WEBVTT - Surveillance: Omicron Risks & Recovery Hopes

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along

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<v Speaker 1>with Jonathan Ferroll and Lisa Brownwitz Jay Leye. We bring

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<v Speaker 1>you insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and

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<v Speaker 1>international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcast, Suncloud, Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>dot com, and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. Michael

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<v Speaker 1>Purvis joins US founder and CEO of tal Back in

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<v Speaker 1>Capital Advisers. Uh. For all we know, he might not

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<v Speaker 1>be wearing pants, but I'm pretty sure he is. Uh. Michael,

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<v Speaker 1>how are you doing? Thanks so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>Happy New Year's Eve Day to you. What do you

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<v Speaker 1>make of this? I mean, it's been an incredible year

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<v Speaker 1>for people. Long equities up like twenty eight percent, and

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<v Speaker 1>the third year in a row of big double digit gains?

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<v Speaker 1>Can this continue? I actually thinking, Ken, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>there's sort of an instinctive natural suspicion. But hey, he

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<v Speaker 1>can't get you know, four double digit years in the

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<v Speaker 1>SMP five hundred in a row. That's just not supposed

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<v Speaker 1>to happen. Um. And I think, while I appreciate that

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<v Speaker 1>sort of um instinctive concern, I actually, you know, my

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<v Speaker 1>price target for next year is hundred, which is up

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<v Speaker 1>another from where we are right now. Uh there, And

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's it's it's people have to you know, look, Matt,

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<v Speaker 1>this year, I was you know, I was among the

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<v Speaker 1>highest for the year and for this year at fifty

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<v Speaker 1>from twelve months ago when I upgraded that to forty

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<v Speaker 1>eight hundred in July, and I, you know, here we

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<v Speaker 1>are almost forty eight hundred. I think we take through

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<v Speaker 1>it yesterday. But look the the arithmetic of the probabilities

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<v Speaker 1>for me spell it a pretty obvious way, the ten

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<v Speaker 1>years kind of range bam. That reinforces a pretty healthy

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<v Speaker 1>equity risk premium. And you're looking at nominal GDP next

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<v Speaker 1>year in the United States of seven to eight percent.

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<v Speaker 1>That's just based on Bloomberg insensus forecasts there um and

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<v Speaker 1>and potentially some rest of work, you know, international GDP

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<v Speaker 1>that will uh actually recover if and when the virus

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<v Speaker 1>continues to fade um, that will reinforce the international dimension

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<v Speaker 1>of SMP earning. So you know, why would you why why?

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<v Speaker 1>I guess my my argument is why should twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>be any different from two thousand twenty one. Um, sure,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not going to be as exciting in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>the explosion of earnings growth with faith and base effects.

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<v Speaker 1>But the nominal GDP picture is very strong. You've got

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<v Speaker 1>big tech anchoring forty for some of the index with

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<v Speaker 1>uh you know, really still what is your what, by

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<v Speaker 1>the way, what is your earnings expectation? Michael? Next year?

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<v Speaker 1>Uh it's it's uh two hundred in sixty. I'm sorry

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<v Speaker 1>that that's twenty three two hunt for next year two

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and forty. Well, let's go from yeah, still strong. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>let's go from the earnings with fundamentals to the volatility picture.

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<v Speaker 1>Because we got as high as a thirty seven handle

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<v Speaker 1>on the VIX this year, we're now hovering about an

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<v Speaker 1>eighteen handle. January is a seasonally volatile session or seasonally

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<v Speaker 1>voltil month. I should say, what are you expecting on

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<v Speaker 1>that front? Well, uh, you know, look, the VIX this

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<v Speaker 1>entire year has been very robust. It's been um you know.

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<v Speaker 1>If you look at credit high yield credit spreads, for example,

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<v Speaker 1>they plummeted after the uh you know, the initial shock

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<v Speaker 1>of COVID in the spring of two thousand twenty, and

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<v Speaker 1>they kind of what I argued is that they've kind

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<v Speaker 1>of led the VIX down the vix. You know, you

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<v Speaker 1>can measure it on the spread of applied volatility to

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<v Speaker 1>realize volatility, or pitfall skew or tail skew and all

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<v Speaker 1>those different metrics within the SNP options universe, and they've

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<v Speaker 1>all been saying, uh, sort of reflecting tension and some anxiety,

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<v Speaker 1>right And and that's one of the reasons why the

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<v Speaker 1>dips throughout this year have been five to six percent

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<v Speaker 1>and not fift percent, right. It's the markets have been

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<v Speaker 1>pretty well ensured coming into this and that's a very

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<v Speaker 1>healthy factor and one of the reasons why I've been

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<v Speaker 1>very bullish this year and why I continue to be

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<v Speaker 1>bullish next year, because it seems like the bigs here,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, it's just going to be uh, it refuses

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<v Speaker 1>to like just drop down to that level. I don't

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<v Speaker 1>think we've had a close below fifteen this entire year,

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<v Speaker 1>despite a relentless march higher, right um there, So that

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<v Speaker 1>that is very healthy for the SMP five hundred. I've been,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, opportunistically putting on some short volatility trades, but

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<v Speaker 1>that's you know, um, you know, you have to sort

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<v Speaker 1>of pick your spots there. I think the like you

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<v Speaker 1>people shouldn't expect Yeah close, Yes, I did, I did. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>But you know that trade was you know, it made money,

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<v Speaker 1>but it wasn't a you know, like a fantastic like

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<v Speaker 1>you know, two thousand seventeen style short politility trade right.

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<v Speaker 1>Um there. But again, that's that's one of the reasons

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<v Speaker 1>why the tension within the Vicks world is one of

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<v Speaker 1>the reasons why the SMP keeps sort of relentlessly edging higher. Here.

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<v Speaker 1>Um all right, Michael, I gotta I gotta cut you off.

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<v Speaker 1>I can hear the Cantabrian water dog in the background barking.

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<v Speaker 1>I think your cows have gotten out. Michael Purvis coming

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<v Speaker 1>to us. They're from the Sturious Spain actually, one of

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<v Speaker 1>my favorite places in the entire world. Absolutely love um

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<v Speaker 1>the area there in Asturias, Spain. And uh, I hope

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<v Speaker 1>you have a great New Year's Eve and wish the

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<v Speaker 1>best for you and the whole family. Thanks so much

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<v Speaker 1>for joining us, Michael Purvis. There from tal Back in Capital,

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<v Speaker 1>Christina Hooper joins US global market strategists UM right now

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<v Speaker 1>at invest Go and Christina, you know, we have been

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<v Speaker 1>talking to so many investors who have told us they

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<v Speaker 1>see uh lesser returns in then we've become used to

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<v Speaker 1>over the past three years. Do you agree? I agree,

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<v Speaker 1>But let me give you this caveat. I think we're

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<v Speaker 1>going to see lesser returns when it comes to developed markets,

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<v Speaker 1>but I think could be a great year for emerging markets,

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<v Speaker 1>and that's a year for outperformance for em in particular China,

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<v Speaker 1>which has had a disappointing Alright, So China is one

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<v Speaker 1>area that we're watching incredibly closely, not just because of

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<v Speaker 1>the blew up in the property market, but also because

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<v Speaker 1>they seem set on increasing stimulus and making it really focused.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you expect that to bring decent games, both for

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<v Speaker 1>China and for the global economy. I do. I do.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it's going to be a combination of of

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<v Speaker 1>monetary and fiscal stimulus that helps the Chinese economy re

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<v Speaker 1>accelerate in two and I think we're likely to see

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<v Speaker 1>uh fewer regulations. Right, we saw a lot of regulatory

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<v Speaker 1>actions directed at reform in I think we're going to

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<v Speaker 1>see less of that in two and that should be

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<v Speaker 1>another positive catalyst for China equities um. But for developed markets,

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<v Speaker 1>I think what we're going to see is more of

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<v Speaker 1>a convergence of asset classes that typically is the case

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<v Speaker 1>when we enter a slow down phase of the economic cycle. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>it's nothing to be scared of. But I do think

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to see more muted stock market returns. Well.

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<v Speaker 1>In terms of China, we saw the Golden Dragon China Index,

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<v Speaker 1>which of course is the a d R is listed

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<v Speaker 1>in the US, return nine point four percent yesterday, their

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<v Speaker 1>biggest gain since two thousand eight. Of course, it's still

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<v Speaker 1>very far off the highs. It's China tech a place

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<v Speaker 1>that interests you. Oh absolutely, UM. Now, we certainly have

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<v Speaker 1>to recognize that China has some long term policy goals

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<v Speaker 1>that are part of its common Prosperity vision. UM. So

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<v Speaker 1>we have to recognize that there could still be more

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<v Speaker 1>regulation to come in. But I think it's pretty understandable

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<v Speaker 1>the areas they're focusing on, like, for example, data security. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>But having said all that, there is a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>opportunity for Chinese technology stocks. I do think we need

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<v Speaker 1>to be more patient with that. This may not be

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<v Speaker 1>a phenomenon, it may be something that as is a

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<v Speaker 1>good story for longer term China tech holders. Christina, let's

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<v Speaker 1>talk about a second for the omicon variant, because we

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<v Speaker 1>have to to hit about the impact. Now, the consensus

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<v Speaker 1>on Wall Street is that this isn't going to have

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<v Speaker 1>quite the same impact on, say, operations on consumer spending

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<v Speaker 1>that the original strain of the virus did back in

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<v Speaker 1>the spring of But I'm curious how much of gains

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<v Speaker 1>were based on the fact that we are going to

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<v Speaker 1>have this return to office, that we are going to

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<v Speaker 1>have this kind of much bigger progress in vaccines. What

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<v Speaker 1>is your take on that. How much of those gains

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<v Speaker 1>might we have to pair back in two as we

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<v Speaker 1>kind of face reality. Well, I don't think we're going

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<v Speaker 1>to see a big pairing bag of gains because the

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<v Speaker 1>omicron variant represents UH negative outcomes in the shorter run,

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<v Speaker 1>but could actually be a positive in the longer run UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And by that I mean that it is incredibly contagious

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<v Speaker 1>and the numbers we're seeing are are just like nothing

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<v Speaker 1>we've seen with any other variant. Having said that, the

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<v Speaker 1>silver lining is that it is UM. It does seem

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<v Speaker 1>to be far more mild, and it moves through populations

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<v Speaker 1>rather quickly, So we can take South Africa as an example.

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<v Speaker 1>UM cases peaked on December sixteen. UM now we're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>cases at less than half of what they were then,

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<v Speaker 1>So this is a really fast move through South Africa

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<v Speaker 1>already burning out. So if we can use that as

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<v Speaker 1>an example, and that really does happen with other countries

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<v Speaker 1>and it seems to be the case um from from

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<v Speaker 1>early indications in some other areas, UM, then that suggests

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<v Speaker 1>that it will move through the population rather quickly, create

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<v Speaker 1>some real issues in the shorter run, right in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of supply chain disruptions UM, exacerbating inflation, but then could

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<v Speaker 1>move through quickly and have that residual effect of having

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<v Speaker 1>immunized populations far more rapidly than say any vaccination program UM.

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<v Speaker 1>So it could be a positive again, UM if it

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<v Speaker 1>remains as mild as it seems to be. Are you

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<v Speaker 1>worried about the FED? In I know that the market

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<v Speaker 1>is expecting three rate hikes UM and March is reportedly

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<v Speaker 1>according to Governor Waller alive meeting. But if they don't

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<v Speaker 1>start until later, they're gonna squeeze them in pretty tight. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>So I'm not worried about the FED. And certainly we

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<v Speaker 1>always want to be following inflation and inflation expectations, and

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<v Speaker 1>that is a wild card because there is an element

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<v Speaker 1>of behavioral economics to all of this UM. But having

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<v Speaker 1>said that, I do believe that the fed UM will

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<v Speaker 1>have only three rate hikes in two or less UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and the market expects three rate hikes, so I think

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<v Speaker 1>that creates a relatively supportive environment for risk assets. Certainly,

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to see some volatility UM. There is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be some uncertainty along the way UM with regard

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<v Speaker 1>to monetary policy in the United States, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately we won't see the fed UM get get nervous

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<v Speaker 1>and overreact to any kind of high inflation print. All right, Christina,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks very much pleasure having on the program, and we

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<v Speaker 1>wish you and your family a happy and healthy New

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<v Speaker 1>Year's Eve. Christina Hooper there of Investo giving us her

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<v Speaker 1>outlook for let's talk about geopolitics right now. Daniel tennebound

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<v Speaker 1>partner and America's anti financial crime leader at Oliver Wyman,

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<v Speaker 1>joins us to discuss the not just the phone call

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<v Speaker 1>that President Biden had with President Putin yesterday, but also

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<v Speaker 1>the relationship and the issues that Russia has right now

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<v Speaker 1>with the West as it amasses troops on the border

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<v Speaker 1>of Ukraine. Reportedly, Dan, thanks so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 1>How do you think the call went to kick it off.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean on New Year's I'm feeling a bit light.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean it was a perfect call for both sides. UM. Realistically,

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<v Speaker 1>I think both Putin and Biden got their messages in

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<v Speaker 1>where both sides can declare victory. It was largely reiterating

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<v Speaker 1>prior points that both sides made in terms of Russian

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<v Speaker 1>demands of what it was looking for from an assurance

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<v Speaker 1>standpoint for security, what Biden was looking to put out

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<v Speaker 1>there in the event that Russia escalated issues, which were

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<v Speaker 1>largely further sanctions in the event of a further escalation

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<v Speaker 1>into Crimea or into Ukraine. So I think realistically both

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<v Speaker 1>sides were able to walk away with a win, and

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<v Speaker 1>it really set the tone nicely for the talks that

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<v Speaker 1>will commence on January ten, with kind of the working

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<v Speaker 1>level within both governments to try and see how they

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<v Speaker 1>can deescalate the situation. But I mean, as a reminder,

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<v Speaker 1>this is largely a crisis of Putin's creation. There was

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<v Speaker 1>no imminent security threat against Russia. UM. This was a

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<v Speaker 1>pre emptive move to move troops into the Dambas and

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<v Speaker 1>begin to threaten UM, begin to threaten the Ukrainian sovereignty, Daneen,

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<v Speaker 1>I could exchange a dollar and get thirty six rubles

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<v Speaker 1>in return. Now if I exchange a dollar, I get

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<v Speaker 1>get about seventy five rubles. Really, since that crimea annexation

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<v Speaker 1>in that really spurred a lot of those sanctions from

0:13:42.600 --> 0:13:45.040
<v Speaker 1>the United States. In addition to that big drop in

0:13:45.120 --> 0:13:48.239
<v Speaker 1>oil prices we saw then, the ruble has never recovered.

0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:50.800
<v Speaker 1>Oil prices did, but the Russian currency didn't, and a

0:13:50.800 --> 0:13:52.800
<v Speaker 1>lot of that is thanks to sanctions. Just how much

0:13:52.840 --> 0:13:56.000
<v Speaker 1>further an impact can sanctions have on Russia right now?

0:13:56.840 --> 0:14:00.400
<v Speaker 1>So the sanctions that were imposed in ten were very targeted.

0:14:00.440 --> 0:14:03.479
<v Speaker 1>They were focused on certain aspects of the financial services,

0:14:03.800 --> 0:14:07.280
<v Speaker 1>energy and defense sectors, but there is more that could

0:14:07.320 --> 0:14:09.680
<v Speaker 1>be done. The threats that have been levied were a

0:14:09.679 --> 0:14:14.240
<v Speaker 1>focus on potentially cutting Russian financial institutions off from global

0:14:14.240 --> 0:14:19.440
<v Speaker 1>payment systems access, further sanctions to more significant oligarchs, and

0:14:19.560 --> 0:14:22.400
<v Speaker 1>escalation of what President Trump did in eighteen with a

0:14:22.480 --> 0:14:26.200
<v Speaker 1>number of significant oligarcs where their assets were frozen. Um

0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:29.400
<v Speaker 1>there are still more sanctions that could be imposed, even

0:14:29.400 --> 0:14:33.600
<v Speaker 1>on nord Stream too, in potentially cutting off the usage

0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:36.560
<v Speaker 1>in Europe of the nord Stream to pipeline, which would

0:14:36.560 --> 0:14:39.960
<v Speaker 1>have an adverse impact on the Russian economy. So there

0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.000
<v Speaker 1>is still more that can be done. The sanctions were

0:14:43.120 --> 0:14:46.360
<v Speaker 1>very surgical in nature. What's being threatened now is much

0:14:46.400 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 1>more of a broadsword approach. What wouldn't wouldn't cutting off

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 1>nord Stream to be a problem for Germany as well?

0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.680
<v Speaker 1>I mean don't I mean clearly they rely on Russian

0:14:55.760 --> 0:14:58.360
<v Speaker 1>energy supplies and isn't that a faster, cheaper way for

0:14:58.360 --> 0:15:01.760
<v Speaker 1>them to get in? It is, and especially coming into

0:15:01.760 --> 0:15:04.000
<v Speaker 1>the colder winter months, that's not really the best time

0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:06.720
<v Speaker 1>of year to start talking about cutting off any sort

0:15:06.720 --> 0:15:10.920
<v Speaker 1>of access the cheaper fuel. It is still something that

0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:14.320
<v Speaker 1>the US has been pressuring its German and other European allies.

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:18.120
<v Speaker 1>Hard is one of several options and potential sanctions that

0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:21.520
<v Speaker 1>could be imposed, but it is probably one that it's

0:15:21.720 --> 0:15:26.400
<v Speaker 1>been less interesting to the Biden administration to push forward,

0:15:26.400 --> 0:15:29.400
<v Speaker 1>and something we've seen from Congress in the US where

0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:32.640
<v Speaker 1>both the Republicans and Democrats have been pushing for more

0:15:32.680 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 1>action on nord Stream too, even though it's completed um

0:15:36.000 --> 0:15:38.080
<v Speaker 1>and this is picking up off of an issue that

0:15:38.200 --> 0:15:42.560
<v Speaker 1>wasn't dealt with properly on the Trump administration side. Dan.

0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:46.120
<v Speaker 1>Beyond sanctions, another stick that US officials have waived or

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.840
<v Speaker 1>is the possibility of the augmentation of NATO forces should

0:15:49.840 --> 0:15:53.560
<v Speaker 1>diplomacy not work. What effect would that have? Considering uh

0:15:53.840 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 1>Putin's narrative has been that NATO continues to move east.

0:15:58.920 --> 0:16:02.080
<v Speaker 1>I think there's no imminent threat as we understand it,

0:16:02.120 --> 0:16:07.520
<v Speaker 1>of further deployment of NATO forces into Ukraine unless there

0:16:07.680 --> 0:16:12.000
<v Speaker 1>is certain actions on the part of the Russians to escalate.

0:16:12.640 --> 0:16:16.760
<v Speaker 1>I think there's certainly talk of using troops to bed

0:16:16.800 --> 0:16:20.240
<v Speaker 1>down any sort of Russian escalation, any sort of Russian

0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.280
<v Speaker 1>incursion into Ukraine, but that certainly seems to be a

0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:26.960
<v Speaker 1>last measure. That being said, you know, we have certainly

0:16:27.000 --> 0:16:30.040
<v Speaker 1>seen sanctions have impact of the Russian economy, but they

0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:34.520
<v Speaker 1>certainly not necessarily scared off President Putin. President Putin seems

0:16:34.560 --> 0:16:37.640
<v Speaker 1>to understand force above all else. Dan, great to get

0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:40.440
<v Speaker 1>some time with you. Thanks so much for joining us um.

0:16:40.760 --> 0:16:43.920
<v Speaker 1>I think we really gain a lot from your inside

0:16:44.000 --> 0:16:47.640
<v Speaker 1>Daniel tennebown there of Oliver Wyman talking to us about

0:16:48.080 --> 0:16:51.080
<v Speaker 1>US Russian relations, and we wish you a happy and

0:16:51.160 --> 0:17:01.160
<v Speaker 1>healthy new year as well. Let's get back to the virus,

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.240
<v Speaker 1>because the numbers that we have seen are just eye popping.

0:17:04.280 --> 0:17:07.600
<v Speaker 1>As I said, more than two million confirmed new cases

0:17:07.640 --> 0:17:10.320
<v Speaker 1>in one day globally yesterday it's the fourth day in

0:17:10.359 --> 0:17:13.200
<v Speaker 1>a row of more than a million. Mercedes Carnathon joins,

0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:18.120
<v Speaker 1>US Vice chair at the Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine,

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:22.480
<v Speaker 1>Department of Preventative Medicine. And to some extent, this is

0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:28.640
<v Speaker 1>prevented prevent to bowl, uh, Mercedes, Um, But we see

0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:30.760
<v Speaker 1>the numbers just popping up. Is there any way to

0:17:30.800 --> 0:17:34.159
<v Speaker 1>turn this around now? Or does everybody eventually get the

0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:38.199
<v Speaker 1>omicron variant? You know, it's a really scary situation, and

0:17:38.280 --> 0:17:40.840
<v Speaker 1>thank you for having me to talk about it. All

0:17:40.880 --> 0:17:45.560
<v Speaker 1>along be known that this particular variant was highly contagious

0:17:45.600 --> 0:17:49.280
<v Speaker 1>and was infecting people even before they knew they had

0:17:49.320 --> 0:17:54.000
<v Speaker 1>significant symptoms. And then with it being slightly less virulent

0:17:54.480 --> 0:17:58.240
<v Speaker 1>and a large proportion of our population being vaccinated, the

0:17:58.359 --> 0:18:02.560
<v Speaker 1>symptoms can be so subtle that it's really spreading. I mean,

0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.879
<v Speaker 1>I hate to I hate to say we throw in

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.600
<v Speaker 1>the towel and accept that everyone gets it. That's not

0:18:08.680 --> 0:18:10.640
<v Speaker 1>what we want to do because we still don't know

0:18:10.680 --> 0:18:13.200
<v Speaker 1>what the long term impacts will be I think we've

0:18:13.240 --> 0:18:15.960
<v Speaker 1>got to double down on the masking. We've got to

0:18:16.119 --> 0:18:23.440
<v Speaker 1>really emphasize and encourage vaccinations. Mercedes, when schools return next week,

0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:26.040
<v Speaker 1>what should they be doing, What measures should they be

0:18:26.160 --> 0:18:29.480
<v Speaker 1>taking if they are in person to prevent a spread

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:34.080
<v Speaker 1>of a variant which has been spreading exponentially. You know,

0:18:34.240 --> 0:18:36.920
<v Speaker 1>that's a real concern. I've got young children who are

0:18:36.920 --> 0:18:39.800
<v Speaker 1>heading back to school. I feel very strongly that they

0:18:39.800 --> 0:18:43.240
<v Speaker 1>are safer in school than they are on play dates

0:18:43.280 --> 0:18:46.440
<v Speaker 1>that are happening in a much more casual setting and

0:18:46.480 --> 0:18:50.760
<v Speaker 1>even some general public places that you might take them

0:18:50.760 --> 0:18:53.440
<v Speaker 1>to have some fun. So I think returning to school

0:18:53.560 --> 0:18:56.919
<v Speaker 1>must be a priority. I think that a central strategy

0:18:56.960 --> 0:18:59.920
<v Speaker 1>to keeping children safe in school is going to be testing.

0:19:00.320 --> 0:19:03.280
<v Speaker 1>It's going to be surveillance testing so that you can

0:19:03.280 --> 0:19:06.760
<v Speaker 1>get a picture of the background rates of the virus

0:19:06.840 --> 0:19:10.440
<v Speaker 1>within the community and population of the school. And it's

0:19:10.440 --> 0:19:13.760
<v Speaker 1>going to be testing symptomatic and asymptomatic people so that

0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:17.040
<v Speaker 1>we can isolate them quickly. Let's talk about the isolation

0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:18.840
<v Speaker 1>period for a second. We just heard from the CDC

0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:22.120
<v Speaker 1>very recently that now if you are asymptomatic, you only

0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:24.800
<v Speaker 1>have to quarantine for five days. It's a ruling that

0:19:24.840 --> 0:19:27.480
<v Speaker 1>has had some industries, the airline industries. What I'm thinking of,

0:19:27.520 --> 0:19:29.840
<v Speaker 1>really up in arms about it. What are your thoughts

0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:33.560
<v Speaker 1>about simply the safety and the effectiveness of that strategy.

0:19:34.040 --> 0:19:37.119
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think that when when the CDC and

0:19:37.200 --> 0:19:42.240
<v Speaker 1>other organizations have to select a strategy that involves individual behavior,

0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:44.919
<v Speaker 1>there are always trade offs, and it can always feel

0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:49.000
<v Speaker 1>as though it's a choice between two least bad options.

0:19:49.560 --> 0:19:54.960
<v Speaker 1>The reality is that the recommendation is science driven. We

0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:59.320
<v Speaker 1>have seen throughout that the infectious period can be relatively short,

0:19:59.480 --> 0:20:04.160
<v Speaker 1>particular a early in individuals who are vaccinated. What becomes

0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:08.520
<v Speaker 1>more challenging is the unvaccinated and really needing to have

0:20:08.600 --> 0:20:12.000
<v Speaker 1>separate recommendations, and the CDC chose not to do that

0:20:12.280 --> 0:20:17.280
<v Speaker 1>and to make the single recommendation. Certainly upon release from isolation,

0:20:17.800 --> 0:20:22.400
<v Speaker 1>masking should still be used in order to protect other individuals.

0:20:24.040 --> 0:20:26.199
<v Speaker 1>All right, Mercedes, thanks so much for joining us. Really

0:20:26.240 --> 0:20:30.920
<v Speaker 1>appreciate your time on this would be should be holiday

0:20:30.920 --> 0:20:34.240
<v Speaker 1>on this New Year's Eve Day. Mercedes Carnathon there of

0:20:34.359 --> 0:20:39.280
<v Speaker 1>Northwestern University joining us to talk about the seriousness of

0:20:39.680 --> 0:20:43.800
<v Speaker 1>UH the COVID challenge that we still faced. This is

0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:47.840
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:51.760
<v Speaker 1>weekdays from seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio

0:20:51.960 --> 0:20:55.600
<v Speaker 1>and on Bloomberg Television each day from six to nine

0:20:55.640 --> 0:20:59.960
<v Speaker 1>am for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

0:21:00.200 --> 0:21:05.199
<v Speaker 1>and international relations. And subscribe to the Surveillance podcast on

0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:09.119
<v Speaker 1>Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on

0:21:09.240 --> 0:21:13.359
<v Speaker 1>the terminal. I'm Tom keene In. This is Bloomberg