WEBVTT - Why Anthony Scaramucci Is Predicting Trump Will Lose 0:00:03.120 --> 0:00:09.760 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. There were some memorable 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.240 characters in Donald Trump's administration during his presidency, but the 0:00:13.360 --> 0:00:19.160 most memorable, arguably was probably Trump's former communications director, anthony's Karamucci. Now, 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:21.680 the Mooch as he's known, was in the role for 0:00:21.720 --> 0:00:24.280 eleven days, and if you dare say ten, he'll quickly 0:00:24.280 --> 0:00:26.960 correct you. And he's got a lot of thoughts about 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:30.000 what might happen to America and the world if Trump 0:00:30.080 --> 0:00:31.560 gets another go in the White House. 0:00:31.840 --> 0:00:32.000 Now. 0:00:32.040 --> 0:00:35.279 I saw Anthony at an event at Bloomberg House in Davos, 0:00:35.640 --> 0:00:38.360 and he was actually in a corner with fifteen people 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.120 laughing around him because he really brings some of these 0:00:41.120 --> 0:00:44.720 stories alive. He's pretty dramatic, and in Davos everyone was 0:00:44.760 --> 0:00:47.040 trying to figure out what a Trump two point zero 0:00:47.080 --> 0:00:49.080 in the White House would mean and whether he would 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:51.360 get it. So I thought it made sense to get 0:00:51.400 --> 0:00:54.680 someone who was alongside Trump during the campaign and with 0:00:54.760 --> 0:00:56.360 him for a part of the ride in the White 0:00:56.400 --> 0:00:59.040 House into our studio here in London. So this week 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:02.280 of conversation with Anthony Skermucci about whether a Trump presidency 0:01:02.560 --> 0:01:04.920 would be more right wing, how dangerous he would be, 0:01:05.280 --> 0:01:08.040 or how beneficial he would be for financial services, and 0:01:08.080 --> 0:01:10.760 why he's such a believer in bitcoin. Welcome to in 0:01:10.800 --> 0:01:17.679 the City from Bloomberg's offices in the heart of the 0:01:17.680 --> 0:01:20.520 Square Mile. This is our weekly podcast about the stories 0:01:20.959 --> 0:01:25.520 driving the conversations of policymakers, hower brokers, and finine seers 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:29.240 in the power centers the world over. I'm Francin Laqua 0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:31.880 and I'm David Merritt, And like you're actually sitting this 0:01:31.920 --> 0:01:32.600 one out, Dave. 0:01:32.600 --> 0:01:35.080 Yes, here in spirit, if not anybody always. 0:01:35.120 --> 0:01:37.520 Now, I'm really excited, Dave, about this week's interview with 0:01:37.520 --> 0:01:40.800 Anthony Skeramucci, which we actually did with a friend of 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:43.399 the show, our opinion columnist Adrian Woolridge. 0:01:43.480 --> 0:01:47.640 Yes, it just feels incredibly timely to speak to somebody 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:52.840 with such firsthand knowledge of Trump, how he operates, and 0:01:53.280 --> 0:01:55.120 he had a ringside seat first time round, to think 0:01:55.160 --> 0:01:57.960 about what might happen if he gets back in the 0:01:58.000 --> 0:02:00.080 White House. It is when you mentioned it was on 0:02:00.080 --> 0:02:02.320 one's mind that Davos Francine, I mean, I'm going to 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:04.760 be back in America next week. It is certainly on 0:02:04.840 --> 0:02:09.520 everyone's mind there. The elections not till November, but it's 0:02:09.560 --> 0:02:10.680 going to be upon us for we know it. 0:02:10.840 --> 0:02:13.400 Yeah, and Adoniskiramuci has this unique inside because he was 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:15.920 really a Trump lover, right, he backed Trump, he went 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:18.400 to work for Trump, and now that he's like one 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:20.799 of the fearcest critics of Donald Trump. 0:02:21.000 --> 0:02:24.640 That is the amazing thing, isn't it The swing of 0:02:24.720 --> 0:02:29.040 opinion here from lover to hater. And you know, we 0:02:29.080 --> 0:02:33.520 are tracking closely, of course, across America a public opinion 0:02:33.560 --> 0:02:36.959 about Donald Trump, who, as we all know, is very divisive. 0:02:37.160 --> 0:02:39.160 We've got a pole that we're running every month. It's 0:02:39.280 --> 0:02:42.080 in the seven what they call the Purple States, the 0:02:42.120 --> 0:02:44.000 swing states. That did you see the one that was 0:02:44.040 --> 0:02:46.639 out this week, Francine. This was a particularly interesting one 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:48.639 because it showed for the first time a bit of 0:02:48.680 --> 0:02:53.200 a bump for Biden, attributed maybe to some of his 0:02:53.400 --> 0:02:55.920 perceived success at the State of the Union address, but 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:59.000 he is narrowing the gap in those crucial states. Now 0:02:59.360 --> 0:03:02.280 people clutching straws here to think. Is there some hope 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:05.600 for Biden because he's still behind in lots of these places, 0:03:06.040 --> 0:03:08.880 or is this the start of a new trend. 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:12.040 It's interesting because Anthroy Scerumoucci doesn't think Trump will get in, 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:15.400 although he's much better organized, so he's a better campaigner, 0:03:15.680 --> 0:03:17.639 he says, And if he does get in in the 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:19.839 White House, he'll know what to do, so he could 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:24.120 be potentially more dangerous for US democracy, a Skrimucci says, 0:03:24.320 --> 0:03:25.640 and for the rest of the world. 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:27.519 You know, but this is one of the things, isn't 0:03:27.560 --> 0:03:29.760 it that we all remember or maybe we've sort of 0:03:29.760 --> 0:03:32.720 collectively forgotten a bit back in twenty sixteen. No one 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.480 thought Trump was going to win then, and you know, 0:03:35.640 --> 0:03:37.520 sort of here we are again at this point where 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:41.000 the media commentators, even people who were at the ringside seat, 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:43.800 are saying, no, it's not possible. It's not going to happen. 0:03:44.080 --> 0:03:47.920 So I'll be visiting the Washington Bureau next week and 0:03:48.480 --> 0:03:50.400 I definitely get the sense from everybody there that you know, 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:52.720 November is going to be upon us before we know it, 0:03:52.800 --> 0:03:55.600 and this is a rematch. It's looking pretty certain between 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:58.400 Biden and Trump. So everyone is dusting themselves off for 0:03:58.440 --> 0:04:03.240 that and acknowledging. You know, covering Trump administration last time 0:04:03.280 --> 0:04:05.120 around was exhausting. You never knew what was going to 0:04:05.160 --> 0:04:07.360 happen when you woke up every day, so everyone is 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:11.640 bracing for more of that. But you know, our coverage 0:04:11.680 --> 0:04:14.280 out of DC, of course, will be spectacular. We've got 0:04:14.320 --> 0:04:16.800 a Washington newsletter, We've got a podcast every week, We've 0:04:16.800 --> 0:04:19.760 got our daily news show. So check it all out 0:04:19.760 --> 0:04:22.000 on bloombog dot com. 0:04:23.160 --> 0:04:27.400 Good plug, nice shameless plug, Dave. But we do we're 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:29.320 pretty on top of it. Here's our conversation with the 0:04:29.320 --> 0:04:34.600 former White House Communications director Anthony Scirramucci. Adrian, how excited 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:36.919 are you by having Anthony scirramuch I'm excited. 0:04:37.000 --> 0:04:39.640 I'm excittionally excited because for the next hour we will 0:04:39.640 --> 0:04:40.480 get you everywhere with me. 0:04:41.040 --> 0:04:43.479 For the next hour, we'll listen to two stories of 0:04:43.520 --> 0:04:46.040 what it was like working for eleven days with Donald Trump, 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:48.920 his prediction on the US economy, and we'll talk a 0:04:48.960 --> 0:04:51.560 little bit about the markets too. Thank you for joining us. 0:04:51.600 --> 0:04:53.200 It's it's awesome to be here. 0:04:53.400 --> 0:04:56.760 Do you ever get tired of talking about your time 0:04:56.760 --> 0:04:57.440 in the White House? 0:04:57.720 --> 0:04:59.359 You know, I mean, if I mean asked about it, 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:01.680 I'll about it. You know, I like talking about it 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:05.240 with kids because it was such an epic fail and 0:05:05.360 --> 0:05:09.680 getting fired like that was a It was the appearance 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:11.600 of a catastrophe, and I think it's a good thing 0:05:11.640 --> 0:05:14.400 to talk to kids about where you can have missteps 0:05:14.400 --> 0:05:17.120 in your life or a step on a land mine, 0:05:17.160 --> 0:05:20.000 but you can survive it and what you need to 0:05:20.040 --> 0:05:22.799 do to pull yourself back together. So I don't really 0:05:22.800 --> 0:05:27.039 mind talking about it. I think the issue for me, 0:05:27.720 --> 0:05:30.039 which I don't like because it's a really poor reflection 0:05:30.160 --> 0:05:32.359 on me, is why did I actually go work for 0:05:32.400 --> 0:05:34.719 Trump in the first place. I think that is a 0:05:34.760 --> 0:05:38.359 poor reflection on me, and it speaks to perhaps a 0:05:38.360 --> 0:05:42.480 weakness and character. It speaks to ego, and it speaks 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:47.400 to pride, because ultimately that was a prideful decision. It's 0:05:47.440 --> 0:05:51.200 a cautionary tale about putting your ego and your pride 0:05:51.200 --> 0:05:52.280 into your decision making. 0:05:52.520 --> 0:05:54.440 So you didn't do it to serve the country you 0:05:54.440 --> 0:05:55.520 wanted to be in the White House. 0:05:55.680 --> 0:05:57.720 No, I certainly did it to serve the country. But 0:05:57.920 --> 0:06:00.440 you have to understand you have a round in a 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:04.159 square hole. Okay. I worked as a wall streeter for 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:07.039 thirty years. I went to a couple of good schools. 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:09.479 I grew up in a blue collar neighborhood. Now I 0:06:09.520 --> 0:06:13.200 can serve the American president, but the American president's crazy, 0:06:13.760 --> 0:06:17.839 and so people that had their pride out of the equation, 0:06:18.080 --> 0:06:20.520 like my very good friend Vinnie Viola. I don't know 0:06:20.520 --> 0:06:23.480 if you would recognize that name, but he ran vert 0:06:23.480 --> 0:06:26.679 to as the president of the Merk. He was named 0:06:26.680 --> 0:06:28.960 by Donald Trump to be the Secretary of the Army. 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:34.240 For two hour meetings with Trump, he withdrew himself from 0:06:34.320 --> 0:06:36.960 the position, and when I asked him why he did it, 0:06:37.000 --> 0:06:39.440 he said, you know, after spending more time with mister Trump, 0:06:39.440 --> 0:06:42.880 I realized I really couldn't work for him. He didn't 0:06:42.920 --> 0:06:46.880 have the right executive management skills, highly insecure person He's 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:50.720 not able to share credit. I resulted with I'm withdrawing 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:54.279 myself from the position, and he too, was an army veteran, 0:06:54.600 --> 0:06:58.040 went to West Point, served the country, wanted to be 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.560 the secretary of the Army, but it was incongruous with 0:07:01.720 --> 0:07:05.360 Trump's personality. I wasn't brave enough to make that statement. 0:07:05.680 --> 0:07:08.200 I was smart enough, but my ego is in the way. 0:07:08.279 --> 0:07:11.160 Do you think Trump has deteriorated over the years. Do 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:12.960 you think he'd be worse next time around than he 0:07:13.040 --> 0:07:13.760 was last time? 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:18.400 Well, he'll be significantly worse, but not because he's deteriorated. 0:07:18.520 --> 0:07:21.920 I think everybody deteriorates over time. He's going to be 0:07:22.000 --> 0:07:25.360 seventy eight years old, so he's att slower. But that's 0:07:25.440 --> 0:07:27.600 not the issue for Trump. The issue for Trump is 0:07:27.600 --> 0:07:30.800 that he's now experienced. He's now been in the White House. 0:07:30.840 --> 0:07:34.400 He's lost the White House. If he gets the job again, 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.560 he'll be very, very dangerous in that job. And he's 0:07:37.560 --> 0:07:40.720 also got some very experienced campaign people with him now 0:07:41.120 --> 0:07:44.960 that believe in the expansion of unitary executive power, and 0:07:45.000 --> 0:07:47.320 this is very, very dangerous for the society. 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:48.880 Can you say, have a little bit more about the 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:51.160 sort of people he's got around him, because it seems 0:07:51.200 --> 0:07:53.800 to me that they're different from last time. Last time 0:07:53.840 --> 0:07:56.400 had a lot of Republican establishment, a lot of moderates, 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:57.680 a lot of people who didn't quite know what they 0:07:57.720 --> 0:07:59.640 were getting themselves in. For this time, it seems to 0:07:59.680 --> 0:08:01.600 be true believes Is that right? 0:08:02.480 --> 0:08:04.520 I would say that that's right. A little bit of 0:08:04.520 --> 0:08:06.800 a contrarian on this, because I really know the beast 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.800 of Donald Trump. He's such a name dropper, Adriana, He's 0:08:10.800 --> 0:08:14.640 such a status state seeker that those people won't rise 0:08:14.680 --> 0:08:17.040 in the cabinet. He's got them in the campaign. Now 0:08:17.480 --> 0:08:20.680 they're very discipline. I'll probably try to bring Manifort back 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:24.360 because Manafort has back channels at the foreign money. So 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:31.880 those people are loyalists to Trump, but also the idea 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:37.360 of massive expansion of executive power. And this is actually 0:08:37.400 --> 0:08:40.679 a Dick Cheney concept. So this is like a Frankenstein 0:08:40.720 --> 0:08:43.760 monster that was unleashed by Cheney in the early part 0:08:43.840 --> 0:08:48.520 of the two thousands, perpetrated by him and George W. Bush. 0:08:48.559 --> 0:08:52.360 And now it's become this Frankenstein golam of Donald Trump. 0:08:52.440 --> 0:08:56.920 And so this is something that we have to stop immediately. 0:08:57.160 --> 0:08:59.320 And then you have to ask yourself. Once Trump has stopped, 0:08:59.320 --> 0:09:02.400 which I predict you will be stopped, what comes after 0:09:02.480 --> 0:09:05.840 Donald Trump? Is there a worse monster coming? Or can 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:10.240 we renew the American experiment? Can we renew the American democracy? 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:12.120 What do you mean he'll be stopped? So you don't think, 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:14.120 first of all, how did he get the Republican nomination, 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:15.800 and you don't think he becomes president. 0:09:16.080 --> 0:09:18.520 Well, he definitely doesn't become president. No, he doesn't have 0:09:18.559 --> 0:09:21.200 a he doesn't have the You have to look at 0:09:21.200 --> 0:09:23.840 the data very carefully, and you have to remember in 0:09:23.840 --> 0:09:26.160 the United States, you have something called the Bradley effect. 0:09:26.800 --> 0:09:29.559 And so Mayor Tom Bradley, the first African American mayor 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:33.000 in our history, when he was running for real election, 0:09:33.679 --> 0:09:37.080 when the pollsters called, so you're voting for Mayor Bradley, 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:40.200 people said yes. It was a nine point spread between 0:09:40.640 --> 0:09:44.160 the poll and the actual election. Bradley lost the election, 0:09:44.920 --> 0:09:47.400 and the people said they didn't want to appear racist 0:09:47.440 --> 0:09:49.480 to the person on the phone. They didn't want to 0:09:49.559 --> 0:09:51.200 vote for Bradley because I didn't think he was competent 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:53.560 at his job, had nothing to do with his skin color. 0:09:54.080 --> 0:09:56.600 And so what's happening right now with Trump is that 0:09:56.640 --> 0:10:02.040 there's more media exposure for him relatively, and there's people 0:10:02.240 --> 0:10:05.440 that actually like what's going on at the border. They're 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:07.560 gonna vote for Joe Biden, but they're telling people that 0:10:07.600 --> 0:10:10.400 they don't like what's going on at the border. And 0:10:10.440 --> 0:10:12.600 the other big issue for Donald Trump is that they're 0:10:12.600 --> 0:10:16.400 going to run the replay film of his full on insanity, 0:10:17.080 --> 0:10:20.880 the craziness of the insurrection, the insanity around the COVID 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:24.320 nineteen situation. But how do you see what I'm saying? 0:10:24.760 --> 0:10:25.240 I do? 0:10:25.400 --> 0:10:27.000 But then how did he get the nomination? 0:10:27.240 --> 0:10:30.240 You got the nomination because he's got an ardent support 0:10:30.320 --> 0:10:35.280 base of twenty percent of the American population that feel 0:10:35.360 --> 0:10:39.200 left out. And this is another problem with the United States, 0:10:39.320 --> 0:10:43.640 is another problem with the UK. Our political established and 0:10:43.720 --> 0:10:48.959 primarily baby boomers have failed these countries. Okay, specifically talking 0:10:48.960 --> 0:10:53.600 about the United States. The baby boomers are indulgent, they're selfish. 0:10:54.080 --> 0:10:57.560 They got passed up aton from the greatest generation of 0:10:57.640 --> 0:11:04.240 a vanquished fascist fascism in Europe and architecture that rebuilt 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:07.600 the world for peace and prosperity, led by the UK, 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:12.160 the United States, and the family of liberal Western democracies, 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:15.960 and so we've grown tired of it. That happens in history. 0:11:16.000 --> 0:11:19.120 If you study Barbara Tuckman's books The Guns of August 0:11:19.520 --> 0:11:22.800 as an example, when we lose our wartime memory, we're 0:11:22.840 --> 0:11:25.640 eighty years out from the D Day invasion now, and 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:28.800 when we lose our wartime memory or living memory, we 0:11:28.880 --> 0:11:33.240 have a tendency to glorify war, and we increase our 0:11:33.240 --> 0:11:38.680 propensity towards nationalism. So that's happening right now. And rather 0:11:38.760 --> 0:11:41.920 than going back to the principles that got us to 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:46.640 where we are, our politicians become more tribal. That become 0:11:46.679 --> 0:11:50.760 more insular. It's also being helped by the former Soviet 0:11:50.840 --> 0:11:54.400 Union through their server farms. They're pushing a lot of 0:11:54.400 --> 0:11:57.160 this narrative into the Internet. It's a lot of garbage 0:11:57.160 --> 0:12:01.000 that's showing up on social media references all of this, 0:12:01.480 --> 0:12:03.240 and Trump plays right into that. 0:12:03.600 --> 0:12:05.280 Can I put you a bit on the Bradley effect, 0:12:05.320 --> 0:12:07.760 because surely you could cate the opposite conclusion from the 0:12:07.760 --> 0:12:11.559 Bradley effect. We have people in this country called shy conservatives. 0:12:11.559 --> 0:12:14.960 The number of people actually vote Conservative is generally bigger 0:12:15.000 --> 0:12:16.679 than the number of people who say they will, because 0:12:16.679 --> 0:12:18.960 people don't want to be associated with this, you know, 0:12:19.040 --> 0:12:21.880 this slightly disreputable party in their mind. Isn't the same 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:23.840 thing true if Trump? A lot of people will say 0:12:23.840 --> 0:12:25.679 they're not going to vote for Trump, who actually, when 0:12:25.679 --> 0:12:27.959 they go into the ballot box say they unleashed that 0:12:28.080 --> 0:12:28.800 in the Trump I. 0:12:28.760 --> 0:12:32.200 Would say that was true in twenty sixteen, It was 0:12:32.280 --> 0:12:34.400 not true in twenty twenty. I don't believe it's the 0:12:34.440 --> 0:12:39.120 case in twenty twenty four. And so what you're saying 0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:43.080 was a twenty sixteen phenomenon, But in twenty twenty four, 0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:49.120 he's a known entity. He does he has very high negatives. 0:12:49.160 --> 0:12:52.880 Nobody's won the presidency with this high of a negative. 0:12:53.200 --> 0:12:57.120 He has not won a plurality of Americans. He's never 0:12:57.160 --> 0:13:00.400 had a higher approval rating above fifty percent at any 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.199 time that he was in the presidency. But I'm telling you, 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:07.720 the American people are going to choose older and mildly 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.280 for yet fall to fall on in sent. 0:13:10.320 --> 0:13:14.320 So surely a lot depends on whether Biden makes mistakes. 0:13:13.960 --> 0:13:15.280 Yeah, and people go and vote. 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.720 Actually is if Biden makes a few crucial mistakes. 0:13:18.760 --> 0:13:20.600 You know, I love about you, guys. I mean I'm 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.240 gonna push Can I push back on you too? Because 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.719 I love you guys? Okay, because you you know, this 0:13:25.800 --> 0:13:29.120 is like the Davos set. We were in Davos together, right, 0:13:29.679 --> 0:13:32.120 and so I've been going to Davos for seventeen years. 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:36.480 Davos is always wrong. In two thousand and seven, they 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:38.640 told us that the trees were going to grow to 0:13:38.679 --> 0:13:40.720 the sky and we had solved all of our monetary 0:13:40.720 --> 0:13:45.480 policy problems. In two thousand and nine, in January, they 0:13:45.480 --> 0:13:47.360 said that the world was going to open and we're 0:13:47.400 --> 0:13:49.560 all falling into the earth. We're going to go to 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.800 the worst depression since the nineteen twenties, we had the 0:13:52.800 --> 0:13:56.520 greatest bull market run in history. Twenty sixteen, Davos said, 0:13:57.200 --> 0:13:59.400 Hillary Clinton's going to be president. There's no reason to 0:13:59.440 --> 0:14:03.920 have the election twenty twenty with absolute certainty Trump was 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.760 going to win the election. Now in twenty twenty four, 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:10.520 Trump is going to win the election. He's just not 0:14:10.559 --> 0:14:10.920 going to win. 0:14:11.600 --> 0:14:14.080 But I do think they're going to win. I'm sorry, 0:14:14.160 --> 0:14:18.280 especially on the economy. Your enemy in DeVos, Jamie Diamond 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.920 JP Morgan, went on a rival channel and he said, 0:14:22.040 --> 0:14:24.520 let's just take a step back. He's kind of right 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:27.200 about NATO, he's kind of right about immigration. He grew 0:14:27.240 --> 0:14:30.640 the economy quite well. Is this economy going to let 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:31.520 Joe Biden down? 0:14:32.440 --> 0:14:35.600 So with all respect to Jamie, because I think he's 0:14:35.640 --> 0:14:38.400 one of the smartest people that I've ever met. He's 0:14:38.400 --> 0:14:40.680 certainly one of the smartest people in the financial services. 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.240 I have an intellectual disagreement with him on the crypto currency, 0:14:44.240 --> 0:14:47.240 specifically bitcoin, but he's a lot smarter than me, so 0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:52.440 I'll see economic points to him. But Trump lost twenty 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:57.920 one million jobs on his watch. He totally and completely 0:14:57.960 --> 0:15:03.400 mishandled the COVID nineteen situation. He has no executive management skills, 0:15:03.760 --> 0:15:07.280 and he disorganized the executive branch of the United States, 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:12.400 which includes nineteen cabinet and sub cabinet level agencies and 0:15:12.440 --> 0:15:16.960 departments that were paralyzed by Donald Trump and his Twitter account. 0:15:17.160 --> 0:15:21.600 And so he is the wrong guy for that job. Now, 0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:24.200 if you want to say, because let's be objective on 0:15:24.240 --> 0:15:29.520 your podcast, that he has points to be made on deregulation, 0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.840 he has points to be made on economic growth, he 0:15:32.880 --> 0:15:37.320 does have those points. He blew the tax reform. He 0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:40.440 did nothing to help the twenty percent of the people 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:44.960 that put him back in the nomination, his ardent supporters, 0:15:45.160 --> 0:15:48.600 he has done nothing for He's an avatar for their anger. 0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:52.960 He represents an orange wrecking ball into the establishment to 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:54.200 smash the established. 0:15:54.200 --> 0:15:57.000 For me, that because if you think, even if he's 0:15:57.000 --> 0:15:59.160 done nothing for you, if you think that there's one 0:15:59.160 --> 0:16:01.920 person that fights for you, you're going to get him reelected. 0:16:01.960 --> 0:16:06.320 He's not fighting for them as much as he's striking 0:16:06.360 --> 0:16:11.320 a match to the establishment. So he's done nothing for them. 0:16:11.400 --> 0:16:15.400 Joe Biden, through his legislative accomplishments in the last three years, 0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:18.080 has done way more for those people. But he's a 0:16:18.200 --> 0:16:23.400 very poor messenger because he's frail. The people that voted 0:16:23.440 --> 0:16:27.040 for Lyndon Johnson or Jack Kennedy, you know, their grandparents 0:16:27.160 --> 0:16:30.640 or their great grandparents, a voter for Franklin Roosevelt. Many 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:32.880 of those people that are aligned with Trump now because 0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:37.040 the Democrats seeded those people. The establishment Democrats say we're 0:16:37.040 --> 0:16:42.720 going to focus on transgender bathrooms, pronoun usage DEEI that's 0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:46.680 going to be our champion in this generation. The white, 0:16:47.000 --> 0:16:50.800 lower middle class and the working class have been left 0:16:50.840 --> 0:16:55.400 disenfranchised by both parties. Like or dislike Donald Trump, he 0:16:55.560 --> 0:16:58.320 saw that he went into those communities. I went into 0:16:58.320 --> 0:17:01.560 those communities with them, seventy one campaign stops with him 0:17:01.600 --> 0:17:05.080 on the Trump plane. I saw the blight in those communities. 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:07.960 I grew up with those people. And again, this doesn't 0:17:08.000 --> 0:17:11.119 reflect well on me, but this is my cognitive bias. 0:17:11.160 --> 0:17:14.040 Because I've hung out in the salons of the wealthy, 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:16.320 and I hung out at Davos, and I went to 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:19.280 work at Goldman and I went to Harvard Law School. 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:21.800 These people don't think like the blue collar people I 0:17:21.840 --> 0:17:24.720 grew up with. And so when I arrived on the 0:17:24.760 --> 0:17:28.480 Trump campaign in twenty sixteen, and I was in New Mexico, 0:17:29.320 --> 0:17:32.320 and somebody, a blue collar worker looked at me and said, oh, 0:17:32.359 --> 0:17:35.560 you think you're in New Mexico. New New Mexico. That 0:17:35.600 --> 0:17:38.280 would be Mexico, because that's where the factory that I 0:17:38.359 --> 0:17:41.040 was working in my dad was working and moved to. 0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:45.440 So this is no longer New Mexico. And those people 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:49.359 who Trump is do nothing for, they'll vote for him 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:51.920 anyway because he wants to wreck the establishment. He wants 0:17:51.960 --> 0:17:55.760 to destroy the system, and they don't like the system 0:17:55.920 --> 0:17:57.360 because the system hasn't worked for them. 0:17:57.400 --> 0:18:00.360 How did the liberal astablishment get things so wrong? How 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:03.600 did it create so much I think just often justified 0:18:03.640 --> 0:18:04.920 animosity against. 0:18:04.600 --> 0:18:08.800 Itself, complacency. They got very complacent. They took for granted 0:18:08.800 --> 0:18:11.760 the votes. Hillary Clinton looked at Wisconsin and said those 0:18:11.800 --> 0:18:15.360 are primarily union workers and blue collar people. She did 0:18:15.400 --> 0:18:18.000 not show up in Wisconsin. Trump went seven times to 0:18:18.080 --> 0:18:23.280 Wisconsin after the Republican convention. So his messaging, he's a look, 0:18:23.320 --> 0:18:26.520 he sucked as president, let's just be honest, and he 0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.439 sucks for the world order, and he sucks for peace 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:33.840 and global prosperity. But he's a wonderful communicator, and he's 0:18:33.880 --> 0:18:37.800 got tireless energy and he resonates with a very large 0:18:37.800 --> 0:18:40.560 group of people that feel left out of the system. 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:44.400 Do you think the liberal astablishment has learned anything from 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:46.120 what happened in twenty sixteen. 0:18:45.920 --> 0:18:52.280 Joe Biden has Joe Biden put legislation in place for reshoring. 0:18:52.840 --> 0:18:55.919 He put the Chips Act in place, He passed an 0:18:55.960 --> 0:18:56.800 infrastructure built. 0:18:57.000 --> 0:18:58.400 I don't want to talk a bit about the UK, 0:18:58.520 --> 0:19:02.000 but if Donald Trump goes bankrupt, does that make a 0:19:02.000 --> 0:19:04.240 difference to the American psyche and the run up to 0:19:04.280 --> 0:19:04.919 the election. 0:19:05.680 --> 0:19:08.359 Not to his core base. They'll vote from no matter 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.960 what bankrupt in jail he could he could be, he 0:19:12.000 --> 0:19:15.199 could be campaigning with an orange suit on a zoom 0:19:15.240 --> 0:19:17.840 call from a jail cell. They're still going to vote 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.840 for him. Okay, they've they've decided they're in that cult. 0:19:20.920 --> 0:19:26.359 They've decided he can do absolutely no wrong. But the 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:30.360 people that matter are the independence, the suburban women are 0:19:30.359 --> 0:19:32.239 going to drive this election of it again. You know, 0:19:32.320 --> 0:19:34.440 if you've got two movies that are playing in the 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:39.160 United States in twenty twenty four, Weekend at Bernie's and 0:19:39.280 --> 0:19:41.800 One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, I'm going weekend at 0:19:41.840 --> 0:19:45.120 Bernie's I'll take I'll take one guy who's got one 0:19:45.119 --> 0:19:47.879 foot on a banana peal the other one in the casket, 0:19:48.200 --> 0:19:51.200 over a guy that needs a lobotomy, that's certifiably crazy, 0:19:51.680 --> 0:19:55.359 that wants to demolish the post World War two architecture, 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:59.160 wants to destroy the institutions of the American democracy. 0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:05.000 You've painted a pretty depressing picture of the choice that 0:20:05.080 --> 0:20:07.159 America faces in the next selection. 0:20:07.040 --> 0:20:08.520 I'm painting an accurate picture. 0:20:09.920 --> 0:20:13.040 Suppressing it's contradictory things. But how did you get into 0:20:13.040 --> 0:20:15.720 this position as a country is the most important country 0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:16.520 in the world. 0:20:16.800 --> 0:20:20.280 So the answer to that, there's a couple of things 0:20:20.280 --> 0:20:23.520 that happened. One of them is Citizens United. One of 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:27.520 them is Ross Perot. Ross Perot actually caused this. He 0:20:27.600 --> 0:20:30.159 didn't realize it at the time, but he scared the 0:20:30.240 --> 0:20:36.520 daylights out of the oligarchic duopoly known as the Demo Publicans. Okay, 0:20:36.600 --> 0:20:40.680 so they had a duopoly going quite strongly. Pero entered 0:20:40.680 --> 0:20:43.119 the race, got nineteen point nine percent of the vote, 0:20:43.520 --> 0:20:48.080 freaked them out, So they strengthened their duopoly by going 0:20:48.119 --> 0:20:52.080 into the state and local governments and tightening the restrictions 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:55.159 on having a third party enter a race. You know, 0:20:55.160 --> 0:20:57.800 you've got to get thousands and thousands of petitions. You 0:20:57.840 --> 0:21:01.639 have to follow this uh weird life of laws and 0:21:01.720 --> 0:21:04.640 procedures to get on the ballot. And they did all 0:21:04.640 --> 0:21:08.040 of this to strengthen to doopoly. They then ceded to 0:21:08.119 --> 0:21:12.840 each other's jerry mandering. And so for your UK listeners, 0:21:12.840 --> 0:21:17.119 that basically means these local governments, the state and local 0:21:17.119 --> 0:21:20.440 and the governors can look at the map and they 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:23.440 can reconfigure the congressional district. So when I was growing 0:21:23.520 --> 0:21:26.720