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Speaker 1: crown is yours this week on Prime Cuts, Nick right
Speaker 1: Nigh on usc Colorado and if Caleb Williams Frankly is
Speaker 1: already a top five quarterback talent in the world. Chad Millman,
Speaker 1: Sharper Square and My top takes of the Week. I
Speaker 1: was saying this yesterday, I was talking I think it
Speaker 1: was Jason McIntyre. I said it on the air, and
Speaker 1: I text him yesterday. It's the strongest quarterback class ever.
Speaker 1: Arizona is not the worst team. Chicago probably is. And
Speaker 1: you'd obviously take Caleb Williams over Justin Fields and start over.
Speaker 1: That's not even a discussion Arizona. It's gonna win the
Speaker 1: Arizona's gonna win three or four games, and they're just
Speaker 1: not going to be there. And they also there's also
Speaker 1: other quarterbacks. But I would not take Drake mayover Kyler Murray.
Speaker 1: I would take Caleb over everybody not named Mahomes, Josh Allen.
Speaker 2: You and I are the only people saying this. People
Speaker 2: thought I was out of my mind. I said that
Speaker 2: Caleb is one of the five most valuable quarterbacks alive
Speaker 2: right now. Totally, like if every NFL player and college
Speaker 2: player were available. Mahomes goes one. There's some debate about
Speaker 2: who goes to and Kallee goes before everyone other than
Speaker 2: maybe three people.
Speaker 1: Yeah, Josh Allen goes before him. I would take Burrow
Speaker 1: before him. Although Burrell's injuries now are mounting. He can't
Speaker 1: get through a preseason, He's hurt again.
Speaker 2: It does work, I would have said Trevor three weeks ago,
Speaker 2: but I thought that Trevor has been a little disappointing.
Speaker 2: But he's on the short list. But that's that's it. Man.
Speaker 2: He goes before this is not disrespectful. He goes in
Speaker 2: a heartbeat, before Hurts, before Lamar, before Tua, before that.
Speaker 2: He just does. Caleb goes before all those.
Speaker 1: Totally. I wouldn't take it for Mahomes Alan Herbert. I
Speaker 1: think he's better potentially than Trevor Lawrence, but you've kind
Speaker 1: of he's a southern kid. It's a southern city. I
Speaker 1: think you go with him and then I think it
Speaker 1: gets then I that might be the list that could that's.
Speaker 2: The list, and I would take him over at Herbert,
Speaker 2: and I would take him over Herbert.
Speaker 1: And I wouldn't because I think Herbert has been under coached.
Speaker 1: I mean they're on their second or third coordinator, their
Speaker 1: second coach.
Speaker 2: That's fair.
Speaker 1: I think if he had a reasonable offensive coach, his numbers,
Speaker 1: I mean I watched him Sunday.
Speaker 2: He made through.
Speaker 3: I mean it just did.
Speaker 2: He didn't play pretty well. He played pretty.
Speaker 1: Well and without Austin Eckler, Mike Williams late, it's just
Speaker 1: on the road.
Speaker 2: Can I ask you a college football question. This is
Speaker 2: kind of a media question as long as well as
Speaker 2: college football. Oh, by the way, I think there's nothing.
Speaker 2: And I like Dan Lanning. I like him a lot.
Speaker 2: Dan Lanning is a Kansas City guy. Used to listen
Speaker 2: to my radio show called Into My Buddies radio show
Speaker 2: in Kansas City, the Church of Laslo. I like Dan,
Speaker 2: but I got a little bit of a chuckle. The
Speaker 2: coach of the Oregon Ducks also known as the Nike
Speaker 2: Marketing University of Football, being like, they're in it for
Speaker 2: the clicks. We're hard. No, we play these games with
Speaker 2: the lights off, Like, huh, don't you guys have any
Speaker 2: on yellow jerseys?
Speaker 1: Three hundred uniforms.
Speaker 2: It's like, give me a break. Coldal I speech was
Speaker 2: for his players to get them fired up, and I
Speaker 2: saw that. I'm like, this isn't exactly Texas A and
Speaker 2: m out here being like, give me a break. All right.
Speaker 2: So here's my question. I think USC is gonna score
Speaker 2: seventy points on Colorado. I think it's end play. I mean,
Speaker 2: I think Oregon has a better defense than USC. Yeah,
Speaker 2: USC is a better offense. USC is gonna score every
Speaker 2: time you touch the ball. If Colorado gets annihilated again.
Speaker 2: Does the country stop caring about them for this year?
Speaker 1: I think, yeah, I think it. I think it. I
Speaker 1: think Colorado, because they're humiliated, is probably more competitive at home,
Speaker 1: and USC's defense is better than last year, but not great.
Speaker 1: So I think it's more of a forty five to
Speaker 1: twenty one game. I think it's I don't think it's
Speaker 1: that close US. He is clearly better. They may score
Speaker 1: in the fifties. I think. I think what Dion has
Speaker 1: done he has not moved college football fans to his channel.
Speaker 1: He's brought in people that didn't like college football, pro fans,
Speaker 1: Dion fans, cowboy fans. If you look at the numbers,
Speaker 1: he's not moving people from Georgia to Colorado. He found
Speaker 1: like three people.
Speaker 2: He's got it. Yeah, and it's and listen, it's not
Speaker 2: it's not poor form to say it, because it's facts.
Speaker 2: He is. There are massive amounts of black people that
Speaker 2: were not watching college football that are now. Not that
Speaker 2: black people don't watch college football, but when you look
Speaker 2: at the act, our guy Michael mulbihill at Fox has
Speaker 2: all the data and tweets it out Dion. What Dion
Speaker 2: has done for the for the black audience of college football.
Speaker 2: And that's I mean, it's it's it's historic, it's un
Speaker 2: it's it's unprecedented.
Speaker 1: Yeah, like the thirty five to forty percent viewers that
Speaker 1: don't watch the sport.
Speaker 2: Correct, and that's that's not obviously all black people, but
Speaker 2: that is disproportionately a black audience. And so I I
Speaker 2: just wonder I think this there was the other like
Speaker 2: the idea, there were some After Colorado got their teeth
Speaker 2: kicked in, there was some pushback. They were like, oh,
Speaker 2: maybe now the media stopped pushing this down our throats. Guys.
Speaker 2: There were ten million people watching Colorado Colorado State game
Speaker 2: at two in the morning Eastern.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: If you go to DraftKings, volume war with DraftKings, right, DraftKings.
Speaker 2: If you go to DraftKings, they have a tab it's
Speaker 2: like the end. You want to bet the NBA, the NFL,
Speaker 2: college football, Colorado and the Tennis. Like, I mean that's true.
Speaker 2: Good look at it. It's I mean, it is this
Speaker 2: was not. Certain things are media creations. The interest in
Speaker 2: Colorado was not. People were into it, yeah, and I
Speaker 2: think they still are if they lose by forty next week.
Speaker 2: I think it dis.
Speaker 1: Fant Taylor Swift, Travis Kelcey is very much media generated.
Speaker 1: It's fun. It was a blowout, the game was over.
Speaker 1: Let's put it up. I'm fascinating in Deon Sanders. I
Speaker 1: don't think it will be as uh, you know, Intergalact ratings,
Speaker 1: Bonanza comets through the sky, but I'll still watch. I mean,
Speaker 1: I said before, I'm not rooting former against him. I
Speaker 1: roote for interesting. Dion's interesting, the cowboy hat, the shades,
Speaker 1: the attitude. Colorado has been a I mean, you don't
Speaker 1: even remember this. I knew Colorado sports because of Robbie Benson,
Speaker 1: a movie in the seventies called One on One. You
Speaker 1: could could google. No, it was I don't remember, like
Speaker 1: nobody cared about Colorado sports.
Speaker 2: The you know, the first memory I have a Colorado sports.
Speaker 2: I was never a Missouri football fan, but I'm from Kansay.
Speaker 2: Missouri is the fifth down play. I don't know if
Speaker 2: you met, Missouri was playing Colorado at the end of
Speaker 2: a Big eight season one year and the down guys
Speaker 2: screwed up and Colorado got a fifth down. But so,
Speaker 2: all right, here's my last Colorado thing. This is their
Speaker 2: schedule the rest of the way home for USC loss,
Speaker 2: they're gonna get. Yeah, at Arizona State when they can
Speaker 2: win that, okay. Home for Stanford win, at u c
Speaker 2: l A win, Okay, well then they're fine. Home for
Speaker 2: Oregon State is probably a loss, go either way game
Speaker 2: Home for Arizona win and then at Wazoo and at
Speaker 2: Utah lost loss, they'll definitely lose at Utah. That will
Speaker 2: lose Utah. Utah. Utah is just big. If you put
Speaker 2: took Shador and Colorado's best skill guy and gave me
Speaker 2: to Utah, you have the best team in the country.
Speaker 2: I mean, because Utah has all that. When Dion's talking,
Speaker 2: I need seven or eight people he means offensive and
Speaker 2: defensive line. Yeah, he needs big people. But so you
Speaker 2: think they can go seven and five eight and absolutely
Speaker 2: that would be an amazing series.
Speaker 1: That would be an amazing I think it's wonderful he
Speaker 1: has brought and I when I say he's brought p
Speaker 1: in that didn't watch the sport. He's brought NFL fans in,
Speaker 1: Niner fans, cowboy fans, He's brought people that didn't really
Speaker 1: like they're Dion fans. And by the way, if Dion
Speaker 1: walked through a mall, it's not just it's it's he's
Speaker 1: Deon Sanders.
Speaker 2: He's had Wells forever. Wilds asked this and it was
Speaker 2: a very interesting question. It wasn't even on TV. He's
Speaker 2: asked me. He said, is Dion the most famous person
Speaker 2: to ever coach college full And it's like, I, I mean.
Speaker 1: I don't, well bear think he is famous because he
Speaker 1: coached college football. Yes, I think he's the most famous
Speaker 1: person that has coached college football.
Speaker 2: And like, right now, if Nick Saban and Dion Sanders
Speaker 2: are walking on separate sides of the mall, it First
Speaker 2: of all, there are parts of the country where Nick
Speaker 2: Saban would not be bothered, right and even in Alabama,
Speaker 2: everyone knows Dion. They might be more excited about Nick,
Speaker 2: but everyone nobody doesn't know him, And so like there
Speaker 2: that is a real power. It is a level of
Speaker 2: like fame and celebrity we've never had in college foot.
Speaker 1: When you when you have a nickname and people in
Speaker 1: your nickname doesn't have anything to do with your name,
Speaker 1: like Mamba Kobe, Yeah, that's famous, prime Deon Sanders crime
Speaker 1: Like usually you know it's connected to your name, but
Speaker 1: there's very few people music or otherwise that have a
Speaker 1: nickname where their name's not included in it, and universally
Speaker 1: everybody knows what you're talking about.
Speaker 2: And it's another word on its own, you know what.
Speaker 2: It's not like like it was shack is, but it's
Speaker 2: another word on its own. Prime means its own thing.
Speaker 2: But right now, if someone says prime you think of
Speaker 2: Colorado football, that's pretty goddamn powerful.
Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I think it's great for this. I love
Speaker 1: college football. I think love some NFL fans that are
Speaker 1: Sunday viewers that don't watch Saturday football. They're certainly, as
Speaker 1: you noted, an African American component, But I think a
Speaker 1: big chunk of it is he brought Sunday people to
Speaker 1: Saturday TV and it's great.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that's right. I think that's absolutely right.
Speaker 1: All right, everybody, it's time for Sharper Square. Chad Milman,
Speaker 1: the CEO of Action Network. All odds provided by DraftKings.
Speaker 1: I went three to one and one on my blazing
Speaker 1: five picks. Rams was a push, even though I thought
Speaker 1: they outplayed the Bengals for the first two quarters maybe
Speaker 1: two and a half. But that's the way gambling works.
Speaker 3: All right.
Speaker 1: Let's start with some favorites. As you know, I'm not
Speaker 1: a huge fan of favorites. I usually take three to
Speaker 1: four underdogs. But I think it's interesting Miami goes on
Speaker 1: the road again. They have struggled to stop Josh Allen
Speaker 1: again and again. And here's what concerns me is that
Speaker 1: Buffalo can create pressure bringing just four. That's the way
Speaker 1: to slow down Miami New England. You don't need sacks.
Speaker 1: You need to create a little chaos and pressure. So
Speaker 1: I think Buffalo minus two and a half. It is
Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets of the week. At minus three,
Speaker 1: I still lean Buffalo, but teams that score seventy, they
Speaker 1: feel themselves a little pull back, a little another flight
Speaker 1: to the northeast. What say you, Sharper Squareshed.
Speaker 4: Dude, it's like you are reading from the sharp script,
Speaker 4: no joke.
Speaker 3: Everything you just.
Speaker 4: Said is why the wise guys are on Buffalo at
Speaker 4: minus two and a half. So a they tend to
Speaker 4: like a divisional game if they can get the favorite
Speaker 4: under a field goal. So there is a slight lean there.
Speaker 4: B What you said about the pressure is key. Sean
Speaker 4: McDermott has had to his number right two has been
Speaker 4: incredibly good against every other team, and he's been much
Speaker 4: less good against Sean McDermott. And now Sean McDermott has
Speaker 4: what you just said, he has film of what the
Speaker 4: Patriots did, and the Patriots did a really good job
Speaker 4: against Tua. Now, look, they have Christian Gonzalez who is
Speaker 4: turning into an A plus draft pick and a dominant
Speaker 4: cover corner. But what they basically did with that umbrella
Speaker 4: coverage was they did not blitz very much. And if
Speaker 4: you talk about Buffalo, which you just said as well,
Speaker 4: Buffalo has twelve sacks leading the NFL, right, but they
Speaker 4: are the third lowest in pressure from blitzing. So they
Speaker 4: are not doing it because they are sending a lot
Speaker 4: of players. They are doing it because their front four
Speaker 4: is getting to the quarterback. And then, look those are
Speaker 4: all the on the field stats. Let's look at it
Speaker 4: from a betting point of view. You want to fade
Speaker 4: the team that just scored seventy points. There's not a
Speaker 4: lot of data about how teams that score seventy points
Speaker 4: do against the spread the following week. But I can
Speaker 4: tell you when a team scores seventy generally you want
Speaker 4: to go against that team. There is so much public
Speaker 4: sentiment for this team. And look, this is a game
Speaker 4: that is kind of vexing the wise guys a little bit.
Speaker 4: If you look at the data, seventy percent of the
Speaker 4: money is on Buffalo. So when you get money on
Speaker 4: one side, that generally means professional betters like it. But
Speaker 4: the tickets are kind of split fifty to fifty. And
Speaker 4: what's that saying is that people aren't like the wise
Speaker 4: guys who might like Miami aren't rushing in because they
Speaker 4: really don't know what to do with this game, and
Speaker 4: they don't know what to do with this team Miami.
Speaker 4: One wise guy described them to me as a little
Speaker 4: bit like the Matrix full of cheat codes, and so
Speaker 4: they're either betting Buffalo or they're passing.
Speaker 1: My favorite bet of the week is Minnesota minus four
Speaker 1: against Carolina at Carolina. Here's why Carolina has a problem.
Speaker 1: There is nobody to throw to. Mingo may not be
Speaker 1: a bust. He doesn't separate. He's a more talented Nikhil Harry.
Speaker 1: He doesn't separate. Young quarterbacks need people who separate. That's
Speaker 1: why actually CJ. Strouds having a little success his low
Speaker 1: round round draft picks. They got some guys that can
Speaker 1: play so Minnesota. Wouldn't you think of them differently if
Speaker 1: that last pass was a touchdown and not tipped for
Speaker 1: a pick. So they're a little undervalued fos the middle
Speaker 1: of nowhere. Minnesota could have easily won that game, probably
Speaker 1: should have. And Minnesota's got a veteran quarterback and elite weapon.
Speaker 1: They're not running the football well. They matched up pretty well,
Speaker 1: I think against the Chargers a fairly stacked roster. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna lay the four. I'm good with it. I really
Speaker 1: like the Vikings minus four.
Speaker 4: Sharper square kind of a eh like. There's no real
Speaker 4: consensus on this game. It's not a game that folks
Speaker 4: are pining to bet. You're not finding an advantage. It's,
Speaker 4: as we like to say, as you and I like
Speaker 4: to say, it's a corner TV game, right, someone's gonna
Speaker 4: bet it so it'll be on in.
Speaker 3: The sports book.
Speaker 4: But the truth is there's no numbers edge, right and
Speaker 4: the wise guys don't love Minnesota. They don't love the
Speaker 4: they don't love the way they've been playing, they don't
Speaker 4: love that defense at all. They don't like Carolina, they
Speaker 4: don't like Bryce Young, they don't want to bet on
Speaker 4: Andy Dalton they agree with you about the weapons on
Speaker 4: the edge. This game opened at three and a half.
Speaker 4: It's been bet up to four. I would have felt
Speaker 4: like if there was some kind of consensus, it would
Speaker 4: have been on a home underdog and that Colin. That's
Speaker 4: sort of the indicator, right, If you're ever looking for
Speaker 4: signals about who you want to bet on or what
Speaker 4: wise guys might like, if you see a home dog
Speaker 4: and the number moves in the direction of the favorite,
Speaker 4: then you know the wise guys are staying away from
Speaker 4: it because wise guys tend to jump on home underdogs.
Speaker 1: All right, you know I like underdogs. Let me give
Speaker 1: you three that are tasty. Listen. Sam How was overwhelmed,
Speaker 1: completely overwhelmed. Philadelphia is struggling offensively. It may just be
Speaker 1: a Shane Stiken issue. They're not the same offense. They'll win.
Speaker 1: The interior line play here, but the Washington d line
Speaker 1: can play when you get humiliated. I'll take the eight.
Speaker 1: It's a division rival again. Young quarterbacks are hot and cold,
Speaker 1: and I don't care if it's c J sprowd Bryce young.
Speaker 1: Sam Hell was awful the week before he was pretty interesting.
Speaker 1: I think Sam How little course correct. I'll take the
Speaker 1: eight Division rival short week for Philadelphia, Sharper Square totally sharp.
Speaker 4: The Wise guys actually are buyers on Sam Howe. They
Speaker 4: were buyers last week on Sam Howell when he went
Speaker 4: up against Buffalo. They've been really encouraged by what they've
Speaker 4: seen and the way he's been able to handle himself
Speaker 4: in the pocket. There were some throws he had against
Speaker 4: the Broncos two weeks ago that made them sort of
Speaker 4: stand up and take notice and j.
Speaker 3: Great.
Speaker 4: And he had a play where he stepped up in
Speaker 4: the pocket hit Terry McLaurin deep when he was double covered,
Speaker 4: and he put the ball in play and gave him
Speaker 4: a chance to catch it. So the wise guys have
Speaker 4: looked at Sam Howlan and said, Okay, we think he's
Speaker 4: better than maybe we were judging. And look the Eagles.
Speaker 4: I bet the Commanders at plus eight and a half.
Speaker 4: The number actually moved down to eight, it went back
Speaker 4: up to eight and a half. There are some places
Speaker 4: where you can get it at better than eight and
Speaker 4: a half right now. So I'm with you on this game,
Speaker 4: and the wise guys are with you on this game.
Speaker 4: I think there's one thing. It's why betters might want
Speaker 4: to wait and see where they can get the best
Speaker 4: of the number. I think the public is going to
Speaker 4: love Philadelphia. I think when a team wins in a
Speaker 4: primetime game and.
Speaker 3: They looked good, and Eagles did look good.
Speaker 4: In the second half, especially like Jalen Hurts has started
Speaker 4: to figure it out with his new offensive coordinator. There's
Speaker 4: going to be a huge public backing of the Eagles
Speaker 4: in this game. But I don't like betting huge favorites
Speaker 4: in a divisional game. So I'm with you on the Commanders,
Speaker 4: and so are the wise guys.
Speaker 1: So all the odds are provided by draft kings. I
Speaker 1: swear I saw the Patriots getting seven. Maybe I'm wrong.
Speaker 1: It's now six and a half. I still like it.
Speaker 1: This feels ugly and low scoring. The best corner in
Speaker 1: this game three weeks ago was treyvon Dish, Now it's
Speaker 1: Christian Gonzalez. The best pass rusher is still Micah, but
Speaker 1: Judon's having another great year. The best coach. Let's not
Speaker 1: get into it. It's an obvious slam dunk coaching edge,
Speaker 1: and I really I believe this. I think New England's
Speaker 1: actually a pretty good team. I don't think they're explosive.
Speaker 1: I think they missed what we all see a number
Speaker 1: one receiver, but Jude ju Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker running
Speaker 1: game with great coaching. I'm taking the six and a half.
Speaker 1: This thing feels like twenty seventeen, twenty three, twenty That's
Speaker 1: what it feels like to me. Sharper Square.
Speaker 3: Look, the wise guys have bet the Patriots.
Speaker 4: That's why it moved from seven down to six and
Speaker 4: a half. I think at six and a half you're
Speaker 4: kind of playing with fire right because this is a
Speaker 4: game where it could easily end up as a touchdown,
Speaker 4: and at least at seven it's a key number. You're
Speaker 4: getting a push. The debate that's going on about this
Speaker 4: Patriots team is fascinating, and you know, you're always trying
Speaker 4: to drive a wedge between me and my bff co
Speaker 4: host Simon Hunter on the favorites, But this has been
Speaker 4: a game that we had a fierce debate about today.
Speaker 3: I actually think this is a huge get right spot
Speaker 3: for the Cowboys.
Speaker 4: Their red zone against Arizona was terrible. This is an
Speaker 4: opportunity for them to come back and fix it. Dak
Speaker 4: in these spots as a favorite at home as a
Speaker 4: bigger favorite, has performed Well, the problem is everything you
Speaker 4: said about the Patriots is true, and it's why the
Speaker 4: wise guys have bet the Patriots down to six and
Speaker 4: a half.
Speaker 3: Mac Jones might be terrible, and we can.
Speaker 4: Say all we want about he played in a monsoon,
Speaker 4: or he's played really good defenses. He has had plenty
Speaker 4: of opportunities to put the Patriots in good positions with
Speaker 4: one key throw that were available, and you didn't do it.
Speaker 4: So it's a very good chance that he's just not
Speaker 4: very good. And you're betting on a guy who's not
Speaker 4: very good on the road against a team that could
Speaker 4: have a really dynamic offense. Not my favorite bet, I'm
Speaker 4: gonna say that, right.
Speaker 1: I have kind of a belief now that once the
Speaker 1: once the schedule was extended to seventeen games, people were
Speaker 1: playing starters in the preseason even less, and so Week
Speaker 1: one is absurdly unpredictable. The Bills were bad, the Jets
Speaker 1: look good. That's not truth. Take out Week one for Seattle,
Speaker 1: where they had no idea what McVay was doing with
Speaker 1: a new offense. They go to Detroit and beat the Lions,
Speaker 1: the Hammer Carolina, and now they get points at New
Speaker 1: York and New York's kind of beat up. I think
Speaker 1: they're the better team. I think the Rams nobodyne had
Speaker 1: a clue what offense they were going to run. Element
Speaker 1: of surprise what they dominated that game. Since then, Seattle's
Speaker 1: pretty good. Seattle's a good football team that I picked
Speaker 1: against the playoffs that made the playoffs last year. Their
Speaker 1: young players are better. I'm going to take the points
Speaker 1: with Seattle.
Speaker 4: Sharper square an interesting choice. It's a sharp play, but
Speaker 4: not like, oh, oh my god, I'm seeing so much value.
Speaker 3: It's a sharp play because it's a short number.
Speaker 4: Is what you just said about the Giants, like they're
Speaker 4: kind of beat up. There could be regression there. Seattle, actually,
Speaker 4: like you just said, has played better in the following weeks,
Speaker 4: and I think for some reason, there's sort of a
Speaker 4: hangover with Gino. When he doesn't play well, people tend
Speaker 4: to think, oh, Gino's terrible, Whereas if he bounces back,
Speaker 4: he doesn't get the benefit of the doubt the way
Speaker 4: other quarterbacks would. Right right now, Trevor Lawrence has looked terrible.
Speaker 4: If Trevor Lawrence plays great this weekend in London, everyone's
Speaker 4: gonna be like, oh, he's back. No one's gonna think, Oh,
Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence.
Speaker 3: Is still bad. He just had one good game.
Speaker 4: But everyone thinks that about Geno until he has six
Speaker 4: straight games that are really good. So I can't disagree
Speaker 4: with you on this, but definitely not one of my favorites.
Speaker 1: Okay, so then we play the game. Oh, I have
Speaker 1: one more before we play the game.
Speaker 3: Let's hear it.
Speaker 1: So Cleveland minus two and a half at home again
Speaker 1: it's Baltimore. I think Cleveland has the best defense in
Speaker 1: the league. Baltimore's left tackle may play not one hundred percent,
Speaker 1: same with their center. This is Baltimore, their beat up
Speaker 1: in division game. I usually take points. I don't think
Speaker 1: we like Cleveland because of their quarterback and their history.
Speaker 1: This defense is Niners, it's Steelers. It's insane. Baltimore remains
Speaker 1: some new perimeter weapons, new coordinators, still figuring themselves out,
Speaker 1: still players coming back on one hundred percent. I'd swallow
Speaker 1: the two and a half. I'll take Cleveland minus two
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 4: Sharper square totally sharp, but it has to be two
Speaker 4: and a half. At three, nobody's buying, but at two
Speaker 4: and a half, everyone's buying.
Speaker 3: From a professional perspective.
Speaker 4: What you're saying, like this defense is just it's sick,
Speaker 4: Like all the film breakdown you can do. You've probably
Speaker 4: had Cosella on to talk about this, like Miles Garrett
Speaker 4: is playing at a defensive Player of the Year level.
Speaker 4: From the front four to the back line, they are
Speaker 4: just stacked and playing incredibly well. Look, I think they've
Speaker 4: had there have been thirty something possessions against the Browns.
Speaker 4: There's been one trip to the red zone against them,
Speaker 4: Like the Steelers, they didn't get into the red zone.
Speaker 4: It was all defensive touchdowns. Like this defense is insane.
Speaker 4: And Jim Schwartz might have, who has had had great
Speaker 4: career as the defensive coordinator, might have the best level
Speaker 4: of talent that matches his philosophy that he's ever had.
Speaker 4: I agree with everything you said about Baltimore. What's tricky
Speaker 4: about Baltimore And this is one of those things again,
Speaker 4: are you betting what you're seeing on the field? Are
Speaker 4: you betting what history has told you. Lamar Jackson is
Speaker 4: a favorite, terrible. We saw it against the Colts last weekend.
Speaker 4: Lamar Jackson as an underdog, almost unbeatable. John Harbaugh as
Speaker 4: an underdog one of the best coaches in the past
Speaker 4: twenty years. A road division underdog at three you kind
Speaker 4: of got a pass, or take the dog at two
Speaker 4: and a half.
Speaker 3: You're going to take the favorite.
Speaker 1: All right, Now we play the game. I give you
Speaker 1: a game that I want to be talked into, and
Speaker 1: then a game that I totally missed Los Angeles Rams,
Speaker 1: element of surprise game that look great. Since then the
Speaker 1: offense is okay. Another road game. Indianapolis gets Anthony Richardson
Speaker 1: back Shane Steiken's excellent. Their D line and O line
Speaker 1: combos actually pretty good. I think Indy is going to
Speaker 1: be a roller coaster team. But Anthony Richardson actually is
Speaker 1: a young quarterback, takes some time off, watches the game,
Speaker 1: extra time to prep with a great OC. I think
Speaker 1: I would take Indianapolis minus one and a half the Rams.
Speaker 1: Another road trip, short week, go home, come back. Think
Speaker 1: I would take Indy Here, Sharper square.
Speaker 4: I think you want to rethink that you're going to
Speaker 4: want to take the Rams. That's the sharp side. It's
Speaker 4: actually a big, big favorite of the wise guys this week.
Speaker 3: They're all buyers on Matthew Stafford.
Speaker 4: He's actually having a really good year and if you
Speaker 4: look at that game against the Bengals, there's a couple
Speaker 4: of plays that stand out that win against them. You know,
Speaker 4: we've talked about this on the show. We do this
Speaker 4: thing at Action Network called the Luck Rankings, which basically
Speaker 4: takes all of the unpredictable plays and puts them into
Speaker 4: a formula with the predictable plays and tells you, if
Speaker 4: everything was even, what should the score of that game
Speaker 4: been and the Rams would have won that game. And
Speaker 4: the biggest differential between teams that have gotten lucky this
Speaker 4: far in the season and the teams that have gotten
Speaker 4: unlucky this far in the season is between the Rams
Speaker 4: and the Colts in this game. So to me, if
Speaker 4: I just see that, I'm automatically going to play the Rams.
Speaker 4: But the numbers also stack up too. Stafford is a
Speaker 4: better quarterback. This Rams defense is playing better than people expect.
Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson huge fan like, it's Bijon, It's Anthony Richardson,
Speaker 4: and it's Shej Shrapt if you're talking about offensive rookie
Speaker 4: of the Year. But again, it'll be his first game
Speaker 4: back after a concussion. It's not like he's whipping the
Speaker 4: ball downfield. It's sixty yards per attempt, right, so he's
Speaker 4: not blowing it up. I think he's a really good player.
Speaker 4: But I think the Rams as short dogs is the
Speaker 4: play here.
Speaker 1: Well, that's why I call the game to talk me
Speaker 1: into all right, what did I miss? What's sometimes an
Speaker 1: ugly one? I did think about Jacksonville. My guess, I
Speaker 1: thought Jacksonville's the side against Atlanta. That's what it felt.
Speaker 1: That's one of the ones I didn't put in, but
Speaker 1: I thought that's an ugly one. My guess is Jacksonville overseas,
Speaker 1: there's a little pressure on them and they're not really
Speaker 1: up for it. I almost love them playing overseas and like,
Speaker 1: you know what, we're gonna get out of this country,
Speaker 1: go do what we do, and we got really good players.
Speaker 1: Am I right? Am I guessing right here?
Speaker 3: No? No, you're totally right. Like Jacksonville is the side.
Speaker 4: It's the side the wise guy's like, it's sitting there
Speaker 4: at minus three. But yeah, you know, there's a lot
Speaker 4: of history to tell you that in these London games
Speaker 4: you want to take the favorites. There's a lot in
Speaker 4: the field to tell you that you want to take
Speaker 4: the jags here. Look, I think in the first two games,
Speaker 4: Atlanta surprised a lot of people and made people think
Speaker 4: twice because they were able to come back, they were
Speaker 4: able to maintain. And then what you saw last week
Speaker 4: against Detroit, where a lot of wise guys were on
Speaker 4: the Falcons.
Speaker 3: Desmond Ritter just was terrible.
Speaker 4: And so without a quarterback, this is a get right
Speaker 4: spot for Trevor Lawrence and the Jags. So the wise
Speaker 4: guys are going to be playing Jacksonville. But I will
Speaker 4: give you a game that we didn't discuss.
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm a little.
Speaker 4: Surprised you didn't bring it up, because this is a
Speaker 4: perfect spot for you. The Cincinnati Bengals on the road
Speaker 4: at the Tennessee Titans. Tennessee Titans opened at plus two
Speaker 4: and a half. It's gone back and forth. It went
Speaker 4: down to two because the wise guys like the Titans.
Speaker 4: Then the public is coming in on the Bengals because
Speaker 4: they just won in prime time. Look, you've got a
Speaker 4: team whose value is deflated because they just got demolished
Speaker 4: by potentially in historically great.
Speaker 3: Defense in the Browns.
Speaker 4: Right, So that's the Titans, and then a team in
Speaker 4: the Bengals that beat the Rams. The number on that
Speaker 4: game had swung wildly. The Rams opened to six and
Speaker 4: a half point Dogs, got that down all the way
Speaker 4: to two and a half point Dogs because of the
Speaker 4: Borough news Borough plays. He doesn't look great, but he wins.
Speaker 4: Jamar Chase has a breakout game. It's a prime time game.
Speaker 4: You're automatically going to have the public come in on
Speaker 4: that team. Yeah, right, And so all of a sudden,
Speaker 4: you've got a team that the public loves on the
Speaker 4: road against a Tennessee team that is one of the
Speaker 4: best coach teams in the NFL. They've got a really
Speaker 4: good defensive line, they've got a really smart quarterback. As
Speaker 4: much as people don't want to say they like Ryan Tannehill,
Speaker 4: he plays well when he's put in a position to succeed.
Speaker 4: He doesn't make the mistakes. And Mike frable Well is
Speaker 4: a super star as an underdog. Colin, there is one
Speaker 4: coach the past twenty years who is over five hundred
Speaker 4: straight up as an underdog, not covering the spread. I
Speaker 4: mean straight up, he wins as an underdog.
Speaker 3: It's Mike Rabel.
Speaker 4: He's the most profitable coach against the spread as an
Speaker 4: underdog the past twenty years.
Speaker 1: You know, I didn't pick that game because for the
Speaker 1: first time this year, Burrow is playing without a calf restraint,
Speaker 1: like he's now playing, he's practicing, he's back, and I
Speaker 1: don't like betting against Joe when he's back and they
Speaker 1: have to win. This game. Was that was a game
Speaker 1: that Jay McK and I had discussed off air this week,
Speaker 1: and I'm like, and now Burrow's not wearing any calf restraints.
Speaker 1: He's one hundred percent healthy. And by the way, I
Speaker 1: thought he played better in the second half against the Rams,
Speaker 1: calf loosened up a little bit. I'm like, end of
Speaker 1: that game, it was like, is pretty interesting. All right,
Speaker 1: that's an interesting one. So I don't know.
Speaker 4: I betting means doing bad things, Colin, sometimes you got
Speaker 4: to do things.
Speaker 3: That's listen.
Speaker 1: I like Minnesota minus four a lot. You think it's
Speaker 1: a nothing, Burger, I like it a lot. I think
Speaker 1: Minnesota had that tip pass gone in their favor, we
Speaker 1: would think of them differently.
Speaker 2: It's a play.
Speaker 1: It's one play, and Minnesota beat up.
Speaker 3: What do they have?
Speaker 4: They have the uh one of the leading passers in
Speaker 4: the NFL, one of the leading receivers in the NFL,
Speaker 4: and yet they could very much go down as one
Speaker 4: of those teams like the Jeff George lad Atlanta Falcons
Speaker 4: with Andre Risen right where they run up these huge,
Speaker 4: huge numbers. They never scare anybody. Nobody cares about them
Speaker 4: because it's just it's a sugar rush. It's empty calories.
Speaker 4: You want to do something scary, Colin, You want to
Speaker 4: know the number that was just moving today. It's been
Speaker 4: sitting for say five days and Sunday, and today the
Speaker 4: wise guy started pounding it.
Speaker 3: Are you ready? Are you ready? I am New York.
Speaker 4: Jets home underdogs against the Kansas City Chiefs. Tell you
Speaker 4: right now, I'll tell you right now. I bet this
Speaker 4: at the Jets plus ten. It had been in nine
Speaker 4: and a half for most of the week. It bumped
Speaker 4: up to ten. Yesterday I grabbed it went back down
Speaker 4: to nine and a half. I'm not saying I moved
Speaker 4: the number back. I'm just saying after I grabbed the ten,
Speaker 4: it went down to nine and a half. And today
Speaker 4: it's been been steaming in the Jets direction below nine.
Speaker 4: So you want to talk about a game the wise
Speaker 4: guys are on.
Speaker 3: It's the New York Jets.
Speaker 1: Can't do it, can not do it?
Speaker 4: Well?
Speaker 3: Did prudent, not gonna, not gonna.
Speaker 1: Kad Milman CEO Action Net. We're good. See anybody, all right, brother,
Speaker 1: good luck this week. Some thoughts watching the Packers. Well,
Speaker 1: you know, so, if you're a Packer fan and you're
Speaker 1: rooting for Jordan Love, your takeaway could be, Hey, last
Speaker 1: couple of weeks, he's been very solid in the second half.
Speaker 1: He's been a gamer, playing from behind. I like his fight,
Speaker 1: he doesn't quit, He's got good mobility. He got in
Speaker 1: the end zone and threw a left handed pass out
Speaker 1: of the end zone. If you're not a Packer fan
Speaker 1: and you have questions about him, you could say, last
Speaker 1: two weeks he has buried himself in the franchise, getting
Speaker 1: into a big hole, huge deficit playing from behind when
Speaker 1: opposing defenses. Let's be honest. You know Derek Carr got hurt.
Speaker 1: Lion's going to a more conservative mode time clock eating offense,
Speaker 1: maybe play a little less aggressive prevent defense. It depends
Speaker 1: on you know, your perspective. I as I've said before,
Speaker 1: I'm going to give him two Thanksgiving and then I'll
Speaker 1: have a definitive opinion on Jordan Love. My takeaway now
Speaker 1: is he up and down? I don't see a ton
Speaker 1: of special although I think he moves really well. He's
Speaker 1: not overwhelmed. He gets out of trouble, he escapes, he
Speaker 1: doesn't panic. He's more than competent again in this day
Speaker 1: and age. He moves well, good size, nice arm. All
Speaker 1: the elements are there tonight. The Detroit lines are a
Speaker 1: better football team. Jared Goff's a better quarterback. He was
Speaker 1: drafted number one. He was a better high school, college
Speaker 1: and so far pro quarterback than Jordan Love. They controlled
Speaker 1: the game. They have a better offensive line. I don't
Speaker 1: want to hear Packers were injured. You get to week four,
Speaker 1: five six in the NFL, everybody's hurt. You know, everybody's
Speaker 1: banged up. Detroit's a better football team. This has been
Speaker 1: a laughing stock of franchise for years. And it's very
Speaker 1: possible if golf stays in Detroit, or they draft another
Speaker 1: quarterback and get it right, they're going to be a
Speaker 1: very good team for several years. They have drafted well.
Speaker 1: They have very good players. They're not having to pay yet. Linebackers,
Speaker 1: tight end and rushers, tackles. They've got some dudes. And
Speaker 1: you know, for years and years, you know, you never
Speaker 1: really trusted the ownership in the front office. I really
Speaker 1: like the executive suite for the Lions. I like their drafts.
Speaker 1: They've taken some swings players that I watched a lot
Speaker 1: of in college. Amor On Saint Brown is a much
Speaker 1: better pro than I thought he would be. I watched
Speaker 1: every USC game of note that he played in. He's
Speaker 1: a better pro than I thought he would be. So
Speaker 1: I think Detroit just a better team. I think they
Speaker 1: exhibited it again tonight. I think you know, they lost
Speaker 1: in over a time to Seattle, but they beat Kansas
Speaker 1: City a narrowhead. They dominate the Packers at Lambeau. It's
Speaker 1: a good football team and they got really good players.
Speaker 1: So you know, they played hard under Dan Campbell last year,
Speaker 1: but they were just missing a couple elements. They've shored
Speaker 1: up the defense. They're not a great defense, but they're
Speaker 1: a better defense. And I like what I see. You know,
Speaker 1: I think Jordan loves fine to this point. Nothing you see.
Speaker 1: He doesn't feel overwhelmed like Zach Wilson. He's not regularly
Speaker 1: inaccurate like justin fields. There's nothing here that would mortify me.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 1: Some of this is just he needs snaps. He needs games,
Speaker 1: he needs snaps. He's been uneven good half, bad half,
Speaker 1: good half, bad half. That's the sign of a young quarterback.
Speaker 1: So you can sit on the bench for as long
Speaker 1: as you want. Aaron Rodgers first year, he was six
Speaker 1: and ten and then things even out. It's very rare
Speaker 1: when a young quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a great talent.
Speaker 1: He has bad halfs, bad quarters, bad games. So I
Speaker 1: think if you're a Packer optimist, you have to like
Speaker 1: what you see with Jordan Love. You look at the
Speaker 1: first half the last two weeks as better teams. Saints
Speaker 1: for a better team. They have a better defense than
Speaker 1: Green Bay. I think the Lions have a better roster,
Speaker 1: all right. But I nothing I see with Jordan Love
Speaker 1: would would deeply concern me. I'm looking for some it's
Speaker 1: some special maybe that develops through confidence, and but I
Speaker 1: think in house. I talked to Tyler Dunn, somebody who's
Speaker 1: covered the Packers now on his own platform, used to
Speaker 1: work for the Milwaukee Journal, and he said, in house,
Speaker 1: there's a feeling that they're a little ahead of schedule.
Speaker 1: They feel pretty good about it. Lions ran the ball
Speaker 1: well better than the Packers did, more yards more rushing
Speaker 1: yards that helped a lot. Again, Packers are a little
Speaker 1: beat up, but you know, I'm on a little bit
Speaker 1: of a lucky streak here so far in the NFC.
Speaker 1: The teams I had making the playoffs Philadelphia, Dallas, Atlanta, Saints.
Speaker 1: Only the Lions in the NFC North in Seattle and
Speaker 1: San Francisco right now would make the playoffs seven for
Speaker 1: seven AFC. I'm waiting on Joe Burrow's calf to heel.
Speaker 1: And I don't know what's going on with the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: I had them as a possible number one seed. They're
Speaker 1: a mess. I do think they'll get healthy against Atlanta
Speaker 1: this weekend overseas, but all in all, better team one.
Speaker 1: It's nice to see the Lions win, you know. I mean,
Speaker 1: like last year they were close, but you felt like,
Speaker 1: you know what, they have to win one way, they
Speaker 1: have to outscore people. Tonight they scored, but didn't necessarily
Speaker 1: have to outscore people. I thought they had a couple
Speaker 1: of calls go against them in the game. Then the
Speaker 1: Packers had that weird call and special teams on the
Speaker 1: field goal go against them. All evens out, but you know,
Speaker 1: you go to bed tonight, you wake up tomorrow and
Speaker 1: you think about Jordan Love. All Right, we got something here,
Speaker 1: We're okay, We're fine. Doesn't mean you don't draft a
Speaker 1: quarterback in this draft. I wouldn't draft them in the
Speaker 1: first round. The Packers don't have huge needs. I really
Speaker 1: do like their tight ends and the receivers. I really
Speaker 1: think Green Bay is well positioned. But this is the
Speaker 1: youngest team in the NFL, so I think you have
Speaker 1: to come in with you know, Jordan loves and experienced,
Speaker 1: incredibly young roster. You gotta temper your expectations this year.
Speaker 1: Right now, Detroit's on like the second third year of
Speaker 1: this group. I think that ahead of Green Bay. I
Speaker 1: think this team needs the age, and I think they'll
Speaker 1: age pretty well. So I like the journey. I like
Speaker 1: watching Jordan Love. It's fun. There's no indignity losing to
Speaker 1: a really good, underrated quarterback in Jared Goff. I don't
Speaker 1: get it. You can't tell me there's twelve guys in
Speaker 1: the NFL better than Jared Goff. I don't believe it.
Speaker 1: I think he throws one of the best balls in
Speaker 1: the league. They have a great online Jared Goff's history
Speaker 1: is when he has time to throw. He's good. He
Speaker 1: made some really really slick throws tonight. I like him.
Speaker 1: You know that. I always have the volume