WEBVTT - What the NBA Bubble Can Teach Us 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:05.640 Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's stayed two and 0:00:05.720 --> 0:00:11.720 nineteen since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 0:00:12.680 --> 0:00:16.439 The NBA Championships this week were caused for celebration for 0:00:16.560 --> 0:00:21.120 Lakers fans, but they also marked a victory over the virus. 0:00:22.040 --> 0:00:25.880 The league's bubble strategy resulted in not a single COVID 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:31.639 infection among players or staff. So how well do bubbles 0:00:31.680 --> 0:00:35.479 work and what can we learn from them? But first, 0:00:36.120 --> 0:00:44.760 here's what happened in virus news today. Vizer said it 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:48.920 could seek emergency use authorization for its COVID nineteen vaccine 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:53.040 in the US as soon as late November. That's if 0:00:53.080 --> 0:00:55.400 the shot is shown to be effective in a large 0:00:55.680 --> 0:01:00.600 late stage trial. That timing squelches any notion that a 0:01:00.680 --> 0:01:04.720 vaccine could be cleared in the US before election day. 0:01:05.080 --> 0:01:08.440 The timeline will be dictated by safety reviews, with the 0:01:08.480 --> 0:01:11.880 Food and Drug Administration requiring that at least half the 0:01:11.920 --> 0:01:16.200 study participants be watched for side effects for two months. 0:01:17.480 --> 0:01:21.120 That milestone should be achieved in the third week of November. 0:01:21.480 --> 0:01:24.759 According to an open letter published on the company's website 0:01:24.760 --> 0:01:30.039 today from viser chief Executive Officer Albert Boula. Residents in 0:01:30.120 --> 0:01:33.720 London and Paris are bracing for tighter curbs on social 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:38.800 activity starting tomorrow. Governments across Europe are attempting to get 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:43.880 a new wave of coronavirus infections in check without crippling 0:01:43.880 --> 0:01:48.600 their economies. Cases are heading daily records around the region, 0:01:48.960 --> 0:01:52.840 and Britain and France are two of the worst affected nations. 0:01:53.920 --> 0:01:57.720 Londoners will be banned from mixing with other households indoors, 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:01.680 while the residents of Paris and eight other major cities 0:02:01.720 --> 0:02:04.760 in France will be confined to their homes at night 0:02:05.160 --> 0:02:10.359 for four weeks. Finally, a new study that has not 0:02:10.440 --> 0:02:14.320 yet been peer reviewed suggests the drug m desevie has 0:02:14.440 --> 0:02:19.080 no substantial effect on a patient's chances of survival. A 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:22.600 clinical trial by the World Health Organization that studied rum 0:02:22.639 --> 0:02:27.679 desevere and several other anti viral treatments, including hydroxy chloroquine, 0:02:27.680 --> 0:02:34.400 opinevere and interferon, found that none substantially affected mortality reduced 0:02:34.520 --> 0:02:38.840 the need for ventilators. According to the Financial Times, results 0:02:38.919 --> 0:02:41.720 also showed that the drugs had little effect on how 0:02:41.800 --> 0:02:50.280 long patients stayed in the hospital and now for today's 0:02:50.320 --> 0:02:54.840 main story. The Los Angeles Lakers took home the NBA 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:59.040 championship this week, but the close of the season also 0:02:59.160 --> 0:03:03.480 marked a bigctory for the league itself. The NBA played 0:03:03.520 --> 0:03:06.640 its finals in a unique environment that came to be 0:03:06.720 --> 0:03:11.720 known as the Bubble. Players were frequently tested and social 0:03:11.760 --> 0:03:16.920 distancing was heavily enforced, and the experiment worked. The NBA 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:21.160 did not report a single positive coronavirus case from players 0:03:21.280 --> 0:03:25.480 or staff. I spoke to reporters am A. Court and 0:03:25.600 --> 0:03:28.760 Brandon catch cod In about what's next for the league 0:03:29.200 --> 0:03:36.120 and whether other organizations can replicate its success. The NBA 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:39.920 kept teams on the Disney World grounds and used wearable 0:03:40.000 --> 0:03:45.120 technology like the Aora ring, which claims to detect early symptoms. 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:50.480 They were also tested nearly every day using highly sensitive tests. 0:03:51.400 --> 0:03:57.320 Have any other sports leagues used similar measures? Yeah? I think. 0:03:57.400 --> 0:03:59.760 I think there's been debates about whether the or ring 0:03:59.800 --> 0:04:05.080 actually works in terms of determining the early onset. What 0:04:05.400 --> 0:04:07.800 was picked up on by other leagues though, UM, the 0:04:07.960 --> 0:04:12.840 NFL and UH the Southeastern Conference in college football were 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:17.520 a similar technology called these connects on devices, and that 0:04:17.640 --> 0:04:21.080 was it was basically, UM, you know, a wearable contact 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:25.280 tracing device, and so it would you know, it like 0:04:25.400 --> 0:04:28.360 lights up when people get within six ft of each other. 0:04:29.000 --> 0:04:32.599 It keeps track of whether people are able to enter 0:04:33.040 --> 0:04:36.400 certain parts of a building or the stadium, and then 0:04:36.480 --> 0:04:41.080 obviously attracts who were you close by. So certain elements 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:43.800 of this are found, um, like I said, in the 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:47.560 NFL and in college football. But whether the or ring 0:04:47.680 --> 0:04:51.040 was able to actually detect early on set of symptoms, 0:04:51.279 --> 0:04:54.080 I think that's still up for debate and sort of questionable. 0:04:54.640 --> 0:04:56.920 And this is like the Holy Grail, right, We're talking 0:04:56.960 --> 0:05:00.680 about figuring out if people are sick, tracking people who 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:03.719 are sick using technology. This is something that would be 0:05:03.760 --> 0:05:07.640 really widely applicable if we can figure out that it works. 0:05:07.760 --> 0:05:10.880 And I think what's interesting about why you're seeing these 0:05:11.000 --> 0:05:14.240 groups being used to test out the technology is that 0:05:14.360 --> 0:05:17.880 other parts of society aren't being tested nearly as much. Right, 0:05:17.920 --> 0:05:20.400 we don't have this kind of data on on you know, 0:05:20.560 --> 0:05:24.520 less valuable athletes for instance, are regular people walking around 0:05:24.520 --> 0:05:27.599 in the US. Yeah, that's a great point. I'm with. 0:05:28.160 --> 0:05:29.680 You know, this is one of the things the NBA 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.640 has kind of consistently tried to put out there is 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:36.120 that you know, in the wake of the controversy around 0:05:36.200 --> 0:05:39.880 should athletes testing be prioritized in this issue of you know, 0:05:39.960 --> 0:05:43.320 whether they're daily testing regiment was taking up you know, 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:47.960 valuable laboratory capacity from the general public. Their argument has 0:05:48.000 --> 0:05:50.919 always been, we're in a sense of laboratory and we're 0:05:50.960 --> 0:05:53.000 you know, kind of not that they've used the term, 0:05:53.000 --> 0:05:55.560 but in a sense guinea pigs for some of these 0:05:55.720 --> 0:05:59.800 technologies and strategies. And you know, we saw that with 0:05:59.800 --> 0:06:02.719 their they're teaming up with the Yale Laboratory around the 0:06:02.720 --> 0:06:05.599 saliva testing, which you know, the NBA has been very 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:08.720 proud and sort of tout that advancement. I just wanted 0:06:08.760 --> 0:06:12.400 to piggyback off of that, which is a really good point, Brandon. 0:06:12.480 --> 0:06:17.560 And actually a new kind of coronavirus test was pioneered 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:21.360 using the NBA. It's uh, you may have heard of it. 0:06:21.360 --> 0:06:24.800 It's affiliated with Yale as well. Um and this test 0:06:24.880 --> 0:06:29.520 uses saliva to detect um COVID nineteen. And what's really 0:06:29.520 --> 0:06:33.000 interesting about it, and we've seen some other, um, you know, 0:06:33.120 --> 0:06:35.760 versions of this test being used at the University of 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:40.000 Illinois at Champagne Urbana for instance, is that this test 0:06:40.120 --> 0:06:42.920 lets you kind of skip a step as you process 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:46.679 the test, so it allows for much faster turnaround time. 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.440 It's easy to collect, right you spit into a tube 0:06:49.880 --> 0:06:54.560 UM and it's really quite cheap. And it also allows 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:59.279 you to use different kinds of brands of testing equipment 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:01.800 UM in your while processing it in the lab, so 0:07:02.440 --> 0:07:05.200 you don't need to be reliable on a single source 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:08.080 for these chemicals called reagents for instance. It kind of 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:12.000 hacks the traditional PCR test model and makes it a 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:15.840 lot cheaper, easier to process, and you know, more accessible. 0:07:16.480 --> 0:07:21.080 And so, you know, continuing on that topic, it does 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:24.520 seem that with all this technology, all this kind of 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:29.680 investment in testing, the NBA didn't report one single positive 0:07:29.680 --> 0:07:34.040 coronavirus case. I mean, what do you think what made 0:07:34.080 --> 0:07:39.320 the bubble so successful? I mean, if I think it's 0:07:39.320 --> 0:07:42.080 mostly that they had control of their environment, and you 0:07:42.120 --> 0:07:45.679 know they had the daily testing, but you know, people 0:07:45.720 --> 0:07:48.480 from Disney coming in, coming out, they were tested. You know, 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:51.760 the contact with other people was limited. The NBA took 0:07:51.840 --> 0:07:54.960 very seriously that when people left the bubble they had 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:57.920 to go into Attende quarantine. So they were super strict 0:07:57.920 --> 0:08:00.560 about these things. And you know, they did something that 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:04.840 everyday Americans can't do. And that's you know, totally control 0:08:04.960 --> 0:08:09.040 the environment. And they had access to resources that, as 0:08:09.080 --> 0:08:13.160 you point out, many Americans don't have access to, you know, 0:08:13.240 --> 0:08:17.040 being able to quarantine before you go to work, for instance, 0:08:17.160 --> 0:08:19.440 or as you leave work and go into the community, 0:08:19.520 --> 0:08:22.680 Like that's pretty amazing. And um, I think also the 0:08:22.720 --> 0:08:24.680 access to testing is a big one. I mean, we've 0:08:24.680 --> 0:08:28.200 seen that overall picture change a lot. In the US, 0:08:28.240 --> 0:08:30.800 there's a lot better access to testing, especially if you're 0:08:31.360 --> 0:08:35.720 symptomatic person. But you know, testing people, you know, as 0:08:35.800 --> 0:08:40.120 frequently as every other day, that's not something that's even 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:42.720 close to the reality for most people in the United States. 0:08:42.720 --> 0:08:46.040 Most people in the United States maybe they've been tested once, 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:49.160 if at all. And let's think about it also in 0:08:49.280 --> 0:08:53.320 terms of other sports leagues, you know, other sports other 0:08:53.720 --> 0:08:57.800 um safe professional college sports are having a real tough 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:03.960 time with preventing outbreaks, preventing positive cases. Is it possible 0:09:04.000 --> 0:09:07.240 for other leagues to create their own bubbles that are 0:09:07.320 --> 0:09:10.560 as successful as the NBA's has been. Well, we saw 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:13.680 the NHL do a similar bubble. They just had it 0:09:13.760 --> 0:09:17.760 on across two cities in Edmonton and Toronto. So there's 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:21.680 a parallel there. But with regard to things like baseball 0:09:21.720 --> 0:09:24.240 in the NFL, you know, there are disadvantages that the 0:09:24.320 --> 0:09:26.640 NBA didn't have, and and some of those are just 0:09:27.040 --> 0:09:30.480 you know, bigger roster sizes mean many more people that 0:09:30.720 --> 0:09:34.559 you know would have to be included in a bubble. Um. 0:09:34.760 --> 0:09:37.319 Baseball plays sixty games. I mean, the the NBA and 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:39.800 the NHL had an advantage where they were very close 0:09:39.800 --> 0:09:42.800 to their playoffs, so this wasn't something where they would 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:44.640 have to play, you know, in the NFL's case, like 0:09:44.679 --> 0:09:48.760 a regular season of four or five months. Um. And 0:09:49.840 --> 0:09:52.000 the other thing is just you know, Disney took the 0:09:52.040 --> 0:09:54.240 prime real estate here. I mean, you couldn't have hoped 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.520 for anywhere better than than Disney, where you have all 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:00.320 these hotels, you have the capacity to have the many 0:10:00.360 --> 0:10:03.200 people on site. Um. For someone like baseball, I mean, 0:10:03.240 --> 0:10:06.280 there's just no there was no equivalent place to go. 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:09.559 I mean some of the early talk was about putting 0:10:09.600 --> 0:10:12.560 all these teams in Arizona. Well, they would have been 0:10:12.559 --> 0:10:15.120 playing the season in July and August in Arizona and 0:10:15.120 --> 0:10:18.200 there's only one temperature controlled stadium there. So you know 0:10:18.240 --> 0:10:21.200 the idea of having a bunch of these uh, these 0:10:21.240 --> 0:10:25.760 games held when temperatures are a hundred hundred five ten degrees. Uh, 0:10:25.920 --> 0:10:29.120 you know, quickly sort of becomes inconceivable. And then with 0:10:29.160 --> 0:10:32.400 the NFL, I mean again, it's just the sheer size 0:10:32.400 --> 0:10:36.640 of these rosters and the idea of where are you 0:10:36.679 --> 0:10:39.240 going to find enough football fields? I mean, just just 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:41.120 thinking about it in terms of the size of a 0:10:41.120 --> 0:10:44.880 football field versus a basketball field. Um, there's just there's 0:10:44.920 --> 0:10:46.960 nowhere else that you could create a bubble like this, 0:10:47.040 --> 0:10:51.000 and there's really just not there's not another sport where 0:10:51.040 --> 0:10:54.959 where there's this many fields available. Has the NBA announced 0:10:55.040 --> 0:10:57.520 anything in terms of its plans for the next season, 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.320 if it's going to go the bubble route or any 0:11:00.320 --> 0:11:05.079 other any other logistical plan. They haven't yet. And and 0:11:05.120 --> 0:11:07.360 they haven't even set when the start date for the 0:11:07.400 --> 0:11:10.439 new season will be. It was initially expected like maybe 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:13.880 it would be on Christmas Day, um, and now it's 0:11:14.040 --> 0:11:18.120 looking closer towards January. And a lot of this has 0:11:18.160 --> 0:11:19.680 to do with the fact is, you know, let's be 0:11:19.720 --> 0:11:22.000 serious here, the NBA lost a ton of money because 0:11:22.000 --> 0:11:24.360 of this. I mean, they lost all of the fans 0:11:24.360 --> 0:11:27.280 and attendance. They don't want to do this again. That 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:30.080 this isn't something where this is a proof of concept 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:32.240 and hey, you know, if we have to, we'll go 0:11:32.320 --> 0:11:34.680 back to it. There's a significant amount of money on 0:11:34.720 --> 0:11:37.199 the line here. There was a significant cost of a 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:40.199 hundred and fifty million was was what was reported for this, 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:43.280 and you know, they don't want to play another season 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:46.960 without fans, So the idea of doing a bubble again 0:11:47.000 --> 0:11:50.600 to me just seems like a non starter. So, as 0:11:50.640 --> 0:11:53.599 you both have mentioned, you know, this was a scenario 0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:58.960 that was fairly unique, fairly expensive, and not something that 0:11:59.360 --> 0:12:02.800 maybe a will to be replicated, either in another sport 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:06.400 or in general. But is there anything that we can 0:12:06.440 --> 0:12:09.960 take away from what we've seen in the NBA bubble? 0:12:10.040 --> 0:12:12.920 Is there something that the public can take away from 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.600 how the NBA handled the virus, either when it comes 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:19.720 to testing or the social distancing rules that they were enforcing. 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:24.600 I think to start, it's quite hopeful to have an 0:12:24.600 --> 0:12:27.600 example of where things did go well, because we haven't. 0:12:28.000 --> 0:12:30.280 We haven't had a whole lot of that lately. And 0:12:30.600 --> 0:12:33.400 um I note that the NBA bubble was conducted, you know, 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:36.200 it started in the summer, and it was conducted in Florida, 0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:39.720 So we're talking about it happening also in a state 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:42.640 that at the time was a real you know, becoming 0:12:42.679 --> 0:12:45.520 a real hot spot and so their success, you know, 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:55.240 it really does say something that was Emma Cord and 0:12:55.320 --> 0:12:58.320 Brandon catch coded. And that's it for our show today. 0:12:58.880 --> 0:13:01.160 For coverage of the out from one D and twenty 0:13:01.200 --> 0:13:05.560 bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot com slash Coronavirus 0:13:06.520 --> 0:13:08.680 and if you like the show, please leave us a 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:12.560 review and a ragging on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. It's 0:13:12.559 --> 0:13:15.880 the best way to help more listeners find our global reporting. 0:13:17.040 --> 0:13:21.439 The Prognosis Daily edition is produced by Topha foreheads Jordan Gaspore, 0:13:21.800 --> 0:13:26.360 Magnus and Rickson and me Laura Carlson. Today's main story 0:13:26.679 --> 0:13:30.319 was reported by Emma Court and Brandon Cotch Cooden. Original 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:34.320 music by Leo Sidran. Our editors are Francesca Levi and 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:39.559 Rick Shine. Francesca Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks 0:13:39.600 --> 0:13:40.160 for listening.