1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,760 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcasted 5 00:00:15,760 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and at 6 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:23,480 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com Slash podcast. Let's talk Apple right now, Matt. 7 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: The company yesterday unveiled an updated iPad pro with a 8 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 1: faster processor, by G connectivity, upgraded screen, and new cameras. 9 00:00:33,159 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: Question is do investors care? Let's bring it on Treney 10 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: of Boston. He's a senior technology analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. 11 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,879 Speaker 1: So on, And as we think about the Apple story here, 12 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: I'm looking at the stock, it's you know, flat year 13 00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:50,120 Speaker 1: to date, you know, really underperforming the market here. What's 14 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: the story here for Apple right now? Yeah, that's a 15 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 1: that's a great question, Paul. Look, I mean we have 16 00:00:57,160 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: maintained that Apple works on two prime vectors, right The 17 00:01:01,320 --> 00:01:03,680 Speaker 1: stock and the company works on two primary vectors. One 18 00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:06,800 Speaker 1: is iPhone, iPhone shipments, and I think they're set up 19 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 1: really well in that regard, and the other is the 20 00:01:10,080 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: Juggernaut services franchise, where this is going to be a 21 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:18,400 Speaker 1: sixty five billion dollar year just the services franchise. In so, 22 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: I think that the iPad and the Max are very 23 00:01:22,480 --> 00:01:26,000 Speaker 1: nice products, and in any other company they were moved 24 00:01:26,000 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: the needles substantially and then some. But in the Apple's 25 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 1: scope of you know, three d and thirty and forty 26 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:37,400 Speaker 1: billion dollars of revenue with the just Go, you're it doesn't. Um, 27 00:01:37,800 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 1: It's it's intrictive, it's additive, but in it of itself, 28 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:45,600 Speaker 1: it's not a stand alone vector of leadership. Yeah, about 29 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: my Mac, I think two thousand or so. I love it, 30 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:52,400 Speaker 1: but I don't have any reason to replace it. Like 31 00:01:52,440 --> 00:01:56,520 Speaker 1: it does everything I needed to perfectly well. Um. But 32 00:01:56,680 --> 00:02:01,520 Speaker 1: in terms of the services, when you talk about services, 33 00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 1: I assume you're including, um, you know, the Apple Music, um, 34 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:10,880 Speaker 1: the Apple TV content, the podcast that they announced yesterday. 35 00:02:10,919 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 1: What what's the big driver with their services? Yeah, so 36 00:02:14,680 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 1: that's a that's a great question, Matt. Look, the services 37 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:21,239 Speaker 1: business has at least eleven subsegments, and we've tried to 38 00:02:21,280 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 1: sort of parse that out. At the Apple Music, Apple 39 00:02:26,000 --> 00:02:31,960 Speaker 1: TV TV, plus the Arcade business. Um, all of those 40 00:02:32,000 --> 00:02:35,800 Speaker 1: are smaller portions of the services franchise. So in in 41 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:40,440 Speaker 1: their updates yesterday they didn't really even Apple Card doesn't 42 00:02:40,480 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 1: move the needle at all for them. The biggest is 43 00:02:43,240 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: the download of apps, both the paid as well as 44 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:49,560 Speaker 1: the free apps. Um, So that's a big portion of 45 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:54,720 Speaker 1: the business. Apple care is it is a very profitable business. 46 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:59,799 Speaker 1: The iCloud business is very profitable, and um, the licensing 47 00:02:59,840 --> 00:03:03,320 Speaker 1: the business. So Google pays Apple for to be the 48 00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:06,680 Speaker 1: default search engine on the iPhone and that is a 49 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:09,440 Speaker 1: pretty big deal. That is a very lucrative, high margin 50 00:03:09,600 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 1: payment that Apple gets. Those are the big pieces of 51 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: the pie. Um. Apple Music is nice. It's still smaller 52 00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:22,519 Speaker 1: than Spotify from a revenue perspective. Apple pay is is nice. Again, 53 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 1: it's a very cohesive driver of all the different products 54 00:03:26,360 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: and services with the Apple platform. But in and of itself, Um, 55 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:33,200 Speaker 1: the people Apple Care as a driver, I mean, this 56 00:03:33,320 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: is like they seem like good people right at first clients, 57 00:03:36,920 --> 00:03:39,920 Speaker 1: but then they're making you pay extra to guarantee that 58 00:03:39,920 --> 00:03:42,320 Speaker 1: your product doesn't break in the next couple of years. 59 00:03:42,400 --> 00:03:47,080 Speaker 1: I mean, shouldn't that come for free? Well, look, I 60 00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 1: mean there's a replacement value, and the one of the 61 00:03:51,200 --> 00:03:55,720 Speaker 1: things that these are expensive components to make, an expensive 62 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 1: components to assemble. Um, there has to be there's a 63 00:03:59,680 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: minimum amount of guarantee that comes with the product. But 64 00:04:02,600 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: it's only to the degree that it's a manufacturing issue. Right, 65 00:04:06,400 --> 00:04:09,760 Speaker 1: If I stomp on my iPhone, I don't expect Aple 66 00:04:09,800 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: to pick up the tab for that. Alright, alright, if 67 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,479 Speaker 1: I wreck my car, I don't expect you know, Mercedes 68 00:04:17,520 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 1: to pick up the tab. But if it just stops working, 69 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:23,720 Speaker 1: you know, or even the manufacturing issue, you can certainly 70 00:04:23,760 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: take it in. But otherways you pay in shorts. Oh, 71 00:04:26,240 --> 00:04:29,440 Speaker 1: they have the nice people help borrow whatever it is. Now, 72 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: you can just take it into the store. I'm sure 73 00:04:30,880 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: they'll they'll take care of you. Sorry, I'm looking at 74 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 1: the balance sheet here, I'm looking at the financials for 75 00:04:35,760 --> 00:04:39,200 Speaker 1: this company. You know, almost two hundred billion dollars in cash, 76 00:04:39,880 --> 00:04:43,840 Speaker 1: eighty billion dollars of free cash flow every single year. 77 00:04:44,360 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 1: Then they got a dividend yield of zero points six 78 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:48,919 Speaker 1: what's up with that? Why don't they raise their dividend, 79 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:53,760 Speaker 1: buy back more stock? This is just craziness. Yeah, so look, 80 00:04:53,839 --> 00:04:57,640 Speaker 1: they're they have accelerated share, They have accelerated share. We 81 00:04:57,680 --> 00:05:01,720 Speaker 1: purchase programs. They have a big buy back up re 82 00:05:01,920 --> 00:05:05,000 Speaker 1: up potentially coming in the next quarter. UM. All of 83 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,719 Speaker 1: those have to happen. But when you have again the 84 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:11,600 Speaker 1: size of cash flow generation that this company has, particularly 85 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: this year, UM, when they've done really, really well with 86 00:05:14,800 --> 00:05:17,719 Speaker 1: the launch of their new iPhone, it's it's um. It's 87 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:21,479 Speaker 1: staggeringly big, and it's it's a it's a problem that 88 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 1: needs to be overcome. It is genuinely a problem of 89 00:05:24,640 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: how fast they can deploy that cash UM, either in 90 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:31,720 Speaker 1: stock buy backs or dividends or internal r and D, 91 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 1: which is not going to move the needle from a 92 00:05:34,160 --> 00:05:36,720 Speaker 1: cash balance perspective. So it's an absolute problem. You're right. 93 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 1: The air tags such a great idea. I was hopeful 94 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:44,680 Speaker 1: when other companies came out with similar products. Um, is 95 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: this going to be something that we all have our 96 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: key chains in the next couple of years. Absolutely? I 97 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,719 Speaker 1: think you know, I see the AirPod. The air Tags 98 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: is very similar to the the air Pods franchise that 99 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: was a sleeper hit and continues to be a really 100 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:02,200 Speaker 1: good product of them. UM. And I think it sort 101 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:06,560 Speaker 1: of again adds to the platform effect that Apple has UM. 102 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: And the security is robust, so I can definitely see 103 00:06:10,600 --> 00:06:16,120 Speaker 1: this product taking off and being a noticeable de line item. 104 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: All right, I'll I'm excited to see the reviews of 105 00:06:18,680 --> 00:06:20,280 Speaker 1: that on. Thanks so much for joining us on a 106 00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:24,320 Speaker 1: Trini vass on their senior semiconductor and hardware analyst for 107 00:06:24,440 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence. This is Bloomberg. We were talking precious medals. 108 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:35,919 Speaker 1: I want to bring it every moment right now, practious 109 00:06:35,920 --> 00:06:41,159 Speaker 1: medals specialist at Gainesville Coins. Um. I mean gold is 110 00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 1: probably the focus of most of our listeners in terms 111 00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:50,120 Speaker 1: of you know, precious metals that individuals hold. Everett, we 112 00:06:50,200 --> 00:06:52,880 Speaker 1: haven't really seen gold, you know, in the face of 113 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: inflation expectations, we haven't really seen gold move to really 114 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:00,960 Speaker 1: impressive levels. All oh, it's had a good run the 115 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: last few days right now at sevent troy ounce. Where's 116 00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:10,640 Speaker 1: it headed. Well, that recent rally you mentioned has pulled 117 00:07:10,680 --> 00:07:14,320 Speaker 1: gold back to essentially as December loads, and it seems 118 00:07:14,360 --> 00:07:17,680 Speaker 1: poised to retest those levels in the short term. It 119 00:07:17,880 --> 00:07:21,800 Speaker 1: certainly helps that the dollar has pulled back a bit. Um, 120 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,960 Speaker 1: but really the gold trade has been pretty boring, right Um, 121 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 1: We've seen some subdued trading in the West. But when 122 00:07:28,040 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 1: I look internationally, UM, there's some key developments that I 123 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 1: think are rather favorable for gold and could pretty swiftly 124 00:07:35,320 --> 00:07:38,960 Speaker 1: push us back above that eighteen hundred announced level. UM. 125 00:07:39,160 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 1: China's relaxed it's pretty strict rules on who can import gold, 126 00:07:43,680 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: so several billion dollars of gold are expected to flow 127 00:07:47,240 --> 00:07:51,360 Speaker 1: into Beijing in the next couple of months. And similarly, 128 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,440 Speaker 1: in India UM they have ease their rather high import 129 00:07:54,520 --> 00:07:57,640 Speaker 1: duties on gold and as a result we saw record 130 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 1: high first quarter imports into India year over year UM. 131 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 1: And and and even in South Korea, the gold trade trading 132 00:08:04,600 --> 00:08:06,800 Speaker 1: volumes have been running pretty hot and their own pace 133 00:08:06,920 --> 00:08:10,720 Speaker 1: for about a fifty increase year on year. So these 134 00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 1: strong sources of demand should at least put a floor 135 00:08:13,800 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: below the gold price, perhaps around seventeen fifty ounce for 136 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:20,800 Speaker 1: the time being. But I do agree that overall in 137 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:24,120 Speaker 1: the West, UH had the gold trade has been pretty subdued. 138 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: Really isn't moving anywhere yet ever? Is that reflecting the 139 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 1: rise in the ownership of bitcoin and people viewing bitcoin 140 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:35,960 Speaker 1: as a perhaps a comparable store of value to golds, 141 00:08:36,040 --> 00:08:38,360 Speaker 1: and they're saying, hey, maybe i'll take a little bit 142 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:43,400 Speaker 1: off my you know, my gold column put it into bitcoin. Sure, 143 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: I do think that you know there is this clear 144 00:08:46,080 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: rivalry between the two groups of investors UM. But somewhat interestingly, 145 00:08:51,120 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: survey data gathered between two thousand seventeen and two thousand 146 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:59,080 Speaker 1: twenty by a British firm called Global web Index show 147 00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:01,760 Speaker 1: that there is had a bit of crossover between the 148 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:06,079 Speaker 1: demographics who are interested in cryptocurrencies and those who are 149 00:09:06,200 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: interested in gold. UM. It is a bit surprising because 150 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:13,320 Speaker 1: we tend to associate gold with the older investing crowd 151 00:09:13,360 --> 00:09:17,320 Speaker 1: and cryptocurrencies with younger investors and people who are just 152 00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,840 Speaker 1: getting into the markets, but in fact there is this overlap. 153 00:09:21,280 --> 00:09:25,760 Speaker 1: So with the rise and interest in cryptos and n 154 00:09:25,800 --> 00:09:28,720 Speaker 1: f t s non fungible tokens, we are seeing that 155 00:09:28,800 --> 00:09:32,839 Speaker 1: sife and off some investment dollars away from the precious metals. 156 00:09:32,880 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 1: Just as cryptos rallied to start the second quarter, open 157 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: interest in COMEX gold futures hit it two year low. 158 00:09:39,800 --> 00:09:42,200 Speaker 1: So I do believe there is a correlation between the 159 00:09:42,200 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: two UM. But as there are some an emergence of 160 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:50,400 Speaker 1: some gold backed cryptocurrencies, perhaps we could see some further 161 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 1: merging between those two asset classics classes in between the 162 00:09:54,559 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 1: types of investors who are interested in them. Yeah, that 163 00:09:57,120 --> 00:10:01,559 Speaker 1: that would be interesting. Although UM hasn't yet become really 164 00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 1: popular the idea of UM gold backed crypto, but it 165 00:10:06,760 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 1: makes a lot of sense if we were willing to 166 00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:13,840 Speaker 1: trade goldbacked FIAT for so long. I wonder about UM palladium. 167 00:10:13,880 --> 00:10:16,360 Speaker 1: As the headlines just crossed the terminal, we hit an 168 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:20,719 Speaker 1: all time high. Does this rally continue or is this 169 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: just part of the auto sales bottleneck due to the 170 00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:31,679 Speaker 1: ship shortage. Well, certainly the the semiconductor and chips shortage 171 00:10:31,720 --> 00:10:34,600 Speaker 1: is affecting the auto industry, which has that direct effect 172 00:10:34,640 --> 00:10:39,800 Speaker 1: on palladium. But even outside of automobiles, the energy transition 173 00:10:39,880 --> 00:10:45,160 Speaker 1: to cleaner fuels could palladium could figure importantly into that. 174 00:10:45,400 --> 00:10:48,960 Speaker 1: Both platinum and palladium UM are involved in fuel emerging 175 00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: fuel cell technology and other hydrogen based fuels. And we 176 00:10:52,960 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 1: also have to remember on the supply side that the 177 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:00,200 Speaker 1: majority of the world's palladium supply comes from Russia. So 178 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:05,360 Speaker 1: these reciprocal UM tensions and sanctions between the United States 179 00:11:05,360 --> 00:11:09,120 Speaker 1: and Russia could perhaps put a barrier on a lot 180 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 1: of that palladium getting out of Russia. So I do 181 00:11:11,920 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: think that the trend is still going to be upward 182 00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,800 Speaker 1: for palladium, even though we're at the peak of what 183 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,360 Speaker 1: is a multi year rally in hitting those all time 184 00:11:19,440 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 1: highs because of the supply concerns and because palladium does 185 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:28,480 Speaker 1: figure into the potential green future for our our energy sources. 186 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:35,000 Speaker 1: All right, great, great intel there, and we're so glad 187 00:11:35,040 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: to get you on. Everett Millman, Precious metals specialists from 188 00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:43,360 Speaker 1: Gainesville coins UH coming to us obviously out of Gainesville, Florida, 189 00:11:43,559 --> 00:11:46,480 Speaker 1: talking us through what's going on in in gold, what's 190 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:50,480 Speaker 1: going on in UH and and really in the kind 191 00:11:50,480 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 1: of cross currents between the metal and the crypto sector 192 00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: as well, and um, what what is in which which 193 00:11:57,880 --> 00:12:01,640 Speaker 1: university is in Gainesville? Is that university's okay? So, so 194 00:12:01,800 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: Jacksonville is Florida? You those are the Gators and Gainsville, Florida. 195 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 1: Tallahassee's Florida state. Oh Tallahassa, right right, cool, all right, 196 00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:14,640 Speaker 1: thanks for setting me straight. Our university specialist, this is Bloomberg. 197 00:12:17,360 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 1: Now let's bring in David Coudla. He's the CEO and 198 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:24,120 Speaker 1: chief investment strategist Mainstay Capital Management is here to talk 199 00:12:24,160 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: to us about his investment strategy in the current market environment. David, 200 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: I guess the first thing we have to know, um, 201 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:41,440 Speaker 1: is your forecast for growth and inflation. Well, uh, first, 202 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,000 Speaker 1: we think that we're going to have an amazing first 203 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:49,080 Speaker 1: quarter for growth, both in terms of what we're seeing 204 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:53,000 Speaker 1: in terms of GDP for the economy and what we see, 205 00:12:53,160 --> 00:12:56,560 Speaker 1: you know, coming out of this uh uh impact of 206 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: the COVID and the lockdowns on the economy from last year. 207 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: So a year over year, you know, we're going to 208 00:13:02,480 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 1: see amazing growth in the economy. We're also going to see, uh, 209 00:13:07,600 --> 00:13:10,920 Speaker 1: the earnings are going to be tremendous. We're expecting the 210 00:13:10,960 --> 00:13:14,360 Speaker 1: best earnings since uh in the last couple of years. 211 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:19,000 Speaker 1: And we're seeing inflation that is just you know, incredible, 212 00:13:19,040 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: not necessarily the inflation that the Federal Reserve monitors, although 213 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:28,199 Speaker 1: that did come in at high level year over year 214 00:13:28,320 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: headline inflation highest in many years. But when we look 215 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,040 Speaker 1: at some of the other commodity prices, you know, we've 216 00:13:36,080 --> 00:13:39,600 Speaker 1: got iron ore trading in a three year high, nearly 217 00:13:39,600 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 1: triple since last year, lumber more than five times from 218 00:13:43,679 --> 00:13:48,360 Speaker 1: this you know, from this time last year. So uh, 219 00:13:48,440 --> 00:13:51,840 Speaker 1: you know, we're we're really seeing, Uh, inflation in many 220 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 1: sectors of the economy has run has run at a 221 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:59,400 Speaker 1: very very high level. Do you consider that inflation transitory, 222 00:13:59,440 --> 00:14:03,000 Speaker 1: which is what I've the FED is suggesting, or is 223 00:14:03,040 --> 00:14:09,600 Speaker 1: this something that maybe we need to worry about. Well, um, 224 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:11,480 Speaker 1: I know that there are a lot of people to 225 00:14:11,520 --> 00:14:14,480 Speaker 1: take objection with this and take objection with the FED 226 00:14:14,559 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: stating this, but we do see it as transitory. We 227 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 1: think that a lot of this, especially what I just 228 00:14:20,840 --> 00:14:23,760 Speaker 1: talked about in some of these commodities. And although we 229 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 1: may be in the beginning of a commodity supercycle, the 230 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,520 Speaker 1: levels that we've seen are a result of a couple 231 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:39,320 Speaker 1: of things. The COVID the pandemic had impacted the ability 232 00:14:39,400 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 1: to produce some of these commodities. But also, um, the 233 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:48,200 Speaker 1: construction sector, both a commercial and residential and especially residential 234 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: never really slowed down during COVID. Housing has done very 235 00:14:52,600 --> 00:14:56,960 Speaker 1: very well. Uh, just you know, incredible pace all the 236 00:14:56,960 --> 00:15:01,360 Speaker 1: way through the pandemic, and the supplier didn't expect that, 237 00:15:01,760 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 1: and so there's just incredible pent up demand for those 238 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 1: raw materials, those those supplies for housing in particular and 239 00:15:09,800 --> 00:15:12,840 Speaker 1: building in general, and so you know that will be 240 00:15:12,920 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: met and I think we'll see those prices come back 241 00:15:15,200 --> 00:15:17,240 Speaker 1: down by as early as the end of the year. 242 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: So so that that those type of inflationary forces I 243 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:26,960 Speaker 1: think our transitory uh and ultimately if inflation in general, 244 00:15:27,520 --> 00:15:31,560 Speaker 1: the long term secontary forces for deflation come back in. 245 00:15:32,800 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 1: Oh interesting, So does how does that affect the stocks 246 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 1: you want to buy? And can you give us some picks? Well, 247 00:15:42,840 --> 00:15:47,440 Speaker 1: so we you know, in we were with the stay 248 00:15:47,440 --> 00:15:50,680 Speaker 1: at home trades, a lot of the technology uh you 249 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:53,400 Speaker 1: know a lot of the e commerce trades and uh 250 00:15:53,840 --> 00:15:59,560 Speaker 1: internet e commerce I T technology, we moved to the 251 00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:04,680 Speaker 1: consumer recyclical small caps. Now we're moving out back into 252 00:16:04,760 --> 00:16:08,240 Speaker 1: some of the growth her names. So we still you know, 253 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:13,280 Speaker 1: some of the areas like the global x US infrastructure 254 00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,320 Speaker 1: development et F, PAVES, P a V. Hence the name 255 00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:22,240 Speaker 1: holds companies like Deer Vulcan Materials, Emerson Electric. We think 256 00:16:22,280 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: they have further to go as the economy reopens um 257 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,320 Speaker 1: and we're still looking at and still holding some of 258 00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 1: the value names that in E T F s that 259 00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:37,240 Speaker 1: will uh we think continue to do. There's been a 260 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:39,560 Speaker 1: setback in value here the past couple of days that 261 00:16:39,640 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 1: passed month, but we think value has further to go 262 00:16:42,560 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 1: with the fiscal stimulus that's in the system and coming. 263 00:16:46,560 --> 00:16:49,040 Speaker 1: But we're looking at at some of the some of 264 00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:52,640 Speaker 1: the ets like mote Van Vector's morning Star, wide Moat, 265 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:56,600 Speaker 1: et F holds names like Google and Tell, young brands, 266 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: general dynamics. These are the brands that have a wide 267 00:17:00,760 --> 00:17:04,240 Speaker 1: defensible mode around their business model and and UH and 268 00:17:04,280 --> 00:17:08,240 Speaker 1: then a guard BTF growth at a reasonable price and 269 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:13,760 Speaker 1: and these are another growthier type e t flds like Facebook, 270 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:17,359 Speaker 1: wholety homes. We still think the home builders have further 271 00:17:17,480 --> 00:17:22,080 Speaker 1: to go, United Reynolds, Adobe, and these are just some 272 00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:26,800 Speaker 1: of these, a mix of still some cyclicals with some 273 00:17:26,880 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 1: growth names that we think can do well as we 274 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:35,640 Speaker 1: continue to move through the reopening the economy. David, thank 275 00:17:35,680 --> 00:17:37,680 Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. We always appreciate getting 276 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 1: your thoughts and perspective on these markets. David Coudla, CEO 277 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:47,520 Speaker 1: and chief investment strategist for Mainstay Capital. Again still constructive 278 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:49,800 Speaker 1: on this market map, but you know, kind of rotating 279 00:17:50,119 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: maybe a little bit back into some of those growth names. 280 00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,760 Speaker 1: We heard from David that cyclical trade had worked so 281 00:17:55,800 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 1: well released since September of last year. As you know, 282 00:17:59,240 --> 00:18:02,200 Speaker 1: we started to get the some positive vaccine UH data 283 00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,080 Speaker 1: points out there. Then we saw a rotation of the rotation, 284 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,520 Speaker 1: a rotation of the rotation, and I think, you know, 285 00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,960 Speaker 1: we're starting to see U some folks take a look 286 00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:12,480 Speaker 1: at some of those growthier names as well. So lots 287 00:18:12,560 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 1: of ways to play this market. Bloomberg Opinion every day 288 00:18:20,600 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: at this hour we get a columnist from our opinion 289 00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:28,679 Speaker 1: UM our opinion group to talk about a column he 290 00:18:28,800 --> 00:18:31,360 Speaker 1: or she has written. Sarah Hallzac joins US now retail 291 00:18:31,600 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. You've written about inflation a very 292 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:39,199 Speaker 1: timely moment, saying that not everyone can copy Procter and 293 00:18:39,240 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 1: Gambles price hikes. You talk about, um, the ease with 294 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:47,399 Speaker 1: which PNG raises prices on diapers as well as tampons, 295 00:18:47,440 --> 00:18:51,880 Speaker 1: but said, UM say that it's difficult for everybody, UM, 296 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:56,240 Speaker 1: including competitors to raise prices for the same reasons. Yeah, 297 00:18:56,320 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 1: that's right, And I think part of that is because 298 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 1: we've actually seen consumer brands flexing pricing power throughout the 299 00:19:03,880 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: pandemic in ways that are starting to pressure consumers wallets, right, UM, 300 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 1: I've written about that, everyone from Crux to Crux clogs 301 00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:16,560 Speaker 1: to just peanut butter to Whirlpool appliances have seen the 302 00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 1: benefit of pricing actions during this time. UM. One way 303 00:19:21,280 --> 00:19:24,199 Speaker 1: is by cutting promotions. We've seen a lot of that 304 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 1: over the last year, not offering that coupon that may 305 00:19:27,400 --> 00:19:30,480 Speaker 1: have been table stakes before the pandemic. UM, and also 306 00:19:30,520 --> 00:19:33,880 Speaker 1: through lift pricing increases and for a variety of consumer 307 00:19:33,920 --> 00:19:37,040 Speaker 1: psychology reasons. Consumers have largely put up with it. But 308 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:38,880 Speaker 1: I think we are getting to a point where it's 309 00:19:38,880 --> 00:19:41,600 Speaker 1: fair to ask how much more of this can consumers 310 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,399 Speaker 1: see before they bulk? All right, So sir, what are 311 00:19:44,440 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: we seeing in terms of maybe some of the you know, 312 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,560 Speaker 1: the bigger players of practics and gambles of the world 313 00:19:49,680 --> 00:19:52,760 Speaker 1: versus maybe some of the smaller brands. Do they have 314 00:19:52,920 --> 00:19:57,720 Speaker 1: similar pricing power or do you have is it really select? Uh? 315 00:19:57,760 --> 00:19:59,800 Speaker 1: They do not have similar pricing power. I think we've 316 00:19:59,800 --> 00:20:03,280 Speaker 1: see these big brands UM are able to do this. Uh. 317 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 1: You know one thing P ANDNG has talked about that 318 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: the pandemic really did was kind of bring people back 319 00:20:08,320 --> 00:20:12,200 Speaker 1: to big, national, trusted brands in a big way. UM. 320 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 1: I think when you're in this time of crisis, you 321 00:20:15,040 --> 00:20:18,439 Speaker 1: maybe don't feel as comfortable trying something new. You just 322 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:21,399 Speaker 1: want the thing that you know works, especially in the 323 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:24,359 Speaker 1: categories that P ANDNG is in, like household cleaning products. 324 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 1: UM thinks that would you know, contribute to your safety 325 00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,720 Speaker 1: during this time. UM So, I do think the big 326 00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:33,239 Speaker 1: national brands have particular pricing power. And so you know 327 00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,359 Speaker 1: what P and G is committed to doing. Is it 328 00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:39,120 Speaker 1: said in its BabyCare, feminine care, and adult and Continent's division. 329 00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 1: Um By September, you're going to see a mid to 330 00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:46,320 Speaker 1: high single digit price increases on products in those categories. 331 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:49,520 Speaker 1: And that follows a similar announcement from kimber Kimberly Clark, 332 00:20:49,960 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: that's the company that makes Huggy diapers and Scott toilet paper. 333 00:20:53,840 --> 00:20:56,639 Speaker 1: They may would do price hypes of a similar magnitude. 334 00:20:57,960 --> 00:20:59,760 Speaker 1: I'll tell you would be a blessing for the earth. 335 00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:03,800 Speaker 1: People would stop using disposable diapers and start using cloth 336 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:08,520 Speaker 1: diapers instead. Unlikely as that is to happen. Where where 337 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,840 Speaker 1: is it difficult to hike prices? Sarah? I think in 338 00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: the most discretionary categories, And I think you know one 339 00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:20,119 Speaker 1: thing that happened uh during the pandemic was that uh 340 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 1: safety and convenience really Trump's value and consumers buying decisions. Right, 341 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:29,040 Speaker 1: So in order to only have to go to one store, 342 00:21:29,400 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 1: you just thought whatever was available even if it wasn't 343 00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:34,920 Speaker 1: on sale, or you just sucked up that the prices 344 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,600 Speaker 1: were higher online for the safety of having it delivered 345 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:41,400 Speaker 1: to your doorstep. And I think now that consumers are 346 00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:45,320 Speaker 1: more mobile again, they're going to feel comfortable hitting more stores. 347 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:48,160 Speaker 1: They're going to feel comfortable, you know, doing more price 348 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:52,760 Speaker 1: comparison and engaging in that activity again. And so uh, 349 00:21:52,920 --> 00:21:55,359 Speaker 1: that is that is going to make them more conscious 350 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,280 Speaker 1: of price tags. And so I think these really discretionary 351 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,440 Speaker 1: items like do you really need need a new piece 352 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,399 Speaker 1: of clothing? Do you really need a new handbag? Um? 353 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 1: Do you really need more sports equipment after all of 354 00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: the camping year you bought last summer when being outdoors 355 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,440 Speaker 1: was the only thing you could do? Um? I think 356 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: all of those are going to be areas where raising 357 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,200 Speaker 1: prices is just more difficult than it is on something 358 00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,040 Speaker 1: as essential ast diapers, which is a purchase you just 359 00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 1: can't put off all right, So, Sarah, are we seeing 360 00:22:24,080 --> 00:22:28,320 Speaker 1: consumer shifting maybe from name brands to store brands to 361 00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:32,879 Speaker 1: try and to find value. So that is definitely something 362 00:22:32,920 --> 00:22:36,720 Speaker 1: we have often seen during a recession. UM, I don't 363 00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:39,720 Speaker 1: think we've seen a lot of clear evidence of that yet. 364 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:41,679 Speaker 1: I think some of what that play is what I 365 00:22:41,720 --> 00:22:45,520 Speaker 1: was describing earlier about this flight to really trusted brands 366 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:47,720 Speaker 1: UM and really wanting to make sure, especially with things 367 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 1: like household cleaners or laundry detergent, that you're really getting 368 00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 1: something that's going to perform, that you're going to get 369 00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,040 Speaker 1: bang for your buck. So I don't think we've seen 370 00:22:56,560 --> 00:23:00,800 Speaker 1: that migration to store brands yet, and specifically with this 371 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:03,720 Speaker 1: diaper issue. UM. Often if you saw the big brands 372 00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,600 Speaker 1: like Pampers or Huggies raising prices, that could be an 373 00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:10,960 Speaker 1: advantage for store brands. But because this is a commodity 374 00:23:11,040 --> 00:23:14,320 Speaker 1: driven issue, UM that's affecting the whole industry. It's because 375 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:18,040 Speaker 1: the price of pulpe is really straining their margins. I 376 00:23:18,119 --> 00:23:20,000 Speaker 1: don't think you're going to see that flight to store 377 00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:23,040 Speaker 1: brands because I think everyone across the board is going 378 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:26,840 Speaker 1: to be having to make pricing adjustments to shoulder these costs. Yeah, 379 00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 1: it'll be interesting to see if any of this of 380 00:23:29,440 --> 00:23:33,400 Speaker 1: these price pricing issues go away. Right because UM, we're 381 00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 1: assured by Jerome Powell that this is transitory, and it 382 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,680 Speaker 1: doesn't sound like, at least in the cases that we're 383 00:23:40,680 --> 00:23:43,800 Speaker 1: talking about from P and G or Kimberly Clark, that 384 00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:47,800 Speaker 1: that it is going to go away very quickly. Right, 385 00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:50,399 Speaker 1: These commodity costs issues might take a little while to 386 00:23:50,720 --> 00:23:52,639 Speaker 1: work out. And look, when you talk about you know, 387 00:23:52,680 --> 00:23:57,400 Speaker 1: the consumer sector overall, UH, there's much more baked into this. There's, yes, UM, 388 00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,840 Speaker 1: the port congestion and the global shortage of shipping containers. 389 00:24:00,880 --> 00:24:03,640 Speaker 1: All of that is impacting their logistics costs. But they're 390 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:07,080 Speaker 1: also dealing with another issue, which is that e commerce 391 00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,720 Speaker 1: as a percentage of their sales likely skyrocketed last year. 392 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:13,800 Speaker 1: And I expect that people start moving around more UM 393 00:24:13,840 --> 00:24:15,520 Speaker 1: that will retreat a little bit and people will go 394 00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: back to doing some in store purchasing. But you have 395 00:24:17,880 --> 00:24:20,359 Speaker 1: to remember that the rise of e commerce UM is 396 00:24:20,440 --> 00:24:23,359 Speaker 1: often harmful to the profit margins of retailers because they 397 00:24:23,400 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 1: have to foot that bill for last miles delivery UM 398 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,680 Speaker 1: and in some cases have to pay for return delivery 399 00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 1: if you decide you don't like the items. That's really 400 00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:34,360 Speaker 1: expensive for them, and it's a real change in their 401 00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:37,480 Speaker 1: cost structure. As more and more of their business moves online, 402 00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:40,480 Speaker 1: and so that's just one more thing, uh, they're dealing 403 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:42,920 Speaker 1: with that is not going to go away, and that's 404 00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:48,560 Speaker 1: going to shape their pricing decisions. Does just does practical 405 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:54,040 Speaker 1: gamble care whether they're product gets purchased, you know, on 406 00:24:54,200 --> 00:24:58,720 Speaker 1: in a brick and mortar store or online. No, I 407 00:24:58,760 --> 00:25:00,800 Speaker 1: don't think so at this point. I think you know, 408 00:25:01,119 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: ultimately their direct customers are the retailers themselves, not the 409 00:25:04,800 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: shopper um and so I think you know their focus 410 00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:11,320 Speaker 1: is just on supplying those retailers with product that they 411 00:25:11,400 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 1: can sell and whatever channel the customer most wants to 412 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,840 Speaker 1: spend their money. Sarah Halzac, thank you so much. We 413 00:25:17,960 --> 00:25:20,760 Speaker 1: appreciate that. Sarah halls like she's a retail columnist for 414 00:25:20,800 --> 00:25:23,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion. You can read all of her work and 415 00:25:23,840 --> 00:25:27,440 Speaker 1: that of our good folks at Bloomberg Opinion, at Bloomberg 416 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:30,959 Speaker 1: dot com, slash Opinion, or on the Bloomberg terminal by 417 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 1: typing O P I N go. We have some fantastic 418 00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Opinion columnists and they really put out some really 419 00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,879 Speaker 1: thought provoking pieces. Sarah really focuses on all things in 420 00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:43,600 Speaker 1: the retail space, and we are seeing commodity prices. We 421 00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:47,359 Speaker 1: have seen commodity prices increase pretty much across the board, 422 00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 1: and again the question is how much will manufacturers, uh, 423 00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: you know, eat those cost increases or pass them along 424 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,600 Speaker 1: to consumers. And in terms of products, we're seeing it 425 00:25:57,640 --> 00:26:01,040 Speaker 1: on the consumer side, prices going up this boom. Thanks 426 00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can subscribe 427 00:26:04,600 --> 00:26:08,320 Speaker 1: and listen to interviews of Apple Podcasts or whatever podcast 428 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:11,880 Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter at 429 00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,719 Speaker 1: Matt Miller three. On Fall Sweeney, I'm on Twitter at 430 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,600 Speaker 1: pt Sweeney before the podcast. You can always catch us 431 00:26:18,640 --> 00:26:20,040 Speaker 1: worldwide at Bloomberg Radio