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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

2
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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're up for running a game.

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Speaker 2: So smooth, so sweet.

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Speaker 3: Splendid sisting just glorious.

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Speaker 4: Ex procution, guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort,

6
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Speaker 4: four thousand percent of the time.

7
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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of mind, bog buddy, And

8
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Speaker 3: that's why you see nor beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 3: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 3: Shut up, I'm trying again.

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Speaker 1: The all it's left too, the wide eyed drill pibus,

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Speaker 1: How Old Earth Big Happens.

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Speaker 2: Hello everybody, and welcome to Wondergol, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 2: from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff and

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Speaker 2: joining me as always are my two colleagues of friends,

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Speaker 2: Anthony the and bj Cunningham. And we've got ourselves a

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Speaker 2: very interesting slate of soccer to get to this weekend.

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Speaker 2: But there is only one place to start. That's what

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Speaker 2: the Manchester Derby and eleven thirty Am kickoff on Sunday

22
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Speaker 2: between Manchester City Their minus two to sixty hosting Manchester

23
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Speaker 2: United plus seven to fifty and the draws four to

24
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Speaker 2: one on the three way money line here. The city

25
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Speaker 2: comes into this into this match in weird form for them.

26
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Speaker 2: I would say they're not in bad form by any stretch,

27
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Speaker 2: but they did lose and then escape Goodison Park with

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Speaker 2: a lucky win in their last two Premier League matches. Meanwhile,

29
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Speaker 2: United has not lost since January third, but six of

30
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Speaker 2: those eleven matches are draws and some weird ones at that.

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Speaker 2: United is got a plus five expect a gold differential

32
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Speaker 2: over the last three matches, So it does look like

33
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Speaker 2: Ralph Ragnik is starting to put a team together here

34
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Speaker 2: that is good, like they are legitimately good. However, the

35
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Speaker 2: two of you guys are on separate sides of this

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Speaker 2: argument on just how much to read into these United results. BJ,

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Speaker 2: You're not buying it, so I'll let you start.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, legitimately good, I think is a stretch, and I

39
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Speaker 1: think the reason for that is because we've talked about

40
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Speaker 1: it a lot. But the opponents that United has played

41
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Speaker 1: over since Rangnick has took over, west Ham has basically

42
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Speaker 1: been the best team they've played in the Premier League.

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Speaker 1: They got their first taste at playing an elite side

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Speaker 1: against Athletico in the Champions League, and boy did they

45
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Speaker 1: look really bad for a majority of the match. They

46
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Speaker 1: were able to actually hold sixty two percent possession, but

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Speaker 1: we're only able to muster nine shots and point five

48
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Speaker 1: expected goals. On the flip side, Athletico really should have

49
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Speaker 1: walked with when they hit the post twice, they created

50
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Speaker 1: one point three expected goals on the United's defense and

51
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Speaker 1: it was just one defensive mistake that United capitalized on

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Speaker 1: on They're basically their only shot inside the eighteen yard box.

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Speaker 1: So it really wasn't a resounding like, oh my gosh,

54
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Speaker 1: United really deserved that draw. No, they really should have

55
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Speaker 1: lost to Athletico. And you know, under Rangnicky they do

56
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Speaker 1: have a plus point eight XG differential per ninety minutes,

57
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Speaker 1: which is good. You know, considering the opponents they've played,

58
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Speaker 1: it has been pretty easy. But relatively, you know, you

59
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Speaker 1: have to ask yourself a right, what are you supposed

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Speaker 1: to do under that? You know, during that time frame.

61
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Speaker 1: The problem is in this matchup is they've had the

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Speaker 1: benefit of holding a large share of the possession under

63
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Speaker 1: rangnick averaging around fifty six percent possession in their thirteen

64
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Speaker 1: matches under him. Well, now, how are they going to

65
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Speaker 1: play basically sitting deep for two thirds of this match,

66
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Speaker 1: while City holds the ball in their end, because that's

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Speaker 1: what they did the first time. They held the ball

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Speaker 1: for sixty seven percent of the time basically in Man

69
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Speaker 1: United's own final third. They won the match two nothing

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Speaker 1: one unexpected goals two two point six. United only had

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Speaker 1: five shots three touches in the penalty area in one

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Speaker 1: box entry at home against City. Even if we look

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Speaker 1: at the performances from United and City and compare them

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Speaker 1: to when Rangnick took over, like I just mentioned, you

75
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Speaker 1: minched United plus point eight extra differential per ninety man

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Speaker 1: City's plus one point sixty seven over that same timeframe.

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Speaker 1: So the discrepancy between these two clubs I think is

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Speaker 1: still incredibly massive. And I do not think that United

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Speaker 1: is set up to defend or sixty minutes of this

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Speaker 1: match and try. Obviously they have the talent to hit

81
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Speaker 1: City on the counter, that's definitely true, but you're asking

82
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Speaker 1: a lot from them to sit back and defend for

83
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Speaker 1: that long when we've seen how shaky they've been defensively

84
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Speaker 1: against really good clubs. So I love City minus one

85
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Speaker 1: and a half at plus one ten, I have the

86
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Speaker 1: spread projector on minus one point and I think They're

87
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Speaker 1: just leaps and bounds better than Manchester United. So give

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Speaker 1: me the Citizens minus one and a half at home.

89
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Speaker 2: I don't think there's much of an argument to be

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Speaker 2: made that City is in another level compared to United.

91
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Speaker 2: But I guess the question here is has the market

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Speaker 2: adjusted enough to the improvements that we've seen, I guess,

93
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Speaker 2: especially over the last four weeks. So it'd say that

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Speaker 2: United and once again it came against Wideford a mil

95
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Speaker 2: mill draw, but they looked, they looked good, they looked

96
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Speaker 2: in sync going forward, completely different animal against City. But

97
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Speaker 2: I just wonder if if it has the market adjusted

98
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Speaker 2: enough to United's improvements.

99
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Speaker 3: Anthony, Yeah, I really don't think so. You know, just

100
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Speaker 3: two weeks ago we sat here and Spurs were in

101
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Speaker 3: very similar position with very similar odds, you know, catching

102
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Speaker 3: one and a half goals on the road. And I've

103
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Speaker 3: got Tottenham and United rated pretty similarly, and I bet

104
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Speaker 3: Tottenham then, and I'm betting United here. We joked about

105
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Speaker 3: it on the last week's pod that it was going

106
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Speaker 3: to be a really good or I thought it was

107
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Speaker 3: going to be a really good United spot and I

108
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Speaker 3: just think this is a good matchup and I understand everything.

109
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Speaker 3: BJ said about the first meeting is very true. United

110
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Speaker 3: probably had their worst ninety minutes of the season. And

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Speaker 3: I know they got embarrassed by Liverpool and Watford, but

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Speaker 3: I actually thought the City match was more embarrassing because

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Speaker 3: you mentioned it one box Entry City had I believe

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Speaker 3: they completed ninety three or plus percent of their passes

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Speaker 3: in the second half. There was just no resistance from United.

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Speaker 3: But that United team didn't have Paul Pogba, it didn't

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Speaker 3: have Jayden Sancho, and I think the addition of those

118
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Speaker 3: two is really what's driving the improvements. And I understand

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Speaker 3: they didn't play well against at Letti on the road

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Speaker 3: and they had a lot of the ball and they

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Speaker 3: couldn't break them down, and I think that's still a

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Speaker 3: legitimate issue for this a team, but they don't really

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Speaker 3: have that same problem on Saturday or on Sunday rather

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Speaker 3: because the City's gonna have the ball and they're gonna

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Speaker 3: have a lot of the ball. And I actually think

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Speaker 3: we haven't really seen United get tested without the ball

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Speaker 3: under Ragnik yet, but I believe, based on Ragnik's history,

128
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Speaker 3: that it's going to be relatively effective in the defensive

129
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Speaker 3: pressing kind of system. So I think what's going to

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Speaker 3: happen is that similar to the Tottenham match, City is

131
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Speaker 3: going to play their high line and when they lose

132
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Speaker 3: the ball, it's going to be Sancho, It's going to

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Speaker 3: be pogbut sending in passes in behind trying to get

134
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Speaker 3: you know, whether it's Bernanz or whether it's Sancho or

135
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Speaker 3: whether it's Ronaldo, They're going to have space to run

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Speaker 3: into here, and I think it could work. And I

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Speaker 3: think they're going to get one one goal here and

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Speaker 3: keep this game very competitive and maybe even get two

139
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Speaker 3: and go for the win. I you know, Tottenham exposed

140
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Speaker 3: some weaknesses in City, and I'm not comparing canaan Son

141
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Speaker 3: as a counter attacking duo to Rinaldo and Sancho, and

142
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Speaker 3: but when you add in guys like Pogbun and Fernandez,

143
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Speaker 3: this is a very lethal counter attacking team who has

144
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Speaker 3: created at least one expected goal in eighth straight matches

145
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Speaker 3: and they've created two and you know, almost the majority

146
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Speaker 3: of them. And so I'm happy to take it plus

147
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Speaker 3: one and a half. And United have had their issues

148
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Speaker 3: and defensive transition as well, but I don't think that's

149
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Speaker 3: much of a problem against City, because they're slow and

150
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Speaker 3: build up, they will have the ball and United. You know,

151
00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:28,760
Speaker 3: the one thing that's concerning is the potential set piece issues.

152
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Speaker 3: But otherwise I think City is going to have shot,

153
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Speaker 3: but Gon have chances, but they haven't been firing on

154
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Speaker 3: all cylinders recently, and so I think, you know, last

155
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Speaker 3: seven hundred minutes of soccer, United's third and expected goals

156
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Speaker 3: four just sixth and goals four. So could get a

157
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Speaker 3: couple of bounces their way and make this a competitive game,

158
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Speaker 3: which is what I really think is going to happen.

159
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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm leaning towards what you're saying, Anthony, just in

160
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Speaker 2: a different way. I think that the draw won't ever

161
00:07:52,760 --> 00:07:55,120
Speaker 2: be out of question in this game because I think

162
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Speaker 2: that United will score or be a threat to score

163
00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,240
Speaker 2: at all times and go ahead. You can apply the

164
00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:04,480
Speaker 2: same thing to City and City matches are they're not

165
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Speaker 2: even though they don't draw much because they always win

166
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Speaker 2: if against a good competition. The environment's pretty good for

167
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Speaker 2: a draw because of how City likes to play like,

168
00:08:13,720 --> 00:08:16,920
Speaker 2: they take forever on the ball and really really like

169
00:08:16,960 --> 00:08:19,360
Speaker 2: to pick their spots. So a one one or two

170
00:08:19,440 --> 00:08:21,920
Speaker 2: two here is probably how I'm looking. Maybe a live

171
00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:24,640
Speaker 2: draw if there's an early goal or something. But I

172
00:08:24,720 --> 00:08:26,520
Speaker 2: just have a feeling this isn't much of an edge,

173
00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:28,080
Speaker 2: but I do have a feeling that this one ends

174
00:08:28,120 --> 00:08:31,240
Speaker 2: as a draw. All right. That's that's the Manchester Derby.

175
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Speaker 2: Now let's move on to Leicester and Leeds seven thirty

176
00:08:34,160 --> 00:08:39,080
Speaker 2: am on Saturday morning. Jesse Marsh is in town to

177
00:08:39,440 --> 00:08:41,360
Speaker 2: take the home of Leeds United, who were plus three

178
00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:43,760
Speaker 2: ten on the road at Leicester minus one twenty five.

179
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Speaker 2: The draw here is plus three ten as well. This

180
00:08:46,360 --> 00:08:50,880
Speaker 2: is a really interesting situation, I think because you're Leeds United.

181
00:08:51,040 --> 00:08:53,680
Speaker 2: Like the outpouring of love that was shown for Marcelo

182
00:08:53,720 --> 00:08:57,280
Speaker 2: biels on his way out was quite touching. He obviously

183
00:08:57,360 --> 00:08:59,120
Speaker 2: made a huge impact on the club, in the city

184
00:08:59,160 --> 00:09:02,440
Speaker 2: and the fans. People. We're upset that the team had

185
00:09:02,480 --> 00:09:07,720
Speaker 2: sacked him despite them cratering into the relegation scrap, and

186
00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:09,800
Speaker 2: that just goes to show you just how beloved he was.

187
00:09:10,160 --> 00:09:12,600
Speaker 2: And then they replaced him with a guy who, Look,

188
00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,199
Speaker 2: there's no such thing as another Marcelo BIELSA Jesse Marsh

189
00:09:16,240 --> 00:09:18,440
Speaker 2: is not that far off. Like he doesn't play that

190
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:20,880
Speaker 2: crazy man to man pressing system, but he's going to

191
00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,960
Speaker 2: have the team pressing at all at all times. So's

192
00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:25,839
Speaker 2: it's just very funny. I wonder if if the thinking

193
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,840
Speaker 2: there was okay, well, we'll kind of get like the

194
00:09:27,960 --> 00:09:29,480
Speaker 2: I don't want to call him a poor man's Bielsa,

195
00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:32,600
Speaker 2: I guess, but that's the best way I can put it,

196
00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:34,760
Speaker 2: is like we'll get someone who this team can they

197
00:09:34,760 --> 00:09:37,040
Speaker 2: can play his style because they played a much more

198
00:09:37,760 --> 00:09:40,040
Speaker 2: you know, intense version of it, and this way it's

199
00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:42,040
Speaker 2: like kind of like a weaning off of it. But

200
00:09:42,880 --> 00:09:45,240
Speaker 2: it'll be interesting. But I don't think Jesse Marsh, from

201
00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:46,680
Speaker 2: what we saw at Leipzig, is going to come in

202
00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,400
Speaker 2: here and turn this defense around like that. And Lesser

203
00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:52,120
Speaker 2: City is not the type of team that I want

204
00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:54,360
Speaker 2: to take on at a number like this, I would much.

205
00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:57,200
Speaker 2: I need a much bigger number on leads to get involved.

206
00:09:57,440 --> 00:09:59,679
Speaker 2: And I'm not gonna lay with Lester either because their

207
00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:03,360
Speaker 2: inco and so it'll be passing. But it is it'll

208
00:10:03,400 --> 00:10:06,240
Speaker 2: be interesting to watch what Jesse Marsh does the American

209
00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:10,440
Speaker 2: Jesse Marsh does this with this side, BJ, you are

210
00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:12,680
Speaker 2: forecasting some goals here, huh.

211
00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,760
Speaker 1: Yeah. The Marsh Higher. When it first came out, I

212
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:18,000
Speaker 1: was just like what like.

213
00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:20,679
Speaker 4: It made no sense to me from the aspect of like,

214
00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:23,680
Speaker 4: Leads you defense has been so horrific and you bring

215
00:10:23,720 --> 00:10:26,760
Speaker 4: in a guy who basically turned one of the best

216
00:10:26,760 --> 00:10:28,800
Speaker 4: defenses in the Bundesliga into one of the worst.

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Speaker 1: So I was like, doesn't really make sense. But the

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Speaker 1: one I thought about it more and it's more reading.

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Speaker 1: I was like, Okay, it makes sense. It's basically kind

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Speaker 1: of a little bit of a toned down version of

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Speaker 1: bl So it actually you know Leipzig, you know, obviously

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Speaker 1: ever a long period of time, they've been one of

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Speaker 1: the best pressing teams in Germany, but their passes per

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Speaker 1: defensive action was actually lower than Leads United this season.

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Speaker 1: But I'm not sure that he Jesse Marsh is the

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Speaker 1: guy to come in and save this Leads defense. They

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Speaker 1: might improve that, they might get more structure, like you said,

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Speaker 1: moving off that Manda Man pressing system. But this is

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Speaker 1: why Bielsa got fired. Over the last ten matches, twenty

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Speaker 1: four point eight expected goals and twenty two big scoring chances.

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Speaker 1: You can't survive in the Premier League just giving up

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Speaker 1: that much week in and week out. But Marsh at

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Speaker 1: Leipzig was lying around one point seven expected goals for

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Speaker 1: match and was near the bottom in the Bundeslig in

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Speaker 1: terms of big scoring chances allowed. So based on what

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Speaker 1: we saw at Leipzig, I'm not so sure he's ready

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Speaker 1: to come in and fix all of these defensive issues. Now.

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Speaker 1: Like I said, the intensity is probably gonna get turned

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Speaker 1: down a little bit. They're probably he's gonna provide more

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Speaker 1: defensive structure. You know, he might move him to a

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Speaker 1: four two to two two or a four to two

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Speaker 1: three one, something that you know helps out the back line,

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Speaker 1: but it's not gonna be an overnight change like we

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Speaker 1: saw at least the first couple of matches with Roy

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Speaker 1: Hodgson at Wofford, where he basically just you know, switched

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Speaker 1: the entire defense up to a four to four to

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Speaker 1: two and you saw more structure and a lot better

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Speaker 1: defensive performances out of out of Watford. But obviously that's

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Speaker 1: gone to the wayside. Lester, on the other hand, is

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Speaker 1: in a very interesting spot. They're pretty much secure in

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Speaker 1: the middle of the table. They got a nice win

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Speaker 1: over Burny on Tuesday that pretty much secured their their

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Speaker 1: mid table for the rest of the season. Their offense

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Speaker 1: is looking good, at one point four to five expected

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Speaker 1: goals for match over their last eight against some pretty

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Speaker 1: difficult competition City Liverpool twice, Tottenham, Brighton, west Ham Wolves

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Speaker 1: and Burnley. Their defense has been a little bit better

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Speaker 1: over the last three, only allowing two point four expected goals,

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Speaker 1: but they're still nineteenth and shots allowed for ninety minutes.

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Speaker 1: Well Leads, it's actually sixth offensively in that same category.

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Speaker 1: So with March coming in, you obviously okay, new manager bump,

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Speaker 1: but I don't think it's really going to help their

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Speaker 1: defensive issues. So I have three point five goals projected here,

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Speaker 1: so I like over three goals at minus one O

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Speaker 1: five and Anthony before we move on, I know you

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Speaker 1: don't particularly like this one from a betting perspective.

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Speaker 2: What are your two cents? I guess I'm Jesse Marsh,

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Speaker 2: your boy coming to Yorkshire.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I think it's two things. One and

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Speaker 3: this is the existential Leads question. It's how much of

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Speaker 3: their rise into the prem and then how much of

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Speaker 3: that you know, them getting you know, in the tenth

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Speaker 3: place last year and then falling down this year. How

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Speaker 3: much of that was Bielsa truly elevating the talent of

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Speaker 3: what is not a Premier League team, and I think

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Speaker 3: they have some guys who are legitimate Premier League players,

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Speaker 3: and you mentioned Rapina and Bamford and Calvin Phillips and

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Speaker 3: even Dan James, but you get down the list of

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Speaker 3: players and I start to wonder if this team just

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Speaker 3: not talented enough. I think it's a very real possibility

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Speaker 3: that we're going to find out here of whether or

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Speaker 3: not be Elsa was really working magic to get all

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Speaker 3: everything he could out of these players and they're just

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Speaker 3: going to fall off once he's gone. But on the

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Speaker 3: other hand, I actually think this is a good fit

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Speaker 3: for you know, Jesse Marsh and I think it's actually

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Speaker 3: arguably a better fit than Leipzig was. Leipzig had become

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Speaker 3: much more possession based. We're having the ball more less,

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Speaker 3: you know, pace and transition, and they were very much

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Speaker 3: a possession first with a lot of really skilled guys

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Speaker 3: who weren't necessarily these manic pressers you know, you think

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Speaker 3: of like Guysic and Kunku and Olmo and some of

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Speaker 3: their midfielders, you know, and mL Forsburg, like those guys

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Speaker 3: don't really are they're not really notoriously pressers as much

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Speaker 3: as they are people who are great with the ball

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Speaker 3: at their feet. Well, now he goes to a team

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Speaker 3: who should be comfortable pressing. So I think it'll be

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Speaker 3: really interesting from a fan and the tactical point of view,

299
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Speaker 3: and from betting point of view, I actually lean toward

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Speaker 3: Lester because I think BJ made a good point. You know,

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Speaker 3: they ran through a gauntlet here of really difficult games,

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Speaker 3: and I continue to believe that at some point this

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Speaker 3: defense is going to improve, and the offense is clearly

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Speaker 3: taking steps forward, and Pats and Doc has been amazing

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Speaker 3: and they have enough going forward, and then I think

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Speaker 3: the defense is going to come around, maybe, especially with

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Speaker 3: the set pieces. I mean, it's hard to be as

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Speaker 3: bad as they've been forever. So I lean toward Lester here.

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Speaker 3: But like you mentioned, if we also were still in charge,

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Speaker 3: I think I'd be all over Lester. But I'm just

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Speaker 3: not quite feeling it with the uncertainty with the new

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Speaker 3: manager and potential bounce they could get off of.

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Speaker 2: It in a game that will probably look very different

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Speaker 2: from Leeds. In Leicester Wolverhampton, they're plus one thirty five

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Speaker 2: at home, hosting Crystal Palace plus two forty five. The

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Speaker 2: draws plus two ten. But the most important number for

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Speaker 2: me is the over under here said it too, which

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Speaker 2: is telling me that bookmakers are expecting a low event game.

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Speaker 2: And I'm with it. These are two low event attacks

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Speaker 2: that are good at or the best strength is creating

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Speaker 2: big scoring chances, and they're going up against two respective

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Speaker 2: defenses that are good at preventing them. So I'm looking

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Speaker 2: at the draw here plus two ten. I think you're

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Speaker 2: looking at a just an absolute rock fight between Bruno

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Speaker 2: Laje and Patrick Vieira at ten am on Saturday. I

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Speaker 2: don't know how many people will be tuning into this

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Speaker 2: one with the other matches that are going on, So

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Speaker 2: that's where I'm going the draw plus two ten. Anthony,

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Speaker 2: you've started to turn around at Crystal Palace lately, though.

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Speaker 3: Just a little. You know, I don't think I was

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Speaker 3: ever out on Palace. I just don't think I was

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Speaker 3: ever in either. I think we have to go check

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Speaker 3: the tapes.

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Speaker 1: I was a little bit more something.

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Speaker 3: Please, Yeah, I did get well.

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Speaker 1: I wish you washed me back and forth.

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Speaker 3: You can't have pin a take on me. One take

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Speaker 3: I have had for the last month has been wolves overs.

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Speaker 3: We did not bet on Sunday, and they once again

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Speaker 3: overperformed defensively. But I'm fading Wolves here and I've been

341
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Speaker 3: looking for a good Wolves fate spot. Arsenal wasn't quite it,

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Speaker 3: west Ham wasn't quite it. But I think this is

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Speaker 3: the spot to do it. The last seven hundred minutes

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Speaker 3: of action eleven on eleven, Wolves have a minus point

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Speaker 3: three expected goal difference per ninety minutes, and they are

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Speaker 3: actually have a plus point six y four goal difference

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Speaker 3: per ninety that's a goal different and that's just absurd.

348
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Speaker 3: They've conceded at least one expected goal in their last

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Speaker 3: eight matches. So we talked about how okay, Wolves defense

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Speaker 3: is good and overperforming. They've regressed in the good part.

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Speaker 3: You know, they're just not good right now. And they

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Speaker 3: haven't been very good for the last month plus now,

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Speaker 3: conceiding more shots generally and not quite having the game

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Speaker 3: control they were having early in the season. Pallas have

355
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Speaker 3: generally been a bit unlucky over all. Their results in

356
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Speaker 3: close games have not been great. Every time there's been

357
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Speaker 3: a toss up game, it's kind of gone against them.

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Speaker 3: And they've had some great performances that have made up

359
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Speaker 3: for that. And there's a reason they're in eleventh, but

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Speaker 3: overall you'd expect them to be a little bit better

361
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Speaker 3: based on their numbers and the Wolves. You know, they

362
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Speaker 3: just conceded one point in expected goals to west Ham

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Speaker 3: and we've been talking about how bad this west Ham

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Speaker 3: attack has been. They can't get to ten shots in

365
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Speaker 3: any match. Well, they just put up one point eight

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Speaker 3: on Wolves. I think it's a pretty big red flag.

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Speaker 3: The first meeting between these two teams, I know it

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Speaker 3: was at Selhurs Park where Palace is a lot better,

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Speaker 3: but Palace thirteen shots to five. Palace won the game

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Speaker 3: two nil. It was a beatdown, really, I know I

371
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Speaker 3: had Wolves in that one had lost, so definitely a

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Speaker 3: tough one. But Palace has the better numbers across the

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Speaker 3: board all year and Wolves actually at home has been

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Speaker 3: pretty mediocre as well. They're sixth worst at the MALNU

375
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Speaker 3: this season and expected goal difference, so not quite the

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Speaker 3: huge home advantage you'd expect. And therefore I'm happy to

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Speaker 3: take Palace. I took them plus a quarter goal and

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Speaker 3: minus one ten. I like drawing a bet as well,

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Speaker 3: which I know Bja is going to talk more about.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree with you. I love Crystal Palace. John

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Speaker 1: on bet at plus one thirty five you mentioned it,

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Speaker 1: and I think it goes to kind of a larger

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Speaker 1: point on why we use expected goals and just use

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Speaker 1: them at nauseum on this podcast in our writing, and

385
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Speaker 1: this matchup right here is a perfect example of that.

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Speaker 1: Wolves on the season has allowed twenty one goals while

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Speaker 1: Crystal Palace is allowed thirty eight. So if we're just

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Speaker 1: looking at that on paper, we'd say, oh my gosh, Wolves,

389
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Speaker 1: is this incredible defense. It's way better than Palace. But

390
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Speaker 1: if we look at expected goals, Wolves thirty six point

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Speaker 1: seven allowed on the season, Crystal Palace only thirty one

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Speaker 1: point six. So and Palace is also top six and

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Speaker 1: pretty much every single defensive metric including pressing now, which

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Speaker 1: is big against Wolves who are below average team playing

395
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Speaker 1: through pressure. The Wolves offense, I you know, obviously against

396
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Speaker 1: Arsenal they had they scored on the one mistake from Gabrielle,

397
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,080
Speaker 1: and their offense is starting to show some improvements, but

398
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Speaker 1: only creating over one expected goal in three of their

399
00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:03,800
Speaker 1: life last fourteen matches is not something to ride home about,

400
00:19:04,080 --> 00:19:06,720
Speaker 1: and now seventeenth in expected goals, they're far too reliant

401
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:10,520
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, Michael, on big scoring chances, they currently

402
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:12,880
Speaker 1: only average around ten point two shots per ninety which

403
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,720
Speaker 1: is second to last in the Premier League. And they're

404
00:19:15,720 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 1: only right on point two three x g per shot,

405
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Speaker 1: which is eighth in the Premier League. So really, isn't

406
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 1: that impressive'm considering you're getting that few shots, your xcheper

407
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,439
Speaker 1: shot is still around the middle of the table. So

408
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Speaker 1: I agree with Anthony. I have this match projected really

409
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Speaker 1: really close to a pick them, so I love Chryst

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Speaker 1: Palastrano bet at a nice price of plus one thirty five.

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Speaker 2: All right, we'll move on aston Villa plus one thirty

412
00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 2: five hosting Southampton plus two ten. The draw here is

413
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:45,560
Speaker 2: plus two forty. The best way to beat Southampton is

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00:19:45,560 --> 00:19:48,920
Speaker 2: to be able to create big scoring chances, and aston

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Speaker 2: Villa does not do that. Southampton is sixteenth in preventing

416
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Speaker 2: big scoring chances, but acid Villas just nineteenth at creating them.

417
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Speaker 2: It's pretty clear that Steven Gerrard's trademark or the stand

418
00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,040
Speaker 2: he wanted to put on aston Villa in his first

419
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Speaker 2: You know, it's not a full season, but he wanted

420
00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 2: to get this defense sorted and he has a team

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00:20:05,720 --> 00:20:09,000
Speaker 2: playing a pretty low event style of soccer, and I

422
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Speaker 2: just think that Southampton, you are buying high here because

423
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:13,480
Speaker 2: they've been in such a good form. But I do

424
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Speaker 2: think that you're still getting a pretty good number plus

425
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Speaker 2: two ten against a team that is struggling to create

426
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 2: enough offense. I think to hang with Southampton, who I

427
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 2: do expect to be able to get on the board

428
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Speaker 2: here once or twice. So give me Southampton here as

429
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Speaker 2: an underdog. Anthony Villa Saints draw. Where are you looking

430
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Speaker 2: for this one? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I lean toward the under You know, Southampton the attack

432
00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:41,760
Speaker 3: has been on fire lately. Yeah, they've been rolling. I

433
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 3: mean they might be outside the top four teams, probably

434
00:20:44,480 --> 00:20:47,240
Speaker 3: the hottest attack in the league right now. But Villa's

435
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:49,840
Speaker 3: been running pretty hot too, So I expect these two

436
00:20:49,840 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 3: teams to cool off at some point, and they're kind

437
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,520
Speaker 3: of meeting each other here in a spot. Villa is

438
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 3: very direct with their counter attacks. They have the top

439
00:20:56,240 --> 00:20:58,119
Speaker 3: their top of the league and attack speed, and they

440
00:20:58,160 --> 00:20:59,719
Speaker 3: should be able to create a big chance of two.

441
00:21:01,160 --> 00:21:05,040
Speaker 3: But Southampton also have now scored twenty one expected or

442
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 3: twenty one goals from fifteen expected goals in their last

443
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:10,120
Speaker 3: ten league matches, so not only are they running well

444
00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 3: above their numbers and kind of regressing positively back to

445
00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:15,520
Speaker 3: what the means should have been, but they're also you know,

446
00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,800
Speaker 3: one point five actually per match is pretty good for Saints.

447
00:21:19,200 --> 00:21:21,520
Speaker 3: So I think both you know, are are probably going

448
00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:23,360
Speaker 3: to come down to earth a little bit. You don't

449
00:21:23,400 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 3: expect this attack to be this good, and really they

450
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,920
Speaker 3: played kind of over their toale level lately, and there

451
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:31,640
Speaker 3: was the time to buy the Saints, but we've kind

452
00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:34,240
Speaker 3: of passed that now and now I'm looking to maybe

453
00:21:34,240 --> 00:21:38,360
Speaker 3: sell the attack again. Villa. Same thing. Villa averaging one

454
00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:41,280
Speaker 3: expected goal per game this year, but they're scoring one

455
00:21:41,320 --> 00:21:45,119
Speaker 3: point three six expected goals per match, So that's a

456
00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:47,520
Speaker 3: pretty red flag that this attack is not nearly as

457
00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 3: good as the numbers indicate. So I would lean toward

458
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 3: the under. The only thing that scares me is with

459
00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 3: the Saints. You know, they've just been conceding so many

460
00:21:55,240 --> 00:21:58,120
Speaker 3: big chances that it only takes one or two for Villa,

461
00:21:58,240 --> 00:21:59,600
Speaker 3: and then all of a sudden the game opens up

462
00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 3: and it gets crazy again. So game state, it's a

463
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,120
Speaker 3: bit of a concern, but I certainly lean toward the under.

464
00:22:04,160 --> 00:22:04,720
Speaker 3: Two and a half.

465
00:22:05,080 --> 00:22:07,159
Speaker 2: Yeah, Bja you're you're looking at a kind of similar

466
00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:08,240
Speaker 2: angle here too, right.

467
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:10,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, Similarly, I'm going both teams to score no which

468
00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:12,720
Speaker 1: is at a pretty good price and plus one thirty.

469
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:15,640
Speaker 1: It just I believe this price is a little overvalued.

470
00:22:16,400 --> 00:22:20,480
Speaker 1: Anthony mentioned it the aston Villa matches have become low

471
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 1: event in terms of expected goals, but we're not seeing that.

472
00:22:23,160 --> 00:22:25,959
Speaker 1: Actually what's happening on the pitch, so under Jerrard one

473
00:22:25,960 --> 00:22:28,560
Speaker 1: point zero nine x g per match four one point

474
00:22:28,680 --> 00:22:32,159
Speaker 1: zero six against so very low event two point one

475
00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:36,400
Speaker 1: five x g per match. Well, actual goals it's two

476
00:22:36,440 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: point sixty four per match, so there's going to be

477
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 1: some regression pushing that down here. This is just really

478
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:45,119
Speaker 1: a bad matchup for aston Villa, who really struggles to

479
00:22:45,119 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 1: play through pressure. So going against Southampton's phonetic pressing, who

480
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,040
Speaker 1: forces the fourth most high turnover to the Premier League,

481
00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:55,760
Speaker 1: really is quite a bad matchup. But at that same token, Southampton,

482
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:57,600
Speaker 1: I agree with Anthony, they're going to come back down

483
00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 1: to earth at some point. They can't. I'm not buying

484
00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:03,200
Speaker 1: that Southampton is suddenly this resurgent team that's going to

485
00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:07,200
Speaker 1: start pushing up into you know, maybe threatening into the

486
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,320
Speaker 1: top eight. I just don't really see it, and their

487
00:23:10,320 --> 00:23:12,760
Speaker 1: performances away from home just have not been as good

488
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:16,680
Speaker 1: than at Saint Mary Stadium. Plus five point three expectable

489
00:23:16,680 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: differential at home versus minus five and a half away.

490
00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 1: So both teams have scored, yes, that is that minus

491
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:24,600
Speaker 1: one seventy. I find that to be way way too high.

492
00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:27,320
Speaker 1: So I love both teams to score no. At plus

493
00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:27,840
Speaker 1: one thirty.

494
00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:31,680
Speaker 2: We have a really interesting one here between Newcastle and Brighton.

495
00:23:31,760 --> 00:23:34,359
Speaker 2: Bookmakers are having a tough time separating them right now.

496
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:37,600
Speaker 2: The Magpies are plus one seventy, the Seagulls are plus

497
00:23:37,680 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 2: one seventy five, the druss plus two twenty. This is

498
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 2: another ten am kickoff on Saturday. It does set up

499
00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:46,440
Speaker 2: for a classic cell high spot, I think. On Newcastle anyhow,

500
00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:49,320
Speaker 2: I think we all thought he was going to do

501
00:23:49,359 --> 00:23:52,400
Speaker 2: a lot worse with this team than he did. He's

502
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 2: five five and four win draw loss in his fourteen

503
00:23:56,400 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 2: games in charge in the Premier League. They have a

504
00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:00,920
Speaker 2: minus five goal differential in that time, just about a

505
00:24:00,960 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 2: minus six expectacle differential. The defense he did improve them,

506
00:24:04,840 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 2: They're not We're not saying that this is a great defense,

507
00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 2: but they did. Yeah, I get a lot better from

508
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,960
Speaker 2: the rock bottom that he inherited. However, I do think

509
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 2: that this is just a really good opportunity to sell

510
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,639
Speaker 2: high on Eddie Howe's Newcastle. They're four to three and

511
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:22,160
Speaker 2: oh win draw lost since December twenty seventh, and they're

512
00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:25,600
Speaker 2: taking on a team in Brighton that is just much

513
00:24:25,680 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 2: better than them, I think in terms of the coach,

514
00:24:28,240 --> 00:24:30,440
Speaker 2: the way they play, and the fact that Brighton's game

515
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 2: really does translate well whether it's on the road and

516
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 2: especially when they're underdog. So I think that the Seagulls here,

517
00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:40,040
Speaker 2: I mean, this is just an incredible spot you're getting.

518
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: I want to be surprised with this number does dip

519
00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 2: even if Brighton is on the on the road, So

520
00:24:45,240 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 2: if you are hearing this on Thursday, you might want

521
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:50,640
Speaker 2: act pretty quickly on Brighton. But yeah, give me the Seagulls.

522
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,960
Speaker 2: I like them plus one fifty five or better. I

523
00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 2: have a feeling that this is going to be a

524
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:58,960
Speaker 2: three for three, but BJA, I'll let you go first.

525
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:03,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, definitely lean Brighton. There's just some some things that

526
00:25:03,320 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 1: have me concerned with our Seagulls right now. Their performances

527
00:25:06,520 --> 00:25:09,080
Speaker 1: over the past few weeks have just not been that good.

528
00:25:09,160 --> 00:25:11,239
Speaker 1: They've lost the expected goals battle and four of their

529
00:25:11,320 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: last five matches they have a minus two point six

530
00:25:13,920 --> 00:25:16,560
Speaker 1: expected Goldiffrench all on the season, which is way below

531
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: where they were at last season. Now, with that being said,

532
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,119
Speaker 1: they have some pretty significant advantages over Newcastle here in

533
00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 1: terms of the pressing. Newcastle horrible at playing through pressure,

534
00:25:26,400 --> 00:25:28,560
Speaker 1: while Brighton's you know, number one in the Premier League

535
00:25:28,600 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 1: and pressure success rate. On the flip side, Brighton is

536
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: top three at playing through pressure, while Newcastle is one

537
00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 1: of the worst pressing teams in the Premier League. Even

538
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 1: with all of the new signings they have, they're still

539
00:25:38,280 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 1: around dead last in pass per defensive action. The last

540
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,760
Speaker 1: time these two teams met, Newcastle pulled off a smash

541
00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:49,159
Speaker 1: and grab against Brighton. Brighton completely dominated them in a

542
00:25:49,200 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: one to one draw one point six x get a

543
00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 1: point two held sixty six percent possession twenty three shot

544
00:25:54,840 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: creating actions to six. Now things have obviously changed. You know,

545
00:25:58,480 --> 00:26:01,960
Speaker 1: take the Newcastle match against Brentford with a big time

546
00:26:02,040 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 1: grain assault considering Brentford got a red card in the

547
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,720
Speaker 1: twelfth minute. So yes, they dominated them, but they should

548
00:26:07,720 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: have because they were up a man for pretty much

549
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 1: the entire match, and you mentioned to Michael the Newcastle

550
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,680
Speaker 1: defensive performances have gotten better three expected goals allowed in

551
00:26:14,720 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 1: the last five matches, so with Brighton being you know,

552
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,160
Speaker 1: bottom six and non penalty expected goals four, definitely gives

553
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:23,919
Speaker 1: me some pause on them. But if Brighton John o'bett

554
00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,399
Speaker 1: hits even money it's at minus one five or now,

555
00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:28,840
Speaker 1: but hits even money or anything plus, I'm definitely gonna

556
00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:30,440
Speaker 1: fire on the Seagulls, Anthony.

557
00:26:31,200 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 2: I think you're going to be with me here with

558
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:35,119
Speaker 2: It's been impressive what Newcastle is doing, but at some

559
00:26:35,280 --> 00:26:38,359
Speaker 2: point they're going to get found out or hit hit

560
00:26:38,400 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 2: a snag. They're not going to lose another game. And

561
00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:42,920
Speaker 2: I think that Brighton are just the type of team

562
00:26:43,480 --> 00:26:46,280
Speaker 2: that can cool down any side that's running hot.

563
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:47,920
Speaker 3: You know, it's been a while. I feel like since

564
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 3: I bet Brighton, I have to go back and look

565
00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:51,399
Speaker 3: at the last time I bet our Seagulls. It's been

566
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,159
Speaker 3: a while, so I'm happy to have come back and

567
00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 3: hang on Brighton in this match. I just think the

568
00:26:56,600 --> 00:26:58,879
Speaker 3: line has gotten out of control here. Minus one of

569
00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 3: five is fine with me. I'm fine with that up

570
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:05,119
Speaker 3: to minus one fifteen one twenty. The look ahead was

571
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 3: minus one thirty on the draw O bet line and

572
00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:10,320
Speaker 3: that's about where I have it. And I was like, oh,

573
00:27:10,720 --> 00:27:13,080
Speaker 3: it might be a good spot for Brighton. But also

574
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:14,879
Speaker 3: last week, if you've listened to our podcast, I was

575
00:27:14,920 --> 00:27:17,560
Speaker 3: all over Brentford thought the same thing. You know, the

576
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:19,880
Speaker 3: recent form of Newcastle is just out of control here,

577
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 3: way too much respect for them. Brentford's great at home. Well,

578
00:27:23,560 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 3: the red card being the bet was dead in twelve minutes.

579
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 3: It was a pretty dumb red card too. It didn't

580
00:27:27,720 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 3: really impact the game all that much, but it was

581
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,560
Speaker 3: a red card nevertheless, and so basically a free win

582
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 3: for Newcastle. But now I think we're getting Brighton and

583
00:27:37,240 --> 00:27:39,159
Speaker 3: you mentioned it. They haven't been very sharp. They have

584
00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:41,440
Speaker 3: been quite poor. In fact, they lose to United in

585
00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 3: the midweek. I thought they were pretty even with United

586
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 3: for the first half hour forty five minutes and then

587
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 3: a goal against the run of play, a red card,

588
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:51,679
Speaker 3: and then that game got out of control. And then

589
00:27:51,680 --> 00:27:55,000
Speaker 3: they have two very flat consecutive performances. The first one

590
00:27:55,040 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 3: against Burnley the attack and show and then Burnley scored

591
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,760
Speaker 3: three chances on nine shots. I think it was, you know,

592
00:28:00,800 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 3: they less than one expected goal and then Villa scores

593
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:06,880
Speaker 3: two goals. You know, so they they've conceded five goals

594
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:09,280
Speaker 3: in the last two matches, but they've only conceded two expected.

595
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:12,359
Speaker 3: The attack has been quite poor, but I expect them

596
00:28:12,359 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 3: to take a step forward here. Newcastle's defense, yes, they've

597
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,880
Speaker 3: played better, but they also haven't really played any top

598
00:28:17,960 --> 00:28:20,600
Speaker 3: attacking side, so they haven't really been tested. Not that

599
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,479
Speaker 3: Brighton is the team that's going to really pummel them

600
00:28:22,520 --> 00:28:26,119
Speaker 3: with shots, but overall, I think even since December thirtieth,

601
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 3: which is what I queued it back to, which is

602
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:29,879
Speaker 3: right around the start of the January transfer window, right

603
00:28:29,920 --> 00:28:33,400
Speaker 3: when Newcastle started playing better, Newcastle still has a worse

604
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:36,000
Speaker 3: expected goal difference than Brighton since then. So even if

605
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 3: you if you need to take Newcastle's best part of

606
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:40,959
Speaker 3: the season, you can only get them to even with Brighton.

607
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 3: And so I'm happy to take Brighton here, even on

608
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:46,240
Speaker 3: the road. John to bat minus one five, and.

609
00:28:46,320 --> 00:28:50,000
Speaker 2: I wonder about Newcastle's their season going forward, because it

610
00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,880
Speaker 2: does seem like they're they're now pretty much clear of

611
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 2: the relegation zone, and a result against Brighton then they

612
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 2: play Southampton, another team that I think when that game comes,

613
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:03,000
Speaker 2: if it is an impressive performance for Newcastle here, we'll

614
00:29:03,000 --> 00:29:05,280
Speaker 2: be looking to play to sing a similar tune. And

615
00:29:05,360 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 2: then they take on Chelsea, and then it's evert In

616
00:29:08,640 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: and then Tottenham and Wolves. And I just think that

617
00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 2: when you're looking at looking ahead and thinking about how

618
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:16,000
Speaker 2: to play this Newcastle team, I think there once again,

619
00:29:16,040 --> 00:29:17,640
Speaker 2: and I've said this earlier in the year too, I

620
00:29:17,640 --> 00:29:21,360
Speaker 2: think this is a bet against team going forward, at

621
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:24,000
Speaker 2: least until the market cools down on them. All right,

622
00:29:24,240 --> 00:29:27,240
Speaker 2: Another interesting one we got Burnley. They're plus seven fifty

623
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: taking on Chelsea hosting Chelsea minus two twenty. The draw

624
00:29:31,200 --> 00:29:34,880
Speaker 2: here is plus three twenty. All sorts of intrigue around

625
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 2: Chelsea as Roman Abramovich is going to sell the club

626
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 2: due to his just ties to what's going on in Russia,

627
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:45,719
Speaker 2: and it's not I don't think that this stuff normally

628
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 2: would affect what will happen on the pitch, but this

629
00:29:48,480 --> 00:29:50,680
Speaker 2: Chelsea team has just been all over the place in

630
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 2: so many different ways since the holidays. We're talking about

631
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:57,000
Speaker 2: them playing in the FIFA Club World Cup. They just

632
00:29:57,160 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 2: played had to come back against Luton in the FA

633
00:30:00,120 --> 00:30:02,280
Speaker 2: up in the midweek. A couple weeks before that, they

634
00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,800
Speaker 2: had to do the same thing against Plymouth Argyle. They

635
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:08,080
Speaker 2: also played a final at Wembley and went to the

636
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 2: eleven round shootout against Liverpool. It's that was on Sunday,

637
00:30:12,280 --> 00:30:14,440
Speaker 2: Like this is. This team is just being pulled in

638
00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,480
Speaker 2: a million different directions and I can't think of a

639
00:30:17,600 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 2: worse trip to make than to have to go to Burnley,

640
00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 2: where it's probably just gonna be a way for bj

641
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,760
Speaker 2: to confirm it. The Lancashire rain and wind will probably

642
00:30:26,840 --> 00:30:29,320
Speaker 2: just be whipping down at turf More. Someone will turn

643
00:30:29,400 --> 00:30:32,160
Speaker 2: the sprinklers on and Sean Ditsch will make sure that

644
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,960
Speaker 2: the wind is howling. I just there's no way for

645
00:30:35,080 --> 00:30:37,760
Speaker 2: me to think even think about laying it with Chelsea here.

646
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 2: Even though this is Burnley's fifth game in two weeks.

647
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 2: I do think that they've been pretty impressive. They've shown

648
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 2: that they have like a more cohesive plan to generate

649
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:50,160
Speaker 2: offense with valut Vegghorse and yeah, I don't think you're

650
00:30:50,200 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 2: gonna be able to keep me off of the Burnley

651
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 2: money line here. I'll wait to see where it goes,

652
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:57,040
Speaker 2: but that's where I'm going to Clark's BJ tell us

653
00:30:57,040 --> 00:30:58,680
Speaker 2: about the weather and tell us about your bet.

654
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, de Grease sixty percent, chancer ragin and ten to

655
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 1: fifteen mile in hour. Win's actually pretty pretty beautiful day

656
00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: in Burnley on Saturday. Yeah, I agree with you. I Chelsea, listen,

657
00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,640
Speaker 1: this is not the best of matchups for Burnley. But

658
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 1: when you take into accounts, you know, all of those

659
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 1: matches that Chelsea's played, they're just over valied here on

660
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 1: the road. So for example, I have Chelsea at around

661
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:24,240
Speaker 1: sixty one percent. If you look at five thirty eight,

662
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 1: they have Chelsea at fifty seven percent. If you look

663
00:31:26,360 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 1: at infogal, they have Chelsea sixty two percent. So Chelsea

664
00:31:29,040 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 1: is currently minus two twenty, which equates to around sixty

665
00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 1: nine little below sixty nine percent. So there is expected

666
00:31:35,800 --> 00:31:38,040
Speaker 1: value on Burnley, especially at home, where we've talked a

667
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:40,280
Speaker 1: lot that they're way better than on the road. They're

668
00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: actually one of the worst road teams in the Premier League.

669
00:31:42,560 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: But I do have around it even expected gold a

670
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,880
Speaker 1: French at home. The problem I have with this is

671
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,680
Speaker 1: I do see a scenario where Chelsea is just going

672
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:52,440
Speaker 1: to hold the ball in Burnley's end of the pitch

673
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,000
Speaker 1: and just fire off shot after shot after shot and

674
00:31:55,080 --> 00:31:58,160
Speaker 1: eventually break through. Because Burnley is dead last and shots

675
00:31:58,200 --> 00:32:00,640
Speaker 1: a loud Pennini, They're dead last in box entries allowed,

676
00:32:00,800 --> 00:32:04,640
Speaker 1: and Burnley didn't look great on Tuesday. To be honest,

677
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,440
Speaker 1: Lester pretty much dominated them for the majority of the match.

678
00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: They did create a couple of big scoring chances near

679
00:32:09,440 --> 00:32:11,880
Speaker 1: the end, but for a majority of that match there

680
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,560
Speaker 1: was a lot of sloppiness defensively that Lester really pounced

681
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: on and could have had I think at least three

682
00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:20,000
Speaker 1: or four goals. So if you make those mistakes against Chelsea,

683
00:32:20,040 --> 00:32:22,640
Speaker 1: They're going to absolutely punish you. So it makes me

684
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 1: really nervous with Burnley here. I really just need a

685
00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,280
Speaker 1: better number. But plus one is currently at plus one

686
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:30,440
Speaker 1: oh five. I need that he gets plus one fifteen

687
00:32:30,760 --> 00:32:33,040
Speaker 1: or plus one twenty or at least get hope. Maybe

688
00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:34,560
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to happen, but maybe a

689
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 1: decent number on plus one and a half. So I'm

690
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 1: definitely leaning Burnley, but I do need a better number

691
00:32:40,280 --> 00:32:40,560
Speaker 1: on them.

692
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this match can go in a million

693
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:45,440
Speaker 2: different ways because of the spots and the fact that

694
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:49,400
Speaker 2: both teams are playing this compact schedule in Burnley's case,

695
00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:52,880
Speaker 2: and then the incredibly strange timeline that Chelsea's currently living

696
00:32:52,960 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 2: in Anthony. I think you're seeing some chaos here. Huh.

697
00:32:57,120 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 3: I really want to get there. On Burnley too, I'm

698
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 3: in the same spot. And there's one thing that I've

699
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,280
Speaker 3: been you know, Bjay's accusing me of being wishy washy.

700
00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 3: There's one thing that I've been. I've been going. I've

701
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 3: been going. I you know, we buy and we sell here,

702
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 3: but I've been I've been pretty steadfast. As Chelsea defense

703
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,840
Speaker 3: continues to be overrated. And you watch the game against Liverpool.

704
00:33:15,960 --> 00:33:19,000
Speaker 3: I know it's Liverpool, but how that game ended neil

705
00:33:19,080 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 3: nil is beyond belief. Uh for those of us who

706
00:33:22,120 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 3: had both teams to score. We don't talk about it,

707
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 3: but you know that that's a classic example of of

708
00:33:28,280 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 3: Chelsea's defense just bailed out. And look, Mandy's had a

709
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,280
Speaker 3: good year, but I mean some of the misses and

710
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:37,600
Speaker 3: then the off side call, uh just brutal. And they

711
00:33:37,680 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 3: continue to ride their luck here and I think Burnley,

712
00:33:41,080 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 3: you know, they're minus one ten to score. If that

713
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,480
Speaker 3: gets to plus money, I'm in uh. And the same thing,

714
00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 3: you know, plus plus one point twenty five is minus

715
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:49,720
Speaker 3: one thirty right now, you know, if that gets down

716
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 3: a little bit on there as well, so maybe split

717
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 3: a unit on those two or something. But overall I

718
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:57,080
Speaker 3: think this is you know, I tweeted this out on

719
00:33:57,160 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 3: Wednesday morning. They played in five different com petitions in

720
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:05,120
Speaker 3: eighteen days between the Palmiers win and the Club World

721
00:34:05,160 --> 00:34:06,960
Speaker 3: Cup on the twelfth of February. Then they had the

722
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,760
Speaker 3: league win against Palace in the eighteenth, then they hosted

723
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,080
Speaker 3: LEO and the Champions League on the twenty first, then

724
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 3: they had the cup final on the twenty fifth against

725
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 3: their twenty seventh rather against Liverpool in Wembley EFL Cup,

726
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,760
Speaker 3: and then they had the FA Cup match on Wednesday,

727
00:34:21,760 --> 00:34:23,120
Speaker 3: and then they're gonna have to play the Prime again.

728
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: So it's just absurd. You know, there has to be

729
00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,360
Speaker 3: fatigue at some point, and they played extra time on Sunday,

730
00:34:30,360 --> 00:34:33,000
Speaker 3: and then they did rotate the squad a good amount

731
00:34:33,200 --> 00:34:36,600
Speaker 3: for this looton match on Wednesday. But even still they're

732
00:34:36,640 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 3: getting pushed here a lot, and they're really pretty comfortable

733
00:34:39,200 --> 00:34:41,960
Speaker 3: here sitting in third place where they're not really in

734
00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,560
Speaker 3: a danger zone for falling out of the top four.

735
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 3: But They're also not in the title race, so I

736
00:34:46,640 --> 00:34:49,240
Speaker 3: think it's going to be a weird space for Chelsea

737
00:34:49,320 --> 00:34:50,759
Speaker 3: in the league because I think they may, you know,

738
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,920
Speaker 3: they're going to prioritize, Hey, we can try to win

739
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:56,120
Speaker 3: the FA Cup, Hey, the Champions League. So it'll be

740
00:34:56,160 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 3: interesting to see how Chelsea goes, you know, going down

741
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:01,279
Speaker 3: the road here. But definitely a lean toward Burnley and

742
00:35:01,760 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 3: I'll be dan if I don't end up firing on

743
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:05,800
Speaker 3: Burnley team total over half I think by Saturday.

744
00:35:06,280 --> 00:35:09,959
Speaker 2: Burnley currently in the relegation zone in eighteenth place, twenty

745
00:35:10,000 --> 00:35:13,280
Speaker 2: one points from twenty five games. And we'll talk about

746
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:15,879
Speaker 2: two other teams in the relegation zone next. That's nord City.

747
00:35:15,960 --> 00:35:19,439
Speaker 2: They're plus two hundred hosting Brentford plus one fifty five.

748
00:35:19,600 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 2: They air favorites on the road. The draw here is

749
00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 2: plus two to fifteen. Let's just set it up real quick.

750
00:35:24,360 --> 00:35:28,120
Speaker 2: Norch City seventeen points from twenty six games. Above them

751
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,280
Speaker 2: is Watford nineteen points from twenty six games, then Burnley

752
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:35,480
Speaker 2: twenty one from twenty five, Frank Lampard's Everden twenty two

753
00:35:35,600 --> 00:35:39,399
Speaker 2: from twenty four, Leeds United, Jesse Marsh's men twenty three

754
00:35:39,480 --> 00:35:42,720
Speaker 2: from twenty six and then Brentford twenty four from twenty

755
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:46,399
Speaker 2: seven games played in Newcastle, surging twenty five points from

756
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,719
Speaker 2: twenty five games. So this Brentford Nord City won. When

757
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:53,800
Speaker 2: you consider that Brentford is three points up on Burnley

758
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,080
Speaker 2: with two more games played, this is a huge match

759
00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:58,319
Speaker 2: for both teams. I would say must win for both

760
00:35:58,360 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 2: clubs coming into it, and I think this is an

761
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,080
Speaker 2: opportunity here to grab a little bit of value on Brentford,

762
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 2: even though they're one one in seven wind draw loss

763
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 2: since January first, and they've just been bad at all

764
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,080
Speaker 2: parts of the pitch. It's been ugly. This team has

765
00:36:13,640 --> 00:36:15,840
Speaker 2: played its way into the relegation scrap right. There's not

766
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: much you can't really sugarcoat what's been going on with them. However,

767
00:36:19,640 --> 00:36:22,000
Speaker 2: I do think that there is a little bit more

768
00:36:22,080 --> 00:36:24,759
Speaker 2: talent here than is showing through in the results. And

769
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 2: Thomas Frank I think we all believe in him as

770
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 2: a manager and I can't look away from the number

771
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 2: on Brentford. It's not gonna be a fun one, but

772
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,319
Speaker 2: plus one fifty five against an Orc, even on the road,

773
00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:38,480
Speaker 2: That's where I'm going. Buzz buzz back on the Bees, baby,

774
00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 2: bj what about you.

775
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:43,799
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like it's what three straight weeks now,

776
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 1: me and Anthony have been coming on here and saying, hey,

777
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:49,800
Speaker 1: we've reached the bottom of the market on Brentford. But

778
00:36:50,080 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: so again, I think we've reached the bottom of the

779
00:36:53,040 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 1: market barely being favored over the worst team in the

780
00:36:56,840 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 1: Premier League. They do play Burnley at home next week,

781
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: so maybe I'll be come back here again and say, hey,

782
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:02,840
Speaker 1: we've reached the bottom of the market on Brentford. But

783
00:37:03,960 --> 00:37:08,600
Speaker 1: it's it's tough because Brentford has lost essentially seven of

784
00:37:08,640 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: their last eight matches. They pretty much you have to

785
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:14,799
Speaker 1: throw out the match against Newcastle really unlucky. Red card

786
00:37:14,920 --> 00:37:18,640
Speaker 1: wasn't really trying to, you know, basically take out the

787
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,840
Speaker 1: guys shin, but it happens, you know, it is what

788
00:37:20,920 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 1: it is, it is red card. Then they're down a

789
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:24,680
Speaker 1: man for the whole match and they end up losing

790
00:37:24,719 --> 00:37:27,600
Speaker 1: to nothing and getting dominated, which you know you expect

791
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 1: to happen being down a man. But Brentford is obviously

792
00:37:31,160 --> 00:37:33,279
Speaker 1: a club that pays attention to expected goals, They pay

793
00:37:33,280 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: attention to advanced analytics. So Thomas Frank is not going

794
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,759
Speaker 1: anywhere because Brentford minus seventeen actual goal differential only a

795
00:37:39,800 --> 00:37:44,640
Speaker 1: minus five point two expected goal differential, so essentially throwing

796
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,400
Speaker 1: out that Newcastle match. The last the seven matches previous

797
00:37:47,440 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: to that, they were outscored by their opponent sixteen to four,

798
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 1: but based on expected goals it was only eleven point

799
00:37:53,080 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: two to seven point five, so it's really not as

800
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 1: bad as it seems. Additionally, for the first time in

801
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,960
Speaker 1: many months, Brentford fully healthy, David Rice back in that

802
00:38:02,080 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 1: even Tony came off the bench against Newcastle. Christian Erickson

803
00:38:04,520 --> 00:38:07,440
Speaker 1: made his debut against Newcastle, so they finally have a

804
00:38:07,520 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 1: full healthy squad and I think maybe we'll start to

805
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 1: see the Brentford team that we fell in love with

806
00:38:13,360 --> 00:38:16,279
Speaker 1: at the beginning of the season. Norwich just by far

807
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:18,279
Speaker 1: and away the worst team in the league. Yes, based

808
00:38:18,320 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: on expected goals that they're not as bad as a

809
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 1: minus forty four expected gold differential, but having a one

810
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,000
Speaker 1: point zero six expected gold differential per ninety minutes is

811
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 1: really bad, and over the last eleven matches Norwich only

812
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,240
Speaker 1: been able to create an embarrassing six point six expected

813
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,759
Speaker 1: goals by allowing twenty two point five. There's also a

814
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,960
Speaker 1: revenge spot for Brentford, who lost to Norwich two to

815
00:38:39,000 --> 00:38:42,320
Speaker 1: one at home earlier in this season, despite winning unexpected

816
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:44,320
Speaker 1: goals two point two to one point four and holding

817
00:38:44,719 --> 00:38:48,360
Speaker 1: sixty four percent possession, having seventy four touches compared to

818
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 1: only fifteen for Norwich. So again it's a by low

819
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,040
Speaker 1: spot on Brentford. I feel like we're It's obviously not

820
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 1: as to the level that Brighton was last year, but

821
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: I think we're starting to reach the level that every

822
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,360
Speaker 1: single week if they're healthy, Brentford's going to be to

823
00:39:04,480 --> 00:39:06,120
Speaker 1: be a team that you're gonna have to bet on

824
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 1: because they're just so overdue for some type of positive aggression.

825
00:39:09,480 --> 00:39:11,520
Speaker 1: So I have then projected as an even money favor

826
00:39:11,600 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 1: on the road. So I'm with you, Michael, give me

827
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:15,760
Speaker 1: the bees. John o'batt at minus one twenty five, Anthony,

828
00:39:15,880 --> 00:39:17,000
Speaker 1: is this.

829
00:39:17,120 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 2: The time that Brentford finally starts to turn things around

830
00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 2: a little bit? And more importantly, is this the number

831
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 2: to back them to do?

832
00:39:23,800 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 3: So? Yeah, I certainly lean that way as well. I

833
00:39:27,200 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 3: probably would up playing them also, I just feared this

834
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 3: team on the road. But the one thing that I think,

835
00:39:33,360 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 3: you know and I just took my notes from last

836
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,680
Speaker 3: week's Brentford match and then put them back into this

837
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:39,799
Speaker 3: week's because I didn't really read anything into last week.

838
00:39:39,840 --> 00:39:42,360
Speaker 3: I'd throw everything out the window when it goes to

839
00:39:42,400 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 3: ten on eleven. But the one interesting thing Norwich is

840
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,040
Speaker 3: the second worst team at defending set pieces in the league.

841
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 3: Only worse is last year. We've talked about them a lot,

842
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 3: we haven't talked about Norwich. They can't defend set pieces.

843
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 3: Brentford very very good at taking advantage of not only

844
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:58,600
Speaker 3: just corners and free kicks, but also throw ins which

845
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,239
Speaker 3: don't really get counted as set piece but are sort

846
00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:03,319
Speaker 3: of like set pieces the way they do them, at

847
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 3: least with the long throw into the box. So I

848
00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:09,040
Speaker 3: think Brentford has a matchup edge there. You mentioned the

849
00:40:09,080 --> 00:40:12,080
Speaker 3: revenge angle. All that's true. The only fear has been

850
00:40:12,200 --> 00:40:14,360
Speaker 3: just how bad they've been away from the Brentford Community Stadium.

851
00:40:14,920 --> 00:40:16,839
Speaker 3: I will probably not be back in them every week,

852
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:19,839
Speaker 3: but I will probably be backing them in this match.

853
00:40:19,920 --> 00:40:22,919
Speaker 3: I just Norwich. There's not a ton to like about

854
00:40:22,960 --> 00:40:26,799
Speaker 3: this team, and they really don't, you know. I don't

855
00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 3: think they're going to create a lot of chances in

856
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,080
Speaker 3: this match. Even if you go back to the first meeting,

857
00:40:30,440 --> 00:40:32,239
Speaker 3: it was a couple of fluky goals and I believe

858
00:40:32,239 --> 00:40:34,400
Speaker 3: a penalty that went into the win for Norwich, but

859
00:40:34,440 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 3: it wasn't like they were dominating the match. Even Thomas

860
00:40:38,760 --> 00:40:41,320
Speaker 3: Frank talked about after how they created over three or

861
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:43,239
Speaker 3: two expected goals and they should have won the match.

862
00:40:43,920 --> 00:40:46,120
Speaker 2: Move on to the twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday.

863
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:50,719
Speaker 2: That's Liverpool off their Carabell Cup victory against Chelsea their

864
00:40:50,800 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 2: minus three twenty hosting west Ham in a rematch from

865
00:40:53,760 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 2: the Hammers thrilling three to win back in November. The

866
00:40:57,200 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 2: Hammers are nine to one on the money line at

867
00:40:59,680 --> 00:41:01,799
Speaker 2: and able to draw here is plus four to seventy five.

868
00:41:02,160 --> 00:41:05,680
Speaker 2: Since that win, west Ham has not been very good

869
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:08,920
Speaker 2: seven four six win, draw, a loss with a negative

870
00:41:08,960 --> 00:41:11,800
Speaker 2: expected gold differential. There's been a bunch of injuries and

871
00:41:12,560 --> 00:41:16,040
Speaker 2: kind of axsenuating circumstances there. However, I think I believe

872
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,319
Speaker 2: in David Moyes's ability to do well in these kind

873
00:41:19,320 --> 00:41:22,240
Speaker 2: of spots, or he seems to be able to find

874
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 2: almost what pisses off a good team the most and

875
00:41:26,680 --> 00:41:29,560
Speaker 2: then exploit that. I don't want to call it a weakness,

876
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:32,320
Speaker 2: but that's kind of what he's been able to do

877
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,440
Speaker 2: his whole career as a manager, at least in the

878
00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:37,600
Speaker 2: good bits of it. And that's why I don't think

879
00:41:37,719 --> 00:41:39,960
Speaker 2: you can do the simple thing here, which is to

880
00:41:40,040 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 2: just lay it with Liverpool at home, watch them go

881
00:41:42,680 --> 00:41:44,960
Speaker 2: up to nil, get a penalty, because that's what they do,

882
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 2: and then run away and hide from west Ham. However,

883
00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,680
Speaker 2: I do want to I'm looking at the west Ham number,

884
00:41:52,680 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 2: but I do think I'm gonna need to wait a

885
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:55,920
Speaker 2: little bit and see if this thing ticks up, or

886
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:58,360
Speaker 2: you know, if there's some lineup clarity or something, because

887
00:41:58,840 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 2: it's not gonna be fun to bet get Liverpool in

888
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:04,200
Speaker 2: this kind of form and brimming with confidence after hoisting

889
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:06,960
Speaker 2: a trophy at Wembley, and of course their season now

890
00:42:07,920 --> 00:42:11,600
Speaker 2: is they're chasing man City in a legitimate title chase here,

891
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,920
Speaker 2: So you know, I don't have any self control, so

892
00:42:14,960 --> 00:42:16,839
Speaker 2: I'll end up on west Ham. But right now I'm

893
00:42:16,920 --> 00:42:19,600
Speaker 2: trying my best to kind of talk myself out of it. BJ.

894
00:42:20,040 --> 00:42:22,320
Speaker 2: What are your thoughts here between the Reds and the Hammers.

895
00:42:23,000 --> 00:42:25,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm happy to pass on this one, definitely, with

896
00:42:26,280 --> 00:42:29,359
Speaker 1: lean towards Liverpool, I would probably need a better number.

897
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:32,160
Speaker 1: The interesting thing about Liverpool is They're now on the

898
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:35,040
Speaker 1: level with Manchester City, right even with them, but both

899
00:42:35,080 --> 00:42:38,200
Speaker 1: teams have a plus forty one point eight expected gold

900
00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 1: of French Well, obviously Liverpool has a game in hand

901
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:43,520
Speaker 1: on them, so you could, based on actually actually differential

902
00:42:43,560 --> 00:42:46,719
Speaker 1: for ninety Liverpool's actually been better than City this season. Now,

903
00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:48,520
Speaker 1: you know, a lot of that gets a little bit

904
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:52,560
Speaker 1: inflated with a six zero win against against Leeds United

905
00:42:52,600 --> 00:42:56,719
Speaker 1: in the midweek, along with a pounding of Norwich City

906
00:42:56,719 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 1: as well, so you know they take it with a

907
00:42:58,880 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 1: grain of salt wherever it is. But west Ham really

908
00:43:03,200 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 1: just not impressive offensively over the last few months or so.

909
00:43:07,000 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 1: The match against Walls was the first time they've created

910
00:43:09,680 --> 00:43:13,520
Speaker 1: over one expected goal since January sixteenth, and that was

911
00:43:13,520 --> 00:43:18,760
Speaker 1: against Leeds United. So really tough spot here for west Ham. Obviously,

912
00:43:18,800 --> 00:43:21,920
Speaker 1: Liverpool playing in the midweek and then have the Champions

913
00:43:21,960 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: League match on Wednesday against Inter Milan, but my numbers

914
00:43:26,000 --> 00:43:28,080
Speaker 1: are pretty close right on to what the price is,

915
00:43:28,239 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 1: so I'm happy to just pass and let Liverpool win

916
00:43:31,560 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: for nothing.

917
00:43:32,719 --> 00:43:36,439
Speaker 2: Yeah, And it's that classic kind of conundrum where it's

918
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:39,440
Speaker 2: I think the number is probably inflated here. I mean,

919
00:43:39,480 --> 00:43:41,279
Speaker 2: it's got to be with the way Liverpool's playing, and

920
00:43:41,520 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 2: west Ham is a good enough team even though they

921
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:45,680
Speaker 2: are struggling. There a good enough team where no matter

922
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:47,920
Speaker 2: what kind of form they're in, nine to one is

923
00:43:47,920 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 2: always going to be tempting, no matter who the opponent,

924
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,880
Speaker 2: where the vendue of the game, which is my thinking here.

925
00:43:53,200 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 2: I worked on with Tottenham against City a couple of

926
00:43:55,719 --> 00:43:58,120
Speaker 2: weeks ago when they were eleven to one, and I'm

927
00:43:58,160 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 2: hoping that it works again. But I really wouldn't be

928
00:44:00,719 --> 00:44:03,960
Speaker 2: surprised to see this number get even longer in west Ham. Anthony,

929
00:44:04,640 --> 00:44:07,400
Speaker 2: you're thinking this thing could be a little more cagey,

930
00:44:07,640 --> 00:44:10,360
Speaker 2: I guess than the numbers which suggest.

931
00:44:10,800 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 3: Yeah. You know, it's tricky because I've been selling off

932
00:44:14,280 --> 00:44:17,520
Speaker 3: west Ham for a while now and I think there

933
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:21,440
Speaker 3: are some issues with them. But I also think that

934
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 3: Moyes can kind of repeat the game plan from the

935
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:26,919
Speaker 3: first meeting in November and just put ten dudes behind

936
00:44:26,960 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 3: the ball, and I think they're good enough to kind

937
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 3: of manage that and to make life difficult for Liverpool.

938
00:44:33,360 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 3: Even though this is at anfield it's very different from

939
00:44:35,360 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 3: being away for Liverpool. The Liverpool attack has been running

940
00:44:39,160 --> 00:44:41,399
Speaker 3: red hot. I know they didn't score at all. I'm

941
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:43,239
Speaker 3: not gonna talk about that much anymore. They didn't score

942
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:46,160
Speaker 3: on Sunday, should have scored it a couple times as well,

943
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:48,319
Speaker 3: and they really should have conceded it a couple of times.

944
00:44:48,600 --> 00:44:50,359
Speaker 3: But if you go back, I mean, this attack has

945
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:53,640
Speaker 3: been rolling, not even just with the five against against

946
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 3: Leeds are the six against Leads rather, but they have

947
00:44:57,280 --> 00:44:59,440
Speaker 3: been rolling prior to that as well. And really you

948
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:01,560
Speaker 3: mentioned it BJ if they had had some better draw

949
00:45:01,640 --> 00:45:03,960
Speaker 3: lock early in the year, they probably would be on

950
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 3: the level with City and you could look around and

951
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:08,200
Speaker 3: probably try to find a you know, four to one

952
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 3: on Liverpool four and a half to one. It might

953
00:45:10,160 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 3: not be a terrible bet. But the Reds are going

954
00:45:13,360 --> 00:45:14,960
Speaker 3: to cool off at some point, I think, and I

955
00:45:15,080 --> 00:45:16,839
Speaker 3: think west Ham is the kind of team who could

956
00:45:16,840 --> 00:45:19,920
Speaker 3: cause some trouble. I also don't think west Ham is

957
00:45:20,000 --> 00:45:21,480
Speaker 3: going to do a ton in attack here. If you

958
00:45:21,520 --> 00:45:23,200
Speaker 3: go back to the first meeting, there were only two

959
00:45:23,200 --> 00:45:25,200
Speaker 3: point four expected goals, but remember there were the two

960
00:45:25,280 --> 00:45:27,200
Speaker 3: Fluke goals very early in the game where they kind

961
00:45:27,239 --> 00:45:29,799
Speaker 3: of just traded goals and that really opened it up

962
00:45:29,960 --> 00:45:32,680
Speaker 3: and kind of changed the dynamic of what was otherwise

963
00:45:32,760 --> 00:45:35,839
Speaker 3: a pretty cagy game. And then you know west Ham

964
00:45:35,880 --> 00:45:38,560
Speaker 3: scored off of a set piece and so there wasn't

965
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:41,160
Speaker 3: a ton of clear chances in that match despite it

966
00:45:41,320 --> 00:45:43,560
Speaker 3: ending three to two to west Ham. So I would

967
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:47,239
Speaker 3: lean toward the under, but this is probably one I'm

968
00:45:47,280 --> 00:45:48,359
Speaker 3: just going to sit back and enjoy.

969
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:51,040
Speaker 2: All right, we'll flip the page. Two Sunday morning a

970
00:45:51,120 --> 00:45:54,839
Speaker 2: nine am kickoff between Watford plus five fifty at home

971
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 2: hosting Arsenal who are minus one seventy five. The draw

972
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,120
Speaker 2: here is three to one. Roy hodgsons it's take king

973
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 2: over for Claudio Ranieri is one two and three wind

974
00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:06,600
Speaker 2: drawed loss with seven point seven to four expectacles against

975
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:09,480
Speaker 2: in five point seven eight expectacles four in those matches.

976
00:46:09,760 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 2: That's actually pretty been pretty impressive from Roy the way

977
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,800
Speaker 2: he's been able to I mean it's it's because of

978
00:46:16,200 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 2: where this Watford defense was when he took over and

979
00:46:19,480 --> 00:46:22,200
Speaker 2: how quickly he got them to be pedestrian, which is

980
00:46:22,320 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 2: a huge improvement for the Hornets.

981
00:46:24,800 --> 00:46:27,719
Speaker 3: And what was their start with with they hadn't.

982
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I hadn't hadn't got a clean she in Bordeaux,

983
00:46:33,280 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: by the way, still doesn't have a clean.

984
00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 2: Sheet on the season, and now look at now look

985
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,960
Speaker 2: at the horn. Yeah, it's pretty It's just it is impressive.

986
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:42,920
Speaker 3: I mean that was luck. That was about as lucky

987
00:46:42,960 --> 00:46:44,160
Speaker 3: as it guts last match.

988
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 2: But hey, yeah, But I mean he's the type of

989
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,359
Speaker 2: manager that is is really well suited for those kind

990
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:51,440
Speaker 2: of situations because he's going to have his players in

991
00:46:51,560 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 2: the right spot doing what they need to do to

992
00:46:53,280 --> 00:46:55,800
Speaker 2: just throw themselves in front of the ball when the

993
00:46:56,160 --> 00:47:01,600
Speaker 2: benches united is creating opportunities and that just makes me

994
00:47:01,680 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 2: horrified for anyone who's laying laying it with Arsenal here

995
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:07,920
Speaker 2: who I think. By the way, when we started the season,

996
00:47:08,360 --> 00:47:11,080
Speaker 2: the Arsenal was a roller coaster, no idea like what

997
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:14,000
Speaker 2: they were gonna pull out of the bag talk every yeah,

998
00:47:14,760 --> 00:47:16,320
Speaker 2: and I'm admitted to it, right, Like, this was a

999
00:47:16,360 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 2: team that was all over the map. And now it's

1000
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:21,359
Speaker 2: turned into a team where I feel like you kind

1001
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:23,320
Speaker 2: of just know what they're gonna do every week. It

1002
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:26,160
Speaker 2: feels like that like they they're much more predictable. It's

1003
00:47:26,200 --> 00:47:29,120
Speaker 2: so funny how a year can change, right I've got

1004
00:47:29,239 --> 00:47:31,759
Speaker 2: nothing here. I'm gonna be passing on this one. I

1005
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:34,080
Speaker 2: did think the under is probably the best way to

1006
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:36,920
Speaker 2: look at two and a half because Roy Hodgson is

1007
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 2: a defensive wizard. But I know BJ you disagree.

1008
00:47:41,800 --> 00:47:43,319
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like over. I think the price and over

1009
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,439
Speaker 1: two goals that plus money is pretty good here. Yeah,

1010
00:47:46,480 --> 00:47:48,680
Speaker 1: you mentioned that we know we're gonna get Marcel now

1011
00:47:48,719 --> 00:47:51,720
Speaker 1: and that that they're gonna win every single match because

1012
00:47:51,760 --> 00:47:54,800
Speaker 1: they are red hot and one of the well honestly

1013
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:56,440
Speaker 1: one of the best teams in the Premier League right now.

1014
00:47:56,480 --> 00:47:59,560
Speaker 1: Over their last ten matches they have the second best

1015
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:01,919
Speaker 1: expected goal to French all about round one point five

1016
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:05,200
Speaker 1: per ninety minutes. That's only behind the Liverpool, who's obviously

1017
00:48:05,280 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 1: been on fire. And the biggest thing is the offense

1018
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:11,400
Speaker 1: has just come alive. Then they're currently looking unstoppable. The

1019
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:15,200
Speaker 1: match against Wolves, they just it was onslought after onslaught

1020
00:48:15,239 --> 00:48:18,560
Speaker 1: for the entire second half. And over those ten matches,

1021
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 1: Arsenal's created close to twenty expected goals. That's those are

1022
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:24,840
Speaker 1: starting to get up there with elite numbers in the

1023
00:48:24,880 --> 00:48:28,120
Speaker 1: Premier League and so it's it's not surprising that over

1024
00:48:28,160 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 1: those ten matches that their matches are averaging around you know,

1025
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:35,279
Speaker 1: two point eight to expected goals and Arsenal really they've

1026
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 1: done a great job at dominating the bottom half of

1027
00:48:37,640 --> 00:48:40,120
Speaker 1: the table. The Arsenal teams in the past have tripped

1028
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:43,640
Speaker 1: up against lower sides and really cost a lot of

1029
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,600
Speaker 1: their seasons in top four chances when they stumble against

1030
00:48:46,640 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 1: lower sides. Well, now they're completely dominating them and eighteen

1031
00:48:49,400 --> 00:48:52,000
Speaker 1: matches against teams below them in the table, Arsenal has

1032
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:54,840
Speaker 1: a plus seventeen point four expected goal to French, averaging

1033
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:57,719
Speaker 1: one point eight expected goals for match. And yes Roy

1034
00:48:57,800 --> 00:48:59,160
Speaker 1: Hodge has moved to a four to four to two.

1035
00:48:59,560 --> 00:49:03,200
Speaker 1: Watford has looked better, but they were obviously very fortunate

1036
00:49:03,239 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 1: to not concede a goal against United. They were very

1037
00:49:05,360 --> 00:49:07,680
Speaker 1: fortunate not to concede a goal against aston Villa, who

1038
00:49:07,680 --> 00:49:12,000
Speaker 1: created around one point six against them, So you obviously

1039
00:49:12,040 --> 00:49:14,920
Speaker 1: take this with a grain of salt. But Watford this

1040
00:49:15,000 --> 00:49:17,400
Speaker 1: season against top seven teams in the Premier League and

1041
00:49:17,480 --> 00:49:19,759
Speaker 1: ten matches twenty one expected goals, so not very good.

1042
00:49:19,800 --> 00:49:23,120
Speaker 1: Obviously a lot of that was under Claudia Ronieri. I'm

1043
00:49:23,200 --> 00:49:26,239
Speaker 1: just not sold that this Watford four to four two

1044
00:49:26,600 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 1: is certainly going to cause Arsenal problems because I just

1045
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,640
Speaker 1: really don't think it will. I think Arsenal Levla a

1046
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:34,400
Speaker 1: pretty easy time, creating a lot of high quality chances.

1047
00:49:34,840 --> 00:49:37,440
Speaker 1: But the Arsenal defense do you for a little bit

1048
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:40,160
Speaker 1: of negative aggression? Over those ten matches, seven goals allowed

1049
00:49:40,160 --> 00:49:42,839
Speaker 1: from eight point four, so there's a chance Watford could

1050
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:45,280
Speaker 1: get on the board. Here is Ishmael Star is questionable.

1051
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:48,040
Speaker 1: If he plays, that's obviously a big boost to Watford.

1052
00:49:48,800 --> 00:49:50,960
Speaker 1: But I have around three goals projected, so I'm gonna

1053
00:49:50,960 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 1: trust my numbers and take over two and f goals

1054
00:49:52,960 --> 00:49:54,640
Speaker 1: at even money because I think it's a pretty good price.

1055
00:49:55,080 --> 00:49:57,279
Speaker 2: And now we'll go on to Monday Night football. Hey

1056
00:49:57,719 --> 00:50:01,960
Speaker 2: wonder goal Darby between Spurs one seventy at home hosting Everton.

1057
00:50:02,360 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 2: Frank Lampard's Toffees are five to one on the money

1058
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 2: line to draw. Here is plus three ten, Anthony. I'll

1059
00:50:07,000 --> 00:50:08,840
Speaker 2: let you go first because I'm coming in hot on

1060
00:50:08,960 --> 00:50:11,080
Speaker 2: the Taffees and I want to hear your argument before

1061
00:50:11,120 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 2: I give out mine.

1062
00:50:12,440 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 3: I don't really have a strong opinion on this match,

1063
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,279
Speaker 3: you know. And Spurs overs were fun for a little while,

1064
00:50:17,520 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 3: and now I'm kind of you know, I feel like

1065
00:50:19,680 --> 00:50:21,759
Speaker 3: the market's adjusted and it's pretty pretty much right on

1066
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,120
Speaker 3: here what I would have it. There's not a ton

1067
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:25,800
Speaker 3: of value in the both teams to score because I

1068
00:50:25,880 --> 00:50:29,120
Speaker 3: think Everton's attack should trend up as we get down

1069
00:50:29,239 --> 00:50:31,240
Speaker 3: towards the business end of the season because they're getting

1070
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:34,120
Speaker 3: so many guys back. From a stylistic point of view,

1071
00:50:34,480 --> 00:50:37,640
Speaker 3: I'm still not sure what we're getting from Lampard and

1072
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:40,920
Speaker 3: this Everton team, especially away from home. Tottenham be much

1073
00:50:41,000 --> 00:50:43,800
Speaker 3: better at home than away. They've played four straight away matches.

1074
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:46,719
Speaker 3: They finally get to come home now after it felt

1075
00:50:46,760 --> 00:50:48,160
Speaker 3: like they didn't play in away match for a month

1076
00:50:48,239 --> 00:50:50,879
Speaker 3: earlier this season. So I don't have a ton here.

1077
00:50:51,080 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 3: The numbers damn near spot on for me, and I

1078
00:50:54,239 --> 00:50:56,640
Speaker 3: will be probably passing Come on you Spurs.

1079
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:59,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like to price on evertence. They're five to

1080
00:50:59,280 --> 00:51:01,560
Speaker 2: one and they're I think that's what The one thing

1081
00:51:01,640 --> 00:51:04,279
Speaker 2: you could say is that if you watch these games

1082
00:51:04,360 --> 00:51:07,239
Speaker 2: under Lampard, it's clear as day that this team is

1083
00:51:07,280 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 2: getting better. They're playing better, they're playing harder, and he

1084
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 2: did something against Man City which was very encouraging to

1085
00:51:13,640 --> 00:51:15,920
Speaker 2: not just me but to Everton fans everywhere, which as

1086
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:17,759
Speaker 2: he put a third man in the middle of the

1087
00:51:17,800 --> 00:51:20,719
Speaker 2: park with Abdelaih de Corey coming back, he played with

1088
00:51:21,040 --> 00:51:23,759
Speaker 2: Alan and Donnie van Derbak and those three were really

1089
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,200
Speaker 2: good against man City with those three, and then you

1090
00:51:26,280 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 2: got Anthony Gordon and either you know, if it's going

1091
00:51:29,000 --> 00:51:30,840
Speaker 2: to be Damari Gray or Alex we'll be this. This

1092
00:51:30,960 --> 00:51:34,000
Speaker 2: team is good enough in the midfield here and on

1093
00:51:34,080 --> 00:51:37,080
Speaker 2: the wings to serve, whether it's for Charleston or Dominica

1094
00:51:37,080 --> 00:51:40,120
Speaker 2: Calvert Lowin if he's healthy, to give them the service

1095
00:51:40,160 --> 00:51:43,279
Speaker 2: that they need or to just to provide the opportunity

1096
00:51:43,320 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 2: and the space for those guys to score. So, like

1097
00:51:45,360 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: you said, this offense is going to improve if the

1098
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 2: question is always going to be with Everdon is whether

1099
00:51:50,239 --> 00:51:52,759
Speaker 2: the defense is going to be able to hang. And

1100
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:55,960
Speaker 2: Michael Keen and Mason Holgate they didn't really cover themselves

1101
00:51:56,000 --> 00:51:58,320
Speaker 2: with glory and then with the Manchester City goal, but

1102
00:51:58,400 --> 00:52:01,120
Speaker 2: they did only allow one and they did hang with

1103
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:03,880
Speaker 2: City's attack. They were at home. And I get that

1104
00:52:04,280 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 2: Everton has looked a completely different team under Lampard at

1105
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:10,680
Speaker 2: Goodison then on the road, but I think what you're

1106
00:52:10,760 --> 00:52:13,440
Speaker 2: doing here by buying Everton at five to one is

1107
00:52:14,360 --> 00:52:16,400
Speaker 2: you're beating the market before the market catches up to

1108
00:52:16,480 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 2: the improvements that we're going to see, not only it

1109
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,160
Speaker 2: with the eye test, but as well with the data

1110
00:52:21,640 --> 00:52:24,560
Speaker 2: under Lampard, because it's coming. It's just it's very, very

1111
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:28,359
Speaker 2: plain to see the Seamus Coleman's look better and John

1112
00:52:28,400 --> 00:52:31,000
Speaker 2: Joe Kenny of all people, has also been impressive as

1113
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:34,200
Speaker 2: fallbacks for Everton, and neither one of them were good

1114
00:52:34,320 --> 00:52:37,840
Speaker 2: under Benita. So this team they are improving. Whether they

1115
00:52:37,880 --> 00:52:39,360
Speaker 2: can pull off the upset it's five to one for

1116
00:52:39,440 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 2: a reason, it remains to be seen. But I think

1117
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,560
Speaker 2: that you're getting a really good number on a team

1118
00:52:44,000 --> 00:52:46,279
Speaker 2: that the market just probably won't be able to catch

1119
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,920
Speaker 2: up to, because, like we said, the numbers aren't there

1120
00:52:50,000 --> 00:52:52,600
Speaker 2: yet under Lampard, but they will get there eventually. So

1121
00:52:53,040 --> 00:52:55,520
Speaker 2: give me the Taffees five to one to round out

1122
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,399
Speaker 2: the Premier League slate for this week. That's a Monday

1123
00:52:58,440 --> 00:53:01,960
Speaker 2: night football game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. All right, let's

1124
00:53:01,960 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 2: move on to the Bundesliga real quick. Bj Do you

1125
00:53:05,239 --> 00:53:06,920
Speaker 2: have anything for us over in Germany?

1126
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:11,480
Speaker 1: Yeah? Stuttgart Bruce Ian Muchen Gladbach over three goals at

1127
00:53:11,600 --> 00:53:14,479
Speaker 1: plus one twenty. Both Stutgart and Gladbach are on really

1128
00:53:14,680 --> 00:53:16,960
Speaker 1: really bad runs right now. Stutgart is winless in their

1129
00:53:17,040 --> 00:53:19,959
Speaker 1: last nine matches, while Gladbach has only has two wins

1130
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 1: in their last thirteen. They somehow beat Byron Munich, but

1131
00:53:22,160 --> 00:53:24,320
Speaker 1: I'm still not mad about it. The biggest problem for

1132
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,719
Speaker 1: both of these clubs is at the defensive end of

1133
00:53:26,760 --> 00:53:30,320
Speaker 1: the pitch. During the nine match winless streak. For Stuttgart

1134
00:53:30,440 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 1: they've allowed to whopping sixteen point three expected goals and

1135
00:53:33,080 --> 00:53:36,160
Speaker 1: sixteen big scoring chances. On the flip side, Glodboc twenty

1136
00:53:36,200 --> 00:53:38,759
Speaker 1: five expected goals in their last thirteen matches, so not

1137
00:53:38,960 --> 00:53:41,920
Speaker 1: good for both these defenses. On the flip side, Glodbok

1138
00:53:42,000 --> 00:53:44,320
Speaker 1: is still i would say one of the better offenses

1139
00:53:44,360 --> 00:53:47,279
Speaker 1: in the Bundsligue, maybe still even in the top I'd

1140
00:53:47,320 --> 00:53:51,360
Speaker 1: say three or four. They're second in shots per ninety minutes,

1141
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,360
Speaker 1: which is big against Stutgart who is dead last, and

1142
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:55,720
Speaker 1: shots led per ninety and all of those shots are great,

1143
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:58,360
Speaker 1: but you know, Gladbach is point two to three x

1144
00:53:58,440 --> 00:54:00,279
Speaker 1: chieper shot, which is fifth in the BUNS. So it

1145
00:54:00,360 --> 00:54:03,120
Speaker 1: shows you that they're getting lost shots and they're gonna

1146
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:04,880
Speaker 1: lot high quality shots, so I think they should be

1147
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:06,120
Speaker 1: able to put at least one or two in the

1148
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,760
Speaker 1: back of the net on stut Gart. Stutgart, their offense

1149
00:54:08,800 --> 00:54:10,680
Speaker 1: has been trending in the right direction ever since they

1150
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:14,560
Speaker 1: got their best striker, Sasha Closetic back from injury in January.

1151
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:16,960
Speaker 1: He's only He's only played in about five matches this

1152
00:54:17,040 --> 00:54:19,600
Speaker 1: season and has created two expected goals, which is right

1153
00:54:19,680 --> 00:54:21,439
Speaker 1: on par where he was last season with a point

1154
00:54:21,480 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 1: four to seven actually for nine minute scoring rate over

1155
00:54:24,320 --> 00:54:27,040
Speaker 1: a full season. So with him back in the lineup,

1156
00:54:27,200 --> 00:54:29,960
Speaker 1: Stutgart averages a round point twenty five more expected goals

1157
00:54:30,760 --> 00:54:33,359
Speaker 1: than without him, So I have around three point two

1158
00:54:33,680 --> 00:54:35,520
Speaker 1: most projected so I like the price and over three

1159
00:54:35,560 --> 00:54:36,479
Speaker 1: goals at plus one twenty.

1160
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:36,719
Speaker 3: Oh.

1161
00:54:36,880 --> 00:54:38,960
Speaker 2: Next, I like mindes there plus two twenty at home

1162
00:54:39,000 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 2: against Dortmund. This is a Sunday nine thirty am kickoff.

1163
00:54:44,120 --> 00:54:45,160
Speaker 2: We love Mines on the show.

1164
00:54:45,200 --> 00:54:47,520
Speaker 3: This is also done with Dortmund.

1165
00:54:47,400 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 2: And this is a strangers strength matchup. Right, you're talking

1166
00:54:49,640 --> 00:54:51,560
Speaker 2: about an offense with Dortmund. We know what they can do,

1167
00:54:51,680 --> 00:54:56,120
Speaker 2: but Mines first in the Bundesliga and preventing big scoring chances,

1168
00:54:56,800 --> 00:54:59,440
Speaker 2: third and non penalty expected goals for ninety, fourth in

1169
00:54:59,440 --> 00:55:02,240
Speaker 2: shots against for ninety, third in box entries for ninety.

1170
00:55:02,280 --> 00:55:04,319
Speaker 2: So this is a defense that can hang with any

1171
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,400
Speaker 2: offense in the Bundesliga. And they're the expected points. They

1172
00:55:07,400 --> 00:55:09,800
Speaker 2: should have like four more. But this team, their results

1173
00:55:09,800 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 2: are so all over the place and you don't expect

1174
00:55:12,440 --> 00:55:15,360
Speaker 2: that out of a team that's defense is their strength.

1175
00:55:15,840 --> 00:55:17,800
Speaker 2: So it's interesting, but I do think that this is

1176
00:55:17,960 --> 00:55:20,279
Speaker 2: and once again a team to bet on as a

1177
00:55:20,320 --> 00:55:24,120
Speaker 2: season winds down in Germany. So yeah, give me both

1178
00:55:24,239 --> 00:55:28,200
Speaker 2: Fenceent's men plus two twenty against Dortmund, Anthony, what do

1179
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:28,759
Speaker 2: you have for us?

1180
00:55:28,960 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 3: So I had to go back and look at how

1181
00:55:30,120 --> 00:55:33,280
Speaker 3: many times I've actually bet on this German team this season.

1182
00:55:33,440 --> 00:55:35,800
Speaker 3: The answer after I put the bet in for this

1183
00:55:35,920 --> 00:55:39,680
Speaker 3: week four Bayern Munich minus one and a half at

1184
00:55:39,719 --> 00:55:43,120
Speaker 3: home against Bayer Leverkus and Bja's pumping his fist, we

1185
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 3: are hip and we are square. This week Byron led

1186
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 3: the first meeting five nil in thirty seven minutes, twenty

1187
00:55:50,960 --> 00:55:53,520
Speaker 3: seven shots to six. In that match, Byron beat them

1188
00:55:53,520 --> 00:55:55,120
Speaker 3: two nil at home. Last year they beat him two

1189
00:55:55,120 --> 00:55:58,279
Speaker 3: one away at Leverkusen beat him four to two both

1190
00:55:58,360 --> 00:56:00,800
Speaker 3: times in twenty twenty at the end after the pandemic

1191
00:56:01,200 --> 00:56:03,400
Speaker 3: when they came back. It's just not a good matchup

1192
00:56:03,400 --> 00:56:07,480
Speaker 3: for Leverracusen. Byron dominates the transitions better than anyone. Leverkusen's

1193
00:56:07,560 --> 00:56:10,759
Speaker 3: luck box probably runs out of batteries here as they

1194
00:56:10,800 --> 00:56:13,520
Speaker 3: step up in competition, and that's usually what's happened for

1195
00:56:13,600 --> 00:56:15,800
Speaker 3: them when they played against Byron. I just think that,

1196
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:18,040
Speaker 3: you know, we've talked about Levercuson. I don't have to

1197
00:56:18,080 --> 00:56:21,800
Speaker 3: get into it. Twenty five percent over expected over performance

1198
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:25,040
Speaker 3: going forward this season, and I look, is it square? Yeah?

1199
00:56:25,080 --> 00:56:27,279
Speaker 3: But I don't bet Byron often and I'm betting them here,

1200
00:56:27,640 --> 00:56:30,920
Speaker 3: so hopefully it's a beat down. And I think eventually

1201
00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:32,759
Speaker 3: things are gonna start clicking again for Byron. They've been

1202
00:56:32,800 --> 00:56:35,960
Speaker 3: a little flat for sure, no doubt about that. But

1203
00:56:36,000 --> 00:56:38,040
Speaker 3: I think things are gonna start clicking for them, and

1204
00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 3: hopefully that happens on Saturday and they beat up a

1205
00:56:42,040 --> 00:56:43,240
Speaker 3: pretty overrated Levercuson.

1206
00:56:43,480 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 1: I love to be square and I don't care he

1207
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:46,600
Speaker 1: loves to be square.

1208
00:56:46,840 --> 00:56:50,279
Speaker 2: So that's Mines and Iron Munich. Those are two one

1209
00:56:50,280 --> 00:56:51,879
Speaker 2: team that we bet on all the time on one

1210
00:56:51,920 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 2: team that we rarely bet on here. All right, let's

1211
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:58,080
Speaker 2: move on to Syria. Anthony, anything for you in Italy

1212
00:56:58,160 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 2: this weekend?

1213
00:56:58,719 --> 00:57:02,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna go with at home John o'bett minus

1214
00:57:02,239 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 3: one ten. I still feel this is a good by

1215
00:57:04,080 --> 00:57:07,800
Speaker 3: low spot. Even though Ghenoha has drawn five consecutive including

1216
00:57:07,840 --> 00:57:11,080
Speaker 3: their goals draw with Inter last Friday. They're the much

1217
00:57:11,120 --> 00:57:13,319
Speaker 3: more desperate team here. They're the much more motivated team

1218
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:16,000
Speaker 3: fighting off relegation. Empley is pretty safe in the mid table,

1219
00:57:16,360 --> 00:57:19,880
Speaker 3: not really having any issues. This Genoa attack has been very,

1220
00:57:19,960 --> 00:57:21,760
Speaker 3: very poor. They live twenty two goals all year, they

1221
00:57:21,840 --> 00:57:25,439
Speaker 3: live twenty six expected goals. But Emply is the spot

1222
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:27,440
Speaker 3: for them to finally get some goals and get right.

1223
00:57:27,480 --> 00:57:30,480
Speaker 3: I think Empley has major defensive issues. They conceded the

1224
00:57:30,600 --> 00:57:33,680
Speaker 3: second most expected goals and the second most goals in

1225
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,000
Speaker 3: the league. And I think Genoa is a little bit

1226
00:57:36,040 --> 00:57:38,520
Speaker 3: undervalued here. I make it minus one twenty five, So

1227
00:57:38,640 --> 00:57:41,800
Speaker 3: I like Genoa minus one ten John o bett at

1228
00:57:41,840 --> 00:57:43,480
Speaker 3: home against Emply beach it.

1229
00:57:43,880 --> 00:57:44,920
Speaker 2: What about you and Italy here?

1230
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:48,120
Speaker 1: Well, real quick on Emplie to add on to Anthony's point,

1231
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: Empley has the weirdest home road splits. I think I've

1232
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:53,200
Speaker 1: seen of any team around minus twelve expected gold inferential

1233
00:57:53,240 --> 00:57:54,960
Speaker 1: at home, but like plus two on the road. It's very,

1234
00:57:55,040 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 1: very weird. So Genoa playing them at home is obviously

1235
00:57:58,000 --> 00:57:59,760
Speaker 1: very a good spot for them. So I agree with you, Anthony.

1236
00:58:00,080 --> 00:58:02,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to go to the special one Jose Mourinho.

1237
00:58:02,320 --> 00:58:05,280
Speaker 1: His team is on an absolute tear right now. Last

1238
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:09,439
Speaker 1: seven matches plus ten expected goldenfront, which is the best

1239
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,240
Speaker 1: in Syria over that time span. They're due for so

1240
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 1: much positive aggression defensive weight it's not even funny. Last

1241
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:18,720
Speaker 1: seven matches twelve goals allowed off of five expected, which

1242
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 1: is just insane. Roma also the most efficient offense in

1243
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:26,240
Speaker 1: Syria A on set pieces. They have fourteen zero point

1244
00:58:26,320 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 1: eight expected goals and have scored fourteen of them. They're

1245
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 1: also number one in Syria A and x gaper shot

1246
00:58:31,320 --> 00:58:34,720
Speaker 1: at point three. They're playing Atlanta, who's coming off of

1247
00:58:34,760 --> 00:58:37,760
Speaker 1: four Niel drubbing of Sampdori on Monday. But they're due

1248
00:58:37,800 --> 00:58:40,760
Speaker 1: for some negative aggression. Last four matches in all competition

1249
00:58:41,520 --> 00:58:43,760
Speaker 1: nine goals scored off of three point one expected, so

1250
00:58:44,240 --> 00:58:47,440
Speaker 1: facing a Roma defense that's due for that much positive aggression.

1251
00:58:47,560 --> 00:58:49,640
Speaker 1: That's second in shots allowed per ninety and third in

1252
00:58:49,720 --> 00:58:54,040
Speaker 1: box entries allowed. It's a perfect statistical regression storm for

1253
00:58:54,200 --> 00:58:57,680
Speaker 1: Jose Mourinho. So give me Roma draw no bet at minus.

1254
00:58:57,440 --> 00:59:00,720
Speaker 2: One five anti La Liga. Now, Anthony, what's your favorite

1255
00:59:00,720 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 2: bett spein.

1256
00:59:01,360 --> 00:59:03,560
Speaker 3: So bj took my pick, which was going to be

1257
00:59:03,680 --> 00:59:08,280
Speaker 3: at Lettie, but I'm going with Gatafe plus a half

1258
00:59:08,480 --> 00:59:11,800
Speaker 3: minus one thirty five on the road. I make this

1259
00:59:11,920 --> 00:59:15,320
Speaker 3: a toss up. This is two even teams, slight leaning

1260
00:59:15,360 --> 00:59:17,920
Speaker 3: toward Espanol being at home, but not good enough to

1261
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:20,400
Speaker 3: get to the number. It's a super low total. It's

1262
00:59:20,440 --> 00:59:23,360
Speaker 3: a Catafe match, there's never any goals. But this Espaniol

1263
00:59:23,440 --> 00:59:25,320
Speaker 3: defense is so bad. Their bottom of the league and

1264
00:59:25,360 --> 00:59:28,320
Speaker 3: nearly every category, bottom two in the league, and they

1265
00:59:28,400 --> 00:59:30,000
Speaker 3: have been riding their luck a little bit, although you

1266
00:59:30,040 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 3: can't say that quite as much after they con seeded

1267
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:34,560
Speaker 3: five to v Real last weekend. Katave just gets one.

1268
00:59:34,760 --> 00:59:36,880
Speaker 3: I think we're in the clear here. I think their

1269
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:39,800
Speaker 3: defense is more than good enough. Their fifth and expected

1270
00:59:39,840 --> 00:59:42,400
Speaker 3: goals allowed, ninth in box entries top six, and shots

1271
00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:44,560
Speaker 3: big chances a lot. This is a legitimately good defense.

1272
00:59:44,840 --> 00:59:46,840
Speaker 3: Good underdog team. They can't get margin ever, but they

1273
00:59:46,840 --> 00:59:48,240
Speaker 3: don't need to win this. We just need a draw.

1274
00:59:48,480 --> 00:59:51,000
Speaker 3: So hopefully we get one of those good Gatafe draws,

1275
00:59:51,280 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 3: and I'm taking them plus a half.

1276
00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:56,000
Speaker 2: Here, all right, BJ Anthony spoiled it. But let us

1277
00:59:56,080 --> 00:59:58,040
Speaker 2: know what you like. Diego Simone's ben well.

1278
00:59:58,080 --> 01:00:00,880
Speaker 1: I always like Diego Simione's been I've been very consistent

1279
01:00:01,160 --> 01:00:04,439
Speaker 1: about that on this podcast. Unlike some people they're playing.

1280
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:06,800
Speaker 1: Real Bettis, who we've talked about nauseam, is just so

1281
01:00:07,120 --> 01:00:11,160
Speaker 1: overvalued it's not even it's not even funny at this point. Offensively,

1282
01:00:11,240 --> 01:00:13,480
Speaker 1: the season, forty eight goals scored off of thirty nine

1283
01:00:13,520 --> 01:00:16,560
Speaker 1: point four expected In fact, in their last eight matches

1284
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:19,320
Speaker 1: they've scored eighteen goals off of eleven expected goles. So

1285
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:22,000
Speaker 1: offensive aggression is going to come, and when you're facing

1286
01:00:22,040 --> 01:00:24,919
Speaker 1: the best defense in Spain, it's most likely going to happen.

1287
01:00:25,920 --> 01:00:28,920
Speaker 1: But what's most concerning about Real Bettis is, yes, they're

1288
01:00:28,920 --> 01:00:31,280
Speaker 1: in third place in La Ligo, but they have been

1289
01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:34,600
Speaker 1: so bad against the top teams in Spain. In nine

1290
01:00:34,640 --> 01:00:39,040
Speaker 1: matches against Real Madrid, Barcelona, Sevilla, Athletico Real associated Ad

1291
01:00:39,080 --> 01:00:41,439
Speaker 1: and Via Real Rial Bettis has a minus six point

1292
01:00:41,480 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 1: six expected goal differential, not only averaging point five to

1293
01:00:44,080 --> 01:00:46,600
Speaker 1: seven expected goals for match against the rest of the table,

1294
01:00:46,640 --> 01:00:48,360
Speaker 1: they're averaging over two expected goals and they have a

1295
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:51,760
Speaker 1: plus fourteen expected goals frenial. Athletico is in a huge

1296
01:00:51,800 --> 01:00:53,919
Speaker 1: battle for the top four right now. They're one point

1297
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:58,560
Speaker 1: behind Real Bettis and so this match is really really

1298
01:00:58,680 --> 01:01:02,800
Speaker 1: massive lego top four race because if the Athletico wins,

1299
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:05,400
Speaker 1: they're gonna leap frog Bettes. So, like I already mentioned,

1300
01:01:05,480 --> 01:01:08,200
Speaker 1: Athletico's defense point eight seven x G per match, allout

1301
01:01:08,280 --> 01:01:10,480
Speaker 1: best in La Liga, number one. Pretty much every single

1302
01:01:10,560 --> 01:01:14,120
Speaker 1: defensive category. Offense has been improving as well, ten point

1303
01:01:14,160 --> 01:01:17,400
Speaker 1: two expected goals in the last seven matches. The real

1304
01:01:17,480 --> 01:01:20,440
Speaker 1: Best defense is pretty honestly pretty bad. They give up

1305
01:01:20,440 --> 01:01:22,640
Speaker 1: a ton of high quality chances. It's the reason why

1306
01:01:22,640 --> 01:01:25,680
Speaker 1: they're thirteenth and non penalty expectables allowed thirty four big

1307
01:01:25,720 --> 01:01:28,280
Speaker 1: scoring chances allowed in twenty six matches, which is fifteenth

1308
01:01:28,680 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 1: in Spain. And Athletico completely dominated them in the first meeting,

1309
01:01:32,320 --> 01:01:35,120
Speaker 1: just thrashed them three nothing and one on XG pretty comfortably.

1310
01:01:35,240 --> 01:01:38,080
Speaker 1: So I have Athletico projected a round and even money

1311
01:01:38,160 --> 01:01:39,880
Speaker 1: even money favorite on the road, So I love John

1312
01:01:39,920 --> 01:01:41,439
Speaker 1: O Betts at minus one.

1313
01:01:41,400 --> 01:01:44,040
Speaker 2: Thirty All right, real quick league. Oh, I know you

1314
01:01:44,080 --> 01:01:46,480
Speaker 2: both have a bet there before we get to our underdogs.

1315
01:01:46,520 --> 01:01:49,880
Speaker 2: So BJ thirty seconds here on your favorite league in

1316
01:01:49,960 --> 01:01:50,360
Speaker 2: the world.

1317
01:01:51,040 --> 01:01:55,680
Speaker 1: Yes, Lorient Leone Friday afternoon at three pm Eastern. Lorient

1318
01:01:56,240 --> 01:01:58,439
Speaker 1: is in the currently in the relegation battle, but they're

1319
01:01:58,440 --> 01:02:01,800
Speaker 1: a very highly underrated team minus eighteen actual world differential

1320
01:02:01,920 --> 01:02:06,400
Speaker 1: versus only a minus four point three expected gold differential Leone. Yes,

1321
01:02:06,480 --> 01:02:09,360
Speaker 1: they've been improving, but their defense is still fifteenth and

1322
01:02:09,440 --> 01:02:12,360
Speaker 1: Leon they're gonna be without their best defender, most likely

1323
01:02:12,440 --> 01:02:14,560
Speaker 1: Jason Denier. And the home road splits for Layon are

1324
01:02:14,600 --> 01:02:17,680
Speaker 1: quite shocking plus fifteen expected Golden frenchal at home versus

1325
01:02:17,800 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 1: minus six point seven expected gold Frie on the road,

1326
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:21,919
Speaker 1: and they're lying close to two expected goals for match

1327
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 1: away from home. So with Lorients improved performances, I think

1328
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:28,040
Speaker 1: they're due for a lot of positive aggressions. So I

1329
01:02:28,160 --> 01:02:30,560
Speaker 1: like them plus half a goal at plus one all five.

1330
01:02:30,600 --> 01:02:33,560
Speaker 3: And Anthony and not Montpellier under two and a half

1331
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:37,000
Speaker 3: minus one thirty two biggest overachievers in France playing each

1332
01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:40,000
Speaker 3: other on the same weekend. It's just beautiful. Seventy five

1333
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:43,240
Speaker 3: goals from fifty eight expected for these two teams combined.

1334
01:02:43,760 --> 01:02:46,720
Speaker 3: Both do for some regression and happy to take an under.

1335
01:02:47,280 --> 01:02:51,280
Speaker 3: Last week's lean of the Week pushed, so we're you know,

1336
01:02:51,360 --> 01:02:53,360
Speaker 3: I don't go a ton into France, but this is

1337
01:02:53,400 --> 01:02:54,680
Speaker 3: one I will definitely be betting.

1338
01:02:54,800 --> 01:02:57,840
Speaker 2: All right, let's give out our favorite underdogs for the

1339
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:01,360
Speaker 2: week now, Anthony was, are with you your favorite pooch?

1340
01:03:01,760 --> 01:03:03,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a team I've been really high on all year.

1341
01:03:03,520 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 3: Crystal Palace plus two thirty five on the money line

1342
01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:10,200
Speaker 3: at Wolves. The Wolves luck box has been impressive. They've

1343
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:12,520
Speaker 3: They've had a great little run here, but I think

1344
01:03:12,520 --> 01:03:14,040
Speaker 3: they're starting to come back down to earth. They've now

1345
01:03:14,080 --> 01:03:15,560
Speaker 3: lost to in a row. I think they're going to

1346
01:03:15,600 --> 01:03:18,400
Speaker 3: continue to lose. They're a little bit overvalued as a favorite.

1347
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:20,920
Speaker 3: They shouldn't be this much of a favorite against a

1348
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 3: Palace team that has better underlying numbers over the course

1349
01:03:23,520 --> 01:03:26,480
Speaker 3: of the season. Wolves defense very lucky, will not be

1350
01:03:26,640 --> 01:03:29,480
Speaker 3: lucky forever up The Eagles Fly. Eagles Fly.

1351
01:03:29,840 --> 01:03:33,120
Speaker 2: I like Everton Monday Night football at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

1352
01:03:33,120 --> 01:03:35,720
Speaker 2: They're five to one. I think that you're just beating

1353
01:03:35,760 --> 01:03:39,080
Speaker 2: the market to evidence improvement. Under Frank Lampard, he did

1354
01:03:39,560 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 2: adjust the team tactically by sticking a third man in

1355
01:03:42,240 --> 01:03:45,720
Speaker 2: the midfield. That switch paid immediate dividends against Manchester City

1356
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:49,080
Speaker 2: in a tough luck loss for the Topees at Goodison Park. Plus,

1357
01:03:49,280 --> 01:03:52,120
Speaker 2: Tottenham's defense has been pretty leaky nine point three seven

1358
01:03:52,160 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 2: expected goles allowed since February first. That's one and one

1359
01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:58,760
Speaker 2: point seven to four expectacles allowed per match since in

1360
01:03:58,840 --> 01:04:02,760
Speaker 2: their last five. So you're getting to the evident improvement

1361
01:04:02,880 --> 01:04:05,080
Speaker 2: before the market catches on to it. So I think

1362
01:04:05,160 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 2: five to one even on the road against a good

1363
01:04:07,720 --> 01:04:11,560
Speaker 2: team like Tottenham is worth the punt BJ close.

1364
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:15,720
Speaker 1: It out Agiliari plus two sixty five at home against Latzio.

1365
01:04:16,360 --> 01:04:19,080
Speaker 1: Cagliari has made a pretty nice run to pull themselves

1366
01:04:19,120 --> 01:04:21,280
Speaker 1: out of the relegation fight. Beat out of Lotts on

1367
01:04:21,320 --> 01:04:24,160
Speaker 1: the road to to one, drew against Stempoli on the road,

1368
01:04:24,440 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 1: drew with Napoli at home one on XG, and then

1369
01:04:26,840 --> 01:04:29,120
Speaker 1: beat Torino on the road and one on XG pretty

1370
01:04:29,120 --> 01:04:32,040
Speaker 1: comfortably this past weekend. So pretty impressive performances for them.

1371
01:04:32,320 --> 01:04:34,080
Speaker 1: Now they get another chance to take down another big

1372
01:04:34,120 --> 01:04:36,840
Speaker 1: boy and one of our favorite teams on this podcast, Latsio.

1373
01:04:37,280 --> 01:04:39,800
Speaker 1: I mentioned it last week, but just the crazy overperformance

1374
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:42,240
Speaker 1: has got to stop at some point. Fifty four goals

1375
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:45,920
Speaker 1: off of thirty six point seven expected goals. They're basically

1376
01:04:46,720 --> 01:04:49,520
Speaker 1: entirely relying on big scoring chances fifteenth and shots perini

1377
01:04:49,560 --> 01:04:52,360
Speaker 1: but second and big scoring chances. Kagliari has been pretty

1378
01:04:52,360 --> 01:04:55,160
Speaker 1: good defensively over the last seven matches, only four big

1379
01:04:55,240 --> 01:04:57,640
Speaker 1: scoring chances allowed. The funny thing about Latsio and this

1380
01:04:57,800 --> 01:05:00,600
Speaker 1: just kind of extends how lucky they are. Even lucky

1381
01:05:00,640 --> 01:05:03,560
Speaker 1: in terms of their pressing they're fifteenth, and passes per

1382
01:05:03,600 --> 01:05:06,240
Speaker 1: defensive action they're dead last, and ball recoveries they're tenth

1383
01:05:06,640 --> 01:05:10,120
Speaker 1: in high turnovers, but somehow they've scored nine goals off

1384
01:05:10,160 --> 01:05:12,440
Speaker 1: of high turnover, which is the most in SERIOA. So

1385
01:05:12,520 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 1: it's just it's really funny how how lucky they've been,

1386
01:05:15,120 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 1: and it's got to stop at some point. So for

1387
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:19,280
Speaker 1: a Kagilar team that's really trending in the right direction,

1388
01:05:20,160 --> 01:05:22,400
Speaker 1: I'm looking forward to watching them blowing another two goal

1389
01:05:22,520 --> 01:05:23,960
Speaker 1: lead at plus two sixty five at home.

1390
01:05:24,600 --> 01:05:26,480
Speaker 2: On that note, we will move on to our favorite

1391
01:05:26,520 --> 01:05:30,800
Speaker 2: Premier League bets for the weekend. BJ let's go right

1392
01:05:30,840 --> 01:05:32,680
Speaker 2: back to you your favorite EPL bet.

1393
01:05:33,160 --> 01:05:35,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, Brentford drohn o Bett and minus one twenty five

1394
01:05:35,800 --> 01:05:38,240
Speaker 1: on the road against Norwich. Look, I think we've said

1395
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:40,440
Speaker 1: it four weeks in a row now, but I truly

1396
01:05:40,520 --> 01:05:42,800
Speaker 1: think we've reached the bottom of the market on Brentford

1397
01:05:42,880 --> 01:05:45,440
Speaker 1: barely being favored over the worst Premier League team on

1398
01:05:45,560 --> 01:05:49,440
Speaker 1: the road. They have not been playing great, they're eight

1399
01:05:49,520 --> 01:05:53,880
Speaker 1: losses in their last nine matches, but the underlying performances

1400
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:56,160
Speaker 1: have been a bit better than what they've shown Obviously.

1401
01:05:56,240 --> 01:05:58,160
Speaker 1: This past weekend they got a red card in the

1402
01:05:58,160 --> 01:06:00,680
Speaker 1: twelfth minute against Newcastle, so basically throw out the window

1403
01:06:00,920 --> 01:06:03,640
Speaker 1: over their previous seven matches before that. They i got

1404
01:06:03,680 --> 01:06:06,320
Speaker 1: outscored by their opponents sixteen to four, but the expected

1405
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:08,320
Speaker 1: goals was only eleven point two to seven point five,

1406
01:06:08,440 --> 01:06:10,720
Speaker 1: So the performances are not as bad as they seem,

1407
01:06:10,760 --> 01:06:14,440
Speaker 1: and they're taking on a Norwich team that is just horrific. Yes,

1408
01:06:14,480 --> 01:06:17,560
Speaker 1: they're not as bad as their minus forty four actual

1409
01:06:17,600 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 1: goal differential, but a minus one point zero six expected

1410
01:06:20,120 --> 01:06:23,760
Speaker 1: gold differential per ninety minute signals a really really bad squad,

1411
01:06:23,760 --> 01:06:26,200
Speaker 1: and even over their last eleven matches, they've only created

1412
01:06:26,280 --> 01:06:29,000
Speaker 1: six point six expected goals and allowed twenty two point five.

1413
01:06:29,280 --> 01:06:31,360
Speaker 1: This is also a revenge spot for Brentford, who lost

1414
01:06:31,400 --> 01:06:34,200
Speaker 1: to Norwich at the Brentford Communities Stame earlier in this season.

1415
01:06:34,920 --> 01:06:37,480
Speaker 1: Despite winning on expected goals two point two to one

1416
01:06:37,520 --> 01:06:39,480
Speaker 1: point four, Norwich walked play with a two to one wins.

1417
01:06:39,560 --> 01:06:42,520
Speaker 1: So this is a good spot for Brentford to finally

1418
01:06:42,880 --> 01:06:44,600
Speaker 1: end this losing streak against the worst team in the

1419
01:06:44,640 --> 01:06:46,720
Speaker 1: Premier League. So give me the Bees draw. No bet

1420
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:48,200
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty five for me.

1421
01:06:48,600 --> 01:06:51,600
Speaker 2: I like Burnley team total over half a goal minus

1422
01:06:51,640 --> 01:06:53,680
Speaker 2: one ten right now they're taking on Chelsea. I don't

1423
01:06:53,760 --> 01:06:56,320
Speaker 2: mind a little sprinkle on the money line, but in

1424
01:06:56,440 --> 01:06:58,400
Speaker 2: terms of a best bet, it's kind of hard to

1425
01:06:58,440 --> 01:07:01,840
Speaker 2: give that one out. We talk Chelsea's weird schedule. It's

1426
01:07:01,880 --> 01:07:03,320
Speaker 2: going to catch up to them at some point. They

1427
01:07:03,400 --> 01:07:05,760
Speaker 2: just played an FA Cup match in the midweek. Before that,

1428
01:07:05,800 --> 01:07:08,240
Speaker 2: they played in a League Cup final at Wembley. Before that,

1429
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:10,400
Speaker 2: they played little in a Champions League match. Before that,

1430
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:12,080
Speaker 2: they played in the FIFA Club World Cup in the

1431
01:07:12,160 --> 01:07:14,560
Speaker 2: Middle East. There just can't be that much left in

1432
01:07:14,680 --> 01:07:16,800
Speaker 2: the tank and a trip to turf More is probably

1433
01:07:16,840 --> 01:07:19,600
Speaker 2: the worst possible outcome for a team in this kind

1434
01:07:19,680 --> 01:07:23,080
Speaker 2: of crazy schedule, as hopefully there will be rain and

1435
01:07:23,200 --> 01:07:26,840
Speaker 2: win in Lancashire and Burnley will just make that a

1436
01:07:27,160 --> 01:07:31,720
Speaker 2: absolute horror show for Chelsea. And in addition, the Burnley

1437
01:07:31,760 --> 01:07:33,960
Speaker 2: offense has not been terrible lately there first of all,

1438
01:07:34,040 --> 01:07:36,800
Speaker 2: as a team two one and one win draw loss

1439
01:07:36,800 --> 01:07:38,760
Speaker 2: over their last four matches in the Premier League, and

1440
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:42,200
Speaker 2: they've created over one expected goal two of those four matches,

1441
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:43,840
Speaker 2: which is saying a lot for Burnley, and they came

1442
01:07:43,880 --> 01:07:46,760
Speaker 2: close to one in a three zero win over Brighton.

1443
01:07:46,840 --> 01:07:49,480
Speaker 2: So this is a good opportunity to buy on Burnley.

1444
01:07:49,520 --> 01:07:51,640
Speaker 2: I think they should get on the board against a

1445
01:07:51,880 --> 01:07:55,320
Speaker 2: Chelsea defense that is not as good as the numbers suggest.

1446
01:07:55,520 --> 01:07:58,520
Speaker 2: So I'll take Burnley team total over half a goal

1447
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:00,800
Speaker 2: minus one ten, Anthony, what do you have.

1448
01:08:01,240 --> 01:08:04,360
Speaker 3: Brighton drawn Nobett on the road at Newcastle minus one

1449
01:08:04,440 --> 01:08:06,920
Speaker 3: oh five. It's been a while since I've backed our seagals,

1450
01:08:07,160 --> 01:08:08,920
Speaker 3: and our seagals have not been playing well and I

1451
01:08:08,960 --> 01:08:10,919
Speaker 3: think that's the reason this line has gotten so cheap.

1452
01:08:11,160 --> 01:08:13,800
Speaker 3: They've lost their last three Premier League matches, They've lost

1453
01:08:13,840 --> 01:08:15,480
Speaker 3: a Man United, there was a red card in there.

1454
01:08:15,800 --> 01:08:19,360
Speaker 3: They had a very flat consecutive performances against both Burnley

1455
01:08:19,640 --> 01:08:23,040
Speaker 3: and Villa at home, pretty concerning, but overall it hasn't

1456
01:08:23,080 --> 01:08:24,640
Speaker 3: been quite as bad as I think the narrative is

1457
01:08:24,640 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 3: getting now. They conceded five goals in those last two

1458
01:08:27,400 --> 01:08:30,200
Speaker 3: matches from just two expected goals. The attack has been

1459
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:33,720
Speaker 3: struggling to create chances, but Newcastle's defense has been a

1460
01:08:33,760 --> 01:08:36,240
Speaker 3: little bit overvalued. Hasn't played a lot of big name

1461
01:08:36,360 --> 01:08:38,679
Speaker 3: teams or good attacking teams, so I think there could

1462
01:08:38,720 --> 01:08:42,040
Speaker 3: be some sell high here on Newcastle Newcastle winning four

1463
01:08:42,160 --> 01:08:46,040
Speaker 3: of their last five matches. The reality is since December thirtieth,

1464
01:08:46,240 --> 01:08:48,040
Speaker 3: Newcastle's had their best month of the season, and you

1465
01:08:48,080 --> 01:08:51,320
Speaker 3: could argue Brighton has had their worst, and yet Newcastle

1466
01:08:51,400 --> 01:08:53,400
Speaker 3: still has a worst expected goal difference in the last

1467
01:08:53,600 --> 01:08:56,960
Speaker 3: month and a half two months than the Seagals here.

1468
01:08:57,040 --> 01:08:58,840
Speaker 3: So you really, even when you're at the bottom of

1469
01:08:58,880 --> 01:09:01,280
Speaker 3: the market, the Seagulls are better team and I think

1470
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:03,679
Speaker 3: a drawna bet at minus one oh five. I'm happy

1471
01:09:03,760 --> 01:09:06,320
Speaker 3: to take them here and bank on their return to form.

1472
01:09:06,520 --> 01:09:09,439
Speaker 2: All Right, that wraps up another episode of Wonderful It

1473
01:09:09,439 --> 01:09:11,560
Speaker 2: should be a fun week around the Premier League and

1474
01:09:11,640 --> 01:09:13,400
Speaker 2: the rest of Europe and we will see you guys

1475
01:09:13,760 --> 01:09:16,439
Speaker 2: again on Monday morning to talk to some Champions League

1476
01:09:16,479 --> 01:09:18,920
Speaker 2: so best of luck on all your bests this weekend.