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Speaker 1: Hey, guys, Saga and Crystal here.

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Speaker 2: Independent media just played a truly massive role in this election,

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Speaker 2: and we are so excited about what that means for

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Speaker 2: the future of this show.

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Speaker 3: This is the only place where you can find honest

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Speaker 3: perspectives from the left and the right that simply does

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Speaker 3: not exist anywhere else.

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Speaker 2: So if that is something that's important to you, please

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Speaker 2: go to Breakingpoints dot com. Become a member today and

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Speaker 2: and all put together for you every morning in your inbox.

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Speaker 3: We need your help to build the future of independent

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Speaker 3: news media and we hope to see you at Breakingpoints

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Speaker 3: dot com.

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Speaker 1: Good morning, everybody, Happy Tuesday. Have a great show for

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Speaker 1: everybody today.

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Speaker 4: Where we have Prissel a load to get to.

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Speaker 2: You will not be surprised to learn Marco Rubio claiming

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Speaker 2: that the preemptive threat against the US was actually from Israel.

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Speaker 2: I'm not kidding. No, we will break you off, and

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Speaker 2: not just him, Mike Johnson too. I mean this is

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Speaker 2: crazy stuff that they're saying this out loud. Break all

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Speaker 2: of that down for you, baby. Was on Fox News

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Speaker 2: last night celebrating, of course, the golf States are in chaos.

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Speaker 2: Our embassies are being attacked. Par Arcie is going to

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Speaker 2: join to break down what is going on. Scott Horton

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Speaker 2: is also going to join to break down his larger

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Speaker 2: historical perspective of how.

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Speaker 4: We got to this place.

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Speaker 2: Media is propagandizing during their pro war propaganda on overtime.

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Speaker 2: We've got some low lights for you there, and we're

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Speaker 2: going to take a little trip back and the very

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Speaker 2: recent trip back down memory lane of all the lies

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Speaker 2: that we're told from Jade Vance and Tulci Gabber and

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Speaker 2: An RFK Junior and Steven Miller and Donald Trump himself

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Speaker 2: about how they did not want war with Iran, and

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Speaker 2: yet here we are. Also Ryan and I are going

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Speaker 2: to record an interview with kat Abogazella. You'll recall last

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Speaker 2: week Ryan had some reporting about her foreign policy views,

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Speaker 2: so we thought the best thing to do would be

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Speaker 2: to have her on and just ask her directly what

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Speaker 2: she thinks about various issues, including the Iran war of course,

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Speaker 2: so we will have that for.

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Speaker 4: You as well.

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Speaker 3: I'm interested to follow that been a lot of drama

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Speaker 3: before the Iran war entire out number.

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Speaker 4: Rian's always starting some shit, you know.

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Speaker 3: We love Ryan Ran is and remains the goat no

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Speaker 3: matter what his detractors may say. Thank you to everybody

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Speaker 3: who has been supporting our show for visibility to our audience.

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Speaker 3: Yesterday it was the single biggest day in the history

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Speaker 3: of our show on all platforms, both on YouTube and

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Speaker 3: on Spotify, podcast, Apple, et cetera. So we do have

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Speaker 3: an introductory free month trial for our premium subscription. Let's

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Speaker 3: go and put this up here on the screen. You

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Speaker 3: can go to Breakingpoints dot com and use the promo

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Speaker 3: code BP free twenty six for a free month of

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Speaker 3: it fully so that which is really the way it's

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Speaker 3: designed to be listened to, and you also get to

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Speaker 3: of course participate in our ama, which we will be

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Speaker 3: doing later today.

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Speaker 1: So really thank you.

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Speaker 3: We have millions of people who have been joining the

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Speaker 3: show literally just in the last seventy two hours, very

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Speaker 3: glad to have you, and then untold number as well

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Speaker 3: who joined us for our Epstein coverage, So the show

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Speaker 3: has significantly expanded literally just in the last month or so.

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Speaker 3: We want to say thank you, and then we also

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Speaker 3: want to say thank you to our existing viewers on

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Speaker 3: our podcast listeners, our premium subscribers of course more than others,

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Speaker 3: who enable all of our work to be able to

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Speaker 3: bring it to you as all of this crazy stuff

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Speaker 3: happens live. So thank you deeply to all of you

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Speaker 3: who support the show. And if you can, we would

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Speaker 3: really appreciate it. Can't afford it, Please no worries his

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Speaker 3: subscribe to our YouTube channel, and if you're listening to

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Speaker 3: this on a podcast, please share an episode with a friend.

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Speaker 3: It really helps other people find the show. But with that,

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Speaker 3: let's go ahead and kick it off with what Donald

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Speaker 3: Trump and his administration are saying is the reason why

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Speaker 3: that we are in this war in the first place.

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Speaker 3: You if I said it three days ago, it would

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Speaker 3: have been the anti Semitic conspiracy, And now it is

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Speaker 3: coming out of the mouth of the United States Secretary

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Speaker 3: of State.

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Speaker 4: That's right.

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Speaker 2: So not only Marco Rubio, but also Mike Johnson saying

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Speaker 2: that the reason, because everyone's saying why are we doing this?

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Speaker 2: That the reason, according to them, is that Israel is

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Speaker 2: going to strike around no matter what that that would

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Speaker 2: put our US service members at risk, and so we

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Speaker 2: calculated while we may as well be involved, because maybe

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Speaker 2: that will help us to be able to control the outcome. Here,

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Speaker 2: let's go ahead and take a listen to how they

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Speaker 2: framed that.

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Speaker 5: Why now, Well, there's two reasons why now. The first

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Speaker 5: is it was abundantly clear that if Iran came under

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Speaker 5: attack by anyone, the United States or Israel or anyone,

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Speaker 5: they were going to respond and respond against the United States.

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Speaker 5: The third is the assessment that was made that if

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Speaker 5: we stood and waited for that attack to come first

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Speaker 5: before we get them, we would suffer much higher casualties,

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Speaker 5: and so the President made the very wise decision. We

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Speaker 5: knew that there was going to be an Israeli action,

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Speaker 5: we knew that that would precipitate an attack against American forces,

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Speaker 5: and we knew that if we didn't preemptively go after

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Speaker 5: them before they launched those attacks, we would suffer higher

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Speaker 5: casualties and perhaps even high those killed, And then we

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Speaker 5: would all be here answering questions about why we knew that.

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Speaker 6: Indeed, they had to evaluate the threats to the US,

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Speaker 6: to our troops, to our installations, to our assets in

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Speaker 6: the region and beyond, and they determined, because of the

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Speaker 6: exquisite intelligence that we had that if Israel fired upon Iran,

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Speaker 6: it took action against Iran to take out the missiles,

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Speaker 6: then they would have immediately retaliated against US personnel and assets.

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Speaker 6: The consequences of inaction on our part would have been

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Speaker 6: could have been devastating. We don't know at what magnitude,

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Speaker 6: but you can assume, because it is common sense that

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Speaker 6: if Iran had begun to fire all of their missile

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Speaker 6: arsenal short and in mid range missiles at our personnel

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Speaker 6: and our assets and our installations, we would have suffered

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Speaker 6: staggering losses.

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Speaker 4: I mean sager.

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Speaker 2: Taken at face value, this is utterly humiliating and insane

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Speaker 2: and obviously begs one really clear question, which is okay,

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Speaker 2: If Israel striking Iran was going to create all of

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Speaker 2: these problems and put our service members at risk, why

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Speaker 2: don't we stop Israel from striking Iran?

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Speaker 4: This is our client state.

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Speaker 2: They can't function without our protection, our weaponry, our support, etc.

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Speaker 2: So why did we just get coerced into this rather

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Speaker 2: than going to our client vassal state and saying, no,

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Speaker 2: you're not going to strike Iran because this is against

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Speaker 2: our interests.

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Speaker 3: We need to This is the most extraordinary admission probably

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Speaker 3: in modern history by the United States Secretary of State.

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Speaker 3: They claimed that this war was preemptive, and it was

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Speaker 3: preemptive in the sense that we had to preempt Iranian

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Speaker 3: reaction to Israel's preemption. Are you here with me now?

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Speaker 3: We are not a sovereignty is threat threat. We have

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Speaker 3: sacrificed our sovereignty. We are a non sovereign nation. If

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Speaker 3: the world's superpower is subject to a country the size

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Speaker 3: of New Jersey, which basically makes nothing and is controlling

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Speaker 3: our politicians such that, despite being the largest single recipient

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Speaker 3: of military aid in the history of the United States,

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Speaker 3: that we are not capable of telling them no. And

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Speaker 3: it is now documented history from the New York Times

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Speaker 3: now to the open mouth of the comments of the

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Speaker 3: U s Secretary of State and the Speaker of the

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Speaker 3: House that.

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Speaker 1: This is Israel's war. Israel's war.

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Speaker 3: Now, Donald Trump has agency, but he never once was

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Speaker 3: able apparently it even entered his mind to say, Hey,

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Speaker 3: you're not going to do that. We're going to cut

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Speaker 3: off weapons. We're going to make you a global pariah,

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Speaker 3: and good luck defending yourself without all of our missile

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Speaker 3: defense systems. That never once entered their minds. And you

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Speaker 3: know what I also I was thinking about. You have

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Speaker 3: to think even the Iranians. Iranian strategic calculus was, guys,

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Speaker 3: they won't want to hit us, or Israel's not going

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Speaker 3: to want to hit us because we'll hit US bases.

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Speaker 3: And the theory behind that was by threatening US basis,

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Speaker 3: it would mean that we would constrain or restrain Israel

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Speaker 3: from striking them from their belliger inaction. They never could

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Speaker 3: have imagined the world where the client state is actually

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Speaker 3: dictating and dragging policy of the United States and the

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Speaker 3: global Empire actually enter the war on their very behalf.

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Speaker 1: We are beyond screwed.

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Speaker 3: Also, at a certain point, is it even useful to

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Speaker 3: play comments here? At this point from Donald Trump, Israel's

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Speaker 3: in the driver's seat. They're the ones who killed Iatola Kamani.

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Speaker 3: We're the ones, apparently who gave them the intelligence. There

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Speaker 3: are the ones who do it. All of the strikes

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Speaker 3: now so far are for regime collapse. The ingredients for

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Speaker 3: civil war are happening. They're already job bb Netanyahu got

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Speaker 3: Donald Trump, maybe got Donald Trump made Donald Trump, I

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Speaker 3: don't know, got Donald Trump on the phone with a

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Speaker 3: bunch of Kurdish leaders in Iraq and they're like, hey,

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Speaker 3: go on in there, let's let's stoke a little civilrties.

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Speaker 2: This hill border guards they killed all the come in

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Speaker 2: over the Portvity is.

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Speaker 3: Really stressed by their own admission they are new. They're

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Speaker 3: going after and blowing up all the police stations. You

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Speaker 3: only do that to collapse the civil society. And they're

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Speaker 3: in the country.

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Speaker 2: Nine different hospitals, obviously murdered those schoolgirls, et cetera. And

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Speaker 2: here's the thing is, you know, I keep bringing up

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Speaker 2: the Epstein files because you have to look at this

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Speaker 2: and go, Okay, this is insane. You know, Trump clearly

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Speaker 2: had resistant reluctance to go into a full blown war

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Speaker 2: with a run, and yet nevertheless he did it. And

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Speaker 2: it never occurred to him, or it never seemed to

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Speaker 2: be an option to him to go tos Roun and

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Speaker 2: say no, we will cut you off.

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Speaker 4: Here will be the you know, here will be the reaper.

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Speaker 2: This is something that previous American presidents have been able

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Speaker 2: to do. It's not like Israel's so out of control

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Speaker 2: and they have so much autonomy that they're able to

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Speaker 2: do all of these things on there. No, they're fully

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Speaker 2: and completely enabled by us. So why is that not

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Speaker 2: an option on the table? Why and you have I mean,

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Speaker 2: you can't help but ask yourself. Maybe it is Epstein files, right?

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Speaker 2: Is it just the money from Miriam Addelson? Like there's

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Speaker 2: lots of people who give Trump money for his campaign.

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Speaker 2: There's all sorts of interests that are you know, at

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Speaker 2: filling his both campaign and personal coffers with cash. So

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Speaker 2: that really it, it's just about the Israel lobby cash.

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Speaker 2: There's some piece of this that is missing that just

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Speaker 2: does not add up. Because listen, Donald Trump is extremely belligerent, right,

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Speaker 2: He's bombed more countries in you know, his presidency than

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Speaker 2: like any other American president. He has no problem taking

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Speaker 2: a hawkish military action. But it did seem like the

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Speaker 2: one thing that he was reluctant to do was get

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Speaker 2: embroiled in a long, large scale war, particularly in the

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Speaker 2: Middle East. And yet here we are and you've got

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Speaker 2: the Secretary of State saying, well, Israel made us do it.

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Speaker 2: It does not add up. It does not make sense.

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Speaker 2: There is some piece of this that is missing. And

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Speaker 2: so you cannot call people crazy when they look at

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Speaker 2: the Epstein files, cover up and go, I.

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Speaker 4: Don't know, maybe maybe that's it. Maybe that's what's going

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Speaker 4: on here.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, the to quote Dave Smith, think about this, George W.

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Speaker 3: Bush had the wisdom not to do what Donald Trump

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Speaker 3: is doing. I mean I said it before, you're going

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Speaker 3: to launch a so called war of choice, preemption, whatever

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Speaker 3: you want to call it, now admitting openly nin with

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Speaker 3: ten months or whatever before the midterm elections in your

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Speaker 3: first year. If we think back to the history of

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Speaker 3: the Bush presidency, we're we're all on the right track.

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Speaker 3: You've got an unpopular war in the Middle East. You're

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Speaker 3: going to have what a w call the two thousand

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Speaker 3: and six midterms a thumping?

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Speaker 1: Is that what he said? It's a thumping whenever they democraticking?

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Speaker 1: And then yeah, that.

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Speaker 3: Was Obama's Yeah, I think I think a Bush called

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Speaker 3: it a thumping. Then we have a massive financial crash.

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Speaker 1: So we're on track. Okay, oh yeah, we're all on track.

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Speaker 2: This thing is is down of control. I mean, we've

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Speaker 2: got embassies that are being attacked. We're telling Americans now

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Speaker 2: in twelve different countries in the region, like, oh, use

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Speaker 2: commercial means and get out of the region. Well, there

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Speaker 2: are no commercial means. The air lines are all shut down.

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Speaker 2: The airports are all virtually shut down. You know, there

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Speaker 2: was an article yesterday about how Americans, mostly wealthy Americans,

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Speaker 2: and the UAE, we're trying to get the heck out

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Speaker 2: of Dubai and there's no way to get out of

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Speaker 2: that area. The busiest airport in the entire world, and

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Speaker 2: it's all but closed down. So you've got this thing

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Speaker 2: already completely spiraling out of control. And you know, apparently

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Speaker 2: they thought maybe if we take out the Ayatola and

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Speaker 2: we hit them pretty hard in the front, maybe this

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Speaker 2: whole thing will collapse and the IRGC will just hold

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Speaker 2: a hand over their arms and we can declare mission accomplish.

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Speaker 2: This is delusional, obviously, and now they realize this is delusional,

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Speaker 2: which is why Donald Trump is not going out and

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Speaker 2: talking to anybody. Yesterday sent he said, oh, everybody, go

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Speaker 2: listen to beb Nanyahu on Fox News because apparently this

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Speaker 2: is the person who's actually calling the shop.

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Speaker 3: We'll get to that, but yeah, Trump is out to

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Speaker 3: lunch like completely. Let's take a listen to him yesterday

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Speaker 3: at the White House during a Medal of Honor ceremony.

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Speaker 1: We're in he.

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Speaker 3: Spent I watched the entire thing. He began with maybe

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Speaker 3: a four minute segment on Iran, where he was extremely tired,

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Speaker 3: he seemed distracted, his heart really didn't seem in it

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Speaker 3: at all, and he immediately pivoted to start talking about

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Speaker 3: the fucking ballroom.

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Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

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Speaker 7: Our objectives are clear. First, were destroying orens missile capabilities,

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Speaker 7: and you see that happening on an hourly basis, and

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Speaker 7: their capacity to produce brand new ones and pretty good

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Speaker 7: ones they make. Second, we're annihilating their navy. We've knocked

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Speaker 7: out already ten ships. They're at the bottom of the c. Third,

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Speaker 7: we're ensuring that the world's number one sponsor of TARA

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Speaker 7: can never obtain a nuclear weapon, never going to have

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Speaker 7: a nuclear weapon. We're already substantially ahead of our time projections.

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Speaker 7: But whatever the time is, it's okay. Whatever it takes,

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Speaker 7: we will always and we have right from the beginning,

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Speaker 7: we projected four to five weeks, but we have capability

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Speaker 7: to go far longer than that.

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Speaker 8: We'll do it.

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Speaker 7: Whatever somebody said today, they said, oh, well, the president

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Speaker 7: wants to do it really quickly. After that, he'll get bored.

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Speaker 7: I don't get bored. There's nothing boring about this to

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Speaker 7: that nice drape. When that comes down right now, you

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Speaker 7: see a very very deep hole. But in about a

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Speaker 7: year and a half from now, you're going to see

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Speaker 7: a very very beautiful building. And there's your entrance to

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Speaker 7: it right there. In fact, it looks so nice, I

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Speaker 7: don't think i'll even I think I'll save money on

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Speaker 7: the doors, because you can't get more beautiful than that.

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Speaker 7: I picked those drapes in my first term. I always

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Speaker 7: like gold. But I think we can and save a

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Speaker 7: lot of money. I just saved I just saved curtains.

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Speaker 7: But and it will be It'll be spectacular, be the

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Speaker 7: most beautiful ballroom. I believe it's because I built many

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Speaker 7: a ballroom.

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Speaker 8: I believe it's.

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Speaker 7: Going to be the most beautiful ballroom.

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Speaker 1: That was not an unfair cut. That literally happened.

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Speaker 3: I watched the entire thing, not joking, like we only

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Speaker 3: spared you about two to three minutes in between Iran

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Speaker 3: and all of that. In addition, by the way, Trump

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Speaker 3: continues this thing where he'll take his and will answer

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Speaker 3: his cell phone for anybody who calls. Let's put this

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Speaker 3: up here on the screen from the New York Post

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Speaker 3: where yesterday he refused to rule out sending US troops

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Speaker 3: to Iran if necessary, saying, quote, I don't have the

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Speaker 3: YIPS with respective boots on the ground. Like every president

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Speaker 3: says there will be no boots, I don't say it,

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Speaker 3: Trump said after launching strike Saturday to decapitate Iran's military

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Speaker 3: and political leadership. I say, probably don't need them or

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Speaker 3: if they were necessary. So that is the situation as

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Speaker 3: we currently have it. And Crystal, you know that civil

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Speaker 3: war point that we made earlier. At every time that

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Speaker 3: we have to try and launch some insurgency to over

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Speaker 3: throw or destabilize a government, there are US special forces

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Speaker 3: that accompany them on the ground. And look, no hate

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Speaker 3: to the Kurds. You know they've been screwed around by

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Speaker 3: the United States now probably decades. But we did a

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Speaker 3: lot of work together in the counter Isis campaign, So

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Speaker 3: these forces know exactly how to work together as a

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Speaker 3: basin air bill, right, you know where they are, and look.

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Speaker 1: It's all ready to go.

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Speaker 3: The weapons are there, will be the most well armed

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Speaker 3: insurgents in history, that's all. They need a little bit

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Speaker 3: of a forward deployment from a couple special advisors. It's

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Speaker 3: going to look like the special operations that went in

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Speaker 3: in October two thousand and one with the Taliban, or

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Speaker 3: to defeat the Taliban.

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Speaker 1: That's the theory at least.

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Speaker 3: But that is the recipe for quagmire, for disaster, for

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Speaker 3: civil war, for collapse, and that is Look, if we

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Speaker 3: are to acknowledged this is Israel's war. It is almost

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Speaker 3: irrelevant to what Donald Trump wants. Only he can pull

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Speaker 3: the plug. At least he did in the Twelve Day War.

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Speaker 3: But of course that was just a lead up to

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Speaker 3: do this entire thing.

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Speaker 4: It was a pause.

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Speaker 2: Then we tried all of the internal you know, let's

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Speaker 2: collapse therency, let's stoke the protests, you know, let's see

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Speaker 2: if that will work. And then when that failed, then

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Speaker 2: we're back to a war. And yeah, I mean you

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Speaker 2: and with all of them, obviously they all lie, you know,

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Speaker 2: when if they're breathing, they're lying.

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Speaker 4: But you can look at what they're doing.

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Speaker 2: And to your point, we see these reporting about oh,

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Speaker 2: let's let's talk to the Kurds, let's kill the border

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Speaker 2: guards and you know, open up that border so people

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Speaker 2: can flood in. And then you also see in the

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Speaker 2: targeting they targeted Akmadnazad, you know, previous president of Iran.

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Speaker 2: They targeted a jailed opposition leader who was under house arrest,

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Speaker 2: so they wanted to make sure that this actually wasn't

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Speaker 2: a regime change, that there was no other person who

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Speaker 2: had any sort of legitimate base of support who could

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Speaker 2: come in and take the reins, because Israel's goal is

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Speaker 2: regime collapse.

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Speaker 4: They don't want a strong Iran.

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Speaker 2: They want they don't I apparently don't believe they can

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Speaker 2: really successfully install a puppet, so they just want it

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Speaker 2: to be chaos, death, insanity, civil war, et cetera, so

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Speaker 2: that they can, you know, extend their region regional hegemony.

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Speaker 2: With that being said, we've got a lot more to

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Speaker 2: get to and we've got doctor Tree to Parsi standing by,

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Speaker 2: so let's go ahead and bring him in. All right, everyone,

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Speaker 2: we are fortunate to be joined by front of the show,

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Speaker 2: doctor Tree to Parcy of.

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Speaker 4: The Quincy Institute for Responsible state Craft.

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Speaker 1: Great to see, Sir good, Deseasir good to be with

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Speaker 1: you guys.

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Speaker 2: So we just played for the audience, Marco Ruvio and

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Speaker 2: Mike Johnson both saying no, the imminent threat came from

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Speaker 2: the fact that we knew Israel was going to attack Iran.

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Speaker 2: Regardless of whether we involved ourselves, we knew that would

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Speaker 2: put our US service members at risk. Therefore, we felt

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Speaker 2: compelled to strike Iran first. Your reaction to those extraordinary revelations.

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Speaker 8: I'm delighted that he has spelled it out that this

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Speaker 8: is the reason that, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 8: the Israelis have been driving the boat on this one,

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Speaker 8: and that the United States has followed their lead and

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Speaker 8: let them decide when the US goes to war and

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Speaker 8: when it doesn't. This is, at the end of the day,

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Speaker 8: a decision they made. They made a decision to let

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Speaker 8: the Israelis decide, and now they're trying to hide behind

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Speaker 8: that as if is some sort of a self defense.

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Speaker 8: At this point, there's no speculation value any longer as

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Speaker 8: to whether that Israel is the driving force behind this

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Speaker 8: or not. It is coming out of the mouth of Rubio,

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Speaker 8: and it's coming out of the mouth of the Speaker

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Speaker 8: of the House as well. It is now clear this

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Speaker 8: is what they decided. This is not by any definition

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Speaker 8: America first. This is Israel first.

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Speaker 3: This is probably the most consequential Kinsley gaff in American

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Speaker 3: history where they accidentally tell the trilogy, and that is

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Speaker 3: one where I really don't even know where to go

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Speaker 3: from here. I do think it is worth noting that

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Speaker 3: the administration has laid out the most maximalist goals and

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Speaker 3: it's now making a mockery of America. First, let's say

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Speaker 3: put a six let's say up there on the screen.

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Speaker 1: I really loved this exchange. So Matt wall Show over

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Speaker 1: at the Daily Wire.

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Speaker 3: He put out a tweet, He's like, I've got some

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Speaker 3: questions about this whole operation, and Press Secretary Caroline Levitt

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Speaker 3: released a statement and said, let me reiterate all of

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Speaker 3: the objectives. We're going to destroy the regime's missile raise

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Speaker 3: our missile industry to the ground. We're going to annihilate

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Speaker 3: the navy. We're going to ensure the regime's terrorist proxies

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Speaker 3: can no longer operate. We will stop them from making

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Speaker 3: and using IEDs and when, by the way, ID literally

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Speaker 3: means improvised, So okay, guarantee that Iran can never obtain

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Speaker 3: a nuclear weapon. Preventing the regime from threatening America killing

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Speaker 3: terrorists is good.

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Speaker 1: And there's a long continued diet tribe.

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Speaker 3: I was like, you know, whenever she was meant to

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Speaker 3: address concerns about regime change. This is a regime change manifesto.

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Speaker 3: I don't see any way that there could be a

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Speaker 3: realistic off ramp without effective surrender from the Trump administration.

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Speaker 1: Curious for your review.

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Speaker 8: So here's what I think has happened. I think, first

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Speaker 8: of all, you're right. But here's I think how we

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Speaker 8: got there. The administration was led by these Raelis to

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Speaker 8: believe that this is going to be a very simple operation.

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Speaker 8: They thought that by Sunday evening this would have been

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Speaker 8: wrapped up, that the regime would have imploded as a

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Speaker 8: result of the assassination of the Supreme Leader. That obviously

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Speaker 8: did not work. Twice reportedly, perhaps even three times, from

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Speaker 8: preached out and trying to see if he could get

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Speaker 8: a ceasefire from the Vannius. The Vannius rejected it, and

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Speaker 8: I can go into as to why the Iranians rejected it.

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Speaker 8: So now they're stuck in a situation in which they

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Speaker 8: understand that the Iranian game plan is to prolong this

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Speaker 8: and expand this war and play to what their relative

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Speaker 8: strength is, which is they can withstand this, whereas Trump

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Speaker 8: probably cannot, not militarily but politically, he cannot withstand this.

438
00:20:21,920 --> 00:20:24,280
Speaker 8: For a couple of weeks. So now the Trump administration

439
00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:29,400
Speaker 8: is trying to essentially convince the Iranians that no, no, no, no,

440
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:32,480
Speaker 8: the United States is more than ready to withstand this

441
00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,000
Speaker 8: for a long time. He suddenly said four weeks and

442
00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,879
Speaker 8: that now as a result of the Iranians refusing a ceasefire,

443
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:42,040
Speaker 8: he is going even more maximalism. So he is throwing

444
00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:46,320
Speaker 8: good money after bad money after his first completely unrealistic

445
00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:50,320
Speaker 8: expectation was not met. And this is the very definition

446
00:20:50,800 --> 00:20:54,240
Speaker 8: of losing control. We're not even two or three days

447
00:20:54,240 --> 00:20:57,400
Speaker 8: into the war and it's already clear they have lost control.

448
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,679
Speaker 8: Look at how they are grasping for straws, not just

449
00:21:00,720 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 8: to find what objectives they should have, but also how

450
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,680
Speaker 8: to justify them. And in that effort they have gone

451
00:21:06,720 --> 00:21:08,400
Speaker 8: as far as to say that Iran is at war

452
00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:11,720
Speaker 8: with civilization, to actually admitting that all of this was

453
00:21:11,720 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 8: done because Israel decided it was time to go there.

454
00:21:15,760 --> 00:21:19,959
Speaker 2: So I want to go back to why Trump let

455
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 2: himself be led around by the nose by Israel, Because

456
00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 2: clearly there was some reluctance from the administration. You know,

457
00:21:27,520 --> 00:21:30,359
Speaker 2: they were concerned you had the top military brass here

458
00:21:30,440 --> 00:21:33,040
Speaker 2: leaking to basically every newspaper they could get a hold

459
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 2: of to say, this is a real problem. We are

460
00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:38,640
Speaker 2: not ready, there's an interceptor issue, this is not going

461
00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 2: to go well, there's tremendous risks here.

462
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 4: And yet, in.

463
00:21:41,840 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 2: Spite of all of that, and in spite of all

464
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,479
Speaker 2: of the very clear campaign promises that you know, we're

465
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,920
Speaker 2: going to play them later, he made Jadvan's made, Toulci

466
00:21:48,960 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 2: Gabbard made RFK junior maid Steven Miller made like every

467
00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,320
Speaker 2: top person in this administration said oh, of course, we're

468
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,520
Speaker 2: not going to go to war with Iran. In spite

469
00:21:57,520 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 2: of all of that, he still ends up making the

470
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:03,240
Speaker 2: decision to do Israel's bidding.

471
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 4: Like, what can explain that?

472
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,679
Speaker 2: Is it just the power of the Israel Is that

473
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:11,680
Speaker 2: Miriam Addelson money? Like how does this calculation get made

474
00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,200
Speaker 2: when you have so many people, from the political people

475
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 2: to the military people, warning that this is going to

476
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:17,440
Speaker 2: be a disaster.

477
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:21,240
Speaker 8: It's really difficult to explain that. I absolutely cannot claim

478
00:22:21,320 --> 00:22:24,440
Speaker 8: to have an answer. I think a part of the answer, though,

479
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:29,280
Speaker 8: is he has been lulled into this belief that everything

480
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 8: he has done has been an absolutely amazing success, and

481
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:36,240
Speaker 8: everything he would did was in contradiction to the conventional

482
00:22:36,240 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 8: wisdom and their advice. They told him that he can't

483
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,160
Speaker 8: move the embassy. He did, nothing happen. They told him

484
00:22:42,160 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 8: that he couldn't recognize the Golan highs. He did, nothing happen.

485
00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:48,080
Speaker 8: They told him, you can't kill Suleimani. He did, in

486
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,800
Speaker 8: his view, nothing happened. They told him that he can't

487
00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 8: take out Foordo. He did. In his view, nothing happened.

488
00:22:53,680 --> 00:22:56,400
Speaker 8: And then of course he did Venezuela. He's on this

489
00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 8: massive sugar high, the mother of all sugar highs. It's

490
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 8: easier for the Israelis under those circumstances to tell him, Look,

491
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,000
Speaker 8: the Iranians are just so weak. All you need to

492
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,359
Speaker 8: do is push a little bit. You're going to be

493
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,800
Speaker 8: the hero. You're going to be the president that finally

494
00:23:11,840 --> 00:23:14,600
Speaker 8: puts an end to this regime. Everyone said that you

495
00:23:14,640 --> 00:23:17,040
Speaker 8: can't do it. That's precisely why you should do it,

496
00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 8: because only you can prove them wrong.

497
00:23:19,520 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 2: So what you may see, maybe they mocked up a

498
00:23:21,680 --> 00:23:24,040
Speaker 2: newspaper cover like us, or I.

499
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 8: Mean, they played to his psychology. The Aonians did not.

500
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:29,960
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, right, and we shouldn't we should say that is,

501
00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,119
Speaker 3: we should fault to their negotiating team as well. But

502
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 3: now we are where we are, and so you know,

503
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 3: what do you see? You said that the Iranians have

504
00:23:37,960 --> 00:23:43,400
Speaker 3: rejected two, maybe three diplomatic overtures from the Trump administration.

505
00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 3: What is the internal logic inside of the regime right now?

506
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,560
Speaker 3: It seems pretty clear that they expected to take mass

507
00:23:50,600 --> 00:23:54,720
Speaker 3: casualties at the top, They have decentralized military command. What

508
00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: is their internal assessment right now? From far as you

509
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 3: can tell, from how they're doing and for what they're planning.

510
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 8: The first thing we have to say to truly understand

511
00:24:03,640 --> 00:24:06,480
Speaker 8: how they're thinking is that they truly unlike these Raelis

512
00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:09,600
Speaker 8: who oftentimes throughout and say, oh, this is existential. For them,

513
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:12,720
Speaker 8: this truly is existential, and this is why they're making

514
00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,399
Speaker 8: the decision of the way they're making it. They believe

515
00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:19,560
Speaker 8: that a premature ceasefire, one in which after the US

516
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:22,520
Speaker 8: has scored a major victory, if they were to accept it,

517
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,280
Speaker 8: all it would do. It would allow the US and

518
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 8: Israel to regroup, remobilize, and then six months later relaunch

519
00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:32,000
Speaker 8: a war. If there's to be a ceasefire, it has

520
00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 8: to be a prolonged and durable one. The only way

521
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:38,400
Speaker 8: the ceasefire could be durable, they believe, is if this

522
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:42,520
Speaker 8: war ends up being tremendously costly to all sides, so

523
00:24:42,560 --> 00:24:45,080
Speaker 8: that all sides believe it was a mistake to start it,

524
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 8: and as a result, believe it would be a mistake

525
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,439
Speaker 8: to restart it if they agreed to a ceasefire too

526
00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,119
Speaker 8: quickly without that cost actually being felt. They believe that

527
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:56,760
Speaker 8: it will only give the other side, the US and Israel,

528
00:24:56,960 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 8: time to be able to regroup and then once again attack, Yvonne.

529
00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 8: This is the conclusion they drew after agreeing to ceasefire

530
00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:06,800
Speaker 8: in June. Many of them believe that it was premature.

531
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:09,159
Speaker 8: Many of them believe that these Radis were in a very,

532
00:25:09,240 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 8: very bad situation because they had run out of interceptors,

533
00:25:12,200 --> 00:25:14,240
Speaker 8: and it was a mistake for the Iranians to agree

534
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 8: to that ceasefire and they're paying for that mistake now.

535
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 2: I mean, that was another incredible moment for Rubio as

536
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 2: he also talked about that interceptor you'd made it. Yeah,

537
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,639
Speaker 2: he talked about, you know, they've got these drones and

538
00:25:24,640 --> 00:25:27,320
Speaker 2: they're very inexpensive, and meanwhile we're shooting all these intercepts

539
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 2: or we can't. They can make the drones much more

540
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,560
Speaker 2: quickly than we can make the interceptors. It's like, okay,

541
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 2: then why are we doing this if that's not thing.

542
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 8: Once you're in this situation and you recognize that logic,

543
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:41,240
Speaker 8: which they should have recognized before, it actually pushes them

544
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 8: to go all out as well. And that is what

545
00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:45,600
Speaker 8: I think we're going to see in the next couple

546
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:47,000
Speaker 8: of days. Trump is going to.

547
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 2: Throw it where about what you yeah, tell me more

548
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,959
Speaker 2: about what you mean by that, And just to you know,

549
00:25:52,080 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 2: as a little preamble here, we can put a nine

550
00:25:53,840 --> 00:25:56,040
Speaker 2: up on the screen. We now know at least six

551
00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:00,240
Speaker 2: Americans have been killed in action, at least eighteen have

552
00:26:00,359 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 2: been seriously wounded. You have US embassies that are being

553
00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:07,879
Speaker 2: attacked in a number of countries, both by Iran and

554
00:26:07,920 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 2: also by local people. We know now we have confirmation

555
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 2: that US Marines we're shooting at civilian rioters at the

556
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,040
Speaker 2: US embassy in Karachi in Pakistan. We can put a

557
00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 2: eleven up on the screen. So already this straight up

558
00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:24,760
Speaker 2: horror moves was sort of de facto closed because the

559
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 2: insurers pulled the plug on shipping traffics, and basically we're

560
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:29,399
Speaker 2: not going to injure you, or we're going to jack

561
00:26:29,480 --> 00:26:33,080
Speaker 2: up the price extraordinarily. Now Reuter's is reporting Iran is

562
00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:36,680
Speaker 2: notifying vessels it is officially closing the Straight of Hormus.

563
00:26:36,960 --> 00:26:39,400
Speaker 2: If officially closed, twenty plus million barrels of oil per

564
00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 2: day will be impacted, twenty percent of global supply. Qatar

565
00:26:43,200 --> 00:26:46,840
Speaker 2: has cut off their LNG production. Gas prices in Europe

566
00:26:46,960 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 2: have already skyrocketed some fifty percent. So when you say

567
00:26:51,240 --> 00:26:53,959
Speaker 2: we're going to throw everything that we have at it

568
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 2: and we're going to go big, you know what does

569
00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 2: that actually in effect look like.

570
00:26:58,480 --> 00:26:59,960
Speaker 8: Let me start off by just saying one of the

571
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:01,960
Speaker 8: thing that I think is important. Just a couple of days,

572
00:27:02,000 --> 00:27:05,240
Speaker 8: about three days before Trump decided to start this war,

573
00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:07,959
Speaker 8: I was in a closed meeting with a bunch of

574
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 8: former officials, analysts, military people, and the general view in

575
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:17,239
Speaker 8: the room was the Vonians would never do this. They

576
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,800
Speaker 8: will never close the straits, they would never attack the

577
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,560
Speaker 8: GCC states. It would be too costly for them. And

578
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,959
Speaker 8: I think it reflected the fact that this had not

579
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 8: really dawned upon people. The manner in which Trump is

580
00:27:29,320 --> 00:27:32,880
Speaker 8: doing this is making a clear signal to Devonians. This

581
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 8: is an existential fight, and in an existential fight, they're

582
00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:38,120
Speaker 8: not going to think about tomorrow. They're not going to

583
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:40,960
Speaker 8: think about what GCC round relations are going to be

584
00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:42,919
Speaker 8: a year from now. They're going to think about how

585
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 8: they survive this war. And as a result, decisions that

586
00:27:45,760 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 8: were perceived to be unthinkable just empty threats from the

587
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 8: Varnians we are now seeing happening on a daily basis.

588
00:27:52,280 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 8: As you pointed out the closing of the straits, and

589
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 8: again I think it shows the profound miscalculation, although of

590
00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:01,840
Speaker 8: course those people in the room were not the decision makers.

591
00:28:01,920 --> 00:28:05,520
Speaker 8: I think it reflects what also decision makers have been

592
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 8: thinking about this. I think what is happening now is

593
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:12,119
Speaker 8: that because of this essential I wouldn't call it panic,

594
00:28:12,160 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 8: but really scrambling to try to figure out a new plan.

595
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 8: The emphasis is going to be to throw everything at

596
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,560
Speaker 8: the Iranians. I think we're going to see significant bombardment.

597
00:28:22,960 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 8: We're going to see an effort to use the Kurds

598
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:29,399
Speaker 8: in order to launch attacks in the Kurdish areas in

599
00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,920
Speaker 8: the absence of other ground troops, although I wouldn't be

600
00:28:32,000 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 8: surprised if there may be some Israeli ground troops with

601
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:38,600
Speaker 8: the Kurds, although the Kurdish numbers are not very high.

602
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:40,719
Speaker 8: It's not so much that this actually would end up

603
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 8: becoming like a real invasion, but something that would be

604
00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 8: further effort to try to cause Tehran to lose control

605
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:50,640
Speaker 8: of the largest situation. If the Iranians are trying to

606
00:28:50,640 --> 00:28:53,200
Speaker 8: expand the theater of war into areas that the US

607
00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 8: wasn't ready for. The US is responding in kind. But

608
00:28:55,880 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 8: bottom line is we're seeing that the original plans didn't

609
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,840
Speaker 8: even survive the first five seconds of reality.

610
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 3: Yeah right, yeah, I mean already this is a full

611
00:29:04,440 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 3: blown regional conflict, which, as you said, and by the way,

612
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 3: Trump admitted, you don't just have to listen to you.

613
00:29:08,680 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 3: We were surprised that they attacked the golf countries. He

614
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 3: has caused absolute chaos. The State Department saying this morning,

615
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:18,760
Speaker 3: all citizens in the Golf should leave, all of them,

616
00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,560
Speaker 3: by the way, good luck leaving. All of the airports

617
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 3: are closed. The US Ambassador Mike Huckabee is putting out

618
00:29:24,640 --> 00:29:27,400
Speaker 3: guidance about how to get on a bus from Israel

619
00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 3: to the Sinai Peninsula and then hopefully be able to

620
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:33,479
Speaker 3: catch a flight from there to somewhere else before they

621
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,880
Speaker 3: can eventually get the hell out. There's over a million

622
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 3: Americans who live in the region. I used to be

623
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:40,760
Speaker 3: one of them. But sticking with that, sir, let's put

624
00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 3: a ten up here on the screen, just so you

625
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:46,800
Speaker 3: can already see huge strikes in the middle of Tehran

626
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 3: in the middle of daylight. I mean, God only knows

627
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:52,600
Speaker 3: the number of people that have already been killed. But

628
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,480
Speaker 3: many of the reports coming out of Iran saying that

629
00:29:55,520 --> 00:29:59,920
Speaker 3: the Israeli strikes are specifically targeting these police stations. As

630
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:03,280
Speaker 3: as you said, the internal logic right now for the

631
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:05,360
Speaker 3: golf and for the United States is that this is

632
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:10,080
Speaker 3: already intolerable from a munition's depletion standpoint for interceptors, which

633
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,720
Speaker 3: means that they have to go all out bombard the

634
00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:16,440
Speaker 3: country as much as humanly possible and try to basically

635
00:30:16,480 --> 00:30:19,600
Speaker 3: erode their capacity to fight. This is the North Vietnam

636
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: bombing strategic logic of many, many decades. Of course, it

637
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,800
Speaker 3: doesn't work if you have a population and a regime

638
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 3: which is hardened in its belief that it is completely existential.

639
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 3: So let's say we do get this massive bombardment an

640
00:30:34,320 --> 00:30:38,320
Speaker 3: effect effective trying for to collapse the state. Let's say

641
00:30:38,360 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 3: they do take out the missile launchers, what's next from

642
00:30:41,520 --> 00:30:44,440
Speaker 3: that point because the regime itself will still be intact,

643
00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: and it's not like Trump and Israel can just declare victory.

644
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 8: Again. I don't think there is much of a plan.

645
00:30:50,640 --> 00:30:53,000
Speaker 8: The hope was that now they're targeting a lot of

646
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:59,080
Speaker 8: police stations, IRGC headquarters, besiege headquarters. The hope is that

647
00:30:59,160 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 8: this eventually will lead to a regime implosion, because the

648
00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,120
Speaker 8: repressive capabilities of the state will be eroded, and then

649
00:31:05,160 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 8: magically people will rise up and take over. And you know,

650
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:12,440
Speaker 8: there is some basis to believe that something like this

651
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 8: could happen. To bet an entire war. That it will

652
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 8: happen is a completely different story. I go back to

653
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,480
Speaker 8: what I said on this show several times. I repeated

654
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:24,120
Speaker 8: it as often as I could in every interview. Trump

655
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,800
Speaker 8: has been led to believe that Iran is much weaker

656
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 8: than it is, and as a result, he's gone down

657
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 8: this path. And now we're discovering that it is not

658
00:31:31,760 --> 00:31:34,760
Speaker 8: that simple. As you mentioned, the problems for people for

659
00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 8: Americans to leave the GCC states, even leaving Israel. At

660
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 8: this point, I spoke to a friend who was traveling.

661
00:31:40,560 --> 00:31:43,640
Speaker 8: He was in Dubai, can't get out, had to take

662
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 8: a cab all the way to Oman. That border to

663
00:31:46,440 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 8: Oman between the U and of Oman was just completely

664
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 8: overloaded with people trying to escape Dubai and try to

665
00:31:52,520 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 8: find a flight out of the Arabian Peninsula. Clearly no

666
00:31:57,080 --> 00:31:59,720
Speaker 8: planning whatsoever from any side for this to be able

667
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 8: to have, and yet the riding was on the wall.

668
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:05,800
Speaker 2: Well, I mean, we've been listening to Professor Robert Pape,

669
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 2: who's expert on warfare and airpower in particular. In one

670
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:12,080
Speaker 2: hundred years of trying this, there's never been a successful,

671
00:32:12,080 --> 00:32:16,320
Speaker 2: a successful regime change just using air power. We also

672
00:32:16,360 --> 00:32:19,280
Speaker 2: have the recent example of Gaza, which obviously is much

673
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:24,080
Speaker 2: smaller and where the Israelis with our assistance, bombed the

674
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,440
Speaker 2: hell of it out of it, reduced it all to

675
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:30,080
Speaker 2: rubble effectively, and had a ground invasion and still were

676
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:34,760
Speaker 2: not able to dislodge Humas from power. So the you know,

677
00:32:34,800 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: the arrogance, the delusion here is just extraordinary to me

678
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 2: as someone who was not expert on these things whatsoever.

679
00:32:42,280 --> 00:32:44,080
Speaker 2: Last question I had for you is, you know, I

680
00:32:44,120 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 2: was watching that bombardment of Tehran, looking at the fact

681
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 2: that they've already targeted.

682
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:50,280
Speaker 4: Some nine hospitals.

683
00:32:50,560 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 2: Obviously, little girls massacred, over one hundred and sixty of

684
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 2: them at a school. Another school, I think a girl's

685
00:32:56,400 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 2: volleyball team was killed. Are they since the initial let's

686
00:33:01,880 --> 00:33:05,240
Speaker 2: try to collapse the regime didn't work out, are they

687
00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:08,480
Speaker 2: now going to pursue effectively the same strategy they pursued

688
00:33:08,520 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 2: in Gaza.

689
00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 8: It appears that at least on a couple of occasions

690
00:33:12,080 --> 00:33:15,160
Speaker 8: that has happened, we've seen evidence of double tap attacks.

691
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,720
Speaker 8: There's a video of an Iranian woman who actually doesn't

692
00:33:17,760 --> 00:33:19,760
Speaker 8: live in Iran, I don't know if she's Iranian American,

693
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:22,920
Speaker 8: who is crying and said that they struck this hotel.

694
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,320
Speaker 8: When people rushed in to try to help it, they

695
00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 8: struck again. So evidence of these double taps are now emerging.

696
00:33:29,040 --> 00:33:31,720
Speaker 8: One thing I have to say, though, I'm sorry to

697
00:33:31,800 --> 00:33:33,840
Speaker 8: raise this, but I was on BBC last night and

698
00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:38,600
Speaker 8: they aired tapes or reconstruction of tapes of three voices

699
00:33:38,600 --> 00:33:41,880
Speaker 8: from Iran that they claim to have spoken to, who

700
00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:44,360
Speaker 8: all were praising these bombings. I mean, one of them

701
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 8: was saying that you know, we're applauding every time to

702
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 8: hear a bomb without a doubt. I do believe that

703
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:53,200
Speaker 8: there is some level of support inside of Iran for

704
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 8: this campaign. Certainly there's a degree of support, although I

705
00:33:56,480 --> 00:34:00,960
Speaker 8: think it's exaggerated in the diaspora. But BBC aired three

706
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 8: voices who all said the same thing, given the viewers

707
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 8: the impression that this is a liberation board, that the

708
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:09,480
Speaker 8: people inside of Iran are just yearning to be bombed.

709
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 8: And I had to call them out on and I said,

710
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:13,839
Speaker 8: this is worse than the Iraq war propaganda that I've seen,

711
00:34:13,880 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 8: because you know very well that there's a diversity of

712
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 8: us inside the country, yet you only aired one type

713
00:34:19,440 --> 00:34:22,200
Speaker 8: of a voice and give people the impression that everyone

714
00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:24,640
Speaker 8: is welcoming this for which is absolutely not the case.

715
00:34:24,920 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's outrageous. And we've been watching this happen in

716
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:31,240
Speaker 3: our own There are ninety two million people in Iran.

717
00:34:31,360 --> 00:34:35,800
Speaker 3: Ninety two million? Did three? Maybe what about the rest?

718
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,640
Speaker 3: How do we have any idea and how have we

719
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 3: not seen this story? I've seen plenty of videos. Yeah,

720
00:34:42,160 --> 00:34:44,399
Speaker 3: I've seen plenty videos. I'm sure you have too, of

721
00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,920
Speaker 3: like secular looking people who are like we will stand

722
00:34:46,960 --> 00:34:49,480
Speaker 3: and fight to the death against the United States and

723
00:34:49,520 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 3: against Israel in the streets of Tehran could be selective

724
00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:55,640
Speaker 3: regime propaganda. I'm not going to take that fully as

725
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 3: the only voice, but of course that voice exists too.

726
00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:01,920
Speaker 3: It's completely irresponsible to say that it doesn't. And at

727
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 3: this point, I mean the history of nationalism. Even in

728
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 3: countries which are being externally bombed with you know, external

729
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: pressure to be applied, many are not willing to just

730
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:15,239
Speaker 3: play ball with the imperial aggressor. But as you know,

731
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 3: even if they do disagree with the internal politics, which

732
00:35:18,440 --> 00:35:20,719
Speaker 3: is quite literally the story of Iraq. I mean, I

733
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:23,279
Speaker 3: guess the final thing that we wanted to I guess

734
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:25,440
Speaker 3: wanted to talk to you a little bit about here

735
00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 3: is with this logic up along the escalation ladder, the

736
00:35:30,200 --> 00:35:34,760
Speaker 3: consuming of the Gulf States, every story Top Wall Street, Journal,

737
00:35:34,760 --> 00:35:37,600
Speaker 3: Bloomberg is interceptors are running out in the golf by

738
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 3: the way, even these golf got I mean, I'm reading

739
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:44,120
Speaker 3: stories they're shooting Patriot four million dollar missiles at Shahad drones,

740
00:35:44,160 --> 00:35:45,719
Speaker 3: which cost twenty thousand dollars.

741
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:48,359
Speaker 1: They're going to be out within a week, maybe a month.

742
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 3: We don't exactly know the number if that happens, and

743
00:35:51,560 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 3: we see a conflagration. Already, Saudi Ramco is under threat.

744
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 3: They're saying that they're going to avoid the Straits of Hormuz,

745
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:01,800
Speaker 3: move oil through the Red Sea via pipeline. Qatar LNG

746
00:36:02,000 --> 00:36:04,839
Speaker 3: has already shut down Iran, saying this morning they may

747
00:36:04,920 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 3: even attack Europe. When we see a depletion of that

748
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:11,000
Speaker 3: and we see this actually globalized into a major war,

749
00:36:11,360 --> 00:36:14,719
Speaker 3: what does that look like from a global perspective, not

750
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:17,320
Speaker 3: only impact on the United States, but broadly for a

751
00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,480
Speaker 3: regional and global picture for our geopolitics.

752
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:24,479
Speaker 8: We don't know, because the planner who didn't think this through.

753
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 8: I mean, this is truly unprecedented. The Iranians have struck

754
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:32,880
Speaker 8: or tried to strike Cyprus, where the Brits have been

755
00:36:32,960 --> 00:36:35,719
Speaker 8: using a base that was extremely active in the genocide

756
00:36:35,719 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 8: against Gaza, but apparently also had played a role in

757
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 8: some of the attacks on Iran. It may also be

758
00:36:40,440 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 8: a retaliation for the Brits allowing Garcia to be used

759
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,360
Speaker 8: by the United States after first having resisted. The Iranians

760
00:36:48,440 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 8: cannot reach out, so perhaps deystruckt the Cypress base short

761
00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,000
Speaker 8: of that, But we also see what's now happening between

762
00:36:54,000 --> 00:36:56,640
Speaker 8: Europe and Russia. Europe is now putting pressure on the

763
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 8: Ukrainians to allow Russian gas and oil to come into

764
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 8: Europe because now they're suffering from an astute fuel shortage

765
00:37:04,560 --> 00:37:07,080
Speaker 8: that has been made much much worse because of this war.

766
00:37:07,840 --> 00:37:10,720
Speaker 8: I mean, life as a vassal is clearly not particularly easy,

767
00:37:10,880 --> 00:37:13,359
Speaker 8: since you have put your own destiny in the hands

768
00:37:13,400 --> 00:37:16,319
Speaker 8: of someone else. But the Europeans, to chose to become

769
00:37:16,400 --> 00:37:18,319
Speaker 8: vassals of the United States in this matter, are not

770
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 8: paying the price for it now. Will this then eventually

771
00:37:21,520 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 8: lead to a scenario in which the Russians and the Chinese,

772
00:37:23,960 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 8: one way or another, are also dragged into it. The

773
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:29,879
Speaker 8: conventional wisdom has always been that the Russians, at least

774
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:32,080
Speaker 8: the Chinese will do everything they can to stay out

775
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 8: of this. The Russians are not going to jeopardize their

776
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,680
Speaker 8: prospects for a deal to end the Ukraine Wars in

777
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:40,799
Speaker 8: order to help the Iranians. But if this expands in

778
00:37:40,840 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 8: an uncontrolla uncontrollable way, then we cannot say exactly what

779
00:37:45,400 --> 00:37:47,560
Speaker 8: the response of some of these other countries will be.

780
00:37:47,800 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 8: We're also seeing right now other things. We're seeing that

781
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 8: in Bahrain there are riots taking place. There's some reports

782
00:37:53,680 --> 00:37:56,600
Speaker 8: that the Saudis have stepped in into Bahrain again to

783
00:37:56,640 --> 00:38:00,600
Speaker 8: clamp down on those protests, as they did in twenty eleven. Rain,

784
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:04,080
Speaker 8: of course, used to be Iranian territory. It's majority Shia,

785
00:38:04,160 --> 00:38:07,399
Speaker 8: so we're already seeing the kind of repercussions that most

786
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:10,200
Speaker 8: people thought would only happen in the worst case scenario.

787
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:12,160
Speaker 8: We're three days into it. We're already in the worst

788
00:38:12,200 --> 00:38:13,280
Speaker 8: case scenario in that sense.

789
00:38:13,800 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 2: Unbelievable, just absolutely unbelievable, Doctor Parsi, thank you as always.

790
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 8: Thank you, sir, thank you so much for having me.

791
00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 3: Turning now to the Golf situation, which we just talked

792
00:38:24,560 --> 00:38:28,560
Speaker 3: about with doctor Trita Parsi, the entire region and flame

793
00:38:28,840 --> 00:38:31,719
Speaker 3: and also deeply afraid of what it means if they

794
00:38:31,800 --> 00:38:34,319
Speaker 3: run out of interceptors. We did want to start though,

795
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:38,640
Speaker 3: with this extraordinary accusation by Tucker Carlson reporting that there

796
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:42,840
Speaker 3: were MOSAD plots and agents arrested by two different golf

797
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:46,400
Speaker 3: countries trying to foment terror and chaos in these countries.

798
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: Let's take a listen.

799
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:49,880
Speaker 9: It really really hurts these countries, and Israel wanted to

800
00:38:49,920 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 9: hurt these countries. That's the point, wanted to hurt these countries,

801
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,640
Speaker 9: wanted to show chaos and disorder because they are rivals

802
00:38:56,760 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 9: of Israel. So it's probably not hasn't been reported, but

803
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:05,160
Speaker 9: it's fact that last night in Qatar and Saudi Arabia,

804
00:39:05,200 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 9: authorities arrested MASAD agents planning on committing bombings in those countries.

805
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 9: Now that's weird, that doesn't make any sense. Why would

806
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:20,640
Speaker 9: the Israelis be committing bombings in two golf countries which

807
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,920
Speaker 9: are also being attacked by Iran. Aren't they on the

808
00:39:22,960 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 9: same side.

809
00:39:24,840 --> 00:39:31,120
Speaker 10: No, No, Israel wants to hurt Iran and Qatar and

810
00:39:31,360 --> 00:39:35,520
Speaker 10: Eway and Saudi and Bahrain and Oman and Kuwait.

811
00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 3: Extraordinary claim there by Tucker Carlson and obviously highlighting the

812
00:39:39,200 --> 00:39:42,080
Speaker 3: bigger strategic picture that we picked off our entire show

813
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,879
Speaker 3: is this is Israel's war. There's really not a whole

814
00:39:44,920 --> 00:39:47,279
Speaker 3: lot in here for the United States. We've depleted our

815
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:50,239
Speaker 3: interceptor stockpile. We've now made a mockery of all of

816
00:39:50,239 --> 00:39:52,160
Speaker 3: these golf country You know how many billions of dollargies

817
00:39:52,160 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 3: in golf countries have spent on US.

818
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,200
Speaker 1: I mean it's probably hundreds of billions if.

819
00:39:56,040 --> 00:39:58,399
Speaker 3: You total all of it together where they're like, look,

820
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,440
Speaker 3: we buy all your weapons, you get to keep our

821
00:40:01,080 --> 00:40:03,040
Speaker 3: you get to keep your bases here to support the

822
00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:06,320
Speaker 3: war in Iraq. We get to have a literal monarchy

823
00:40:06,600 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 3: and it's all cool, and we have a ton of

824
00:40:08,200 --> 00:40:09,120
Speaker 3: oil and you buy it.

825
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:09,719
Speaker 1: That's it.

826
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:13,360
Speaker 3: So it's security in exchange for monarchy. Everybody's kind of

827
00:40:13,360 --> 00:40:15,879
Speaker 3: done a handshake deal around that. That's all being blown

828
00:40:15,960 --> 00:40:18,879
Speaker 3: up their entire vision before the world. Let's go ahead

829
00:40:18,880 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 3: and put some of this vo that we have up

830
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,239
Speaker 3: here on the screen. In each of these cases, we're

831
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:28,000
Speaker 3: showing you the region is literally inflame. So you've got

832
00:40:28,040 --> 00:40:30,279
Speaker 3: Tel Aviv in the middle of last night. This is

833
00:40:30,280 --> 00:40:32,440
Speaker 3: all just from last night. You've got missiles that are

834
00:40:32,440 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 3: flying around the screen. You can see some of the

835
00:40:34,560 --> 00:40:38,360
Speaker 3: interceptors that come multiple interceptors that they're having to fire.

836
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 1: This one was in Doha.

837
00:40:40,239 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 8: Guitar.

838
00:40:40,600 --> 00:40:43,439
Speaker 3: I mean, this is genuinely shocking, Like it's crazy. Look

839
00:40:43,440 --> 00:40:45,319
Speaker 3: at the amount of interceptors and all that are being

840
00:40:45,360 --> 00:40:48,960
Speaker 3: fired up into the sky to intercept either drones or

841
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:52,360
Speaker 3: missiles that are coming in towards them. These people have

842
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:56,520
Speaker 3: never seen anything like this. This was video which was

843
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,600
Speaker 3: actually on the border of Saudi Arabia and of Bahrain.

844
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 3: As riots continue to break out in Bahrain, which has

845
00:41:03,000 --> 00:41:05,880
Speaker 3: a large Shia population which you can see in front

846
00:41:05,920 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 3: of you, Saudi Arabia is having to dispatch some security

847
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,880
Speaker 3: forces potentially to try and crush those riots, just like

848
00:41:11,920 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 3: they did in the middle of the Arab Spring. So

849
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:18,560
Speaker 3: your foundation of their society is now in question. From Bahrain,

850
00:41:18,600 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 3: which is the home of the Fifth Fleet, tens of

851
00:41:20,200 --> 00:41:24,880
Speaker 3: thousands of Americans. Kuwait, of course their long security relationship

852
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 3: with the US.

853
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:26,320
Speaker 1: Iraq.

854
00:41:26,440 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 3: This morning, which somewhat allegedly was our protectorate or kind

855
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,320
Speaker 3: of was whenever we invaded and occupied it for I

856
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:35,600
Speaker 3: don't know, like twenty years, just had to shut down

857
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 3: their largest oil field, Saudi Arabia this morning. The US

858
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:43,000
Speaker 3: Embassy in Saudi Arabia issuing a explicit notice that they

859
00:41:43,000 --> 00:41:46,680
Speaker 3: have incoming missile and UAV attacks on dah Ran.

860
00:41:46,840 --> 00:41:48,759
Speaker 1: If you don't know what, Doron is, the home of

861
00:41:48,800 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: the Saudi.

862
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:53,720
Speaker 3: Aramco compound and of the largest oil facility in the world.

863
00:41:54,000 --> 00:41:57,520
Speaker 3: In addition, we had the Saudi Embassy which was or

864
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,960
Speaker 3: the US Embassy in Riod was hit by drone yesterday

865
00:42:01,080 --> 00:42:03,919
Speaker 3: and apparently the roof was caved in three different drone

866
00:42:03,960 --> 00:42:05,960
Speaker 3: attacks that hit the US. I mean, do you know

867
00:42:06,000 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 3: how insane a single attack on a US embassy is

868
00:42:09,160 --> 00:42:12,040
Speaker 3: an international story. The US embassy in Riahat has now

869
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 3: been hit. The US embassy in Baghdad was basically under

870
00:42:15,560 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 3: siege for two days straight. You've got now confirmed reports.

871
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 3: We were careful. We talked about this yesterday. The United

872
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,160
Speaker 3: States military is now confirming vi A Reuters that marines

873
00:42:24,400 --> 00:42:28,000
Speaker 3: fired on people in Pakistan. Sure that's going to go over. Well,

874
00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:30,520
Speaker 3: That's going to go over real well in Pakistan, isn't it.

875
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 3: Pakistani protesters killed by American marines in the middle of

876
00:42:34,239 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 3: a consulate in a massive protest where people are shooting

877
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,280
Speaker 3: at each other. This is full blown chaos all over

878
00:42:40,440 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 3: the entire world, and then bigger. What really belies all

879
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,239
Speaker 3: of this is this story. Let's put B three up

880
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:49,480
Speaker 3: here on the screen. The UAE and Katar are urging

881
00:42:49,600 --> 00:42:52,399
Speaker 3: allies to urge allies to help Trump find an off

882
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 3: ramp and largely interceptor stocks. Front page of the Wall

883
00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 3: Street Journal literally this morning is about the number of

884
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 3: interceptors that these trees are firing. They're four I mean,

885
00:43:02,080 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 3: just think about the math here, four million dollar patriot

886
00:43:04,760 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 3: against a twenty thousand dollars drone. They say that they

887
00:43:07,200 --> 00:43:10,520
Speaker 3: might be done in a matter of a week, perhaps days.

888
00:43:10,920 --> 00:43:13,400
Speaker 3: And then what the hell is going to happen to

889
00:43:13,480 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 3: the Burj Khalifa or the Queen Elizabeth Hotel or in Doha,

890
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 3: I mean, the Ritz Car, all of these famous hotels.

891
00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:25,760
Speaker 3: What did Professor jeongsay yesterday? Water desalination plants, the dams

892
00:43:25,880 --> 00:43:28,600
Speaker 3: which are all over the country for water supply. What

893
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 3: about Qatar LNG has already done. Qatar LNG announced this

894
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,640
Speaker 3: morning they're shutting down all downstream production, not just LNG

895
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:39,000
Speaker 3: production of everything is happening. The Iraq oil field is down,

896
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,399
Speaker 3: The Saudi Aramco is basically notifying its suppliers that they're

897
00:43:42,440 --> 00:43:43,960
Speaker 3: going to have to pick up from somewhere else to

898
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:45,319
Speaker 3: avoid the straits of the.

899
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 1: Disruption across the Gulf.

900
00:43:47,360 --> 00:43:49,640
Speaker 3: It will take them years to recover from this, you know,

901
00:43:49,719 --> 00:43:52,440
Speaker 3: structure militarily, what are they going to do? And then

902
00:43:52,480 --> 00:43:55,880
Speaker 3: brand wise, Oh my god, you've got probably a million

903
00:43:55,920 --> 00:43:59,040
Speaker 3: plus maybe two million Americans who are now stranded all

904
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:00,520
Speaker 3: across the entire golf.

905
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,359
Speaker 1: I mean, these are like very rich people like oil.

906
00:44:03,560 --> 00:44:06,040
Speaker 1: I used to live there. I'm telling you, like, I

907
00:44:06,040 --> 00:44:07,440
Speaker 1: went to the American School of Doha.

908
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 3: Every other kid is like, oh, my dad works at

909
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:12,760
Speaker 3: Exon or whatever. Imagine you've been living there for a decade,

910
00:44:12,960 --> 00:44:16,879
Speaker 3: You're drinking Margarita's the Intercontinental Hotel, and the next day

911
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:18,880
Speaker 3: you are literally trying to get the hell out of

912
00:44:18,880 --> 00:44:19,320
Speaker 3: the country.

913
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,280
Speaker 1: But you can't. You literally can't.

914
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:23,759
Speaker 2: All the people who go and vacation there, you know,

915
00:44:23,840 --> 00:44:26,960
Speaker 2: again very high end luxury, Like do you think that

916
00:44:27,000 --> 00:44:29,840
Speaker 2: they're going to be rushing back for their Dubai vacation

917
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,960
Speaker 2: after seeing luxury hotels going up and flame? And this

918
00:44:33,000 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 2: is what their whole economy and image is built around.

919
00:44:36,719 --> 00:44:39,319
Speaker 2: So that's why it's so long term devastating to them.

920
00:44:39,719 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 2: To your point, Zager, about that Wall Street Journal front

921
00:44:41,840 --> 00:44:45,640
Speaker 2: page article on the Interceptor's math math, which again Marco

922
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,160
Speaker 2: Rubio himself came out and was talking about quite openly.

923
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 4: Yesterday.

924
00:44:48,920 --> 00:44:51,040
Speaker 2: Now, Donald Trump put on a truth social post saying

925
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:52,560
Speaker 2: that we could do war forever and it wouldn't be

926
00:44:52,600 --> 00:44:54,799
Speaker 2: a problem. I'll ask you to you know which which

927
00:44:54,880 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 2: version you'd believe. But in any case, they quote this

928
00:44:57,600 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 2: expert who says, the intensity of interceptor usage that we

929
00:45:01,600 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 2: have seen over the last couple of days cannot be

930
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:08,480
Speaker 2: maintained for more than another week, a week, probably a

931
00:45:08,520 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 2: couple of days at most, and then they will feel

932
00:45:11,719 --> 00:45:14,920
Speaker 2: the pain of interceptor shortage. That is from Fabian Hoffman,

933
00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:17,640
Speaker 2: a missile expert at the University of Oslo.

934
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 4: So that's where we're at.

935
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:25,320
Speaker 2: And the Iranians number one, they have an asymmetric interest

936
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:27,840
Speaker 2: in this fight. So of course they're outmatched by the

937
00:45:27,840 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 2: amount of firepower that we have in Israel and all

938
00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:31,319
Speaker 2: of our allies, all the weapons we sold them over

939
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:33,239
Speaker 2: the years, blah blah blah. But they have one thing

940
00:45:33,280 --> 00:45:37,280
Speaker 2: going for them, which is that it's truly an existential struggle.

941
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,719
Speaker 2: This means so much more to that. I mean, how

942
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 2: how much do you care about this? You just probably

943
00:45:43,080 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 2: want us to end this war?

944
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 4: Right?

945
00:45:44,880 --> 00:45:49,919
Speaker 2: They know that this is truly truly existential for them.

946
00:45:50,520 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 2: We couldn't defeat the frickin' hoofies right armed with much

947
00:45:54,120 --> 00:45:57,840
Speaker 2: cruder arms and much lower level of supply, because ultimately,

948
00:45:57,880 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, we didn't care enough

949
00:45:59,480 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 2: to be able to you know, when they saw the

950
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:05,240
Speaker 2: fight as more important, we spent twenty years in Afghanistan

951
00:46:05,320 --> 00:46:07,799
Speaker 2: with all of our weaponry and a ground invasion. And

952
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:09,560
Speaker 2: at the end of those twenty years when we left,

953
00:46:09,560 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 2: guess who came back into power the Taliban. Why because

954
00:46:12,920 --> 00:46:15,279
Speaker 2: they cared much more than we did at the I mean,

955
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,760
Speaker 2: that's what really has screwed us. That is the lesson

956
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 2: that should have been learned over all these many years

957
00:46:22,520 --> 00:46:26,280
Speaker 2: when you were attacking people's lives, when you're attacking a government,

958
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 2: when you're threatening its existence, they will fight to the death.

959
00:46:30,440 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 2: And the American people are not bought in for this

960
00:46:33,120 --> 00:46:33,640
Speaker 2: at all.

961
00:46:33,760 --> 00:46:36,479
Speaker 4: They are not willing to accept any of this pain.

962
00:46:36,840 --> 00:46:39,479
Speaker 2: Like the six service members who have already been killed

963
00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 2: in action is six to many, no one, virtually, no

964
00:46:44,080 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 2: one outside of this small area and some you know,

965
00:46:46,800 --> 00:46:50,440
Speaker 2: people in the Iranian diaspora here are really excited and

966
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 2: enthused and motivated to suffer in any sort of way

967
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 2: for this. And yet we can already see, I mean,

968
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 2: doctor parties said it. It is already spiraled.

969
00:46:59,200 --> 00:47:00,000
Speaker 4: Out of control.

970
00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:02,880
Speaker 2: And to go back to Israel's motivation here with allegedly

971
00:47:02,960 --> 00:47:06,799
Speaker 2: sending massad agents in to commit terror attacks, which it's

972
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:09,319
Speaker 2: not confirmed, but I certainly don't put it past them.

973
00:47:09,800 --> 00:47:12,439
Speaker 2: The logic of that is that not only do they

974
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:14,799
Speaker 2: have an interest in just sewing chaos everywhere. We're going

975
00:47:14,840 --> 00:47:16,760
Speaker 2: to talk to Scott Horton about how they're now openly

976
00:47:16,760 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 2: advertising like, eh, Turkey's next, you know, after Iran, next

977
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 2: threat is Turkey. But also they want to they want

978
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:26,360
Speaker 2: to create these false flag attacks so that the Golf

979
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:29,040
Speaker 2: States are fully bought into the war too, that they

980
00:47:29,160 --> 00:47:33,040
Speaker 2: also want to fully engage. So that's what Israel's constantly

981
00:47:33,040 --> 00:47:36,120
Speaker 2: pushing for US and for all of the GCC to

982
00:47:36,239 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 2: be fully in to this war. That is what serves

983
00:47:39,520 --> 00:47:41,600
Speaker 2: their interest and so that is what they're trying to foment.

984
00:47:41,760 --> 00:47:43,480
Speaker 3: Right put C four up there on the screen, just

985
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 3: to highlight again the problem and why this is really

986
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 3: diminished the United States.

987
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 1: This is from the Middle East eye.

988
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 3: US is stonewalling request by Golf States to replenish interceptors.

989
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:55,920
Speaker 3: One Golf States sought reassurances on US commitment to air

990
00:47:55,960 --> 00:47:59,319
Speaker 3: defense when discussing access to its bases. Again, by the way,

991
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:03,720
Speaker 3: Katar and the UAE highly dispute that original Bloomberg report.

992
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,960
Speaker 3: They're like, we're fine, we have plenty of interceptors. Apparently

993
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:10,160
Speaker 3: that's the new line. Donald Trump actually put out a

994
00:48:10,239 --> 00:48:12,200
Speaker 3: truth social in the middle of the night. Let me

995
00:48:12,239 --> 00:48:13,880
Speaker 3: read it to you, because this is actually one of

996
00:48:13,880 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 3: the most unhinged, dangerous things that he has said.

997
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:17,320
Speaker 1: Maybe we'll add this in posts.

998
00:48:17,480 --> 00:48:20,160
Speaker 3: The United States munition stockpiles have at the medium and

999
00:48:20,239 --> 00:48:23,279
Speaker 3: upper grade never been higher or better. Not true, as

1000
00:48:23,320 --> 00:48:25,760
Speaker 3: we stated to me today, we have virtually unlimited supply

1001
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 3: of these weapons.

1002
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:27,000
Speaker 8: Not true.

1003
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:30,480
Speaker 3: Wars can be fought forever very successfully, yes, but not

1004
00:48:30,560 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 3: with interceptors. Maybe with dummy bombs, jade ams and some bullets,

1005
00:48:34,040 --> 00:48:36,239
Speaker 3: but in that scenario you're going to be taking a

1006
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 3: shit pot of casualties. Wars can be fought forever using

1007
00:48:40,360 --> 00:48:43,280
Speaker 3: just these supplies. At the highest end, we have good supply,

1008
00:48:43,440 --> 00:48:45,920
Speaker 3: but we are not where we want to be. Much

1009
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:49,040
Speaker 3: additional high grade weaponry is stored for us in outlying countries.

1010
00:48:49,160 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 3: That's the most dangerous part. Why because it means we

1011
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 3: have to go all in. We don't have that many

1012
00:48:53,719 --> 00:48:56,520
Speaker 3: of these interceptors. If we want to go all in,

1013
00:48:56,880 --> 00:48:59,759
Speaker 3: say goodbye to Taiwan, Say goodbye to Ukraine. If you

1014
00:48:59,800 --> 00:49:02,920
Speaker 3: care about those places, say goodbye to any place in

1015
00:49:02,960 --> 00:49:06,319
Speaker 3: the world which may matter more than this tiny little

1016
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 3: country the size of New Jersey, which literally produces nothing,

1017
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 3: called Israel, and we are done.

1018
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:14,800
Speaker 1: That's it. It's over in terms of US geopolitical projection.

1019
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 2: There aren't they already talking about pulling a sad battery from.

1020
00:49:17,600 --> 00:49:19,640
Speaker 1: From South Korea? South Korean state media right now?

1021
00:49:19,719 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, anyone want to tell me what trading partner South

1022
00:49:22,600 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 3: Korea is compared to Israel in terms of its rank.

1023
00:49:25,120 --> 00:49:27,080
Speaker 3: South Korea is one of the most developed economies in

1024
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,480
Speaker 3: the entire world, one of the most important trading partners.

1025
00:49:30,600 --> 00:49:32,040
Speaker 1: Ever heard of this little brand called.

1026
00:49:32,000 --> 00:49:34,839
Speaker 3: Samsung or any of these other places or you know,

1027
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:36,440
Speaker 3: oh my god, I mean, I could go on forever

1028
00:49:36,480 --> 00:49:38,880
Speaker 3: of it's importance, not that anybody in the US apparently

1029
00:49:38,920 --> 00:49:41,759
Speaker 3: even gives a shit, but yeah, fad battery out of

1030
00:49:41,800 --> 00:49:46,440
Speaker 3: that against Let's compare threats. One state has one of

1031
00:49:46,440 --> 00:49:50,920
Speaker 3: the world's largest standing armies, a literal nuclear tipped ICBM

1032
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:54,280
Speaker 3: capable of hitting the United States, and frequently launches missiles

1033
00:49:54,440 --> 00:49:58,359
Speaker 3: against South Korea and Japan, two top trading partners which

1034
00:49:58,360 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 3: are vitally important to the security of the US.

1035
00:50:00,600 --> 00:50:02,960
Speaker 1: That's called North Korea. The other one is called Iran.

1036
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,840
Speaker 3: It has short range and medium range ballistic missiles, it

1037
00:50:05,880 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 3: doesn't have a nuclear weapons program, and it can't hit

1038
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,400
Speaker 3: the United States. And if we've done a deal with them,

1039
00:50:10,440 --> 00:50:12,839
Speaker 3: pretty much wouldn't have met. And which do you think

1040
00:50:12,920 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 3: is more important to defend against.

1041
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:16,080
Speaker 4: And has never started a war and has never.

1042
00:50:15,920 --> 00:50:18,960
Speaker 3: Started a war or at least directly against the United States?

1043
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 3: So which do you think would you say is more

1044
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,799
Speaker 3: important to defend But we're going to strip it from there.

1045
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:27,359
Speaker 1: That's just that's just one example. It's over.

1046
00:50:27,560 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 3: I mean, let me let me read you my interceptor math,

1047
00:50:30,360 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 3: because people really do not appreciate how dire all of

1048
00:50:34,560 --> 00:50:36,799
Speaker 3: this is. I have the direct numbers. These are from CSIS.

1049
00:50:37,000 --> 00:50:39,320
Speaker 3: In the Twelve Day War, the US fired one hundred

1050
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:41,960
Speaker 3: and fifty that interceptors to protect Israel. That was twenty

1051
00:50:41,960 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 3: five percent of the whole US stockpile. In the last

1052
00:50:44,719 --> 00:50:47,520
Speaker 3: forty eight hours, we have fired we don't really know,

1053
00:50:47,800 --> 00:50:51,200
Speaker 3: probably you know, several dozen at the very least in

1054
00:50:51,320 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 3: twenty twenty five.

1055
00:50:52,480 --> 00:50:54,359
Speaker 1: How many new interceptors do you think that we.

1056
00:50:54,360 --> 00:51:00,520
Speaker 3: Got ten twelve, ten month the year before, so tens

1057
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:04,080
Speaker 3: in the last two years. So we fired more than

1058
00:51:04,160 --> 00:51:08,040
Speaker 3: what triple or sorry, Quinn Tipple in a single twelve

1059
00:51:08,080 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 3: in twelve days, and we'd acquired in a two year period.

1060
00:51:11,280 --> 00:51:14,360
Speaker 3: It's over. They can't manufacture these things cost millions of dollars.

1061
00:51:14,440 --> 00:51:16,560
Speaker 3: The defense supply chain is screwed. And for all the

1062
00:51:16,560 --> 00:51:18,960
Speaker 3: two trillion dollars that we spend on this, you know,

1063
00:51:19,120 --> 00:51:21,440
Speaker 3: it's funny. I was listening to the CSIS expert. They

1064
00:51:21,440 --> 00:51:23,680
Speaker 3: go The NPR person is like, but where does all

1065
00:51:23,680 --> 00:51:25,320
Speaker 3: the money go? And he's like, well, most of the

1066
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:27,799
Speaker 3: money's on Tricare, which is like welfare for all of

1067
00:51:27,800 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 3: these services and healthcare programs and subsidies. It doesn't actually

1068
00:51:31,360 --> 00:51:34,360
Speaker 3: go to a lot of the critical weapons systems, despite

1069
00:51:34,400 --> 00:51:35,560
Speaker 3: the fact that people have been.

1070
00:51:35,400 --> 00:51:38,120
Speaker 1: Warning about this for years. But Trump's own admission.

1071
00:51:38,280 --> 00:51:41,240
Speaker 3: The Patriot missile battery they say in there, the UAE

1072
00:51:41,320 --> 00:51:43,000
Speaker 3: and the Katar they were like, can we get more

1073
00:51:43,000 --> 00:51:45,280
Speaker 3: Patriots and are like, oh, we gave them all the Ukraine, sorry,

1074
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 3: they're all gone. We literally gave them all away. The

1075
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:50,760
Speaker 3: Europeans can't give you anything. They shipped it all already

1076
00:51:50,760 --> 00:51:52,160
Speaker 3: for the Eastern Dunboss region.

1077
00:51:52,480 --> 00:51:53,680
Speaker 1: It's this is bad.

1078
00:51:54,400 --> 00:51:56,799
Speaker 2: They're like those they're mussling us up with those drones too.

1079
00:51:56,880 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 2: And I mean that was one of the things Professor

1080
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:01,040
Speaker 2: Jang said yesterday is that our military really was built

1081
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:03,759
Speaker 2: for the Cold War. It was built for flexing, it

1082
00:52:03,800 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 2: was built for performance of power, and it really has

1083
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 2: not been you know, reimagined for modern warfare. And so look,

1084
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,399
Speaker 2: the Iranians learned from the Twelve Day Wars. Okay, we're

1085
00:52:15,440 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: going to shoot off our you know, lower tech missiles

1086
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:22,480
Speaker 2: and use these drones that can you know, evade some

1087
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:26,160
Speaker 2: of them will evade your interceptors, and we're gonna we're

1088
00:52:26,160 --> 00:52:28,440
Speaker 2: gonna bet that we can outlast you. Now, let me

1089
00:52:28,480 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 2: tell you the other side of the other side of

1090
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:32,279
Speaker 2: that is that the US. Look, they're bombing the hell

1091
00:52:32,320 --> 00:52:35,480
Speaker 2: out of Tehran right now. Their their goal is to

1092
00:52:35,520 --> 00:52:38,320
Speaker 2: destroy all of the missiles, destroy all of the missile launchers,

1093
00:52:38,400 --> 00:52:40,959
Speaker 2: so that Iran can never make it to that point

1094
00:52:41,080 --> 00:52:44,279
Speaker 2: that Iran is not capable of, you know, outlasting because

1095
00:52:44,320 --> 00:52:47,560
Speaker 2: their capabilities have been so severely degraded and destroyed. And

1096
00:52:47,600 --> 00:52:49,759
Speaker 2: that is certainly a possibility. That is the bet that

1097
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:54,480
Speaker 2: they're making. But look already already what Iran has been

1098
00:52:54,520 --> 00:52:57,920
Speaker 2: able to do by saying basically fuck it, we're throwing

1099
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,359
Speaker 2: everything against the wall, where we are putting all our

1100
00:53:00,440 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 2: chips on the table. We are all in the economic damage,

1101
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:07,800
Speaker 2: the brand damage, and the gulf, the chaos, the attacks

1102
00:53:07,840 --> 00:53:11,560
Speaker 2: on the US, the humiliation really truly of the US.

1103
00:53:11,640 --> 00:53:14,040
Speaker 4: Our fighter jets are flying or dropping out of.

1104
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:15,400
Speaker 2: The sky, which, by the way, there should still be

1105
00:53:15,440 --> 00:53:17,560
Speaker 2: a lot of questions about what the hell exactly happened

1106
00:53:17,600 --> 00:53:19,960
Speaker 2: there and whether that was truly friendly fire or not,

1107
00:53:20,080 --> 00:53:23,440
Speaker 2: because if it was, I mean the whole it's insane anyway.

1108
00:53:23,719 --> 00:53:26,360
Speaker 2: But the level of humiliation the US has already suffered

1109
00:53:26,360 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 2: here is truly incalculable. And you know, and the Iranians

1110
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 2: are like, no, we're not going to negotiate with you.

1111
00:53:32,400 --> 00:53:36,560
Speaker 2: We need to exact some pain because otherwise you will

1112
00:53:36,600 --> 00:53:38,799
Speaker 2: never leave us alone. So we are going to do

1113
00:53:38,880 --> 00:53:41,440
Speaker 2: everything we can to make you suffer. And there is

1114
00:53:41,520 --> 00:53:43,319
Speaker 2: zero appetite for suffering on the US.

1115
00:53:43,320 --> 00:53:45,840
Speaker 3: Also, our new update, just while we were filming Donald Trump,

1116
00:53:45,880 --> 00:53:48,440
Speaker 3: their Air Defense Air Force NAVAN leadership is gone. They

1117
00:53:48,440 --> 00:53:50,000
Speaker 3: want to talk, I said, too late.

1118
00:53:50,680 --> 00:53:53,560
Speaker 4: Great, Oh yeah, I'm sure we take his word for it.

1119
00:53:53,600 --> 00:53:54,879
Speaker 1: But no, I'm just like said a liar.

1120
00:53:54,960 --> 00:53:57,160
Speaker 3: Regardless of what is being you know, maybe they probably

1121
00:53:57,160 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 3: said no, we don't want to talk at all, but

1122
00:53:59,600 --> 00:54:01,560
Speaker 3: him saying Nope, we're not going to talk at all.

1123
00:54:01,560 --> 00:54:03,239
Speaker 1: We're going to go full on. So this is it.

1124
00:54:03,280 --> 00:54:06,600
Speaker 2: I mean, I mean he's lying they I mean, based

1125
00:54:06,600 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 2: on other recording, they rejected it. And so he's trying,

1126
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 2: Oh you didn't fire me, I quit you know that's

1127
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 2: what he's doing.

1128
00:54:12,080 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, regardless, the situation is the same. There's only one

1129
00:54:15,160 --> 00:54:17,000
Speaker 3: logic from here. If you know you're going to run

1130
00:54:17,000 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 3: out of interceptors, then you've got to bomb the shit

1131
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:21,600
Speaker 3: out of the country and to try and flatten and

1132
00:54:21,640 --> 00:54:25,799
Speaker 3: destroy it, collapse it into civil war. Well okay, well

1133
00:54:25,840 --> 00:54:28,680
Speaker 3: what comes next? What's going to happen after that massive

1134
00:54:28,719 --> 00:54:33,000
Speaker 3: refugee crisis, huge civil war? It could bleed all into

1135
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 3: the rest of the Gulf. These drones aren't going anywhere.

1136
00:54:36,280 --> 00:54:39,680
Speaker 3: You've got hundreds of thousands of people with a bunch

1137
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,160
Speaker 3: of guns and military training, and we don't have a

1138
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:43,799
Speaker 3: ground force there to do anything about it.

1139
00:54:43,800 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 1: So what do you think they're going to do? You

1140
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 1: think you're gonna take it, sit and line down.

1141
00:54:46,719 --> 00:54:49,040
Speaker 3: By the way, they just attacked the Rocky Curds this morning,

1142
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:51,839
Speaker 3: to try and preempt some sort of attack by them.

1143
00:54:52,239 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 1: So we're already going cross border.

1144
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:55,800
Speaker 2: Well, and here's the other thing, you know, a bigger

1145
00:54:55,800 --> 00:54:58,720
Speaker 2: picture in terms of these So we know public sentiment

1146
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:01,320
Speaker 2: in the US is against this war overwhelmingly. Look, the

1147
00:55:01,360 --> 00:55:03,120
Speaker 2: Republican base is going to go along with it by

1148
00:55:03,160 --> 00:55:05,000
Speaker 2: and large, but the rest of the populations like, what

1149
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:05,960
Speaker 2: the hell is going on here?

1150
00:55:06,040 --> 00:55:06,200
Speaker 1: Right?

1151
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:09,160
Speaker 2: And you even hear democrats, the democratic rhetoric has already

1152
00:55:09,200 --> 00:55:12,239
Speaker 2: shifted from being so extremely lame at the you know,

1153
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:15,520
Speaker 2: especially at the top levels, to now after those Rubio comments,

1154
00:55:15,560 --> 00:55:17,879
Speaker 2: I'm here in democrats like Mark Warner saying some things

1155
00:55:17,880 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 2: about Israel I never thought I would hearer in my

1156
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:23,240
Speaker 2: entire life, so that they are already reading the political

1157
00:55:23,239 --> 00:55:25,320
Speaker 2: writing on the wall here. But you also have to

1158
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:28,239
Speaker 2: think about the populations in the region where you know,

1159
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:31,239
Speaker 2: to Sager's point, these are monarchies like these are not

1160
00:55:31,280 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 2: representative democracies.

1161
00:55:32,800 --> 00:55:34,839
Speaker 4: And they've made some noise about oh the.

1162
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,319
Speaker 2: Palestinians, yes, we support it, to state, but they are

1163
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:40,759
Speaker 2: populations who many of whom truly do support the Palestinian

1164
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:44,279
Speaker 2: cause and truly are disgusted with the genocide in Palestine.

1165
00:55:44,320 --> 00:55:46,440
Speaker 2: And the you know, annexation of the West Bank and.

1166
00:55:46,480 --> 00:55:46,920
Speaker 1: All of that.

1167
00:55:47,560 --> 00:55:48,720
Speaker 4: They do not agree.

1168
00:55:48,800 --> 00:55:51,480
Speaker 2: They see the fecklessness, they see the game that their

1169
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:54,600
Speaker 2: leaders are playing. So you also start this war at

1170
00:55:54,600 --> 00:55:58,840
Speaker 2: a moment of a low point in regional public opinion,

1171
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 2: both about the UI and about Israel, which is why

1172
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 2: you know, you see multiple of our embassies being attacked,

1173
00:56:05,360 --> 00:56:09,279
Speaker 2: you know, in Pakistan, the fact that US marines were

1174
00:56:09,360 --> 00:56:14,080
Speaker 2: shooting civilians attacking the US embassy in Karachi. I mean,

1175
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 2: this in and of itself is just that one thing

1176
00:56:18,360 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 2: is an absolutely insane event. And then you've got you know,

1177
00:56:22,680 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 2: mobs at the bag Dad embassy as well. I mean,

1178
00:56:25,600 --> 00:56:29,160
Speaker 2: this is this is a moment when most of the

1179
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:32,520
Speaker 2: population in the region. Look, they're you know, typically not

1180
00:56:32,600 --> 00:56:35,680
Speaker 2: too crazy about US. They hate our freaking guts, and

1181
00:56:35,719 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 2: they hate the Israelis. And that's the moment when you're

1182
00:56:38,480 --> 00:56:40,520
Speaker 2: gonna ask to you know, them to bear the pain

1183
00:56:40,560 --> 00:56:43,560
Speaker 2: of their countries getting attacked. They're you know, the luxury

1184
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:46,720
Speaker 2: hotels next to them getting blown up, and their governments

1185
00:56:46,719 --> 00:56:49,000
Speaker 2: are on board with all of it. You're gonna have

1186
00:56:49,040 --> 00:56:50,719
Speaker 2: some you know, you're gonna have some local and we're

1187
00:56:50,719 --> 00:56:53,360
Speaker 2: already seeing that in Bahrain, which is why the riots

1188
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 2: are very significant.

1189
00:56:54,400 --> 00:56:56,359
Speaker 3: Development that's going to be the first one to fall

1190
00:56:56,480 --> 00:56:58,879
Speaker 3: because they have the Shia population. But the rest of them,

1191
00:56:58,880 --> 00:57:01,600
Speaker 3: I mean, look, there's some there is a serious social contract. Right,

1192
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:05,319
Speaker 3: you have no rights literally whatsoever. But you're gonna be rich.

1193
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:06,399
Speaker 1: But that rich.

1194
00:57:06,920 --> 00:57:12,320
Speaker 3: Those riches come from oil, natural gas being this global playground.

1195
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:12,680
Speaker 1: Right.

1196
00:57:12,920 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 3: All of these Indian laborers, I mean, how many of

1197
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:18,040
Speaker 3: them are going to stick around? Like money's worth it

1198
00:57:18,200 --> 00:57:20,280
Speaker 3: up to a point before you think you're gonna die.

1199
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,080
Speaker 3: And then if you have enough money, do they have

1200
00:57:22,160 --> 00:57:25,360
Speaker 3: enough money to continue paying them? I think I mentioned

1201
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:29,480
Speaker 3: earlier the US embassy and riod is issuing this imminent

1202
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:31,640
Speaker 3: threat of a missile attack over dah Ram, which is

1203
00:57:31,680 --> 00:57:33,040
Speaker 3: the seat of Saudi Aramco.

1204
00:57:33,440 --> 00:57:35,880
Speaker 1: This is the lifeblood of these places.

1205
00:57:35,920 --> 00:57:39,000
Speaker 3: The money is the only thing that flattens out all

1206
00:57:39,080 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 3: of the tensions in these people's societies. If it dries up,

1207
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:45,320
Speaker 3: if it dries up by even thirty percent, it's catastrophe

1208
00:57:45,560 --> 00:57:46,440
Speaker 3: for these economies.

1209
00:57:46,640 --> 00:57:49,080
Speaker 2: Rock is shut down oil production at the world's second

1210
00:57:49,160 --> 00:57:52,200
Speaker 2: largest oil field, which produces one point five million barrels

1211
00:57:52,200 --> 00:57:56,080
Speaker 2: of oil per day, amid escalating military activity, and the

1212
00:57:56,880 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 2: American government is telling Americans in the region you should

1213
00:57:59,760 --> 00:58:01,360
Speaker 2: get out, but we're not going to help you.

1214
00:58:01,360 --> 00:58:02,000
Speaker 4: You're on your own.

1215
00:58:02,080 --> 00:58:02,280
Speaker 8: Good.

1216
00:58:02,480 --> 00:58:04,400
Speaker 3: Imagine being stuck in Israel and you're like, hey, how

1217
00:58:04,400 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 3: do I get out of here? And you have to

1218
00:58:06,000 --> 00:58:08,479
Speaker 3: go to the US ambassador's Twitter feed where he's giving

1219
00:58:08,520 --> 00:58:11,160
Speaker 3: you these minute instructions about how to catch a bus

1220
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:14,280
Speaker 3: to the Sinai and then when you get to the Sinai,

1221
00:58:14,640 --> 00:58:17,320
Speaker 3: use this link which you have to pay to cross

1222
00:58:17,320 --> 00:58:19,720
Speaker 3: the border. And then when you cross the border, let's

1223
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:22,240
Speaker 3: hope that you I mean, look, I've only been once,

1224
00:58:22,800 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 3: but I'm pretty sure that it's not a very big

1225
00:58:24,320 --> 00:58:26,800
Speaker 3: airport in the middle of the Sinai peninsula. Are they

1226
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:29,600
Speaker 3: going to be you know, there's seven hundred thousand Americans

1227
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:31,600
Speaker 3: who live in or at least seven hundred thousand American

1228
00:58:31,600 --> 00:58:34,240
Speaker 3: citizens who live in Israel. Are they all going to

1229
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 3: be able to get out? And now imagine Dubai Doha.

1230
00:58:38,080 --> 00:58:40,680
Speaker 3: What Treta Parsi said there? Do we have that story

1231
00:58:40,720 --> 00:58:43,360
Speaker 3: about five times? Yeah, let's put that one up there.

1232
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:46,400
Speaker 3: See five up there on the screen. Half of Dubai

1233
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:50,840
Speaker 3: is booking. Expats are driving to Oman and Saudi Arabia

1234
00:58:51,120 --> 00:58:53,720
Speaker 3: to try and to find flights. I said yesterday the

1235
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:56,240
Speaker 3: going rate for a PJ out of Saudi Arabia right

1236
00:58:56,240 --> 00:59:01,640
Speaker 3: now is three hundred and fifty thousand for a single

1237
00:59:01,920 --> 00:59:04,560
Speaker 3: flight to be able to get out of the country.

1238
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:09,520
Speaker 3: Trump's podcast advisor Alex bruceter Witz from the campaign, he

1239
00:59:09,600 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 3: got stuck in the Gulf, and he apparently had to

1240
00:59:12,120 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 3: talk with a bunch of friends, including like TikTok influencers

1241
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:18,760
Speaker 3: or whatever, to charter a PJ to Greece to be

1242
00:59:18,840 --> 00:59:20,720
Speaker 3: able to get That's the only way out is you

1243
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:22,160
Speaker 3: have to be able to get a private jet.

1244
00:59:22,200 --> 00:59:22,600
Speaker 1: That's it.

1245
00:59:22,680 --> 00:59:25,280
Speaker 3: And I bet you the premium is unbelievable. So unless

1246
00:59:25,280 --> 00:59:27,760
Speaker 3: you don't have that kind of money, you're stuck. You're

1247
00:59:27,800 --> 00:59:30,920
Speaker 3: stuck for a long time down there, and they're basically

1248
00:59:30,960 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 3: even the ambassador is saying openly he goes flights even

1249
00:59:34,720 --> 00:59:37,440
Speaker 3: when they do reopen, will be extremely limited and they

1250
00:59:37,480 --> 00:59:40,480
Speaker 3: will be disrupted for a significant period of time. It

1251
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 3: could be months that these people are completely stuck with

1252
00:59:43,480 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 3: missiles flying all over there.

1253
00:59:44,760 --> 00:59:46,640
Speaker 2: Let's just put C seven up on the screen. This

1254
00:59:46,760 --> 00:59:51,960
Speaker 2: was some important reporting from drop site. We've got you know,

1255
00:59:52,400 --> 00:59:57,600
Speaker 2: we saw Iranian drones I think mostly that attacked various

1256
00:59:57,720 --> 01:00:02,240
Speaker 2: hotels throughout the golf And according to you know sources

1257
01:00:02,240 --> 01:00:05,480
Speaker 2: that DROPSDE are in touch with, they say some of

1258
01:00:05,520 --> 01:00:08,480
Speaker 2: the buildings and hotels that were hit were specifically housing

1259
01:00:08,600 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 2: Israeli or US personnel or intelligence operations, and that Iran

1260
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 2: pinpoint at the locations has really caught the Americans and

1261
01:00:15,560 --> 01:00:21,160
Speaker 2: Israelis off guard, according to an Iranian official. So you know, this,

1262
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:26,320
Speaker 2: that level of intelligence penetration too was apparently shocking to

1263
01:00:26,440 --> 01:00:29,439
Speaker 2: the Americans and to the Israelis. And let me say

1264
01:00:29,480 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 2: something like, you know, the Iranians are obviously attacking civilian infrastructure,

1265
01:00:33,680 --> 01:00:37,840
Speaker 2: or they're attacking hotels, they're attacking two data centers now

1266
01:00:37,840 --> 01:00:40,439
Speaker 2: have been taken out. They're you know, yeah, they're attack

1267
01:00:40,480 --> 01:00:43,840
Speaker 2: and they're attacking the some of the oil infrastructure. You know,

1268
01:00:43,840 --> 01:00:46,280
Speaker 2: they're claiming some of that is incidental or they didn't

1269
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:47,880
Speaker 2: mean to or whatever, but there is no doubt they're

1270
01:00:47,880 --> 01:00:51,120
Speaker 2: attacking civilian infrastructure. Like we have zero ground. I don't

1271
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:52,959
Speaker 2: even hear anyone complain ABO because we have zero ground

1272
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:55,400
Speaker 2: to stand on. Zero And that's the other thing, like,

1273
01:00:56,000 --> 01:00:58,520
Speaker 2: you know, when you talk about the Pandora's box that

1274
01:00:58,640 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 2: was opened by GASA, And what is now on the

1275
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:03,800
Speaker 2: table right is not just confined to us. We're not

1276
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 2: the only ones who are going to take advantage of

1277
01:01:05,760 --> 01:01:09,160
Speaker 2: this new law of the jungle where schools and mosques

1278
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 2: and hospitals and you know water zalinization plants and you

1279
01:01:14,560 --> 01:01:17,640
Speaker 2: know wastewater treatment plants, where that is all on the table.

1280
01:01:17,800 --> 01:01:20,160
Speaker 2: Our adversaries are going to take advantage of that as well.

1281
01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:23,960
Speaker 2: And that has already already right now in this moment,

1282
01:01:24,200 --> 01:01:26,680
Speaker 2: that has put Americans at risk, and that's part of

1283
01:01:26,720 --> 01:01:29,880
Speaker 2: why they are being urged to flee the region immediately,

1284
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:31,400
Speaker 2: being given no.

1285
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:33,360
Speaker 4: Help, no help in order to do that.

1286
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,680
Speaker 2: In those six Americans, you know, I think hag Seth,

1287
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 2: it's oh, they were in a fortified facility.

1288
01:01:37,600 --> 01:01:38,080
Speaker 1: No, they weren't.

1289
01:01:38,120 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 4: Bullshit, we just say they were in a triple wide trailer.

1290
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 4: That's what they were in.

1291
01:01:41,800 --> 01:01:45,720
Speaker 3: They were in a triple wide trailer with concrete walls

1292
01:01:45,880 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 3: that were put in front of them because in their mind,

1293
01:01:48,760 --> 01:01:52,600
Speaker 3: they're protecting against suicide car like they called v BITS,

1294
01:01:52,600 --> 01:01:55,840
Speaker 3: like vehicle borne IED. It's not two thousand and five anymore,

1295
01:01:56,360 --> 01:01:58,360
Speaker 3: you know, the IED it comes from the air with

1296
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:01,200
Speaker 3: a twenty thousand dollars drone which crashed directly into it's

1297
01:02:01,240 --> 01:02:03,919
Speaker 3: called a tactile operations center also known as a TALK

1298
01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 3: and they all got bowned up. Imagine that a temporary

1299
01:02:07,480 --> 01:02:12,120
Speaker 3: trailer totally unfortified. There's now an investigation as to why

1300
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:15,320
Speaker 3: there weren't proper troops or there weren't proper air defenses

1301
01:02:15,520 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 3: or any of that put around them sitting down, it's

1302
01:02:18,480 --> 01:02:22,880
Speaker 3: I mean, it's beyond comprehension. These are six guys, their family.

1303
01:02:22,920 --> 01:02:24,560
Speaker 3: I mean, what are you going to tell their families?

1304
01:02:24,840 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 3: Who did they die for? What did they die? I

1305
01:02:26,880 --> 01:02:28,760
Speaker 3: hate to talk to that way, I really do, but

1306
01:02:28,920 --> 01:02:30,600
Speaker 3: I do think you know, we have to say it

1307
01:02:30,680 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 3: viscerally in the middle of a conflict. Otherwise is going

1308
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 3: to get caught up in this Iraq war. Freedom isn't

1309
01:02:35,600 --> 01:02:38,480
Speaker 3: free level bullshit, and no, we're not doing that this

1310
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:40,400
Speaker 3: time around. We're not going to let them do that

1311
01:02:40,480 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 3: to us, because that's how we lost thousands, tens of

1312
01:02:43,240 --> 01:02:45,840
Speaker 3: thousands who were maimed as well. It really is just

1313
01:02:45,960 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 3: absolutely sickening. Okay, we've got Scott Horton standing by. Let's

1314
01:02:48,800 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 3: get to it.