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Speaker 1: Mh. This is Masters in Business with very Renaults on

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Speaker 1: Bluebird Radio. This week on the podcast, I get to

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Speaker 1: welcome back the person who was really part of the

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Speaker 1: inspiration for Masters in Business in the first place. Jack

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Speaker 1: Schweger is the author of a new book, unknown Market Wizards,

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Speaker 1: the best Traders You've Never heard of. But this is

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Speaker 1: the fifth or maybe even if I include the little book,

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Speaker 1: the sixth book of market Wizards he's put out. And

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Speaker 1: when I was a young stud on a trading desk

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Speaker 1: back in the eighteen nineties, Um Schweger's book Market Wizards

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Speaker 1: was was one of the first books I picked up

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Speaker 1: uh to learn a little bit about the idea of

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Speaker 1: of markets. And I found the book to be tremendously

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Speaker 1: a formative to me. Not so much because it said

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Speaker 1: by this cell that, but it was very revealing about

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Speaker 1: discipline and risk management and mental models and containing your emotions.

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Speaker 1: And that book really was one of the early books

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Speaker 1: that sent me scampering off to learn more about behavioral

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Speaker 1: economics and and behavioral finance. Not so much because he

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Speaker 1: was channeling Um Traversky and Conoman or Sailor or any

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Speaker 1: of those folks, but it was pretty clear from the

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Speaker 1: successful traders he was interviewing, that consensus was problematic, that

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Speaker 1: examining your motivations was really important, that being aware of

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Speaker 1: of not only your own emotions, but your own biases

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Speaker 1: and some of your own cognitive deficits and blind spots

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Speaker 1: was really really important to individual traders. And you know,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't call Market Wizards uh behavioral finance book, but

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Speaker 1: it certainly touches on so many of the same issues.

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Speaker 1: I find these books to be absolutely fascinating as he's

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Speaker 1: put them out over the years. The first book really

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Speaker 1: was just a pure interview book, and and it's evolved

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Speaker 1: over all these decades. I think the first book was

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Speaker 1: eighty six or eighty nine and the most recent book

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Speaker 1: was twenty. He not only gives you a summation at

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Speaker 1: the end of each chapter, each trading wizard of of

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Speaker 1: their rules and and what guidelines you can pick up

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Speaker 1: from them, but at the end he summarizes it with

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Speaker 1: something like forty six trading rules that you can learn

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Speaker 1: from these people. And really he's made it easier and

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Speaker 1: easier to consume um the information. I know what he's

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Speaker 1: trying to do. He wants to educate people. For me,

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Speaker 1: as a young guy on a trading desk. I found

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Speaker 1: it really helpful to sort of that journey of of

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Speaker 1: learning what I was doing wrong and why in order

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Speaker 1: to get better. Was was really helpful. Um, but I

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Speaker 1: don't think people have the patients for that these days.

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Speaker 1: I found the book to be really intriguing and I

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Speaker 1: think you will also, And if you haven't read the

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Speaker 1: first one, or the second, or third or fourth, but

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Speaker 1: go back and read that first Trading Wizards book. It's

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Speaker 1: really quite astonishing and has held up over time. You

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Speaker 1: could read it today and it looks like it came

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Speaker 1: out last month. So, with no further ado, my conversation

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Speaker 1: with Jack Schweger. This is Masters in Business with very

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Speaker 1: Renaults on Bloomberg Radio. My special guest this week is

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Speaker 1: Jack Schweger. He has written five books on market wizards,

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Speaker 1: and in fact I found his first book, I think

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Speaker 1: it was the Market Wizards Book, to be enormously useful

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Speaker 1: in my first job as a trader on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: He is also the founder of fund Seater, a platform

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Speaker 1: designed two matched undiscovered trading talent with capital worldwide. His

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Speaker 1: most recent book is Unknown Market Wizards, The Best Traders

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Speaker 1: You've Never Heard Of Jack Schweger, Welcome back to Bloomberg. Hey,

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Speaker 1: good to speak with again. Barry, same same, It's it's

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Speaker 1: been too long. Let's let's let's start out talking about

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Speaker 1: your first Market Wizards book, which I've told you before.

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Speaker 1: Not only was it enormously influential to me when I

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Speaker 1: was a trader, but it was part of the motivation

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Speaker 1: for this Masters in Business format of talking to people

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Speaker 1: who have achieved a level of accomplishment and excellence, which

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Speaker 1: leads me just to my first question, what what made

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Speaker 1: you decide to write that first Market Wizard's book. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: so I had the idea actually for several years. At

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Speaker 1: the time, I was a future prorector of the Futures

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Speaker 1: Research Department, which is kind of a full time job

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Speaker 1: on its own. To do a book, you really have

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Speaker 1: to do, like commit tonight's weekends. I had. I had

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Speaker 1: done a a book before, the Complete Count Futures Market,

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Speaker 1: which was like a seven and fifty page home and

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to do that at anything like that again,

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Speaker 1: but I want to. I had this idea that, gee,

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Speaker 1: wouldn't it be fun to go right? And I knew

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Speaker 1: some great traders. I said it wouldn't be fun to

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Speaker 1: just kind of do that as the theme of the book,

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Speaker 1: but it was just amount of time. And then I

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Speaker 1: got invited by to a lunch by some other publisher

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Speaker 1: who wholi the analytical book I wrote. They want to

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Speaker 1: do a bunch of analytical books, and I said, no,

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Speaker 1: no interest, but I've been thinking of this, and they said, okay,

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Speaker 1: why don't you do that? And so that was the catalyst,

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Speaker 1: and I guess I just needed a little bush to

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Speaker 1: get going because I thought it was a good idea.

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Speaker 1: So so this is now over three decades that you've

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Speaker 1: been sitting down with traders talking to them about their process,

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Speaker 1: their methodology, and where they've gone wrong and where they've

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Speaker 1: achieved success. I can't help but notice that the world

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Speaker 1: of the twenties, at least the trading world, is so

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Speaker 1: very different than the trading world of the How does

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Speaker 1: that impact the sort of conversations you have and how

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Speaker 1: does that affect the methodologies of these different types of traders. Yeah, so,

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Speaker 1: you know, that's a good point. You're absolutely right. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's been enormous, you know, really enormous changes, as as

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Speaker 1: you all know, you've been business a while as well.

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Speaker 1: But you know, from the time I did the original

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Speaker 1: Market Wizards book, which was the late eighties, and talking

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Speaker 1: to people at that point about that career is really

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Speaker 1: going back to late sixties, seventies and into the eighties,

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Speaker 1: but to that period of their you know, their their

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Speaker 1: trading history. You know, it's pre pre prepcs, you know. Uh,

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Speaker 1: of course we had in futures and basically dealing with fits,

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Speaker 1: not electronic trading. But the big changes is this computerization element.

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Speaker 1: And uh, we went from a world where where we

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Speaker 1: didn't even have PCs. Too, we're not only everybody has

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Speaker 1: a PC, which is quite a full and in this

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Speaker 1: tremendous amount of data, but you're also dealing now actually

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Speaker 1: for decades where you have firms who have taken quantification

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Speaker 1: to the extreme, might have PhDs and maths and physics

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Speaker 1: and so forth. Uh, you know, trying to work on

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Speaker 1: the markets give from from from that angle. So so

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Speaker 1: that that's been I think that the really big change

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Speaker 1: plus the electronic trading, to switch from from jets to

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Speaker 1: electronic trading. So, um, how does that change you know?

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Speaker 1: Of the enough for since I end up interviewing mostly

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Speaker 1: discretionary traders, we can talk why that's true he has

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Speaker 1: a separate tension if you want, but that tends to

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Speaker 1: be the reality. I mean, there are some systematic but

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Speaker 1: then mostly discretionary. Um. It turns out that for the

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Speaker 1: most part, a lot of approaches really go fall into

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Speaker 1: the same categories, and there's still a place for the

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Speaker 1: individual discretionary later and and I would say, the biggest

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Speaker 1: surprise I had doing this this last book, I know,

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Speaker 1: MARKT Wizards, was I didn't expect to find people of

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Speaker 1: track records like those in the first book, somebody you know,

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Speaker 1: people like the Govenors and the Jones and so forth.

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Speaker 1: And to my amazement, I found people, you know because

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Speaker 1: and I say that because of this great quantification in

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Speaker 1: all this competition, you know that now exists, into my surprise,

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Speaker 1: I found people whose records were every bit as good,

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Speaker 1: if not maybe as good, as any others found. So

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Speaker 1: that was my surprise, and it basically speaks as evidence

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Speaker 1: that somehow, despite these enormous changes, it's still possible for

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Speaker 1: the individual trader too, who has talent and has a

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Speaker 1: specific methodology that really works, to do enormously Well. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about some of the specific traders

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Speaker 1: and some of the eye popping um track records that

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Speaker 1: they have a mass later. But you mentioned Um Jones,

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Speaker 1: Paulled Tutor Jones. Of all the people I recall from

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Speaker 1: the first book or one of the early books, he

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Speaker 1: seems to be the loan standout who continues to be active,

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Speaker 1: who continues to trade and continues to make money. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he was very early to bitcoin, and I believe he's

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Speaker 1: still a holder, you know, twenty percent later. Um. What

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Speaker 1: makes Jones stand out and be so different from his peers,

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Speaker 1: He's he's much more open minded than I don't know,

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Speaker 1: you can you can compare him to Druck a Mill

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Speaker 1: or a Dahlia or he seems to be a thirty

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Speaker 1: something not a sixties something. Well, the thing that that

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Speaker 1: struck me about Jones that was different, I guess is yeah,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't say. I'm about to say less rebroke, but

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Speaker 1: that's not really fair. I mean, I'm sure he's quite so,

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Speaker 1: but he is he was much more um sort of

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Speaker 1: act and and and um, you know, somebody like a

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Speaker 1: like a Drucker Miller. I didn't see him trade. I

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Speaker 1: spent the day with him, but you know, I kind

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Speaker 1: of picture him, you know, more thoughtfully going through and

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Speaker 1: designing on trades and pretty traded. But but you know, Paul,

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Speaker 1: I remember sitting in his office that he you know, screamed,

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Speaker 1: you know, while we're doing the interview, screaming orders less

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Speaker 1: than rightness in the day where they were you know,

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Speaker 1: phones down to the pits and you know, so he's

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Speaker 1: he's he's doing these orders, he's looking at the screens.

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Speaker 1: He's just very almost mannic in the way he trades. So, um,

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Speaker 1: I had that that's almost physical image of you know,

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Speaker 1: trading more so than anybody I guess that I ever interviewed. Uh,

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Speaker 1: that's one difference. And there are certain things I still

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Speaker 1: remember about that interview is it's kind of insistence that

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Speaker 1: you know, every days he started from flying slate, So

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Speaker 1: just because he has a position doesn't mean that that

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Speaker 1: position is still something to be held. So yeah, he

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Speaker 1: talked about wanting to evaluate every position while I have this,

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Speaker 1: would I would I still want to I still wanted today,

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Speaker 1: you know that type of thing. So this this is

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Speaker 1: constant renewing of his analysis and assessment of the market.

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Speaker 1: And I think particularly very much a tune I think

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Speaker 1: to to market action in a very addresceral way. Just

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Speaker 1: those are some of the ways I, at least from

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Speaker 1: my memory of that interview that I that he struck

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Speaker 1: me as being a bit different. So so let's stick

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Speaker 1: with that first book. I mean, the list of people

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Speaker 1: you got to sit down with you for a day

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Speaker 1: is pretty impressive. You mentioned Bruce Governor. We're just talking

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Speaker 1: about Paul Tutor, Jones, Richard Dennis eds Skoida, Marty Schwartz,

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Speaker 1: Tom Baldwin, Michael Steinhardt, um Druct Miller. I mean that's

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Speaker 1: some murderers, row of of fund managers and traders. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it was, And I was lucky to I guess I

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Speaker 1: didn't even realize how lucky it was because just about

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Speaker 1: everybody I as agree. I had some edge there because

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Speaker 1: I knew some traders, uh personally Michael Michael Marcus, who's

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Speaker 1: who's actually a chapter one in that book, is not

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Speaker 1: somebody who would have been known word not for the book,

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Speaker 1: but he he is one of the greats, and uh

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Speaker 1: he you know, so I knew him personally, you know,

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Speaker 1: we were friends. Uh. I actually took his My first

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Speaker 1: job on Wall Street was vacated by Michael. He was

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Speaker 1: cleaning out his desk when I came in my first day.

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Speaker 1: We talked a little bit. He was going, in quotes

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Speaker 1: off to become a trader and uh, you know, leaving

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Speaker 1: his analyst job, and I took his analyst up. But

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Speaker 1: he was in New York for a few years before

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Speaker 1: he went out to Malibu and and you know, and

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Speaker 1: you know I moved from the ly there. But um,

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Speaker 1: while he was in New York, he used to get

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Speaker 1: together from lunch was every couple of weeks, so we

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Speaker 1: had a relationship. Uh so he agreed to do it.

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Speaker 1: We have not easily. He's a very shry guy, so

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Speaker 1: it took a bit of convincing and I had a

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Speaker 1: mutual friend kind of pushed a little bit. But you know,

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Speaker 1: then he felt satisfied with with our interview after I

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Speaker 1: had spent a day too there. That is how that

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Speaker 1: was when that I did Actually when he was out

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Speaker 1: out in California and um, he said, you know you

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Speaker 1: should Rick, and hey, you know, he said you should

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Speaker 1: interview Sakota And I never heard Sakota, but apparently Dakota

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Speaker 1: was his mentor and somebody who he considered the best

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Speaker 1: trader that he knew, and so he set that up

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Speaker 1: and then I flew out into Sakota. Governor. I knew

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Speaker 1: because Michael had a hired covernor and so I met

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Speaker 1: him through Michael, and I had actually worked because of Michael.

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Speaker 1: He hired me to be analysient, you know, remotely why

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Speaker 1: the commodities called making all that money and and so

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Speaker 1: you know, so there were these I had a bit

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Speaker 1: of a jump because I knew some traders and then

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Speaker 1: some of them recommended other traders. You know, interesting, really interesting.

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Speaker 1: So so last question on on the early book. Some

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Speaker 1: of some of these guys have been trading for decades,

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Speaker 1: and the risk that you run into relates to what

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Speaker 1: one of my colleagues described as the paradox of experts.

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Speaker 1: People who are experts have their expertise in the way

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Speaker 1: the world used to be in an earlier version of

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Speaker 1: the world that doesn't exist. When you look around at

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Speaker 1: at these traders who've been at it for a long time,

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Speaker 1: do they have a difficulty and adapting to the new world.

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Speaker 1: I noticed most of the guys you interviewed for the

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Speaker 1: newest book are fairly young. Yeah, um, so well, of course,

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Speaker 1: you know you go back to the original book. Uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, a lot most of them, Yeah, one at

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Speaker 1: least ones I know continued continuing on for decades, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, like the companies and the drug of Millers

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Speaker 1: and so forth, and it you know, did quite well.

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Speaker 1: And John Owens et cetera. Um, in the case of

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Speaker 1: you know, but I can think of it except for

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Speaker 1: somebody like like Richard Dennis, who was who had one

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Speaker 1: of the most incredible stories ever turning literally a sub

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Speaker 1: one dollar steak when he was trading to mid Am

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Speaker 1: ex change these mini contracts and at some point amassing

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Speaker 1: a couple of hundred million dollars that got to be

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Speaker 1: one of the great multiplication deeds of all time. But

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Speaker 1: but in subsequently, uh, the years after our coninued, Uh

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Speaker 1: had I had had some some had problems and and

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Speaker 1: never conte But besides not continuing, I think had that

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Speaker 1: loss is probably so um not everybody you know, none

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Speaker 1: everybody uh necessarily continued forever um. But but I think

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Speaker 1: the majority you know continued to continue to adapt the markets.

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Speaker 1: And and in Dennisis case, I think it may be

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Speaker 1: an issue of of the markets I think did change

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Speaker 1: um trend following back you know in Dennis's hey, they

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Speaker 1: which I would say re late sixties through ladies. Those

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Speaker 1: were kind of glory days for for trend following. You

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Speaker 1: had had a couple of things working together at first,

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Speaker 1: because there was before more technical analysis that came so popular.

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Speaker 1: He was before most of that. Drey was before a

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Speaker 1: lot of the computerization, so people who who were early

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Speaker 1: on on trend following kind of didn't have a lot

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Speaker 1: of competition. And also you had the inflationary seventies and

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Speaker 1: us some giant trends and futures and currencies and so forth.

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Speaker 1: So the times were very good when the times came

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Speaker 1: more difficult, uh Or and many more more people. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's just to turn this amount of trying to increase

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Speaker 1: in a number of people using these those type of approaches,

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Speaker 1: the approach naturally degraded. So I think that was the

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Speaker 1: issue there. And uh and could explain why somebody like

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Speaker 1: Dennis didn't continue the way he did while some of

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Speaker 1: these more discretionary traders like Covenor and Jones did. Uh.

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Speaker 1: My big takeaway from the early Dennis chapter was all

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Speaker 1: about training traders. The way they raised turtles on farms

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Speaker 1: in Singapore. That that concept that hey, you could teach

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Speaker 1: anybody how to trade if they're disciplined and will follow

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Speaker 1: these sets of rules. I was. I was really impressed

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Speaker 1: with that, and that was I don't know, twenty five

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Speaker 1: years ago, do you think someone like a modern version

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Speaker 1: of Richard Dennis could still train traders the way he did.

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Speaker 1: I have some skepticism there, uh, and that's developed over

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Speaker 1: the years. I kind of troubly is you, if you

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Speaker 1: train somebody, the person you're training has to be kind

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Speaker 1: of adaptable and amenable and be a good fit for

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Speaker 1: whatever the methodology you're training. And what my perspective is

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Speaker 1: that to be successful the method you use, if it's

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Speaker 1: not amount of being trained by somebody, you have to

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Speaker 1: it has to be a method that's compatible with who

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Speaker 1: you are and how you're thinking. What's comfortable. So if

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Speaker 1: you're you know, you're somebody who say doesn't feel comfortable

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Speaker 1: delegating decisions to a systematic approach, somebody can teach you

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Speaker 1: a system, but it's gonna be a very difficult feed

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Speaker 1: of follow because you're always gonna want to be second

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Speaker 1: guessing it or jumping a gun or not taking signals.

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Speaker 1: So it has to be compatible with with with what's

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Speaker 1: what works for you. And and I think that's the problem.

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Speaker 1: I don't think you necessarily can train everybody. Now at

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Speaker 1: the time of Dentist, did it? You have turned following

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Speaker 1: being a very effective methodology. So if people follow the rules,

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Speaker 1: they could be successful. But I think that's more the

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Speaker 1: exception than the rule. So you can you certainly can

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Speaker 1: learn from a mentor if the mentor is compatible with

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Speaker 1: with the methodology that fits who you are. Makes a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense, Jack, I was kind of struck by

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Speaker 1: this book, and I'm curious how did you go about it?

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Speaker 1: Was it was it different versus your prior wizard books?

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Speaker 1: Did did your methodology change? Sure? Did you interview process

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Speaker 1: change or was it you know you have a process

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Speaker 1: and you stuck to it. Yeah, No, I've had um

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Speaker 1: I've had the same methodology from the from the first

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Speaker 1: market Wizard's book, so um uh and it works. So

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Speaker 1: there's no if somebody works, you don't know who he's

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Speaker 1: gonna change it. So my process first of all, and

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Speaker 1: the actual as far as the actual uh interviews and

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Speaker 1: turning into a text when I do the interview, and

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Speaker 1: this is kind of important is and I'm sure you

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Speaker 1: could relate to this very well, Barry, Um, I try

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Speaker 1: I do what you do really, which I which I

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Speaker 1: send you do is have a conversation. Uh So I

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Speaker 1: don't go in with a list of questions. And you

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Speaker 1: know I've been interviewed by people and that you can

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Speaker 1: tell they have a list of questions you no matter

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Speaker 1: what your answer put you know, there's no follow through

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Speaker 1: and it goes to the next question right And it

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Speaker 1: sounds very stiff and bored, and it is so. Um

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Speaker 1: what I try to do an these things is really

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Speaker 1: just literally have a conversation. And there are times there

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Speaker 1: have been interviews where I literally could be it could

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Speaker 1: be two hours before I get the first thing that's

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Speaker 1: any value. Now you don't have that luxury that I

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Speaker 1: do because there's a book, not a live interview. Um.

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Speaker 1: But but that's that's so that's very important. And I

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Speaker 1: do have like a list of questions that I know

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Speaker 1: I want to make sure I hit those topics. And

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Speaker 1: after I spend any number of hours which could be

347
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Speaker 1: which could be as little as a few hours and

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Speaker 1: in a short and to the YouTube as much as

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Speaker 1: a day or more. Um, then I'll just check the

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Speaker 1: list and see if I missed anything. But so that's

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Speaker 1: one important thing and the other part of the process

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Speaker 1: that doesn't change is just the way the interviews are

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Speaker 1: transformed into texts. And uh, there you know, obviously I'm

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Speaker 1: doing so much, so many hours. You know, you couldn't

355
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Speaker 1: any a lot of these interviews could be a book

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Speaker 1: along by themselves. But besides that, if I used every thing,

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Speaker 1: it would be deadly boring. So you're really what I'm

358
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Speaker 1: really trying to do is basically extract out everything that

359
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,800
Speaker 1: is one of two things. One it has something meaningful

360
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Speaker 1: to say about trading, or two it's interesting, you know,

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Speaker 1: So it's one of those things. So and that's the

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Speaker 1: material that that forms the chapter. And then the thing

363
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Speaker 1: you do fixing up of you know, people, the way

364
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Speaker 1: people speak doesn't translate well int into written text as

365
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Speaker 1: you as you will know, I'm sure, uh, and you

366
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Speaker 1: may talk about the same topic in eight different places,

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Speaker 1: and that's fine if you're talking, but it's not fine

368
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Speaker 1: if you're reading. So you know, But that's that's the

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Speaker 1: basic process. Uh. The difference in this book though, was

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Speaker 1: the focus, and in prior books, I guess they have

371
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Speaker 1: been more more heavy in well known professional traders, although

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Speaker 1: not necessary all the time, there's always been individual traders

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Speaker 1: as well. And the most recent wizard book before this one,

374
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Speaker 1: back I guess two thousand twelves or so, was Hedge

375
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Speaker 1: Fund Market Wizards, which you can tell by the name

376
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Speaker 1: is you know, obviously not individual traders right there, their

377
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Speaker 1: traders and organizations. So this this one was the exactly

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Speaker 1: tended to be the exact opposite. It was literally to

379
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Speaker 1: try to find those people who were trading in a

380
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Speaker 1: home office doing extraordinarily well, and nobody knows they exist,

381
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Speaker 1: nobody knows who they are, and and so that was

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Speaker 1: a difference in this book. So one of the differences

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Speaker 1: I suspected when I went into reading this book is

384
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Speaker 1: all of the subjects of your prior books, all of

385
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 1: the various traders, you know, you could do a search

386
00:22:42,119 --> 00:22:44,440
Speaker 1: on them. You could you could read about them. There's

387
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Speaker 1: newspaper articles in the days before Google, and certainly since

388
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 1: search engines have been around, you can find a ton

389
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Speaker 1: of stuff on each of the people um that you interview.

390
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Speaker 1: I got the sense from each of the chapters in

391
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Speaker 1: this book that you had a bunch of arrows in

392
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Speaker 1: your quiver, but you didn't know which ones you're gonna use,

393
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:09,520
Speaker 1: because you're kind of going in a little a little

394
00:23:09,880 --> 00:23:13,520
Speaker 1: in the dark. Is that a fair assessment or am I?

395
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:19,480
Speaker 1: Am I projecting too much? You're projecting too much because

396
00:23:20,640 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: especially since I was doing these individual traders and uh,

397
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: you know, it's unlike there's a public fund out there

398
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:31,520
Speaker 1: or something like that. Uh, so I had to really

399
00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:34,399
Speaker 1: really be careful this time about well I always but

400
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,080
Speaker 1: I had to get the track records and um, and

401
00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 1: so I knew, you know, I knew what their track

402
00:23:41,119 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 1: records were before I went in, and uh, you know,

403
00:23:45,720 --> 00:23:48,640
Speaker 1: like I'll give you one example. One of these traders,

404
00:23:48,840 --> 00:23:50,840
Speaker 1: I got an email and this is about a year

405
00:23:50,920 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 1: before I did the book, and you know, saying something

406
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,879
Speaker 1: like you know, hey, I'm you know, my name is

407
00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,800
Speaker 1: you know, and I turned a few thousand dollars ins

408
00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 1: but a million of whatever, you know. So yeah, your

409
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 1: initial reaction would be sure, right, Um, but uh yeah,

410
00:24:07,359 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 1: I'm always I think if people, you know, people may claims,

411
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 1: they know they're gonna have to prove it. So anyway, said, look,

412
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Speaker 1: I'm not planning another book at the time, I wasn't

413
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:17,560
Speaker 1: to playing view this book. And I said, but your

414
00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 1: story sounds very interesting and if you can confirm it,

415
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: you know, um, you know, it would be sounds like

416
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:25,680
Speaker 1: it would be really good fit. And uh, if I

417
00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 1: do another book, I'll get back in touch. Turns out

418
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: that nine months later I do decide to do do

419
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Speaker 1: do another book, and I get back to them, and

420
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,240
Speaker 1: and so you know, I got he started trading back

421
00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,600
Speaker 1: I think around two thousand and six, and literally got

422
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 1: that'd be monthly state from two thousand and six forwards.

423
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Speaker 1: So so I knew while the story sounds unbelievable, I

424
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:52,000
Speaker 1: knew it was real, you know, I you know, actually

425
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 1: they were in this particular case that they were there

426
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Speaker 1: Merritrade accounts, and I have an a Merritrade accounts, even

427
00:24:56,880 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 1: though it would accounting you know, fathoms look like so

428
00:24:59,800 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: the was no there was no surprise there. I kind

429
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 1: of knew what. I knew what his track record was like.

430
00:25:05,320 --> 00:25:08,000
Speaker 1: I didn't know what you'd be like, or what did

431
00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,040
Speaker 1: you have to say or anything like that. That's always

432
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 1: the case. But I knew that the track records reel.

433
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 1: So so let's jump into some of the details of

434
00:25:16,680 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: various traders, starting with the first chapter. And pretty much

435
00:25:21,080 --> 00:25:26,640
Speaker 1: the only um person you interviewed who has a has

436
00:25:26,720 --> 00:25:29,920
Speaker 1: been trading for for decades and that would be someone

437
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:32,640
Speaker 1: I follow on Twitter who I've always been intrigued by

438
00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,240
Speaker 1: named Peter Brant. What what drew you to him as

439
00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:40,440
Speaker 1: a trader and what makes him so unique? Yeah, So,

440
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 1: as you said, Peters is a long career. He actually has.

441
00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:48,280
Speaker 1: His career is broken into two segments. Um he uh,

442
00:25:49,080 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 1: and each one is like, I think it's the exact

443
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 1: number of years, but let's eleven years apart. Yeah, eleven

444
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: years apart. But each one, each of the segments is

445
00:25:57,400 --> 00:26:00,320
Speaker 1: let's say, sixteen seventeen years, so it's got over thirty

446
00:26:00,400 --> 00:26:02,960
Speaker 1: years of the gift trading experience. He went cold. He

447
00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,439
Speaker 1: stopped trading totally for eleven years in between, because at

448
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:08,840
Speaker 1: the end of the first period is fun and going

449
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,920
Speaker 1: out of it, and he just he just decided I

450
00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:13,240
Speaker 1: didn't want to do it anymore, and then out of blue,

451
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: eleven years later, decided to do it and had had

452
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,280
Speaker 1: a second phase graded very well. So so he had

453
00:26:18,359 --> 00:26:22,879
Speaker 1: sover three decades of you know, of experience and so forth. Okay,

454
00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: that's that's that's part. That's that's the beginning the thing

455
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,879
Speaker 1: that Peter and I shouldn't I shouldn't meant I should

456
00:26:28,920 --> 00:26:32,640
Speaker 1: say that Peter actually is a grightened so I knew

457
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,200
Speaker 1: him personally. One thing that I was talking about Peter

458
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:40,760
Speaker 1: was he just had a lot of what I thought

459
00:26:41,520 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 1: valuable things to say about the markets and trading. And

460
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 1: I remember him being on on a on another podcast

461
00:26:49,880 --> 00:26:53,000
Speaker 1: and listening to it, and the questions would be asked

462
00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:56,080
Speaker 1: and I would mentally answer him, and you know, it

463
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:58,920
Speaker 1: was striking how similar his answers were. So it's not

464
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,480
Speaker 1: just that, it's just I just really related to the

465
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: way he he looked at at markets and risk and

466
00:27:07,160 --> 00:27:11,639
Speaker 1: had so many so much good advice and just just

467
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:15,359
Speaker 1: wisdom that that that I felt I wanted to capture

468
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:18,920
Speaker 1: that Peter is uh, you know, it's giving his early seventies,

469
00:27:19,000 --> 00:27:22,360
Speaker 1: and I literally and he was kind of a catalyst

470
00:27:22,440 --> 00:27:24,960
Speaker 1: to do the book. Uh at the time, he was

471
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 1: in Colorado as I am, and I thought, well, I'll

472
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 1: say myself, you know, I knew, I knew if I

473
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:31,920
Speaker 1: didn't know a market. With his book, I wanted that

474
00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 1: Peter in it. He was going he was gonna be moving.

475
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 1: I think, well, I might as well stay my trip

476
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,040
Speaker 1: because I might as well do his chapter. Now, it

477
00:27:39,080 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 1: turns out, by time I got around to doing it.

478
00:27:41,320 --> 00:27:44,560
Speaker 1: He had moved, and uh so I ended up playing out,

479
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:50,120
Speaker 1: you know, to Arizona anyway. But the thing about Peter

480
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,440
Speaker 1: just just to capture I wanted to capture his his

481
00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,920
Speaker 1: market wisdom, posterity. It's probably the most straightforward way I

482
00:27:58,960 --> 00:28:02,240
Speaker 1: can put it. And it's notable that several other wizards

483
00:28:02,359 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 1: in the new book reference Brand's approach to risk management.

484
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 1: For forget stock selection. They are just completely impressed with

485
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: how disciplined he is and how he manages risk. First

486
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 1: and foremost, the stocks, the trades that are working out,

487
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:24,159
Speaker 1: we'll take care of themselves, he says. It's ones that

488
00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: don't work out that that require all your tension. Somebody

489
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:32,080
Speaker 1: else said something that really intrigued me the chapter on

490
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 1: Jason Shapiro, the Contrarian. I love this quote. There aren't

491
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 1: good traders you can make money on by doing what

492
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,719
Speaker 1: they're doing, but there are terrible traders you can make

493
00:28:42,800 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: money on by doing the exact opposite of what they do.

494
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:49,440
Speaker 1: Tell us a little bit about Jason Shapiro. Yeah, so, yeah,

495
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:54,680
Speaker 1: Jason is the contrarian in the book, and that's the

496
00:28:54,800 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 1: nature I mean, he if you beat him, um, he's

497
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: just to be I would think he has to be argumented,

498
00:29:02,920 --> 00:29:04,240
Speaker 1: but he always has to be on the other side.

499
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 1: And he admits really like he he goes to a

500
00:29:07,600 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 1: party and and it's mostly liberals, He'll all give the

501
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,440
Speaker 1: conservative side. It was mostly conservative, He'll all give the

502
00:29:13,480 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 1: liberal side. And he's fine doing that. And as his

503
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 1: premises that there's no absolute black and white, there is

504
00:29:18,960 --> 00:29:22,120
Speaker 1: truth from some truth from both sides, and and people

505
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,320
Speaker 1: who insist everything is, you know, one side or the

506
00:29:24,360 --> 00:29:26,880
Speaker 1: other just wrong the themes always arguing it, but that

507
00:29:27,320 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 1: his nature is always to be arguing and to be

508
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 1: counter so it be natural that he evolves into trading methodology.

509
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:39,680
Speaker 1: That that's that's contrarian and uh, and that's what he

510
00:29:39,800 --> 00:29:43,520
Speaker 1: literally does. He he uses the commitment of traders as

511
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: his primary source of trying to establish market sentiment. But also,

512
00:29:49,360 --> 00:29:53,360
Speaker 1: you know, it's also watch you know, CNBC and shows

513
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: like that, the four contrarian ideas, and in his career

514
00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 1: has come across p well um that are just invariably wrong.

515
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:08,320
Speaker 1: And in fact, he kind of picked the exact bottom

516
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:12,280
Speaker 1: of the you know, the the the pandemic bottom in

517
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:16,480
Speaker 1: March because he was on a sort of this call

518
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 1: between some ex colleagues, and and this one guy who

519
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:23,640
Speaker 1: was always bullish on the market was bearish, and and

520
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:26,480
Speaker 1: he was looking for the bottom anyway, because the sentiment

521
00:30:26,560 --> 00:30:30,479
Speaker 1: that was they were seeing in the uh in the numbers,

522
00:30:30,560 --> 00:30:33,160
Speaker 1: and that was a trigger from the almost drump begun

523
00:30:33,320 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: just the mat just thought the establishing a position. So

524
00:30:37,240 --> 00:30:40,160
Speaker 1: h and he to be fair here, I don't want

525
00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:41,840
Speaker 1: to make it sound like he's just you know, kind

526
00:30:41,840 --> 00:30:45,760
Speaker 1: of you know, ragging on people, he says, basically. And

527
00:30:45,920 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 1: when he first of this part, and we did this

528
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 1: chapter in student on this this chapter was done the

529
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 1: only chapter I remember that I did in pseudonyms at

530
00:30:52,480 --> 00:30:55,239
Speaker 1: his weekend, was at his request. Bit and people who

531
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: read the chapter, it is quite obvious why student hims

532
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: were used, because it's not all very complimentary. So he

533
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 1: but he says, it looks it's it's not that this,

534
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,640
Speaker 1: you know, when I see you know, let's call it

535
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:14,920
Speaker 1: Mr X, I see myself, you know, for those years

536
00:31:14,920 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 1: while I was losing, I see him making all the

537
00:31:17,800 --> 00:31:22,720
Speaker 1: same mistakes. And so it's because he recognizes something that

538
00:31:22,840 --> 00:31:25,960
Speaker 1: he himself had done. He recognizes the mistakes that he

539
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:28,880
Speaker 1: had done, that these people are falling prey to which

540
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,680
Speaker 1: are which are emotional and and and not having the

541
00:31:32,800 --> 00:31:36,400
Speaker 1: risk management and so forth. Um, he can see himself

542
00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 1: and he knows that that turned out, and he knows

543
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 1: therefore that the opposite side is the way you should

544
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 1: be right. That that's a very fair way to describe it.

545
00:31:44,720 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 1: When when he is ragging on financial television or market consensus,

546
00:31:49,880 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 1: he very specifically said, I see the errors I made

547
00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: early in my career. I recognize that consensus. And and

548
00:31:57,520 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 1: for people who are not familiar with a Commitment of

549
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 1: Traders report, it shows the commercial hedgers positions relative to

550
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 1: the speculators. And historically, the commercial hedgers have a whole

551
00:32:10,880 --> 00:32:14,880
Speaker 1: lot more insight than than the jobbers and the and

552
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: the speculators who are just taking a flyer. Um. And

553
00:32:18,880 --> 00:32:21,680
Speaker 1: that's why he likes the Commitment of Traders report. Is

554
00:32:21,720 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 1: that a fair way to assist that? Yeah, that that's

555
00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 1: that's a good way to summarize. Let's talk a little

556
00:32:27,520 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 1: bit about mindset. I was impressed with the discussion with

557
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:37,800
Speaker 1: Richard Bark talking about things that most people don't think

558
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:43,200
Speaker 1: have anything to do with trading, state of flow, optimism, confidence,

559
00:32:43,720 --> 00:32:46,880
Speaker 1: managing your emotions. Tell us a little bit about Bart yeah,

560
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:51,440
Speaker 1: Barnes is a quite interesting fellow. So actually, uh grew

561
00:32:51,560 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 1: up in a farm in England. Um, sort of got

562
00:32:56,320 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 1: his trading job as his first job. And he's I

563
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:04,920
Speaker 1: guess his approach. The thing that struck me about Barge

564
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:10,080
Speaker 1: was how how much he weighed psychology and the whole

565
00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 1: into all of trading and everything he did. And he

566
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: was very meticulous. So for exactly he like would bring

567
00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:20,360
Speaker 1: out a binder you'd have like litterally thousands of pages

568
00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: of just keeping kept keeping notes on everything, not just

569
00:33:24,440 --> 00:33:26,719
Speaker 1: the trazy that why did him? And now he did him?

570
00:33:26,760 --> 00:33:30,080
Speaker 1: But what does emotions were? And you know, and even

571
00:33:30,120 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 1: as he even showed me a spreadsheet like I don't

572
00:33:32,400 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: know what you give become spreadsheet? We has all these

573
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,760
Speaker 1: different types of emotions and every day he will check

574
00:33:38,800 --> 00:33:41,280
Speaker 1: if he was subject to any of those. At the

575
00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 1: end of the week we review it, and if there's

576
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 1: too many checks in a certain column, he knows that

577
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:49,440
Speaker 1: something he has to work on. So he's he's alway,

578
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:53,880
Speaker 1: he's kind of combined an analysis of his own psychology

579
00:33:54,440 --> 00:33:59,360
Speaker 1: as an integral part of of trading. And um, yeah,

580
00:33:59,440 --> 00:34:02,760
Speaker 1: so and and this this whole psychology thing, not only

581
00:34:02,840 --> 00:34:05,320
Speaker 1: comes up with Barge, but it comes up with a

582
00:34:05,400 --> 00:34:07,880
Speaker 1: number of the other traders as well as being sort

583
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:12,320
Speaker 1: of highly critical to their approach, someone like Sal talking

584
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,600
Speaker 1: about how you know, it affairs for a trade mentally

585
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,680
Speaker 1: and getting in, you know, getting himself calm and and

586
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 1: getting totally focused, and um, is that the former marine

587
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: you're referring to? No, it's no, Sal wasn't the marine

588
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: that that? The marine is John nettoon, Yes, I was

589
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:34,719
Speaker 1: one of the other UK traders. Actually he was the

590
00:34:35,200 --> 00:34:39,520
Speaker 1: gooko who actually was partially a mentor to the Barge

591
00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,799
Speaker 1: because it turned out that three of the traders at

592
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:45,840
Speaker 1: one time worked at the same prop trading firms and

593
00:34:46,360 --> 00:34:49,880
Speaker 1: they knew each other, you know, so so Salin Netto

594
00:34:50,280 --> 00:34:53,640
Speaker 1: both discussed doing something that I was kind of intrigued

595
00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:57,719
Speaker 1: with and reminded me of some former traders I worked

596
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:02,240
Speaker 1: with who were in the military, which was envisioning the trade,

597
00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:05,759
Speaker 1: envisioning what could go right, what could go wrong. Not

598
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:08,440
Speaker 1: just working out a plan, being the plan see and

599
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 1: all the contingencies, but imagining what your emotional state would

600
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:17,440
Speaker 1: be if something is going good or going bad, and

601
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 1: prepping yourself so that when those emotions bubble up. You

602
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,239
Speaker 1: can sort of shove him off to the side and

603
00:35:24,400 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: remain objective and focused on the task at hand. It's

604
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 1: a very military trained methodology. Yeah, well, that of course

605
00:35:33,800 --> 00:35:37,160
Speaker 1: is the Marine. But the one who probably most epitomize

606
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 1: which you're describing, is Salum because he would literally for

607
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 1: and I think we should explain his background that his

608
00:35:45,280 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: primary trading methodology is to look for special situations like

609
00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:53,000
Speaker 1: a Central Bank announcement or something some event and do

610
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 1: enormous preparations for that and think of every contingency and no,

611
00:35:57,600 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 1: so he would literally plan out what do we do

612
00:36:00,360 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: under no matter what was that, how it was that,

613
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: and just just would have in his mind every possible

614
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: fork in the road on that trade and be totally prepared.

615
00:36:10,920 --> 00:36:16,080
Speaker 1: So that was that. That is actually essential part of

616
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:20,320
Speaker 1: the way he approach approaches market um and really interesting

617
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: when when I was a new beyond a desk, I

618
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,480
Speaker 1: sat between these two monsters. One guy was a former

619
00:36:26,600 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: Marine jungle combat instructor, the other guy was a former ranger,

620
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:35,040
Speaker 1: and after work we would have these conversations about what

621
00:36:35,200 --> 00:36:37,960
Speaker 1: it was like. Ps. You go to bar with these

622
00:36:38,040 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 1: guys and I could be the biggest wisest I wanted

623
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:43,239
Speaker 1: nobody was. People would look at me and then they

624
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 1: look at these two monsters with me, and I would

625
00:36:45,160 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 1: be like, yeah, we're not going to get involved in that.

626
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 1: But what I was these guys weren't just big and fit.

627
00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:54,720
Speaker 1: They were really savvy and smart. And I recall hearing

628
00:36:54,920 --> 00:36:59,239
Speaker 1: some of the Army Ranger prep discussions where you map

629
00:36:59,360 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 1: out literally every step along the way. Here's where the

630
00:37:03,000 --> 00:37:05,600
Speaker 1: helicopter is gonna pick us up. Here's what happens if

631
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:08,040
Speaker 1: the chopper is laid, if it doesn't ride, if this happens.

632
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 1: Here's what happens when we're flying to the target. Here's

633
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 1: what happens if we have to make an unscheduled landing.

634
00:37:12,840 --> 00:37:16,399
Speaker 1: And they literally sort of I guess the right word

635
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: is war game, all the various scenarios that could happen

636
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,880
Speaker 1: that might go wrong. That what what your plan B,

637
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,680
Speaker 1: C D E. Is. But what I was so taken by,

638
00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 1: and I sort of reminisced of it going through the book,

639
00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 1: is how they think about what is your emotional reaction

640
00:37:33,960 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 1: going to be if you show up here and your

641
00:37:37,320 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: gun uh is jammed and it doesn't work, or if

642
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,239
Speaker 1: whatever the task at hand, we're missing a piece. How

643
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:47,520
Speaker 1: do we improvise like the preparation for a mission and

644
00:37:47,680 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 1: the prep of some of the traders in anticipation of

645
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:56,160
Speaker 1: a giant trade, very very parallel. Yeah, and actually you

646
00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: mentioned read in the book NATO here's approach. Me I

647
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 1: should end up spending years systematizing you computerizing it. But

648
00:38:04,120 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: but his approach is exactly that sort as the reports

649
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:09,759
Speaker 1: could could be coming out, kind of figuring where the

650
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 1: probabilities are, where it might happen. You know, what if

651
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 1: its falls and this range warderfals and this range worderfals

652
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:19,600
Speaker 1: in this range and every contingency have having that you

653
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 1: know that like a systematize, so computer will will know

654
00:38:22,840 --> 00:38:25,440
Speaker 1: what to do no matter what which which of those

655
00:38:25,520 --> 00:38:28,960
Speaker 1: things happen. And it isn't that anticipating all different types

656
00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:32,800
Speaker 1: of scenarios as part of the trading plan. And and

657
00:38:32,920 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: it does sound very much like what you're describing your

658
00:38:35,920 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: personal experience with these army ranges of marines. And there's

659
00:38:39,440 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 1: one other element of it, uh, I should say Netta

660
00:38:43,760 --> 00:38:46,080
Speaker 1: wasn't the first marine. I think in the course of

661
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,640
Speaker 1: the market Wizards books has probably been thinking about form

662
00:38:48,680 --> 00:38:52,000
Speaker 1: marines that I interviewed and and X Marines. Uh, and

663
00:38:52,239 --> 00:38:54,440
Speaker 1: if it's not an accident, and I think it's not

664
00:38:54,560 --> 00:38:59,360
Speaker 1: just planning, but I think it's a discipline. And you know,

665
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:04,440
Speaker 1: because because to be successful you really need rigorous discipline. Uh.

666
00:39:04,960 --> 00:39:09,480
Speaker 1: That's something that's inbred innate in X Marines generally. So

667
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: can I tell you right now that that there would

668
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,640
Speaker 1: all tell you the same thing. There's no such thing

669
00:39:15,719 --> 00:39:19,279
Speaker 1: as an ex marine once a marine. Well that's true too,

670
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:24,239
Speaker 1: and that yeah, I wouldn't surprise me if they said

671
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: the same thing. And it really shows up in the description.

672
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: I was flashing back to my days on the desk

673
00:39:31,000 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 1: because that's the exact description. So let me ask you

674
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 1: these three concepts that I really struck me from the book.

675
00:39:37,760 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 1: The first was know your edge. Tell us a little

676
00:39:40,800 --> 00:39:44,200
Speaker 1: bit about why you have to know what your edge is? Yeah,

677
00:39:44,239 --> 00:39:48,279
Speaker 1: because there's two things you need, maybe over simple mind

678
00:39:48,320 --> 00:39:50,400
Speaker 1: and not really, there's really two things you need to

679
00:39:50,440 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 1: be successful in training. One you need a methodology of

680
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,279
Speaker 1: an edge, and two you need risk management. So how

681
00:39:56,760 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 1: people sometimes go too far by saying, well, Chris, management

682
00:39:59,760 --> 00:40:03,680
Speaker 1: is is absolutely critical and mandously important. But bottom line,

683
00:40:04,160 --> 00:40:08,839
Speaker 1: if you don't have a methodology that has some edge. Uh,

684
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,000
Speaker 1: there's no reason why you should you should win. You know,

685
00:40:11,160 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: it's just simple probability. So you do need some edge,

686
00:40:15,120 --> 00:40:18,400
Speaker 1: and you need to obviously know what it is meaning Uh,

687
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 1: you know, you're not truly from the hip. You've got

688
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 1: an approach and and you've got to follow that approach

689
00:40:24,280 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 1: and and then presumably that approach has some edge and

690
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:31,320
Speaker 1: I and you have to obviously know what it is.

691
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,239
Speaker 1: You can't you can't just sit at the front of

692
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 1: your screen and say, oh, I think this is going up,

693
00:40:36,120 --> 00:40:40,720
Speaker 1: I'll buy it. That's that's not a methodology. So essentially

694
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 1: that's the simplest that But it's not knowing where your

695
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 1: edge is. And it could be it could be it

696
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:49,200
Speaker 1: could be anything. It could be, you know, in any realm.

697
00:40:49,680 --> 00:40:51,920
Speaker 1: But it has to be something specific to your approach.

698
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:54,800
Speaker 1: And let's stay with the idea of the methodology. You

699
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:56,680
Speaker 1: have to number two, you have to make sure your

700
00:40:56,760 --> 00:41:01,160
Speaker 1: trading style and methodology fits your sonality. Let's let's talk

701
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: about that for a moment. Yeah, so that's that's one

702
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 1: of the things I kind of leaded to earlier. It's

703
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 1: really everybody I think has uh, you know, a natural

704
00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:16,239
Speaker 1: affinity for certain types of ways of doing things, or

705
00:41:16,360 --> 00:41:19,200
Speaker 1: when it comes to trading, for certain types of trading

706
00:41:19,800 --> 00:41:22,640
Speaker 1: and and whatever you do, it has to be compatible.

707
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,840
Speaker 1: If you're if you're impatient, it's not gonna work. That

708
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 1: has to do a long term trading approach. If you're

709
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:34,759
Speaker 1: oriented to wanting to you believe everything has to have

710
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:39,680
Speaker 1: economic reasons. Uh, and you're disdainful of things like charts,

711
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: you know, trying to do charts. It is not going

712
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 1: to necessarily be compatible. It doesn't mean those approaches don't work.

713
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:49,880
Speaker 1: It just means they won't work for you. So this

714
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:53,400
Speaker 1: is it's a discovery process. You have to find. You

715
00:41:53,480 --> 00:41:56,760
Speaker 1: have to find what fits, what fits your for yourself.

716
00:41:56,920 --> 00:42:00,160
Speaker 1: For example, I started out trading based on fundamental us

717
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,600
Speaker 1: why because I had an economics degree, you know, and

718
00:42:03,680 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 1: I and it uses natural to think in those terms.

719
00:42:07,600 --> 00:42:10,560
Speaker 1: But I discovered that, hey, you know, but the mentals

720
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:13,480
Speaker 1: didn't work for me, and I have problems, you know,

721
00:42:14,160 --> 00:42:18,040
Speaker 1: doing the fundamental approach and combining with proper risk management,

722
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 1: which is a separate tangent, but to me, the two

723
00:42:21,800 --> 00:42:24,720
Speaker 1: were almost in confidence sometimes. But I found that technical

724
00:42:24,719 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 1: analysis worked much more naturally resource management. So I ended

725
00:42:28,000 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 1: up evolving from somebody who thought it was purely fundamentals

726
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 1: for trading and then end up being somebody who and

727
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 1: he just uses technicals for trading. So you have to

728
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 1: find what's compatible with your philosophy, what feels right, what

729
00:42:44,080 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 1: you're comfortable. This is important. You have to use an

730
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 1: approach that's comfortable for you to trade. So, for example,

731
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:55,360
Speaker 1: at one point my back the number decay. Once I,

732
00:42:55,680 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 1: you know, gone to techno analysis, I thought, gee, you know,

733
00:42:58,480 --> 00:43:00,600
Speaker 1: I don't think it liked the emotion to any e'll

734
00:43:00,640 --> 00:43:04,480
Speaker 1: goo systematic, And for a while I traded systematically, but

735
00:43:04,600 --> 00:43:08,000
Speaker 1: I discovered that I just actually that was more that

736
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,600
Speaker 1: was more uncomfortable. I didn't have to make decisions, but

737
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,760
Speaker 1: I had to wait for the dance system to change signals,

738
00:43:13,800 --> 00:43:17,879
Speaker 1: which I just didn't like. So I felt uncomfortable relegating

739
00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,200
Speaker 1: the ability to act in the cut losses to assist them.

740
00:43:21,400 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 1: So I eventually just went back to the discreptions trading.

741
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:26,920
Speaker 1: And it has to be something that you're comfortable with

742
00:43:27,560 --> 00:43:31,160
Speaker 1: makes sense. And then the third one um that I

743
00:43:31,239 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 1: thought was kind of interesting is understanding the market narrative

744
00:43:35,600 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: and recognizing the consensus tell us a little bit about that.

745
00:43:39,160 --> 00:43:41,840
Speaker 1: Well that that comes you know that that applies to

746
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:48,719
Speaker 1: certain traders, not everybody necessarily, but for somebody like we

747
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:52,480
Speaker 1: talked about as somebody like a Shapiro, you know, understanding why,

748
00:43:52,600 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 1: you know, you know, how the market is thinking why

749
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,719
Speaker 1: in this case eventually going against it is integral to

750
00:43:59,840 --> 00:44:03,200
Speaker 1: the approach. But so it really depends on the trader.

751
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:08,240
Speaker 1: But for some traders that is how they look at markets,

752
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,240
Speaker 1: and they need to they need to know what story.

753
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,360
Speaker 1: Netto is another one where that comes in. You go,

754
00:44:14,800 --> 00:44:18,040
Speaker 1: he wants to understand. That's part of his approach. He

755
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:21,840
Speaker 1: wants to understand what what is a story that's driving

756
00:44:21,920 --> 00:44:26,840
Speaker 1: the market, and uh that understanding that is critical to

757
00:44:27,040 --> 00:44:31,080
Speaker 1: being able to trade the markets. Quite quite interesting. Let's

758
00:44:31,160 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 1: talk about some of the people you interviewed in this book.

759
00:44:36,160 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 1: I like the guy whose name is the Unicorn Sniper.

760
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 1: His track record you alluded to earlier up three hundred

761
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 1: and thirty seven for thirteen years, and I want to

762
00:44:47,520 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 1: clarify that that's not a cumulative return. That was his

763
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:57,480
Speaker 1: annual return over thirteen years. Before we get into what

764
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: he does, you have to explain how you're verifying that

765
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:05,880
Speaker 1: those are real numbers because those are just you know,

766
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:10,000
Speaker 1: he's saying, you're saying sorts of returns. You started out

767
00:45:10,080 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 1: with a few thousand and turned it into fifty million.

768
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:17,320
Speaker 1: Oh no, that's Jeff Newman. Oh really yeah, yeah, so

769
00:45:17,440 --> 00:45:21,080
Speaker 1: this is somebody else, the Unicorn sniper. Unicorn snipers actually

770
00:45:21,120 --> 00:45:25,359
Speaker 1: sell Okay, gotcha? What was So let's talk a little

771
00:45:25,400 --> 00:45:27,560
Speaker 1: bit about his track record. What did he start with?

772
00:45:27,760 --> 00:45:30,440
Speaker 1: And what did three d and thirty seven percent a

773
00:45:30,560 --> 00:45:34,400
Speaker 1: year for thirteen years compounding two? Oh? So the thing

774
00:45:34,680 --> 00:45:37,400
Speaker 1: about these percent returns is you have to keep in

775
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:42,959
Speaker 1: mind that they're not they're not letting. He's not keeping

776
00:45:43,000 --> 00:45:47,640
Speaker 1: the money in and compounding out. Yeah, he's pulling it out.

777
00:45:48,200 --> 00:45:51,000
Speaker 1: So he's he's always treating a few million dollars or

778
00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 1: whatever it is, and he keeps them pulling it out,

779
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:56,479
Speaker 1: you know, best thing or whatever uh in other things.

780
00:45:56,960 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 1: So you I think he couldn't do He couldn't get

781
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:05,239
Speaker 1: those type of returns if he were trying to, you know,

782
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,920
Speaker 1: if it was compounding. The money just doesn't scale up

783
00:46:08,000 --> 00:46:11,320
Speaker 1: to bill You couldn't trade hundreds of millions forget billions.

784
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:18,800
Speaker 1: And his approach essentially is is UH is highly selective.

785
00:46:18,800 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 1: As picking certain events very tremendously, uh, just being super

786
00:46:24,040 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: expert on on that on those situations, and that's why

787
00:46:29,120 --> 00:46:32,279
Speaker 1: it calls he's been he said, people have described them

788
00:46:32,320 --> 00:46:37,319
Speaker 1: as as unicorn sniper. The point being that it looks

789
00:46:37,360 --> 00:46:42,399
Speaker 1: for the rarer event that provides tremendous opportunity with much

790
00:46:42,480 --> 00:46:46,320
Speaker 1: less highly asymmetric, big, very big opportunity that can be

791
00:46:47,360 --> 00:46:51,080
Speaker 1: realized without taking commender at rescue, thank you, by smaller risk.

792
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:56,000
Speaker 1: Go ahead, I'm sorry, Yeah, that's okay. So, so while

793
00:46:56,239 --> 00:47:00,120
Speaker 1: while he may have these really high returns but are

794
00:47:00,120 --> 00:47:03,080
Speaker 1: in very high, very individual trades to make a lot

795
00:47:03,160 --> 00:47:06,360
Speaker 1: of money, he cuts his losses very quickly, so he

796
00:47:06,440 --> 00:47:09,840
Speaker 1: doesn't have really large losses. You can go through his record,

797
00:47:10,239 --> 00:47:13,920
Speaker 1: you can probably find thirty days where he's made you more.

798
00:47:14,040 --> 00:47:16,279
Speaker 1: I mean like a lot of days he's made like

799
00:47:16,400 --> 00:47:19,399
Speaker 1: these very large returns, but you won't find any days

800
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:23,920
Speaker 1: where he's had the reverse um And the line that

801
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:27,640
Speaker 1: really stuffed stuck out from amrit cell. Right, if if

802
00:47:27,640 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 1: I'm getting his name is of the time the market

803
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:36,080
Speaker 1: is not providing any opportunities I make of my money

804
00:47:36,400 --> 00:47:39,720
Speaker 1: the other ten percent of the time that that's pretty

805
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 1: astonishing talk about waiting for your pitch. Yeah, so that's

806
00:47:43,560 --> 00:47:47,280
Speaker 1: that's it. That's critical critical um and a lot of people,

807
00:47:47,719 --> 00:47:50,720
Speaker 1: a lot of people make that mistake and it relates

808
00:47:50,760 --> 00:47:55,880
Speaker 1: to human nature. Is we're just not patient, right, so, uh,

809
00:47:56,080 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: people want to people can't can't stand around, you know,

810
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 1: a few not do hally anything and then wait for

811
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,680
Speaker 1: that month. But but that's what stal does it even

812
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:08,080
Speaker 1: there's no opportunity. I mean, he may trade a little bit,

813
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:10,319
Speaker 1: but the with the trades where he takes these big

814
00:48:10,360 --> 00:48:13,520
Speaker 1: positions on they're isolated and they're not that many, and

815
00:48:13,600 --> 00:48:16,440
Speaker 1: he makes most of his money, you know, probably less

816
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 1: than a half a dozen trades a year. But he

817
00:48:18,520 --> 00:48:21,520
Speaker 1: has the patience to wait for That's that. That's kind

818
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,000
Speaker 1: of the sniper thing, you know, just you're waiting for

819
00:48:24,080 --> 00:48:27,040
Speaker 1: the shop and the unicorn is it's not that, it's

820
00:48:27,120 --> 00:48:30,799
Speaker 1: it's it's it's rare. So that those two words really

821
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:35,480
Speaker 1: describe him extremely well. And h it's difficult to do.

822
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:39,080
Speaker 1: People don't have the patients. And one of the points

823
00:48:39,120 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 1: that I made, and I get it was Stala one

824
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,880
Speaker 1: of the other traders, but he makes the point that

825
00:48:45,080 --> 00:48:49,200
Speaker 1: trying to be consistent and this is again very counterintuitive.

826
00:48:49,480 --> 00:48:52,719
Speaker 1: But the point makes is that people who try to

827
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:55,640
Speaker 1: make try to make money every month for saying, you know,

828
00:48:55,680 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 1: a certain amount of money every month the same way

829
00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 1: he is a he says, in this experience, those traders

830
00:49:01,880 --> 00:49:07,640
Speaker 1: will fail because they're the markets will not provide opportunities

831
00:49:07,760 --> 00:49:11,239
Speaker 1: every month, and if you're trying to if you're trying

832
00:49:11,320 --> 00:49:14,960
Speaker 1: to make the same target every months, when the opportunities

833
00:49:14,960 --> 00:49:17,840
Speaker 1: aren't there, you're actually gonna end up losing money, not

834
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 1: making money. So that's actually a negative, a negative trade,

835
00:49:21,800 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 1: not a positive thing. M really quite quite interesting. Um.

836
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,400
Speaker 1: Somebody who had a very different approach than a lot

837
00:49:30,440 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 1: of other people was Chris Camillo Um who who specifically

838
00:49:35,360 --> 00:49:38,400
Speaker 1: I love this quote. My trading is depending on my

839
00:49:38,480 --> 00:49:44,960
Speaker 1: ability to identify meaningful off radar information, early information that's

840
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:49,759
Speaker 1: either not recognized or underappreciated by the investing public. Very

841
00:49:49,920 --> 00:49:53,319
Speaker 1: reminiscent of the Peter Lynch methodology, as you point out

842
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:56,919
Speaker 1: in the book. Tell us a little bit about Chris. Yeah, so, Chris,

843
00:49:57,120 --> 00:50:01,120
Speaker 1: I mean, this is a truly kind of almost remarkable.

844
00:50:01,719 --> 00:50:04,400
Speaker 1: I won't go in through your career expanse from the

845
00:50:04,480 --> 00:50:08,320
Speaker 1: early seventies in the markets and through all those years,

846
00:50:08,520 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 1: with those decades, I just naturally resumed there. You've got

847
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:15,600
Speaker 1: two general approaches. You're either will be you know, using

848
00:50:15,680 --> 00:50:18,000
Speaker 1: some sort of fundamental analysis or using some sort of

849
00:50:18,360 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 1: technical analysis, or you might be combining the two, like

850
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 1: somebody who like a Covenant does. But what else is there? Right?

851
00:50:25,440 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 1: And the amazing thing about Camillo was turns out here's

852
00:50:30,440 --> 00:50:33,560
Speaker 1: a guy who's done phenomenal. I mean, he turned eighty

853
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:37,320
Speaker 1: thousand to twenty million plus and he did that, and

854
00:50:37,400 --> 00:50:40,600
Speaker 1: he doesn't use fundamentals and he doesn't use technical and

855
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:44,360
Speaker 1: people listening to this probably scratching a head whole what

856
00:50:44,440 --> 00:50:46,520
Speaker 1: do you mean? What else? What do is to do? Well?

857
00:50:46,600 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 1: He uses social media and he actually started out just

858
00:50:50,360 --> 00:50:55,160
Speaker 1: by observing, as you say, Uh, Peter interes the perfect example.

859
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:59,920
Speaker 1: He talks about as a kid that I think was

860
00:51:00,080 --> 00:51:03,400
Speaker 1: with the Arizona Stougher or whatever it was. But he

861
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:06,120
Speaker 1: had a distoted that he that he liked, and uh,

862
00:51:06,640 --> 00:51:12,040
Speaker 1: he would go to Snap and they coolidated it and

863
00:51:12,120 --> 00:51:15,919
Speaker 1: here's this new company, Arizona. I stay, yeah, so yeah,

864
00:51:16,040 --> 00:51:18,320
Speaker 1: so he goes one day may mean they he on

865
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:20,440
Speaker 1: the weekends he would go to auctions try to buy

866
00:51:20,480 --> 00:51:23,040
Speaker 1: stuff that he could resell. And he was very like

867
00:51:23,400 --> 00:51:26,719
Speaker 1: as a teenager was at the topic and he would

868
00:51:26,719 --> 00:51:29,080
Speaker 1: get he would get us. He would go to get

869
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,239
Speaker 1: a Snapple and me that was a street. And one

870
00:51:31,320 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 1: day he goes and there's no h you know, the

871
00:51:34,320 --> 00:51:36,920
Speaker 1: the Snapple columns were replaced by all. The don was

872
00:51:37,000 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 1: very know that and he asked to be the big

873
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 1: proprietor and he says, well, you know that's this is

874
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 1: a new but it's a new brand of adding more this.

875
00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:46,320
Speaker 1: And then he asked his brother, hey, is there anyway

876
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:48,759
Speaker 1: his brother was a talckbroker. Is when I could take

877
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,640
Speaker 1: advantage to this? You know? His brother explained options then

878
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:55,480
Speaker 1: and that was his first train. So he was he was,

879
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: you know, he was that he because of naturally went

880
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:02,040
Speaker 1: to the Peter Lynch approach. And there's interesting example he

881
00:52:02,080 --> 00:52:07,120
Speaker 1: talks about sort of um, the Wendy's pretzel bacon cheeseburger.

882
00:52:07,200 --> 00:52:09,440
Speaker 1: I never heard of this. That just cracked me up.

883
00:52:10,120 --> 00:52:12,480
Speaker 1: Yeah I didn't, Eve I don't either, But does this

884
00:52:12,640 --> 00:52:15,799
Speaker 1: type of stuff he did. He does. Eventually he ended

885
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:19,320
Speaker 1: up building a company computerized us all approach. But so

886
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,279
Speaker 1: he would go to one of these seasonal specials that

887
00:52:22,480 --> 00:52:24,839
Speaker 1: the one you just mentioned, and he went he would

888
00:52:24,880 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 1: go to the managers at these doors and how are

889
00:52:28,239 --> 00:52:30,759
Speaker 1: they selling it? Talk to customers, and he found this

890
00:52:30,880 --> 00:52:32,880
Speaker 1: was and they were telling him that this has been

891
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:36,040
Speaker 1: the most popular sandwich we ever had. We've never seen

892
00:52:36,080 --> 00:52:39,960
Speaker 1: anything like this before. It's just even though everybody else

893
00:52:40,040 --> 00:52:43,320
Speaker 1: does this seasonal thing, this one really had tracked. It

894
00:52:43,440 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 1: was that it was Wendy's, it was under Armours, New

895
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:53,759
Speaker 1: Cold Gear, Netflix, Stranger Things, National beverage about some of those, Yes,

896
00:52:53,840 --> 00:52:56,840
Speaker 1: the Stranger Things is a good example. So, yeah, everybody

897
00:52:57,080 --> 00:52:59,480
Speaker 1: was a popular show. But by that point he had

898
00:52:59,600 --> 00:53:02,880
Speaker 1: kind of he was using a primarily Twitter but as

899
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:05,480
Speaker 1: a social media but and he had also, like you know,

900
00:53:05,880 --> 00:53:08,560
Speaker 1: he built a company to do all these tags and

901
00:53:08,719 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 1: stuff like that word tax, combination phrases to search for

902
00:53:12,880 --> 00:53:14,440
Speaker 1: things that were coming up a lot. But in this

903
00:53:14,560 --> 00:53:17,960
Speaker 1: particular show, what he noticed was not just that it

904
00:53:18,080 --> 00:53:21,279
Speaker 1: was popular, but he had the data so he would

905
00:53:21,280 --> 00:53:24,640
Speaker 1: see that it's stayed popular for a very very long time.

906
00:53:24,719 --> 00:53:27,880
Speaker 1: And other big hits on Netflix, yeah, they were popular

907
00:53:27,920 --> 00:53:29,759
Speaker 1: for a few weeks and then and sort of died down.

908
00:53:30,200 --> 00:53:33,279
Speaker 1: But he could see that this chatter was like that

909
00:53:33,760 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 1: he had this data on his Twitter chatter was staying

910
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:40,360
Speaker 1: at a super high level for a long time, and

911
00:53:40,440 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 1: I told him this was different, and so he anticipated

912
00:53:44,000 --> 00:53:46,200
Speaker 1: the earnings were being to be, you know, much better,

913
00:53:46,640 --> 00:53:48,560
Speaker 1: and he was sort of you know, he dissipated this

914
00:53:48,640 --> 00:53:52,759
Speaker 1: before anything showed up, very early on. It was basically

915
00:53:52,920 --> 00:53:57,080
Speaker 1: just a matter of this social media analysis. So so

916
00:53:57,400 --> 00:54:03,000
Speaker 1: this raises some really interesting question because, uh, Camillio learned

917
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 1: from his Snapple put purchase and that was a winning trade.

918
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 1: But but when you read through the chapters, it really

919
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:15,879
Speaker 1: seems that losing trades are far more instructive than than

920
00:54:15,960 --> 00:54:21,839
Speaker 1: winning trades. How how important is failure as a feedback mechanism? Uh,

921
00:54:22,560 --> 00:54:25,520
Speaker 1: extremely important. And that that's a theme that comes up,

922
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:30,720
Speaker 1: that comes up repeatedly in you know and every Market

923
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:35,239
Speaker 1: wizard book. And I think that the one I would

924
00:54:35,320 --> 00:54:38,680
Speaker 1: highlight the most because I think it's so core to

925
00:54:38,840 --> 00:54:42,960
Speaker 1: his philosophy in the Firmly Built would be Ray Dalio Um.

926
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:48,880
Speaker 1: And Dalio's whole philosophy is is to learn from mistakes.

927
00:54:49,200 --> 00:54:53,200
Speaker 1: And that's and and and his whole you know, bridge

928
00:54:53,320 --> 00:54:57,560
Speaker 1: imbued in Bridgewater with that philosophy, and and I think

929
00:54:57,680 --> 00:55:01,839
Speaker 1: Dalue would himself say that his successfu he would lie

930
00:55:02,080 --> 00:55:05,279
Speaker 1: in his ability to learn from mistakes. And in this

931
00:55:05,400 --> 00:55:07,719
Speaker 1: book you have you have traders like we went we

932
00:55:07,800 --> 00:55:13,160
Speaker 1: talked about Barge and as example, so uh, and he'll

933
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 1: record every trade and you know, whatever mistakes he's made,

934
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:20,280
Speaker 1: and mistakes and trading mistakes in emotional state, by trading

935
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:24,800
Speaker 1: when he's misertain emotional state. So so recognizing mistakes he

936
00:55:24,960 --> 00:55:28,320
Speaker 1: is really important. How you can approve as a trader

937
00:55:28,920 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 1: is by being able to recognize the mistakes you make

938
00:55:32,680 --> 00:55:36,759
Speaker 1: and to minimize or idea the eliminate but at least

939
00:55:36,800 --> 00:55:40,400
Speaker 1: minimize repeating those mistakes in the in the future. I mean,

940
00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:44,759
Speaker 1: that is probably the most effective way anybody can as

941
00:55:44,760 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 1: a trader. Really quite interesting, Um. One of the things

942
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:53,719
Speaker 1: that comes up pretty consistently is when you're when you're

943
00:55:53,800 --> 00:55:57,600
Speaker 1: having a losing trade, you're looking to do two things

944
00:55:58,239 --> 00:56:01,920
Speaker 1: conserve capital. But to think that really struck me was

945
00:56:02,160 --> 00:56:06,920
Speaker 1: how often people said I need to conserve my mental bandwidth.

946
00:56:07,440 --> 00:56:10,400
Speaker 1: Tell us a little bit about how how a trader

947
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:14,719
Speaker 1: conserves mental bandwidth as opposed to either being distracted or

948
00:56:14,840 --> 00:56:18,000
Speaker 1: just exhausting your bandwidth on on a losing trade. This

949
00:56:18,239 --> 00:56:22,680
Speaker 1: is sort of there are a number of trade but

950
00:56:22,760 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 1: Barge is a good example because he does this uh

951
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:30,520
Speaker 1: if if if he's something goes wrong, there are he

952
00:56:30,600 --> 00:56:34,320
Speaker 1: gets he gets knocked off his equilibrium by the market.

953
00:56:34,719 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: He'll he'll just stop, he'll he'll he'll take a breather,

954
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,080
Speaker 1: you know, he'll go away for the day, for a

955
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:43,799
Speaker 1: few days whatever. Uh, he breaks that, he breaks that cycle. Um,

956
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:49,800
Speaker 1: And it's important not to let your bad events in

957
00:56:49,880 --> 00:56:54,359
Speaker 1: the trade or negative negative outcomes and trading affect your

958
00:56:54,640 --> 00:56:58,200
Speaker 1: your mental state. And so and style makes the same point.

959
00:56:59,280 --> 00:57:05,120
Speaker 1: You you have to preserve your you're kind of mental validity.

960
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:08,880
Speaker 1: And uh if you don't want to get into this

961
00:57:09,480 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 1: cycle where you have a bad trade and another bad

962
00:57:13,080 --> 00:57:15,719
Speaker 1: trade and you start getting negative on yourself, you don't

963
00:57:15,800 --> 00:57:18,800
Speaker 1: want to let that that that get out of camp.

964
00:57:19,280 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 1: So you need to break that cycle because being in

965
00:57:22,800 --> 00:57:26,640
Speaker 1: the proper mental state is essential at least discretionary trade

966
00:57:26,920 --> 00:57:31,600
Speaker 1: is essential to being able to trade effectively as a

967
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:35,680
Speaker 1: discretionary trader. So so it's not just it's not just

968
00:57:35,840 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 1: a loss, it's the impact of that loss uh on

969
00:57:40,120 --> 00:57:43,640
Speaker 1: on other trades if you let it happen. And that's

970
00:57:43,680 --> 00:57:46,880
Speaker 1: what that's something people don't realize. It's just not you

971
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 1: take a loss and where you make a mistake. It's

972
00:57:49,080 --> 00:57:52,000
Speaker 1: not just that trade. But if you if you're not careful,

973
00:57:52,080 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 1: it can start affecting other trades and and and and

974
00:57:56,440 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 1: it can result in missing trades as well. So that

975
00:58:00,000 --> 00:58:03,360
Speaker 1: that's that's that's something that does come up thematically in

976
00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:07,360
Speaker 1: many interviews. Well, one of the traders referenced to quote

977
00:58:07,520 --> 00:58:12,120
Speaker 1: that I think was French composer Claude Debussy who said

978
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:16,840
Speaker 1: music is the space between the notes, and that was

979
00:58:17,000 --> 00:58:20,600
Speaker 1: their parallel for their trading approach. Tell us a little

980
00:58:20,600 --> 00:58:24,640
Speaker 1: bit about the space between the notes. This is actually

981
00:58:24,680 --> 00:58:27,520
Speaker 1: something that I that I used that I thought of,

982
00:58:28,160 --> 00:58:31,400
Speaker 1: um when I in the case of one particular trader,

983
00:58:31,400 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 1: and this is this is a trader in in hedge

984
00:58:33,600 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 1: fund market wizards and I follow. My name is Kevin Daily.

985
00:58:38,040 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: Now he uh, he's a what he calls himself a

986
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:45,520
Speaker 1: long short, you know, long short equity trader. Um. I

987
00:58:45,800 --> 00:58:48,320
Speaker 1: kind of put a quotes around the short because when

988
00:58:48,400 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 1: I interviewed him, turns out he has never had more

989
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 1: than a single digit short position's primary long for a

990
00:58:54,400 --> 00:58:58,840
Speaker 1: little bit of sprinting of shorts. Uh, Kevin starts starts

991
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:03,280
Speaker 1: his hedge fund in October nine. Now I don't know,

992
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:06,320
Speaker 1: but to me, October ninety nine is not the best

993
00:59:06,400 --> 00:59:08,440
Speaker 1: time to start a hedge fund which is gonna be

994
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:12,680
Speaker 1: primarily long. So I I interviewed him a decade later, um,

995
00:59:13,160 --> 00:59:16,200
Speaker 1: a decade later or or maybe twelve years later. H

996
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:19,480
Speaker 1: And at that point, yes, twelve years later. So it

997
00:59:19,520 --> 00:59:22,560
Speaker 1: was after the financial crisis. Yeah, it was after yeah,

998
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:26,360
Speaker 1: so so so so daily basically trades through the bear

999
00:59:26,480 --> 00:59:29,520
Speaker 1: market in two thousand, two thousand two, and the financial crisis.

1000
00:59:29,600 --> 00:59:32,000
Speaker 1: He does made you know, all the smoke clears by

1001
00:59:32,000 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 1: the time I interviewed him. He since he started his

1002
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 1: head fund, and in October nine that there was it was,

1003
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:38,800
Speaker 1: you know, there was some There was six months when

1004
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:41,040
Speaker 1: the market was still going up early on. But anyway,

1005
00:59:41,400 --> 00:59:44,200
Speaker 1: during that interim, turns out the SMP was pretty much

1006
00:59:44,240 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 1: close to dead flat. You know, his record cumulatively before fees,

1007
00:59:49,800 --> 00:59:51,600
Speaker 1: So we're just looking at the training aspect of it.

1008
00:59:51,880 --> 00:59:54,400
Speaker 1: His his his record accumulatively. I think he's up eight

1009
00:59:54,480 --> 00:59:57,160
Speaker 1: under a nine. So the question is the question is

1010
00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:59,800
Speaker 1: how does somebody cuninally make it under nine under the

1011
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:04,200
Speaker 1: and at the same time the market's going sideways. And yeah,

1012
01:00:04,360 --> 01:00:08,080
Speaker 1: so he in that chapter he really is pretty specific

1013
01:00:08,200 --> 01:00:11,920
Speaker 1: and quite detailed and all the all the he's he's

1014
01:00:11,920 --> 01:00:14,440
Speaker 1: a fundamental guy, and he he talks about all the

1015
01:00:14,520 --> 01:00:16,720
Speaker 1: things he looks at and yees, so he's a good

1016
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:19,439
Speaker 1: stock picker. Yeah, that's something out of it. But really

1017
01:00:19,520 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 1: the essence of it is that, um, when the market

1018
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:27,440
Speaker 1: environment wasn't good, like two thousand, two thousand two, uh,

1019
01:00:27,600 --> 01:00:29,760
Speaker 1: he actually during that three year period, even though he's

1020
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,680
Speaker 1: mostly long, he trades very little, and he's actually up

1021
01:00:32,760 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 1: slightly to that period in two thousand and eight. He

1022
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:38,200
Speaker 1: you know, when the markets you know, down, he's down

1023
01:00:38,320 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 1: like single digits. He's not trading that much. He recognize

1024
01:00:42,000 --> 01:00:45,280
Speaker 1: that the environment is bad. So essentially his success can

1025
01:00:45,320 --> 01:00:49,200
Speaker 1: be attributed, to my mind, more by when he didn't

1026
01:00:49,240 --> 01:00:52,120
Speaker 1: trade than when he did trade, because he had the

1027
01:00:52,240 --> 01:00:54,919
Speaker 1: right times not to trade. And that's why I used

1028
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:58,880
Speaker 1: that quote that that reminded me of that the beauty

1029
01:00:58,960 --> 01:01:02,360
Speaker 1: quote that they that music is the space between the notes,

1030
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,280
Speaker 1: and so to my mind, the analogy was, you know,

1031
01:01:05,400 --> 01:01:09,760
Speaker 1: good trading is the space between trades. Makes a lot

1032
01:01:09,800 --> 01:01:12,080
Speaker 1: of sense. You were a trader for a bit or

1033
01:01:12,200 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 1: I have to ask, are you still trading or you

1034
01:01:14,960 --> 01:01:18,360
Speaker 1: step back and more of an investor these days? Yeah,

1035
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:21,240
Speaker 1: So I was never an investment. What I invest in.

1036
01:01:21,760 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 1: An investment is basically real estate, you know, just you know,

1037
01:01:25,520 --> 01:01:28,240
Speaker 1: but that's kind of always I've had a bias to

1038
01:01:28,360 --> 01:01:31,560
Speaker 1: just that being a safe place to to keep money.

1039
01:01:32,040 --> 01:01:34,280
Speaker 1: You don't get a print every second, so that's the

1040
01:01:35,320 --> 01:01:38,400
Speaker 1: But it just makes just stakes in true of sense

1041
01:01:38,440 --> 01:01:41,760
Speaker 1: to me, and and particularly in environments where the markets

1042
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 1: have had long runs and an interest rate in the user,

1043
01:01:45,240 --> 01:01:47,640
Speaker 1: it just seems like like like the best place I

1044
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:50,920
Speaker 1: can think of to keep money. Uh so, you know whatever.

1045
01:01:51,240 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 1: But anyway, I actually clarify that unlike the people I interview,

1046
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 1: I actually don't see to myself a trader. I consider

1047
01:01:59,880 --> 01:02:01,480
Speaker 1: my off a lot of things before I said myself

1048
01:02:01,520 --> 01:02:04,320
Speaker 1: a trader, and trading for me is just a hobby

1049
01:02:04,480 --> 01:02:07,440
Speaker 1: and it's and it's something that I don't do continuously.

1050
01:02:07,520 --> 01:02:11,040
Speaker 1: And certainly you know those beers where those decades where's

1051
01:02:11,080 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 1: working you know, full time or whatever. It was always

1052
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:16,760
Speaker 1: a side issue, and even even a six side of that.

1053
01:02:17,280 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 1: It depends on a certain circumstances, depends if on the

1054
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:22,680
Speaker 1: mood of trade or whatever. So I'll there be periods

1055
01:02:22,680 --> 01:02:24,680
Speaker 1: where all trade and the peris but you don't trade.

1056
01:02:24,720 --> 01:02:27,960
Speaker 1: And strictly it's more of a hobby to me than

1057
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:31,400
Speaker 1: than anything else. And and if I start not doing

1058
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:34,160
Speaker 1: well in my trading, I'll stop trading. And then you know,

1059
01:02:34,200 --> 01:02:36,320
Speaker 1: a few months later I said, oh yeah, maybe I'll

1060
01:02:36,320 --> 01:02:39,240
Speaker 1: feel it trading. But so so one day, the one

1061
01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:43,760
Speaker 1: day the sidles feels right again. So that's that's it.

1062
01:02:43,840 --> 01:02:45,800
Speaker 1: So it's like again, it's it's a it's a it's

1063
01:02:45,800 --> 01:02:48,280
Speaker 1: a hobby, nothing, not a not a not a full

1064
01:02:48,320 --> 01:02:51,920
Speaker 1: time endeavor. But but you've clearly picked up some things

1065
01:02:52,240 --> 01:02:56,360
Speaker 1: from from some of the traders you you've interviewed, which

1066
01:02:56,480 --> 01:03:00,640
Speaker 1: raises which raises the question, um, how different is it

1067
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:04,280
Speaker 1: this time? You know, there's there's been people scoffing um

1068
01:03:05,160 --> 01:03:08,240
Speaker 1: at the markets. I don't know for since O eight

1069
01:03:08,320 --> 01:03:12,560
Speaker 1: oh nine, I've I've continuously read about people who are

1070
01:03:12,600 --> 01:03:16,040
Speaker 1: pushing back against the FED and zerup and keewee and

1071
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:20,320
Speaker 1: and pretty much, but for the COVID pandemic, the market's

1072
01:03:20,320 --> 01:03:23,960
Speaker 1: gone mostly up over that period. How do you how

1073
01:03:24,000 --> 01:03:27,480
Speaker 1: do you respond to people who tell you, hey, this

1074
01:03:27,680 --> 01:03:30,600
Speaker 1: is a bubble, you can't trade at the fittest ruins everything.

1075
01:03:31,000 --> 01:03:35,440
Speaker 1: What's the standard response to that, Well, apparently it's not

1076
01:03:35,640 --> 01:03:38,320
Speaker 1: the case because there are people trading very effectively and

1077
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:41,960
Speaker 1: not necessarily, not necessarily because they're long a biased uh.

1078
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:44,280
Speaker 1: In many cases. You know a lot of these traders

1079
01:03:44,320 --> 01:03:46,720
Speaker 1: in the book are are an equity raders at all,

1080
01:03:47,280 --> 01:03:51,400
Speaker 1: so so their their success is not coming from the market.

1081
01:03:51,440 --> 01:03:53,960
Speaker 1: And even when the requity traders, they could be both

1082
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:56,840
Speaker 1: on the walk short side. So I think those traders

1083
01:03:56,840 --> 01:03:59,400
Speaker 1: who are in this book equally traders are are on

1084
01:03:59,480 --> 01:04:01,800
Speaker 1: both sides the market. So I would say it has

1085
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:04,120
Speaker 1: nothing to do with the market being in a pown market.

1086
01:04:04,520 --> 01:04:07,440
Speaker 1: Being successful trading is is more, you know, man, that

1087
01:04:07,600 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 1: matter the the individual methnology and as far as the

1088
01:04:13,000 --> 01:04:17,280
Speaker 1: whole premise about well, at some point they're gonna be right.

1089
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:22,240
Speaker 1: But you find where I find that traders who are

1090
01:04:22,320 --> 01:04:26,800
Speaker 1: successful that the forecasting is not the is not the thing.

1091
01:04:27,680 --> 01:04:30,440
Speaker 1: If they may think of markets going to act in

1092
01:04:30,480 --> 01:04:33,680
Speaker 1: a certain way, they they have plans to to to act,

1093
01:04:33,920 --> 01:04:36,680
Speaker 1: you know, to respond to that, and they'll they'll be

1094
01:04:36,720 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 1: out quickly if they're wrong. You know, the best quote

1095
01:04:39,840 --> 01:04:42,640
Speaker 1: here is uh is speed of Graham, and and it

1096
01:04:42,880 --> 01:04:45,960
Speaker 1: is the UH. I like his quote so much that

1097
01:04:46,000 --> 01:04:48,520
Speaker 1: I think I used it as the title of the

1098
01:04:48,920 --> 01:04:52,320
Speaker 1: of this chapter, which is strong opinions weakly held. So

1099
01:04:52,960 --> 01:04:54,920
Speaker 1: he puts on a trade, he has a strong opinion.

1100
01:04:55,480 --> 01:04:58,320
Speaker 1: But if he goes, you know, with in his words

1101
01:04:58,360 --> 01:05:00,920
Speaker 1: for paraphrasing, if the market puts and in this pocket,

1102
01:05:00,960 --> 01:05:04,960
Speaker 1: he's out. So you can have a strong opinion, but

1103
01:05:05,480 --> 01:05:07,720
Speaker 1: you have to be very like Peter says, you know,

1104
01:05:08,520 --> 01:05:11,480
Speaker 1: you have to hold it weakly. And if if they're

1105
01:05:11,520 --> 01:05:13,520
Speaker 1: not right, you have to you have to ment you

1106
01:05:13,600 --> 01:05:16,440
Speaker 1: wrong and just get out of the way. So people

1107
01:05:16,480 --> 01:05:18,960
Speaker 1: who have this premise that the market is going to

1108
01:05:19,040 --> 01:05:21,040
Speaker 1: do this, or the forecasting it's going to do that,

1109
01:05:21,720 --> 01:05:26,400
Speaker 1: that's usually not only not helpful, but it's usually counterproductive.

1110
01:05:27,120 --> 01:05:30,960
Speaker 1: I'm with you on that completely. Um let me let

1111
01:05:31,040 --> 01:05:34,080
Speaker 1: me ask you an interesting thing. That the book is

1112
01:05:34,120 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 1: really divided into two halves. The first part is futures trading,

1113
01:05:38,280 --> 01:05:41,680
Speaker 1: the second part is stock trading stock traders, and then

1114
01:05:41,800 --> 01:05:44,480
Speaker 1: you have rules and there's in appendix and there's additional stuff.

1115
01:05:45,040 --> 01:05:49,840
Speaker 1: But I can't help but notice given how crazy n

1116
01:05:49,920 --> 01:05:52,320
Speaker 1: f T s and crypto and bitcoin and all that

1117
01:05:52,480 --> 01:05:55,800
Speaker 1: stuff has gone. There's not a lot of there's not

1118
01:05:55,800 --> 01:05:58,480
Speaker 1: a whole lot of mention of of crypto trading in

1119
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:01,360
Speaker 1: this What are your thought it's on this space? It's

1120
01:06:01,520 --> 01:06:05,480
Speaker 1: pretty clear some people have made hundreds of millions, if

1121
01:06:05,560 --> 01:06:09,320
Speaker 1: not billions. I think the the Winkle Vieys funds is

1122
01:06:09,400 --> 01:06:12,520
Speaker 1: now up to something like two billion dollars from what

1123
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:16,200
Speaker 1: they rolled over a few hundred million in Facebook stock.

1124
01:06:16,720 --> 01:06:19,240
Speaker 1: What what is your thoughts on that space and how

1125
01:06:19,360 --> 01:06:22,280
Speaker 1: people might be trading it? Yeah, well, for for all,

1126
01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:25,080
Speaker 1: there's the one Jeff Newman, you know, is the one

1127
01:06:25,120 --> 01:06:28,439
Speaker 1: trader who did mention who did trade crypto, and it's

1128
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:31,080
Speaker 1: because it fits into the way he trades markets. He's

1129
01:06:31,120 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 1: looking just for being early to anticipate when something's going

1130
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:37,160
Speaker 1: to happen, when the markets just getting interested in something.

1131
01:06:37,280 --> 01:06:39,560
Speaker 1: So crypto was just another thing and it had nothing

1132
01:06:39,560 --> 01:06:41,720
Speaker 1: to do with crypto itself, and it's just it was

1133
01:06:41,800 --> 01:06:44,480
Speaker 1: like a new product in a way. So um, so

1134
01:06:44,920 --> 01:06:47,400
Speaker 1: it's come up in that chapter. You know. My own feeling,

1135
01:06:47,600 --> 01:06:49,720
Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm kind of old school and I

1136
01:06:49,720 --> 01:06:52,600
Speaker 1: always look uncomfortable. My my initial in commination was the

1137
01:06:53,080 --> 01:06:55,240
Speaker 1: say the looks like, you know, it looks like a

1138
01:06:55,280 --> 01:06:59,120
Speaker 1: bubble and I, you know, uh the thing that but

1139
01:06:59,200 --> 01:07:03,360
Speaker 1: I've avoid it, uh by and large, I don't. On

1140
01:07:03,560 --> 01:07:06,040
Speaker 1: one hand, I kind of it looks bubble like in

1141
01:07:06,320 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 1: a lot of ways. But there is a The one

1142
01:07:10,080 --> 01:07:12,040
Speaker 1: thing I guess has kept me away is there that

1143
01:07:12,160 --> 01:07:15,720
Speaker 1: there it's kind of odd for something like bitcoin, you know,

1144
01:07:15,840 --> 01:07:18,520
Speaker 1: the main some a bitcoin like bitcoin was the main one.

1145
01:07:19,240 --> 01:07:21,840
Speaker 1: There is actually there's an apple. There's two things that

1146
01:07:22,160 --> 01:07:25,640
Speaker 1: counted that argument. One there's actually a use for it,

1147
01:07:25,800 --> 01:07:27,920
Speaker 1: and the use is not The use is not what

1148
01:07:28,000 --> 01:07:31,520
Speaker 1: people say. It's not an alternative currency. No reasonable alternative

1149
01:07:31,560 --> 01:07:34,600
Speaker 1: currency will swing in a short period of time, not

1150
01:07:34,760 --> 01:07:37,640
Speaker 1: usable as as in that way. But what it is

1151
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 1: useful for is actually quite It's an a various usage,

1152
01:07:41,200 --> 01:07:43,840
Speaker 1: but the market doesn't care. You know, it's you don't

1153
01:07:43,880 --> 01:07:48,520
Speaker 1: like ransomware or other things of that nature. Black market.

1154
01:07:48,960 --> 01:07:51,240
Speaker 1: So there is a there is a use for it,

1155
01:07:51,480 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 1: right so that it's not like some other things, like

1156
01:07:55,000 --> 01:07:57,880
Speaker 1: like internet companies that started out losing money and never

1157
01:07:57,960 --> 01:08:00,360
Speaker 1: made a dimond. Just the longer there just the more

1158
01:08:00,400 --> 01:08:02,680
Speaker 1: money they lost, there's no way they could do. So

1159
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:04,520
Speaker 1: that's an example of a bubble where there was just

1160
01:08:04,640 --> 01:08:08,360
Speaker 1: no no rationale whatsoever. Here's a rationale. It's not particularly

1161
01:08:08,400 --> 01:08:11,760
Speaker 1: attractive rationale, but it's a rationale. And if this be used,

1162
01:08:11,800 --> 01:08:13,600
Speaker 1: the market will put a value on it. And then

1163
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:15,520
Speaker 1: the other thing is a scarcity to the only bitcoin.

1164
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:18,080
Speaker 1: There could be only a certain number of bitcoin. So

1165
01:08:18,640 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 1: so that's a you know, defined maximum numbers. So there

1166
01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:25,680
Speaker 1: there are countervailing arguments and and that's what. If it

1167
01:08:25,800 --> 01:08:27,600
Speaker 1: wasn't for those two things, I think I would have

1168
01:08:27,680 --> 01:08:30,439
Speaker 1: been inclined that you know, to look at it as

1169
01:08:30,479 --> 01:08:34,360
Speaker 1: a bubble. But certain other things like dose coin, which

1170
01:08:34,360 --> 01:08:36,120
Speaker 1: starts as a joke and then goes you know, it

1171
01:08:36,160 --> 01:08:38,479
Speaker 1: goes up, but you know, God knows somebody percent. I

1172
01:08:38,560 --> 01:08:42,400
Speaker 1: think a lot of those me two coins over time

1173
01:08:42,479 --> 01:08:46,280
Speaker 1: will eventually my own feeling probably go don't go to nothing.

1174
01:08:46,800 --> 01:08:48,840
Speaker 1: Um And you know, so I think there are certainly

1175
01:08:48,920 --> 01:08:53,200
Speaker 1: elements of of of a bubble bubble in this whole sphere.

1176
01:08:53,720 --> 01:08:56,240
Speaker 1: There might be some you know, some that survive and

1177
01:08:56,640 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 1: maybe go much higher. I don't know, but not my

1178
01:08:59,439 --> 01:09:04,120
Speaker 1: expertise is just kind of my thoughts. Huh, very very interesting.

1179
01:09:04,680 --> 01:09:08,120
Speaker 1: Um So what would you need to see from one

1180
01:09:08,160 --> 01:09:12,280
Speaker 1: of these traders before you hand it over your capital

1181
01:09:12,439 --> 01:09:16,120
Speaker 1: to them to manage for you. And really, this is

1182
01:09:16,200 --> 01:09:18,280
Speaker 1: a broad This is a broad question. It's not so

1183
01:09:18,439 --> 01:09:21,519
Speaker 1: much literal as what do you need to see before

1184
01:09:21,560 --> 01:09:25,240
Speaker 1: you write a check? But you've witnessed a ton of

1185
01:09:25,520 --> 01:09:31,200
Speaker 1: different um traders and fund managers. I think your perspective

1186
01:09:31,240 --> 01:09:35,360
Speaker 1: would be helpful for those people who wrestle with what

1187
01:09:35,479 --> 01:09:37,280
Speaker 1: do I need to do in order to feel comfortable

1188
01:09:37,439 --> 01:09:40,559
Speaker 1: giving money to a third party to manage from me? Yeah,

1189
01:09:40,680 --> 01:09:45,320
Speaker 1: well a few points. First of all, I would focus

1190
01:09:45,400 --> 01:09:48,479
Speaker 1: more on return to risk rather than just return, because

1191
01:09:48,520 --> 01:09:52,080
Speaker 1: you do have managers out there that that will put

1192
01:09:52,160 --> 01:09:56,040
Speaker 1: up spectacular returns, but they also have spectacular losses. And

1193
01:09:57,160 --> 01:09:59,320
Speaker 1: the truth of the matter is, even if it's over

1194
01:09:59,400 --> 01:10:02,160
Speaker 1: the long run, they turn out okay. But if you

1195
01:10:02,200 --> 01:10:06,200
Speaker 1: have these giant drawer downs, the reality is even investors

1196
01:10:06,280 --> 01:10:10,439
Speaker 1: don't survive. They they just mail out. So you may

1197
01:10:10,520 --> 01:10:12,960
Speaker 1: look at it the benefit of hindsight, the track record

1198
01:10:13,320 --> 01:10:15,240
Speaker 1: that look has a good return and with a lot

1199
01:10:15,280 --> 01:10:17,519
Speaker 1: of volatility, and you said, oh, well it all works

1200
01:10:17,560 --> 01:10:19,960
Speaker 1: out fine. Yeah, it works out fine because you're looking

1201
01:10:20,000 --> 01:10:22,640
Speaker 1: with hindsight. But believe me, if you're going fresh and

1202
01:10:22,720 --> 01:10:26,040
Speaker 1: you have that type of track record, you're gonna blow

1203
01:10:26,080 --> 01:10:30,240
Speaker 1: out somewhere in the middle logue or or plus investors will.

1204
01:10:30,640 --> 01:10:32,639
Speaker 1: So I think it's important to look at the return risk,

1205
01:10:32,760 --> 01:10:36,320
Speaker 1: not just not just to return. Uh. Another element is

1206
01:10:36,400 --> 01:10:40,200
Speaker 1: you want to have a sense that there's some explanation

1207
01:10:40,320 --> 01:10:43,840
Speaker 1: of why that person has done particularly well, that that

1208
01:10:44,520 --> 01:10:47,280
Speaker 1: would there would be a reason to expect it to continue.

1209
01:10:47,560 --> 01:10:50,840
Speaker 1: And that's not would always easy to do, but that's

1210
01:10:50,880 --> 01:10:54,240
Speaker 1: I think important And and I guess another the last

1211
01:10:54,240 --> 01:10:56,960
Speaker 1: time I was making it's very difficult, like the old cliche,

1212
01:10:57,200 --> 01:10:59,720
Speaker 1: and it's not a cliche for no reason. It's a

1213
01:11:00,120 --> 01:11:03,759
Speaker 1: past performance is not a is no guarantee of future performance.

1214
01:11:03,800 --> 01:11:06,080
Speaker 1: So you can do everything right and the person could

1215
01:11:06,080 --> 01:11:09,240
Speaker 1: still end up not doing well. And there is a

1216
01:11:09,880 --> 01:11:12,880
Speaker 1: there is a regression to the mean problem here, because

1217
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:16,320
Speaker 1: when you pick people who have done very well, it's

1218
01:11:16,439 --> 01:11:18,800
Speaker 1: hard for them to continue with that extreme and there's

1219
01:11:20,080 --> 01:11:23,040
Speaker 1: it's almost natural for to have aggression to the mean.

1220
01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:26,599
Speaker 1: Uh and uh, so I would expect that. I mean,

1221
01:11:26,760 --> 01:11:28,519
Speaker 1: even if people who have done extream well, I would

1222
01:11:28,560 --> 01:11:31,360
Speaker 1: not I would be unrealistic to expect them to continue

1223
01:11:31,360 --> 01:11:34,800
Speaker 1: to do as well. In the future. You have to

1224
01:11:34,960 --> 01:11:37,599
Speaker 1: be comfortable saying, well, even if they's great this much,

1225
01:11:37,640 --> 01:11:43,240
Speaker 1: it's still fine, really really intriguing. Um. We mentioned Peter

1226
01:11:43,360 --> 01:11:46,200
Speaker 1: Grant has been around for quite a while, but it

1227
01:11:46,320 --> 01:11:49,679
Speaker 1: comes back to just about everybody else in the book.

1228
01:11:49,720 --> 01:11:51,840
Speaker 1: Are are on the youngest side. There are a few

1229
01:11:51,880 --> 01:11:55,160
Speaker 1: people who have been around for for a decade or two.

1230
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:59,240
Speaker 1: Do you get the sense that trading is a is

1231
01:11:59,320 --> 01:12:03,519
Speaker 1: a young person this game? How how does this new

1232
01:12:03,600 --> 01:12:07,799
Speaker 1: crop of traders make you feel about the previous traders

1233
01:12:07,840 --> 01:12:11,000
Speaker 1: you looked at in the past couple of bucks. I

1234
01:12:11,120 --> 01:12:13,800
Speaker 1: guess you're right on that. I didn't think about it,

1235
01:12:13,920 --> 01:12:18,200
Speaker 1: but I guess with a couple of exceptions there, they're

1236
01:12:18,360 --> 01:12:22,040
Speaker 1: younger as a group. I I did. I I do

1237
01:12:22,240 --> 01:12:24,400
Speaker 1: try to get people who have at least a decade

1238
01:12:24,479 --> 01:12:27,880
Speaker 1: or longer of trading. And I think Barge was the

1239
01:12:28,040 --> 01:12:30,920
Speaker 1: one exception I made at the time I interviewed me

1240
01:12:30,960 --> 01:12:32,600
Speaker 1: only any about eight years, but I thought it was

1241
01:12:32,640 --> 01:12:36,439
Speaker 1: so exceptional that it it merited being in there. Um,

1242
01:12:36,920 --> 01:12:39,960
Speaker 1: So even though they're young, they still have Yeah, I

1243
01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:41,920
Speaker 1: wouldn't take anybody was like a three or four year

1244
01:12:41,920 --> 01:12:44,760
Speaker 1: ago or something like that. So they still have a

1245
01:12:45,200 --> 01:12:49,000
Speaker 1: decade plus in almost all cases, the fact that I I,

1246
01:12:49,439 --> 01:12:52,160
Speaker 1: you know, it just ended up being maybe because I

1247
01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:55,880
Speaker 1: was looking at individual traders, it just turned out that

1248
01:12:55,960 --> 01:12:59,120
Speaker 1: those that proper traders and being on the on the

1249
01:12:59,240 --> 01:13:03,439
Speaker 1: younger side, this problem maybe more interest now among the

1250
01:13:03,720 --> 01:13:06,960
Speaker 1: people of trading than than previously. Maybe that's another bias.

1251
01:13:08,280 --> 01:13:12,600
Speaker 1: It just it just just ended up it wasn't I

1252
01:13:12,680 --> 01:13:16,160
Speaker 1: don't know if that's if that's representative of traders as

1253
01:13:16,160 --> 01:13:19,360
Speaker 1: a whole. It's certily hard, too small of a sample,

1254
01:13:20,080 --> 01:13:24,320
Speaker 1: and and everything only about the less than a dozen traders,

1255
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:26,559
Speaker 1: and a couple of them have been around for quite

1256
01:13:26,560 --> 01:13:30,840
Speaker 1: a while, so even there, it's not not exclusively you

1257
01:13:31,960 --> 01:13:35,600
Speaker 1: really really kind of kind of interesting. Let's stick with

1258
01:13:35,720 --> 01:13:40,720
Speaker 1: the current environment. Um by the dip has really that

1259
01:13:40,880 --> 01:13:45,960
Speaker 1: mentality has really taken hold. We saw the thirty pandemic

1260
01:13:47,520 --> 01:13:50,920
Speaker 1: sell off and what was that barely five or six

1261
01:13:51,040 --> 01:13:54,600
Speaker 1: weeks and and market I think it bottomed the end

1262
01:13:54,640 --> 01:13:59,120
Speaker 1: of March and the market had recovered by August. What

1263
01:13:59,360 --> 01:14:02,759
Speaker 1: what does this mean? Is this suggest relate in the cycle,

1264
01:14:03,120 --> 01:14:06,240
Speaker 1: or hey, if it's been working for the past ten years,

1265
01:14:06,280 --> 01:14:09,000
Speaker 1: people are gonna keep doing till it's doing it until

1266
01:14:09,080 --> 01:14:11,559
Speaker 1: it stops. How how do you how do you look

1267
01:14:11,600 --> 01:14:16,200
Speaker 1: at this? Say, okay, so that almost approaches forecasting zoom

1268
01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:19,439
Speaker 1: begetting something. That's not a matter of advice. But I

1269
01:14:19,520 --> 01:14:22,760
Speaker 1: will say this. I did a book seven eight years

1270
01:14:22,760 --> 01:14:25,600
Speaker 1: ago called Market Sense and Nonsense, And in one of

1271
01:14:25,640 --> 01:14:29,680
Speaker 1: the chapters in that book, I basically well and so

1272
01:14:30,400 --> 01:14:32,760
Speaker 1: there I try to dispel some of these some of

1273
01:14:32,800 --> 01:14:36,280
Speaker 1: the myths and misconceptions and mistakes people making markets. And

1274
01:14:36,360 --> 01:14:39,680
Speaker 1: one of them was this idea of and of investing

1275
01:14:39,760 --> 01:14:41,720
Speaker 1: when things are you know, when things have been good.

1276
01:14:42,200 --> 01:14:46,000
Speaker 1: And I didn't now actually going back you know, back

1277
01:14:46,080 --> 01:14:48,960
Speaker 1: in the eighteen fifties in terms of data, uh, and

1278
01:14:49,320 --> 01:14:53,160
Speaker 1: just show that I took five year periods and fifty

1279
01:14:53,600 --> 01:14:55,320
Speaker 1: and I showed what happened in the next five and

1280
01:14:55,840 --> 01:14:59,960
Speaker 1: twenty depending on on the previous and and not surprised

1281
01:15:00,000 --> 01:15:02,120
Speaker 1: only to be at least is you know, when you

1282
01:15:02,200 --> 01:15:05,200
Speaker 1: invested when they're when the last five and twenty years

1283
01:15:05,280 --> 01:15:09,439
Speaker 1: were relatively poor, you did extremely well. And vice versa,

1284
01:15:10,040 --> 01:15:12,679
Speaker 1: if you invested if they're really well. So the fact

1285
01:15:12,760 --> 01:15:17,040
Speaker 1: that now we've had a pretty much as you say that,

1286
01:15:18,000 --> 01:15:20,599
Speaker 1: minor exceptions here and here we've had a running bolt

1287
01:15:20,680 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 1: market since two thousand and eight. It's getting a bit old.

1288
01:15:24,320 --> 01:15:29,599
Speaker 1: And so I would say probability wise now investing over

1289
01:15:29,640 --> 01:15:33,360
Speaker 1: the next five, ten years, fifteen years has become at

1290
01:15:33,439 --> 01:15:36,600
Speaker 1: the at this point has become much less attractive. Just

1291
01:15:37,160 --> 01:15:40,599
Speaker 1: some straight statistics and numbers and and that's just the reality.

1292
01:15:40,600 --> 01:15:43,519
Speaker 1: It's not a forecast. So I just put to put

1293
01:15:43,640 --> 01:15:46,559
Speaker 1: that in perspective. And my advice, especially when they speak

1294
01:15:46,560 --> 01:15:49,639
Speaker 1: to younger people, always is putting party of money long

1295
01:15:49,800 --> 01:15:52,599
Speaker 1: term in the market is a good idea, but try

1296
01:15:52,720 --> 01:15:55,360
Speaker 1: to but it's best to do it when everybody hates

1297
01:15:55,439 --> 01:15:59,080
Speaker 1: the market. It's much less attractive when you've been on

1298
01:15:59,120 --> 01:16:02,880
Speaker 1: a low long, long long bull market like we are now.

1299
01:16:03,240 --> 01:16:06,160
Speaker 1: So yeah, I don't know, could could then you could

1300
01:16:06,240 --> 01:16:08,600
Speaker 1: end next week, could then two years when I don't know.

1301
01:16:09,240 --> 01:16:11,360
Speaker 1: But I would just say the probabilities now are much

1302
01:16:11,520 --> 01:16:14,840
Speaker 1: less favorably skewed than they would have been. You know

1303
01:16:15,880 --> 01:16:18,880
Speaker 1: what's earlier on So you're you're touching on one of

1304
01:16:18,960 --> 01:16:21,640
Speaker 1: my pet peeves, and and so let's talk about this.

1305
01:16:22,560 --> 01:16:24,880
Speaker 1: You know, when we look at these long term bull

1306
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:28,360
Speaker 1: markets following World War Two is forty six to about

1307
01:16:28,439 --> 01:16:34,400
Speaker 1: sixty six um following the inflation and oil embargo in

1308
01:16:34,439 --> 01:16:37,560
Speaker 1: the sixties and seventies. The new bull market started in

1309
01:16:37,720 --> 01:16:42,040
Speaker 1: eighty two and ran to two thousand. But in in historically,

1310
01:16:42,120 --> 01:16:44,679
Speaker 1: when we look at these bull markets, we don't date

1311
01:16:44,800 --> 01:16:47,960
Speaker 1: them to the bottom of the prior low. We we

1312
01:16:48,160 --> 01:16:51,080
Speaker 1: date them to when the market breaks out from that

1313
01:16:51,280 --> 01:16:55,320
Speaker 1: prior long trading range. So the Dow kiss the thousand

1314
01:16:55,400 --> 01:16:57,479
Speaker 1: and sixty six, it didn't get over on a permanent

1315
01:16:57,520 --> 01:17:01,800
Speaker 1: basis till eighty two. We we don't date apple market v.

1316
01:17:02,000 --> 01:17:06,080
Speaker 1: Four bear market lows. Why is everybody so fixated on

1317
01:17:06,280 --> 01:17:11,320
Speaker 1: March O nine? That's the low of arguably a thirteen

1318
01:17:11,439 --> 01:17:15,439
Speaker 1: year long secular bear market that started in March two

1319
01:17:15,520 --> 01:17:19,880
Speaker 1: thousand and it ended in March when markets got over

1320
01:17:19,960 --> 01:17:23,479
Speaker 1: and above that trading range. Does that make any difference

1321
01:17:23,560 --> 01:17:26,280
Speaker 1: to how you look at markets? Am I being a

1322
01:17:26,360 --> 01:17:30,360
Speaker 1: little pen pedantic here or you know, everybody just seems

1323
01:17:30,400 --> 01:17:34,280
Speaker 1: so hyper focused on March O nine. Well, what it

1324
01:17:34,400 --> 01:17:36,560
Speaker 1: has to do with, you know, the point I just

1325
01:17:36,640 --> 01:17:40,680
Speaker 1: making before is is what the prior record was, so, uh,

1326
01:17:41,680 --> 01:17:46,040
Speaker 1: you know, from from that point forward, years work now,

1327
01:17:46,920 --> 01:17:51,439
Speaker 1: so you have a long period of favorable returns and

1328
01:17:52,040 --> 01:17:54,400
Speaker 1: and that's the type of statistic when I'm looking at

1329
01:17:54,800 --> 01:17:56,880
Speaker 1: what the market do in the past thing or fifteen

1330
01:17:56,920 --> 01:17:59,560
Speaker 1: or twenty years, that's the type of statistic that that

1331
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:02,479
Speaker 1: would be relevant. That's a type of statistic that's gonna

1332
01:18:02,600 --> 01:18:04,400
Speaker 1: look strong. It's not the fact just that it was

1333
01:18:04,439 --> 01:18:06,479
Speaker 1: the bottom. It just happens to be that for a

1334
01:18:06,560 --> 01:18:09,639
Speaker 1: long period of time the market has had very, very

1335
01:18:09,840 --> 01:18:14,800
Speaker 1: above average returns. Huh. Quite interesting. And then the curve

1336
01:18:14,880 --> 01:18:16,960
Speaker 1: ball question I have to ask you before we get

1337
01:18:17,000 --> 01:18:20,280
Speaker 1: to our favorite questions is simply, are we going to

1338
01:18:20,320 --> 01:18:24,519
Speaker 1: see yet another market Wizard's book after this? Are there's

1339
01:18:24,560 --> 01:18:28,679
Speaker 1: still more traders to be uncovered? Yeah, well, there's certainly

1340
01:18:28,760 --> 01:18:32,519
Speaker 1: more traders to be uncovered. Uh, but that's not necessarily

1341
01:18:32,520 --> 01:18:35,840
Speaker 1: correlative with another market wizars book. So um, whenever I

1342
01:18:35,920 --> 01:18:39,439
Speaker 1: finished one of these, I don't anticipate another one, and

1343
01:18:39,560 --> 01:18:43,680
Speaker 1: so far always another one I just didn't want to

1344
01:18:44,080 --> 01:18:47,040
Speaker 1: and typically no complete reception of the second book, which

1345
01:18:47,360 --> 01:18:49,160
Speaker 1: which I did a few years after the first one,

1346
01:18:49,240 --> 01:18:52,840
Speaker 1: because the first one was such a big hit and

1347
01:18:53,720 --> 01:18:55,519
Speaker 1: I still had a number quite a number of trainer

1348
01:18:55,520 --> 01:18:58,599
Speaker 1: as I hadn't gotten to. So I did that those

1349
01:18:58,640 --> 01:19:01,000
Speaker 1: only three years upon. But than that, the books have

1350
01:19:01,080 --> 01:19:05,000
Speaker 1: been space seven or ten years apart, and I don't

1351
01:19:05,040 --> 01:19:07,479
Speaker 1: have to spay do one anywhere in the foreseeable future.

1352
01:19:08,120 --> 01:19:11,000
Speaker 1: And I kind of I'm skeptical if I'll do another one,

1353
01:19:11,160 --> 01:19:13,519
Speaker 1: but I guess I haven't been right about that in

1354
01:19:13,600 --> 01:19:15,759
Speaker 1: the past, so I will make that an absolute prediction.

1355
01:19:16,160 --> 01:19:18,760
Speaker 1: Never never say never. Alright, So so let's jump to

1356
01:19:18,840 --> 01:19:21,960
Speaker 1: our favorite questions that we ask all our guests, starting

1357
01:19:22,040 --> 01:19:24,120
Speaker 1: with tell us what you're streaming these days? Give us

1358
01:19:24,160 --> 01:19:28,400
Speaker 1: your favorite Netflix or Amazon Prime shows or whatever podcast

1359
01:19:28,439 --> 01:19:32,360
Speaker 1: you're listening to. What's keeping you entertained during the pandemic?

1360
01:19:32,720 --> 01:19:37,080
Speaker 1: Sure so, so really strong recommendation here for a UK

1361
01:19:37,280 --> 01:19:42,400
Speaker 1: program called Clarkson's Farm, which I like, that enormously entertaining

1362
01:19:43,000 --> 01:19:46,679
Speaker 1: about Jeremy Clarkson, who, during the COVID year he owns Farmly,

1363
01:19:46,800 --> 01:19:49,040
Speaker 1: it's a big farm in the UK, in the UK,

1364
01:19:49,720 --> 01:19:53,160
Speaker 1: and he besides, well why not following himself? So the

1365
01:19:53,240 --> 01:19:55,400
Speaker 1: reason I like it one, he is it's just a

1366
01:19:55,520 --> 01:19:58,160
Speaker 1: great sense of humor and it underlies the whole show.

1367
01:19:58,680 --> 01:20:00,479
Speaker 1: And second, it gives you to appreciate issue that just

1368
01:20:00,760 --> 01:20:04,000
Speaker 1: how dawn and difficult farming is. So the combination of that,

1369
01:20:04,320 --> 01:20:06,960
Speaker 1: I made that a great series. And then there's one

1370
01:20:07,000 --> 01:20:10,280
Speaker 1: I just watched recently, which is which is of a

1371
01:20:11,479 --> 01:20:15,280
Speaker 1: one of these eight series type of single story things

1372
01:20:15,439 --> 01:20:18,439
Speaker 1: that maybe call it a thrill or whatever, um, but

1373
01:20:18,600 --> 01:20:22,200
Speaker 1: really well done, holds consistently way above average. Is a

1374
01:20:22,240 --> 01:20:25,960
Speaker 1: typical one, and it's called clickbait. So I would recommend that.

1375
01:20:26,400 --> 01:20:30,479
Speaker 1: And oh and recently I this is decades old, probably,

1376
01:20:30,479 --> 01:20:33,840
Speaker 1: but I finally got around to Washington. Of course, of

1377
01:20:33,880 --> 01:20:37,360
Speaker 1: course they see's uh documentary on on Dylan. It's like

1378
01:20:37,880 --> 01:20:40,840
Speaker 1: three half hours long called No Direction Home. And if

1379
01:20:41,320 --> 01:20:43,720
Speaker 1: if you're a fan of early Dylan, it's it's a

1380
01:20:43,800 --> 01:20:48,360
Speaker 1: high recommendation. And one last one on the podcast. I've

1381
01:20:48,400 --> 01:20:51,160
Speaker 1: got a new favorite podcast over the last couple of years,

1382
01:20:51,800 --> 01:20:56,040
Speaker 1: and it's called Cautionary Tales and it's by it's Tim

1383
01:20:56,120 --> 01:20:59,600
Speaker 1: Tim Harford, whos goes by the name of the cover Economists.

1384
01:21:00,160 --> 01:21:05,720
Speaker 1: It's a phenomenal, phenomenally well done show. Uh, he's so

1385
01:21:06,120 --> 01:21:11,560
Speaker 1: so many interesting things he pulls up just just not

1386
01:21:11,680 --> 01:21:15,080
Speaker 1: only highly entertained. But didn't you if you're interested in

1387
01:21:15,360 --> 01:21:19,880
Speaker 1: in um in the pavial economics that really uh, it's

1388
01:21:19,880 --> 01:21:23,479
Speaker 1: not it's not educational in that way, but it comes

1389
01:21:23,520 --> 01:21:25,720
Speaker 1: out of the story and so to speak. And uh,

1390
01:21:26,080 --> 01:21:29,680
Speaker 1: he does a great job in doing the narrative. So um,

1391
01:21:29,960 --> 01:21:36,439
Speaker 1: like I said, highly recommended courtionary tales really interesting. Uh,

1392
01:21:36,560 --> 01:21:38,840
Speaker 1: tell us about some of your mentors who helped shape

1393
01:21:38,920 --> 01:21:42,519
Speaker 1: your career over time. There really is only one mentor

1394
01:21:42,880 --> 01:21:47,320
Speaker 1: in my case, and he was a close friend. Unfortunately

1395
01:21:47,400 --> 01:21:49,200
Speaker 1: he had a few years the number of years ago

1396
01:21:49,479 --> 01:21:53,479
Speaker 1: named Steve Chronowitz. Um. And you won't find anything about

1397
01:21:53,479 --> 01:21:57,240
Speaker 1: Steve because he never wrote anything. Uh. Yeah, but Steve

1398
01:21:58,160 --> 01:21:59,400
Speaker 1: he when I was back in the day, when I

1399
01:21:59,439 --> 01:22:01,960
Speaker 1: was a director of research, he was He was an

1400
01:22:02,000 --> 01:22:04,280
Speaker 1: analyst who work for me and he he was the

1401
01:22:04,479 --> 01:22:08,519
Speaker 1: technical analysts. All the other analysts for fundamental analysts and

1402
01:22:08,640 --> 01:22:11,120
Speaker 1: I and Steve and I shared this large office space

1403
01:22:11,200 --> 01:22:13,719
Speaker 1: and so we were friends as well. But I noticed

1404
01:22:13,760 --> 01:22:17,000
Speaker 1: that all the analysts they were right, they were wrong,

1405
01:22:17,520 --> 01:22:20,599
Speaker 1: you know, lucky to break even, you know, over the total.

1406
01:22:20,680 --> 01:22:23,160
Speaker 1: But Steve was the only one who was right more

1407
01:22:23,160 --> 01:22:25,240
Speaker 1: than wrong. And this is back in the day. Coming

1408
01:22:25,280 --> 01:22:27,720
Speaker 1: out of graduate school for an economic street, I was

1409
01:22:27,840 --> 01:22:31,560
Speaker 1: very very skeptical of of of technical analysis. But I

1410
01:22:31,720 --> 01:22:33,720
Speaker 1: was open and open mind enough to talk to him

1411
01:22:33,720 --> 01:22:35,640
Speaker 1: about it and okay, tell me what you do, and

1412
01:22:36,160 --> 01:22:40,000
Speaker 1: and I do him. At first I understood why the

1413
01:22:40,600 --> 01:22:43,360
Speaker 1: premise of why technico analysis can work, And to put

1414
01:22:43,439 --> 01:22:46,760
Speaker 1: it simply, it's that when you think about it, everything

1415
01:22:46,880 --> 01:22:49,679
Speaker 1: that happens in the market, everything that's known about the market,

1416
01:22:50,000 --> 01:22:52,960
Speaker 1: every trade that's done in the market shows up in price.

1417
01:22:53,360 --> 01:22:56,400
Speaker 1: You can't hide it, right, so we're even insider things.

1418
01:22:56,479 --> 01:22:59,760
Speaker 1: It shows up in price. So there's a logic to it,

1419
01:22:59,800 --> 01:23:04,240
Speaker 1: this reason why price could be meaningful as a reflection

1420
01:23:04,320 --> 01:23:06,880
Speaker 1: of everything that's known about the market. So it's not

1421
01:23:07,160 --> 01:23:11,960
Speaker 1: black mumbo jumbo, it's it has a rationaley. That was

1422
01:23:12,080 --> 01:23:14,240
Speaker 1: one thing that I understood and learned from him, and

1423
01:23:14,320 --> 01:23:17,280
Speaker 1: then he showed me just basic you know, charred analysis

1424
01:23:17,400 --> 01:23:21,640
Speaker 1: and more appreciative risk management. So he really he was

1425
01:23:21,760 --> 01:23:24,280
Speaker 1: the one who kind of was an influence for me

1426
01:23:24,360 --> 01:23:27,760
Speaker 1: that switch over from fundamental technicals. That was where I

1427
01:23:27,880 --> 01:23:31,240
Speaker 1: kind of transition from losing to being that profitable. Um

1428
01:23:31,640 --> 01:23:36,439
Speaker 1: and I would consider him basically my mentor. M let's

1429
01:23:36,479 --> 01:23:38,920
Speaker 1: talk about books. What are some of your favorites and

1430
01:23:39,280 --> 01:23:43,800
Speaker 1: what are you reading lately? Okay, ironically, uh, top of

1431
01:23:43,880 --> 01:23:47,479
Speaker 1: my list here is the and you had Chaldini and uh,

1432
01:23:48,000 --> 01:23:51,320
Speaker 1: uh not that long. I listened a nice podcast with him.

1433
01:23:51,680 --> 01:23:55,000
Speaker 1: Uh Influence, the book Influence and Uh. I would say

1434
01:23:55,120 --> 01:23:58,439
Speaker 1: that Influence is not just a recommended book. I would

1435
01:23:58,479 --> 01:24:02,479
Speaker 1: say it is a a great book, a classic. UM.

1436
01:24:02,720 --> 01:24:05,080
Speaker 1: I would say, you know, and I've read a number

1437
01:24:05,080 --> 01:24:07,720
Speaker 1: of behavior economics books and his more of a psychology,

1438
01:24:07,880 --> 01:24:12,160
Speaker 1: but there's probably as much information in that book about

1439
01:24:12,479 --> 01:24:15,680
Speaker 1: useful information about human behavior as any volume I can

1440
01:24:15,760 --> 01:24:18,160
Speaker 1: think of. So UM, if you have any interest in

1441
01:24:18,200 --> 01:24:23,120
Speaker 1: psychology of human behavior, strong recommendation on Influence. UM. Then

1442
01:24:23,160 --> 01:24:25,639
Speaker 1: I've read two books more than its day side recently

1443
01:24:25,760 --> 01:24:30,280
Speaker 1: which I which are One is phenomenal called In the

1444
01:24:30,400 --> 01:24:34,560
Speaker 1: Kingdom of Ice, which is about the the first x

1445
01:24:35,040 --> 01:24:38,519
Speaker 1: US expedition in the nineteenth century to define the North

1446
01:24:38,640 --> 01:24:42,040
Speaker 1: Pole by boat where they didn't realize that you couldn't

1447
01:24:42,120 --> 01:24:44,640
Speaker 1: do that and they got trapped in one trapped in

1448
01:24:44,720 --> 01:24:49,880
Speaker 1: the ice. And it's an incredible narrative, it's a true story. UM.

1449
01:24:50,600 --> 01:24:53,920
Speaker 1: It is just a phenomenal read. It's literally one of

1450
01:24:53,960 --> 01:24:55,600
Speaker 1: the best books I've ever read. It's called In the

1451
01:24:55,720 --> 01:24:59,479
Speaker 1: Kingdom of Ice, and UM kind of another similar historic

1452
01:24:59,560 --> 01:25:02,160
Speaker 1: reventure or direct reaction, which I would recommend. It is

1453
01:25:02,200 --> 01:25:05,280
Speaker 1: called The River or Doubt, which is about Teddy Roosevelt

1454
01:25:05,360 --> 01:25:07,960
Speaker 1: after he lose this has been for a third term

1455
01:25:08,080 --> 01:25:14,479
Speaker 1: as president, actually goes off and co co Co has

1456
01:25:14,560 --> 01:25:21,840
Speaker 1: an expedition to explore previously uncharted the major river in

1457
01:25:21,880 --> 01:25:25,240
Speaker 1: the Amazon. And it's all again a true story and

1458
01:25:25,920 --> 01:25:30,760
Speaker 1: kind of you read that, it's amazing the grit of

1459
01:25:30,920 --> 01:25:34,960
Speaker 1: that of that man, and and you know what the

1460
01:25:35,080 --> 01:25:37,960
Speaker 1: risks he took and uh, and that whole story is

1461
01:25:38,000 --> 01:25:40,200
Speaker 1: a pretty incredible one as well. And it's something I

1462
01:25:40,280 --> 01:25:43,080
Speaker 1: mean nothing about and it's pretty amazing that it's true.

1463
01:25:43,960 --> 01:25:47,920
Speaker 1: So those are some good book recommendations. I literally gave

1464
01:25:48,080 --> 01:25:51,320
Speaker 1: a copy of Influence to my nephew who's in his

1465
01:25:51,400 --> 01:25:55,280
Speaker 1: early twenties and working as a banker. Yesterday so um

1466
01:25:55,840 --> 01:25:59,160
Speaker 1: today is I'm sorry Tuesday. I gave that to him.

1467
01:25:59,200 --> 01:26:02,400
Speaker 1: He was he was for the days and I uh,

1468
01:26:02,600 --> 01:26:05,519
Speaker 1: it's just a great book to to share with young people.

1469
01:26:06,400 --> 01:26:09,599
Speaker 1: The in the Kingdom of Ice looks fascinating. I'm going

1470
01:26:09,640 --> 01:26:13,840
Speaker 1: to pick that up. Have you ever It's a great read,

1471
01:26:14,160 --> 01:26:18,280
Speaker 1: A great read. Have you ever read Endurance about Shackleton? Yeah?

1472
01:26:18,360 --> 01:26:20,840
Speaker 1: And its funny you say that because because people as

1473
01:26:20,920 --> 01:26:22,680
Speaker 1: one of my favorite book is and Endurance is my

1474
01:26:22,760 --> 01:26:26,439
Speaker 1: favorite book. That's just unbelieving. It's an unbelievable book. It's

1475
01:26:26,600 --> 01:26:29,880
Speaker 1: it's just it's nothing like Yeah, but you know, this

1476
01:26:30,000 --> 01:26:32,320
Speaker 1: is the thing in the Kingdom in the Kingdom of

1477
01:26:32,360 --> 01:26:35,040
Speaker 1: the Ice is the first book I've read that stands

1478
01:26:35,439 --> 01:26:40,519
Speaker 1: can stand at the exact same level as Really it's

1479
01:26:40,600 --> 01:26:43,479
Speaker 1: that good. Yeah, wow, I'm in count count me in

1480
01:26:43,600 --> 01:26:46,760
Speaker 1: for that. Um, what sort of advice would you give

1481
01:26:46,920 --> 01:26:50,160
Speaker 1: to a recent college grad who was interested in a

1482
01:26:50,280 --> 01:26:56,120
Speaker 1: career as a trader? Oh? Sort of, if interest career

1483
01:26:56,120 --> 01:27:00,640
Speaker 1: as a trader? Um, there's well one I think of

1484
01:27:00,720 --> 01:27:03,639
Speaker 1: a quote that's the title of one of the chapters

1485
01:27:03,680 --> 01:27:05,800
Speaker 1: in this the latest book, which is don't quit your

1486
01:27:05,880 --> 01:27:09,000
Speaker 1: day job. So U. On the other hand, something like

1487
01:27:09,080 --> 01:27:12,920
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Newman went out to graduated college and went straight

1488
01:27:12,960 --> 01:27:16,080
Speaker 1: to training and became an amously successful So there are exceptions,

1489
01:27:16,160 --> 01:27:19,880
Speaker 1: but I think that's more of the long shot. And Uh,

1490
01:27:20,560 --> 01:27:24,960
Speaker 1: people's perception of what it's how difficult it is to

1491
01:27:25,000 --> 01:27:28,960
Speaker 1: succeed as a trader are misplaced. And it's particularly difficult

1492
01:27:29,000 --> 01:27:31,760
Speaker 1: if you don't have a real stake in you know

1493
01:27:32,240 --> 01:27:34,000
Speaker 1: to fall back on if you've got to you've got

1494
01:27:34,120 --> 01:27:35,840
Speaker 1: to pay your rent or something like that, and you're

1495
01:27:36,320 --> 01:27:38,880
Speaker 1: depending on making money. That's that's a real big dispantage.

1496
01:27:39,200 --> 01:27:41,160
Speaker 1: So so one piece of advice I would say is

1497
01:27:41,560 --> 01:27:44,599
Speaker 1: you don't really get serious about a training career until

1498
01:27:44,640 --> 01:27:46,720
Speaker 1: you have enough money to be comfortable to take every

1499
01:27:46,840 --> 01:27:50,000
Speaker 1: basic pences and and be able to give it a chance. Uh.

1500
01:27:51,040 --> 01:27:54,240
Speaker 1: Otherwise it is difficult enough and you're just putting the

1501
01:27:54,360 --> 01:27:56,960
Speaker 1: arts too much against you by trying to do it.

1502
01:27:57,439 --> 01:28:01,960
Speaker 1: At the same time, you have monetary responsibilities that can't

1503
01:28:02,000 --> 01:28:05,160
Speaker 1: be met unless you're making money. And our final question,

1504
01:28:05,520 --> 01:28:08,240
Speaker 1: what do you know about the world of trading today

1505
01:28:08,880 --> 01:28:11,479
Speaker 1: that you wish you knew thirty or forty years ago

1506
01:28:11,600 --> 01:28:15,800
Speaker 1: when you were first getting started in this field. A

1507
01:28:15,880 --> 01:28:21,360
Speaker 1: couple Well, the most important thing probably is that of everything,

1508
01:28:21,520 --> 01:28:25,600
Speaker 1: risk management is the most important thing, and that was

1509
01:28:25,640 --> 01:28:28,800
Speaker 1: certainly something I had didn't understand at all. It's not

1510
01:28:28,960 --> 01:28:31,200
Speaker 1: an add on, it's not something that you'll get to.

1511
01:28:32,000 --> 01:28:34,840
Speaker 1: It's if you don't have some sort of and it

1512
01:28:34,920 --> 01:28:36,839
Speaker 1: doesn't have to be difficult, doesn't have to be complex,

1513
01:28:37,200 --> 01:28:40,120
Speaker 1: but if you don't have rigorous risk management, the odds

1514
01:28:40,160 --> 01:28:44,240
Speaker 1: of succeeding are very low. So that's something I fully

1515
01:28:44,800 --> 01:28:47,600
Speaker 1: that's burned into my bones at this point. But I

1516
01:28:47,680 --> 01:28:49,800
Speaker 1: didn't understand it all when I got in. And I

1517
01:28:49,840 --> 01:28:53,240
Speaker 1: guess the other thing is is that no matter how

1518
01:28:53,600 --> 01:28:57,200
Speaker 1: good you do at any point in time, don't get complacent.

1519
01:28:57,400 --> 01:28:59,680
Speaker 1: The market at least has a way of surprising you.

1520
01:29:00,320 --> 01:29:02,920
Speaker 1: So I've kind of learned at this point if I'm

1521
01:29:02,960 --> 01:29:05,320
Speaker 1: doing really well, I'm probably gonna have a lousy period

1522
01:29:05,400 --> 01:29:08,680
Speaker 1: coming up. But you know, you got to learn to

1523
01:29:09,240 --> 01:29:12,200
Speaker 1: not assume that you've discovered it because you never do. Uh.

1524
01:29:12,600 --> 01:29:15,639
Speaker 1: It's always an ongoing thing. And and like I said,

1525
01:29:15,680 --> 01:29:19,720
Speaker 1: the market will always surprise you quite quite fascinating. Jack.

1526
01:29:19,800 --> 01:29:21,960
Speaker 1: Thank you for being so generous with your time. We

1527
01:29:22,200 --> 01:29:27,000
Speaker 1: have been speaking with Jack Schweger, author of about eight books,

1528
01:29:27,080 --> 01:29:31,000
Speaker 1: most recently Unknown Market Wizards, the Best Traders You've Never

1529
01:29:31,080 --> 01:29:34,400
Speaker 1: Heard of. If you enjoyed this conversation, well be sure

1530
01:29:34,439 --> 01:29:38,120
Speaker 1: and check out any of our previous almost four hundred

1531
01:29:38,280 --> 01:29:43,839
Speaker 1: prior discussions. You can find those at iTunes, Spotify, wherever

1532
01:29:44,040 --> 01:29:48,200
Speaker 1: you pick up your favorite podcast from. We love your comments,

1533
01:29:48,240 --> 01:29:52,360
Speaker 1: feedback and suggestions right to us at M I B

1534
01:29:52,600 --> 01:29:56,680
Speaker 1: Podcast at Bloomberg dot net. You can sign up from

1535
01:29:56,720 --> 01:30:00,040
Speaker 1: my daily reads at ridlts dot com. Check out my

1536
01:30:00,160 --> 01:30:04,760
Speaker 1: weekly column on Bloomberg dot com slash Opinion. Follow me

1537
01:30:04,840 --> 01:30:08,200
Speaker 1: on Twitter at Ritholtz. I would be remiss if I

1538
01:30:08,280 --> 01:30:12,080
Speaker 1: did not thank the crack team that helps these conversations

1539
01:30:12,280 --> 01:30:16,800
Speaker 1: come together so nicely each week. Charlie Volmer and Tim

1540
01:30:16,880 --> 01:30:22,959
Speaker 1: Harrow are my audio engineers because this particular podcast required

1541
01:30:23,040 --> 01:30:27,280
Speaker 1: two engineers. Paris Wald is my producer. Uh Tico val

1542
01:30:27,320 --> 01:30:30,040
Speaker 1: Bron is our project manager. Michael Batnick is my head

1543
01:30:30,080 --> 01:30:34,280
Speaker 1: of research. I'm Barry Hults. You're listening to Masters in

1544
01:30:34,360 --> 01:30:36,200
Speaker 1: Business on Bloomberg Radio.