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Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Cirelli, Chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening, folks. We have so many headlines to

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Speaker 1: get through. The SMP five hundred sunk four point four percent,

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Speaker 1: and the biggest sell off in two weeks. That's what's

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Speaker 1: going on in the markets. This as the President is

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Speaker 1: going to be meeting with oil executives who are reeling

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Speaker 1: reeling from that price drop. So lots going on on

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Speaker 1: the eco data front, obviously, is the Corona virus continues

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Speaker 1: to wreak havoc on the lives of so many people

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Speaker 1: from a health perspective, from an economic perspective, and then

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Speaker 1: get this, And this is why I'm so glad that

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Speaker 1: Congressman John Garamendi starting off the show with US Democrat

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Speaker 1: from California, a good friend of the program. Congressman, thanks

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Speaker 1: for being here. I gotta ask you this first question.

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Speaker 1: Off of this bombshell report that China concealed the extent

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Speaker 1: of the virus outbreak. The U. S. Intelligence Committee is saying,

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Speaker 1: I you're on the Foreign Affairs Committee in the House

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Speaker 1: of Representatives, Nick Wadams, Jennifer Jacobs, theyre wor quote China

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Speaker 1: has concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak in its country,

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Speaker 1: under reporting both total cases and deaths it suffered from

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Speaker 1: the disease, the U s Intelligence community concluded in a

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Speaker 1: classified report to the White House. According to three US officials,

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Speaker 1: all right, so, so what are we gonna do that for?

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Speaker 1: To respond to this? China has cost lives, They've they've

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Speaker 1: shut down the global economy. I'm outraged, Congressman, and I

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Speaker 1: know a lot of people who feel that way. Well,

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Speaker 1: I can certainly understand why you. A lot of people,

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Speaker 1: and even I feel that way with regard to the

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Speaker 1: intelligence report, uh, since it was classified, even if I

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Speaker 1: had seen it, which I have not, and I'm on

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Speaker 1: the Armed Services Committee, We've not had a report of

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Speaker 1: that kind to the committee at all up until this

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Speaker 1: moment um. So there's been a lot of concern and

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Speaker 1: reporting that China miss lad itself, that is locally within

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Speaker 1: Wuhan and then to the national government, and the national

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Speaker 1: government also varying a lot of information along with a

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Speaker 1: lot of people. So that the bottom line is China

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Speaker 1: was not forthcoming, and the result of that was that

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Speaker 1: the virus spread perhaps far more rapidly. Also, the presidents

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Speaker 1: that he shut down travel from China. I represent Travis

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Speaker 1: Air Force based in California, and I can tell you

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Speaker 1: that he specifically brought it's based several hundred people from

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Speaker 1: Ruman at the very time the epidemic was raging in

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Speaker 1: that city. So maybe it was shut down in some ways,

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Speaker 1: but it was certainly opened in California. We we have

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Speaker 1: to assume, Kevin, that this virus spread very very quickly

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Speaker 1: around the world. I know, for example, that I had

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Speaker 1: planned a h Armed Services Committee trip to Ethiopia and

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Speaker 1: Djibouti in early February. We cancel I canceled it because

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Speaker 1: I knew then that Ethiopian Airlines was running a daily

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Speaker 1: flight back and forth to China, Ruan as well as

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Speaker 1: to Beijing. So we said, no, that's not a good

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Speaker 1: idea worldwide should out. This thing was everywhere very very quickly.

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Speaker 1: Is China to blame, They certainly hold responsibility, and also, frankly,

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Speaker 1: the American government does too, because it was extremely slow

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Speaker 1: to the fight. Well, Congressman, every I mean and I yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I agree with that. I'm not, but but

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Speaker 1: I want to stick with this China because because you

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Speaker 1: and I have had offline conversations about online conversations about

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Speaker 1: this on the record author, I mean, but and I

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Speaker 1: want to say this without emotion, without theatrics, but China

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Speaker 1: should pay for this. I mean, with all due respects.

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Speaker 1: I've heard the big is bogus in the media saying, oh,

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Speaker 1: China did such a good job of controlling this and

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Speaker 1: getting their testing. No, they didn't. It got out of Wuhan.

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Speaker 1: How did it? How did it get out of Wuhan?

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Speaker 1: Of China and General Secretary Si jing Ping did such

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Speaker 1: a good job, then how did it get out of Wuhan?

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Speaker 1: And I don't even want to have that conversation though.

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Speaker 1: But but from a policy standpoint, and I'll brain it in,

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Speaker 1: Kevin rein it in. How from a policy standpoint can

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Speaker 1: the US and the global community, from a third world

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Speaker 1: country to a to Europe, how can they pressure China

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Speaker 1: to have to deal with this and make radical changes

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Speaker 1: so that it doesn't happen God forbid again? Uh, the

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Speaker 1: problem is a political problem. Following the stars. This is

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Speaker 1: a report that came I believe from well, a report

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Speaker 1: about China following the stars epidemic about don't years ago? Now,

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Speaker 1: maybe a little longer. Um China put in place a

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Speaker 1: very sophisticated, robust public health program and it worked until

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Speaker 1: the Corona Noble coronavirus arrived, in which case the politicians,

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Speaker 1: the political leadership in Wuhan, then the national government intervened

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Speaker 1: to dampen and to not not allow that public health

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Speaker 1: system do not only function robustly as it could have done,

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Speaker 1: but also to not let any information out thereby making

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Speaker 1: it a worldwide problem. And so yes, they did know

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Speaker 1: how to how to deal with a public health crisis.

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Speaker 1: The problem is the political system didn't allow it. The

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Speaker 1: same thing here in America. To bring this thing right

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Speaker 1: back home once again, we have had multiple epidemics H one,

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Speaker 1: n one stars others. The bird flew all of these

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Speaker 1: things over the last twenty five years, and each time

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Speaker 1: it happens, we ramp up, build a big system, do

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Speaker 1: a lot of testing, do a lot of vaccines, uh

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Speaker 1: and figure out how to deal with the illness. And

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Speaker 1: then it goes its subsides or disappears, and we go

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Speaker 1: back to steady state funding which is woefully totally inadequate

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Speaker 1: to protect us and to prepare us for the next crisis.

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Speaker 1: Bottom line of these things are not new. We have

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Speaker 1: seen this time after time after time down through the

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Speaker 1: decades United States government and many states governments. If we

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Speaker 1: have not set the money to maintain a strong public

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Speaker 1: health system, and as indicated by our President Denial. All right,

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Speaker 1: thank you, congressman. Problem, Thank you, Congressman. We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to leave it there. Much more coming up next, that's

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Speaker 1: Congress from John Garamandi. I'm Kevin's really you're listening to

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Speaker 1: the bloombird in terms of the markets and where things

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Speaker 1: go for here and coming up, we're gonna get David

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Speaker 1: Dwyer on the line of Bloomberg Intelligence to talk about, uh,

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Speaker 1: talk about all of this. But the US stocks fell

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Speaker 1: for the third time in four days as investors braced

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Speaker 1: for a longer economic shutdown that's likely to devastate corporate

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Speaker 1: profits and dividends. The dollar rose with treasuries. The SMP

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Speaker 1: five hundred dropped the most in two weeks, with sentiments

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Speaker 1: souring after US officials gave sobering assessments of the pandemics

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Speaker 1: potential impact. President Trump warned of a painful upcoming period

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Speaker 1: for the country, while New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said

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Speaker 1: that the model showed the COVID nineteen outbreak may not

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Speaker 1: peak in the state in the state until the end

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Speaker 1: of April, and that's just for New York folks. Italy

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Speaker 1: also said Wednesday it would extend its luck down. David

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Speaker 1: Dwyers on the line. David, thank you so much for

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Speaker 1: coming on. He's the global director of research at Bloomberg Intelligence.

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Speaker 1: We were supposed to have you on yesterday, but we

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Speaker 1: got we got. We had a toss to to the

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Speaker 1: President for the daily briefing, So I appreciate you coming

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Speaker 1: back on. David. So, what are the numbers showing. You're

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Speaker 1: such a numbers guy, you know all the data. What

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Speaker 1: are the numbers showing David's wire on whether or not

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Speaker 1: social distancing is working? Well, it's actually we Bloomberg for

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Speaker 1: the past sever of weeks has really started to build

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Speaker 1: a very good set of data in conjunction with JOHNS

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Speaker 1: Hopkins UH to really track UH each and every country

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Speaker 1: and even all the way down to the state level

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Speaker 1: in the US. And we've turned those numbers into a

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Speaker 1: tracker that we're going to be putting out every day,

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Speaker 1: um starting with comparing United States with the major europe

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Speaker 1: Pean countries. And trying to figure out you know, it's

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Speaker 1: really the tracker is to identify when when the peak,

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Speaker 1: you know, to start visualizing when the people start happening UM.

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Speaker 1: And you know, right now Europe looks a little bit better.

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Speaker 1: In the United States is just resistant UH to slowing

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Speaker 1: at this point, although I would say Europe is being

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Speaker 1: driven a little bit by Italy, which is UH is

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Speaker 1: definitely showing signs of peaking, and we're looking at other

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Speaker 1: countries to see if if they'll off set the peak

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Speaker 1: in in UH in Italy. Just before we had to

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Speaker 1: stick around for us, by the way, but before we

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Speaker 1: had to break, I want to ask you so for

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Speaker 1: several states, you know, I'm thinking of Arizona for example.

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Speaker 1: We've got thirty seconds left. If they haven't issued these

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Speaker 1: social distancing measures, you want to do it before it

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Speaker 1: gets bad. Correct, Absolutely, New York's tasting point on that, Yeah, precisely.

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Speaker 1: All right, stick around David's wire. We're gonna talk much

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Speaker 1: more coming up next again, we're on standby for the

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Speaker 1: President's US briefing. Much more with David Wire. He's crunching

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Speaker 1: the numbers for US. I'm Kevin Sirelli. You're listening to

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg and one you're listening to Bloomberg Sound On with

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Speaker 1: Kevin Sireley on Bloomberg. And one oh five point seven

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Speaker 1: f M h D. Two we are awaiting President Trump

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Speaker 1: and the Daily Coronavirus Task for three thing to start.

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Speaker 1: I'm Kevin Sereli, chief Washington correspondent for Bloomberg Television and

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Speaker 1: for Bloomberg Radio, my colleagues on the line. He's been

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Speaker 1: so generous with us as we've navigated all of us.

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Speaker 1: David Wyer, director of Global Research for all of Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and we're so grateful to have David on the line. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So we were talking earlier about the need for social

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Speaker 1: distancing and whatnot and how it works. There's been so

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Speaker 1: many different every today, we've checked him with people all

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Speaker 1: over the world for how they're country has handled this.

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Speaker 1: Based upon the research David wire which European countries have

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Speaker 1: handled this the best. I think it's probably too early

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Speaker 1: to tell them that. What we can tell is that

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Speaker 1: it hit Italy very hard, and that what we're finding

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Speaker 1: is that, uh, really what you're focused on right now

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Speaker 1: is it'll know is there going to be another country

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Speaker 1: in Europe that is like Italy, and that's what we're

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Speaker 1: watching very very closely. Do you think that there will

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Speaker 1: be uh yeah, again, I think it's too early to tell.

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Speaker 1: That's why we have this tracker. We're putting it together

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Speaker 1: and we're watching every single day the rate of growth

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Speaker 1: and hoping that there's a deceleration. You know, there's some

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Speaker 1: signs that you know, Germany is is not growing as

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Speaker 1: fast as uh, you know, Italy would have at this stage,

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Speaker 1: you know, a couple of weeks ago. That's encouraging. France

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Speaker 1: is more mixed, the UK is a more early stage

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Speaker 1: right now. And therefore with the UK um you know,

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Speaker 1: we just got to hope that it doesn't keep growing

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Speaker 1: the rate it's growing right now in the last couple

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Speaker 1: of days, even though they're there are probably a couple

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Speaker 1: of weeks behind, and so as that happens, the President

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Speaker 1: has been touting do coronavirus tests and quick tests that

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Speaker 1: are more quick two minutes, under, two minutes, under five minutes.

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Speaker 1: Is that going to Is that beneficial? Because one of

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Speaker 1: the questions that I get from just my friends is well,

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Speaker 1: if you're cured from the coronavirus or after the two

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Speaker 1: week quarantine, can you still be reinfected. And so there's

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Speaker 1: exact opinions on that. And so because there's so many

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Speaker 1: conflicting opinions, I'm wondering for someone like you who is

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Speaker 1: just you know, relies on scientific data, that's got to

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Speaker 1: make your job that much harder. Well, what we've got

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Speaker 1: to look at is probably the most important and most

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Speaker 1: accurate numbers of the death It's going to be harder

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Speaker 1: to you know, yeah, you know, it's gonna be harder

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Speaker 1: to have the death rates, uh, the actual number of

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Speaker 1: deaths wrong. So we can track that, but that is

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Speaker 1: obviously a lagging indicator to the new cases. Unfortunately, new

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Speaker 1: cases we don't really know. You know. Hopefully those new

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Speaker 1: cases are more accurate because they're probably gonna be the

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Speaker 1: most at least give us an indication of the more

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Speaker 1: the more severe cases. So in the last week or so,

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Speaker 1: as there's been more active testing in the US, I

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Speaker 1: think we have a better sense, but we clearly don't know,

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Speaker 1: you know, the magnitude of how many people have actually

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Speaker 1: gotten this disease. And ultimately where that probably has an

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Speaker 1: impact is we all know that the mortality rate, you know,

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Speaker 1: which is why we perceived to be two percent probably overstated.

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Speaker 1: And why do you think that is? Just because not

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Speaker 1: everybody has been tested. So you know, if you have

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Speaker 1: a hundred and fifty thousands, hundred sixty hundred seventy thousand

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Speaker 1: cases in that country like the US now over two

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Speaker 1: hundred thousand, you know the real number. We just don't know.

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Speaker 1: It could be twice that, and therefore the denominator is

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Speaker 1: so much higher. That means the actual mortality rate is

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Speaker 1: much much lower. But don't take too much comfort in that,

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Speaker 1: because the higher the number of people that have gotten,

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Speaker 1: the more carriers there are out there spreading the disease,