Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. Have a great show for
Speaker 1: everybody today.
Speaker 4: Where we have Prissel a load to get to.
Speaker 2: You will not be surprised to learn Marco Rubio claiming
Speaker 2: that the preemptive threat against the US was actually from Israel.
Speaker 2: I'm not kidding. No, we will break you off, and
Speaker 2: not just him, Mike Johnson too. I mean this is
Speaker 2: crazy stuff that they're saying this out loud. Break all
Speaker 2: of that down for you, baby. Was on Fox News
Speaker 2: last night celebrating, of course, the golf States are in chaos.
Speaker 2: Our embassies are being attacked. Par Arcie is going to
Speaker 2: join to break down what is going on. Scott Horton
Speaker 2: is also going to join to break down his larger
Speaker 2: historical perspective of how.
Speaker 4: We got to this place.
Speaker 2: Media is propagandizing during their pro war propaganda on overtime.
Speaker 2: We've got some low lights for you there, and we're
Speaker 2: going to take a little trip back and the very
Speaker 2: recent trip back down memory lane of all the lies
Speaker 2: that we're told from Jade Vance and Tulci Gabber and
Speaker 2: An RFK Junior and Steven Miller and Donald Trump himself
Speaker 2: about how they did not want war with Iran, and
Speaker 2: yet here we are. Also Ryan and I are going
Speaker 2: to record an interview with kat Abogazella. You'll recall last
Speaker 2: week Ryan had some reporting about her foreign policy views,
Speaker 2: so we thought the best thing to do would be
Speaker 2: to have her on and just ask her directly what
Speaker 2: she thinks about various issues, including the Iran war of course,
Speaker 2: so we will have that for.
Speaker 4: You as well.
Speaker 3: I'm interested to follow that been a lot of drama
Speaker 3: before the Iran war entire out number.
Speaker 4: Rian's always starting some shit, you know.
Speaker 3: We love Ryan Ran is and remains the goat no
Speaker 3: matter what his detractors may say. Thank you to everybody
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Speaker 1: So really thank you.
Speaker 3: We have millions of people who have been joining the
Speaker 3: show literally just in the last seventy two hours, very
Speaker 3: glad to have you, and then untold number as well
Speaker 3: who joined us for our Epstein coverage, So the show
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Speaker 3: We want to say thank you, and then we also
Speaker 3: want to say thank you to our existing viewers on
Speaker 3: our podcast listeners, our premium subscribers of course more than others,
Speaker 3: who enable all of our work to be able to
Speaker 3: bring it to you as all of this crazy stuff
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Speaker 3: It really helps other people find the show. But with that,
Speaker 3: let's go ahead and kick it off with what Donald
Speaker 3: Trump and his administration are saying is the reason why
Speaker 3: that we are in this war in the first place.
Speaker 3: You if I said it three days ago, it would
Speaker 3: have been the anti Semitic conspiracy, And now it is
Speaker 3: coming out of the mouth of the United States Secretary
Speaker 3: of State.
Speaker 4: That's right.
Speaker 2: So not only Marco Rubio, but also Mike Johnson saying
Speaker 2: that the reason, because everyone's saying why are we doing this?
Speaker 2: That the reason, according to them, is that Israel is
Speaker 2: going to strike around no matter what that that would
Speaker 2: put our US service members at risk, and so we
Speaker 2: calculated while we may as well be involved, because maybe
Speaker 2: that will help us to be able to control the outcome. Here,
Speaker 2: let's go ahead and take a listen to how they
Speaker 2: framed that.
Speaker 5: Why now, Well, there's two reasons why now. The first
Speaker 5: is it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under
Speaker 5: attack by anyone, the United States or Israel or anyone,
Speaker 5: they were going to respond and respond against the United States.
Speaker 5: The third is the assessment that was made that if
Speaker 5: we stood and waited for that attack to come first
Speaker 5: before we get them, we would suffer much higher casualties,
Speaker 5: and so the President made the very wise decision. We
Speaker 5: knew that there was going to be an Israeli action,
Speaker 5: we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces,
Speaker 5: and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after
Speaker 5: them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher
Speaker 5: casualties and perhaps even high those killed, And then we
Speaker 5: would all be here answering questions about why we knew that.
Speaker 6: Indeed, they had to evaluate the threats to the US,
Speaker 6: to our troops, to our installations, to our assets in
Speaker 6: the region and beyond, and they determined, because of the
Speaker 6: exquisite intelligence that we had that if Israel fired upon Iran,
Speaker 6: it took action against Iran to take out the missiles,
Speaker 6: then they would have immediately retaliated against US personnel and assets.
Speaker 6: The consequences of inaction on our part would have been
Speaker 6: could have been devastating. We don't know at what magnitude,
Speaker 6: but you can assume, because it is common sense that
Speaker 6: if Iran had begun to fire all of their missile
Speaker 6: arsenal short and in mid range missiles at our personnel
Speaker 6: and our assets and our installations, we would have suffered
Speaker 6: staggering losses.
Speaker 4: I mean sager.
Speaker 2: Taken at face value, this is utterly humiliating and insane
Speaker 2: and obviously begs one really clear question, which is okay,
Speaker 2: If Israel striking Iran was going to create all of
Speaker 2: these problems and put our service members at risk, why
Speaker 2: don't we stop Israel from striking Iran?
Speaker 4: This is our client state.
Speaker 2: They can't function without our protection, our weaponry, our support, etc.
Speaker 2: So why did we just get coerced into this rather
Speaker 2: than going to our client vassal state and saying, no,
Speaker 2: you're not going to strike Iran because this is against
Speaker 2: our interests.
Speaker 3: We need to This is the most extraordinary admission probably
Speaker 3: in modern history by the United States Secretary of State.
Speaker 3: They claimed that this war was preemptive, and it was
Speaker 3: preemptive in the sense that we had to preempt Iranian
Speaker 3: reaction to Israel's preemption. Are you here with me now?
Speaker 3: We are not a sovereignty is threat threat. We have
Speaker 3: sacrificed our sovereignty. We are a non sovereign nation. If
Speaker 3: the world's superpower is subject to a country the size
Speaker 3: of New Jersey, which basically makes nothing and is controlling
Speaker 3: our politicians such that, despite being the largest single recipient
Speaker 3: of military aid in the history of the United States,
Speaker 3: that we are not capable of telling them no. And
Speaker 3: it is now documented history from the New York Times
Speaker 3: now to the open mouth of the comments of the
Speaker 3: U s Secretary of State and the Speaker of the
Speaker 3: House that.
Speaker 1: This is Israel's war. Israel's war.
Speaker 3: Now, Donald Trump has agency, but he never once was
Speaker 3: able apparently it even entered his mind to say, Hey,
Speaker 3: you're not going to do that. We're going to cut
Speaker 3: off weapons. We're going to make you a global pariah,
Speaker 3: and good luck defending yourself without all of our missile
Speaker 3: defense systems. That never once entered their minds. And you
Speaker 3: know what I also I was thinking about. You have
Speaker 3: to think even the Iranians. Iranian strategic calculus was, guys,
Speaker 3: they won't want to hit us, or Israel's not going
Speaker 3: to want to hit us because we'll hit US bases.
Speaker 3: And the theory behind that was by threatening US basis,
Speaker 3: it would mean that we would constrain or restrain Israel
Speaker 3: from striking them from their belliger inaction. They never could
Speaker 3: have imagined the world where the client state is actually
Speaker 3: dictating and dragging policy of the United States and the
Speaker 3: global Empire actually enter the war on their very behalf.
Speaker 1: We are beyond screwed.
Speaker 3: Also, at a certain point, is it even useful to
Speaker 3: play comments here? At this point from Donald Trump, Israel's
Speaker 3: in the driver's seat. They're the ones who killed Iatola Kamani.
Speaker 3: We're the ones, apparently who gave them the intelligence. There
Speaker 3: are the ones who do it. All of the strikes
Speaker 3: now so far are for regime collapse. The ingredients for
Speaker 3: civil war are happening. They're already job bb Netanyahu got
Speaker 3: Donald Trump, maybe got Donald Trump made Donald Trump, I
Speaker 3: don't know, got Donald Trump on the phone with a
Speaker 3: bunch of Kurdish leaders in Iraq and they're like, hey,
Speaker 3: go on in there, let's let's stoke a little civilrties.
Speaker 2: This hill border guards they killed all the come in
Speaker 2: over the Portvity is.
Speaker 3: Really stressed by their own admission they are new. They're
Speaker 3: going after and blowing up all the police stations. You
Speaker 3: only do that to collapse the civil society. And they're
Speaker 3: in the country.
Speaker 2: Nine different hospitals, obviously murdered those schoolgirls, et cetera. And
Speaker 2: here's the thing is, you know, I keep bringing up
Speaker 2: the Epstein files because you have to look at this
Speaker 2: and go, Okay, this is insane. You know, Trump clearly
Speaker 2: had resistant reluctance to go into a full blown war
Speaker 2: with a run, and yet nevertheless he did it. And
Speaker 2: it never occurred to him, or it never seemed to
Speaker 2: be an option to him to go tos Roun and
Speaker 2: say no, we will cut you off.
Speaker 4: Here will be the you know, here will be the reaper.
Speaker 2: This is something that previous American presidents have been able
Speaker 2: to do. It's not like Israel's so out of control
Speaker 2: and they have so much autonomy that they're able to
Speaker 2: do all of these things on there. No, they're fully
Speaker 2: and completely enabled by us. So why is that not
Speaker 2: an option on the table? Why and you have I mean,
Speaker 2: you can't help but ask yourself. Maybe it is Epstein files, right?
Speaker 2: Is it just the money from Miriam Addelson? Like there's
Speaker 2: lots of people who give Trump money for his campaign.
Speaker 2: There's all sorts of interests that are you know, at
Speaker 2: filling his both campaign and personal coffers with cash. So
Speaker 2: that really it, it's just about the Israel lobby cash.
Speaker 2: There's some piece of this that is missing that just
Speaker 2: does not add up. Because listen, Donald Trump is extremely belligerent, right,
Speaker 2: He's bombed more countries in you know, his presidency than
Speaker 2: like any other American president. He has no problem taking
Speaker 2: a hawkish military action. But it did seem like the
Speaker 2: one thing that he was reluctant to do was get
Speaker 2: embroiled in a long, large scale war, particularly in the
Speaker 2: Middle East. And yet here we are and you've got
Speaker 2: the Secretary of State saying, well, Israel made us do it.
Speaker 2: It does not add up. It does not make sense.
Speaker 2: There is some piece of this that is missing. And
Speaker 2: so you cannot call people crazy when they look at
Speaker 2: the Epstein files, cover up and go, I.
Speaker 4: Don't know, maybe maybe that's it. Maybe that's what's going
Speaker 4: on here.
Speaker 3: Yeah, the to quote Dave Smith, think about this, George W.
Speaker 3: Bush had the wisdom not to do what Donald Trump
Speaker 3: is doing. I mean I said it before, you're going
Speaker 3: to launch a so called war of choice, preemption, whatever
Speaker 3: you want to call it, now admitting openly nin with
Speaker 3: ten months or whatever before the midterm elections in your
Speaker 3: first year. If we think back to the history of
Speaker 3: the Bush presidency, we're we're all on the right track.
Speaker 3: You've got an unpopular war in the Middle East. You're
Speaker 3: going to have what a w call the two thousand
Speaker 3: and six midterms a thumping?
Speaker 1: Is that what he said? It's a thumping whenever they democraticking?
Speaker 1: And then yeah, that.
Speaker 3: Was Obama's Yeah, I think I think a Bush called
Speaker 3: it a thumping. Then we have a massive financial crash.
Speaker 1: So we're on track. Okay, oh yeah, we're all on track.
Speaker 2: This thing is is down of control. I mean, we've
Speaker 2: got embassies that are being attacked. We're telling Americans now
Speaker 2: in twelve different countries in the region, like, oh, use
Speaker 2: commercial means and get out of the region. Well, there
Speaker 2: are no commercial means. The air lines are all shut down.
Speaker 2: The airports are all virtually shut down. You know, there
Speaker 2: was an article yesterday about how Americans, mostly wealthy Americans,
Speaker 2: and the UAE, we're trying to get the heck out
Speaker 2: of Dubai and there's no way to get out of
Speaker 2: that area. The busiest airport in the entire world, and
Speaker 2: it's all but closed down. So you've got this thing
Speaker 2: already completely spiraling out of control. And you know, apparently
Speaker 2: they thought maybe if we take out the Ayatola and
Speaker 2: we hit them pretty hard in the front, maybe this
Speaker 2: whole thing will collapse and the IRGC will just hold
Speaker 2: a hand over their arms and we can declare mission accomplish.
Speaker 2: This is delusional, obviously, and now they realize this is delusional,
Speaker 2: which is why Donald Trump is not going out and
Speaker 2: talking to anybody. Yesterday sent he said, oh, everybody, go
Speaker 2: listen to beb Nanyahu on Fox News because apparently this
Speaker 2: is the person who's actually calling the shop.
Speaker 3: We'll get to that, but yeah, Trump is out to
Speaker 3: lunch like completely. Let's take a listen to him yesterday
Speaker 3: at the White House during a Medal of Honor ceremony.
Speaker 1: We're in he.
Speaker 3: Spent I watched the entire thing. He began with maybe
Speaker 3: a four minute segment on Iran, where he was extremely tired,
Speaker 3: he seemed distracted, his heart really didn't seem in it
Speaker 3: at all, and he immediately pivoted to start talking about
Speaker 3: the fucking ballroom.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 7: Our objectives are clear. First, were destroying orens missile capabilities,
Speaker 7: and you see that happening on an hourly basis, and
Speaker 7: their capacity to produce brand new ones and pretty good
Speaker 7: ones they make. Second, we're annihilating their navy. We've knocked
Speaker 7: out already ten ships. They're at the bottom of the c. Third,
Speaker 7: we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of TARA
Speaker 7: can never obtain a nuclear weapon, never going to have
Speaker 7: a nuclear weapon. We're already substantially ahead of our time projections.
Speaker 7: But whatever the time is, it's okay. Whatever it takes,
Speaker 7: we will always and we have right from the beginning,
Speaker 7: we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability
Speaker 7: to go far longer than that.
Speaker 8: We'll do it.
Speaker 7: Whatever somebody said today, they said, oh, well, the president
Speaker 7: wants to do it really quickly. After that, he'll get bored.
Speaker 7: I don't get bored. There's nothing boring about this to
Speaker 7: that nice drape. When that comes down right now, you
Speaker 7: see a very very deep hole. But in about a
Speaker 7: year and a half from now, you're going to see
Speaker 7: a very very beautiful building. And there's your entrance to
Speaker 7: it right there. In fact, it looks so nice, I
Speaker 7: don't think i'll even I think I'll save money on
Speaker 7: the doors, because you can't get more beautiful than that.
Speaker 7: I picked those drapes in my first term. I always
Speaker 7: like gold. But I think we can and save a
Speaker 7: lot of money. I just saved I just saved curtains.
Speaker 7: But and it will be It'll be spectacular, be the
Speaker 7: most beautiful ballroom. I believe it's because I built many
Speaker 7: a ballroom.
Speaker 8: I believe it's.
Speaker 7: Going to be the most beautiful ballroom.
Speaker 1: That was not an unfair cut. That literally happened.
Speaker 3: I watched the entire thing, not joking, like we only
Speaker 3: spared you about two to three minutes in between Iran
Speaker 3: and all of that. In addition, by the way, Trump
Speaker 3: continues this thing where he'll take his and will answer
Speaker 3: his cell phone for anybody who calls. Let's put this
Speaker 3: up here on the screen from the New York Post
Speaker 3: where yesterday he refused to rule out sending US troops
Speaker 3: to Iran if necessary, saying, quote, I don't have the
Speaker 3: YIPS with respective boots on the ground. Like every president
Speaker 3: says there will be no boots, I don't say it,
Speaker 3: Trump said after launching strike Saturday to decapitate Iran's military
Speaker 3: and political leadership. I say, probably don't need them or
Speaker 3: if they were necessary. So that is the situation as
Speaker 3: we currently have it. And Crystal, you know that civil
Speaker 3: war point that we made earlier. At every time that
Speaker 3: we have to try and launch some insurgency to over
Speaker 3: throw or destabilize a government, there are US special forces
Speaker 3: that accompany them on the ground. And look, no hate
Speaker 3: to the Kurds. You know they've been screwed around by
Speaker 3: the United States now probably decades. But we did a
Speaker 3: lot of work together in the counter Isis campaign, So
Speaker 3: these forces know exactly how to work together as a
Speaker 3: basin air bill, right, you know where they are, and look.
Speaker 1: It's all ready to go.
Speaker 3: The weapons are there, will be the most well armed
Speaker 3: insurgents in history, that's all. They need a little bit
Speaker 3: of a forward deployment from a couple special advisors. It's
Speaker 3: going to look like the special operations that went in
Speaker 3: in October two thousand and one with the Taliban, or
Speaker 3: to defeat the Taliban.
Speaker 1: That's the theory at least.
Speaker 3: But that is the recipe for quagmire, for disaster, for
Speaker 3: civil war, for collapse, and that is Look, if we
Speaker 3: are to acknowledged this is Israel's war. It is almost
Speaker 3: irrelevant to what Donald Trump wants. Only he can pull
Speaker 3: the plug. At least he did in the Twelve Day War.
Speaker 3: But of course that was just a lead up to
Speaker 3: do this entire thing.
Speaker 4: It was a pause.
Speaker 2: Then we tried all of the internal you know, let's
Speaker 2: collapse therency, let's stoke the protests, you know, let's see
Speaker 2: if that will work. And then when that failed, then
Speaker 2: we're back to a war. And yeah, I mean you
Speaker 2: and with all of them, obviously they all lie, you know,
Speaker 2: when if they're breathing, they're lying.
Speaker 4: But you can look at what they're doing.
Speaker 2: And to your point, we see these reporting about oh,
Speaker 2: let's let's talk to the Kurds, let's kill the border
Speaker 2: guards and you know, open up that border so people
Speaker 2: can flood in. And then you also see in the
Speaker 2: targeting they targeted Akmadnazad, you know, previous president of Iran.
Speaker 2: They targeted a jailed opposition leader who was under house arrest,
Speaker 2: so they wanted to make sure that this actually wasn't
Speaker 2: a regime change, that there was no other person who
Speaker 2: had any sort of legitimate base of support who could
Speaker 2: come in and take the reins, because Israel's goal is
Speaker 2: regime collapse.
Speaker 4: They don't want a strong Iran.
Speaker 2: They want they don't I apparently don't believe they can
Speaker 2: really successfully install a puppet, so they just want it
Speaker 2: to be chaos, death, insanity, civil war, et cetera, so
Speaker 2: that they can, you know, extend their region regional hegemony.
Speaker 2: With that being said, we've got a lot more to
Speaker 2: get to and we've got doctor Tree to Parsi standing by,
Speaker 2: so let's go ahead and bring him in. All right, everyone,
Speaker 2: we are fortunate to be joined by front of the show,
Speaker 2: doctor Tree to Parcy of.
Speaker 4: The Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft.
Speaker 1: Great to see, Sir good, Deseasir good to be with
Speaker 1: you guys.
Speaker 2: So we just played for the audience, Marco Ruvio and
Speaker 2: Mike Johnson both saying no, the imminent threat came from
Speaker 2: the fact that we knew Israel was going to attack Iran.
Speaker 2: Regardless of whether we involved ourselves, we knew that would
Speaker 2: put our US service members at risk. Therefore, we felt
Speaker 2: compelled to strike Iran first. Your reaction to those extraordinary revelations.
Speaker 8: I'm delighted that he has spelled it out that this
Speaker 8: is the reason that, at the end of the day,
Speaker 8: the Israelis have been driving the boat on this one,
Speaker 8: and that the United States has followed their lead and
Speaker 8: let them decide when the US goes to war and
Speaker 8: when it doesn't. This is, at the end of the day,
Speaker 8: a decision they made. They made a decision to let
Speaker 8: the Israelis decide, and now they're trying to hide behind
Speaker 8: that as if is some sort of a self defense.
Speaker 8: At this point, there's no speculation value any longer as
Speaker 8: to whether that Israel is the driving force behind this
Speaker 8: or not. It is coming out of the mouth of Rubio,
Speaker 8: and it's coming out of the mouth of the Speaker
Speaker 8: of the House as well. It is now clear this
Speaker 8: is what they decided. This is not by any definition
Speaker 8: America first. This is Israel first.
Speaker 3: This is probably the most consequential Kinsley gaff in American
Speaker 3: history where they accidentally tell the trilogy, and that is
Speaker 3: one where I really don't even know where to go
Speaker 3: from here. I do think it is worth noting that
Speaker 3: the administration has laid out the most maximalist goals and
Speaker 3: it's now making a mockery of America. First, let's say
Speaker 3: put a six let's say up there on the screen.
Speaker 1: I really loved this exchange. So Matt wall Show over
Speaker 1: at the Daily Wire.
Speaker 3: He put out a tweet, He's like, I've got some
Speaker 3: questions about this whole operation, and Press Secretary Caroline Levitt
Speaker 3: released a statement and said, let me reiterate all of
Speaker 3: the objectives. We're going to destroy the regime's missile raise
Speaker 3: our missile industry to the ground. We're going to annihilate
Speaker 3: the navy. We're going to ensure the regime's terrorist proxies
Speaker 3: can no longer operate. We will stop them from making
Speaker 3: and using IEDs and when, by the way, ID literally
Speaker 3: means improvised, So okay, guarantee that Iran can never obtain
Speaker 3: a nuclear weapon. Preventing the regime from threatening America killing
Speaker 3: terrorists is good.
Speaker 1: And there's a long continued diet tribe.
Speaker 3: I was like, you know, whenever she was meant to
Speaker 3: address concerns about regime change. This is a regime change manifesto.
Speaker 3: I don't see any way that there could be a
Speaker 3: realistic off ramp without effective surrender from the Trump administration.
Speaker 1: Curious for your review.
Speaker 8: So here's what I think has happened. I think, first
Speaker 8: of all, you're right. But here's I think how we
Speaker 8: got there. The administration was led by these Raelis to
Speaker 8: believe that this is going to be a very simple operation.
Speaker 8: They thought that by Sunday evening this would have been
Speaker 8: wrapped up, that the regime would have imploded as a
Speaker 8: result of the assassination of the Supreme Leader. That obviously
Speaker 8: did not work. Twice reportedly, perhaps even three times, from
Speaker 8: preached out and trying to see if he could get
Speaker 8: a ceasefire from the Vannius. The Vannius rejected it, and
Speaker 8: I can go into as to why the Iranians rejected it.
Speaker 8: So now they're stuck in a situation in which they
Speaker 8: understand that the Iranian game plan is to prolong this
Speaker 8: and expand this war and play to what their relative
Speaker 8: strength is, which is they can withstand this, whereas Trump
Speaker 8: probably cannot, not militarily but politically, he cannot withstand this.
Speaker 8: For a couple of weeks. So now the Trump administration
Speaker 8: is trying to essentially convince the Iranians that no, no, no, no,
Speaker 8: the United States is more than ready to withstand this
Speaker 8: for a long time. He suddenly said four weeks and
Speaker 8: that now as a result of the Iranians refusing a ceasefire,
Speaker 8: he is going even more maximalism. So he is throwing
Speaker 8: good money after bad money after his first completely unrealistic
Speaker 8: expectation was not met. And this is the very definition
Speaker 8: of losing control. We're not even two or three days
Speaker 8: into the war and it's already clear they have lost control.
Speaker 8: Look at how they are grasping for straws, not just
Speaker 8: to find what objectives they should have, but also how
Speaker 8: to justify them. And in that effort they have gone
Speaker 8: as far as to say that Iran is at war
Speaker 8: with civilization, to actually admitting that all of this was
Speaker 8: done because Israel decided it was time to go there.
Speaker 2: So I want to go back to why Trump let
Speaker 2: himself be led around by the nose by Israel, Because
Speaker 2: clearly there was some reluctance from the administration. You know,
Speaker 2: they were concerned you had the top military brass here
Speaker 2: leaking to basically every newspaper they could get a hold
Speaker 2: of to say, this is a real problem. We are
Speaker 2: not ready, there's an interceptor issue, this is not going
Speaker 2: to go well, there's tremendous risks here.
Speaker 4: And yet, in.
Speaker 2: Spite of all of that, and in spite of all
Speaker 2: of the very clear campaign promises that you know, we're
Speaker 2: going to play them later, he made Jadvan's made, Toulci
Speaker 2: Gabbard made RFK junior maid Steven Miller made like every
Speaker 2: top person in this administration said oh, of course, we're
Speaker 2: not going to go to war with Iran. In spite
Speaker 2: of all of that, he still ends up making the
Speaker 2: decision to do Israel's bidding.
Speaker 4: Like, what can explain that?
Speaker 2: Is it just the power of the Israel Is that
Speaker 2: Miriam Addelson money? Like how does this calculation get made
Speaker 2: when you have so many people, from the political people
Speaker 2: to the military people, warning that this is going to
Speaker 2: be a disaster.
Speaker 8: It's really difficult to explain that. I absolutely cannot claim
Speaker 8: to have an answer. I think a part of the answer, though,
Speaker 8: is he has been lulled into this belief that everything
Speaker 8: he has done has been an absolutely amazing success, and
Speaker 8: everything he would did was in contradiction to the conventional
Speaker 8: wisdom and their advice. They told him that he can't
Speaker 8: move the embassy. He did, nothing happen. They told him
Speaker 8: that he couldn't recognize the Golan highs. He did, nothing happen.
Speaker 8: They told him, you can't kill Suleimani. He did, in
Speaker 8: his view, nothing happened. They told him that he can't
Speaker 8: take out Foordo. He did. In his view, nothing happened.
Speaker 8: And then of course he did Venezuela. He's on this
Speaker 8: massive sugar high, the mother of all sugar highs. It's
Speaker 8: easier for the Israelis under those circumstances to tell him, Look,
Speaker 8: the Iranians are just so weak. All you need to
Speaker 8: do is push a little bit. You're going to be
Speaker 8: the hero. You're going to be the president that finally
Speaker 8: puts an end to this regime. Everyone said that you
Speaker 8: can't do it. That's precisely why you should do it,
Speaker 8: because only you can prove them wrong.
Speaker 2: So what you may see, maybe they mocked up a
Speaker 2: newspaper cover like us, or I.
Speaker 8: Mean, they played to his psychology. The Aonians did not.
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, right, and we shouldn't we should say that is,
Speaker 3: we should fault to their negotiating team as well. But
Speaker 3: now we are where we are, and so you know,
Speaker 3: what do you see? You said that the Iranians have
Speaker 3: rejected two, maybe three diplomatic overtures from the Trump administration.
Speaker 3: What is the internal logic inside of the regime right now?
Speaker 3: It seems pretty clear that they expected to take mass
Speaker 3: casualties at the top, They have decentralized military command. What
Speaker 3: is their internal assessment right now? From far as you
Speaker 3: can tell, from how they're doing and for what they're planning.
Speaker 8: The first thing we have to say to truly understand
Speaker 8: how they're thinking is that they truly unlike these Raelis
Speaker 8: who oftentimes throughout and say, oh, this is existential. For them,
Speaker 8: this truly is existential, and this is why they're making
Speaker 8: the decision of the way they're making it. They believe
Speaker 8: that a premature ceasefire, one in which after the US
Speaker 8: has scored a major victory, if they were to accept it,
Speaker 8: all it would do. It would allow the US and
Speaker 8: Israel to regroup, remobilize, and then six months later relaunch
Speaker 8: a war. If there's to be a ceasefire, it has
Speaker 8: to be a prolonged and durable one. The only way
Speaker 8: the ceasefire could be durable, they believe, is if this
Speaker 8: war ends up being tremendously costly to all sides, so
Speaker 8: that all sides believe it was a mistake to start it,
Speaker 8: and as a result, believe it would be a mistake
Speaker 8: to restart it if they agreed to a ceasefire too
Speaker 8: quickly without that cost actually being felt. They believe that
Speaker 8: it will only give the other side, the US and Israel,
Speaker 8: time to be able to regroup and then once again attack, Yvonne.
Speaker 8: This is the conclusion they drew after agreeing to ceasefire
Speaker 8: in June. Many of them believe that it was premature.
Speaker 8: Many of them believe that these Radis were in a very,
Speaker 8: very bad situation because they had run out of interceptors,
Speaker 8: and it was a mistake for the Iranians to agree
Speaker 8: to that ceasefire and they're paying for that mistake now.
Speaker 2: I mean, that was another incredible moment for Rubio as
Speaker 2: he also talked about that interceptor you'd made it. Yeah,
Speaker 2: he talked about, you know, they've got these drones and
Speaker 2: they're very inexpensive, and meanwhile we're shooting all these intercepts
Speaker 2: or we can't. They can make the drones much more
Speaker 2: quickly than we can make the interceptors. It's like, okay,
Speaker 2: then why are we doing this if that's not thing.
Speaker 8: Once you're in this situation and you recognize that logic,
Speaker 8: which they should have recognized before, it actually pushes them
Speaker 8: to go all out as well. And that is what
Speaker 8: I think we're going to see in the next couple
Speaker 8: of days. Trump is going to.
Speaker 2: Throw it where about what you yeah, tell me more
Speaker 2: about what you mean by that, And just to you know,
Speaker 2: as a little preamble here, we can put a nine
Speaker 2: up on the screen. We now know at least six
Speaker 2: Americans have been killed in action, at least eighteen have
Speaker 2: been seriously wounded. You have US embassies that are being
Speaker 2: attacked in a number of countries, both by Iran and
Speaker 2: also by local people. We know now we have confirmation
Speaker 2: that US Marines we're shooting at civilian rioters at the
Speaker 2: US embassy in Karachi in Pakistan. We can put a
Speaker 2: eleven up on the screen. So already this straight up
Speaker 2: horror moves was sort of de facto closed because the
Speaker 2: insurers pulled the plug on shipping traffics, and basically we're
Speaker 2: not going to injure you, or we're going to jack
Speaker 2: up the price extraordinarily. Now Reuter's is reporting Iran is
Speaker 2: notifying vessels it is officially closing the Straight of Hormus.
Speaker 2: If officially closed, twenty plus million barrels of oil per
Speaker 2: day will be impacted, twenty percent of global supply. Qatar
Speaker 2: has cut off their LNG production. Gas prices in Europe
Speaker 2: have already skyrocketed some fifty percent. So when you say
Speaker 2: we're going to throw everything that we have at it
Speaker 2: and we're going to go big, you know what does
Speaker 2: that actually in effect look like.
Speaker 8: Let me start off by just saying one of the
Speaker 8: thing that I think is important. Just a couple of days,
Speaker 8: about three days before Trump decided to start this war,
Speaker 8: I was in a closed meeting with a bunch of
Speaker 8: former officials, analysts, military people, and the general view in
Speaker 8: the room was the Vonians would never do this. They
Speaker 8: will never close the straits, they would never attack the
Speaker 8: GCC states. It would be too costly for them. And
Speaker 8: I think it reflected the fact that this had not
Speaker 8: really dawned upon people. The manner in which Trump is
Speaker 8: doing this is making a clear signal to Devonians. This
Speaker 8: is an existential fight, and in an existential fight, they're
Speaker 8: not going to think about tomorrow. They're not going to
Speaker 8: think about what GCC round relations are going to be
Speaker 8: a year from now. They're going to think about how
Speaker 8: they survive this war. And as a result, decisions that
Speaker 8: were perceived to be unthinkable just empty threats from the
Speaker 8: Varnians we are now seeing happening on a daily basis.
Speaker 8: As you pointed out the closing of the straits, and
Speaker 8: again I think it shows the profound miscalculation, although of
Speaker 8: course those people in the room were not the decision makers.
Speaker 8: I think it reflects what also decision makers have been
Speaker 8: thinking about this. I think what is happening now is
Speaker 8: that because of this essential I wouldn't call it panic,
Speaker 8: but really scrambling to try to figure out a new plan.
Speaker 8: The emphasis is going to be to throw everything at
Speaker 8: the Iranians. I think we're going to see significant bombardment.
Speaker 8: We're going to see an effort to use the Kurds
Speaker 8: in order to launch attacks in the Kurdish areas in
Speaker 8: the absence of other ground troops, although I wouldn't be
Speaker 8: surprised if there may be some Israeli ground troops with
Speaker 8: the Kurds, although the Kurdish numbers are not very high.
Speaker 8: It's not so much that this actually would end up
Speaker 8: becoming like a real invasion, but something that would be
Speaker 8: further effort to try to cause Tehran to lose control
Speaker 8: of the largest situation. If the Iranians are trying to
Speaker 8: expand the theater of war into areas that the US
Speaker 8: wasn't ready for. The US is responding in kind. But
Speaker 8: bottom line is we're seeing that the original plans didn't
Speaker 8: even survive the first five seconds of reality.
Speaker 3: Yeah right, yeah, I mean already this is a full
Speaker 3: blown regional conflict, which, as you said, and by the way,
Speaker 3: Trump admitted, you don't just have to listen to you.
Speaker 3: We were surprised that they attacked the golf countries. He
Speaker 3: has caused absolute chaos. The State Department saying this morning,
Speaker 3: all citizens in the Golf should leave, all of them,
Speaker 3: by the way, good luck leaving. All of the airports
Speaker 3: are closed. The US Ambassador Mike Huckabee is putting out
Speaker 3: guidance about how to get on a bus from Israel
Speaker 3: to the Sinai Peninsula and then hopefully be able to
Speaker 3: catch a flight from there to somewhere else before they
Speaker 3: can eventually get the hell out. There's over a million
Speaker 3: Americans who live in the region. I used to be
Speaker 3: one of them. But sticking with that, sir, let's put
Speaker 3: a ten up here on the screen, just so you
Speaker 3: can already see huge strikes in the middle of Tehran
Speaker 3: in the middle of daylight. I mean, God only knows
Speaker 3: the number of people that have already been killed. But
Speaker 3: many of the reports coming out of Iran saying that
Speaker 3: the Israeli strikes are specifically targeting these police stations. As
Speaker 3: as you said, the internal logic right now for the
Speaker 3: golf and for the United States is that this is
Speaker 3: already intolerable from a munition's depletion standpoint for interceptors, which
Speaker 3: means that they have to go all out bombard the
Speaker 3: country as much as humanly possible and try to basically
Speaker 3: erode their capacity to fight. This is the North Vietnam
Speaker 3: bombing strategic logic of many, many decades. Of course, it
Speaker 3: doesn't work if you have a population and a regime
Speaker 3: which is hardened in its belief that it is completely existential.
Speaker 3: So let's say we do get this massive bombardment an
Speaker 3: effect effective trying for to collapse the state. Let's say
Speaker 3: they do take out the missile launchers, what's next from
Speaker 3: that point because the regime itself will still be intact,
Speaker 3: and it's not like Trump and Israel can just declare victory.
Speaker 8: Again. I don't think there is much of a plan.
Speaker 8: The hope was that now they're targeting a lot of
Speaker 8: police stations, IRGC headquarters, besiege headquarters. The hope is that
Speaker 8: this eventually will lead to a regime implosion, because the
Speaker 8: repressive capabilities of the state will be eroded, and then
Speaker 8: magically people will rise up and take over. And you know,
Speaker 8: there is some basis to believe that something like this
Speaker 8: could happen. To bet an entire war. That it will
Speaker 8: happen is a completely different story. I go back to
Speaker 8: what I said on this show several times. I repeated
Speaker 8: it as often as I could in every interview. Trump
Speaker 8: has been led to believe that Iran is much weaker
Speaker 8: than it is, and as a result, he's gone down
Speaker 8: this path. And now we're discovering that it is not
Speaker 8: that simple. As you mentioned, the problems for people for
Speaker 8: Americans to leave the GCC states, even leaving Israel. At
Speaker 8: this point, I spoke to a friend who was traveling.
Speaker 8: He was in Dubai, can't get out, had to take
Speaker 8: a cab all the way to Oman. That border to
Speaker 8: Oman between the U and of Oman was just completely
Speaker 8: overloaded with people trying to escape Dubai and try to
Speaker 8: find a flight out of the Arabian Peninsula. Clearly no
Speaker 8: planning whatsoever from any side for this to be able
Speaker 8: to have, and yet the riding was on the wall.
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, we've been listening to Professor Robert Pape,
Speaker 2: who's expert on warfare and airpower in particular. In one
Speaker 2: hundred years of trying this, there's never been a successful,
Speaker 2: a successful regime change just using air power. We also
Speaker 2: have the recent example of Gaza, which obviously is much
Speaker 2: smaller and where the Israelis with our assistance, bombed the
Speaker 2: hell of it out of it, reduced it all to
Speaker 2: rubble effectively, and had a ground invasion and still were
Speaker 2: not able to dislodge Humas from power. So the you know,
Speaker 2: the arrogance, the delusion here is just extraordinary to me
Speaker 2: as someone who was not expert on these things whatsoever.
Speaker 2: Last question I had for you is, you know, I
Speaker 2: was watching that bombardment of Tehran, looking at the fact
Speaker 2: that they've already targeted.
Speaker 4: Some nine hospitals.
Speaker 2: Obviously, little girls massacred, over one hundred and sixty of
Speaker 2: them at a school. Another school, I think a girl's
Speaker 2: volleyball team was killed. Are they since the initial let's
Speaker 2: try to collapse the regime didn't work out, are they
Speaker 2: now going to pursue effectively the same strategy they pursued
Speaker 2: in Gaza.
Speaker 8: It appears that at least on a couple of occasions
Speaker 8: that has happened, we've seen evidence of double tap attacks.
Speaker 8: There's a video of an Iranian woman who actually doesn't
Speaker 8: live in Iran, I don't know if she's Iranian American,
Speaker 8: who is crying and said that they struck this hotel.
Speaker 8: When people rushed in to try to help it, they
Speaker 8: struck again. So evidence of these double taps are now emerging.
Speaker 8: One thing I have to say, though, I'm sorry to
Speaker 8: raise this, but I was on BBC last night and
Speaker 8: they aired tapes or reconstruction of tapes of three voices
Speaker 8: from Iran that they claim to have spoken to, who
Speaker 8: all were praising these bombings. I mean, one of them
Speaker 8: was saying that you know, we're applauding every time to
Speaker 8: hear a bomb without a doubt. I do believe that
Speaker 8: there is some level of support inside of Iran for
Speaker 8: this campaign. Certainly there's a degree of support, although I
Speaker 8: think it's exaggerated in the diaspora. But BBC aired three
Speaker 8: voices who all said the same thing, given the viewers
Speaker 8: the impression that this is a liberation board, that the
Speaker 8: people inside of Iran are just yearning to be bombed.
Speaker 8: And I had to call them out on and I said,
Speaker 8: this is worse than the Iraq war propaganda that I've seen,
Speaker 8: because you know very well that there's a diversity of
Speaker 8: us inside the country, yet you only aired one type
Speaker 8: of a voice and give people the impression that everyone
Speaker 8: is welcoming this for which is absolutely not the case.
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's outrageous. And we've been watching this happen in
Speaker 3: our own There are ninety two million people in Iran.
Speaker 3: Ninety two million? Did three? Maybe what about the rest?
Speaker 3: How do we have any idea and how have we
Speaker 3: not seen this story? I've seen plenty of videos. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I've seen plenty videos. I'm sure you have too, of
Speaker 3: like secular looking people who are like we will stand
Speaker 3: and fight to the death against the United States and
Speaker 3: against Israel in the streets of Tehran could be selective
Speaker 3: regime propaganda. I'm not going to take that fully as
Speaker 3: the only voice, but of course that voice exists too.
Speaker 3: It's completely irresponsible to say that it doesn't. And at
Speaker 3: this point, I mean the history of nationalism. Even in
Speaker 3: countries which are being externally bombed with you know, external
Speaker 3: pressure to be applied, many are not willing to just
Speaker 3: play ball with the imperial aggressor. But as you know,
Speaker 3: even if they do disagree with the internal politics, which
Speaker 3: is quite literally the story of Iraq. I mean, I
Speaker 3: guess the final thing that we wanted to I guess
Speaker 3: wanted to talk to you a little bit about here
Speaker 3: is with this logic up along the escalation ladder, the
Speaker 3: consuming of the Gulf States, every story Top Wall Street, Journal,
Speaker 3: Bloomberg is interceptors are running out in the golf by
Speaker 3: the way, even these golf got I mean, I'm reading
Speaker 3: stories they're shooting Patriot four million dollar missiles at Shahad drones,
Speaker 3: which cost twenty thousand dollars.
Speaker 1: They're going to be out within a week, maybe a month.
Speaker 3: We don't exactly know the number if that happens, and
Speaker 3: we see a conflagration. Already, Saudi Ramco is under threat.
Speaker 3: They're saying that they're going to avoid the Straits of Hormuz,
Speaker 3: move oil through the Red Sea via pipeline. Qatar LNG
Speaker 3: has already shut down Iran, saying this morning they may
Speaker 3: even attack Europe. When we see a depletion of that
Speaker 3: and we see this actually globalized into a major war,
Speaker 3: what does that look like from a global perspective, not
Speaker 3: only impact on the United States, but broadly for a
Speaker 3: regional and global picture for our geopolitics.
Speaker 8: We don't know, because the planner who didn't think this through.
Speaker 8: I mean, this is truly unprecedented. The Iranians have struck
Speaker 8: or tried to strike Cyprus, where the Brits have been
Speaker 8: using a base that was extremely active in the genocide
Speaker 8: against Gaza, but apparently also had played a role in
Speaker 8: some of the attacks on Iran. It may also be
Speaker 8: a retaliation for the Brits allowing Garcia to be used
Speaker 8: by the United States after first having resisted. The Iranians
Speaker 8: cannot reach out, so perhaps deystruckt the Cypress base short
Speaker 8: of that, But we also see what's now happening between
Speaker 8: Europe and Russia. Europe is now putting pressure on the
Speaker 8: Ukrainians to allow Russian gas and oil to come into
Speaker 8: Europe because now they're suffering from an astute fuel shortage
Speaker 8: that has been made much much worse because of this war.
Speaker 8: I mean, life as a vassal is clearly not particularly easy,
Speaker 8: since you have put your own destiny in the hands
Speaker 8: of someone else. But the Europeans, to chose to become
Speaker 8: vassals of the United States in this matter, are not
Speaker 8: paying the price for it now. Will this then eventually
Speaker 8: lead to a scenario in which the Russians and the Chinese,
Speaker 8: one way or another, are also dragged into it. The
Speaker 8: conventional wisdom has always been that the Russians, at least
Speaker 8: the Chinese will do everything they can to stay out
Speaker 8: of this. The Russians are not going to jeopardize their
Speaker 8: prospects for a deal to end the Ukraine Wars in
Speaker 8: order to help the Iranians. But if this expands in
Speaker 8: an uncontrolla uncontrollable way, then we cannot say exactly what
Speaker 8: the response of some of these other countries will be.
Speaker 8: We're also seeing right now other things. We're seeing that
Speaker 8: in Bahrain there are riots taking place. There's some reports
Speaker 8: that the Saudis have stepped in into Bahrain again to
Speaker 8: clamp down on those protests, as they did in twenty eleven. Rain,
Speaker 8: of course, used to be Iranian territory. It's majority Shia,
Speaker 8: so we're already seeing the kind of repercussions that most
Speaker 8: people thought would only happen in the worst case scenario.
Speaker 8: We're three days into it. We're already in the worst
Speaker 8: case scenario in that sense.
Speaker 2: Unbelievable, just absolutely unbelievable, Doctor Parsi, thank you as always.
Speaker 8: Thank you, sir, thank you so much for having me.
Speaker 3: Turning now to the Golf situation, which we just talked
Speaker 3: about with doctor Trita Parsi, the entire region and flame
Speaker 3: and also deeply afraid of what it means if they
Speaker 3: run out of interceptors. We did want to start though,
Speaker 3: with this extraordinary accusation by Tucker Carlson reporting that there
Speaker 3: were MOSAD plots and agents arrested by two different golf
Speaker 3: countries trying to foment terror and chaos in these countries.
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.
Speaker 9: It really really hurts these countries, and Israel wanted to
Speaker 9: hurt these countries. That's the point, wanted to hurt these countries,
Speaker 9: wanted to show chaos and disorder because they are rivals
Speaker 9: of Israel. So it's probably not hasn't been reported, but
Speaker 9: it's fact that last night in Qatar and Saudi Arabia,
Speaker 9: authorities arrested MASAD agents planning on committing bombings in those countries.
Speaker 9: Now that's weird, that doesn't make any sense. Why would
Speaker 9: the Israelis be committing bombings in two golf countries which
Speaker 9: are also being attacked by Iran. Aren't they on the
Speaker 9: same side.
Speaker 10: No, No, Israel wants to hurt Iran and Qatar and
Speaker 10: Eway and Saudi and Bahrain and Oman and Kuwait.
Speaker 3: Extraordinary claim there by Tucker Carlson and obviously highlighting the
Speaker 3: bigger strategic picture that we picked off our entire show
Speaker 3: is this is Israel's war. There's really not a whole
Speaker 3: lot in here for the United States. We've depleted our
Speaker 3: interceptor stockpile. We've now made a mockery of all of
Speaker 3: these golf country You know how many billions of dollargies
Speaker 3: in golf countries have spent on US.
Speaker 1: I mean it's probably hundreds of billions if.
Speaker 3: You total all of it together where they're like, look,
Speaker 3: we buy all your weapons, you get to keep our
Speaker 3: you get to keep your bases here to support the
Speaker 3: war in Iraq. We get to have a literal monarchy
Speaker 3: and it's all cool, and we have a ton of
Speaker 3: oil and you buy it.
Speaker 1: That's it.
Speaker 3: So it's security in exchange for monarchy. Everybody's kind of
Speaker 3: done a handshake deal around that. That's all being blown
Speaker 3: up their entire vision before the world. Let's go ahead
Speaker 3: and put some of this vo that we have up
Speaker 3: here on the screen. In each of these cases, we're
Speaker 3: showing you the region is literally inflame. So you've got
Speaker 3: Tel Aviv in the middle of last night. This is
Speaker 3: all just from last night. You've got missiles that are
Speaker 3: flying around the screen. You can see some of the
Speaker 3: interceptors that come multiple interceptors that they're having to fire.
Speaker 1: This one was in Doha.
Speaker 8: Guitar.
Speaker 3: I mean, this is genuinely shocking, Like it's crazy. Look
Speaker 3: at the amount of interceptors and all that are being
Speaker 3: fired up into the sky to intercept either drones or
Speaker 3: missiles that are coming in towards them. These people have
Speaker 3: never seen anything like this. This was video which was
Speaker 3: actually on the border of Saudi Arabia and of Bahrain.
Speaker 3: As riots continue to break out in Bahrain, which has
Speaker 3: a large Shia population which you can see in front
Speaker 3: of you, Saudi Arabia is having to dispatch some security
Speaker 3: forces potentially to try and crush those riots, just like
Speaker 3: they did in the middle of the Arab Spring. So
Speaker 3: your foundation of their society is now in question. From Bahrain,
Speaker 3: which is the home of the Fifth Fleet, tens of
Speaker 3: thousands of Americans. Kuwait, of course their long security relationship
Speaker 3: with the US.
Speaker 1: Iraq.
Speaker 3: This morning, which somewhat allegedly was our protectorate or kind
Speaker 3: of was whenever we invaded and occupied it for I
Speaker 3: don't know, like twenty years, just had to shut down
Speaker 3: their largest oil field, Saudi Arabia this morning. The US
Speaker 3: Embassy in Saudi Arabia issuing a explicit notice that they
Speaker 3: have incoming missile and UAV attacks on dah Ran.
Speaker 1: If you don't know what, Doron is, the home of
Speaker 1: the Saudi.
Speaker 3: Aramco compound and of the largest oil facility in the world.
Speaker 3: In addition, we had the Saudi Embassy which was or
Speaker 3: the US Embassy in Riod was hit by drone yesterday
Speaker 3: and apparently the roof was caved in three different drone
Speaker 3: attacks that hit the US. I mean, do you know
Speaker 3: how insane a single attack on a US embassy is
Speaker 3: an international story. The US embassy in Riahat has now
Speaker 3: been hit. The US embassy in Baghdad was basically under
Speaker 3: siege for two days straight. You've got now confirmed reports.
Speaker 3: We were careful. We talked about this yesterday. The United
Speaker 3: States military is now confirming vi A Reuters that marines
Speaker 3: fired on people in Pakistan. Sure that's going to go over. Well,
Speaker 3: That's going to go over real well in Pakistan, isn't it.
Speaker 3: Pakistani protesters killed by American marines in the middle of
Speaker 3: a consulate in a massive protest where people are shooting
Speaker 3: at each other. This is full blown chaos all over
Speaker 3: the entire world, and then bigger. What really belies all
Speaker 3: of this is this story. Let's put B three up
Speaker 3: here on the screen. The UAE and Katar are urging
Speaker 3: allies to urge allies to help Trump find an off
Speaker 3: ramp and largely interceptor stocks. Front page of the Wall
Speaker 3: Street Journal literally this morning is about the number of
Speaker 3: interceptors that these trees are firing. They're four I mean,
Speaker 3: just think about the math here, four million dollar patriot
Speaker 3: against a twenty thousand dollars drone. They say that they
Speaker 3: might be done in a matter of a week, perhaps days.
Speaker 3: And then what the hell is going to happen to
Speaker 3: the Burj Khalifa or the Queen Elizabeth Hotel or in Doha,
Speaker 3: I mean, the Ritz Car, all of these famous hotels.
Speaker 3: What did Professor jeongsay yesterday? Water desalination plants, the dams
Speaker 3: which are all over the country for water supply. What
Speaker 3: about Qatar LNG has already done. Qatar LNG announced this
Speaker 3: morning they're shutting down all downstream production, not just LNG
Speaker 3: production of everything is happening. The Iraq oil field is down,
Speaker 3: The Saudi Aramco is basically notifying its suppliers that they're
Speaker 3: going to have to pick up from somewhere else to
Speaker 3: avoid the straits of the.
Speaker 1: Disruption across the Gulf.
Speaker 3: It will take them years to recover from this, you know,
Speaker 3: structure militarily, what are they going to do? And then
Speaker 3: brand wise, Oh my god, you've got probably a million
Speaker 3: plus maybe two million Americans who are now stranded all
Speaker 3: across the entire golf.
Speaker 1: I mean, these are like very rich people like oil.
Speaker 1: I used to live there. I'm telling you, like, I
Speaker 1: went to the American School of Doha.
Speaker 3: Every other kid is like, oh, my dad works at
Speaker 3: Exon or whatever. Imagine you've been living there for a decade,
Speaker 3: You're drinking Margarita's the Intercontinental Hotel, and the next day
Speaker 3: you are literally trying to get the hell out of
Speaker 3: the country.
Speaker 1: But you can't. You literally can't.
Speaker 2: All the people who go and vacation there, you know,
Speaker 2: again very high end luxury, Like do you think that
Speaker 2: they're going to be rushing back for their Dubai vacation
Speaker 2: after seeing luxury hotels going up and flame? And this
Speaker 2: is what their whole economy and image is built around.
Speaker 2: So that's why it's so long term devastating to them.
Speaker 2: To your point, Zager, about that Wall Street Journal front
Speaker 2: page article on the Interceptor's math math, which again Marco
Speaker 2: Rubio himself came out and was talking about quite openly.
Speaker 4: Yesterday.
Speaker 2: Now, Donald Trump put on a truth social post saying
Speaker 2: that we could do war forever and it wouldn't be
Speaker 2: a problem. I'll ask you to you know which which
Speaker 2: version you'd believe. But in any case, they quote this
Speaker 2: expert who says, the intensity of interceptor usage that we
Speaker 2: have seen over the last couple of days cannot be
Speaker 2: maintained for more than another week, a week, probably a
Speaker 2: couple of days at most, and then they will feel
Speaker 2: the pain of interceptor shortage. That is from Fabian Hoffman,
Speaker 2: a missile expert at the University of Oslo.
Speaker 4: So that's where we're at.
Speaker 2: And the Iranians number one, they have an asymmetric interest
Speaker 2: in this fight. So of course they're outmatched by the
Speaker 2: amount of firepower that we have in Israel and all
Speaker 2: of our allies, all the weapons we sold them over
Speaker 2: the years, blah blah blah. But they have one thing
Speaker 2: going for them, which is that it's truly an existential struggle.
Speaker 2: This means so much more to that. I mean, how
Speaker 2: how much do you care about this? You just probably
Speaker 2: want us to end this war?
Speaker 4: Right?
Speaker 2: They know that this is truly truly existential for them.
Speaker 2: We couldn't defeat the frickin' hoofies right armed with much
Speaker 2: cruder arms and much lower level of supply, because ultimately,
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, we didn't care enough
Speaker 2: to be able to you know, when they saw the
Speaker 2: fight as more important, we spent twenty years in Afghanistan
Speaker 2: with all of our weaponry and a ground invasion. And
Speaker 2: at the end of those twenty years when we left,
Speaker 2: guess who came back into power the Taliban. Why because
Speaker 2: they cared much more than we did at the I mean,
Speaker 2: that's what really has screwed us. That is the lesson
Speaker 2: that should have been learned over all these many years
Speaker 2: when you were attacking people's lives, when you're attacking a government,
Speaker 2: when you're threatening its existence, they will fight to the death.
Speaker 2: And the American people are not bought in for this
Speaker 2: at all.
Speaker 4: They are not willing to accept any of this pain.
Speaker 2: Like the six service members who have already been killed
Speaker 2: in action is six to many, no one, virtually, no
Speaker 2: one outside of this small area and some you know,
Speaker 2: people in the Iranian diaspora here are really excited and
Speaker 2: enthused and motivated to suffer in any sort of way
Speaker 2: for this. And yet we can already see, I mean,
Speaker 2: doctor parties said it. It is already spiraled.
Speaker 4: Out of control.
Speaker 2: And to go back to Israel's motivation here with allegedly
Speaker 2: sending massad agents in to commit terror attacks, which it's
Speaker 2: not confirmed, but I certainly don't put it past them.
Speaker 2: The logic of that is that not only do they
Speaker 2: have an interest in just sewing chaos everywhere. We're going
Speaker 2: to talk to Scott Horton about how they're now openly
Speaker 2: advertising like, eh, Turkey's next, you know, after Iran, next
Speaker 2: threat is Turkey. But also they want to they want
Speaker 2: to create these false flag attacks so that the Golf
Speaker 2: States are fully bought into the war too, that they
Speaker 2: also want to fully engage. So that's what Israel's constantly
Speaker 2: pushing for US and for all of the GCC to
Speaker 2: be fully in to this war. That is what serves
Speaker 2: their interest and so that is what they're trying to foment.
Speaker 3: Right put C four up there on the screen, just
Speaker 3: to highlight again the problem and why this is really
Speaker 3: diminished the United States.
Speaker 1: This is from the Middle East eye.
Speaker 3: US is stonewalling request by Golf States to replenish interceptors.
Speaker 3: One Golf States sought reassurances on US commitment to air
Speaker 3: defense when discussing access to its bases. Again, by the way,
Speaker 3: Katar and the UAE highly dispute that original Bloomberg report.
Speaker 3: They're like, we're fine, we have plenty of interceptors. Apparently
Speaker 3: that's the new line. Donald Trump actually put out a
Speaker 3: truth social in the middle of the night. Let me
Speaker 3: read it to you, because this is actually one of
Speaker 3: the most unhinged, dangerous things that he has said.
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll add this in posts.
Speaker 3: The United States munition stockpiles have at the medium and
Speaker 3: upper grade never been higher or better. Not true, as
Speaker 3: we stated to me today, we have virtually unlimited supply
Speaker 3: of these weapons.
Speaker 8: Not true.
Speaker 3: Wars can be fought forever very successfully, yes, but not
Speaker 3: with interceptors. Maybe with dummy bombs, jade ams and some bullets,
Speaker 3: but in that scenario you're going to be taking a
Speaker 3: shit pot of casualties. Wars can be fought forever using
Speaker 3: just these supplies. At the highest end, we have good supply,
Speaker 3: but we are not where we want to be. Much
Speaker 3: additional high grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries.
Speaker 3: That's the most dangerous part. Why because it means we
Speaker 3: have to go all in. We don't have that many
Speaker 3: of these interceptors. If we want to go all in,
Speaker 3: say goodbye to Taiwan, Say goodbye to Ukraine. If you
Speaker 3: care about those places, say goodbye to any place in
Speaker 3: the world which may matter more than this tiny little
Speaker 3: country the size of New Jersey, which literally produces nothing,
Speaker 3: called Israel, and we are done.
Speaker 1: That's it. It's over in terms of US geopolitical projection.
Speaker 2: There aren't they already talking about pulling a sad battery from.
Speaker 1: From South Korea? South Korean state media right now?
Speaker 3: Yeah, anyone want to tell me what trading partner South
Speaker 3: Korea is compared to Israel in terms of its rank.
Speaker 3: South Korea is one of the most developed economies in
Speaker 3: the entire world, one of the most important trading partners.
Speaker 1: Ever heard of this little brand called.
Speaker 3: Samsung or any of these other places or you know,
Speaker 3: oh my god, I mean, I could go on forever
Speaker 3: of it's importance, not that anybody in the US apparently
Speaker 3: even gives a shit, but yeah, fad battery out of
Speaker 3: that against Let's compare threats. One state has one of
Speaker 3: the world's largest standing armies, a literal nuclear tipped ICBM
Speaker 3: capable of hitting the United States, and frequently launches missiles
Speaker 3: against South Korea and Japan, two top trading partners which
Speaker 3: are vitally important to the security of the US.
Speaker 1: That's called North Korea. The other one is called Iran.
Speaker 3: It has short range and medium range ballistic missiles, it
Speaker 3: doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, and it can't hit
Speaker 3: the United States. And if we've done a deal with them,
Speaker 3: pretty much wouldn't have met. And which do you think
Speaker 3: is more important to defend against.
Speaker 4: And has never started a war and has never.
Speaker 3: Started a war or at least directly against the United States?
Speaker 3: So which do you think would you say is more
Speaker 3: important to defend But we're going to strip it from there.
Speaker 1: That's just that's just one example. It's over.
Speaker 3: I mean, let me let me read you my interceptor math,
Speaker 3: because people really do not appreciate how dire all of
Speaker 3: this is. I have the direct numbers. These are from CSIS.
Speaker 3: In the Twelve Day War, the US fired one hundred
Speaker 3: and fifty that interceptors to protect Israel. That was twenty
Speaker 3: five percent of the whole US stockpile. In the last
Speaker 3: forty eight hours, we have fired we don't really know,
Speaker 3: probably you know, several dozen at the very least in
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: How many new interceptors do you think that we.
Speaker 3: Got ten twelve, ten month the year before, so tens
Speaker 3: in the last two years. So we fired more than
Speaker 3: what triple or sorry, Quinn Tipple in a single twelve
Speaker 3: in twelve days, and we'd acquired in a two year period.
Speaker 3: It's over. They can't manufacture these things cost millions of dollars.
Speaker 3: The defense supply chain is screwed. And for all the
Speaker 3: two trillion dollars that we spend on this, you know,
Speaker 3: it's funny. I was listening to the CSIS expert. They
Speaker 3: go The NPR person is like, but where does all
Speaker 3: the money go? And he's like, well, most of the
Speaker 3: money's on Tricare, which is like welfare for all of
Speaker 3: these services and healthcare programs and subsidies. It doesn't actually
Speaker 3: go to a lot of the critical weapons systems, despite
Speaker 3: the fact that people have been.
Speaker 1: Warning about this for years. But Trump's own admission.
Speaker 3: The Patriot missile battery they say in there, the UAE
Speaker 3: and the Katar they were like, can we get more
Speaker 3: Patriots and are like, oh, we gave them all the Ukraine, sorry,
Speaker 3: they're all gone. We literally gave them all away. The
Speaker 3: Europeans can't give you anything. They shipped it all already
Speaker 3: for the Eastern Dunboss region.
Speaker 1: It's this is bad.
Speaker 2: They're like those they're mussling us up with those drones too.
Speaker 2: And I mean that was one of the things Professor
Speaker 2: Jang said yesterday is that our military really was built
Speaker 2: for the Cold War. It was built for flexing, it
Speaker 2: was built for performance of power, and it really has
Speaker 2: not been you know, reimagined for modern warfare. And so look,
Speaker 2: the Iranians learned from the Twelve Day Wars. Okay, we're
Speaker 2: going to shoot off our you know, lower tech missiles
Speaker 2: and use these drones that can you know, evade some
Speaker 2: of them will evade your interceptors, and we're gonna we're
Speaker 2: gonna bet that we can outlast you. Now, let me
Speaker 2: tell you the other side of the other side of
Speaker 2: that is that the US. Look, they're bombing the hell
Speaker 2: out of Tehran right now. Their their goal is to
Speaker 2: destroy all of the missiles, destroy all of the missile launchers,
Speaker 2: so that Iran can never make it to that point
Speaker 2: that Iran is not capable of, you know, outlasting because
Speaker 2: their capabilities have been so severely degraded and destroyed. And
Speaker 2: that is certainly a possibility. That is the bet that
Speaker 2: they're making. But look already already what Iran has been
Speaker 2: able to do by saying basically fuck it, we're throwing
Speaker 2: everything against the wall, where we are putting all our
Speaker 2: chips on the table. We are all in the economic damage,
Speaker 2: the brand damage, and the gulf, the chaos, the attacks
Speaker 2: on the US, the humiliation really truly of the US.
Speaker 4: Our fighter jets are flying or dropping out of.
Speaker 2: The sky, which, by the way, there should still be
Speaker 2: a lot of questions about what the hell exactly happened
Speaker 2: there and whether that was truly friendly fire or not,
Speaker 2: because if it was, I mean the whole it's insane anyway.
Speaker 2: But the level of humiliation the US has already suffered
Speaker 2: here is truly incalculable. And you know, and the Iranians
Speaker 2: are like, no, we're not going to negotiate with you.
Speaker 2: We need to exact some pain because otherwise you will
Speaker 2: never leave us alone. So we are going to do
Speaker 2: everything we can to make you suffer. And there is
Speaker 2: zero appetite for suffering on the US.
Speaker 3: Also, our new update, just while we were filming Donald Trump,
Speaker 3: their Air Defense Air Force NAVAN leadership is gone. They
Speaker 3: want to talk, I said, too late.
Speaker 4: Great, Oh yeah, I'm sure we take his word for it.
Speaker 1: But no, I'm just like said a liar.
Speaker 3: Regardless of what is being you know, maybe they probably
Speaker 3: said no, we don't want to talk at all, but
Speaker 3: him saying Nope, we're not going to talk at all.
Speaker 1: We're going to go full on. So this is it.
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean he's lying they I mean, based
Speaker 2: on other recording, they rejected it. And so he's trying,
Speaker 2: Oh you didn't fire me, I quit you know that's
Speaker 2: what he's doing.
Speaker 3: Yeah, regardless, the situation is the same. There's only one
Speaker 3: logic from here. If you know you're going to run
Speaker 3: out of interceptors, then you've got to bomb the shit
Speaker 3: out of the country and to try and flatten and
Speaker 3: destroy it, collapse it into civil war. Well okay, well
Speaker 3: what comes next? What's going to happen after that massive
Speaker 3: refugee crisis, huge civil war? It could bleed all into
Speaker 3: the rest of the Gulf. These drones aren't going anywhere.
Speaker 3: You've got hundreds of thousands of people with a bunch
Speaker 3: of guns and military training, and we don't have a
Speaker 3: ground force there to do anything about it.
Speaker 1: So what do you think they're going to do? You
Speaker 1: think you're gonna take it, sit and line down.
Speaker 3: By the way, they just attacked the Rocky Curds this morning,
Speaker 3: to try and preempt some sort of attack by them.
Speaker 1: So we're already going cross border.
Speaker 2: Well, and here's the other thing, you know, a bigger
Speaker 2: picture in terms of these So we know public sentiment
Speaker 2: in the US is against this war overwhelmingly. Look, the
Speaker 2: Republican base is going to go along with it by
Speaker 2: and large, but the rest of the populations like, what
Speaker 2: the hell is going on here?
Speaker 1: Right?
Speaker 2: And you even hear democrats, the democratic rhetoric has already
Speaker 2: shifted from being so extremely lame at the you know,
Speaker 2: especially at the top levels, to now after those Rubio comments,
Speaker 2: I'm here in democrats like Mark Warner saying some things
Speaker 2: about Israel I never thought I would hearer in my
Speaker 2: entire life, so that they are already reading the political
Speaker 2: writing on the wall here. But you also have to
Speaker 2: think about the populations in the region where you know,
Speaker 2: to Sager's point, these are monarchies like these are not
Speaker 2: representative democracies.
Speaker 4: And they've made some noise about oh the.
Speaker 2: Palestinians, yes, we support it, to state, but they are
Speaker 2: populations who many of whom truly do support the Palestinian
Speaker 2: cause and truly are disgusted with the genocide in Palestine.
Speaker 2: And the you know, annexation of the West Bank and.
Speaker 1: All of that.
Speaker 4: They do not agree.
Speaker 2: They see the fecklessness, they see the game that their
Speaker 2: leaders are playing. So you also start this war at
Speaker 2: a moment of a low point in regional public opinion,
Speaker 2: both about the UI and about Israel, which is why
Speaker 2: you know, you see multiple of our embassies being attacked,
Speaker 2: you know, in Pakistan, the fact that US marines were
Speaker 2: shooting civilians attacking the US embassy in Karachi. I mean,
Speaker 2: this in and of itself is just that one thing
Speaker 2: is an absolutely insane event. And then you've got you know,
Speaker 2: mobs at the bag Dad embassy as well. I mean,
Speaker 2: this is this is a moment when most of the
Speaker 2: population in the region. Look, they're you know, typically not
Speaker 2: too crazy about US. They hate our freaking guts, and
Speaker 2: they hate the Israelis. And that's the moment when you're
Speaker 2: gonna ask to you know, them to bear the pain
Speaker 2: of their countries getting attacked. They're you know, the luxury
Speaker 2: hotels next to them getting blown up, and their governments
Speaker 2: are on board with all of it. You're gonna have
Speaker 2: some you know, you're gonna have some local and we're
Speaker 2: already seeing that in Bahrain, which is why the riots
Speaker 2: are very significant.
Speaker 3: Development that's going to be the first one to fall
Speaker 3: because they have the Shia population. But the rest of them,
Speaker 3: I mean, look, there's some there is a serious social contract. Right,
Speaker 3: you have no rights literally whatsoever. But you're gonna be rich.
Speaker 1: But that rich.
Speaker 3: Those riches come from oil, natural gas being this global playground.
Speaker 1: Right.
Speaker 3: All of these Indian laborers, I mean, how many of
Speaker 3: them are going to stick around? Like money's worth it
Speaker 3: up to a point before you think you're gonna die.
Speaker 3: And then if you have enough money, do they have
Speaker 3: enough money to continue paying them? I think I mentioned
Speaker 3: earlier the US embassy and riod is issuing this imminent
Speaker 3: threat of a missile attack over dah Ram, which is
Speaker 3: the seat of Saudi Aramco.
Speaker 1: This is the lifeblood of these places.
Speaker 3: The money is the only thing that flattens out all
Speaker 3: of the tensions in these people's societies. If it dries up,
Speaker 3: if it dries up by even thirty percent, it's catastrophe
Speaker 3: for these economies.
Speaker 2: Rock is shut down oil production at the world's second
Speaker 2: largest oil field, which produces one point five million barrels
Speaker 2: of oil per day, amid escalating military activity, and the
Speaker 2: American government is telling Americans in the region you should
Speaker 2: get out, but we're not going to help you.
Speaker 4: You're on your own.
Speaker 8: Good.
Speaker 3: Imagine being stuck in Israel and you're like, hey, how
Speaker 3: do I get out of here? And you have to
Speaker 3: go to the US ambassador's Twitter feed where he's giving
Speaker 3: you these minute instructions about how to catch a bus
Speaker 3: to the Sinai and then when you get to the Sinai,
Speaker 3: use this link which you have to pay to cross
Speaker 3: the border. And then when you cross the border, let's
Speaker 3: hope that you I mean, look, I've only been once,
Speaker 3: but I'm pretty sure that it's not a very big
Speaker 3: airport in the middle of the Sinai peninsula. Are they
Speaker 3: going to be you know, there's seven hundred thousand Americans
Speaker 3: who live in or at least seven hundred thousand American
Speaker 3: citizens who live in Israel. Are they all going to
Speaker 3: be able to get out? And now imagine Dubai Doha.
Speaker 3: What Treta Parsi said there? Do we have that story
Speaker 3: about five times? Yeah, let's put that one up there.
Speaker 3: See five up there on the screen. Half of Dubai
Speaker 3: is booking. Expats are driving to Oman and Saudi Arabia
Speaker 3: to try and to find flights. I said yesterday the
Speaker 3: going rate for a PJ out of Saudi Arabia right
Speaker 3: now is three hundred and fifty thousand for a single
Speaker 3: flight to be able to get out of the country.
Speaker 3: Trump's podcast advisor Alex bruceter Witz from the campaign, he
Speaker 3: got stuck in the Gulf, and he apparently had to
Speaker 3: talk with a bunch of friends, including like TikTok influencers
Speaker 3: or whatever, to charter a PJ to Greece to be
Speaker 3: able to get That's the only way out is you
Speaker 3: have to be able to get a private jet.
Speaker 1: That's it.
Speaker 3: And I bet you the premium is unbelievable. So unless
Speaker 3: you don't have that kind of money, you're stuck. You're
Speaker 3: stuck for a long time down there, and they're basically
Speaker 3: even the ambassador is saying openly he goes flights even
Speaker 3: when they do reopen, will be extremely limited and they
Speaker 3: will be disrupted for a significant period of time. It
Speaker 3: could be months that these people are completely stuck with
Speaker 3: missiles flying all over there.
Speaker 2: Let's just put C seven up on the screen. This
Speaker 2: was some important reporting from drop site. We've got you know,
Speaker 2: we saw Iranian drones I think mostly that attacked various
Speaker 2: hotels throughout the golf And according to you know sources
Speaker 2: that DROPSDE are in touch with, they say some of
Speaker 2: the buildings and hotels that were hit were specifically housing
Speaker 2: Israeli or US personnel or intelligence operations, and that Iran
Speaker 2: pinpoint at the locations has really caught the Americans and
Speaker 2: Israelis off guard, according to an Iranian official. So you know, this,
Speaker 2: that level of intelligence penetration too was apparently shocking to
Speaker 2: the Americans and to the Israelis. And let me say
Speaker 2: something like, you know, the Iranians are obviously attacking civilian infrastructure,
Speaker 2: or they're attacking hotels, they're attacking two data centers now
Speaker 2: have been taken out. They're you know, yeah, they're attack
Speaker 2: and they're attacking the some of the oil infrastructure. You know,
Speaker 2: they're claiming some of that is incidental or they didn't
Speaker 2: mean to or whatever, but there is no doubt they're
Speaker 2: attacking civilian infrastructure. Like we have zero ground. I don't
Speaker 2: even hear anyone complain ABO because we have zero ground
Speaker 2: to stand on. Zero And that's the other thing, like,
Speaker 2: you know, when you talk about the Pandora's box that
Speaker 2: was opened by GASA, And what is now on the
Speaker 2: table right is not just confined to us. We're not
Speaker 2: the only ones who are going to take advantage of
Speaker 2: this new law of the jungle where schools and mosques
Speaker 2: and hospitals and you know water zalinization plants and you
Speaker 2: know wastewater treatment plants, where that is all on the table.
Speaker 2: Our adversaries are going to take advantage of that as well.
Speaker 2: And that has already already right now in this moment,
Speaker 2: that has put Americans at risk, and that's part of
Speaker 2: why they are being urged to flee the region immediately,
Speaker 2: being given no.
Speaker 4: Help, no help in order to do that.
Speaker 2: In those six Americans, you know, I think hag Seth,
Speaker 2: it's oh, they were in a fortified facility.
Speaker 1: No, they weren't.
Speaker 4: Bullshit, we just say they were in a triple wide trailer.
Speaker 4: That's what they were in.
Speaker 3: They were in a triple wide trailer with concrete walls
Speaker 3: that were put in front of them because in their mind,
Speaker 3: they're protecting against suicide car like they called v BITS,
Speaker 3: like vehicle borne IED. It's not two thousand and five anymore,
Speaker 3: you know, the IED it comes from the air with
Speaker 3: a twenty thousand dollars drone which crashed directly into it's
Speaker 3: called a tactile operations center also known as a TALK
Speaker 3: and they all got bowned up. Imagine that a temporary
Speaker 3: trailer totally unfortified. There's now an investigation as to why
Speaker 3: there weren't proper troops or there weren't proper air defenses
Speaker 3: or any of that put around them sitting down, it's
Speaker 3: I mean, it's beyond comprehension. These are six guys, their family.
Speaker 3: I mean, what are you going to tell their families?
Speaker 3: Who did they die for? What did they die? I
Speaker 3: hate to talk to that way, I really do, but
Speaker 3: I do think you know, we have to say it
Speaker 3: viscerally in the middle of a conflict. Otherwise is going
Speaker 3: to get caught up in this Iraq war. Freedom isn't
Speaker 3: free level bullshit, and no, we're not doing that this
Speaker 3: time around. We're not going to let them do that
Speaker 3: to us, because that's how we lost thousands, tens of
Speaker 3: thousands who were maimed as well. It really is just
Speaker 3: absolutely sickening. Okay, we've got Scott Horton standing by. Let's
Speaker 3: get to it.