 1: he has no advantage, and now you're just helping for
Speaker 1: no reason. Right, two quick threes. Now it's a one
Speaker 1: point game. Also, was a tough lineup offensively for Golden
Speaker 1: stated that stretch it was Jonathan Kaminga, Brandon Pazemski, dariosar
Speaker 1: Tray s Jackson, Davis, and Lester Knonez. There's not a
Speaker 1: single top one hundred NBA player in that group, so
Speaker 1: there's a talent element there. That's a great example of
Speaker 1: why trading for a higher level player is so necessary
Speaker 1: for this team, because it'll give him the ability to
Speaker 1: stagger and have more talent on the floor in some
Speaker 1: of these lineups. Right then, to start the fourth quarter,
Speaker 1: Draymond Green had a bad close out on Zaia Williams
Speaker 1: on the right wing where he kind of chased him
Speaker 1: off the line and then reached behind him, and as
Speaker 1: a result, instead of closing out short and or shorter
Speaker 1: and containing, he reached zayre Drove, got a blocking foul,
Speaker 1: got two free throws. Grizzlies take the lead. Then there
Speaker 1: was a bomb over Dariosarge from Jacob Gilliard, really good
Speaker 1: defense the whole possession just a tough, like twenty seven
Speaker 1: foot contested three, so you live with that one. Right
Speaker 1: after that, Brandon Pizemski was guarding Luke Canard out of
Speaker 1: the left corner and fell asleep for a second, was
Speaker 1: late chasing him off the screen, had to panic chase
Speaker 1: him and fouls a three point shooter that took away
Speaker 1: a three that steph had just made it three on
Speaker 1: the other end. Now Canard goes down and makes three
Speaker 1: free throws. Then there was a transition possession where Clay
Speaker 1: kind of faces faces up Jake Gilliard and he hits
Speaker 1: a little jab step jumper, but he misses it off
Speaker 1: the back room. On the other side of the floor.
Speaker 1: Pazemski was back screening for Steph below the foul line,
Speaker 1: and so the guy he was screening they switched it.
Speaker 1: The guy who was screening was on his top side
Speaker 1: and the other guy went with Steph, so suddenly they
Speaker 1: just had a quick two on one the other way.
Speaker 1: Kamingo was the only one back. It was really bad
Speaker 1: floor balance, quick swing swing ahead passed. Zira Williams gets
Speaker 1: a left handed layup. That's bad offense leading to transition,
Speaker 1: like an unbalanced floor leading to an easy transition layup.
Speaker 1: Then there were a couple of plays here where Cavan
Speaker 1: Looney came way too high out of his drive coverage.
Speaker 1: So Canard runs a dribble hand off with Xavier Tilman
Speaker 1: throws it to Canard, comes over the top Brandon Pazemski's
Speaker 1: in trail position. He's there, but Looney comes way up,
Speaker 1: which allows Tillman to get beneath him, which forces Kaminga
Speaker 1: to tag the roller. There's a swing pass out to
Speaker 1: that corner. Gigi Jackson knocks down the three on the
Speaker 1: week side. Now Kaminga got a decent late contest on
Speaker 1: that one. But this season, Gigi Jackson is nine for
Speaker 1: eighteen on catch and shoot threes. That's a seventy five
Speaker 1: percent effective field goal percentage. So obviously not the guy
Speaker 1: you want to leave open in that situation. You want
Speaker 1: to not let the roller get behind. Your job there
Speaker 1: is Looney is to stay further back, trust Pazemski to
Speaker 1: be able to disrupt any mid range shot or floater
Speaker 1: from the Canard. If as long as Looney stays back
Speaker 1: where he can see both of Tillman and Canard, then
Speaker 1: Kaminga doesn't have to tag the roller and he could
Speaker 1: stay home and prevent that shot. Right right after that shot,
Speaker 1: Steph dribbles up the floor and get it's ripped by JAKEM.
Speaker 1: Gilliard for a pick six, which, by the way, Steph
Speaker 1: got ripped in the back court twice down the stretch,
Speaker 1: which is super bizarre. Now the Warriors are down six.
Speaker 1: Next defensive possession, same exact thing. The only difference is
Speaker 1: this time Cominga's on Canard and Steph is guarding Gigi Jackson.
Speaker 1: Same exact thing. Canard's over Kaminga's over the top great athlete.
Speaker 1: Canard shoots a floater or a pull up jump shot.
Speaker 1: Kaminga is blocking that, but Loony comes way up out
Speaker 1: of his drop coverage, forces Steph to come down to
Speaker 1: tag the roller. Kaminga peels off to go down and
Speaker 1: crack Steph out of that position. Steph goes back to
Speaker 1: close out, but he's too slow. Gigi Jackson makes another
Speaker 1: three and again, making half of them this year. Then
Speaker 1: Kaminga is posting up on the left block. This is
Speaker 1: an offensive possession for the Warriors, and I actually clip
Speaker 1: this plane put on my Twitter feed. Steph is screaming
Speaker 1: and pointing at Pazemski because he's wide open. He's drawn
Speaker 1: a double team. Kamina is not looking. The double team
Speaker 1: probably would have led to a rotation that would have
Speaker 1: got Steph a wide open three in the right corner. Instead,
Speaker 1: Kaminga turns it over and they go down the floor
Speaker 1: in transition and Canard gets a three. Now it's a
Speaker 1: ten point lead with seven minutes left. You'll notice I
Speaker 1: didn't say anything about guys getting toasted off the dribble,
Speaker 1: did I? I didn't say anything about guys getting physically overwhelmed.
Speaker 1: This is execution stuff. That's a seventeen point swing mostly
Speaker 1: off of execution. Golden State has good defensive personnel. Draymond
Speaker 1: Green is still one of the best defensive anchors in
Speaker 1: the league. They have athletes on the perimeter like Andrew
Speaker 1: Wiggins and Jonathan Kminga and Moses Moody. Brandon Pazemski is
Speaker 1: a good young point of attack defender. Stephan Clay are
Speaker 1: two really smart team defenders. Most of this is execution.
Speaker 1: It was bad offense putting them into misbalanced transition defense
Speaker 1: situations to give up open shots. And then it was
Speaker 1: mistakes over helping strong side corner one pass away Looney,
Speaker 1: too high in his drop coverage, Brandon Pazemski falling asleep
Speaker 1: off the ball and having to foul a three point shooter,
Speaker 1: Dario Sarage, over helping in a transition situation, a bad
Speaker 1: close out from Draymond Green. These are all fixable problems,
Speaker 1: which takes me back to the theme that I was
Speaker 1: talking about in the Laker segment at the top of
Speaker 1: the show. Golden State has been playing bad basketball, like
Speaker 1: from the top down that the lineup construction isn't working,
Speaker 1: the effort in execution isn't there, the buying isn't there,
Speaker 1: the inconsistent rotation is leading to the young players struggling
Speaker 1: on a night to night basis. It's a coaching issue.
Speaker 1: Steph's playing like shit. Oh, They're three to eight in
Speaker 1: their last eleven games. Steph in that span twenty two
Speaker 1: point five points per game, only three rebounds, thirty eight
Speaker 1: percent from the field, thirty three percent from three. Kurr's
Speaker 1: not doing a good enough job. Steph Curry's not doing
Speaker 1: a good enough job. Draymond Green took himself away from
Speaker 1: the team for a month, like this is a lot
Speaker 1: of this is self inflicted. Three things need to happen
Speaker 1: for Golden State to turn this year around. In my opinion,
Speaker 1: One line up, consistency until the deadline. Get Draymond back
Speaker 1: in with the starters. I personally would go with Draymond,
Speaker 1: Kmingo Wig and Steph Clay. I'd ride dead out until
Speaker 1: the deadline. But no matter what, get consistent rotation minutes
Speaker 1: for the young players so that they can build confidence
Speaker 1: and rhythm, not constantly staring at the bench terrified they're
Speaker 1: gonna get taken out if they make a mistake. Let
Speaker 1: them play free. Secondly, Steph's got to get it together.
Speaker 1: Went over the numbers earlier. I'm sure he's frustrated and
Speaker 1: annoyed at the situation. I'm sure there's a little bit
Speaker 1: of that Lebron stuff I'm talking about with mid season
Speaker 1: malaise and frustration with the roster. He's not been good
Speaker 1: on defense or on the glass either, So like Steph
Speaker 1: at a certain point needs to kind of be like
Speaker 1: he needs to get some sort of assurance from the
Speaker 1: front office they're gonna do something. Then he needs to
Speaker 1: lock in and try to win as many games as
Speaker 1: possible until February eighth, and then lastly, they need to
Speaker 1: trade for a high level starter at the deadline. I
Speaker 1: actually think they have a decent shot at Siakam. I've
Speaker 1: seen some of the proposed offers. A lot of teams are
Speaker 1: pulling punches. There's the extension thing. I think they have
Speaker 1: a decent shot to get him, and he'd face. He'd
Speaker 1: help in every single phase of the game. He'd help
Speaker 1: with their defensive front line, he'd help with slotting in
Speaker 1: perimeter defense. He'd help with them on the glass. He'd
Speaker 1: help them with slotting on offense so that you don't
Speaker 1: have guys above their pay grade on offense. He'd help
Speaker 1: them with staggering and non Steph lineups. He'd help lighten
Speaker 1: Steph's workloads so he doesn't have to do as much offensively,
Speaker 1: especially over the course of a playoff series. A guy
Speaker 1: like Siakam would help with everything. And then from there,
Speaker 1: you do what the Lakers did last year, and you
Speaker 1: make a run. You play really good basketball for twenty
Speaker 1: five games to end the season, and then you roll
Speaker 1: that momentum into the playoffs. I mean, I just want
Speaker 1: to see it. I don't know about you, guys. I'm
Speaker 1: a I'm a fan of the game, and I'm a
Speaker 1: fan of Steph. He's my second favorite player in the league.
Speaker 1: That said, I'm not one of those guys who has
Speaker 1: a deep rooting interest in the Warriors. That said, like,
Speaker 1: I'm just not ready for this to be over. I
Speaker 1: want to see them give it one more chance, especially
Speaker 1: with how frustrating last year was. I want to see
Speaker 1: them retool and I want to see them give it
Speaker 1: a chance. All right, before we get out of here,
Speaker 1: I wanted to talk. I wanted to rant for just
Speaker 1: a few minutes about the analytics side of things. This
Speaker 1: is something that I've seen throughout the season from every
Speaker 1: single team. I've seen Lakers fans talk about it. I've
Speaker 1: seen Lakers fans talk about it with their opponents, with
Speaker 1: their own teammates. I've seen it around the league. I've
Speaker 1: seen Clippers fans talk about it. I've seen Thunder fans
Speaker 1: talk about it. I've seen Warriors fans talk about it. I've
Speaker 1: seen everybody talk about it, this idea of like we're
Speaker 1: just making shots or we're just missing shots. And again,
Speaker 1: I wanted to clarify this because I think it can
Speaker 1: get a little confusing. I don't think shot variants doesn't
Speaker 1: play a role in basketball games. Of course it does,
Speaker 1: like it would be foolish to pretend like it doesn't.
Speaker 1: What my take is is that it's being overused in analysis.
Speaker 1: I saw someone tweeted this at me this morning, and
Speaker 1: I thought it was a really interesting thing. It was
Speaker 1: Patrick Beverley, apparently in his podcast, talking about how, like
Speaker 1: I guess, Dame had a sixty point game. I think
Speaker 1: it was a couple of years ago, and then Pat
Speaker 1: Bev kind of like locked him up, I guess, And
Speaker 1: I haven't done the background research here, so he might
Speaker 1: literally be full of shit for all I know, But
Speaker 1: like I guess, Pat Bev was like like the discourse
Speaker 1: around the league is like, oh, Dame just missed shots
Speaker 1: when he was guarding me, and that doesn't give me
Speaker 1: credit me being pat for the job that I did
Speaker 1: on him. And in general, I agree with Pat in
Speaker 1: terms of the way the game is discussed. Way too frequently,
Speaker 1: we just default back to make or miss league, did
Speaker 1: you make your shots or did you miss your shots?
Speaker 1: And that becomes the biggest thing we talk about as
Speaker 1: opposed to being one of the many things that we
Speaker 1: talk about. And you know, I use the phrase loser mentality,
Speaker 1: and the main reason why I feel that way it
Speaker 1: has to do with my kind of background, right Like,
Speaker 1: I helped coach high school kids and I played in college.
Speaker 1: So I'm always gonna look at it from the perspective
Speaker 1: of inside the locker room. I'm always gonna look at
Speaker 1: it as the perspective of what a coach would think,
Speaker 1: what a player would think. And a lot of it
Speaker 1: is stuff that's changed for me over the years. When
Speaker 1: I was in my early twenties, I made excuses, blamed
Speaker 1: the refs, blame shots not missing or not going in.
Speaker 1: I was that kind of guy. Over the years, I've
Speaker 1: kind of learned, like, hey, that's not helping me. Complaining
Speaker 1: about the refs does not help me in any way
Speaker 1: making and missing shots. Blaming that that based on variance
Speaker 1: is not helping me in any way. You know, it's funny.
Speaker 1: I'm coming back from this Achilles injury that I've told
Speaker 1: you guys about, and it's been a chore. It's been
Speaker 1: an absolute chore dealing with conditioning issues like little muscle
Speaker 1: strains here and there, as I had to take a
Speaker 1: couple of months off and then you start moving again
Speaker 1: and you start suffering these old nagging injuries. Me not
Speaker 1: really trusting my right foot to like plant really heavily
Speaker 1: and to take off on it. But like the biggest
Speaker 1: thing is like shooting and shooting and ball handling. My
Speaker 1: rhythms disrupted as I'm trying to get that back right.
Speaker 1: And I've been recently going through a stretch where i
Speaker 1: haven't been shooting the ball very well. And you know,
Speaker 1: it's funny. I was literally sitting in the truck today
Speaker 1: and I was like, I knows actly why I'm not
Speaker 1: shooting well. Like I have a religious shooting routine that
Speaker 1: I do, like when I'm in my groove, literally six
Speaker 1: seven days a week, I do the same damn set
Speaker 1: of shooting drills every single day. But I went skiing
Speaker 1: last week, and before that, I heavily loaded up on
Speaker 1: content in preparation for me going skiing, and so I
Speaker 1: only did the shooting workout like once in like a
Speaker 1: six day span, and I'm sitting there and I'm like, no, wonder,
Speaker 1: I'm missing shots, Like I am not doing the process
Speaker 1: things I need to do to be a good shooter,
Speaker 1: because I'm very much a rhythm shooter. I'm a guy
Speaker 1: who has to work on it constantly in order to
Speaker 1: be able to shoot. And again, like when you're looking
Speaker 1: at all the different things that impact shooting in a game, confidence, rhythm,
Speaker 1: the physicality of the game, your offensive process, the types
Speaker 1: of shots are getting both on a team level and
Speaker 1: on an individual shot selection level. What I just mentioned
Speaker 1: in terms of off court work, the dill to polish
Speaker 1: and to make sure you're ready. I think all of
Speaker 1: that stuff comes before we get to Luck. But what
Speaker 1: happens is is the way the game is discussed, Luck
Speaker 1: is first on that list, and I think that does
Speaker 1: a disservice to fans everywhere. I think it's a I
Speaker 1: think it is it limits our ability to digest what's
Speaker 1: happening on the court. I saw on the Thunder game
Speaker 1: last night, I was like, this is I watch so
Speaker 1: many games right obviously as my job, and I'm always
Speaker 1: listening to these local broadcasters. I'm listening to the Bucks broadcasters,
Speaker 1: I'm listening to the Clippers broadcasters. I'm listening to the
Speaker 1: you know, Orlando Magic broadcasters, and you know, this morning,
Speaker 1: I'm watching Lakers Thunder and I'm listening to the Thunder
Speaker 1: broadcasts and they're like, oh, they're just missing shots. They're
Speaker 1: just missing shots. And I'm like, the Lakers have sixty
Speaker 1: something points in the paint. They're literally pulverizing the Thunder
Speaker 1: on all these cuts. They're straight up alpha dogging them
Speaker 1: and playing bullyball, so they're wearing them out. They're both
Speaker 1: on a physical wear and tear level and like a
Speaker 1: conditioning fatigue level. They're just bigger. So like defender proximity
Speaker 1: as it pertains to shot values different when it's a taller,
Speaker 1: longer armed player contesting the shot right. And then there's
Speaker 1: like a confidence piece, there's like an alpha dog piece.
Speaker 1: There's like you tend to make more shots when you
Speaker 1: are in a better rhythm and flow, when you're controlling
Speaker 1: the physicality of the game and you look at the
Speaker 1: stars of the other team and you're like, yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: better than that guy. But when that that dynamic shifts,
Speaker 1: shots do miss, and again, it's just amazing to me
Speaker 1: that we don't factor in all that stuff. We go
Speaker 1: straight to luck. I can't tell you how many times
Speaker 1: I've seen Laker fans be like, I can't believe teams
Speaker 1: are making all these shots against us. Have you watched
Speaker 1: the Lakers play defense since in the N season tournament,
Speaker 1: like I've seen I saw a Laker. Remember me early
Speaker 1: in the season, when I was talking about the Lakers
Speaker 1: bad shooting, I was like, it's bad process. They're not
Speaker 1: getting really good looks. Like it's just it's just I
Speaker 1: would like to, at least within this show, not do that. Like,
Speaker 1: of course it's a factor. Of course it's part of
Speaker 1: the game, but we lean on it way too heavily,
Speaker 1: and it's quite simply like the fifth or sixth most
Speaker 1: important factor in a shot result is luck. Did that
Speaker 1: dude hit the gym before the game and make his
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty three pointers? Did he do it yesterday?
Speaker 1: On his day off was the team running smart offense,
Speaker 1: was the individual player taking smart shots. Was the opponent
Speaker 1: doing anything to disrupt that defensively with their physicality, with
Speaker 1: their alpha dog mentality, to disrupt confidence. All of that
Speaker 1: comes first, and then we can talk about luck. It's
Speaker 1: part of the game, but it's way too big of
Speaker 1: the of the way we cover it, way too big
Speaker 1: of a part of the way we cover the game.
Speaker 1: All right, guys, it's all hal for today. I want
Speaker 1: to hit more games from last night. It's late, and
Speaker 1: I talk some more stuff in general around the league,
Speaker 1: but we're gonna hit it tomorrow. I had to get
Speaker 1: this video in early because tonight the volume on the
Speaker 1: East Coast is doing their annual party for all the
Speaker 1: staff that works on the East Coast, and a lot
Speaker 1: of the staff that works on this show lives on
Speaker 1: the East Coast, so I needed to get it in
Speaker 1: early for those guys. That's why we rushed Lakers Warriors today.
Speaker 1: We will hit a bunch more teams tomorrow, including the Mailbag.
Speaker 1: My wife's out of town for a work trip, so
Speaker 1: I plan on staying up at night to watch some games.
Speaker 1: I plan on working tomorrow night to cover MAVs Lakers,
Speaker 1: so it's gonna be a lot of content coming out
Speaker 1: before I leave town on the ski trip on Saturday.
Speaker 1: I genuinely appreciate you guys and everything you do to
Speaker 1: support the show. I'll see you guys tomorrow. The volume