1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:03,720
Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game? Do us proud

2
00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:05,400
Speaker 1: read a lot?

3
00:00:06,160 --> 00:00:07,640
Speaker 2: They're a running a game.

4
00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:14,960
Speaker 1: So smoothe so sweet, splendid.

5
00:00:14,520 --> 00:00:17,440
Speaker 2: Sisting, just glorious execution.

6
00:00:18,200 --> 00:00:21,120
Speaker 1: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

7
00:00:21,239 --> 00:00:22,480
Speaker 1: thousand percent of the time.

8
00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:24,200
Speaker 2: How shot with that?

9
00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,200
Speaker 3: Shop with mind bog buddy, And that's why you.

10
00:00:27,240 --> 00:00:31,120
Speaker 2: See your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the most

11
00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:32,240
Speaker 2: dangerous amount of the planet.

12
00:00:32,280 --> 00:00:33,120
Speaker 1: Nobody picts them.

13
00:00:36,840 --> 00:00:38,720
Speaker 3: Up. I'm trying.

14
00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,360
Speaker 1: Again the one.

15
00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:47,000
Speaker 2: It's left to one of the wide eyed drill pibus

16
00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,000
Speaker 2: how old earth pick that happens?

17
00:00:50,200 --> 00:00:52,680
Speaker 3: Hello everybody, Welcome back to Wonderful of this soccer betting

18
00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:55,360
Speaker 3: podcast from the Action Network, presented to you by our

19
00:00:55,440 --> 00:00:58,280
Speaker 3: wonderful sponsors BET three sixty five. My name is Michael

20
00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:00,960
Speaker 3: le Buff and joining me is Oh we are BJ

21
00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:04,640
Speaker 3: Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo, and together the three of us

22
00:01:05,160 --> 00:01:08,640
Speaker 3: will break down the action across the European soccer landscape

23
00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,119
Speaker 3: this weekend. Go through all ten Premier League matches, give

24
00:01:11,160 --> 00:01:14,320
Speaker 3: out our favorite bets there, touch on the Bundesliga La

25
00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:17,840
Speaker 3: Liga Syria A league, UH, hand out a three leg

26
00:01:17,880 --> 00:01:20,880
Speaker 3: money line parlay, and then give our favorite bets in

27
00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:24,600
Speaker 3: the Premier League for the weekend before getting out of here,

28
00:01:24,840 --> 00:01:27,560
Speaker 3: and there is only one place to start this weekend

29
00:01:27,920 --> 00:01:30,880
Speaker 3: Forrest and Bourne. Myth. I'm just kidding the Merseyside Darby

30
00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:34,400
Speaker 3: at Goodison Park, Everdon seven to one underdogs at home

31
00:01:34,440 --> 00:01:37,039
Speaker 3: taking on Liverpool minus two seventy five. The draw here

32
00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:40,160
Speaker 3: is four to one. I am a for anyone new here.

33
00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,760
Speaker 3: I'm a diehard Everdon tragic. So I'm going to actually

34
00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,200
Speaker 3: see the floor to you bj First, you were on

35
00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:49,360
Speaker 3: Liverpool this past week, but has your tune changed a

36
00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:50,360
Speaker 3: little bit around the Reds?

37
00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:53,160
Speaker 1: I mean a little bit. This this match is just weird,

38
00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:55,400
Speaker 1: Like I actually am showing a little bit of value

39
00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:58,120
Speaker 1: on Liverpool. But that doesn't take into the fact that

40
00:01:58,600 --> 00:02:01,280
Speaker 1: Iago is still out, that Liverpool is just going to

41
00:02:01,320 --> 00:02:04,480
Speaker 1: continue to ride with the midfield of James Milner and

42
00:02:04,640 --> 00:02:07,640
Speaker 1: Jordan Henderson, which just isn't really working right now. And

43
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,680
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, Liverpool's probably going to dominate possession in

44
00:02:10,680 --> 00:02:15,280
Speaker 1: this match. They're probably gonna press Everton effectively. Darwin Nunez

45
00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:20,280
Speaker 1: I think will be back for suspension, but Everton I

46
00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:23,160
Speaker 1: really just I mean, they are kind of just turning

47
00:02:23,240 --> 00:02:25,840
Speaker 1: back into what they were under Alfha Benitez, Like they're

48
00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:30,520
Speaker 1: just playing so ultra conservative. You know, when Lampard came in,

49
00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:32,239
Speaker 1: we thought, okay, they're going to get out of the

50
00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:34,359
Speaker 1: four four two, They're going to start to play, you know,

51
00:02:34,400 --> 00:02:38,040
Speaker 1: a three four three or something more imaginative. And when

52
00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:41,680
Speaker 1: they've played these bigger sides, it's just it's just sitting defensively.

53
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:43,480
Speaker 1: They did the same thing against Brentford when they went

54
00:02:43,520 --> 00:02:46,000
Speaker 1: up one nothing against Leeds, they were a little bit

55
00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:48,120
Speaker 1: more aggressive in the second half after it got back

56
00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:49,560
Speaker 1: to one to one, you know, but once they got

57
00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:51,680
Speaker 1: a lead, they just kind of sat back and let

58
00:02:51,760 --> 00:02:54,400
Speaker 1: Leeds basically do what they wanted to. So, you know,

59
00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,600
Speaker 1: these murders side Darby's, they have have gone Liverpool's way

60
00:02:57,639 --> 00:02:58,639
Speaker 1: the last few times.

61
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:00,679
Speaker 3: Decade a decade of it.

62
00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:02,640
Speaker 2: Everton got a win in there.

63
00:03:02,639 --> 00:03:07,320
Speaker 3: They have one win in the Yeah, I'm.

64
00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:07,880
Speaker 1: Trying, and Michael, I'm trying to make a case for Everton,

65
00:03:07,919 --> 00:03:09,880
Speaker 1: like I'm trying to get there and say, you know,

66
00:03:10,400 --> 00:03:12,200
Speaker 1: I want to play Everton or I want to try

67
00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,240
Speaker 1: to play you know, I'm even close playing a ball

68
00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:17,720
Speaker 1: teams to score because I do think that Liverpool has

69
00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,040
Speaker 1: been a little bit vulnerable playing that high line. They've

70
00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:21,760
Speaker 1: given up a little bit too much. They did it

71
00:03:21,760 --> 00:03:25,160
Speaker 1: today against Newcastle. They've done it to teams you know,

72
00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:27,680
Speaker 1: in the past. So I don't know what's making this

73
00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,799
Speaker 1: match projection wise. I'm at Liverpool minus three point thirty.

74
00:03:31,880 --> 00:03:34,760
Speaker 1: I have a total of three point six, so maybe

75
00:03:34,800 --> 00:03:38,160
Speaker 1: potentially who's playing over, But then I taken you know.

76
00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,000
Speaker 1: I mean, Everton hasn't been good defensively. They are over

77
00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:43,920
Speaker 1: one point five xtually allowed in every match except for

78
00:03:43,960 --> 00:03:47,760
Speaker 1: the Nottingham Forest match. So I'm leaning towards that over,

79
00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,120
Speaker 1: but I want to wait and see if that comes

80
00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:52,160
Speaker 1: down a little bit. Maybe get over three out even

81
00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,000
Speaker 1: money or something like that. If I can't get that,

82
00:03:54,040 --> 00:03:56,000
Speaker 1: this one's just going to be a pass for me

83
00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:59,200
Speaker 1: and we'll watch Liverpool go behind and then come back

84
00:03:59,240 --> 00:04:01,160
Speaker 1: and win too one and break your heart, Michael.

85
00:04:01,680 --> 00:04:04,280
Speaker 3: I think the case for Everton is what you touched

86
00:04:04,280 --> 00:04:06,880
Speaker 3: on in the midfield, which is how we've been playing

87
00:04:06,880 --> 00:04:10,320
Speaker 3: against Liverpool's to start the season. Amadu Onana looks a

88
00:04:10,360 --> 00:04:13,360
Speaker 3: real player. Alex Awobe has been really good in the

89
00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,800
Speaker 3: middle of the park for Everton and it does look

90
00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,320
Speaker 3: like they're about to get a Drisa Ghana guy in

91
00:04:18,760 --> 00:04:22,160
Speaker 3: back in to Goodison Park, and a midfield three of Onana,

92
00:04:22,200 --> 00:04:27,159
Speaker 3: a Wobe and Ghana Onana and Ghana and Awobe would

93
00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:31,080
Speaker 3: give Liverpool trouble. I think in the middle of the field,

94
00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:34,960
Speaker 3: and the center back pairing of James Tarkowski and Connor

95
00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,960
Speaker 3: Cody is good enough that they should be able to

96
00:04:38,040 --> 00:04:41,279
Speaker 3: at least you know, there's the type of players that

97
00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:44,000
Speaker 3: are really good in these kind of situations where it's

98
00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,640
Speaker 3: going to be a big blue bus park behind, you know,

99
00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:49,159
Speaker 3: the ten guys back, and who would you rather have

100
00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:51,800
Speaker 3: anchoring that big blue buss than Connor Cody and James

101
00:04:51,880 --> 00:04:54,880
Speaker 3: Tarkowski in a game where you're gonna see like eighty

102
00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:58,279
Speaker 3: percent possession. And then I think Anthony Gordon and Jamari

103
00:04:58,320 --> 00:05:02,200
Speaker 3: Gray can give some issue to Trent Alexander Arnold going

104
00:05:02,480 --> 00:05:04,719
Speaker 3: back in that Liverpool defense has look leaky, So I

105
00:05:04,720 --> 00:05:06,320
Speaker 3: do think the number is good enough to have a

106
00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:08,680
Speaker 3: dabble on Everton, So That's where I'm gonna be going.

107
00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:11,480
Speaker 3: I do think the team is getting better. They're starting

108
00:05:11,520 --> 00:05:14,479
Speaker 3: to get the bodies in that they need to basically

109
00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,000
Speaker 3: push the bodies that they don't need out of the lineup,

110
00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:20,280
Speaker 3: and hey, they'll get to play with an actual striker

111
00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:23,279
Speaker 3: for the first time in this match after they didn't

112
00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:26,279
Speaker 3: get Neil mal Pie registered in time because of a

113
00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:30,000
Speaker 3: bank holiday for some weird reason. Anthony, what are your

114
00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:31,640
Speaker 3: thoughts here Merseyside Darby?

115
00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:33,800
Speaker 2: My first thought is England has way too many bank holidays.

116
00:05:33,839 --> 00:05:36,479
Speaker 2: I feel like that happens every other week. But my

117
00:05:36,560 --> 00:05:38,880
Speaker 2: second thought is that I would like to bet Jurgen

118
00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:42,360
Speaker 2: Klopp complaining about time wasting over a half first half

119
00:05:42,760 --> 00:05:45,599
Speaker 2: because you already know coming into this game Everton's going

120
00:05:45,640 --> 00:05:48,480
Speaker 2: to be time wasting from the first minute and they're

121
00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:50,919
Speaker 2: going to be parking the bus. Like you mentioned. The

122
00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:53,279
Speaker 2: one thing that scares me about backing Everton at home

123
00:05:53,320 --> 00:05:54,640
Speaker 2: plus one and a half, which is what I would

124
00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,080
Speaker 2: bet if I had to bet it, is that Darwin

125
00:05:57,160 --> 00:05:59,560
Speaker 2: Nuniez is back and he's going to probably start up

126
00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,440
Speaker 2: top and look as good as Bobby. For me, no

127
00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:03,560
Speaker 2: has been. I mean I called him watched two weeks

128
00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:05,520
Speaker 2: ago and he's got three goals and three assists since

129
00:06:05,560 --> 00:06:08,599
Speaker 2: I said he's watched. Despite that, I mean, this team

130
00:06:08,640 --> 00:06:12,240
Speaker 2: looked just miles miles better and It's a small sample,

131
00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:15,240
Speaker 2: but the ninety minutes that he played against Fulham and

132
00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:17,479
Speaker 2: then the first sixty against Palace they didn't score, but

133
00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:22,240
Speaker 2: the attack looked way way better. And I'm partially wondering

134
00:06:22,800 --> 00:06:26,720
Speaker 2: if having a true striker will open up more space

135
00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:29,159
Speaker 2: for Sala to get going, because he's had a little

136
00:06:29,200 --> 00:06:30,680
Speaker 2: bit of a slow start to the season in terms

137
00:06:30,720 --> 00:06:33,640
Speaker 2: of finishing as well, but also just chance creation. I think,

138
00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,400
Speaker 2: you know, I don't think Liverpool's gonna have a ton

139
00:06:36,440 --> 00:06:39,360
Speaker 2: of problems getting through Everton's midfield, and I do think

140
00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:41,520
Speaker 2: once they get down toward the byeline, I think having

141
00:06:41,520 --> 00:06:43,719
Speaker 2: someone like a Nunez who can kind of bully in

142
00:06:43,720 --> 00:06:46,240
Speaker 2: the middle and get on the end of chances. Not

143
00:06:46,600 --> 00:06:49,520
Speaker 2: that he's Holland, but Holland hask Colin liked in a way.

144
00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,640
Speaker 2: I think that really does make a big difference for Liverpool,

145
00:06:52,680 --> 00:06:55,560
Speaker 2: and that scares me off of betting against them here.

146
00:06:56,240 --> 00:06:58,239
Speaker 2: But if I had to bet, it would be Everton

147
00:06:58,240 --> 00:06:59,760
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. I mean, we talked about

148
00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:02,320
Speaker 2: defensive aggression on this show the whole second half of

149
00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,360
Speaker 2: last season, right, and I bet Everton team total over

150
00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,719
Speaker 2: a half at minus one ten in this fixture last

151
00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,480
Speaker 2: year and now it's minus one fifty five. So I

152
00:07:11,520 --> 00:07:14,040
Speaker 2: think that kind of gets to the point where you know,

153
00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:16,920
Speaker 2: we know Everton's probably about the same team they were

154
00:07:16,920 --> 00:07:19,680
Speaker 2: in late April, maybe a little better, but the market

155
00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:23,560
Speaker 2: has clearly shown they have downgraded Liverpool's defense after what

156
00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,640
Speaker 2: happened in the last two months. I mean they've conceded

157
00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:29,080
Speaker 2: first in eight of their last nine matches in the

158
00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:29,679
Speaker 2: Premier League.

159
00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:33,040
Speaker 3: The Everton time wasting became a talking point because Jesse

160
00:07:33,160 --> 00:07:37,560
Speaker 3: Marsh went all cringe pointing to his watch there. How

161
00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,640
Speaker 3: about this them that match between Everton and Leeds. Of

162
00:07:41,120 --> 00:07:44,040
Speaker 3: the five matches Leeds United have played this year, the

163
00:07:44,080 --> 00:07:47,560
Speaker 3: ball in playtime fifty six minutes nineteen seconds. That is

164
00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:50,920
Speaker 3: the highest for any Leads match this season. So he

165
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,880
Speaker 3: was just making mountains out of mole hills there and

166
00:07:53,920 --> 00:07:55,760
Speaker 3: we did see evertton and of course I go full

167
00:07:55,880 --> 00:07:58,840
Speaker 3: shit house against Liverpool at Anfield. I mean, if you

168
00:07:58,840 --> 00:08:00,400
Speaker 3: remember that game at any one that you were just

169
00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,320
Speaker 3: referring to Everton they were time wasted for the beginning,

170
00:08:03,360 --> 00:08:04,280
Speaker 3: but they had to, I mean they were in a

171
00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:05,000
Speaker 3: relegation scrap.

172
00:08:05,240 --> 00:08:06,720
Speaker 2: They also should have been a penalty in that game.

173
00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:07,760
Speaker 2: I'm still upset about that.

174
00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:08,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, it's not.

175
00:08:08,960 --> 00:08:11,679
Speaker 2: Also, my win rate on these seven thirty am matches

176
00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:13,840
Speaker 2: this season and good dating back to last year, is

177
00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:16,200
Speaker 2: like ten percent. I start down. I start down a

178
00:08:16,280 --> 00:08:19,080
Speaker 2: unit every single Saturday morning, and I wake up to it.

179
00:08:19,880 --> 00:08:22,080
Speaker 2: I wake up early, and I'm like all excited, ras

180
00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:25,440
Speaker 2: up and then you know United, I had Villa under

181
00:08:25,560 --> 00:08:27,800
Speaker 2: they scored two goals in the last five minutes. Like,

182
00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:30,000
Speaker 2: I just find ways to lose these seven thirty bets.

183
00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:31,960
Speaker 2: So I think I'm going to pass this week.

184
00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,880
Speaker 1: For my entire life. Ever since I started betting soccer,

185
00:08:34,920 --> 00:08:37,560
Speaker 1: I have this weird superstition that if I lose the

186
00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:40,440
Speaker 1: six three am game here Central Time, I always do

187
00:08:40,559 --> 00:08:42,800
Speaker 1: so much better the entire day and every other sport.

188
00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:44,839
Speaker 1: So like in the back of my head, I always think, well,

189
00:08:44,840 --> 00:08:46,760
Speaker 1: if I lose the opening match, I actually might do

190
00:08:46,920 --> 00:08:49,120
Speaker 1: that well the rest of the rest of the day.

191
00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:52,720
Speaker 1: But I have no up whatsoever. It just makes me better.

192
00:08:52,760 --> 00:08:59,079
Speaker 3: You're selling selling the first set in tennis, Babbio Fanini

193
00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,760
Speaker 3: of we would ever ever and for anything like that.

194
00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:05,679
Speaker 3: Let's move to the ten am kickoffs then and get

195
00:09:05,720 --> 00:09:09,520
Speaker 3: away from these ugly seven thirty starts that give Anthony nightmares.

196
00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,880
Speaker 3: I will start with Brentford and Leads. This one is

197
00:09:11,920 --> 00:09:16,120
Speaker 3: taking place at Brentford Community Stadium. Brentford plus one fifteen

198
00:09:16,120 --> 00:09:19,200
Speaker 3: at BET three six five Leads United plus two thirty.

199
00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:22,400
Speaker 3: The draw here is plus two forty leads now dealing

200
00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:25,920
Speaker 3: with an injury to Rodrigo look like a dislocated shoulder.

201
00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:29,160
Speaker 3: I'm not sure they confirmed that yet, and Brentford coming

202
00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:32,480
Speaker 3: off a hard fought, pretty impressive draw at Crystal Pals.

203
00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,040
Speaker 3: I thought both teams probably would would like to say

204
00:09:35,040 --> 00:09:37,280
Speaker 3: that they deserve more from that game, which tells you

205
00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:39,440
Speaker 3: that a draw maybe is a fair result. Brentford plus

206
00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,720
Speaker 3: one fifteen here. Like I said, they closed plus one

207
00:09:41,840 --> 00:09:45,160
Speaker 3: ten at home to Everdon, which you know, maybe is

208
00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:48,040
Speaker 3: a little wonky because I think we all could agree

209
00:09:48,040 --> 00:09:50,800
Speaker 3: that right now, Leads is better than Everdon, even I think,

210
00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:53,480
Speaker 3: even without Rodrigo. But this is this is a pretty

211
00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:57,160
Speaker 3: simple pass for me, Anthony, anything for you. Brentford and Leads.

212
00:09:57,400 --> 00:09:59,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, Rodrigo looks like the greatest player that's

213
00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:01,880
Speaker 2: ever lived after the first four matches of the season,

214
00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,600
Speaker 2: but they have replacements for him. I mean Bamford's now healthy.

215
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:08,920
Speaker 2: We'll see if they sell Dan James. But I also

216
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,240
Speaker 2: love Louis SINISTERA awesome goal for him, but just an

217
00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:15,360
Speaker 2: awesome start to the season. He's looked very lively. I

218
00:10:15,400 --> 00:10:17,800
Speaker 2: think he deserves a start, and I think he can

219
00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,600
Speaker 2: pretty much slot in and do most of you know,

220
00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:24,560
Speaker 2: between Bamford and SINISTERA I think they more than replace

221
00:10:24,760 --> 00:10:30,200
Speaker 2: the production of Rodrigo being out, And from a you know,

222
00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:32,800
Speaker 2: number point of view, I actually have a little bit

223
00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:35,439
Speaker 2: of value on leads here, so I lean toward leads.

224
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:37,920
Speaker 2: I know I like them much more than BJ does,

225
00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,080
Speaker 2: and BJ likes Brentford a lot more than I do,

226
00:10:41,200 --> 00:10:43,600
Speaker 2: and that's where we kind of differ in this match.

227
00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:48,000
Speaker 2: I have these two teams pretty comparable, and you know,

228
00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:51,720
Speaker 2: after home field advantage, it gets me close to playing leads,

229
00:10:51,760 --> 00:10:54,160
Speaker 2: but not close enough. So I'm going to probably be

230
00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,079
Speaker 2: passing here Brentford. There's so much better at home that

231
00:10:57,160 --> 00:11:00,080
Speaker 2: I almost hate even thinking about betting against them the

232
00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:02,600
Speaker 2: Brentford Community Stadium. But if you're looking to go against

233
00:11:02,640 --> 00:11:05,760
Speaker 2: Brentford as a favorite, UH is one place where you

234
00:11:05,760 --> 00:11:09,560
Speaker 2: can generally find success. UH Leeds also bad set peace

235
00:11:09,600 --> 00:11:12,080
Speaker 2: defense last year. That's another thing that kind of gives

236
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:15,400
Speaker 2: me a red flag and why this will probably ultimately

237
00:11:15,400 --> 00:11:18,080
Speaker 2: be a pass. Brentford gets to odds on, you will

238
00:11:18,080 --> 00:11:20,280
Speaker 2: see me bet Leeds plus a half on the road here,

239
00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:21,040
Speaker 2: go ahead.

240
00:11:20,760 --> 00:11:24,320
Speaker 1: Be I mean, you're just it's just disgusting. I mean,

241
00:11:24,360 --> 00:11:27,679
Speaker 1: this Brentford team was so much better than Leads last year.

242
00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:29,040
Speaker 1: And I know you're gonna tell me that they had

243
00:11:29,040 --> 00:11:31,360
Speaker 1: to play the academy players for like literally three matches,

244
00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:33,320
Speaker 1: but I'll be honest, I really.

245
00:11:33,200 --> 00:11:35,559
Speaker 2: Don't think played five matches this year. And they're like, I.

246
00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:37,559
Speaker 1: Don't really think Jesse Marsh is a good manager. I'll

247
00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:38,600
Speaker 1: just say it, I really hope.

248
00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:40,760
Speaker 3: Yes, honestly, I agree.

249
00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:42,800
Speaker 1: I think he's annoying. I don't think he's a good man.

250
00:11:43,320 --> 00:11:45,400
Speaker 1: I think Thomas Frank is such a better manager.

251
00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:45,800
Speaker 3: He is.

252
00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:46,719
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna out man.

253
00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:48,840
Speaker 2: Just like a better manager.

254
00:11:48,920 --> 00:11:52,360
Speaker 1: Yes, I mean Brentford. It's funny because I don't really

255
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:53,719
Speaker 1: know what to make of their extreme numbers. Like I

256
00:11:53,720 --> 00:11:55,200
Speaker 1: could go over and I could say, oh, man, they

257
00:11:55,240 --> 00:11:58,520
Speaker 1: really dominated Everton and you know they went and they

258
00:11:58,920 --> 00:12:01,440
Speaker 1: out created a crystal palace Sellhurst Park. It's really impressive.

259
00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:04,600
Speaker 1: But it's because they just keep going behind. Like once

260
00:12:04,640 --> 00:12:06,719
Speaker 1: they go behind, yes, they start kicking into gear and

261
00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:08,880
Speaker 1: they actually start to be more aggressive and get the

262
00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,400
Speaker 1: ball moving forward. I would just love to see them

263
00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:13,880
Speaker 1: do that from the beginning and not get behind, because

264
00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,800
Speaker 1: you know, they're averaging over two expected goals for ninety

265
00:12:16,800 --> 00:12:19,600
Speaker 1: minutes when playing from behind this year, Like that's really impressive.

266
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:22,160
Speaker 1: But they're not good playing from zero zero game state

267
00:12:22,480 --> 00:12:25,080
Speaker 1: or playing with the lead honestly. So, I mean, they

268
00:12:25,080 --> 00:12:27,160
Speaker 1: haven't had a lead really other than the United match.

269
00:12:27,640 --> 00:12:29,840
Speaker 1: But I mean you mentioned it, Anthony the Holman waste splits.

270
00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,320
Speaker 1: I mean, let's talk about it. Since the beginning of

271
00:12:32,400 --> 00:12:35,040
Speaker 1: last year. Brentford plus nine point four at the Brentford

272
00:12:35,080 --> 00:12:38,560
Speaker 1: Community Stadium, leads minus fifteen point six away from Ellen

273
00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,920
Speaker 1: Road and under Jesse Marsh leads defensively is lying one

274
00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:44,640
Speaker 1: point six big scoring chances per match, Like they haven't

275
00:12:44,679 --> 00:12:49,040
Speaker 1: gotten better defensively. So I love, I love Brentford in

276
00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:50,760
Speaker 1: this match so much. And you already mentioned obviously the

277
00:12:51,000 --> 00:12:54,120
Speaker 1: set piece issues. It's you know, Brentford, one of the

278
00:12:54,120 --> 00:12:56,000
Speaker 1: best set piece teams in the Premier League, Leads was

279
00:12:56,040 --> 00:13:00,360
Speaker 1: horrible on set pieces last year. Rodrigo being out sets

280
00:13:00,440 --> 00:13:03,400
Speaker 1: up perfectly for Brentford at home. So meyow, Brentford projected

281
00:13:03,400 --> 00:13:05,080
Speaker 1: at plus one on one. So if you're giving me

282
00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:08,640
Speaker 1: plus one fifteen, you know I'd play anything better than that.

283
00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:11,560
Speaker 2: Again, I just think that that.

284
00:13:10,920 --> 00:13:12,319
Speaker 1: He's not a man's a.

285
00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,440
Speaker 2: Clear trend line in the right direction for Lee.

286
00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:16,560
Speaker 1: But here's a question for everybody out there. Do you

287
00:13:16,559 --> 00:13:18,920
Speaker 1: really think he would have gotten this job if he

288
00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:19,760
Speaker 1: wasn't American?

289
00:13:20,120 --> 00:13:22,320
Speaker 2: So wait, wait, wait, wait, So now the argument is

290
00:13:22,559 --> 00:13:24,960
Speaker 2: that America is a conferential treatment.

291
00:13:24,960 --> 00:13:27,640
Speaker 1: He was from, well who owns leads America?

292
00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:30,600
Speaker 2: I completely understand that, and like I understand the criticism

293
00:13:30,600 --> 00:13:33,720
Speaker 2: for Jesse Marsh. But again, we have data from this

294
00:13:33,840 --> 00:13:36,520
Speaker 2: year and they are plus point three to three actually

295
00:13:36,520 --> 00:13:38,839
Speaker 2: difference per ninety through five matches. And it's not like

296
00:13:38,880 --> 00:13:40,520
Speaker 2: they've played a bunch of pushovers. I mean they played

297
00:13:40,559 --> 00:13:45,360
Speaker 2: Chelsea Everton, Okay, not that impressive. Wolves a below to

298
00:13:45,400 --> 00:13:49,199
Speaker 2: mid average team. I mean they've played a relatively weak schedule, Yes,

299
00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:53,200
Speaker 2: but they've put in good performances as underdogs and they have.

300
00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:55,280
Speaker 1: I think it dominated by Brighton.

301
00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,520
Speaker 2: Yes, Brighton's a very good team, Like they're a top

302
00:13:58,559 --> 00:14:00,760
Speaker 2: seven eight team in the league. I mean they were

303
00:14:00,760 --> 00:14:02,800
Speaker 2: on the road and they lost, and and you mentioned

304
00:14:02,880 --> 00:14:04,679
Speaker 2: the final extreme in that match was what one point

305
00:14:04,720 --> 00:14:07,280
Speaker 2: five to point one point nine. I mean Brighton was

306
00:14:07,280 --> 00:14:10,000
Speaker 2: the better team, yes, but I don't think Brentford is

307
00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,120
Speaker 2: as good as Brighton. I think bright Brentford doesn't create

308
00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,840
Speaker 2: as much in neutral game state as Brighton does. So

309
00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,040
Speaker 2: I'm look, I'm not betting leads here. I think the

310
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:19,840
Speaker 2: numbers close, but I don't.

311
00:14:20,320 --> 00:14:21,680
Speaker 1: Don't be a fun disagreement.

312
00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:22,960
Speaker 2: We're gonna have disagreements on this.

313
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:25,520
Speaker 1: See, we'll see who's Yeah, We'll just we'll keep we'll

314
00:14:25,560 --> 00:14:27,600
Speaker 1: keep track of this. So all the listeners out there please.

315
00:14:27,520 --> 00:14:29,560
Speaker 2: And look and look leads. Leads have made a lot

316
00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:32,280
Speaker 2: of improvements or changes at least to their team in

317
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:36,520
Speaker 2: the last and their entire field is entirely new players.

318
00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,000
Speaker 2: Different players are definite than they were last year. I'm

319
00:14:40,040 --> 00:14:42,240
Speaker 2: just saying that, I just don't think March is that

320
00:14:42,280 --> 00:14:42,960
Speaker 2: great advantager.

321
00:14:43,160 --> 00:14:47,280
Speaker 3: We'll see. He is definitely cringey and doesn't help the

322
00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,920
Speaker 3: stereotype that American soccer fans are. Really it's like he's.

323
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:55,000
Speaker 2: He's like playing up this character on the touch line.

324
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,880
Speaker 3: Touch line, yeah, yeah, he's a little much.

325
00:14:58,120 --> 00:14:59,040
Speaker 1: Maybe it's just who he is.

326
00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:02,640
Speaker 3: I think actually that kind of will we'll obviously turn

327
00:15:02,760 --> 00:15:05,000
Speaker 3: against him. As teams, we'll get up for that and

328
00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:07,080
Speaker 3: really want to beat them. But let's move to Chelsea

329
00:15:07,200 --> 00:15:10,640
Speaker 3: and west Ham. Now, Chelsea they are the new crisis club.

330
00:15:10,640 --> 00:15:12,600
Speaker 3: It was man United to start, then it was Liverpool

331
00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,200
Speaker 3: and now it's Chelsea. Their mine is two hundred at

332
00:15:15,240 --> 00:15:18,120
Speaker 3: home hosting west Ham plus four fifty at better six

333
00:15:18,120 --> 00:15:20,200
Speaker 3: five to draw up plus three seventy five. The thing

334
00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:23,880
Speaker 3: that's most concerning about Chelsea's result to Southampton was that

335
00:15:24,080 --> 00:15:27,120
Speaker 3: was exactly the type of game that if you said, okay,

336
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:30,200
Speaker 3: what's the perfect kind of blueprint for Chelsea win, It's okay,

337
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,480
Speaker 3: go ahead early against a team like Southampton because they

338
00:15:32,480 --> 00:15:35,320
Speaker 3: will then squeeze the life out of that match and

339
00:15:35,400 --> 00:15:37,880
Speaker 3: just get it home to nil, maybe three to one

340
00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,800
Speaker 3: or something and never ever look threatened. That is not

341
00:15:40,880 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 3: what happened. They obviously lost from ahead, they were one

342
00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:47,960
Speaker 3: all up. Southampton come back. Maybe Southampton a little bit

343
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:50,800
Speaker 3: better than all of us realized, with all the young

344
00:15:50,840 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 3: talent that's working out right now, we'll see, yes, the

345
00:15:53,080 --> 00:15:57,440
Speaker 3: season goes on. Meanwhile, west Ham well earned draw. I

346
00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,040
Speaker 3: think it gets totten on that second half. I thought

347
00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,040
Speaker 3: they were particularly impressive to come back from one nil

348
00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:05,880
Speaker 3: down against Spurs. I mean, you can't pay this price

349
00:16:05,920 --> 00:16:08,840
Speaker 3: on Chelsea. It's already come down a little bit since

350
00:16:09,000 --> 00:16:11,800
Speaker 3: the results this afternoon, but I still think it's just

351
00:16:11,880 --> 00:16:15,760
Speaker 3: way too expensive against west Ham side that yeah, they

352
00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,120
Speaker 3: they're not perfect, they have their flaws, but they could

353
00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,480
Speaker 3: beat anybody on their day. They have the talent to

354
00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:22,920
Speaker 3: do so. So it'll probably be a bet on the

355
00:16:22,920 --> 00:16:25,040
Speaker 3: west Ham money line for me, Anthony. What do you

356
00:16:25,080 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 3: have here Chelsea and west Ham?

357
00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 2: Yeah? I agree, I'm on the Hammers. I bet regret

358
00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,600
Speaker 2: of the week was not firing on Southampton. There my

359
00:16:32,680 --> 00:16:34,960
Speaker 2: numbers liked them and it came down Reachchains was out.

360
00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:37,240
Speaker 2: I think that is a big loss. It was just

361
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 2: a virus for him, so I do expect him to

362
00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:42,680
Speaker 2: be back. But again, even with Gallagher back, now this

363
00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,720
Speaker 2: midfield looks really broken and Mason Mount continues to be

364
00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:48,800
Speaker 2: mia to start the season. I think that's the biggest

365
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 2: problem right now. You look at the pass maps from

366
00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,840
Speaker 2: the Southampton match and it's a lot of just recycling

367
00:16:54,840 --> 00:16:58,200
Speaker 2: the ball, recycling the ball recycling the ball, nothing coming

368
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:00,920
Speaker 2: of it, and then losing the ball, and then the

369
00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:05,040
Speaker 2: other team has the ball, so there's not any cohesion

370
00:17:05,480 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 2: and the entire attack is running through Raheem Sterling, who's great.

371
00:17:09,000 --> 00:17:10,399
Speaker 2: I mean he had a great game against Southampton. You

372
00:17:10,440 --> 00:17:12,919
Speaker 2: should have scored a couple, but that can't be the

373
00:17:13,040 --> 00:17:15,720
Speaker 2: entire attack, especially for a team who's like minus two

374
00:17:15,800 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 2: hundred in a Premier League match against west Ham, who look,

375
00:17:19,280 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 2: they're clearly regressed. I mean, they're not the team that

376
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:23,119
Speaker 2: they were last year. They're not the team they were

377
00:17:23,119 --> 00:17:25,480
Speaker 2: in the first half of the season. But I think

378
00:17:25,480 --> 00:17:27,920
Speaker 2: it's very clear they're also not as bad as they

379
00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 2: looked in a couple of the early season matches, and

380
00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:32,720
Speaker 2: some variants went against them early and you expect it

381
00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:35,480
Speaker 2: to come back. And they played pretty well against Birth

382
00:17:35,520 --> 00:17:38,040
Speaker 2: today and I thought they played well at the weekend

383
00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,640
Speaker 2: defensively despite being in a center back crisis. And look,

384
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:43,600
Speaker 2: the center back issue is real for west Ham, but

385
00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:45,840
Speaker 2: it's not as important when you're playing a Chelsea attack

386
00:17:45,880 --> 00:17:48,560
Speaker 2: that has not been able to exploit teams pick them apart.

387
00:17:49,040 --> 00:17:51,840
Speaker 2: And I'm gonna be honest, the player that Chelsea is

388
00:17:51,840 --> 00:17:55,920
Speaker 2: missing the most and people will laugh it's Tema Werner,

389
00:17:56,080 --> 00:17:59,040
Speaker 2: it's team and the guy could never finish a chant.

390
00:17:59,080 --> 00:18:01,560
Speaker 2: All the jokes, you know, we all make jokes on Timo,

391
00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 2: but like the player they needed against Southampton to open

392
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,440
Speaker 2: them up, get in behind, and Werner underrated passer connecting

393
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:11,359
Speaker 2: the play coming short, like Vernon does a lot of

394
00:18:11,440 --> 00:18:14,919
Speaker 2: very good things that go unnoticed because he always seemed

395
00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:16,399
Speaker 2: to miss all of his chances on the end of

396
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:19,520
Speaker 2: him and people only remember those. They're missing a player

397
00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:21,960
Speaker 2: like that, and Haverdz has not been that and mount

398
00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:25,720
Speaker 2: has disappeared. So like Chelsea's in crisis because they're a

399
00:18:25,720 --> 00:18:27,840
Speaker 2: little bit broken right now and I'm sure Tukle will

400
00:18:28,040 --> 00:18:31,640
Speaker 2: either figure it out or get fired, but until then,

401
00:18:31,920 --> 00:18:33,800
Speaker 2: I'm continuing to look to fade Chelsea.

402
00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:37,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think depends on the spot. Because if Chelsea

403
00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:41,600
Speaker 3: was coming into this week playing United or even Liverpool

404
00:18:41,680 --> 00:18:43,640
Speaker 3: or someone like that, I think we'd catch a really

405
00:18:43,640 --> 00:18:46,960
Speaker 3: good number on Chelsea and it would be a by opportunity.

406
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:50,240
Speaker 3: But in this kind of matchup, you're asking to light

407
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,680
Speaker 3: minus two hundred against a solid mid table side who

408
00:18:53,720 --> 00:18:57,000
Speaker 3: are well drilled and know how to navigate tough situations.

409
00:18:57,000 --> 00:18:58,880
Speaker 3: That this team's played together for a very long time,

410
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,000
Speaker 3: this west Ham core, and they're very good. Look.

411
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:05,159
Speaker 2: They just introduced Lucas Panina today and I love what

412
00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:07,000
Speaker 2: he could potentially add to this west Ham team. I

413
00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 2: think he's a very interesting piece to play either with

414
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 2: or I think he'll end up playing in front of

415
00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:14,840
Speaker 2: Rice and Socheck and when they finally get the center

416
00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:18,040
Speaker 2: backs healthy, I think that's a big addition to west Ham.

417
00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,600
Speaker 2: I still think they have a problem at striker. Antonio

418
00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:21,200
Speaker 2: is not.

419
00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:22,000
Speaker 3: Look good today.

420
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:25,720
Speaker 2: He looks he looks old generally and the production has

421
00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:28,560
Speaker 2: not been there. But I think west Ham it's a

422
00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:30,439
Speaker 2: good by low time for the Hammers a little bit.

423
00:19:30,440 --> 00:19:33,159
Speaker 2: They're not going to finish in the bottom six seven.

424
00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:35,880
Speaker 2: I think they're pretty safely right around tenth BJ.

425
00:19:36,320 --> 00:19:38,880
Speaker 1: Anything for you here side or total, yeah, I might

426
00:19:39,040 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: potentially play an under here. Under two and a half

427
00:19:40,920 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 1: is getting up to plus one twenty at some places.

428
00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 1: You know, you guys mentioned it about adverts and mount

429
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 1: They've played a combined seven hundred and seventy seven minutes

430
00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:52,400
Speaker 1: in the Premier League this season. They have zero goals

431
00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:56,560
Speaker 1: and zero assists, so they have literally been mia throughout

432
00:19:56,560 --> 00:19:59,679
Speaker 1: the Premier League so far. But west Ham, you know,

433
00:19:59,840 --> 00:20:02,200
Speaker 1: I I say they look better today. But we talked

434
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,840
Speaker 1: about it last week that these David Moys teams have

435
00:20:04,920 --> 00:20:06,520
Speaker 1: kind of just peaked a little bit. If you go

436
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:09,960
Speaker 1: from there to December fourth win against Chelsea at the

437
00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,840
Speaker 1: London State Stadium last year, they're only at one point

438
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:17,480
Speaker 1: two seven XG per match. Specifically from last year to

439
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:22,879
Speaker 1: this year, their progressive passes, their ball recoveries, their presses,

440
00:20:23,000 --> 00:20:27,600
Speaker 1: their tackles per ninety are all down significantly. With that,

441
00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,919
Speaker 1: that's just lacking effort. Honestly, that's just acting like at

442
00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,320
Speaker 1: lacking a little bit of spark. So we'll see if

443
00:20:34,320 --> 00:20:35,640
Speaker 1: they get that back. I mean, they're gonna be start

444
00:20:35,640 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 1: playing Europe again, which was had a huge effect on

445
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 1: them towards the second half of last season. And I'll

446
00:20:40,840 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: be interesting to see how west Ham sets up in

447
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:45,440
Speaker 1: this match because towards the end of last season when

448
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 1: they played Chelsea, granted it was during their their Europa

449
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: League run, but they went to Stanford Bridge and they

450
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,159
Speaker 1: just set up. They just basically parked the bus and

451
00:20:53,200 --> 00:20:56,399
Speaker 1: they played uber defensive. Chelsea outgradd them two point eight

452
00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,880
Speaker 1: to point five on xg outshot them twenty five to four.

453
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,120
Speaker 1: If you remember, you know, missed a penalty and then

454
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:03,439
Speaker 1: Pulus Citch came and scored in the nineteth minute to

455
00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:06,240
Speaker 1: win one nothing. But you know, Chelsea for you know,

456
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:09,960
Speaker 1: obviously deserved the result. Is west Ham gonna play that

457
00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,119
Speaker 1: uber defensive again against Chelsea or are they gonna say, okay,

458
00:21:14,160 --> 00:21:15,879
Speaker 1: let's see. You know Southampton was able to take it

459
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:17,240
Speaker 1: to them, why don't we open it up? Why don't

460
00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:19,800
Speaker 1: we try to count them? So it'll be interesting if

461
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,960
Speaker 1: if under two and a half gets to plus one

462
00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,200
Speaker 1: twenty five, I'm definitely playing it. I only have two

463
00:21:24,240 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 1: point five to one goals projected, so for me, I'm

464
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: definitely looking at playing the under in this match.

465
00:21:30,119 --> 00:21:32,480
Speaker 3: When I when I first looked at the slate for

466
00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:36,119
Speaker 3: this coming weekend, two prices jumped off the boards to

467
00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:37,640
Speaker 3: me right away, and we're going to talk about those

468
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,480
Speaker 3: two next. We'll start with this one. Newcastle plus one

469
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:42,479
Speaker 3: oh five at bet three six five at home hosting

470
00:21:43,080 --> 00:21:45,800
Speaker 3: our boys Crystal Palace. It's gonna feel good. We took

471
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 3: a week off and it didn't feel right not betting them,

472
00:21:48,800 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 3: but I'll be back on them here plus two seventy

473
00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:54,360
Speaker 3: five at Saint James Park the draw plus two forty PJ.

474
00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 3: I think you made a good point before about Palace.

475
00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,720
Speaker 3: They went ahead, they shelled up a little bit too much.

476
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 3: They looked good, like they were still dictating to play.

477
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,600
Speaker 3: I think Patrick Viera probably would like to have that

478
00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 3: one back with the way he managed that game out

479
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:10,320
Speaker 3: rather than just going for the second goal. They really

480
00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:14,920
Speaker 3: did get defensive Newcastle though. I mean they're valiant, valiant

481
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:20,199
Speaker 3: effort at anfield without Bruno, without Allen c maximn and

482
00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:24,840
Speaker 3: without Callum Wilson. But this line suggests that Newcastle, this

483
00:22:24,960 --> 00:22:27,760
Speaker 3: version of Newcastle, will be favored over west Ham on

484
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 3: a neutral site. That's not right. I mean I think

485
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:33,879
Speaker 3: even at full strength it's pretty close. So give me

486
00:22:34,359 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 3: Crystal Palace plus two seventy five nearly three to one

487
00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 3: on a really good team here. I know they're on

488
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 3: the road and last season it really bared out that

489
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,880
Speaker 3: they played much better at Sealhurst Park. But this team

490
00:22:43,920 --> 00:22:48,280
Speaker 3: they have the kind of midfield horses to stick with Newcastle,

491
00:22:48,320 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 3: and we saw Newcastle struggled in situations where the onus

492
00:22:52,400 --> 00:22:54,560
Speaker 3: was on them to dictate play. They seem to punch

493
00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 3: up better as an underdog encounter. We saw that, you

494
00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,360
Speaker 3: know in the City game. Even today it gets in Liverpool.

495
00:22:59,440 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 3: So this this one, a team that doesn't profile well

496
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 3: is a favorite against a team that does profile well

497
00:23:03,960 --> 00:23:06,760
Speaker 3: as an underdog in Crystal Palace. So back on the Eagles.

498
00:23:06,760 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 3: It feels so nice, Anthony anything.

499
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:10,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, just appear numbers play for me here. I mean,

500
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:14,040
Speaker 2: I make this game Newcastle a slight favorite, don't get

501
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 2: them to a full half goal, only got a point

502
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,120
Speaker 2: two six and so I'm happy to uh And that's

503
00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 2: you know, basically a home field adjustment. I've got Crystal

504
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,160
Speaker 2: Palace slightly better. You adjust for home field. You get

505
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,800
Speaker 2: to Newcastle as a slight favorite, not a half goal

506
00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 2: palace plus a half. We're back on the Eagles and

507
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 2: it is nice that the one time we all did

508
00:23:31,640 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 2: not bet them, they did not win. So it feels

509
00:23:34,560 --> 00:23:37,399
Speaker 2: good to not miss out and we're back all right,

510
00:23:37,440 --> 00:23:38,680
Speaker 2: BJ three for three.

511
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,800
Speaker 1: Yeah, I definitely own Crystal Palace here. It's yeah, you

512
00:23:41,840 --> 00:23:44,840
Speaker 1: mentioned Viera going very conservative. You know, he obviously did

513
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 1: it against Manchester City because it's it's Manchester City, so

514
00:23:48,200 --> 00:23:49,919
Speaker 1: you know a lot of teams will.

515
00:23:49,760 --> 00:23:51,040
Speaker 2: Do those goals are fluky too.

516
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:55,879
Speaker 1: They were fluky. Yeah, So when Palace scored against Brentford,

517
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,880
Speaker 1: the actually zero point six to point four to nine

518
00:23:57,880 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 1: in the fifty ninth minute and match edded, you know,

519
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 1: Brentford one point eight to Palace about point eight. So

520
00:24:02,520 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 1: they really just took their foot off the pedal and

521
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,360
Speaker 1: even saw like a Zaha in the postgame press conference

522
00:24:08,440 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: was like really upset. He was like, I don't know

523
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 1: why we went ultra conservative, like what we were creating chances,

524
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 1: like we were getting the good ball moving forward and

525
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,000
Speaker 1: they were controlling possession pretty well against Brentford and they

526
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 1: just kind of sat back. Well, if we go back

527
00:24:20,960 --> 00:24:23,600
Speaker 1: to when they played Newcastle towards the end of last season,

528
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:25,560
Speaker 1: Newcastle went up early and they did the exact same

529
00:24:25,560 --> 00:24:27,840
Speaker 1: thing the Palace did to Brentford, and Newcastle has been

530
00:24:27,840 --> 00:24:30,080
Speaker 1: doing that quite a bit basically since Eddie Howe took over.

531
00:24:30,119 --> 00:24:31,800
Speaker 1: Once they go up, they basically all right, we're gonna

532
00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:33,919
Speaker 1: sit in defensively. But you already mentioned it, Michael, no

533
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,959
Speaker 1: Saint Maximum, no Callum Wilson, no Guimares. Obviously, e Shock's amazing.

534
00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: It was a great goal for him today. But who's

535
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 1: going to be supplying him the ball against the top

536
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,000
Speaker 1: five defense in the Premier League. So the one thing

537
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,120
Speaker 1: I all look out for Crystal Palace is they're second

538
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 1: to last in the Premier League and passed per defensive

539
00:24:49,040 --> 00:24:51,400
Speaker 1: action right now, which is kind of concerning because last

540
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: season they actually were a top five team in terms

541
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:56,480
Speaker 1: of presses per ninety and when they played Newcastle towards

542
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 1: the end of last season their passes per defensive action

543
00:24:58,560 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 1: was five point fours. They did press them really really well.

544
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:03,919
Speaker 1: So I'm hoping that Krystal Palace is a little more

545
00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 1: aggressive comes out tries to press. Newcastle, who I've already

546
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:08,840
Speaker 1: mentioned was the worst team playing through pressure from the

547
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 1: January transfer window on, didn't look good playing through pressure

548
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,399
Speaker 1: against Liverpool today. So I'm with Anthony, I have I

549
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 1: have Newcastle plus one twenty seven. Five thirty eight's got

550
00:25:17,840 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 1: them at plus one twenty five. So yeah, definitely some

551
00:25:20,320 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 1: value on young Krystalis and I'll be on them plus

552
00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:22,840
Speaker 1: half a goal.

553
00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,440
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think that pass per defensive action is very

554
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 2: scheduled depend in this case. Yeah, you know, yeah, because

555
00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,360
Speaker 2: they've they've played Arsenal City and they were up for

556
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 2: you know, they were up on at least two of

557
00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:34,280
Speaker 2: those teams.

558
00:25:34,440 --> 00:25:37,240
Speaker 1: We want to see a team that played aston Villa, like, yes,

559
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,960
Speaker 1: they went behind, but like from right when they went behind,

560
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,360
Speaker 1: they were like, we're controlling this match, that we're controlling possession,

561
00:25:42,359 --> 00:25:44,000
Speaker 1: we're moving the ball for like that team.

562
00:25:43,840 --> 00:25:46,480
Speaker 2: Is really good and honestly, the team that played Arsenal

563
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 2: opening day, yes, yeah, I had a lot of success

564
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 2: pressing Arsenal as well. I kind of think Arsenal Newcastle

565
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,360
Speaker 2: are similar, except Arsenal have much.

566
00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: Better, way better players, well.

567
00:25:56,600 --> 00:25:59,760
Speaker 2: Much better attacking players, at least midfield. I think they're comparable.

568
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:02,719
Speaker 3: The other price that it stood out to me right

569
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 3: away actually chortled when I when I saw the line,

570
00:26:06,040 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 3: not even forced odds on.

571
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 2: Odds on, I'm pretty close to that minus one.

572
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 1: I'm on that. Yeah, I'm on right on. I'm on

573
00:26:12,800 --> 00:26:14,200
Speaker 1: Nodding and Forest plus one two.

574
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,000
Speaker 2: I I mean I have Nodding m fort slightly better

575
00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:18,920
Speaker 2: and home field.

576
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 3: Yep, and born with plus two eighty drop plus two

577
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,400
Speaker 3: fifty born with. We were all nothing today zero four

578
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,240
Speaker 3: three six. They had a couple of good chances actually

579
00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 3: against Wolves one point four to seven in total on

580
00:26:33,480 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 3: the year. According to understat and it's it's amazing. I mean,

581
00:26:37,280 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 3: I remember we did a preview podcast with Alain Shapiro

582
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 3: from the FMLFPL podcast and I was saying, just this,

583
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:45,680
Speaker 3: this is the worst team in the Premier League. The

584
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:47,240
Speaker 3: worst team of the Premier League doesn't get took to

585
00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:49,520
Speaker 3: thirty points. That's why I like the under thirty two

586
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 3: and a half on bourn with and my main reasoning

587
00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:53,800
Speaker 3: was they didn't have good players. There was no good place,

588
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:55,280
Speaker 3: as simple as that.

589
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:56,240
Speaker 2: Scott Parker agrees.

590
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:58,399
Speaker 3: That's why Scott Parker got sacked because he spoke out

591
00:26:58,440 --> 00:27:00,600
Speaker 3: against that and they still don't have good players. People

592
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:02,600
Speaker 3: got caught up with Dominic Selonki because he had a

593
00:27:02,640 --> 00:27:05,080
Speaker 3: good season in the Championship, but he didn't have any

594
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 3: Premier League players around him to help him bring that

595
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:11,320
Speaker 3: success forward. All that being set, all of that being said,

596
00:27:11,560 --> 00:27:13,840
Speaker 3: I am not going to pass up the opportunity to

597
00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,840
Speaker 3: bet at a Premier League team, one that has a win

598
00:27:16,920 --> 00:27:21,520
Speaker 3: this year. Remember that plus two eighty against Nottingham forced

599
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,080
Speaker 3: you just can't. I mean, your numbers are gonna say whatever,

600
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 3: but this is the twentieth best team in the Premier

601
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:29,240
Speaker 3: League versus the nineteenth best team in the Premier League

602
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:31,440
Speaker 3: and one of them is plus two eighty, simple as that.

603
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 2: BJ.

604
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: This is so I mean, we were early enough. I

605
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 1: mean not even Forrest. They've bought so many players that

606
00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,439
Speaker 1: it almost makes it not relevant. But we can go

607
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:45,800
Speaker 1: back at least two you know, the times these teams

608
00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 1: played each other in the Championship.

609
00:27:48,080 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 2: You know, Bournemouth players are playing like I know, like

610
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 2: a couple of them have actually played, so I think

611
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 2: there's you know, there's still some mostly last year's team there.

612
00:27:57,000 --> 00:27:59,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean it's I mean, Bournemouth beat Forrest one

613
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 1: nothing like, they went up early and then Forrest basically

614
00:28:02,160 --> 00:28:03,880
Speaker 1: kind of dominated the match from that point on. Next

615
00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 1: she was one point three to point four US and

616
00:28:07,680 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: then they obviously they played on the second day of

617
00:28:09,560 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 1: the year last year, which you can't really can't really

618
00:28:12,200 --> 00:28:14,159
Speaker 1: take much from that because for us, you know, they

619
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 1: started out so bad at the beginning of the Championship.

620
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,760
Speaker 1: But I don't even know what to do, Michael, I mean,

621
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:21,480
Speaker 1: I mean, I know what you're gonna say, well, just

622
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:27,920
Speaker 1: take Bournemouth. They've been so so bad offensively, and I

623
00:28:27,920 --> 00:28:29,840
Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, it's it's hard because then

624
00:28:29,880 --> 00:28:32,639
Speaker 1: I look at Nottingham Forest and I'm like, you can't

625
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 1: just buy twenty new players, throw them on the pitch

626
00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:37,520
Speaker 1: and just say hey, play together. Like it takes some

627
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,080
Speaker 1: time for this to work. So you know, you could

628
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 1: potentially look at an under here, you know, if Bournemouth's

629
00:28:43,160 --> 00:28:46,080
Speaker 1: got truly going to set up this conservative under a

630
00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: caretaker manager who Michael, I'm like, I mention, did coach

631
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 1: Liverpool le you twenty three ago? So we'll conspiracy theory

632
00:28:52,440 --> 00:28:58,560
Speaker 1: out there, potensionally got Parker sacked beating him nine to nothing,

633
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:01,440
Speaker 1: But yeah, that's for another day. Uh No, I'm passing

634
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 1: this is I don't. I don't. I mean this match

635
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:06,720
Speaker 1: it'll be it'll be painfully fun to watch.

636
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 2: But uh Wolves, Bourne was not pain was not fun

637
00:29:10,320 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 2: or painful. It was just pain.

638
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:12,480
Speaker 3: But there's a little difference here.

639
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 2: I mean we cashed, but I catched the post a

640
00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 2: half but it was terrible.

641
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:17,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, it was a new nail. So like Bourne myth

642
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 3: by the way, Yeah, they they're the worst team in the

643
00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 3: prety League. They have four points. That's a lot more

644
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 3: than where it's one more than.

645
00:29:23,440 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 1: Ever did fire.

646
00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 2: There's there's more than Lester, there's more than Lester. It's

647
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:29,520
Speaker 2: worth villain at the time of recording.

648
00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, right, more than Wolves.

649
00:29:31,520 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 3: Right, So we're talking about this team. They're bad, we

650
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 3: know they're terrible, but they have scratched out four points

651
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:41,520
Speaker 3: against Acid, Villa and Wolves. Meanwhile, they lost the games

652
00:29:41,520 --> 00:29:45,200
Speaker 3: they lost to sixteen nothing on aggregate. By the way,

653
00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 3: we're against Arsenal.

654
00:29:47,680 --> 00:29:50,200
Speaker 2: Clean sheets and the other two and the other two

655
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:53,280
Speaker 2: matches and and so this is what's kind of lucky today.

656
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:55,800
Speaker 3: Bet right, Like they're going to sit back and they're

657
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 3: going to try to just get two or three decent

658
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 3: counters and one of them goes in and then hope

659
00:30:01,440 --> 00:30:03,560
Speaker 3: that they can just hold on for dear life. That

660
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,040
Speaker 3: can work against Donningham Forest who against Tottenham they did

661
00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:09,480
Speaker 3: a good job of kind of that middle third of

662
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:13,080
Speaker 3: their of the they're attacking half, but then they can

663
00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,280
Speaker 3: never get that that key pass or the key play

664
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:17,280
Speaker 3: to really create a big scoring chance.

665
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:19,760
Speaker 1: We're gonna find out how good Naam Forrest is coming

666
00:30:19,800 --> 00:30:21,480
Speaker 1: up because they played a tough schedule. Let's be honest,

667
00:30:21,480 --> 00:30:23,760
Speaker 1: they played a pretty difficult schedule open the season. They

668
00:30:23,760 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 1: got Bournemouth, leads Fulham, Lester, Aston Villa, Wolf, Snack, all

669
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,520
Speaker 1: coming up, So we're really gonna find out, Like as

670
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: the January after as this in Transmuendo finally closes and

671
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 1: they can't behind any new players, We're really gonna find

672
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,040
Speaker 1: out how good this team is. Are they near the

673
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 1: bottom with Bournemouth right now? I mean i'd say no,

674
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,600
Speaker 1: but maybe this match will show us that. Yeah, maybe

675
00:30:46,600 --> 00:30:48,760
Speaker 1: they should be near the bottom of Bournemouth right now.

676
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 3: I think they. I think it's pretty fair to say

677
00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,120
Speaker 3: that these are the two worst teams in the Premier Yeah, Anthony,

678
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 3: what do you have here in terms of a bet

679
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 3: on Forrest Bournemouth?

680
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under two and a half. Forrest

681
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 2: could paste it. I don't care about the match, throw

682
00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,960
Speaker 2: it out. Bournemouth got pasted to by City. It doesn't matter. Really,

683
00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 2: it's a totally different competition when you're playing them versus

684
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 2: when you're playing each other. I think Bournemouth showed an

685
00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 2: impressive work rate off the ball today. I was very

686
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 2: impressed by that they defended relatively well. I mean, Wolves

687
00:31:16,880 --> 00:31:19,480
Speaker 2: had a couple of chances, but nothing crazy, nothing like

688
00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 2: where you're like, how have they not scored? Rawul had

689
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 2: the only chance that you know, where you're really like, okay,

690
00:31:23,840 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 2: they probably should have scored there and then maybe in

691
00:31:25,400 --> 00:31:28,360
Speaker 2: the last minute, but I thought they defended the box well.

692
00:31:28,640 --> 00:31:32,400
Speaker 2: I think this attack was they overperformed last year a

693
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:36,520
Speaker 2: decent bit and they were due to regress anyway coming

694
00:31:36,520 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 2: into this league, and they have fallen off a cliff

695
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,920
Speaker 2: offensively and I don't think they have any solutions to that.

696
00:31:42,040 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 2: So I think Forrest defensively should be okay here, and

697
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 2: I think this is a grinded out, clawed out kind

698
00:31:47,800 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 2: of game. And at two and a half, I'm happy

699
00:31:49,320 --> 00:31:52,320
Speaker 2: to take the under. I'm you know, I guess Notdingham

700
00:31:52,320 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 2: Forest's defense has been so bad and both defense have

701
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 2: been so bad against these top teams that you're getting

702
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:58,560
Speaker 2: a two and a half. But really, I think it

703
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 2: should be closer to two and a quarter, So I'll

704
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 2: take the under two and a half of minus one twenty.

705
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,680
Speaker 3: Now we can move on to Anthony's Tottenham Hotspur. I

706
00:32:05,720 --> 00:32:08,920
Speaker 3: got nothing here between Tottenham and Fulham Spurs minus two

707
00:32:08,960 --> 00:32:11,479
Speaker 3: to fifty at home Fulham plus six hundred to draw,

708
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:14,280
Speaker 3: plus three seventy five at Bet three six five. I

709
00:32:14,440 --> 00:32:17,560
Speaker 3: was an impressive win for Fulham against Brighton, stopped a

710
00:32:17,680 --> 00:32:20,720
Speaker 3: nine game beaten streak in the Premier League for the

711
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 3: Seagulls going back to last season. It is another tough

712
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 3: stylistic matchup for a team like them. It gets Tottenham,

713
00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 3: but Spurs, Anthony, you kind of were onto this a

714
00:32:30,120 --> 00:32:32,600
Speaker 3: little earlier than us. You watched them with maybe a

715
00:32:32,640 --> 00:32:36,680
Speaker 3: tighter lens. They don't look quite right yet, so tough

716
00:32:36,720 --> 00:32:40,120
Speaker 3: to lay minus two fifty here. I'm tempted by the

717
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:43,320
Speaker 3: price on Fulham, but I will likely be staying away.

718
00:32:43,560 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 2: What about you, No, I'm taking Fulham. I mean, let's

719
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,320
Speaker 2: flash back. You gotta go all the way back to

720
00:32:49,400 --> 00:32:54,160
Speaker 2: last Saturday when Arsenal played Fulham and the line was

721
00:32:54,360 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 2: right where it is now. It actually closed lower. I

722
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,920
Speaker 2: have Arsenal power rated better than Spurs after five matt

723
00:33:00,120 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 2: the Premier League season. Congratulations bj It's close. But Fulham

724
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 2: were plus one and a half in that match, and

725
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:10,320
Speaker 2: I bet I bet against Arsenal and Fulham were plus

726
00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:11,800
Speaker 2: one and a half in this match, and I will

727
00:33:11,800 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 2: be betting against Tottenham. The thing that is a little

728
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:18,320
Speaker 2: scary is that when Spurs go ahead, they almost become

729
00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,720
Speaker 2: more dangerous because of how effective they are in transition.

730
00:33:20,760 --> 00:33:22,960
Speaker 2: And you know when teams have to come and try

731
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,560
Speaker 2: to get that goal. I mean, i'd argue they're the

732
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,080
Speaker 2: best counter attacking direct position team in the league and

733
00:33:28,400 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 2: they're very good at that. So that is the scary

734
00:33:30,360 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 2: part of having fullha plus one and a half. But

735
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 2: my numbers say that Fulham's undervalued here. I'm still skeptical

736
00:33:36,360 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 2: of Tottenham. I mean today the x G was like

737
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:42,360
Speaker 2: one point four too point seven in favor of west Ham. Now,

738
00:33:42,360 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: granted there was a tap in by sone that was

739
00:33:44,920 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 2: great in home goals, so okay throw that in. Still,

740
00:33:47,360 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 2: I mean it was an even match and west Ham

741
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 2: exposed what I think is the biggest problem with Spurs

742
00:33:53,720 --> 00:33:57,040
Speaker 2: right now, and it's that none of their center backs

743
00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,480
Speaker 2: can pass. And we saw it time and time again.

744
00:33:59,520 --> 00:34:00,880
Speaker 2: They kept get and stuck trying to get out of

745
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 2: their own half, trying to get the ball up. Basuma

746
00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:08,520
Speaker 2: and Hoybier are good passers, but they're not progressive passers.

747
00:34:08,560 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 2: They don't really move the ball forward. They kind of

748
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 2: just recycle the possession and then usually either Kine comes

749
00:34:13,960 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 2: short of the wing backs are in charge of bringing

750
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:19,319
Speaker 2: the ball up. So I think Fulham they're gonna sit low.

751
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:22,080
Speaker 2: They're gonna sit deep, They're gonna press at times, but

752
00:34:22,160 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 2: I think they can do a pretty effective job of

753
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:26,759
Speaker 2: forcing Spurs center backs to pass through them, and I

754
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:28,319
Speaker 2: don't think that they're going to be able to create

755
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 2: a lot off of that. So taking full the plus

756
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,319
Speaker 2: one and a half, you're rolling your eyes there.

757
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:36,760
Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, come on, really, I mean only

758
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,200
Speaker 1: five matches that I mean, Tottenham's look fine, like solid,

759
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,720
Speaker 1: they have completely dr I mean, yeah, whatever.

760
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,160
Speaker 2: Shot differential, I'm still a little concerning. And I understand,

761
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 2: like shot quality is real, but so.

762
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 1: Here's here's Here's where I'm at is that we haven't

763
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:54,279
Speaker 1: and this is kind of you know, to your point

764
00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:57,000
Speaker 1: Anthony about uh, you know, Tottenham being dangerous when they

765
00:34:57,000 --> 00:35:00,760
Speaker 1: have a lead. We haven't seen Fulham really play from

766
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 1: behind this season. I mean, for what a few minutes

767
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 1: against Arsenal when they went down to one, but they

768
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,960
Speaker 1: were ahead against Liverpool. They drew Wolves zero zero. They

769
00:35:10,040 --> 00:35:13,960
Speaker 1: were ahead against Arsenal, They were ahead against Brentford for

770
00:35:14,000 --> 00:35:16,560
Speaker 1: most of the match. They went ahead against Brighton. I

771
00:35:16,600 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: thought Brighton was a lot better in the first half,

772
00:35:19,200 --> 00:35:20,840
Speaker 1: was able to control possession, wasn't able to get a

773
00:35:20,840 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: lot of shots but they were controlling the midfield pretty well,

774
00:35:23,120 --> 00:35:24,600
Speaker 1: and then it was kind of just like a fluky

775
00:35:24,640 --> 00:35:28,000
Speaker 1: little bounce that got through and Mitrovitch put it away

776
00:35:28,040 --> 00:35:30,000
Speaker 1: and that kind of forced Brighton's hand to play a

777
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:34,000
Speaker 1: little more aggressive. So I don't really know what we're

778
00:35:34,000 --> 00:35:37,640
Speaker 1: gonna see from Marco Sila if they go down against Tottenham.

779
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 3: He could go.

780
00:35:38,640 --> 00:35:40,879
Speaker 1: Crazy and they could just play uber aggressive and try

781
00:35:40,920 --> 00:35:43,160
Speaker 1: and press Tottenham. But I mean Folham's not been a

782
00:35:43,160 --> 00:35:46,040
Speaker 1: good pressing team. They're actually, you know, fifth to last

783
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:47,920
Speaker 1: in the Premier League and pass per defensive action, and

784
00:35:47,920 --> 00:35:50,560
Speaker 1: they're actually the second worst team at playing through pressure,

785
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:53,399
Speaker 1: which Southampton right now is the worst. So San Anthony's point,

786
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,400
Speaker 1: they're gonna sit deep like they're going to defend, like

787
00:35:55,440 --> 00:35:57,279
Speaker 1: they have done a really good job of that so far.

788
00:35:57,760 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 1: But purely from a numbers play, I mean, I have

789
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,279
Speaker 1: a little bit of value on Tottenham minus one and

790
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 1: a half and plus one fifteen. You know, I rate

791
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 1: them essentially from the content era on which essentially is

792
00:36:07,520 --> 00:36:11,160
Speaker 1: two expected goals for men one against, which is pretty impressive.

793
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 1: So I'm back in Tottenham. I've shown some value on it,

794
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,040
Speaker 1: and I don't think we know what Fulham is going

795
00:36:16,080 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 1: to look like if they actually go behind.

796
00:36:18,080 --> 00:36:20,919
Speaker 3: That's why you love this podcast. We are not here

797
00:36:20,960 --> 00:36:23,239
Speaker 3: to sit around the water cooler, as our friend Colin

798
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:25,400
Speaker 3: Wilson on the BBOC podcast once said, we're here to

799
00:36:25,400 --> 00:36:28,280
Speaker 3: talk about the betting, but we're also here for bj

800
00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 3: the Arsenal fan to bet on Tottenham and Anthony the

801
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:34,400
Speaker 3: Tottenham fan to bet against Tottenham. Another ten am kickoff,

802
00:36:34,560 --> 00:36:36,520
Speaker 3: this one. I don't know who's gonna be watching it.

803
00:36:36,560 --> 00:36:40,520
Speaker 3: Wolves plus one fifteen at home Southampton. Hats off to them.

804
00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 3: I think, by the way, we probably were a little

805
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,439
Speaker 3: wrong about how good this team is for at least

806
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,319
Speaker 3: right now. Do have questions about their depth and the

807
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 3: style they play, but we'll get good man. We'll get

808
00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,200
Speaker 3: to those in November. So Saints plus two twenty five

809
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 3: the draw plus two forty. This line suggests that Wolverhampton

810
00:36:59,400 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 3: would be a slight, slight favorite on a new forra

811
00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:06,560
Speaker 3: Field over Saints. I don't know. I don't know if

812
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 3: I agree with that, but these are two rough teams.

813
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 3: BJA anything here.

814
00:37:12,160 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll probably end up playing Southampton. I really don't

815
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: want to pay, you know, it's it's minus one forty

816
00:37:17,120 --> 00:37:19,120
Speaker 1: five right now for plus half a goal in Southampton,

817
00:37:19,200 --> 00:37:20,719
Speaker 1: I really don't want to I want to play that,

818
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,120
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna I actually show me a little bit

819
00:37:23,160 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 1: of value on them. Drawn no bet plus one fifty.

820
00:37:26,320 --> 00:37:29,280
Speaker 1: They were good against Chelsea, like they they didn't control

821
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 1: out of possession, but they played well defensively. The midfield

822
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:33,799
Speaker 1: is good with James Wood Prowse, you know, the young

823
00:37:33,840 --> 00:37:37,000
Speaker 1: pieces like Libya and a couple other guys have been

824
00:37:37,040 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 1: really good so far this season. You know, they haven't

825
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 1: been good at playing through pressure and I mean who's

826
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: laying wolves is a favorite right now? I mean like

827
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:48,160
Speaker 1: they have not been impressive. Like, yeah, they dominated the

828
00:37:48,239 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 1: you know possession against Bournemouth today, but I mean, like

829
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 1: Anthony said, they didn't create really anything of value other

830
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,680
Speaker 1: than the you know, Jimenez chance. They haven't been good

831
00:37:56,760 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 1: so far the season, even though they have controlled all

832
00:37:58,560 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 1: that possession. Like I mentioned last podcast, they lead the

833
00:38:01,520 --> 00:38:03,520
Speaker 1: Premier League in shots from outside the box and have

834
00:38:03,960 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 1: the second fewest from inside the eighteen yard box. So

835
00:38:07,400 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 1: against the Southampton team that yeah, I mean, I'll admit

836
00:38:09,880 --> 00:38:11,919
Speaker 1: I was kind of wrong about them early on the season.

837
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 1: Now they'll fall off in January and then they'll become

838
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:16,080
Speaker 1: horrible once again, but just like they do every single

839
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,480
Speaker 1: year under Hassen Hutle. But I think this is the

840
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:21,560
Speaker 1: type of match that, you know, even if Wolves goes ahead,

841
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,480
Speaker 1: I mean Southampton, let's give them some credit. They've gone

842
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 1: behind against Chelsea, they came back and won. They went

843
00:38:26,760 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 1: behind against two goals against Leeds and they came back

844
00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:31,319
Speaker 1: and won. They went behind against Lesser and they came

845
00:38:31,360 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 1: back and won. So like this team is showing a

846
00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:37,120
Speaker 1: lot of resilience. So you know, Wolves isn't gonna press

847
00:38:37,160 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: them as much as you know other teams will. I mean,

848
00:38:39,600 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 1: they were nineteenth and past per defensive action last season,

849
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,839
Speaker 1: so with Southampton being the worst team blanket pressure so

850
00:38:44,840 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 1: far in the Premier League, I don't think Wolves is

851
00:38:46,800 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: really going to capitalize that on that. But I do

852
00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: expect Wolves to control out of the possession but being

853
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: their own final third. So I'm gonna play Southampton drawn

854
00:38:55,000 --> 00:38:56,120
Speaker 1: O bet at plus one.

855
00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:00,759
Speaker 3: Fifty, Anthony, you are targeting the total here, Yeah, a

856
00:39:00,840 --> 00:39:03,440
Speaker 3: version of a total, A version of a wolve's over both.

857
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:06,040
Speaker 2: Teams to score, yes, minus one twenty. This really comes

858
00:39:06,040 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 2: down to Wolves. You know they fail to score once again,

859
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 2: and they clearly have a striker problem. I'm wondering if

860
00:39:11,680 --> 00:39:15,000
Speaker 2: you won't see Sasa who they just signed, Kazlisic they

861
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:17,920
Speaker 2: just signed up from Stuttgart. A good striker, gets his

862
00:39:17,960 --> 00:39:20,880
Speaker 2: head on the ball, decent with his feet as well.

863
00:39:21,640 --> 00:39:23,879
Speaker 2: I think he could be okay for Wolves. I think

864
00:39:23,880 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 2: he's better than Raoul Now who looks pretty well cooked.

865
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:29,160
Speaker 2: I think they're a striker away from actually improving quite

866
00:39:29,160 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: a bit offensively. And they've produced now almost six expected

867
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:34,239
Speaker 2: goals and have just two goals to show for it,

868
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,719
Speaker 2: and so goals are coming for this Wolves attack. At

869
00:39:36,760 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 2: some point they are going to put one away or two.

870
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:40,759
Speaker 2: And what better opponent to do that against than the

871
00:39:40,760 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 2: Saints team who loves to press and will still concede

872
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: big scoring chances. As we saw even in their win

873
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:48,200
Speaker 2: against Chelsea, Sterling had a couple of chances. Hard's got

874
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,000
Speaker 2: in behind, but his angle was too tight, like there

875
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,560
Speaker 2: were chances for Chelsea to get at them, and I

876
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,760
Speaker 2: think there will be more of those coming and Saints again,

877
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:59,360
Speaker 2: the attack showing some signs of life, and the numbers

878
00:39:59,360 --> 00:40:01,760
Speaker 2: a little cheap. I'm surprised I'm only minus one twenty

879
00:40:01,760 --> 00:40:04,120
Speaker 2: for a competitive match, that's totally two and a half.

880
00:40:04,480 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 2: So I like that.

881
00:40:06,000 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 3: The twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday is Anthony's Aston

882
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:12,520
Speaker 3: Villa plus four to seventy five at Bet three six

883
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,399
Speaker 3: five hosting Man City minus two seventy five. The draw

884
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 3: here five to one. This could be Stephen Gerrard's swan

885
00:40:20,160 --> 00:40:23,200
Speaker 3: song if they get pasted by City. I don't really

886
00:40:23,239 --> 00:40:25,239
Speaker 3: have much else to say about us and Villa than

887
00:40:25,239 --> 00:40:27,080
Speaker 3: I haven't already said on other episodes, which is that

888
00:40:27,280 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 3: they just they reek of Everdon from two years ago

889
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:34,560
Speaker 3: when they had one hundred center midfielders. I guess it

890
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:37,080
Speaker 3: was three or four years ago now, and they had

891
00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:39,640
Speaker 3: all these big ticket players and they all kind of

892
00:40:39,680 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 3: do the same thing well, and it's going to fall

893
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,560
Speaker 3: on the manager to pick the right eleven and sometimes

894
00:40:44,600 --> 00:40:46,359
Speaker 3: he's gonna get it right, sometimes he's gonna get it wrong,

895
00:40:46,360 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 3: and Girard has got it wrong more often than not lately.

896
00:40:50,040 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 3: Three wins I believe in their last eighteen or nineteen

897
00:40:52,640 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 3: Premier League matches. Their last six wins, I'll remind you

898
00:40:56,120 --> 00:40:58,440
Speaker 3: guys all again their last six Premier League wins two

899
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 3: against Everdon Brighton burned, he Leeds norch This is not

900
00:41:01,840 --> 00:41:03,720
Speaker 3: a good soccer team right now, and they are taking

901
00:41:03,760 --> 00:41:07,759
Speaker 3: on early Holland and Man City and boy betting it

902
00:41:07,880 --> 00:41:12,000
Speaker 3: under when he's trucking a hat tricks for fun, I'll

903
00:41:12,000 --> 00:41:13,600
Speaker 3: be there. It's under two and a half is plus

904
00:41:13,640 --> 00:41:15,439
Speaker 3: one sixty two, and that's where I'm going.

905
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:19,919
Speaker 2: I love it personally. I think it's you know, look,

906
00:41:20,239 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 2: I'm not even gonna say the words Holland regression, but like, yeah,

907
00:41:23,280 --> 00:41:24,799
Speaker 2: the guy's a good finisher, but he's not gonna finish

908
00:41:24,800 --> 00:41:26,759
Speaker 2: it this right up forever. I'm only gonna say it

909
00:41:26,960 --> 00:41:29,000
Speaker 2: like every other week. I'll mix it in because I

910
00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:30,439
Speaker 2: could say it every single week for like the next

911
00:41:30,440 --> 00:41:31,880
Speaker 2: two months. And he's gonna keep scoring a lot of

912
00:41:31,880 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 2: goals because he's very good. But I'm have nothing on

913
00:41:34,920 --> 00:41:37,439
Speaker 2: this game. I don't want the Villa syndicate. We're about

914
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,640
Speaker 2: to file for bankruptcy, have to a couple more losses.

915
00:41:40,320 --> 00:41:44,080
Speaker 2: But they looked absolutely dreadful today and they should be

916
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,120
Speaker 2: better at home. You'd like to see, you know. I mean,

917
00:41:46,120 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 2: they played him at the end of last season and

918
00:41:48,200 --> 00:41:51,720
Speaker 2: honestly did an excellent job. The first hour of shutting

919
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:54,359
Speaker 2: out cities chances and then getting looking dangerous on the counter.

920
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:56,759
Speaker 2: Coatino was the best player on the pitch. I don't

921
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:58,719
Speaker 2: think that's gonna be the case on on Saturday.

922
00:41:58,920 --> 00:42:00,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, not much else to say that, So let's move

923
00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,719
Speaker 3: to Sunday. Brighton minus one twenty of their odds on

924
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:07,000
Speaker 3: favorites against Leicester City, who we are recording this on

925
00:42:07,000 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 3: Wednesday night. Leicester City Manchester United has yet to be played.

926
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:12,840
Speaker 3: Leicester is plus three fifty going to the Amex that

927
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:16,040
Speaker 3: draw plus to forty. Brighton lost two fold. That was

928
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 3: sad for Grand Potter and his boys, but there's nothing

929
00:42:19,640 --> 00:42:22,320
Speaker 3: really alarming about it. It was a weird deflected goal to

930
00:42:22,719 --> 00:42:25,319
Speaker 3: tie it, and you know it's gonna happen. I think

931
00:42:25,600 --> 00:42:27,839
Speaker 3: Potter was was He was a little harder on his

932
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,320
Speaker 3: boys than I was. Just there. But yeah, like I

933
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:32,600
Speaker 3: just don't really have too many concerns here. I think

934
00:42:32,600 --> 00:42:36,000
Speaker 3: the number is too expensive Brighton. I'll see. Let's see

935
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:37,919
Speaker 3: what happens with Leicester because they are actually a team

936
00:42:37,960 --> 00:42:40,839
Speaker 3: where how they look and how they play in terms

937
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,000
Speaker 3: of like effort and if they're on the same page

938
00:42:43,120 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 3: does matter right now because of what's going on with

939
00:42:45,960 --> 00:42:50,920
Speaker 3: transfers and the manager basically walking the plank. So we'll

940
00:42:50,960 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 3: see it.

941
00:42:51,680 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 1: Wasn't first manager fired though.

942
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 3: No they I cannot believe that.

943
00:42:55,080 --> 00:42:57,919
Speaker 2: But that bad beat there, really, that was a bad beat. Yeah,

944
00:42:58,120 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 2: So the opening schedule was too hard.

945
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,719
Speaker 3: And their manager was too honest. So while I'm staying

946
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 3: away from this one, both of you guys are on

947
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:06,720
Speaker 3: the same side. BJ.

948
00:43:07,040 --> 00:43:08,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love Brighton and minus one fifteen I've then

949
00:43:08,960 --> 00:43:11,200
Speaker 1: projected around minus one thirty, so I'm getting a little

950
00:43:11,239 --> 00:43:15,240
Speaker 1: value there, you know, Lester, Now that they've sold for Fauna,

951
00:43:15,520 --> 00:43:17,960
Speaker 1: how is this defense going to get better as we

952
00:43:18,040 --> 00:43:20,920
Speaker 1: go along throughout the season. They were sixteenth and expected

953
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: goals allowed last season, fourteenth and big scoring chances allowed,

954
00:43:24,080 --> 00:43:27,839
Speaker 1: sixteenth in POC centuries allowed. Playing a Brighton team that

955
00:43:28,120 --> 00:43:30,240
Speaker 1: has looked good like Toro the FIRS, I mean, obviously

956
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:31,960
Speaker 1: they've won a lot of matches, but seven point eight

957
00:43:32,000 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 1: expected goals for five point four against they've looked impressive.

958
00:43:35,480 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 1: They've been able to control possession, especially against some of

959
00:43:39,360 --> 00:43:41,960
Speaker 1: these you know, lower tier sides. And I mentioned on

960
00:43:41,960 --> 00:43:45,279
Speaker 1: a couple episodes ago Brighton against bottom half the table

961
00:43:45,280 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 1: teams last year, which I think we'd all would agree

962
00:43:47,560 --> 00:43:49,719
Speaker 1: that Lester is a bottom half of the table team

963
00:43:49,760 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 1: at this current state. Brighton was you know, fourteen expected

964
00:43:53,480 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 1: goals for seven and a half against last year, so

965
00:43:55,360 --> 00:43:58,839
Speaker 1: they're very, very impressive at home against lower sides. So

966
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:01,720
Speaker 1: I have no issue taking them here at minus one fifteen.

967
00:44:01,719 --> 00:44:03,440
Speaker 1: They should be able to control possession. You know, te

968
00:44:03,480 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 1: Leman's who knows if he plays he might be leaving

969
00:44:06,239 --> 00:44:11,320
Speaker 1: to a mystery club before you know the match on Sunday.

970
00:44:11,760 --> 00:44:14,240
Speaker 1: And the way Lester, I mean, the way they actually

971
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 1: were successful last year than where they were early in

972
00:44:17,200 --> 00:44:19,640
Speaker 1: the season is they were able to control the midfield

973
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,160
Speaker 1: against some some weaker teams. But that's not going to

974
00:44:22,239 --> 00:44:25,960
Speaker 1: happen here against Brighton, who's been doing a tremendous job

975
00:44:25,960 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 1: with Cacedo and Gross and other guys at being able

976
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,200
Speaker 1: to actually control the midfield press. Well, it looks like

977
00:44:33,200 --> 00:44:35,560
Speaker 1: the loss of Asuma isn't really that big of a

978
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:39,080
Speaker 1: loss for them. So yeah, I'm I'm playing Brighton minus

979
00:44:39,080 --> 00:44:41,600
Speaker 1: one fifteen here. I mean, this is and I know

980
00:44:41,640 --> 00:44:44,319
Speaker 1: Anthony'll probably mention it too, but I mean Brighton has

981
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 1: been incredible on set pieces the last two years. Lester

982
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 1: obviously the worst team against set pieces last year, so

983
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:52,000
Speaker 1: a lot of advantages for Brighton all over the pitch.

984
00:44:52,040 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 1: Here and Lester, we'll see if we can get a

985
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 1: better number on them. I'm hoping that they beat United

986
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,320
Speaker 1: and that like Brighton comes down to minus one five

987
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 1: even money somewhere around there. But I don't see Brendan

988
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,040
Speaker 1: Rodgers outmanaging Graham Potter in this one.

989
00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,560
Speaker 3: Anthony, you are also on Brighton. It is worth noting

990
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:12,400
Speaker 3: that we're recording this Wednesday night. The transfer Winsdow closes

991
00:45:12,680 --> 00:45:15,600
Speaker 3: twenty four hours from when we are recording on Wednesday night,

992
00:45:16,080 --> 00:45:17,000
Speaker 3: So good.

993
00:45:16,880 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 1: Look to our friend for Britzio.

994
00:45:18,880 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 2: I don't think Tielman's is commy in the team.

995
00:45:20,760 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 1: It's a busy day for our friend for Britzio.

996
00:45:22,840 --> 00:45:28,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, for Britzio Romano freend of wondering, wonder of wonderful fame, Anthony,

997
00:45:28,840 --> 00:45:30,480
Speaker 3: what do you have here Brighton and Leicester?

998
00:45:30,840 --> 00:45:33,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean bgn aroon agreement. We model the game

999
00:45:33,640 --> 00:45:37,080
Speaker 2: close to one another. We both see that Brighton has

1000
00:45:37,120 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 2: a midfield edge that is ginormous in this match. It

1001
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 2: goes down to ball progression going back way to last

1002
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:46,160
Speaker 2: season and the biggest difference maker in this match is

1003
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:48,680
Speaker 2: that Brighton have had striker problems and Lester have had

1004
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: Jamie Vardi. But the Vardy party has either not kicked

1005
00:45:52,160 --> 00:45:56,960
Speaker 2: off or it's over because unless Vardi shows his shows

1006
00:45:57,000 --> 00:46:00,359
Speaker 2: me something in the next four to five matches, this

1007
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:03,840
Speaker 2: Lester team has nothing going forward. I mean, Madison is okay,

1008
00:46:04,080 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 2: Barnes is good, but there's nobody to get on the

1009
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:08,320
Speaker 2: end of it if they're going to start Varty in

1010
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 2: not Dhaka, and so I'm not sure where Brighton or

1011
00:46:13,680 --> 00:46:15,440
Speaker 2: Lester makes up for that edge that Brighton has in

1012
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:17,440
Speaker 2: the midfield. I mean, look at the ball progression numbers.

1013
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:20,040
Speaker 2: You've got a team who couldn't stop teams from getting

1014
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:21,840
Speaker 2: int their own penalty area last year, which was Lester,

1015
00:46:22,680 --> 00:46:24,319
Speaker 2: and we talked about set pieces being a big part

1016
00:46:24,360 --> 00:46:27,120
Speaker 2: of their defense of issues, but they just didn't stop

1017
00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:30,360
Speaker 2: the ball well. Indeedy not being there hurt at times,

1018
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 2: but Tilamans doesn't really do that much ball winning anyway.

1019
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:36,480
Speaker 2: Dewsbury Hall is very mediocre, so there's not much to

1020
00:46:36,600 --> 00:46:39,160
Speaker 2: like about Lester. I think Brighton bosses this match and

1021
00:46:39,160 --> 00:46:41,799
Speaker 2: it comes down to Brighton finishing their chances, and you

1022
00:46:41,840 --> 00:46:43,600
Speaker 2: know I'll bet on them to do that all the time.

1023
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:46,719
Speaker 2: And look, I think Leads are better than Lester and

1024
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:48,960
Speaker 2: Brighton were just minus one ten at home against Leads

1025
00:46:49,400 --> 00:46:52,480
Speaker 2: and now they're the same number against the worst team.

1026
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:54,040
Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm not going to.

1027
00:46:54,040 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 2: Bet it until after Thursday. We'll see what happens with Lester.

1028
00:46:56,920 --> 00:47:01,280
Speaker 2: Always like more data, more information, but I'll be on ninety.

1029
00:47:02,040 --> 00:47:05,479
Speaker 1: Madison is questionable to play United too, so if he's out,

1030
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 1: I mean yeah, just all over Brighton.

1031
00:47:08,080 --> 00:47:11,280
Speaker 3: And finally, the tenth and final match on the Premier

1032
00:47:11,360 --> 00:47:15,320
Speaker 3: League docket that we will talk about man Chester United

1033
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 3: plus one fifty at home host Arsenal plus one sixty

1034
00:47:19,640 --> 00:47:21,960
Speaker 3: two at Bet six fight the draw plus two fifty.

1035
00:47:22,360 --> 00:47:24,720
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna let you go, beja, what plan should

1036
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 1: Arsenal be underdogs here? On what planet? So let's talk

1037
00:47:28,560 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: about this because we're obviously recording before the last United match.

1038
00:47:31,640 --> 00:47:33,680
Speaker 1: You know, if we if we had what happened to

1039
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:35,839
Speaker 1: that match, you know, the obviously make a difference here.

1040
00:47:35,840 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 1: But United have since really since the start of last year,

1041
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,920
Speaker 1: have been bad. I mean I don't I've been saying

1042
00:47:43,960 --> 00:47:46,760
Speaker 1: it over and over again. I've said it every way possible,

1043
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:50,360
Speaker 1: but they it's the same players. You can keep changing

1044
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:52,080
Speaker 1: the manager all you want. When you have a group

1045
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:54,360
Speaker 1: of players that don't want to press as a team,

1046
00:47:54,600 --> 00:47:56,000
Speaker 1: that don't really want to play as a team and

1047
00:47:56,000 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 1: just want to play as individuals, it just doesn't work.

1048
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:03,640
Speaker 1: So if we go from when old Gunnishar was fired

1049
00:48:04,000 --> 00:48:06,600
Speaker 1: after the match against Watford last year, and that's essentially

1050
00:48:06,640 --> 00:48:08,600
Speaker 1: around the same time that Arsenal kind of made their

1051
00:48:08,640 --> 00:48:11,399
Speaker 1: little turn and started getting this thing moving forward after

1052
00:48:11,400 --> 00:48:15,360
Speaker 1: a bad start to last season, Arsenal in about thirty

1053
00:48:15,400 --> 00:48:18,440
Speaker 1: matches is at plus twenty seven and a half expected

1054
00:48:18,440 --> 00:48:22,719
Speaker 1: gold differential. Today United is at plus three with the

1055
00:48:22,719 --> 00:48:24,560
Speaker 1: same group of players. Yes, there's a couple that have

1056
00:48:24,640 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 1: came in, but really the same group of players has

1057
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 1: been plus three expected gold differential in a thirty match

1058
00:48:30,320 --> 00:48:33,480
Speaker 1: sample size. That is not good. How is that team

1059
00:48:33,600 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 1: a slight favorite at home over the hottest team in

1060
00:48:36,520 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 1: the Premier League right now who's won five straight And

1061
00:48:38,680 --> 00:48:40,719
Speaker 1: I get it. People are gonna say, well, Arsenal hasn't

1062
00:48:40,760 --> 00:48:42,880
Speaker 1: been tested yet. Well, if we look at the matches

1063
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:44,600
Speaker 1: that Arsenal played towards the end of last season, they

1064
00:48:44,600 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 1: played City tough, they beat Chelsea, they played Liverpool tough.

1065
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,160
Speaker 1: They are were way better than those matches at the

1066
00:48:50,160 --> 00:48:53,320
Speaker 1: beginning of the season when they got obviously pasted by Liverpool,

1067
00:48:53,400 --> 00:48:56,319
Speaker 1: pasted by Cities. So you know the two matches they

1068
00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:59,279
Speaker 1: did play against United last season, you know the XG

1069
00:48:59,480 --> 00:49:01,719
Speaker 1: was pretty close in both of them, So you can

1070
00:49:01,719 --> 00:49:05,280
Speaker 1: make that argument for United. But this match is basically

1071
00:49:05,320 --> 00:49:09,520
Speaker 1: suggesting that Arsenal would just be an ever so slight

1072
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:13,080
Speaker 1: favorite on a neutral field. How is that possible? No,

1073
00:49:13,320 --> 00:49:16,160
Speaker 1: they would be a plus one twenty plus one ten

1074
00:49:16,239 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 1: favorite on a neutral field. So I have Arsenal plus

1075
00:49:19,280 --> 00:49:21,640
Speaker 1: one thirty seven five thirty eight agrees with me. They

1076
00:49:21,640 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 1: have Arsenal at forty two percent. So I'm taking my

1077
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:27,160
Speaker 1: gunners for the first time this year and it feels

1078
00:49:27,400 --> 00:49:28,839
Speaker 1: feels tremendous.

1079
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,839
Speaker 3: Pallace the Gunners brighton Brentford be Chas.

1080
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:36,000
Speaker 2: One thing I'll say is Liverpool was just minus one seventy.

1081
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 1: They opened, They went up to minus thirty and now.

1082
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 2: Minus one fifty at the close. Arsenal's was essentially plus.

1083
00:49:42,680 --> 00:49:44,320
Speaker 1: Ten cents worse than Liverpool.

1084
00:49:44,360 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 2: I don't a full goal basically, yeah, full goal, I'm

1085
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 2: not so sure that so mean, I'm definitely not betting

1086
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:52,640
Speaker 2: a United here, but we'll see about Arsenal. We'll see

1087
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:53,520
Speaker 2: how United looks tomorrow.

1088
00:49:53,760 --> 00:49:55,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean a big United win, Beach, you just

1089
00:49:55,760 --> 00:49:58,160
Speaker 3: said you wanted less win for your Brighton price, but

1090
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:00,759
Speaker 3: you know you get you get a rousing performance and

1091
00:50:00,800 --> 00:50:02,360
Speaker 3: all of a sudden, you could get our All of a.

1092
00:50:02,320 --> 00:50:05,160
Speaker 1: Sudden their plus one twenty five and I'm getting Arsenal

1093
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:09,360
Speaker 1: and it's crazy. Plus mind is dumb, You're going to

1094
00:50:09,400 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 1: catch up to United? Like when is that the match?

1095
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:14,080
Speaker 2: The match does kind of set up in a similar way.

1096
00:50:14,200 --> 00:50:16,120
Speaker 2: Arsenal gets to have the ball and United gets to

1097
00:50:16,160 --> 00:50:18,680
Speaker 2: play without it and look to counter and use their

1098
00:50:18,719 --> 00:50:21,080
Speaker 2: pace in space, and I think, like that could I mean,

1099
00:50:21,080 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 2: that's been when United's been good. That's been their bread

1100
00:50:24,160 --> 00:50:27,359
Speaker 2: and butter, even in the old A era. So yeah,

1101
00:50:27,360 --> 00:50:29,400
Speaker 2: I mean they can make that case, but it's a

1102
00:50:29,440 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 2: tough case to make.

1103
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:32,279
Speaker 1: The match in April. I mean, Arsenal was plus one

1104
00:50:32,400 --> 00:50:36,200
Speaker 1: fifteen at home against United, so it's not like this

1105
00:50:36,280 --> 00:50:37,000
Speaker 1: is that drastic.

1106
00:50:37,200 --> 00:50:39,000
Speaker 2: I believe we all had our. I definitely I had

1107
00:50:39,080 --> 00:50:39,799
Speaker 2: Arsenal in that match.

1108
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,879
Speaker 1: Yeah, that match. Yeah, Yeah, So you know, Ronaldo's staying

1109
00:50:42,880 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 1: at the club after just furiously trying to look.

1110
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 2: I think Ronaldo is super sub is like a perfect role.

1111
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:52,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean he hates it, but yeah, perfect role.

1112
00:50:52,920 --> 00:50:55,920
Speaker 3: All right, that wraps up the Premier League. Onto the

1113
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:59,480
Speaker 3: boon this legua I'll go first year because it's pretty obvious.

1114
00:51:00,560 --> 00:51:05,920
Speaker 3: Mines plus two ten against Anthony's Clodebach off a one

1115
00:51:06,000 --> 00:51:08,000
Speaker 3: one drug against Byron last weekend.

1116
00:51:08,600 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 2: That was incredible. It's pretting. I still haven't come down

1117
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:14,000
Speaker 2: off of the emotional high of that match. It was incredible.

1118
00:51:14,040 --> 00:51:17,239
Speaker 3: Yon Summer was was literally he said up, he said up, he.

1119
00:51:17,200 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 2: Set record for sa. I mean it was. I watched

1120
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:22,879
Speaker 2: I watched the match with one of my good friends

1121
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,800
Speaker 2: who's a Byron fan, and uh, I mean every save

1122
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:28,560
Speaker 2: I was just I was just screaming. I was, you know,

1123
00:51:29,239 --> 00:51:30,880
Speaker 2: I was yelling like this man is the goat, like

1124
00:51:30,920 --> 00:51:32,840
Speaker 2: he's a legend, Like you can't beat him, He's a

1125
00:51:32,840 --> 00:51:36,440
Speaker 2: brick wall. Uh And and look it was like dejavoo

1126
00:51:36,440 --> 00:51:38,920
Speaker 2: all over again for Byron. So Gladbach getting that point,

1127
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:41,719
Speaker 2: we covered the plus two with ease, and we were

1128
00:51:41,760 --> 00:51:43,719
Speaker 2: so close on eleven to one. I mean it was

1129
00:51:44,120 --> 00:51:45,560
Speaker 2: it was a lot of fun. I can't wait to

1130
00:51:45,560 --> 00:51:46,799
Speaker 2: do it again in February.

1131
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,680
Speaker 3: Anyways, I'll be on. I'll be fading Gladbach here. I

1132
00:51:49,760 --> 00:51:52,040
Speaker 3: like Mines plus two ten say it every week?

1133
00:51:52,040 --> 00:51:52,480
Speaker 1: Can you not?

1134
00:51:52,920 --> 00:51:55,839
Speaker 3: Every week? One of the best defenses of Germany last

1135
00:51:56,040 --> 00:51:59,200
Speaker 3: last season that is starting to show again this season.

1136
00:51:59,280 --> 00:52:01,879
Speaker 3: Five goals out so far but only two point eighty

1137
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:04,880
Speaker 3: three expected goles against. They should be able to handle

1138
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:07,760
Speaker 3: this clod back attack and don't trust the glodbyt defense

1139
00:52:07,800 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 3: to keep Mines out. So back on Mines BJ your

1140
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:12,440
Speaker 3: favorite bet in the Bundesliga.

1141
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:14,680
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like lipstick you and money on the road

1142
00:52:14,800 --> 00:52:17,560
Speaker 1: at Frankfurt. So we mean, we've talked about Frankfort. If

1143
00:52:17,600 --> 00:52:19,000
Speaker 1: you haven't listened, to make sure to go listen to

1144
00:52:19,000 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 1: our Champions League preview that went out Wednesday morning. I mean,

1145
00:52:23,239 --> 00:52:25,319
Speaker 1: we talked about Frankfort. They were just bad in the

1146
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,600
Speaker 1: Bundesliga last year, and the theory is is that they

1147
00:52:28,600 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: had this crazy Europa League run they go and win

1148
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:32,239
Speaker 1: it and they basically just said, ah, the heck with

1149
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:35,360
Speaker 1: the Bundesliga, who really cares. We're way out of getting

1150
00:52:35,440 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 1: any type of European place, so we'll just put it

1151
00:52:37,320 --> 00:52:40,200
Speaker 1: on the back burner. Well, that's not really the case

1152
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:44,000
Speaker 1: because if we take their performances up until March ninth,

1153
00:52:44,040 --> 00:52:46,720
Speaker 1: which is when the knockout stage started for the Europa League,

1154
00:52:47,239 --> 00:52:50,279
Speaker 1: Frankfort was at a minus ten expected gold differential in

1155
00:52:50,400 --> 00:52:52,560
Speaker 1: twenty five matches and we're allowing one point seven to

1156
00:52:52,600 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 1: two expected goals per match and they finished the season

1157
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:56,960
Speaker 1: with a minus seven and a half expected gold difrenials,

1158
00:52:56,960 --> 00:52:59,759
Speaker 1: so they're actually a positive expected golden frenchal during their

1159
00:52:59,840 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 1: year ROPA League run. They were just so bad at

1160
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 1: the beginning of the season. And Leipsig, I mean, under

1161
00:53:04,600 --> 00:53:08,480
Speaker 1: Tedesco since he's took taken over there at plus one

1162
00:53:08,480 --> 00:53:11,600
Speaker 1: point zero one expected gold deferential per ninety minutes. That

1163
00:53:11,880 --> 00:53:15,280
Speaker 1: is elite if they can continue that for an entire season,

1164
00:53:15,400 --> 00:53:17,719
Speaker 1: and under him they're lying under one expected goal per

1165
00:53:17,760 --> 00:53:20,880
Speaker 1: match in the wide open Bundesliga. They also have our

1166
00:53:20,920 --> 00:53:23,840
Speaker 1: guy we already mentioned, Timo wernerback who makes their attack

1167
00:53:24,120 --> 00:53:27,120
Speaker 1: so so much better. And this is attack that was

1168
00:53:27,160 --> 00:53:29,920
Speaker 1: second in big scoring chances last season went against the

1169
00:53:29,960 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 1: Frankfurt defense that was fifteenth and big scoring chances allowed.

1170
00:53:33,200 --> 00:53:36,760
Speaker 1: Also kind of hilarious these when both meetings last season

1171
00:53:37,080 --> 00:53:42,080
Speaker 1: were draws. Leipzig one unexpected goals three point eight point seven,

1172
00:53:42,600 --> 00:53:46,399
Speaker 1: So I have Leipziga at around minus one thirty five.

1173
00:53:46,560 --> 00:53:48,839
Speaker 1: So I love them at even money on the road

1174
00:53:48,880 --> 00:53:49,560
Speaker 1: against Frankfurt.

1175
00:53:50,280 --> 00:53:52,600
Speaker 3: Anthony, what do you have for us in Germany?

1176
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's a goodbye low on Leipstig. I mean, they

1177
00:53:54,440 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 2: did beat Wolfsburg last week, but they have struggled to

1178
00:53:56,480 --> 00:54:00,840
Speaker 2: start the season. I am taking an under three Verde Bremen.

1179
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:04,240
Speaker 2: I mean they've had a crazy run to start the season.

1180
00:54:05,120 --> 00:54:09,040
Speaker 2: Ten goals four and ten goals against in four matches,

1181
00:54:09,280 --> 00:54:12,880
Speaker 2: about two and a half per match. That automatically signals

1182
00:54:12,880 --> 00:54:15,120
Speaker 2: a huge, like five alarm fire in my head where

1183
00:54:15,120 --> 00:54:17,719
Speaker 2: I'm like, okay, wait a second, what's going on. They've

1184
00:54:17,719 --> 00:54:20,160
Speaker 2: scored a ton of shots from outside the box, a

1185
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,280
Speaker 2: lot of low XG chances and a lot of incredible

1186
00:54:22,280 --> 00:54:25,840
Speaker 2: finishes into the top corner. They're attack like they're a

1187
00:54:25,880 --> 00:54:28,880
Speaker 2: decent team, but they're not on that level and I

1188
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:30,680
Speaker 2: think they're going to struggle to continue to put u

1189
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:33,560
Speaker 2: those numbers. Regression is coming of course, only four point

1190
00:54:33,640 --> 00:54:36,440
Speaker 2: three expected goals for only four point four against, so

1191
00:54:36,480 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 2: their defense is run really poor as well. They get Bochum,

1192
00:54:39,960 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 2: who is going through the second year syndrome in the

1193
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,359
Speaker 2: Bundesliga right now, really struggling to create chances. I think

1194
00:54:45,360 --> 00:54:47,320
Speaker 2: they're going to continue to do that. Verte Bremen's defense

1195
00:54:47,360 --> 00:54:51,160
Speaker 2: is actually pretty good and they held Dortmund up pretty well.

1196
00:54:51,200 --> 00:54:52,520
Speaker 2: So I like the under three here.

1197
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:54,960
Speaker 3: At La Liga. Now, Anthony, yeah.

1198
00:54:54,840 --> 00:54:57,319
Speaker 2: We'll just keep firing. I mean, Soci Dodds worse than

1199
00:54:57,360 --> 00:54:59,200
Speaker 2: at Leti, but when you put in the home field advantage,

1200
00:54:59,239 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 2: I make them a favorite. They're a pick them in

1201
00:55:01,200 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 2: this match at home. I understand they lost Alexander Isak,

1202
00:55:05,239 --> 00:55:08,240
Speaker 2: who is our boy, who had a great start for Newcastle,

1203
00:55:08,280 --> 00:55:10,279
Speaker 2: but I just can't get there on the number ad

1204
00:55:10,320 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 2: Lettie also with a look ahead spot. Now with the

1205
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:16,400
Speaker 2: Champions League rolling up to town next week, you know,

1206
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:18,440
Speaker 2: I'm finally excited to talk about that next week. But

1207
00:55:19,080 --> 00:55:20,839
Speaker 2: I like Soci dot at home here. I make them

1208
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:22,560
Speaker 2: a slightly bigger favor than they are. It's not a

1209
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:24,680
Speaker 2: huge edge, but not a great board for me in

1210
00:55:24,760 --> 00:55:25,400
Speaker 2: the league.

1211
00:55:25,480 --> 00:55:28,000
Speaker 3: So I like Soci DoD Perhaps the game of the

1212
00:55:28,000 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 3: season Mayorka and Gerona the draw plus two twenty. I

1213
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,760
Speaker 3: like combine these two teams have produced five expected goals

1214
00:55:34,760 --> 00:55:37,520
Speaker 3: in six matches. Yeah, all three of Girona's goals on

1215
00:55:37,560 --> 00:55:39,920
Speaker 3: the season came in the same match, a three one

1216
00:55:39,960 --> 00:55:43,719
Speaker 3: win at Catafe. We know, Majorca is just they're not

1217
00:55:43,760 --> 00:55:46,359
Speaker 3: gonna do much with the ball and they're just gonna

1218
00:55:46,360 --> 00:55:48,919
Speaker 3: sit back, and these two teams could basically just line

1219
00:55:49,000 --> 00:55:50,640
Speaker 3: up on either side of the half. It's stare at

1220
00:55:50,680 --> 00:55:53,279
Speaker 3: each other for ninety minutes and walk away with a

1221
00:55:53,400 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 3: nil nil. So I am on the draw here Majorca

1222
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:59,399
Speaker 3: and Gerona plus two twenty at at three six five BJ,

1223
00:55:59,600 --> 00:56:00,760
Speaker 3: what do you I can Spain.

1224
00:56:01,000 --> 00:56:04,279
Speaker 1: I'm going for another relegation six pointer, Michael, I'm gonna

1225
00:56:04,320 --> 00:56:07,479
Speaker 1: go with valid lead against al Maria. So it's funny

1226
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:10,480
Speaker 1: you mentioned rial sociate Dad Anthony, because they just signed

1227
00:56:10,480 --> 00:56:14,480
Speaker 1: al marias striker Umar Sadik, who is everything to that.

1228
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:16,880
Speaker 1: He's the man, he is the man. He's he was

1229
00:56:16,920 --> 00:56:19,839
Speaker 1: sixteen goals in the Second Division, two goals already this year.

1230
00:56:20,080 --> 00:56:22,080
Speaker 1: I mean, he's just he was everything to al Maria

1231
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:24,640
Speaker 1: and he's gone now. So I think you're getting valid

1232
00:56:24,719 --> 00:56:26,440
Speaker 1: lead at a pretty good price here at plus one

1233
00:56:26,480 --> 00:56:28,200
Speaker 1: twenty five. And you know, if we look at their

1234
00:56:28,200 --> 00:56:31,160
Speaker 1: expected gold differential in the Sagoonda Division last season. I

1235
00:56:31,200 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 1: mean Valid Lead was plus five point four per ninety.

1236
00:56:34,000 --> 00:56:36,120
Speaker 1: Al Maria was plus zero point four to five, so

1237
00:56:36,360 --> 00:56:39,200
Speaker 1: valad lead was slightly better. And I don't think we

1238
00:56:39,239 --> 00:56:41,839
Speaker 1: can read too much into what Valid Lead has done

1239
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,560
Speaker 1: so far this season because they've played via Realcivia in Barcelona,

1240
00:56:44,960 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 1: so and they've you know, haven't been very good, haven't

1241
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,600
Speaker 1: created over one expected goal in each of those matches.

1242
00:56:49,600 --> 00:56:52,439
Speaker 1: But this is a different opponent, it's a fellow promotion team.

1243
00:56:53,160 --> 00:56:54,920
Speaker 1: I mean, I have Valid Lead projected at minus one

1244
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:59,239
Speaker 1: fifteen after factoring Sadik being gone from Al Marias, So

1245
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:01,000
Speaker 1: I'm going to take the price on Valid the lead

1246
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,279
Speaker 1: at plus one twenty five. And this is also a

1247
00:57:03,320 --> 00:57:05,760
Speaker 1: Monday afternoon game. For all you people out there.

1248
00:57:05,719 --> 00:57:09,280
Speaker 2: That would push back on one thing, that's Ramazani eraser

1249
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:12,480
Speaker 2: for al Maria. He is underrated and he is a

1250
00:57:12,560 --> 00:57:15,640
Speaker 2: king because he scored. He had a great game against

1251
00:57:15,640 --> 00:57:20,240
Speaker 2: Sevilla in that win, including the opening goal. So Ramazani

1252
00:57:20,280 --> 00:57:22,440
Speaker 2: and Sadik both are kind of like the whole attack.

1253
00:57:22,720 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 2: So they lose half their attack now and I think

1254
00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:26,960
Speaker 2: they're gonna struggle at this point, but Ameria, and thank

1255
00:57:26,960 --> 00:57:29,000
Speaker 2: you for that cash against Sevilla last weekend.

1256
00:57:29,120 --> 00:57:33,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, Siria, ah bj Yeah, I'm gonna go with Verona,

1257
00:57:33,200 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 1: even money against sam Doria. I mean Verona. We talked

1258
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:38,760
Speaker 1: about them quite a bit last season. They were drastic

1259
00:57:38,800 --> 00:57:42,240
Speaker 1: over performers offensively, sixty five goals off fifty two expected,

1260
00:57:42,240 --> 00:57:44,160
Speaker 1: but they were also pretty unlucky defensively, I mean they

1261
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:47,160
Speaker 1: allowed fifty nine goals off forty nine expected. Now, a

1262
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:49,320
Speaker 1: lot of that over performance offensively had to do with

1263
00:57:49,560 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 1: Giovanni Simioni, Diego Simioni's son, who's now at Napoli. But

1264
00:57:53,880 --> 00:57:56,760
Speaker 1: through four matches I mean Verona, they've they faced Napoli, Bologna,

1265
00:57:56,760 --> 00:57:59,440
Speaker 1: atolant and Poli. They have a minus four actual gold

1266
00:57:59,440 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 1: differentially minus one expected gold differential. And in terms of matchups,

1267
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:04,680
Speaker 1: I mean taking on Sandoria this it doesn't really get

1268
00:58:04,760 --> 00:58:08,120
Speaker 1: much better for Verona because Verona was actually third in

1269
00:58:08,200 --> 00:58:10,960
Speaker 1: Sirie A last season in pass per defensive action, pressure

1270
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 1: success rate and ball recoveries and that hasn't changed this

1271
00:58:13,920 --> 00:58:16,120
Speaker 1: season because through four matches they're the number one team

1272
00:58:16,120 --> 00:58:18,840
Speaker 1: in Syria A in pastes per defensive action. Sampdoria was

1273
00:58:18,880 --> 00:58:21,600
Speaker 1: eighteenth in pressure success rate allowed last season, and in

1274
00:58:21,680 --> 00:58:24,120
Speaker 1: the two meetings against Verona, Verona had a pass per

1275
00:58:24,160 --> 00:58:26,480
Speaker 1: defensive action of seven point seven and six point eight

1276
00:58:26,520 --> 00:58:28,280
Speaker 1: in sam Doria. I mean they had one of the

1277
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:30,920
Speaker 1: worst expected gold deferentials in Syria a minus twenty one

1278
00:58:30,960 --> 00:58:33,440
Speaker 1: point five. They love the third most big scoring chances,

1279
00:58:33,640 --> 00:58:35,280
Speaker 1: and I mean they're the bottom five team in pretty

1280
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:39,400
Speaker 1: much every single metric, both offensively and defensively. I mean

1281
00:58:39,640 --> 00:58:43,080
Speaker 1: even Harry Winks can't save them. So I have Verona

1282
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:45,920
Speaker 1: projected actually at like around minus one seventy, so I

1283
00:58:45,960 --> 00:58:48,479
Speaker 1: liked them mclus one point five at bet three six.

1284
00:58:48,520 --> 00:58:49,760
Speaker 3: Five Antiday market.

1285
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:51,880
Speaker 2: The market's reacting heavily. I mean they lost Simeoni. They

1286
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,920
Speaker 2: also lost car Pari Barack, like their whole team had

1287
00:58:54,960 --> 00:58:56,800
Speaker 2: to be sold or loaned at least because they broke.

1288
00:58:57,520 --> 00:59:00,480
Speaker 2: So they're kind of in free fall at the But

1289
00:59:00,960 --> 00:59:03,600
Speaker 2: their actually numbers actually haven't been terrible to start the season,

1290
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:05,200
Speaker 2: so it kind of a proof that you know one

1291
00:59:05,280 --> 00:59:07,640
Speaker 2: or two players, even if it's someone like Simeone who

1292
00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:09,960
Speaker 2: was their whole attack, they don't move the needle as

1293
00:59:10,040 --> 00:59:12,720
Speaker 2: much as maybe we think. As far as my best

1294
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:15,480
Speaker 2: bet here, I'm going to an under Lazzio and Napoli

1295
00:59:15,600 --> 00:59:17,960
Speaker 2: under two point seven to five Sampdorias stealing that late

1296
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:22,280
Speaker 2: result today just a classic underspot here. Napoli's attack looked

1297
00:59:22,280 --> 00:59:25,640
Speaker 2: dominant early in the season, everybody went crazy bonkers, and

1298
00:59:25,680 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 2: now they've played back to back sleeper games and the

1299
00:59:28,360 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 2: total is a little high here, I make it two

1300
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 2: and a half, So I'll take two and three quarters.

1301
00:59:32,400 --> 00:59:34,400
Speaker 2: Not a ton in this. I mean Latzio's attack is

1302
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 2: run incredibly well. Now they're facing a defense that did

1303
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:39,040
Speaker 2: not conceide big scoring chances at all last year. They

1304
00:59:39,040 --> 00:59:42,320
Speaker 2: were excellent there. That was the whole Lotsio thing. Napoli

1305
00:59:42,360 --> 00:59:45,280
Speaker 2: did lose cool of Bali okay, fair, but still a

1306
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:47,920
Speaker 2: pretty good defense and the attack not nearly as good

1307
00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:50,440
Speaker 2: as the early season would suggest.

1308
00:59:50,600 --> 00:59:53,200
Speaker 3: At league, Oh, Anthony, let's go it with you first.

1309
00:59:53,400 --> 00:59:55,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to take Troy plus a half plus

1310
00:59:55,720 --> 00:59:57,840
Speaker 2: one ten at home. Had a terrible start of the season,

1311
00:59:57,880 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 2: lost their first three matches, but they started to turn

1312
01:00:00,640 --> 01:00:03,040
Speaker 2: the corner a little bit. Their performances have improved. They

1313
01:00:03,200 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 2: still think this is a good by low and it's

1314
01:00:04,720 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 2: a great sell high on ren ren Ran incredibly well

1315
01:00:08,120 --> 01:00:11,560
Speaker 2: last season. They one played like their ext numbers were

1316
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:14,960
Speaker 2: way better than you'd expect based on past seasons. I

1317
01:00:14,960 --> 01:00:17,000
Speaker 2: think they just had a really hot season. Sometimes teams

1318
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 2: have a really good year and they also finish at

1319
01:00:19,800 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 2: an extraordinary rate in league on an attack, and that

1320
01:00:23,200 --> 01:00:25,400
Speaker 2: is starting to come down to earth, and we've already

1321
01:00:25,440 --> 01:00:28,320
Speaker 2: seen it now. Through five matches, they're just slightly better

1322
01:00:28,320 --> 01:00:30,360
Speaker 2: than league average. That doesn't make them good enough to

1323
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:33,600
Speaker 2: be a road favorite against Troy, so I like Troy.

1324
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:35,920
Speaker 1: Home bij I'm gonna go with to lose drawn O

1325
01:00:36,040 --> 01:00:40,040
Speaker 1: Bett at even money against Clermont Foot a nice relegation

1326
01:00:40,120 --> 01:00:42,400
Speaker 1: six pointer here. I mean Claimont Foot's been a business

1327
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:46,080
Speaker 1: bold through five matches and they look destined for relegation.

1328
01:00:46,280 --> 01:00:50,840
Speaker 1: They have three point one expected goals for fourteen point

1329
01:00:50,880 --> 01:00:53,760
Speaker 1: four against, both of which are dead last and league on.

1330
01:00:54,160 --> 01:00:56,880
Speaker 1: The biggest problem is offensively lost their main goal scoring

1331
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,200
Speaker 1: threat in this transferred, I mean Muhammed Bayo's at LIL.

1332
01:00:59,280 --> 01:01:01,080
Speaker 1: He've had fourteen goals and a point five to two

1333
01:01:01,160 --> 01:01:03,880
Speaker 1: XG per ninet minute scoring rate last season. Nobody else

1334
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 1: on the team had over a point twenty five x

1335
01:01:06,320 --> 01:01:08,880
Speaker 1: G per ninetamus scoring rate, and then you know, you

1336
01:01:09,240 --> 01:01:11,440
Speaker 1: look at where they were at defensively last season they

1337
01:01:11,440 --> 01:01:13,800
Speaker 1: were bottom five and expected goals allowed, big scoring chance

1338
01:01:13,800 --> 01:01:16,560
Speaker 1: allowed and box entries allowed to loose was pretty dominant

1339
01:01:16,600 --> 01:01:19,680
Speaker 1: in league the second division in France. They had a

1340
01:01:19,720 --> 01:01:23,640
Speaker 1: plus seven point two expected gold deferential per ninety minutes

1341
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:26,120
Speaker 1: to average around one point nine expected goals per ninety minus.

1342
01:01:26,120 --> 01:01:27,960
Speaker 1: Through the first five matches, they haven't been really that

1343
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:30,000
Speaker 1: bad for a newly promoted team, only a minus one

1344
01:01:30,000 --> 01:01:34,040
Speaker 1: point three non penalty expected gold differential. The main reason

1345
01:01:34,040 --> 01:01:36,760
Speaker 1: for that is they've been pressing opponents really well. Their

1346
01:01:36,760 --> 01:01:39,000
Speaker 1: pass per defensive action is eight point six and they

1347
01:01:39,040 --> 01:01:41,720
Speaker 1: forced thirty six high turnovers that both those are our

1348
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:44,760
Speaker 1: second in France. So I actually have them projected as

1349
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:46,800
Speaker 1: a slight favorite. So I like them on the drawnal

1350
01:01:46,880 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 1: betline at even money.

1351
01:01:48,360 --> 01:01:51,960
Speaker 3: And now we move on to our three leg underdog parlay.

1352
01:01:52,640 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 3: Our parlay from the mid week episode was Everdence Born

1353
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 3: Myth and then Leicester, so we have two draws and

1354
01:01:58,520 --> 01:02:00,280
Speaker 3: then one.

1355
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:01,880
Speaker 2: Hundred dog on the draw. Just you know it says

1356
01:02:01,880 --> 01:02:03,920
Speaker 2: we're onto something. I guess, yeah, exactly, but we never

1357
01:02:03,920 --> 01:02:05,720
Speaker 2: get the full win I mean that being said, we've

1358
01:02:05,720 --> 01:02:06,560
Speaker 2: had a profitable year.

1359
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:09,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, still profitable here, Anthony, you can go first. Yeah.

1360
01:02:09,720 --> 01:02:11,800
Speaker 2: I just talked about why I like Troy plus a half.

1361
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:13,680
Speaker 2: I like Troy on the money line as well, plus

1362
01:02:13,720 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 2: three forty at home. So they'll probably end in a draw,

1363
01:02:16,080 --> 01:02:19,040
Speaker 2: but I will take the plus a half cash if

1364
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:20,240
Speaker 2: that does occur. But I think this is worth a

1365
01:02:20,280 --> 01:02:22,240
Speaker 2: shot on the money line. Again, it's just a very

1366
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:25,280
Speaker 2: overrated Rent team going on the road. Difficult spot for

1367
01:02:25,320 --> 01:02:27,760
Speaker 2: them as well, coming off the midweek where they once

1368
01:02:27,760 --> 01:02:29,919
Speaker 2: again stole a light win. I'm going to take Troy

1369
01:02:29,960 --> 01:02:30,560
Speaker 2: home about three.

1370
01:02:30,520 --> 01:02:31,320
Speaker 1: Forty for me.

1371
01:02:31,440 --> 01:02:34,880
Speaker 3: Crystal Palace plus two to seventy five against Newcastle on

1372
01:02:34,920 --> 01:02:37,560
Speaker 3: the road Crystal Palace in Newcastle. I think everyone on

1373
01:02:37,600 --> 01:02:40,680
Speaker 3: this podcast would be an agreement that at worse are

1374
01:02:41,360 --> 01:02:45,040
Speaker 3: Piers they are. There are some pretty good arguments we

1375
01:02:45,080 --> 01:02:48,920
Speaker 3: made that Crystal Palace is better than Newcastle and Newcastle

1376
01:02:49,000 --> 01:02:51,360
Speaker 3: is dealing with a ton of injuries. Bruno gimmerag is out,

1377
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:54,680
Speaker 3: Callum Wilson, Allency, maximm They're all out for this match,

1378
01:02:55,400 --> 01:02:58,200
Speaker 3: and I think the market is just overreacting to a

1379
01:02:58,240 --> 01:03:01,520
Speaker 3: pretty good performance from Newcastle against Liverpool in which they

1380
01:03:01,560 --> 01:03:03,880
Speaker 3: lost two to one on a late winner. Meanwhile, the

1381
01:03:03,920 --> 01:03:06,479
Speaker 3: opposite kind of happened with Palace giving up that league

1382
01:03:06,480 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 3: goal to draw from a winning position. We talk about it.

1383
01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:10,760
Speaker 3: This has been a main theme on the podcast at

1384
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:12,320
Speaker 3: the market just still has a caught up on how

1385
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:14,760
Speaker 3: good this Crystal Palace team. So in no world should

1386
01:03:14,760 --> 01:03:17,200
Speaker 3: they be plus two seventy five against this Newcastle team

1387
01:03:17,200 --> 01:03:17,880
Speaker 3: even on the road.

1388
01:03:18,120 --> 01:03:20,880
Speaker 1: Bj what about you minds plus two ten on the

1389
01:03:20,960 --> 01:03:23,760
Speaker 1: road at Glodbock. You already mentioned it, Michael Love mines

1390
01:03:23,760 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 1: against this Cloudbock team. The two teams Matt towards the

1391
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:27,280
Speaker 1: end of last season, it was a one to one

1392
01:03:27,360 --> 01:03:29,760
Speaker 1: draw Minds one on XG two point two to one

1393
01:03:29,800 --> 01:03:32,040
Speaker 1: point six, and it's just a really good matchup for

1394
01:03:32,080 --> 01:03:35,080
Speaker 1: a team that creates a lot of big scoring chances. Offensively.

1395
01:03:35,120 --> 01:03:38,000
Speaker 1: They were seventh and the Bundesliga last year at Gladbach

1396
01:03:38,080 --> 01:03:40,720
Speaker 1: was a attached feed Defensively, I mean Yon Summer, Yeah,

1397
01:03:40,760 --> 01:03:43,440
Speaker 1: he had a historic performance against spier Munich, but I

1398
01:03:43,440 --> 01:03:45,360
Speaker 1: mean he's going to regress at some point, and you know,

1399
01:03:45,400 --> 01:03:48,120
Speaker 1: facing a team that is just incredible defensively, like you've

1400
01:03:48,120 --> 01:03:51,439
Speaker 1: already mentioned, Michael. It's a really good price on Minds,

1401
01:03:51,520 --> 01:03:54,560
Speaker 1: especially after last week against Leverkusen losing three to nothing

1402
01:03:54,600 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 1: and XG basically being even so a goodbyelow spot here

1403
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:00,240
Speaker 1: for Mines after coming off a loss could sell high

1404
01:04:00,240 --> 01:04:02,480
Speaker 1: spot on Glodbach coming off that one to one draw

1405
01:04:02,480 --> 01:04:04,880
Speaker 1: against Byron. So minds plus two ten for me.

1406
01:04:05,000 --> 01:04:08,720
Speaker 3: Mine's Troy and Crystal pals fifty to one. Should all

1407
01:04:08,760 --> 01:04:12,120
Speaker 3: three of those legs cash and they will Anthony your

1408
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:14,040
Speaker 3: favorite bet in the Premier League this weekend.

1409
01:04:14,400 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, Wolves in Southampton, both teams to score, Yes minus

1410
01:04:17,120 --> 01:04:20,240
Speaker 2: won twenty first BTTs of the year. For me, Wolves

1411
01:04:20,320 --> 01:04:22,960
Speaker 2: attack has produced almost six expected goals they only have

1412
01:04:23,000 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 2: two this year. There's going to be some by Low

1413
01:04:25,440 --> 01:04:26,959
Speaker 2: in that and I think it's built in the number

1414
01:04:26,960 --> 01:04:29,160
Speaker 2: a little bit. They're a little bit undervalued for this

1415
01:04:29,160 --> 01:04:31,880
Speaker 2: both team to score given that it's a pretty competitively

1416
01:04:31,920 --> 01:04:33,800
Speaker 2: lined match and the total set up two and a half.

1417
01:04:33,800 --> 01:04:36,400
Speaker 2: So I'm a little surprised it's this Low and Saints

1418
01:04:37,400 --> 01:04:40,640
Speaker 2: they have shown some attacking potential. I won't say that

1419
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 2: they've been a great attack at this point in the season,

1420
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:45,360
Speaker 2: but again we talk about Jose Saw and bailing out

1421
01:04:45,360 --> 01:04:48,160
Speaker 2: this Wolves defense. I do think the both teams will

1422
01:04:48,160 --> 01:04:50,400
Speaker 2: get on the board here and in this match.

1423
01:04:50,440 --> 01:04:53,480
Speaker 3: I'm going with Bournemouth plus two eighty and boy are

1424
01:04:53,480 --> 01:04:56,840
Speaker 3: they terrible one point four to seven total expected goals

1425
01:04:56,880 --> 01:05:00,960
Speaker 3: through five games. They haven't scored since Week one, I believe,

1426
01:05:01,120 --> 01:05:05,680
Speaker 3: and they're one game removed from losing a combined sixteen

1427
01:05:05,760 --> 01:05:08,480
Speaker 3: nil across three matches, including a nine to nothing match

1428
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:11,800
Speaker 3: that got their manager sack. So naturally I'm picking them

1429
01:05:11,840 --> 01:05:13,840
Speaker 3: as my favorite bet this week because look at the

1430
01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:17,040
Speaker 3: price on Noting of Forst who are if Bournemouth are

1431
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:19,680
Speaker 3: the twentieth best team in the Premier League, Donning of

1432
01:05:19,720 --> 01:05:21,760
Speaker 3: Forest right now are the nineteenth best and they're odds

1433
01:05:21,800 --> 01:05:23,920
Speaker 3: on at home. They shouldn't be odds on against any

1434
01:05:23,920 --> 01:05:26,200
Speaker 3: other team in the Premier League. So getting plus two

1435
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 3: eighty to go against Nottingham Forest is how I'm looking

1436
01:05:28,920 --> 01:05:32,400
Speaker 3: at this rather than a bet on Bournemouth BJ What about.

1437
01:05:32,160 --> 01:05:35,440
Speaker 1: You Brighton minus one fifteen at home against Leicester. This

1438
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:37,600
Speaker 1: is a tremendous matchup for a Brighton team that has

1439
01:05:37,640 --> 01:05:41,080
Speaker 1: been fantastic at home at bottom half the table sides

1440
01:05:41,160 --> 01:05:45,120
Speaker 1: last season. Fourteen expected goals for seven point five expected

1441
01:05:45,160 --> 01:05:47,560
Speaker 1: goals against against at home against teams in the bottom

1442
01:05:47,600 --> 01:05:50,200
Speaker 1: half the table, which I would classify Wester as right

1443
01:05:50,240 --> 01:05:52,440
Speaker 1: now you look at Also the last year, Lester one

1444
01:05:52,440 --> 01:05:54,520
Speaker 1: of the worst set piece teams in the Premier League,

1445
01:05:54,560 --> 01:05:57,320
Speaker 1: go out over twenty expected goals off of set pieces.

1446
01:05:57,360 --> 01:05:59,200
Speaker 1: Brighton over the last two seasons has been one of

1447
01:05:59,200 --> 01:06:01,960
Speaker 1: the most efficient team tams off of set pieces. Brighton

1448
01:06:01,960 --> 01:06:03,960
Speaker 1: also should be able to dominate the midfield. In this

1449
01:06:04,040 --> 01:06:07,360
Speaker 1: last season in terms of progressive passes and dribbles they

1450
01:06:07,400 --> 01:06:10,480
Speaker 1: were top six both offensively and defensively, Lester in the

1451
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:13,360
Speaker 1: bottom twelve and the vermillion in both those categories. Also,

1452
01:06:13,440 --> 01:06:16,720
Speaker 1: Lester just sold their best defender, Wesley Folfana to Chelsea,

1453
01:06:16,840 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 1: so I don't think this defense that was sixteenth and

1454
01:06:19,840 --> 01:06:22,320
Speaker 1: expected goals allowed last season is going to get much better.

1455
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:24,920
Speaker 1: So I have Brighton projected at minus one thirty, so

1456
01:06:25,000 --> 01:06:26,360
Speaker 1: I love them at minus one fifteen.

1457
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:28,439
Speaker 3: And then I'll do it for another episode of Wonder

1458
01:06:28,480 --> 01:06:31,400
Speaker 3: Goal presented by bet three sixty five for b J Cunningham,

1459
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:33,800
Speaker 3: Brantony Dubundo, Michael Lee buff Best of luck with your

1460
01:06:33,840 --> 01:06:34,640
Speaker 3: bets this weekend.