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Speaker 1: What's going on everybody. Scott Bagman here to tell you

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Speaker 1: all of my favorite bets and props for the college

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Speaker 1: football Week nine of the twenty twenty fourth season. Remember,

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Speaker 1: if you want to check out all of my bets,

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Speaker 1: tail me, fade me, however you feel about it, you

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Speaker 1: can do it at on the Betting Pros at or

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Speaker 1: at Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman bogm An. We'll take

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Speaker 1: you there to see all of the bets that I

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Speaker 1: have placed last week. Just doing a quick review here,

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Speaker 1: the picks were great five and one on the picks.

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Speaker 1: The props were pretty miserable over two on my touchdown props.

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Speaker 1: Luther Burden's quarterback Brady Cook got hurt and missed most

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Speaker 1: of that game. Did come back and win it for them,

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Speaker 1: but the last touchdown was not the Burden. I had

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Speaker 1: the Texas tight end Gunner Helm to score a touchdown. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: Texas could not do anything against Georgia at all. Looking

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Speaker 1: at the other props, I did get Kevin Jennings passing

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Speaker 1: yards scatterbow missed by I think fifteen yards. I just

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Speaker 1: did not expe Arizona State to get crushed this bat.

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Speaker 1: I thought Jeff Simms would give them a little semblance

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Speaker 1: of an offense. Sion Chris, the quarterback for Houston, got

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Speaker 1: hurt and left. Xavier Restrepo hit Tamal Banks again. I

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Speaker 1: thought Nebraska was gonna get beat pretty bad. I did

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Speaker 1: not see them getting waste late to them by Indiana,

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Speaker 1: which is exactly what had happened. They lost fifty six

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Speaker 1: to seven in that one. But the good news was

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Speaker 1: we laid the points for Indiana. UCF almost won that

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Speaker 1: game out right. So the first half was great army.

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Speaker 1: We laid the points and won by the hook. That

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Speaker 1: was getting scary at the end, but we got it.

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Speaker 1: SMU destroyed Stanford Navy, and Charlotte was over in the

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Speaker 1: third quarter. Hit the over in the third quarter. I

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Speaker 1: should say. The only one I missed was Michigan again

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Speaker 1: because I've been bad at picking Michigan. And guess what

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Speaker 1: we're done picking Michigan this year. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: that much right now. But let's get into what I

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Speaker 1: have four week nine. A lot of these you guys

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Speaker 1: probably saw in my article or heard me talking about

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Speaker 1: on this show on Wednesday with to Rell and Seth,

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Speaker 1: of course, but Indiana, this line has gotten better for US.

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Speaker 1: It's minus five and a half against Washington, and I

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Speaker 1: know their quarterback went down and we are dealing with

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Speaker 1: a backup quarterback. But to me, it's the defense that

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Speaker 1: is going to keep Washington from scoring because Washington, while

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Speaker 1: I've had a decent offense, they're ninety fourth in points

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Speaker 1: per game, twenty four point one points per game. That

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Speaker 1: is not going to cut it against Washington. And it's

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Speaker 1: not like they've been playing against upper tier defenses either.

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Speaker 1: They put up thirty on Eastern Michigan, who is averaging

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Speaker 1: giving up twenty six point one, and they're eighty first.

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Speaker 1: Washington State they only put up nineteen points. Washington State

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Speaker 1: is eighty eighth, Northwestern is twenty ninth. They scored twenty

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Speaker 1: four against them, eighteen against Rutgers, who's fifty second less

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Speaker 1: than average against them. Michigan they put up twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: Michigan's fiftieth. In Iowa, who's eighth and only allows fourteen

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Speaker 1: point four points per game, Washington only put up sixteen

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Speaker 1: and let them score forty. So to me, it's Indiana's defense.

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Speaker 1: They come in seventh in scoring defense, seventh and total defense.

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Speaker 1: Indiana's tenth and defensive performance fourth in defensive performance against

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Speaker 1: the pass this season, it might be fair to say

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Speaker 1: that they haven't played anyone, but they cover. So we're

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Speaker 1: just gonna take Indiana in to the wheels fall off

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Speaker 1: on that one. So Indiana minus five and a half

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Speaker 1: lock that one up. We're gonna go Notre Dame minus

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Speaker 1: thirteen and a half against Navy. I feel like Trell

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Speaker 1: and I are the only ones picking Notre Dame here.

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Speaker 1: But to me, this is about how Navy just hasn't

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Speaker 1: played anyone. Yes, they did beat a good Memphis team.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about Memphis in a little bit here, but

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Speaker 1: that's the only winning team that they've beat. The other

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Speaker 1: teams that they've played in the FBS are combined seven

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Speaker 1: and twenty one. They've faced some bottom level scoring offenses,

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Speaker 1: Temple's on hundred nineteenth, uab's one hundred and thirteenth Air

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Speaker 1: Forces one hundred thirty first, Charlotte's one hundred and first. Memphis,

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Speaker 1: the only good team that they played offensively so far

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Speaker 1: this season, put up six hundred and fifty nine yards

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Speaker 1: on them and forty four points. So I think Navy

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Speaker 1: is stronger than that, or excuse me, Notre Dame is

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Speaker 1: stronger than Navy, and you know, this is a home

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Speaker 1: game for Navy, but it's at MetLife, so we're going

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Speaker 1: to see a lot of gold in the crowd of

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Speaker 1: course there. I just don't think that Navy is really

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Speaker 1: a match for Notre Dame. Yet. You know, they bowed

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Speaker 1: up and played well in this game in the past.

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Speaker 1: It's not out of the realm of possibility. Notre Dame

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Speaker 1: is banged up, specifically on defense, but you just don't

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Speaker 1: pass enough to do anything against Notre Dame in my opinion,

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Speaker 1: So I think Notre Dame is going to roll Navy

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Speaker 1: this week. Let's lay a bunch of points and take

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Speaker 1: Miami minus twenty and a half against Florida State. I

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Speaker 1: understand that a lot of people talk about how this

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Speaker 1: is a rivalry game, we throw the records out in

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Speaker 1: a rivalry game and all of that stuff, But I

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Speaker 1: cannot throw out what I've seen from Florida State's offense.

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Speaker 1: It has been straight up miserable. There are one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty second out of one hundred and thirty four

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Speaker 1: in scoring and total offense. They're ninety first in passing

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Speaker 1: because they have to pass a lot to try to

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Speaker 1: play catchup. They are one hundred and thirty first in rushing.

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Speaker 1: They're one hundred and eighteenth in offensive grade. On PFF,

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Speaker 1: there are one hundred and thirtieth in offensive performance. Miami

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Speaker 1: is going to embarrass Florida State in this game. I

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Speaker 1: do not think this is a close game. I think

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Speaker 1: Miami rolls them. I mean, what can we expect from

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Speaker 1: Florida State? Fourteen points, maybe even twenty one points, So

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Speaker 1: are we giving them three touchdowns? Miami's gonna score forty

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Speaker 1: five to fifty in this game. They're gonna have the

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Speaker 1: ball a lot. Cam Ward seems unstoppable. They haven't been

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Speaker 1: able to stop anybody recently. But Fit's perfect because Florida

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Speaker 1: State can't score on anyone. So me, I just see

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Speaker 1: this as a lopsided match. I'm gonna lay all those

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Speaker 1: points and take the Canes. We're going to go to

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Speaker 1: Penn State minus six and a half at Wisconsin and

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Speaker 1: this pick it doesn't match with the current trends of

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Speaker 1: these teams. Right. Wisconsin's covered in the last three, Penn

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Speaker 1: State has not covered in the last three, and Wisconsin

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Speaker 1: has started to find a little bit of a rhythm here,

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Speaker 1: which is nice, but they've been able to mask the

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Speaker 1: passing issues by running the ball. During this streak, they've

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Speaker 1: ran it at a sixty point seven percent clip. Penn

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Speaker 1: State is currently tenth in rushing defense. So I think

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Speaker 1: Penn State is going to force them to pass the ball.

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Speaker 1: And when that happens, rain luck has been terrible five

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Speaker 1: point four percent turnover worthy play rate that is one

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Speaker 1: hundred and forty four out of one hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: five qualified qbs. I think that's likely to show up.

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Speaker 1: I think Penn State makes a play on the ball,

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Speaker 1: and I think they're going to be able to move

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Speaker 1: the ball on pretty much anyone, especially Wisconsin here, and

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Speaker 1: Wisconsin is a team that beats the teams that they're

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Speaker 1: supposed to and loses to the teams that they're supposed to.

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Speaker 1: That's kind of been the trend of what's happened with

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Speaker 1: them this season. A couple games you haven't heard me

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Speaker 1: talk about here. We're gonna just pick on Charlotte again.

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Speaker 1: We did it last week with Navy and we took

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Speaker 1: the over here. They're playing Memphis this week. It's fifty

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. Charlotte is ninety fifth against the pass.

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Speaker 1: They Greade one hundred and ninth. They just give up

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Speaker 1: fifty one to Navy. Three passing touchdowns to Navy on

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Speaker 1: thirteen attempts. Memphis passes at a sixty percent clip. Charlotte

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Speaker 1: games have gone five to two to the over. Memphis

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Speaker 1: is only one hundred and fourth in pace of play,

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Speaker 1: so we look at that and maybe we say, man,

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Speaker 1: Memphis takes a long time. But Navy is one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty third in pace of play and they just

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Speaker 1: put up fifty one on them. So I think Memphis

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Speaker 1: is going to be strong in this game. I think

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Speaker 1: this over hits pretty easily at fifty seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: And the last game, we're gonna go to the Mountain West.

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of you guys are gonna have

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Speaker 1: eyes on Utah State laying one and a half at Wyoming.

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Speaker 1: That's where we're going to here, and look they're playing.

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Speaker 1: You know at Wyoming, it's at elevation. There's gonna be

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Speaker 1: a little bit of wind, but it's just at ten

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Speaker 1: miles per hour, and we really start to see a

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Speaker 1: movement of lines and things at fifteen, and we get

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Speaker 1: significant movement at twenty five. So we're not going to

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Speaker 1: have that in this game, at least as far as

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Speaker 1: what the forecast is showing me today. But Utah State,

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Speaker 1: they have allowed no fewer than thirty eight points in

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Speaker 1: an FBS offense and fifty four points per game over

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Speaker 1: the last three is what they're allowing. Their defense is miserable.

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Speaker 1: Utah State is one hundred and thirty third of one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty four teams in scoring defense, and even

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Speaker 1: Wyoming's miserable offense, they have not been good. Should be

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Speaker 1: able to score on them. But Wyoming has played strong defense.

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Speaker 1: But Utah State has put up at least twenty nine

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Speaker 1: points in all of Spencer Petriz's starts. They had forty

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Speaker 1: five last week. This offense is hitting a different pace

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Speaker 1: right now. They're stepping up to the next level for

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Speaker 1: UTA State. So Wyoming has problems moving the ball, they

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Speaker 1: should be able to score. I think this will be

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Speaker 1: a close game. That's why UTA State is only a

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Speaker 1: one and a half point favorite. But I think at

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Speaker 1: the end of the day, I trust the offenses more

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Speaker 1: than I trust I trust UTA State's offense more than

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Speaker 1: I trust Wyoming's defense because Wyoming has let up some

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Speaker 1: points when playing a decent offensive opponent, and I think

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Speaker 1: that's exactly what we're going to have in this game.

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Speaker 1: Before I get to the props, if you're looking to

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Speaker 1: up your game in sports betting, join our exclusive sports

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Speaker 1: betting discord community at bettingpros dot com slash chat. Not

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Speaker 1: only can you connect with expert handicappers who provide free

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Speaker 1: picks for the NBA, NFL, MLB, college sports, player props,

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Speaker 1: live betting, and more, but now you can also participate

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Speaker 1: in our weekly community picks, cast your vote, see how

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Speaker 1: your picks stack up against the experts, and track your

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Speaker 1: success at bettingpros dot com slash Chat. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get to some props here. I'm going out on a

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Speaker 1: limb on UH with four touchdown calls this week. Normally

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Speaker 1: I only do one or two, but there are a

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Speaker 1: bunch I like. I have seven other player props in

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Speaker 1: terms of yards for you. But let's start with Jamal

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Speaker 1: Haynes running back for Georgia Tech. At Virginia Tech, He's

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Speaker 1: minus one twenty to score a touchdown. Vo Tech is

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Speaker 1: ninety eighth and rushing yards allowed. They have allowed ten

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Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns this season. Haynes has eight rushing touchdowns nine

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Speaker 1: overall and has only not scored a touchdown in one game.

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Speaker 1: Even against who was I think Notre Dame they played

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Speaker 1: a couple weeks ago. They'd scored barely any points to

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Speaker 1: one touchdown. He was the touchdown. Kevin Coleman, the wide

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Speaker 1: receiver form Mississippi State against Arkansas is even money plus

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Speaker 1: one hundred to score a touchdown, and the total in

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Speaker 1: this game is high fifty seven and a half. Archie

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Speaker 1: is only a six and a half point favorite against

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Speaker 1: Mississippi State, and he leads Kevin Coleman Mississippi State by

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Speaker 1: a wide margin in targets, catches, yards, four touchdowns. He

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Speaker 1: went through a dip when Van Buren started to became

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Speaker 1: the quarterback here for Mississippi State after Blake Shaping went down,

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Speaker 1: but twenty three targets, sixteen catches, one hundred and ninety

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Speaker 1: two yards and a score over the last two weeks

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Speaker 1: is becoming a bigger target in Arkansas will give up

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Speaker 1: some passing yards. Let's go to Brendon Presley, the wide

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Speaker 1: receiver at Oklahoma State at Baylor. This is plus one fifteen.

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Speaker 1: He leads Okay State and target's receptions receiving touchdowns sixty

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Speaker 1: four and a half is the total in this game.

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Speaker 1: I just think Brendon Presley is very likely to score

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Speaker 1: a touchdown. This is going to be a high scoring game.

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma States defense hasn't been able to stop anyone. We

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Speaker 1: saw what happened in that Friday Night BYU game, back

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Speaker 1: and forth, back and forth, back and forth, lots of scoring.

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Speaker 1: Baylor finally figured out their offense a little bit last

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Speaker 1: week and put up some points. So I think Brenon

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Speaker 1: Presley is going to score a touchdown in this game.

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Speaker 1: This one is a little out there. I'm going to

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Speaker 1: take Aiden Chiles, the quarterback for Michigan State, to score

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Speaker 1: a touchdown. This number is big, it's plus two seventy.

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Speaker 1: He has three rushing touchdowns season, but he hasn't had

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Speaker 1: one since September twenty first against Boston College. The last

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Speaker 1: two weeks, though, he has pulled through with double digit

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Speaker 1: rush attempts and had twenty three rushes for eighty yards

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Speaker 1: over those last two games. Michigan was run over by

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Speaker 1: Illinois last week. That is why I lost that bet

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Speaker 1: Altmeyer had ten rushes for forty eight yards and he

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Speaker 1: scored and he only had one rushing touchdown going into

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Speaker 1: that game against Michigan. Michigan's top ten against the run.

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Speaker 1: They've allowed only five touchdowns, So that is why this

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Speaker 1: number is big, and I like it plus two seventy.

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Speaker 1: It is a swing, but it's a swing that I

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Speaker 1: think might be worth taking. I got two passing yard

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Speaker 1: props forty guys here Taylor Green, the quarterback for Arkansas

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Speaker 1: at Mississippi State. The total here is two hundred and

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Speaker 1: twenty four and a half. That is gonna two twenty

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Speaker 1: five plus is paying you minus one twenty five over

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Speaker 1: two fifties paying you plus one seventy. But Mississippi State

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Speaker 1: is one hundred and twelve in passing yards, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and twenty, ninth in coverage grade, and dead last in

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Speaker 1: sacks only five this season. Taylor Green has hit this

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Speaker 1: four games overall. In the last three games straight. Mississippi

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Speaker 1: State's offense put up thirty one on Georgia and twenty

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Speaker 1: four in Texas A and M over the last two weeks,

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Speaker 1: so they've really started to kin and kind of open

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Speaker 1: it up. And I think the best part about this

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Speaker 1: bet for Taylor Green is that their number one running back,

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Speaker 1: Jaquinin Jackson has been ruled out. This could be a

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Speaker 1: close game with Arkie only favored by six and a

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Speaker 1: half here, So I really like this total of two

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty four and a half passing yards to

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Speaker 1: hit the over for Taylor Green. Let's go to Hank Bachmeier,

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Speaker 1: the quarterback for wake Forest, who's been shaky recently. But

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Speaker 1: the good news is that he's at Stanford in this game,

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Speaker 1: and his total is only two hundred and forty two

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Speaker 1: and a half passing yards. You can bet this all

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Speaker 1: the way up to three hundred. I like two fifty plus.

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Speaker 1: Won'll pay you even money two seventy five plus. We'll

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Speaker 1: get you the plus one ninety five if you want

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Speaker 1: to go on a limb. But if we're just doing

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Speaker 1: this on you know, a prop side underdog player, picks whatever.

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Speaker 1: Two forty two and a half. He hasn't looked good,

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Speaker 1: like I said in last two games. But Stanford one

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty fourth in passing yards allowed, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirteenth in coverage grade. They're decent in pass rush.

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Speaker 1: They do have fourteen sacks, but wake is top thirty

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Speaker 1: in pass block grade. They've given up eighteen sacks this year,

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Speaker 1: which is a lot, but eleven. We're in the first

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Speaker 1: three games of the season and they've only given up

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Speaker 1: six over the last four games. Wake also passes at

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Speaker 1: a sixty one percent clip. Blackbyers averaged thirty three point

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Speaker 1: three passing attempts and two hundred and forty four point

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Speaker 1: seven yards per game. And Wake is only favored by

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Speaker 1: three in this game because their defense has been bad too,

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Speaker 1: so we could see this game turn into a shootout.

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Speaker 1: So those are the two that I like for passing,

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Speaker 1: Taylor Green and Hank Bockbyern Let's go two rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: I have two plays for a year. Jam Miller the

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Speaker 1: running back for Alabama versus Missouri over forty seven and

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Speaker 1: a half rushing yards. Bama has been throwing the ball

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Speaker 1: and losing forty five attempts at Tennessee. They gave Milroll

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Speaker 1: eighteen carries. Against South Carolina, they lost time of possession

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Speaker 1: to Vandy because they didn't stick to the run and

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Speaker 1: the defense also couldn't get off the field. I'll give

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Speaker 1: that up, but they just they didn't run the ball

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Speaker 1: and they lost. I think this should this game should

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Speaker 1: have more rushing attempts for Alabama. Keep the ball, don't

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Speaker 1: let your bad defense get exposed. Right, Brady Cook may

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Speaker 1: not even be playing in this game from Missouri this weekend,

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Speaker 1: so this should be slanted more towards Alabama in time

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Speaker 1: of possession. Should they need to go two way backup quarterback,

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Speaker 1: which seems very likely at this point. So I really

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Speaker 1: like Jan Miller to get more carries in this game,

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Speaker 1: and this total forty seven and a half is very doable,

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Speaker 1: especially if they have the ball a lot and they're

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Speaker 1: playing against a tire defense at the end. Right now,

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Speaker 1: fifty plus will pay minus one ten. You could bet

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Speaker 1: this up to like seventy plus for plus two to

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Speaker 1: seventy five. I think that's the window I'd stick, and

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Speaker 1: you can bet it higher. I don't think I would.

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Speaker 1: Corey Kiner, the running back for Cincinnati, is at Colorado.

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Speaker 1: His total is eighty eight and a half rushing yards.

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Speaker 1: Colorado is middling against the run, eighty ninth, one hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty three point one. Again another team where if

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Speaker 1: you want to stop Colorado, you keep possession of the

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Speaker 1: ball and you don't let Stor Sanders and Travis Hunter

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Speaker 1: beat you on offense. You make them try to beat

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Speaker 1: you with their defense or way worse on defense than

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Speaker 1: they are on offense this year. Colorado has been good,

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Speaker 1: so but I think Cincinnati is going to bow up

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Speaker 1: here a little bit. Ninety plus will pay you minus

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Speaker 1: one fifteen. You can bet this up to one hundred

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Speaker 1: and ten plus one ninety five. Don't think I would

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Speaker 1: go any higher than that. Let's go to receiving yards.

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Speaker 1: I got three plays here for you. Malachi Fields, wide

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Speaker 1: receiver for Virginia against North Carolina. The over is eighty

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Speaker 1: three and a half receiving yards un C one hundred

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Speaker 1: thin passing yards allowed one hundred and seven. The in

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Speaker 1: coverage grade UVA over fifty percent pass rate, only three

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Speaker 1: and a half point favorites, and their top thirty in pace,

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Speaker 1: which means you're gonna see a lot of plays from

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Speaker 1: Virginia in this game, and probably a lot of passing

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Speaker 1: as well. So I think Malachi Fields can hit this.

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Speaker 1: A couple weeks ago he had seventeen targets. I think

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Speaker 1: he only had six against Clemson, but that's Clemson, right,

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Speaker 1: So Malackaye Fields is a first look on pretty much

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Speaker 1: every single throwing play for Virginia, and I think he's

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Speaker 1: going to continue to be that guy. I'm gonna pair

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Speaker 1: our Taylor Green over with his number one wide receiver

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Speaker 1: Andrew Armstrong, the wide receiver for Arkansas. The total here

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Speaker 1: is eighty three and a half yards. I explained a

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Speaker 1: lot about this with the Taylor Green stuff, but he's

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Speaker 1: the Arcy number one wide receiver. He's hit this in

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Speaker 1: four six games. Mississippi State has actually been scoring recently,

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Speaker 1: so maybe this plays a little bit more back and

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Speaker 1: forth than we expect. And you can bet this one.

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Speaker 1: This one goes all the way up to one twenty

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Speaker 1: if you wanted to get plus three sixty, I like,

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Speaker 1: you know, nineties plus one twenty five, one hundred is

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Speaker 1: plus one eighty five. I think those both decent numbers.

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Speaker 1: And my last wide receiver we're gonna hit this one.

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Speaker 1: We barely got this one the last time we played it.

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Speaker 1: It took literally to the end of the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 1: But Daniel Jackson, the wide receiver from Minnesota versus Maryland,

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Speaker 1: his total sixty and a half yards, and he's had

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Speaker 1: over ten targets in four of the last five games

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Speaker 1: from Minnesota. They're only a four point favorite in this

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Speaker 1: game against Maryland, and Maryland statistically is one hundred and

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Speaker 1: twentieth against the pass. They're ninety ninth in coverage grade.

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Speaker 1: You can play this one up to like ninety yards

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Speaker 1: for plus two to eighty. Minnesota likes to run the ball,

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Speaker 1: that's what they prefer. But they actually have been passing

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Speaker 1: more with Brozmer than they have in other seasons. So

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Speaker 1: that is everything I got for you guys this week.

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Speaker 1: Remember you can follow me on the Twitter app bogmin Sports,

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Speaker 1: and to follow my bets, go to the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: app or type in Bettingpros dot com slash Bogman bog

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00:18:53,280 --> 00:18:55,679
Speaker 1: m an and you can ride along with these bets

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Speaker 1: or fade them however you feel like it. But that

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Speaker 1: is it for me. Good luck every buddy, Take it

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Speaker 1: easy and we'll see you next week. Thanks for listening

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Speaker 1: to the Betting Pros podcast. If you love the show,

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Speaker 1: the best freeway to support us is by leaving a

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00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,439
Speaker 1: positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on

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Speaker 1: Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

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Speaker 1: dot com slash Betting Pros