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Speaker 1: It's the favorite podcast presented by FanDuel. It's NFL playoff time,

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Speaker 1: Gambling Help dot org in Maryland one eight seven seven

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Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four

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Speaker 1: six seven three six nine in New York, one five

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Speaker 1: to two four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to The Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are heading into Super wild Card Weekend, folks, and

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Speaker 1: as always for every episode, I've got my bff, my companion,

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Speaker 1: Michael Padre, my co host Professional Better Simon Hunter. Hello,

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Speaker 1: saw him in, Hello, Chad, Happy, wild Card Weekend, Brother,

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Speaker 1: wild Card Weekend. Man. It would surprise everybody to know

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Speaker 1: that before we came on the air, you and I

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Speaker 1: we're having a very deep discussion about whether or not

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Speaker 1: Shakespeare wasn't an amalgamation of people, if Homer was real,

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Speaker 1: or if somebody was ghost writing him. That's what we

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Speaker 1: talked about on what used to be known as America's

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Speaker 1: most literate gambling podcast. Now we're just sucking the gins

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Speaker 1: and wise guys. That's right, that's it. That's all we are.

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Speaker 1: We're not we're not talking conspiracy about big Foot or

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Speaker 1: the lizard people. We're talking to Shakespeare and Homer. That's right.

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Speaker 1: We go deep. I have written seven books for bestsellers whatever.

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Speaker 1: Chad Milman wrote a book whatever the third grade level.

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Speaker 1: So we're the perfect combo together. We are totally average. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's like a Buddy comedy from the nineteen eighties. So

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Speaker 1: a lot of line moves, a lot of news with

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Speaker 1: the quarterbacks, whether it be Skylar Thompson. We're not getting

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Speaker 1: clarity on that, which we didn't have recorded the other day.

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Speaker 1: We're getting a little bit more clarity on the mar

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Speaker 1: Jackson Tyler Huntley based on who've been practicing and what

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Speaker 1: Jim Harbaugh was saying. We're going to break down that

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Speaker 1: the Jags line has moved again since we recorded. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot to break down. Reminder, we went Ravens Foxhole

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Speaker 1: at six and a half. That line is now at

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Speaker 1: eight and a half. We went Simon says Jags one

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Speaker 1: and a half. That is now at two and a half,

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Speaker 1: Jacks plus two and a half. Exact decision was Bucks

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Speaker 1: two and a half and remained to two and a half.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to anything, I do want to ask

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Speaker 1: you one question, because you know we get a lot

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Speaker 1: of questions in the chat now that we're doing this

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Speaker 1: live on AMP and we're gonna get the sharp calls

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Speaker 1: and and the line moves and how we're adusting stuff.

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Speaker 1: But in the chat, people have asked, how do you

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Speaker 1: change the inputs for your models as we get to

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Speaker 1: the playoffs, because you mentioned on the show the other

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Speaker 1: day that betting in the playoffs and making numbers in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs it's just different than it is during the

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Speaker 1: regular season. Fewer games, ten fewer games this week than

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Speaker 1: in the previous week. So can you explain to people

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Speaker 1: how you change your inputs. Yeah, it's changing the sense that, um,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna go as big probably with my bets

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Speaker 1: in the week where it's like you have books, you're

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Speaker 1: gonna take more money in the playoffs. It's just it's

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Speaker 1: just much easier to get money down when you want

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Speaker 1: to get money down, especially where what is it eight

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Speaker 1: percent of the time seventy percent the time at least

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Speaker 1: in my career in the playoffs and always on almost

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Speaker 1: almost always on the side of the book needs. It's

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Speaker 1: just very rare that I'm with the book. But like

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Speaker 1: people know, this week, there's a couple of public favorites.

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Speaker 1: I really like UM, and that's just historically they're profitable

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Speaker 1: in the wild card weekend. So every round I change

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Speaker 1: as well. Style like is the rounds go along, I'm

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Speaker 1: more likely to bet just home teams in general and

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Speaker 1: dogs where it's like, if it's a home dog in

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Speaker 1: the next couple of rounds, it's people are gonna know.

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Speaker 1: It's almost guarantee. I can't help myself because that model

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Speaker 1: is always gonna benefit that where home field might not

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Speaker 1: matter as much during the regular season, but playoffs the

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Speaker 1: day the data bears it out like that the one seeds,

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Speaker 1: there's a reason math actically they make the Super Bowl

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Speaker 1: the most. It's like they literally played two home games

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Speaker 1: and they get a bye week in the first round,

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Speaker 1: so we had to update that all of your playoffs

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Speaker 1: stuff just because they got rid of the buyer for

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Speaker 1: the two seats. So yeah, for me betting UM, I

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Speaker 1: would say it's all about situational two where like that

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Speaker 1: Ravens number. I mean, if I guarantee knew it was

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Speaker 1: gonna be hunted, I'd be all in on this game.

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Speaker 1: Like I just love everything about it. I even love

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Speaker 1: the line movement, like as much as people get scared

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Speaker 1: off that stuff. It's something we'll talk about. I love it.

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Speaker 1: It's just like, all right, more value. I kind of

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Speaker 1: already factored in no more was gonna play, but I

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Speaker 1: did think in the back of my mind all the

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Speaker 1: smart people we had listened to said little I was

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Speaker 1: gonna be back by now. So that's one of those

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Speaker 1: where it's like, yeah, playoffs. I tried to do as

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Speaker 1: much like trying not to go too crazy betting overboard

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Speaker 1: early in the week, but yeah, if it's a certain game,

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Speaker 1: I'll bet you know, it can end up being six figures.

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Speaker 1: No problem. On a game where it's just like, okay,

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Speaker 1: I like this position, like the number, public keeps betting

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Speaker 1: the other way and whatever it is, and the line

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Speaker 1: keeps moving towards what I like, I'll just keep buying

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Speaker 1: it on those sides. But to me, my my biggest

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Speaker 1: betting weeks will always be Week one. Easy to get

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Speaker 1: the money down all through the summer all it's just

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Speaker 1: easy to get a lot of money down there, and

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Speaker 1: then Super Bowl. Super Bowl. They don't care anyone any

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Speaker 1: pro at any book you'll walk into, they will take

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Speaker 1: any type of bet you want to Super Bowl, they

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Speaker 1: might limit it, like write those prop bets. We all

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Speaker 1: know that. But yeah, for money wise, the biggest weeks

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Speaker 1: for me are always gonna be Week one and always

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Speaker 1: be the Super Bowl. It's just the easiest time to

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Speaker 1: get money down. If that's what people are wondering. Where

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Speaker 1: my my biggest bets usually coming at. When you're betting.

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Speaker 1: Let's say, let's take the Ravens and the Jacks, for example,

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Speaker 1: rate let's move from six and a half to eight

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Speaker 1: and a half. We both bet it earlier in the

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Speaker 1: week at six and a half. The Jags moved from

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Speaker 1: one and a half. It was that two and a half,

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Speaker 1: moved down back to one and got to one and

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Speaker 1: a half. We betted at one and a half. Now

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Speaker 1: with the two and a half, I'm assuming you bet

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Speaker 1: it again. I bet it again. Do you bet the

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Speaker 1: same number of units when the nut when it goes up?

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Speaker 1: Or do you bet more or do you bet less

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Speaker 1: same amount? But it comes Saturday, I might just load

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Speaker 1: up on it. But like right now, yeah, it's just

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Speaker 1: it's not I'm gonna call it feelers, So that's kind

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Speaker 1: of what it is. It's just like, alright, the number

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Speaker 1: moved against me, let me just get more down on

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Speaker 1: it before it drops down in case the pros coming

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Speaker 1: on the other side. It's one of those where it's

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Speaker 1: just a little bit of the game of there's always

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Speaker 1: gonna be professionals on the other side. We just talked

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Speaker 1: about their six games, so we're like, we're about to

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Speaker 1: do sharp calls. It's all gonna be all over the place.

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Speaker 1: It's very rare where there's gonna be games we all

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Speaker 1: align on um just because it's the season of opinions.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I was gonna say, as Chatty wants to

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Speaker 1: do at the end of our show, we can run

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Speaker 1: through what we think are Super Bowl matchups and all

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Speaker 1: that stuff will be UM. But that's what this time

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Speaker 1: of year is. It's just forming opinions. And I always

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Speaker 1: joke with people it's very rare that it goes like

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Speaker 1: we all think, right, Eagles chief super Bowl, both one

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Speaker 1: seeds making it. Last year it was both four seeds.

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Speaker 1: I mean it was the Rams versus Bengals. I mean,

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Speaker 1: tends to get a little weird here NFL. Mathematically it

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Speaker 1: just works out where if you're gonna make a bet

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Speaker 1: the one seed, the math always says the back outside

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Speaker 1: just because they literally just won a game this weekend

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Speaker 1: and they didn't play, so that right there is a

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Speaker 1: huge advantage where every team here, like we're about to

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Speaker 1: talk about, it's another week and it's another chance to lose.

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Speaker 1: That's why the numbers are always built into that where

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Speaker 1: you know, I feel like in most people minds right now,

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Speaker 1: the four Niners and the Bills are the two teams

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Speaker 1: most people are gonna be picking right now. They're just

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Speaker 1: a hot team. So um, it's it's no surprise that

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Speaker 1: the betting markets kind of shifted that way, even though

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs are still the favorite overall. All right, well

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Speaker 1: let's talk about it. Let's get to shark calls. Hello,

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Speaker 1: who's there? I'm talking a lot of dirt throwing on

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Speaker 1: my name? No, I mean I didn't have a lot

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Speaker 1: of guys talking ship to me this week. They hated

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Speaker 1: my take with the Ravens. They they were like, why

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Speaker 1: are you guys taking that number when you don't know

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Speaker 1: what the quarterback situation was? And my view was, I

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Speaker 1: feel like the books hung that number knowing more in

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Speaker 1: front than me. I thought they hung in thinking. Okay, Lamar.

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Speaker 1: Every team doctor said it was a three to six

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Speaker 1: week injury. I believe this is technically week six or

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Speaker 1: week seven for this injury, so we assumed Lamar would

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Speaker 1: be back. And with Lamar back, that's an amazing number,

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Speaker 1: especially where Joe Burrow he's pretty much torn up every defense.

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Speaker 1: People look historically, the Ravens actually played pretty well against him.

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Speaker 1: Um just not even this year. But since he's coming

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Speaker 1: to the the league, so um, I nothing's gonna change for me.

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Speaker 1: But it was interesting hearing that there are so many

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Speaker 1: pros that did come in on the sixth of the

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Speaker 1: Bengals did coming on six and a half, did throw

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Speaker 1: them in a bunch of teasers, which we talked last year.

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Speaker 1: I thought the Ravens will cover this number. I just

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Speaker 1: don't think they'll win. Made perfect sense people teasing them down.

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Speaker 1: I still think it's not terrible if you want to

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Speaker 1: do it right, if it's eight and a half, or

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Speaker 1: do you want a six point teaser that's two and

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Speaker 1: a half, which we talk all the time. That's a

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Speaker 1: key number if you get under the three. So still

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Speaker 1: just it just reeks to me, everything about this line reeks.

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Speaker 1: I still think the bookmakers know what they're doing here.

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Speaker 1: Something something's fishy, something's off of this line. Um, so

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Speaker 1: that's nothing we're gonna talk about. Where I was shocked

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Speaker 1: to hear so many pros I love this Bengals line

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Speaker 1: where I just I don't know. I just as soon

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Speaker 1: as I saw this one open, it really it really

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Speaker 1: jumped out. So, uh, no shock on that one. The

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Speaker 1: one we're going against for sure against the pros is

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Speaker 1: they like the Seahawks. Um all the trends. There's a

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Speaker 1: bunch of stuff that backs it teams that have gotten

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Speaker 1: swept in the regular season and you're seeing the team

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs that favor of the Seahawks. Um, there's

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Speaker 1: a bunch of trends against rookie quarterbacks making their first

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Speaker 1: start in the playoffs, A t s quarterbacks, Um, what

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Speaker 1: is it coming off five straight wins heading into the playoffs?

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Speaker 1: A ts? Not good? Tons of trends, So I know

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Speaker 1: tons of trend better. So that's literally what they do.

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Speaker 1: They just bet trends. They're not like me that it's

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Speaker 1: just all day in a computer and making calls. They

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Speaker 1: literally will run through their trends on Monday and Tuesday

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Speaker 1: and they'll be like, Okay, this is what the trends

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Speaker 1: say to do, and this is we'll do it because

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Speaker 1: the playoffs are pretty simple. It's not you can go

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Speaker 1: back through the history tends to repeat itself to his

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Speaker 1: three in the playoffs, and that's where if you look

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Speaker 1: to the day of the books, they always have an

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Speaker 1: advantage of the public in the playoffs because of public perception.

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Speaker 1: So of course it's it's very chocolate me too. Back

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Speaker 1: to fort Nins, I knew the guys would be on

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Speaker 1: their side. I'm shocked that enough money came in the

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Speaker 1: books moved it to nine and a half because that's

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Speaker 1: a key number that they moved it off the tent,

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Speaker 1: so that that definitely made me pause. But honestly, none

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Speaker 1: of my picks change after all the sharp calls. That

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Speaker 1: was one though, that was more more obvious. I knew

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Speaker 1: that we were on the public side, and we talked

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Speaker 1: about that one shot. I feel like that's why I

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Speaker 1: thought you'd probably be on the Seahawks. Um. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: they're all they're all pretty much like that Sehall's side. Um.

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Speaker 1: That one we all lined up on was that Bills line.

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Speaker 1: We got a little lucky and dropped the nine and

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Speaker 1: a half off, like not just fake bad news, but

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Speaker 1: people just speculating, like speculating that two would be back. Um,

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Speaker 1: people moved that number nine and a half, which was

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Speaker 1: an absolute gift if you're betting the Bills. UM call

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Speaker 1: it the news whatever he said. It was like five

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Speaker 1: minutes after Schef they had given it out, putting the

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Speaker 1: action app eleven and I think not even twenty minutes

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Speaker 1: after that, it was up to thirteen twelve and a

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Speaker 1: half in most books. Now it's settled in the thirteen

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Speaker 1: thirteen and a half of the Bills. I told you

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Speaker 1: I made it that number with with this kid at

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Speaker 1: the backup. That's the number I made it. Now you're

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Speaker 1: telling me they're starting tackles might be out or their

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Speaker 1: starting guard as well, it might be out. I dude,

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Speaker 1: this might close for me like fifteen sixteen. Like this

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Speaker 1: number might just keep on moving because not only do

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Speaker 1: you have an inexperienced quarterback, now you're taking away an

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Speaker 1: offensive line. And I get I Von Miller is a

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Speaker 1: huge deal to this Bill's defense. Their weakness is kind

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Speaker 1: of against the run, like they're great at pass rushing.

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Speaker 1: So to me, I I do get why this is

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Speaker 1: the biggest line ever UM in football. But it was interesting,

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Speaker 1: interesting here in the pros coming so heavy on the bills.

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Speaker 1: I saw some sharp groups come on the other side.

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Speaker 1: They thought, okay, this to a news sounds good, that

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Speaker 1: too would be back. This week's pure speculation. They got caught,

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Speaker 1: but I think most of them were able to buy

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Speaker 1: other positions. That's why that not to me. That's why

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Speaker 1: that number moved so heavily. Was anyone pro that had

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Speaker 1: come in on Miami bought out the position. That's why

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Speaker 1: it was just a double of public pros hit in

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Speaker 1: the same side and guys by other position. So it's

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Speaker 1: gonna be scary because Miami is gonna be the biggest

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Speaker 1: need of the books this week. Um but it's nice

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Speaker 1: to know that the pro's line up with us on

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Speaker 1: a chalky favorite. And I believe our our guy Evan

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Speaker 1: who you just put a lot of the trends um dogs,

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Speaker 1: I mean favorites of ten or more at home since

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen and wild Card round five and one. I

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Speaker 1: guess it's spread, so it is good to take some

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Speaker 1: of the big chalk favorites in the wild card round. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it feels like this is a we've been seeing as

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Speaker 1: more and more there are just more blowouts in this round. Um, so,

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Speaker 1: I think it's interesting that we're talking about the Bills.

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Speaker 1: You and I talked about it the other day. We

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Speaker 1: texted like that line was sitting at twelve and a half.

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Speaker 1: I still felt good about it at twelve and a half.

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Speaker 1: I bet it at twelve and a half, I still

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Speaker 1: feel good about it. I think they might beat them

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Speaker 1: by thirty. You know, then we make our big balls.

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Speaker 1: I feel like it's big balls for us to take

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Speaker 1: a third team point favorite here, huge balls for us

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Speaker 1: to take a thirteen point favorite. Well, let's I think

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Speaker 1: I think it may end up being that. I think

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Speaker 1: it's the because it's making mer but I'm not gonna

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Speaker 1: lie to you. Like I just hit it again at

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Speaker 1: thirteen because don't worry about going on thirteen a half,

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Speaker 1: And I was just like, man, this is a massive favorite.

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Speaker 1: Like Josh Allen has red red zone turnovers. This could

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Speaker 1: be our Achilles heel here. But I just keep thinking

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Speaker 1: about this Bill's team not I don't. I hate saying

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Speaker 1: team at Destiny, but they got the vibes with their

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Speaker 1: fans of like this is setting up really nice for

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Speaker 1: them in every way. I mean, who knows what the

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Speaker 1: atmosphere is gonna be like there, but you can already

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Speaker 1: I think we all can agree it's going to be

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Speaker 1: absolutely mental at Orchard Park. And this is a rookie quarterback.

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Speaker 1: Like I can't get over the fact that this kid

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Speaker 1: is literally just being thrown to the wolves here, uh,

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Speaker 1: with no offensive line either. It's just man, Miami is

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Speaker 1: just in a terrible spot. Well, look, there's so that

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Speaker 1: stat that rookie quarterbacks going against veteran quarterbacks in the

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Speaker 1: first last start fourteen and thirty five against spread. I

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Speaker 1: forgot when that year what it goes back to it? It

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Speaker 1: It might be I want to say, it's uh, oh two,

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Speaker 1: but could be oh three using bet labs, right, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's using bad laughs. So it's a twenty year labs cut. Um.

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Speaker 1: So look, let's just let's just do it. Big balls

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Speaker 1: better the week Buffalo Bills nearly two touchdown favorites. We're

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Speaker 1: going for it. We hate it, we're going for it.

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Speaker 1: Alert here. Josh Allen looks through and through every years,

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Speaker 1: but there's last and there we gonna excuse me, cuts down.

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Speaker 1: How many quarterbacks have you ever seen? Brutle anyone? There's

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Speaker 1: no fear, No one's still going demands to do something

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Speaker 1: about this album rages and I am making a louder

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Speaker 1: and louder. Yeah, like I'm been at all straight. This

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Speaker 1: isn't one of the like this one of the games.

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Speaker 1: I threw in a teaser, But if you're still scared

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Speaker 1: of that number, you can tease it under the seven.

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Speaker 1: Still you can still do that. I get it, um,

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Speaker 1: but I feel like Chad just nailed it. Just historically,

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Speaker 1: the trends everything backs. You just take this number. It's

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Speaker 1: the quarterback position. That's what we talked all the time

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs. The quarterback can overcome even bad coaching.

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Speaker 1: And the playoffs where we saw that Aaron Rodgers. I

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Speaker 1: don't want to show Zach Taylor too much, but Joe

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Speaker 1: Burrows talent so out of this world. I feel like

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Speaker 1: he's been carrying Zach Taylor for a while. It to me,

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Speaker 1: it's just one of those wearing the playoffs. I rarely

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Speaker 1: rare to get these kind of opportunities because it's could

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Speaker 1: have been my homes right if they didn't get the

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Speaker 1: one seat, if the Bills had gotten in, and what

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Speaker 1: what would this line be? An arrowhead Miami going there

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Speaker 1: with this kid? It probably would be fourteen. So I

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Speaker 1: do think this line is still a little under value

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Speaker 1: because I really do neutral field Bills Chiefs. That's a

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Speaker 1: pick or might even be minus one towards the Bills.

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Speaker 1: So um, to me, I still think you're getting great

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Speaker 1: value on this Bills team. You mentioned the Seahawks and Niners.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting to me there's two games that I haven't

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Speaker 1: met yet, the Giants and the Vikings and the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: and the Niners. Because everything in my body says bet

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Speaker 1: the Niners at nine and a half. But there's something,

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Speaker 1: there's something that is holding me back. Yeah, it's like

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Speaker 1: it's the situation, the fact that it's going to be

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Speaker 1: shitty weather. It's a rookie quarterback against a veteran quarterback

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Speaker 1: even though its first first time in the class for both.

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Speaker 1: The Seahawks are so undervalued, to see how the Flanders

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Speaker 1: are so overvalued. Everything about this to me says I

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Speaker 1: think I'm just gonna stay away. You can't. It's the playoffs. No,

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Speaker 1: that's fair, there's no I see no advantage either way. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's just tough where I do like I just gotta

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Speaker 1: stay a staunched in my belief that the league has

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Speaker 1: figured out gino. Uh, if you just look at his

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Speaker 1: numbers towards the tail end of the season, it was bad.

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Speaker 1: You look at the three quarterbacks he beat in this

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Speaker 1: last half of the season, it was John Willford, Baker Mayfield,

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Speaker 1: and then whoever the backup was to Arizona. So the

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Speaker 1: geno that's my biggest thing here, where it's like, if

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Speaker 1: if he was playing really well coming into this, it

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Speaker 1: would be a no brainer. Because it's literally like what

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Speaker 1: Chad's talking about, which is given a weird feeling of

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Speaker 1: it's a divisional, it's the third time they've seen each other.

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Speaker 1: They've already been swept, which is like all the math

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Speaker 1: backs out bank backing the team that just got swept.

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Speaker 1: Now they play each other in the playoffs. Um, but

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Speaker 1: it's just that that geno factor where it's like Brock Purdy,

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Speaker 1: I think he's gonna get caught. Like I mean, we

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Speaker 1: haven't given our super predictions here. I do think he's

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Speaker 1: eventually gonna get caught. It's just it's just it's a

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Speaker 1: lot to put on this kid's shoulders. I mean, in

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Speaker 1: these games I talked about, if you go back and look,

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Speaker 1: he's been not only flawless. He's just running a really

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Speaker 1: smooth offense. Like guys in his face, he always makes

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Speaker 1: the right read. It's just been insane, especially when I

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Speaker 1: talked to like especially college pros who bet this kid,

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Speaker 1: and like, I know, no, I honestly knew nothing really

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Speaker 1: about him there. They don't get it. They're like, dude,

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Speaker 1: if you watched him in college, he had talent, but

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Speaker 1: this is like out of body experience right now for

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Speaker 1: this kid. So in this matchup where he has all

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Speaker 1: the confidence in the world, they're at home, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: take it, especially now it's under ten. I'm I'm still

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Speaker 1: gonna back it. But um, obviously, like you I just said,

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Speaker 1: it's it's never a good feeling. I know. It's not

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Speaker 1: just one or two pros. It's a lot of pros

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Speaker 1: that are back in the Seahawks in this spot. They

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Speaker 1: liked this position. But I still think this is the

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Speaker 1: move here for me with a four in ire So

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Speaker 1: I'll be on four ours first half, I'll be on

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Speaker 1: fours first game, all game. It's just it's just a

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Speaker 1: spot I'd like to take them. Maybe next week I'll

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Speaker 1: go against it, right because everyone in the world's me

408
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Speaker 1: on them again against the Vikings and that or Giants

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Speaker 1: whoever they play Tampa Dallas UM, that will be the

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Speaker 1: time I'll go against them. But in this spot against

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks team that they've already climbed them outain they

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Speaker 1: won their super Bowl last week in overtime making the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: I just good let down spot for them against the

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Speaker 1: team that's just better in every aspect. H Stuckey and

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Speaker 1: Colin Wilson Big Bets on campus podcast Covent College Sports.

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Speaker 1: They do our college football. They loved brock Purty at

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Speaker 1: Iowa State as long as was as long as it

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Speaker 1: was in October, called it bro October. Anytime it was

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Speaker 1: in October. They didn't like brock Purty um crazy ats

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Speaker 1: record in October or something. He just lit it up

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Speaker 1: in October. Like that's every year when I was saying,

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Speaker 1: started sort of trending upward, and you know, would have

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Speaker 1: an upset, would play the game close in the Big twelve,

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Speaker 1: and then come to November they'd fade like they always do.

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Speaker 1: Because it's Dietwa State. It's not like a big time program.

426
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 1: But the Jacks opened to two and a half. We're

427
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 1: plus two and a half. Got that down to one

428
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:24,560
Speaker 1: and a half. H bounce back up? Why do you

429
00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 1: think it bounced back up? I know why I still

430
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 1: love the Jags and betted again at two and a half.

431
00:21:30,280 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 1: Why do you still love the Jacks. I truly believe

432
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 1: it bounced back up because of Joey Bosa news. He

433
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:37,639
Speaker 1: got full practice in so he is good to go.

434
00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,880
Speaker 1: I think, to me, Joey Bosa, even if he's coming

435
00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:42,640
Speaker 1: off an injury this season, he's still to me worth

436
00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:45,880
Speaker 1: half a point, like it's he is an absolute game

437
00:21:45,920 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 1: record and they're down. I wouldn't say that one of

438
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: the best left out was on football Jaguars there, they've

439
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:54,760
Speaker 1: got issues on their own line like they've They've had

440
00:21:55,119 --> 00:21:57,920
Speaker 1: injuries this year. So the Joey Bosa back, he's full

441
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:01,440
Speaker 1: on practicing this week. It's just it's bad. Um. Mike

442
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,520
Speaker 1: Williams says still not practicing, So I'll take that that's

443
00:22:03,520 --> 00:22:07,680
Speaker 1: a bonus. Um. I'm shocked that the pros like the

444
00:22:07,760 --> 00:22:09,679
Speaker 1: Chargers here so much. It just feels like such a

445
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:12,680
Speaker 1: public darling. I don't know. I'm not a sucker bet,

446
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:17,840
Speaker 1: but it's it does. It feels like a sucker bet. Yeah, Simon,

447
00:22:18,680 --> 00:22:24,360
Speaker 1: we've faded the Chargers as favorites all season long. We're

448
00:22:24,400 --> 00:22:28,520
Speaker 1: fading the Chargers as favorites on the road in a

449
00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:32,879
Speaker 1: coaching mismatch, you know, Like I am, I am just

450
00:22:33,000 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 1: not a believer that Brandon Staley is widely like a fox.

451
00:22:38,880 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 1: I think he's a wild card who sometimes makes incredibly

452
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:48,000
Speaker 1: irresponsible decisions. And I think we saw it this past

453
00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:51,200
Speaker 1: week with how we used the roster and so um,

454
00:22:52,160 --> 00:22:57,040
Speaker 1: I like, I like the Jags at home with Doug Peterson.

455
00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:01,280
Speaker 1: It makes no sense to me. Yeah, And it's just

456
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:03,960
Speaker 1: funny talking like this, just the fact that I got

457
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:05,919
Speaker 1: I know, two really smart groups that came in on

458
00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,040
Speaker 1: the Jag the Charges, I should say, at one, and

459
00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:12,160
Speaker 1: their whole view of it was, yeah, I could see

460
00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,520
Speaker 1: the Jaguars covering this number. But Herbert's not losing this

461
00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:16,640
Speaker 1: game like they got him winning a really close battle.

462
00:23:17,040 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 1: Their model makes it too, I make it a pick.

463
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 1: So like to me, yeah, the value right now is

464
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 1: screaming on the Chargers, but I saw where they're coming from.

465
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:28,480
Speaker 1: If you go back and look through her, yeah, sorry

466
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: on the Jacks if you if you if you get

467
00:23:30,040 --> 00:23:31,760
Speaker 1: where I get where they're coming from. Like Herbert plays

468
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,440
Speaker 1: close games, and those close games he tends to win them.

469
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:37,960
Speaker 1: And Trevor Lawrence on their side, we've seen him play

470
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,440
Speaker 1: well this year, but if you go back and look

471
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: at the teams he did beat, there was always a

472
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:46,320
Speaker 1: reason for that, either between injuries or whatever it was. Um.

473
00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,080
Speaker 1: I gets they have so many question marks around Lawrence,

474
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,240
Speaker 1: but I feel like what you're just talking about what

475
00:23:51,240 --> 00:23:53,639
Speaker 1: they keep overlooking, which is the coaching discrepancy. And this

476
00:23:53,720 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: is just major. Like Doug, he is such a weapon

477
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,199
Speaker 1: in the playoffs, the fact that he's been through it

478
00:23:59,240 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 1: and he knows exactly we had to handle these kind

479
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,040
Speaker 1: of moments. The guy is a rookie coach in the playoffs.

480
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 1: He's never been a coach head coach in the playoffs.

481
00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,119
Speaker 1: That's a big deal, eh, S wise, I don't know

482
00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:11,320
Speaker 1: the exact data on it, but I know there's gonna

483
00:24:11,320 --> 00:24:13,840
Speaker 1: a descriptions there there has. It has to be tough

484
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 1: to be a first time head coach. Um. But to me,

485
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:22,479
Speaker 1: I I'm hoping against the three, but I would be

486
00:24:22,560 --> 00:24:25,840
Speaker 1: shocked if it gets too three. Me. That's an easy

487
00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:27,959
Speaker 1: position in middle for most of these pros. Like if

488
00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:31,120
Speaker 1: you got the one on the Chargers, it's crossed two,

489
00:24:31,119 --> 00:24:32,720
Speaker 1: a key number, two and a half a key number.

490
00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: Now it's hit three. That's crazy. So we'll see you

491
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:38,199
Speaker 1: if it does hit three, that I will not glad you.

492
00:24:38,200 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: I'd be a little terrified if we If we're sitting

493
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 1: here Saturday night, it's just sitting on three. That means

494
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 1: the books really need the Jaguars, which would be a

495
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 1: little scary, just because you know, it's it's not ideal

496
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: when they're they're letting guys middle them moving that number

497
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: to such a key number. But I I wasn't surprised

498
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:57,680
Speaker 1: that more guys weren't of the Jaguars. But it was

499
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,439
Speaker 1: a sense that every pro I know for them parties

500
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,600
Speaker 1: on the Buccaneers. I thought would be the same thing here,

501
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: like a good home dog, a good spot with a

502
00:25:05,040 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 1: good coach. Um, this was a good spot to back

503
00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: this Jaguars team. So in my leaking confidence a little

504
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:13,080
Speaker 1: probably a little bit because it's like playoff time and

505
00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:14,679
Speaker 1: there's just a lot of noise in my head. But

506
00:25:15,440 --> 00:25:17,200
Speaker 1: this Jaguars team, I just never had a doubt I'd

507
00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:19,640
Speaker 1: be taking them. Um, the only way I would take

508
00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:22,600
Speaker 1: the Chargers have been flipped and the Jaguars remind us

509
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:24,959
Speaker 1: one favorites and that just neveryone's gonna be that way.

510
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: The public is always gonna like the Chargers are always

511
00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: gonna have an affinity for Herbert. Um, it's just s

512
00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:34,600
Speaker 1: h we're getting good value. We have to take the value.

513
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,480
Speaker 1: So two and a half. I'll take that every time.

514
00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:43,640
Speaker 1: Like I said, it just seems nonsensical to me. The

515
00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:47,080
Speaker 1: wise guys seem to be buying into a narrative that

516
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:50,520
Speaker 1: Justin Herbert is the second coming of the next great

517
00:25:50,600 --> 00:25:54,600
Speaker 1: quarterback and with Keenan Allen, they are a different team.

518
00:25:54,720 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 1: We saw enough of the Jags. We went all in

519
00:25:57,240 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 1: on Doug Peterson. We did it right like before the

520
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:05,040
Speaker 1: season started. We said, we believe Doug Peterson will be

521
00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,440
Speaker 1: able to do things with this team and this quarterback

522
00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,200
Speaker 1: to get them in a position to win the division.

523
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: And that's exactly what happened. And it started to click

524
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: in the latter half of the year. So no reason

525
00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: to get off that Dougie pet train rent right now.

526
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 1: NFL wild Card weekend is here, and the easiest way

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562
00:28:30,119 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 1: about the Bucks. You mentioned the Bucks Love the Bucks

563
00:28:32,760 --> 00:28:34,800
Speaker 1: at two and a half Stucky in Raybound. We're talking

564
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:36,679
Speaker 1: about it today on the Action Network podcast. You know,

565
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 1: I love to listen to it on Thursdays, and we

566
00:28:39,440 --> 00:28:42,360
Speaker 1: were already on the Bucks. Stucky was talking about the

567
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 1: Bucks defense. We already had made some notes. We talked

568
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:48,880
Speaker 1: about this on Green Dot Daily on Tuesday. We talked

569
00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: about it in the podcast. Bucks Defense against the Past

570
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 1: plays to the weaknesses of Dak Prescott. They will get pressure.

571
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,480
Speaker 1: They allow, their top ten in in quarter back sacks,

572
00:29:00,520 --> 00:29:02,800
Speaker 1: their top ten in total passing yards allowed, their top

573
00:29:02,800 --> 00:29:05,680
Speaker 1: ten in yards per past attempt, and then stuck. He

574
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,040
Speaker 1: pointed out something when a Keen Hicks and Vitavera are

575
00:29:09,040 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 1: in the lineup at the same time. This team was

576
00:29:12,440 --> 00:29:16,040
Speaker 1: six and one this year, averaging under four yards per

577
00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:20,479
Speaker 1: rush allowed and averaging under sixteen points per game allowed.

578
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:24,600
Speaker 1: Without those two nearly five yards per rush allowed and

579
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:28,120
Speaker 1: nearly points per game. So I think we're getting a

580
00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 1: pretty good matchup here against an offense with an offense

581
00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 1: and Brady that I think was starting to peak in

582
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 1: the final few weeks of the year other than Atlanta game. Yeah,

583
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,000
Speaker 1: and only like we got a little bit of pushback,

584
00:29:42,040 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: and the only pushback was, well, their stature skewed just

585
00:29:44,960 --> 00:29:46,959
Speaker 1: because they played in such a weak division. And I

586
00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:49,520
Speaker 1: said to them, well, they had guys missing time a lot.

587
00:29:49,640 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 1: So Hicks was out for the amount of the season,

588
00:29:51,920 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 1: like that's a lot of Yeah, I can get where

589
00:29:54,040 --> 00:29:56,400
Speaker 1: they're coming from. That does help obviously them playing in

590
00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,000
Speaker 1: a division where you look at the quarterbacks of the division. Yeah,

591
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,800
Speaker 1: it was an absolute train wrecord, Like dec is one

592
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,800
Speaker 1: of the better quarterbacks they'll face all season. But if

593
00:30:05,800 --> 00:30:07,560
Speaker 1: you're going back and watch that film before he even

594
00:30:07,600 --> 00:30:10,320
Speaker 1: got hurt in that game earlier in the year, the

595
00:30:10,360 --> 00:30:12,440
Speaker 1: Bucks just did exactly what Chad talked about. They had

596
00:30:12,480 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure, which obviously Dad doesn't like. He

597
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:17,160
Speaker 1: hates to be moved off his spot. Um and then

598
00:30:17,200 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 1: you saw him the secondary he just did was not

599
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: be able to move the ball against that really ferocious

600
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 1: defense the Bucks do have when they're healthy. We already

601
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 1: talked about the To me, the biggest thing is the

602
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,640
Speaker 1: flip side where Cowboys secondary, they're just not what they

603
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,600
Speaker 1: were in the year. They have so many injuries to

604
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 1: that position. And we already know Godwin's healthy, Mike Evans

605
00:30:34,640 --> 00:30:36,480
Speaker 1: is healthy, we expect Julio to play in this game.

606
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,800
Speaker 1: Those are major weapons for Tom and we've seen Tom.

607
00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:41,720
Speaker 1: If he finds a team with a little bit of weakness,

608
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 1: he just all he does attack the weakness. He does

609
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 1: not care until he corrected, Tom just knows better. He'll

610
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 1: just keep attacking it. We saw against Carolina Mike Evans

611
00:30:49,720 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: he was literally in a coma for I don't even

612
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 1: know eleven weeks and he scored about three bombs in

613
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: that game, and it just felt like they kind of

614
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 1: found something there where Tom was just like, this is

615
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: here when I need this, This is always here. So um,

616
00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 1: matchup wise, we love it. We already talked about though

617
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: it's scary where this just feels too easy. It felt

618
00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:09,440
Speaker 1: too easy when I took the three, feels easy when

619
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 1: it's two and a half. So one of those Um,

620
00:31:14,000 --> 00:31:16,720
Speaker 1: I bet early in the week at three, I've taken

621
00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: a little of two and a half and now I've

622
00:31:18,560 --> 00:31:21,160
Speaker 1: just been waiting where it's like this goes to two

623
00:31:21,200 --> 00:31:23,360
Speaker 1: by Monday, that's okay, I'll still take it there. I'll

624
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 1: just take the money online if it goes to three.

625
00:31:25,360 --> 00:31:27,120
Speaker 1: That's what I'm hoping for. It's just hoping that the

626
00:31:27,160 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 1: public or whoever chases on the Cowboys come Monday night

627
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 1: and we get back up the three. So um, if

628
00:31:32,400 --> 00:31:33,840
Speaker 1: you already got the three or two and a half,

629
00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:35,640
Speaker 1: it's one of those lines you just hang out on

630
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,560
Speaker 1: wait until the game, wait until Monday. Not much you

631
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 1: do with it at this point last came to review.

632
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,240
Speaker 1: The only game we didn't spend a lot of time

633
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:47,240
Speaker 1: on last time was the Giants and the Vikings. Uh,

634
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,040
Speaker 1: anyone call you about the Giants and the Vikings. I

635
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 1: think we like probably lean Giants, but don't feel strongly

636
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,480
Speaker 1: about the Giants. Let's say, like a very very small

637
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 1: amount of rows are on the Giants. I'd say almost

638
00:32:02,480 --> 00:32:04,280
Speaker 1: most of the guys that talked to they just doing

639
00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: the same thing we're doing. You're taking a veteran quarterback

640
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,040
Speaker 1: against the guy who hadn't been the playoffs before, and

641
00:32:09,080 --> 00:32:14,320
Speaker 1: it's historically good where Daniel Jones this is if you're

642
00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 1: a guy who's just been back in them all season,

643
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 1: I think they're the best team a t S this season,

644
00:32:18,120 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: the Giants. This is your dream. It's you. It's what

645
00:32:21,440 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: you've been betting all season. If you bet the Giants,

646
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,880
Speaker 1: it's everyone like me doubting Daniel Jones doubting the Giants.

647
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 1: And I'm catching three points and they just somehow cover

648
00:32:28,080 --> 00:32:31,600
Speaker 1: the numbers, so um to me. I just like the

649
00:32:31,720 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: Vikings in this spot. I like the number for them.

650
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:38,080
Speaker 1: I like Kirk in the spot. Um, the Giants had

651
00:32:38,080 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: an incredible year. I just feel like it runs out

652
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:44,400
Speaker 1: here but completely. This is why I didn't make it

653
00:32:44,400 --> 00:32:47,000
Speaker 1: one of our four anything like unique to it. All

654
00:32:47,000 --> 00:32:51,280
Speaker 1: the games, just the most hated tortras. Bet I'm making

655
00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:53,080
Speaker 1: because I want to bet Daniel Jones. I like the

656
00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 1: I love these tight teams. Are just gritty as hell

657
00:32:55,320 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: and cover every number. Pray to what we think the

658
00:32:57,840 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: Vikings are, which is absolute fraws and their way inflated,

659
00:33:01,160 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: and then they should be just because Kirk had an incredible,

660
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:06,960
Speaker 1: incredible season in the fourth quarter. So um, that's why

661
00:33:07,000 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 1: I'm gonna back the Vikings, umost this whole playoff run

662
00:33:09,400 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: as long as they're in it, just because they just

663
00:33:11,560 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 1: feel like one of those teams that just knows how

664
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:14,959
Speaker 1: to win, Like they know how to win ugly, they

665
00:33:14,960 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: know to keep games close. So two and a half

666
00:33:17,720 --> 00:33:20,520
Speaker 1: we already talked about two and a half automatic butt Vikings,

667
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: three and a half automatic bet Giants. It's just the

668
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 1: perfect number. At three. I'll just take the Vikings because

669
00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:28,400
Speaker 1: I like them at home. Here. By the way, we've

670
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:32,120
Speaker 1: mentioned the luck rankings all season long on this podcast.

671
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 1: I should tell you that the biggest discrepancy in the

672
00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:40,520
Speaker 1: luck rankings for the playoffs right now, UH the only

673
00:33:40,560 --> 00:33:44,240
Speaker 1: one that is more than sixteen point differential in UH

674
00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 1: luck parameters, and that was a at higher than sixteen

675
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:55,320
Speaker 1: points or more in differential was covering it like a

676
00:33:56,200 --> 00:34:02,400
Speaker 1: clip during the season Tampa Bay Dallas. So it's another

677
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:05,960
Speaker 1: reason to take Tampa. Yep. Everything else it's interesting is

678
00:34:05,960 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 1: below ten, and so there's no real advantage below ten.

679
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 1: But that was a big one, I would say, even

680
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,920
Speaker 1: I would say when Cowboys fans could agree with that,

681
00:34:14,960 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 1: where it's like they had a lot of close games

682
00:34:16,800 --> 00:34:18,439
Speaker 1: and a lot of bounces kind of go other way

683
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:20,799
Speaker 1: where even when Dak put them in bad positions with

684
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 1: all the turnovers, they found a way. So that's why

685
00:34:23,880 --> 00:34:27,680
Speaker 1: it's like that the stat Evan put out about what

686
00:34:27,719 --> 00:34:30,200
Speaker 1: the hell was Brady being two and fourteen a t

687
00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 1: s and his last UH sixteen night games. It's like,

688
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 1: funk man, can I not see this stuff? Stop trying

689
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 1: to talk to me about this books one, I'm trying

690
00:34:36,880 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 1: to stay staunch where it's like I know this is

691
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,440
Speaker 1: the number I have to take Brady here. Evan of

692
00:34:41,480 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 1: course is having Abrahams who runs all of our research

693
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:48,480
Speaker 1: and is a true savant when it comes to betting information.

694
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:51,640
Speaker 1: By the way, I should say you and I waffling

695
00:34:51,719 --> 00:34:53,560
Speaker 1: on the Vikings Giants, you're taking a little piece of

696
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: the Vikings Raybon love the Giants on the Action Network

697
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 1: podcast Homer ha ha, I'm kidding. He's a pro, but

698
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: he is a Giants fan. Full disclosure. That's good. All right, Uh,

699
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 1: let's see our big balls. We're going with the Bills

700
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:14,719
Speaker 1: minus thirteen. You want to break up in the Ravens game, Well,

701
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: we kind of did. Yeah, it's fair. I would just

702
00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: saying everyone like, I'm still in on it. I'm still

703
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:23,200
Speaker 1: in on the and a half, but we obviously need hunting.

704
00:35:23,320 --> 00:35:25,000
Speaker 1: That's my biggest thing I wanted to say. It was

705
00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: just if you've already bet it, don't keep betting it

706
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,640
Speaker 1: every day, Like, don't be a psycho like me. Wait

707
00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,040
Speaker 1: until you get the keeping keeping uh notification wherever the

708
00:35:34,040 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 1: news is on the quarterback positions, because it's a big deal.

709
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: I mean Huntley, I know he's not an all starting

710
00:35:39,640 --> 00:35:41,080
Speaker 1: like that, but if you go back, he keeps. He

711
00:35:41,160 --> 00:35:42,840
Speaker 1: kept them in most close games. He was able to

712
00:35:42,920 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 1: put drives together. Um, that would just be a big

713
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,480
Speaker 1: deal for him playing in this game. So just keep waiting.

714
00:35:48,520 --> 00:35:52,239
Speaker 1: I would say, if you're nervous about your position, just

715
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:54,440
Speaker 1: tease out, do a teaser with the Bengals, get out

716
00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 1: of it, whatever you want to do. Get down to

717
00:35:55,760 --> 00:35:58,040
Speaker 1: that two and a half. But I already told you.

718
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:02,000
Speaker 1: I just there's something about this line. Um. It's just

719
00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:04,439
Speaker 1: it's where we go through the wild card weekend without

720
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 1: at least one real upset, and this would be I

721
00:36:07,600 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 1: feel like all the other games, it wouldn't be really

722
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,720
Speaker 1: an upset. Right if the Bucks one of the Jags,

723
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:13,560
Speaker 1: what I mean, it's under three, it wouldn't be shocking.

724
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:16,200
Speaker 1: I feel like the most people this would truly be shocking.

725
00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:19,280
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow losing here at home would be very shocking.

726
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:21,799
Speaker 1: So I'm just the reason I'm not giving out their

727
00:36:21,800 --> 00:36:23,360
Speaker 1: money line is just because I don't see it happening.

728
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,279
Speaker 1: Like we talk all time, Joe Cool, it's just hard

729
00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:27,759
Speaker 1: to think this guy is not gonna win by a

730
00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: field goal. It's just what he does. Um. But like

731
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 1: we said all the time, this is an inflated line.

732
00:36:33,239 --> 00:36:35,480
Speaker 1: Wm to wait too up. In the playoffs, everyone plays

733
00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:37,560
Speaker 1: tighter and when you have a dominant defense, which the

734
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: Ravens do. You're always in it. You're always in it.

735
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:42,160
Speaker 1: And that's what I'm trying to keep in saying in

736
00:36:42,200 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 1: my head, where it's like they're gonna be in this

737
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: game because of that defense, and that's really what we're

738
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,040
Speaker 1: back in here. So injuries again are mounting for that

739
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 1: that Bengals team. On the flip side, the Ravens defense

740
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 1: haveve only gotten healthier to this point. This is HEALTHI

741
00:36:54,200 --> 00:36:56,399
Speaker 1: if they've been all seasons. So that's that's what we're

742
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 1: back in. We're back in this Ravens defense. You can

743
00:36:58,840 --> 00:37:01,399
Speaker 1: following the action. Apple, I bettered at six and a half.

744
00:37:01,400 --> 00:37:03,160
Speaker 1: I bet it again at seven and a half. Of

745
00:37:03,160 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 1: course it went up to eight and a half. I

746
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:06,080
Speaker 1: haven't better at eight and a half just because I

747
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:07,920
Speaker 1: feel like I got it at seven and a half.

748
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna wait on the news for Huntley. Like

749
00:37:09,760 --> 00:37:13,000
Speaker 1: you said, Um, the Foxhole bet for us was the

750
00:37:13,080 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 1: raven six and a half. Now we'll just say it's

751
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 1: Raven's eight and a half. Uh, Simon says, was Jack's

752
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,000
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. Clearly you like it at

753
00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:23,239
Speaker 1: two and a half. And the exact decision was the

754
00:37:23,280 --> 00:37:31,439
Speaker 1: Bucks plus two and a half. Um, I think that's everything. Yeah,

755
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 1: just enjoy people. This is at six games. Next week's

756
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:36,520
Speaker 1: four week after that. To than one enjoy it. Most

757
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 1: games will have the rest of the year. It's really

758
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:45,640
Speaker 1: going to be an amazing super wild card two words weekend. Uh.

759
00:37:45,920 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 1: This has been the favorite podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

760
00:37:49,840 --> 00:37:52,440
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mollman. He is Simon Hunter for producer

761
00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 1: Extraordinary Matt Mitchell downloads from Apple podcast from Spotify wherever

762
00:37:56,560 --> 00:37:58,400
Speaker 1: you get your podcast, rate, review, subscribe and it was

763
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:00,520
Speaker 1: five stars. Say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift.

764
00:38:00,600 --> 00:38:08,280
Speaker 1: Listen all the way through until next time. I love you. Yeah.

765
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:16,360
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

766
00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is available.

767
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,240
Speaker 1: Seven Gambler